Once again, welcome to everybody, ladies and gentlemen, here at Taunusanlage, Frankfurt. I also would like to welcome all those who once again have joined us in front of their computer screens. During the pandemic, we have all learned that virtual formats also have got their advantages. We retained some of the good elements, and that means you can not only follow us in the digital format, but you can also send us questions via Zoom or email, and you can do so in German and in English. Furthermore, all of the participants can also follow the event in both languages in two channels. Like last year, on the German channel, we will not translate the English questions and answers, so that's where you will always hear the original, which has been the request of the past.
Furthermore, this year, the event is not only broadcast on our website, but also on LinkedIn for the first time. Welcome to all those who have joined us on LinkedIn. It's going to be a true hybrid event, and that's why we've also tried to make sure with our arrangement and setup here that you can follow the event in the best way possible. Please give us your feedback on this later on as well. Now, so much for my introduction. Let's start with our CEO, Christian Sewing, and our CFO, James von Moltke, who will now give you an overview of the results of the year 2022 and also an outlook onto the next year. Then I'll be back here for the Q&A session. With that, it's over to Christian Sewing.
Yeah.
Ladies and gentlemen, dear journalists, I'd also like to extend a warm welcome to all of you. After 2 years of meeting only virtually, I'm very pleased that many of you have come to Taunusanlage in person again. Of course, I'd also like to extend an equally warm welcome to those who have joined our annual media conference digitally. Today, we're looking back at a year that was marked by political tensions, economic challenges, and human suffering. This applies first and foremost to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Even after almost 1 year, the images of the horror that this war brings to the people continue to stun me. At the same time, I admire the courage, resilience, and solidarity of the Ukrainian people.
It is our hope they will be rewarded for this, and it is our duty to support them in their fight against the aggressor. This is about nothing less than defending our values and freedom. The war, ladies and gentlemen, has also created serious economic consequences, especially with regard to the energy and commodity markets. This has contributed to making 2022 a year of economic challenges, a year of extreme volatility in the markets, a year of price increases not seen in decades. A year of massive but necessary central bank responses. All in all, it's been a year of complexity and uncertainty. Ladies and gentlemen, the management board is very proud of what we've achieved as a bank in this environment.
As announced this morning, we closed 2022 with a pre-tax profit of EUR 5.6 billion, which is an increase of 65%. We have thus turned in the best result in 15 years. This is indeed a milestone for Deutsche Bank. We owe this success to strong growth in our client business, but also to further reduction in costs. Let's start with revenues. Compared to 2021, which was already a very good year, we were able to grow revenues by another 7% to EUR 27.2 billion, the highest figure since 2016, even though at that time, we were still active in more businesses, such as in equity sales and trading.
This exceeded our expectations at the beginning of the year and is well above the EUR 25 billion revenue benchmark we set ourselves for 2022, at the beginning of our transformation. At the same time, we maintained cost discipline. We reduced non-interest expenses by 5% year-on-year to just over EUR 20 billion. We adjusted costs in spite of increasing prices, which declined by 3% on a currency-neutral basis. We're just as disciplined in managing our risk, something which is particularly important these days. Our loan loss provision at a rate of EUR 1.2 billion, or 25 basis points of average loan volume, was higher than in 2021. Granted, in such a challenging environment, this is still a very moderate level. We thus underlined what has distinguished us for many years.
This is first-class risk management. These results show two things. First, how well we held our ground in another challenging year. Secondly, how successful our transformation has been over the past three and a half years. Ladies and gentlemen, we achieved the key goals we set ourselves in 2019, despite the double shock of a pandemic and a war in Europe that back then no one could have foreseen. When it comes to our post-tax return on tangible equity, we had set ourselves a target of 8% for 2022. Today, we posted a reported ROTE of 9.4% for 2022. Admittedly, this includes a valuation effect on deferred tax assets, but it still reflects our improved profit outlook. As you know, we had already notified the market of parts of these effects.
In terms of costs, we shifted from an absolute target to a cost-income ratio over the course of the transformation. We had set ourselves a low to mid-70% target for the end of 2022. At 75%, we remained in this range despite the cost pressures in an inflationary environment. Finally, we also kept our promise that we will always maintain a solid balance sheet during our restructuring. At the end of 2022, our CET1 ratio stood at 13.4%, thus clearly above our benchmark of 12.5%. When it comes to our leverage ratio, we delivered almost exactly on target. These are just plain figures, but actually they are the expression and result of immense efforts and great achievements of our employees.
They have taken on our strategy from day one and identified with our goals, despite all the restrictions and sacrifices and cuts for them that came with it. Even in the most difficult times, they've given their all to ensure that we as a bank can be there for our clients in the best possible way. This commitment cannot be overestimated, and on behalf of the entire management board, I'd like to thank all my colleagues in our bank most cordially for this. Everything that we have achieved during these three and a half years of transformation, we achieved thanks to you. It is your success story. Ladies and gentlemen, let me take a closer look at what we have achieved in recent years in order to get where we are today. I'd like to do this looking at the five priorities that we established in 2019.
Priority number one was the exit from non-strategic businesses and activities. Here we delivered consistently. We exited institutional equity sales and trading and divested our hedge fund business, as well as the IT subsidiary Postbank Systems and most recently, our network of personal financial advisors in Italy. Our impressive progress here is reflected in the figures of our Capital Release Unit. Since the middle of 2019, we reduced leverage exposure from non-core activities by slightly over 90% and risk-weighted assets, excluding operational risks, by more than 80%. At the same time, we realigned our four core businesses so that they deliver maximum value for our clients. This was our second, and as I see it, most important priority, because this focus on clients is what enabled us to achieve the stable and balanced growth of recent years. Let me give you a few figures.
Although we exited certain businesses and reduced our balance sheet, our revenues in 2022 were nearly EUR 2 billion higher than in 2018. At the same time, the bank has become significantly more diversified. Nearly two-thirds of our revenues now come from our stable businesses, a large share of which is generated by the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank. After years of low interest rates, these divisions can finally realize their full growth potential. In 2022, both achieved double-digit revenue growth and record results. Asset Management faced a tougher environment, with most asset classes experiencing a decline, yet it still performed resiliently.
Despite last year’s decline in stock market valuations, assets under management have grown by over EUR 100 billion since the start of our transformation. This does not diminish the performance of our Investment Bank, which has developed strongly and consistently since 2019. Some feared clients would leave after we exited equity trading, but instead, we gained market share due to our focus on Fixed Income and Currencies. This strength allowed us to offset industry-wide declines in origination and advisory, demonstrating that our divisions are well-balanced and robust.
Overall, we exceeded the earnings forecasts presented at our 2019 and 2020 investor deep dives across all businesses. Our third priority was cost reduction. At 75%, our cost-income ratio is now 18 percentage points lower than in 2018. During this period, we cut our annual run rate of costs by over EUR 3 billion. This proves that Deutsche Bank can reduce costs efficiently while maintaining quality. We will continue to monitor expenses closely to sustain this positive trajectory and will not compromise on cost discipline.
We aim to achieve the next EUR 2 billion in savings by 2025, as announced last March. Beyond this, we are implementing additional measures to reinvest in the business and counteract inflation. Cost discipline must never jeopardize our future viability. Therefore, as part of our fourth priority, we committed in 2019 to invest a cumulative EUR 13 billion in technology by the end of 2022 and an additional EUR 4 billion to reinforce internal control systems. Not only did we meet these targets, but we also made nearly EUR 15 billion available for technology projects, accelerating progress in this critical area.
We streamlined our technology landscape and decommissioned several programs and apps, reducing technology costs by EUR 300 million year-on-year in 2022. Thanks to strategic partnerships with Google Cloud and NVIDIA, as well as our own efforts, we increasingly leverage cloud-based applications. Last year alone, we doubled their number, enhancing speed and efficiency. Unity, one of our most complex IT projects, is now in its final phase. At the turn of the year, we migrated 4 million private client accounts from Postbank to Deutsche Bank systems. While not everything went perfectly, progress continues.
Our team is preparing the next major customer migration at Easter. Across the bank, we have strengthened controls, increasing staff in control functions by more than a quarter. We recognize that work remains, but all investments in technology and controls were funded internally. This also applies to expenditures for restructuring the bank. Our fifth priority, considered unattainable by some in 2019, has been successfully achieved.
Over the past three and a half years, our CET1 ratio remained above 12.5% every quarter, dipping below 13% only twice, despite regulatory changes and transformation costs. We offset these effects with increasing profitability in our core bank, aided by the success of the Capital Release Unit. Contrary to some pessimistic forecasts, this unit delivered exactly what its name implies: freeing up capital through rapid risk reduction. James will provide further details shortly. This solid foundation now allows us to return more capital to shareholders.
After distributing a significant sum for the first time last year, we propose increasing the dividend by 50% to EUR 0.30 per share at this year’s annual general meeting. While this is an interim step, sharing our success with shareholders is central to our strategy. We aim for a 50% payout ratio by 2025, targeting a total capital return of EUR 8 billion for 2021–2025. We remain committed to this target despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties. e aim to return a total of EUR 8 billion in capital for the years 2021 to 2025. We are and remain committed to this amount, despite the uncertainties in the geopolitical and economic environment.
Our ambition is supported by continued profitability growth, which we also expect in 2023, and a robust capital structure. Share buybacks remain part of our toolkit for this year, but we exercise prudence and retain flexibility. Considering the current macroeconomic and regulatory environment, it is too early to provide specific volume or timing for buybacks. We are optimistic that uncertainties will diminish over the year, allowing us to reward shareholder loyalty. Already, market reactions are increasingly positive. ry environment, we consider it too early to make any statements of volume and timing for buybacks in 2023. We are optimistic, however, that uncertainties will further diminish in the course of the year and that we will be able to reward our shareholders for their loyalty in this way. Now, already now, stock market reactions are increasingly positive.
Between July 2019 and the start of the war in Ukraine, our shares rose by 90%, reaching levels not seen since early 2018. When the market declined due to the war, our shares have since recovered significantly. Analysts’ opinions are more favorable, with 8 of 17 actively covering recommending a buy, nearly half. Only 2 recommend a sell. Over the past 18 months, we received four upgrades from leading rating agencies, most recently in October when Moody’s raised our credit ratings for the second time in 14 months, despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
Now, this is a very important signal of trust and confidence. It brings a dual benefit: clients can do more business with us, and at the same time our funding costs decrease. We also received multiple awards across all businesses. To highlight one: in 2022, we were named Bank Risk Manager of the Year by Risk.net for the second year in a row. In a year when risk management is more important than in decades, this award is particularly valuable. Equally gratifying is the positive feedback from clients and the unwavering support of our employees. All of this encourages us to continue on our path with determination and confidence.
In a moment, I will explain the next stage of our strategy. First, James will give a detailed overview of our figures for the past year. James, over to you.
Thank you, Christian. A warm welcome from my side. I would like to discuss our 2022 financial results in more detail. As Christian mentioned, pre-tax profit was EUR 5.6 billion, up 65% over 2021. Despite headwinds in the global economy, we delivered our best results in 15 years. The turnaround in profitability since our 2019 transformation launch is considerable. Profit growth was driven by sustained revenue growth in our core business and continued cost discipline. Risk provisions remained contained despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Profit after tax was EUR 5.7 billion.
In addition to growth in pre-tax profits, we recognized a valuation adjustment of EUR 1.4 billion on U.S. deferred tax assets in Q4, reflecting our strong U.S. business performance since our transformation began. This partially reverses negative valuation adjustments recognized in 2019. It does not affect taxes payable. This positive tax effect contributed about 270 basis points to our 2022 post-tax return on tangible equity. Let’s now look in more detail at profit drivers, starting with revenues. In 2022, revenues grew 7% year-on-year to EUR 27 billion, marking annual revenue growth throughout our transformation.
This reflects our more focused business model, which offset the impact of business exits. We demonstrated strong client support in a volatile and uncertain economic environment. Every core business contributed to this revenue growth since 2019. This growth accompanied substantial cost cutting: annual costs reduced by around EUR 3 billion since 2018. In 2022, non-interest expenses were EUR 20.4 billion, down 5% versus 2021. Adjusted costs, excluding transformation charges and bank levies, were flat to 2021, but down 3% if adjusted for FX movements.
We achieved these reductions despite investments in technology and controls, inflationary pressures, and higher-than-expected business volumes. Against this backdrop, the cost-income ratio was 75% in 2022, above our initial ambition at the start of our transformation. Still, this is down 10 percentage points year-on-year and 18 percentage points versus 2018. This proves our ability to grow and invest while maintaining cost discipline. Turning to risk management: our provision for credit losses remained contained in 2022, despite the slowing economy amid the war in Ukraine. .
Provision for credit losses was EUR 1.2 billion in 2022, higher than 2021’s favorable conditions. Still, at 25 basis points of average loans, it remained contained. This aligns with guidance given in March 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Deutsche Bank’s loan loss provisions relative to average loans are well below peer group averages, reflecting our high-quality, diversified loan book, about half of which is in Germany. It also demonstrates disciplined risk management. As Christian will elaborate, we are slightly more optimistic about economic development. In 2023, provisions are expected to remain between 25 and 30 basis points.
Currently, we expect provisions to be at the lower end of that range. Let’s now discuss capital, another key dimension of our transformation. We finished 2022 with a CET1 ratio of 13.4%, comfortably above our minimum target of 12.5% throughout the transformation. We faced impacts from transformation-related costs and regulatory changes, reducing CET1 by over 270 basis points. These were offset by growing profitability and success in the Capital Release Unit, which contributed around 45 basis points to CET1 during the transformation.
I will return to this shortly. First, our four core businesses. Starting with the corporate bank: in 2019, we said it would play a crucial role in Deutsche Bank’s refocused business. Our 2022 results demonstrate that. Revenues grew 23% to EUR 6.3 billion, the highest ever for the corporate bank. We recorded strong growth across all business areas. Rising interest rates and business volume growth, including EUR 18 billion in deposit growth and EUR 9 billion increase in average loans during 2022, contributed to 39% growth in net interest income. Fee and commission income grew 7% during the year. nd a EUR 9 billion increase in average loans during 2022, contributed to 39% growth in net interest income. Fee and commission income grew by 7% during the year.
The corporate bank more than doubled its profit before tax to EUR 2.1 billion, resulting in a post-tax ROTE of 12.5%. Profitability was driven not only by revenue growth but also by a 5% reduction in non-interest expenses. The investment bank grew revenues by 4% in 2022, driven by our fixed income and currencies business, which increased 26% to EUR 8.9 billion—the highest level in 10 years. The realignment of this business as a key part of our transformation strategy paid off. Growth in FIC more than offset lower revenues in origination and advisory, which fell by EUR 1 billion amid a significantly lower industry-wide activity.
Profit before tax in the investment bank remained substantial at EUR 3.5 billion, slightly below the very strong 2021 results. This partly reflected a 6% rise in non-interest expenses due to FX movements and higher bank levies. The investment bank’s post-tax ROTE was 9.2%. The private bank also had a strong year. Revenues grew 11%, or 6% adjusted for specific items such as the gain on the sale of our financial advisory business in Italy and the impact of the BGH ruling in 2021. We delivered solid revenue growth in both the private bank Germany and the international private bank.
We attracted EUR 41 billion in new net business volumes in 2022, including EUR 30 billion in assets under management and EUR 11 billion in new client loans. The private bank delivered profit before tax of EUR 2 billion—more than five times the 2021 figure—driven partly by an 11% reduction in non-interest expenses, reflecting lower litigation and restructuring costs. Adjusted costs decreased 5%, highlighting the benefits of transformation measures and disciplined cost management. Asset management, DWS, demonstrated resilience amid challenging markets. Revenues declined only 4% to EUR 2.6 billion, while a 4% rise in management fees was offset by lower performance fees. Profit before tax fell 27% to EUR 598 million due to slightly lower revenues and a 10% increase in non-interest expenses from strategic hirings, technology investments, and normalization of certain non-compensation costs.
A 4% rise in management fees was more than offset by substantially lower performance fees. Profit before tax also came down by 27% to EUR 598 million, reflecting this modest decline in revenues and also a 10% rise in non-interest expenses. The rise in costs reflected strategic hirings and investments in technology and also a normalization of certain non-compensation expenses such as travel and marketing activities, which recovered from the low levels during the pandemic. Costs also include an impairment on intangible assets related to a historical acquisition, which we recognized in the fourth quarter. Let me conclude by coming back to the Capital Release Unit. That unit has delivered on or ahead of our expectations on all dimensions. The CRU has been consistently successful in freeing up capital from non-strategic activities.
The Capital Release Unit performed in line with or ahead of expectations. In 2022, leverage exposure was reduced by 43% to EUR 22 billion, a 91% reduction since the unit’s inception. Since 2019, this contributed around 55 basis points to Deutsche Bank’s leverage ratio, which was 4.6% at year-end 2022, close to our 4.5% target. The CRU also reduced risk-weighted assets (RWAs) by 63% to EUR 24 billion, ahead of the EUR 32 billion target. Excluding operational risk, the RWA reduction since mid-2019 was 83%. Loss before tax fell 32% to EUR 932 million, and adjusted costs dropped by around EUR 2.5 billion—more than 75% compared to pre-transformation levels. As a result, the CRU was net capital accretive, enabling more capital deployment for clients and shareholders.
In 2022, the CRU reduced its loss before tax to EUR 932 million, down 32% YoY. Adjusted costs fell by around EUR 2.5 billion, over 75% compared to pre-transformation levels. As a result, the CRU has been net capital accretive for Deutsche Bank, as the RWA reduction’s benefit for CET1 since 2019 outweighed de-risking costs. This enables more capital deployment to client activities, core business growth, and shareholder distributions. All in all, the CRU has fulfilled its mandate. As announced, it will cease to be reported as a separate segment.
Its remaining portfolio will be reported under the corporate and other segment. That concludes the 2022 review. Now, I hand back to Christian Sewing. uch.
Thank you, James. This brings us to what lies ahead. The geopolitical and economic situation is complex, but we are prepared. We have proven in the past that we can handle such situations. Latest data suggests a global recession may be milder than feared, or even averted. Swift, decisive government action has positively impacted and stabilized consumer confidence. Companies have proven robust and resilient, looking to the future with optimism, especially since China reopened after the COVID lockdown.
In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index improved for the fourth consecutive month in January, and ZEW economic expectations returned to positive territory for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mild weather contributed to sharply falling energy prices, helping Europe navigate winter. Our economists expect German GDP to be flat in 2023, with slight 0.5% growth in the Eurozone, and 1.1% growth in the U.S.
For 2024, however, the outlook for the U.S. is less favorable in the second half of the year. There is a risk that significantly high interest rates could trigger a recession during that period. I have no doubt that both the Fed and the ECB will continue to raise interest rates, and it is important that they do. Departure from this path would jeopardize the fight against inflation and pose a risk to long-term economic development. This is why we support the central banks maintaining a consistent course. The risk exists because inflation might be stickier than many anticipate. So far, we expect consumer prices to ease in 2023, and even more so in 2024.
However, we should not lose sight of the risks underlying this forecast. These come particularly from the labor market, where skilled worker shortages exist in both Europe and the U.S. Additionally, China’s reopening, while welcome, could have a strong inflationary effect if demand for goods and raw materials rises rapidly. This is why we cannot afford to be complacent. Overall, we are slightly more optimistic, as I said, but uncertainties remain, and the volatility that marked the past year will continue to some extent in 2023. Inflation is still present, and other risks have not disappeared.
This applies first of all to the war in Ukraine with its unpredictable outcome, but also to other conflicts, such as tensions between the U.S. and China. Global supply chains have eased somewhat but remain fragile and prone to disruption. The same applies to energy supply, especially in Europe. The multi-year refinancing wave starting this year presents challenges for companies and countries. Currently, risk premiums have declined, which has boosted confidence. However, weaker borrowers remember well how funding costs soared last year. In a volatile environment with rising interest rates, similar shocks cannot be entirely ruled out. We will need to manage a variety of risks, as we have demonstrated in the past.
We want to continue what we have done successfully in previous crises: managing our clients’ risks. We help them secure investments and assets, access liquidity and short-term financing, and hedge against risks. At the same time, it is important not to lose sight of the future. Preparing for digital and sustainable transformation remains crucial, and we work on this together with our clients. Persistently high volatility due to macro shifts, advancing digitalization, and the transition to a sustainable economy—these were the three key economic trends highlighted at our investors deep dive in March last year.
We also explained why, as a global house bank, we are well positioned to support our clients with these trends. We have been their financial partner for years, across every cycle, and understand their needs. Our unique global network provides local expertise in around 60 countries. We are experienced risk managers and advisors with the balance sheet strength to provide financing. We offer sophisticated products and modern digital platforms, deploying the full spectrum of our bank to benefit our clients. Last year underscored how we bring these strengths to life, and how much our clients value us as a global house bank in times of volatility and uncertainty.
In 2022, more than 80% of all revenues generated by the corporate bank came from clients purchasing more than one product. This demonstrates the depth of our client relationships. We serve clients internationally. Over half of revenues generated with global companies headquartered in Germany were booked outside our home market. Compared to 2021, our corporate coverage team increased revenues by more than 40% across fixed income and currency products, especially FX and interest rate hedges. We are the risk managers for our clients. This reflects both the market environment and the trust our clients place in our expertise.
This is evident in the many tailor-made and often innovative products launched last year. Many of these solutions now include a sustainability component. Clients’ demand for sustainability solutions remained high in 2022 despite economic uncertainty. This is positive news, as we must not relent in the fight against the climate crisis. At Deutsche Bank, we continue to contribute to a more sustainable economy. In 2022, we appointed Jörg Eigendorf as our first Chief Sustainability Officer. He works across all businesses and infrastructure functions to embed sustainability in our processes, develop attractive ESG products, and intensify...
...the transformation dialogue to help clients become more sustainable themselves. This is key to achieving ambitious sustainability goals for the broader economy. In 2022, we surpassed $200 billion in sustainable investments, a target originally set for 2025 but advanced twice. Achieving this now is a major milestone and the first step toward EUR 500 billion by 2025.
At our sustainability deep dive on March 2, we will elaborate on the next steps of our sustainability journey. I do not want to anticipate now, but we have much in store. This applies not only to sustainability but to the entire bank. At last year’s investor deep dive, we announced that the bank’s transformation will be followed by a phase of sustainable profitability. In this phase, we will leverage our strong position in all four businesses to expand market share, increase revenues and profits while maintaining cost discipline, generate significant capital, and continue returning value to shareholders.
On the one hand, we want to use this to make meaningful distributions to our shareholders, and on the other hand, to reinvest in our business to enable further growth. Of course, during this phase, we are also focused on making rapid and significant progress regarding our controls and regulatory deficits that still exist in some areas. Ladies and gentlemen, this is just as important as increasing profitability. Strong controls are the foundation for sustainable growth, and we acknowledge that we still need to improve. Last year, we defined the goals and ambitions we aim to achieve by 2025, and today we reaffirm them.
We aim for average annual revenue growth of 3.5%–4.5%, equivalent to more than EUR 30 billion by the end of that period. Cost-income ratio is targeted at below 62.5%, assuming roughly stable annual costs. As mentioned earlier, our savings by 2025 will exceed the EUR 2 billion originally announced. This allows us to preserve space for investing in future growth despite high inflation. On this basis, we aim for a post-tax return on tangible equity above 10%, while maintaining a CET1 ratio around 13%.
Finally, we set a target of EUR 8 billion in capital distributions to shareholders for 2021–2025. The payout ratio is to rise to 50%, as previously mentioned. These objectives remain firm. Given the volatile environment and uncertainties, the path may not be linear. However, we have the right strategy, business model, and most importantly, the right team to succeed even in difficult times. We aim to improve each year, including in 2023. The month of January has already strengthened our confidence.
With high interest rates and continued business growth, we expect 2023 revenues to be roughly at the midpoint of EUR 28–29 billion. Costs are expected to remain essentially flat compared to 2022, and loan loss provisions should be similar to last year. Overall, this would allow for another increase in pre-tax profit. This is what we at Deutsche Bank are working toward with discipline, determination, and a focus on our clients. In times like these, our clients do need Deutsche Bank. utsche Bank.
We saw exactly this in 2022. Clients need their global house bank. This need will increase further, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for your attention. James and I look forward to your questions.
Yeah. James.
Thanks, Christian. Thanks, James. This brings us to our Q&A session. In the room, we proceed with a quick show of hands, after which you will be entered on the list. For Zoom participants, you have two options: ask your question directly via Zoom or send an email to annual.mediaconference@db.com
No, I'm Tom Simms today, says the lady, and then Marta Orosz. Yes.
You know Marta Orosz.
Yes, Marta Orosz from Reuters. Good morning. Could you elaborate on this positive tax effect and explain it to us? According to reports, certain settlement costs for litigation and regulatory measures were also recorded in Q4. Could you provide details on this? Please forgive me if I answer in English, as I’m not fully comfortable in German in such a Q&A session.
The DTA represents the net present value of future tax savings associated with our tax characteristics, mainly related to past losses, or tax loss carryforwards. These are revalued on the balance sheet periodically. When evidence shows the value of these tax characteristics has increased—based on a greater estimate of future profitability of our U.S. operations—the value rises. This is recognized in the P&L. In this quarter, that amounted to $1.4 billion. Recall that in July 2019, we wrote off about $2.8 billion of deferred tax assets, reflecting a more conservative view of their future value.
From time to time, these assets are revalued, just like peers do. This quarter's amount was larger than expected, as Christian mentioned. We also had a smaller amount in 2021. Regarding litigation, we don’t comment on individual cases; simply, provisions were higher than anticipated, and that concludes my answer. Marta, thank you for your question.
Next questions are from Michael Maisch, Handelsblatt; Olaf Storbeck, Financial Times; and Hanno Mußler, FAZ. First, Michael Maisch, Handelsblatt. It seems the list is not fully up to date. First Jasmine—the lady is not using a microphone. Interpreter, sorry. In 2022, this tax effect saved your return target, I believe 2.7 percentage points. The cost-income ratio was near the upper end of your target after adjustments. Against this backdrop, what went wrong that required this tax effect to reach targets?
What gives you confidence that all improvements will allow you to reach your 2025 targets, unless there is another positive tax effect? Ms. Osman, let me start. Reaching what we achieved after three and a half years of transformation is remarkable—something few expected. We are satisfied. The bank is on a growth trajectory. Stable businesses grew beyond expectations, giving us confidence that a >10% post-tax return on tangible equity is achievable. Therefore, focus should not be on the single tax effect alone.
We have a robust bank capable of generating sustainable profits and gaining market share. We anticipated the tax effect in 2022. In early 2022 and 2019, two events were unexpected: the war in Ukraine and related valuation adjustments. We managed them well with EUR 1.2 billion, though EUR 300–400 million higher than planned. Additionally, higher levies were paid into the European banking fund, which was beyond our control.
Of course, there were also impacts over the last two or three years related to the pandemic and market volatility. Naturally, some cost increases were impossible to predict. Achieving the return target of more than 8%, or slightly below 8% if we adjust for unplanned tax effects, was still within expectations—we had previously included EUR 400 million. I would like to highlight another number: the core bank aimed for a 9% return on equity, and in 2022, we reached 8.5%.
Taking into account the higher loan loss provisions due to the war, this aligns precisely with the 9% target. Great results—this bank delivered, thanks especially to all its employees. If we see that market shares increased in every quarter, including the last, and observe the start of this year, I am not worried about our 2025 targets. The 8.5% in the core bank excludes the tax effect. Yes, that's correct. Thank you for that clarification. Next question: Olaf Storbeck, Financial Times. Please wait for the mic.
Last autumn, you completed two transactions involving Adani and accepted shares as collateral. How many shares remain on your books? What are the associated risks for the bank? Has there been a margin call, or will there be one? My second question is about DWS. Stefan Hoops has suggested increasing free float to make the share more attractive. What is your view? And what do you think about his proposals to change the governance structure, including the KGAA structure? Let me start, and James will add comments where necessary. Mr. Storbeck, I’m sure you understand that we cannot comment on individual clients. .
I can only refer to what James explained impressively: over the past 15 years in risk management, we consistently outperformed peers. This demonstrates that we have our risks under control and can structure and diversify them. Regarding DWS, we welcome new incentives and momentum—that’s what drives progress. Stefan Hoops has adapted quickly to his new role and achieved a lot, particularly considering 2022 was a challenging year.
Of course, we are always considering ways to make the share more attractive. That is normal and necessary, but there is nothing to announce at this stage. Any decisions will first be discussed internally. Thank you. Next question: Hanno Mußler, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Please wait for the mic. Good morning, Mr. Sewing. One 2019 target was to cut 18,000 jobs. The headcount suggests this did not happen—can you clarify? Will you reduce jobs and simultaneously increase headcount to cover vacancies?
A second key question concerns CumEx: how many employees are currently under investigation, and how many are current or former board members? What is Deutsche Bank’s current exposure here? Regarding headcount, there are three points to note. During the transformation, Mr. Mußler, we underwent a learning curve and internalized many roles, which proved more efficient and cost-effective. We planned headcount by cost, not positions, resulting in the internalization of roughly 6,000 external employees. n because that turned out to be more efficient, more cost-effective for us. We did not plan by positions, but by costs, and therefore a lot of external employees were internalized.
We welcomed this approach, as it improved efficiency. During this period, we also continued to hire university graduates, slightly above plan, to invest in the bank’s future. Cost discipline remains crucial, but not at the expense of shaping the future. Two additional points, Mr. Mußler: in a controlled environment, we increased headcount by more than a quarter. We now feel comfortable with this level.
We are on the right track but needed additional hires in key functions. What makes me most confident is growth. The bank is stronger, with higher revenues, necessitating support in both business and infrastructure functions. Last year, we switched from managing absolute headcount numbers to monitoring the cost-income ratio, allowing better oversight. This explains our current headcount strategy. We continue to monitor and have demonstrated our ability to reduce numbers where appropriate.
Regarding CumEx, we cannot comment as proceedings are ongoing. Thank you for your understanding. Next, Steven Arons, then Philipp Habdank, and Jean-Philippe Lacour. First, Steven Arons from Bloomberg. Mic, please. Good morning. I have two questions: first, on buybacks. Other banks announced major buybacks and dividend programs. Deutsche Bank has not, despite a CET1 above 13% and your positive macro outlook. Can you elaborate on why? You mentioned share buybacks in 2023—how will deposit beta factor into this?
Thanks, Mr. Arons. The answer is partly contained in your question: yes, we will execute buybacks as part of the EUR 8 billion capital return commitment for 2021–2025. Dividend increases, as announced today, are part of this strategy. Buybacks are included in our toolkit, and we remain committed to our pledge. I outlined the geopolitical and economic outlook and propose waiting a few months to observe developments before acting.
First and foremost, our priority is to support customers and clients. Looking at recent performance, I am convinced that buybacks are part of our toolkit. We have adopted a conservative approach at Deutsche Bank, which has served us well. When the timing is appropriate, we will make decisions confidently. Let us wait for the first quarter and the next few months. If conditions persist, I am confident we will execute accordingly. James, anything to add?
Deposit beta—essentially how quickly banks pass on interest rate rises to their customers. We model that in our forward-looking analysis, as do all other banks. As you've heard from some of our competitors, the banking industry is outperforming what its models might have suggested for beta. In other words, how quickly interest rate rises are being passed to customers. This interest rate cycle is quite unusual in two ways: the level from which we are moving—negative in Europe, essentially zero in the United States—and the pace at which we’re moving. The models don’t fully capture these entry point effects.
We’re traveling, as many of our peers are, well below the model betas. We would expect that to catch up over time. While that lag persists, it has benefited the interest rate-driven earnings of the banking sector, including Deutsche Bank.
Next question is from Philipp Habdank, Börsen-Zeitung. Good morning. I have three questions: first, regarding corporate banking. The revenue increase was quite extreme. Since 2019, revenue growth had been flat. Now, with interest rates rising, revenues are up. How much of this increase is attributable to high interest rates? Second, what does it take for corporate banking to be sustainably profitable and earn capital costs in a sustainable way? Third, regarding loan loss provisions.
Which areas worry you the most? Is it private clients, retail clients, or real estate? What concerns you this year?
Regarding your questions, on page seven of our financial data supplement we show the composition of revenues in the Corporate Bank over the years, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. Net interest income was up 39%, fee and commission income up 7%, and there are other revenue components as well. Concerning sustainable profitability: negative interest rates had created an unnatural environment, making a large portion of our deposit books structurally unprofitable.
Now we’re seeing a normalization of that performance, which has had a dramatic impact. We think this is sustainable because positive, upward-sloping yield curves are normal. The corporate bank can now benefit from this normalization. It’s also important to remember that, as Christian mentioned, we serve clients as a risk manager, payments counterparty, global network, lender, and deposit taker. As business volumes and assets under custody grow, so too will the bank’s business.
You’re seeing this not only in interest income but also in other forms of income. We believe growth in revenue is sustainable.
Regarding sustainable growth in the corporate bank: of course, we benefit from interest rates, but most income is outside net interest income. This demonstrates the underlying strength of client business. Previously, negative rates were a drag, but now we see growth across deposits, payments, and trade finance. Looking at our plans for the next two years, growth outside net interest income will be larger, which shows that corporate bank revenue growth is sustainable.
This isn’t limited to the investment bank. In global cash management, rating upgrades gave us a significant positive effect. Many institutional clients rely on us for cash management and benefit from these upgrades. I’m confident in the sustainability of corporate bank revenues and return on equity. This core business is well-positioned and will continue to thrive. Regarding loan loss provisions: we don’t anticipate problems because we manage risk well.
We don’t have concentration risks that would concern James or myself. Regarding sectors with funding or refinancing risks and high interest costs, we remain vigilant—commercial real estate and leveraged lending, for example. Our reduced risk appetite since Q1 last year reflects this. For normal company and private client business globally and in Germany, our portfolio diversification is strong. James already mentioned this.
Half of the loan book is in Germany. Most of it is private mortgage business with moderate loan-to-value ratios. Our underwriting standards are strong. In a year without war and with stable disinflation, at a rate of 25 basis points, we are on track and competitive.
For the consumer loan portfolio, particularly mortgages: a conservative loan-to-value ratio is the first line of protection. The German mortgage market features long-term fixed rates—average 13 years—so refinancing risks are limited over the next several years. This is a key reason for our confidence.
Our first Zoom question is from Jean-Philippe Lacour, AFP. Good morning. Can you hear me? I have a bit of echo. My question is on clients. Clients seem extremely important—you’ve mentioned them about 30 times. Can you give an idea of client numbers? Did you gain new clients last year, or did revenues rise mainly due to deeper penetration, selling more products per client? Banco Santander claims 160 million clients—perhaps an aspirational figure for you.
Could you provide a ballpark figure? Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, for idiosyncratic reasons, will lay off thousands of people. One colleague asked about headcount. Can you exclude redundancies given current cost pressures?
Yeah.
Thank you. I’ll start, and James will add. 160 million clients is an ambition, not a target. Revenue increase is due to deeper client relationship penetration. I cannot give client figures across all businesses—each division is different. In the corporate bank and investment banking, client numbers are rising. Here’s why:
Because, as I mentioned, our ratings became better, and we feel clearly that many customers are looking for an alternative to American banks, especially in investment banking and trading. They want alternative banking relationships. This does not change the fact that American competitors are excellent banks, but clients want an alternative. This is also reflected in our market share. We have deeper penetration of client relationships and additional clients in wealth management and private banking. We benefit from continuous growth. We invested in this area, including hiring additional relationship managers in Germany and internationally, which supports a clear growth path.
It's a mixture of deeper customer relationships and new clients. Clients approach us saying, "Hey, you're back, and you can be my expert." Clients appreciate our deep expertise, and we are on a good path. Regarding Goldman Sachs and other competitors, I cannot comment on their actions. In 2018, we had to reduce headcount, and over a three- to four-year average, we reduced more than competitors.
Some competitors increased headcount in the last 1–2 years and are now taking it back. Regarding the EUR 2 billion savings, incremental programs were decided by the management board. There is no guarantee we won’t reduce headcount in some areas, but we also want to grow, including investing in technology. That would be the honest answer. I hope this clarifies, Jean-Philippe. Update on questioners: Meike Schreiber, Patricia Carsman, and Isabella Bufacchi. Meike Schreiber, Süddeutsche Zeitung: Hello, good morning. A few questions on the CRU.
If I see correctly, the portfolio has not been reduced as envisaged. Leverage exposure is still twice the planned size. Analyst consensus expects EUR 1.9 billion accumulated until 2025. Is this in line with your guidance? Losses also result from high administrative costs—will they reduce markedly when transferring to corporate and others? Another question: these are mostly trading assets—why not transferred to the investment bank?
Question.
Regarding CRU assets moving to corporate and other: see page 53 of the analyst deck. Relative to the 2019 target set in July 2019, we subsequently raised it due to features including liquidity reserves of about EUR 6 billion at the end of last year. Relative to the adjusted target, we are below and comfortable. This portfolio will run off over time. rget, but relative to that adjusted target, we're below and comfortable with where we stand. The answer to your question is this portfolio will simply run off over time.
Most of the portfolio has been worked to the point where contracts can simply run off. There’s no clear avenue to accelerate, so management differs from the investment bank. Keeping it segregated avoids distracting core business management. We can isolate, risk manage, and see these assets to maturity.
Weighted average maturity of remaining assets: about six to seven years. On costs, CRU hit EUR 800 million or less in 2022—a rapid decline. Costs supporting these assets likely will be half or less in 2023, and half again by 2025.
Allocated CRU costs run off quickly. Remaining losses, with essentially zero or slightly negative revenue, are primarily due to costs being pushed out of the company. This will determine the future drag of the portfolio as reflected in corporate and other.
Good.
Does this answer your question? I hope so. Next question.
Hi, good morning. Two questions: 1) Can you give a flavor of customer behavior for corporate and households at the start of the year? 2) Outlook for the Investment Bank—what are you seeing now, and what should we expect in the coming quarters, including leverage financing?
Customer behavior, particularly in Germany, is cautiously optimistic. Different clients behave differently. Global corporates in Germany navigated 2022 challenges robustly—they have alternatives and can move supply chains faster than smaller midcap companies. Concerns vary by company size; midcaps face more difficulty passing on prices.
Midcaps are more concerned about the outlook, so controlling inflation is critical—it is “the poison of the economy.” EUR 200 billion support program was appropriate, even if not fully used. In retail, credit behavior shows no material deterioration—consumer finance and mortgages are stable. Savings accumulated during COVID help.
Second half of 2023: lower-income clients slightly adjusted consumption behavior. Observed through corporate feedback. Strength in employment and inflation control gives a chance to navigate 2023 without material private consumption decline. Compared to H2 2022, outlook is more optimistic but depends on client background and business type.
Corporate clients: differentiate large corporates vs midcaps and small companies. IB outlook: James to add. FIC business outstanding in 2022. Ram Nayak’s reorganization of FIC business is exemplary. Will 2023 revenues match 2022 in FIC? Potentially not, but underlying flow business in January is active. Clients want to transact and do business with Deutsche Bank, including in FICC.
The investment bank stands on three legs, often underestimated. We have a strong FICC franchise, a mature financing business, and the O&A business. Early indications show O&A is returning in 2023—not at 2021 levels, but enough to offset potential FICC decline. I am very positive on the investment bank. January results confirm we are on the right track.
I agree with Christian. I sometimes see it as a transition from macro to micro. Macro had an extremely strong 2022. Microeconomic products—episodic transactions, financings, M&A, equity and debt capital markets, especially leveraged debt—had a weak 2022. As Christian mentioned, macro businesses performed spectacularly. As we transition, revenue performance appears reasonably consistent, though portfolio mix shifts.
This gives us confidence in both our franchises and the business mix. Patricia, thank you for your question.
Good. Thank you. Next Zoom question is from Isabella Bufacchi, Il Sole 24 Ore.
Good morning, thank you for the opportunity.
Good morning.
Two questions: First, on global Deutsche Bank. If I’m correct, 50% of revenues come from outside Germany. Italy should be your largest market outside Germany—how important is it? Second, on the Capital Release Unit (CRU): a very unique tool. Has it worked well? What is the capital impact, specifically the EUR 5 billion that should have been released?
Thank you, Isabella. I’ll take the first question, James the second. We miss you in Frankfurt; next year, you’ll visit personally. Italy remains a key market for Deutsche Bank. The 50% revenue cited refers only to corporate relationships outside Germany. Including home-market corporate clients, we generate more than 50% of revenues outside Germany.
Overall revenues outside Germany are higher—around 60% or more. We are committed to 60 countries. Global expertise and regional know-how are essential. This network is crucial for clients, guiding our strategy in Asia, the U.S., North and South America, and the Middle East.
In Europe, Italy is our strongest market after Germany. This will remain unchanged for Deutsche Bank.
Regarding CRU capital: multiple estimation methods exist. Prepared remarks cited 55 basis points of leverage exposure, or 45 basis points on CET1. Calculation starts June 30, 2019, carrying forward differences in the denominators of those ratios, subtracting net losses over 3.5 years. Result: 55 basis points on leverage ratio, 45 basis points on CET1.
Tangible common equity perspective: Q4 average allocated TCE to CRU was EUR 2.7 billion, down from roughly EUR 6.5 billion. Significant reduction in allocation, shifting capital toward core businesses—corporate and private bank—away from non-core businesses at that time.
Another update: next names—Barbara Schaefer, Inken Schönauer, Frank Meisler. First, Barbara Schaefer, Stuttgarter Zeitung. Mr. von Moltke, can you repeat the explanation? Released capital was about EUR 4 billion. Second, Mr. Sewing, on asset management: 2022 net outflows of EUR 20 billion—related to greenwashing allegations? How will confidence be rebuilt?
I cited remaining capital, not total released. Remaining TCE allocated to CRU in Q4: EUR 2.7 billion (see page 24, financial data supplement).
Follow-up: How much was released? EUR 2.7 remaining, starting point EUR 6.5, so EUR 4 billion difference.
Yes, approximately EUR 4 billion. I can provide a follow-up with restated numbers as of end-2018 for precision.
Regarding allegations: never good for business. Peers and development over years show DWS has increased reputation, managed a turnaround. H2 2022 showed significant client improvement. Hardly any trouble observed. Further details will be provided by DWS, publishing numbers today. Answers for Ms. Schäfer completed. Next: Ms. Schönauer, FAZ. Good morning.
Two questions: You’ve stated limited concern over loan defaults for private consumers or corporates, emphasizing risk management and monitoring. Has 2022 or 2023 strategy adjusted? Has there been a “credit crunch,” with loans not granted due to tighter criteria? Forward strategy: some may view as “kicking the can down the road.” How are investors responding, and what should they expect post-restructuring?
Someone has to ask the question, so I will. For example, regarding potential mergers—that’s the “white elephant” in the room. I want to know if you are thinking about this because I don’t believe you aren’t. I am considering Deutsche Bank’s strategy. Credit defaults or tighter credit criteria depend on the sector. In leveraged lending, risk appetite for new funding was already lowered in Q1. The same applies to some commercial real estate financing projects. Fortunately, as James von Moltke’s slide shows, we are well positioned.
We come from a conservative risk management base, so major adjustments are not necessary. Monitoring is continuous—weekly, monthly—which is key. Customer behavior also matters. In 2022, many opted for short-term financing to shore up liquidity, reducing long-term financing. Construction industry demand decreased when material costs rose due to inflation. Fortunately, diversification across other businesses compensates. Customer demand remains the main driver.
We have a clear strategy communicated in March 2022. This is an evolution, not a revolution. We are confident in our four businesses and divisions. Each division and infrastructure unit can improve, and we know the steps to take until 2025. Focusing on ourselves over the past three years paid off; we are more advanced than many expected.
We have achieved our goals, and if in 2025 we exceed 10% in this environment, I am fully convinced. Let’s wait and see how things develop
Thank you. Next question: Frank Meisler, Der Platow Brief.
In the fall, there was the IPO of a Stuttgart-based car maker. We were involved, though not extensively, and the situation was uncomfortable internally. What lessons did we draw to prevent a recurrence? Did we communicate with the client? While we exited equity trading, this may have had some impact. We will continue to improve and ensure no stone is left unturned.
Mr. Meisler, this situation was painful, personally and professionally. The IP-IPO was one we wanted to be part of. Client decisions must be respected, and feedback is always best from the client themselves. We contributed significantly to Porsche’s IPO as a leading retail coordinator. We learned where we could improve, and these lessons remain internal. The key takeaway: our team has adopted a sports-like mentality—reflecting, improving, and acting decisively.
If I lose a tennis match, I accept it and learn how to improve. This is our approach at Deutsche Bank. Being involved in nine out of ten local IPOs shows our presence and capabilities. Next on the list: Philipp Otto, Thomas Baumgartner, and Christoph Bink. Philipp Otto, you asked about “attack mode” in global competition. This goes beyond growth—it means consistently gaining market share. Three and a half years ago, we identified areas with potential: corporate banking, FIC, and wealth management, including Claudio de Sanctis’s work in Asia. Our Q4 wealth management results show tangible success. “Attack” does not imply inorganic measures; it is disciplined, strategic growth.
Where do we want to take market share? Gain market share? I won’t give exact details, but consistent market share gains is what I mean by “attack.” That’s positive competition. Most importantly, three and a half years ago, we identified businesses with potential to grow: corporate banking, FIC, and wealth management, including Claudio de Sanctis’s work in Asia. Our wealth management results in Q4 versus peers reflect this success. That is something we do not hide. “Attack” does not mean resorting to inorganic measures—it means disciplined, strategic growth.
We focus on growing where we are strong and have the capacity to do so—that’s a positive kind of attack. This is not always easy to communicate, but we have constructive discussions in the management board, the GMC, and with our direct reports. Tonight, we are engaging with several thousand employees to address weaknesses openly. If we can improve on costs, we will. As I mentioned in my speech, on remediation, regulatory controls, and other priorities, we must make progress in 2023. No ifs, no buts.
If I say that, it will show you that, you cannot be satisfied with everything all the time, you know.
Marta, Frankfurter Neue Presse. Thank you. You asked about Russia. We have over EUR 800 million in remaining commitments. How will we reduce this? What provisions are in place? Is there competitive pressure to move faster? How many IT staff relocated to Germany?
The remaining Russian book is almost entirely lending to subsidiaries of multinational corporates. We’ve reduced this book, especially contingent exposures, and are winding down without new business. Progress aligns with contractual and regulatory obligations. Regarding the Russia tech center, Bernd Leukert’s team quickly reduced dependency on these resources, shifted tasks to other centers, and opened Berlin operations. Significant progress has been made.
We won’t share individual staffing numbers, but significant progress has been made in replacing the capabilities previously provided by the Russia tech center before the war.
We continue to reduce exposures in line with our strategy. For global companies with subsidiaries in Russia, reductions proceed in lockstep. This process takes time and aligns with our overall plan. Is your question answered, Mr. Baumgartner?
John, this comes from Chris Spink at IFR. Chris, can you hear us?
Yes, thank you very much. I wanted to revisit your outlook for the investment bank this year. You mentioned January started well. To what extent do you expect the elevated FICC levels from last year to be a new normal, or were they temporary due to last year’s events? Secondly, I’d like to understand your view on commercial real estate.
Do you see potential surprises with upcoming maturities and how tenants may reorganize their portfolios over the next year?
Chris, I’ll start with the first question, and Christian can address the second. Several years ago, there was a belief in a secular decline in total FICC revenues, with cyclical behavior layered on top. In my view—and after discussions with Ram—we’ve turned a corner. We are now experiencing, or starting, a secular increase in FICC revenues, though cycles will continue around that trend. Yes, 2022 was a peak year in the cycle, but the underlying improvement and secular benefits remain.
Why is that? Global indebtedness continues to grow, though it varies by country, region, and sector. Long-term liability holders, such as pension funds and life insurers, will continue servicing those obligations. A large generation of baby boomers will require continued financial products. Increasing market complexity and more countries entering developed currency zones support secular growth. These structural factors suggest FICC revenues have room to expand over time.
We are well-positioned in issuance, market-making, and institutional services. Fixed income trends appear positive, and our outlook is that this secular growth trajectory will continue.
Regarding commercial real estate, I’m not signaling immediate concerns, but higher interest rates and refinancing challenges mean we need to monitor this sector closely. From the structure of the book, as Olivier presents it, it is well-diversified with strong LTVs and underlying asset quality. While vigilance is warranted, we see no material immediate risks.
Overall, I am not particularly concerned, but commercial real estate requires closer monitoring compared to a typical corporate segment.
Chris, I hope that addresses your questions.
We have four names on the list. We will manage them: Blechner, Arnd Gruner, Santos Gruner, and a second question from Olaf Storbeck. Notker Blechner, ARD. Blechner, VDE/VDI Nachrichten.
I have a question on possible credit defaults, for example—it has already been addressed.
BaFin recently warned that rising interest rates could threaten many SMEs. Do you share this concern? Regarding European banking consolidation: some ask if now is the right moment for a German merger. Could Deutsche Bank be interested in parts of Credit Suisse, or do we aim to grow independently? Let me clarify: I never said banks “have to do their homework.” I said we must do ours. I am pleased with Commerzbank’s profit, but our focus is on Deutsche Bank’s strategy and growth, not speculating about competitors.
When I mention doing our homework, it always refers to Deutsche Bank, not others. Concerning SME bankruptcies, we should be cautious. Despite 2022 being a challenging year, the German economy proved robust and resilient. Family-owned mid-size companies are doing their utmost to navigate these difficulties. We may see a slight increase in insolvencies in 2023 compared to 2022, but the notion of a “wave” of bankruptcies is exaggerated. Our portfolio currently shows no alarming trends.
As President of the Banking Association, I don’t see an insolvency wave among peers, including savings banks and Volksbanken. Some consolidation may occur, but it is not urgent. Our strategy is to grow on our own merits. Moving forward, we will continue with concise questions and answers. For instance, regarding Postbank or the integration of Postbank IT:
Before the annual media conference, we invested heavily in moving to the cloud. The first product has launched, but market reception is modest. How quickly will we correct this? The goal remains a more efficient, cost-effective bank aligned with client expectations. I am pleased with the migration over Christmas and New Year: more than four million clients and accounts transitioned. Some individual issues occurred Monday and Tuesday, unrelated to the migration.
Technically, asset and client migrations went smoothly. On Thursday, online banking issues arose—our apologies. Every complaint matters; a few thousand complaints occurred. Considering the scale—4 million clients—the migration is still a success. This was the largest, most complex IT migration in the European banking system of this type. Kudos to Bernd Leukert, Karl von Rohr, and their teams for executing it effectively.
Minor issues and temporary restrictions should not happen again. We are committed to resolving these fully, aiming for a smooth experience by Easter during the next phase of migration.
You asked about online/mobile banking and cloud capabilities. As Christian outlined, the New Year’s transition was massive and complex. We migrated back-end accounts and introduced new online/mobile banking functionality. The cloud now allows rapid, agile feature additions over coming months. While some current limitations exist during the remaining account transitions, these will resolve as features fully integrate. We expect substantial improvements and enhancements in client experience as we continue this rollout.
We’re confident the path we’re on with the mobile app and cloud environment is the right one. Clients and customers will see rapid improvements in capabilities in this area over the coming months.
Good. Okay. Short answer. We’ll try to provide a concise response for the next question—from Andreas Gröner at Handelsblatt.
One more question on M&A. You previously said you wanted to complete your homework by the end of 2022 before considering larger mergers and acquisitions. Now you say this will remain the case until 2025. Does this mean calls for broader European consolidation are only lip service, with nothing serious on your agenda for the next two years? You mentioned higher pretax income in 2025—does this also apply after tax? Have provisions been set for Postbank litigation, which I understand remains under contingencies? Finally, you noted you cannot rule out further headcount reductions.
Are there any concrete plans, for example, like those published in 2019?
With the EUR 1.4 billion DTA adjustment, it will be hard to beat that, so we wouldn’t expect similar adjustments. Post-tax impacts may be more muted than pre-tax. Regarding Postbank, it remains a contingent liability. Although it has returned to a lower court, the facts and legal situation have largely evolved positively, so the contingent liability status continues.
On the first question, Mr. Gröner, regarding the Capital Markets Union and banking union: I still expect banking consolidation, though I am not requesting it. Consolidation requires these regulatory prerequisites; without them, it doesn’t make sense. That’s why I have long advocated for both a Capital Markets and Banking Union in Europe. Without it, initiatives like the Green Deal are difficult to implement. My position remains: banking consolidation will happen, but only once regulatory prerequisites are in place. Regarding headcount reductions, concrete plans are guided by cost-income ratio targets and ongoing strategic adjustments.
Our cost-income ratio target is 65.2%. We plan to remove EUR 2 billion in costs by 2025 through incremental measures. In some cases, this may result in headcount reductions, such as branch closures in the Private Bank. In other areas, headcount may increase. The cost-income ratio serves as guidance. Internally, everyone understands that further reductions cannot be fully excluded. Finally, Olaf Storbeck at the Financial Times has an additional question.
Two questions. First, regarding the incremental cost program you mentioned: what exactly does it entail? Has it been approved by the management board, and what is its magnitude? Does this constitute a new cost-cutting program at the bank? Second, I understand you don’t wish to provide litigation cost details. One-third of these costs was attributed to the Capital Release Unit, which generates little revenue and has minimal RWAs left. How can these unexpected litigation costs be allocated to the CRU? From the outside, it seems somewhat arbitrary.
How can it be that these unexpected litigation costs have been allocated to the CRU? That looks a bit arbitrary from the outside.
On the CRU point: many banks have similar situations. The CRU included a Polish FX mortgage book. Like other banks, we’ve built legal provisions there, especially in 2022. Regarding costs, we constantly review opportunities to increase efficiency. Specific measures tied to future gains are labeled as key deliverables, with associated investment and management accountability.
Over time, we identify additional measures. Inflation outlooks are higher than last year, which means we need more actions to offset it. These additional measures will help maintain overall forecast guidance discussed in March. In other words, the incremental steps are designed to preserve our strategic plan despite higher inflation.
Regarding measures, Mr. Storbeck, as you’ve likely observed in your own newspaper, the longer one works there…
…the more opportunities one finds to improve processes and efficiency. Three examples: infrastructure—some duplication exists, which we aim to consolidate. In the corporate and investment banks, efficient front-to-end processes allow further savings when expanded. Booking a loan is another area. We also review geographical setup to streamline operations. Finally, technology: Bert Lohse continues to show what is possible with innovations, including new chat systems.
Automation drives major process improvements. Ignoring it would be a mistake. We continually learn in daily operations, and machine learning and AI help improve banking capabilities. These incremental measures support what James mentioned: countering rising inflation. This concludes our questions and marks the end of the annual media conference. Thank you for joining in Frankfurt or remotely.
For further questions or comments, contact the communications department. Otherwise, thank you, have a nice day, and goodbye.