Vivendi SE (EPA:VIV)
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Jul 25, 2024

Operator

Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the Vivendi Half Year 2024 Earnings Presentation. This conference call will be hosted by Mr. Arnaud de Puyfontaine, Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, and Mr. François Laroze, Member of the Management Board and CFO. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. During the call, you'll be on listen only. However, later on the call, during the Q&A session, analysts will have the opportunity to ask questions without any follow-up questions. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question at any time. If at any point you require assistance, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Arnaud de Puyfontaine. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.

Arnaud de Puyfontaine
CEO, Vivendi

Thank you very much, and hello everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining us for the Vivendi 2024 first half earnings presentation. Before handing over to François, I would like to highlight the robustness of our results. With excellent revenues of EUR 9 billion, up 5.8% at constant currency and perimeter. Our EBITDA also increased significantly, plus 13.5% at constant currency and perimeter. This performance confirms our group's momentum. It places our entities in the best possible position to embark on the next chapter in our history. First, Canal+. All of its segments are growing. Meanwhile, Canal+ has recently made significant moves, pushing its international expansion one step further. In June, the group increased its stakes in Viu, Asia's leading streaming platform, now owning 36.8% of the group.

In the same month, it launched the mandatory offer for the MultiChoice Group shares not already owned. Africa and Asia are two decisive regions for achieving a real change of dimension, which would open up exciting prospects for Canal+ Group, if and when listed. Second, Havas. While continuing to experience solid performance, strong commercial and creative activity, as well as dynamic external growth, the group has launched a new strategic plan named Converged. A lot has already been done under the leadership of Yannick Bolloré to better integrate teams and expertise. This new plan will take the group even further. Converged involves the launch of an operating system and major investments in technology, data, and AI, which would represent EUR 400 million over the next four years, EUR 400 million investment.

This announcement, made in Cannes a few weeks ago, has been extremely well received by the entire ecosystem. The solution has already been implemented by a number of clients, and initial feedback has been very positive. More than ever, Havas is home of creativity powered by technology. Third, Lagardère and Prisma Media. The Lagardère Group just published excellent results, posting double-digit growth. The group's two main divisions, Lagardère Travel Retail and Lagardère Publishing, are well positioned to capitalize on further growth opportunities. Today, the group, led by Arnaud Lagardère, is stronger than ever, and the transfer of the majority stake held by Vivendi in the Lagardère Group, along with Prisma Media, to a new company called Louis Hachette Group, would enable the company to continue its growth dynamic and ensure its long-term influence, both in France and internationally.

Prisma Media would also open up an exciting new chapter by joining Louis Hachette Group. The group would have the opportunity to innovate and develop by drawing on its publishing, travel, retail and media business. The last few months, I've demonstrated Prisma robustness under the leadership of Claire Léost. The company has proved its ability to navigate effectively in a complicated print market by acquiring or launching new titles, such as the design and lifestyle magazine, IDEAT and The Good Life. It has also demonstrated its capacity to embrace new business segments. For example, digital affiliation activities and advertising revenues on social networks have grown by more than 10% compared to the first half of 2023.

Lastly, Vivendi will pursue its mission of developing and transforming Gameloft, as it did during the first semester, combining a clear cross-platform strategy, a stronger focus on a few high-potential franchises, and better cost management. All in all, our business has once again demonstrated their solidity in recent months. More than ever, they are ready to be independent, to go public, and to seize all of the opportunities that this new chapter could offer them. As you have seen this week, on Monday, we gave an important update on the feasibility study of the split project. The study has confirmed the feasibility and the satisfactory conditions of the project, the launch of preparatory work for its implementation, and has identified the most suitable listing venues for the transactions.

For Canal+, the choice of the London Stock Exchange as a potential listing venue reflects the international dimension of the group with Dailymotion, GVA, and the ongoing MultiChoice acquisition. Havas would be listed on the Euronext Amsterdam Stock Exchange, a market which would enable the group to stabilize its share capital, ensuring its sustainability for its talents and clients. It also reflects the group's global exposure, with the majority of its activities being carried out internationally. Louis Hachette Group would be listed on the Euronext Growth in Paris, consistent with the continued listing of its subsidiary, Lagardère SA, on the regulated market of Euronext Paris. It is important to emphasize that the three companies would keep the decision-making center and their activities, as well as their operational team and tax residency in France.

As for Vivendi, it would remain the leading player within the creative and development industry, listed on the regulated market of Euronext Paris. In line with the strategic plan aimed at enabling the group's different businesses to seize investment opportunities, post-split, Canal+ and Havas would have virtually zero net debt, with the exception of the debt put in place by Canal+ for the MultiChoice public tender offer. Louis Hachette Group would have no debt of its own, except Lagardère's debt of approximately EUR 2 billion, which has recently been refinanced. Following the split, Vivendi could have a net debt of around EUR 1.5 billion-EUR 2 billion. Concerning the timeline, the relevant employee representative bodies are now being consulted and informed starting this week.

This consultation, as well as other important steps, including a shareholder vote, must be carried out before the project can be implemented, which could take place by the end of the year. Once listed on the stock market, our businesses would benefit from stronger visibility within their markets, with clients and partners and with investors, as well as from an increased agility to carry out external growth transaction. The share price performance since the announcement of the study of the split project in December, +20%, is the best illustration of the project's relevance. The share price has decreased today, but this is due to the market's overreaction to Universal Music Group's Q2 results. We are fully aligned with Lucian Grainge's vision for the company's significant growth prospect for the medium and long term. Exciting times lie ahead for Vivendi.

We are looking forward to the next milestones of our split project. Thank you for your attention, and now, let me hand over to François.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Thank you, Arnaud. Now I will walk you through the first half performance of the Vivendi Group. As Arnaud said, we have a very sound figures for this first half. Let's remind you that for the first time we are consolidating the Lagardère Group for the six months of the first half, and compared with 0 months last year, first half, which explained the evolution in growth figures of the revenues and the EBITDA. That's why we focus more on the organic growth restating the perimeter impact, and you see that the revenue went up by 5.8% for the first half, which is a very positive figures. Same for the EBITDA, which is up by 12.7%.

In the same time, our adjusted net income went up by 1.5%, and the net earning group shares down by 8.3% to EUR 159 million, mainly due to the settlement of a very old, 24 years old litigation for EUR 95 million. If we have a look at our financial situation, it's still very solid, with a share shareholders' equity of EUR 16.9 billion and a net debt of EUR 3.9 billion. The cash flow from operation has been solid as well from our business with EUR 160 million during the first half, and we still have EUR 2.9 billion of available credit facilities. If we focus on the H1 revenues, you see that the all our main three business units, Canal+, Lagardère and Havas, are delivering very positive, revenue.

4.6 evolution on Canal+, 10.1 on Lagardère, and Havas, 3.6% in growth figures and 0.3% in organic. The other business units have done roughly at the same level than the previous half. Let's also focus on currency impacts, which are slightly zero, with 0.8 points of impact of the currency impact during this first half. The second quarter has been in the same trend, even accelerating a little bit compared with the first quarter, as we have reached 6.1% for the second quarter, and with the same positive trend on our three main business units, Canal+ for +5%, Lagardère 11, and Havas 1.4 in growth figures, -2.3 in organic.

If we look at the EBITDA, it's 12.7% increase for our control business, and if we had the UMG impact, it's 13.5%. Canal+ very solid at EUR 337 million, stable. Lagardère up by 65% to EUR 200 million, and Havas increasing by 6% compared with last year at EUR 125 million. Let's have a rapid look at the UMG result, even if you have all seen the evolution of stock price during of this Thursday. Nevertheless, the figures in terms of consolidating earnings have been very solid. The net earning group share went up from EUR 625 million- EUR 914 million.

As we restate the stock price impact on the figures, what we compute in Vivendi is a net profit of EUR 485 million, compared with EUR 393 million, and it's an increase from EUR 39 million- EUR 48 million, if we take the 10% of Vivendi's stake in UMG. The net income, we have already commented revenues and EBITDA, and then when we go down to the earnings attributable to Vivendi shareholders, we see this decrease by 8.3%, which is mainly due, as I said, to the settlement agreement with the institutional investors. As I said earlier, 24-year-old litigation, which is now ended.

If we look at the adjusted net income, which reflects our recurring result, we see it's going up by 1.5% compared with last year to EUR 329 million. If we have a look at our financial net debt evolution, it went from EUR 2.8 billion at the end of the previous year to EUR 3.9 billion at the end of the first half. It's an increase by EUR 1.1 billion. Important to point out that the increase mainly come from investment that we did in many stocks among which MultiChoice, Viaplay, and Viu by Canal+, but also others, which has achieved many bolt-on acquisition.

Lagardère, in which we have increased our stake, acquiring EUR 120 million of shares during this first half, but also the share buyback, which we have achieved for EUR 151.55 million. So if we add all these investments, it's roughly EUR 1 billion of new investment, which explain the evolution of the net debt, knowing that in the same times, the different business unit have delivered some cash flows, EUR 1.02 billion, and we have also realized the disposal of the festival and ticketing operation for EUR 0.3 billion. This EUR 3.9 billion net debt comes from EUR 1.6 billion to Vivendi legacy business and EUR 2.2 billion from Lagardère business.

And we have the ambition to reduce this net debt before the end of the year, both in Lagardère and Vivendi. If we look at our portfolio asset, no major evolution compared with the previous presentation in terms of stock percentage. We're still exactly at the same level as during our previous communication for Universal,PRISA and the other. The total value of our asset was EUR 8.4 billion at the end of June. As you know, we have suffered today the strong impact on our UMG stake, which is at the moment we peak roughly EUR 1.2 billion below the one at the end of June 2024. And we have received EUR 105 million of dividend from these different stakes during the first half.

Canal+, as Arnaud said, has done very well in terms of revenues. All the business units have largely contributed, from international to StudioCanal, including Mainland France, with the increase of the subscriber base and very profitable operation for StudioCanal, with among which the Back to Black movie. In terms of subscriber base, we went up from 25.1 at the end of June 2023, to 25.7, out of which 18.9 come self-distributed, and this positive trend can be shown in all the geographies, including France, to 1.5, Europe, 16.2, and Africa, 7.6.

The main events of the Canal+ Group with the acquisition of OCS and Orange Studio, the distribution agreement, which has been signed with one of both, and the extension of the broadcasting right for Rugby Top 14 and Pro D2 in France. Concerning the different stake, you know that now we have a 45.2% stake in MultiChoice since May 16. 36.8% stake in Viu after a new share capital increase in June 2021. And we are now the first shareholder of Viaplay, with a 29.3% stake in this Nordics operation. Arnaud Lagardère commented, "All the business units have done very well." You may have seen the presentation two days ago, but this first half was extremely solid in terms of revenue and EBIT evolution.

For Havas, again, a very positive evolution of the EBITDA, which is up by 6% from EUR 118 to EUR 125. The organic growth is stable during this first half, with a positive Q1 and negative Q2. The main evolution of the organic comes from the partial loss of a big client in the U.S., and the reduction of COVID vaccines by main label, which are our Havas clients. That explained the evolution of the North America organic performance during the first half, which is negative by 6.5%, knowing that this client was mainly based in the U.S. But in the same time, Europe has delivered 3.8% of positive organic growth. Latin America still accelerating at 8.8%, and Asia Pacific was up by 0.5%....

Beyond Converged that Arnaud has already commented, let's tell you that we are, Havas is still working on bolt-on acquisitions and have finalized four of them during the first half, being one of the most active networks of the industry. Two in the U.K., Ledger Bennett and Wilderness. One in France, called TED, and a fourth in Middle East called Liquid. Prisma Media has quite positive figures in terms of revenue from EUR 163 million- EUR 147 million, has been able to mitigate the negative impact of the disposal of Gala. By new launches, Bazaar, soon, Bazaar Interiors, as well, and by some acquisition in 2023, MilK digital side and MilK.

But also in the beginning of the year, 2024, the evolution of the EBITDA is negative because today the new launches and the acquisition are not as profitable as Gala was. And the ambition of Prisma management is to reach this level of profitability in the coming half. Gameloft is still negative is half. Two important things to point out. First one, that it includes some restructuring costs to reduce the cost base of Gameloft all over the world. And the second, it does, Gameloft makes most of its profit during the second half, and so the performance of the first half must not be projected on the second. It will be strongly better for the second half. Dailymotion and GVA have done very well, well with a growth of 39% of the cumulative operation.

Both industries have done well. Dailymotion is a real success with the new launch, which has been proceeded in 2023, and GVA is keep on increasing all these businesses in these, now eight countries and soon, nine countries opening before the end of the year. So that's what we can rapidly sum up for this first half. And we are with Arnaud now at your disposal to answer your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question today, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. That is star one for your questions today. First up, we have Adrien de Saint Hilaire from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Adrien de Saint Hilaire
Director of Head of European Media research, Bank of America

Yes, good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. So, three of them, please, on various different topics. Can you please discuss the tax implication for Vivendi shareholders of the split? There is a comment that you make on page four, but I'm not sure I understand the point you make about the tax treatment of the reimbursement of capital. I thought that was potentially tax-free.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Mm-hmm.

Adrien de Saint Hilaire
Director of Head of European Media research, Bank of America

Secondly, on Canal+, could you discuss the impact that you expect from the negative arbitration on VAT and the discontinuation of French football rights for second half and next year? Then the third topic, there was quite a sharp deterioration in organic growth between Q1 and Q2 at Havas. François, you gave us some factors, but it seems that there was some underlying deterioration there. How do you think about the second half for organic sales growth at Havas? Thank you.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Okay, thank you, Adrien. Thank you for your questions. First of all, the tax implication, I think we have, give some flavor in the previous meeting, but what we can say today, that, we have not stabilized the, the level of tax for the, shareholders. If we focus on, I would say, French shareholders, we see that, roughly, the level of tax will depend on the level of reserves compared with the level of share capital. And today, what we know is that when we look at the, at the figures of our reserves and share capital at the end of the first half, that, the, the impact of tax for the shareholders will be far lower than, it was for the UMG operation two years ago, as the reserve compared with the share capital are, really in minority.

So we can't put really into figures the level of tax, because it will depend on the level of valuation the day of the listing. But today, we consider that it will be below 50% of tax. So the base of taxation will be below 50%, on which will be applied the rate, let's say, of 30%, if we consider the flat tax. So what is important is that the most of our, more than 50% of our distribution will come from share capital, and less than 50% will come from reserves. So more than 50% won't be taxed, and less than 50% will be taxed. That's roughly what we can say today. Am I clear, Adrien, or you need some more?

Adrien de Saint Hilaire
Director of Head of European Media research, Bank of America

Super clear.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Thank you. For VAT, you know, there are still some good news, bad news discussions. So today, the game is absolutely not over. There are still discussions with the French tax authority that will end, hopefully, before the end of the year. But today, we do not consider that the decision which has been disclosed two or three days ago is a final one. So there are still discussion, and we have also some positive signals that make us quite confident to convince the tax authority that Canal+ is really a TV operation that should have most of its revenue taxed at a 10% rate.

So we'll see in the second half the evolution, but we are still confident that we will be able to convince the tax authority that we are really operating a TV operation and not a streaming one. Concerning us, yes, I think I gave some data. I think we still have an organic growth impact by the partial loss of this client during the third quarter. We hope we'll be able to bounce back during the fourth quarter or next first quarter 2025. So it's a strong impact on our organic growth.

But let's remind that all our teams has been able to adapt their cost structure to this negative evolution of the organic growth, which explain the fact that we have been able to deliver sound results ahead of last year, increased by 6%, even with this stable organic growth during the first half. So we'll still struggle in terms of organic growth, but we are still very confident in terms of ability to increase our margin and increase our figures growth at the end of the year.

Operator

Thank you. We now move on to our next question, which comes from Conor O'Shea, from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Conor O'Shea
Equity analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good evening, thanks for taking my, my questions. First question, on Canal+, with the non-renewal of the DTT license for C8. There were some quite high annual losses mentioned in the press relating to this channel. What are the plans, going forward for, for this? And could those plans mean lower annual net losses or, or, or not? That's the first question. Second question on Havas. I think the contribution from M&A and Forex combined was about 400 basis points positive in the first half. With the acquisitions that you mentioned, François, in the first half, should we expect a similar boost to reported revenues in the second half or, or maybe even a bit more?

Then the third question, just in terms of Lagardère, obviously well ahead of expectations in the first half, particularly on margins. I don't think they raised the full year guidance, but can you give us a sense of what you expect in the second half of the year for that business? Thank you.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Thank you. Sure do.

Arnaud de Puyfontaine
CEO, Vivendi

Hi, Conor. It's Arnaud de Puyfontaine speaking. So, on the decision yesterday you're referring to, on C8, it's very early stage, should I say. The two words which have to be kept in mind are, it's a shock and, it's a sadness. Let's remind that, this is the number one DTT channel in France, and, that this decision is, is, I would say, strange, to say the least. So, it's too early to comment anymore or to dwell on, on the situation. The team at Group Canal+ led by Maxime Saada are currently working on the situation, and I'm sure that this is something that we'll, in due time, report to you with substance.

Maybe you two, you take the second one.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Second, yes, question on the Havas acquisition, just to confirm that we should be on the same page during the second half. We have still several bolt-on acquisitions in the pipeline, and we consider that we still try to aim, I would say, roughly 10 acquisitions for the whole year, as we did last year. So it's roughly the same trend than the first half.

Arnaud de Puyfontaine
CEO, Vivendi

On your third question on Lagardère, there is a confident sentiment regard to the performance of the group in the second half. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Up next, we have Jérôme Bodin from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.

Jérôme Bodin
Equity Analyst covering Media/Telecom, Oddo BHF

Yes, good evening. Two questions on my side. The first one on Canal+, I see that the subscriber base is down in H1. So could you give us a bit more details on what packages or offers are concerned? And do you think that this is due to an elasticity link with the recent price increase that you made last year in France, which is overall positive on net net, but so that's my first question. And second one on the free cash flow for Vivendi. I see it's down in H1, so I was wondering if this is due to CapEx, to working cap, or to any other items. Thank you.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Okay. Jérôme, thank you. On Canal+, we have to remind that it's there is a strong seasonality, which explained the fact that we are above last year, same moment and below the end of the previous year. Nevertheless, which is very important, that the evolution in France is very favorable, and we keep on increasing our subscriber base in France. We have some ups and downs in Africa, mainly depending on the type of promotion we do, and sometimes they are before or after the end of the first half, which explain this. But important to point out that it was clearly a very positive trend in France.

And we also have written off some accounts with very low or above zero ARPU, which were accounting, and we have decided not to account anymore because it was not reflecting the impact on our revenues. On Havas, you're right, the evolution of the cash flow is negative, which is non-common, even if the first half of Havas is always not as good as the second. We make almost all of our cash flow during the second half. Nevertheless, during the first half, we have some acquisitions and not only the one we have launched today, but the finalization of a previous acquisition with buyouts, which has been paid for several agencies, Gate One. But also, Buzzman in France.

For these reasons, we have had big cash out during the first half in terms of M&A, which is the main reason, but no main evolution on the working capital. When we look at our overages in assets, there are no things to worry about.

Operator

Thank you. As a brief reminder, that is star one for your questions today. And we're now moving on to Christophe Cherblanc from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Christophe Cherblanc
Managing Director, Bernstein

Thank you. Good evening. My first question was on the French football situation. beIN is retaining some rights to the Ligue 1, so what is your exposure to beIN for the new cycle? Are you still paying any distribution fee? What is the situation? The second question is also on football rights. You have a very deep European competition portfolio. Do you plan to sub-license part of it, as you were doing in the past? And should we hear about that very soon? And the last one is on also Canal+, on the free to air business. CNews has had a very good run, so I would assume they are coming closer to breakeven. C8 was loss-making in the past.

So net, net, what is the contribution of the free-to-air unit to the EBITDA that you're expecting for the full year? Thank you.

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Thank you, Christophe. Concerning the French football, we have a distribution agreement with BeIN until May 2025. Nevertheless, we are not sure today of the impact of this distribution impact with the type of agreement they are signing. So we do not know exactly how it will be broadcasted if they find this agreement with DAZN. Today, we are still in discussion. Concerning the sub-license, the file is open. Today, we have not signed any sub-license, but we may sign one if we find a interesting agreement with a partner.

Concerning CNews, yes, you're right, the audience are up, and we consider that we will be more than breakeven in the coming half.

Operator

Thank you. From Deutsche Bank, we now have Silvia Cuneo with our next question. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Good evening, everyone. Also, a few questions from my side. The first one is on the timeline for the split, potentially based on the latest communication, it sounds like you're working to the shortest timeline possible that was previously indicated, so December 2024. Can you please share more color about what are the next steps from here? And whether you still see some risks that actually the potential split could complete instead in H1 next year? Then second question on the offer for MultiChoice. After reviewing the offer documents, we noticed that there is potentially an option to adapt to the consideration with a combination of stock and cash. So just wanted to ask for more color about what would you consider to potentially revisit to this offer?

Whether the listing of Canal+ is somewhat related to this. Then, final question, just briefly, if you had any updates on the capital allocation for Vivendi. Thanks for providing indications of what the net debt position will be post the split. Just wondering if you are in a position already to comment on potential priorities for future capital allocation. Thank you.

Arnaud de Puyfontaine
CEO, Vivendi

Thank you for your question. So I'll take the first one. So we are now, when we announced the project in December 2023, we gave a timeline between 12 months and 18 months.

... What we did announced on Monday is threefold. Number one, A, as far as far as we are, there is no red flag as regard to create making real this split operation, which obviously is going to be subject to: A, approval and advice from the different employees bodies, number one, and we started the different consultation on Monday post the communication we made in the morning. That's point number one. And point number two, a final agreement from the supervisory board of Vivendi, that should, if it were to be so, convene an extraordinary general meeting that could be held in the very first part of December.

If we were to follow those different stages and from the kind of hypothesis from today, there is a timeline as regard to the operation that could enable us to get the operation implemented by mid-December. Again, this is only subject to the different parameters that I just developed, number one. And but this is the plan within which we are currently thinking and working. And I'm reiterating that as we speak, there are no red flags as regard to the possibility to reach that objective as developed.

Maybe Francois?

François Laroze
CFO, Vivendi

Yes, concerning your second question, which was on a MultiChoice type of takeover. For the moment, we have proposed this ZAR 125 proposal in cash, and there is an option which was given, maybe the day when Canal, sorry, is listed. So it's not for now, and it's true that there is a Canal could open an option after the listing, but today it's not what we have proposed to the shareholder. We have proposed this level of ZAR 125 rand in cash. Your third question was on the capital allocation priorities.

Let's remind that our intention today is that the final debt of the Vivendi after the split will be between EUR 1.5 billion and EUR 2 billion, which is acceptable compared with this level of assets, which will be above EUR 7 billion.

Operator

Thank you. As there are currently no further questions in the queue, I'd like to hand the call back over to you, Mr. de Puyfontaine, for any additional or closing remarks.

Arnaud de Puyfontaine
CEO, Vivendi

Well, thank you for your attendance to the call, and, we at Vivendi, wish you a fantastic summer, a good Olympic Games, and, very much looking forward to, the next steps. Thank you very much. Have a good evening.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.

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