Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Verallia 2025 third quarter financial results analyst call. The call will be structured in two parts. First, a presentation by the Verallia Group management team represented by Patrice Lucas, CEO, and Nathalie Delbreuve, CFO. Afterwards, there will be a Q and A session. During this session, you may ask questions in two ways: by submitting a written question in the box below the player or by joining the conference call and dialing the pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. I will now hand over to the management team. Please go ahead.
Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us and welcome to our Q3 financial results call. As usual, Nathalie and I will go through our presentation and then we'll have our Q&A session. I will share with you some key highlights of our quarter and Nathalie will present in detail our numbers and then I will come back on the outlook for 2025. As an introduction, just to remind that Verallia is a global leader in glass packaging. We are number one in Europe, number two in Latin America, and number three worldwide. On this chart you have our ID card. You have on the left the 2024 split of our sales by segment. One of our strong assets is our customer base, more than 10,000 customers and the diversified and balanced end markets in which we operate. We do operate in 12 countries with 35 plants with 64 furnaces.
Please note also that we are running 19 cullet recycling centers allowing us to control about 50% of our needs for external cullet. Let's now move to some key highlights of our Q3. First, the first part of the year was marked by BWGI's voluntary tender offer. This process ended mid-August and was successful. You have on this chart the new shareholding structure. At the end of September, BWGI went up and has now 77% of Verallia's share. BPI went down and has now 3.8%. Employees still have 4.1% of share capital and the floating part is now 12.6%. This step being completed, we will continue rolling out our strategic roadmap focusing on creating value for our customers, employees, and shareholders. Second key highlight is about our decarbonization roadmap. A few weeks ago we got the certification by SBTi on our net zero 2040 target.
We are the first glass packaging manufacturer to commit to such a target. By 2040 we have a robust plan to do so. By 2030 we plan to reduce our scope 1 and scope 2 by 46.2% compared to 2019 and by 90% in 2040. For scope 3, the plan is to reduce by 27.5% in 2030 compared to 2019 and by 90% by 2050. Some of our customers have committed to achieving net zero by 2040 and they need our contribution. This commitment is paramount and demonstrates how glass packaging is well positioned as a sustainable solution for the future. This strategic lever is paramount and key for future value creation. Last highlight is about the confirmation of the commissioning of our first hybrid furnace in Spain, Zaragoza, as a substitution of an old traditional furnace technology. The commissioning was successful.
As of today, we do operate with 30% of electricity and will ramp up in the weeks to come with the objective to reach 70%. This furnace will bring a 55% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to a traditional furnace. After our full electric furnace launch in Cognac last year, this is clearly an additional step forward in our decarbonization roadmap. We will take some time for lessons learned and, if needed, for optimization, and then we'll enter in a step-by-step pragmatic deployment aligned with our decarbonization roadmap towards 2040. Before giving the floor to Nathalie, a quick overview of our Q3 results and the nine-month results as seen in Q1 and Q2. The positive news is that we are recovering volumes compared to last year, but in a much more difficult market than what we planned.
Revenue is down by 2.8% year over year to €846 million, with organic growth at -0.6% year over year, giving a nine-month result. A nine-month revenue result down by 2.5% year over year to €2,565 million, with organic growth at -2.4% year over year. About EBITDA, Q3 is at €181 million, -14% versus last year, with a margin at 21.3%, -279 basis point versus Q3 last year, giving a nine-month adjusted EBITDA of €531 million, -17.1% versus last year, with a margin at 20.7%, -365 bps compared to last year 2024. About net debt, our leverage is maintained at 2.6 at the end of September compared to last June. Let's see now the details of our numbers with Nathalie.
Thank you, Patrice. Let's look at revenue and EBITDA as usual. You can see here the third quarter consolidated revenue variance analysis. We moved from €871 million as reported revenue one year ago in Q3 2024, and we are today at €846 million. As said by Patrice, the organic growth for the quarter is almost neutral at -0.6%, and -0.7% excluding Argentina. You can see the volume pillar is up by €37.3 million year on year. Despite still a challenging market environment and more challenging than anticipated, we could see in fact in the quarter that the activity softened in August and September after a very good start with a good month of July. Looking at segments, most segments grew year on year, especially led by non-alcoholic beverages and spirits.
Coming back to growth, the price/mix impact on the top line is unfavorable with -€43.4 million, driven by lower prices than one year ago and still a negative mix. Then we have FX impact that continues to be negative. The perimeter impact is almost zero. Just as a reminder, I will come to the nine months. You will see perimeter impact with Corsico, our additional entity and plant in Italy. It was acquired on the 1st of July, so in Q3 it doesn't show as a perimeter anymore. Continued volume growth in Q3 despite difficult market conditions. Looking at the nine months consolidated revenue variance analysis now, we moved from €2,635 million- €2,569 million. The organic growth for the full nine months is lower than in the quarter. To put it differently, the quarter is better than the full nine months. Organic growth is -2.4%, -2.9% excluding Argentina.
We have seen continuous organic growth on the nine months, supported by commercial initiatives and all of that despite a softer market environment, especially at the end of Q3 a s I just commented. V olumes are up in Europe and especially in South and West Europe, and Latin America is positive despite a slower growth in the third quarter. The price/mix is negative in the nine months, -€154.4 million, so it's significant. Sequentially, we see a decline in this negative impact and step by step we have the carryover 2024 price reduction softening. We continue to see a negative mix over the nine months. You have here negative FX impact, but also the positive perimeter impact from the first six months for €50.5 million. How does this translate into adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter? You have here the adjusted EBITDA variance analysis.
We moved from €210 million in the third quarter 2024 down to €181 million in this third quarter 2025. We can see from the pillars that the spread impact is the main driver, the main negative driver. With minus €40.6 million, we have lower prices and negative mix as we explained since the beginning of the year. As I was saying, it's gradually. It was minus €85 million in Q1, minus €60 million in Q2, and as we just saw, minus €41 million in Q3. Despite that, we benefit from the volume growth and the solid Q3 performance in activity. We have €7.9 million positive impact of the activity despite here startup cost and ramp up cost from our two new plants, one in Compauban in Brazil mainly for wine and one in Italy mainly on food. Also, as Patrice explained, the hybrid furnace in Zaragoza in Spain.
The net productivity continues to deliver 2% cash production cost reduction and some negative, other mainly due to some one-offs. Exchange rate is negative and Argentina as well. The adjusted EBITDA margin that you see on the top right is 21.3% for the quarter. For the nine months, this leads us to €531 million adjusted EBITDA. It was €641 million in 2024. You can see all the pillars. The activity pillar being positive, we have growth across all regions with volume growth continuing despite a challenging summer, bringing plus €42.1 million. The main negative pillar continues to be the spread for the nine months even if softening in Q3 again. T he net productivity continues to deliver a positive number at €35.5 million and is 2.2% of cash production cost reduction. The other here is positive and includes the six first months of Corsico, also the perimeter impact.
Then you have FX negative. FX negative is mainly coming from the Brazilian real and Argentina is presented aside. We have a continued positive activity on the nine months but offset by mainly negative spread. Here you can see the group net debt evolution and the leverage. The leverage is stable versus end of June, at the end of September with 2.6 times and the net debt is €1,920.9 million. Here you can see our financial structure and liquidity at the end of September. Several comments. Here you can see the first two lines are the sustainability-linked bond that we issued in 2021. As a reminder, following the change of control, there was a possibility for bondholders to ask for reimbursement of these bonds.
You can see that we still hold a nice amount on both of them: €100.7 million for the first one and €70.3 million for the second one. As you can see, they have a very nice nominal rate, a low one. This is very good news for the group and for the confidence that our bondholders have in the group. The rest was refinanced by a bridge loan that you can see at the end of this table. You can see €838.4 million drawn on this bridge. We will prepare a refinancing of this bridge at the end of September. We have available liquidity of €835 million.
Okay, let's move to the outlook as we have just commented. In Q3 we did enjoy again after Q1 and Q2 the volume growth in July, August, and September. We are expecting more based on the trend on Q2 consumption. In Q3 consumption has suffered, impacting as a consequence the glass demand. I want to share with you some fact-based data. Here o n this chart you have the data from Nielsen about the off-trade consumption in Europe of beer, spirits, and carbonated soft drinks. These data are over the last four weeks period evolution year over year. To make it clear, if I take on the graph the date September 7, the off-trade consumption of beer for the last four weeks of September 7 was down by 5% and -2.9% for spirits and -2.5% for carbonated soft drinks.
What is this graph showing? It is one that off-trade consumption of beer was quite positive from mid-May to mid-July and very positive on carbonated soft drinks for the same period with potential positive outcome for the summer to come. Two realities totally different. Since mid-July all categories turned negative with a sharp negative turn on evolution, especially in beer and carbonated soft drinks. No need to say that uncertain environment remains the norm. With a slow global economy, geopolitical and trade tensions are weighing as well on the consumption and creating a very volatile environment for our outlook assumption. As a summary for the market and activity trends, despite a good month of July, we had a poor summer compared to our expectations. In Brazil, after a strong H1, we see the market softening and especially the beer market mix and spread continued to be negative.
Even if the spread is softening as it has been clearly explained by Nathalie, we are still facing a difficult situation in Germany due to the market condition and the overall environment. Finally, about capacity. We continue to see permanent capacity shutdown across Europe. With latest announcements in Q3 in Europe, in Germany and Netherlands, it means that since late 2023 up to 18 furnaces are contributing to capacity adjustment. Facing this overall situation, we keep our focus on self-help measures and cash flow generation for Q4. Uncertain and volatile environment will remain the norm and we see a delayed recovery in market conditions compared to our previous expectations. However, as recorded since the beginning of the year, we expect a continued pickup in activity compared to last year again despite soft demand, but supported by our furnace openings.
Our additional capacity well positioned in Italy on the wine business, on Brazil in the wine business, and in Italy on the strategic food segment, and as well a positive effect which will come with the reopening of our second furnace in Ukraine. Priority will be to keep on our focus on strict control, cost control, and CapEx management to support cash generation. Unless we keep on preparing the future with our Zaragoza hybrid furnace, which will keep on ramping up, being clearly a new milestone for us. As a conclusion, based on 1. the material deterioration in market condition in August and September, 2. the expected pickup in profitability in Q3 which did not materialize, 3. the fact that we see a delay in market conditions recovery, and despite the continued organic volume growth for us in Q4, we have decided to adjust our outlook for 2025.
We plan now to close 2025 with an adjusted EBITDA around €700 million and a free cash flow around €150 million on short term. Again, we will keep our focus on profitability, improvement actions, plans, and cash generation. We will be back to you to present our midterm strategy next January during our Capital Markets Day. Thanks a lot for your attention and let's now move to our Q&A session.
If you wish to ask a question, you may do so by submitting a written question in the box below the player or by joining the conference call and dial £ key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial £ key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is if you c ould you help me to understand your warning? On the one hand, we have—do you hear me? Hello? Can you hear me?
Yes, we do.
Yeah, yeah.
I have some noise on the phone. In this quarter, you have volume acceleration to almost 3.9% despite what is happening in the industry, and you have a price evolution in the top line in line with what was your estimate. In my opinion, this is more a matter of operating leverage cost structure. Two questions here. Why was operating leverage so low compared to, for example, Q2, and can you give us an idea of the impact of margin by geographies? I know that you are not reporting margin by geographies, but with the low activity in Latin America, we could have a much more negative mix than initially expected. The second question here is theoretically Q3 should be a quarter in which you will see some deflation in cost.
At the end of the day, you have no impact of the expensive hedges in 2022 and then probably better energy and also better prices. Why haven't we seen this in the net pricing of the company? Last but not least, I have another two or three, but just one more is why, if demand is so weak, you have decided to start three furnaces while the rest of the competitors are closing capacity. Thank you.
Okay.
Okay. Yes, I start Paco, and don't hesitate to complete your questions. First, on what happens in Q3 and the reduction of our and the gap versus our expense. In fact, the gap versus our expectation is truly on volumes and on price/mix. I would say even if I will comment on the operating leverage, you're right, it is low in Q3. Don't forget that in Q3, as I commented, we start, we are ramping up. This is also one of your questions. We are ramping up new furnaces and we have been working on the hybrid furnace for Zaragoza that is not a new capacity. When we are in, you have three furnaces where you have startup cost. We are ramping up. They are not fully delivering. They are not producing full capacity at all. It is quite a strong impact in the third quarter especially.
This was anticipated because it's just the start of its work in the plants. Also, yes, even if we have additional volumes versus last year, and you're right, we are very pleased and happy about that. We anticipate a better summer. This is what Patrice illustrated with the consumption was low. Our customers did not ask for the volumes that they were supposed to ask in several geographies. The beer segment especially was disappointing. We expected frankly a better summer in that. The mix also was poor, poorer, sorry, than expected, lower than expected. This is mainly that on the cost side in the third quarter, there is no specific element that would be to be noticed really to be noted on the cost element. I'm not sure I understood well your question here. We are in the same, w e have a very sluggish inflation as in the rest of the year so t here is no change here.
About profitability by geography. Francisco, as you mentioned, we do not communicate by quarter the profitability. What I can give you is some color about it in Latin America and especially in Brazil, but as well in Argentina and Chile, we do enjoy very good profitability. There is no material change compared to what you know. I would say it is still difficult in Northeast Europe, as we mentioned, especially in Germany. There is no big move or change compared to what we saw roughly in H1 about the capacity, the additional capacity. This is the first question, I mean, clearly, and I am going to take some time here, clearly one in Compobou in Brazil, this furnace is positioned on segments we do believe have a real potential. This is what we see really today when we look at the market and the demand.
This furnace would be much more focused on, would be focused on wine and spirits. These are the segments which are facing good momentum right now. What is much more difficult in Brazil as we speak, especially since July, is the beer, the beer market. It is known that the winter period there was very cold, the last c oldest for the past 40 years, according to what we know. Obviously, it has impact on the demand. There is a clear willingness to keep on developing in Brazil with our fifth furnace, and with that we are preparing the future.
The second furnace in Italy is about the same story. It's a furnace on which we are focusing sales, development in jars, food jars, which is a segment where we do see potential. We see significant growth this year and we see, according to the forecast, we have a significant as well increase, at least above the average of the overall industry. This is why we decided to focus on that, this additional promise. Obviously, it's a balance between the short term and the medium and long term. As you know, we are focused on long term.
For us it's taking the appropriate measure of short term to protect profitability, but at the same time doing the job to position well the company for the future. This is the rationale of it. The hybrid furnace in Zaragoza, it's a different story because here it's not additional capacity, it's to replace a furnace which was at the end of a life. We've decided to make here our first hybrid furnace, our first pilot, again here to prepare the future, to get the lessons learned of such a furnace to align with what we want to do as a strategic lever for 2040 decarbonization. This is a rationale of our additional capacity. Maybe we have some, obviously some penalty short term especially that in Q3 we ramping up all of that but it is an upside for tomorrow and it is aligned with our long term strategy here. Hope it's clear. Francisco.
Yeah, yeah, it's clear. Could you give us a data, what's your level of capacity utilization and the level of curtailments?
Capacity utilization? It's about the same story as what we mentioned in Q2. In July, the end of July we are running close to normal except some slight adjustment, but marginal adjustment everywhere except UK and Germany. In UK we have one furnace which is stopped, and in Germany we have two furnaces which are cold stop. Obviously, we are working to see how we are going to optimize that. This is part of the industrial strategy we're working on to make it clear.
Okay, thank you very much.
The next question comes from Louise Wiseur from UBS. Please go ahead.
Three questions for me please. What are your assumptions now based on your new guidance of around €700 million adjusted EBITDA for the top line in terms of volumes and in terms of price, and then on the adjusted EBITDA bridge for the price growth spread for the full year? The second question is around the new furnaces you opened, Pescia 2 and Campo Bom in Q3. How much did they actually contribute to the volume growth in Q3, and how much was the underlying volume growth for the rest of the business? The last question is around the flow through of the volume from the top line to the EBITDA. It was only 22% in Q3. What explains this? I guess given your comments right now there's probably some things around the new furnaces, but it was much better in Q1 and Q2. When do you expect to see that flow through actually improve again?
Okay, thanks a lot for this question. About the top line assumptions, as we've said, we do expect a continued growth in Q4 compared to last year in the order of magnitude of what we have been delivering so far. Let's say despite a market which is softening. The gap compared to what we are expecting is that we are expecting higher demand. You see demand and consumption demand going down. It has impact on, but we do expect us to be in the same order of maintenance on top line on pricing. Moving forward in Q4, we do not expect any change. I would say any change, what is waiting is mix due to the market condition, market environment. Mix will be more negative than what we are expecting initially. This is some color about the top line.
Moving forward in Q4, about compound, the impact in Q3 is quite limited as we are ramping up. It is really partial, and we are not providing data in details furnace by furnace or plant by plant in a geography. Obviously, it will contribute. Next year, we will have some repair in Brazil, especially in one furnace in Porto Ferreira. This additional capacity will be able for us to keep on selling at a good level and obviously focusing again on the wine segment, wine and spirit signature.
On the flow through, yes, you did understand that the Q3 was a bit specific with these ramp-up costs and not full saturation of these capacities. It will improve going forward based on this because step by step, as we were just saying, Campogon will contribute, Besser will contribute more and more, and they won't have this startup cost anymore. It is more the country mix that could impact also because the flow through is not purely mathematical, it's a bit different from countries. It should improve in Q4 and moving forward.
Thanks.
The next question comes from Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Sorry, it's again me. I mean, more questions in the queue. I have two questions. One clarification, as you mentioned in your press release that, let me see how you say it, Latin America demand momentum weakened in Q3, but also in the presentation you mentioned that this Q3 performance has been solid, driven by Europe and Lhasam. Could you give an idea what is the general performance? You mentioned already Argentina until you could Brazil, but the overall or the net effect, if it's a plus or a minus. The second question is on the covenants. I mean, if we are assuming €700 million EBITDA with €115 million free cash flow for the year and with the dividend you have paid, the net debt should go above or slightly above three times. Is this a risk for you? Is this a risk for the dividend? Thank you.
I will answer the second one, and we have to come back to the first one because I'm not sure we have understood your question. Your first question, Francisco. I mean about the net debt ratio as you projected and all of that. Obviously, as we have said, this will be a priority for us to protect that and to speak about dividend as of today, too early. This will be part of the board decision beginning of next year.
We did generate good free cash flow in the third quarter, strong free cash flow. This is also what we expect for Q4. The leverage will not worsen by the end of the year, and then dividend next year is too early, as we say. We are not at all seeing the three times.
The first question is to have an idea on what has happened in Latin America. In the press release you say that demand weakened in Q3, but on the presentation you talk about the BTA contribution of Latin America which is positive together with Europe in activity.
Yeah, yeah. Latin America, I mean, is still making good contribution in Q3. Obviously, what we are just saying is that in terms of activity and especially due to the beer market environment and demand, it was much below what we are expecting and below what we saw in H1. This is what we wanted to explain here. We were much more in our plans and expectation in a kind of growth similar to what we had in H1, which did not materialize. Even with this environment, we have positive contribution coming from Latin America and certainly due to the fact that we are not just beer focus or beer dependent, I would say.
Okay, now it's clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Louise Wiseur from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hello, Louise, we lost the connection.
Oh, sorry. Can you hear me now? Yes, apologies, I was on mute. Sorry. I know it might be very, very early for you to reply to this, but just trying to get your thoughts on that. Around the pricing, how do you think about this for 2026 given the slow recovery in terms of volumes? Could there be therefore impact on pricing next year? You will have a bit of pressure from clients to cut prices to get a bit more of the volume recovery?
No real comments about pricing. Louise, first, it's too early to discuss about 2026. Our focus is really to close 2025 with what we have just mentioned. We are on the way to validate and work our budget and business plan. We will be back to you. What we can say is that we expect market conditions to continue to normalize with possibly a slight growth in activity. We will see that in detail. What we expect is continued sequential spread improvement. We will see that in detail. A net to contribute. We are working on that, especially on our midterm plans. We will give you more color obviously during our Capital Markets Day next January.
Thanks. Maybe then, I mean, just checking. There was not to boost to be. I mean, Q3 was supposed to be negatively impacted by the price cuts met at the beginning of the year, but no more carryover. Has there been some price cuts in Q3 that would therefore impact 2026, or have you not done any further price cuts in Q3?
No, marginally the main impact is coming from the mix, which, due to the market condition, is really.
Okay, thanks.
The next question comes from Fraser Donlon from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning everyone. Can you hear me? It's Fraser here from Berenberg. I have two questions. Following on from the pricing question, on the cost side, do you see any wins, let's say in the next six to nine months, whether that's in the hedging book for energy or soda? The second question is just on inventories. I think you ran €730 million last year. Do you have an idea of where you can land inventory in 2025? At the end of 2025, I should say, given the demand context is, I would say, more difficult than expected. Thank you very much.
Okay, so in the nine months, as I said, our cost inflation is very notable. In fact, we have inflation on most of the lines. Back to normal inflation, I would say, for example, on labor costs, we commented that we have significant reduction in cullet. You know that cullet is more than 50% of our raw material, so it comes for a large part. And cullet's overall prices are having declining in the year. We have a softening here. That's the main, I would say, deflating driver and that leads overall our costs to a neutral evolution at the end of September versus previous year.
About inventory, Fraser. Inventory control is a key topic. Since this demand backdrop, let's say, which started at the end of 2023, it is really a key topic for us. We are on that on a monthly basis to adapt and to make sure that we keep all of that under control. It is a key topic. Our expectation for the end of the year is to be up compared to last year, at the end of last year, but in a controlled way and slightly up versus last year due to the additional activity we have compared to last year than what we anticipate for next year. It is not slightly and marginally, I would say, compared to last year. This is what we are planning to do.
Maybe one additional point, sorry, on cost that I should have mentioned is on the energy. Just to remind that we are not fully benefiting from the spot energy prices decrease because of our hedging policy. This is the last year that we have a portion of hedging from the high years. It should be an upside for next year.
Very clear. Thanks, both of you.
The next question comes from Manuel Lorente from Santander. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello, good morning. My first question is on the volume side. I'm trying to address the potential impact on that of the low profitability of the group in Q1. According to what you have said, Patrice, on the call, it is fair to say that the vast majority of this 4% volume growth is coming from the new furnaces. In that line, like-for-like growth should be flattish to slightly negative. Filling the gaps to that 4% will imply all the new furnaces or not.
Hello. Good morning, Manuel. Thanks for your question. No, the contribution in the new furnaces is still very low. For light, we do have an organic growth, and it's coming from Europe, but as well from Latin America. It's quite widespread.
Okay, since we have a limited contribution from the new furnaces, so to speak, the narrative of low margins because ramp up cost in those furnaces might not significantly explain, let's say, the margin deterioration. Right. You also mentioned the mix effect on that impact on profitability. When you are mentioning regarding mix, it's more a country mix, a segment mix, or both.
When we comment the ramp up cost and the fact that the new plants are not running fully, it's just normal. We have usually three to even six months to really run full speed when we start a new capacity. This is just normal. At the beginning you have the cost but you don't have the full face against it. This is impacting the full through when we look at the EBITDA bridge. It's very specific on Q3. This is also impacting the percentage of EBITDA margin when we look at it because again you have a portion of cost and you have no revenue in front. It's one driver, it's not the only driver. You're right to explain the level of our material EBITDA margin percentage in Q3 or in the nine months. Absolutely, it's not the only one, but it is a negative impact still on that.
When we comment the mix impact, yes, it's both. Here we were more commenting on the mix of the segments and the projects because of the lower level of consumption, people buying more entry products than high level products. We have less margin in some cases on these products. We also have a country mix when you have Latin America a bit weaker than expected in Q3. LATAM is above 30% adjusted EBITDA usually, so it had some impact. It's a combination.
Okay, great. Just the last one, the next key milestone, it will be the Capital Markets Day. You mentioned that probably was too early to talk about 2026. What we should expect on the Capital Markets Day is going to be a quantitative type of Capital Markets Day with medium to long term forecast. It will also address some qualitative issues regarding strategy, a little bit of both.
You said everything. It will be, first of all, midterm. It will not just be 2026, obviously. It means we will give and provide some orientations, being qualitative and quantitative, especially about the sector, how we do see the evolution, the different segments, how we are positioning ourselves on that. It will be a bulk of all of that with some financial data. I guess we're still finalizing that, working on that. This will be a key milestone after this quite, let's say, disturbing period of 2022, 2023, high inflation, 2024, 2025, the opposite, all the volatility and the demand. This will be the opportunity for us to pause and to explain how we see the next years and as a consequence what you could expect from the company. This would be our intent. You said everything.
Okay, thank you.
All right. This is David Placet, the Head of IR. I think we're done with the questions on the call, and thanks, guys, for asking all of them. We have, I think, just two questions in writing from James Perry with ODDO BHF. The first one relates to basically the flow through between the volume and EBITDA in Q3. I think we've largely touched on that. The second one relates to the spread. The question being, last year spread effect was around -€200 million. Should we see the same trend happening in 2025 full year? Also, do you see any improvements in full year 2026? That is the last question.
Yes, I think I commented quite largely on the spread. We have a spread of -$183 million at the end of September. We are indeed already close to the -$200 million. As we commented, we have a softening of this negative spread, so an improvement quarter after quarter, and we were -$14 million in Q3. One element where we are prudent, and it's very difficult to forecast, as you know, is the mix impact in this spread for the end of the year and sequentially in 2026. Again, we'll come back with more data, but yes, we should see an improvement, of course, in the spread that continues to normalize, but slower than expected in fact.
Thanks, Nellie. Actually, we have, I think I'll take the last one. Last minute question from Inigo Eguskida with Kepler, asking what has changed in the company since BWGI took over. Any changes that you've seen or that may occur, etc. Thanks. That is the question. Good morning, Inigo, and thanks for this question. As we said, BWGI is not new in the company. They were already a significant shareholder, part of the board, so they decided to go for more. It is really a continuation of the strategic plan we have as we speak. Obviously, this will be updated with the Capital Markets Day, but it is a much more holding and key focus on managing the short-term profitability and preparing the future as well. You know that BWGI, as the DNA of the company, is really long-term oriented.
It is going to be a step-by-step evolution if needed, but based really on the key business factor. How would you see the industry here? The key word is continuation, more of the same and creation value and facing the environment. Great. Thanks, Patrice. Thanks, Nathalie. I think that's it on my end.
There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot to all of you. Let's focus on delivering and facing the situation and moving forward to Q4, and obviously the next milestone is Capital Markets Day. It will be a pleasure for us to have this opportunity to share our view here in a much more midterm orientation. Thanks a lot and have a good day. Take care.
Thank you.
Thank you.