Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome. Thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q2 2023 analyst conference call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. I would now like to turn the conference over to Silke Szypa, Deputy Head of Investor Relations.
Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2023 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website at db.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our material. With that, let me hand over to Christian.
Thank you, Silke. A warm welcome also from my side. It's a pleasure to be discussing our second quarter and first half results with you today. These results provide a vital perspective of the progress we are making towards our objectives. For me, a few key points stand out. First, we have strong growth momentum. Revenues in the first half year were up 8% to EUR 15.1 billion, putting the upper end of our guidance range of EUR 28 billion-EUR 29 billion within reach. We also captured net inflows of EUR 28 billion across the Private Bank and Asset Management. We are reaping the benefits of a complementary and well-balanced earnings mix. We are delivering strong growth in our Private Bank and Corporate Bank franchises, and resilience in key areas of our Investment Bank. Second, we have proven our earnings power.
We generated profit before tax of EUR 3.3 billion in the first six months, up 2% over last year, and the highest first half since 2011, after absorbing more than EUR 700 million in non-operating costs, including restructuring related to operational efficiencies. Excluding these non-operating costs, pre-tax profit would have been EUR 4 billion, 21% higher than in the first half of 2022 on a comparable basis. Our post-tax RoTE was 6.8% and would have been above 9%, excluding non-operating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally across the year, very close to our 2025 target of above 10%. Third, our balance sheet and capital position are resilient. Our CET1 ratio has risen to 13.8%, driven by strong organic capital generation.
We have sound liquidity and a solid deposit base, which we slightly increased in the second quarter. Fourth, we are delivering on our promise to distribute capital to shareholders. As announced yesterday evening, we have received supervisory approval to start share buybacks of up to EUR 450 million, 50% higher than last year. Together with the dividend we paid in respect of 2022, we aim to distribute more than EUR 1 billion of capital to shareholders this year. Of course, it is our clear aim to continue on that trajectory in 2024 as part of our EUR 8 billion distribution promise. Fifth, we are accelerating the execution of our global house bank strategy.
We are already making good progress in driving operational efficiency, boosting capital efficiency, and outperforming our revenue growth target. Let me now discuss the franchise strengths across our businesses in the first half year on slide 2. Starting with the Corporate Bank, we delivered 30% revenue growth with strong momentum across all business areas. With non-interest expenses up 6%, operating leverage in this business was 24% in the first half of 2023. That enabled us to deliver an RoTE of nearly 17%. In the Investment Bank, we demonstrated the stability of our financing business and resilience of our FICC franchise overall after the exceptionally strong levels of the same period of last year. We are further diversifying our Investment Bank by strengthening our O&A business, both organically and inorganically.
We announced the acquisition of Numis and seized opportunities to add revenue generators through selective hiring. Turning to the private bank, we grew revenues by 10% in the first half of 2023. These are the best six months revenues since the formation of the private bank, with double-digit year-on-year growth in both the first and second quarters of the year. We also generated net inflows of EUR 13 billion in the first half year. This helped us grow assets under management by EUR 23 billion to EUR 541 billion during the first six months of 2023. Finally, we also grew volumes in asset management. We captured net asset inflows of EUR 15 billion, or EUR 19 billion ex cash, driven by passive and alternatives, both focus areas for us.
That enabled us to grow assets under management by EUR 38 billion to EUR 859 billion in the first half year. These business are strongly complementary, which drives sustained revenue growth, as we show on slide 3. Over the past two years, we have seen steady growth in first half revenues. We see ourselves well on track to deliver at the higher end of our full year guidance of EUR 28 billion-EUR 29 billion. We achieved this despite significant shifts in the operating environment over the past 24 months, as a strong post-COVID recovery in 2021 gave way to inflationary headwinds and economic uncertainties driven by the war in Ukraine. We maintain our growth trajectory in a changing environment, thanks in a good measure to a complementary business portfolio.
As mentioned, we delivered strong revenue growth in our Corporate and Private Banks, which took full advantage of rising interest rates and new client mandates. We expect that momentum to continue into the second half of 2023. This, together with the stable contribution from the Investment Bank's financing business, more than offset normalizing conditions in our more market-sensitive businesses. That reflects a well-balanced revenue mix in line with our global house bank ambition. As we anticipate some normalization of interest rates, we aim to further complement our earnings mix. We are making investments in capital-light businesses, including Origination & Advisory and Wealth Management, together with technology-enabled high return businesses in the Corporate Bank. Finally, across all business, we continue to make progress towards our sustainability targets.
We added ESG financing and investment volumes of EUR 17 billion in the second quarter, bringing our cumulative total to EUR 254 billion since January 2020. Our business growth has further increased our underlying earnings power as we set out on slide 4. As I said earlier, our first half profit before tax of EUR 3.3 billion was up 2% compared to the first half of 2022. As you can see, pre-provision profit was up 8% at EUR 4 billion after absorbing significantly higher non-operating costs than in the prior year. Non-operating costs were EUR 744 million, comprising litigation charges to settle mainly long-standing matters and restructuring and severance as we realize operational efficiencies.
Revenues were up 8%, while adjusted costs, which exclude non-operating items, were up only 2%, below inflation, despite continued investments in our platform. With prorated bank levies, adjusted operating leverage was 5%. This earnings power is reflected in the progress we are making on our key target ratios. Post-tax, RoTE, excluding non-operating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally over the four quarters of the year, would be over 9% in the first half of 2023, while our cost income ratio would be 67%. In other words, we are on a clear path towards achieving our 2025 targets. Before I hand over to James, a few words on the progress we are making to accelerate delivery of our global house bank strategy, as we discussed with you in April on slide 5.
We aim to accelerate delivery on three dimensions: operational efficiency, capital efficiency, and revenue growth, where we aim to outperform our original targets. We have already made progress in all of these. Turning first to operational efficiencies. We raised our ambition for incremental efficiencies from EUR 2 billion to two and a half billion euros, as we said. We have already delivered more than EUR 600 million through a range of measures, such as branch closures in the Private Bank, standardizing loan processing in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank, and simplifying our technology infrastructure. We anticipate EUR 300 million of savings by 2025 from the successfully completed migration of 12 million Postbank clients onto the Deutsche Bank technology platform.
We expect more than EUR 100 million from the announced redundancies in senior non-client facing roles, as more than 80% of affected staff have either been informed or left the platform. In other words, a total of around EUR 1 billion in savings are either already achieved or are expected from measures now implemented. We have a series of other measures in flight. For example, streamlining our mortgage business and further branch closures in the Private Bank, re-engineering more front to back processes in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank, further application decommissioning, and additional workforce measures. These are some examples of a wider program of initiatives underway. Based on our progress on these and realized achievements so far, we reaffirm our EUR 2.5 billion goal.
In respect of capital efficiencies, as you know, our aim is to reduce risk-weighted assets by EUR 15 billion-EUR 20 billion by 2025, relative to our baseline assumptions with a modest revenue impact. In the second quarter, we accelerate securitization transactions, which delivered RWA relief of around EUR 3 billion. In addition, credit risk RWAs were reduced as part of the trade finance and lending optimization efforts. Overall, we proved our revenue strengths with the business delivering revenue growth while our FX adjusted RWAs decreased by EUR 5 billion compared to the prior year quarter. We have further optimization measures in preparation for the second half of 2023, including securitization of consumer finance loans and reductions in sub-hurdle lending. All this gives us confidence that we will deliver on our capital optimization goals. Turning finally to revenue growth.
We are fully on track to outperform on our revenue growth targets of 3.5%-4.5% compound annual growth against 2021 levels. On a last 12-month basis, we delivered compound annual revenue growth versus 2021 of 7.5%, well ahead of that target, with revenue growth of 8% in the first half of this year. We expect the interest rate environment to continue to drive sustainable performance in our stable businesses. We anticipate added momentum from our organic and inorganic investments, including the Numis acquisition or the new partnership with Lufthansa and Miles & More, and from hiring of some 50 senior O&A bankers. This enables us to take advantage of an expected pickup in corporate finance activity. We are already seeing signs of this in our backlog.
We have also hired around 30 wealth managers. We expect the growth in our assets under management and net asset inflows to drive fee income in future quarters. To sum up, we are delivering revenue and business growth of a strong franchise. Our well-balanced complementary business mix enables us to drive continued revenue momentum. We are increasing our earnings power year by year, and we see a clear path to achieving our 2025 profitability targets, among others, an RoTE of larger than 10% in 2025. We are delivering on two key promises: distributing EUR 8 billion to shareholders and accelerating execution of our global house bank strategy. With that, let me hand over to James.
Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on slide 7 and place them in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian outlined a strong revenue momentum and our well-balanced business mix, which resulted in revenue growth of well above 7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth above our 2025 target. The strong revenue growth, combined with ongoing cost discipline, led to a 2 percentage point improvement in the cost income ratio to 73% in the first six months compared to 2022, despite significantly higher non-operating expenses in the second quarter, which we would not expect to repeat in the same magnitude in coming periods.
Our capital position has remained strong. Our CET1 ratio of 13.8% positions us well for capital distributions, investments, and the implementation of regulatory changes. Our liquidity metrics remain strong. The LCR was 137%, above our target of around 130%. In the second quarter, the Net Stable Funding Ratio was 119%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets. With that, let me turn to the second quarter highlights on slide 8. Group revenues were EUR 7.4 billion, up 11% on the second quarter of 2022. Non-interest expenses were EUR 5.6 billion, up 15% year-on-year.
The increase was largely driven by EUR 655 million of non-operating expenses in the quarter, compared to EUR 102 million in the prior year period. Non-operating expenses this quarter included EUR 260 million of restructuring and severance provisions to accelerate the execution of our global house bank strategy, primarily through a reduction in non-client facing roles and optimization of our mortgage platform. To settle a number of long-standing litigation matters, we incurred litigation charges of EUR 395 million, as in each case, the outcome was higher than expected. Adjusted costs increased year-on-year, which I will discuss in more detail shortly. Provision for credit losses was EUR 401 million, or 33 basis points of average loans.
We generated a profit before tax of EUR 1.4 billion, down 9% year-over-year, mainly due to the higher non-operating items. Net profit of EUR 900 million was also impacted by the higher effective tax rate, principally reflecting the non-deductibility of certain litigation charges. Our cost income ratio was just under 76%, and our post-tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity was 5.4% in the quarter. Excluding the aforementioned non-operating expenses, the cost income ratio would have been 67%, and post-tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity, close to 9%. Diluted earnings per share was EUR 0.19 in the second quarter, and tangible book value per share was EUR 26.95, up 5% year-over-year. Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results, starting with interest rate developments on slide 9.
Net interest margin in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank remained strong in the second quarter as deposit betas remained below our modeled assumptions in both divisions. We expect margins to begin to decline from this point, but expect that the tailwind from interest rates for 2023 will be larger than the EUR 900 million we had guided at the start of the year. Net interest margin at the group level increased to 1.5%, as the accounting effect we noted in the first quarter partially reversed. As we noted at the time, these effects are held in C&O and are offset in non-interest revenues in the businesses, and do not affect the group's total revenues. Average interest earning assets declined compared to the first quarter, driven by lower average cash balances in the second quarter. With that, let's turn to adjusted costs on slide 10.
Adjusted costs, excluding bank levies, were EUR 4.9 billion. This is consistent with our guidance range of EUR 1.6 billion-EUR 1.65 billion per month. The increase of 4% was driven by inflationary pressures, ongoing investments, and business growth, which are partially offset by our continued cost reduction efforts. Compensation and benefits and information technology costs were broadly flat to the prior year quarter. Higher professional service costs were driven by business consulting and legal fees. The variance in other costs includes higher expenses for banking services and outsourced operations, as well as movements in operational taxes. We also saw a normalization of marketing spend and talent recruitment to foster our growth trajectory. Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on slide 11.
Provision for credit losses in the second quarter was EUR 401 million, equivalent to 33 basis points of average loans, slightly up compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the broader impact of the macro environment. Stages one and two provisions were EUR 63 million, with the moderate sequential increase driven by portfolio and rating movements, especially in the Investment Bank. Stage three provisions of EUR 338 million were broadly spread across our businesses and slightly lower compared to the previous quarter, partly reflecting a non-recurrence of provisions relating to a small number of idiosyncratic events in the International Private Bank. Overall, there are currently no signs of a persistent deterioration in the environment. However, we observed softening in some German midcap sectors, including automotive and continued weakness in commercial real estate.
For the full year, we continue to expect provisions to land within our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans, albeit at the upper end of the range. Looking at the first six months, provisions were in line with our expectations if we include the non-recurring events in the international private bank we had in the first quarter. For the second half of the year, we expect the usual quarterly run rate of about EUR 150 million in the private bank, while provisions in the corporate bank and investment bank are expected to overall remain in line with the first half of the year taken together. Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on slide 17.
Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.8% at the end of the second quarter, 15 basis points above the prior period. Organic capital generation contributed 16 basis points to the increase, reflecting our strong net income, which was offset mainly by higher regulatory deductions for common equity dividends and AT1 coupons. Risk-weighted assets remained broadly flat this quarter. In the second half of the year, we expect approximately 70 basis points of headwinds from various items we have discussed with you before, notably impacts from model and methodology changes, share buybacks, and the Numis acquisition. Our leverage ratio was 4.7% at the end of the second quarter, 4 basis points up versus the prior quarter, based on our strong organic capital generation. Let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on slide 14.
Corporate Bank revenues in the second quarter were over EUR 1.9 billion, 25% higher year-on-year, driven by an improved interest rate environment and continued pricing discipline with growth across all client segments. Revenues remain close to the prior quarter due to continued lagging rate pass-through, fee growth in institutional client services, and stabilized deposit volumes. As we highlighted at our first quarter results, we do expect a normalization of our interest revenues in the second half of the year as client pass-through further accelerates. Deposits were EUR 271 billion, essentially flat compared to the prior-year quarter and to the first quarter of 2023, as deposit levels stabilized despite increased interest rate competition and strong pricing discipline.
Loan volume in the corporate bank was EUR 116 billion, down by EUR 13 billion compared to the prior year quarter, and EUR 5 billion compared to the previous quarter. This reduction reflected overall lower demand and continued selective balance sheet deployment in our trade finance and lending business, as well as the negative impact from FX movements. We remain conservative in our underwriting at this point in the cycle and continue to apply strict lending standards in order to maintain the high quality of our loan portfolio. Provision for credit losses increased in the quarter, reflecting a weakening in certain sub-sectors. Non-interest expenses were EUR 1.2 billion, an increase of 10% year-on-year, driven by increased non-operating costs, predominantly litigation provisions, whereas adjusted costs remained stable. Profit before tax was EUR 670 million in the quarter, up by 52% year-on-year.
The cost income ratio improved to 59%. Post-tax return on tangible equity was 14.8%, despite higher non-recurring costs. I'll now return to the Investment Bank on Slide 15. Revenues for the second quarter were 11% lower year-on-year. FICC sales and trading decreased by 10% against what was an exceptional prior year quarter. We're pleased with the underlying performance, which remains strong, with growth in structured activity helping to reduce the impact from a lower volatility environment. Financing revenues were higher year-on-year, reflecting the proven stability of the franchise, with net interest margin remaining robust and solid pipeline execution. Credit trading revenues were significantly higher, driven by improvements in the flow business and strong performance in distressed.
Rates and foreign exchange revenues were significantly lower compared to a very strong prior year quarter, and reflected a more normalized environment than the prior year period. Emerging markets revenues were lower, as expected, with the prior year seeing heightened market activity linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and outperformance in the Asia region. Moving to Origination and Advisory, revenues were up 25%, driven by the non-recurrence of material leverage lending markdowns in the prior year. Excluding these markdowns, the business underperformed in a challenging market, with the global fee pool down approximately 20% year-on-year. Debt origination revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from the non-repeat of the aforementioned markdowns, though performance also reflected a partial year-on-year recovery in LDCM market share. Investment grade revenues were slightly down year-on-year, but reflected market share gains in a lower fee pool environment.
Advisory revenues were significantly lower, reflecting both lower fee pool and relative underperformance. With indications that deal activity is starting to recover, we expect our investments in the Investment Bank to result in a significant rebound in O&A performance into 2024. Non-interest expenses and adjusted costs increased versus the prior year, reflecting investments in both our controls and the business to support future revenue growth. Loan balances were slightly higher year-over-year, driven by higher origination across FICC, with quarter-over-quarter balances essentially flat. Provision for credit losses was EUR 141 million, or 54 basis points of average loans. The increase versus the prior year was driven by higher Stage I and II provisions due to rating migrations and portfolio movements, combined with higher Stage III impairments, primarily in the commercial real estate sector. Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 16.
Reported revenues were EUR 2.4 billion in the quarter, up 11% year-on-year, driven by higher deposit revenues. Revenues in the Private Bank Germany significantly increased by 16%, mainly due to higher deposit revenues, which more than compensated for changes in contractual and regulatory conditions affecting fee income. In addition, the prior year quarter benefited from higher valuation impacts. In the International Private Bank, revenues were up 4%, or 6%, if adjusted for foregone revenues from the sale of the financial advisory business in Italy. Growth was driven by deposit products, which also were the primary driver of the 11% growth in premium banking. In Wealth Management and Bank for Entrepreneurs, revenues were up 1%, or 4%, if adjusted for the aforementioned foregone revenues. Improved performance, mainly in Europe, was partially offset by continued slower business momentum in APAC.
Turning to costs, non-interest expenses were up 26%, mainly attributable to an increase in non-operating expenses, reflecting restructuring and severances provisions related to strategy execution, as well as provisions for individual litigation cases, whereas the prior year quarter benefited from net provision releases. Adjusted costs increased by 5%, mainly reflecting investments in infrastructure control improvements and strategic initiatives. Inflation impacts were largely mitigated by efficiency initiatives. Profits and key ratios in the quarter were impacted by a total of EUR 254 million of non-operating expenses. Provisions for credit losses was EUR 147 million, or 22 basis points of average loans in the quarter, which reflects the continued stability of our high-quality loan book, especially in the retail businesses, and continued risk discipline.
Provision for credit losses in the prior year quarter benefited from releases of credit loss allowances following sales of non-performing loans. Significant sequential decline reflects a non-recurrence of certain idiosyncratic events in the international private bank in the first quarter. We saw solid net inflows in assets under management of EUR 7 billion in the quarter, with EUR 4 billion in investment products and EUR 3 billion in AUM deposits. Let me continue with asset management on slide 17. As you will have seen in their report, DWS reported stable revenues despite the effect of weaker markets in 2022, slightly lower adjusted profit before tax compared to the prior year. My usual reminder, the asset management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS standalone financials.
Assets under management increased to EUR 859 billion in the quarter, reflecting EUR 11 billion of market appreciation and EUR 9 billion of net inflows. Net inflows were primarily in passive and alternatives, notably in real estate. Flows in cash products, once again, have been significant and very volatile throughout the quarter, ending with net outflows of EUR 1 billion. Revenues declined by 6% versus the prior year. This was predominantly driven by higher funding charges in the segment and a decline in management fees from a reduction in average assets under management. Performance and transaction fees were significantly higher year-on-year, driven by the alternatives business. Other revenues declined due to higher funding charges and lower mark-to-market valuations of co-investments, partly offset by net interest income on excess cash from rising interest rates. Non-interest expenses were slightly higher, with adjusted costs remaining essentially flat.
Compensation costs were slightly higher, driven by variable retention costs and hiring to support transformation and business growth. General and administrative costs were also slightly higher, reflecting higher banking services costs and transformation implementation, mostly offset by a decline in group support costs. Non-operating costs are significantly higher than the prior year from an increase in litigation costs. Profit before tax of EUR 103 million in the quarter was down 34% compared to the prior year. The cost income ratio for the quarter was 76%, and return on tangible equity was 12%. Moving to Corporate & Other on Slide 18. Corporate & Other reported a pre-tax loss of EUR 115 million this quarter, a substantial improvement versus the pre-tax loss of EUR 500 million in the second quarter of 2022 on the same basis.
This year-on-year improvement was driven to a large part by valuation and timing differences, which were positive EUR 252 million this quarter. As a reminder, valuation and timing differences arise on derivatives used to hedge the economic risk of the group's balance sheet. These are accounting impacts, the current period gains partially reflect reversals of prior period valuation losses as the underlying instruments approach maturity. The pre-tax loss associated with our legacy portfolios was EUR 170 million versus negative EUR 120 million in the prior year quarter, driven by additional litigation provisions relating to Polish foreign currency mortgages. Expenses associated with shareholder activities, as defined in the OECD transfer pricing guidelines, were EUR 138 million in this quarter, compared to EUR 120 million in the prior year quarter.
Funding and liquidity impacts were negative EUR 10 million in the current quarter, compared to negative EUR 126 million in the prior year quarter. The reversal of non-controlling interests in the operating businesses, primarily from DWS, was positive EUR 51 million, broadly flat year-on-year. Other impacts reported in the segment aggregated to negative EUR 100 million. Risk-weighted assets stood at EUR 41 billion at the end of the second quarter, down EUR 2 billion since the first quarter of 2023. The RWA figure includes EUR 19 billion of operational risk RWA. Turning to the group outlook for the full year on Slide 19. With first half revenues above EUR 15 billion, we believe that revenues above the midpoint for our, of our guidance range of EUR 28 billion-EUR 29 billion for the full year 2023 are achievable.
We continue to execute on our agenda to foster the bank's growth ambitions and to improve the bank's structural efficiency. As Christian outlined, we have a number of measures underway. Adjusted costs for the full year 2023 are still expected to be essentially flat compared to 2022, benefiting from strict cost management, lower Single Resolution Fund charges for the current year, as well as a potential restitution payment from a national resolution fund. We now expect non-interest expenses to be slightly higher compared to 2022. This reflects higher than anticipated litigation expenses we had in the second quarter, and an impact in relation to the Numis transaction, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.
Provision for credit losses is now expected at the upper end of our guidance range of 25-30 basis points of average loans, reflecting the current macro backdrop and lower loan balances than initially anticipated. Our capital guidance is unchanged. Our second quarter CET1 ratio of 13.8% allows us to absorb roughly 70 basis points of headwinds in the second half, reflecting the impacts from model changes, share buybacks, and the Numis acquisition. We remain committed to our capital objectives, most importantly, the distribution of EUR 8 billion to shareholders in respect of the financial years 2021-2025, and moving up to a 50% payout ratio. As Christian said, part of this plan is the next phase of our share buyback, which will commence next month and will be finalized in the second half of this year.
The performance and the growth opportunities we seized in the first half of this year strengthen our confidence in the path towards our 2025 targets and our global house bank strategy. With that, let me hand back to Silke, and we look forward to your questions.
Thank you. Emma, we are ready to take the first question.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star then two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. First question is from the line of Anke Reingen with RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. If you can just start with talking about the revenue outlook. Maybe firstly, yeah, big picture, I mean, the macro has been pretty weak. Growth is slowing, confidence is low, house prices are declining. In light of this environment, where do you actually see opportunities for your revenue growth, especially in the more stable businesses, and where do you see the risks? Then secondly, yeah, more concrete in terms of the numbers. The revenue guidance went up for the year, but still implies more like EUR 6.8 billion-EUR 7 billion per quarter in the second half. There's obviously seasonality, but, and you over earned in the first half.
How should we think about the jump off from the second half into 2024? Can you actually grow revenues in 2024 versus 2023? Thank you very much.
Good morning, Anke, and thank you very much for your question. Let me start, and James will potentially add. First of all, on your description on the macro side, I agree, but I think it completely validates that what we have shared with you in the previous calls. We always said that 2023 will be based on a very weak economy, on a kind of a no-growth scenario. I even expect for the end of 2023, a technical or a very mild recession in Germany, potentially also in the U.S. That was always and exactly the foundation of our plan.
Hence, Anke, there is no negative surprise in the macroeconomic outlook when it comes to our plan or to the underlying drivers, be it revenues, be it also risk costs. That is also, I think, important that from a risk point of view, our credit forecast was always built exactly on that description of the market you just shared with us, and hence, we also don't see any downside to our credit forecast, which James just again, re-emphasized in his prepared remarks. When it comes to where do we see growth opportunities, in particular for the stable businesses in such an environment? Look, I really do believe that the global house bank strategy, in particular in the stable business, is exactly the right answer.
That's what we feel kind of on a day-to-day basis with our clients. Of course, we are benefiting from the NII, and get back to that in a second. If you think about what kind of discussions, mandates we win with our corporate banking clients around the world when it comes to reorganizing their networks, reorganizing their supply chains, making sure that we obviously then follow up with the cash management systems around the world, as an answer to their reorganized network, this brings us a lot of new mandates, which honestly, is even above our expectations. Of course, in this regard, also, the most recent upgrades from rating agencies, again, help us, because whenever we get this, obviously, it helps to increase revenues and new clients onboarding.
In the Private Bank, there is a lot of ask, and you see that also in our development in the assets under management on the investment side. I think there we are seen, not only in Germany, but if I look in particular in other European countries, in Spain and Italy, we are seen as the go-to bank when it comes to investment advice. This is if you talk to the clients in this scenario where inflation is still above 5%, where they think about how they secure their pensions. Now with having Postbank fully integrated on our Deutsche Bank system, these people think about how to secure the pensions. That is obviously our chance and opportunity. That's what we see in the daily business, on the investment business.
In the IB, I know that a lot of people always think this is the more volatile business, but I think we shouldn't underestimate also in these days, the stability of the financing business in the IB, again, shown in Q2, also year-over-year. I think the future investments we are doing in the O&A business, they will pay off because we can see that actually the trough in this business has been passed, and we see from the mandates we are discussing with the clients that there is clearly an uptick in this business, and therefore I expect rising into revenues actually in that business, also in Q3 and in the following quarters.
I also think that Q2 has again shown that also in the trading business, we have done quite well, and also compared to our peers, and that we are actually maintaining or even growing our market share. If I take all this, I think the positioning of the global house bank with 70% of the revenues now coming from the private bank, corporate bank, and the asset management, growing assets under management, I really do think, we have the right answer, in particular for the environment we are experiencing right now. Coming to the concrete revenue question, and not only for 2023 or 2024, let me give you some more guidance. The NII curve is holding up far stronger than we initially planned.
I do believe that with regard to our own existing plan, we see positive surprises also in the second half of 2023, and I do also think in 2024. Let me give you one example. In the Private Bank business, we see a modest EUR 3-digit million revenue increase potential in the second half alone versus our own plan. That is mainly coming from NII, but also from the growing assets under management. The assumptions which we had so far in the Corporate Bank when it comes to the decrease in NII, I would say were too conservative. I would also predict that going forward, this will be slower than anticipated. It will come down, but it is slower.
The growth and the growth in investment and other fee income, as I just said, is encouraging. It's not only the assets under management, but you have seen the announcement of relationship business we are doing, for instance, with Lufthansa on Miles & More. To be honest, Anke, this is not the one-off, this is actually coming more and more as additional mandates. In particular, if I think about how the corporate bank is thriving, these mandates are coming in more and more, therefore, I really do believe we are building now the platform to growth in non-NII business with all the technology spent, which we did in the corporate bank, but also obviously in the other business.
Therefore, we did all the investments in O&A and wealth management, also in hiring the people, because we see that this business will grow, that there is the increased discussions we have with clients, in particular in O&A, and therefore we staffed up for that. Looking at all of this, and with a starting base of EUR 15 billion of revenues, look, there is clearly upside in the private bank versus our own plan in the second half. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar number in the private bank in the second half than what we have seen in the first half.
I think very stable numbers in the corporate bank, potentially slightly lower because of the NII curve, but again, we have been very conservative in the past, potentially too conservative. Stable asset management and very robust IB with growing O&A revenues. All this gave us the confidence, James and I, that we clearly can hint to a higher revenue base than the midpoint of EUR 28 billion-EUR 29 billion. I think we can focus on the EUR 29 billion number. If I then look at the businesses we are creating, again, in the non-NII, but also actually what we always emphasized here, that the real uptick in NII in the private bank is only coming in 2024 and 2025. Honestly, I'm very bullish on the revenue trajectory for 2024 and 2025.
I think we are exactly rightly placed from a revenue point of view, from a positioning, and hence it plays into our cards.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Nicolas Payen with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have two, please. The first one would be on costs. Could you give us a bit of color regarding how you think about costs for the rest of the year, and whether, you know, the EUR 1.6 billion-EUR 1.65 billion of monthly adjusted costs run rate still holds? Maybe also in light of the price pressure that we are seeing, how do you manage to strike a balance between cost discipline and investment for growth, and which areas are you prioritizing? The second question will be on CLP. The same question regarding the outlook for the rest of the year, and particularly after the increase in Q2, have you got any concern in any particular areas? Thank you.
Thanks, Nicolas. It's James. I'll take both of your questions, and Christian may want to add. Look, we've talked about the run rate. You know, it gives you a sense of what management is focused on. I think, you know, the past three quarters we've been able to adhere to the run rate, and it's been a, you know, an area of real focus, given both the need to deliver on cost savings measures in order to support that and manage the investments, in a, you know, in a phasing that corresponds with the cost takeout that we're achieving. If I think about priorities, look, our priorities on the cost measures are reasonably clear.
We laid them out in March of last year, we're building on that, and they are focused on particularly technology, distribution platform, and in Private Bank in particular, but not exclusively, then infrastructure support. Can we make that infrastructure support more efficient? We're very focused on that in the delivery. In terms of priorities on the business growth side, leave aside control investments for a moment, where I do think we're near or at the peak of what is required in order to finish that control remediation agenda.
You know, we wanna be really clear that our focus is on the capital light product areas in the firm and the ability to grow fee and commission income going forward, that supports both the return potential of the company and the distribution profile in the future. Those areas, you know, Christian's talked about wealth management being one, Origination & Advisory being a second. In the Corporate Bank, the fee income sources in the Corporate Bank that go to technology capabilities, but also just growing our client footprint in some areas where we're a leader. I have doc custody as one example. We've been focused on those types of investments, and I think we're making really good progress.
Just going to the run rate, you know, one thing as much as we're focused on that range, we do see the pressures I've outlined coming towards the end of the year. Numis, as an obvious example, will give us about EUR 50 million per quarter of additional expense. The investment we make in frontline bankers, taking advantage of the opportunity in the marketplace, maybe a little bit more. You know, if the exit rate per month is perhaps EUR 25 million more constant FX, that would be a natural place. I think in essence, we've started to run downhill, in terms of you know, our ability to deliver on those cost savings being de-risked, if you like, and gaining momentum.
The Unity project is one example that is, you know, behind us, and as we said in the prepared remarks, you know, now it's about crystallizing the run rate benefits over time. There are many more similar, you know, initiatives that will have a cumulative impact, at which point our greater challenge is phasing of growth investments rather than delivery of cost savings. I just wanna say one other thing while we're on the costs. You know, this non-operating cost area for us, obviously frustrating to have those exceed, especially those out of our control, our original planning. I look to the second half, you know, we would expect at around, say, EUR 100 million per quarter, the remainder of the restructuring and severance costs that we outlined for the year to come through.
Always uncertain on litigation, clearly we would hope to do much better going forward than in the most recent quarter. Finally, one thing to, you know, just make you aware of, we alluded to a little bit in our disclosures. It's early to talk about specific, you know, purchase price adjustments and what have you in the Numis closing process, our current expectation is that we would impair the goodwill attached to that immediately on closing, so in the fourth quarter, producing about a EUR 200 million item there also, that we would think of as non-operating. For your models to... and awareness. On CLPs, I'll try to be shorter. Look, the guidance takes into account everything we know today.
The environment on balance is in line with our expectations, and if I go all the way back to the beginning of the year, maybe even a little better than our expectations. We did have the idiosyncratic items in the first quarter, and IPB come through, and that sort of pushed us up in our range. Otherwise, at the call it 30 basis points, we think it captures, you know, our expectations about the second half. You know, we see this as a slightly elevated, but not a broad deterioration of the credit environment. We're very comfortable with the guidance there.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Nicholas.
Next question is from the line of Adam Terelak with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Morning, all. Thank you for the questions. I've got one on capital and one on NII. On capital and capital return, good to see the EUR 450 million, but I wanna poke around a little bit beyond that. Your pro forma CET1 is 13.1% post your headwinds, your capital generative. would it be possible for a buyback to or another leg to come as soon as the full year results? And then you're clearly highlighting EUR 8 billion of total capital return through the 2022-2025 plan, of which you've only done EUR 1.75 billion. just a sense of how quickly you need to accelerate capital return plans in order to get through that full EUR 8 billion, I think would be really helpful to investors.
The 450 is helpful, but people wanna know what's coming beyond that. Secondly, on NII, you're talking about the long-dated NII tailwind within the private bank. This makes sense, given that the nature of that business, but can you put some numbers to it? I think there's worries in the market around peak NII, but a sense of what that recurring tailwind into 2024, 2025, 2026 and even beyond would look like, would give us a bit more confidence about your revenue trajectory beyond this year. A bit more color around volume of hedges or kind of the backbook rate on those hedges would really give us a bit more some more to play with when we think about the longer term NII story. Thank you.
Thank you, Adam, for your questions. Let me start with your capital question, then I hand over to James, with regard to the NII question and some more details beyond the comments I made before. Look, on the capital. First of all, thank you very much for the recognition of the EUR 450 million. You know, it's, I think, hugely important for management to deliver that what we have promised, and so far, what we have promised, we delivered. Therefore, one thing is clear, the EUR 8 billion absolutely stand. That is, that is our target.
Based how the company evolves, how actually the capital ratio looks like, if I think about the growth, you just heard from James, how committed we are on the cost line, and hence, to further increase the operating leverage, we have full confidence in delivering the EUR 8 billion. We clearly understand that obviously this should be a continuous trajectory. Therefore, I also said in the prepared remarks, it is clearly our aim to continue that distribution in 2024. Now you will understand, after we just published our share buyback last night, that we won't give you the details for next year, because this also always requires a detailed planning. Our planning around starts in September.
I think we have such a constructive relationship with our regulator that warrants the next discussion. Looking where we see the firm, it is our clear aim to continue this trajectory in 2024. I think we have gone on a pretty nice journey with an annual increase of 50% when it comes to dividend. We did this not only on the dividend side, but also on the share buyback. As we think this is exactly the right approach, one can potentially think that this is the management aim also to do that in 2024. Hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a way forward, but clearly it's not back-end loaded only in 2025. We know what we have to deliver in 2024. James?
Adam, thank you for the question. You know, there's so much that goes into banks, sort of rate hedging and profiles, it is hard to pull out. You know, the hedging on the PB portfolio is longer than CB, and more EUR heavy. That effect will be with us for several years after 2024. You know, it's been a while since I've looked at this in this way, but my memory is that uplift is sort of between EUR 200 million and EUR 300 million per year for a period of time. That uplift is considerable just on the rate side.
If you've got volumes and sort of a spread dynamic, sort of more active hedging, as well as capital benefits and improving unsecured spreads, you know, there's a number of different features that can help support the NII of the group and the businesses over time. Isolating that item, good story. There's sustainable growth that comes after 2024, and actually already in 2024, especially in the second half, but it's one of a number of supportive items. Hopefully, that helps give you some color on it.
Yeah, that helps. Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Kian Abouhossein with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to come back to the cost. If I understand this correctly, we should think more of a cost run rate per month of EUR 1.675. That gets me to EUR 20.1 billion annualized. Is there any other factors that you think we should consider rather than this constant adjustment of the cost base? Can you share that with us? If there's anything else, any curve balls that we should think which could impact cost in 2024, 2025 going forward? In that context, on the stated cost basis, can you just clarify what we should think of as a run rate, severance and litigation expenses? You mentioned numbers in the past, but they might have changed based on the experience of second quarter.
The second question I have is regarding the private bank. You're running at a clean cost income around 76%. Still looks very high, considering how the higher rates have helped you on the NII, and I was thinking how we should think about the cost income development, and in particular, cost development, absolute in the private bank. Thank you.
Thank you, Kian. Yeah, now 1.675 is not a bad place to think of in terms of exit rate. You know, we'd be pleased to run the company at there over the course of next year. There are always curve balls, you know, in the expense world, but You know, and that's what I mean by running downhill. I think that the tools that we have to manage those curve balls hopefully begin to expand, as we come out of a shrinking control remediation, you know, repairing our technology estate world of the, call it the past five years, and move into a growth, and an accelerating benefit from initiatives underway world.
Leave FX aside for a second, because that'll obviously change the run rate going forward. Otherwise, you know, I'd say inflation is tough, especially on the technology side. How much inflation flows through? Again, I want to be clear, because we have so much coming on the expense initiative side, it would then give us the flexibility to phase and time some of the investments in a way that gives us control and allows us to manage that. Obviously, we'd like to make the investments and investments that are, you know, high return, low marginal cost income ratio is the direction of travel, but that gives us sort of additional levers.
Litigation, severance and restructuring, obviously, the second is in our control. We would probably tell you that a typical severance year, if nothing else is going on, is a maybe EUR 100- EUR 150 per year, so not gigantic. But it really just depends on whether there are larger programs that we initiate and then put aside. But obviously we'd like to get to the end of a period of time where major initiatives are necessary as part of the transformation of the company. Then on litigation, you know, that's been hard to estimate.
In fairness, there have been items that have taken us by surprise, both last year, with the third party messaging, as an example, in this most recent quarter, with a number of items. One always has the view that as you get through items, they're behind you know, you've taken out the risk, and then therefore the forward, you know, list of matters begins to diminish. But it's, and the run rate there, therefore, is hard to define properly. We'd love for that to be, you know, sub 400, in a year, let alone in a quarter.
On Private Bank, Christian will wanna add, but, you know, the operating leverage in Private Bank will be, we think, dramatic over the years ahead, and that's really the story there.
Well, you took my words because Kian, I think you are right. Obviously, we are not yet happy with the cost income ratio we have in the private bank. If you see only on the cost side, what is still to come, just because of the finalization now of Unity, EUR 300 million of costs will fall away in 25. We have branch closures further to come. I think in the last quarter or in the last two quarters, we closed approximately 90 or 100 branches. That goes on. This is continuing.
You have seen our announcement on the mortgage side, that we are actually reducing there also our people in that business as a consequence of our business mix and the capital allocation. I think on the cost side, in the Private Bank, if I also look at all the key deliverables under Rebecca's wing, where she's now working with Claudio de Sanctis on, there is a clear cost takeout on itself, and I haven't even touched now on the revenue side. On the revenue side, actually, clear upside. I just gave you a little bit of number for the second half of 2023. This is not extraordinary income, this is just better revenues that we initially planned.
That will continue also, when I look at the plan in the year 2024 and 2025, also on the back of the NII comments James made earlier. All that brings us actually into a cost income range for the private bank, which is in the low sixties, and that in 2025. That is our plan. We feel exactly on that trajectory. I do also think with the announcements Claudio made on making the structure now after building up the private bank internationally and private in Germany, under Karl's leadership, now moving it together, there is additional costs which we actually take out. I'm absolutely confident that we can achieve this low sixties cost income ratio then in 2025.
Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Stuart Graham with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a couple, please, geeky questions on your CRE exposures. Thank you for the extra information in the interim report. You now talk about non-recourse loans of EUR 40 billion, I think that's a different definition to the EUR 33 billion you talked about at the Q1 stage. My question is, why the change in definition, and what is the like for like figure to the EUR 33 billion at Q1? Secondly, you talk about an additional EUR 800 million of stressed bad debt provisions for CRE, presumably some of that's already captured in your basic provisioning guidance, given the current provisioning run rate of EUR 100 million a quarter for CRE. How much of that EUR 800 million is incremental stressed provisioning not captured in your current guidance, please? Thank you.
Yeah. On the second question, great question. Probably around EUR 500 million of the EUR 800 million, not in. And it depends, by the way, Stuart, on the timeframe you choose. Over this year and next, we would expect another, you know, few hundred million of total provisions to come in, and therefore, I would say about EUR 500 million incremental. We had been working hard on that, on that disclosure. And also, to your question about definitions, what we were trying to clean up is two things. One is the NAICS code disclosure, which is a, you know, is an industry definition, but to be fair, not really how we think about risk managing the portfolio.
Therefore, we wanted to bridge from the NACE at around EUR 40 billion. Within the NACE definition, there's non-recourse and recourse. Ironically, there's also some non-recourse outside of the NACE definition in these numbers. We're trying to give you know, sort of reconcile, if you like, to some of the existing external disclosures. What I think is important though, is this kind of the 33 of the old focus portfolio, the 34 of the new focus portfolio. We're trying to give you a sense of the size of the perimeter that is our focus from a risk management perspective, where we think, you know, what is the portfolio that can produce losses based on its exposure to the current environment?
That's a little bit different today than it was in the COVID time when we first created the focus portfolio, hence, also, a shift to that. Not a meaningful, you know, difference in terms of total exposures. That's hopefully some color, Stuart, to help you understand what we were trying to do for you in that disclosure.
Yep. I should basically forget the EUR 33 billion and just focus on the new disclosure, yeah?
Look, the problem with the Pillar 3 is often that the industry disclosure in the Pillar 3 is really tough to draw meaningful conclusions from. Yeah, short answer is, trust us that we're doing our very best to show you the portfolio that we are focused on risk managing in those disclosures.
Yep.
Stuart, I cannot help myself as a former risk manager to comment on that because A, the downside, which we now included with EUR 800 million, is obviously something which is over multiple years. It's not only this year and next year, so it's a real downside spread over multiple years. Therefore, I don't want that this is now taken in any wrong context, and you think this is a hidden way to increase our base case. Not at all. We feel that transparency may even help you to see how strong this portfolio is.
That's helpful. Thank you for the extra transparency. Thank you.
Pleasure. Thank you, Stuart.
Next question is from the line of Jeremy Sigee with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I've got a couple of questions on capital, please. The first one is, you mentioned that you've now got very friendly relations with ECB, and I think it's a nice positive surprise that you've got this approval perhaps earlier than we were expecting. You know, it didn't have to wait for you to print the 1H numbers. You've already got the approval. I just wondered if you could talk about what's changed in that regulatory relationship, because obviously, you were in a tougher situation at the start of the year when you couldn't do the buybacks that you wanted. I just wondered what the main change is, whether it's sort of visibility on your headwinds or other factors. Sort of what has changed in that regulatory context and, you know, these approvals being so forthcoming now?
My second question, also on capital, I just wondered if you had any perspectives on the U.S. Basel III finalization that's coming through, and just how that might impact you either You know, does it impact your local U.S. business, or do you already have such a high CET1 ratio there that it's not particularly affected? You know, does it affect competitive position for the group in the U.S. or elsewhere? Does it create pressure for Europe to tighten up its implementation of Basel III finalization? Any views on that would be really interesting?
Yeah, Jeremy, let me start, and I hate to correct you, but I think I said very constructive, I must be careful. I don't wanna say friendly, because that may be even taken wrong then. We have a very constructive relationship with our regulator, and that should be always the case. Look, what changed, and James may want to add for this, I think, actually nothing really changed. We ourselves, at the beginning of the year, as we always said, in November and December, said we want to wait how 2023 is starting, how the economy is actually developing. We would like to see how the first quarter is developing.
We, as we now can say, we didn't actually apply for a share buyback at that point in time, because we wanted to see what is going on in this world. The volatility was around. We have the geopolitical uncertainties. We had an inflation. You know, the economic forecast were everything between a hard recession and actually a growth scenario. Therefore, I think rightly so, also with all that, what we could see, James, decided and with my full support, that we, for the time being, hold off. Then we started well into the year. We had a far better forecast what is happening.
We saw how stable the business is developing and we saw we are making good progress, and that was the right time then also with the forecast into 2023 and 2024 to apply for that. In this regard, I think we had very constructive discussions, and, you know, this is my own assumption and only interpretation. I do think that the regulator also actually recognized that we were on the cautious side at the end of 2022, when it came to the start of 2023. I think that also then obviously was at least not taken negatively.
Jeremy, just to add that, you know, the timing and magnitude of the, of the reg changes is something that they and we had more visibility into as, as timing went on, as the model and methodology changes. That was helpful in terms of giving us, you know, greater confidence in that capital plan. You know, I think the step off now in Q2, you know, helps to support that further, and of course, that was the progress during the year was visible to them through the year. U.S. Basel III final framework, you know, obviously very curious to see what's in it.
I don't think it really impacts us in a meaningful way, in terms of our business operations, potentially competitive positioning, given that in our view, European banks had been at a capital disadvantage for some time. Then there's also at least the possibility that the timing of implementation could give us a bit more breathing room relative to the 1st of January 2025, but beyond that, not much expected. I would not expect that the European legislator sort of reopens its discussions based on whatever they read in the NPR, and I think that's appropriate, where Europe should decide for itself what the appropriate, you know, legislation and implementation looks like.
That's really helpful. Thank you.
Thank you, Jeremy.
Next question is from the line of Timo Dums with DZ Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. I would like to address two strategic topics, please. One is on PB and one on the Miles & More deal. Starting with PB, I mean, there has been a reshuffling under the new leadership with Claudio De Sanctis taking over. When do you plan to communicate further details on if you could share any further details to some color there, and would you also considering, for instance, streamlining the different brands that you are working with in PB? That would be question number one. On the Miles & More deal, congratulations on this one. Maybe you could outline the major drivers here, why you have been chosen, and what may have changed here in that respect compared with some years ago?
Maybe, could you discuss also the general attractiveness of this co-branded card business? I mean, some of your competitors, they pulled away from this sort of business in the last two years. Thank you.
Well, thank you, Timo . On the PB side, look, Claudio de Sanctis started 24, five days ago, let me start differently. First of all, I think Karl has done a wonderful job in actually making sure that the private banking business is becoming a profitable business. He has done a lot in order to make sure that we are on the trajectory to become a very profitable business, as we said also to Kian Abouhossein's question. The trajectory which Karl has laid is exactly the right one.
What we will see actually in the, in the private banking business is actually that the international private banking business and the German private banking business is moving closer together from a product responsibility, from an investment responsibility, also from an infrastructure and servicing responsibility. You will see a more leaner structure, which we now can do after we have done the necessary steps in Germany with Unity. We can now actually pull it under a more combined and efficient leadership together, which obviously will bring certain cost benefits. On top of that, I do believe that Claudio will focus very much across the private banking business on the investment arm, on the capital light arm. You have seen that he has done that very successfully in the International Private Bank.
I do believe if I look at the long-term challenges, in particular in Germany, if you really think about what the people are concerned about, it's about their pensions. It's about the state pensions, which will come or not come in 10 or 15 years. In this regard, there is in almost each and every client meeting, there is a question: How can I actually plan for my own retirement in that time period? For that, you need a first-class offering on the investment side. That's exactly where you need the private banking experience, private banking expertise, which we have with Claudio, which we have with a lot of other people, and that's, I think, where Claudio is very much focusing on.
Secondly, he will make sure that also this offering in a digital way, will make its way to 15 million clients, now all on the same IT platform. That is really a meaningful step forward, so I'm very proud what happened with Unity. I do think the power which we can now bring, in particular in the investment business, to Deutsche Bank clients, but in particular to 15 million Postbank clients, being now part of our technology, is simply outstanding, and Claudio will focus on that. On the Miles & More, look, I haven't seen, by the way, from the competition, and also from the deal in itself, that the competition was not interested anymore in such a deal. That was a real race.
We are super proud that we were able to be selected by Miles & More and by Lufthansa. What made the difference? At the end of the day, our client can far better talk about that. I will not talk about that. The client took a decision. I do believe that our shift four years ago, that the Corporate Bank, the day-to-day business, the combination, the client centricity, which we have built between the Private Bank, the Corporate Bank, the way these two units work together and worked in that pitch, made a difference.
We delivered one Deutsche Bank to Lufthansa. One Deutsche Bank to Lufthansa is not only the best platform for Miles & More and the best technology, which by the way, we started to invest already last year in order to be ready now to really do the migration. What we deliver to them is EUR 15 million additional potential clients, and that nobody else has. With the commitment of the full board, that the Private Bank and the Corporate Bank is as much as the heart of the Deutsche Bank business as our focus Investment Bank, I think the clients get it. They want then to work with us. I think that is the advantage which we can deliver.
I can tell you, that is only the start, because with that mandate, we will, I think, have a big, big chance to win other card businesses in Germany and in Europe.
Wonderful. Thank you very much.
Next question is from the line of Andrew Lim with Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got three, if I may. The first one on capital. Could you update us on the impact you'll probably see from final Basel III rules? I think the most latest guidance was for risk weight inflation of about EUR 30 billion. If I'm not mistaken, that excludes the impact of the output floor. Maybe you could also give us additionally what that impact might be from the output floor. On slide 9 of the presentation, on net interest margin, I see that your average interest earning assets have been declining for a few quarters here. You've pointed to lower cash balances as a cause for Q2.
Is there something a bit more persistent going on in terms of maybe high interest rates denting demand for loans, or maybe also the contribution from the reduction in sub-hurdle lending? Maybe that has a larger impact here. If you could talk about that in a bit more detail. Then the third question is a bit more technical. You've got EPS of only EUR 0.19 here. I'm trying to reconcile the net profit that you've used to calculate this. It's only EUR 402 million, which is a lot lower than EUR 763 million. I'm trying to understand how you get to the 402. Both of these measures include the deduction of AT1 coupons.
Is there some other OCI impacts here, to get to EUR 402 from EUR 763? Thank you very much.
Andrew, I just, I'm not sure exactly what you were talking about in those last numbers, so we may need to clarify the area that you were at. On the capital impact, I'd say we would probably stick with our earlier commentary, which I think was 10%, but it's been a while since we've looked at that incremental of the output floor, then between 25% and 30%. In fairness, you know, that's all pre-mitigation, business model changes and all that good stuff. There's no update on that, but that would be orders of magnitude.
I think important to emphasize the capital measures that we talked about in April, I mean, you can ask were they intended to support, you know, offsetting Basel III impacts or to support the distribution, you know, same. They're really, I think, valuable in both respects to, and to shift the group to, you know, more capital light usage of the balance sheet. Goes a little bit to your NIM or interest earning assets question. I'd be surprised if the next number in the series were as big as a downward movement as the last three.
Albeit loan growth has clearly slowed down, you're seeing the impact now of some of the decisions we announced in April around trade finance and lending, as well as the mortgage book. We would expect to see some impact in the loan balances as a consequence. We think that that's the right decision economically, in terms of supporting both RoTE and NIM going forward. Maybe I wanna make sure I understand the reconciliation that you're referring to in terms of Was it a forward on capital that you were after, or? I wasn't sure.
Sorry, yeah. Okay, if I could clarify further. On the supplementary disclosures on page 21, you give the net profit there of EUR 402 million to calculate your EPS of EUR 0.19. That EUR 0.19 obviously is a lot lower than last quarter of EUR 0.63. I'm trying to understand how you get to that EUR 402, because on slide 15, you've got net profit of EUR 763. There's a big downshift here in the net profit, and I can't quite figure out how you get to that EUR 402. There doesn't seem to be any kind of disclosure there?
That's on the, on the EPS side, what I wanted to-
I don't think there's a mystery. I think it's just, it's that we've got about EUR 2 billion and change shares outstanding, so it looks to me to be proportional to the, to the number. We'll, we can quadruple check and come back to you. Again, we obviously have to take out. In an EPS calculation, we take out all of the earnings, you know, that if you like, to go to other capital providers, whether that's minority interests or AT1 holders.
Yeah. No, sure, completely agree. I mean, it seems like those two lines are exactly the same, except for Q2, where suddenly it's different. I mean, it seems like you're deducting everything like AT1 coupons, for example, and also minority interests. Pat, I can chase it up with you.
Yeah, we can follow up on that.
Okay, great. Sorry, no guidance on the output floor then? Is that something we have to wait for later on, I guess?
That was the first part. It was, you know, our ballpark of 10% over several years with a lot still to kind of, to go in terms of how we, you know, shift the balance sheet in order to mitigate what we can in that output floor impact.
The 10% increase in total RWAs.
Exactly.
Over time. Yeah. Okay, great.
That was.
Thank you very much.
A denominator that was closer to 300, maybe 330 than to 350 or even 400, where we'll be by that time. You have to go back several years to the point where we gave you a percentage there.
That's great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Next question is from line of Vishal Shah with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you so much for your presentation. I had two questions. The first one was on capital returns. Clearly with the new buyback announced, your distributions are now at EUR 1.75 billion, remaining is EUR 6.25 billion to that EUR 8 billion total target. If I take your 50% payout policy, you would need to generate about EUR 13 billion plus in net income over the next two years. This is much higher versus consensus at, you know, about EUR 9 billion right now, combined for 2024 and 2025. I'm wondering what are the key drivers you're looking at to bridge that gap? That's one. The second one is on your investment banking business.
You have clearly hired a lot on the front office side there in both banking and capital markets, plus there is the Numis deal that is underway, too. Clearly you're positioning for a potential rebound in banking and capital markets activity. I mean, what I wanted to check there is if you have a target market share in mind, in terms of where you want to see your banking business versus the global peers, or, you know, with the recent hiring and the new Numis deal, do you think you are, you know, right sized from a staffing perspective, at least for now? That's about it.
Vishal, yeah, on the first item, you're probably just missing a year. It's a little bit complex the way we do it, but we've said in respect of the years 2021 to 2025, paid in the years 2022, and this would include a little bit of capital then returned in or a lot of capital returned in 2026. We think our, you know, on the trajectory that we're on, which, remember, is sort of asymptotic. If you go 50% per year, the increase is quite steep, and we think also prudent in light of our own view of the earnings growth potential of DB. On the IB item, and I'll focus now on Origination & Advisory, where the investments have been going or, you know, they'd be more visible perhaps.
There have been investments into the FIC platform, which we think have performed very nicely in terms of our market share improvements, from a low point in 2018 and 2019 to where we are today. We're very pleased with that, with that progression. In the corporate finance area, where we've invested more recently, you know, our market share has been bouncing around 2%. We do think there's a significant opportunity for us there.
We don't have a specific target, but I don't think there's any reason why we shouldn't be able to double the market share, in, again, with our in a disciplined way, inside our client footprint, inside our capital footprint, but by doing, you know, just much better, in terms of closing industry gaps, in terms of, you know, building more of the chain, for example, with private equity sponsors, you know, both on the way in and the way out. There's a lot of potential that is, if you like, within our franchise perimeter, that we really just haven't captured. Lots of upside for us there, I believe.
Thank you so much.
Thanks, Vishal.
Next question is from line of Tom Hallett with KBW. Please go ahead.
Hi, Jeff, just a quick one. I've noticed you guys, in recent weeks, have increased your confidence in the trading activity to pick up in the second half of the year. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate on that, because, you know, the second quarter was actually pretty strong, and last year, prior periods were also very strong on a relative basis. Yeah, I would just like to know what gives you that confidence? Is it just a simple kind of, you know, maybe the credit side of things you know, increasing a little bit more into the back end of the year? Thank you.
Yeah. Tom, you know, first of all, the comparative that we've got for the fourth quarter isn't very demanding. I do think there's just in that there's a real opportunity to take the year-over-year in revenue up significantly. I think we're in an interesting time. We've talked about the macro weakening in lower volatility, You've started to see that against a high base and one where we think we're executing well in terms of our client engagement. In the language I've been using, the micro coming back, especially credit and financing businesses doing quite well.
You know, an interesting question, is there an environment in which the credit stays, you know, that continues to do well in the second half and going into 2024? Because we find ourselves now on the other side of the cycle, you know, increasing volatility as investors now begin to position for an uncertain path in terms of reducing policy rates and an uncertain path in terms of the length of time the policy rates stay at the terminal rate. There's sort of an interesting environment that we see coming in the second half of the year.
We'll see whether that, what comes to fruition or not, but Ram Nayak and his team super focused on, is just engaging with our clients so that we can participate both in the flow side of that activity as well as the structured. I think they've done a fabulous job at that, and the second quarter is a good indication of how we can perform in that market or maybe a slightly better backdrop.
Okay, thanks, James.
Thanks, Tom.
Next question is from the line of Mate Nemes, with UBS. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. I have two questions, please. The first one is on capital. I was just wondering if you could give us a rundown of the moving parts on the CET1 ratio in the second half of the year. I know that you communicated a 70 basis point impact from numerous deal closing, the share buyback and some of the regulatory changes. I think Christian mentioned securitization and reduction in software lending, potentially resulting also in some RWA reduction. Could you perhaps quantify that? The second question is on the Corporate Bank. Obviously, the loan book declined about 4% quarter-on-quarter. I know some of that is intentional, and it's clearly coming from risk management and perhaps some impact on some current lending.
I'm just wondering, to what extent do you see future demand? Is that entirely driven by you? And if so, when do you expect the turnaround on that front? Thank you.
Sure. Thank you, Mate. Briefly, the 70 basis points is we're still thinking 50 basis points of model methodology adjustments. There's a range around that. Then 9 basis points for Numis, 12 basis points for the capital return. You know, the other moving parts are organic capital generation and how much we use in terms of balance sheet growth. That should produce a year-end ratio, probably higher than our original guidance for the year. You know, we're probably closer to or further into the 13s, let's say, than just the 200 basis points margin to MDA, which would be 13.2.
Within that, we do have embedded some assumptions about what additional support we can get from securitizations, optimization, and other of the capital measures. I think if we outperform those assumptions or our own, you know, execution, sort of path, that puts us in an even better position, going into 2024, both for distributions and for the Basel III build. Those are some of the moving parts that we see.
Yeah, on your, on your second question, I think your kind of differentiation is right on. Some of the lower loan growth or even decline is intentionally, by the way, not only from a risk management point of view, because we have actually a very conservative and long-standing risk appetite, and therefore, we don't need to do so many adjustments in between. Of course, also we have sub-hurdle relationships where we, and we said that in April, where we want to go for an even better and more focused risk-return strategy, and that's what we are doing. That is one part.
Secondly, yes, I think, in particular in Europe, but also in Germany, you see that mid-cap companies, family-owned companies, that you see a softening in loan growth and a reduction in demand for the time being, in particular, when it comes to long-term investments. To be honest, I don't think that this is something which is continuing for a very long period, but I would say that those companies would like to see where the next six to 12 months are going. Therefore, I would say this rather soft loan growth is something which we will see in the second half of 2023, which is part of our planning, and also, which goes into the first half year of 2024.
Nevertheless, therefore, again, it is so important that we build the corporate bank on various engines, the other engines are, the fee income, our cash management mandates, the card business I was just talking about before. That actually gives us all the confidence that even with the softening demand, which in my view is only temporary and will come back, we can actually compensate that with fee business, and that is the reason why we invested in, into that so much.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Last question is from the line of Amit Goel with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. Yeah, two questions. One, just coming back on the asset quality. I think obviously there's a commentary about, there's no sign of persistent deterioration, although there was some softening in German midcap sectors, including automotive. I'm just kind of curious, what gives you the confidence that it's not persistent deterioration and/or, are you changing any behavior or your, you know, credit that you provide, into that space? Secondly, just, I guess, just to help my understanding, but in terms of pass-through rates, so for the NIM, what are the factors that are kind of driving the lower pass-through rates?
I appreciate, you know, maybe there's some conservative assumptions, but what are the things that you think will drive, you know, changes, or kind of increase in pass-through, as we kind of go through time? Just curious, what are the factors that you think are influencing pass-through at the moment and into the second half of the year? Thank you.
Well, thank you for your questions. Let me start on the asset quality, because I'm also in a lot of client contact actually, also in Germany, obviously. I really do believe, and I said it again and again, the resilience of the family-owned companies and the midcap companies in Germany is bigger than a lot of people think. If I think about how they actually improved from the 2008 global financial crisis, if you think about how they actually increased capital, how they improved their working capital systems, their liquidity, this is a completely different picture than it was 15 years ago.
I'm saying it because they go with a different buffer into the situation which we have right now, and that's also what we are seeing, not only in our portfolio, but if you actually look at the overall statistics, there is no such thing like a material deterioration in the credit worthiness of the German midcap companies. What is then specifically on us, and I do believe if I even go further back to Deutsche Bank's history in 2002 and 2003, when we actually had too many credit losses in that area, we completely changed the way we are managing credit risk also for medium and family-owned corporates when it comes to concentration risk.
When it comes to differentiating between, sort of say, winners and potential companies which are more challenged in a certain industries, we have a clear industry view and not only the specific company view. By that, I think our risk management to the individual review of corporates is simply a superior one. I personally just went last week through the, for instance, the OEM suppliers in Germany. If I look at the portfolio, how diversified we are, from a rating point of view, from a concentration risk point of view, i.e., that there are no big concentration risk.
If we have larger risk, it's actually with investment grade companies who are actually themselves diversified globally in their business, then I do believe that there may be a little bit of deterioration in that portfolio, but I can't see that we are coming into a situation where I would see a material deterioration of our midcap portfolio. Looking at their own resilience and the way we have risk managed that, I'm confident that obviously our portfolio is in good health. James?
On pass-through, it's, you know, it's an interesting topic, and in some ways it's gonna be too early to tell, so we'll all sort of do the analysis of this cycle once it's over. I think a few things. One, I think the dollar. It's different by currency. I think the dollar has started to converge, perhaps not to model, but to a place that looks to us to potentially be where things settle out a little bit better than the models would have expected. The euro is still well behind. What's driving that? I think there's discipline, you know, pricing discipline in the industry. I think there's an element of this cycle is different because of how sharp and, you know, how steep and how fast it was.
I think there's an element that the banking industry, you know, had a long time of negative and, you know, is seeking to recover some of that sort of lost structural profitability. I think client behavior is also a piece of the puzzle here. Obviously they're especially the more you go to wholesale money, they're smart enough to move their money with, to places that it earns a higher yield. They also know they need to leave a certain amount of money with the banks, and they understand that the remuneration of that, you know, for payments and operational purposes, and they understand that the remuneration for that money is, you know, doesn't follow the market because there are services attached to it.
I think that's an understanding of the business model that's maybe better than it has been in the past. Lots of different drivers we'll need to unpack in time, but one that I think is overall a bullish sign for the industry, of the value that banks frankly are providing to their clients, not just in corporate and middle market, but also in the retail space.
Thank you. Thank you both.
Thank you very much for your interest and questions. If there are any further questions you have, please reach out to the investor relations with the department, and have a good day. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.