Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Verallia 2025 full year results analyst call. The call will be structured in two parts. First, a presentation by the Verallia Group management team, represented by Patrice Lucas, CEO, and David Placet, Head of Investor Relations. Afterwards, there will be a Q&A session. During this session, you may ask question in two ways, by submitting a written question in the box below the player, or by joining the conference call and dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. I will now hand over to the management team. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us. Welcome to our Q4 2025 and full year financial results. Today, David Placet , our Head of Investor Relations, is with me, and as usual, we'll go through our presentation, then we'll have the Q&A session. I will share with you some key highlights, and David will present in detail our numbers, and then I will come back on our outlook for 2026. As an introduction, just to remind you that Verallia is a global leader in glass packaging. We are number one in Europe, number two in Latin America, and number three worldwide. On this chart, you have our ID card. You have on the left, the update of our 2025 split of sales by segment.
Compared to 2024 split, still wine and spirits have lost 1 point each. still wine and sparkling have lost 1 point each. Spirits and beer have kept the same weight, and soft drink and food have won 1 point each. One of our strong assets is our customer base and the diversified and balanced end markets in which we operate. We operate in 12 countries with 35 glass plants and 67 furnaces, serving around 11,000 customers and producing around 18 billion bottles and jars annually. Please note also that we are running 19 cullet recycling centers, allowing us to control about 50% of our needs for external cullet. Let's now move to some key highlights, and I would like to come back on four of them, which have been key milestones in 2025.
One, our net zero 2040 trajectory was validated by SBTi, making Verallia the first global food and beverage glass producer to commit to a 2040 pathway. This confirms our decarbonization leadership, and we have a robust plan to do so. By 2030, we plan to reduce our Scope 1 and 2 by 46.2% compared to 2019, and by 90% in 2040. For Scope 3, the plan is to reduce by 27.5% in 2030 compared to 2019, and by 90% by 2050. Some of our customers have committed to achieving net zero by 2040, and they need our contribution. This commitment is paramount and demonstrates how glass packaging is well positioned as a sustainable solution for the future. This is a strategic lever for future value creation.
Number two, we added targeted capacity and progress in decarbonization. In 2025, we commissioned a second furnace in Campo Largo, Brazil, to support our organic growth in a dynamic market. We also commissioned a second furnace in Pescia, Italy, to support the food growing segment. These two plants, moving to two from one furnace, are also improving their own competitiveness. Then we opened our first hybrid furnace in Zaragoza, in Spain, replacing a traditional furnace. It is a success. We are running now up to 60% electricity and getting the CO2 emission reduction. First, the highlights. Obviously, 2025 was marked by BWGI's voluntary tender offer. This process ended mid-August and was successful. BWGI went up and has now 77% of Verallia share. Bpifrance went down and has now 3.8%.
Employees still have 4.1% of the share capital, and the floating part is now at slightly above 12%. Last key highlight is our successful new bond issuance of EUR 850 million, demonstrating the support and confidence in Verallia. About our CO2 emission reduction, we are on track to reduce absolute emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2019. In 2025, Scope 1 and 2 emissions were slightly up by 0.7% year-over-year, gains being offsetted by higher production level compared to 2024. we are now at -23.2% compared to 2019. What is very significant is the reduction of our in-intensity, meaning the CO2 by tons of flat glass, which is down by 3.1% in 25 compared to 24.
Please also note that external credit usage increased to 57.7%, and that our renewable low carbon electricity share rose to 69% from 64%. Next is about the communication we did last week about targeted industrial adaptation in Europe. After a strategic review conducted in each of our European countries, we are considering adapting our industrial footprint in Europe to align with the reality of the current demand. These actions responds to one , weak demand in Germany, Benelux, without significant evolution at midterm. Two, no material rebound expected in Cognac and overcapacity in extra flint. And three, a market downturn in the U.K., especially in spirits. Facing these market realities, in Germany, we are considering the closure of the Essen site, about 300 position, with production transferred to other Germany sites.
In France, we are considering non-reconstruction of our furnace in Cognac, which is approaching end of line, and here we are speaking about 60 position. In U.K., we are considering shutting down one of our furnace in Knottingley and restart a more efficient furnace in Leeds. With this plan, we are moving from contractual to structural adaptation. This plan is about adapting to volume context on a specific segment and a specific geography to better focus on growth opportunity. Our objective is all about competitiveness, cash generation, and asset efficiency. Before giving the floor to David, a quick overview on Q4 and full year results. As seen from 3 quarters now, we are recovering volumes quarter after quarter.
Q4 revenue is down by 7.1% year-over-year to EUR 763 million, with an organic growth at -4.2% year-over-year, which is giving a full year revenue down by 3.6% year-over-year to EUR 3,331 million, with organic growth at -2.8% year-over-year. About EBITDA, Q4 adjusted EBITDA is EUR 161 million, -20% versus last year, with a margin of 21.1%, -341 bps versus Q4 last year. Giving a full year adjusted EBITDA of EUR 692 million, -17.8% compared to last year, with a margin of 20.8%, which is -360 bps compared to last year. Net income is EUR 93 million, reflecting a minus EUR 7 million non-cash after tax impact of exceptional asset depreciation, mainly from Germany and in line with the industrial adaptation we are planning.
About net debt, our leverage is ending at 2.7 versus 2.6 at the end of September and 2.1, end of 2024. Subject to the approval of the general assembly meeting of shareholders scheduled on April 24th, the board is proposing a dividend of EUR 1, with option for payment in cash or new Verallia shares. Please note that BWGI and BPI have committed to opt for share payment, meaning that the maximum cash out will be of EUR 20 million for the group. Finally, about our financial indicator, this is what I have just mentioned. We are on track and especially with good progress on the external credit usage. Let's see now in detail the numbers with David.
Thank you, Patrice, and good morning, everyone. I will now walk you through our Q4 and full year 2025 results, following the same course as usual, i.e., starting with revenue, then EBITDA, and then cash. First of all, revenue bridge for Q4, which as a reminder, isolates Argentina, as we've know, down for quite a few quarters. As you can see, Q4 revenue was EUR 763 million, down from EUR 821 in Q4 2024, despite positive volume growth. Sales volumes were up again in Q4 for the sixth consecutive quarter, though at a slower pace than in Q3. You may be surprised to see a negative volume lag on the bridge when volumes are actually up. This is due from a one-off in Q4 2024.
That did not happen again this year and accounted for slightly more than EUR 10 million of decline or 1.5% of growth. Without this one-off, the volume leg would be positive, and organic growth rather than the 4.2% negative than we see here, would actually be in line with the organic growth for the full year of around -2.8%. Moving on to price mix. As has been the case through 2025, this price mix impact is the main negative driver of the bridge, and it's amounted to a negative EUR 36 million in Q4. It is worth noting that this impact has been phasing down through the year, as you know, price mix was negative by EUR 59 million in Q1, down to EUR 52 million in Q2, EUR 43 million in Q3, and now EUR 36 million in Q4.
The only other material impact that we see here relates to Argentina, whose contribution was affected by the continued devaluation in the peso, and there was no other effects or perimeter movement in Q4. What does that mean for the full year? The overall momentum was broadly similar in FY 2024 versus Q4, with positive organic volume growth contributing EUR 78 million, but being offset by the negative price mix impact of minus EUR 189 million. Revenue for the full year amounted to EUR 3.3 billion, down 2.8% organically. Like we said, the volume impact was indeed positive. Four quarters of positive volume growth, fueled in particular by strong activity in food and NAB.
The negative price mix was largely due to the carryover impact from the 2024 price reductions, went actually down gradually through the year, as we highlighted earlier, -EUR 111 million in H1 and EUR 78 million down in H2. As for other factors, effects mainly related to the Brazilian real, parametric to the contribution of Corsico, which, as a reminder, affected H1 only, and Argentina was down on adverse effects. Going quickly, region by region. Let's start with SWE. We actually had pretty strong and consistent activity of volumes through the year, fueled by strong performance in NAB, and I think all segments achieved a positive like for like volume growth in the year, with the exception of sparkling wines.
This was, however, more than offset by negative price mix developments, and that led to a negative 3.8% organic growth, and full year 2025 revenue of EUR 2.2 billion. Reported growth was 1.6% negative after factoring in the 6 months of extra revenue from Corsico. NEE faced a difficult year with both lower volumes and selling prices, especially in Germany. Food jars performed well, but most other segments, not so much, with a slowdown in activity in Q4, especially in Germany, mostly beer and sparkling. Spirits remained under pressure in the U.K., but the reopening of our second Ukrainian furnace, uh, contributed positively towards year-end, uh, especially in the food, uh, segment. Last but not least, uh, Latam.
So as you can see, um, very positive organic growth of plus eight point five percent, fueled, uh, by the volume growth that we saw, especially in, uh, Brazil, and, uh, as usual, pricing in Argentina. But, uh, being more than offset by the strongly negative effect in both Brazil and Argentina, leading to, uh, a ten percent lower reported revenue at three hundred and eighty-four million euros. And I just wanted to highlight before we move on, in Brazil, the strong contributions from, uh, spirits and wine, supported by the Jacutinga furnace opening mid-year, uh, and that more than offset the, um, the slower beer, beer demand that we saw in, uh, H2. Let's now move to EBITDA, starting again with Q4. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was down to EUR 161 million.
Margin was 21.1% down year-on-year, but higher than the nine months 2025 margin, which stood at 20.7%. Activity impact was again positive in Q4, fueled by a combination of higher organic volumes and some inventory buildup that took place towards the end of the year. Spread remained negative in Q4 by EUR 53 million, mainly driven by lower prices and mix. Overall, as we said, spread again improved through full year 2025. On the other legs, net productivity contributed EUR 10 million. Argentina was down on negative FX, the other leg was negative as the SG&A reduction was offset by the non-recurrence of a number of positive one-offs that we recorded in Q4 2024. Moving on to full year.
The chart, I mean, looks a bit the same here, with positive activity growth and productivity offset by negative spread and FX. Activity contributed strongly, +EUR 60 million, with broad-based growth, especially in food and NAV, and like we said, some positive inventory variation. Spread had a very strong impact, -1, through the year for -EUR 236 million. Like we said, softened materially through the year, -EUR 143 million in H1, -EUR 94 million in H2. Net productivity contributed in line with our 2% cash cost reduction target, here 2.1% or EUR 45 million. We've done the job again on this item, focusing on what is within our control in a difficult market environment.
The other leg was positive in full year, unlike Q4, with positive perimeter and SG&A reduction, partly offset by the negative impact in Q4 that I referred to earlier. Last, the effects weighed on EBITDA through the decline in both the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso. Again, Argentina being recorded separately. The bottom line from this slide is profitability down year-on-year, but still solid, above 20% and in line with our revised 2025 target. Looking at our geographies, let's start with SWE, and I think we'll move a bit faster here. Main message again, EBITDA down year-on-year to EUR 461 million, but with a still solid margin of over 20%. Positive activity contribution, strongly negative, but gradually moderating price mix and productivity, delivering in line.
More challenging situation in NEE, with EBITDA down by 30% to EUR 104 million, with margin down substantially as well. We did see the positive impact from the fixed cost reduction plan implemented in Germany, but this was largely offset by lower volumes and negative spread, including some softer activity in H2, especially in Germany. Two bright spots that I think are worth highlighting, first is the improvement in Ukraine with the reopening of our second furnace, the very strong delivery on PAP, again, focusing on what is within our control. Lastly, Latam. As we saw on revenue, we had a strongly negative impact from FX, and EBITDA was up 3% organically, but down 14% reported to EUR 127 million. EBITDA was supported by strong activity, especially in Brazil, and again, productivity, though spread was slightly negative.
I think we would like to reiterate the very strong profitability of our Latam business, so 33.1% margin in 2025, close to the 2024 levels. This business keeps growing, and it now accounts for nearly 20% of the group's EBITDA. I think the exact number is 18, despite the FX headwinds. Moving to cash. Let's start with one of the key drivers, which is CapEx. Obviously, in a difficult market environment like the one we're facing, keeping CapEx under strict control is obviously key to protect our cash generation. In this context, Verallia's total booked CapEx was down significantly in 2025 to EUR 259 million, or 7.8% of sales. This was made possible by a strict control on our expenditures, as well as the light furnace repair schedule, which led to a lower recurring CapEx.
We continued to invest in our strategic CapEx, so the growth of our business and our decarbonation plan. Strategic CapEx remained close to EUR 100 million, so EUR 97, 2.9% of sales. As a reminder, we commissioned 2 new furnaces in Brazil and Italy. We opened our first hybrid in Spain, in Zaragoza, and we're working on the second hybrid to be opened in France in 2026, in Saint-Romain-le-Puy. Looking forward, let's keep in mind that we have no new capacity investments coming up, and more generally, we intend to keep our CapEx under strict control. How does that translate in into cash flow generation? The main highlight of the year on the free cash flow is basically it doubled in 2025 to EUR 166 million, despite a substantially lower year-on-year EBITDA.
This was achieved through the tight CapEx that we just referred to, as well as a lower working cap outflow versus 2024, despite some inventory buildup towards year-end. CapEx conversion remained very high at 62.6%. It was actually up 100 basis points year-on-year. Operating cash flow was close to that of 2024. Free cash flows were doubled eventually, as interest paid was broadly in line with 2024. Cash tax went down sharply. As a reminder, other operating impact mostly includes the IFRS 16 charge and some restructuring costs. We had, I think, EUR 16 million of them in 2025, mostly relating to Germany, without which free cash flow would have been EUR 182 million. Looking at our leverage now, net debt was broadly stable in full year 2025.
Up EUR 63 million from year-end 2024, after the payment of EUR 200 million of dividends in May 2025. Net debt was actually down in H2, with EUR 100 million of free cash flow generated, and amounts to EUR 1.86 billion at the end of 2025. Leverage is up year-on-year to 2.7x. This is mostly due to a lower LTM EBITDA, and it is broadly flat against September 2025. Lastly, turning to our financial structure and liquidity. I think you know this chart pretty well by now. There have been some changes this year on the back of BWGI's public tender offer. The bulk of our gross debt now revolves around five bonds. The first two are the SLBs issued in 2021.
They were callable, as you know, following the change of control. There are still EUR 170 million of them outstanding at year-end, which, you know, is quite nice, given they're pretty low rates. The third one dates back to 2024 for EUR 600 million. The last two bonds were issued, as Patrice mentioned in introduction, in November 2025, to refinance the bridge loan that itself helped refinance the SLBs that were called further to the tender. Two points to highlight as a bottom line. The first is we have very strong liquidity at EUR 870 million, including nearly EUR 400 million of cash at year-end. We also have a very strong maturity profile with no meaningful maturity until 2028. With this, I'll hand over back to Patrice. Thanks for your attention.
Many thanks, David. Let's move to the outlook here. As for the past two years, the key topic for the outlook is market environment. What could we expect for 2026? When we analyze some key customer comments or feeling about the demand, plus all the market intelligence we have, it invites us to be cautious. We could see some positive expectation for non-alcoholic beverage and food, but stability or slightly down for the other segments. All of that is pointing to market stability in 2026. To be more specific, we expect a continued soft and consumption backdrop in Europe, with Latam likely to outperform. Geopolitical and trade uncertainties will persist and drive volatility for sure. The price carryover effect from prior reductions will gradually phase out, which will ease pressure on inflation spread.
The European furnace closures continue, is pointing to industry overcapacity reduction. Just as a reminder, we know that since the end of 2023, 22 furnace closure have been announced. Overall, stability rather than an upturn is our base case for 2026. Therefore, for 2026, with this market environment we have just described, we aim to deliver an adjusted EBITDA around EUR 700 million, and a free cash flow around EUR 220 million, excluding the plan for structuring cash out. I want to tell you that we do enter in 2026 with discipline and confidence, with strong focus on our competitiveness, cash generation, and deleveraging. We plan to strengthen our competitiveness by implementing our capacity adaptation plan, delivering enhanced PAP savings, and keeping CapEx under strict control around 8% of sales.
Thanks a lot for your attention, and now let's open the Q&A session.
If you wish to ask a question, you may do so by submitting a written question in the box below the player, or by joining the conference call and dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Francisco Ruiz, from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first one is on the outlook. I mean, we said volumes more or less stable and stability in prices, with more than EUR 50 million or around EUR 50 million coming from PAP, why are you still expecting a flattish EBITDA this year? Second, on the restructuring plan, we would appreciate if you could give more detail or tell us when you are going to release this detail in terms of the savings that you're expecting, the cost of this, how it's gonna be mainly performed during this year and the followings. Need more information on this because it's a substantial plan. Last but not least, is on the inflation, on the cost inflation.
On Q4, we have seen a 4% cost inflation versus last year, when we have seen a decline in energy, and theoretically, your energy bill should be lower than in previous quarters as a result of the rolling forward of the hedges that you got. I don't know if you have an explanation for this, and if you could give us what's your expectation for energy for 2026. Thank you.
Okay. Thanks a lot, Francisco, for this three paramount questions. About the outlook, I think you made a quite clear analysis. First of all, let me tell you, that lessons learned from 2025, I want to be cautious. I want to be cautious, taking the lessons learned and the volatility of the environment. On the activity, I have explained our base case for 2026, flat in Europe, some up in Latin America, in a much more dynamic market. About spread, we're gonna still have some carryover effect, but light carryover effect from 25 to 26. We are planning to have a spread normalizing towards 0, with still a bigger question, which is a mixed impact. Because you know that in our spread, we have mix plus price and inflation.
We have seen lately that the mix was quite negative, this was the case in 2025. About PAP, we are going to deliver and push for higher delivery, we have the Forex in front of that, which is always down, pushing down the EBITDA compared to last year. Again, want to be quite realistic, we want to really focus on self-help measure, what we do really control, if we can get additional upside, I would think. As we speak, this is what we are proposing as a commitment, to be around EUR 200 million. For the restructuring plan, I think we'll be back to you in Q2 for our Q2 results with much more details.
What I can tell you as we speak, the intent is to have this plan implemented in H1, to take about 50% of the positive impact in our members this year, and fully, and 100% of the impact of next year, I mean, for 2027. The cost of it, we have negotiations which are starting both in France and in Germany, and we need to let go this properly and according to the social responsibility we want to clearly have with our people there in Germany and in France, to finalize and commence definitively. Cost inflation, maybe David, you want to comment.
Patrice?
Yes.
Patrice, just one thing. I mean, you said that 50% of the plan will be or the savings of the plan will be this year. This is included in the EUR 700 million guidance?
It is about, yeah.
Okay. Okay, thank you.
Okay, to your question on cost inflation. I think in Q4, we had some positive items in Q4 2024, like I mentioned, in the form, I think, of tax credits, which didn't happen again this year. I think that mostly explains the, indeed, the slight increase in the cost base. Otherwise, it would be, I think, broadly flat. Having said that, two items worth keeping in mind. As usual, we did indeed have some relief in 25, including on credit and to some extent on energy. We also had some inflationary pressures, I mean, as usual, from personal costs in particular. As a reminder, I think we still had our, some of our 22 hedges, valid, up until the end of the year. We'd only see the, let's say, the benefit from the end of these, starting 26.
About your guidance for energy in 2026, please?
Sorry, say that again, guidance for energy?
Energy cost in, I mean, on the rolling forward, your hedges. I mean, how much do you expect the energy bill to be reduced in 2026?
This is not a number we are going to provide. What we could tell you is that, you know, that we are fit, and it was a headwind for us in 2024 and in 2025, based on our aging policy. What I can tell you is that the penalty we had in 2025 is behind us when we are entering in 2026. We have our energy costs, which are coming down. If I want to be a little bit more precise, we're gonna be at market level for 2026. Obviously, depending on the volatility, you know, we see a lot of volatility. As we speak, probably we are there.
That means how much versus this year? I mean, a gross figure in terms of variation. Is it 10%, 15% lower?
I think we really want to speak more, you know, think in terms more of spread, to be honest. At the end of the day or the year, that's what's gonna matter.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thanks, Francisco.
The next question comes from Jean-François Granjon from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Four questions from my side. The first one, could you give us some more color regarding the negotiation you have currently for the pricing with your customers? Can you implement some new price increase or not? The second question concern the spot effect. I understand that the carrier should be lower compared to previous year, but do you expect a negative price mix, mixed effect? The third question concerned the cashout expected coming from the restructurations , and this should impact, I think, the free cash flow. Could you give the amount of the cash out expected this year? On the last questions, you confirm that the CapEx level at 8% of the sales.
Do you expect minus EUR 300 million CapEx for all CapEx in 2026? Thank you.
Okay. About negotiation and pricing, I mean, obviously, we are not commenting in details the pricing evolution and what we are negotiating with our customers. What I can tell you is that compared to 2025, we still have some slight carryover effect. We're gonna have, depending on the geographies and depending on the segments, some slight decreases. What is much more important for us, we do expect a normalization in our spread towards zero. The big uncertainty we have is mix. As you know, it's quite complicated to estimate the mix and what we have seen in 2025, it was already the case in 2024, is that mix is pulling down the potential numbers was negative. About cash out for our adaptation plan, industrial adaptation plan.
Obviously, negotiation is going on, it's going to take a few weeks and even few months for friends. What we do expect, I can give you the order of magnitude, is going to be a restructuring cost, most of it being social cost, between EUR 40 million-50 million, most of this impact in 2026. Some will be coming in 2027, most of it in 2026. CapEx, yes, we do confirm CapEx that, due to the market environment, due as well to some CapEx depreciation and negotiation we are able to do. We do see our CapEx maintaining the level around 8% of our sales. This is what we see for 20 for 2026 and certainly onwards as well for 2027. This is what we see. I think.
Thank you. Just a related question regarding the mix. If you could just remind us, the main difference in terms of mix between the different segments with the sparkling wine, non-alcohol beverage, et cetera?
Well, that's a tricky one, to be honest, because, you know, there's I mean, some, you know, some segments are inherently better priced than others, but it is also enhanced complexity in certain products. I'm, you know, I'm not sure we can have, like, a generic answer to this one, unfortunately.
Okay. Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Saul Casadio from M&G plc. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just have a couple. The first one, with regards to your, the restructuring plan that you are considering. What is approximately the capacity as a percentage of your capacity that will be taken out as a result of this plan, if it's implemented in full? That's my first one. Thanks.
The capacity we are speaking about here, so meaning, one furnace in Cognac, is around 200 kilotons per year. 200 kilotons per year. To our full capacity, it's about, it's 3%?
3%.
It's around 3%.
As a reminder, we have around 60 furnaces, in Europe, and we're gonna be, shutting down these 3, subject, obviously, to us.
I think what is important to mention on top of this adaptation plan, you do remember that obviously, market is down since the end of 23, at the point of time, there was a big question about the market recovery. We are expecting, to be honest, a quickest recovery of the market. We were working on making adaptations, short-term adaptations, temporary adaptation, but to try to understand if we are facing some contractual market situation versus structural market situation. Now, it's clear that we came up with a conclusion that in Germany, due to the overcapacity we observed on the market dynamics, it's no more contractual, but it's much more structural. For us, it's really to redeploy the business in Germany on three sides, six furnaces for better qualitative and contributive business.
This is really the strategy. When we speak about France, it's about the same. You know that in France, we had some contractual cold stuff, temporary shutdown and all of that. Here, we came up to the conclusion as well that what we have seen in Cognac after booming volumes in 2022, in 2021, 2022, is that it was not really structural as well, and we are much more normalizing, and we are back to 2018, 2019 volume. This is why we decided as well to make a structural decision to adapt there. As the furnace is coming to the end of line, end of life, there is no rationale to reinvest on this furnace or this market.
Okay, thanks. Just to clarify that I have understood correctly. If we put together the capacity of the French, German sorry, I have the fire drill. Sorry, i f we put all together, the U.K., the French and the German, that represent roughly 5% of your total capacity?
3%.00
3%.
It's 3%.
3%. Okay. Okay.
And the capacity reduction. Oh, you're close to fly?
Sorry. No, it's just i 'm sorry.
I'm kidding. No, to be precise, the capacity reduction is in Germany and France. If I want to be precise, in U.K., it's not a capacity reduction, it's a closure of one furnace and the reopening of another one, but which is much more efficient in terms of competitiveness, in terms of cost, and in terms of CO2 emissions. Is it clear?
Yeah, no, it is clear. Will you consider more actions? Your competitors have done more on the supply side in terms of taking out capacity. Are we likely to see more on this side?
Well, I mean, it's all about the geographies and the segments we are in. Obviously, the geography, which is suffering much more and which really has overcapacity, is in office Europe and especially in Germany. This is why we have taken measures there. If I'm back to what we had in 2022, in 2022, we are operating 10 furnaces, and here we are planning to move to 6. It means we have done already part of a job in 2024 and in 2025. In Germany, moving from 10 to 6 furnaces. The job has been done, I would say. In France, we are making this decision for Cognac, which is really a specific segment in which, I mean, we need to face reality.
Then for South of Europe, I mean, Italy and Iberia, Spain and Portugal, we don't need to adapt capacity there. I'm not speaking about Latin America, we're on the opposite. I mean, we are facing a much more dynamic market, and we have opened for the past two years, two additional furnaces in Brazil, putting our Jacutinga in production capacity from one to two furnaces.
This move, j ust to reiterate what we said earlier, this move is really consistent with what's been happening in the market. If you look at the I think 20 or so furnace closure announcements that have taken place over the last two years, most of them relate to, let's say, Northern Europe, so Germany and Benelux in particular.
Okay. Just a quick follow-up on this one. In terms of the industry, considering all the closures that you have mentioned, how much do they represent of European capacity? How much capacity has been taken out in the industry over that period of time, roughly speaking?
Sure. The European market, I mean, if you really look like a broad scope of private definition, is around 20 million tons. We estimate and then so, a furnace on average tends to be around 100K tons. There's been, so including ours, I think we're now at 22 furnace closure announcements. Around 20, so basically 10% of the European capacity.
Okay. That's good. My last one, if I may, is on your IG commitment, and clearly noted what you have done on the dividend in terms of reduction and the option to take it in a share form as so reducing the cash out. Question is, do you think that will be enough to stay IG, or do you need to do more to maintain your rating? Thanks.
Yes, this is our plan. This is why we have proposed, with a fully, in full responsibility, this dividend option. According, and when we see where it could put our leverage at the end of the year, if we do the job, I mean, this is a nice trajectory which will keep our investment grade. Yeah, for sure. This is the plan. This is one of the key commitment.
Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Especially working on the cash as well, for sure. Thank you.
There are no more oral questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for the written questions.
All right, well, thanks a lot. We have quite a few written questions. Having said this, as is often the case, some are pretty much the same as the one we had in, on the call. Let me just have a look. Okay, let's start maybe with the first question from Máté Kovács. Two questions. First one is: With the closures, will you be able to restore the EBITDA margin with increased capacity utilization, or is this a preventive move from you to stop the decline going forward? Second question, on the demand side, do you see a changing mix in the past couple of quarters which could affect the profitability in the future?
On the first question about restoring the EBITDA margin, obviously it's part of the objective, improving competitiveness and over time, restoring and improving our margin, EBITDA and margin, this is part of it. I do believe that, I mean, since 2024, and with the market downturn in 2023, we are in a kind of low cycle. Frankly speaking, we are expecting a much more quicker recovery, but what we are quite confident in is that this cycle will go up. We move from a low cycle to a better cycle. When we see the over capacity being reduced over time, especially in the main countries, we do believe that it's going to support a better asset use. All of that with one key objective, which is restoring and improving margins.
This is what we want to do. On the demand side, this is what we have explained, and we are part of that. What we see globally is that we see that non-alcoholic beverage and food are much more segments which are showing opportunity of growth. We see that on the overall, it's much more flattish or even on steel wine, it is declining depending on the countries. Obviously there is a mix of segments, and what is important for us is to make sure that we are focusing as well, our sales effort, our product offers, our innovations on this growing segment.
Food is clearly one, and this is why, by the way, in Italy last year, we did open additional capacity dedicated to food, which will bring some upside starting in 2026 and in the years to come. This is what we see here.
Thank you, Patrice. Another question from Claudio De Ranieri. You talked about a normalization of the spread towards zero in 2026. Is this comment made looking at a full year, or does it mean that you plan to be towards zero at the end of the year, for example, Q4 2026?
Well, our ambition here is to full year, speaking full year, and again, with the caveat of the mix, for which is the mix, which is bigger for control, but the full year is our objective, yeah, towards zero.
Thank you. Two questions from Andrea Giuseppe Frey . Can you provide a guidance for leverage by end of year and for 2027? Question about IG, I think that one was answered already. One question about visibility on the margin in Q1 2026, is it sequentially stable, up or weaker?
I think on leverage, frankly, I think you have, you know, you can, we clearly expect it to come down. I think you can, you know, fairly easily do the math. We're planning for around EUR 220 in free cash flow, minus the restructuring cash outs that Patrice referred to. On the other hand, we have a maximum cash out of EUR 20 million on dividend. That gives you an idea basically of, you know, the deleveraging prospect. I think on the margin in Q1 2026, I don't think we want to comment necessarily on that one. Maybe just keeping in mind that last year was quite a low point in the year in Q1, I think we're at 18%, so there's clearly room for improvement there. Okay, just to see whether there's a few questions, but I think, yeah.
Question from Iñigo Eguizábal. Pricing and volumes in 2026 by region? I don't think we've not sure we wanna go much further on this one. The cost of the capacity shutdown we've covered. Indeed, I confirm that the EUR 220 million free cash flow target excludes the restructuring cash out. Yep. With that, we have no further, written questions. I don't know if there is anything back on the phone. Okay.
The next question comes from Jean-François Granjon from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Just one last question from my side. You mentioned the target to come back to a more normative level for the EBITDA margin. What is this level? I see on the past, on the low end, you have reached a 20%-21% EBITDA margin. After that, you are more on a magnitude of between 24%-25%, with an exceptional year in 2023 to reach more than 28%. What is for you, the normative level for the group? I would say, 24%-25%, or lower than that?
Jean-François , this is a very good question. You're going to have to be patient a little bit. We'll be back to you on the capital market day at the end.
Yes, for sure.
No, but I mean, this is the name of the game, on how we can improve the efficiency of our business step by step. Normalizing the situation after this quite volatile and difficult to manage a top-line level. Obviously, 26, and this is why, again, we want to be cautious with the top line. Self-concentrated on making our job on what we do control. Obviously improving the margin, then moving toward step by step and incremental improvements after year. We will be back to you for the capital market day, with more details.
Yes. Okay. Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Okay, I think we are done. Thanks a lot for your attention and for your continued engagement with Verallia. Again, we are entering in 26 with clear priorities, competitiveness, cash generation, deleveraging, and the implementation of our industrial footprint adaptation in Europe. All of that with disciplined capital allocation. Thanks a lot. Have a good day, and speak to you quite soon for Q1 results. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.