Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the DHL Group conference call. Please note that the call will be recorded. You can find the privacy notice on dhl.com. Throughout today's presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, we ask that you please use the raised hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. If you have dialed in, please select star nine to raise your hand. Instructions will also follow at the time of Q&A. I would now like to turn the conference over to Martin Ziegenbalg, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Right. A warm welcome and good morning to everyone out there to our Q3 2026 results call. I have got here with me our Group CFO, Melanie Kreis. We are aware that peer reporting today may also require some of your attention, so we want to see that we keep this a focused session, ideally inside 60 minutes. With that, over to you, Melanie.
Clear instructions, Martin. Thank you for that, and good morning also from my side to all of you. As you will have seen, we have delivered another strong quarter, and we have raised guidance for 2026 EBIT and free cash flow on October 16th. In terms of numbers, we are talking about 13% revenue growth, translating into a 16% increase for the third quarter of 2026, and very importantly, more than EUR 2.5 billion of underlying free cash flow after nine months. We see accelerated revenue momentum that is translating into earnings and into free cash flow growth. The objective is to turn this improved momentum into a sustainable growth path.
That is why I would like to start with three perspectives on growth, namely the question of what is driving that growth today in the third quarter, what has been the longer-term market growth trajectory, and then most importantly, what are we doing ourselves at DHL Group to make this growth sustainable? Let us start on page three with the latest facts for the third quarter. What has been driving growth in this quarter? The answer is actually a very broad-based pattern. We see growth across transport modes, with all divisions showing organic growth, of course, a bit more on the DHL side than in P&P, as you would have expected. We have also grown across geographies, and that is interesting. The right side of the slide shows the trade lane matrix between our four major Express regions.
Weight per day is up year-over-year on all lanes, except within Middle East Africa for, I guess, understandable reasons. With global weight per day up strongly at 9.7% year-over-year in Q3, we obviously also see many trade pairs growing double digits. That is the dark green quadrants. This hopefully provides a useful perspective to confirm that the growth which we are seeing is not only related to local disruptions. We have also looked into the sector patterns of our three large DHL divisions, and here the growth momentum is again nicely widespread as well. Yes, technology is growing strongly, but we also see very good growth in the general B2B spectrum, including engineering and manufacturing, energy, as well as, of course, in life science and healthcare. This broad-based growth has been the usual general pattern, also from a wider historic perspective.
Yes, there have always been larger or smaller disruptions from external factors, but as our chart on page four shows, global trade on a real basis has been growing quite reliably nevertheless. The latest findings of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker run by NYU Stern also confirm this. Based on the most recently available data, global trade is not slowing, not reversing, but of course, the flows and the key drivers are changing over time. Which leads me nicely over to page five and the question of what are we as DHL actively doing to catch this global trade growth opportunity, as growth obviously also must be earned. The key to that is to have a value proposition that gives customers a clear reason to choose DHL.
In order to have such a strong customer value proposition, you have to understand the customer's needs, and you have to develop and fine-tune your capabilities to have the right solution for the customer needs. You see that the examples mentioned on this slide are closely aligned with our Strategy 2030 focus topics. It also means having the required capacities to support customers in their growth. Both of these elements, capabilities and capacities, require targeted growth investments, which we have reflected in our updated capex guidance. Last but not least, also after Fit for Growth, rest assured that cost excellence remains an absolute focus, as customers, of course, also look for a reasonable price level for the service quality they receive. This is where we see AI as a powerful opportunity on productivity, but just as well on improving the customer experience itself further.
One very concrete translation of this concept into practice is a Smart Industrial Growth strategy our Express colleagues are executing so successfully. John Pearson, our CEO of the DHL Express division, and Travis Cobb, our Chief Operating Officer, have talked about this in more detail in London in September. The replay is available on our IR website, and from my perspective, definitely worth watching. Let me therefore just briefly summarize the key takeaways on Express growth from page six. First, there is a customer need for highly reliable on-time delivery of certain industrial, quite often also heavier parts, and that is exactly what our Express TDI network is able to provide. Therefore, this proposition creates value for our customers and profitable growth for us, and we see it as a multi-year, almost structural growth opportunity, targeting dedicated pockets of the very large cross-border B2B market.
On page seven, you see the results of this focus in our Q3 numbers. Smart Industrial Growth is the key driver of the 9.7% weight per day increase, and that is the basis for the 50% EBIT increase for Express in Q3. Of course, continued cost focus and disciplined yield management also remain essential and have contributed to the Q3 numbers in Express as well. As examples for our yield discipline beyond Q3, let me point out our Demand Surcharge for this peak season, which came into effect on October 1st, and the usual annual general price increases for 2027. Coming back to Q3 and the year-to-date numbers, as ultimate proof of success, the strong EBIT growth in Express is also translating into a similarly strong increase in Express free cash flow.
Of course, we will invest in additional capacity over time as we successfully execute our Express growth strategy, but we will always make sure that those investments are the basis for fundamentally higher EBIT and results and healthy free cash flows. Before I touch on the other divisions, having already talked about Express quite a bit, we have added one explanatory slide on the much talked about Data Center Logistics topic, not because it is the single most important driver of our Q3 performance. I have just talked about how broad-based these drivers are. But I want to mention three more general aspects on the topic. Data Center Logistics is a perfect example of how our DHL value proposition fits to a rapidly evolving capability and capacity need from a customer group, which hence allows us to support the growth of that industry.
Secondly, it's a perfect example how our broader logistics portfolio becomes a real competitive advantage in being able to serve these highly demanding customers across all modes as one DHL. And lastly, in terms of numbers, data center growth is very strong also for us, but on still a quite small basis. Air freight has the highest exposure in the current phase, and we see Data Center Logistics contributing to new signings in Supply Chain. However, the biggest impact on our numbers at this point in time is actually through the impact on the air freight market capacity, which influences both our Global Forwarding and Express division. So let me conclude on that topic by saying that despite the frenzy around it, we certainly do not have any outsized exposure today and have been and will always make sure to keep a very diversified customer exposure across all dimensions.
Before we wrap it up to have enough time for your questions, let's have a quick look at the most relevant numbers for Q3, starting with the divisional overviews on page nine. We talked about Express already, strong rate growth, good cost control, and continued yield management. That's a recipe for EBIT growth in Q3 and beyond. We have seen another very good quarter for DHL Global Forwarding as well, with GP growth ahead of market as air and ocean freight secured good volume growth at year-over-year higher GP per unit. There is still more work to be done here, but Q3, like Q2 before, shows that Oscar and the team are on the right track and that we can indeed accelerate growth and increase conversion at the same time.
For DHL Supply Chain, numbers are, as usual, less spectacular on just a single quarter basis, but the continuity in the performance is impressive. After making it into the billionaires club in terms of annual EBIT contribution only recently, DHL Supply Chain is now establishing a EUR 300 million EBIT level as a quarterly run rate. And with the view on the peak season in the short term and the new business win pipeline, we also expect another strong Q4 contribution and continuation of the steady, resilient EBIT growth path going forward. eCommerce numbers are year-over-year for the last time influenced by our U.K. deconsolidation last year. The underlying business trend shows continued e-commerce-driven growth with a 6% organic revenue increase and roughly flat EBIT performance as we keep investing in the expansion of our market positions.
Last but not least, P&P is showing the expected development based on the well-known volume trends, and this had all been reflected in our 2026 guidance already. The team continues to successfully adapt our networks to the mail-to-parcel shift in light of the continued mail volume decline, and it is good to see that this structural decline has also been recognized in the mail pricing headroom given to us for year 2027. You will find the detailed group P&L in the appendix, and it is actually quite straightforward, and the written comments should cover anything noteworthy there. On the cash flow statement on page 10, I want to briefly explain the mechanics of the ongoing IEEPA reimbursements. So after a net inflow in Q2, we now had a net outflow of EUR 256 million in Q3, without which the reported free cash flow in Q3 would have been accordingly higher.
Taking out such quarterly variations, the nine months bridge summarizes it very well. Starting with our strong EBIT growth, we have some working capital buildup this year, especially in Global Forwarding, reflecting the accelerated volume growth and higher freight rates. I think that is within the range you would expect. And the capex increase mainly reflects strong performance and ongoing business wins in Supply Chain. Even when taking out IEEPA, we have generated more than EUR 2.5 billion of underlying free cash flow, so excluding net M&A and IEEPA after nine months, and I think that puts us nicely up for another year of strong cash generation. This is what we have also reflected in our guidance update as communicated on October 16th.
We have raised our EBIT guidance for 2026 to now above EUR 7 billion and free cash flow guidance to above EUR 3.2 billion, including higher capex expectations of now around EUR 3.6 billion. This means that we will hit our former midterm expectation of EUR 3 billion in group EBIT in 2026 already, and we will accordingly review our midterm guidance with the next annual results release in March. Now, I have raced through it very quickly, given the timeframe given to me by Martin at the beginning of the call. In summary, there are probably three points which I hope you will take away from our Q3 results presentation. The first one is growth is accelerating, and that is happening based on very broad-based drivers.
Secondly, our Strategy 2030 focuses on the capabilities and capacities that will allow us to make this growth sustainable as we grow where our customers grow strongest. Thirdly, and probably most importantly for you, we are striving for balanced growth that is profitable at increasing returns and cash flows. With that, it is almost time for your questions and for me to hand over to Martin to facilitate the Q&A. Before I do this, I want to call out one more impressive number and a very special milestone. This is actually Martin's 100th quarterly earnings call as Head of Investor Relations at DHL. Martin, congratulations, and thank you for your support, not only over so many years, but actually over decades. With that, over to you.
Thank you. One more to go, right? Good. Great. Alice, if you would be so kind and initiate the Q&A round, please.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. If you have a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. If you have dialed in, please select star nine to raise your hand and star six to unmute. When you see a pop-up on your Zoom screen, please accept. Once your name has been announced, please unmute and ask your question. If you want to withdraw your question, please lower your hand using the raise hand function. Thank you, and a moment for the first question, please. Our first question comes from Jacob Lacks at Wolfe Research. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hi, Melanie. Thanks for your time. Do you view the magnitude-
Thank you for getting up so early, I guess.
No problem. Do you view the magnitude of weight per day growth you are seeing today as sustainable? Is there any way to break out how much of the 9%-10% growth is driven by technology? Is there something that prevents your Express peers from also going after this Smart Industrial Growth and heavy weight Express opportunity? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you. I think on the first question, on the 9.7% growth weight per day, there is a component in there which is due to the market circumstances. I would not call out the Data Center Logistics piece as a direct component in our weight per day growth, but it is more due to the market impact, those distortions in the air freight market leading to capacity constraints and higher rates also on the air freight side. That has led to a certain spillover into Express. We have tried to quantify this impact of the air freight market tightness on the Express EBIT. In Q2, we said it is about EUR 150 million in EBIT impact. For Q3, it is around EUR 100 million. That also has a bit of an impact on the weight per day growth, but it is not the biggest chunk here.
We see very healthy weight per day growth if you take that part out. In terms of how unique is this position with competitors also talking about B2B focus and industrial growth, I think what really sets us aside is the strength of our global network. That is also something which I think is very nicely visible in this origin-destination matrix. We have a unique footprint, not just in a couple of countries, focused on one or two trade lanes, but we really have a unique differentiating global footprint. Particularly in a world where global trade flows get more diversified, that really plays to our advantage.
Thank you.
Useful enough, I hope. Good. Next caller then.
Our next question comes from Alexia Dogani at JP Morgan. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Yeah. Good morning, both, and congratulations, Martin, on your 100th earnings call. I have a couple of questions, if that's okay. Just firstly on freight forwarding, are you participating in this Chinese controlled volumes market that some of your peers are talking positively about? And then on air freight as well, can you discuss why gross profit yields were down quarter-on-quarter, whether there was anything that we should be aware of? Secondly, on capex, you've increased your capex for this year. Can you discuss where these incremental investments are going and what type of returns you're expected to make from them? Finally, in terms of your capital allocation policy, that has been quite consistent over the years. Obviously, the group is in a much more solid growth environment, cash flow is coming through.
Would you consider increasing your dividend payout policy to reflect this better cash flow fundamentals? Thanks.
Great. Yes. Thank you, Alexia. Lots of questions. Let me try to work through them. I think on the first one, the Chinese controlled volume, I think that was predominantly also related to the e-comm topic and, yeah, I think more on the ocean freight side. Is that the question? I think the clear answer from our side is that is not a big topic for us. We have not seen any structural shifts in that respect in our Global Forwarding customer base. With regard to your air freight GP quarter-over-quarter question, whilst GP in the third quarter is up year-over-year, it is indeed a bit lower than it was in the second quarter, and that is because the second quarter was very extraordinary due to the Middle East disruptions.
I think we still see the tightness in the market, but it has been a bit more normalized than what we had in Q2. That is also why, by the way, I just talked about the fact that for Express, we are still disclosing the spillover impact of the extraordinary circumstances. We also did that for Global Forwarding in Q2. We have not done it in Q3 because we see now for forwarding, dealing with this market circumstances is part of the normal business model. On the capex guidance increase, yeah, thank you for that question. I think it is very important to point out that, as we said before, this is not catch-up capex to fix underinvestment. This is really linked to capturing growth opportunities going forward.
When you look at the higher cash out for capex in the nine months year-to-date, actually the biggest contribution is from Supply Chain of that year-over-year increase, because we see so much great business coming in. You will see in the divisional backup slide that we also have an amazing pipeline in Supply Chain, so this is really going into growth. For the fourth quarter, we will probably also look at some opportunities in Express, but again, to accelerate growth. I think the most important message here, coming also to your fourth question, is we will do that, as always, in a very controlled and balanced way. We have been very happy with how our capital allocation discipline has evolved over time, and that is obviously something which we want to also ensure going forward.
As the pie grows over time, that will also create further opportunities along the different priority sectors. Let us now finish the year, get the books closed, and then we will also look at what that means for the dividend in the spring of next year.
Thank you.
I hope I have. Okay, great. Thank you.
[inaudible] and Cristian Nedelcu next.
Our next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu at UBS. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Could I please ask you, firstly maybe in Express, the weight growth 10%, I think you helped us in Q2 a bit with the split between how much of this weight is heavy growth versus the B2B sectors growing versus one-offs. It seems there's a bit less from the one-offs supporting Q3, but could you help us a bit split the weight growth between these three? The second one on Express capacity growth, could you please tell us load factors, where do they stand versus history? And conceptually, how do you think about 2027 and midterm Express capacity growth? You do flag the multi-year growth opportunity in smart industrial segments. And the last one, could I ask you, if we just zoom in on China-Europe for Express, could you help us a bit, how large is that?
Out of the total Express weights transported, how big is the China-Europe lane? And in particular, we've seen very strong imports from China to Europe over the last three years. Have you seen this also on the Express, within your Express weights, or not really? Thank you.
Yeah, great. Thank you, Cristian. Let me start with the Express weight per day, both the 9.7%, where is it coming from and how much is sustainable? I mean, this is not a mathematical formula, but I would say that order of magnitude of probably around 2 percentage points from the market circumstances, that is linked to the EUR 100 million we have quantified as the EBIT impact. So there is real underlying growth from a very broad base of B2B customers, where we then also see the additional getting a bit heavier component, which for once, this is actually a good thing. On the Express capacity growth and the weight load factor, yeah, so we see an improvement in the weight load factor. So there is this operating leverage component here.
As always, this is one of the KPIs where an average is a very crude thing because, of course, it varies a lot on the trade lanes, on the direction of the trade lane, and so on. But overall, we see the weight load factor moving into a good direction. Let me maybe use that opportunity to point out, and we have discussed that intensely also internally, so when we compare what we now see in growth compared to the COVID years, I think we are having a much stronger focus on keeping costs under control from the start. So holding the cost base down, the continued Fit for Growth mentality, so that is also really contributing to the EBIT growth we see in Express. And that is, of course, also an attitude we will have going forward.
As we grow, we will have to also invest into the network. But for example, when you look at the aviation side, we have multi-year refleeting plans, where a lot is also driven by the availability of suitable aircraft. So that's a multi-year plan where you can play around with the timing here and there, a bit dependent on growth, but also dependent on simply availability of appropriate aircraft. On the China to Europe question, so in Express, this is an important trade lane, but it's one of many trade lanes. There is clearly no overexposure, so we feel quite comfortable on that.
Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Muneeba Kayani at Bank of America. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Good morning. Starting from Express, the EUR 100 million benefit in 2Q, you had the EUR 150 million. In 4, should we expect this to continue? Because it looks like the market conditions do remain tight. Any indications you can give on weight per day growth, this kind of 10% level, is that something that you are seeing so far in the fourth quarter and the peak season? Then on the forwarding side, strong volume growth with yields. How are you thinking in terms of the split on market share gains benefiting forwarding, and what gives you confidence that these can be maintained? Because there were some issues at the competitors this year, and how do you see that going forward? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Muneeba Kayani. Let me start with the Express question. On weight per day development in Q4, I mean, we have just closed the books on October, and as already seen with our guidance increase on October 16th, we saw a strong start into the fourth quarter. So continued good growth in Express, and yeah, we believe that we should have a very solid. In terms of this one-off impact, I mean, we saw it decline from EUR 150 million-EUR 100 million in Q3. There will probably still be a bit of a component in Q4. We will do the same analysis, but I would say that directionally, it is definitely not increasing. I think that is also logical because, of course, in the peak season, we really have a lot of demand also from our traditional TDI customers.
Then on the DHL Global Forwarding numbers, yeah, so indeed, we are pleased with the volume and yield development both on air freight and ocean freight. Yeah, it looks, looking at Q2, Q3, that we have been taking market share, which is, of course, pleasing to see. We also acknowledge that we still have some catching up to do and that there is room for further improvement in DHL Global Forwarding. But for me, what I also see, we just had a detailed business review with Oscar and the team. I think we really see that those priorities which Oscar put into place when he took over last summer, that they are gaining traction. So there is also really a very strong element of stuff we control ourselves, and that should also help us.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, and next caller then.
Our next question comes from Patrick Creuset at Goldman Sachs. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hi, Melanie. Can you hear me okay?
Yes, we can hear you.
Great. I'd love to get more color on the forwarding performance. I mean, you seem to be taking good market share in Air and Sea. I mean, to what extent is it Oscar bringing his supply chain magic to the division? If that's the case, what are the specific measures you can point to that are visible in the quarter? Is there also an element where base effects, cyclical backdrop, et cetera, have benefited the division? Based on that, how do you see volume and conversion margins trending in the coming quarters then?
So thank you for that question. It's a very nice one. Is it Oscar's magic or more kind of like the market? I think what you can really see, what Oscar talked about, focusing the organization on a money-making mindset, getting a better collaboration in the matrix in place between how the products and the country organizations work together, a sharpened focus in the sales organization, supported also by better transparency from digital on where to hunt and how to hunt. I think this is really the stuff which is supporting from our internal side. Then obviously in a market which is quite turbulent and where customers really need a trusted partner to help them, that is supporting further. I think on this basis, we're also confident that we will do a good job in the fourth quarter.
In terms of the longer-term outlook, I mean, as we have always been making predictions on how DHL Global Forwarding will develop is notoriously difficult because it is the most macro cyclical of our divisions. I think structurally, the expectations are quite different for air and ocean freight, because obviously on the air side, when you look at how much additional air capacity will become available in the next years, that is relatively limited. The production lines are not able to deliver to all the demand out there. The conversion slots are limited. I think on the air side, we will have a structurally probably more capacity-constrained situation, whilst on the ocean side, we see the opposite with quite a lot of capacity being built at the moment.
Well, I mean, on the cyclical stuff, I mean, it is 20% conversion margin or so, right? And your same scale peers, they are like 30%, 40%, 50%.
Do you see a path over the next year or a couple of years to those kind of levels at all?
As I said before, we clearly have room for improvement, and we have need for improvement. It is not that Oscar and the team are sitting there after Q2, Q3 saying, "Hey, job done." But I think it is a very positive encouragement for the organization to see that, yeah, what they are now doing differently is actually working and is paying off. So very clearly, we focus on and expect the division to further improve absolute numbers and the conversion next quarters.
Yeah, thanks.
Our next question comes from
Thank you.
Thanks.
Our next question comes from Parash Jain at HSBC. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hi. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I mean, one of my questions has been answered. My other question for Melanie, I mean, given the reaction that we have seen in the market in the last two, three days with respect to oil, there is expectation that we are probably, we will see some sort of resolution with the Iran war. Like, in terms of how things could play out for the freight market, if you can share your thoughts in a scenario of some end to the Iran war, some resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, how do you see the unwinding of capacity or a potential demand with respect to rebuilding of those markets or the surge of freight demand in those market?
Are they evening it out, or do you think that probably it will bring some additional volume, or do you think that it will unleash a lot of capacity to weigh on the demand? If you can share your thoughts around that.
As a first of all, let's see what really happens. I think it still remains a quite volatile and turbulent world now. I think we as a company have shown that we can deal with that volatility. Should we come to a more peaceful scenario with stability in the Gulf region and the maritime traffic flowing more normally, I think it will, first of all, take quite a long time for the disruptions to get out of the system on the ocean side. As I said before, I think directionally in a multi-year perspective, we see a more high-capacity ocean freight environment coming into play. I think on the air freight side, the stuff which has to fly is flying already, so there is less of a backlog.
I think then the big question is, if this is turning into a generally more dynamic global economic situation, that could then lead to more demand. We've seen so much changes overnight in the last years. Yes, of course, we look into different scenarios, but I think for us, the most important thing has been being close to our customers through our great colleagues on the ground, and then looking for every change, how to turn that into an opportunity. I think that is what you can also really see in the last two years.
That's very helpful. Thank you so much, and have a good day.
Yeah, you too. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Cedar Ekblom at Morgan Stanley. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Thanks very much. Hi, Melanie. I've got a question on Supply Chain. You talk about it as the business that is getting the majority of the capex, so clearly strong growth there. But if I look at the revenue and underlying EBIT growth, it tells a picture of compressing margins, modestly, but they're still down year-over-year, even though you grew the top line by 12%. You also talk about your new contract wins. I think it's over EUR 6 billion year-to-date. What I want to understand is, how do we think about the shape of the margins in Supply Chain from here? When do those new contracts become margin accretive? How do we think about the growth profile of the business with the capex being allocated? Thanks so much.
Yeah. Thank you, Cedar, and thanks for asking the question about Supply Chain, which I still think is an under-talked division. First of all, I think in terms of quarter-on-quarter margin development, I wouldn't over-interpret that. I think we are solidly at the 6% level, what we are targeting. I'm very pleased with that, with both the growth and the EUR 300 million in EBIT contribution. In terms of capex, I mean, what I meant was when you look at kind of like this year-over-year additional cash out from capex in our cash flow bridge, this increase for the nine months was strongly influenced by Supply Chain. That is not to say that Supply Chain will now get our most capital-intense division, but it was to make the point that for this good growth pipeline, we will also need capex going forward.
And that takes me to your question, okay, when is that EUR 6 billion new signed business going to really go live? That will take a bit of time. So typically, when you kind of like sign a contract, it of course depends on do you have to build the warehouse, do you have a warehouse into which you can move the stuff immediately? That can take 12 months until you really see it flowing through the P&L, and that is also why, we have to make a bit of an upfront investment into future growth. But here, as I already said for the group overall, we are, of course, doing a very controlled and balanced approach to make sure that we strike the right balance between growth going forward, cash out, and capital intensity, and then EBIT margin contribution going forward.
Cedar, okay for you?
Yes, all understood. Thanks very much. Yeah, yeah. All clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks.
Also making good progress on the queue. Two callers left, as far as I can see.
Our next question comes from Marco Limite at Barclays. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. One is on the P&P business. So, a couple of questions here, actually. You have announced a 20% price increase for next year, and 2028 as well. Can you just clarify whether the 20% should be applied on January 1st, 2027, or is 10% in 2027, 10% in 2028, and so on? Then also, in terms of pricing, I see from slide 18, a 10% increase for private parcel prices, whether that 10% also applies to business parcels. I guess the conclusion of these questions on pricing is, what we should expect for EBIT in 2027 and 2028? Because 20% price increase is a lot higher than what we have seen in the past. So, shall we expect EBIT in P&P quite above the EUR 1 billion mark in 2027 and 2028?
The second question is just a clarification. We have been talking about EUR 150 million one-off earnings in Q2, EUR 100 million in Q3, maybe EUR 100 million in Q4 again. As we think about 2027, do we think that those one-off earnings will drop or will stay? Just if you can give us a reminder on how you are calculating that, and if demand remains strong, shall we expect that profitability to stay, because it is quite a big number on a full-year basis. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Marco, and thank you for also giving us the opportunity to briefly talk about P&P, where indeed it seems as if we will get a reasonable price increase. It is not final yet. We have now, based on the preliminary headroom, told the agency how we want to apply it. The way we want to apply this is that we actually want to do one price increase at the beginning of the period, so not doing one at the beginning of 2027 and one at the beginning of 2028. That is most prominently reflected in the standard letter stamp, which would go from EUR 0.95- EUR 1.15. Again, all subject to the final confirmation by the Federal Network Agency, which we expect in the course of this month.
On the business parcels, this is something which we are still working on, where the sales colleagues will pick it up with the customers. On the question, where does that take us? Obviously, we would expect that after targeting EUR 900 million+ for this year, we should obviously see a good contribution in 2027, and then potentially again, like we now also saw in 2025, 2026, the impact of not having a price increase in 2028. I think that is all centered around this, "Hey, we need about EUR 1 billion in P&P so that this division is self-funding." We will give the concrete guidance on that in March when we come out with our 2027 guidance. That is basically also the answer to your second question on the one-time benefits in Express, the EUR 150 million in Q2, EUR 100 million in Q3.
Let us now first see how much of that do we actually still have in Q4, and then we will assess the picture for 2027 and, of course, bake that then also into our DHL and group guidance for 2027.
Thank you. Just a very quick follow-up. When you talk about the one-off, the definition, theoretical definition of that one-off is basically the profitability coming from the Middle East disruption, or is that coming from the strong volume environment? Just for us to better understand.
Yeah. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to. No, that's, I think, very good, Marco Limite. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to clarify that. So, we very clearly do not want to call it a Middle East element. I think this is more due to the general tightness in the air freight market, where several factors are contributing to. In Q2, it was very strong in the Middle East, and the Data Center Logistics demand. So this tightness in the air freight market, this lack of capacity, and the associated high air freight rates lead to certain volumes, which would typically be in air freight, and which we also expect in air freight going forward, move over into the Express network, that as a not permanent element. We have tried, yeah, in the best possible way to quantify that. Is that an exact mathematical formula?
No, but I think it's a relatively solid number to give you an indication for the size of that effect.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please use the raise hand feature. Alternatively, if you have dialed in, please press star nine to raise hand. When your name is announced, please unmute and ask your question. Our final question comes from Arthur Truslove at Citi. Please unmute your line and ask your question. Arthur, please press star six on your phone to unmute.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I guess the first question was just, I didn't quite understand the key verticals that are driving the Express performance. I was wondering, is it very significantly technology, or are there other bits and pieces? I just wondered if you could call out the two or three verticals that are contributing most, and are you expecting similar growth performance in terms of volumes over the next couple of quarters within that division? Second question, I know it's a bit early, but are you able to just remind us how you think about buybacks, dividends, special dividends for next year in terms of what your framework is like?
Finally, are you expecting yields in air and sea and freight forwarding to be up quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, or indeed down or flat? Thank you very much.
Yeah. Thank you, Arthur. On the key verticals in Express, I mean, really the nice thing about the Express business is that we have this widespread footprint across different sectors, and that is also what we now see in terms of growth. We actually see growth across all sectors in terms of revenue per day. Yes, of course, tech engineering are growing quite strongly, but it is really a very broad-based growth across different verticals. So there is a market component, but there is also this very structural growth focus in Express, which is playing out. That is, of course, something which we also expect going forward. As debated, as talked about before, there is a bit of a component in the rate per day growth of 9.7%, which is due to the circumstances, but there is this very solid underlying rate per day growth component.
We should expect that rate per day growth to continue going forward. On the dividends and share buyback and what to do with its capital allocation in 2027, yeah, it is usually at that time of the year when we start getting those questions, and my answer has always been, and that is also the answer for now, is we are now focused on kind of like managing the peak, closing the books for the fourth quarter and the full year, and we will then take a decision on dividend share buyback, et cetera. On the yield in air and ocean, yeah, so now I have to see how it really plays out in the peaks. I think overall, we expect a good quarter for DHL Global Forwarding also in Q4.
Thank you very much.
That answered your question? Yep. Great. Thank you.
From what I can see, we worked down the whole queue of questions to be asked, 50 minutes into this call. I am amazed and hand back to you, Melanie, for your closing remarks.
Well, Martin, that shows you the impact you have when you give us the instruction based on your 100 quarters of experience to be swift, we actually do it. I also think that with the questions we have actually covered probably all relevant facets around this third quarter, which was, as said a couple of times, a very strong quarter for us as a group. With that, we are on a good path to deliver on our elevated guidance for 2026, the more than EUR 7 billion in EBIT, EUR 3.2 billion in free cash flow. So we really feel, as we hopefully were able to communicate and share with you, as temporary and market-driven, that is really grounded on a very broad base for growth also going forward, and that should also help us in the quarters to come. With that, thank you very much.
I think it was kind of like the last earnings call which we do in the year 2026. So I know that is a bit scary, but some of us may only talk in the new year. It is a bit early to say a Merry Christmas, but I wish you all a very good finish to the year 2026. All the best for the last weeks in the current year, and see you then all in 2027. Thank you very much.