Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Daimler Truck. Welcome to our Capital Market Day. I'm Christian Herrmann, Head of Investor Relations and M&A. I have the pleasure to guide you through our event today. It actually is our first Capital Market Day as an independent listed company. We have a lot in store for you today. You know from our past presentations, and you just saw it again in the video, that we aim to unlock our full profit potential and to lead the historical transformation of our industry. Today, we want to give you an update on that. It will be a comprehensive, extended update, meaning that we will not only look at our further steps toward our 2025 ambitions, but beyond. Today, and this is a premiere, we will present you our story until 2030. I think it will be quite compelling.
Martin Daum, our CEO, will be first to tell you about what we call our transformation for sustainable growth. Andreas Gorbach, our CTO, will explain how we are elevating our technology leadership in powertrains and truck operating systems. Jochen Goetz, our CFO, will report how we are leveraging our financial strength to deliver an ambitious financial plan for 2030. Key themes throughout all the presentations will be: our intense focus on shareholder value creation, our capital discipline, and our ability to reward our shareholders. In between the presentations, you will hear from our segment heads in specific videos. After that, Martin will come back for a quick wrap-up, we are looking forward to your questions.
For everyone who is not able to join us live today, should you have any questions to the later Q&A session, please email them to ir@daimlertruck.com. We will ask them for you. I would also like to remind you, as always, that this Capital Market Day is governed by the disclaimer wording that you find in the published Capital Market Day documents. Please know that our presentations contain forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. That's it from my side. Let's jump right in and get started. Martin, the stage is yours.
A warm welcome to our Capital Market Day, also on my part. When I look around, I think we picked really an exciting location for our event here in Boston. Since this actually used to be the world's largest power generation plant at one point of time, this is truly an energizing location. That is exactly what we want to deliver here today, a truly energizing event. It has been exactly 20 months since our last Capital Market Day. We have used this time very well. We made great progress and got a lot accomplished. There is even more potential going forward, not only with respect to our 2025 ambitions, but also beyond. Our Daimler Truck story for the second half of this decade gets even more exciting.
We call our 2030 Plan Transforming for Sustainable Growth because this is exactly what we are doing in the literal sense of every single word. We are transforming our products and services, and we are transforming the profitability of our group. We are becoming more sustainable in terms of the transition to zero-emission vehicles, and we are becoming more sustainable in terms of profitability. We have great opportunities for growth thanks to our strong global presence, and we have great opportunities for growth thanks to our leading solutions, as you see here, and we will go for these opportunities. Transforming for sustainable growth means Daimler Truck has an exciting road ahead. It means that it is a fascinating time to be leading this company. Let me now walk you through our story in all details.
Let's start off where we are coming from while we are paving our way forward. We will not forget our heritage. Our purpose remains the very same: We work for all who keep the world moving. This is who Daimler Truck is, and our entire global team is very proud of that. Despite all changes going on in our industry, this is something that will not change. Trucks and buses will remain the backbone of the economy and the society. Our industry, therefore, remains a virtually vitally important industry. Daimler Truck is a global leader in this industry in terms of technology and global presence, as well as in terms of trust and authority. When we talk, the industry listens. We are fully committed to maintaining this leadership. We aim to lead the ongoing technological transformation....
We will do so with great zero-emission products, like our Freightliner eCascadia, that you can see right next to me there. We will do it so with great customer focus, or as we like to say internally, with great customer obsession. At Daimler Truck, we are obsessed with making customers successful and with supporting them on their way to sustainable transportation. We want to make sure we can offer our customers exactly the right solutions, and that means not just the right product, but also with the right service offering and the right financial services. We will do so with partners wherever it makes sense, and by ourselves, where we see a real competitive advantage. When we now look at the overall prospects of our industry, there is a lot of good news.
First, many industries face existential strategic questions over their future in a zero-carbon world, and the transition to zero-emission transport certainly is a transition of historic dimensions, but it is no disruption to our industry per se. That's because the foundation of our industry is rock solid. Means of transportation are key to keeping the world moving, and there are no better means of transportation in sight than trucks and buses. Trucks remain the most practical solution for long-haul movement of goods and for last-mile delivery, so our products cannot be replaced. A successful OEM like Daimler Truck cannot simply be replaced either. This is particularly due to our deep customer relationships. For our customers, the purchase of our trucks and buses often is the most important decision they make throughout the year. Consequently, they want a partner they can trust.
We, as Daimler Truck, have the trust of our customers. This trust is not earned easily. The second piece of good news regarding the overall prospects for our industry is this: Trucks remain a growth industry, even in a zero-carbon world. It remains a cyclical industry. We will continue to see setbacks also in the future. These setbacks will continue to be temporary, and thanks to catch-up effects, the recovery usually is all the more significant. The underlying growth trend is still intact because global GDP will continue to grow, and if GDP grows, the number of trucks will grow as well. There is a strong correlation. All in all, our core markets in North America and Europe should see good volume growth over the medium term, and there's a very significant growth potential in India, where we also have a strong presence.
As a global leader, we are very well positioned, and we will make sure we take maximum advantage of this positive industry outlook. Let's look at our specific way forward as Daimler Truck and how exactly we are transforming for sustainable growth. The first message here is we are fully on track to deliver on our 2025 profit ambitions. We are on track to deliver higher profitability, and more than this, we can. We are increasing the resilience of our business. Today, our outlook remains positive. Our order books are full. Our pricing is solid. At some point, not necessarily tomorrow, and not the day after tomorrow, there will be another downturn, and we are preparing for that. We are reducing our fixed cost, increasing our recurring revenues, building out our financial services, and continuing with our robust cash generation.
In addition, we are delivering greater shareholder rewards. As a first step, we confirmed our first dividend at our annual general meeting three weeks ago. In short, we are delivering for 2025 what we announced for 2025. This is an important step. By 2025, we will lay the foundation for our transformation for sustainable growth. From this foundation, we can then take the next big step and execute this transformation. This is our story until 2030. We will share it with you today. It's a powerful story because at Daimler Truck, we are ready for the transition to the new world of zero emissions. We are ready to capture all opportunities that come with it. They are great opportunities.
The combination of growing markets, deep customer relationships, more services, the chances of zero-emission products have for us, and the potential of autonomous, meaning all higher levels of profits. At the same time, we maintain our capital discipline, controlling our CapEx and R&D to generate an even higher free cash flow. This cash further strengthens our financial position and allows even greater rewards for our shareholders. I believe this makes Daimler Truck a very compelling proposition. Let's take a closer look at our 2030 Plan and the winning formula behind it. At the core is our high-performance culture that we refined since our separation into an independent company, and where shareholders' value is a major focus. On top, that there are six strong strategic pillars. One, we consistently implement our self-help measures to increase resilience.
Two, we ensure recurring revenue streams to further increase resilience and customer lifetime value. Three, we'll take full advantage of our economies of scale with respect to conventional and zero-emission technologies. Four, we prioritize the high-margin heavy-duty segment. Five, we take advantage of Autonomous Trucking to enter this very profitable business with recurring revenue streams. And finally, six, we fully integrate ESG into our strategic framework. Let us now go through our strategic pillars. I want to start by pointing out, we are delivering, and we are doing so despite a much more challenging environment than was ever expected. First, we are delivering on technology transformation. We will have 10 zero-emission products in serious production by the end of this year.
Let me make one thing clear, because this term is sometimes used in different ways: when we talk about serious production, we actually mean serious production. We can then produce a vehicle in any quantity our customers want, and not just a few prototypes for selected customers. Second, we are delivering new products for attractive markets. You can see the best example right next to me. The X-Series vocational products by our Western Star brand are extremely well received by our customers in North America. In addition, the Tourrider bus has established itself in the U.S. Coach segment, the world's most profitable bus market. In China, the world's largest Truck market, our locally produced Mercedes-Benz heavy-duty truck is gaining momentum. Third, we are delivering on our service initiatives.
In 2022, the service revenue in our industrial business was 15% above 2019, setting a new record in our parts business. There's more to come. For example, driven by optimization of our dealer network and by expanding the possibility of e-commerce. Finally, we are clearly delivering against our financial ambitions to ensure maximum shareholder value creation and attractive dividends. We have significantly improved our return on sales, we have further strengthened our balance sheet, our cash conversion remains strong, we are consistently executing our active portfolio management. This includes our willingness to take the hard decisions, guiding by return on capital employed in our capital allocation framework. We are now further optimizing our capital allocation framework, Jochen Goetz will provide an update in his presentation.
I also have an update for you, or should I rather say, a very positive upgrade. Following our strongest first quarter in 2023, we have continued our positive momentum in the last couple of months. We are now very confident that 2023 will be another record year for Daimler Truck, and we are therefore raising our guidance. We raise the adjusted ROAS target of our industrial business by 1 percentage point, from 7.5%-9% previously, to now 8.5%-10%. What is particularly positive, we also raise the adjusted ROAS target range of each industrial segment by 1 percentage point, with no exception.
We are now guiding for 11%-13% at Trucks North America, for 8%-10% at Mercedes-Benz, for 4%-6% at Trucks Asia, and for 3%-5% at Daimler Buses. For Financial Services, we do not raise the target of 9%-11% return on equity at this point, as Financial Services is still ramping up its business in Europe. Jochen Goetz will have further details on our guidance. Let me conclude this topic by pointing out our increased guidance is another important step towards our ambition of 10% ROAS and more, it's a clear sign of our confidence about our way forward. If we now look at 2025, my key message is this: we keep all our 2025 financials ambitions on group and in segment level.
We are able to do this despite the fact that the macro environment has proven more challenging. That's because we consistently implement our self-help measures. We are on track with growing our services to translate our customer relationships into recurring revenues. While we need to invest in the transformation of our company, we do this in a very disciplined, right-sized way. We focus on investments on zero-emission technologies and on Autonomous Trucking. We do not everything ourselves. We join forces with partners whenever it makes sense. Fixed cost reduction is proving to be challenging, not least because of the inflationary environment. Despite the fact that pricing is currently more than compensating for cost pressure, we will not soften this ambition.
We must, and we will, further reduce our fixed costs to ensure greater resilience so that we are prepared in the event of a rainy scenario. Here is an overview of our portfolio. As you can see, we run a comprehensive ecosystem that goes well beyond our products and complements them perfectly. This is great for our customers, because for a successful transition into the new area of zero-emission transportation, they do not just need the best vehicles, they need the best overall solution. It's great for Daimler Truck, because an expanding service business means increasing recurring revenue streams with a return on capital employed that is well above average. A very good example for that is our eCanter.
We not only offer attractive services for maintenance, insurance, and leasing for our eCanter, we also finance the installation of the necessary charging infrastructure. For example, we provide comprehensive consulting on the best charging strategies in the depot and along the route, and we are preparing numerous other services, such as energy procurement and the reuse of recycling of batteries. There is a great eCanter ecosystem, and it is built around a great vehicle. I'm convinced that the eCanter is the best electric truck money can buy these days in the world. It has been in serious production since 2017, and in the young area of zero emissions, six years is a long, long time. We used this wisely and continuously improved our eCanter, so that by now it's a very mature vehicle with a very mature technology and great customer feedback.
Let's move on to the next factor on our winning formula, and that is scale. Scale is one of the structural benefits we have as a global leader, and we consistently work on set to make sure we exploit its full potential. We particularly do so with respect to our powertrains, as powertrains represent the major share of vehicle cost. Regarding internal combustion engines, we are focusing on captive, high-margin, heavy-duty engines. Here we have the largest global platform in the industry, and we use it across our brands in all regions. In medium-duty engines, on the other hand, we partner with Cummins, and this frees up capital. Regarding our battery and fuel cell powertrains, we invest with the same focus and efficiency. Also, in our zero-emission technologies, we are maximizing commonality and partnerships to take full advantage of our scale.
This is a great example how we are constantly thinking of better ways in this respect, that is the memorandum of understanding we recently signed in Japan. The goal is a merger of Mitsubishi Fuso with Hino Motors and, in addition, a technological collaboration between Daimler Truck and Toyota Motor. This would add significant scale to all relevant propulsion technologies, be it conventional or zero emission. Andreas Gorbach will tell you more about our global technology platforms in his presentation. Before we move on, one last message on my part regarding this topic: across all segments, our customers can choose from a broad portfolio of zero-emission products already today, as most vehicles on this slide are serious vehicles. Tomorrow, this portfolio will be even more comprehensive, as shown by the camouflaged vehicles that currently still have project status.
Let us now look at our different zero-emission technologies from a customer perspective. Our customers have very different use cases, and for every application, they will pick the best solution. We think that the following technology segmentation will emerge over time. Urban bus and truck transportation with short routes and the possibility of depot charging will use batteries. Long-distance transportation will either use fuel cells or batteries. Our customers will make their choice depending on the availability of infrastructure and the total cost of ownership. Infrastructure means hydrogen refueling stations and/or high charging stations. Total cost of ownership will mostly depend on the price of hydrogen versus the price of electricity. Vocational trucks, such as an 8x4 dump truck, require significantly more energy for their bodies than for driving, so they will use hydrogen combustion engines.
You may be surprised that I include hydrogen combustion engines in this overview, because so far, our hydrogen strategy has been focusing on fuel cell alone. We're keeping a very close eye on the discussion about hydrogen combustion engines, and we are in a very good position with this technology. First, we can make use of our enormous experience we have with classic combustion engines. Second, in recent years, we have built up the necessary expertise for potential use with hydrogen. This means we are well prepared. If the hydrogen combustion engine is supported politically for good reasons, because it is a very good CO₂-free alternative, we can act very quickly and offer our customers suitable vehicles.
All that comes down to the following: Going forward, our customers around the world can continue to rely 100% on Daimler Truck, If we can continue to make our customers successful, we will also continue to be successful ourselves to the benefit of you, our shareholders. Let now hear from Till Oberwörder, our CEO of Daimler Buses, how he is positioning Daimler Buses as a frontrunner in zero-emission vehicles. Till?
Hello, and good day, everyone. My name is Till Oberwörder, and I'm the CEO of Daimler Buses. Our ambition at Daimler Buses is to lead our industry's transformation towards zero emission transport, and of course, we work continuously to turn this ambition into reality in all our core markets. Let's have a look at where we stand right now. In Brazil, we launched our electric bus chassis, eO500U, last year, and in Europe, we are delivering our Mercedes-Benz eCitaro to customers since 2018 already. Our electric city bus comes with many charging and battery options. Only recently, we added another variant to that portfolio, the eCitaro, with a fuel cell as a range extender. This bus can operate long routes and seamlessly replace a conventional city bus.
We have a comprehensive portfolio. It matches the different needs of our customers perfectly. This is reflected in both our sales and orders. Since the start of production, we have sold more than 1,000 units of the eCitaro. We do have the same figure in our order books. We also seize the opportunity to grow our business beyond the vehicle. Having started with e-mobility and infrastructure consulting quite early in 2017, we grew our service portfolio into offering construction site management, depot planning, service team trainings, and the like. This was very well received by the market. Consequently, we are now establishing Daimler Buses Solutions, a dedicated unit which will offer complete turnkey e-systems to our customers. Back to our vehicles, how do we plan to proceed?
In the city bus segment in Europe, we will focus on a pure electric strategy. By 2030, we aim to sell only zero-emission vehicles. Starting in the second half of the decade, we plan to offer electric vehicles for the interurban bus segment, and by 2030, we plan to have zero-emission coaches ready for the market. This means we are electrifying our entire portfolio across all segments and markets. A few last words on our technology strategy: just like our Truck colleagues, we plan to offer both battery and hydrogen drive. Accordingly, we intend to share the same technology base, and we will start leveraging these synergies in the second half of this decade. Ladies and gentlemen, that was a short speed date with Daimler Buses. I hope the insights were helpful. Thank you for listening, and goodbye.
I would like to take a step back and look at the overall path to zero emissions, not from a Daimler Truck perspective, but from an industry perspective. If we do so, one thing is certain: in the long term, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is inevitable. All trucks and buses will be zero-emission vehicles one day. It is therefore clear where the transportation path leads to. It is less clear, however, which exact course and which exact speed this path will take. This depends on factors that are not at Daimler Truck's control. How quickly battery and hydrogen will replace the diesel engine, for example, depends on regulators. It depends on their willingness to support the operation of zero-emission vehicles and to make the use of diesel-powered vehicles more expensive. It also difficult to predict how the exact mix of battery and hydrogen will develop.
The challenging development of a comprehensive charging infrastructure plays an important role here, as do future energy prices. Depending on how the prices for electricity and hydrogen turn out in the future, our customers will rather opt for battery trucks or for fuel cell trucks. There is only one way to successfully master this uncertainty, and that is flexibility. As an OEM, you need to be extremely flexible and cost efficient, and this is exactly our approach at Daimler Truck. We have leading diesel engines, and we have a dual-track zero-emission strategy with battery and hydrogen. We have all the technology in stock that is needed for this historic transformation, and we deploy it in a very efficient way. We focus on differentiating technologies, we leverage our global scale, and we engage in strategic partnerships.
This means we have the right cost-efficient solutions for different transformation speeds and scenarios. We are able to successfully navigate the uncertain environment going forward. Now that we have dealt with the uncertain transformation path, the question is this: what are the decisive factors for making zero emission transport a mass market? Many of you will know that I have a clear formula here. It is a formula with three factors: the right product, the right infrastructure, and cost parity. These factors are linked in the same way as a multiplication problem. If one factor is zero, the entire result is zero. Sustainable transportation can only be successful if all three factors are in place. Customers need to be able to buy the right vehicles, and they need to be able to easily charge these vehicles and to earn money with them.
The challenge now is to have all three factors developing simultaneously. At present, this is not the case. Regarding FACTOR 1, product offering, Daimler Truck and our entire industry are doing great. We are rolling out a great number of, and a great variety of zero-emission vehicles. FACTOR 1 is in good shape. I am not worried at all in that regard, especially not for Daimler Truck. FACTOR 2 and 3 are lagging behind. Regarding infrastructure, a lot obviously needs to be done. A green energy infrastructure is the basis for green transportation, but building this infrastructure all the way from energy generation to distribution of energy involves a huge effort.
I am confident, however, that we will see infrastructure projects gaining momentum, because energy companies are increasingly recognizing attractive business cases, and policymakers are fully aware that infrastructure is key to achieving the ambitious CO₂ reduction goals they set in key regions. To help kick things off, we are engaging in several partnerships for green energy infrastructure projects. As for FACTOR 3, cost parity, we at Daimler Truck work hard to bring down the cost of zero-emission vehicles. Let me state very clearly, for the foreseeable future, cost parity with conventional vehicles can only be achieved if policymakers are willing to implement the right regulatory framework. Measures are needed, such as CO₂ pricing, CO₂-based tolls, or additional taxes on fossil fuels.
Again, policymakers are setting ambitious CO₂ reduction targets in many key regions, and they are aware they need to back them up with pro-zero emission measures. All in all, I am therefore very confident that all three FACTORS will be in place over the coming years. Having said that, it is not a surprise that the transformation will take place at different speeds in different regions. That's because the transformation depends on the three FACTORS we just talked about, and they are developing at different speeds around the globe. In North America, for example, we expect a ZEV adoption rate for up to 40% in classes 6-8 by 2030. In Europe, we expect an adoption rate of up to 60% in the heavy-duty segments.
In Euro VII, Europe city bus segments, we expect up to 100%, and in Japan, we see ZEV adoption rates of up to 20% by 2030. As you can see, there are quite significant differences among the various regions, and that's why, once again, flexibility is key. As an OEM, you have to be able to drive the transformation at different speeds in different regions, and that's exactly what we do. We are driving the transformation, what we call the speed of right. We are ramping up ZEV production in sync with the market momentum. One success factor here is that we are able to produce all our trucks on the same production line, be it diesel, be it battery, or be it hydrogen.
Our customers, therefore, can be sure that we will be able to deliver the right products with the right volumes at the right point of time to meet their needs. In a minute, Andreas Gorbach will have more details on our technology strategy and how it creates customer value and scale. Let me conclude this topic with an ambitious goal we set ourselves. At Daimler Truck, we have the ambition to be the ZEV leader in most of our focus markets by 2030. This shows very clearly, at Daimler Truck, we do not see the transformation to zero emission as a threat, we see it as an opportunity. The next factor of our winning formula is our heavy-duty focus.
Heavy-duty is where we have scale and industry-leading position. We are executing for our active portfolio management to further strengthen this competitive advantage. This is the logic behind the intended merger of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors. That I mentioned earlier. This merger would form a strong player in Southeast Asia and Japan, where both brands have well-established positions. It would accomplish two more things in particular. First, the merged company would provide far greater economies of scale in the light-duty segment than Mitsubishi Fuso or Hino can achieve on their own. Second, we as Daimler Truck, would further increase the scale of our heavy-duty platforms for conventional drives, as for zero-emission drives, and even for electronics.
This is all you due, also due to the planned collaboration with Toyota on all technologies relevant for the transformation, especially on hydrogen-based drive systems. We are working alongside our Japanese partners with the clear goal of implementing this proposed merger by the end of 2024, and we'll provide further updates over the next months. I want to reinforce one last point in this respect. This proposed merger clearly shows that we are willing to take far-reaching strategic decisions to further unlock the potential of Daimler Truck. We do what it takes to achieve our ambitions. Before we continue, let's hear from Karl Deppen, our CEO of Trucks Asia, how he sees our plans for Mitsubishi Fuso and our current business development in Asia.
Hello, I'm Karl Deppen, Head of Daimler Truck Asia. Let me tell you how we are contributing to Daimler Truck's transformation for sustainable growth. You all have heard the news about Daimler Truck's planned collaboration with Toyota. With this, we intend to accelerate the development of advanced technologies. We also announced the potential merger of Mitsubishi Fuso with Toyota's subsidiary, Hino Motors. With this exciting move, we aim to bring even better value to our truck customers, to suppliers and dealers, and at the same time, safeguard the return to our shareholders in the future. The new company will leverage on its Japanese roots, the Asian heritage, and the global reach to tackle the transformation in Asia. On top of significantly increased scale, our combined resources and expertise means that we will be better equipped to offer our customers transportation solutions that meet their needs today and tomorrow.
We will be able to invest in the development of even more high-tech products and solutions, especially as we aim to transition to zero emission vehicles also in Asia. Given the expected growth prospects of our industry, we are confident that this could lead to significant long-term shareholder value. Our operations in India and China will also be instrumental drivers for sustainable growth. In India, BharatBenz continues to grow amongst the competition. Here, we see further strategic potential for the BharatBenz brand, and we see potential in India as global hub for R&D services, shared services, IT services, and so on, for Daimler Truck's worldwide operations. China, the largest heavy-duty truck market in the world, offers significant future growth potential for Daimler Truck Asia. We successfully launched on time, the Mercedes-Benz Actros made in China for China, under very challenging post-COVID market conditions.
Through our joint venture, BFDA, we are confident to meet our customers' expectations in the advanced heavy-duty truck market. We are excited and confident for the future to grasp the opportunities ahead of us and to elevate Daimler Truck Asia to the next level.
The next winning factor where we have a very strong position is autonomous. All of us at Daimler Truck are excited about the huge potential of this technology. We are convinced that Autonomous Trucking can become a rapidly growing, high-margin business that solves real customer problems, and that is not a vague scenario for some distant future, it is a very concrete scenario for the second half of this decade. Use cases are most obvious today in large, uniform, on-highway markets, such as North America. As Daimler Truck, we are in a perfect position to play a major role in this market through our dual track strategy. We have a captive solution through Torc Robotics and a non-captive solution with Waymo. Our Torc solution is a fully integrated product with a virtual driver on board and optimized for hub-to-hub trucking.
You can see one of the trucks of Torc, of Torc's test fleet, here right next to me. Waymo, on the other hand, integrates its virtual driver technology into the chassis we provide. The same basis for both solutions is our redundant, autonomous-ready Freightliner Chassis. The great thing about this dual track approach is this: it benefits our customers, as they have maximum flexibility, and it benefits Daimler Truck because we have two very promising ways into this very attractive market of the future. Let's now take a quick look at the progress we are making with our Torc solution. We are advancing very well in every aspect of this great and complex mission. We are continuously expanding the capabilities of our virtual driver. We do that through internal growth, but also with the acquisition of Algolux, a specialist for object recognition based on artificial intelligence.
Torc is set to start testing our industry-first, autonomous-ready Cascadia. Together, we focus on developing the vehicle platform for its commercial launch. We have ongoing pilot tests with Schneider and C.R. England, two major U.S. carriers. Our trucks are doing great: 100% on-time deliveries and zero accidents. Last but not least, we are taking Torc's organization to the next level by building out its executive leadership team and by growing talent in key areas. Much on my part on Autonomous Driving and how we intend to take advantage of the enormous potential there in zero in autonomous transportation, to the benefits of our customers and our shareholders. Jochen Goetz will explain later how Autonomous Trucking offers an additional opportunity for our 2030 ambition.
Let's conclude this topic with the perspective of Joanna Buttler, Head of our Autonomous Technology Group, and Peter Vaughan Schmidt, CEO of Torc Robotics. Let's roll the video.
Hello, my name is Joanna Buttler, I'm the Head of the Autonomous Technology Group at Daimler Truck. With a promise of more efficiency, safety, and a highly attractive business model, Autonomous Trucks will benefit everyone: customers, society, and shareholders. At Daimler Truck, we have the right strategies, strong partners, a top-notch team, and best-in-class network to unlock the value of Autonomous Driving. It all starts with a safe and reliable vehicle platform. Our autonomous-ready Cascadia is equipped with state-of-the-art technology to safely execute the command of any Level 4 driving system. We are making great progress and are now building our development vehicles on our series production line. This means our partners will get even more mature trucks to develop their systems. Peter and I are really excited to see the next generation running in Torc's test fleet soon.
Hello, my name is Peter Vaughan Schmidt, CEO of Torc Robotics. In lockstep with Daimler Truck, we are developing an Autonomous Trucking solution designed for rapid installation and scaling by 2027, and purpose-built for the autonomous-ready Cascadia platform. Torc's Autonomous Driving software has already proven to safely navigate on highways, surface streets, ramps, and turns at controlled intersections. We continue to innovate, adding new features by safely testing via intensive simulation, as well as on closed courses and public roads. By pushing the boundaries of technology, we are combining world-class architecture, innovative software, and hardware that will transform autonomous hub-to-hub trucking and solve one of the most difficult engineering challenges of our lifetime. I'm excited to lead Torc as we drive the future of Freight.
We now come to the final factor of our winning formula, that is ESG. ESG adds further momentum to our sustainable transformation. Our ESG framework is becoming more and more integrated into our group and our strategy, first and foremost, into our culture, our daily work. There are concrete measures and achievements in every part of this framework. Just a few examples: regarding clean products, we already talked about our ever-increasing zero emission portfolio. Regarding clean production, our European production sites are already achieved CO₂ neutrality last year, in part by sourcing electricity from solar, wind, and hydropower plants. We're aiming to make our plants in the U.S., Japan, and India, CO₂ neutral by 2025. Regarding the clean supply chain, Mercedes-Benz Trucks strives to handle delivery traffic to its largest truck plant in Wörth, Germany, entirely with the zero emission vehicles as soon as possible.
Regarding our people, we want to be an employer of choice and foster a sense of belonging for all employees. We set up diversity, equity, and Inclusion Advisory Boards to help us with this journey. Regarding compliance, we launched our Daimler Truck Code of Conduct and have enrolled it across all our global organizations by the end of 2022 already. Regarding traffic safety, this has been in our DNA for decades. In terms of safety, we have regularly set industry standards. Europe is usually the front runner, and we then roll out new systems around the globe at record speeds. All our trucks in here today are perfect examples for how we bring leading safety systems to the [audio distortion]. I want to mention a few feature.
Our Western Star 57X and our Freightliner eCascadia, for example, are equipped with our Active Brake Assist 5. This systems is able to detect moving and stationary objects and to determine if braking is necessary. Our SuperTruck II has a MirrorCam, mirrorless camera system instead of the usual big mirrors. This significantly increases the driver's visibility and hereby also safety. Finally, our autonomous-ready Cascadia represents the future of traffic safety. Autonomous Trucking will not only take efficiency to the next level, it will do the same with safety. First, autonomous trucks will have redundant systems, and secondly, their virtual driver will never get tired and never lose focus. In sum, we remain fully committed to ESG, and we are proud that we achieved good results in all relevant sustainable ratings. Toward the end of my presentation, I now have a great finale for you.
Far, you have been aware of our vision to deliver at least 10% return on sales in sunny conditions by 2025. Now you have heard how confident we are as Daimler Truck about our continued transformation path as we are heading in the second half of this decade. I now want to put a figure on this confidence. We are confident that by 2030, we can achieve a return of sales of 12% and more. This figure is a result of diligent calculations and planning. We included everything we are planning for in this coming years in terms of measures, products, and solutions. 12% ROS means we are ready to take Daimler Truck to a new next level.
This is all more true as we expect our revenue to increase significantly and in parallel by about 40%-60%, and with both figures increasing significantly, revenue and return on sales, our EBIT, should increase very significantly. I think all of this clearly shows we are very serious about unlocking our profit potential, and we are very well underway. We are fully committed to make Daimler Truck an even more profitable company, generating even more value for our shareholders. In conclusion, let me briefly summarize the many things we have going on at Daimler Truck. We are making our company more resilient through our self-help measures, our services, and our customer solutions. We are creating shareholder value through our flexible approach to ZEV ramp-up and through active portfolio management. We are increasing our guidance for 2023.
We are firmly on track to deliver 10% ROS and more by 2025. We will not stop there. We will develop an even more ambitious plan for 2030. We're going for that at full speed. We are fully committed to capturing all opportunities associated with the historic transition to zero emissions. As you can see, this is a very special time for Daimler Truck. It is a very special time to be leading such a great business. It is a perfect time to transform Daimler Truck for sustainable growth to the benefit of our customers and our shareholders. Thank you very much. Now over to you, Andreas.
Yeah. Thank you, Martin, and welcome also from my side. I'm glad to be here today to provide you an update on Daimler Truck's technology strategy. Within our last Capital Market Days, I already laid out the strategy and the transformation plans for Daimler Truck. Today, I will provide you an update on how we progress and how this can improve the business of our customers, while we become more sustainable and profitable. At the end of the day, the success of our customers is the core of our success. If technology creates value for their business, they win, and we win. Let us start with the voice of a very special customer, Mark Rourke, President and CEO of Schneider.
At Schneider, we hold ourselves to high performance standards, that extends to our key strategic suppliers. Every day, we put 10,000 company trucks on the road in service of our customers, for the last 25 years, Daimler Truck has been our primary provider, they've earned it. They earned it through great product innovation and a focus on total cost of ownership. I use the word strategic purposefully. We are highly integrated, not only through the engineering of the equipment, but also all the way up through our senior operational leadership, that partnership has endured through multiple business cycles, freight cycles, and changes of leadership between the two organizations. That's one of the things we greatly appreciate about the Daimler partnership. Our relationship continues to evolve, now we're embracing the future as we start to move away from diesel products to zero-emission vehicles.
We've had the great opportunity to test in the commercial customer experience trucks and provide our feedback. Now we're starting to take production vehicles of the eCascadia and bring those into our operations in Southern California. We do so because we're confident we're not only getting a great truck, but we're getting the Daimler expertise to help us make sure we're successful by managing that entire ecosystem: charging, software, and integrating with the governmental agencies. Whether it's increasing fuel efficiency, adopting new safety technologies on our road to autonomous vehicles, or the zero-emission vehicle technologies of today and tomorrow, we are excited to partner with Daimler Truck as together we start to shape the future of transportation and trucking.
Mark is absolutely right. I highly appreciate the clear statements. This is exactly what we aim for. Technology in a truck always has the purpose to create value for our customers, to increase the value of the asset called truck in their books. This is how we tick along the complete value chain. This is how we plan, innovate, engineer, purchase, produce, sell, and service. We do not build to build, we build to solve. Be it in a long-haul truck in the U.S., the city bus in São Paulo, the mining truck in Indonesia, the vocational truck in China, or the heavy-duty construction or distribution truck in Europe, the success of our customers translates into the success of Daimler Truck, and thus ultimately into shareholder value. There is another important lever to do so.
Technology also allows Daimler Truck to create scale, be it in our global vehicle portfolio or be it with partners. We aim to combine both with our technology strategy, value creation for our customers and creating scale for us, such that we leverage best technology to create shareholder value. The two technology fields that fit best to these attributes which provide the highest differentiation to the customer and the biggest scales for us are two: on the one side, the propulsion system, the power to drive, and on the other side, it is everything related to electronics and software, the intelligence to drive. Both have an impact on every puzzle piece of the total cost of ownership equation of the customer, and both can be developed once and then deployed in all products of Daimler Truck and beyond. How to approach this?
The answer lies in four global platforms. For power to drive, we will continue to offer the best TCO with the best technology fit, depending on the transportation task and ecosystem, be it diesel, battery, or hydrogen power drives. For intelligence to drive, we will continue to differentiate with software, which is delivered rapidly with high quality and tailor-made for the use case. All platforms are based on a commonality concept to scale in our trucks over different brands and regions and carry the potential to be shared with partners that scale even beyond Daimler Truck. Let us go through the platforms one by one, Start with the one which laid the foundation of the company's success over the last century, and that is diesel.
We have just completed the rollout of our latest generation heavy-duty diesel platform worldwide, which provides yet another efficiency push and CO₂ reduction, and we are already working on the next evolution to come in the second half of the decade. We are convinced that during this decade, many transportation tasks on this planet will still depend on diesel, as long as the infrastructure and the ecosystem and the economic viability are not given for zero emission. Until then, we want these transportation tasks to be solved with the cleanest and most efficient diesel propulsion. We give the heavy-duty diesel platform yet another efficiency push, and it will certainly comply with the upcoming emission regulations. Nevertheless, and irrespective of speed, with decarbonization of transportation, diesel volumes will eventually decline.
It is even more important than before to prioritize capital allocation and to create scale whenever there is an opportunity. Like I announced last time and like Martin said, we disinvest on the medium-duty side by leveraging our partnership with Cummins. This is ongoing. We will not invest in our captive medium-duty product for upcoming emission steps. Last time, we also announced that on the heavy-duty side, we are actively searching for partners to scale on our platform. Today, we already have three opportunities to do so. First, we started the localization via our JV with Foton in China, such that the localized Mercedes Truck will also enable to scale with the propulsion system in China. This is growth in our own portfolio. Second, our partnership with DEUTZ enables scaling into segments beyond our core truck business.
The third opportunity builds upon our global diesel platform by burning hydrogen instead of diesel. I will talk about this later. We are convinced that this list of opportunities will continue. To sum it up, our strategy for diesel is clear: We focus on the profitable heavy-duty segment while continuously consolidating in the ramp-down. Moving now to the time in the aftermath of diesel, moving to zero-emission propulsion systems. As you already know, we strongly believe that there will be not just a one-size-fits-all approach anymore. We do strongly believe in the complement of battery and hydrogen. To better understand this, let me offer you three perspectives. The 1st perspective is the technical view, the engineer. Yes, technically, one can solve all transportation tasks with just one technology. It could be either battery or hydrogen.
Surely, with some quite heavy trade-offs, as for payload, packaging range, but technically it's feasible. The second perspective is already much more important: the customer view. If we talk to the customers around the globe, they confirm it depends. You know how professional they are and how they calculate to gain every cent. Depending on the use case, the relevance of payload and range, the energy cost, the infrastructure, the regulations, the whole ecosystems, sometimes battery and sometimes hydrogen will be the better choice in terms of total cost of ownership, in terms of the economic optimum. By the way, I see often quotes referring to the energy efficiency of battery versus hydrogen in the truck, and yes, battery vehicles have a better energy conversion in the truck itself. This is the correct answer, yet to the wrong question.
For the answer to the right question, what's best for the customer and the environment, this gives you only a small puzzle piece, but certainly not the complete picture. This brings me to the third, and maybe most important perspective, the infrastructure view. Here we talk two things: the charging itself, the hardware, and the availability of energy in general. Let us look at the latter one and take Europe as an example. Today, Europe imports approximately 60% of its energy, not electricity, energy, and it is done mainly by oil, gas, and coal. This has to go away as we decarbonize. Now we have two options to do so. Number one, we replace it by locally produced green energy. Clear message, this is not possible unless we switch to massive nuclear power.
While this is partially happening, it's fair to conclude that it might rather partially substitute locally produced gray energy, but never the complete import. Leaves us with number two, we import green energy. Many countries, many regions, are in the very same situation like Europe. As a matter of fact, also in a decarbonized world, we will trade energy on global scale like we do it today, and certainly it's not going to be electricity. We need a chemical bond, CO₂-neutral energy carrier. We need molecules to store and transport, and green hydrogen is one very good way to do so. Hence, to comply with the Paris Agreement, we anyhow need green hydrogen, irrespective of mobile devices and irrespective of transportation, and at large scale, at competitive cost, and there is enough sun and water to do so.
To sum it up, if both battery electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles are technically feasible, if there are clear cases where one or the other offers better profit for the customer, and if both energy sources are anyhow required, it becomes evident why we do both. Now, before we look at the battery and hydrogen solutions in more detail, let us first elaborate on the time dimension. In that regard, Martin already showed two things. First, the speed is rather uncertain and depending on external parameters like infrastructure and energy prices. Second, the product will not be the limiting factor, and we already have a broad portfolio of battery electric vehicles in our core markets on the road. All these vehicles are so far based on upscaling past car technology, which is the right thing to do in order to be fast to market for rather low volumes.
Today, we benefit from scale of the past car business that decarbonizes earlier. These trucks already create customer value, like Mark described in his video. The time for larger volumes and global truck scale will come in the second half of the decade. This will certainly require and justify dedicated, purpose-built platforms without compromises. We merge all the learnings from the early zero emission phase with our truck know-how of the last 100 years. The upcoming launch of the eActros 600 next year is exemplary for this first step into this era on the battery side. Thereafter, we will roll out a truckified modular global platform. I will talk about this in a minute.
In parallel, we will start the rollout of our first hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by roughly 2028, with a platform that we share even beyond Daimler Truck, and I will talk about this in a minute as well. Let us double-click on the future battery platform and start with the customer. Certainly, there are many different cell chemistries and concepts on the market and in development, and they all have their individual trade-offs and sweet spots. Thereby, looking at the specific requirements of a truck, it is not the highest energy density and not the best driving dynamics that are decisive, but rather high vehicle lifetime, safety, and cost. For example, if you were to choose between NMC and LFP, like depicted here, the LFP family is clearly more favorable for truck use cases.
With an intelligent pack design, one can even overcompensate the disadvantages of LFP as for energy density on cell level. In addition, the pack needs to be modular. It needs a tailored vehicle integration. It needs to be optimized for the transportation task and still provide scale. This is why we decided to strive for vertical integration. The intelligent integration of cells and battery management in a pack, and packs in a truck is key, not only for customer value, but also for scale. With one global pack platform and one global cell family, we aim to cover more than 80% of our heavy-duty and medium-duty portfolio worldwide. Thereby, we aim to leverage different sources to comply with local content requirements and to balance dependencies. The required partnerships are already in place or are being set up. With Manz AG, we have the right partnership for machinery equipment.
With CATL, we have a strategic partnership for cell sourcing. We are about to finalize a partnership that we aim to announce soon. This partnership will focus on jointly localizing cells in the U.S. Stay tuned on that one. As for the fuel cell platform, we have today significantly less vehicles on the road. A conscious decision, as we expect infrastructure to develop slower than electric charging. Our experience is huge. It is based on almost 30 years of R&D in small series projects. We combined all the know-how of the Daimler Truck within the Truck division product spin. The time and knowledge allows us to truckify the fuel cell system from the get-go. Here, the requirements for longevity, efficiency, and cost lead to a different design and concept compared to passenger cars.
Also here, commonality and partnerships are of essence. Our JV with Volvo is gaining more and more traction. cellcentric will provide an unmatched system, tailor-made for the trucking application. By the way, there is no limitation as for other customers. We aim to use the product in all brands. Mercedes Trucks are already on the road. The first Cascadia is about to be built up as a prototype, and there is even more to say about hydrogen. You might have noticed that lately, we more and more talk about battery and hydrogen power solutions rather than battery and fuel cell electric solutions. That's because there's a thing we have not been vocal about yet, and that's the hydrogen combustion engine. So far, this technology has an unclear regulatory status in many regions of the world.
Discussions are progressing, and some regulators aim to classify it as zero emission or zero carbon, as they well understand both the economic and geopolitical chances associated with it, on the one side, and its negligible impact to the environment on the other side. From a technical perspective, the hydrogen combustion engine is a slightly modified diesel combustion engine, while the rest of the drivetrain remains the same. It provides both customer value and scale. On the one side, the customer benefits from similar packaging, similar payload compared to diesel, and a low vehicle price compared to battery or fuel cell power trucks. This can be more important for the customer than energy consumption. For example, in applications that have high power demand, moderate mileage and packaging constraints or special bodybuilder requirements. On the other side, we benefit from scale.
Most relevant core engine parts, assets, and established suppliers are the same as for diesel, and the infrastructure can be the same as for fuel cell. We are prepared to change gears here from advanced engineering to serious development. Thereby, partnering does make sense as well, and it is already in the making. As Martin explained earlier, depending on the final rulemaking, Hydrogen ICE can be a third complement in the future of propulsion, resulting in one, pure electric and two, hydrogen power solutions. Irrespective of the technology choice, one thing is clear: with zero emission, the increase in cost of a truck is here to stay. Let me better explain this with the walk from a diesel truck to, in this example, a battery electric truck.
We remove all diesel components like engine system, transmission, driven axle, tank, and instead include the electric drivetrain and further electric components like converters or charging units. Depending on the transportation task, the cost already can increase slightly or significantly. For example, if two electric driven axles instead of one are required. Second, we add the battery pack itself. Again, the increase strongly depends on the transportation task. In this case, mainly range. Do we talk 100 mi-300 mi range? Do we talk 200 kWh-600 kWh battery size? Two general statements can be made. We have to continue to focus on reducing cost of eDrive and battery by intelligent design and scale. And as already said, the increase in cost is here to stay. How will this affect our customers?
How will it affect total cost of ownership, TCO? Let us focus first on the bars in the middle. This is how today the majority of TCO cases look like when we compare diesel with ZEV. Cost of the driver stays the same, repair and maintenance can be expected on eye-level. No surprise. Sure, as just described, with the increase in purchase price, the depreciation part of the TCO calculation has to go up. Comes the biggest and yet most uncertain part, cost of energy. Clearly, it again varies with the transportation task and the mileage, yet the even bigger uncertainty comes with the energy price itself. Today, without subsidies in many regions of the world, this leads to a higher TCO if we compare zero-emission with diesel. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the biggest inhibitor for zero-emission truck sales.
In other words, achieving TCO parity is the biggest sensitivity, whether zero-emission trucking creates value for our customers or not. As a result, it is the single biggest lever to change the speed of decarbonization. It is, and will be mainly driven by cost of energy. The cost of green energy needs to go down, and/or the cost for CO₂ has to go up. Like Martin explained in his multiplication, we need the Z EV products, yes, our job, but also we need a viable economic case for our customers. Then comes the third factor of the multiplication, and this is infrastructure. To conclude with zero-emission propulsion, let me shortly elaborate on the multitude of initiatives and partnerships that we push in order to help solving the chicken and egg problem.
In every market in which we already sell electric vehicles, we offer our customers consulting to find the best solution for the zero emission ecosystem, including the respective charging hardware for their depots, for which we have multiple partners. As for roadside charging and refueling, we are investing together with partners in two joint ventures: Milence in Europe, together with TRATON and Volvo, Greenlane in the U.S., together with NextEra and BlackRock. Both certainly not enough to build the complete required amount of stations, but enough to kickstart roadside charging and hydrogen refueling. Beyond that, we build on several other partnerships to develop technologies, to agree on standards, and to create showcases that one can copy.
It is clear that we will not become an energy provider by doing so, but to make the transformation to zero emission a reality, it needs a strong initial push to create momentum and to lay the foundation for its acceptance, and we are committed to contribute. With that, we move our attention from the power to drive to the intelligence to drive. Our global software and electronic platform is the energy-agnostic foundation for the intelligent and efficient operation of all vehicles. Let me start with the generic layers of that platform. On top, there's the application layer, which is the layer visible to the customer. It contains all kinds of features, for example, safety functions. This is where differentiation happens, where we create customer value, either by improving the product itself or by improving the business system of the customer.
For Daimler Truck, we aim to scale here in two dimensions. First, we can develop apps once and then deploy in our complete new vehicle portfolio. Second, with over-the-air capability, we can also deploy it to trucks already on the road. The middle layer is the operating system, the system software that manages both computing, hardware, and software resources, and provides common services and APIs for applications. The bottom layer is the computing hardware itself, the control units, and the last two layers stay invisible for the customer. They must run stable, they do not offer differentiation with features. They can offer massive scale as they can be harmonized in our complete portfolio. To add a little bit more color to this, let me give you an overview on what we will launch starting 2024.
Starting next year, we will roll out numerous next evolution vehicle applications. For example, next level active safety with the Active Sideguard Assist, not only warning, but actively braking, so if, for example, a cyclist is in the vehicle's blind spot while turning. Next level digital HMI with speech control and full integration of Android Auto and Apple CarPlay. Next level connectivity features for fleet owner data access, predictive maintenance, and advanced over-the-air updates. All these features are enabled by an upgrade of the most relevant computing units. That means we do a big step in CPU power and bandwidth. Certainly, this evolution will make our trucks ready for what's on the horizon this decade. Ready for next level of cybersecurity, ready for the next generation of zero-emission trucks, and not to forget, ready for Autonomous Driving. The vision goes even one step further.
It is likely that also in trucking, software will be eventually the number one differentiator to create customer value. Key will be to deliver software rapidly with high quality and tailor-made to the use case. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to make the truck a programmable device. The key lever that we pull to get there is completely decoupling the three layers. The applications can run on a standard OS connected with standard API. By that, development of product and business improvements can be done in fast software cycles by us or third parties and then flashed over-the-air. On the hardware side, the evolution continues to a more centralized, powerful, high compute architecture. By that, the scales on the OS and hardware side can go even beyond Daimler Truck. Hence, partnerships can play an important role here as well.
Let me summarize how we will elevate Daimler Truck's technology leadership. We continue to keep diesel competitive and clean while focusing on the high profit, heavy-duty segment. We decarbonize our portfolio with battery electric and hydrogen power drives. We digitalize our vehicles and make them a smartphone on wheels, and by all that, we create customer value by translating purpose-built technology into TCO. We create scale for Daimler Truck through maximum commonality and strong partnerships, and we create shareholder value and keep the world moving. Thank you. With this, I hand over to Jochen.
Thanks, Andreas. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome from me as well. As Martin outlined in his opening presentation, we are on the way to achieve our midterm financial ambition of above 10% adjusted return on sales for the industrial business in sunny conditions. We see further potential to uplift profitability above 12% in 2030. Before we start, one important piece of information regarding the upcoming financials. You all have seen the announcement at the end of May about a memorandum of understanding with Toyota to merge Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors. This deal is yet to close. Therefore, all of the financial analysis and metrics are based on the current structure of Daimler Truck. All potential synergies of this merger are not included in the numbers we will show.
Here is an overview on how we will leverage financial strength going forward. There are five important chapters. First, our current momentum is strong, and based on that, we have upgraded our 2023 guidance. Second, we are relentlessly focused on our self-help measures, which will ensure that we will deliver on our 2025 ambition, and we will deliver. Third, we will take advantage of growth opportunity in both existing and new businesses, such as ZEV and Autonomous. Fourth, our active portfolio management and return on capital steering model will ensure that we only commit capital to attractive products and growth opportunities, as well as exit businesses where we cannot achieve our return on capital hurdle rates. While the path towards ZEV transition remains uncertain, we are ready to maximize the opportunities as they become possible.
Fifth, our business will remain highly cash generative, and our already strong balance sheet will allow us to pay attractive dividends and return excess cash to shareholders via share buybacks. If with that, we remain totally committed to driving shareholder value. In sum, these factors shall enable us to grow our business significantly with a revenue increase of 40% - 60% from 2025 - 2030, and to capture growth opportunities that led to an adjusted return on sales ambition of above 12% for the industrial business in sunny conditions. There's a lot of good news, and there are a lot of great things ahead. Now, I will walk you through the details of this roadmap. I will start with the update of the market assumptions and the guidance of 2023.
Demand has continued to stay strong and we expect this to continue during 2023. As we had anticipated, the supply constraints that were very challenging oter the last two years have steadily been improving. While supply isn't yet back to normal, we see now, compared to the end of the first quarter, a more stable outlook for the rest of the year. As a consequence, we were upgrading our market expectations for our core markets. For North America, we now expect a market of 290,000-330,000 units. For Europe, we now expect a market of 300,000-340,000 units. Taking these new market expectations, how does this impact our 2023 financial guidance?
Today, we are increasing our sales ambition to a range of 530,000-550,000 units, with the extra sales mainly coming from Europe and Asia. In consequence, our group revenue guidance increases to EUR 56 billion-EUR 58 billion. For the industrial business, our adjusted return on sales guidance increases to a range of 8.5%-10%, backed by all industrial segments. The main drivers are stronger core markets, pricing, and services. Our CapEx and R&D guidance has been changed to a slight increase for the year. We have tweaked up transformational spend and investments in our IT landscape. Nevertheless, free cash flow generation will still be stronger than expected and is now guided to increase significantly. Through our active portfolio management, we are demonstrating our capital discipline and converting higher EBIT into higher free cash flow.
Let's look at the segment level. We are increasing the guidance of adjusted return on sales on each industrial segment. As Martin already mentioned, we plan with the following adjusted return on sales ranges for our segments: 11%-13% for Trucks North America, 8%-10% for Mercedes-Benz, 4%-6% for Trucks Asia, and 3%-5% for Daimler Buses. The guidance for Financial Services remains unchanged. We obviously don't have final Q2 numbers. Based on the better-than-expected supply chain situation and the positive results we have seen in April and May, we expect a strong second quarter. This underpins our confidence in raising our full year 2023 guidance today. To sum it up, the guidance for 2023 shows we are clearly delivering positive momentum towards our ambition.
The further execution of our self-help measures is key to achieve our ambition. I will talk more about it on the next page. Let me briefly talk about Truck Asia. As you know, Truck Asia consists of Mitsubishi Fuso, our operations in India, and our joint venture, BFDA, in China. We are currently facing a really depressed market situation in China, and that's the reason why we have a quite big gap compared to our 2025 sunny ambition. Our Mitsubishi Fuso operations are on track to achieve the ambition. Regarding Daimler Buses, keep in mind, the European coach market is still on a rather low market level compared to 2019. We see clear signs of recovery towards 2024, volume and profitability-wise. To achieve our 2025 ambition, the focus areas are service push and further fixed cost optimization.
If the favorable market conditions and higher demands and supply continue towards 2025, we see further upside potential. Let's talk about our self-help measures. As already announced at our last Capital Market Day, our 2025 ambitions are based on three self-help measures. That does not mean we are not going for opportunities on the market side, but we want to improve our financial resilience and prioritize financial rigor and strict discipline on things we can control. However, as you all know, some of the ambitions are easier to achieve than others. On service revenues, we are making excellent progress. We already achieved 15% growth between 2019 and 2022. We have done this by exploiting our existing after-sales business and by tapping into new service opportunities. One example is our e-commerce platform at Daimler Truck North America. Here, we reached already $1 billion in revenue.
We are even more confident that we will exceed our 20% growth ambitions by 2025 and upgrade our growth ambition to 25%. On fixed cost, we have made good progress, and it has been very encouraging to see good results in several areas of Daimler Truck. However, as we said back at our full year results disclosure, we are not fully satisfied with what we have achieved and are focusing on implementing further initiatives to ensure that we deliver on our 15% fixed cost reduction target. On CapEx and R&D efficiency, we are on track. We are laser-focused on only investing on key projects and prioritizing large profit pool opportunities within each segment. Our active portfolio management approach is clearly helping to maintain this discipline, and our use of partnerships for powertrains has ensured the right level of investment by Daimler Truck.
Our underlying capital plan is on track to achieve our ambition in 2025. We will see some one-time investment in logistic infrastructure at Mercedes-Benz in 2024, mainly related to the spin-off. With our good progress on service revenue and discipline, CapEx and R&D, we are doubling down our effort on fixed cost. The entire group is committed to achieve the 50% reduction ambition until 2025. We have faced challenges in fixed costs, partly due to the new functions capabilities we created as part of our separation from the passenger car business. On this slide, you see the major initiatives that have already cut costs in the past. They will also cut costs in the future. As you see in the numbers, active portfolio management is a major tool also for reducing fixed cost.
We already achieved a lot, we are planning to reduce our fixed cost even further. Examples are the restructuring of Mercedes-Benz do Brasil or the relocation of our body and white shop from Germany to Czech Republic at Daimler Buses. With that, we are continuously reducing complexity and focus on big profit pools. We recently announced our latest decision to sell one of our three Brazilian plants in Campinas. To reduce running SG&A costs, we leverage our global footprint, including India, Turkey, and Mexico, and bundle service operations in competence centers. We also think beyond and make use of outsourced shared services, for an example, in the accounting and controlling area. With the project tech-led strategy, we made a con-- within Mercedes-Benz, we are increasing our efficiency and optimizing our footprint in all areas.
One example is the sales organization, where we analyze our European retail network with the aim to invest in strategic locations and divest less profitable ones. We are also evaluating on a global level in which markets we keep our own-
Pretty successful. Now we're doubling down on increasing our resilience. We know we're in a cyclical industry. We want to be sure that we're prepared to perform even in a weaker market. We're doing two major things. First, we're growing our service business. In 2022, the service revenue, we've put a lot of focus on our top 400 spare parts assortment, and we see that we have increased the availability and that drives both parts sales and customer satisfaction. The second topic we're working on, you just learned from Jochen. We remain fully committed to reducing our fixed cost by 15% at group level by 2025. Of course, at Mercedes-Benz Trucks, we're a major contributor to that. To name a few initiatives, we are restructuring Mercedes-Benz do Brasil.
There, we are outsourcing non-core activities like front axles, medium-duty transmissions, logistics, et cetera, at our factory in São Bernardo do Campo. This is obviously not an easy task. These measures actually affect 1,750 employees, and we're also not renewing the contracts of approximately 1,000 temporary employees. We're also working on our fixed cost at all levels, in all functions, in all regions, with the ultimate goal to become more resilient. This is a priority for me, for the Mercedes-Benz Trucks Team, and for Daimler Truck as a whole. We will deliver. We will become more resilient.
All dimensions, self-help measures helped us to improve our financial resilience, to lower our break-even point and become more profitable at lower volumes. Trucks and Buses are a cyclical industry. We want to be ready for the next downturn. We want to protect our cash flow, remain able to finance our growth, and provide returns to our shareholders. As you can see on the slide, progress has been strong. If there had been a rainy scenario in 2019, meaning a significant lower market volume, we would have achieved 0.8% adjusted return on sales for the industrial business. In 2022, the same reduced volume would have resulted in 4% adjusted return on sales for the industrial business.
This is already a big step in the right direction, there is more to come to achieve more than 6% adjusted return on sales in such an environment. Much for the current status of our 2025 Plan and the significant progress we have made towards achieving our ambitions. Now, I want to share how we are thinking about Daimler Truck and our financial performance towards 2030. Looking beyond 2025, we see multiple growth opportunities in our industry, and we are fully equipped to exploit these opportunities. This should translate into a 40%-60% increase in revenues between 2025 and 2030. At the same time, we will be relentlessly focused on cost discipline and capital allocation. I'm well aware that at this stage, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future penetration rate and technology mix of zero-emission technologies.
We as Daimler Truck are well prepared for any scenario, and we can use our size for scale advantages and flexibility. We see six main revenue drivers for Daimler Truck, and in the next few minutes, I will guide you through one by one. The first reason for a growing revenue from 2025 - 2030 are the growing markets. For our core markets, North America and Europe, we are expecting moderate growth, driven by a solid economic development and the demand for efficient transportation solutions. The change to environmentally friendly vehicles as well as infrastructure investments give additional tailwind for the market growth. Brazil is expected to see a market growth rate approximately twice that of North America and Europe. The solid trade activity, agricultural demand, and investment growth has a positive impact on the Brazilian truck demand. India will see significant total truck market volume increases.
India's truck market benefits from high GDP growth, improvement in the road infrastructure, and an ongoing sophistication of the economy. The second driver for an increasing revenue from 2025-2030 is our share of market ambition. As you all know, we have worked with the historical focus on volume growth and gaining market share. Therefore, we assume that the share of market stays more or less flat in the main regions, except of North America, India, and Japan. Here, we are confident to increase our market share based on our product strategy. In North America, we've increased our competitive offering in the heavy-duty vocational segment, as you see on the left side. With the introduction of all our new Western Star family, we are well positioned to capture considerably more share in the promising vocational market.
In India, we are aiming to be a podium player in the Indian heavy-duty truck industry by strengthening our core portfolio with further improved safety, reliability, and performance. With more than 300 dealerships and 400 suppliers generating a localization rate of 90%, India is strategically placed to support Daimler Truck in terms of domestic sales and as an export hub. In Japan, we are committed to further promoting the electrification of commercial vehicles in order to decarbonize road transportation in Asia and beyond. Mitsubishi Fuso is a pioneer in e-mobility with our eCanter and its ecosystem. Now, John will provide you more insights in our Trucks North America business.
Hi, I'm John O'Leary, President and CEO of Daimler Truck North America, the undisputed market leader here in North America. DTNA's continued success is, in large part, a result of our absolute dedication to delivering customer-focused products and services. When it comes to our on-highway products, like our flagship Freightliner eCascadia, we understand this intimately, and it's why that business has been so successful. To replicate that success, we recently introduced the Western Star X-Series, which is off to a strong start in the highly profitable and less cyclical vocational market. In addition, we updated our Freightliner M2 and SD lines with the new Plus Series of models last year. These trucks bring enhanced safety and productivity tools to the applications they serve and cover both vocational and on-highway segments.
The M2 also forms the basis of our eM2, which enters series production later this year and joins the Freightliner eCascadia already in customer operations. Those trucks are one half of the DTNA electric portfolio, which also includes the Thomas Built Buses Jouley, and the Freightliner Custom Chassis MT50e walk-in van chassis for final mile delivery. Both our growing electric and vocational lineup allows us to not merely defend, but also to expand on our undisputed market leadership, leaving us well positioned as we continue to strive, leading sustainable transportation here in North America.
A significant revenue growth driver to 2030 are the new vehicles that are positively impacted by a series of structural tailwinds for the group. ZEV sales will increase in absolute terms and as a percentage of our total unit sales. These products will have a higher revenue per unit, but we expect them to be still favorable from a total cost of ownership perspective for our customers. This, of course, depends on energy prices and varies obviously from segment to segment and region to region. Our ongoing pivot towards heavy duty will also have a positive impact on average selling prices. Another very important driver is service revenue. Further increasing our service is a key lever to improve our resilience and delivering a high return on capital employed.
We have already made progress, excellent progress since 2019, and are setting the ambition to increase service revenue for industrial business without autonomous by 50% from 2025-2030. To be clear on the definition, service revenue excludes financial services and autonomous. We group our service revenue opportunities in three main businesses. First, the service and part business remain the most important lever for our service revenue increase. We tackle the market by expanding our product portfolio and optimizing our service network. Key levers include the intelligent pricing of parts, further increasing the penetration of service contracts, including a higher technical coverage. Additionally, with the increasing number of connected trucks, we now, for the first time in a meaningful way, have also access to the second owners of the truck.
Last but not least, we are optimizing our logistics and building up a new global logistic hub in Halberstadt, Germany, which will significantly improve parts availability for Mercedes-Benz and improves uptime for our trucks. Second, ZEV ecosystem. This includes everything around charging, infrastructure, installation, consulting, and charging management system. We recently established, for an example, at Daimler Buses, a new legal entity to consult our customers holistically on how to set up their ZEV ecosystem. Third, digital services. These include fleet management, vehicle utilization, and tailored customer solutions. To name one example, we built the e-commerce platform Excelerator at Daimler Truck North America, which connects our customers to our distribution network and ensures easy and fast access to parts. This leads to a maximum uptime for our customers.
We see that a growing number of parts are being ordered online. We plan for a growing usage of our e-commerce platform. Daimler Truck sees a huge opportunity in Autonomous Trucking. We will tap into this opportunity with our majority stake in Torc and our strong cooperation with Waymo. Important to mention, that both virtual drivers are based on the same DTNA redundant chassis. We currently expect to start generating revenue in 2027 and to reach significant figures pretty fast. By 2030, we expect revenues of over EUR 3 billion and an EBIT of over EUR 1 billion. The software-driven business is a highly scalable and highly profitable market opportunity for Daimler Truck. With our dual-track approach, we believe we are well positioned to take advantage of this exciting market. A key underpinning of our service strategy is the ongoing ramp-up of our financial services business.
We expect significant growth of our asset base within Financial Services. Revenue is expected to double between 2025 and 2030, driven by the following aspects: We increase our penetration of the existing product portfolio and extend our product portfolio. For an example, we introduced pay-per-use dynamic lease and insurance solutions that adapt to changing customer needs and vehicle technologies. As the market sifts towards ZEVs, we have an opportunity to offer bundled product and solutions that cover not only the vehicles themselves, but also the necessary infrastructure and add-on services like charging. One example is our solution, FUSO Green Lease, that we offer to eCanter customers in Japan. In addition, we will provide full service solutions, including vehicle rental, maintenance, telematics, and fleet management. Now Stephan is going to give you more insights in our financial services business.
Hello, I'm Stephan Unger, CEO of Daimler Truck Financial Services, and we drive enduring customer relationships. We are fully on track to develop DTFS from a pure financial services company to a solution partner for our customers, with a position of differentiation and cost leadership. Our service strategy aims on accelerating our successful core business of traditional leasing, financing, and insurance products. We will provide new and additional solutions, for example, integrating services from all parties into bundles, offering full service and rental solutions, or, as some say, Truck-as-a-Service. We are as well adding solutions around connectivity and sustainable transportation, like Dynamic Lease, Green Lease, or e-infrastructure financing. We at DTFS carry risk, and to make our business robust, also in times of changing economic conditions, we build on our strengths. We actively manage our risk position to support our A credit rating target.
We aim to deliver a sustainable return on equity of above 14% by 2025 in sunny conditions, ensuring attractive profitability on a larger portfolio than today and contributing to the overall success of Daimler Truck. We will not stop there. Our ambition for 2030 is a return on equity of above 17% in sunny conditions. We plan to reach this with a full implementation of our service strategy, based on the fundamental shift to zero-emission vehicles, fully connected, and the transformation to a full service and solution provider. Overall, DTFS is well positioned to capture growth opportunities, as well in additional markets. With our investments, we are prepared to scale and continuously ensure operational efficiency, and we have formed a great team with a spirit to make a difference and to deliver.
We plan our EBIT adjusted for the industrial business to grow significantly. As you can see on the slide, volume is a relatively modest contributor. Significant growth come from contribution margins, mainly from Services and Autonomous. The significant growth of our business will also increase our fixed costs towards 2030. However, I can assure you that management of costs will remain our top priority. Overall, we are confident that in 2030, we can be a significant, larger, and also more profitable company, with an adjusted return on sales above 12% for the industrial business in a sunny scenario. What does it mean overall and for the segments?
We aim to not only be significantly more profitable in a sunny scenario, but also in a rainy scenario, meaning that we expect to have a higher resilience by 2030 compared to today and compared to our 2025 ambitions. The 2030 adjusted return on sales ambition for our industrial business will be above 12% in the sunny scenario and between 8% and 9% in a rainy scenario. This means the profitability we aim for in 2025 in fair scenario, we are aim for in 2030 in a rainy scenario, and even without Autonomous, we still plan to deliver an adjusted return on sales of above 10% in 2030 for the industrial business in sunny conditions.
The segment adjusted return on sales figures are as follows for 2030 in a sunny scenario: over 12% for Trucks North America and Mercedes-Benz, and 9% for Trucks Asia and Daimler Buses. Until now, we have talked a lot about profitability and return on sales. Let's now focus on how we allocate capital and maximize shareholder value with our return on capital steering model. Return on capital is a critical KPI for us when it comes to capital allocation decisions. All investment decisions are assessed through this lens, and the return on capital approach is even more important during the current ZEV transition, given the uncertainty regarding technologies, especially around powertrain. To ensure we can be held accountable, we are introducing ambitions for the pre-tax return on capital of 45% in 2025, and above 50% in 2030 for the industrial business in sunny conditions.
Our active portfolio management approach is a key tool in our return on capital steering model. We are identifying the highest return on capital opportunities on all levels, from product to segment level. Each of the business units is constantly assessed against return on capital criteria. If we do not see a realistic opportunity to achieve our return on capital ambition, we will consider all strategic options, and when necessary, we will make tough decisions. This has also been an important framework in our accelerated pivot towards heavy-duty. We have doubled down on heavy-duty, including the introduction of new products in attractive white spots, such as our new vocational truck, our Tourrider bus in North America, and our Mercedes-Benz Truck for China, produced in China. It also led to our partnership approach in medium duty with Cummins and DEUTZ, and the exit of several products.
In Brazil, we decided to decrease the level of vertical integration significantly and optimize our local footprint. Our recently proposed merger of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors, the truck business of Toyota, is a fantastic example of our active portfolio management strategy. The merger will create a company that will have significant scale in Japan and all over Asia, and will have the opportunity to collectively drive transformation to ZEV products. For Daimler Truck, it provides additional opportunities for our heavy-duty engine platform and underpins our prioritization and focus on the heavy-duty segment, where our global scale is a real competitive advantage. As already mentioned, we are confident to achieve a reduction by 2025 of our capital spend of 15% versus 2019. To achieve this ambition, we are constantly working on efficiency, increasing our partnership portfolio, and focusing on the most strategic areas.
In our financial guidance, we consider additional investments for the highly profitable Autonomous business, as well as differentiating e-components like battery cells. CapEx and R&D are controlled by our return on capital lens, and we fund the increased investments in ZEV from a dramatic ramp down in ICE investments. We keep our core CapEx and R&D at stable levels for 2030 compared to 2025, for the capital discipline of a return on capital steering and active portfolio management. We will provide more details about the potential new business opportunities when appropriate. Now, I want to focus on our cash generation, and how we want to allocate this cash to our shareholders. At Daimler Truck, we have already established a very strong cash position, with net industrial liquidity of EUR 7.5 billion at the end of 2022.
Our return on capital steering model and strict capital plan discipline means that we will continue to generate strong cash flows. Given our revenue and return on sales expectation, as well as our current dividend policy, this logically means that our net industrial liquidity will continue to build. Today, I see the business requiring between EUR 4 billion-EUR 6 billion in net industrial liquidity to strive for a single A credit rating and have sufficient liquidity in the business to withstand significant headwinds and to be able to execute our strategy. By the way, when I say EUR 4 billion-EUR 6 billion, I mean EUR 6 billion, but for a limited period of time, we could also operate with EUR 4 billion. Over time, as the business grows, the minimum liquidity requirement will gently increase, and we will provide updates to the market when appropriate.
We will not run a lazy balance sheet and do not plan to sit on cash for no reason. Now I will explain you how we plan to allocate our capital. Given this position of financial strength, we want to detail our capital allocation framework. Fundamentally, we will protect our strong balance sheet and invest in our operations for the CapEx and R&D plan that I spoke about earlier. On top of this normal CapEx and R&D, we will consider further transformational investments to support the ZEV transformation. As Martin said earlier, the pathway remains uncertain, but we want to ensure we are ready to capitalize as the opportunities arise, and we will invest to capture these opportunities. Next in the framework comes paying ordinary cash dividends.
We are proud to announce our first dividend as an independent company at our full year results disclosure of EUR 1.30 per share, a 40% payout ratio. We also will consider opportunistic M&A, but only if we see them as creating shareholder value and having the right return on capital potential. Excess liquidity beyond these requirements will be returned to the shareholders as share buybacks. Given what I have said over the last few slides, it will come as no surprise that we now consider Daimler Truck to have excess liquidity. Therefore, we are today announcing the launch of a share buyback program of up to EUR 2 billion. This program is set up to take up to 24 months. Given our capital allocation framework and financial ambitions, we do not expect this to be a one-off buyback program.
We have refined our dividend policy to reflect the cyclical nature of the truck industry. While we are working hard to reduce our earnings cyclicity, we are not fully immune to downturns. We see cash dividends like a river that has to flow constantly. I am pleased to announce that our dividend payout ratio will flex between 40% and 60%. We will pay out up to 60% in more rainy scenarios and maintain the 40% ratio in sunny scenarios, we aim to pay more stable dividends. In a nutshell, based on our existing financial strength, we leverage our growth opportunities to create an exciting and compelling vision for our business in 2030.
We are well on the way to achieve our above 10% adjusted return on sales ambition by 2025 for the industrial business in sunny conditions, and we are continuously working on our sell-off measures for 2025 and beyond. Our 2030 Plan is even more ambitious. With an acceleration of growth and an adjusted return on sales of above 12% in sunny conditions, and even more important, over 8% in rainy conditions for the industrial business. We will maintain our disciplined return on capital-based capital allocation approach. Through active portfolio management, we identifying the most strategic investment options in the profit pool of the future, but also the areas where we have to make tough decisions. Our business will remain highly cash generative, and we will further strengthen our already robust balance sheet. Excess cash will be returned to shareholders.
With our more flexible dividend policy, we aim to be a stable payer of dividends, and as announced today, we will start our first share buyback program for up to EUR 2 billion. Well, with that, thanks a lot, and now back to Martin for the concluding remarks.
Yeah, hello again, everyone, and thanks for your patience. Thanks for your attention, and no worries, I will not give another speech. I'm not going to repeat everything which is said. I just want to summarize things very briefly. We had a lot of exciting news to share with you today. We are raising our guidance for 2023 and now expect an adjusted return on sales for our industrial business from 8.5%-10%. We are fully on track to deliver our 10% ROS ambition for 2025. We are aiming for 12% costs and more by 2030. This is all more significant because our revenue, the reference value for the 12%, will be noticeably higher 2030 than in 2025.
We are initiating a share buyback program for up to EUR 2 billion over the next two years to make sure that our shareholders fully benefit from our successful development. All of this clearly shows at Daimler Truck, we are very confident about our way forward. We have talked about the reasons for this confidence in great detail in our presentations. Here are the most important points: We consistently implement our path measures regarding fixed cost, service, CapEx, and R&D. We continue to execute our active portfolio management, focusing on the biggest profit pools. We go for growth opportunities in existing markets and in attractive new markets, such as Autonomous Trucking. We have the right approach, not only to navigating the historic transition to zero emissions, but also capturing all the opportunities associated with it.
We pursue a dual technology strategy with batteries and hydrogen for maximum flexibility and customer value. We use global platforms and selected partnerships for maximizing scale and cost efficiency. In sum, Daimler Truck is on an exciting journey, and this journey has only just begun. We know exactly where we want to go, and we have a clear plan of how to get there. We will execute this plan to the benefits of our customers and our shareholders. We will make sure Daimler Truck is transforming for sustainable growth. Thank you.
Let's proceed with the Q&A session. Thank you, Martin, Jochen, and Andreas, for the very interesting and convincing comprehensive presentations. Thank you for now taking the questions. For our guests who are here at the SoWa Power Station, you will now have the chance to ask your questions. Just raise your hand, and I will then call you one at a time. For those who are not here present in the SoWa Power Station, but listening in via web stream, should we have any questions, again, please email them to ir@daimlertruck.com, and I will ask them for you. Before we start, just one practical point. Please always introduce yourself with your name and the name of the organization that you're representing before asking a question. I will take the first question from, I think, Klas was first.
Bergelind.
Thank you. Klas Bergelind, with Citi. Great to see the 2030 ambition. Well done. I just want to focus on this year first. If I back out the ASP increase for the second half, as implied by the guidance, it's still quite high. It looks like a sort of a high single-digit increase. There seems to be like an FX headwind, I think, at least according to my model as well, so the like-for-like increase is even higher. Jochen, we have previously talked about the carryover of pricing being maybe high single digit in the first half and then low single digit in the second half. I'm trying to understand what the difference is. Is it service? Is it further price increases? Because it looks like quite a confident message on the ASP into the second half. I'll start there.
Thank you.
Overall, we see the good development on pricing. We talked about, I think it was based on the Q1, that pricing in the first quarter is strong. We maintain that for the second half as well. We have seen, and we all see that some cost increase appearing in the second half, that's still our assumptions from today's perspective. The second element, which is still relevant, is when we talk about from an overall perspective about the supply chain. Well, we were very pleased to see the supply chain was good in Q1. I would say, and I talked about it, was even better in Q2, but I want to underline the point that we still don't see a real stable supply chain for the rest of the year.
That's another element to take into consideration for the second half.
The off-the-market mix will still be quite generous in the second half. That's what you're saying?
Yep.
Okay. my second one is just thinking about the growth range to 2030. It looks like an 8%+ CAGR at the midpoint, maybe 6%-7% low and 10% high end. Can we talk, Martin, a little about the cell penetration at the low end? It looks like on that sort of bridge, on the waterfall, in terms of the growth contribution... I'm trying to understand sort of what is the low-end penetration to get to that, to the low end of the target, which I think is 40% total growth in terms of looking at cell penetration.
I would say the biggest unknown is the amount of battery-electric truck in 2030, which come, as Jochen Goetz have shown, with a significant increase in price. On the other side, you can say, with a significant increase on variable cost as well. I would say this is the biggest uncertainty. A high penetration of battery at the expense, potentially, at hydrogen, might limit that growth on the upper end. The 40%, it's market, it's service, it's increased technology in the products. I would say the lower end is a fairly safe bet, and the higher end depends on the penetration.
Very, very, very quick final one, promise. Is on thinking about. I think you said that you think about a partnership on cell manufacturing locally in North America. Is that a definite decision of going partnership on cell, or can it be a situation to 2030, where you decide to go more local, like we see, or vertical, like we see, for example, at some of your peers, like Volvo? Or is partnership model the way forward on cell manufacturing? Thank you.
Look, you have seen with this uncertainties of the speed of the increase, this uncertainty which technology ultimately prevails, I would say it's all about leveraging your bets. We are working at the moment in a very interesting model. The U.S. legislation with the IRA, Inflation Reduction Act, definitely supports local battery productions, and I have a feeling we are pretty soon, unfortunately, not for today, would be absolutely a bone, but sometimes all stars don't align time-wise. I think you'll see it when we unveil it. It will be an extremely attractive solution for Daimler Truck and the other partners of the partnership, certainly.
Nina.
Thank you. It's Daniela from Goldman Sachs. I have, I think it's two and a half questions, because part of it is related. Very interesting to see you introducing a ROCE target. I think Jochen said at some point that you'll divest businesses that you believe along the way can't get to the hurdle rates on ROCE. Can you talk through which businesses at the moment are on that watch list of improvement? I imagine Asian buses are two things, but any comment there?
First of all, it's important to understand when we talk about active portfolio management, which we do quite a lot, it's not only the segments we report to you, but it's basically roughly 50 businesses we judge on a regular basis on profitability as well as on capital allocation. If you look on the list of decisions we have made since the spin-off, it's quite a lot already, but I would say it's in the nature of the business that we only announce what we are working on if we make a final decision. Therefore, I can assure you there is a couple of topics on the list, but as Martin said on the battery as well, we will announce that when we make a decision.
Regarding the two you mentioned, Asia and the bus, well, on Asia, obviously we made a decision already, and with the merger, we have a great opportunity to leverage our business in Asia, not only on the level of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors, but also on the level of Toyota and Daimler Trucks. I think here we have strategically made a good move in the right direction. We still have to work on to make it happen. Then on the bus side, also, to be very clear, and I said it in the speech as well, the bus still suffers significantly from the low coach market in Europe, but we see really light at the end of the tunnel.
If you look on, conversations with our customers towards 2024 and beyond, the market is coming back, and we will showcase then also that the profitability on the bus will be significantly higher. You're right, we are looking on all options all the time, but nothing to announce today.
Just also following up on ROCE on, you've laid out the path for margins, the path for CapEx as well, and those reductions. Can you talk maybe a little bit about working capital? I saw your cash conversion, I think, is unchanged. We just had a tremendously difficult period on supply chain. Now you're gonna have four platforms. Should we expect working capital intensity to go higher in the future, or how?
I would differentiate between the here and now and the more strategical part of your question. In the here and now, it's fair to say, and I think we were rather vocal on that, our working capital level at the moment is too high, and that's for somehow for a good reason, because still the supply chain is not stable enough. In 2022 and in 2023, for us, the most important piece is to safeguard supply, and with that, we accept a higher working capital than we should have in an optimal situation. As soon as the supply chain is stable, and we are working on that already, we want to lower our working capital, which gives us an opportunity, even free up further cash on top what we have shown.
Regarding your more strategic part of the question, with more technologies, I would not expect that it's a significant increase in working capital, because if you look on the structure of working capital in total, a lot about is inventories, and if you look on the inventories, it's mainly about the truck itself. What will happen is, if you have the same amount of trucks sitting in your working capital, but the cost of the truck is significantly higher than today, also the working capital in absolute terms will increase, but it's also related to a significant bigger revenue. That's the only thing I would see as an increase. In absolute terms, yes, but it's more related to the cost of a truck than of the different technologies.
Thank you. The final one relates to, I think Martin said right at the beginning, that the zero-emission vehicles will be significantly more expensive for the foreseeable future.
Mm-hmm.
Some players in the industry talk about different business models than just selling the truck and doing things like pay as you use or as you go. Do you think you'll end up with a mix of those, or fundamentally the sales model is going to be the same?
We are talking here belief systems, and I would say it's always a question who holds the asset? I can't see a company the size of ours, with 520,000 trucks, 540,000 trucks or even more a year, that we hold a significant amount of trucks associated with the risks. In my opinion, I can't see business models like that. It might be always a kind of a gimmick, to get something into the market and get it started, but it's, for me, not a sustainable business model because it's so asset heavy, so I can't see OEM doing that.
Nicolai and then Miguel.
Hi, it's Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank. Thank you for the strong and preferred presentation. I have two questions. They're both for North America. The first one, a bit more fines related. This year, you're targeting margin between 11%-13%. Your ambition for 2025 is 12%. What's kind of the headwind next two years? We're not a bit more optimistic on North America by 2025?
First of all, the ambition is above 12%. We could say at the moment we have a very, very strong U.S. market, which is even beyond basically what we are saying in a sunny condition. That's one of the reasons why we only "confirm" to 12%. I also mentioned in my speech, if the favorable market conditions as well as the favorable conditions on pricing, which is driven by demand and supply, would continue towards 2025, there's obviously upside potential, and that's not only true for North America, but Daimler Truck overall.
Okay, understood. My second one's on your market share in North America. I mean, you mentioned 40% right now, which is pretty strong, and going to 45%.
I can see that for the occasional sector, but that's just one part, like 25%, and a much bigger part is the on-highway segment. We have Navistar just launching a new powertrain, which will be significant, more efficient, and we still have this famous electric car maker from California, which could also take some market share in U.S. The question is, from who will you take more market share?
I mean, first of all, we are extremely confident in the power of our products, and that's not just a marketing gig, yeah, where everyone is proud, certainly, of its kids and its products. It's what we get from our customers. We are the leader when it comes to TCO. We are the leader when it comes to service and service networks and responsiveness. We are the leader when it comes to any type of safety technology, and we have such a close, great connections over years with our customers. You have seen Mark Rourke, for example, from Schneider, good friend of our company. I would say these are high hurdles, and that is the beauty of capitalism.
This competition keeps us on our toes and keeps us alert, never arrogant, always knowing that we have to deliver the best solution, and I'm really confident in the potential of our company. To beat Freightliner, it's a tough one, but we are prepared for that fight.
Hello, everyone. Miguel from BNP Paribas Exane. I've got one for each. Maybe let's start with Andreas. Let's go back to the revenue growth of 40%-60%. Obviously, a big contribution is the transition to zero-emission vehicles. Is the base case assumption still that 50% of your mix by 2030 will come from battery, electric, and fuel cell? How does that drive the higher top line? How does the price of BEV compare to diesel by 2030? Is it also three times versus diesel? That basically assumes that we will get to parity with diesel by 2030. Lastly, given the ramp up from lower volumes, is that not going to dilute your margins?
Yeah. Thanks, Miguel. Maybe I start with, then, Jochen, you can add on the price.
Sure.
Pricing and margin side. As Martin said, we talk about up to 60% ZEV by 2030, and the rationale behind that uncertainty is, like described, the buildup on the infrastructure on the one side and the availability of green energy at competitive pricing on the other side. That's the multiplication. We will be ready with our products, so we will be able to provide trucks up to 60% by 2030, but the result of the multiplication depends strongly on these factors that are way outside of our ecosystem, what we control. Maybe you want to add as for the assumptions in the 2030 financials.
Miguel, I think it's also fair to say, you know, there is not a one-size-fits-all when it comes to battery electric trucks, because it's totally different if you talk about a bus in the inner city, if you talk about a garbage truck where you can collect garbage overnight and have a different model and different efficiency, or if you talk about a long-haul truck. That's important to understand. Whenever we talk about the profitability of battery electric vehicles, we really have to go region by region and segment by segment. Generally speaking, you have seen also in the revenue bucket, there's a lot of uncertainty. It depends on the penetration rate, but it also depends on the technology mix, which role plays the hydrogenize, which role plays fuel cell and battery.
Specifically to battery, as also Andreas said in his speech, also in 2030, there will be significantly higher revenue for battery electric vehicle than for diesel. We work on bringing costs down, but still, with a battery electric truck, there will always be more cost than if there are more pricing. From a profitability perspective, that's a question we have received quite often in the past, and therefore we want to answer that today as well. We see the profitability for e-truck compared to diesel on a similar level than it is with diesel, and I think that's a strong message already. Therefore, we also said, even after a big chunk of the transformation towards 2030, without Autonomous, we still maintain double-digit margins, including battery electric vehicles.
On capital allocation, you mentioned before on maintaining a minimum industrial net cash between EUR 4 billion and EUR 6 billion, let's call it EUR 6 billion. With the new buyback and dividend payouts, just wanted to confirm that your base case implies still building up cash and not converge to the EUR 6 billion. That kind of implies that free cash flow will step up in 2024 and 2025.
I can fully confirm that. We made this calculation, obviously, in advance as well. We feel well equipped, even with the share buyback program, that we further build up net liquidity position, including, paying a good dividend to our shareholders.
Lastly, on demand, maybe to Martin. I understand you're now taking orders for 2024 in Europe. What can you tell us about demand so far? Should we expect a lower order intake overall in 2024? How are you pricing those orders? Are you seeing any downward pressure from either low raw materials or more intense competition?
I would say at the moment, no. Let do it a little bit more elaborate. A year ago, the biggest question was always: The recession is coming, don't you see it? My standard answer over some time, well, I hear a lot about recession. I don't see it. Now we are 12 months later, the questions are the same. "Do you see the recession coming?" I can still see, I hear about it, I don't see it. For everyone who wants a recession, one day it will come, but we can wait another day for that. The order backlog, the order intake is still strong. Why don't we open it up for eternity? You would just get reserving of slots, yeah? It's as easy as you can order, as easy you can cancel.
We can never shove a truck down the throat of a customer who does not have the transportation need or the money to pay for it. Would make no sense. Therefore, for me, a too long and a too big order backlog is not a sign of health, it's just a sign of, yeah, reserving something, maybe of the future. I want solid order backlogs. That's, I would say, the biggest impact behind that we sequentially open up our order backlog. So far, everything is going fine. Markets have their cycles. I'm looking forward when we get the fleet orders for 2024 in the U.S., for example, September, October-ish, and I'm really positive about 2024. When it comes to pricing, I would say the margins will remain strong. It's at least...
Am I allowed to do forward-looking statements with all the disclaimers so far through that? It's more gut feel at the moment. If raw material would go significantly down, in our case, especially aluminum and steel, that might have an impact, it does not have an impact on margins. It's more a raw material-induced situation. For the moment, we see here relatively stable. We have one good thing at the moment: There's still unfilled demand for markets, and if one market would show or one market segment would show a weakness, we have enough other segments or markets to then step in and take over that production that is available. Overall, still very positive for 2024.
I think next one is over there. Yep.
Thank you. It's Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research. I have two questions on autonomy. The first is on the assumption of hub-to-hub. Is the Freight network, as currently structured, able to do the hub-to-hub, or does it need to evolve, you know, into that shape in order to take advantage of the autonomy on a hub-to-hub basis? The second question is, do you foresee Waymo or full autonomous being separate from hub to hub for a long time, or would the fully autonomous players come into hub-to-hub before they do the rest of autonomy? In other words, is hub-to-hub a sustainable niche, you know, indefinitely?
I mean, you're right, hub-to-hub is not today. Today, it's loading dock to loading dock. Therefore, we work and talk extremely close with our large customers, Saia, England, Schneider, J.B. Hunt, you name it. Yeah, we have rather more customer interested at the moment. We have trucks, where we can work together with them. I think the hub-to-hub part is fairly easy done because in that long-haul business, the pulling unit, the tractor and the load are fairly easy. It's a five-minute issue, then you can switch the tractors. I see someone coming, let's say, half a day, driving to a hub. Five minutes later, the load is disconnected and connected to an autonomous truck.
The guy goes back with the return load to his origin, is back home at night, which makes the job so much more attractive and so much nicer. Then the many days over the road, transport is done by an autonomous unit, then taking over at the next hub. That fits perfectly well in systems our customers can envision, and therefore, we work very closely with them. I can't comment on the strategies and plan of other potential competitors on the virtual driver field. One thing we know for sure, the hub-to-ramp stretch, this 1 mi, is more difficult than the 200 mi on the highway. Yeah? Ramp-to-ramp would be even easier. Unfortunately, not necessarily practical, but than hub to ramp. What I can't see is a fully autonomous truck in a city pedestrian environment.
It's exponentially higher, yeah? The computing power, the cases, the difficulties, the problems for safe driving are enormous.
... Human brain can master everything. We landed on the moon, and we created artificial intelligence. Really amazing. One day, yes, but this, I would like to have it closer to reality, and hub to hub is closer to reality.
Thank you.
Want one more?
I think I've seen. Anthony, yeah.
Oh, Anthony and Dick.
Yes. Hi, Anthony Dick from ODDO BHF. First question on China. Not a very significant contribution for you today, but you and your peers have often talked in the past about the opportunity for Western OEMs to penetrate that market in the midterm. It's not outlined as a major long-term growth driver in your presentation, so I was just wondering, what's your latest view on this opportunity, and to what extent it can help drive growth in the next couple of years, considering that market is evolving on quite a different cycle than the Western markets?
I mean, the.
You stand. I turn the market.
I mean, we go into China with a very distinct strategy. We build our Mercedes-Benz Actros in China. It's a truly Chinese product, and as Andreas Gorbach said, we are now even going to localize the engine or the assembly of the engine. It's a European technology at Chinese cost level for the Chinese market. That's a unique strategy. It's not just a fairy tale, an idea, a vision. It's reality. We launch the product, we go into the market, and we have very good feedback from our customers. Why don't you see it here on our numbers? Fairly easy, because we take it on at equity. Potentially, Jochen Goetz, you want to take over from there?
Yeah, I want to specifically answer your question, and I understand where you're coming from. I say it's not on the charts from a growth perspective. The reason is pretty simple, because we looked from a growth perspective, what happens between 2025 and 2030. We always have seen China as a strong market in 2025, and we expect that still to be on a very high level. If you start today, in 2023, and compare with what our assumptions in 2025 and 2030 are, there's a significant increase in market. As we all know, the Chinese market is very much depressed at the moment. From today, growth potential, but from a, call it, more mid-term perspective, it basically is a reconfirmation of the growth potential we have shown in the past.
Okay. Thank you. I had a second question on the fixed cost reduction. If I read the slide correctly, it seems that you're expecting a further 7% fixed cost reduction between end 2022 and 2025. Could you maybe tell us what is already achieved in 2023, and what should we expect to come further in 2024 and 2025?
Yeah, you're fully right. Well, we have given ourself a target of 15%. We announced at the end of 2022 that we achieved 8%. If you look on the distribution between the remaining three years, I would say it's rather one third, one third, one third. I talked about one specific initiatives that's the tech debt, and that's a burden for 2023, because we invest a lot of money in our new IT system landscape to have a state-of-the-art technology as soon as the systems are rolled out. That's something which is a burden for 2023, but will bring benefits then towards 2025. The easy calculation is you can divide the 7% basically by the three years.
Thank you. Maybe, I don't know if I can squeeze a last one. It's on TCO parity in EVs and hydrogen. In the latest CMD, you presented targets for TCO parity 2025 for BEVs and 2027 for FCEVs. I'm just wondering if, you know, this is still what you envisage today, and what are the underlying assumptions in terms of incentives and additional cost on diesel that will take you to these targets?
That's a very good one, Anthony. Repeating what we said, and I think I had it on one chart. In the majority of the cases today, if you look at TCO, be it battery or hydrogen-propelled, compared with diesel, you end up with higher TCO. You end up with higher TCO, yes, because the depreciation piece under the TCO calculation is higher, cost of the truck, price of the truck, but mainly because of cost of energy. There are cases in this world where you get subsidies for the purchase price, where you get subsidized by toll, where you have access to rather cheap green energy. There are already cases today where the TCO is better with zero emission than with diesel, but the majority of the cases still leads to higher TCO with zero emission.
As we move forward, maybe when we fast-forward in the year 2030, we expect that not only infrastructure will be built up, but we also expect that the cost of green energy will go down, and the cost of diesel, the cost of CO₂, will go up. In which region of the world, which percentage? That is hard to predict. That remains a little bit the crystal ball, it's important to underline, like I said, the cost of energy will be the single biggest lever to influence decarbonization speed. There is not that one year where there's the breaking point. It's a transition phase. It will be different in different places of the world, and we need that to happen.
Otherwise, the multiplication that Martin mentioned will end up with one zero, and then the total result is 0.
I think here, yeah, the next one. Yep.
Hi, David Mack from J. Goldman. On the hydrogen combustion, template that you talked about, are you assuming that's green hydrogen? I guess, what color hydrogen do you assume, is produced to be burned? If we're talking about hydrogen from conventional utility, you know, hydrogen derived from conventional power plants, coal, what have you, do you know what the carbon differential is between that and, say, a diesel engine?
Yeah. For the engine itself, it doesn't matter the color of hydrogen, what the color of hydrogen is. It could be gray, purple, green, blue. Like with a battery electric vehicle, right? The, the mix of the energy has no impact on the vehicle. However, I think that's your point, as we want to decarbonize the source plays a major role, not for the technology, the combustion engine, but in the overall tank, in the overall well-to-wheel equation. Yeah, this is the same like on the electricity side.
If we wanna be serious as for the Paris Agreement, then all sectors need to decarbonize, and then electricity has to become green, and hydrogen has to become green or blue in order to make sure that in the well-to-wheel equation, we have CO₂ neutrality.
Yeah, Jim, the next one here. Over there, I think. We go over to you.
Jim Merwin at McMoran Capital. Two quick ones. As promised, you showed the sunny versus rainy day scenarios. In 2019, it was like 500 basis point difference. 2025, it's roughly 300-400 basis points. Some improvement there, which is great. Could you share with us what those kind of macro assumptions are? Or, you know, what? Is it primarily volume that's the biggest difference there in terms of that? If it's volume, what's kind of that magnitude between sunny and rainy? That's question one.
Yeah. It's basically volume, and obviously, if market conditions change significantly, it has also some impact on pricing. These are the underlying assumption between sunny, fair, and rainy. How you could think about a sunny scenario, what you see right now, so that's basically what we call sunny. The rainy scenario, you always described as 2020, when we had the Covid year. That's basically what you can have in mind for the two scenarios.
Very helpful. Then, you know, on the use of cash flow, you might have mentioned it, but I might have missed it. M&A. Bolt-on, relatively modest, or are there some significant uses for M&A? You know, I'm thinking about it in terms of that came before stock buyback. I know you said the buyback program is not one and done, but just trying to get a sense of the M&A and potentially some of the value chain that you could partner with and put capital into. Just want to make sure I understand that.
I mean, you can see it on the bright side, we have the strengths to do something if it makes sense. On the other side, I see nothing major at the moment that would make sense. We are in all areas of the globe. We know exactly our limitation when it comes to what we can do and what we can't do, and I think we are pretty well covered everywhere. You have seen it on the Torc side. Here we moved. We added Algolux, artificial intelligence, object recognition specialist company. I could see from time to time those opportunities, and if they are priced right, that we do it, but this is not a big and a major thing.
M&A activities are a supplement, not a necessity, to get everything what you have seen. If we ever do something big, it has to significantly change that picture, what we have shown you, but I can't see that at the moment.
Just one other quick one in there. Vocational market share today, North America, 20%-25%.
Yeah.
What's your ambitions in 2025, 2030?
Why shouldn't we have as our dealer network, our product strengths, have it lower than on the on-highway side?
Thank you.
Yeah, okay.
Hi, just a quick question about 2025, the industry capacity, right? Right now, we have bottlenecks out there, and some are maybe structural, if they don't want to really invest in, let's call it, you know, fading diesel technology. What do you think the industry capacity is for 2025?
This is-
The idea of a pre-buy, how much can we model?
That's a very, very difficult question, because, how to define industry capacity? The nice part about if I look at just the OEM capacity, that is easy to add. You know, we work in our most of our plants in two hours, in two shift models. We can easily expand to three shift model. Yeah? There is another 20%, 25% without any big investments in. The bigger bottlenecks are always.
... In the true production location. Yeah, I remember I was once in one of our factories, and a visitor said to me, "You're not producing nothing." I was really kind of upset, and the other was, "You're just assembling stuff. Yeah, you're not producing." Fully right observation. Production always has to go with capital, and that means now supplier by supplier by supplier. You have to look at, in, into it. You have stretched one issue, which in my opinion, might limit the market on any upswing, is the moment you have to invest significantly in production items for combustion engines. I see a reluctancy of suppliers as well, because normally they calculate with a 10-year return when they do major investments, and then we talk 2035.
Are we willing to bet big time and invest triple digit million amount of money in something which might be gone by 2035? That might be a limitation.
Thank you.
I think we have a couple of minutes left, and I have four questioners from the web. I will start with Steven Whiteman from Société Générale. His question: Have you had the opportunity to independently benchmark all the electric heavy-duty trucks that are operating in the U.S.? In other words, have you been able to assess the Tesla Semi?
We consistently benchmark all our trucks, regardless of the powertrain, certainly we are watching very diligently what every competitor is doing. As I said, we are not arrogant, but we are not afraid of everyone. In my opinion, every newcomer underestimates is the huge complexity a truck is. There is not one truck. That's not even one tractor. Even our big customers at least buy 20, 30 different variants of the same-looking truck. Why? They are extremely sophisticated, and they are extremely, for them, every single feature translates into TCO. I'm really not afraid of nobody. Andreas, some comments about energy and technology features of our electric trucks?
No, I think, Martin, you covered it quite well. We do benchmark all of them. We take them all serious. We see similar approaches, like I earlier said. Basically, all the players are upscaling PACCAR technology in that early, fast-to-market phase with smaller volumes. It'll be interesting, though, moving forward, when we step by step truckify these technologies and then rather bet our horse on pure truck scales, how the pure players will then evolve, when the legacy players have their global volume that justifies own dedicated, purpose-built platforms, with technology that goes beyond PACCAR, but that's for the years to come.
Thank you. I have José Asumendi from J.P. Morgan with three questions. Start with Brazil. Can you please elaborate more on the restructure measures taken in Brazil? When will we see the payback on the actions taken so far?
Okay, well, we talked about Brazil. I think it's one of the areas where we really did a lot. On the one hand, we changed the vertical integration already. We outsourced logistics, stepped out of transmissions and axles to some extent. We recently also optimized our footprint, selling the third plant in Campinas, and in parallel, we also optimized our costs and reduced the overall white-collar numbers. A lot of things are going on in Brazil at the moment. Some have an immediate impact, which is positive. Some is lead time until the full impact comes into the P&L. From therefore, the plan of execution works pretty well. We suffer at the moment in Brazil, like everyone, because after the introduction of Euro VI, the markets are pretty weak.
From a restructuring perspective, I would say we are well on track to achieve our targets.
Similar area on Europe. Can you come back on the fixed cost reduction and the actions taken in Europe, and which actions are you taking or have you taken to reduce the fixed cost allocation to engine manufacturing?
Well, from a European perspective, I think I talked about it on this chart. First of all, we will continue the activities we had already. One big thing is the Tech Lab strategy, which is especially in Mercedes-Benz, and the reason why is we had a joint IT landscape with Mercedes-Benz cars, so it was very close connected to Mercedes. That's one big lever. The other one, you have also seen that on the Mercedes-Benz efficiency program, now especially on sales, there's a lot of potential. It's not that we have forgotten to talk about sales, but that was another area where we had first to make sure that the operations run stable after the spin-off, and now we have to optimize it. That's the next big lever, which is coming.
The third one I want to mention, and it's an ongoing process with Turkey, with India, for the Mercedes-Benz business. There's a lot of optimization potential when it comes to best cost country and to outsourcing activities, so that's the third big lever for Mercedes-Benz to achieve the targets. On the engine side, there was another one. I think we made clear that we step out of the medium-duty engine business. That's the plan we have announced, and we are on the way to execute. On the heavy-duty, given the size and the need for heavy-duty engines in the years to come, we also maintain our, what we call, last-man-standing strategy, and rather optimize the overall volumes than stepping out of that business.
A last quick one from Jose. Can you talk about how do you manage residual value of internal combustion engine trucks as you launch the BEV family?
I see that pretty relaxed and, you know, not just today that the volumes are far too low. If I look at those scenarios when we have 40%, 50% BEV trucks, they are so much more expensive than ICE engines that the secondary market, and those are normally customers having bigger difficulties in investing in their fleets, I think there will still be a strong market with then much lower supply of ICE engines. I'm not worried. I would say this will be business as usual. That means clear depreciation schedules and residual values following those depreciation schedules.
Two short questions from Himanshu Agarwal from Jefferies. At the last Capital Market Date, Karin mentioned Mercedes-Benz does not hold podium positions in product, sales, or service. Can you give us an update on that? The second one, significant emission regulations changes are due at the latest 2027, and potentially Euro VII in Europe as well. How do you think it will impact the business post 2027 in terms of mix, i.e., trucks or service? Do you see economies of scale between U.S. and European emission regulations? What do you see as the biggest risk to compliance with those regulations?
I'm glad that you are asking short questions.
Yes.
Not complex questions. The first one, really short. I would say that's a key mission of Karin Rådström and her team to really bring Mercedes-Benz back where it was for many years, and I think she is on an excellent way. When it comes to quality, we are on a level we haven't been for the last 15 years. I think the initiatives she's doing on after-sales, on customer attention, are paying, but it's with everything we have to rebuild trust. It takes time. It's so easy to destroy something. It's so difficult to build it up again.
I see ourselves on a very, very good way, and certainly I could see us doing the next Capital Market Day in Europe and then have not just the glorious North American products around us, but have a similar impressive lineup of European products with European customers or European testimonials around that. I'm not worried at all that she will be successful with this task. I have to admit, the second question was so complex, I just hand it over to someone else to answer.
I can do that at most wisely about the regulation. I think, in Europe, it's the Euro VII regulation, but it's not fully clear how that plays out. That's the one thing. The other regulation, which is on the rise, is the CO₂ regulation towards 2025. Here we are rather clear. We already announced that we have a BEV long-haul truck on the way, which is one major pillar to achieve that. In parallel, we also optimize still our diesel truck, be it on the engine, be it on aerodynamics, to achieve that. Again, Euro VII a little bit unclear. In the U.S., I think it's a good announcement that EPA and CARB is going now in a similar direction towards 2027. I think we touched briefly on it earlier.
Assuming that costs will increase quite a bit, there will be most likely a high pre-buy in the years earlier to that. That's what we see at the moment, and then afterwards, as always, a year after pre-buy would be, from a market perspective, rather on the lower one. That's what we see at the moment.
Thank you, Jochen. The last but one from Shaqeal Kirunda from Morgan Stanley. What will drive higher earnings resilience between 2025 and 2030, especially in light of increased fixed costs in that period?
I mean, the fixed costs definitely will grow much less than the revenue, therefore, which I don't see any impact on the resilience of our company. It's that we go far more in that service-related, sustainable business. Imagine Autonomous Driving would pick up. You have, like, a consistent flow of kind of subscription models over the years. We see it when we do long-term warranty contracts, repair contracts, which already help us today to get more sustainable income, I would say this will be the major forces we'll see in those years ahead.
Last one from Jonathan Day, HSBC: On Autonomous, please could you elaborate on the assumptions behind the autonomous targets of EUR 3 billion revenue and EUR 1 billion EBIT and how it could ramp?
The assumption is that the virtual driver has a significant potential to increase efficiency. Like all software-based models, it scales easily. We have based that on pretty conservative assumptions, that the routes in rather fair weather areas, saying in the thousands of the U.S., focusing on freight corridors, so not picturing the entire U.S. highway system, just using three, four of the major freight corridors, with not by far way from a huge market share. There is all ways, once this business starts, of course, potential. Then we are talking things beyond 2030. I would say this is already. This should be the last sentence here. We talked about 2023 in our confidence. We talked about 2025 in our confidence. We talked about 2030 in our confidence.
I am confident for 2040, but I would like to leave something for the next Capital Market Days and not cover everything from now to eternity just today. I think this range is already a large and big range.
Thanks a lot, Martin. Perfect words for the last question and the last answer. Thank you all for attending today's Capital Market Day. It was a great pleasure for us hosting this event here in Boston at the SoWa Power Station and giving you a comprehensive outlook on 2023, 2025, and 2030, as Martin just explained. As always, should you have any further questions after the event, our IR team remains at your full disposal. I hope to welcome you again soon, at the latest, to our Q2 upcoming disclosure, August 1st, which will again be then a purely virtual event. Take care and have a pleasant day. Thank you.