Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Fraport publication of quarterly figures interim release Q3 9M 2025 conference call. I'm Lorenzo, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q& A session. You can register for question at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast at this time. It's my pleasure to hand over to Christoph Nanke. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Lorenzo, and welcome. Also from my side. First, I would like to apologize that the webcast this morning was off boarding one hour late, so reducing our punctuality rate. I do hope that you meanwhile had the chance to hear it. The presentation of our CEO Stefan Schulte and our CFO Matthias Zieschang. They are both with me here at the table and we can now directly jump into Q& A.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered in the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press Star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of [Lod Ral] from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on CapEx. If you could remind us your latest expectation for 2026 and 2027. I think at the call at H1 you said that CapEx in 2026 could be maybe around EUR 800 million-max EUR 900 million and then for 2027 we have in mind like EUR 650 million. It would be interesting and helpful if you could fine-tune then your expectation. Are you still expecting a step down to EUR 500 million of maintenance CapEx from 2027? What is the envelope and timeframe for the refurbishment of Terminal 2? That is my first question. My second question is on dividend. You said on your presentation on the webcast that there is a chance that it comes back as soon as this year. What needs to happen? What kind of size are we looking at? You previously had a payout ratio of 40%-60%. Would it be a similar policy? Thanks very much.
I think it's a dividend.
Let's start with the CapEx, yeah, CapEx. First of all, there's no final indication for next year, for 2026 and 2027, just an indication and this is not new. We, in this year, are going to realize about EUR 1.1 billion and we reconfirmed this number. In 2026, it's about EUR 900 million and in 2027, it's about EUR 700 million. As a first indication, maintenance CapEx EUR 500 million. Yes. Also, cost confirmation that this is more or less a sustainable number for the future. Regarding the phasing of T 2, again, this is a lever depending on the growth number of passengers here at Frankfurt Airport. We can speed up, we can delay, but based on our base case scenario, the CapEx regarding T 2 goes up in 2029 or 2030.
Regarding your second or third question, whatever it is, on dividends, I think Matthias, as well as I gave you throughout the year, whenever we met, always, and also on the annual meeting, the expectation that we are optimistic to start with dividend payments in or to restart with dividend payments in 2026 for 2025. If, and the big if was if the year 2025 turns on a positive way regarding our EBITDA results and regarding that we have CapEx under control so that we are getting. Net debt very close. Free cash flow very close to zero. I think we are on that move. So I'm optimistic that we can get back on restarting dividend payments in 2026 or 2025. But we still have to wait on the final quarter whether especially the CapEx is so far under control that we are coming close to break even on free cash flow slightly negative, and that we have a positive outlook for 2026. Of course, from today's point of view, I'm quite optimistic that this will work. But let's please wait for the final quarter and then the official decisions and the decision on this will be taken latest by the Supervisory Board in March. Payout ratio will be for sure less than 40%-60% in the first year or the first two years. But long term, mid term, long term, we want to get back to 40%-60%.
Thank you. Can I just ask on CapEx, just the precision. You said T 2 goes until 2030. Should we expect a level of EUR 700 million of CapEx between 2027 and 2030? More or less on average.
It can be, I would, from today's perspective, the EUR 700 million or more, the maximum could be even a little bit less than 700 before we ramp up with Terminal 2.
Okay, thanks.
The next question comes from the line of Carlos Caburrasi from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Hi everyone and thank you for taking my questions. Yes, two on my side. First, on free cash flow and following up on what Stefan has just commented. You've always mentioned close to break even in 2025, but then you maybe provided range or your full year expectation. If I go back to 2018, the nine month figure was EUR 80 million free cash flow and then the full year numbers stood at EUR 7 million. Should we expect something similar in 2025? Second, can you comment your expectations for Antalya during the rest of the decade? I mean, this year's performance has been weaker than what some analysts were expecting. I was wondering if you could provide some visibility on EBITDA net profit by 2030. Additionally, could you also provide some visibility on the dividend payments coming from Antalya, especially considering the start of the second concession and the higher concession payments. Thank you.
The first question regarding free cash flow, you could see our positive number in Q3, which was strong, but it must be strong otherwise we cannot end up close to break even. We still are convinced that we will end up close to break even. Regarding then the indebtedness, this would lead to a situation that coming from EUR 8.38 billion last year, we will end up in a range which is from today's perspective between EUR 8.3 billion-8.4 billion for 2025, and then looking forward into the year 2026, free cash flow will be clearly positive. We are using this in the case of dividends to pay some dividends if the decision will be made, and second, to use the other proceeds to bring down the indebtedness of the group.
Regarding Antalya and thanks for your questions. Antalya is now in a difficult phase between Antalya old concession, Antalya new concession with some negotiations and we see DHMI over there. In principle, yes, this year was a little bit disappointing regarding traffic growth. I know that a lot of activity started in Turkey in Antalya. We have seen already a very, very good October. It is just one month, but with a growth in October of 9% that was very positive. November, December are not any longer so important because the traffic numbers are still okay, but they are coming down, the high season is over. We have to see what really the final number is on EBITDA. Roughly something about EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million could be on EBITDA level for this year 2025 and then it should go up. The real step up will be from 2027 onwards, not earlier. Because it's the in between time between the two concessions, there dividend payments we are not expecting for the next years as far as I'm informed. But maybe Matthias will have better numbers than I. No, no, this is correct. That's correct.
Carlos. To be precise, that was referring to the new Antalya concession. We need to add the current Antalya concession too.
Okay, thank you.
The numbers I mentioned, the entire year one numbers. Do you have some? I don't know at the moment.
Yeah, dividends we guide for this year high double digit. We also expect more of the same next year.
Okay. Up to EUR 100 million. Yeah, sorry, was not the consolidation number.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Tobias from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hello, I have just one question. On ground handling, the EBITDA margin was 16% in Q3 adjusted, this is around 9%. When I compare this to the 13%+ in Q3 2019, there's still sort of significant room for improvement. Now considering the reversal of the higher market share which should go down to 90% as you had said earlier, when do you see the annual EBITDA margin for ground handling settling, is this around the 2019 level of 8.5%? When would you expect to actually get there? Thank you.
That's 8.5%. I don't know at the moment. It will be a little bit less, I think. We expect a big increase on the EBITDA side in 2027 and 2028 due to contract negotiations with our main customers or main customer. This contract negotiation started already. I think we will update you over the term of the next 6-9 months or 12 months because that's the duration of the actual contract and it will not be an easy solution. There are tough negotiations.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Dario Maglione from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Just one question following up on what Erdis was asking about the CapEx, just to make sure I understand. So the maintenance CapEx is EUR 500 million but then you mentioned the EUR 700 million kind of long term. Yeah, I just want to clearly understand what is the EUR 700 million, how long for, whether it's brick and mortar CapEx or also include fixed concession payments and so on. Just to be very clear. Thanks.
Just when we talk about CapEx, we are focusing on brick and mortar CapEx. Concessions are, would be, concession payments would be on top of it. First of all, we have now a ramp down again, EUR 1.1 billion this year, about EUR 900 million next year, and EUR 700 million in the following year. This includes still payments for Terminal 3. From a technical perspective, the construction is ready, but nevertheless there are residual works which have to be done. You have always a lot of discussions between the construction companies on one side regarding the final builds. This takes time. In some cases, a settlement immediately after the finalization of the work. Sometimes it takes 12 months, even 18 months. You always have some residual works which have to be realized. Let me say in the case of such a huge project, you have between, t here's always a delay between the last payment on one side and the last construction works in a range of 12-18 months.
This means looking forward again, the terminal is through, but there are still payments in 2026 that can be up to EUR 200 million. This is always part of our total consideration of maximum EUR 4.2 billion- EUR 4.3 billion which we already set, including reserves, etc. There will be no overrun of this number. Looking forward, if there would be EUR 200 million further CapEx in next year, this is part of the EUR 4.2 billion-EUR 4.3 billion total budget for Terminal 3 and also looking into 2027 and these EUR 700 million, there are still in our financial plan some final payments, delayed payments for Terminal 3. In other words, the discrepancy between EUR 700 million and EUR 500 million are on top elements. The EUR 500 million is, from today's perspective, the maximum of maintenance CapEx for all group assets in our portfolio, including Frankfurt, including all other assets.
The next question comes from the line of Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi there. Can you tell us a little bit about Terminal 3 and the airline? There was some talk, I think at the last quarter's presentation that Condor and Turkish might move, but I think when the opening date was announced for Terminal 3, they were not included. Do you think you're going to get those over to Terminal 3 or not? When will we know? A second question would be around Lima, and I think at the time of the deep dive you told us that there were plans to introduce a connecting passenger fee that should be supportive to the airport charges, notwithstanding the existing regulatory structure of RPI minus three. I think from memory U.S. RPI. I think the airlines are building up quite a big campaign against that connection fee. How confident are you that it can come to pass? Also, if we look at the, I think the retail revenue in this last quarter did not seem to move a great deal in Lima. Is this a timing matter or have we just not got enough space open yet in the new terminal? Thanks.
I'll start with a question on Terminal 3. You are absolutely right. We will start on 23rd of April and then over four waves up to the summer holidays, we'll move all airlines out of Terminal 2 in a first step to Terminal 3. That is excluding Condor, it's excluding Turkish Airlines, or it's excluding any other airline out of Terminal 1. Thereafter, one or the other airline was mentioned. Maybe Condor could move to Terminal 3, but that's too early. At the moment, discussions are ongoing. We will see. I can't confirm it today. If at all, it would be from 2027 onwards. It would make a lot of sense for Condor, also for us. Still, discussions are ongoing. Regarding Lima, yes, you are right that we have the right by the concession contract for connecting passenger fee.
There is a big debate about that started by the airlines and we are in discussions with the concession guarantor which way it could be introduced or is there another way to be introduced. Whether it's starting end of the year, we have to see. It's open at the moment. The discussions are ongoing and we'll keep you updated as soon as we know which way it's going ahead. Whether it's this connecting passenger fee or whether it's recalculated into the normal fees, we have to see which way and what the solution at the end is. We are in discussions there with the government of the concession. With the state on retail, in my opinion, it's just the normal work to get now the passenger streams and the shops and to optimize all the streams will take some time. That's normal with a new terminal to adapt to one or the other topic. We are quite optimistic. are also in discussions with the duty free operator and so on that we should see further also over the next years.
You have to see when you're looking on the EBITDA contribution from Lima, we have three drivers or three levers. On one side, it's in the moment the number of passengers, which is temporarily reduced by the refurbishment of the old runway. This leads to a temporary limitation of movements. That's the reason why we have now a small reduction of passenger number. This will go straight into strong positive numbers with the beginning of next year. Second, of course, we have this U.S. dollar impact because the most valuable passengers are the Americans flying into Lima to stay in Peru or using Lima airport as a stopover location for other destinations. Looking just on the retail numbers, they are very good but again spoiled by a little bit. Temporarily reduced passenger numbers on one side and the U.S. dollar negative impact on the other side and higher OpEx due to the opening of the terminal of course compared to the old terminal.
The next question comes from the line of Graham Hunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. I've got two questions please. Firstly, on T3 commissioning next year, could you give us any sense of how you see the cost developing there in terms of the impact on group EBITDA? I think you've spoken in the past to a more stable development as we saw or as we see overlap between T2 coming offline and T3 coming online. Sorry. So any updated view there in terms of the cost of commissioning would be helpful. And then second question just on your payout ratio. I just wanted to understand if EPS payout was the only approach you would take to shareholder distributions or if you would consider a different policy just given noncash charges are stepping up significantly from next year. Just wanted to understand your thinking there around still tying that to earnings. Thank you.
T3 as always mentioned, the OpEx is higher than T2 because it's a huge terminal with more than twice the capacity compared to terminal. The OpEx increase is a double-digit million amount per annum compared to the status quo on one side. On the other side of course then the headroom for growth when the passengers are kicking in, so to say, in these enhanced capacity.
On dividends. If I got your question correct, we first focus on the first dividend payment, on restart the dividend payments. Then we see how the business developing but it will be in the first years for sure focusing on EPS, so on the net result on dividend payments because we also have and want to bring down somewhere the debt and there are no plans from today's perspective for the next two, three, four years to make any shareholder repayments or something else, but it will be focused on dividend payments at least for the next two, three, four years.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Ashish Khitan from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Hello everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to understand if you can provide any initial thoughts about traffic growth for 2026 and secondly, how do you expect the retail revenue to grow. Thank you.
It's too early, to be quite honest. We get at the normal these days positive signals, especially from our main customer Lufthansa, but also from Condor, the two biggest customers here in Frankfurt, that they would probably see a bigger growth rate than this year. To be quite honest, that's too early in those discussions and we will give you the guidance in beginning of next year. From today's point of view, I'm optimistic that we see in Frankfurt a stronger growth. Whatever it means, that's too early. I'm too long in that business having. Seen too many signals regarding retail looking forward. We have the positive impact from Terminal 3 with this huge and nice retail marketplace. As we said in the past, we expect an increase in the spend per pax of these passengers moving from Terminal 2 to Terminal 3 of about 50%. Just as a reminder, the spend per pax at the moment in T 2 is above EUR 3, not because the retail space is great, it has to do with the value of the passengers which today we operate in Terminal 2. We are talking about 10 million passengers moving from T 2 to T 3, full year effect in 2027, and then the expectation is that they spend 50% more than what they spent in the past. Internal tour.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Arishankar Ramamurthy from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi everyone, it's Hari from Deutsche Bank. Congrats on a good set of print, especially on the free cash flows. Just one quick question there. If I'm trying to build what your free cash flow might look like for 2026, maybe a starting point would be EUR 200 million lower CapEx and then probably EUR 100 million more in EBITDA. Going by what you indicated when you shared the plans for 2030 targets, EUR 100 million increment each year. Does this sound like a fair bridge from this year's FCF to next year's or is there anything else that we need to bear in mind? Thank you.
First of all, it's absolutely correct to mention the EUR 200 million reduction in CapEx, which has a positive impact on the free cash flow on the other side. EBITDA will be higher in 2026 compared to 2025, but today it's too early to say what is the amount of the expected EBITDA. This we will tell you then when we come with Q4 numbers. The main driver, of course, the EUR 200 million CapEx reduction which we are going to see in next year.
Thank you. Maybe just one more on the 2030 targets on EBITDA. Any color from here on as to how that might evolve in terms of the mix from volumes and price and retail regulated versus unregulated?
No . You always said about €2 billion and this is stable and you mentioned volume and fees and exactly as you said, this is always. You have to find an equilibrium between the volume growth on one side and the fee escalation on the other side. This is a little bit like an equilibrium in a pipeline.
Understood, thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon gentlemen. Just a couple. First on the cost side, you. You've done pretty great strides on especially in aviation. Also to a lesser extent on ground handling. You see yourself being able to continue to mostly outperform and compress the especially the waste cost within aviation into the back end of the year and 2026. Is there anything special you're thinking about implementing into next year? Would be the first question. Second, coming back on CapEx, thinking about the EUR 700 million in talking about from 2027, so implied there's around EUR 200 million kind of sticky international CapEx in there. So that must be what half of it must be Greece if I'm correct and I had the last one. Yes, sorry. On Terminal 2 there seems to be a little bit of a disagreement with a few clients. Is the project as of today with what you know from Lufthansa's growth plan, is the project canned or is this still live, but basically kind of with no clear deadline? Just wanted to get a clear grip on whether or not this is still on or basically up in the air. Thank you.
I get your question correct on top cost aviation. If this was a question, then we believe that the number of staff will be roughly stable. There will not be a big development on that. On the price side you should probably calculate + 3%, + 4%, something like this. Also the hiring we have to do, for example for ground handling, we are in that hiring process. It will also be compared to the total number, a small number. We need maybe another 50-80 people, maybe 100 people because of Terminal 3. We have an efficiency program running against this. It is something in the area of 50 people. Price increase also 3%, 4%, 5%, something like this. In the lower level of staff, the price increase is normally higher than the more higher paid people. That's something what I could give you as the best guidance at the moment for aviation and ground services.
Regarding CapEx. Again we see, and we calculate about EUR 500 million for the whole group as a base CapEx amount. Like white noise. There is no exact plan that is saying in three, four years we are taking 70% for Frankfurt and 30% for the international activities. This is more or less a budget which we have and which we are going to allocate to our assets. Having a good track record, what are the CapEx maintenance requirements? We know that this is a sufficient amount also looking forward, including Greece and all other assets in our portfolio.
Matthias, on that international CapEx, and especially Greece, you, the local management, have been quoting the price over the past year now, talking up the CapEx, the expansion, more runway investment and so on. Isn't there a step up into 2026, 2027, and 2029, or is that just within the overall envelope?
This is in the overall number as a part. When you look back when we went to refurbish and expand the existing 14 airports, we had a total consideration of, I think, as far as I remember, EUR 330 million for all 14 airport terminals. You see the amounts increased to increase, expand. They are relatively modest and they are part of this big box.
Okay, and last one, if I may. Just on ground handling, I think Stefan, you mentioned that the conversation with Lufthansa was difficult. Do you feel you're more confident, less confident three months ago on the ability to keep the contract, but reprice it upwards?
Yes, of course we are confident. I just tried to give you the signal and that was clear. It will be a difficult discussion, a difficult negotiation and such a difficult negotiation will take time. The huge price increase we need is because of the inflation and the price, the staff cost increases over the recent five, six, seven years. That is not a negotiation with one glass of wine or whatever you want to call it. It will take time and that is the reason I gave the indication it will take 6-9-12 months. We will keep you updated. We are optimistic. We have to get through this.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Marcin Wojtel fram Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. A couple of questions. Firstly, considering the improved free cash flow, do you have any appetite to perhaps consider some new growth opportunities outside of Germany? I'm talking about potential acquisitions of new assets or. There is nothing new on that front. Sorry to come back on CapEx and apologies if that was already addressed. Could you just reconfirm that EUR 500 million of base maintenance that you've been indicating? Does it include refurbishment of Terminal 2 or. That would be on top. Thank you.
Starts regarding new concessions, there's nothing really on the table. I know from the market that airports in Egypt could come up. We would have at least a close look at this one because it's an attractive market. It's much too early because we haven't seen anything on detail. We don't know which way they're going ahead. That Egypt is a very attractive market, especially on the tourist side, that's absolutely clear. It's too early at the moment to say anything on that one. Second question regarding CapEx. EUR 500 million is a realistic conservative number regarding all maintenance CapEx requirements for all assets. Of course, T 2 comes on top, but the total consideration for T 2 is allocated for a period of up to six, seven years or eight years.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen. That was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Christoph Nanke for any closing remarks.
Thanks everybody for participating, for your good questions. If there are any further questions, please give us a call later in IR and wish everybody a good rest of the day. Thanks.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call. Thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your line. Goodbye.