Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Fraport AG Interim Figures Q1, 3 Months 2024 Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Youssef, the Chorus Call Operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and that this conference is being recorded. You can register for the question queue by pressing star and one on your telephone. If you would like to take back your question, please press star and zero. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference will not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Christoph Nanke. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Youssef. Welcome also from my side. Happy to have you all online. It's a new year, so we started something new. As you noticed, we have published Matthias' presentation already this morning as an on-demand webcast. Happy to receive your feedback later or the next days when you talk to IR, not only about the figures but also on that. Consequently, since the presentation has already been published, we will jump today directly into Q&A. I'm happy to hand over for the Q&A.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode and eventually turn off the volume from the webcast while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star one at this time. The first question comes from Carlos Caburassi, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Hi everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. First, I want to focus on the regulated EBITDA. In the webcast, you've explained that this is largely attributed to a change in the reimbursement system for passenger screening. From what you said, I assume that the federal police will pay in the next quarters, and there shouldn't be an impact whatsoever on a full-year basis. What is the rationale behind this change, and is it something you had anticipated? Finally, on the regulated EBITDA, are you happy with consensus for your expectation, which stands at EUR 406 million? Second, can you share the moving parts of Antalya's development in the quarter? Retail revenues have materially decreased year on year, and you also point to some deferred taxes. Please, could you shed some light on these two? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you for your questions. Starting with the first one, the security mechanism. It's a little bit of a complicated topic. In the past, we offered security services, and these created costs, primarily personnel expenses for the staff at the security lines. Quarter by quarter, these costs have been calculated, and we received the money from the federal police, exactly this amount, which was spent for the security services. This was the old mechanism, the old regime. You know that we changed the system totally in a way that we took over the responsibility. In combination with the takeover of the responsibility, also this reimbursement system was changed. Further, in old times, we received the money from the federal police, and the federal police collected the money from the airlines.
Now we have a direct reimbursement system in a way that the principle is that all our costs have to be fully covered by the revenue stream coming from the airlines, in a way that in the beginning of the year, we are calculating our cost levels, the personnel input on one side, and on the other side, we have to make an assumption how many passengers we do expect for the following year. The price, which is calculated per passenger, is a result from the estimated cost level divided by the planned number of passengers. In the moment, I think the calculated price is EUR 11, just give me EUR 11.86. Now, in the first quarter, we have all the personnel behind the security line, so we have a certain cost level, which is determined by the number of employees.
On the other side, we have the number of passengers times EUR 11.86, and this is a revenue stream. Due to the seasonality of the traffic, this means in Q1 as well as in Q4, the number of passengers is always lower. We have a good number in Q2, and we have the peak in Q3. The new characteristic is that in the first quarter, the revenue stream is not covering the total cost of running the security lines. In the second quarter, it is more or less full coverage, while in the third quarter, we have an overshooting of the revenues compared to the costs. At the end of the third level, we make a final calculation for the rest of the year, whether our cost calculation has been correct on one side and on the other side, whether our tax calculation has been correct.
We have in principle five times per year the chance to change the price per passenger. For example, when in September we have the impression that the number of realized passengers will be lower, we make a new calculation and we are going to increase the EUR 11.86, or if we have more passengers than expected, we are going to reduce it a little bit so that at the end of the year, the total amount of revenues is exactly covering our cost level. It is a complicated mechanism, but this has to do with the takeover of the responsibility of the security services because now we are offering the services to the airlines and not like in the past, the federal police.
The effect is that in the first and in the fourth quarter, we have an undershooting of the revenue streams, while in Q2, and especially in Q3, we have an overshooting of the revenue stream compared to the cost level. This is a new mechanism, and in a like-for-like comparison to last year, we have, let me say, an undercoverage of nearly EUR 10 million in this year, which will be compensated in Q2 but primarily in Q3. Second question is the Antalya result. When you look on the numbers, this is disappointing. This has two reasons. We have on the operational side, we have a dispute with the former retailer [ORAT], so we sent them a cancellation on the contract because we have a new internal retailing company together with TAV, which is taking over all retail activities.
Urat, the old retailer, claimed that the contract is not canceled. This is a dispute, and now we are in an arbitration process. We think that based on the legal arguments, the case is on our side, but nevertheless, as a cautious businessman, we built some provisions. This element you find on the EBITDA level, and this is the reason why the EBITDA is lower than in the previous quarter. The second effect is that due to the late Easter holidays, also the number of passengers in the first three months is a little bit lower than in the previous year, and you see the strong recovery in April. This has to do with the shift of the Easter holidays. The second element of the Antalya profitability is a tax element, deferred taxes, and a complicated tax issue in Turkey.
In principle, when you are investing money in the infrastructure, you are going to receive a tax credit from the government, which you can use in future times to reduce your tax rate. This tax credit has to be capitalized and put in the balance sheet. This is denominated in Turkish lira, of course, but for us, our relevant currency is EUR. We have to translate this tax asset from Turkish lira into EUR, which we have in the balance sheet. Due to the significant depreciation of the Turkish lira, the EUR-denominated value of the tax credit has been reduced. This minus in the interest result of Antalya is the expression of this depreciation of this tax credit, which we have in the balance sheet of Antalya 1 as well as in Antalya 2. It is a pure one-off effect, no cash-out.
It's just a reduction of future tax profits or tax advantages, which are lower in EUR due to the depreciation, the huge depreciation of the Turkish lira.
Okay, thank you, Christoph. I would just like to follow up on the first one. I mean, you've said that you have the chance to change the price per passenger within the year.
At times, five times per year.
Five times a year. Do you also have the chance to change it in case something weird happened and you end up in the year under earning? Do you have the possibility to change that for next year? Do you have a rollover mechanism?
No, no. It's always in advance. That's the reason we have to make a very precise calculation. It can be that, let me say, in November, if at the end of the day we see a remaining deficit, which would come in December if, for example, we have been wrong with the final estimate of the passenger numbers, then the final price adjustment could happen end of November. It's always looking forward if at the end of the day there is a deviation, a positive one or a negative one. There is no carry-forward mechanism to the next year. That's the reason why we have to do this very precisely and to avoid any cost undercoverage at the end of the year. This is, let me say, the controllers have to do a good job.
Okay, very clear. Thank you, Christoph.
The next question comes from Elodie Rall, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on the labor agreement. You have shown the 3% increase this year and so on for the following year. If we resume, if we could just summarize basically the cost increase that you are seeing, I think you mentioned EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million. Basically a 4%-5% effect in terms of increase in wages for 2025. How does that compare to your assumption when you set guidance at the beginning of the year? Was that the central case, a better or worse outcome? That is my first question. My second question is if we have an update on discussion with the German government regarding the taxes and regulations that you have previously commented as having a significant detrimental effect on aviation in Germany.
My last question is on the U.S., whether you have seen any impact so far with regard to U.S. traffic and maybe spending of U.S. passengers in terminals as well. Thanks.
Yeah, thanks for the question. First one, comparing now the final wage increase based on the agreement with the unions compared to our financial plan, this is a little bit better than what we have in our financial plan. Your question is behind, of course, our guidance is based on the internal financial plan. We have a little headroom gained by the final settlement of these agreements. It is good or it is in favor of us, but it is not a big effect. Second, the new government, it is difficult to say what they are going to do. I think they have a lot of challenges, a lot of tasks. One thing is we think that two things will happen.
You know that when you look back in the last couple of years, the aviation tax was always year by year increased, and there was also an increase in this year. There is a clear commitment from the S ocial Democrats as well as from the Conservatives to stop this increase from this year. This will happen. What we have heard inofficially from the relevant politicians engaged in air traffic. The second element is there is a we have to, or the European airlines have to use sustainable aviation fuels. There is a ramp-up quote from the EU that year by year these SAF increments should increase.
On top of this, coming from the EU, the German government decided that with the beginning of this year, there should, on top of it, a so-called German percentage of additional SAF, and this will also be skipped so that we are on the same level like the other European airlines regarding the SAF blend quota, so to say. I think this is what we can expect realistically, whether they are going for further tax reductions in favor of the aviation industry, we have to see. Of course, from a lobbying perspective and regarding our lobbying activities, we are doing a lot of things together with the airlines. At the end of the day, we are talking about money, and everybody knows about the budget situation of the new government.
I would say the probability that on top of these two topics, which I mentioned, the probability is relatively low. Third question, U.S. traffic, U.S. impact. In the moment, we can't see anything. This has to do with, let me say, regarding the summer season, everything is booked, so to say. Let me say we have to see what will happen in autumn, whether there's a continuation of the good traffic or not. In the moment, we can't see any difficulties or problems. We have to go through the summer, and in autumn, then we have to see or to face reality. We are relatively optimistic that the current trend will continue.
Okay, thanks very much.
The next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu, UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one is on the operating cash flow target for 2025, the EUR 1.3 billion. I think this is roughly EUR 100 million more than in 2024. Now, if we look at Q1, I think even if we exclude this Greek variable payment that was dragging down your Q1, that implies that you still need to improve your operating cash flow for the next few quarters by around EUR 150 million to reach your target for the year. I guess my question is, can you elaborate on your confidence on reaching this target and maybe offer us a bit more details on the building blocks? The second one, looking at OPEX in Frankfurt, I believe in the first quarter, your OPEX was roughly EUR 30 million-EUR 35 million higher year over year. You talked about the wage deal and the impact there.
Could you give us an all-in number for 2025 in personnel and other expenses? What's roughly the incremental OPEX you expect in Frankfurt year over year? The last one, if I may, the retail spend per pax. You had very strong advertising in Q1, a strong improvement of EUR 0.10 year over year. The shops are a bit lower. Now, looking ahead, I think we are all aware of the stronger euro or the traffic mix, which may be slight headwinds to retail spend per pax for most of the airports out there. Could you talk a little bit about the tailwinds and what helps grow retail spend per pax, and how do you think the overall retail spend per pax growth year over year in 2025? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks for your question. The first one was regarding operating cash flow and free cash flow for the full year. In Q1, this was, let me say, influenced heavily by the payment of the variable concession fee regarding our Greek airports. This is just an element in the first quarter. Now, looking forward, we expect a strong summer season. This will reflect in good numbers in Q2 as well as in Q3 coming from the traffic, especially from our international activities, but also in Frankfurt. We expect a good summer season, always compared to also Q1. You see in April, the numbers are already strong. Let me say this expectation is based especially on the flight schedule of the non-Star Alliance airlines, especially Condor. Condor has increased significantly their capacities here in Frankfurt.
The information we are going to receive from Condor is very positive. They are happy. They build up a feeder system to reduce the strategic tie, so to say, to Lufthansa regarding feeder traffic. What we heard, this works very well. That is the reason why we are convinced that the other airlines at Frankfurt Airport are going to bring what they have promised for summer. This is a clear and significant improvement compared to the passenger numbers in last year. This you will find later on on the revenue side and on the EBITDA side. Regarding CapEx, you see the numbers in the first quarter. They are absolutely in line with our internal calculation. We gave you the positive information that the soft opening of Lima will take place in two days.
The final and official opening will happen on the 1st of June. That means this adventure is over and will also lead to a significant reduction of CapEx. You see also the first reduction of CapEx amounts regarding Terminal 3. Everything is in line with what we have expected. We are confident to end up with a total CapEx amount on group level exactly at this level, which we gave you in our guidance, EUR 1.1 billion. On the other side, regarding working capital, this is always a very complex thing. Here we know also, let me say, the seasonality of our working capital elements. This combination together leads to the expectation that we are able to exactly fulfill our target and our guidance, which we shared with you. Total costs in Frankfurt.
In the presentation, we gave you in guidance what is the outcome of the wage agreement. Coming pure from the wage increase, we see an upside of EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million. In combination with this, we have also a higher number of employees, especially or primarily in the ground handling segment. The combination of more employees on one side, higher wages on the other side, based on the actual agreement, led to a total regarding the side of Frankfurt and three segments, a total personnel cost increase of about EUR 100 million, while the material expense increase is very, very low, perhaps EUR 20 million compared to previous years. The inflation-driven impact coming from the last couple of years seems to be over. We are relaxed regarding further price increases on the material expense. Third question, retail spend per pax. You mentioned the elements.
We have three elements. We have the pure spending in the shops. We have the revenues from the restaurants, food and beverage, and advertisements. Advertisement, let me say the good progress and increase is continuing. Also in our restaurants, we see good progress and further increase, also based on additional space or additional restaurants in Terminal 1, concourse B. In retail itself, it is more or less flat. This has to do especially with our structure. You know that in the summer season, Lufthansa canceled the Beijing flight, which was not good for us because on this destination, we always welcomed a lot of Chinese with steep pockets. This was not a good structural impact. Due to the fact that when you look back, let me say we never showed this strong increase in the retail numbers, which our friends at our airports showed.
The upside did not happen. On the other side, in the moment, we do not see any risk that there will be a downside. With other words, looking forward, we expect a further modest or slight increase of all our retail as well as advertising numbers.
Thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. The next question comes from Andrew Lobbenberg, Barclays. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi there. Could you just take us down to Brazil and explain what is happening at Porto Alegre? Because the floodwaters cleared a while ago, and yet if we look over at your good friends from Zurich, they continue to be having a ball with Florianópolis, and Porto Alegre continues to struggle. When will you get your traffic back? I guess is my basic question. Could I just ask for a little bit of chat around, a bit of color around what we should think in terms of the modeling for the opening of Lima? Because obviously, we were potentially going to have a capital markets day, and that did not happen. How much depreciation comes in? How big an increase in retail might we expect for Lima? How optimistic are you?
I mean, Lufthansa seemed quite confident that they get a good lump of seven, eight, sevens in the summer or summer towards the autumn. What's that going to do for you guys?
Perhaps starting with the last one because your answer is very similar. We know that, first of all, we know six A350s are coming. This is a clear commitment. We know that also up to, I think, 10 787 should come. The question is, and this is an open question, how many old aircraft will be taken out from Lufthansa? This is a question which we always bring, so to say, to Lufthansa, but we did not receive any answer. In other words, I believe that they internally also do not know what they are going to do. I think they are looking at what are the booking numbers in the systems, how is the demand? They are week by week deciding later on when the aircraft are here whether they take out old ones or not.
This is a question mark, and we cannot give you an answer, and we did not get an answer from Lufthansa.
Yep.
As always. This is nothing new. Regarding Brazil, first of all, looking forward for the rest of the year, we have our financial plans. We are happy with the plans, and we are absolutely confident that at the end of the day, we will achieve our numbers. Starting with Fortaleza, last year, we had 5.7 million passengers. In this year, we expect a significant increase compared to last year. Clearly more than 6 million passengers, which is good, which would be a strong increase compared to the previous year. Fortaleza is absolutely fine. Second, we switch over to Porto Alegre. You mentioned the flooding and the closure of the airport. In former years, for example, 2019, we had about 8 million passengers.
Last year, because for six months the airport was closed, we went down to 3.9 million. We restarted the airport. Of course, it takes time for the airlines to bring back exactly this traffic, what they had in last year. From today's perspective, regarding the full year, I expect more than 7 million passengers at Porto Alegre. This would be a very good recovery and close to the very high number coming from 2019, which is always our benchmark level.
Just to be clear, that's really going to come late, right? Because it didn't kick up very much in April, did it?
Yes. Yeah. You have to remember, let me say, these airports do not have the same seasonality which we have in Europe with summer and very high and so on. It is more, let me say, the regular seasonality is relatively flattish. Yeah, but month by month, we expect a higher recovery. Again, for the actual and latest outlook, traffic-wise, it is more than 7 million for the full year.
Okay. Lima?
Lima. Yeah. First of all, the opening dates are well known. This week, soft opening and 1st of June, official opening with the president. This is now finally, and it is good that it is finally. The DNA started and based on a rep of about EUR 1 billion. We are going, of course, we have a lot of components inside the airport, but on average, you can take a depreciation time of 25 years. With other words, the determined or induced depreciation of this investment is about EUR 40 million per annum. Regarding retail, we have a huge increase of the retail space. Spending behavior is always good in Lima from both sides, retail as well as food and beverage. We have a lot of Americans there as transfer passengers, always eating and drinking.
We expect a clear upside on the retail side as well as a further clear upside on the passenger side. You have to see when you look at the first three or four months, the passenger growth rates have been very good despite the fact that we managed the traffic in the old exhausted terminal. Now you could a little bit see the potential, what we have and what we see in Lima looking forward. The last effect is that in the past, for the transfer passengers, there was no fee for the international transfer passengers. At that point in time, when we have the transfer from the old to the new terminal, we are going to collect also a fee for the transfer passengers, which is a further upside in the aviation segment of this airport.
Thank you. That's helpful.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Graham Hunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks very much for the questions. Maybe just two from me. First one on coming back to staff costs. Just wondered if you could speak a little bit more on the headcount number and what your expectations are for the rest of the year, and then maybe into next year as Terminal 3 opens. How close are you to kind of a more stable level of numbers there? Because I appreciate you've got the agreement locked in now, but the headcount still seems to be creeping up. And then second question just around ground services, sorry, ground handling. The revenue numbers there seemed a little bit higher than I was expecting, even notwithstanding the agreed fee increases you have on the infrastructure there. Just wondered if there are any one-offs in the revenue for ground handling in Q1. Thanks.
Yeah. Starting with headcount, and this headcount, of course, is related also to our ground services activity. When you look on the number of full-time equivalents, this went up. This has primarily to do with the staff in ground services. Let me say the number of employees on ground services, of course, is related to the expected passenger numbers. This is based on the information and indications which we are going to receive from the airlines. Going more or less two years back into the past, there have been a lot of complaints from our main customer that they have been that Lufthansa would have been constrained by our ground handling activities because we would not have been able to ramp up as fast as possible. That is the reason why Lufthansa could not show the growth, which they tried and intended to show.
There was a lot of pressure on us to speed up with recruiting more employees in ground handling to go for qualifications for these people. We did a lot of effort to increase the number. Now we are at a point of time where we can say mission accomplished. We have exactly this number of employees which is able to handle this amount of passengers, which was given us one year ago. This was much higher than what is now reality. In other words, to make the long story short, in the moment, we are overstaffed. We have to react because the number of passengers is lower than what was indicated from the airlines. Now we have to readjust in a way that we are using natural fluctuation to bring down the number of employees.
We have two levers or two sources. On one side, employees which we are going to receive from external service providers. This is one element. We are reducing these external workers, but we also now are going to reduce our own employees because we have a traffic volume which is significantly lower than what was expected 12 or 18 months ago. At the moment, let me say our productivity numbers are spoiled by this overshooting of the staff. We have to show reactions. We are working on this level to bring down the foreign workers as well as our own, let me say, in a reliable mode, so to say, to stabilize and to improve our cost basis while the revenue side is relatively okay. You can see the increase is relatively good, but we have the problems on the cost side.
The cost side means personnel expenses. Here we have to put all the emphasis and all the effort now to have higher productivity. The only lever is to reduce the number of employees. That also will be the lever to bring back ground handling services into the black numbers. Yeah, regarding what was it, pricing, we have two elements. We have the central infrastructure, which covers more or less 50% of the total revenue of this segment. Here we are fine with a price increase of 7.8% as of January 1 st this year. Already looking forward into the year 2026, you will see a further price increase in the central infrastructure, which is higher than the 7.8% which you saw in this year.
We have already good price increases, and we are going to continue with even higher price increases in 2026. In the second subsegment, ramp services, here we have two-thirds of our revenue coming from Lufthansa, one-third from other airlines. With the one-third from other airlines, we are always able to bring through relatively good price increases. We are also fine and feel comfortable with the price level. We have a problem with the existing contract with Lufthansa because in this contract, we have a price increase per annum of a little bit more than 2%, exactly 2.2%, which when we signed the contract was fine because it was more or less the level of the anticipated and expected inflation rate. Now we know it was wrong because wages developed much higher.
We have to look forward when we have the new contract with Lufthansa, then we will see up from the first step a significant higher price level covering then the increased wages on the other side. These are the levers. Main lever is productivity. Productivity means reduction of employees and also pressure on prices. Central infrastructure next year, more than 7.8% plus in the following year, then a significant price increase with the Lufthansa contract.
Just to confirm, I see sort of over 10% revenue increase in ground services. All comes from the one-third of airlines not covered by the Lufthansa contract?
Exactly. Yeah. What I mentioned, we have 50% of the revenue side increased by 7.8%, one-third of the remaining 50%, more or less the same price increase coming from other airlines and price increases. Then we have two-thirds of the remaining other 50% of revenue is the Lufthansa contract. Here we have just a 2.2% price increase year by year.
Exactly.
It's a nominal, and this is our problem.
Thanks.
The next question comes from Dario Maglione, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. I have two questions. One on reverse flow guidance, which you kept it close to break-even. Consensus is a minus EUR 117 million for the full year 2025. My question is, how close do you think you will be to break-even in 2025? The second question is on CapEx. As you mentioned earlier, the CapEx for Terminal 3 and for Lima is already coming down year on year. What should we expect in terms of the phasing of this CapEx? What should we expect in Q2 and Q3? Thanks.
Yeah. First question, of course, target is break-even and to close as close as possible to break-even. If you mentioned the consensus number, I do not know whether we have the same number internally. I am looking to my colleagues here. Of course, let me say, this gap to break-even for us is too big. Again, our target is to come very, very close to break-even, closer than the EUR 117 million. Second question, phasing of CapEx, I think the best start is looking on our slide on page 7 in the presentation. You can see for three months, Lima CapEx, you see then Terminal 3 with EUR 116 million.
Let me say, if you look now, the remaining three quarters, and also based on our statement that in, let me say, September, October, the construction is more or less finalized, we have afterwards, let me say, a clear reduction of the CapEx amount. With other words, in Q2 and Q3, it is a continuation of Q1. There should be a step down in Q4. Regarding Lima, you see the EUR 46 million in Q1. We have to see now the final, so to say, bill from the construction company, change requests, which are always embedded in the final account, then long-lasting discussions with the construction company, which is normal when a project is finalized. You see our guidance, which we gave in the beginning of the year, which you can see on slide, where is it? Slide 22.
In principle, I can say there is no change. With other words, if you took now the CapEx outflow in Q1 and you are going to slide 22, where you see the final numbers for the full year, if you deduct from these numbers the realized numbers from Q1, then you see the residual remaining CapEx for Q2 till Q4. It is very simple.
Okay. Just a follow-up on Lima. Wasn't it an EPC contract? So kind of fixed price?
Yes.
Okay. So there is no risk of big CapEx overrun?
Yeah. You absolutely are. First of all, it's EPC, and this is good that it is EPC. Nevertheless, even in each and every EPC in the world regarding each and every infrastructure project, there are always some remaining discussions. The difference is if you do not go for an EPC contract, you have 20, 30, 50 discussions with different providers. Here you have just one. Nevertheless, at the end of the day, always some topics which are under discussion, so to say.
Okay. Thank you.
This is normal. This is, let me say, under control, and there will be no surprise. Do not expect any negative surprise. Everything is under control.
Thank you. Thank you so much.
The next question comes from Marcin Wojtal, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, could you comment a little bit on the outlook for your assets in Greece for 2025? What are you assuming? Are you seeing any slowdown in the remainder of the year? My second question is on dividends that Fraport Greece pays to Fraport AG, but also to minority shareholders, which I think is 35% owned by the other shareholders. Do you expect any dividends from Greece to actually go to minorities of that entity in 2025? Thank you.
Yeah. First question was regarding traffic. And here I have in so far good information for you that our traffic guidance was always wrong. We are always underestimating the realized traffic, which is good. In reality, the traffic was always in the last couple of years was always better than this would be projected in our financial plans. We had in last year, we had exactly 36 million passengers. The big and good question is, what do we expect in this year? Of course, internally, we expect a positive, again, a positive growth of passengers. When you look on the current number and the April figures, which we showed on our second slide, and I'm now going to this slide, you see 4.9%. In the first three months, we had positive growth without Easter. There were Easter holidays in April and another 4.9%.
This gives us confidence that this year will again be a good year in Greece. We hear from all airlines that they are always happy to fly to Greece because their booking numbers are good. The hotel owners are satisfied in Greece. With other words, there is headroom for a very good season again. Always regarding the EBITDA, we have in so far disadvantage in this year that there is no continuation of the COVID compensation. Last year, we received EUR 28 million. We have to recover or compensate these EUR 28 million, which went directly into the EBITDA level in 2024. Regarding Greece, I am very optimistic and looking what will be the final EBITDA in this year. This will not be far away from the 2024 numbers, which would be very good because, again, we have to compensate EUR 28 million for the COVID compensation.
Dividend, in the last couple of years, every year we receive dividends, and then it is pro rata. Let me say based on our shareholding. The number in the Supervisory Board, we are deciding how many dividends should be distributed. Then based on the percentage of the shares which you are owning, you are receiving your share of dividends. What was your question? How many this will be or would be?
What is the formula that you're using? Is it based on net profit? What is the payout so that we can somehow model it? Yeah?
Yeah. To model is relatively simple. Internally, we are looking what is the amount of cash. Let me say the conviction of the shareholders, or not the conviction, the mechanism is that we are looking what is finally as cash in the P&L and not 100% because you always need some cash for working capital changes, etc. Let me say 80%-90% of the cash position will be distributed to the shareholders. Very simple. Whatever it is, there is no formula and no plan. We are looking how much cash do we have.
Yeah. Very clear.
The next question comes from Patrick Creuset, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, Matthias. Just two questions. First, on net debt, is it fair to conclude that Q1 2025 net debt marks the peak? I mean, just if I look at your full year guidance, it seems to imply I think there's a bit of front-loading of cash costs essentially into Q1. Is it fair to say that this marks the net debt peak and from here it's basically deleveraging? The other question just coming back to traffic, I mean, you mentioned 5% traffic in April because you have the Easter shift. When we look at airline schedules, they point to, if anything, stronger growth in May, June, probably in a range of 5%-6%. Do you share that view in terms of the near-term outlook on traffic growth? Thank you.
First topic, net. Now the 8.6 is a peak. Now it will go down to our guidance of about EUR 8.4 billion. Clear message. Growth rates, I assume you are focusing on Frankfurt with a 5%-6%. Is it correct?
Yeah. Correct. Yeah. Exactly.
This is, let me say, the elephant in the room is always Lufthansa because Lufthansa covers two-thirds or Lufthansa with Austrian, Swiss, etc., and all their subsidiaries. They're relevant for more than 60% of the traffic. I think we have a clear indication of the traffic growth of all the other airlines, which is very good. If you have a very good number times one-third of your total market share, it's always a limited number. If Lufthansa is growing zero or is growing 3%, this has a strong impact on the whole traffic. Again, we have problems to calculate what are the offered capacities of Lufthansa in the coming months. This has to do with the new aircraft and taking out or not taking out old ones. This is the question mark.
It's very difficult for us now to give you a precise answer.
Thank you.
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one. The next question comes from Jose Arroyo, Santander. Please go ahead.
Hello, Matthias. Just a couple, if I may, on Lima. I'm aware the concession ends in 2041, but I know there is an option to extend it to 2051. I want to understand what needs to happen before this extension becomes unconditional. I was wondering if the timely delivery of the new infrastructure at the airport may help you in making 2051 the final date. That's question number one. Question number two, I wanted to come back to the question of headcount increases. Earlier, you dealt with the issue from the point of view of the ground handling business, but I was wondering why the employees in the aviation business also went up by 6%. Is it in anticipation of higher traffic, in anticipation of the need to improve the quality of service, or do you think this number will need to come down in the coming quarters? T hank you.
First of all, I think it's relatively clear that we are going to use the option. We are always going to use options. That's the reason why we have options. I think the option was a result of some delays coming from on the concession agreement, they had to deliver the land. Over years, the government was not able to deliver the land. There was an arbitration, so to say. As a compensation for this, we received an option and an extension of the option. This is pure money, and we are going to use the option. Regarding full-time as FTE increase in aviation, this is absolute or clear 100% in anticipation of Terminal 3 because Terminal 3 is much bigger than T2, and therefore you need more employees. You cannot come four weeks before opening.
Already now, aviation is doing the recruitment process to have the right number of employees and also the qualified guys, let me say, exactly at that point of time when we are going to open Terminal 3.
The next question is a follow-up question from Cristian Nedelcu, UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. A few left on my side, and thank you for giving me the chance to come back. The net income in Antalya, we saw in Q1 a bit weaker. How do you think about the dividend that Antalya can pay this year versus last year or any indication? Secondly, you have quite a lot of excess cash liquidity versus the pre-COVID times. What's your latest thinking in terms of utilizing some of this cash liquidity to retire debt that is maturing? Because that will give you some savings on the interest cost side. The third one is on the load factors in Frankfurt. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think year to date, they are a bit down year over year. How are you thinking about load factors in Frankfurt going forward for the rest of the year?
The last one, if I may, the actual aeronautical charge per passenger, I think you flagged in the report, it came a little bit lower than the 5.7% tariff increase. Looking forward, having in mind the mix of traffic with more short-haul, should we assume also a bit of a haircut to the 5.7%? Should the achieved aviation charge per pax be more around 4% or 5%, or how do you think about it? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you for the questions. First of all, dividends in Antalya. There will be another dividend paid in this year. The dividend payment in all our concession models has nothing to do with net income. It can also be the case that we have a negative net income, and nevertheless, we are paying dividends. There will be a strong dividend payment already or again in this year coming from Antalya or Antalya 1, the old concession, which runs out end of 2026. In principle, dividends, wherever there is a possibility, we are going first of all to collect dividends from our subsidiaries to have an income stream from the subsidiaries to the AG here in Frankfurt to collect and to concentrate cash here.
When you look at our total cash position, which you could also see in the presentation, I think it is slide number eight, you can see that we already have reduced significantly the cash position. We had two years ago, we had exactly EUR 5 billion. This was a peak. Now, quarter by quarter, we are going to reduce it. Now we ended up with EUR 3.5 billion end of Q1 in this year. You will see for the rest of the year further reduction of this level. Let me say there is no pressure to speed up with a reduction because when we look on the interest rates or the interest rates come stream in the moment, we are collecting 2.8% for our cash position. This is relatively good. Some months ago, before the interest rate reduction of the ECB, we had a positive cost of carry.
We made money with our cash. Now it is more or less equal or a little bit below. The cost of carry in the moment is not relevant. That is the reason why there was no pressure to bring it down. Now looking forward, step by step, year by year and quarter by quarter, we are going to reduce to the long-term, let me say, target of EUR 2 billion, which in the long run, we think is a good cash position regarding, let me say, size and revenue level of our group. Last question, price impact. You are absolutely correct. When you look on the revenue numbers in aviation, assuming there is a price increase of 5.7%, deducting the 0.9% lower number of passengers, you are not going to end up with a revenue which we are going to show in our books.
This has nothing to do that the prices are wrong or fake prices. These are real prices. You have to see that we have some structural effects. First of all, the fees are collected not per passenger. The fees are collected based on the departing passengers. You have always in Q1 the phenomenon that with beginning of the year, you have more passengers coming from the holidays. You have an inbound, and this is counted in the number of passengers, but you are not receiving money for inbound traffic. Normally, this is more or less compensated by the Easter holidays because in the beginning of the Easter holidays, everybody is flying out. You have a much higher revenue income stream because the departing passengers, they are charged, or the airlines are charged regarding the departing passengers.
We have the seasonal effect that Easter holidays happened in April, and we had not this departing impact which we always have in the previous year when Easter holidays took place in March. This, so to say, is the main effect why the correct Mickey Mouse calculation does not end up with the numbers you expect comparing to these numbers which we showed in our P&L. In the next quarter, you will see, so to say, not corrected, but numbers which are fitting to the Mickey Mouse calculation because then there is a washout of these structural elements.
Thank you very much. Sorry, just coming back on the load factor in Frankfurt going forward, any color that you could provide at this stage?
Load factor is a little bit going down. This has to do with Condor because Condor is bringing in up to 50% more capacities. This is a huge increase on the capacity side. If you come just with 5%, it is relatively simple to continue with your load factor when you just have a capacity increase in a single-digit area. When and if you come with such a huge increase and you are creating a feeder network like Condor, of course, if you start up a feeder network, the load factor in the beginning is always much lower, and you have to have a ramp-up phase. Primarily, let me say, the reduced seat load factor comes from Condor as a special effect based on huge capacity increases.
Thank you very much. Very helpful.
The next question is a follow-up question from Dario Maglione, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up question. It's actually on OPEX for the three Frankfurt segments. Can you maybe repeat on the wage? If I look at wage cost, which in 2024, I believe, was around EUR 845 million. You expect EUR 100 million more there in 2025, if I understand correctly. Other costs, how much was energy? In 2024, I think it was EUR 125 million or share we spent this year. Other OPEX, other supplies you mentioned, you would not expect a big inflation there. Is 3%-4% a reasonable number? Thanks.
Starting with personnel cost, again, let me say wage effect, EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million, total increase about EUR 100 million. A little bit more than EUR 50 million coming from higher FTE numbers compared to previous year. Again, please have in mind that we have now a strong focus in ground services to bring it down a little bit, which you will see end of the year, especially in 2026. Energy prices are flat. We do not see further increases. Also looking forward, we do not expect inflation-driven price increases based also on the effect that end of this year, our photovoltaic devices are fully on stream here on the campus. We are benefiting from our own produced CO2-neutral electricity. Also from next year onwards, we are receiving energy based on our new windmills in the Northeast, where the contractual prices are fixed.
Here we even see a reduction of energy prices because the contractually fixed prices are lower than what is in the market at the moment. There is a relaxation on the energy price side. Also, regarding our material expense items, as I mentioned, we think that the inflation, more or less, or the huge inflation, is over. Now we are back on normal price increases of 2%-3%, not more.
Thank you very much.
The next question is a follow-up question from Graham Hunt, Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Sorry for the follow-up. I just wanted to push again on this, the headcount reduction as you're speaking to, and just understand how that will work in the context of the collective agreements that your staff sit under. As I recall, it's been challenging in the past to modify headcount. In the context of opening new infrastructure next year, how much can you really cut from your current capacity? Thanks.
Yeah. Regarding reduction of headcount in ground services, as I mentioned, we have two levels. One is a natural fluctuation. Natural fluctuation has reduced due to the change in the labor market, but it is still a relatively high single-digit number. We can use this absolutely smartly without any additional cost, month by month, to reduce the number of internal employees. On the other side, we have contracts with several service providers for external workers. We always have some to be more flexible on the labor side. We had, let me say, in the, so to say, in the heat or in the peak of our problems, we had up to 1,000 FTEs from service providers. We are in the moment down to, I think, 400-450. We will not go to zero because if you go to zero, then these companies will be closed.
We have not any longer the flexibility of these guys. Here we see further headroom going down from 400-450 to 200-250. Let me say about 200 people or FTEs headroom on the service provider side, which is the same cost as if we have workers on our own P&L. These are the two levels. Again, month by month, now we are on the break. The break will show a positive impact in the P&L. I hope that already, again, but this is hope. I cannot give a clear commitment that already in Q2 or in this quarter, that we are break even, EBITDA break even, or very close to EBITDA break even in ground handling and up from Q3, then we will see positive EBITDA numbers. This is the roadmap based on push on productivity numbers.
Thanks.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Q&A session. We thank you for your participation and wish you a pleasant rest of your afternoon. Good.