Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Deutsche Börse AG Analyst and Investor Conference Call Regarding the Q3 2021 Results. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to Mr. Jan Strecker.
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today to go through our Q3 2021 results. With me are Theodor Weimer, Chief Executive Officer, and Gregor Pottmeyer, Chief Financial Officer. Theodor and Gregor will take you through the presentation today, and afterwards, we will be happy to take your questions. The presentation materials for this call have been sent out already via email and can also be downloaded from the investor relations section of our website. As usual, this conference call will be recorded and is available for replay. Let me now hand over to you, Theodor.
Thank you, Jan. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, from my side as well. Let me start today's call with an update on the implementation progress of our strategy. Afterwards, Gregor will be presenting the financial results as always in greater detail. The third quarter was the first period for quite some time where we did not see significant cyclical swings in either direction. The 18% net revenue growth resulted purely from the secular and inorganic growth efforts, which form our growth strategy. Let me highlight the key developments in the different reporting segments along our value chain. In our pre-trading business, we saw the Qontigo Index and Analytics segment delivering the 10% growth we are targeting as part of our midterm plan, and this although some COVID headwinds remained. In the Institutional Shareholder Services segment, we again achieved a performance significantly above our initial expectations.
Amongst others, this was driven by double-digit growth in ESG-related products and services. For our financial derivative segment, Eurex, some cyclic headwinds remained, but secular growth due to product innovation offset them. With lower comparables and a more uncertain market environment, it increasingly feels like Eurex performance is improving. In our commodity segment, EEX, the secular growth trend of higher market share related to the proliferation of renewables was complemented by cyclical tailwind due to the significantly increased energy prices. In the foreign exchange segment, 360T, we delivered solid growth areas and rates in a low volatility environment and thus continued to outperform our main peers. In the cash equity segment, Xetra, similar to the development of the Eurex, we observed a slight improvement of the cyclical environment since August with some year-over-year volume growth.
While small net interest income headwinds persisted in the third quarter for our post-trading segment, Clearstream, secular growth exceeded our expectation and resulted in solid year-over-year growth. With 28% organic growth in the third quarter, the Investment Fund Services segment, IFS, continued to be the by far best-performing asset of the group. Once more, significantly exceeding our even high growth expectations. It is great to see our organic growth and the benefit from M&A are coming together in this area. While every quarter is different, we expect to now enter a phase with many more like-for-like comparables on the cyclical side. This will help us to continue showing the true organic and inorganic growth potential inherent in our business model.
The potential upswing of the cyclical parts of our business resulting from rising inflation, potential tapering of the central banks, and ultimately rising rates in the longer term, would be quite powerful additional growth potential that is not yet included in our guidance. Since the announcement of our midterm targets last year, we have made good progress towards our 10% compound annual growth rate formula, as you can see on slide two . As we all expected, net revenue in the 1st half of this year was under some cyclical pressure because of the record activity levels at the beginning of last year. However, we were able to successfully mitigate these effects with continued secular net revenue growth and an increasing M&A contribution. Due to the cyclical headwinds we experienced, we decided to manage the organic operating cost as prudently as possible. In addition, our continuous improvement efforts are paying off.
Therefore, the overall operating cost increase in the first nine months of the year was entirely driven by consolidation effects. With this, we are well on track to deliver upon our guidance for 2021, and development is also fully in line with the expected Compass 2023 growth trajectory. In order to deliver upon our midterm targets, we'll continue to pursue our successful M&A agenda. The M&A focus areas you see on page three of the presentation are the parts of our business that benefit the most from an inorganic increase of breadth and scale. Let me briefly summarize the current developments of our M&A activities. The integration of our latest major acquisition, Institutional Shareholder Services, is very well on track. The initial guidance of more than 5% net revenue growth has proven to be on the conservative side. Our ambition is double-digit growth, which also includes further small acquisitions.
We are not just buying new businesses, but we are also continuously reviewing our existing portfolio of assets. In 2020, we sold, as you are fully aware of, the Regulatory Reporting Hub to MarketAxess, and in September, we announced the sale of our 50% stake in REGIS-TR to Iberclear. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter next year and will result in a proceed of around EUR 50 million. This helps us fund new initiatives. The acquisition of the majority stake in Crypto Finance AG is now scheduled to close in the fourth quarter. Especially with its crypto storage offering, it is an important strategic step on our way to building a trusted and fully regulated digital asset ecosystem in Europe. In terms of further M&A opportunities, the high valuation environment we are currently in is certainly challenging.
We continue to see concrete opportunities, mainly in pre-trade trading data analytics and in the front business, where our requirements of a strong strategic fit, good synergy potential, sensible financials, and high closing certainty are met. Before I hand over to Gregor, let me give you an update on our portfolio of minority investments, which includes a broad range of attractive businesses along our value chain, as you can see on slide four of your presentation. We have invested more than EUR 200 million across our corporate venture capital portfolio and other minority investments, and we have now decided to generally increase the funding by another EUR 200 million on a case-by-case decision basis. The first new investment is a Series B investment in WeMatch, which is a Tel Aviv-based fintech company focusing on trading workflows for the wholesale derivatives industry.
In the third quarter, we saw a very favorable development of our portfolio. The value of our stake in AI-powered tech platform, Clarity AI, increased by more than EUR 30 million due to a new financing round. Since this stake is held at fair value, it resulted in a positive impact, of course, on our income statement. The value of our stakes in Forge and Trumid has also developed very favorably. Both organizations are now valued at roughly EUR 2 billion or more, with Forge planning to go public in a SPAC deal. Those stakes will continue to be hidden reserves since they are not held at fair value. With that, let me now hand it over to you, Gregor.
Thank you, Theodore. Let me start with the detailed financials in the third quarter on page five of the presentation. Organic net revenue growth of 7% was entirely driven by secular factors. For the first time this year, cyclical net revenue drivers were broadly neutral as we entered a more like-for-like comparable environment. Inorganic net revenue growth amounted to 11% and was mainly driven by the consolidation of ISS in February. Consequently, the operating cost growth was almost entirely driven by consolidation effects. The EBITDA includes the results from financial investments of EUR 37 million, which benefited from the revaluation of our stake in Clarity AI. Depreciation amounted to EUR 73 million and includes effects of around EUR 25 million related to purchase price allocation of acquired assets in accordance with IFRS. On this basis, the cash EPS amounted to EUR 1.74, an increase of 36%.
On page six, we show the development of financials in the first 9 months of 2021. With the addition of the third quarter, these numbers are now starting to improve, but they still suffer from the effect of the strong cyclical headwinds in the first half of the year. In order to compensate for these effects, we engaged in prudent cost management, which limited the overall operating cost increase in the first 9 months to consolidation effects. On slide seven, we provide an overview of the three components of net revenue growth in the first 9 months compared to the same period in 2019, which is the Compass base year. Consolidation effects resulted in a compound annual growth rate of 5%. Secular growth, being the key component of our strategy to increase net revenue, developed as planned with a CAGR of 6%.
The cyclical growth contribution was negative at a CAGR of -2%. This was caused by much lower net interest income at Clearstream and lower trading activity at Eurex, particularly in index derivatives. I am now turning to the quarterly results of the segments, starting with Eurex on page eight. While we saw some temporary spikes on average, market volatility was still relatively low in the past quarter. As a result, index derivatives and matching fees continued to decline against the previous year. This was partly offset by speculation around inflation and long-term rates, which made interest rate derivatives grow by double-digit rates. Some of the cyclical headwinds for Eurex are offset by product innovation, particularly in index derivatives. With this, we address multiple trends. We support the trend towards more sustainable investing and are the leading global provider for ESG derivatives.
We see ourselves well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend towards passive investment. For instance, by being the leading exchange in terms of open interest in MSCI derivatives. We also continue to support the futurization of OTC derivatives. For example, with the expansion of our Total Return Futures segment. In addition, we are promoting the trend towards micro-sized contracts and crypto derivatives, where we see a substantial increase of client demand. Our commodity business, EEX, shown on page nine, started to accelerate in the third quarter for two reasons. First, we saw continued secular growth through market share expansion in light of the trend towards renewables. Second, gas and power prices started to rise significantly in August, which resulted in a substantial increase of short-term trading and hedging activities. Judging from the current market environment, this development is expected to continue well into autumn and winter.
Let me now turn to page 10 and the FX Business. Even though FX market volatility continues to be on very low levels, we saw good volume and net revenue growth in the third quarter. This was particularly driven by the onboarding of new corporate and buy-side clients, with a solid pipeline for the coming quarters. Proof of the success is single-digit year-to-date net revenue growth against comparables that include a record first quarter last year. With this, we are outperforming our biggest peer in Europe. Next, I am turning to page 11 in our Cash Market, Xetra, where we saw broadly stable net revenue despite a weaker market volatility environment compared to last year. Operating costs were managed to be flat as well. EBITDA declined because we booked the initial double-digit gain from the better performance at Tradegate last year.
This year, the contribution amounted to now regular level at around EUR 7 million per quarter. For our post-trading segment, Clearstream, on slide 12, the third quarter was the first with overall net revenue growth since Q1 2020. This is due to the remaining small interest rate-related headwinds being overcompensated by solid growth in custody and collateral management. Due to increased amounts of bonds outstanding and higher equity market valuation, the assets under custody are currently growing above our expectation. Despite all the market turbulences, the last month of negative year-over-year growth of assets under custody was March 2018. This shows the steadily growing nature of our post-trading business very well. The Investment Fund Services segment, which you'll find on page 13, even improved its strong performance compared to the first half year, with 28% organic net revenue growth in the third quarter.
This was based on the continuous onboarding of new clients and portfolios, both in custody and on our distribution platform. The synergies between the two offerings are now starting to play out nicely, and we expect growth rates above our guidance to persist for the time being. In addition, we see further M&A opportunities to increase both the scale and scope of offerings. To give you more insight into our high-growth business segments, we are inviting you to a series of business deep-dive meetings. We will start with the ISS segment on November 10th and the IFS segment on November 29th. We'll continue this next year. Slide 14 shows the Qontigo segment, which benefited from net revenue growth across all line items and achieved our 10% cost target. EBITDA includes a gain of around EUR 32 million from the revaluation of our minority stakes in Clarity AI.
On slide 15, we show the Institutional Shareholder Services segment, which again, outperformed our expectation in the third quarter. Growth is mainly driven by the strong performance of corporate solutions and ESG analytics. The well-established governance solution business also showed mid-single-digit growth. After announcing three smaller M&A transactions this year already, a few additional projects are well underway. Beyond this, we see further opportunities to complement the business inorganically going forward. The combination of strong organic growth prospects and the addition of M&A from time to time should result in double-digit overall net revenue growth. The last page of today's presentation shows our guidance for 2021 in the context of our Compass 2023 midterm plan. Although Eurex developed weaker than expected for cyclical reasons, we are completely in line with our guidance for the full year at around EUR 3.5 billion net revenue and around EUR 2.0 billion EBITDA.
This is because we saw better than expected secular growth, particularly in the IFS segment. The inorganic growth component is slightly larger than expected due to early closing of the IFS acquisition. Furthermore, th e accelerated full purchase of FundCenter and the favorable development of some minority investment is a tailwind. This concludes our presentation. Thank you for your attention. We are now looking forward to your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question now, please press nine followed by the star key on your telephone keypad. In case you wish to cancel your question, please press nine and star again. The first question comes from Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good afternoon. One question. You're now at EUR 1.45 billion EBITDA. You might say you're a bit ahead of your run rate for the full year. I also was wondering how you think about in particular cost spending going into the fourth quarter and whether you have kind of a buffer. Eurex looks to be off to a good start in October, or could you also come out above that level? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Benjamin for the question. Far with regard to the cost topic. You have seen over the first 9 months is we are basically flattish on a constant portfolio basis, and that's also my expectation for the fourth quarter. We confirm our guidance for the full year and do not want to speculate around buffers. Our confirmation is that we achieve our targets.
Understood. Thank you.
The next question comes from Arnaud Giblat with Exane BNP.
Hi. Yeah, good afternoon. I've got a question on IFS. I was wondering if you could give us a bit more color around the acquisitions of the fund platforms and the successful upselling you've had. What are the kind of sizes of migrations that you're having towards the fuller fund platforms, the margin uplifts that take place as a consequence of an upsell? What's the pitch you're having to distributors to convince them to move to fuller service? Thank you.
Thanks, Arnaud, for the question around Investment Fund Services. We have a big advantage, a big USP. We have established here a platform, a process, Vestima platform, where we have a more standardized process, and we have more than 50% cost advantage compared to the back office processes within the banks. Therefore, there's cost pressure in the banks is always the case. We have a high benefit here. Here we are also ahead of our customers.
So far we have such a long customer pipeline who want to connect to our platform or to do outsourcing or even to sell our business. All of these three options, I think you know. That we are very confident that the current level on an organic basis and in the first half-year was 26%, in the third quarter was 28%, purely on organic growth. On top there's M&A inorganic growth. This will continue over the next year. Very positive, very strong development.
Thanks.
The next question comes from Gurjit Kambo, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Just a couple of questions. Firstly, in terms of the Crypto Finance, can I just confirm you're saying there'll be EUR 20 million of revenues in the final quarter? Is that for the full quarter, firstly? Can you give us any indication of what sort of margins that business makes? That's the first question. Then secondly, just around the, I guess, the more cyclical businesses. I think there's been some changes in the tick sizes of some of the products. Now, has that had any impact, either negative or positive, do you think, on volumes? Those are the two questions.
Okay, Gurjit, thank you. With regard to Crypto Finance, the EUR 20 million we said, that is basically the full year number for 2021, roughly. As we expect consolidation now within the next week, it will be just a fraction out of that. With regard to 2022, we are very confident that you will see in that asset high double-digit growth on the revenue side. Even the asset currently also has a nice profitability, and obviously, that's also a scalable business because Deutsche Börse will help Crypto Finance here to scale up. So far, you will also see a nice margin increase here.
With regards to the Eurex tick size, Gurjit , this is something we are regularly reviewing, depending on the development in the order books. Indeed, in summer, we decided to change the tick size for some of the key benchmark index products. This has been done in consultation with market participants. We've consulted with around 100 buy-side firms, it's beneficial for them because it reduces the implicit transaction cost if the tick size is smaller. Evidence has shown this in the past in similar constellations on Eurex and other exchanges, therefore, it should be beneficial to the buy side going forward.
Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Jochen Schmitt, Metzler.
Thank you. Good afternoon. I have one question on custody net revenues of Clearstream. In Q4 2020, these revenues were impacted by fee rebates, if I remember correctly. Will there be a similar effect in Q4 this year, or may we assume quarter-on-quarter growth for Clearstream's custodian net revenues in Q4? That's my question. Thank you.
Yeah, Jochen, thanks for the question. As we have mentioned in our presentation, so the Clearstream custody business is a constantly growing business. So far, over the last 3 years, every quarter it basically increased, and that's also our expectation for the next quarter, but also for the next year. Overall, we guide some 3%-5% net revenue growth on a secular basis, if you exclude basically the NII impact. I do not expect that there's a top in Q4.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Tobias Lukesch, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yes, good afternoon. A quick question on the IFS segment, the actual surprise this quarter. The EUR 69 million in revenue. Could you quickly elaborate how sustainable that is, where the uptick is actually coming from, and how we should basically expect the Q4 performance to be? Thank you.
Indeed. IFS was a very strong quarter with the EUR 69 million, where we had an increase on a like for like basis of 16%. Yes, a year ago, we basically said when we were in the process to acquire IFS that we expect at least a growth of 5%. Meanwhile, you see our announcement where we basically changed it to basically 10% growth, including some smaller M&A contribution. The additional, let's say, 6% in Q3. That was a very positive development. The reason is that specifically the two areas, so the ESG data analytics has much higher growth rates, is clearly far above 20% growth rates.
The more we continue with it, so the share of that kind of product group increase. So far, this will also help us to increase our growth rates here. The second segment, what is growing double digits, is the Governance Solutions, and topics where we are basically concise customize in the different area. Even the Governance Solutions are basically where IFS is coming from as a mid-single-digit growth. Overall, I would not guide that we say we will continue with the 16% within the next quarter, but double-digit growth is an expectation what we have here for the next 3 years.
You would not expect a sudden drop in Q4, right? Mid-60s to the higher 60s is something which is sustainable then?
Yeah, I expect something above EUR 60 millions, right.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Andrew Coombs, Citi.
Good afternoon. Three questions from me, please. Number one, the revised guidance on IFS revenues, previously more than 5%, now more than 10%. In your commentary, you say that embeds some smaller M&A. Perhaps you could just clarify how much of the increase from more than 5% to more than 10% is because you now have more conviction on the M&A pipeline versus how much of the improvement is organic related? That would be the first question. Second question would be on the results from strategic investments and minority investments. You talk about 2x money multiple. Could you just provide a bit of color on the accounting methodology there? Is it IPEV guidelines, third-party auditing? Just any clarity you can provide on how regularly you revalue those stakes.
The final question on Eurex. I think you previously said EUR 20 million revenue opportunity on some of the MSCI derivative product launches. Any update on there and on terms of timeframe for recognizing that? Thank you.
Yeah, Andrew, thanks for the three questions. I think I covered the IFS question, we repeat it. We say it's a double-digit growth, I don't want to say it's more than 10%, we say it's basically double-digit growth here. We said we include some smaller M&A contributions here. That's in the range of, let's say 2%-3% roughly, the organic growth is 7%-8%. Roughly in that area, I would expect that IFS will continue to develop over the next 1-2 years. That's the answer to the IFS question. With regard to the minority investment, here we changed methodology from an accounting perspective for 2 or now for 3 assets. The majority of investments we did in the past will not shown with an impact in the P&L.
It's just shown in the equity in our balance sheet. That more than 2x multiple we show in the equity. You have to decide that when you acquire assets, then you have to decide what kind of accounting methodology you pick. Therefore, the Clarity AI, our 360X, and now the new asset we made as an investment, Wematch. These three assets currently, we will show them as a fair value valuation in our P&L. Any time there is another investment areas, A, B, C, D, that will be revalued, and obviously we expect that we increase our value here, but there's obviously a fluctuation behind it. It's a market pricing what we take here, so no internal cash flow analysis, discounted cash flow, whatever. It's market prices.
For these three assets, again, Clarity AI, 360X and Wematch, you will see impact in the P&L. For all the other investments we did in the past, you will see impact purely in the equity. For the future, as we said, we also want to invest another EUR 200 million for the next 3 years as the majority will be shown as fair value. Third question, Eurex, MSCI derivative. Yes, very positive development. We said in our speaking notes we are now number one in the MSCI derivative on par on a global basis. You are aware that we have the lead here for the MSCI in Europe and also in Asia, but not in U.S. Therefore, we expect really more than double-digit growth on this element. It is more than EUR 20 million already this year.
I always like to compare, look at our EURO STOXX product, we make EUR 400 million-EUR 500 million. I don't want to tell you that out of this more than EUR 20 million MSCI derivatives, you will see some comparable we show on the EURO STOXX side. It shows you that there should be high potential for us really to increase this value here in MSCI derivative.
That's great. Thank you, and sorry for making you repeat your answer on IFS. I appreciate it. Thanks.
The next question comes from Ian White, Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Hi. Afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple of quick follow-ups from me, please. Firstly, is there any help you can provide us on the venture capital portfolio and how to think about further growth in the value you expect to accrue to the group there over the next 18 months or so, please? I wondered if there are any internal projections you might maintain for any of those minority stakes, for example, that could help to inform that discussion. Just secondly, is there anything you'd say about the pipeline for analytics revenues in Qontigo? I wonder if there are any specific plans there to boost sales efforts significantly during the fourth quarter now that the COVID travel restrictions have been very substantially relaxed. Those are my two questions, please.
All right. Yes. With regard to the venture portfolio, maybe to explain it a little bit broader. So far, over the last 3 years, we invested some EUR 200 million. The focus is technology, is innovation, digital assets, and so on. So far, we are quite successful from a financial perspective is that it's more than multiple of 2x . As important is from a strategic perspective, that we learn new technology, new assets, new developments, digitization, tokenization. That is of strategic value for Deutsche Börse. Therefore, we do not rule out that if we identify an investment where we own, let's say some 10%-20% in the beginning, that we are also interested to acquire a majority if it's core strategic for Deutsche Börse.
For instance, for 360X, where we started to go into non-financial asset class, like real estate, like art, or like esports. We think we can create with the competencies of Deutsche Börse as a IT technology leading provider, that we can create new marketplaces here. Our expectation is that we really increase the value. For 360X, for instance, what is under the leadership of Carlo Kölzer, who developed, in his former career, the FX business here in Germany, 360T. He was able to create, close a unicorn. Why is it not possible to create another unicorn here in 360X? That is basically our investment, where we are committed, and we have also good reasons to believe that we are successful here.
With regard to your second question around Qontigo and analytics, yes, indeed, we see now a positive development here. Still, we had headwind out of the COVID situation, specifically in the U.S. market. We see progress here in Q3, and we expect further progress here in Q4. Q4 is usually the quarter with the strongest net revenue, new basis in Qontigo, specifically in the analytics business, and we expect the same will happen this year. You will see continued growth and double-digit growth is our expectation for the next years for Qontigo overall and including analytics.
That's very clear. Thank you.
The next question comes from Martin Price, Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for the presentation. My question was actually on the post-trade business. I was wondering how the new German Electronic Securities Act potentially changes the way you can offer issuance, custody, and settlement services. To what extent that could be a game changer in terms of cost savings or margins within the domestic central securities depository or broader Clearstream business over the longer term? Thank you.
Yes. Thanks, Martin. Good question around technology. Yes, obviously, it's very good that Germany opens up here now for digital certificates, basically, and that helps to boost our strategy. We invest currently in a new digital platform for Clearstream. Obviously, any regulation that supports us here is very positive. Our principal logic is that we go for a digital CSD, for digital ICSD. That tokenization is a core element here. You know that this tokenization we did now for our collateral management activities, what is bundled under HQLAx, where the most important market participants already connected. It's very much appreciated because we are overall able to increase the efficiency of the markets here.
Then we will see what kind of benefit we have to give to the market participants and what kind of benefits we can keep for us. Overall, I think it's a very important development. With our leading technology, I think we are ahead of the others, and that will have positive impacts for Deutsche Börse.
That's great. Thanks, Gregor.
The next question comes from Michael Werner, UBS.
Thank you very much. Thanks for the presentation. Two questions, and apologies if you addressed one of these before. We saw in Q3 the financial expenses had come down quite sharply, and I think you allude to some tax refunds leading to a lower number in Q3. I was just wondering what that number would have been in a more normalized environment? Second, I was just wondering if you guys as a company have been seeing any pressure with regards to wage inflation or expect any pressure from wage inflation or any other type of inflation. I know you guys have an annual productivity drive to improve productivity by 2%-3% a year. Is there any way to potentially increase that productivity efficiency to address any inflationary pressures on the cost side? Thanks.
Thanks, Michael, for the question. With regard to the financial result, there's a one-time effect of EUR 7 million. We show a EUR -4 million, so the real number would be EUR -11 million. The effect is out of the reduced rate for provision for interest on taxes. So far in Germany, the rate was 6%, and that was from an authority perspective, said that this is not the right number as an interest rate. We included now some 3%, basically half of it. The effect overall on the outstanding tax provisions is roughly EUR 7 million, as a one-time effect in Q3. With regard to the second question of the wage inflation. Yes, obviously currently there's higher inflation rates, and so far, we have not decided what is the inflationary salary increase next year. We are still in the process to judge on that.
You can see our commitment that in principle, we want to increase the efficiency in our process via our continuous improvement process, that we are able to cover that inflationary increase on salaries, and that is also our target for the next years.
In addition, Michael, Theodor Weimer speaking here. The majority of our people, the vast bulk of our costs on the HR side are coming from people who are not organized by the trade unions. Where we have voluntary component in there, and therefore we do not expect a huge inflation drift higher than in the past. That's not the case.
Thanks, Theodore. Thanks, Gregor.
The next question comes from Johannes Thormann, HSBC.
Good afternoon, everybody. Johannes Thormann. One follow-up question and one other, please. Both, on Clearstream, you elaborated that the revenue growth guidance on NII, excluding the NII effect. How large will be the miss of the NII guidances here, and what do you expect as a rebound next year? Secondly, at 360T, your FX trading unit. We saw good revenue growth, but this did not translate into better EBITDA. Is this business still too small? How can you scale this business? Thank you.
Well, the first question on NII, I think we achieved now the bottom with some roughly EUR 50 million NII this year. It's basically purely for 30 basis points fee income for euro and for U.S. dollar-denominated cash collateral we hold. That should be the bottom. With regard to the outlook, it depends basically when the interest rates, and here the short-term interest rates will increase. You have seen some indications that U.K. will potentially do right. There are also expectations that U.S. could do something next year. Euro, I don't know. You have basically to make your assumptions, but in principle, there is upside potential for next year and for 2023, what I would also expect. The customer cash balances are still around, let's say, roughly EUR 15 billion, 50% is US dollar, 35% is euro, and 15% are other currencies.
Now you could make also your math, what you would assume for the next 1, 2 or 3 years. With regard to 360T EBITDA, there's an impact out of one-time costs on the EBITDA number. The real operational number is that we have also double-digit growth on EBITDA. Let's say 10% on revenue, and then we have at least the same on the EBITDA if I exclude some one-time allocation costs here. There is a scalability, and this is ensured and will happen in the future.
All right. With this, we answered the last question on today's call. Thank you very much for your participation and have a good day.