Hello and welcome to Verallia Q1 2025 Financial Results Analyst call. My name is Richard Dean, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. [Operator's Instruction] I will now hand you over to your host, Mr. Patrice Lucas, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call for Q1 financial results. As usual, Nathalie and I will go through our presentation, and we will have a Q&A session. I will share with you some key highlights, and Nathalie will present in detail our numbers, and then I will be back for our guidance. To start with, just to remind you that Verallia is a global leader in glass packaging. We are number one in Europe, number two in Latin America, and number three worldwide. On this chart, you have our ID card. You have on the left the 2024 split of our sales by segment. As you already know, one of our strong assets is our customer base, more than 10,000 customers, and the diversified and balanced end markets in which we operate. We do operate in 12 countries with 35 plants, with 64 furnaces.
Please note also that we are running 19 cullet recycling centers, allowing us to control about 50% of our needs for external cullets. Let's move to some key highlights of our Q1. The first key highlight I want to share with you is about a new innovative initiative. A few weeks ago, we started to use hydrogen as a combustion energy source for two furnaces in Essen in Germany. This hydrogen is coming from a nearby ArcelorMittal coking plant and made from a byproduct of coke production. We have signed with ArcelorMittal a five-year contract of partnership. After many tests and now weeks of production, it is a success. We are operating the largest hydrogen-po wered melting capacity in the glass industry with 6 megawatts. This will allow CO2 emission reduction by 8% to 10%.
On top of this reduction, it is cost-effective compared to natural gas. This solution is an alternative to our electric and hybrid furnace technologies that we are deploying, meaning each time locally we would have access to an alternative bioenergy source, we will look at it to support our decarbonization roadmap. The second key highlight is to share with you the confirmation of our additional capacity launch in Brazil at Campo Bom. The heat-up of the furnace will be done in a few weeks for first production by the end of H1. This additional capacity will allow us to pursue our growth in a dynamic Brazilian market. This new furnace, a new advanced oxy-combustion technology, will operate with 18% CO2 emission reduction compared to a traditional furnace. This additional capacity will feed our growth in Brazil in H2. The third highlight is about product innovation.
Glass is the perfect material to enhance and magnify the product offer of our customers. Developing customer intimacy and proposing premium and tailored solutions is the lever we want to push. Here you have four good illustrations of what we lately accomplished: one new rosé bottle, which was one of the outputs of our French Design Awards. In the U.K., this new gin bottle. In Italy, a nice single-serve proposal for a non-alcoholic beverage, San Benedetto. Last, in Brazil, a 600ml returnable beer bottle for a beer brand . By doing so, we are leveraging the full capability of glass as a packaging solution and demonstrating our ability to support our customers. Let's move now on some Q1 business insights.
Regarding the 2025 market situation, we can say that the stocking impact in most markets is now ending, and we can say that the growth is now directly linked with the end consumption growth. In Europe, the market is slightly up, and in LatAm, we are still facing a supportive market. Obviously, geopolitical and trade tensions are creating a very volatile and uncertain environment, which is leading to cautious and kind of wait-and-see position of many customers. In Q1, as Verallia, we experienced volume growth impacted with negative year-on-year inflation spread due to carryover from 2024 selling price and some inflationary pressure, mainly on energy in Q1. Finally, regarding capacity, we continue to see permanent capacity shutdown across Europe, especially with the latest official public information with some significant adaptation in France in the past weeks.
Facing this overall environment, we keep our focus on self-help measures and cash flow generation. One, we want to focus on customer innovation and product innovation to support our customers, and I believe that we can do much more with this level. Two, except in the U.K. and Germany, in Q2, we are planning a gradual back-to-normal use of our capacity in Europe, but ready to adapt again with agility if necessary, especially being vigilant of the real output conclusions of the tariff between the U.S. and Europe. In Germany, we have decided to launch an additional project to adapt our workforce for a restructuring cost of about EUR 10 million. As usual, number four, productivity and cost control are at play as part of our DNA with PAP, delivering again in Q1 2.3% of cash cost reduction.
Finally, as we commented during our beginning of this year, our priority is cash generation with tight control over CapEx and working capital. Before giving the floor to Nathalie, a quick overview of our Q1 results. The positive news is our volume recovery in a difficult market environment. Our Q1 revenue is down by 2.2% year-over-year to EUR 818 million, with organic growth at minus 3.6% year-over-year. Q1 adjusted EBITDA is EUR 147 million, minus 27.9% versus last year, with a margin of 18%, minus 641 basis points versus Q1 2024. About net debt leverage, it is at 2.3 at the end of March compared to 2.1 at the end of last year. Let's see now with Nathalie's detail of our numbers .
Thank you, Patrice, and good morning to you all. Let me lead you into these Q1 results. You see here our revenue variance analysis for the first quarter. We delivered sales of EUR 818 million to be compared to EUR 836 million in Q1 2024. The organic growth in the quarter is negative, minus 3.6%. If we exclude Argentina, it is minus 4.3%. You can see here in the usual pillars of our bridge that volumes contribute positively, as Patrice just commented, plus EUR 24.1 million. We have an improving demand context, especially in Latin America. We have seen organic volume growth in Q1 again, with most segments improving. This growth is more dynamic in LatAm, but even in Europe, we have seen volume growth in this quarter. In the price mix, we have a negative impact, as expected, so minus EUR 59 million.
We have a decrease in average selling prices year-over-year and some mix impact in these figures. If you remember, we had anticipated this negative impact in the beginning of the year. We have a negative exchange rate with EUR 6.5 million. Here, it is mainly coming from Brazil. The perimeter impact, EUR 24.5 million, is mainly linked to the new plant in Italy acquired in July 2024. You have separately the Argentina variation of minus EUR 1.4 million. All in all, good momentum in volumes, but not sufficient to offset the negative price mix. How does this translate into adjusted EBITDA? We have an adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of EUR 147 million to be compared to EUR 204 million. That leads, as you can see on the top right, to a margin, EBITDA margin of 18% to be compared to 24.4% one year ago.
Here again, the usual pillars to explain this variation. We have a positive activity pillar, plus EUR 18.5 million. We have here a positive impact from the sales volume, the organic sales volumes that we were commenting before. We will come back to that. In finished goods inventory, usually in Q1, we do prepare and build up inventories to enter the higher quarters that are Q2 and, of course, after Q3, which is not what happened in this first quarter where our inventories remained stable. The spread is strongly negative with minus EUR 86.2 million. We have seen we have lower selling prices and negative mix impact . We also have cost inflation. Especially in this first quarter, we had some stronger than expected cost inflation, mainly on energy from the spot element.
On the net productivity, we deliver, as usual, more than 2% cash production cost reduction at 2.3%. That leads to plus EUR 12.5 million additional EBITDA. The other pillar is a combination of perimeter effect, some SG&A reduction, but partly offset by some positive one-offs that we did have last year and that we do not have this year, but quite limited in amount at EUR 2.3 million. The effects you have again, mainly Brazil and Argentina as a separate pillar for minus EUR 1.3 million. As a conclusion, the decrease in our EBITDA compared to Q1 2024 is mainly driven by spread. At the end of the quarter, our debt is pretty stable versus end of December 2024. We have a decrease in the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA. Our leverage is a bit higher than end of December at 2.3 times.
We have in the quarter almost neutral free cash flow when one year ago we had a very negative one, if you remember. As usual, our financial structure, no specific change compared to end of December. We have a comfortable available liquidity at EUR 927.9 million at the end of March.
Thanks, Nathalie. About our guidance, 2025 has started with uncertainty and volatility and is marked with subdued European consumption and rising global tensions. As we speak, we still see demand slightly up in Europe and remaining strong in Latin America. However, market conditions are much tougher due to the global environment. In this context, we do update our adjusted EBITDA target. Now we expect to be around EUR 800 million from a level close to that of 2024, which was EUR 842 million initially. We are confident to generate free cash flow of more than EUR 200 million compared to around EUR 200 million initially. Free cash flow, again, being our key focus for 2025. Thanks a lot for your attention. Let's now move to our Q&A session.
Thank you, Mr. Lucas. As mentioned, we will begin with the Q&A with the audio questions. [Operator's Instructions] . We'll start off with Ms. Louise Wiseur from UBS. Your line is open.
Good morning. I've got a few questions, please. Firstly, on the guidance 2025, what drove the cut to the adjusted EBITDA guidance? Is it linked to the strong negative price cost spread in Q1 or the outlook on tariffs or something else? What does your new guidance assume in terms of scenarios for the current year? Is there any indirect impact from tariffs on the volumes included in there?
Secondly, on volume and price for full year 2025, you said in the past on volumes probably low to mid-single-digit growth in 2025 and on price, low single-digit decline from the carryover and again, low single-digit decline from the additional price cuts. How do you see volume and price for full year 2025 now in light of your new guidance? The last one is around the price cost spread in 2025. Strong negative impact on EBITDA in Q1 from the price cost spread. Can you give more color on what happened? I think you mentioned more inflation costs. How much negative could this be for the full year, please?
Thanks a lot for your question. About our guidance and the slight adjustment we did on the EBITDA level, it's mainly due to the market conditions, which we see much tougher than expected. Again, we have the good news on the volume side, but on the price mix, and especially on the mix, we see some negative impact that we had in Q1, especially, I would say, in January and February, but even, again, a little bit in March. The good news is that we see March, we had a March which was quite supportive in terms of volume. We see that again in April. On the volume side, we are quite, let's say, confident with the different initiatives we have taken, but with some impact on price and mix, let's say.
You're right, we were expecting, to make it simple, a mid-single-digit increase in terms of volume with a mid-single-digit impact in terms of price and mix. Now we see much more volume to be for Verallia, high single-digit, and a few additional points negative in terms of price and mix compared to our initial expectation. Your questions about the tariffs and the trade tension between the U.S. and the rest of the world, I mean, frankly, nothing has been really taken, just what we observe as we speak today, because the first difficulty we have is to understand what are the assumptions to be taken. As you know, you can go to bed with one information and wake up in the morning with a different information, or even having something which seems to be clear on Monday, and you have the opposite on Friday.
With our customers, it's about the same. I mean, the main key word is really agility and adaptation. This is why, by the way, we are cautious in production in Q1, and we are paying that with some less production contribution to our results in Q1 compared to what we do usually. As Nathalie explained, in Q1, normally, we build some inventory for the high seasons to come in Q2 and Q3. Being cautious, we did not do that. We see some production upside to come in Q2 as we are going to restart, except U.K. and Germany, as I mentioned. We are back to normal everywhere to face what we see as a peak season in Q2 and Q3. For the cost, Nathalie?
Yes, for the price cost element in the spread, you're right. In Q1, we have a negative, we have inflation in our costs, and we had some, I would say, one-off effects with especially energy. If you recall, the spot energy prices have been pretty high in Q1 and are now down. We are back to normal level, even reduced ones. In Q1, we had a negative impact from the energy mainly. Also, in all our, in the cost inflation that we see for the full year, that should be close to neutral or slight inflation, but again, not the same as in Q1.
We will benefit from cullet deflation, and we do not fully see that yet in the first quarter. Again, back to the more surprise, I would say the spot energy prices were higher than expected in the first quarter. That is not what we see going forward. As we speak today, energy is again lower. That is good news for the rest of the year.
We now go to the line of Lars Kjellberg from Stifel . Please go ahead.
T hank you. I just want to get back again to Q1. Again, we appreciate the energy cost went up, of course, right? With your hedge portfolio, etc., it's still very puzzling to see that extreme margin contraction of 650 basis points sequentially. You've got to be able to provide some more color on that. If so, hope that 650 basis points drop. You did speak to most of the prices, of course, have price declines happen in the first half of 2024, some incremental, but you didn't have a top-line problem here. This is really a cost issue, it appears. If you can provide some color, how do you expect that to reverse in Q2?
Considering that, of course, your guidance around EUR 800 million, you need to have a real step up in margins for the balance of the year on the current revenue base to get there. In the context then of uncertainty around the tariffs, how are we comfortable with that? The final, could you just put some color on that inventory variance, what it normally would have been as a positive contribution and also CapEx guidance in absolute number for the year, if you could? Thank you.
Yes. You're right. Energy costs, first question. Again, we are hedged, as you very well know, for a large part, but we always have 15% to 20% open to spot loss. This is the element that was impacting our spread in the first quarter. We always have an open position. In fact, we have a bit more open position, but again, normally in our policy than one year ago because one year ago, we had lower production than anticipated. Here, we are really well adjusted. We have this open element. Again, between 15%, it's 15% and a bit more here in the first quarter. That was impacted by the spot. As we speak today, energy prices are down. This portion that is open to spot, we are not penalized anymore in this first quarter.
On the margin contraction, it's not only the spread impact, I would say. Again, we did not produce as fully, we did not produce with the full production. We had a slow start in January-February. In March, we had good sales, dynamic sales, but production was still pretty low. Again, we did not build the inventories that we usually would build in the first quarter. This has an impact on our margin because basically, you absorb less fixed cost than what you would normally do by running and building up a bit of inventory in the first quarter. One year ago, in Q1 2024, we were building some inventory.
This fixed cost absorption is also weighing on your EBITDA margin. Moving to Q2, Q3, and later in the year, as Patrice said, we are back with higher production. This will lead, you're absolutely right, to an improvement also in the adjusted EBITDA margin. This is also answering, I think, your question on the inventory valuatio n.
If you could just quantify that, help us to understand what that means, because you did have quite a meaningful positive on the activity pillar, right, which was EUR 16 million positive. How would that have been had you had a normal production?
I'm not going to give you a precise number here, Lars. Just again, it's a specific impact in this first quarter. Again, we will improve in the second quarter and moving forward. Your question on the CapEx -- [Crosstalk]
About CapEx, Lars, what we see and what you could consider our forecast for this year is that we are going to be below EUR 300 million. Tightening, obviously. We see some depletion as well compared to the overall plan we have on the CapEx side. Below EUR 300 million, which will put us in the range of 8%+ of our revenue.
Thank you.
We will now move on to the line of Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas .
Hi, good morning. I have two questions. The first one, I'm sorry to insist on this. On the cost side, I mean, Nathalie, you mentioned that you are almost 85% hedged in energy, but you are also working at a low utilization capacity. As it happened last year, this spot acquisition of energy is much lower right now than it should be. How is it possible to have a 5% cost inflation with such exposure? I don't know if you could detail on this cost if there is also a negative effect on mix and you could quantify this. The second question is on capacity utilization.
If you could remind what's the level right now and how much of your capacity is curtailed? Give a little more detail on Germany's self-help measures if this will come with a lower capacity for the future. Given that one of your main competitors has made a big restructuring in France, as you commented, I don't know if you are planning further movement on that side. Thank you.
Thanks a lot for this question. Just to clarify on the cost inflation, the energy has quite a significant impact to what we were expecting in Q1. Compared to last year, you know that we are hedged. In our hedging, facing some uncertainty on volumes for 2025, we have slightly reduced the hedge part. Instead of moving to 85%, we did 80%. The non-hedged part in Q1 was much more 20% rather than 15%. If you compare the gas price spot level in Q1, especially it was very high in January and February, compared to last year, we had a significant impact here on the hedge part. What we see as good news to come is that, at the end of March, it has started to relieve.
If you look at the number, January and February, the megawatt hour was around EUR 50. As we speak, we are much more around EUR 35. Based on what is happening on the geopolitical and market environment. For capacity, as I commented, we are back to normal as we speak in every country in Europe, except the U.K. and Germany. In the U.K., we are still suffering from spirit markets, which is quite low and with all the uncertainties and with U.S. tariffs. In the U.K., we are still one furnace, which is not running on four. In Germany, we have one furnace in Bad Wurzach, which is not running. We are making here a temporary adaptation. That means we have not made any decision for a definitive closure, as the opposite of what we did last year in Essen.
Germany and the U.K. are really the two countries where we are still suffering from non-news capacity. For the rest of the countries, we are back to normal. In Germany, again, we have decided not to do definitive capacity shutdown, but we have decided to adapt some cost base, especially on the workforce side. As I mentioned, we were planned for about 100 people for EUR 10 million for the [Inaudible] . This will take place at Essen, in Germany, at Bad Wurzach manufacturing site, and some SG&A adaptation at the headquarter in Germany. For France, as we speak, we do not plan any capacity adjustments. We see, again, in France, we are back to normal. We have relaunched the furnaces. We have some maintenance, which is a business as usual plan, but we are not planning, as we speak, for an additional plan.
Correct me if I'm wrong. Two furnaces out of the 50-something that you got, it's only a 4% to 5% production curtail right now?
Yeah. This is globally for the group, it's about that. Obviously, with much more impact in the U.K. and Germany.
Thank you.
To come back on your question on the cost side, we talked about energy, but there's not only energy. We have also inflation on labor costs, for example. Here, nothing that is not anticipated. As I commented, this is partially mitigated by some expected deflation on cullet. In Q1, we do not yet have the full impact of that. Just to further give some further light on the cost.
Good. Thank you. Thank you very much, Nathalie.
We will now take from Mr. James Perry from Citi . Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for the presentation. I'd just like to ask about the global consumption trends and trade flows. I know you talked about the improving European volumes, and obviously, a direct exposure is Europe and LatAm. Would you be able to comment a bit more on any changes in customer behavior in light of the U.S. tariff uncertainty? What are you hearing from customers regarding the export trends? To what extent could a weak U.S. consumer hold back your volume growth in 2025, do you think?
This is the question. The assumptions we have as we speak is consumption being slightly up, globally speaking, in Europe. What we see through the different strategy initiatives we have taken in the different countries and different segments, we see for Verallia good momentum in terms of volume. We see volumes picking up in beer and non-alcoholic beverage. The only segment which is suffering is much more sparkling. For discussing with the customers, frankly speaking, most of them are very cautious. They are a little bit of blind. What we may see is some tactical and strategic behavior with this 90-day pause, I would say. It is really difficult to be definitive and to have a standard pattern, to be honest. We do not know. Again, here, what is key is agility and adaptation, being cautious in everything we plan, ready to adapt if necessary.
Again, the good news is that we see we have a good March. We see a stronger pull, which is giving us a good momentum for Q2, and we'll see. You know as well that the weather conditions in Europe will be quite significant on Q3 and Q4 sales. We'll see. We are not pushing for or making an assumption of high consumption or even pushy consumption in Europe. We are quite cautious on that. The result of our volume growth is much more related to the initiatives, as we explained during the full year result of the year-over-year.
Okay. Thank you.
We will now take a question from Philippe Lorrain from Bernstein . Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. I just wanted to come back a little bit on your comments on volume. Maybe it's just me. You mentioned that volume seemed to play out the way you wanted. You indicate as well that you would now expect a high single-digit growth versus mid-single-digit before. At the same time, you mentioned that you had the negative effect from finished goods inventory in Q1 and that you will restart more capacity in Q2, except in Germany and the U.K. That strikes me as maybe the visibility has moved a lot or fluctuated a lot during the first quarter. Maybe you can shed some more light here. Also, when you speak about the volume trends, can you confirm whether this high single-digit growth that you now expect for Verallia as a whole includes Corsico or not? Is it in organic terms or not? Thank you.
Yes. Quite easy answer. Yes, Corsico is embedded in that. You know that about Corsico, compared to last year, it is 4% growth coming from this scope or perimeter effect with a good momentum, especially on beer. Globally, about your question, this is what we have just said. We have good volume progression compared to last year. Obviously, in H1, with the perimeter effect from Corsico. Keep in mind that in H2, we get the positive impact in Brazil as well with our additional capacity in Campo Bom. Keep in mind as well that we have in our plan to start our Pescia furnace in Italy with Q4 impact, with some good opportunity we see on the food segment.
This is the plan we have as we speak. Globally, volumes are quite at a good level in terms of growth for us, but with a tougher market condition to get this growth. Make it simple.
Okay. That led you basically to still not pile up that much finished goods inventories at the end of Q1 because you expect to be able to catch up on that production in future quarters?
Yeah.
Yeah. It is also linked to the fact that it is really March that was very dynamic in terms of- [Crosstalk]
Yes. Okay. Thank you.
Welcome.
[Operator's Instruction] . We'll now move on to Jean-Pierre from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Hello. Jean-François Granjon speaking from ODDO BHF.
Hello. Jean-François?
I think you're on mute. [Crosstalk]
Thank you. Jean-François Granjon speaking from ODDO BHF. Just one question regarding the pricing. You mentioned on the press release that there is some, for the negotiation at the beginning of this year, some decrease for the pricing with your discussion with the clients, customers. Could you give us some more color? Does that mean that we should integrate some lower pricing on average for the full year, for sure for the coming quarters? The other question is for the spread impact for the full year, how do you expect the level compared to the minus EUR 200 million last year for the negative impact on the EBITDA? Should we consider that we could have the same magnitude or lower than that?
Jean-François, we won't comment on pricing. We don't give color on prices, price evolution. In our spread, you have price and mix. The comments won't go further in our comments on what Patrice already said in terms of both. Again, in the volumes and price mix, overall, we are a bit better than anticipated on volumes and a bit worse on the price mix as a whole. No more detailed comment on these elements. Overall, on the spread, we see not the same magnitude of spread impact as last year.
But you. -- [Crosstalk]
Yeah. Jean-François? [Crosstalk]
Yeah. Sorry.
For around the negotiation, you confirmed some decrease for the pricing. Sorry? I just mentioned during your negotiation with the customers at the beginning of this year, you confirmed some decrease for the pricing. When we negotiate the new tariff for 2025, there is some decrease for the pricing. That's right?
W hat we said about pricing is that obviously, and especially when you're looking at the spread, we have the carryover effect of what we did along the year in 2024, plus the additional price reduction given in 2025. This is about it. Obviously, the spread is significantly negative in Q1, as expected. I mean, a little bit more than what we expected due to the tougher market condition I mentioned. Obviously, it will reduce down the year.
T his is in Q1 where you have the largest gap between prices from 2024 and 2025 because if you remember, we had some price mix going down last year in 2024 throughout the year. This is in the first quarter that we see the highest negative gap.
Yes. Thank you.
Welcome.
We will now move on to the line of Mengxian Sun from Deutsche Bank . Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my question. Two questions from my side. The first one is on the 2025 guidance. You basically reduced the adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025, but on the other side, you increased the free cash flow generation. How shall we understand the bridge between these two elements, or what are the drivers for the better cash generation for this year? The second one is on the BWGI offer. Can you remind us what are the following procedures from here and the timeline of the tender offer from here, please? Thank you.
Thank you, Mengxian. On the cash, let me take this one. In fact, indeed, we moved from around EUR 200 million free cash flow generation to above. We see, again, in the first quarter, we were much, much almost neutral in terms of free cash flow when one year ago, we were significantly negative. We know in the seasonality of our cash generation that Q1 is the lowest, and then Q2 and H2 especially are much stronger. We have a better visibility. Again, we commented on the CapEx, on the investments. We know that the additional capacity, the CapEx linked to additional capacity is basically behind us. We have a lower CapEx spend and a better visibility today. We are, again, confident on delivering more than EUR 200 million.
We're also working and seeing some good effects on work to optimize our working capital, especially on inventories other than finished products because you have finished products, but you have also other inventories. All these action plans plus the context of the cash spend leads us to this above EUR 200 million free cash flow guidance.
About the voluntary tender offer from BWGI, you may have seen that BWGI had just filed this morning to the French Financial Markets Authority, the AMF. By the way, all of this information will be available on our website today. The next step is that we'll have a board of directors this Sunday to examine the offer. As expected, the board will have to issue a reasoned opinion of the offer, having considered the report of the independent expert, Cabinet Ledouble , I do remind you, and the recommendation of the Ad Hoc Committee . This reasoned opinion and the independent expert report will be made public. We will have to wait for the AMF validating the offer, and then we'll enter into the standard process later on .
Okay. Thank you very much. That's very clear.
You're welcome.
We'll now open the line for Fraser Donlon from Berenberg .
Yeah. Morning, Patrice and Nathalie. Thanks for the presentation. It's Fraser here from Berenberg. I have four questions. The first is quite an open one. I'd just be interested to understand your kind of view on, let's say, a more direct impact of tariffs on glass and aluminum and how those two substrates interact. For example, I think there was quite a lot of glass going from China to the U.S. Where could that land going forward? The second question was just on the U.K. I'd kind of be interested in how your customers are responding to EPR and kind of the increased cost of glass effectively in the U.K. and whether there's any structural risk there for Allied. T
he third question, could you just clarify what are the kind of cost savings relative to non-recurring costs with this Germany kind of plan, which you mentioned? The fourth and final question is just on M&A. I think it's obviously quite a dynamic environment in glass for various reasons. I just wondered kind of what's your willingness or interest to participate in this potentially quite rich M&A environment? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thanks a lot, Fraser. Frankly speaking, on your first question again about the tariff, the question again is, what is the assumption we are seeking to make some study and define what could be the impact? I mean, again, agility and adaptation is going to be the keyword there. Let's wait to see what are going to be the definitive measure to understand our customer strategy and impact, and as a consequence, the impact we have. I do not believe when you're speaking about China impacted in the North American market, that it has the consequence of additional Chinese import in Europe. Frankly speaking, I do not see that as realistic. Really, the glass market is a local market. Obviously, you have a slight part of some imported products coming from faraway countries, let's say.
This is a small part, and this is most of the time on some very standard products and for some one-shot operation, I would say. Let's try to get a better understanding on what is going to be the reality at the end of this trade situation, trade war, to make a definitive understanding. About the U.K., you are right, we have this EPR cost topic compared to other packagings. This could be a concern for glass in the U.K. Here as well, we do not see any impact. It is too limited. It just started. I would say that for Allied, especially, which is a platform dedicated to spirits, I do not see any switch or any impact to come here. Obviously, it will put maybe some pressure on pricing on our customer to the B2C market.
It is much more how it is going to react in terms of inflation. I do not see for us any impact to come. Cost saving in Germany. With what we are planning to do with this restructuration, it is a positive impact of a few million EUR to come on the cost structure. Last, on M&A, you are right, many potential topics to come. Here, as we have already said, we are on a permanent screening, trying to understand the opportunities. Again, anytime it is going to make sense, we will have a look at it. As we speak right now, it is clearly for us to focus on cash generation and to see what will be the next step in terms of M&A if value creation is secure.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
We now come to the last question for the audio participants from Louise Wiseur from UBS. Please go ahead.
Just a follow-up, please, on the price. Can you quantify how much of the price drop in Q1 at group level? The minus 6.3% is due to the carryover of the 2024 price cuts, and how much is due to the additional price cuts made in 2025, please?
As Nathalie said, we do not want to comment more than what we already said on price and mix effect. I think we express ourselves on that. Market conditions are tougher than expected. We see the good sign on volumes, and we see the price and mix effect being slightly negative than what we were expecting.
With that, we will move on for the web questions, which will be addressed by your host. Please proceed.
Okay. Hi all. David Placet speaking. I'm the head of IR. We'll have a short one this time around since we only had one contribution in terms of a written question. Just a short set of questions from Inigo Egusquiza with Kepler. I think most of them have been answered, starting with there was one question on pricing trends, which I think we've addressed. Another regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs, which we've tried to address to the best of our knowledge. Maybe just to. Much of group sales are or could be affected directly or indirectly by U.S. tariffs? That's the first question. The second one relates to the BWGI offer. The question is, can you please confirm that the opinion on the offer using the independent expert valuation will be given as soon as this Sunday, or when will it be given? These are the two questions.
Okay. About, I would say exposure to U.S. tariffs, what we can say on that, you know that 60% of our sales are made with spirits and still wine and sparkling wine. This is mainly this part which is potentially exposed. We do not have direct exposure. We have indirect exposure through our customer exporting to the U.S. What we do estimate is that within this 60% of our sales, between 10% to 15% max is exported to the U.S. If you make the math, it means that total exposure of our sales is between 6% to 9%, so total sales. It means that after that is based on what is going to be the final output on the tariff imposed on European markets, what is the variation compared to this current 6% to 9%.
This is what we can say on that. On the BWGI offer, yes, as I commented, we are going to have a board of directors this Sunday to examine the offer. Beginning of the week after this Sunday, information will be released, especially about the reasoned opinion coming from the conclusion of the board. It will be available at the beginning of the week.
All right. Thanks, Patrice. I think that's it from my end. I think we're good.
Okay. Again, thanks a lot for your attention and for this Q&A session. I wish you a good day. Take care. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Thank you.