Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 8, 2022

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the conference call of Fraport AG. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. May I now hand you over to today's host, Christoph Nanke, Senior Vice President, Head of Finance and IR. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, Emma, and warm welcome also from my side. I have with me at the table our CEO, Stefan Schulte, and our CFO, Matthias Zieschang. We have a lot of topics to talk about today, so let's do not wait and start the presentation. Yeah, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, also from my side, to this year's Q3 presentation. Let me start my presentation with a very positive message. First, we are proud, if I may say so, of the financial achievements in the past quarter on EBITDA. We managed to come back to pre-COVID levels, and we are fully on track to be financially recovered on a full year base, latest in fiscal year 2024. On traffic, Frankfurt is showing a good trend here, Q3 also achieved roughly 75% of our 2019 benchmark year. Also, the current winter flight schedule looks very promising. With regard to our international portfolio, here, the higher share of leisure or touristic traffic led to an even quicker recovery on average. Financially, as said before, our Q3, so the EBITDA is back on pre-crisis level. Key drivers for the financial performance were our international activities with Fraport Greece being on top. Also, our operating cash flow improved strongly. Correspondingly, we achieved a positive free cash flow in Q3, despite the major construction works going on in Frankfurt and also in Lima. Operationally, the past quarter was challenging in Frankfurt for many reasons. However, due to our close cooperation with our aviation partners, we nonetheless managed a stable operational business during the key summer season. Looking ahead, we have implemented strong measures to regain our high quality as major European hub. Before going into many details here, let me have a closer look on our financial performance first. I'm on slide 4, our key financial highlights for the third quarter. Total group revenues, excluding IFRIC 12, recovered by roughly EUR 250 million and achieved a level of more than EUR 900 million. Compared to the benchmark quarter, so Q3 2019, this represented a strong recovery of 95%, so almost entirely recovered. Key drivers for the increase in total revenues were our international assets, mainly Fraport Greece. Frankfurt, our home base, also recovered to a level of close to 85%. On EBITDA, due to a higher cost burn, Frankfurt was a level of about 67% of 2019, while our international airports already exceeded the pre-COVID levels at 130%, so really good. In total, this led to an EBITDA of EUR 420 million, or as mentioned, 96% of 2019. On the level of EPS, we recorded a stronger decline compared to 2019. Here, the profit before tax was still much comparable to 2019. We, however, faced a higher tax rate this year due to the effects on the full write-off of our loan made to Thalita Trading Limited, so Saint Petersburg. Applying the same tax rate as in 2019, our EPS would have been close to EUR 2, so clearly more comparable to the 2019 level. Thanks to the strong recovery of our operating cash flow, also our free cash flow was positive again at EUR 125 million. Free cash flow per share stood at EUR 1.35 and was just 10% short of our 2019 benchmark year. All in all, a strong financial result, and Matthias will talk about this later more in detail. Where does the strong recovery comes from? I'm on slide five, and I mentioned this already. Here you see the very impressive recovery of our international activities in three key points. Firstly, the traffic performance was just fantastic. 27 million passengers across our majority-owned airports were pretty close to the level of 2019, where we reached our all-time high at 29 million passengers. The traffic performance in combination with higher prices and improved retail offering led to an even better EBITDA recovery. At 130%, the international segment clearly outperformed the 2019 benchmark year and also our expectations. Key driver for the strong EBITDA increase was our investment in Greece. At EUR 179 million, Fraport Greece did not just account for 69% of the international activity segment EBITDA, but also represented 42% of our group EBITDA in the third quarter. That's really impressive. Also Fraport USA and Fraport Brasil were above the 2019 EBITDA level, while Lima Airport was pretty close to it. Correspondingly, our international activity segment accounted for the majority in our group EBITDA at more than 60% in this third quarter. We go to the business development. I'm on slide six, and starting another time with Fraport Greece. Fraport Greece achieved another rebalance for this COVID-19 related impact on its business operation. This time, we discuss the adverse impacts on our business in the first half of 2021. As you will remember, despite the availability of vaccines, 2021 was still very much impacted by COVID-19. The chief compensation now amounts to roughly EUR 58 million, and it's split into the cancellation of fixed concession component, which is around EUR 24 million booked in this quarter or this first nine months, and the residual shares of roughly EUR 34 million, and this residual amount will be booked against our variable concession obligations next year or the next years. Also at Fraport Brasil, we applied for another rebalance to COVID, so of COVID-19 related impacts. Here we discuss the impact of the current year, so fiscal year 2022. This year, the Omicron variant adversely impacted the last winter season globally. Our northern winter season is more decisive for Fraport Brasil and as it is, summer season in Latin America. On this matter, we expect to hear back from the authorities by end of this year, so nothing booked up to now. Simultaneously, Porto Alegre applied to redeem all fixed concession charges in line with the offer made by the local aviation authority, ANAC, because it's very favorable to do this. In case of an approval, this should lead to a mild positive impact on our group account. Good news we also received from Fraport Twin Star in Bulgaria. The concession grantor approved our request to extend the concession duration by 5 more years until fiscal year 2041. Progress we also saw at Fraport TAV in Antalya. Here, the construction works at the terminal for the new concession started. Simultaneously, we looked into further funding for the CapEx in the amount of some EUR 178 million. Going on next slide, I'm on Lima Airport. The very positive information. First, we have meanwhile finished the construction works at the new runway and the new tower. They shall become operational next year, supporting the operational ramp up at Lima Airport. On this slide number seven, you also see the progress of our new terminal. As you know from our previous publications, we decided to move back from a temporary dual terminal use to a single terminal use already from the beginning of the new terminal operation. We have agreed with the contractor on the terms and are finalizing the amendment of the existing terminal EPC contract. Under the extended EPC, the terminal areas will be expanded short-term to accommodate for the expected passenger growth over multiple years. Moreover, we can close down the existing terminal and save on operational costs and maintenance CapEx. The financial impacts of the expanded extended EPC, you can see here on this chart. While we prepared for you some $300 million CapEx next year, the amendment and other items or the extension will lift this range by another $50-$100 million. The same is the case for fiscal year 2024, and so on. The new terminal itself will be commissioned as planned at the start of fiscal year 2025. Coming back to the current development, which is shown on slide 8, with our traffic figures. As mentioned before, we recorded a strong traffic recovery in our international airports. Here, Fraport Greece in particular showed a very good performance, but also Antalya Airport performed very good and showed traffic results pretty close to the level of 2019. For our Latin assets, we are also seeing improving trend in Q3. Here, the upcoming summer season will be more decisive. For the remainder of our European portfolio, so Ljubljana and Twin Star, the picture is different. Ljubljana is still impacted by the absence of Adria Airways, so the former national flag carrier, which left the market in September 2019. In 2019, it's also a high base for Varna and Burgas. In addition, these two airports in Bulgaria, they suffer from the war in the Ukraine. The Bulgarian Black Sea coast is one of the closest European tourist destination to the Ukraine, which makes it less attractive for tourists this year. Moreover, in contrast to Turkey, Bulgaria has imposed a strict flight ban to Russia, so we are experiencing a special situation in Varna Airport. Moving to Frankfurt, our home market. Here, the traffic in the first nine months was negatively impacted by Omicron in the first quarter, especially with a very weak traffic this first quarter. More recently, we saw the traffic momentum picking up again. During Q3, Frankfurt achieved some 74% of the pre-pandemic level. This number also could have been some better, but we missed our part of the recovery due to the operational issues in Frankfurt and in Germany in general, because we are very close and the closest up to Eastern Europe territory, with all the restrictions we got in the airspace, with NATO, flights going to cross from west to east and blockings of the airspace in Eastern Europe or sharper reduction of the capacity over there. At the end, we managed to get out without a big crash and then to stabilize the operation. Coming to the staff on slide number 9, we give you an update on this slide. As you are aware, we reduced our Frankfurt labor force compared to 2019 by more than 4,000 employees. A few things are, however, important to highlight. In ground handling, we have started to hire back people since end of 2021, third, fourth quarter in 2021 already. In total, we currently employ roughly 81% of our 2019 peak summer level in ground handling. The same rate of people we are currently employing in our security subsidiary, FraSec. Given the tight labor market and the need to handle the high peak load situation, we also had to recruit temporary staff or lease personnel. In total, about 800-900 leased employees were with us during August and September. This led to a total headcount recovery in ground handling of up to 90%. I mentioned traffic was around 75-76%. It's not really a staff issue, it's more an issue of qualification. It's in addition also an issue in general on airside, on delays, flight in and so on, from other airports across Europe, on shortness of staff with our aviation partners. Then there was somewhere the problem. Staff is enough there. That's not the topic. The topic is now qualification across the winter to bring it up to the necessary levels, and to be prepared for an even stronger year we expect from today's point of view for next year, 2023. If I may go a little bit more in detail regarding security business. I'm on slide 10. As you are aware, we will take over the responsibility to manage the security process in Frankfurt next year. The takeover is a very important step for us as the security process was in the past a major pain point for many travelers prior to COVID. We are very pleased to present you some of our first steps already today. Given our new role, we have already started to procure multiple computed tomography scanners, which are gradually being rolled out in Frankfurt. That's really a great achievement because if you discuss this with the federal government, they will not get the next CTs before the year 2026. We could make it, and they're already on the way to Frankfurt Airport, and we'll get them into operation the first quarter of next year. That's very, very positive because it means more speed for our passengers. It means more comfort for our passengers because you don't have to take out no longer than liquids and notebooks and whatever. You will have less waiting times at the security control. That means more time to relax and hopefully to retail, to do retail offerings. If we look at the winter schedule, so the near-term future, that's looking very promising. I'm on slide 11, which where the winter flight schedule just started. On average, we expect up to 90% of our pre-COVID seat capacity in Frankfurt to be restored. Here, the strongest recovery we're seeing on North Atlantic routes, where traffic may be even exceeding the 2019 level. For Europe, seat capacities also look strong at around 90% of 2017 levels. Just lagging behind is Far East with a level of 77%. Also, if we look at the October numbers, we will publish them the next days. They also have been very positive, and also the first days of November have been positive in Frankfurt, but also, of course, on our international portfolio. That's all very good. Going ahead on slide 12. On this chart, you can see the latest addition to Frankfurt Airport. We are very committed on our ESG strategy and our targets. You know that we want to be CO2 free by the year 2045 officially, and with a very clear cut down in the year 2030. For Frankfurt, the year 2030 is already the target to be down on 75,000 tons of CO2. I'm quite sure from today's point of view that we will fulfill this obligation even earlier, or let's say it this way, 2030, probably I would expect from today's point of view, we are already down to a level of 50,000 tons CO2 here in Frankfurt. With all the measurements we take here on this slide, you see the new plant at this point to cover a mid-single-digit % of our electricity need here at Frankfurt. Together with our new big wind park project offshore in 2026, the photovoltaic plant will cover the majority of our future electricity needs. We will be served mainly by green power, and that's important thing to get there and to take all the measurements which are necessary. Turning to page 13, my last slide of today's presentation, our outlook, thanks to the strong year-to-date passenger performance, especially also on the international side, we expect to achieve the upper end of all key performance indicators of our upward first half guidance. Frankfurt passengers should amount to 50 million passengers. Our group EBITDA should achieve up to EUR 906... EUR 970 million, and we are quite sure to achieve the upper level there. For the group, EBIT up to EUR 520 million, and group results in up to EUR 100 million. Depends, Matthias will cover this a little bit more, maybe even a little bit higher than this EUR 100 million, but that depends on a lot of factors. Just the dividends remains for the time being at no distribution. Having said this, I would like to thank you for your attention and now Matthias with the financials. Thank you. Yeah. Thank you, Stefan, and also good afternoon and warm welcome from my side. Before we take a closer look at the financial performance of our segments, I would like to start today with a short view on our historic financials and where we stand today compared to that. Here on slide 15, you find the development of our EBITDA on top and our EBT on the bottom, reaching back until 2017. As you can see, we clearly achieved the turnaround after the total breakdown in 2020. We very quickly increased our operational results again now that we are seeing traffic volumes recovering all over our airport portfolio. Like this, we are on a very good way to reach our former strength again. Already this year, we expect to be more or less back on the 2017 level with regards to EBITDA. Now that the momentum is quite strong with passenger numbers expected to grow further over the winter flight schedule, we are absolutely confident to reach the 2019 operational results again latest by 2024. This even at lower passenger numbers than in 2019 and despite high inflation numbers. Now, let's go into the financial breakdown by segments starting on page 16 with aviation. In this segment, we are quite satisfied with the recent developments, first of all, with the revenues that increased to around 85% of 2019 figures in Q3 at an increased passenger level of 75%. Based on the development we saw in H1 of this year, this leads to revenues of more than EUR 600 million, which reflects roughly 80% of nine months 2019. We expect this positive trend to continue in Q4 on the back of further increasing passenger numbers. Despite increasing traffic numbers, we only incurred a minor increase in OpEx compared to Q2. All in all, we saved more than EUR 100 million or 18% of total OpEx compared to nine months 2019. Looking at the EBITDA performance in aviation, please bear in mind that the strong 2021 performance was based on special items in the amount of, in total, EUR 218 million. Focusing on Q3 standalone, it becomes clear how strong the performance actually is. With 79 million, the Q3 EBITDA reaches around 80% of the 2019 figure and is 2.5 times as high as the 2021 EBITDA. As a consequence, and as expected, the margin of the segment increased further to more than 32% in Q3. Coming now to our retail and real estate segment on slide 17, I would like to start with some good news here. After having seen our retail spend per passenger under pressure in Q2, we were able to stabilize it in Q3 at EUR 3 and thus achieved a slight improvement over Q3 2019. This is very positive having in mind that we are still lacking around 50% of our advertisement revenues. Beginning traffic recovery to and from Asia definitely helps the retail performance, but is still rather limited and slowly developing. Looking into the remaining revenue streams, we feel very comfortable with the overall performance, seeing that parking recovered to around 85% and real estate exceeds 2019 levels by 11%. On the other side, especially higher energy prices of around EUR 8 million in Q3 resulted in an OpEx level which was more than 10% above Q3 2019. If adjusted for the price increase, the underlying OpEx would have been 17% lower if compared to nine months 2019, which is very positive. All this leads to an EBITDA in Q3 of EUR 91 million, which represents roughly 85% of 2019 and lifts the nine months figure to around 75% of the pre-crisis level. The EBITDA margin remains high at 75% in Q3 and at 73% year-to-date. Moving on to our last Frankfurt segment, ground handling on slide 18. A continued high level of revenues in the area of around 80% compared to Q3 2019 lifted nine months revenue to around 75% of the pre-crisis level. However, a strong summer season with extreme traffic peaks during the day further increased the need for personnel on the apron, which is why we had to bring in additional external staff to get along with the operational challenges we were facing. This of course heavily affected non-staff costs in Q3, which is why the segment's total OpEx in Q3 was similar to OpEx in 2019. Looking at the nine months performance, we still realized savings of around 11% on the back of around 20% staff cost reductions. Now, despite a good revenue recovery, OpEx development puts the segment's EBITDA heavily under pressure so that it was clearly negative at -EUR 10 million in Q3. As Stefan pointed out before, we work on increasing the productivity of current employees, and we also have to apply for higher charges to compensate for higher costs incurred. The target we follow is absolutely clear, improve profitability and finally generate a positive EBITDA again. Having looked at the individual performances of the Frankfurt segments, let me now jump into the update of our cost savings. Where do we stand today? On the top left of slide 19, you see the development of the total costs incurred in Frankfurt on a quarterly basis compared to last year in 2019. All of you are aware that we are finding ourselves in a challenging market situation at the moment with high energy prices, inflation, and on top of that, a fast ramp-up in operations. Therefore, I think it is fair to say that in light of this environment, we are very successfully running our cost-saving initiatives. In numbers, this means that we saved almost EUR 160 million this year compared to 2019. A major share, namely more than 80%, comes from staff cost savings. This is not a surprise as we are still running the company with 4,200 employees less than at year-end 2019. The remaining 20% come from other OpEx, which is adversely affected by the deployment of external staff. We will see some shift here as we are rehiring in our ground handling segment and becoming more independent from external staff again. Looking ahead towards the end of the year and remaining cost savings potentials, we need to be realistic that our target to save up to EUR 250 million will not be achieved. This is, however, primarily driven by the prevailing macroeconomic developments, i.e., the skyrocketing inflation rather than missed efforts. Nevertheless, of course, we will work hard on savings wherever it is possible and reasonable, which is why we still target a cost savings of up to EUR 200 million for full year 2022 compared to 2019. Now, let me come to the financial performance of our international airports on chart 20. Having a look at the EBITDA contribution of the individual assets, it is obvious that Greece, with an EBITDA of more than EUR 250 million, out of which about 70% came from Q3, is the most important driver of the segment as well as the group financials. Also all other investments incurred a positive EBITDA, with Lima, Fraport USA and Brazil being the biggest contributors following Greece. Jointly, the majority-owned international activities and Frankfurt Services contributed almost EUR 500 million to our nine months group EBITDA, a share of around 60%. Digging a bit deeper into the segment's P&L on slide 21 shows a positive result we just saw on my previous slide. All relevant financials from underlying revenues via OpEx to EBITDA and EBIT developed in the right direction in Q3 as well as in the year-to-date figures. Supported by quicker traffic ramp up than in Frankfurt, lean airport management and sustainable cost savings, the EBITDA margin after 9 months increased by 6 percentage points compared to 2019, and reaches 52%. At a first glance, it seems striking that other OpEx increased over 2019. However, this is especially driven by the variable concession fee kicking in for Greece in the amount of roughly EUR 20 million. Even if adjusting for one-offs on other income from Greece as well as from Xi'an of in total EUR 78 million, we recorded a clear improvement in all operational results. On my next slide, I would like to give you an update on our cash flow in the first 9 months of 2022 and the resulting indebtedness. Starting on the left side of the chart, you immediately see a very positive development. The green bar gives you our current operational cash flow for the year in the amount of EUR 628 million, so it's three times higher than in 2021, which was primarily driven by a strong Q3 performance, which I will get to in a minute. Of course, as you all know, our current CapEx exposure, especially to growth projects, weighs on the free cash flow performance. Overall, brick-and-mortar CapEx so far amounted to EUR 795 million this year, which was well in line with our expectations. Looking at our biggest growth projects, namely Frankfurt T3 and Lima, they incurred cash outs of EUR 605 million. Moreover, the new Antalya concession led to cash outs of EUR 375 million. Summing up all relevant effects leads you to a negative free cash flow of -EUR 609 million. However, when subtracting the one-off effect from the equity contribution for the new Antalya project, we ended up at -EUR 234 million euro. Taking all this into consideration shows a strong potential for our free cash flow, excluding our growth CapEx. To end this slide, let me quickly have a look at the right side of the chart, where you see that our net debt increased over the course of the year to EUR 7 billion. This reflects a net debt to last twelve months EBITDA of 7.3, so a clear improvement compared to 2021. On my next slide, as mentioned before, I would like to have a closer look at our Q3 cash flow development. Around 70% of the total OCF or more than EUR 440 million are coming from Q3, which even outperforms the OCF of Q3 2019. I do not want to go into each detail of this slide now, as in the individual lines, there are no major changes to the Q2 stats. However, what is important for me to draw your attention to is the potential that we are going to see once traffic is further recovering. Already now, supported by the ramp up over the summer season, we incurred a free cash flow of EUR 351 million in a single quarter if excluding the running growth projects. Now, even if we include those projects, our Q3 free cash flow was clearly positive at EUR 100 million-EUR 125 million. Coming from CapEx exposure to our cash position, which is of course correlated. On slide 24, you'll find the development of our liquidity since year-end 2019 on a quarterly basis. Backed by the positive free cash flow and additional financing activities in Q3, we were able to further increase our available funds to more than EUR 4.5 billion. This bolster gives us enough comfort to reach fiscal year 2025, having in mind our maturities and refinancing measures over the next years. However, we still have good access to the market and will make use of further financing opportunities when it is reasonable. As you know, we are currently working on the new Lima project finance to cover the CapEx for the new terminal. All in all, regarding liquidity, we feel very well positioned within the current market environment. Moving on to my last slide for today, presenting an update of our repayment chart. For this year, in blue you see the refinancing of the bridge loan for the Lima project, which is due at the end of the year. Apart from that, there are no more major items on the agenda over the next years. On the top right, you see that our average interest rate for the group of 2.2% has not changed despite some new financing activities we took on over the course of Q3. With this, I would like to conclude today's presentation and open the Q&A session. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. First question is from the line of Stephanie D'Ath with RBC. Please go ahead. Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on results from investment held at equity. For the third quarter, it was above EUR 50 million, thanks to Antalya, which was about EUR 100 million, and Thalita about EUR 10 million. I was just wondering what was making the difference in the delta of -EUR 58 million. My second question concerns the taxes. I was wondering if you could maybe explain to us what to expect for the full year. Actually the third quarter was at EUR 136 million on a profit of EUR 287 million, which implies a 47% tax rate. Anything to highlight there? My third question, please, is on traffic growth in 78% of pre-pandemic traffic in October, which is a 4% month-over-month improvement. I was curious to have your view on whether those levels will continue to improve further in the year and especially the new year, or if you were expecting a slowdown of the improvement rate. Thank you so much. First question at equity. When I look into the numbers, in Q3 2022, we had EUR 51.2 million results from companies accounted for using the equity method. This is coming primarily from Antalya. Antalya generated EUR 100 million, so we own 50%, and at equity treatment is 50% of it. It's EUR 50 million from EUR 100 million coming or generated at Antalya. Second question, taxes. This is That's your question or not? Yes, you just answered my question for the first one. Okay. Second is taxes. It's a special. Normally, we have a tax rate on group level of maximum 30%. At the moment, it's much higher. This has to do with just one item. This is a treatment of the write-off of the EUR 160 million shareholder loan. The shareholder loan is offered from our Malta subsidiary to the holding company in Cyprus, which has 100% of the shares of Saint Petersburg. We have written off the EUR 160 million. Of course, this is tax deductible, but on Malta, the net tax is just 3%. With other words, with a write-off of EUR 160 million of the share alone, our tax shield is just 3% or 4% from EUR 160 million. This led and leads to the situation that this is spoiling our tax rate so that you see in the moment a 50% tax rate. This is just due to this one-off of the write-off of the St. Petersburg shareholder loans. Looking forward, we are coming back to the regular tax rate of the group of maximum of 30%. The third question was. I'm sorry, and that's also valid for Q4 then? Pardon? Yes. Yes. Yeah. Being back to normal. Yeah. Your third question was, if I got it correct on traffic, how is our expectation for October, November, December, so for the remaining year? I mentioned already that we have seen a very strong October. We will publish the numbers tomorrow or the day after or on Friday. I don't know exactly. What we expect is that we will stay on this strong level. As mentioned, we see more or less -20%, compared to pre-COVID, -23%, so 10 percentage points better than what we have seen in the third quarter. Of course, the absolute numbers are coming down. That's normal. The demand is very strong, and also the supply is quite strong across all airlines. Yes, we are expecting a positive fourth quarter. Thank you. For early next year, you don't see any indication that the trends will change? It depends. We are in principle quite positive. If we discuss with other airlines, with the community in general, they are all very, very bullish. Despite that we will run into a recession, nobody knows exactly, despite some energy problems and so on. The branch in principle is very positive, so we also will be prepared for a higher traffic volume, for higher passenger numbers next year. You can, of course, ask how could this be? If you look at the German mood, at the German discussion, on the one side, yes, we are probably in the upper segment of people consuming something. Second point is probably that, whatever we get as polls, as consumer preferences, vacation and flying to the southern parts of Europe is on a very, very high preference for the population. If they have to save money, they would take a cheaper hotel or a day less or something like this, but we have to see. On the other. In addition, positive factors that we expect, especially on the business traveling side and then on the intercontinental side, additional recoveries, which we haven't had up to now. There are some positive factors why we from today's point of view, it's not a guidance, but what we would see from today's point of view, a further increase next year. Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ruxandra Haradau-Doser with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. Congratulations on the performance. Three questions, please. First, a little difficult to understand the capacity recoveries this winter to 90% of 2019 level in the context of Lufthansa indicating that they will operate only 80% of their winter pre-crisis capacities, and some low-cost carriers not flying anymore to Frankfurt. Which airlines are driving this strong recovery in capacities, and is Lufthansa operating more capacities in Frankfurt than at other airports? Second, congratulations on the recovery of EBITDA to 96% of pre-crisis level in Q3. Considering the nine months performance and your target to be at the upper end of the full year EBITDA guidance, it implies you're expecting Q4 EBITDA around 40% lower than in 2019, despite, as you mentioned, capacities in Frankfurt being restored to 90% of pre-crisis level during the winter flight schedule. Do you expect any negative one-offs in Q4? And third, capacities at 90% of pre-crisis level already this winter. In 2019, you operated around 10% above the nominal terminal capacity. Do you see some chances to open Terminal 3 or Pier G earlier than planned? Thank you. Let me start with the first question and the third question, and I assume that Matthias will take the second one. On the winter schedule, we gave you the official numbers regarding the coordinated slots. That's on a 90% level. I just mentioned already, if I look at October and estimate November, December, that's more on the 80%, 82% or 82%, something like this, or 78%, so more on the 80% level. That's probably in line with Lufthansa. I would expect that we run the winter schedule around 80% effective flights or effective passenger numbers, even if the coordinated number of slots is already on 90%. It will depend very much at the end on the demand, and the demand seems to be strong, so it's a seasonal factor at the end and so on. As mentioned, at the moment, we are roughly a little bit above 80%. Regarding Terminal 3, it's absolutely clear we will open up Terminal 3 beginning of 2026, and we will not take it any further earlier. It's the summer season, 2026. Yes, you know that we are flexible on PRG, but from today's point of view, it's also absolutely clear that we will not open up PRG next year. Because for next year, if I take it in total, we don't need it. We have enough terminal capacity, and then that will work in Terminal 1 and Terminal 2. Second question, do you expect negative one-offs? Key answer, no. As of today, we don't see any negative one-offs. Your observation is correct when you add the Q4 numbers from 2019, we will end up very high. This is comparable to our outlook. We said we will end up at the very high end, and this means we are running against EUR 1 billion EBITDA for this year. Whether it's EUR 20 million less or EUR 20 million more, everything is possible. We have to see how is the volatility regarding energy prices, wages, et cetera, extra shifts, but also remaining traffic. There's a lot of volatility. We do not expect any negative one-offs. We are very optimistic and looking forward that the numbers at the end of the day will be very positive. Thank you very much. As a reminder, that's star followed by one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Elodie Rall with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on your outlook for OpEx next year in light of the tariff increase that you have secured, right, of 4.9%? For 2023, is this enough, that tariff increase, or do you anticipate that you will need to ask for more? I suppose this would be for 2024, and what kind of tariff increase at this stage do you think you need for 2024 after that? My second question is on just to come back on your cost saving guidance. I think you said this time, you're thinking of EUR 200 million of sustainable cost savings, that's compared to 250 before. You have, I think you told us you are running at EUR 167 million run rate. I just wanted to understand how to reconcile to that EUR 200 million of sustainable cost saving. Is that because you're seeing energy costs going down from here? My last question is on refinancing costs. I appreciate you have high liquidity levels, but you have about 35% of debt maturing over the next three years. What kind of increase in financing costs should we model or do you expect in your base case in the next few years or per annum? Thanks a lot. If I take the first question, yes, we are in an inflation environment, if I may say it so. That means, we will see higher costs, and we have to make sure that we also see higher revenues on that. The positive thing is, and we have seen this, on the third quarter, but also in general, with the nine months figures, we have a very high portion of the international business already, and with all the concession agreements over there, most of them have an inflation clause in. It's not an automatism, but more or less, not 100%, but most times 90% of the inflation we can take forward and can roll it over, with higher aviation fees on that side. Second point is we are very well protected on the retail side and the real estate side, because on the real estate we also normally have an inflation clauses in most of the contracts. On the retail side, it depends, of course, somewhat how the prices of the tenants are increased by inflation because of inflation also at the airport, and we get a variable fee out of that. Regarding aviation fees in Frankfurt, yes, that deal was done earlier. It was at that time a quite good deal, that's fixed for next year, but we will take into account those inflation scenarios for the next years. Also regarding aviation fees, and it depends somewhere, negotiations will start somewhere that's too early now on traffic increase, but for sure also on fee increases. There's no other way around if you take all the cost increases. On central infrastructure, if I take ground handling as a remaining segment in Frankfurt, of course, we have to open up whatever is to open up as contracts with airlines, to bring up the price over there per handling, because we also have much higher costs. Sometimes it's possible to put through an inflation clause, sometimes it's a sharp increase. There are several hundred contracts, so it's too early to say what the average result at the end is. We are working on this already, and we take up always contracts in the size of packs of 50 contracts now, 50 contracts in one month, and so on, because we have a lot of inflation, a lot of negotiations there. On central infrastructure for the ground handling baggage system, we asked for an increase for next year of 10%. That's now the consultation is now running. I hope I can give you somewhere an overview that we are really working on these things, and I'm quite optimistic that we'll get most of the things through. Yes. Second question was regarding our interest exposure, and here the answer or the mechanics of the answer are relatively simple. We have a gross debt of nearly EUR 11 billion. In total, the weighted burden, interest burden is in the moment 2.2%. You see on slide 25 in our presentation how the repayment schedule looks like for the next couple of years. It's a very balanced schedule. With other words, we have to refinance about EUR 1 billion per annum, and this characterizes the interest exposure. Whenever we come to the market as of today, we have to pay in the moment about 4.5%, which is clearly more than what we paid in the past. But again, it's just an increase always regarding EUR 1 billion. Depending whether the new financings have interest levels of 4% or 5%, you can calculate what does it mean for the interest. Result on the other side, we have the liquidity. Total liquidity is EUR 4.5 billion, thereof EUR 700 million credit lines. We have cash on hand 3.7-3.8 billion, and theoretically also we could use these funds to finance the repayment amount in the next 3-4 years. In other words, if you would go down to zero, which we are not going to do. There wouldn't be any additional interest burden for us, and we have these options. We can play with the current level of liquidity. Even if we keep on running this EUR 4.5 billion, then the theoretical exposure per annum is EUR 1 billion times X, and X is the difference between the 2.2% from the past and the new refinancing cost in the next years. Okay, thanks very much. Welcome. The next question is from the line of Marcin Wojtal with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Firstly, on incentives to airlines, you mentioned that there was EUR 23 million revenue dilution in the nine months because of these incentives. Is your plan to continue with a similar incentive scheme in 2023? That's my first question. Second of all, can we get an update on Terminal 3 construction, please? Do you still expect CapEx to be around EUR 4 billion? Is everything on budget? What is percentage of completion, if you could update us? Lastly, if I can come back on refinancing, please. What is your most likely course of action? Are you planning to indeed run down the cash balance a little bit, or are you planning to issue Eurobonds, or you think you will be switching a bit more back into bank financing? What are the options available? Thank you. Thanks for those questions. If I start with Terminal 3, commitments and orders to tender out and then committed as contracts are roughly 80% of the budget. Completion, I would estimate probably 60-65%. Whatever construction that's done, the roof is done. All the glass facade is already under work in progress. We are now really in the technical, whether it's climate, whether it's heating, whether it's whatever you have to bring in as technical into a terminal. We're very much online, on time, on budget. We don't see any big risk on that side. We are even making very good progress on the Sky Line. We got the first train over there, but also there was other construction. Yeah, it may be surprisingly for you, but we are on budget and we are on time, and I'm quite optimistic on that side. I think we have a very, very good team over there, and team which is also doing jobs in advance because they see sometimes that supply chain is difficult and we take those things and informed on ground here that we can get the progress done as planned and organized as planned. Regarding the incentive program, there is a small incentive program in place also for the year 2023 that's linked to growth, but it's not a big one. Yeah, Matthias can give you more details on that side. It's linked to passenger numbers. That's the topic. At the end, we did for this year and for the next year, a passenger incentive program. The more they grow over a specific threshold up to a maximum, they get some rebate, and then that's positive because we have 100% of the revenues giving something back. Whether we continue this in the long run, I don't know. We have to see. That's not negotiated, and there's nothing done. I think it's really in our favor to do this this way. Regarding cash balance. Cash balance, first of all, you asked what could be or what will be the instrument. This is absolutely open. In the moment, we have a clear preference in favor of so-called promissory notes, in German and not to Eurobonds. Why? Because there's always a mismatch between the interest level of promissory notes on one side and Eurobonds on the other side. In the moment, the gap is very high in favor of the promissory notes. That's the reason why, for the next couple of months or quarters, we have a clear preference for promissory notes. And then I mentioned also the option to use our cash funds. In the moment means, I would say for the next couple of 12 months, there's no intention to go down with the EUR 4.5 billion liquidity reserve. Looking forward, this means 2024 onward, then I think it could be that we are going down with a high liquidity. In the moment, we feel very comfortable. We have full access to any markets, any capital markets or debt markets. That's the reason why, also due to the high volatility, which is still in the market, we feel very comfortable with a high liquidity level. Thank you. Welcome. As a reminder, that's star followed by one to ask a question. Next question is from the line of Dario Maglione with BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead. Hi. Three questions from me. The first one on OpEx. In Frankfurt, what kind of savings should we expect for 2023 compared to 2019? Will this include the consolidation of part of the FraSec staff? The second question on the OpEx again, you mentioned that you're using more expensive temporary staff in ground handling. I think you talked about 660 people. How much more expensive is that, this kind of temporary effect? The third question is on the debt level. In what kind of traffic scenario do you think your current level of debt is not sustainable? Thank you. First question, OpEx in Frankfurt. The backbone of our activities has been the reduction of more than 4,000 FTEs here at the Frankfurt site. If you look now on the current numbers, we had, in the beginning of the year, we had minus 4,400. Now we stand at minus 4,200. Yes, there will be some ramp up in ground handling, while on the other side, we still have pressure on admin and semi-admin functions. There will be a partial compensation by further reductions on the other side. To make the long story short, also in the next twelve months, we will end up at around minus 4,000 people. This is times their average salary. We have a savings potential also for next two years of more than EUR 200 million. On the other side, and this is more or less sustainable, which runs against us now is the skyrocketing inflation on the energy price side, as well as higher tariffs for the employees. We have to see now what will be the new tariff numbers for our employees in 2023, in 2024. This is so to say it's linked to inflation. This is, of course, compensating the savings generated by the volume effect, i.e. minus 4,000 times X as an average salary for the guys. FraSec, of course, has something to do because still we have the personnel cost for FraSec. Up from the first of January 2023, we have a deconsolidation of FraSec or part of FraSec, which is doing the security business on the so-called §5 LuftSiG, operating the security lines inside the terminals in Frankfurt as well as outside Frankfurt. This means we consolidate about 2,000 FTEs. Overnight then the total number will not be -4,000, but -6,000 in January 2023. Of course, we have in this logical second also a reduction of the personnel expenses for these 2,000 people of FraSec. On the other side, because we are then responsible for the security business, we charge the service to the airlines, and we receive these services then from I-SEC and Securitas as well as FraSec, and we have to pay for it. Then this is booked as material expenses. There's a switch or a swap, reduced personnel expenses on one side and higher material expenses because we buy it now from a company which is our side. On the other side, we have higher revenues. Why? Because we, so to say, we sell the additional costs for doing the service to the airline. It will be a complicated operation, so to say, in our P&L. We will make it fully transparent. Again, the net numbers are that these carve out of FraSec is P&L neutral, will show a FTE reduction of -200, reduced personnel expenses 2,000 times X as the average salary for these guys. On the other side, in the same amount, higher material expenses because now we buy this service from FraSec, which is deconsolidated up from January 2023. Debt. What was the third question? Debt level? Sustainable debt level. Sustainable debt level. We, first of all, net debt as of today or end of Q3 is exactly EUR 7 billion. Due to the fact that the free cash flow is still negative until we reach the break even, we will go up close to EUR 8 billion. This will be the maximum of the group indebtedness. But on the other side, we are focusing on the key number net debt to EBITDA. Here we made good progress. You see in the numbers, we end up at 7.4 times, which is a clear improvement again, compared to last year, where we have been above 8 times. Our target number is 5, maximum 5 times net debt to EBITDA. As of today, we will reach this in 2025. We ramp down to the long-term sustainable level of 5x, and the improvement will be year by year. Well, another question or that's done? The temporary staff. The temporary staff, you had a question, the second question. Yes, we had temporary staff in summer on ground handling. I think the number I mentioned was around 800-900. The contracts are different depending with whom you are working together. I would say on average, probably around 20% more than if it was hired directly. Looking forward, we will always have some temporary staff. Probably will be, if I compare next summer peak with this summer peak, it will be somewhat reduced because we have more on our own company, less temporary, but we will also have some temporary, and it makes sense even with 20 plus 20% on average. Because if you don't use them the full year, but more for the peaks, for the peak summer months, then it's better just to have them three, four, five months in instead of paying them full year. Okay? Okay. Thank you. Next question is from the line of Marco Limite with Barclays. Please go ahead. Hello. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a question about your free cash flow projections. If I'm not wrong, you were guiding in Q2 for free cash flow breakeven in 2024. You have today announced some sort of frontloading of CapEx for Lima. Just wondering when do you expect now the group to be free cash flow breakeven? The second question is again on free cash flow and medium-term CapEx. Again, the second quarter, you were guiding for CapEx levels to go back to maintenance levels in 2028, sorry. Just if you can, if you could add some more color for your CapEx expectations for 2026 and 2027, given that, of course, Terminal 3 and Lima CapEx will be over by then. You will have some more CapEx in 2026 and 2027, just if you can remind us for what. Maybe we'll have some CapEx to do for Terminal 2. Third question, if you could please remind us, and this is on Lima CapEx, how the frontloading of the CapEx you have announced this morning work. With the second quarter conference, you said that there was a net increase of CapEx of about EUR 150 million. If I've made the math right from the chart, the additional CapEx you're announcing today is about EUR 350 million. You're basically saying you're increasing the net CapEx by EUR 200 million. If you can re-explain that, please. Thank you. To start with the free cash flow? Yes. As you mentioned, our outlook is today and was to achieve breakeven in 2024. This was before the change of the CapEx structure in Lima. You mentioned it. The frontloading that we are now going to construct something which was planned to build much later, so end of this decade. In total, it's more or less neutral, but it's again frontloaded. We have to see now with the new medium-term planning, what does it mean, whether we can stick on the 2024 target or there's a change in 2025. We now have the final calculation of the new plan, and we have to see what will be the outcome. Regarding the other big programs, there's nothing new. We already said that in the beginning of 2025, Lima will be ready. The inauguration of the new midfield terminal also in combination with the second runway. It's absolutely on track. T3 is also on track, and here the time schedule is to open this terminal with a summer schedule 2026. In other words, then the two programs are over. You see also our proven track record regarding Brazil and Greece, where we showed when we are over with the expansion programs, we go down on a very low maintenance CapEx level. The same will happen then for Lima and Peru as well as here for the site in Frankfurt. We go down to the maintenance CapEx levels which will be in total for the group a maximum of EUR 400 million per annum. Last topic regarding T2, what we are going in 2026. In 2026, we are opening T3 and then temporarily we are going to close down T2 because it doesn't make sense to run at the same time three terminals while the traffic demand or the passenger numbers are ramping up. It's a backup terminal, and whenever need is given to reopen, we are going to open T2. This means in the next couple of years, there's nothing in the plan because we have it as it is and just in a very long run, it can be that we invest money in Terminal 2. Regarding Lima, I think that was the other question. You are right, with the extension on the one terminal that we can go up to 37 million passengers, that's the capacity we'll build there. We want to inaugurate, as Matthias mentioned, beginning of 2025, so we do it in two steps. Beginning of 2025, the full capacity will be there. This additional is EUR 300 million gross CapEx, and I think that was on the one slide spread over three years. We have to calculate against this all the savings, operationally, but also maintenance and so on the terminal one or on the existing terminal, on the old terminal, which of course is an older one, so it costs a lot of money on that side. That's the reason we mentioned the EUR 150 million net amount. Whether it's exactly the same years, we have to be a little bit careful. You have always a front loading on the CapEx, but the savings are coming a little bit later after closing down the existing terminals in the next years. They are already then savings because we start already with a single terminal operation in 2023, because there we have already a capacity in place of 24-25 million passengers. Then the extension is coming up to the level of 37 million. The first savings should come in at least in 2024. 2023, there's a question mark on that. Depends how the transition from the one terminal and the other terminal is exactly working. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashna Kumar with HSBC. Please go ahead. Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I'm so sorry if these questions have already been answered. I was dropped off in between. I have a couple actually. I have three questions, if I may. I just want to understand what kind of flexibility would you have in terms of CapEx in case there is a significant slowdown in demand. Would you be able to delay some of the CapEx or. That is my first question, if you could please help on that. Secondly, your retail revenue per passenger is already higher than 2019 while Chinese, but the high spender Chinese people have not yet returned back. What do you think? I mean, how do you see retail revenue per passenger going into 2024 when probably we might see China opening up? Finally, on the balance sheet, you have a significant amount of debt. I mean, do we expect some kind of balance sheet restructuring, capital structure restructuring or, you know, how do you see your balance sheet at the moment, and how comfortable are you on that? Thank you. Probably. Thanks for your questions. The third one we already answered, but maybe a short another answer on the balance sheet. On the first one on CapEx, we always showed, I think also over the quarters, that we have some flexibility and if necessary, but we also reduced it already very much. One thing is clear, if you are constructing such a terminal 3 or a terminal like in Lima, if you start to construct it, you should not delay it because of a slowdown in traffic, then you have to fulfill it because otherwise it's getting more expensive as the savings are. Additional costs would be over proportionate. To be also quite clear, we don't see a slowdown in demand. The signals we get from the market are exactly the opposite. The question is whether we can capture with all the additional demand, and a slowdown we don't see at all. There are no worst-case scenarios, this way, even if we'd have a lot of worst-case scenarios, but not on a slowdown in demand. Regarding retail, as you mentioned, momentum is good. The first two quarters have been weak at Frankfurt Airport. Now Q3 stabilizing, now we are a little bit even a little bit better than Q3 2019, 1.7 nearly 2%. Today we received the preliminary figures for October this year, and this is very, very promising. In October, the spend per pax at Frankfurt was EUR 3.40. Good recovery year to date. We are now at EUR 3.05. Given the current momentum, we see the full year number at EUR 3.20 as of today. This is, I think, very, very promising. It goes in the right direction and we think, so the bottom line or the bottom is reached, and we are looking forward for good recovery. Balance sheet, clear answer. We feel fine with the balance sheet. There will be no restructuring. We ramped down over time to, again, 5x net debt to EBITDA. There's no need for anything to adjust. It's temporarily, yes, too high, but this is due to Corona. Now we are proving EBITDA goes up and we will reach the level of indebtedness of about EUR 8 billion. That's it. Then EBITDA goes up and up. On the other side, when the free cash flow generation is there, we will use these funds to also bring down the absolute indebtedness of the group. Sorry, in terms of net debt to EBITDA, you said you're at 5x. What is your comfortable level in terms of net debt to EBITDA? At what level would you think of a capital restructuring? Again, our target always was 5x. Of course, there was the overrun due to Corona, where we went up to I don't know what, and now we are at 7.x, so we just running down to the target, and the target is 5x. Again, this will not change over time. In about 2025, we will go back in this, let me say, satisfying range. Again, there's no need for any restructuring. Okay, thank you so much and good luck. Welcome. Thank you. Next question is from the line of José Arroyas, Santander. Please go ahead. Hello. Just two questions from me, please. In the Q2, you mentioned that you have done a preliminary analysis of the international activities going into 2023, and you thought that the portfolio could deliver on a preliminary basis about EUR 500 million EBITDA. Has that assessment changed as of today, or is it better, same, or slightly worse than that? That will be my first question. My second question is on slide 7 on the Lima Airport CapEx. There seems to be a base case and an upside case for the CapEx, and I want you to understand what drives the base case CapEx to the upper end of the range, if that's a possibility. Thank you. Thanks. Yeah, as you mentioned, we said in the early beginning of the year that we expect about EUR 500 million contribution from the international business. As of today, we already achieved this, it will be more in Q4 coming on top of this. It's better than this what we saw in the beginning. That's also the reason why we adjusted our outlook for the full year some months ago, and we are still optimistic and I think on Friday we are publishing the new traffic number. Is that correct? Friday. I can say Friday will be good for us and for you. Momentum is strong, and this means we can translate the higher passenger numbers in the international business also in better EBITDA numbers. That's the reason why we are confident to run against EUR 1 billion EBITDA. Lima, regarding Lima, that's not a worst case and a best case. Sorry, probably we should have done it a little bit more clearer. The separation here between further EPC scope and further EPC scope range, that means at the end, I tried to explain this a little bit in my speech. You have a direct EPC scope, which is contracted with an EPC contractor really on the terminal itself. Then you have some amendments which could go with the EPC contractor, but which could also go with other companies which are not negotiated at the moment. Baggage conveyor system, something like this for the extension, some other items, which could be depending what we do there on detail, because that was not in the focus up to now. That could be in the range of EUR 50-100 million. These are additions at the end, where we have to go through the detailed planning phase and so on, which is not done. We may be a little bit conservative. Could be, that's so-called amendments. The most important thing for us was really to get the EPC contract through, even with the addition up to the level of 37 million passengers, 737.5 million passengers. Because now we can go into the negotiations with the project financing banks and the amendments are not important for that. There we have enough time to go and to focus now on that for the next phase. Perhaps in addition to this, when we talk about the CapEx for Lima, you always have to see what we are constructing based on an EPC contract, which is denominated in U.S. dollar. We talk always in our balance sheet about euro. It can be if the dollar goes up, if you have $1 billion CapEx, denominated in dollar and the dollar goes up or down 10%, you always have a volatility of $100 million. This is a little bit not the problem, but what you always see as a so to say variable in the CapEx, depending on the current dollar rate. The dollar at the moment is strong, so this costs us in the translation, something on a euro basis, but this can also change overnight. That's the reason why we cannot exactly fix it like in Frankfurt, where we always say it's EUR 4 billion, but this is denominated in euro and the construction is in euro. In Lima again it's in U.S. dollar. So far it's a natural hedge because also on the revenue side, we are collecting the fees for the international passengers in U.S. dollars, so this is a perfect natural hedge. We have this translation effect between the exchange rates, dollar versus euro. Okay. There are no further questions on the line. I would like to hand back to Christoph Nanke for closing comments. Thank you, Emma. Yeah, thank you for participating. Thank you for all your interesting good questions. If anything further comes up to your mind, please give us a call in IR and wish everyone a good day. Thanks. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call of Fraport AG. Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect.