Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Publication Full Year Figures 2024 and Annual Report 2024 conference call and live webcast. I'm Moritz, the conference call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Christoph Nanke, SVP, Head of Finance and IR. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Moritz, and warm welcome from my side. I have with me in the room Stefan Schulte, our CEO, and Matthias Zieschang, our CFO. I know you have a lot of questions, but before that, we start with the presentation right now. Please go ahead, Stefan.
Yeah, Christoph, thanks very much. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome also from my side. Let me start my presentation today with a positive message. Despite a challenging environment, we achieved our financial and operational targets in the past fiscal year. We achieved an EBITDA in the middle of our guidance range, and the net result is in the upper area of the expectations. Moreover, despite heavy investments, we achieved a stable leverage ratio, which is still too high. That's no question, but at least as expected. What have been the main challenges that we are facing? Firstly, our main customer in Frankfurt, Lufthansa, is still waiting for its new widebody aircraft. Currently, more than 40 long-haul planes are in use, which were already meant to be replaced by new modern aircraft. Focusing on last year only, Lufthansa expected the delivery of 50 new Boeing 787.
As of today, none of these planes are flying Frankfurt or have been even delivered. Additionally, the maintenance of the Pratt & Whitney engine exposed short-haul aircraft reduced our Frankfurt capacity by about 3 to 4% last year, and probably likewise this year. There are some positive signals that the 787-10 to 15 could come to Frankfurt somewhere in the second half of this year. The new 777, I would not expect to come this year and even probably not from today's point of view in the year 2026. Also, from a political perspective, we faced a challenging environment. In May last year, the German aviation tax was raised another time, making Germany one of the most expensive countries to operate worldwide. This year, the German state has further increased the security costs to be paid by the airline as well as the air navigation charges.
Besides these cost items, 2025 also marks the first year of the mandatory SAF quota, so sustainable aviation fuel, applicable in the European Union. That's not really the topic. The topic is plus an additional power-to-liquid rate mandatory for flights departing Germany, so so-called gold plating in Germany another time. Ladies and gentlemen, these burdens are very high. Correspondingly, the German aviation industry is lacking the speed of recovery seen in other countries. The BDL, that's the German Aviation Association, for example, estimates that airlines flying Germany will have to pay about EUR 1.2 billion higher state-related charges this year for 2025, or roughly EUR 11 per departing passenger on average. Considering the airline margins, this is a very high incremental burden. I'm convinced that Germany has to regain competitiveness, and we address this through the new government or probably upcoming new government very, very clear.
There is some point of chance, some point of optimism, and I hope that we will be able to deliver or to tell you what is going on in the next call. Despite these strong headwinds, we are happy with the results. We delivered this morning an all-time high EBITDA of EUR 1.3 billion and a group result of more than EUR 500 million, close to the record level of 2018. More financial data later for Matthias, who will also guide you through our segments. Looking back at our operational performance in 2024, I am on slide four. The traffic results illustrate very much what I just said. Frankfurt is impacted by external factors, everything I just mentioned before, and it is not just Frankfurt, it is Germany overall. We are on a recovery rate of 87% with an increase of +3.7%.
A better traffic performance we are seeing in our international portfolio. The group airports outside of Frankfurt have, in the meantime, fully recovered 2019 level on average. This is even more impressive, keeping the temporary closure of Porto Alegre Airport due to the heavy flooding in mind. The key driver for the passenger growth on our group-wide basis was our investment in Greece at 120%. Fraport Greece clearly outperformed 2019 and was adding another 6% to the already high previous year base. A very strong development, which we expect to continue this year. Maybe on a somewhat lower level, we have to see, but the demand for Greece is still very, very positive. Following the political unrest at the beginning of 2023, Lima Airport has caught up on the lost traffic in 2024 at 104%.
Lima passengers' numbers exceeded the 2019 benchmark, and we do expect 2025 to be another good year of robust growth in Peru. Staying in Latam, Fraport Brazil on the other side recorded a mixed development. While Fortaleza achieved year-on-year passenger growth, Porto Alegre was strongly impacted by the temporary closure of the airport due to the heavy flooding in May. In Q4, the airport fully reopened, and we do expect it will take a few months until the airlines restore their capacities. A better performance recorded in Ljubljana. While the airport still misses a national flag carrier, the financials are quite fine, and the outlook for this summer season looks good, which will bring us closer to the 2019 levels again.
While our twin star airports in Bulgaria were negatively impacted by Wizz Air fleet reductions due to Pratt & Whitney exposed aircraft, Antalya Airport recorded a very strong result for more than 38 million passengers, which I will also talk about in a minute. Looking now forward to the upcoming summer season in Frankfurt, I'm on slide five. Despite persistent challenges from high location costs and continued low supply of aircraft, we expect a turning point in our Frankfurt traffic momentum. While the start of the year in general in February was still comparably weak, we expect to see some traffic momentum from March and then further on in the year onwards. The traffic momentum will be predominantly driven by Condor, which is our second biggest customer in Frankfurt.
Condor needs to strengthen its feeder networks for primarily short-haul routes, as Lufthansa has changed the feeder agreement between the two carriers. The result of these changes is shown on the chart. We expect traffic growth this summer in the area of 4 to 5% seat capacity, mainly driven by Condor. Outside of Condor, also EasyJet will bring new capacities and traffic growth to Frankfurt. As you know, EasyJet is a remedy taker in the Lufthansa ITA transaction. Correspondingly, Lufthansa needs to support competition between Frankfurt and Italy and grant it two daily services from Frankfurt to Rome and two daily services from Frankfurt to Milano Linate to EasyJet. Regarding Lufthansa, we do not expect the Pratt & Whitney engine issue to be solved this year, nor do we expect positive effects from the potential certification of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner this summer.
Having said this, the 4 to 5% capacity growth largely comes without Lufthansa. We however expect Lufthansa to come back into the growth mode this winter, latest in summer 2026, when the fixing of the Pratt & Whitney engines is coming to an end and the Dreamliners will be fully into service finally. Now, coming back to our own homework on slide number six, we see ourselves on track with our major expansion programs. Let me start here with the new terminal at Lima Airport. As you know, the opening of the new terminal was postponed yesterday, exactly this night. We are now working closely with the local authorities to clear the remaining steps and to determine a new opening date. Here we'll provide you with an update shortly. To be precise, there's nothing wrong with the new terminal, which is almost 100% completed.
The new terminal is a very fine infrastructure with modern state-of-the-art retail outlets. Also, the retail outlets are finished. It's a bright terminal with lots of space for passengers. As mentioned with our Q3 publication already, our IT IR team will provide you a deep dive on the new terminal and walk you through the highlights after the terminal opening. I can just say the topics around the further delay seem to be landslide access topics responsible by the state and maybe also some unrest we have seen today after the murdering of a singer in Lima, a singer and some state of emergency. We will give you an update as soon as we have more information on what's going on there because the terminal is fully ready and it could be opened immediately.
If we have to delay it some weeks, that's the decision by the Peruvian government. Moving on to Antalya, over the past three years, the team has made tremendous progress to fulfill the investment as set out in the concession contract. In mid-April now, we will open the new terminal around the 12th of April, most probably, and will from there on be able to handle up to 65 million passengers, an enormous capacity which will place Antalya in the top 10 airports of Europe. Despite the big capacity addition, we will prove to be right last year. As I mentioned before, Antalya handled about 38 million passengers, an all-time high figure. Despite this great result, the airport still misses about 4 to 5 million passengers from Russia and Ukraine when compared to 2019. We all hope for peace in the region.
So far, Antalya is very well positioned, and we expect to see continued good traffic growth over there. Following Lima and Antalya, we will complete the terminal construction in Frankfurt in the second half of this year, most likely in October. With these three investments, we will complete our major CapEx program this year, which we initiated with the groundbreaking ceremony in Frankfurt exactly 10 years ago, so somewhere after Easter 2026. Going on to slide seven, our Frankfurt Airport. We are clearly focusing there on customer satisfaction with projects such as the rollout of new CT security scanners in Terminal 1 and the new automated check-in counters. In addition, we are working on AI initiatives to increase the efficiency of our operational processes with a clear focus on punctuality and also to improve our financial performance.
A few projects such as AI-supported turnaround processes or the intelligent dispatching agent as well are well advanced and will be rolled out up to the end of this year. Fascinating to see how AI can support us in our daily business, and we are very much looking forward to make use of this. On the other side, we decided to stop individual projects such as the security relocation in Terminal 1, concourse B, after a thorough review process, but we will bring in Terminal 1, concourse B on the east side CT scanners so that even there the processes are much quicker and with a better customer satisfaction, and that's much earlier being realized than the relocation of security lanes in general. Moreover, we extended the planning phase for the Terminal 2 modernization like this.
We have clearly reduced the near-term CapEx needs as a result in the upcoming two years, and we will have a strong improvement in free cash flow and will bring back the free cash flow into a clearly positive three-digit million EUR area. Sorry, not new area. Progress we also met regarding the tendering of the new Terminal 3 retail areas. I'm on slide number eight. The positive message is first, all retail slots have been awarded in a short period of time. Therefore, we'll grow our Frankfurt retail areas as expected by about 12,000 sq m with the opening of Terminal 3. The new marketplace in the Nansheng area is the heart of Terminal 3 retail area. It's structured in a way to suit all our customers' needs, ranging from kids' stores to fine dining opportunities.
The centerpiece of the marketplace is a very nice bar with numerous seating opportunities to enjoy and enjoy the vivid atmosphere, but also seating areas with an apron view will be provided. Besides new modern concepts, in particular, the central security lane in front of the marketplace will offer our customers an improved customer experience compared to Terminal 2, where we are currently working with decentralized security checks in the Nansheng area. What does the new retail offering mean for our financials? I'm on slide number nine. Compared to the current setup in Terminal 2, we expect an increase in retail revenues of roughly 50% compared to Terminal 2 by 2027, which is the first full year of Terminal 3 operations. Please keep in mind that Terminal 3 overall can generate even more retail revenues in 2027.
We don't expect the terminal capacities to be fully utilized so that over the time, the Terminal 3 retail sales will further grow. On the slide, you see a rough split of the terminal capacity. In the long run, Terminal 2 will come back into operation and will start generating retail revenues again, but also Terminal 3 will offer further capacities on its moderate peers. That is quite long-term from today's perspective. Regarding the transition phase next year, do also keep in mind that we expect the opening of Terminal 3 after the Easter holidays. Therefore, Q3 2027 will be the first quarter with Terminal 3 in full operation, and the airlines will be shifted from Terminal 2 in a staggered approach. Before talking too much about 2026, let's have a look at our expectations for the current fiscal year 2025. I'm on my final slide.
Frankfurt passengers we expect to grow this year but remain below 64 million. In percent, this represents a growth rate of below 4%. That depends very much on the question at what time which aircraft are coming in and whether they are adding capacity or replacing other aircraft. It could be in a range between 2 to 3%, maximum up to 4%, but more 2 to 3%. As discussed before, in particular, the phase-in of the new Boeing 787 Dreamliners to Lufthansa remains a factor which we cannot fully assess at the moment. Moreover, we continue to be impacted by missing Pratt & Whitney engine aircraft. For the financial performance, we are facing additional unknown parameters. In particular, the new collective labor agreement for the majority of our Frankfurt staff hasn't been agreed upon yet.
In financial terms, we are talking here about a tough cost bill of close to EUR 1 billion. It makes a difference whether we see there a 3% or a 5% or even a 7% wage settlement or even more as the union's request. Therefore, we provided you a relatively broad guidance range and expect a moderate EBITDA increase in the single-digit percentage area. For the group result, we expect this to be flat to down this year. Let me precise here, we incurred extra gains of more than EUR 40 million last year from the disposal of our remaining shares in St. Petersburg. These gains are non-recurring. Adjusted for St. Petersburg divestment, our group result will be more flat this year.
As Matthias will talk about that in a minute, the net debt to EBITDA ratio will improve due to the positive EBITDA outlook and stable net debt. For the dividend, we currently expect no dividend payment for the 2025 financial year to be distributed in 2027 and want to focus on reducing our leverage first. This could only change if we would have a lot of headwind, but really a lot of headwind by positive governmental decisions on the state costs like Luftfahrtgäste, so aviation tax, and if a lot of new aircraft would come into service. It is not very much probable from today's point of view. Let's see whether we get all this headwind, then maybe the picture is changing a little bit. Having said this, I would like to thank you for your attention and now Matthias with more financials.
Yeah, thank you, Stefan, and a warm welcome also from my side. My first chart of the presentation shows our long-term development of passenger traffic in Frankfurt and group EBITDA. On slide number 12, you see the development of the last year, so from 2014 until 2024. Reviewing the operational and financial performances shows a decoupling of our financial and operational metrics. While our Frankfurt passenger numbers just increased slightly compared to 2014, our group EBITDA recorded a strong increase of 65% compared to 2014. Certainly, the increase was mainly driven by our operations outside of Frankfurt, so our international activity segments. Here, the majority of the EBITDA growth was generated by new investments like Fraport Greece and Fraport Brazil, but also the airports that were already part of our portfolio in 2014, like Lima Airport or Ljubljana, showed organic earnings growth.
On the other side, also our Frankfurt operations recorded an EBITDA increase compared to 2014. Despite a broadly stable number of passengers, the aviation segment, for example, showed a significant EBITDA growth of nearly 60% or EUR 137 million. Therefore, and despite the fact that Frankfurt Airport has not recovered to the pre-COVID passenger levels yet, the group showed overall good financial progress in the past years and marked an all-time high operational result today. Moving on to my most important slide of the agenda, our cash flow and net debt outlook for 2025. As a starting point, as always, we take our EBITDA guidance as a proxy for our operating cash flow, so more than EUR 1.3 billion of inflow this year. From this basis, we deduct the CAPEX of roughly EUR 1.1 billion that we have talked about for the past couple of quarters.
Please note here that this amount continues to be spoiled by the major CapEx programs in Frankfurt as well as in Lima, which we will finish this year. We will clearly reduce our CapEx burden in the next couple of years. Following the CapEx, we subtract another EUR 400 million net cash interest payments and cash taxes. Moreover, we expect fixed concession payments and IFRS 16 lease payments in the amount of some EUR 100 million. On the inflow side, we expect further positive cash effects from our associated companies and changes in networking capital, of in total more than EUR 100 million this year. All the individual components together add up to free cash flow this year, which is very close to break-even.
Please note here that this amount does not include the EUR 100 million of inflows from the daily stake in divestment, which we received two weeks ago. As a result of the free cash flow outlook, we expect our group net debt to remain broadly unchanged compared to last year's level. The review of the past year's cash flow and indebtedness situation is shown on slide number 14. The operating cash flow showed a very strong performance. At EUR 1.18 billion, the operating cash flow grew by 37% compared to the previous year. The increase was driven by both sound operating development and good working capital management. All else equal, the operating cash flow would have been sufficient to provide a strong positive free cash flow of EUR 560 million, excluding for the expansion CapEx in Frankfurt and Lima Airport.
Including for those heavy expansion works, our free cash flow was negative at EUR 675 million and therefore in line with our expectations for the year. Correspondingly, our group net debt figure stood short of EUR 8.4 billion, and our leverage ratio remained at 6.4 times. Both indicators were in line with our guidance. Our current maturity profile is shown on slide number 15. Despite the negative free cash flow, our liquidity position remained at a high level of more than EUR 3.9 billion or EUR 4.5 billion, including for unused project finance and committed credit lines. Gross debt, on the other side, amounted to EUR 12.3 billion, slightly up compared to the third quarter results. At 3.2%, the average cost of debt remained unchanged in the second half of 2024. Looking ahead, we expect to refinance most of the Frankfurt maturities this year.
In addition, we will make full use of the Lima project finance this year due to the terminal completion. As a consequence of the higher cost of debt in Peru and the Frankfurt refinance, we expect the average cost of debt to slightly grow this year up to a level of maximum 3.5%. Coming to our segment reporting, starting with aviation on slide number 16. The segment showed an overall strong earnings development due to the higher passenger number, but in particular due to the 9.5% increase in aviation charges. Security revenues also grew by roughly 10%, but were balanced with costs in more or less the same amount. Bottom line, the segment recorded a strong EBITDA increase of more than 21% to an all-time high of EUR 374 million. Despite higher DNA from the write-down of the security relocation project, EBIT was nicely up to EUR 203 million.
Looking ahead, we expect continued headwinds from OPEX inflation this year. While the price increases will support the segment earnings development. Consequently, we expect a moderate growth of EBITDA and EBIT in the current financial year. Moving on to our retail and real estate segment on slide number 17. Revenues grew by close to EUR 40 million to EUR 537 million. All business areas, so retail, real estate, as well as parking, contributed to the solid increase in segment revenues. At EUR 3.35, retail revenues per passenger also performed well despite continued closures on the land side in the Frankfurt terminals. Key drivers for the solid retail momentum were strong advertising revenues, which were, among others, supported by the European Soccer Championship in June and July, an improved passenger mix thanks to the China recovery, and third, an increased dwell time due to smooth and fast security processes.
Parking and real estate revenues also grew nicely, among others, due to price effects. On the OPEX side, cost for maintenance services in ongoing projects, such as a refurbishment of the parking houses, turned out to be higher than initially anticipated. Therefore, segment EBITDA only grew slightly to EUR 375 million. For the year ahead, we expect revenue to be supported by passenger volume growth in the retail and parking divisions. On the cost side, we expect a continuation of the OPEX trend of the past financial year. As a result, we expect segment EBITDA to remain at about the same level of 2024 or slightly above. Coming now to our ground handling segment on slide number 19. Q4 was no turning point for the segment. At a stable number of passengers, revenue growth was solely driven by price effects in the fourth quarter.
On top of the operational development and higher cost of labor, we booked an EUR 8 million staff-related provision to reduce the headcount in the subdivision of the segment. Consequently, EBITDA in the fourth quarter was clearly negative and turned the full year results below the previous year. For the year ahead, we need to restore the financial stability. Therefore, we have already raised the central infrastructure charges by close to 8% and will further reduce the number of external staff. As a consequence, we expect an improvement in segment EBITDA, but still expect to remain in the negative area in fiscal year 2025. Key headwind for the segment remains the loss-making Lufthansa contract, which we will have to renew upon expiration in the next 12 to 24 months. Our final segment, international activities and services, is performing clearly better. I'm now on slide number 20.
The international segment again showed a strong underlying earnings momentum. Despite the closure and gradual reopening of Porto Alegre Airport, revenues and EBITDA grew strongly on a full year basis. Key drivers for the revenue increase were our investments in Fraport Greece, Fraport USA, and Lima Airport. At the EBITDA level, we recorded a very good result, in particular bearing the following effects in mind. In 2023, Fraport USA recorded a compensation for the early termination of the Pittsburgh Masterlease concession in the amount of roughly EUR 11 million. Moreover, Fraport Greece was positively impacted by COVID compensations in the amount of about EUR 34 million in the year 2023, while in 2024, Fraport Greece just recorded COVID compensations of EUR 28 million, so a minus of EUR 6 million compared to the previous year.
Additionally, the closure of Porto Alegre Airport and lower compensation payments led to a reduced EBITDA for Fraport Brazil of roughly EUR 16 million. Looking ahead, we are confident that the international segment will continue its growth path also this year and will further increase its EBITDA and EBIT. Ladies and gentlemen, let me summarize our disclosure today. Our Frankfurt and international divisions reported good overall year-over-year earnings growth. Despite the challenging environment, we fulfilled all our group targets we set for the past year. Our group EBITDA clearly outperformed the pre-COVID level, despite Frankfurt traffic remaining well and significantly below 2019. While the international airports will continue their volume growth in 2025, we expect a positive momentum in Frankfurt as of this month or end of this month.
Our major CapEx programs are coming to an end, and we signed a major agreement on airport charges in Frankfurt to provide visibility on the development of our revenue side in the next four years or for the next four years. New CapEx projects are either stopped or postponed. Therefore, we consequently pursue our path to turn around our free cash flow. This year will mark a first big step as we guide a free cash flow, which is very close to break-even or even break-even. Our break-even target here excludes any extra gains from divestments. For the next year, we are confident to achieve a clearly positive free cash flow. Having said this, ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to thank you for your attention, and we can start the Q&A session now.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode and eventually turn off the volume from the webcast while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from Ruxandra Haradau-Doser from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Matthias, great to hear that you are continuing until 2028. It makes lots of sense for Fraport. My first question is on retail. Do you have retail contracts in Terminal 2 running out this year, and do you expect to prolong these contracts until T2 will close next year? Second, in November, you indicated CapEx will be above EUR 1.5 billion in 2024. On CapEx for FY2025, I quote Matthias, we are working on a number which is below EUR 1.1 billion as a group CapEx for 2025. CapEx for 2024 was EUR 1.7 billion, and the guidance for this year is a CapEx of EUR 1.1 billion. There are lots of questions from investors today about potential overrun. Could you maybe give some details on these higher figures than mentioned in November? Third, could you please update us on the PRG? Will it start operations at the same time with the rest of T3, and have the retail areas been already rented in PRG?
The final question, the new EU Commission has been in office for a few months. Do you have already signals, and what are your expectations, Stefan, about the priorities in the aviation sector of the EU Commission during the current legislative period? Thank you very much.
Start. Okay. Thank you for your questions. Starting with CapEx. Absolutely correct what you said. We guided EUR 1.5 billion. We ended up with EUR 1.73 billion. This is an overrun. The reason for the overrun was the EUR 200 million, what we always saw as a risk regarding T3. Today, we have to say that the overrun has been realized. This is not good, but on the other side, it's over now. Looking forward, we do not expect any additional cost overrun regarding T3. Everything is fine.
We are going to open after Easter holidays in 2026, and the rest of the CapEx is in line with what years ago has been guided. This is past. Looking forward, looking forward means now in 2025, you mentioned we guided now 1.1. I said it will be below 1.1. Let me say we have a discrepancy of perhaps EUR 50 million, and you can believe us, or I think you are convinced that we are doing all to end up with a number which is shortly below 1.1. At the end of the day, to control the outflow for CapEx depends really on what happened in the last two weeks of a year. When I look back at what happened in December 2024, there was an outflow in a three-digit amount area.
At the end of the day, we have to see whether it's 1.1 or a little bit less. Our target is always to realize a number which is below EUR 1.1 billion. All retail contracts was a question regarding retail contracts. They are not running out. Everything is awarded and will continue in Terminal 1.
Correct me when I'm wrong. Terminal 2, the retail contracts will be finalized in end of second quarter because the airlines will be moved from Terminal 2 to Terminal 3 in a staggered approach, probably three or four waves in the second quarter next year. Terminal 2 will be taken out of operation. We have solutions with the concessionaire there. That's no problem. There's no further penalty or something like this to pay.
All contracts regarding Terminal 3 are awarded, and they are preparing for taking over then latest up to April next year. This is working on Terminal 3. Regarding PRG, yes, we will start operations simultaneously with Terminal 3, but it will be mainly on the check-in side, land side. From today's point of view, no operation on the pier itself because there we have enough capacity in the first step in pier ACA or HNJ. On the priorities regarding the EU Commission, the top priority stays with carbon leakage. There are a lot of professional advisors who are giving solutions to the EU Commission. Yesterday, I heard a study from Ernst & Young or EY, which would help very much. That is the top priority from our side.
Another priority is, of course, the question how it goes ahead with the airport and airline package on ground handling, on charges, and on slots. I think these are the three packages. The EU Commission is at the moment just investigating whether they should open those packages up or not. We expect probably somewhere by summer or late summer, any further indication from the EU Commission, but these are the two top priorities from our side.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thanks.
The next question comes from Christian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one, can you give us some initial indication on CapEx and free cash flow in 2026? The second one, zooming in on Fraport on Frankfurt, the midterm maintenance CapEx. So 2026, 2027 was roughly the midterm maintenance CapEx. The third one, when Terminal 3 will open, could you give us ballpark what is the incremental OPEX you will incur, Terminal 3 versus Terminal 2 in a full year of operation? The last one, if you allow me, just on capital allocation, what is the pecking order midterm, deleveraging, dividend, acquisition, any color there? Thank you.
Regarding free cash flow, again, target in this year 2025 is break-even, in 2026 showing clear and significant positive free cash flow. Driver for this is CAPEX because, let me say, the EBITDA increase will be there, but this is not a big step up. This is also clear given the traffic momentum in the moment in Frankfurt. Looking now, assuming the 1.1, or as Mr. Matthias Zieschang said, perhaps 1.05, we have to see at the end of the day.
This is a starting point for further considerations in 2026. You have to see that in 2026, also the second expansion phase of Lima is over. There is a further drop of the Lima CapEx, a significant drop, as well as a further drop regarding CapEx for T3 because we are going to open after Easter holidays in 2026. Of course, we have a delay of some payments. These are the two drivers determining the free cash flow generation in 2026. The exact CapEx indication, it's too early, but let me say in the second half of this year, then we come for a guidance for 2026 when we clearly see what will be the final outcome in 2025.
Regarding long-term sustainable CapEx, when you look now on the numbers in the presentation on, I don't know its slide number, where I show the bridge coming from the net at 2023 to the net at 2024, you have, let me say, a proven track record looking on CapEx for Brazil and Greece. For 16 airports, we are spending EUR 50 million for maintenance. This is a good number. When you look on other CapEx, mostly Frankfurt, the EUR 449 million, if you put all together, you're talking about EUR 500 million, which is a good indication, having also in mind that in these EUR 449 million, we are talking in investments in infrastructure in Frankfurt. We are also talking in investments in some investments in cars, equipment, etc.
When I'm going to mention equipment, this is also equipment for Terminal 3, like, for example, office furniture, etc., IT equipment, which is more or less one-off. The CapEx for Germany, we say, I do not know the translation and help me in English for equipment, is in the moment higher than in the future. From today's perspective, I would say the EUR 500 million is a very conservative indication for all-including maintenance CapEx for all group airports looking forward. If you already deduct the EUR 1.2 billion for T3 and for Lima CapEx, based just on the numbers from 2024, you see already the strong free cash flow generation in a year where the EBITDA is on a level of EUR 1.3 billion. You know also our long-term target.
This is then the leverage to achieve a free cash flow generation, which is higher than this, what we would have shown already in 2024 without expansion CapEx.
Further questions have been on the additional operational costs on Terminal 3. That's a year in between next year because on the one side, Terminal 2 is still open for half a year at least, and Terminal 3 has to be prepared already now because we already now have to hire some people. In general terms, overall segments, I would say it's roughly 200 people, which we have to hire for fire brigade, for operations, for IT, which is not saying that we need those 200 people long-term, but for the in-between time at least, long-term probably 100 people more.
On the other side, we have very good results from tenders on the maintenance side, what we do with external companies. Yes, we can give you probably after we have opened up Terminal 3, a better estimate what are the long-term aspects on this. On the other side, we also then have higher retail earnings. There are some additional costs in for next year. That's right. We hire those people already now. On the other side, it's included already in the guidance we gave you. There is no big downturn. Regarding the long-term ratio, you asked on debt to equity, what's our focus? I got your question correct. Yes, we have at the moment a leverage of 160% debt, net debt to equity. We clearly mentioned that we want to bring this down. Is there one guidance? No, there's not the one figure.
We gave you the indication that net debt to EBITDA should be closer in the long term at least to the number five. It is now 6.4. That means on the other side also that net debt to equity should be in the range of, you name it, 80 to 120%. It depends very much how the market conditions are. One thing is clear for the next years, and I would say at least the next three, four years, there is no big appetite, no big appetite on external growth by external acquisitions. If at all, then these are smaller projects or structured projects. As Matthias mentioned already, we are very strict on CapEx and try to keep it down as much as possible.
Thank you very much. Sorry, will you pay any dividends before you get to that 80 to 120% debt to equity?
Yes. A clear answer, yes, we will. We have to get much closer. Let me answer the other way around. First, we have to be free cash flow positive. As mentioned before, the probability to pay in 2026 for 2025 is a low one, but it's existing if there's a lot of tailwinds. A lot of tailwinds for the business. There would be a very good growth if we come out this year with very good results. If we see that the business is really moving, especially also in Frankfurt, the international business I'm quite optimistic on, but especially on Frankfurt, that's a growth rate that's really going up. New aircraft are coming in and are operated in addition and not just replacing the old ones. That's a Lufthansa topic.
There could be that we even pay a dividend in 2026, but it would be a low dividend compared to the range of 40 to 60%, which is the normal one. For 2027, in 2027 for the year 2026, I'm absolutely convinced that we will pay a dividend, but that has to be decided at that time in two years from now. We will have discussions on this. We have already discussions on this, and we'll see how the business is going this year. We are not waiting to achieve finally the five or the 100% or 120% or something like this.
The next question comes from Elodie Rall from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll have two. The first one is on the outlook for traffic. You gave us a bit of an update on Lufthansa capacity issues as well as the constraints that you're facing from the German government on tax and regulations, so hurting the aviation industry. I was wondering, first of all, if you are having any conversation with anyone from the new government, although I know it's still a big moving path there, but if they have a more constructive attitude towards aviation in Germany, and if the outlook is looking more positive for traffic in 2026 as a result, and when you think it can be back to 2019 level. That's my first question. The second question is on ground handling. Obviously, disappointing again, negative in 2025 still expected. Do you think it can be turning positive from 2026? Thanks.
Thank you for your questions. On Lufthansa capacity issues, your question was more on the government relations. We all together, whether it's Lufthansa or we, whether it's the German association on airports, on airlines, or on aviation in general, we all have the same position, and we had good discussions with the two parties who probably will form the next government. That means the CDU and the SPD, and they all understand the issue. They understand that the tax, the aviation tax, plus the other components, especially on ATC, of course, the sharp increase over there, that this is too high and that they would have to resolve it. The signals are very good. On the other end, I also have to say it's not signed. It's not a done deal. They are now in the coalition discussions and the coalition contract negotiations.
We have to stay on this topic, and we can give you an update then probably on the May call for the first quarter to see whether it's in the coalition contract because there we have to get it in. That's most important. It's not just because of Frankfurt Airport or because of Lufthansa. It's in general also the competitiveness of the aviation market, Germany, for the German export-oriented companies and so on because we are losing more and more direct connections into the world. That's really an important issue for German industry in general. Yes, I'm slightly optimistic, and I'm probably more than 50% probability that I would say, yes, something will happen, but it's not a done deal. That's absolutely clear. We are now 22% worse or negative compared to other European markets on the recovery compared to 2019. Frankfurt is on 87%.
German average is on 83%. That we come back to the 2019 levels, so pre-Corona level, that will not be possible in one or two years because we also have to handle that growth, which hopefully is coming then, but it will take at least three, four years minimum to achieve these levels. I'm quite optimistic that there is a chance if the German aviation tax is taken away, canceled, if we get positive signals. Sorry to say this, but the Greens are not for sure, not any longer a member of the next coalition. That's for us in this industry positive. The SPD and the CDU are much more positive related to aviation. They see this point. That's at least a lot of tailwinds. That's positive. It's a new aircraft.
I mentioned the signal you also got from the press conference of Lufthansa that they are coming at least on the 787 somewhere in second half. That's also a positive message. Hopefully, they will get it through. There are some positive signals that we should see much better 2026 and 2027 with higher growth rates then. On ground handling, we are working there on productivity measurements. We are working along the company on productivity topics, on programs, on projects. Especially on ground handling, the most important thing is in the negotiation and the new contract with Lufthansa, and you will not find it in the numbers before the year 2027. Okay?
Great. Thanks very much.
The next question comes from Carlos Caburrasi from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Hello everyone. Thank you for the presentation. I'm fulfilling my questions. Two quick ones from me. First, considering the restructure investments program, I was wondering if you could give us a hint in terms of CapEx per annum for the rest of the decade. The second, which is actually related to the first one, do you expect a meaningful impact from the lower near-term CapEx on your 2030 free cash flow target? T hank you.
As I mentioned, we have two steps looking forward. In this year, EUR 1.1 billion or even lower. In 2026, a clearly reduced number compared to 2025. In the second half of this year, we will give you a clearer guidance on what will happen exactly with CapEx in 2026. Looking forward, you see maintenance CapEx. I already explained about EUR 500 million for the group level, which is a good indication, including all 30 assets which we have today.
This is determining, let me say, the long-term base CapEx. We have no intention to go for big acquisitions at the moment. I think this is the best guidance as of today what will happen in 2030. Frankly spoken, I'll give you today an exact guidance for 2030. This is not serious.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi there. Can you just help me understand why the pickup in Porto Alegre in Brazil has been so slow? Because the January data looked very slow, and it looked like the capacity is quite slow, whilst the Florianopolis for the Swiss continues to trade so well. Why hasn't the traffic flowed back more promptly to Porto Alegre?
I thought earlier last year, you were very confident that you would get full compensation for the closure impact of Porto Alegre. Yet, that's not completely clear to me. Is there more compensation to come in the course of 2025 for the closure of Porto Alegre in 2024? My one other question would be, what's going on in the ground handling market with the competitor? Did Swissport finally get themselves up and running? Are they running smoothly? Previously, you said that given the challenges to the ground handling market, notwithstanding clearly the uneconomic contract with Lufthansa from your perspective, you were quite keen to hand over contracts to the competitor to reduce your exposure to ground handling. Has anything happened to lose other contracts apart from Lufthansa?
That is with Porto Alegre. The indications we get from the market, we get also from our daughter company in Brazil, are very positive from Porto Alegre. This is still a little bit slower at the beginning now, beginning of this year, the next month. That's just because the airlines have to restore the capacities. They have to change aircraft, which are flying from other destinations back to Porto Alegre. They have to market those initiatives, but they will come. The signals we know are very positive, even supported by the state of Rio Grande do Sul. There, I'm quite optimistic. Full compensation, yes, we get a full compensation.
Probably what we should have discussed more in detail, that there have been restructurings on faults, which have been known in the infrastructure of EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million, I think was the number, which are not due to the flooding, which have been known before that we have to do it, which we have done now in that big program together. They will, of course, get no compensation on. That was a smaller number, and we got a compensation of more than EUR 80 million, I think. Something like this, I think, is the number. We invested, including those faults. We knew that this has to be done over the next years, which we now did. It's a total program, roughly EUR 100 million or EUR 95 million or something like this.
On ground handling here in Frankfurt, it was not our task at all to handle it with a certain license as it happened. We cannot avoid if more and more airlines wanted to be handled by Fraport Ground Services. The market share even went up, some because of the subcontracting solution, which was not our favor to do it this way, but which is the case for the remaining months or for the next months in this year. We have to see how the market share is developing. It was not our task to increase the market share. It was a topic by the airlines that they wanted to be handled by Fraport or Fraport Ground Services on the one side, and that Swissport on the other side was not able to handle them. It could be an interim, and we have to see how it goes ahead then.
The next question comes from Dario Maglione from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi. Three questions for me. One on free cash flow for 2025. I mean, you mentioned it's going to be close to break even. How close is my first question. Second question on CapEx for Frankfurt. You mentioned before the maintenance CapEx for the group of EUR 500 million. But also, I think you mentioned before that for Frankfurt specifically, the maintenance CapEx would be around EUR 350 million per year. However, you're now guiding for 2025 at EUR 400 million. My question is, what is the maintenance CapEx for Frankfurt specifically? The last question on ground handling, just big picture, has been loss-making for five years, and it will not be break-even on an EBITDA level next year. Why not exit in this business or divest it? Thanks.
Let's start with CapEx, and let's focus on slide number 13, where you can see all the metrics of calculation for 2025. What is a given, and what are the variables? A given are the net interest elements because gross debt is given, interest rates are given, taxes are more or less given. The minus 400 is a given and is not a variable. Also, the IFRS 16 items, as well as fixed concession payments, are given. We have minus 400, which is not variable. We have minus 100, which is not variable. Also, the inflow of dividends of about EUR 100 million, of course, depends on the operational success or performance. I think there is a very high probability that we are going to receive EUR 100 million. Three elements on the picture are not variable.
What is variable? A little bit on the EBITDA side, depending from traffic, whether it's a little bit better and lower. Second, it's always extremely difficult to have a precise calculation. What is the outflow for CapEx? EUR 50 million plus minus is always a natural, let me say, white noise, so to say. It can be a little bit higher, a bit lower. Again, our target is to come out with a number which is below EUR 1.1 billion. You also see on the slide, networking capital changes. This is not principal hope. We know already now some items. What is it? Refund of VAT, etc., outside Germany. We know that some elements are running in favor of us so that the networking capital runs positive, and this we have included.
Nevertheless, you see always regarding CapEx plus minus EUR 50 million regarding networking capital changes plus minus EUR 30 million, and always regarding the final number of EBITDA, which is driven and generated by passenger numbers, some uncertainty. You see on the picture, it's very close. It can, at the end of the day, with some tailwind, it can even break even. That would be our favorite. It can also be that in a double-digit number, we are below break even. Important is looking forward, we are extremely close to break even or even will touch it. Very important is that the year after, in 2026, we will show you positive free cash flow as already since years ago guided looking ahead. Maintenance CapEx, again, I told you and explained the EUR 500 million, which includes also CapEx for IT, for equipment, etc.
You have always some volatility behind this number. You cannot say we are talking about 30 assets in our portfolio, and nobody in the world can say with exact EUR 483 million maintenance CapEx was. You have always some things which pop up overnight or other things which do not happen or will be delayed. If you, in your matrix, in your calculation, your Excel sheets, if you work with a EUR 500 million number looking forward, you have a very good base number.
Regarding ground handling, the most important issue there is the 2018 signed contract. I think it was 2018, a long-term contract with Lufthansa and Lufthansa Group, which includes some price increases, but they are very limited. The world thereafter, after Corona and so on, changed.
The staff costs increase are much higher than the price increase we have in that contract, and that's the main reason for the losses in that segment. Combined with a peak structure, which is already above 2019 limits, 2019 structure of the traffic, so very high peaks, that gives some unproductivity. Combined with the topics that we all together have to challenge, that the ATC capacity leads to, in Europe, not in Germany, but in Europe in general, including Germany, leads to high delays by ATC because a lot of regulated slots. That means that the ground handling people are longer on the aircraft than they should be. That's in a mixture that we are fixed in with this contract with Lufthansa. Of course, you could sell, but there would be the wrong timing to sell something like this.
We mentioned already before that we have to go into the negotiations because the contract with Lufthansa is running out 2026, and we'll start that negotiation somewhere over the next 12 months, I'm quite sure. Thereafter, you can think about the topic, but even then, you should take into account, and that's the reason we are in that ground handling. I'm not saying with that market share, but that we are in that ground handling business because we have a very, very high portion, much higher than other airports on transfer passengers. We need a high stability on the ground operations, and that's running in a very, very good way. That's absolutely fine from the stabilization point of view. There are no delays any longer by ground handling. That's not the issue. My second important point is to bring out the financials back.
For that, we have to have the negotiations with Lufthansa. Thereafter, we can take questions like you, but for the next two to three years, that would not be a solution on that side.
Thank you.
As a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The next question comes from Christian Cohrs from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Sorry to come back on the ground handling issue, but looking into your financial history, even before 2018, the financial performance of this division was muted. Is there any chance, or do you see any chance for a sustained improvement that will allow a return on Fraport asset that is exceeding the WACC? So far as I can look into your financial history, this has never been the case.
Yeah, are there any things how you could improve your pricing power in this specific business field? Second question relates to St. Petersburg. If I remember correctly, your investment into St. Petersburg comprised an equity stake, but also I think you have given some loans. Now you have sold your stake. Are the loans still outstanding, and is there any chance for these to recover? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks for both questions. You're absolutely right regarding ground handling. Whether we exceed the WEC, that's of course an ambitious question, but even if Lufthansa is in that call, I don't know. It can be absolutely clearly our ambition is to avoid black numbers, and we are preparing for this, and that's no question at all. We have to avoid black numbers, so we have to make profit in ground handling, and that's no question at all.
Yeah, if I get sometimes a signal, somebody asked me today that Lufthansa is on the way to prepare themselves for self-handling, fine, then they should do it. I'm absolutely fine with this. I can just tell you we go for black numbers and we go for profit. Sorry, I understand that the top customer has to survive and so on. They have to do their business. We have to do our business. That's absolutely fine. We bring a very good quality. Yes, the negotiations will be difficult, but that's our responsibility to be prepared for those negotiations, and we will be prepared for these negotiations.
It's not just Lufthansa. We have also the central infrastructure in the segment, which covers 50% of the revenues. Here in this year, we are going to increase the prices by 7.8%, and there is headroom for 2026 to do the same or even a little bit higher. This is not, let me say, the compensation for Lufthansa, but one segment which covers 50% of the revenue, more than EUR 300 million, will then have price impact already in this year, 7.8%, and next year, if it is, for example, 9.5%. You can see that we are talking about EUR 30 million just price increase regarding 50% of the total revenue of the segment.
On ground handling, just to add this, you know that we have 90 airlines here in Frankfurt and with all other 89 airlines. Yeah, we have to take Lufthansa as a group, but all other airlines which are not belonging to the Lufthansa group will achieve really high price increases because the costs are so much running on the staff side. These price increases with those airlines have to be much more than 10%, much more, much higher. That is working, and they understand this. I am quite sure that also Lufthansa understands what they get as a quality and that they will pay for this. Regarding St. Petersburg, everything is sold on that side, equity and loans, so they will not be coming in anything else. The return on the St. Petersburg exposure has been a single-digit return CRGR number, so roughly around 5 to 6% in total over the years.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions on Terminal 2, if you allow me. Firstly, could you just remind us what is the latest regarding the upgrade and the refurbishment of the terminal? What is the total CapEx that will be allocated to it? When you mentioned EUR 500 million group CapEx medium term, do you already include the refurbishment of Terminal 2, just to clarify? My second question, can you just confirm that Terminal 2 will remain included in your regulated asset base during the refurbishment? Thank you.
Yeah. First of all, clear answer, T2 will stay in the regulated asset base because we will take it again into operation in the future. When T3 is opened based on a staggered approach and order process, then the second half of 2026, we are going temporarily to close Terminal 2.
We are going into a long-lasting planning phase to be very precise what to do in this total refurbishment of the terminal. We have time because we have this Terminal 3. We have more or less twice as much capacity compared with Terminal 2. We have to see when we are going to start with the refurbishment with Terminal 2. We have a lot of time looking forward. After the planning phase, we have a precise amount what will be invested. This will spread over, I would say, 10 years, up to 10 years. This will not significantly. Of course, it can be then in some individual year, it can be more than EUR 500 million. This is for sure. Overall, it is not a number which changes this baseline.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from José Manuel Arroyas from Santander. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon. I have three questions. In relation to Terminal 3, you said earlier that there was always some risk of CapEx overrun and that that materialized in 2024. Could you tell us what happened this year and what gives you confidence that any such thing will not happen in the coming years? My second question is on the Terminal 1 Concourse B project. I missed your explanation as to why you stopped it. Could you tell us also what Fraport misses by not having this project ready? My last question is on slide nine, where you guide on the uplift to retail revenues that Terminal 3 will provide. You mentioned EUR 30 million incremental revenues coming from Terminal 3 compared to Terminal 2.
On the slide, you mentioned that that figure includes also your expectation that traffic will be higher. Could you isolate that uplift assuming traffic remains constant? Thank you.
Let me start. On Terminal 1, yes, you are right. We mentioned this, that we stopped the security relocation more to the land side because it is a very expensive project. It takes several years to get through. That means that we would have seen in Terminal 1 over the next at least five years constant constructions. For that, we thought that at the moment, the benefit is not big enough. We should more focus on CT scanners in B and most efficient processes. That is the main topic. There are some other topics around processes, how processes would have been changed, and how long ways would have got if we would have realized this now.
We said, "No, we take more time for this." That is the reason that for the time being, we stopped that project on Terminal 1. Nevertheless, we are very much on customer focus, and that is the reason we will bring in the existing environment. We will change it to CT scanners and with a much higher capacity. On Terminal 3, the main reason is, yes, the cost overrun we indicated already. As mentioned, we will be more on the EUR 200 million side. All CapEx is done. All tenders are done. As I mentioned, the construction is through, and everything is done on that side. We are now really in the final jobs on all interior measurements, all cabling, and so on. There could be, of course, some smaller acceleration jobs or something like this.
From the CapEx point of view, there shouldn't be a big topic any longer. We never discussed on such a big project whether there are an additional 10 or 20 million. In principle, we are through there, and that's the reason we are confident that we know what the number finally will be. On Terminal 2 and regarding Terminal 3, we don't give spend per passenger or per terminal. What we can tell you is that we have 50% in addition floors and for sure also square meters and for sure also spend Terminal 3 if I compare directly with Terminal 2. It's not helping you very much, I know, because we are not giving any spend per passenger number for Terminal 2 or for Terminal 3 and for Terminal 1.
I can just tell you that the location of retail and gastro, food and beverage is much better with the centralized marketplace in Terminal 3 and that we see expect a heavy uplift. They are also on that spend, which will be on group numbers in total, of course, smaller. With a plus 50%, what we expect Terminal 3 to Terminal 3 in a full year range 2027, you will see also an increase in the average number in total.
The next question comes from Graham Hunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Actually, just one from me. I just wanted to come back to dividends. How are you thinking about that from 2026 or 2027 whenever it does come through? I think you did speak earlier on the payout policy historically, but given the step down in CapEx and significant step up in free cash flow, plus if you did not pay one in 2026, would there not be scope to see a meaningful increase in the payout policy versus what you have done historically? Just wanted to sort of hear your thoughts on how you are thinking about that when you do start paying a dividend. Thanks.
What we gave you as an indication is that for the year 2025, we expect free cash flow break-even, maybe slightly negative, but around break-even. That means if we would pay a dividend in the year 2026 for the full year 2025, it would be paid out of debt. That would mean that we would, if at all, pay a smaller dividend, not in the range of 40 to 60%.
That is not decided, and it depends very much whether we have a lot of tailwinds, that we see that really new aircraft are coming in, that the aviation tax is taken out, and that we see that business is really getting up also in Frankfurt and Germany in general, is much more positively seen as it is these days. If we start paying in 2027 for the year 2026, I would expect that the dividend payment would be in the historical range of 40% to 60%. Also, to be absolutely clear, that is finally the decision we have then to take, and that is taken also by the supervisory board and then finally by the annual meeting. That would be probably our recommendation from today's point of view. Let's see how the world then is.
Okay. Thanks.
The next question comes from Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Just two quick ones. You mentioned that into 2026, you do not really see much EBITDA growth. I'm a little surprised because you've got, I think, you're very guided for around 4% traffic growth that year. You've got also tariff increase. You've got ground handling getting better. You should get at least for half a year a bit of uplift on retail. Do you think most of that is offset by higher cost? That's what you're trying to flag. That's point number one. And then point number two, just coming back on the retail upside for Terminal 3, I think José Manuel, I'm a little bit taken back. I think you've said on previous conference calls, T2 was around EUR 2 per pax. What you're flagging is 50% increase on that.
EUR 3 per pax spending for T3, that's still below the average. That looks spectacularly low. Just wanted to know if you could clarify a little bit there. Thank you.
First of all, our guidance is not modest. We said it's a moderate single-digit increase. It's a lot of fantasy how it could be. This depends really from the tailwind coming from the traffic. Again, single digit times EUR 1.3 billion, the fantasy is big. This is one side. On the other side, there's one elephant in the room, let me say, a variable which we cannot control. This is a wage increase. In the moment, there are negotiations with the unions, Verdi, regarding the TVUD. This wage agreement is absolutely open, and we don't know what will be the outcome. We are not negotiating.
The Ministry of Inner Affairs is responsible in cooperation with the federal states and Germany. Just to give you a number, 1% wage increase equals EUR 10 million in our P&L. This makes it so difficult to give you—you want to have a precise guidance for the year 2025. If you are going to tell me what is the outcome of the wage increase, I tell you exactly what is our EBITDA outcome. Is it 4%, 5%, 6%? Nobody knows. You see variance, again, EUR 10 million per 1% increase. That is the reason why it is so difficult to have a precise outlook.
That's the reason why we say single-digit increase can be high, can be low, more or less depending from passenger growth on one side, which we cannot control in Frankfurt, and second, outcome of the wage negotiations now in the moment, let me say, between Verdi on one side and the federal states and the Ministry of Inner Affairs on the other side. Also retail, I think 50% increase. It's the same story. We are going to tell you that the increase will be 50%. This is a good number. But exactly, nobody knows. We have more space. We have nice restaurants. We have fantastic shops then. Whether it's 50%, 60, 40, or even 70, we have to see.
I think it's a good indication, and it doesn't make any sense to promise a high number, which at the end of the day cannot be controlled by us, but by the spending behavior and the deep pockets or not deep pockets of the passengers.
Thank you. Thank you. If I may, in fact, the comment on EBITDA was more in 2026. I think it's Matthias who entered that when talking about break-even free cash flow. He did not expect much EBITDA growth in that year. I was just wondering, what were the offsets? Yeah.
2020 to 2026, that's a year where Terminal 2 is getting out of operation, Terminal 3 is getting into operation, whereas this additional cost, as I mentioned already, the cost of the additional OPEX and so on.
What Matthias mentioned, what we have seen yesterday from the wage agreement, from the negotiations, the employees, the inner ministry offered 5.5%. I do not know whether this is on 12 months or whether this is on which period ever, and they could not agree. It is in a break situation. The result will be more than 5.5%, but hopefully then for a longer period. In 2026, we will have the full impact on that. It is a question whether we get a stronger traffic growth, yes or no. Are the additional aircraft then really in? Is Pratt & Whitney getting that issue a little bit less? These are the components which are a little bit too early at the moment where we mentioned, yeah, probably it is more moderate growth, whatever moderate is. I am absolutely in line with Matthias. Whatever you discuss in between 2 to 5% is moderate for me. 5% on 1.3 or 1.4 is already a lot.
All right. Thank you.
We do have a follow-up question from Christian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for allowing me to add. The Terminal 3 remaining CapEx, your table in the appendix is very helpful, but could you remind us? You already guided for 2025, but could you give us a bit 2026, 2027, what's the remaining CapEx there just to confirm? Secondly, in your annual report, you talk about potential risk of CapEx EUR 300 million for the drainage of the runway in Frankfurt. I think you allocate a probability of 25 to 50% that at some point this may come through.
If the water authority company would trigger this CapEx, would this be on top of the EUR 500 million run rate you discussed earlier, or is it already included in that run rate? Any more color there would help. Thank you.
Let me take the second answer first. The second question is answering this first. That potential risk you will find in our annual report already for 5 to 10 years, I would say, maybe even longer. Sometimes, yes, we have to realize some smaller issues. The EUR 300 million is the total cost number. If it would come in, it would be my best estimate over several years, so it would be included in that number. It is not the one-off which you have to pay or have to invest in one year. It would be a long-term investment and spread over a lot of years.
That's not an issue for you, but we have to mention those risks. It could happen. That depends very much on the condition on water and on all the winter fluids there in the composition of the water and so on, the icing and so on. At the moment, it's getting better, so the risk is for sure less, but we have to see how the next winters are.
Your question regarding further outflows for Terminal 3, you know from 2025, which you can see in our presentation, is up to about EUR 400 million in this year. In 2026, what is the final number then in 2025? As of today, I would say about EUR 250 million, and then a very small amount remaining in 2027. If you put all the numbers together, also accumulated from the past, then you end up with EUR 4.2 billion, maximum EUR 4.3 billion.
This is what we already guided years ago, 4 billion plus 200 million cost overrun, which today is a given. We will end up exactly this, including the 200 million cost overrun. Full stop.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Christoph Nanke for any closing remarks.
Thank you, and thank you all for participation, for your interesting questions. We in investor relations are looking forward to continue our talks in the next days and weeks, phone calls, meetings, and conferences. I wish you a good rest of the day, and yeah, happy to see you soon. Bye.