Welcome, thank you for joining the DHL Group conference call. Please note that the call will be recorded. You can find the privacy notice on dhl.com. Throughout today's presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. Instructions will also follow at the time of the Q&A. I would now like to turn the conference over to Martin Ziegenbalg, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Warm welcome from my side to our Q1 2026 call. As it says on the title, I've got with me our Group CEO Tobias and the Group CFO Melanie. You know the procedure. Let's start right away with your part, Tobias.
Good morning. I'm pleased to inform you about a good quarter. We started with good momentum in the year of 2026, building already on the trends of Q4 of 2025. Group revenue increased 2% on an organic basis, and this is led by DHL Supply Chain, especially very good momentum in the Americas and our e-commerce division. Group EBIT is up a good 8% year-on-year. Here, Express made a particularly important contribution. It's the seventh consecutive quarter of EBIT growth in our Express division. We are on a very good momentum as it relates to the strategy and what we wanted to achieve in DHL Express.
You also see good cash flow in the quarter, so good earnings quality, with free cash flow of EUR 1.2 billion, which for Q1 is a very good figure for us also, if you compare this historically. This has been a quarter that has been, again, quite volatile. Relates to the external conditions that we had to deal with. We obviously had the conflict in the Middle East that impacted our operations there. This is a relatively small part of overall group revenue, but there are obviously broader implications, especially as it relates to the trade lane from Asia to Europe. I think we have been able to deal with that very well.
It was a quarter with excellent quality and excellent customer feedback. I'm very proud how our colleagues in the Middle East have handled the situation. More broadly, how our operating divisions have reacted to the changing environment and continue to execute on the measures that we've talked about earlier. The ability to shift, especially in our asset-intensive Express network, to continue to work on cost and structural improvements, as well as the established yield mechanisms. We're also making good progress as it relates to the execution of our strategy despite a demanding day to day. We are continuing to execute on Fit for Growth measures, the implementation of AI being part of that. The legal setup of the group, which will be voted on during the AGM, at least this part measure that relates to P&P.
We have continued to invest, especially in our Supply Chain division. This was a very good quarter in terms of customers signing. As a result of that, we continue to invest to build the infrastructure that is needed to support those operations. Overall, despite a difficult backdrop of external factors, I think a really good quarter and a good start into the year. On page three, some more details on how the situation in the Middle East impacted us. Obviously, in the short term, with such a tragic military conflict, our concern is about the safety of our employees, but then, to continue operation for our customers. We obviously had a significant volume shortfall, activity shortfall in the initial two weeks of the conflict. Logical outcome of that military activity and the closure of airspace and sea routes.
After that period, we saw volume recovering. A very good reaction, which I'll talk about in a second, in terms of how we handled the situation operationally. That also brought some opportunities. Now in this phase, in transitioning to the long term, I think a worry across the industry and more broadly regarding the macroeconomic impact that the situation has, especially as it relates to the price of energy. For us, that being especially the price of kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel. Page four gives you a little bit of details and the sense of how we operationally reacted to the situation on the air side, that being Express and Global Forwarding Air Freight.
In Express, our regional hub is in Bahrain, which was obviously significantly impacted by the military activities with airspace being closed for several weeks. We shifted operations using Riyadh and Muscat as primary airports of entry for our dedicated fleet, which we're able to evacuate some aircraft out of Bahrain after some days into the conflict, and those then being productively deployed into Riyadh and Muscat. The network, road network that we have in the region was extremely helpful in this situation to connect via road Riyadh and Muscat to those areas, the U.A.E., Qatar, Bahrain, but also Kuwait where airspace was closed. That enabled us to provide good service to our customers.
Given that not all competitors were able to provide such a setup, it was also visible that our customers were very pleased. On the ocean side, similar setup with ports in Oman and the Red Sea ports of Saudi Arabia being used for ports of entry into the regions. We secured additional trucking capacity very early in the conflict to distribute containerized cargo across the region. Obviously, with the Straits of Hormuz still being closed, on the ocean side, there's continued disruption and still cargo that has not reached the region. On the air side, the capacity shortfall of the Middle Eastern carriers is something that we continue to see and that continues to impact the trade flows from Asia to Europe.
Obviously the impact of the fuel price both in its volatility as well as its level is something that concerns our customers. You know that we have established mechanisms to pass higher cost onto customers. Some of those mechanisms have a certain latency. Again, that's something that we're used to. Overall, the Middle Eastern situation not having a significant impact on our Q1 earnings. Page five shows a little bit more about the volume and revenue development that we have seen for the group and DHL Express specifically. The group on the left side achieved a 2% organic growth in the first quarter. We obviously continue to face headwinds, especially when it comes to FX. That's gonna cycle out as we go along from Q2 onwards.
We will have less of FX headwinds at least, with current exchange rates relative to last year. Also on the volume side, we have easier comparables. If you look to the first quarter, we were about 4.5% organically above the first quarter of 2024. Would we continue with that momentum, you would see a significant change in the year-on-year comparisons with Q2. On the Express side, we're very pleased that our measures as it relates to the focus on smart industrial growth are playing out as we plan. We see now significant growth in the weight per day of a time-definite international in the rest of the world, that excluding those destination U.S. lanes.
Also, as it relates to destination U.S., we see a significant improvement as we would expect with now the effects of the U.S. tariff changes annualizing. What has helped us to a great extent also to stay cost competitive and to grow in areas that are profitable for us is our modern fleet. On page six, you see the transition that we went through with significant investments that we made as a group over the last six years, now being a very large 777 operator and having the most modern and fuel-efficient fleet in our industry. With current jet fuel prices, this is obviously extremely helpful to act profitably and to be cost competitive for our customers.
This is the perfect fleet to support our commercial strategy of smart industrial growth, and explains why we have this continued margin expansion in DHL Express. It is a contributing factor to the success that we have seen in Q1 and the ongoing positive momentum this brings. Page seven, some highlights in terms of continued focus on executing our strategy. Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, we remain focused on regions that benefit from the geopolitical situation we are in, our GT20 countries. Those countries with geo tailwind, we continue to work intensively to improve our market position in those countries. Close capability gaps, especially as it relates to the focus sectors that we have globally, and where we want to make sure that we're particularly successful in those geographies.
Also by working even better together across the divisions and thereby delivering end-to-end solutions to our customers. On the customer side, this was an extremely successful quarter, with very good feedback and very good quality, objective quality KPIs across all divisions. That supports obviously this strategy. Sector focus, last time we talked about life science and healthcare. Today, a snapshot on data center logistics. This is a value chain that is still unfolding. We see particularly high demand in North America, to stage inbound to manufacturing, you could say, inbound to construction might be a better word, supplies there. To bring the components of data centers close to the location of usage, store them locally to have them just in time available when the construction of the data center progresses.
That's a significant activity that we are engaged in next to the international transportation of such goods that not only being server racks and servers themselves, but a lot of equipment around it, especially electricity related. These are significant components and significant tonnage that is typically transported by air, where the collaboration of DHL Global Forwarding and DHL Supply Chain is very helpful for our customers and highly appreciated. As it relates to the guidance for the rest of the year, we uphold what we communicated earlier, that we want to increase EBIT, group EBIT above the 2025 level, so above EUR 6.2 billion. The split on DHL, P&P and group function remains unchanged. Does the outlook on free cash flow on CapEx on the tax rate.
Term outlook, we remain conservative in light of the volatility around us and the potential adverse effects of higher energy prices on global GDP growth, while we obviously recognize that we had a very good start into the year and have good momentum. With that, over to Melanie for some more details on the divisional development.
Yeah. Thank you very much, Tobias, and welcome to all of you out there also from my side. Let me indeed briefly provide some more relevant details on our Q1 numbers, starting with the divisional overview on page nine. Tobias talked about the nice EBIT growth we saw at Group level in Q1 that was mainly driven by another strong quarter from DHL Express. We really see how the team's actions on Fit for Growth have structurally brought down the express cost base, resulting in the seventh consecutive quarter of underlying year-over-year profit growth in a slightly improving but not yet growing market environment. Global Forwarding performance compares well with its closer peer group. When we look at the numbers, we of course see a lot of market trends at work here.
In the shorter term, the Middle East driven changes have been more supportive for air freight versus a temporary burden on ocean freight gross profit. I will come back later to the more structural growth paths laid out by Oscar for the division. DHL Supply Chain has seen another strong quarter with growth in revenue, EBIT and new business wins, and that's despite the expected dollar-driven currency headwinds. This really shows how the structural trends like e-commerce, life science, healthcare, data center infrastructure, which Tobias just talked about, how those trends underpin supply chain growth and how our team is at the forefront of robotics, automation and use of data to drive growth for our customers at strong and rising profitability. Reported revenue growth at DHL eCommerce will be skewed by our U.K. deal with Evri until the fourth quarter.
What is important for us here is that we continue to drive organic growth at 5% in Q1. In this growth phase, EBIT performance was roughly stable in Q1 and the business continues to be free cash flow positive, so it keeps generating the cash needed for its growth investments. Last but not least, we have seen another strong performance from P&P. Strong in the sense that given the lack of price increases on regulated letters, EBIT is holding up well. Here this shows the benefits of our structural Fit for Growth measures on core network and indirect costs, as well as good parcel growth with a 6% increase in volume and 8% on revenue. To sum it up, overall, as Tobias already said, we are very pleased to start the year with this Q1 performance.
Let me come back to Express with some more important observations on page 10. We are showing you a look back at the development since 2019. As you know, we have driven a significant revenue and EBIT increase even though TDI shipments were down over the period. The question is: how did we do this? On the revenue side, the basis has been a sustained increase in weight per shipment, as you can see on that slide here, as well as our consistent yield management. The margin increase reflects the earlier mentioned cost measures as well as efficient network flex. Let me be very clear here. This higher profitability, despite lower shipments, is not a coincidence, but the result of how we steer sales, pricing, network cost in close alignment.
Better data and analytics certainly help in the steering. With a key KPI being weight and not shipments. This is why we have decided to reflect our internal steering discussions also in the external reporting with a change in our external main growth KPI from shipments to weight. Weight per day is the KPI that is more relevant for network profitability. Let me also quickly come back to DHL Forwarding. Page 11 shows you some extracts of Oscar's capital market briefing, which we held in London a few weeks ago. The full presentation is of course available on our IR website. I will not go back to all the detailed measures and levers that Oscar explained.
What I think is important for you to know as our shareholders is Oscar’s ambition to grow EBIT and cash flow of this division significantly, driven by a combination of above market volume and GP growth while bringing profitability further up to industry levels. The main drivers to do that are two larger turnaround topics that Oscar already tackles, road freight and U.S. air freight. More importantly, a structural profitable growth acceleration in the business. I think this is the most important observation for me here, optimizing our Global Forwarding performance is not about trading off between growth and profitability. It is about growing in the right verticals, regions, and products into lean and efficient structures so to drive top line growth at increasing margins. That is actually exactly what Oscar has successfully done in Supply Chain over the last years.
Now, on page 12, we have added for completeness a summary of our P&L and cash flow statement with the main observation here that there are actually no real unusual effects to point out. It is a very strong operating performance from top to bottom line, with our share buyback program again nicely supporting earnings per share growth on top of that. While I would ask you to not simply extrapolate the strong Q1 free cash flow number, I think this cash generation is just another testimony of the clean operating strengths that our Q1 numbers show. Our conclusion on page 13 is rather simple today in a not always so simple world. Q1 was a good start into the year that allows us to confirm with confidence our 2026 targets issued a few weeks ago.
In the current circumstances, cost, capacity and yield drivers remain in focus as they secure profitable growth independent of market tailwinds. Yes, we also see some traction on the growth side with a sequential improvement in express shipments and weight, the start of the gradual annualization of the 2025 tariffs and of course our strategic focus on the GDP plus growth opportunities as laid out in our Strategy 2030. With that, we look forward to your questions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. If you have a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. If you have dialed in, please press star 9 to raise your hand and star six to unmute. When you see a pop-up on your Zoom screen, please accept. Once your name has been announced, please unmute and ask your question. If you want to withdraw your question, please lower your hand using the raise hand function. Thank you. A moment for the first question, please. Our first question is from Andy Chu from Deutsche Bank. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Good morning, Tobias. Good morning, Melanie. Good morning, Martin. Two questions if I could, please. The first one is on the Fit for Growth program, which has been running for several months. Do you think there's scope here to increase that EUR 1 billion cost target? Then switching topics to share buybacks. I can understand why your targets remain conservative, but in terms of your balance sheet position, the strong free cash flow generation, you typically have a sort of multi-year share buyback program, but the current one runs out at the end of this year. When might we expect an update, please, on share buybacks? Thank you.
Good morning, Andy. Thank you for those two questions. On the Fit for Growth program, I mean, what we already said in March was that we are very pleased with the traction of the program. It was visible ramping up in our 2025 quarterly announcements, and we see the continued good progress in Q1. We are pushing and looking for further opportunities. As we already said before, we don't expect a lot of cost of change this year. This is why we're not flagging that separately. This is obviously, again, strongly supporting our Q1 results in Express, but also across the group.
On the share buyback, as we said in March, we still have well over EUR 1 billion left in the current share buy program. We didn't see as a necessity nor the timing to talk about any further upsides on that topic. Yeah, I think we are pleased with where we currently are.
Thank you.
Any plan on that?
Our next question. Thank you. Our next question is from Muneeba Kayani from Bank of America. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Good morning, I wanted to ask, you said that in Q1 you had limited impact from the Middle East. Can you talk to us about kind of how to think about that in Q2? What have you seen in April, and could there be a bit more of a benefit in Express and Forwarding in the second quarter from the air freight market and as your fuel surcharges would have caught up now in Express? That's my first question. Secondly, on slide five, thank you for showing the weight data now. We're seeing rest of the world weight picking up in Q1. What trade lanes are driving that pickup, if you could help us understand, and kind of has April seen that growth momentum continuing? Thank you.
Thank you, Muneeba, for these two questions. On the Middle East, I think the overall impact of our operations there needs to be seen in light of the weight that this has. The contribution of the GCC countries is a low single digit of our total revenue. It's not as decisive. Obviously there's a broader impact, as you also mentioned, on the air freight market, Asia, Europe. We continue to see elevated rates as the Middle Eastern capacity is not available. The hub carriers in the Middle East do not provide the same amount of capacity than we are used to. That definitely continues to have an impact also now.
We obviously remain cautious because the jet fuel situation raises prices, raises cost for our customers at some point that also has effects on the demand side. Certainly, the air freight market from Asia to Europe remains strong. Also on the express side, we explicitly highlighted that we see ourselves well-positioned with the fleet that we have. Relative to competition, I think we're in a good spot here. How the overall market will turn out, I think, we have to see. It remains, you know, very volatile. As we highlighted, we believe that we developed a good momentum in the first quarter, and that continues.
As it relates to the specific question on the weight development with Express and the rest of world, that is pretty broad. That excludes also exports from the United States, for instance. It really cuts across. I would not want to highlight anything particular. We really see good momentum across a couple of trade lanes. We also see good momentum in the day definite business that we have in Europe, for instance, which is not included here. This is TDI only. Outside these lanes to the United States, we see overall good momentum.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Thanks very much. I've got a question on supply chain. We've had a very solid organic growth trend, continuing trends that we've seen for a couple of quarters. Margins were down a little bit, and I want to understand how we should think about the shape of margin development from here. I appreciate that as you win new contracts, those can be sometimes a little bit margin dilutive, and then as your customer gets more comfortable with the offering, that tends to go up over time. With that pretty strong top-line trend and your sort of best-in-class position in the market, how should we think about that margin in the next couple of years? Could it push towards 7%, at EBIT, which is above your sort of midterm targeted range?
If it can't, what is the thing that's holding the margin back? Thank you.
Cedar, I think this is pretty easy. You know, we have a certain trend established, and I would see no reason why there would be a significant deviation from that trend line. As you rightly said, we had very solid growth. It varies a little bit which region is delivering, contributing more to that growth. In the last quarter, despite the FX headwind, we had very good contributions from the Americas. Overall, we expect that momentum, that positive momentum to carry on, and that would also apply for the margin. New business is not necessarily dilutive. In the past, especially in Europe, it was quite opposite that some prolongations had been dilutive. We worked actively to find measures that those prolongations are not dilutive anymore.
For instance, with the campus set up, so that you do not have the risk of redundancies and related restructuring costs when the customer leaves you. Those are those measures that we've taken over the years to really improve the business model to avoid margin dilution as contracts are renewed. Across the portfolio now, those renewal or first wins do not have a decisive effect. What plays more a role are our structural measures, our investments also in robotics, and the enhancement of our offering through additional features like real estate solutions. That has helped us to improve margins over time.
Thank you. Our next question is from Jacob Lacks from Wolfe Research. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Good morning. Thanks for your time. You listed fuel-
Mm-hmm.
availability as a potential impact in the medium term. At what point, if ever, does this become a constraining factor on your network? Bigger picture, do you view higher fuel pass, or higher fuel prices as a true pass-through for Express, or could it even be a bit of an EBIT positive when surcharges fully reset? Then, one on, one more on the TDI weight, down to, how does this compare between B2B and B2C, in the context of we've now seen a few consecutive months of PMIs above 50 in both the U.S. and Europe? Is this materializing in your B2B trends? Thank you.
Thank you, Jacob, for those three questions. Fuel availability, I think we have to differentiate between large hubs or airports where we have our own base, where we have, you know, dedicated infrastructure, as the case in Leipzig, for fuel supply there. We have an intense dialogue, and we have more visibility and more certainty about that supply continuing and being sufficient to fully support our operations versus more spoke locations, especially in Asia, where we do not have such a setup and are very much dependent on the availability of fuel through the local supplier, that typically being a regulated market, and our choices being limited.
We have seen in some Asian airports, constraints, either constraints that were announced, so no fuel, being available for additional flights, but also some structural shortages. We still then have the option to tanker in, so to fuel up at the, at the inbound flight, to a sufficient level that also supports the outbound flight. That is possible for regional and short-haul flights, not possible for intercontinental flights for obvious reasons. We had a couple of situation where that was the case. I think relative to other airlines, I see ourselves in a good position. I think we all recognize that if there's a continued shortfall of 10, 12 million barrels of crude every day, something has to give at some point.
That's also why higher prices are a logical outcome that then allow for fuel to be distributed to those areas where there is the biggest demand and the highest willingness to pay, where a lot of operations would fall clearly into that category. We pass on fuel to our customers. The recovery in Express and Global Forwarding is pretty good over time, but obviously there's some latency. Our recovery kicks in a little bit later than what we pay. We pay generally the spot price. Even though we have longer term contracts, that's the usual way jet fuel supply works. The latency would benefit us would there be a substantial drop in jet fuel and diesel at some point in time.
To your third question, the growth in Express has been supported by B2B. That's the really driver of the recovery of weight as we plan for. That's currently execution according to our plans and the specific focus that John Pearson has outlined for the Division.
Thanks for your time.
Thank you. Our next question is from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. They're all on Express. The first one, if I calculate well on your May fuel surcharges, it seems that the Express prices year-over-year will be up mid to high teens. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I guess my question is a bit conceptually based on what you've seen historically. What's the type of demand elasticity that takes place when you have this type of meaningful price increase? Is there any comments there? The second one on Express intra-Asia, we have some of the Southeast Asia countries which are rationalizing fuel. Some of your competitors seem to be adding more capacity in Asia.
Overall, could you tell us a bit more how much of the Express volumes is on intra-Asia routes, and maybe what trends are you seeing there in terms of demand in April and what do you expect going forward? The last one, if you allow me, coming back to the weight per shipment, I think it was up 4.5% in Q1, and you flagged your program on focusing on heavy weights. Could you help us a little bit visualize, I mean, where are you on the roadmap of progressing in this program? I'm thinking conceptually you're already getting in some heavyweight shipments, will that sequentially further increase in Q2 and Q3?
Could this weight per shipment actually see mid to high single digit growth year-over-year as we progress through the year, as you bring in more heavy shipments? Any color to help us there on the trajectory of bringing in heavy shipments in your network? Thank you.
Cristian, thank you for those questions. On the elasticity of demand as it relates to price, I think that's not easy to answer because Express is not an isolated element, but obviously adjacent to the general air freight market. I think in the general air freight market, we know that there are some segments that have a certain amount of elasticity. I believe we currently see some of that in the e-commerce segment Asia, Europe. As you know, our exposure to that is very limited. Looking at the broader market, I believe that there is some demand destruction through the current price level.
That might also be preparatory steps towards July 1st and the changes in the EU customs regime that the European Commission has also taken some decisions on this week. It might be a mix, but I would read some price-related demand destruction into that segment development over the recent days. As it relates to Express, especially in the short term, that elasticity historically is rather low. I would also read the current developments accordingly. As it relates to Asia, I think there's no exception to the general business trends. Our participation in that market is roughly proportional to GDP. Our market share is a little bit higher also as it relates to intra Asia movements than our global market share, not decisively so.
We participate in that market, and it's one of those lanes where we see the trends that you also see globally unfolding. Which brings me to the third point, our focus in Express on smart industrial growth. I think it's important to recognize that we're not focusing on, you know, five, 10-ton shipments that are traditionally in the air freight market. This is really targeting specific use cases of industrial customers, where we believe the Express, the integrator model has a better value proposition. In our last call, I talked about the incremental share gain that we have seen over the last 40 years. The integrators taking 0.3%, 0.4% of market share from the broader air freight market traditionally, and that not having happened since COVID.
I think we simply get back onto that trend and show that the Express model has a better value proposition for some of those industrial customers. The program related to that only just started, so we would see that continue to unfold in the coming quarters. That is a process, that is a initiative, that is still ongoing, and we would expect it to impact particularly weight per shipment, incrementally and gradually as we go along.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our next question is from Marco Limite from Barclays. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Marco, can't hear you yet. Marco?
Hi, Marco.
Please go ahead. If you press star six on your telephone line, it will unmute you.
Hi. Can you hear me now?
Please go ahead.
Now we can hear you.
Okay. Apologies for that. Thank you for the opportunity to ask the question. My question is on your cost savings program. Clearly, the EBIT this quarter is driven from Express OpEx. I wanted just to check with you whether you think you are now at the full run rate of your EUR 1 billion Fit for Growth program. If you think that you are outperforming on the EUR 1 billion Fit for Growth program, you're actually getting more than EUR 250 million cost savings in Q1. My second question is on your free cash flow. Very strong print in Q1. Melanie made a comment earlier that we shouldn't read through into this print too much for the full year.
Do you think that you can deliver a better outcome than EUR 3 billion this year? Thank you.
Okay. Let me start on the cost saving, and then I hand it over to Melanie. I would say two things to that. A, also, if you compare us against our competitors, it's important to note that we obviously report in euros, and they report in US dollars. That also has an impact on how to read cost, especially aviation cost. That being said, and Melanie already repeated that, we see ourselves well on the way with the Fit for Growth program ahead of schedule. There's obviously opportunity to get more.
We called out this program with specific measures at the time, but it should not create the impression that we wouldn't work on cost elsewise either. Even if that program at some point comes to an end, obviously we'll push for the deployment of new technology and further improvement in our operations. It's more than a matter of highlighting things and bucketing things and creating transparency around that. There's obviously additional ideas that we do have for structural improvement, and this will continue. Again, we see ourselves well underway and ahead of our original plans as it relates to Fit for Growth.
I think if I may add on that point, I think that is in line with what we have done on other topics in the past, right? If you kind of like want to get a cultural change on a topic into the organization, we start with a dedicated program, and that was Fit for Growth, and that was really a rallying cry across the organization. I think this is now becoming much more embedded into business as usual, this cost mentality, and that is why we are driving it less as a dedicated program now and more as an ongoing exercise. On the free cashflow, yes, as I said, a very pleasing start into the year.
Some of you have been around for a long time and recall Q1s where free cash flow was actually not so nice to look at. We're very proud that we are now generating cash, not just in the last month of the year but on a more distributed basis. I think it is a testimony to the underlying health of our business, and that allows us to reiterate our free cash flow guidance for the full year with confidence.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Alexia Dogani from JP Morgan. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just coming back to DHL Express and Tobias' comments on, you know, the value proposition, do you feel you are now at the right kind of cost base to pursue market share gains by basically emphasizing this value proposition? You've talked about in the past about healthcare and being a predominantly air freight sector. Are you making any progress in converting some of these air freight volumes into Express volumes? Related to that, obviously it's encouraging to see trends improve, but they remain negative. When we look at the trajectory over the next couple of quarters and year, do you think because of these initiatives you actually can start to see TDI shipment growth or weight growth as you're focusing more on that now?
Apologies if it was touched upon already, but can you give us a little bit, some comments on your AI opportunity set? Obviously, you've done a good job with Fit for Growth where you've addressed the kind of the asset element of the cost base. Yeah, what projects do you have ongoing that can increase productivity further in the asset light segment? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Alexia, for these questions. Starting with Express and the value proposition. I think we have improved the component of cost. I think there's further incremental steps to be done. Also, obviously the work on quality. I think we see ourselves overall in a good position now, but also a further improving position with those balanced measures that have helped us on the cost, but have also helped us on the quality side, which for us is very important. Express is a premium provider, as most of the services that we as DHL are offering in the market, quality is very important.
It is extremely important for us that we balanced as well and we deliver a good value proposition to our customers by combining great quality with a good cost position. On life science and healthcare, this is clearly not decisive for Express at the moment. This will take more time to build infrastructure, to build processes. As it relates to the developments that you've seen in the quarter, there is no significant impact from our life science and healthcare initiative. As it relates to Express, this will take some more time given that this is really a structural improvement that we do there. Infrastructure projects are still initiated and ongoing, that will take time to have an impact on the business.
As it relates to the weight per day development and the overall growth of Express, we do expect that to turn positive. I highlighted page five with the comparables against 2024. You see that into Q2, our year-on-year comparison becomes significantly easier. That would point to a year-on-year improvement simply also because Q2 of 2025 was much softer. As it relates to the gradual development of Express, you I think should expect that the year-on-year comparison turns more favorably. The last question on AI, that's something that is deeply embedded in multiple areas. It is supporting some of the Fit for Growth measures, but going way beyond that.
For us, very important not only to see the opportunities on the cost side, which we clearly do, but also to see the opportunities to make processes and value proposition better. We highlighted last time the improvements we see and others do in the area of customs, but it also extends into other operational areas. I'll give you one concrete example, which is the maintenance of our vehicles, where AI helps us to do that much better, to judge better what needs to be repaired and to combine ad hoc repairs with regular maintenance, renewal of tires, and so forth that is needed. That helps us now to reduce the number of repair shop visits and reduce costs. The number of those initiatives is very large, and they unfold over time.
Both in core operational processes, in Forwarding and other areas, as well as the supporting processes, we see the continued benefit of AI.
Thank you. Our next question is from Paresh Jain from HSBC. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Tobias, my question is more around what are your ongoing discussion with the customers regarding the potential impact or second-order impact of rising fuel prices across the economy? Also, when you look at your supply chain business, it appears to us that inventories is benign. What are you seeing in terms of the customers' inventory level, and what does that tell us going into the second half? I appreciate that you maintained the guidance which was provided just when the war started. The fact that you reiterated the same, what are some of the key assumptions that has gone with respect to how long will this war last versus where the oil price settles?
What are the scenarios with respect to demand? If you can provide some color based on what your different businesses are seeing.
On the last part, look, we are humble logistics people, and we focus on competing in our industry. We do not do many scenarios how the planet could evolve over the coming years. We look at experts, macroeconomists who tell us what they see as scenarios for the global economy. As we have highlighted in previous calls, we have learned that taking a conservative view on some of those macro developments is generally a good stance for our business as it relates to capacity planning and the ability to react. That has not changed. This is how we look at the year as a year that we continue to expect to be operationally demanding and volatile and not giving us much macro tailwind.
I'm not sure whether I understood the question around the customers and the inventory level. The inventory level referring to fuel or goods?
Goods as reflected.
Okay. Overall, I do not see that being a significant discussion point yet, in most customers' discussions, maybe with the exception of price-sensitive goods, consumer goods, being transported. The industrial value chain is quite inelastic to those short-term and midterm developments in price. It was highlighted earlier, whilst the jet fuel price obviously is up very considerably, if you look at our overall cost structure across the Group, this is a moderate impact. Yes, especially the general airfreight product, there it is a bigger component of the overall cost structure. In a lot of other areas, if you think about supply chain, if you think about parcel, it is not such a big component that would significantly influence the decisions of our customers.
General airfreight market to be seen. The volatility, and we have seen this again and again, typically counteracts in terms of creating a need for more airfreight as well. I think we need to see that as a compensating factor that some demand destruction due to higher prices driven by jet fuel prices might be counteracted by higher, a certain shift from air to ocean, if the economy stays very volatile, if disruptions continue. At least this is what we have seen in the past in similar situations.
Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you, and have a good day.
Thank you. Our next question is from Chloe Fu from Citi. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions, please. My first question is, if you see tightness in the current Express network due to the reduced supply availability, related to the conflict and also the improved sequential volume. If you could just give a bit of color on how utilization has improved in your network. My second question is related to your fuel pass-through mechanism. Obviously the fuel price in Asia is much higher than the U.S. and I was just wondering if it causes any issues or is it well captured by your fuel cost pass-through mechanism? Thank you.
Thank you for those two questions, Chloe. I think in terms of tightness, in the Express network capacity constraints, we don't see that. As always in such situations, the colleagues have done a great job in rejigging the network. I think we have showed some of the changes we made to our configuration in the Middle East. We have done a good job in rebalancing capacity and do currently not see utilization challenges. On the fuel surcharge mechanism, I think this is a well-established mechanism. We have tightened it a bit further.
We take a four-week average of the fuel price, and then with two months' time lag, we adjust the table. We do that now on a weekly basis. We feel that we are overall well covered with that established mechanism.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our final question is from Marc Zeck from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hey, hope you can hear me. Unfortunately I was only able to join late, so please excuse if there's any question that was already asked. I've got, let's say, two and a half. On Express, you've got now an EBIT margin of 13% in the first quarter roughly. Historically, I'd say for the summer months, Q2 and Q3 on average, you would have the same EBIT margin at Express as in the first quarter. Would that be a fair assumption? Q2 a bit higher, Q3 a bit weaker, but on average, summer months more or less the same EBIT margin in Express? Then a follow-up on Express. Could you remind me what is your exposure here really to U.S. AI CapEx spend, everything that is in servers or semis or anything?
Is that a major driver currently of your success also from a margin perspective in Express, or is it rather a minor part of your business? The real second question on the German consumer. I guess in parcel volumes so far in Q1 we're still pretty healthy. Could you provide a bit of color how parcel volumes in Germany have developed throughout the quarter? Was there basically the same volume in March as in January/February, or was there a weakening? What do you see currently in the early days of April in terms of parcel volumes in Germany? That's my questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Marc, for those questions. As it relates to Express, we do not see any significant changes to a normal seasonal pattern. As you know, we wouldn't get into quarter-by-quarter forecasts on such things, but we would not have reason to believe currently why the seasonal patterns across our business should be different than as per usual. The second question in terms of exposure of Express to AI CapEx spend for Express, this is relatively low. These are typically large projects and larger movements. I think Express gets more relevant as those facilities are in operations, spare parts are supplied, urgent, you know, maybe emergency spare parts. That's typical type of Express business.
A transformer, you know, 100 server racks, and so forth, that is not something that Express would typically do within the normal, regular products, of TDI. It might well happen that over the weekend, there's a charter operation of some sort, which is then executed by Global Forwarding. It's not in any way a major driver, that AI CapEx spend, for Express in the first quarter. Which brings me to the German consumer, which is obviously an animal that also has a tendency to be not so easy to forecast in its behaviors and actions.
There are also in the parcel market, effects of weather, the phasing of holidays and so forth that make it rather difficult to forecast, read a single week. I would say that we have seen, I think across Europe, a little bit an easing of the inflow of Asian e-commerce. Traditionally, that is replaced by more local buying after some weeks or month. Would that continue? Elsewise, we do not see any unexpected changes or changes to trends that we have seen in the first quarter.
What I said earlier obviously applies that with the situation around energy, I think there is a worry that macroeconomics have shared with us on how this impacts the broader economy and Europe and Germany especially overall being in a relatively weak position, weak underlying growth. Some consumer reaction at some point, we can obviously not exclude. So far we see the trends that we discussed continuing with the exception of maybe some slower inflow of Asian e-commerce, where we are engaged on the last mile in Germany and elsewhere to distribute that to consumers.
Thank you.
This concludes the Q&A session. I will now hand back to management for closing remarks.
Okay. Well, thank you very much for the very focused and disciplined Q&A session. We are looking forward to seeing you over the next couple of weeks on road shows and conferences. Now I want to hand over to Tobias for his closing remarks.
Yeah. Thank you, also for these good set of questions, which I think were very complimentary and touched upon nearly everything that we would also find worthwhile to talk about. Thank you for that. Overall, I think we had a good first quarter. Also, compared to competition, we see ourselves in a good spot. With confidence, we enter the rest of the year despite the volatility around us and the concerns that we also discussed on this call.
We see our value proposition in multiple segments gradually improving, and the work, and strategic focus, that we had, paying off. We highlighted some specific points in this call, including those longer term investments that now really improve our cost structure. The 777 were mentioned, but there are others that have also a contribution, like our investments in modern infrastructure. That is paying off and that we also see continuing over the quarters to come. That's why we also in this rather turbulent and uncertain situation as it relates to the world economy, that's why we stay confident regarding our goals for the year and our value proposition in the markets we operate in. With that, I thank you for your interest in this session and into our company overall.
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you everyone for joining. You may now disconnect.