Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q1 2026 analyst conference call and live webcast. I'm Moritz, your conference call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2026 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, Raja Akram. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the investor relations section of our website, db.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Christian.
Thank you, Ioana, and good morning from me. We are very pleased with our first quarter performance. We proved our resilience in an environment of heightened uncertainty and delivered record net profits as we continue to build on our strong foundations. Our financial strength enabled us to support clients to make a very solid start to this phase of our strategy and to create value for our shareholders. Both our key metrics improved over the already strong prior year quarter. Post-tax return on tangible equity rose to 12.7%, and our cost income ratio improved to below 59%. This gives us a strong start on our path towards our targets. We generated revenues of EUR 8.7 billion, up 2% or 6% excluding FX impacts, even against the strong performance in the prior year quarter, driven by focused growth areas and improving business mix.
Costs reflect disciplined execution of our strategy. We self-funded investments by realizing efficiencies as planned. Our capital position is solid. We finished the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.8%, well within our operating range of 13.5%-14%. Strong organic capital generation enabled us to support both business growth and deductions for distributions, which are in line with our new payout ratio of 60%. We also made good progress on the EUR 1 billion share buyback we announced last quarter. Around 60% is already completed, and we will update the market on the next distribution in respect of 2026 in due course. Let me now turn to the progress we made on scaling the global house bank on Slide 3. We see tangible progress across all three levers we outlined at the Investor Deep Dive last November.
In respect of focused growth, in our asset gathering businesses, we see clear momentum in both revenues and assets under management, driven by continued net inflows from clients. Strict capital discipline enabled us to deliver positive SVA in the quarter. We continue to reduce sub-hurdle mortgages in the Private Bank and redeploy resources to wealth management and within Corporate Lending. We also made progress on a scalable operating model, particularly in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank. We are using AI to accelerate core processes, for example, to significantly accelerate the credit process in the Corporate Bank, thus improving client experience, supporting growth and taking out costs. The franchise performance indicators we discussed in November are also demonstrating progress.
Assets under management increased nearly 9% to EUR 1.8 trillion year on year or 1% during the quarter, as we attracted net flows of EUR 22 billion with around EUR 11 billion each in Private Bank and Asset Management. Loans grew to EUR 486 billion, up by around EUR 4 billion since a year ago or EUR 7 billion since the last quarter. Deposits were EUR 687 billion, up by EUR 22 billion or 3% since the first quarter last year and were broadly stable compared to the prior quarter. These developments were accompanied by strong performance across our businesses, as you can see on Slide 4. Looking at our divisional performance, two points are clear. First, earnings mix and balance are improving.
Our non-investment banking businesses with more predictable earnings streams account for a larger share of group profits compared to the same quarter last year. Second, we have delivered strengths across the board with all businesses firing on all cylinders. All four divisions achieved a return on tangible equity of either close to or well above 13%. In the Private Bank, we made strong progress on our transformation agenda. We hired about 100 coverage staff with 80 already on board, and we are ahead of schedule on branch closures with around 75% completed for 2026. The Private Bank increased client assets by EUR 30 billion since the start of the year with net AUM inflows of EUR 11 billion, primarily driven by investment products. Asset Management achieved EUR 11 billion of total net flows, mainly in passive and cash.
DWS agreed to acquire a 40% minority stake in Nippon Life India Alternative Investment Fund, reinforcing our asset gathering capacity. Corporate Bank saw sustained momentum in growing business volumes year-on-year, with loans up 6% and deposits up 2%. Investment Bank performance was again very solid this quarter. We continue to support our clients in volatile markets with client activity up 8% despite a very strong prior year. We are pushing forward the Investment Bank's commitment to innovative tech-led solutions. We launched a partnership with BlackRock, integrating our multi-award-winning house FX technology suite into their Aladdin platform. This collaboration represents a significant step forward in delivering automated and cost-efficient FX solutions to the global asset management industry.
Before I hand over to Raja, I want to share my thoughts on our strategic direction in a dynamic operating environment, where recent geopolitical developments continue to underscore the importance of resilience and disciplined execution, but also underline our global house bank strategy. While the outlook for the global economy might be uncertain, the current conflict underlines Europe's need for self-reliance and strategic autonomy and investment in defense and other capabilities. When it comes to Germany, we want to reiterate that despite lower growth estimates in 2026, our medium-term view is unchanged as there are tailwinds from fiscal stimulus, and we see scope for further measures going beyond the reform framework announced earlier this month. We will continue to actively leverage our leadership position in Germany. As we explained in November, we see significant growth opportunities, including private sector investments and reforms and defense and infrastructure plans.
For example, Deutsche Bank is part of a EUR 150 million long-term finance package for Quantum Systems, a Munich-based aerial defense systems company. We remain focused on supporting our clients in this dynamic environment. The strengths of our balance sheet, combined with our service capabilities and strategic positioning, means we are best placed to advise clients at European and global levels. From a risk perspective, we have very limited direct exposure to the Middle East and our portfolio performance remains well within our expectation, and we continue to monitor clients across industries. In line with our disciplined risk framework, we put in place a management overlay to reflect broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Looking ahead, we reaffirm our confidence in reaching our strategic goals and 2028 financial targets. Our first quarter results with returns of 12.7% show the strengths of our strategy.
Much of the upside we talked about in November is already visible, providing operational flexibility to reach our financial plan and create potential for further outperformance. We are encouraged by the progress made across our levers and the enhanced collaboration across our divisions. AI is advancing rapidly, and we are working closely across our businesses and functions to make sure we deliver maximum productivity, enhanced client experience. We see positive momentum in our operating environment. For example, EU policymakers continue to focus on European and banking competitiveness, including a more integrated capital market that would be very beneficial for European banks, and particular, Deutsche Bank. To sum up, we are strongly positioned to execute our scaling the global house bank strategy and deliver on our targets. With that, let me hand over to Raja.
Thank you, Christian. It feels great to be beginning my role as CFO with such strong results. It comes as we move into the next phase of our strategy. I'm excited to be part of this journey. Before I turn to the financials, a few comments on our revamped earnings deck. You will see some changes to the presentation format today, reflecting alignment with the strategy we outlined at our Investor Day and highlighting clear focus on execution, delivery, and accountability as we shift gears to scaling the global house bank. We promised in November that we'll give you regular updates on our performance indicators over the next three years. This is what we are doing today. Let me now turn to the performance for the quarter.
We delivered a solid first quarter with net revenues of EUR 8.7 billion, a return on tangible equity of 12.7% while maintaining a strong CET1 ratio of 13.8%. Profit before tax increased 7% year-on-year with broad-based contributions across the divisions. I'm particularly pleased with the performance in the asset gathering businesses and the corresponding greater pre-tax contributions of the private bank and asset management, both of which saw strong growth. The corporate bank return on tangible equity and performance indicators demonstrate visible underlying momentum, while the investment bank performance was solid against a strong prior year quarter. We showed discipline on cost, with the cost-income ratio improving to 58.9%. FX had a continued negative impact on revenues and a positive effect on expenses this quarter.
On a net basis, these movements had a negative impact on profitability. We are introducing a new disclosure on appendix Slide 23, which provides transparency on FX translation impacts for select P&L and balance sheet items to highlight how these impact operating performance. Notwithstanding the FX headwinds and against a dynamic backdrop, revenues continue to grow faster than costs, reflecting disciplined execution against our strategy. Let me now turn to revenues in more detail, starting on Slide 8. Net revenues were slightly higher year-over-year at EUR 8.7 billion, up 6% if adjusted for FX, reflecting growth across the franchise. We saw strong growth in the Private Bank, underpinned by both personal banking and wealth management. Asset Management was also up and benefited from a higher performance fees related to an infrastructure fund.
Corporate bank revenues were impacted, as expected, by FX and interest rate headwinds compared with the prior year period, which are already beginning to subside. Underlying business momentum is encouraging, with an increase in both loans and deposits year-on-year. first quarter investment bank revenues were broadly flat year-on-year despite significant market volatility and FX headwinds. FIC revenues were essentially flat compared to a record prior year quarter, with IBCM slightly higher from improved debt and equity origination performance. Looking at revenue composition, net interest income year-on-year revenue trends were impacted by accounting asymmetries, which benefited net interest income and offset trading and other revenues. Even adjusting for this, net interest income still saw a solid increase driven by volume growth and hedge rollovers, with trading and other income broadly flat year-on-year. Net commission and fee income performance showed continued strength, also benefiting from the higher performance in asset management.
Overall, I'm very happy with the evolution of our revenues. Our non-investment banking businesses now contribute over 61% to our revenue mix. Let me now move to NII on Slide 9. NII was strong at EUR 3.5 billion in the key banking book segments and other funding. Deposit-related NII has been stable over the past year as we have successfully offset the headwinds from interest rates with volume growth in our hedge portfolio and anticipate tailwinds going forward. Looking at the divisions, the Private Bank continued to show steady margin progression driven by increasing deposit revenues in both personal banking and wealth management. The Corporate Bank net interest income was stable, with clear signs of the rate headwinds on deposit NII diminishing compared to the prior quarter. In FIC financing, the revenues remained strong, supported by ongoing loan growth.
For the full year 2026, we expect NII across key banking book segments and other funding to increase to around EUR 14 billion. The performance in the first quarter and the current view for the long-term rates gives us conviction for the 2028 targets we outlined at the IDD. You can find details of the benefit from the long-term hedge portfolio rollover on Slide 25 of the appendix. Turning to Slide 10, you will notice two changes. First, we are focusing on non-interest expense rather than adjusted costs, as we said we would at the investor day. Second, we're presenting non-interest expense using the same categories at the investor day. On that basis, non-interest expenses were down 2% year-on-year at around EUR 5.1 billion.
Incremental investments, particularly in technology and hiring across wealth management and IBCM, were largely offset by operating efficiencies, while volume-related growth and inflation-driven expenses were the other main drivers. Importantly, we delivered operating efficiencies of around EUR 100 million in the first quarter already, supporting our multi-year efficiency ambition. These included headcount and target operating model measures alongside non-comp optimization. In short, this reflects our disciplined cost and investment culture, keeping plans aligned with the external environment, focusing on execution, and developing capabilities to deliver our long-term targets. With that, let me turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Starting with asset quality, overall portfolio performance remains strong. Provision for credit losses was EUR 519 million, reflecting additional reserves on a single name CRE exposure in the investment bank. In addition, we took a decision to take a macroeconomic management overlay.
Excluding the single name item, CRE provisions would have been materially lower on the quarter. Our higher-risk CRE portfolio has materially reduced since 2022. The remaining risks focus on a small subset of existing defaults, which reinforces our confidence in the headwind subsiding. As I mentioned, first quarter provisions include a EUR 90 million management overlay reflecting a forward-looking approach in a dynamic macroeconomic environment in light of the Middle East conflicts. Adjusted for these effects, underlying portfolio performance is in line with expectations and supporting a normalized average run rate for provisions of roughly 30 basis points through 2028, as discussed at the investor day. Within private credit, performance is stable with no losses, and the portfolio is broadly unchanged.
We take a highly selective approach to do business and continue to apply disciplined underwriting standards. The early transparency we provided last year and in our recent annual report came from a position of confidence in our portfolio. Turning to capital on Slide 12. As with costs, you will see a change in presentations of this slide. We're putting greater focus on the CET1 ratio itself and the underlying drivers, with risk-weighted assets shown as a key input given our growth agenda. Starting with the CET1 ratio, we ended the quarter at 13.8%, down 38 basis points compared to the fourth quarter, but squarely in line with our operating range. Net income, net of deductions for AT1 coupons, contributed 53 basis points, while deductions for distributions of 32 basis points represent the 60% payout ratio from 2026.
Other deductions of 11 basis points mainly relate to equity compensation, partly offset by reduced capital deduction items. Turning to risk-weighted assets. RWAs increased by EUR 12 billion, excluding FX effects of EUR 2 billion. This was driven mainly by EUR 6 billion of business growth in credit RWA, notably in loans in Corporate Bank and the Investment Bank, but also from derivatives and secured funding transactions. Market risk contributed additional EUR 2 billion of RWA. Other include changes in operational risk RWAs and smaller effects from updates to existing models. As mentioned earlier, and building on performance indicators introduced at the IDD in November, we have also refined the divisional pages to sharpen the focus on execution and provide a clear view of our strategic progress. Let's now turn to divisional performance, starting with the Private Bank on Slide 14.
Private bank delivered a strong first quarter performance with profit before tax up 39% year-over-year at a 7% operating leverage. We are very pleased with the trajectory of revenues, expenses, and attracting new client assets, a key goal for us. Client assets increased by 4% sequentially to EUR 821 billion, or by 6% excluding market and FX impacts, of which EUR 694 billion were assets under management, which marks the highest level ever. Client activity remains strong, with net assets under management inflows of EUR 11 billion predominantly into higher fee investment products. Record revenues of EUR 2.6 billion, up 5% year-over-year, were driven by a 13% increase in net interest income and slightly higher net commission and fee income.
Personal banking revenues increased by 5%, mainly from deposit revenue growth, partly offset by lower revenues from other banking services. Wealth management revenues grew by 5%, driven by higher deposit revenues and continued growth in discretionary mandates and capital market products, despite elevated market volatility late in the quarter. Non-interest expenses are slightly down 1%, mainly reflecting ongoing cost discipline, lower severances, as well as select targeted investments. The cost income ratio improved by 4 percentage points to 67% for the quarter. We will continue with our investment initiatives in the Private Bank throughout the year, including hiring and wealth management. Lower provision for credit losses reflects improved credit quality. Let me also add that over the past two years, the Private Bank has more than doubled its return on tangible equity and reduced its cost income ratio by 15 percentage points.
Over the same period, client assets grew by 20%, driven in particular by a 24% increase in investment products. In this first quarter alone, Wealth Management generated more than EUR 9 billion of investment product inflows, setting us up for a beat of 2025 inflows, nearly matching the full 2025 inflows in just the first quarter. These results underscore the strength of the business and its significant growth potential. Turning to Slide 15 to Asset Management segment. Return on tangible equity improved by 27 percentage points to 50%, with profit before taxes increasing by 37% year-on-year, driven by higher revenues and lower costs. As a reminder, and as outlined at our Investor Day, the return on tangible equity calculation now reflects the full allocation of the regular regulatory capital minority interest benefit to the Asset Management segment.
Revenues rose by 10% versus the prior year quarter as performance fees increased significantly, primarily due to the earlier than anticipated recognition of significant fees from an infrastructure fund. This was supported by higher management fees reflecting an increase in average assets under management. Other revenues declined year-on-year, mainly reflecting valuation of guaranteed products. Non-interest expenses decreased by 5%, mainly due to lower variable compensation and a reduction in non-compensation expenses, including litigation. The combination of higher revenues and lower costs resulted in a cost income ratio of 55.5%, an improvement of almost 9 percentage points compared to the prior year. Turning to flows. Quarterly net inflows amounted to EUR 11 billion, with long-term flows of around EUR 7 billion remaining a key growth driver, especially flows in passive products, including Xtrackers.
Cash had positive inflows of approximately EUR 5 billion as clients became more risk-averse due to the dynamic macro backdrop. Total assets under management increased further, driven by net inflows of EUR 11 billion and positive effects of EUR 8 billion, partially offset by negative market impacts of EUR 10 billion, primarily related to the recent market volatility. For further details, please see DWS's disclosure on the investor relations website. Let's move to the Corporate Bank on Slide 16 before closing with the Investment Bank. The Corporate Bank started the year with a strong return on tangible equity of 14.8%, up compared to the prior quarter and a cost income ratio of 63%. As previously discussed, Corporate Bank revenues will be impacted by FX and interest rate headwinds in the first half of the year. The end to that is clearly in sight.
On a reported basis, revenues in the first quarter were down 3% versus the prior year period. Adjusted for FX movements, Corporate Bank revenues were up 1% year-on-year and 5% growth in net commission and fee income and 2% growth net interest income, offset by a mark-to-market adjustment and an investment. This mark has already partially reversed in April given improved market conditions. In terms of business performance, corporate treasury services and business banking benefited from interest rate hedges and higher business volumes, while Institutional Client Services revenues were lower, driven by FX movements and the aforementioned mark-to-market. Business volumes were strong, with average deposits and loans both higher year-on-year and sequentially, and spot deposit balances normalizing from the elevated levels at the year-end.
Compared to the prior year and adjusted for FX movements, deposits increased by 5% on the spot and 8% on an average basis, primarily driven by higher site deposits in corporate cash management. Loans were up by 8% with strong growth in trade finance. Non-interest expenses were essentially flat as volume related growth and investments into our platforms were offset by FX movements. Provision for credit losses was lower during the quarter despite the management overlay reflecting the quality of our book. Looking ahead, we expect revenues to improve sequentially from here with an expected revenue growth in the mid-single digits on a reported basis as we exit the year supported by both fee and NII income. I'll now turn to the investment bank on Slide 17.
Revenues for the first quarter were essentially flat year-on-year despite the impact of macroeconomic and significant FX headwinds and against a record first quarter of 2025 in FIC. FIC markets were slightly lower year-on-year due to the reduced revenues and rates, partially mitigated by strength in FX. The business demonstrated resilient performance in volatile markets. FIC financing continued to grow year-on-year with revenues increasing 7%. Moving to IBCM, revenues were slightly higher, driven by improved performance in debt and equity origination. The prior year was impacted by a loss on the sale and markdown of a specific loan in LDCM. We continue to see strength in investment-grade debt, with the business increasing market share by 50 basis points compared to the full year 2025.
While the business did see a clear impact to the capital market issuance activity in the last few weeks of the quarter as a result of the Middle East conflict, market sentiment has improved in April, with the pipeline for the second quarter pointing towards revenue growth year-on-year. Non-interest expenses were essentially flat on year-on-year, with targeted investments and higher than other expenses offset by favorable FX impacts. Provision for credit losses was EUR 290 million, driven by the larger single name exposure and the management overlay I mentioned earlier. With that, I will turn to the outlook on Slide 18. Looking ahead, I'd like to close with the following.
First, we are confident in our revenue ambition of around EUR 33 billion, supported by key banking book NII and other funding growing to around EUR 14 billion, as well as growth in net commission and fee income. The expectations around interest rates are a tailwind and adding to our conviction around this number. Second, as demonstrated, we remain firmly committed to disciplined strategy execution. On cost and our investment plans, we confirm our expense guidance for 2026 and expect a gradual increase throughout the year in line with what we said at the Investor Day while retaining flexibility. In the second quarter, we expect increases in expenses, including from restructuring and severance costs in the Private Bank, to support our business-led front-to-back optimization agenda and generate in-year efficiencies as well as hiring across divisions. Third, we reiterate our guidance for provision for credit losses for 2026.
Asset quality remains strong and portfolios are performing in line with expectations. We remain vigilant given the evolving macroeconomic environment and took a management overlay, which may not be eventually needed when the Middle East situation normalizes. Fourth, we are comfortable with the trajectory and profitability and continue to expect strong operating performance in 2026. Finally, we want to deliver attractive capital returns going forward, which is why we increased our payout ratio to 60% and started to make deductions in CET1 capital to this ratio already in the first quarter. As we move through the year, we are intensifying our focus on a scalable operating model, carefully phasing investments with clear emphasis on accelerating structural efficiencies and disciplined cost control. This further strengthens our intent to deliver productivity and efficiency beyond the commitments we made for 2028.
As I finish my first quarter as CFO with a better view of the capabilities and opportunities since the investor day and taken together with our first quarter performance, I remain confident that with the strength of our franchise, the discipline of our execution, and the resilience of our business model, we are in a good place. From my perspective, we're just getting started. We have everything we need to deliver, and I'm exceptionally pleased that the business mix shift we had envisioned and planned for is already becoming visible. With that, we look forward to your questions.
Thank you, Raja. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from Tarik El-Mehadji from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one is regarding your revenue guidance and the mix in 2026 and during the plan. Maybe you can actually go a bit on more detailed outlook on each of divisions where you see the outlook for this year and next, and especially on the light of the recent developments and conflicts in the Middle East impacting the German economy as a whole. Maybe you can also touch a word on the FX dynamics in first half versus second half. The second question would be on RWA growth dynamics this quarter.
If you can discuss again what would be the key area that you think could reverse this trajectory in the second half and also the implications on distribution outlook, including when is the next share buyback should be expected. Thank you.
Hi, Tarik. Thank you for your question. Let me start and I'm sure Raja will add. Look, on the overall guidance for 2026, we remain absolutely confident that we can achieve the number which we have given to the market and indicated already end of January. The first quarter is only supporting that. We believe that EUR 33 billion of revenues is absolutely achievable, and with that, what we have achieved in Q1, that makes me even more confident. The nice thing about Q1 is actually the shift of or the composition of revenues which we have seen and also in those divisional revenue split, that the momentum is actually not one only which I saw in Q1, but which actually is continuing in April.
Let me start with the asset gathering business in the private bank and asset management. I'm actually really happy with that performance because it had a reason why we put that, so to say, as the first divisions to be presented at the IDD in November, and we can actually see the takeoff of that business. In particular, assets under management are growing. You have seen the net inflows in the private bank, in the asset management, and that goes hand in hand with the investments which we have done. Therefore, you know, this is not only a Q1 development, that is a development which we continue to see now in April, but which I expect to happen throughout the year. It goes in line with that, where we see the mega trends for the industry.
You know, you have heard all about the discussions on the German pension reform. You have heard me talking about, so to say, actually the survey which we have done in November. In Germany, when the Germans think about their state, their state pension money, which is expected to come, and that they actually now see the need that they need to do more. That is actually what we see day by day in the business in terms of inflows in the personal bank, but also obviously in wealth management. In wealth management, it's a reflection of the investments which we have done. We told you in November that we are investing into approximately 250 additional wealth managers.
We have hired 100, I think more than 80 are, so to say, on the ground. To be honest, the start could have not been better. Therefore, I expect that trend to continue, and therefore, I do believe that when it comes to divisional revenue outlook, Private Bank will be clearly up year-over-year, 26 over 25. Similar for Asset Management, nice development in Q1, but also there, again, based on the trend of our focus on the capital light business and the asset gathering business. With all that, what Stefan is doing also in terms of new partnerships, I think we outlined that in our prepared remarks. I can see the momentum continuing. Investment Bank, to be honest, I think a very solid development in Q1.
I know that we always compare to the U.S. banks, and rightly so, that's fair. A, we had obviously the foreign exchange headwind in this regard. Secondly, also the U.S. banks in particular grew in two areas, where we are actually not playing, i.e. equities and commodities. If I then do the real comparison, I'm very proud of what Ram and the team have done in the trading business. In IBCM, we see a year-over-year increase in Q1. To be honest, if I now see the pipeline for Q2 and Q3 filling, I'm actually quite positive about the momentum in the IBCM business.
That leads me to the belief that despite a very strong 2025 year in the Investment Bank, I think we see a year-over-year growth also in the Investment Bank. Corporate Bank, as we said, the real increase in revenue, so year-over-year we expect an increase, slight increase year-over-year, and the real increase will be in the second half of the year that we highlighted to the market early. That's exactly the development which we have seen. The nice thing about the Corporate Bank is that the lending book is increasing and obviously based on one of our three levers, SVA methodology, i.e., we are deploying the money there where it's value accretive. We are actually reducing the businesses in those areas in the Corporate Bank where we are not earning our SVA, where it's SVA negative.
We could see actually a nice shift already in Q1, therefore I'm very positive actually in terms of the development of the corporate bank, but also the way we are applying SVA. That all brings me to the clear conviction that the EUR 33 billion is out of question. We will achieve that. One last thing to the guidance, that does not include what a lot of analysts actually expect that there may be a rate hike. To be honest, that's not something which we can take in our base case, if this is coming, obviously it's additional income. That is upside. The real drivers and also what I can see in April make me very confident.
I hope I also gave you already a little bit of guidance when it comes to the RWA increase in Q1. Please also don't forget that we had a very unusual low ending in Q4 of 2025. We also need to see actually the increase when we compare it to the end of the quarter 2025. Again, the increase in the lending business is clearly based on SVA positive business and that will pay out long term, obviously. Last but not least, on the capital, and I'm sure Raja will add to this. Look, please also look back what we have done in the past. We are now finalizing our first share buyback. I think we are approximately at 60% completion.
We have always shown in the past that we are looking at our performance in Q1 and in the first half year. That's exactly what we are doing right now. We are accruing to 60%. I'm not accruing to 60% because I don't wanna pay that out. There is a clear intention. Look at our performance right now as of today, I think, we have all the best intention to go back to the market.
Thanks, Christian. Hey, Tarik. I just will add a couple things on RWA. Christian already mentioned. Look, first of all, I would come in from a CET1 ratio perspective. A drop of the CET1 was always planned and expected. You know, we're obviously putting the FX effects on the side of the capital. Every year's first quarter we have some impact on the equity compensation. In terms of RWA development, the market risk and the CVaR RWA obviously rebounded as expected from the very low levels at year-end as we kind of clearly move towards our operating level. This was also partially driven by high client activity and market volatility, which we saw in March. Depending on how this plays out, clearly has a bearing on forward-looking market risk.
On the credit risk side Christian talked about, we saw great opportunities to deploy this on lending, both corporate bank and IB. To, you know, we saw that opportunity, and we thought it was SVA accretive, and we decided that we wanted to do that. Going forward, there are a few things that you should expect. One is we are accelerating our work around the portfolios, both in the private bank on mortgages, which are sub-hurdle, and we are exiting them at, in quite a fast pace. Depending on how that goes, that gives us a lever. In trade finance and lending, we also have an SVA negative book, which we are also executing on.
Don't forget, we also have some plans regarding SRTs later on in the year that creates the capacity to further increase our lending activity without really sacrificing our CET1 level. All in all, and from my perspective, everything in line with what we planned, and frankly speaking, honestly pleased that the corporate lending growth, corporate bank lending growth that we were actually looking and aspiring for is begun to happen. On the fixed side, we are actually able to lend and didn't even see the margin compression that we were assuming would happen, at least as of now. All in all, very productive deployment of capital, obviously in the fixed side masked a lot by the FX.
Clearly on the Corporate Bank, as Christian said, as I look at my third and fourth quarter, I will not only have sequential growth on the back of lending and deposits, but I will also have year-on-year growth. That at least that will put to rest that discussion. For the most part, the FX headwinds will essentially dissipate in the second half at the same time, I think, which was your other question.
Yeah. Very helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much. Just on costs, I think you alluded already in your remarks, but can you talk a bit about the cost trajectory in the course of the year, as you talked about a step-up in Q2 versus Q1? Could that mean you overshoot your pro rata guidance for this year? How do you balance with investments given the uncertain environment? Just to confirm, at the end of the day, I guess the target is still for the cost-income ratio to come in lower than in 2025, at around, below 65%. Just following up on capital.
I guess you alluded in your annual report about RWA growth of, which would imply like 6%-10% for the year, running a bit higher in Q1. What should we sort of like think about? I mean, I know there's lots of moving parts, including market risk, but where should we think about RWA growth for the year? That leads to the question about the share buyback. You said in due course. Is due course already Q2 results? Would you be happy to announce a buyback if you are sort of like at the lower end of your 13.5%-14% guidance? I know you already accrue for the 60%, but how does this all square with the RWA growth you're seeing?
Thank you very much.
Sure. Let me just start in order. Look, on the cost guidance, I want to just reiterate that we remain fully sure about the guidance that we had set out. We will not overshoot our target. In fact, based on what I'm seeing in the first quarter, we may undershoot our targets, which might actually be a good problem to have. What we're seeing is that we are able to accomplish a lot of the investments and the development work at actually a lower cost than what we had actually envisioned when we actually set the investment plan together. From that perspective, we remain fully confident that not only will we meet or beat our expense target for the year, but also, we'll also deliver the cost income ratio improvement that we had promised.
In that sense, nothing has changed. We are deploying the resources. What we are doing is to make sure that our prioritization is right. What I mean by that is that I would like to prioritize those things that actually bring us in year benefits on the productivity side, but at the same time retain the benefits of the longer-term delivery. You also saw that the 80 bankers that we hired in wealth management that have not even produced at this point, the net new asset outcome, that is still to come. The result of the previous hiring is beginning to play out. I don't want to sacrifice my future growth. That said, it's pretty clear that what we thought would cost us to get some of the things done is actually coming out better.
Obviously this is only the first quarter, but I'm pretty bullish in terms of our ability to be a little bit more disciplined. Perhaps we were a little bit more conservative around our investment costing than where the real life is. That, that's that. In terms of the RWA growth, I think Christian talked about it. We firmly will remain within our target operating range, which we've laid out. In fact, I would like to be not towards the low end. I would like to be squarely in the middle. The reality is that the 60% that we are accruing is with an eye towards doing a second half buyback, assuming all the normal cadence is met. We would like to see the results of the first and the second quarter.
Obviously, we as a bank go through a process of approval, and then at that point we communicate. That's been the cadence that this bank has set up, and we intend to stick to that one.
You say on costs you're not overshooting the target. Are we talking absolute costs or are we talking cost income ratio?
I think we have given a cost guidance for this year of being slightly above 21.3, a little bit over EUR 21 billion. I would believe that we have very strong conviction that not only are we not gonna overshoot that I may actually undershoot it especially even in a normalized environment, and therefore also reiterating our cost income ratio improvement year-over-year.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just had a question on the following the CRE measure and the overlay. You know, you've reiterated your CLP guidance for this year. I guess, you know, how, you know, could you give some color on the overlay that you've taken and then the trajectory on CRE? I guess what you've taken suggests somewhat of a more benign situation for the next three quarters. Thanks.
Absolutely. Thanks, thanks, Joseph. I think, look, on the overlay, it was a judgment call from a management perspective. Looking at the macro environment around the Middle East conflict and the uncertainty around the eventual resolution, we felt it was prudent to at least look at embed some forward-looking indicators that potentially may not be getting captured in the indicators at the end of the quarter. It was really around our view that perhaps it's better to be prudent than to be late. If we don't need it, and the same thing happened last year, we had a overlay for tariffs which ended up being not needed. In this case, from my perspective, in the base case scenario, this is potentially a reversal at some point if things get better from here.
It was really that discussion in our heads to say whether we wanted to be a little bit prudent here or conservative here or not. In terms of commercial real estate, the great part here is, and I think on page 27 of our deck, you can see the evolution of our high- risk stress portfolio. What we're seeing in commercial real estate, and that's why I have conviction around the long-term trajectory of our CLP, is that the increases or decreases that we're seeing in this is on existing defaulted positions. The new inventory or the new defaults pipeline has pretty much stopped at this point. That gives me the confidence that we always assume there will be some level of CRE-related impact in 2026. It just happens to be that it came in first quarter of 2026.
When I look at what our remaining subset of open exposures are for CRE, it gives me the confidence along with what I see is Absolute shrinkage of the underlying stress portfolio. Between the two, actual indicators of our CLP this quarter were actually positive in all businesses, Investment Bank, Corporate Bank and Private Bank. In the stage one and stage two, we actually saw a really good outcome. It's just that we made a decision as a bank that we would like to be a little bit conservative on the forward-looking Middle East related situation, and we took a correction or a top-up of a provision on an existing defaulted loan.
Let me just add, because obviously, I have a little bit of history in risk management. Look, everything Raja said, I subscribe and I simply feel that obviously, given the uncertainty from the Middle East, it is the right thing to do, but we don't expect to use it. Moreover, what is for me most important is next to all the portfolio reviews we have done over the last three months, we don't see any negative trends from a rating migration in any of those portfolios. That is important. I think we are very close to that, and that gives me actually the confidence about the resiliency of the portfolio. We have been here conservative, and therefore, I really do believe that this is a very good signal.
Secondly, also, let me be clear and I hope I was clear at the Morgan Stanley conference. We again have no negative experience on the private credit portfolio in Q1, and the overlay has nothing to do with that. Actually, for us, this is not a story. Raja made it very clear this morning. I made it clear in March. We see absolutely behaving portfolios are happy with the diversification and therefore, this has been taken for real conservative measures. On the rating migration, the underlying performance of the portfolio, we don't see any negative deterioration.
Got it. Thank you.
The next question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have two, please. The first one would be on your use of AI. I think you mentioned the use of AI to re-engineer core processes, and you used the example of corporate credit risk. Do you have any other example to illustrate how you're actually deploying AI within the bank, and maybe what kind of revenue opportunities or operating efficiency you can associate with these deployments? Maybe, are you seeing a net benefit from AI implementation once your account for cost of AI? The second question would be on the private bank. You disclosed EUR 30 billion of additional client assets, and maybe could you discuss a bit how this will help PB going forward?
How does it fit into the business, and what kind of pace you're expecting on the client assets going forward? Thank you.
Let me start. Raja will add. Look, as I said in the answer to the first question, the private bank story makes me really happy because, you know, since over six months actually, Claudio has a very, very clear strategy that investment products is so to say the main target for the private bank. What we can see is actually that the whole steering of our franchise, but in particular the steering of our private bank divisions is taking the momentum. Therefore, the net asset under management flows in the first quarter was mostly in investment products, approximately EUR 10.5 billion, predominantly in the discretionary portfolio management.
That's in particular in the private, upper private banking and wealth management, and actually shows that, so to say, the steering of Claudio is taking more and more momentum and speed. Now with the investments we are doing, in particular in the wealth management, Raja just referred to that, and with people actually getting their feet under the table and doing and actively pursuing the client activities, this will further grow. Secondly, there is the bridge already to AI and to technology. Don't underestimate actually the future potential and also the potential and actually the capacity which we already saw in Q1 in the personal bank.
You talk about lower individual amounts, actually the need for our clients in the personal bank to think about their own private pension investment is higher than ever before. The urgency, the attention of these clients actually asking for that, looking for advice is as high as I have never seen it before, since I've been with Deutsche Bank. This is exactly what we are now looking for. This is where we are, for instance, applying technology, because obviously for 19 million personal banking clients, you can't do a one-to-one advisory in a physical way. It's impossible. Therefore, actually, Claudio is very much investing into the technology to get the tailored advice to these clients, we can see that this business is taking off.
A good part of the growth in the personal banking is on the back of the investment business, obviously also in taking in deposits, but that's actually the strategy, and that is completely supported by AI. Therefore AI, as I think explained it in the previous calls, is not only obviously something where we will improve on efficiencies, but it's in particular actually that we will improve the client experience. That is also what Claudio discussed on the 17th of November. With the investments we are doing, it's far easier obviously to capture the potential on the revenue side in the broad-based retail business. Hence, I expect actually that the momentum we have seen in Q1 will actually continue in the following quarters. Raja, you wanna add?
Sure, sure. Thanks, Christian. Let me just take this point about the EUR 30 billion client assets, which was obviously a new target that we had set at Investor Day from taking them from EUR 800 to EUR 1 trillion. Look, this is something that I am super passionate about personally. I think the strategy is pretty clear for us. We wanna add client relationships, whether they come from custody, whether they come from DPM or they come from advice. We wanna grow our net new assets, which we've shown, and then we wanna migrate to fee-based, which is really the holy grail. The channels are different. We obviously are new recruiting we talked about it. The existing advisors are becoming more productive.
The third thing, which we actually have not even harnessed yet, to be totally honest with you, is the cross-firm references and the cross-firm collaboration. I would just want to give you one example of the success of this, that in this particular quarter, we brought EUR 10 billion of in-investment products in the wealth management space, in the private bank space. In 2025, we brought a little bit over EUR 10 billion in the entire year. What we did in one quarter, and I know it's only one quarter, was almost the same as we were able to do in the entire 2025. When I look at that momentum, and even if I was to sustain 50% of that momentum, it makes me really, really happy that the mix shift and the velocity of attracting new net, new assets is actually really high.
That actually goes to the conviction that Christian had about his EUR 33 billion for 2026. For me, the real benefit is if we can show 5%, 6%, 7% net new asset growth, what is the upside to the $1 trillion or EUR 1 trillion client asset target that we had set up and for the Investor Day?
Thank you.
Then the next question comes from Giulia Aurora Miotto from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. I just want to go back quickly on the overlay, the EUR 90 million. Was this taken by changing the macro assumptions or with them some specific portfolios in mind? Do you have some sensitivities on the oil price specifically? Because I appreciate that if the situation gets resolved quickly, this will be reversed, but if the situation continues, you might have to take more. It would be good to have a sense there. A separate question, different on financing revenues. I would have thought, this could be perhaps a bit weaker given what's happening with, for example, private credit.
Just thinking that if the clients that you support on the financing side are a bit more challenged, maybe that part of the revenue is more challenged. It doesn't look like it. In fact, you call it out saying that there was good growth and there is momentum in the business. Can you give us an outlook on how you see financing evolving from here also in light of, I would guess, more competition from U.S. banks? Thanks.
Thanks, Giulia. Raja, I'll take the questions. Look, on the overlay, it's all macroeconomic, but I would describe it in maybe two parts. Maybe two-third of it is essentially changing the our inputs or the macroeconomic indicators to see what they would look like if we had to do kinda like catch up to what the environment looks like. One-third of it is to say, "Okay, if there was a little bit of a energy shock, what type of clients could potentially be impacted by that?" You know, in a sense, if the environment improves, both those pieces essentially get taken off the table, not just one of them. It's not like one will stick and the other one will not.
In terms of the sensitivity, we looked at a couple of different scenarios. This is certainly not the most optimistic scenario when we come to the 90. It was somewhat of a little bit of a protracted energy shock, which makes me comfortable that, you know, unless the environment is completely off kilter, that we have what we need, and in fact, we may have more than what we need. I really felt it was important for us to be a little bit forward-looking and proactive and not just looking at backward-looking indicators when we're doing our allowance. That's a little bit on the overlay. In terms of your financing review question-
Sorry, can I just follow up on what oil price do you assume?
I'm sorry, Giulia, can you hear that?
The oil price. I think to be honest, Giulia, I think our overall assumption for the full year is now that we have an average price for the full year of approximately $95. I think it was in 2025, I think the average price was $65. We have almost priced in a 50% increase for the full year. That's the general base case expectation for the bank.
Thanks.
Giulia, on the financing revenue side, I think the growth is coming from our ability to deploy across the franchise, the complex, not just private credit. As you know, private credit only represents 5% of our overall loan portfolio and, you know, and a small portion of our FIC complex. I think part of the overperformance also comes from, if you remember at Investor Day, we assumed that there was gonna be continued spread compression in FIC financing. Thankfully, and at least as of this quarter, we did not see the same dynamic play out. Not only did we have healthy growth from a volume perspective, we were able to hold our own in terms of the spreads, and that led to our outperformance.
As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our private credit portfolio is pretty much stayed the same in terms of magnitude. The growth that you're seeing in FIC financing is not necessarily driven by private credit. That said, the kind of sponsors and the counterparties and the funds that we deal with are high quality people which have very little concerns raised about them. They continue to do operate their business, and we are actually in this environment, able to be even more selective of who we choose to do business with, what kind of structural protections we can enhance, and frankly speaking, what pricing we want. In that, all in all, I think the FIC financing story is a good one because no compromise on underwriting standards, no spread compression, and being able to choose where we play.
Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Kian Abouhossein from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is, just wanted to your view on the balance sheet growth we see in the U.S., your competitors in the U.S., in the IB side, in the financing side, in the corporate side, you're the house bank for Germany. How you see that impacting you, considering when I look at your balance sheet, it's pretty well-maintained. You have, clearly not as much growth, and I assume not as much growth as what we're expecting from some of the U.S. players. I just wanna see the competitive dynamic, how you see that playing out over the next 12, 18 months. And then secondly, I wanted to just hear a bit more around private credit.
You have the 24 point... EUR 25.9 billion, which you gave at the year-end. We had some disclosure from the U.S. peers, which look a bit higher relative to some of your peers, I would say. There might be definitional issues, so maybe you can highlight what maybe the definitional differences are against U.S. peers. I was wondering also, as we get disclosure from some peers on BDCs, if you could tell me how much that is. Lastly, how much is actually the undrawn commitments because I've seen the EUR 25.9 is drawn. Thank you.
Thank you, Kian. Let me start on the broader competitiveness question. Look, I think, Kian, if you look back for the last seven years, our strategy was actually to play there where we can add value and where we have our place. I really do believe, also again looking at Q1, but also looking actually at the pipeline and the mandates we are talking about, the financing requests we get and we are working on, that this was the right decision and therefore, I'm not that worried about the competitiveness going forward. Obviously, I can see that there may be an advantage on the U.S. side from a capital point of view, from a balance sheet expansion.
To be honest, if you look at our market standing and the way we are doing our business, it has a tremendous advantage that we are one of the very few European banks which can play globally. In this geopolitical situation where we are, the call for a European bank when it comes to strategic advice, when it comes to global risk management, when it comes to network banking in the corporate bank, our clients around the world would like to have a European bank at the table. This is exactly where we see our opportunity, and therefore, despite the competition of the American banks, and clearly great banks, we can see that this is our spot and that we can actually deliver there.
What is most important for us is that we are not compromising. I just wanna reiterate what Raja just said. We are very open with you. On November 17, that we said, one of the reasons why we only see limited growth, so to say, on the FIC side, is that we don't wanna compromise on margins, we won't do it. If we start seeing that, I don't think that we will play the game because we have a clear SVA-driven methodology. We haven't seen that in Q1; therefore, we could obviously also expand in that business.
I think the market position of Deutsche Bank with our capabilities and being a European player in an environment where people would like to have a European alternative at the table when it comes to risk management advisory is a fantastic opportunity. That is for me, the reason why we can grow. If we stay focused and not do everything what others are doing, and we keep investing into those businesses where we have a market-leading business, then I'm not worried about, at all about the competition. Last but not least, I think Raja can explain that better.
I'm glad you asked about the definition of private credit because, obviously we did some work on this one, and it shows you that I think we have a little bit of a broader definition, but Raja will talk about that.
Sure, Kian. Again, as you know, we were the first ones to kind of put out pretty detailed disclosure on private credits, both in terms of magnitude, the structural protections, how we do business, why we feel comfortable. I'm actually super happy that to be the trendsetter here because now we are seeing almost all of our U.S. peers follow our practice this quarter. It's become pretty abundantly clear to me that in the absence of a universal definition, our definition was slightly broader than at least most of our peers. What I mean by that is m-ost people seem to have focused on lender finance portfolio, not other things around it. If you were to take that definition for us, it would be around 75% of our disclosed number.
Look, I think in the end of the day, we have to risk manage things regardless of what you call them. Calling it one thing versus the other doesn't, from my perspective, doesn't change the focus and the attention we have. There's clearly definitional differences between banks. Presumably at some point there will be some alignment. In terms of your question on BDCs, we focus on large BDCs and therefore pretty comfortable, usually senior in their cap structure. At the end of the day, our exposure on BDCs is like approximately half a billion EUR. It's a very, very small exposure in that sense. The unfunded exposure again is on the BDCs is around two and a half billion EUR as well.
As I mentioned, it's essentially senior in the structure, and we don't really deal with small, BDCs. We are with the large cap ones. Hopefully that's helpful.
Very helpful. Thank you.
The next question comes from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Morning. Just two from me. First, on the EUR 100 million of investment spend in the first quarter, could you give an indication on how you'd expect the outstanding EUR 800 million to phase through the rest of this year? If we assume EUR 200 million-EUR 300 million per quarter going forward, can we also carry that run rate into next year, into 2027, and the EUR 1.5 billion is largely done by the end of the first half? Perhaps you could just remind me on whether all of the EUR 900 million this year and indeed all of the EUR 1.5 billion is cash spend or some of that capitalized. I think you might have confirmed that at the IDD, I just couldn't find it. Another follow-up on costs.
Raja, you said that you thought you could undershoot on costs and also on the cost income ratio. Is it fair to say that because you're seeing that on both absolute cost and on cost income, that isn't a comment around FX tailwinds on costs, i.e., you're talking about organic cost improvement? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks. Look, we've been pretty transparent that FX was clearly a tailwind for us on expenses, but actually a much bigger headwind on revenue. All in all, FX actually played against us from a, from a EBIT perspective. Not, not counting on FX to basically be the main driver of the undershoot. I think the main driver of the undershoot is just my conviction around the fact that some of the things that we thought we would do are actually the pacing may be a little bit different, but also it actually is costing us less to some of, to some of the development work that we were doing.
Partly that is probably driven by AI and partly our ability to actually do a much better job of figuring out what we have in the bank that we can actually leverage rather than starting it from scratch. That's where my conviction comes from on the, on the cost side, and obviously that helps. In terms of other questions, clearly what is in our plan is to actually have a slow ramp-up because we wanna be disciplined, as for the reason that I mentioned to you. We do see some opportunities in the second quarter to accelerate some of the productivity-related benefits that especially comes from the Private Bank that we want to have an in-year benefit.
That means that we would potentially need to take some restructuring and severance charges in the second quarter, along with the other development, tech development work. That will basically mean that we will have a second quarter run rate that is in excess of the first quarter. My intention is to actually manage it pretty tightly and prudently that we don't see spikes up or down through the rest of the year. As Christian said, we have to look at the environment, but I also have to look at where I have the highest conviction of the spend, and that will allow me to pace it. Remember, our investment plan was a three-year investment plan, which is gradually going down over the years.
The EUR 900 million number that you talk about is actually a P&L number because obviously we also have the tech development as part of that. All in all, I think the fact that we have been able to start at a measured pace and still be able to do what we wanted to do. We already hired 80 bankers in wealth management, and they're already productive. The fact that I think it's coming out that we can actually do some of the things much more economically than what we had assumed when we put the plan together. It gives me a little bit more surety around being able to manage the EUR 21 billion or EUR 21-plus number for the year, no matter where FX is.
Cool. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I have two questions on numbers, please. The first one on your provisions for credit losses, the EUR 519 million in the first quarter. Can you tell us how much of that was actually Stage 3 related? I also wanted to talk about the revenue in the Private Bank that is not NII. You mentioned in the other income part some valuation effects on guaranteed products. Could you add a little bit more color on what that relates to, what the size of that commitment is, that would be very helpful. Also in the Private Bank, on the same vein, I noticed that your AUM are growing very nicely, +10% year-on-year, but your net commission income is only +2%.
Is there anything in the mix or anything else that holds back the growth of net commission income, please? Thank you.
Just to give you some clarity, as Christian mentioned, the underlying portfolio migrations in stage one and two are developing super nicely for us, which is really promising. Almost all of the re-provision this quarter in the EUR 500 is related to stage three, which is what I mentioned. In essence, what we're seeing is a true-up of reserves on existing defaulted positions rather than new things migrating towards that. And obviously we have then the overlay of the EUR 90 million or so that we have parked in stage one and two because that's not name specific. For the most part, the provision number is driven by stage three.
In terms of private bank AUM, look, it is always gonna be a lag in terms of when you bring the clients, when you onboard them, and when you start to move them into discretionary portfolios or fee-based businesses. I would think that that's the hypothesis that I was talking about, that if we can increase our capacity of taking more and more assets. Eventually, they move to advice, and their advice moves to fee-based, and that's what gives me a lot of confidence. In terms of the, I think the valuation piece that you mentioned, that wasn't really a big driver. I believe it was in asset management and not wealth management.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Flora Bocahut from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. I'd like to come back actually on two elements that have been discussed before, the RWA and then the investments that you are doing this year. On the RWA, maybe let me ask you the question a bit differently. At the Capital Market Day in November, I think you guided for RWAs in 2028 to be EUR 385 billion. That was post FRTB, which looks like it will be delayed by another three years. Let's call it EUR 378 billion ex-FRTB. In other words, for you to meet that target, you need RWA growth over the next three years, pretty much, to be the same as what you just did in one single quarter here in Q1. Can you help us understand why you think this will be achievable?
On the investments, can you talk again, you know, on what exactly you are planning to do with the EUR 900 million investments? I understand you've hired, you know, bankers in wealth. I understand the point you just made that maybe you can do those investments in a more economic way, but can you remind us exactly what you have in mind there and how you think this is gonna help your revenue base? Thank you.
Thank you. All fair questions. On the RWA, I would mention that I think it's hard to extrapolate one quarter to obviously 12, 'cause obviously we have dynamics between market risk, credit risk. We talk about the growth and also something on op risk, which obviously is not something that happens every quarter. It's done, you know, as part of a refinement of the methodology. I have to give you two main things that we also discussed at the Investor Day. One was our increase of our SRTs from, by approximately 20%, which we have just begun to execute, and it's a mostly that program is gonna be executed over 2026 and 2027. Number 1.
Number 2, if you remember, we were only 40% in SVA accretive businesses at the end of 2025, and our goal is to get to 70%. A lot of that is gonna come from us doing better on pricing, being more efficient, more productive. We also have portfolios that are consuming RWAs without bringing us the returns that we want. The two best examples of that is the mortgage business inside private bank, where we're continuing to de-risk and reallocate resources. The second one being trade finance and lending, where we also are beginning to exit. Obviously, not all those actions are either visible or done at the end of this quarter.
I would say it's a function of us being prudently managing out unproductive RWA and redeploying it to productive RWA. It's the use of good tools like SRTs. There's honestly, the third thing which makes me really comfortable is our focus on asset-light businesses. If we do this thing right, we don't need the RWA growth to deliver EUR 37 billion or EUR 38 billion that we promised on Investor Day. Our private bank and our asset management businesses, which consume very little RWA, should essentially fill the hole for the lack of using our consumption of RWA. We're just starting our journey on this mix shift. It's already visible.
I feel confident that on the RWA side, if we are able to do what we want to do on our wealth management and asset management, it's not gonna be an issue.
A bit more transparency on the EUR 900 million in investments. Look, we talked about the hiring in wealth management. There will be some selective hiring in IBCM, because we want to close the gaps we have in order to provide the coverage which we need. To be honest, also there, we are making good progress. I talked about that. The real investments will be obviously focusing on technology in the private bank, but also in some of our back offices. Private bank, I just said in one of my answers when we are coming to the investment process, that we need a front to back process. This is exactly what we are applying and what we are building for our personal bank.
That will obviously cost certain investments, but we think that this will further not only increase the efficiency of the bank, but the client experience will go up. Secondly, we have been always very open about that what we have done over the last five years in terms of regulatory remediation, in particular in areas of AFC compliance, know your client. We are now at the place where I think we have done good progress on regulatory remediation. Now we are actually thinking about how can we further automate these processes, and that is in particular affecting AFC compliance, where we are putting a lot of technology at work.
These are the main areas actually, and obviously bringing Run the Bank down in TDI, where we are putting technology to work, where we are putting the investments with all the efficiency gains which we then see over the next three years.
Thanks, Christian. One thought I want to kind of, it was in my prepared remarks, but it's very clear that the investments that we are making in AI, or we are beginning to make in AI, that have an impact on our cost structure above and beyond what we had envisioned at the Investor Day. If you remember the Investor Day, Christian had laid out some levers to our upside of the 13. It's become abundantly clear that once we deploy AI pervasively across the bank, that we can potentially do much better than what we had assumed for our 2028 plan, especially on the cost side.
That investment is also part of our EUR 900 million, but the benefits of that are actually much more exponential than both Christian Sewing and I had assumed in November, and that is giving me a lot of confidence that no matter the economic environment in 2028, the upside for our structural cost efficiencies actually is greater than what we had planned for or had assumed.
Okay. Thank you for the clarification.
The next question comes from Máté Némes from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, thank you for taking my questions. I have two of them, please. The first one would be the reduction of SVA sub-hurdle loans. I think both of you mentioned that this process is accelerating in a Personal Bank, you also clearly see opportunities in trade finance in a Corporate Bank. Could you give us just a sense of where exactly are you in that process? I understand it's still relatively early part, any numbers, any color you can give on that would be helpful. Also, just to put lending growth into context, can you give us a sense how new lending in underlying basis would look different if you excluded the sub-hurdle loan reduction? That's the first question.
The second question would be one on corporate and other. I think you were guiding to roughly EUR 200 million negative in pre-tax contribution per quarter the beginning of the year, Q1 clearly better. I think the guidance for the remaining quarters remains unchanged. To what extent do you see a possibility of continued outperformance on that side, and what could drive that? Thank you.
Sure. Thanks. Let me take the first question first on the SVA actions. Just to give you some perspective that we assume that our wealth, our mortgage lending would potentially be down by almost EUR 14 billion over the next three years. That's the size and scale of the actions that have to be taken. Obviously, that it's going to be over a period of next three years, but that just gives you a sense of the potential capital relief we get. At the same time, we believe that our wealth management, low capital-intensive Lombard lending will be going up by almost two times that, too. Basically, we'll be able to re-optimize our balance sheet at a much higher return with much less RWA consumption. That process is ongoing.
If for Private Bank, we actually had growth in net new lending, which is being masked by the EUR 4 billion or so of reduction that we just did in this particular quarter. Just to give you a sense of the pace of that, I think we can do a much better job and much faster job there, that obviously is a plan that we're looking at over the 2028. Same thing on the Trade Finance and lending. We have been able to take the low margin doc trade business and substitute with the actual Trade Finance High Yield business that is much more accretive to us.
Again, we're one quarter into our journey, but just to give you a sense of the magnitude, at least on the mortgage book, it's a pretty sizable reduction. In terms of CNO, look, it is always the one that is harder to predict. Most of the gain this quarter was from VNT in terms of pulling price to pulling to par. In some companies or some banks, this activity actually sits with the business and is reflected in the business results. In our case, it actually is in our CNO. At this point, where I sit today, without having a crystal ball, I would think the best estimate is still for us to get to EUR 200 for the rest of the year.
The next question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you. This is just circling back on a couple of topics. One is the origination and advisory pipeline, which you said is very robust, you know, for 2Q and 3Q, which echoes what we've heard from some of the U.S. firms. I wondered if you could give us a more European perspective on that. Do you see the same resilience of deal-making in Europe obviously being geographically and kind of economically closer to some of the risk issues in the Middle East conflict? Do you see the same resilience in Europe that U.S. firms have already commented on in the U.S. context on the primary IB side? My second question, another kind of growth area.
You're showing a bit of loan growth in Corporate Bank here, and you mentioned trade finance. I just wondered which segments, which industry sectors that's coming in and how you see that linking to some of the stimulus themes that we've been discussing for a few quarters now.
Thank you. Let me start. Look, on the origination and advisory pipeline, I think it's also a little bit of a specific Deutsche Bank story because you know that Fabrizio and Alison Harding-Jones actually changed the focus of the IBCM business over the last 12 months. We are now focusing far more on the corporate advisory business. You know that we are very strong in the financial sponsor business before that strategy has been changed. Here we started to really also specifically hire people. We strengthen our M&A sector; we strengthen our ECM sector.
Therefore, also what you see now in terms of pipeline is also the result of the continuous work which Alison and Fabrizio have done over the last 12 months to reposition Deutsche Bank in this. Hence it's not all about the market development, but it's also the way we have re-set up this business. I'm really glad about this progress I can see there. Secondly, from a market volume point of view, look, I think it also explains a little bit the different numbers between European and U.S. houses in Q1, but also in 2025 to be honest. We have seen a stronger IBCM business actually in the U.S.
Actually, one can see that finally we see movement also in Europe, and that combined with the investments we have done, with the focus we have given on this business, is actually showing now in strong pipelines, in mandates, and in particular in our home market. I'm really happy about that, what we can capture and what we have captured. Hence, I'm actually quite positive on the outlook of this business. I would even say it's more about the right repositioning of Deutsche Bank. With regard to your second question, and Raja may wanna add. Look, there is not the specific sector within the corporate bank. I think it's pretty broad-based.
In your side question or in a side remark, you also looked at the stimulus program. It was actually quite encouraging what we have seen in December, January, February. We could see that the demand for financing also in Germany is taking up speed, in particular in areas which are close to the infrastructure spending. In particular in areas, you see to the defense. I think in our prepared remark, we also made reference to one defense financing actually, which we have participated in and which we are doing. It's just one example out of a lot. If it starts. Actually, the way Germany works, if it starts with the larger projects, you then see the headline, so to say, on the DAX companies.
In particular in defense, there are so many sub-suppliers in the family-owned and mid-cap areas, and there we can see that business is starting to really increase. Therefore, obviously the stimulus has its impact. The conflict in Iran, obviously is not yet helpful. Therefore, I think it's right that for conservative reasons we have taken down overall our economic growth assumption for Germany in 2026. It will not impact actually our overall three-year plan, because I do believe that this growth is coming back, and I'm actually quite encouraged of what I've seen in December, January, and February, and that's seen in the portfolio.
Thanks, Christian. I just wanted to highlight on Corporate Bank. You know, obviously we're very happy with the progress of this segment. The reported loan growth actually of 6% year-over-year is actually close to 8% if you were to FX adjust it. Notwithstanding, we also optimized EUR 3 billion off the loan portfolio in lending. The actual underlying loan growth in this business has been EUR 12 billion. If you think that the dynamic of that, and what's encouraging is that this is just not pure lending that brings NII. It is the business that also attracts large amount of net fee and commission income. You will have seen, we also grew net fee and commission income 5% again, ex FX, year-over-year.
That is the level of activity that we're seeing. Going to the first question that we were asked on why we are so confident in corporate bank showing sequential and year-over-year growth starting the second half. It is these kind of volumes that we're seeing that kind of come through while we are actually reducing the non-value add portfolio.
That's really helpful. Thank you.
The next question comes from Matthew Clark from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Some more questions on risk-weighted assets, please. The 6%-10% risk-weighted asset growth for the full year is quite a broad range still. Can you give us any guidance within that of which end you expect to end up at? If not, could you maybe sort of outline what scenarios might lead you to be at one end rather than the other? Then a second question on the first quarter Investment Banking loan growth. Was this more drawdown of existing approvals or be it you said it was profitable, value accretive lending, or was it driven more by new approvals of new applications? Thank you.
Sure. Look, I think, the 6%-10% growth rate obviously was done in the context of our starting point, which Christian talked about, was quite low to begin with at the end of 2025. Look, a couple of things that could impact this. One is obviously the absolute demand and what we see we can use our balance sheet for that's very accretive and SVA positive. Putting the demand piece aside, the market risk environment obviously will have an impact on are operating in volatile markets where the CVA is and is contributing it. Credit risk is a little bit harder to predict even in the short term because entering into a calmer period of economic development may also have some bearing on how the RWA operates.
At this point, you know, I think this is still a pretty good range. I think if we are in an environment where the economic activity is robust and risk is manageable; you could probably see on the higher end of the range. If we don't see demand and we don't see the spreads developing the way we would like to, then it might be on the lower end of the range. It's, it's kind of hard to pin down just in April where this will go given the uncertainty of the environment. We have pretty good handle of our pipeline. In terms of what's going to consume RWA, clearly, we are seeing we have a few dynamics going on. We are redeploying our RWAs in wealth management from Mortgages to wealth management. In Corporate Bank, again, we are deprioritizing certain portfolios.
On the fixed income side, we are clearly seeing great activity, both on the existing draws, but also on new growth. All in all, if the first quarter is to be an indicator, we think that the activity will be robust and we're gonna continue to bring in more clients and continue to optimize the balance sheet by taking out things that quicker, hopefully, to make room for that.
Can I just follow up quickly? The subtext of that is that for you, the best outcome is that it is at the higher end of that range, commensurate with higher demand and stronger economic activity. you're almost hoping that it's at the top end of that of that range.
No, we obviously always wanna operate in the operating range that we've laid out, which is 13 to. We want to operate comfortably within that operating range, even though, you know, there's two segments for that. I do think for me, the most important part is what type of activity are we using the RWA for. If it's accretive, it's SVA accretive, and it's shifting the franchise mix to the one that we want, I would gladly take it. If we don't, then we don't have a compulsion to, because frankly speaking, if my asset gathering businesses continue to outperform, then there's even a lesser point is need to actually load up things on your balance sheet.
I just think that at this point in April, we are comfortably within the range that we communicated, and the market factors will determine a little bit about where we end up.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from Andrew Coombs from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi there. If I could possibly come back to capital, I guess three parts to the question. The first is Slide 26. If I look at the average 1-day VaR, it's lower Q on Q. The 10-day VaR is flat on average Q on Q, there was a spike at quarter end. Just trying to work out to what extent that informed the EUR 2 billion increase in the market risk RWAs, and whether you'd expect that to moderate next quarter. Second question, just on the 60% payout, have you provided a split of your thought process between dividend and buyback on that 60%? I guess my third question would be, you previously alluded to potentially topping up the buybacks if you were to go above a 14% CET1 ratio.
Looking at this quarter, I mean, you're running well above your 2% loan CAGR guidance just on this quarter alone. Is it a case of you'd rather deploy it into more loan growth rather than topping up the buybacks? Thank you.
Thanks, Andrew. I think we always see it's not unusual for to see a quarter end spike in VaR given the way we hedge our exposure. You could expect that to be back in the range. We actually already have seen that. If you look at the history, it's not that unusual. In terms of your question on the mix between the 60% mix, I think we had guided into the at the investor day that we'll continue to increase our dividend consistently, but probably not at the same magnitude that we had been doing previously, which was around 50%, I think, every year.
We have not provided that split yet, but you can assume that it's gonna be more heavily weighted towards buybacks versus dividend increase. When we communicate the timeline, at the same time, we will obviously provide more information about the mix as well. In terms of your RWA question, look, I think it's clear for us that we want to do both. We wanna walk and chew gum at the same time. We wanna do loan growth, and we also wanna make sure that the shareholders get their capital back at the pace that they expect.
In the discussion that we had, and depending on how the environment evolves, for this year and next year, that will then determine our ability to be sustainably above 14% and then have the conversation about the excess buybacks.
The next question comes from Tom Hallett from KBW. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Got a couple. I'm just wondering if there's any prospect of your 2% domestic buffer within your SREP guidance reducing anytime soon, 'cause there was some news yesterday and I thought it might have some read across to you guys. Secondly, on the corporate and private bank, could you give us a sense of the trajectory of the next two quarters, on NII? Because it felt like there was quite slow progress there given the hedge benefits that should be coming through. Thank you.
Let me start with the with the trajectory on the corporate bank and the private bank. It is positive as we, as we continue to lay off and replace the existing hedges, and we continue to grow our underlying deposit and loan portfolio. You know, the trajectory is positive. As I mentioned, we still believe that our EUR 14 billion overall NII guidance is fairly within reach. Depending on what happens with the interest rate hikes in Europe, it also has some positive impact on 2026. Obviously, a lot more on a long-term basis, but we do have some short-term exposure there as well. That, that is all promising.
Yes, the expectation is that both private bank and corporate bank will continue to show improvement on their NII trajectory, and we feel very comfortable about our overall EUR 14 billion.
Okay.
And I just wanted to make-
Sorry.
Sorry, go ahead.
No, I was just saying, so you're expecting a slow tick up in NII over the next couple quarters. I was just gonna come back to the domestic buffer on your SREP guidance.
Yeah. Yeah. Let me just, before I address the SREP guidance, I just wanna make sure that the share, 'cause that question has come up a couple of times. Our second buyback for the year is not dependent on us being above 14% because we have already adjusted for that 60% in our ratios. The 14% comment was solely in relation to excess share buybacks. I just wanna make sure that everybody has understood that that comment was not in reference to 14%. In terms of SREP, look, I would love to say that this is in the bag. There's certainly upside on this deal.
There's no downside for us because we actually are above where we should be. If the regulatory authorities actually go by the math, we could probably see a benefit. Obviously, that has not been communicated to us. The national authorities still have to decide based on the back of the ECB news. The good part is, there's nothing but upside based on the news that we saw yesterday.
Sorry. Yeah. Thank you.
There are no more questions at this time, so I would like to turn the conference back over to Ioana Patriniche for any closing remarks.
Thank you for joining us and for your questions. For any follow-ups, please come through to the Investor Relations team, and we look forward to speaking to you on our second quarter call.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you for joining and thank you for choosing Chorus Call. Goodbye.