Hello, and welcome to the Verallia Quarter One 2024 Financial Results. My name is Caroline, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only mode. However, you'll have an opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your questions. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero, and you'll be connected to an operator. I will now hand over the call to your host, Patrice Lucas, the CEO, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q1 2024 result call. As usual, Nathalie and I will go through our presentation, and we'll have our Q&A session. I will start with some key highlights. Nathalie will present in detail our numbers, and I will be back for conclusion. To start with, just to remind you that Verallia is a global leader in glass packaging for food and beverage. We are the number 1 in Europe, number two in Latin America, and number three worldwide. On this chart, you have our ID card with our members. One of our strong assets, as you know, is our customer base, more than 10,000 customers, and the diversified and balanced end markets in which we operate. We do operate in 12 countries, with 34 plants and 63 furnaces.
We have 19 color treatment facilities, and with more than 10,000 employees, we are producing more than 16 billion bottles and jars per year. Let's move to some key highlights for the quarter I want to share with you. The first one is about Vidrala acquisition. We announced at the end of February our transaction of Vidrala's glass business in Italy. This project is fully aligned with our strategy to invest in growing market and get some external growth each time it makes sense for us. This acquisition will reinforce our offer to the Italian market for the benefit of all our customers. This acquisition is about one manufacturing site with two furnaces located in Corsico, near Milan. In 2023, the activity represented a revenue of EUR 131 million, and an EBITDA of EUR 33 million.
We are now between signing and closing. Completion of a transaction is subject to the approval of competition and foreign investment Italian authorities. Completion of the acquisition should take place in the course of the second and third quarter. Second highlight is about innovation. Innovation is on at Verallia to prepare the future and to propose low CO2 product to our customers. Our electrical furnace technology is one of the key technologies which will contribute to our CO2 emission roadmap reduction. And on behalf of our technical teams, I'm glad and proud to tell you that we have turned on our first 100% electrical furnace in Cognac on March 18th. This is a world premiere for food and beverage with the largest capacity, 180 tons per day.
This furnace will operate with 60% less CO2 emissions compared to a traditional furnace, and will be dedicated for flint and extra flint bottles for Cognac customers. We are now ramping up, and first deliveries are scheduled for the end of Q2. So we are on track, and again, proud of, of the job done by the team. Next, is about EcoVadis. CSR, being at the core of our strategy, I am pleased to share with you our last EcoVadis rating. We got, again, the platinum medal for the third year, meaning being part of a top 1% company in terms of environment, human rights, ethics, and responsible purchasing. And our rating has improved from 78% to 85%. This evaluation is a reward to the robustness of our actions and our commitment as a leader to pave the way on CSR.
There is no doubt that by doing so, and especially with our decarbonization roadmap, we are well positioned for future growth to serve our customers with high quality and low carbon products. Last, lightweighting is a trend, and we are preparing our offer. Bordelaise Air is the first one. Get the most with the least, this is a value proposal. We are in production now in France, Spain, Germany, Italy, and Chile will come. And we have signed first contracts for more than 10,000 bottles for 2024, and this is just the beginning. About our financial performance of Q1. As expected, due to the market condition and the high comparison base of Q1 2023, our activity is down versus Q1 2023, with a positive gradual recovery of volumes. January was still low, similar to last December.
An activity increase in Feb and again in March, confirming our perspective of gradual recovery in 2024. This is giving us, for Q1, a revenue of EUR 836 million, -20.5% versus last year, and an organic growth of -12.7%. An adjusted EBITDA of EUR 204 million, -33.7% versus Q1 2023, and an EBITDA margin of 24.4% versus 29.1% last year. And a leverage of 1.5 compared to 1.2 at the end of 2023. I let now the floor to Nathalie to comment in detail our Q1 financial numbers.
Thank you, Patrice, and good morning to you all. So let me lead you through our sales and EBITDA and debt for the quarter. So you see here our usual bridge for the consolidated revenue in Q1. So we achieved a turnover of EUR 836 million. And you remember in Q1, 2023, it was EUR 1,052 million. Our organic growth is -12.7%, but if you exclude Argentina, where we always have price increases due to the hyperinflation, the organic growth, in fact, is -20.7%. So as you can see in the bridge, we have lower volumes versus Q1.
So let's remember that we have very high costs when we compare ourselves to Q1 2023. If we move to geographies and segments, in Europe we have a soft start in beer. So we see some recovery in beer volumes, but quite a bit soft. We have spirits and soft drinks, sparkling and food are showing greater resilience. In Latin America we have a strong rebound in Chile and we see some slight pickup in Argentina and some softness in Brazil. So again quite a low quarter, but again versus a very strong Q1 and a gradual recovery in volumes, as Patrice said month after month as we expected.
If we move to the price mix, we have year-on-year decline in selling prices, again, expected in Q1 and Q2, 2023. We were at a peak in prices to offset the strong inflation that we had last year. Here in this bridge, you see EUR 7.7 million negative, but this is offset by some strong positive Argentinian impact that you can read down in the bottom of the page. We have stated very clearly the Argentinian impact. So on prices, it's EUR 68 million positive from Argentina. The Forex exchange is negative, and it's mainly Argentina.
And you see some perimeter effect, plus EUR 4 million, and this is the acquisition of the pellet treatment centers, that we did in Iberia, in the fourth quarter last year. If we move to the EBITDA variance analysis, so we moved from EUR 307 million in Q1 2023, down to EUR 204 million in this quarter. So no surprise, this is the activity operating leverage, that is showing the strongest negative impact. So we have the impact of the lower volumes, which we just commented. And also, let's remember that last year, we were in Q1 and also Q2, restocking coming from low level of inventories. That was also supporting the activity pillar.
And this year, we are not doing the same. We are keeping our inventories strictly under control. So, as in the bridge, it is also a negative impact here. The spread is negative by EUR 8.8 million. Again, here, let's be careful, we have positive offset from Argentina that you can read below. It's plus EUR 24 million, so meaning that our spread, excluding Argentina, is minus EUR 33 million. So here, again, anticipated, and we had a very positive Q1 last year, and we did, we are now in a deflation mode, and we did decrease prices. The mix contribution has been positive for several years, if you remember.
So now in a comparison business, it is, slightly negative in, in this quarter, as, the mix is now, more stabilized. You can see that the net PAP is, strongly positive with +EUR 17.5 million. We have an excellent performance, in the quarter. We reduced by 2.8% our cash production costs. Of course, we, concentrate even more on, cost reduction in, in the context, and so it's, very good to see, this contribution. We have, some positive, other as well. So as usual, so it's EUR 4.8 million. As usual, we have, a list of positives and negatives, and we have also, here embedded, tight control on SG&A, that is contributing.
In the Forex exchange rate pillar, EUR -26.2 million is almost only Argentina. If we move to the group net debt evolution and the leverage. So the net debt moved from EUR 1,364.5 million at the end of December and increased a bit to EUR 1,496.3 million. This is due to a combination of seasonality in our WCR and to the CapEx roadmap. You see that it leads to a very good leverage at 1.5 times. And two other information, our credit rating has been recently confirmed by Moody's Baa3 Outlook stable. For your information, we did extend EUR 1.1 billion of credit facility by one year, as we had the option. Here you can find, as usual, the financial structure and liquidity profile of the group. Remember that most of our long-term debt is fixed or hedged, and the available liquidity is comfortable at EUR 725.4 million.
Thanks, Nathalie. So to conclude with our guidance and to make it simple, we confirm our guidance for 2024. We foresee a gradual rebound of the activity through a year, meaning with volume up year-on-year. So as a consequence for our profitability, we maintain our objective of EBITDA of 2024 around EUR 1 billion. We've sequential improvement through the year, with an H1 below last H1 2023, with an H2 above H2 2023, and H2 2024 above H1 2024. So thanks for your attention. I propose that we move to the Q&A session. You have the floor. Thanks.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We will take the first question from line, Lars Kjellberg from Stifel. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. I have a couple, starting with price mix. Relative to what I expected, it was a fairly small, even if you adjust for Argentina. So how should we think about that price mix component as we progress through the year? That's my first question. The other one is about the volume, the activity part. You talked about stock effects there as well. Could you share with us how we should think about sales volume in that contribution to the activity and stock levels, how they fell and the impact of that? And then I just wanted to discuss a bit on the Corsico plant acquisition, the Vidrala asset. I mean, you were reasonably well positioned in Italy.
What does this plant add to your offer in the region, and how should we think about the synergies in that region from that acquisition, if any? Thank you.
Okay, thanks for your question. So Nathalie, will you go first?
Yes. I will- I will start, and you can complete it then. Thank you very much for your questions. So the price mix and that's the progression that we can expect throughout the year. So indeed, the spread is minus EUR 33 million, again, if we exclude Argentina. If we think of the dynamics of the pricing first, we have a pricing negotiation throughout the quarter in Q1. And some of the price effects will continue to come in in the second quarter, as all negotiations are not fully completed. So you always have some lag in the price adjustments at the beginning of a year. Last year was very specific because of the volume shortage. We could get quicker in closing negotiations.
This year, frankly, we're not in such a hurry to close negotiations, one, and second, we are back to a more normal timing. So again, some more pricing effect in Q2 is embedded in our forecast. As for the mix, you know, it's more that usually we forecast a neutral mix, and we were very good at optimizing our mix in the previous year. So going forward, so now first we see some negative when we compare ourselves to previous year, and moving forward, we don't plan for positive mix impact again. I think your second question was, on the activity pillar in the bridge, in the EBITDA bridge, what is relating to stock? So, basically it's around EUR 30 million, one third of the negative effect that you see in this activity pillar is coming from inventories.
Again, one year ago, so in Q1 2023, we were increasing our inventory level, because if you remember, we were really short in inventory. So in H1 last year, we were rebuilding inventory, and we explained to you that at the end of June, we were at the right level, what we believe is the right level and quality to serve our customers. Since then, we have been holding on this inventory level. So now we don't have any positive impact from stocking anymore. And again, it's very important for us to keep our inventory under control.
And about your question concerning Vidrala acquisition in Italy. I mean, as we have always explained through our capital allocation rules, it is fully aligned. It makes sense. This is what we want to do each time it's gonna make sense. And here in Italy, it is the opportunity for us to strengthen our position, complying, obviously, with all the competition laws. This is an opportunity to add some new customers, new products, and obviously to integrate this single manufacturing site in our ecosystem with all the synergy we could expect. So this is clearly a good move for us, which is going to create value in the months, in the years to come.
To follow up, if I may. Just on the stock component, should we expect a bit more drag from that as we progress in H2, in through H1, and then it's gonna be more neutral to positive in H2? And then just on the other synergies you wanna share with us when it comes to the Vidrala acquisition.
So on the stock, again, in Q2, also we were still... Last year, sorry, we were still rebuilding. So, with-
Right
... the comparison basis, you will have the same, a bit lower, I guess. You have the same effect in Q2, but then it's, it will, it will end. Because again, we, since June last year, we believe we are at the right level of, of, volumes, quantity of inventories in the different geographies. And, as you know, we are, adjusting our production capacity to the level of, of, of demand, to keep this, this, stock, level. So again, in Q2, and then, and then not, not more.
All right.
So about your follow-up on Vidrala's deal and synergy. It's a little bit early to share that. I mean, let's close the business, but as you can imagine, we're gonna have some purchasing strategy as any HMU can integrate that company or a site within our ecosystem. So too early to speak about it, but we will be back when completion of the deal is done.
That's fair. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line... Patrick Mann from Bank of America. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you very much for the call. I just wanted to ask a little bit more around capacity and your outlook for, for volume growth. So, you know, you've said you're seeing a sequential improvement month-on-month. I mean, what... How long do you think it would take, for you to return to, to close to full capacity? And I suppose I'm thinking also that you've deferred some of your new furnace investments and, you know, making an acquisition here, and consolidating production. Is it in the light of the current market conditions, are there other opportunities to, to maybe make similar bolt-on acquisitions and further consolidate production? And in which markets are you looking? That's the first question. Thanks.
Thanks, Patrick, for your questions. So about activity again, the good news is that we see the sequential improvement of the activity, as, as I have commented. So January was still low, it was still at the level of December. And we have seen some increase of activity in February and again in March. So this is confirming the scenario on which we built our hypothesis assumptions for, for 2024, which is this gradual recovery, with a, a big impact coming from the end of the destocking that we, we are planning and still planning to end at the end of Q2.
So we see, we see a Q2 which could be close to last year, and then obviously, due to the comparison basis of last year for the second semester, we do expect a growth in the second semester. Let's say high single digit growth, which will lead year-on-year to a low single digit activity growth. Back to the capacity, you, you're right. As we announced during our full- year results, so we decided to postpone additional capacities that we had in mind in 2022. And here I'm speaking about two additional capacities, one, which was scheduled for 2025 in our initial plan in Spain, and 2026 in Italy. Due to the market condition and the way of, as we have explained for the market, this normalization in 2024, et cetera, so we have decided to postpone them.
So it means that we are going to push the CapEx button for this additional capacity much later on. And as we speak, we do not see the need for this additional capacity, best case, for Spain to be in 2026, and Italy for 2027, not before. About Vidrala's acquisition again, in Italy, for us, we are not speaking here about additional capacity. This is capacity which is already on the market with customers and product, so there is no move, or no disruption about the capacity, the installed capacity in Italy. So it is a different topic, and this is why we believe it's a good way for us to increase our growth in Italy and as another consequence in Europe. We are still- Sorry, please.
No, no, I was gonna say, Patrice, I 100% agree with what you're saying, in that, you know, the acquisition allows you to continue to grow without adding capacity. I suppose the question was more, are there other markets where you see that opportunity too, or is this, you know, was this just a very opportunistic acquisition, or is it a case of this is a shift in strategy, so we've deferred capacity additions, we're focusing much more now on industry consolidation and looking for acquisitions?
Well, we are totally very, very... It's a continuity of our strategy. You know, that our strategy was again crystal clear on capital allocation. First, it was about organic growth and all the investment we want to make to support our decarbonization roadmap, especially. So this is about, all about strategic investment within the company. And two, we said that M&A, if we have opportunity to consolidate on some market where it is possible, we will take them. So there is no change. The only change is the market condition, which was quite unprecedented in 2023, and obviously it doesn't make sense to add capacity as we were initially planned. So there is just a delay, a postponement on that.
At the same time, on a parallel, if we have some opportunity for growth, we'll take them. As the one we are just working on right now with Vidrala in Italy. About new markets or new opportunities, I mean, as we always say, we are on a permanent screening. Obviously in Europe we have some countries where it is quite not possible due to our positioning and volume we are representing on this market to make some acquisition. But every time it's gonna be possible, we are going to look at it.
Thank you. That's very clear. Thanks very much.
We will take the next question from line, Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hello, good morning. I have some follow-up questions and new ones. Well, the first one is on the EBITDA pricing spread, which is... I mean, if I look at the chart that you show us at the end of the year, you are mainly expecting EUR 100 million negative impact there. But taking into account the good performance of Argentina, it is close to flattish or, and probably it will not worsen in the coming quarter. So should we understand that this is gonna be an improvement on your bridge guidance for the year? The second one is, if you could give us a little more detail on which products are lagging behind, and where do you see the recovery in Q2 and in Q3?...
The third question is on the debt. I mean, I understand some seasonality probably on the working capital, but if you could give us a little more detail for this debt increase in terms of CapEx and working capital. Thank you.
Okay. So, I'll take. Thank you, Paco, for your questions. I'll take the first one. So we didn't give specific numbers in our bridge last year. We wanted to show you that we planned for a negative spread in the year 2024 versus 2023. Now, let's be careful again, because as I explained, we have pricing effects still to come in the second quarter this year. Because again, negotiations, there is a lag, and you know that, for us, we have limited portion of formula in our contract, meaning that the rest is really annual negotiations. So, we expect further pricing impact, negative impact in the second quarter. So, no change there in the EBITDA bridge versus what we've shown you. And again, we confirm our EBITDA guidance. For the product, I need you, Patrick.
For the activity, let's say, by segment or by geography, so we see diverse situations, obviously. If I speak about geography, U.K. and Germany are still lagging behind. For U.K., this is related to the spirits, you know, that they are mainly dedicated to spirits and high-end value product. And the spirits, you know, is suffering after a strong 2023. And this is the segment where we saw at the last the consumption and stocking effect. So obviously there is a lag behind, and as we speak, spirit is going to recover later during the year compared to other segments. So U.K. geography is slower. In Germany, in Germany, we are still not at the level we should be, to be honest.
And here we have a specific topic on beer, for us, as we are facing some little bottling delocalization, which we are taking benefit in, in Brazil, for instance, but obviously impacting our activity in Germany. And here we are going to make some adaptation in one of our furnace in Germany. So for the rest, south of Europe is recovering. We see good resilience in food and sparkling. In non-alcoholic beverage, it's a little bit contrasted depending on the geography. But globally, to make it simple, we are seeing what we are expecting. For spirits, it's taking much longer to recover. And in Germany, we have a specific topic on beer that we are addressing. This is how we see, and again, Q2 should be close to last year, compared to Q1, which is minus low teens.
Low teens below last year. H2, we should see a high single digit growth compared to last year, which will lead to this year-on-year low single digit increase.
Okay.
Then on the cash generation, on the debt, some more color. So in terms of CapEx, in fact, we have higher CapEx in this quarter than we had last year in the first quarter. You know, there is a lot of timing in the CapEx agenda, if we talk about quarters. And we are finalizing an important project. We talked about Cognac, the new electrical furnace. We have our plant, new furnace in Campinas, in Brazil. And also, you know, that we will have our first hybrid furnace in Zaragoza, in Spain, end of this year. This world project already launched that have an impact. In the quarter, it's more than last year. On the opposite, let's be clear, we keep our CapEx strictly under control, and we will monitor the year CapEx to stay around 10% as usual.
If we talk about the quarter, you have some specific impact here. And then the VCR, the seasonality of the VCR is that we always have a negative variation in the first quarter. This is not new. It's when we, if we look at last year, it was very much mitigated and compensated, more than compensated by the factoring increase due to price increases. And here, this year, we don't have this effect as we have a more stable or slightly positive impact. So this is more as again seasonality, and Q2 will be back to positive free cash flow.
Oh, so Nathalie, could you detail the variation of factoring between the end of the year and this year, this quarter?
It's pretty stable, Paco, in fact.
Okay.
Because you have better volumes, but you lower prices, so all in all, it's, it's, almost stable.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Philippe Lorrain from Bernstein. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, Philippe Lorrain, here from Bernstein. So I'm fairly new to the case here, so please excuse if I'm asking questions that are, like, very, very obvious.
Okay.
The first one would be, can you remind us of what you aim to achieve between the price mix effect in sales, and the price mix effect on the adjusted EBITDA? The second question is, is it fair to assume that Argentina accounts for roughly 3%-4% of group sales, which would be what I get from back-of-the-envelope calculations, based on the additional disclosures that you provide in the presentation this morning?
Yes. So, I'll answer the first... The second one first. So it's a yes, absolutely for Argentina. Then, the first question, sorry, about price mix, effect in, in sales and, and EBITDA. So what we presented, in February, was, a projection of, our, our EBITDA bridge, not giving, specific numbers by pillars. But explaining that in 2024 versus 2023, we, expect, a negative, spread variation, mainly coming from, the carryover effect of, price decreases, done in 2023. So the answer is, we expect a negative, spread contribution to, to the EBITDA, and so a, a negative, price mix pillar in the sales as well.
Okay, so maybe I can follow up a little bit on that, because what struck me was, if I strip out basically the effect of Argentina that you provide on the price mix, both at EBITDA and at sales level, I come to a contribution ex Argentina of roughly -EUR 76 million on sales, for basically a -EUR 33 million on EBITDA. So I was wondering, whether it's normal to have such a discrepancy between the contribution of price mix on EBITDA versus the price mix on sales, assuming that normally the drop through on pure price would be 100% normally?
Yes, but then you have a compound of different EBITDA impact depending on the countries. So it's not that straightforward. But yeah, maybe we can follow up later on with you. I take the point.
O- okay.
Yeah. Thank you.
Okay, perfect. And then a couple more questions. So, first, like, if I get my bridge, let's say, for activities ex Argentina, would you confirm that the price is probably down in the mid- to high-single-digit range, for the first quarter versus last year? And, you were mentioning as well that the negative spread variation that you see in EBITDA generally is due to price decreases, given in 2023. Is it what I really, really heard, or did you want to say 2024 so far?
Sorry. Okay. So, yes, for your first point on selling prices-
Yeah.
- but I didn't get your second, can you repeat your second one?
Yeah, I was just asking for precision if you really said that the negative spread variation that you saw in first quarter is basically due to the price decreases yeah that you gave already last year, or is it just this year?
Last year.
No, we said, we said for the full- year, when we project ourselves for the full- year 2024 - versus the full- year 2023, so we are, we are bridging-
Yes.
you know, averages are here. We have- we started decreasing prices in the second half of 2023. So we start the year-
Okay
... with the carryover impact, that will, that will continue to hurt us in the- in the full- year. So that leads to, for the full- year, a negative spread.
Variation. Yes. Okay, okay, perfect. I understand. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from Jean-François Granjon from Oddo. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. The first question, sorry, I come back on the spread effect. I was a little bit positive surprised by the limited impact, even if we integrated or excluded the Argentina impact. So, to understand why, in fact, the spread impact is limited for the Q1, and if I understand, the spread impact should be less negative during the second half. So, in fact, could we expect a more limited and negative spread impact for the full- year than expected? My second question-...
On the positive views of the Forex impact, can you explain why with a limited 2%-3% sales from the Argentina sales, we have a so huge impact, -8%, on the sales impact for the Q1? My second, the third question concerns also the Argentina with a so huge increase of the pricing to offset the Forex impact, why there is no impact on the volume? You mentioned a stable volume in Argentina, despite the strong growth of the pricing. So, why there is no impact, in fact, on the volume? Another question regarding the PAP impact.
There's a great impact with EUR 17.17 million euros impact, positive impact on the EBITDA of the Q1, so this is higher than expected. You mentioned generally speaking, 2%, it represents 2.8%. So can we expect higher impact for the full- year, nearly EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million for the full- year? And my last question, do you see some positive impact from the Jeux Olympiques in France, a positive impact for your business? Thank you.
Okay, Jean-François, thanks a lot for your questions. We're gonna try to not,
Not to forget.
... to forget them.
I can repeat them.
Thanks. Okay, so I'm gonna start, and then Teddy will complete-
Yes
... on the Argentina and Forex topic.
Yes, yeah.
So about the spread, we are seeing in Q1 the variation of spread in our EBITDA bridge. I mean, keep in mind, as it has been said, that there is a kind of lag between the price decrease and some negotiations to come, impacting the P&L. So we do not see the full impact on Q1. We do not see the full impact of Q1, so we are still working on, obviously we are working as well on the cost side-
Yes
... of the spread, because this is what we need to do. So we do not change what we said a few weeks ago, when we presented 2023 full- year results. We are still, we are still on that. About the PAP, I'm taking this one. So you're right, we have a very good results at the end of Q1, 2.8%.
Yes.
But this is just one quarter. Obviously, as we want to push our competitiveness, you know that this is one of the key topic for us to increase our EBITDA from one period to the other. Last year, with the situation, we launched some projects, and we are taking the benefit of them. ... now in Q1. So, I do not expect, to be honest, this 2.8 performance to be sustainable, the full- year, but, we are working on to, to push. And as we have always said, our, minimum objective is 2%. So we are on that, and, we'd like to thank the, the teams, by the way, for what they are doing, and we are going to keep on pushing to do so.
About the Olympic Games, very difficult to, to comment about that. I would say that we are not betting on that. This could be the cherry on the cake. But we are not betting in our forecast, uh- ... on that. And it will have maybe some impact in France, with the tourism coming outside of Europe, maybe it will have some effect as well on the tourist level in Spain or Italy, but we don't want to bet on that, to be honest.
Okay.
So regarding Argentina, when we compare ourselves to last year, we compare ourselves in terms of Forex to... It was before the two devaluations that occurred in 2023. If you remember, there was around 10% in August, and 50% in December. So this is where we have the highest gap, so that's why mathematically you have this,
Okay
... very strong impact. And, in terms of, pricing and economic situation in the country, inflation keeps on being very strong in Argentina. It was more than 20% in January. It is relenting a bit. It was about 15% in February, and below 15%, so 13%, if I recall correctly, in March. But it's still, it's still of course, very high. So we have pretty good volumes, but for sure, it's not either booming, but it holds, it holds quite well so far. And the country is used to this hyperinflation, so indeed we are increasing our prices accordingly, as we always have done.
If you remember, we have always had a positive spread in Argentina, as the country is shaped that way, I would say.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Manuel Lorente from Banco Santander. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. My first question is regarding pricing trends. I believe that Patrice has been very vocal regarding volume trends throughout the quarter. I was wondering whether you can be a little bit more precise regarding this delta deterioration quarter on quarter, Q2 versus Q1, and and maybe an expectation for the full- year.
Well, this is, I mean, about selling price is a kind of sensitive topic, as you can understand. So we are not willing to comment a lot on that. As it has been said already, we are seeing a mid- to high-single-digit price down between Q1 last year and Q1 this year. This is what we are doing. We have our guidance of work spread, so which you have understood. So this is what we are going to work on, expecting as well, working on the cost side, expecting some positive news on the cost side -which could give us some room of maneuver. But this is, I don't want to comment much more on pricing on that.
Okay, I understand. And maybe just one final question regarding the Vidrala deal. It is fair to assume that once the deal is complete, we should expect some narrowing of the guidance or some fine tuning of the guidance for the full- year? This around EUR 1 billion, maybe transforming like EUR 2 billion or above EUR 1 billion, or not necessarily is the case?
But this is a very good question, but too early to state on that. I mean, this is the beginning of the year. You have understood our guidance for 2024 which we are confirming what we commented ... during 2023. So let's close, let's close the deal. Let's do the job in Q2, and let's meet at the end of July with our H1 result. It will be the moment to- ... to say something about our guidance, including Vidrala, if the deal is completed.
Let's not forget that it is not so significant-
Yeah
... in terms of EBITDA for the-
Yeah.
If you remember what we, when we released our press release-
Yeah
... announcing the deal-
Yeah
... it's around EUR 30 million per year. And we'll have the portion of the year, so maybe a half year, maybe a quarter. So-
Sure
... it's not so significant, all in all.
Sure.
Okay. Thank you.
We will take the next question from line, Fraser Donlon from Berenberg. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Yeah, morning Patrice, Nathalie. Thanks for the presentation. It's Fraser here from Berenberg. Three questions. So I just wondered if you could comment on any pricing trends within the European markets, more specifically, you know, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, or if you see any kind of changes in imports in any of those markets? The second question was just on the cognac furnace, which is quite interesting, I guess, good for the Scope three emissions of your customers. And I wonder how you price for that in the market, given, I guess, it's been an expensive investment in some way for you, given it's this kind of world first.
Then the final question was just looking forward, do you expect to see any divergence in the trend of weight versus like, let's say, bottles or, or units, given, you know, you can start having these, like, lighter Bordelaise bottles that you mentioned in the presentation? Thank you very much.
Thanks a lot,
You're welcome
... Thanks a lot, Fraser, for those questions. About Cognac furnace. So obviously, producing and selling products with low CO2 as a value, and I don't want to comment that, but we are able to price- ... because again, it has a value. Keep in mind and remember that we are, we are representing a significant part of the Scope 3 of our customers. And as they have all, a decarbonization roadmap, some commitments to reduce CO2 emission, they are expecting us to do the job. And by doing the job, it has a value. So, we're gonna start the first deliveries at the end of Q2, and we have been able to value this product. So this is just the beginning, but for us, it has a strong value. About the lightweighting, not sure I have understood your, the divergence you are talking about here.
For sure there is a trend on the market to lightweight, and for us, this is a trend we want to, we want to lead. And this is what we have demonstrated with our capability to put on the market, this 300-gram Bordelaise Air bottle. This is a big advantage because when you are doing that, you are ticking several boxes. The first one is that it's a tool or it's a bottle you can provide to a customer with a lower price, because lower grams, obviously seen from the customer, it's lower price. But for us, in Europe, a ton, it is a way to not reduce our pricing, and it is a way, in some cases, to improve our margin.
And it's as well some product which has had value because, producing a lighter bottle requires additional engineering capability to design the mold, and it requires a stronger and robust process control to produce it. So it has value. So this is a trend, and this is something we are going to keep on pushing for the benefit of our customer, for the benefit of, of our profitability, for the benefit of the CO2 as well. It is one of the bricks for our customers to reduce CO2. So this is a trend we see. And it's gonna—I, I think it's gonna move forward. It's gonna move forward, and it's going to become more and more important. And you had one first question?
About import.
Yeah, about imports. About imports, no, from what we have seen, with the 2023 European numbers, we do not see any significant change. By country, we are monitoring that as well, and we do not see significant move here. So it's quite stable to what we had in the previous years.
Perfect. Thank you for your answers.
Thank you. We will take a follow-up question from the line, Philippe Laurent from Bernstein. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for taking the follow-up. I just wanted to come back to the fact that you mentioned the mix effect was negative on sales. Could you indicate by how much, roughly? And also, if the same order of magnitude would be observed exactly on the EBITDA, i.e., whether there's an additional effect that is actually weighing more on the adjusted EBITDA margin or not? That's the only question.
Okay, thank you for your question. We don't give the breakdown and the exact number of mix. It's, I mean, it's not the largest impact. Let's just say that we were benefiting prior year from a positive mix impact, so when you bridge, you don't have it anymore. It's more linked to, you know, the current consumption being maybe less on more premium product than it was last year. Again, it's a combination of all our portfolio, a lot of SKU. So, our teams are always working on optimizing the mix, but I would say it's more the cherry on the cake. So, in our forecast, we never embed any positive amount on the mix. And here it is a bit negative, but it's not the most significant impact. And neither are we-
Okay, but yeah, sorry.
Okay, sorry.
There, there was a cut?
Oh, yeah.
Sorry.
I was just wondering whether, at EBITDA level, you would have the same amplitude, yeah, like you have on sales. So let's say, sales is impacted by X%, is it also impacted EBITDA by X%, or is it more than X% because you've got that extra mix effect that is weighing, and there's also an impact on the cost base?
Yeah, you have both indeed. So it's not a direct impact. But again, it's a few million EUR, so it's not so much. Maybe we can also, when we have our follow-up call, we can dig more into that. But the takeaway here is more that we have a slight negative mix impact in the EBITDA. So again, not significant, slightly negative, because we were commenting previous years that we had a slight positive one.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. There's no further question over the phone. I'll hand it back over for written questions.
All right. Good morning, David Placet speaking. I'm the head of our IR for the group. Many thanks for the many, many detailed questions. We have a few more, I think, in writing, but we'll try to go quick in the interest of time. So I'll just walk you through the questions, and again, we'll try to proceed quickly. One question from Fernando Vigon: Given the liquidity that you have, are you planning on doing any share repurchases to take advantage of the current low valuation?
Well, to be honest, short term, the answer is no. We have announced with our full- year results, our dividend. This is gonna be our focus this year. We are going to be back, at the end of the year, beginning of next year at the latest, with a capital market day, to give some clear, objective, for years to come. And obviously, the shareholder return policy will be detailed at that time. So we'll see, but the short term to answer to your question is no.
Thank you, Patrice. Second question from Francis Prêtre with CIC. Is it possible to have the global trend in each segment in Europe between sell-in and sell-out? So I guess that refers to the stock variation that our customers.
This is,
We can only give kind of a global answer.
Yeah, we can just give and repeat what I have said. And obviously we are very active listener and readers about our customers' reviews and what we are seeing about the activity. And here we are seeing some contrast situation, contrasted situation. Everything is recovering, I would say globally. Again, we have a specific situation for us in Germany with beer. And what is lagging behind, this is what we see with the spirits, which is explaining the volumes decrease we have in U.K. And the slow restart of spirits, especially Cognac. This is what we see for the rest, this is in line with what we are commented with, stock ending, and at the latest, by the end of Q2.
Thank you, Patrice. One further question from Inigo Egusquiza with Kepler. Could you please explain the volume weakness in Europe, knowing that other players have talked about volume recovery since the beginning of the year?
Well, I think here, I think the comment is certainly related to beer. If you do remember, last year, beer was the first segment impacted by a slowdown, and it started at the end of Q1. This, we are impacted in Germany, as we commented at that time. So, obviously, beer segment has restarted quicker, and this is what we see on the countries where we have some beer volume. So I think this is one of the big differences maybe with some competitors. As you know, we are less beer exposed, so we were performing much better in 2023, better than what we see as global figure on the market, and obviously there is a lag.
But, at the end of the day, what is important is that we are confirming the assumptions and the profitability that we have guided a few months ago—a few weeks ago with our full- year results.
Great. Thanks again for this one. Next one from, Mengxian Sun , with Deutsche Bank. Two questions there. One, in relation, to the dynamics, by region and in market. I think that has been addressed-
Yeah
... already. And the second one, in relation to the lightweight bottle, in terms of its pricing and margin profile, compared to the standard bottle.
Lightweighting a bottle, again, is an opportunity to give some price reduction for our customers. So it's a tool to fight inflation for our customer. And for us, it is an opportunity at the worst case, to maintain our EUR per ton. So this is really a win-win, win-win strategy, a win-win product. And on top of that, it's ticking the box of the CO2 emission reduction. So this is why, again, we are preparing the future on that, and that we are pushing to the edge of engineering and manufacturing, engineer.
That's great. Thanks again. And last question from Lucas Adrian, regarding the Cognac site, which is 100% electric, does Verallia seek a partnership with a renewable energy provider?
So, renewable, we are much more speaking about low carbon electricity. And in France, nuclear is well positioned for that, obviously, as you know. But this is why we are speaking about low carbon electricity. Securing low carbon electricity at a good price is part of our strategy. We have started to work on so-called PPA. We have signed some in Germany, in Italy. We have a small one in France. And for the moment, for being specific with Cognac, we don't need it because it is quite small compared to everything we are consuming. And we still have, for the French guys who know the system, the ARENH system in France. till the end of 2025. But we are working on that to secure the right, for the years to come. This is a key strategic topic. We are on that, but nothing specific right now for Cognac.
Great. Well, that's it from my end, in terms of written questions.
Okay. So thanks a lot, thanks, thanks a lot for your comments, for your questions. It was quite valuable. And thanks for your trust, and please have a good day, and see you next time. Take care. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.