Welcome also from my side to Fraport's Q2 analyst presentation for year 2023. I'm here in the room with our CFO, Matthias Zieschang. He will guide you through the presentation, and afterwards, there will be, as always, time for your questions. I think we can start.
Yeah, thank you very much. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, also warm welcome from my side. Let me start my presentation today with a closer look at our traffic performance at Frankfurt Airport in the first half of the fiscal year 2023. On Slide 3, you see that we had a modest start into the year with a recovery rate of just 75%-80%. The reasons for the slow start were mainly continued capacity shortages in the aviation sector, so ground handling services, airlines, aircraft, air traffic control, et cetera. The absence of intercontinental markets, and therefore connecting traffic to and from China, Russia, or the Ukraine. Thirdly, a continued slow ramp-up of corporate traveling activities, which is just at about 60%. Despite the slow start, we have recorded a positive traffic momentum from February onwards.
While the Q1 recorded a recovery of 77%, Q2 marked an improvement to 82% or 5 percentage points higher. Our preliminary figures for July show a continuation of this trend. Here, July was the first month where we started to make more slots at Frankfurt Airport available again. As you will remember, we artificially reduced the number of maximum movements at Frankfurt Airport to 90% of the 2019 level due to capacity bottlenecks. From July onwards, we are now starting to gradually reopen these slots again. As a result of the slot increase, the recovery rate improved to 87% in July and showed a total of 6 million passengers. This was the first time that we achieved such a high passenger count in a post-COVID world.
Similar to the increase in overall passengers, we are seeing an increase in the numbers of passengers to and from China. While Q1 still was very low at about 20% of 2019, the Q2 recorded a slight step up to about 40%. Here, June marked another sequential improvement to more than 50%. Our outlook for the China reopening, therefore, remains unchanged. For the Q3, we expect to be in between 50%-60% of the 2019 level, while the Q4 is expected to reach about 80%, with December going up to 90%.
While we remain far away from providing a traffic guidance for fiscal year 2024, at this point in time, it is, however, obvious it's a slow start into fiscal year 2023, and the buildup of momentum over the course of the year will lead to a solid year-over-year passenger growth in 2024. On the next slide, number 4, we are moving on to our international portfolio. You see that Fraport Greece continued its very positive trend in the first 6 months of the year. While the recovery rate exceeded Q1 2019 by 8%, the Q2 achieved a further improvement to 10%. July marked another positive development, with passenger numbers up by 16% compared to 2019.
Correspondingly, we expect on a full year basis an outperformance, compared with 2019 again. Contrary to Greece, Lima Airport showed a flat recovery rate of 85% during the Q2. Here, the political unrest situation prevented many passengers from traveling to Peru. Looking ahead, we are seeing clear signs of an improvement and expect passenger numbers to gradually come back to 90% over the course of the year. In opposite to Lima, the two Brazilian airports showed an improving trend during Q2. Here, especially Porto Alegre, benefited from the restoration of domestic and international flights. Fortaleza, on the other side, still misses the hub function of 2019, and Air France KLM was using the airport jointly with GOL to serve the broader northeastern Brazilian market. Ljubljana or Ljubljana in Slovenia also showed some progress, albeit on a very low level.
Here, Adria Airways left the market in September 2019. As a result, the comparable basis will ease from September onwards, we expect the relative performance in Q3 and Q4 to gradually improve. For Fraport Twin Star , the passenger trend turned negative in the Q2. While Q1 benefited from further aircraft being stationed, the Q2 faced headwinds against the higher 2019 comparable basis. Here, the Russians and Ukrainians represented a clear double-digit passenger share in 2019, and miss the Bulgarian market nowadays. Simultaneously, the vicinity to Ukraine is not helping to attract tourists to the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast. Contrary to Bulgaria, Antalya Airport remains close to the level of 2019 during the Q2.
Here, also the indicators for the high summer season look promising, and should support us to bring the entire group airports closer to 2019 during Q3 and Q4. Having said this, we overall expect a positive operational development for the group airports during the Q3, including for Frankfurt Airport. Our key financial highlights for the past quarter are presented on Slide 5. Ladies and gentlemen, we are proud that meanwhile, 3/4 group segments have exceeded the pre-COVID earnings levels. While Frankfurt Airport just handled about 82% of the 2019 passenger traffic, the EBITDA in the aviation and retail and real estate segments achieved and even surpassed the 2019 levels.
The EBITDA recovery clearly proves the measures we have taken to become a more efficient company during the COVID crisis, and will also remain in the future. For the remainder of the year, we are therefore confident that the aviation segment will exceed the 2019 EBITDA level, and move towards the mark of EUR 300 million. For the retail and real estate segment, we are also optimistic for the year ahead. On a full year basis, however, Q1 marked a strong EBITDA headwind in the area of EUR 20 million, also because of a double-digit one-time effect in 2019. For the segment, we therefore also expect to get close to the 2019 EBITDA level, but we don't expect a clear outperformance. Outside of Frankfurt, our international activity segment continued its very strong development. Especially, Fraport Greece recorded an outstanding quarter.
EBITDA doubled compared to 2019, on just 10% additional passengers. A very strong performance of our most relevant asset outside of Frankfurt. Correspondingly, we exceeded the 2019 EBITDA level on a group-wide basis for the first time without major one-off effects, so on a clean basis. At EUR 323 million, group EBITDA was 4% up against our pre-COVID benchmark year. A more detailed look at our group profit and loss in the Q2 is provided on Slide 6. Revenues, excluding for IFRIC 12, exceeded the 2019 level by EUR 59 million, and almost reached EUR 900 million. The increase in revenues can be mainly attributed to the international segment, which showed an underlying revenue growth of about EUR 50 million.
Higher revenues also resulted from the security transitioning in the aviation segment, which led to some EUR 24 million higher revenues without bottom line effect. Despite the diluting effect from the security transitioning on the overall group margin, the EBITDA margin recovered to 36% in the Q2. When adjusted for IFRIC twelve, excluding the earnings neutral increase in security revenues, the EBITDA margin recovered to the pre-COVID level of about 37%. At EUR 204 million, also, EBIT improved compared to 2019. Kindly note here that the year-over-year comparison against Q2 2022 is negatively impacted by the divestment of Xi'an Airport, which increased the previous year's figures by around EUR 54 million. Bottom line, in the financial results, three main effects become visible.
Compared to 2019, our financial liabilities on a group-wide basis more than doubled from EUR 5.3 to EUR 11.2 billion. Despite a lower average interest rate, our interest expenses grew, therefore, by more than EUR 25 million compared to Q2 2019. On the other side, our cash position also improved strongly and contributed some EUR 10 million higher interest income. Due to the divestment of Xi'an Airport last year, our result from associated companies reflected the absence of the investment compared to 2019. Correspondingly, our group financial result was down from minus EUR 15 million in Q2 2019 to minus EUR 50 million in the period under review. Consequently, our earnings before taxes, so the EBT and group results were down by some EUR 20 million compared to the pre-COVID level.
Moving on to our segment reporting, starting, as always, with aviation on Slide 7. During the past quarter, airport charges entirely recovered to the pre-COVID level, despite just handling 82% of the 2019 passengers. The recovery rate in airport charges, thus, clearly shows the higher price levels, which we have implemented in the meantime. Looking ahead, we already told you that we will apply for a high single-digit price increase as of January first, next year. In the meantime, we have formally forwarded our application to the regulator. You can also find a chart in the appendix at Slide 31. In this application, we included a price increase of an average 9.5%, good number, as of January first. Based on our discussions with the airlines, we have also formally agreed on our application.
As a result, we don't expect major pushback during this process anymore, and are confident to see a clear double-digit million euro price increase in airport charges next year. In addition to the application filed, we also included a new incentive scheme for 2024. Here, the threshold level is set at a revenue mark of EUR 964 million. Any excess above EUR 964 million next year, will correspondingly be shared equally between the airlines and us. To be precise here, the level of EUR 964 million is 18% higher compared to the level of airport charges, which we collected in fiscal year 2019. A very positive development in the aviation segment. Following news, ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to focus on the current business performance of the Q2 again.
Security revenues, as mentioned before, saw an increase of about EUR 24 million compared to Q2 2019, due to the security transitioning. As a security business basically comes without a margin, it is fair to assume some EUR 24 million higher cost incurred because of the transitioning. Adjusted for the higher security expenses, segment OpEx remains well under control, and we are broadly flat compared to 2019, despite the inflationary trends in the last years. As a result of the favorable underlying performance, segment EBITDA recovered to the 2019 level. This also indicates a clear improvement in EBITDA per passenger generated. Coming now to our retail and real estate segment on Slide 8. The segment revenues exceeded the pre-crisis level by EUR 2 million or 2%.
The strong development was driven by real estate and parking revenues, which outperformed the 2019 benchmark. Regarding our airport retailing, the picture is mixed. While shopping and services revenues were higher than 2019 on a per passenger basis, advertising revenues continued to underperform the 2019 level. We have also illustrated the relevant numbers on Slide 9. What are the reasons for the low advertising performance? On the one side, advertising revenues were showing a record high in 2019. Compared to 2019, we are still confronted with a changed passenger, passenger mix, so less Far East passengers and less corporate travelers. We are also seeing budget cuts in advertising to offset inflationary cost pressure, and we are seeing budgets being reallocated to more e-commerce advertising, for example.
Moreover, we still had the International Auto Show here in Frankfurt in 2019, a very well-renowned fair, which clearly contributed good revenues for us and the City of Frankfurt. Despite the headwind in advertising, we remain positive on our retail outlook for the year ahead. The further reopening of China and inflation-linked revenue streams should support us in improving the results on a full year basis. Regarding segment EBITDA, we are seeing inflationary pressure starting to fade. May and June marked the first months, where costs for energy supply were reversing compared to last year. In line with the revenue and OpEx development, we recorded a clear EBITDA margin recovery. Consequently, operating results improved over and beyond the level of 2019. Turning now the page to our ground handling segment on slide number 10.
Consistent with the other two Frankfurt segments, also ground handling showed a good revenue recovery compared to 2019. At EUR 173 million, revenues reached about 94% of the Q2 2019 value. With regards to the OpEx side, we continue to see the burden from temporary staff to handle the traffic levels. In addition to the headwind from leased personnel, we have recorded the first big one-time payment from the new collective bargaining agreement. Adjusted for this EUR 10 million new collective bargaining burden, segment EBITDA would have been broadly break-even. In fact, June 2023, on a standalone basis, negative by only EUR 1 million. Having said this, we expect a clear EBITDA improvement in the Q3, where the cost base will be better matched by traffic volumes and revenues.
Despite the somewhat better outlook, there's no question that we have to further improve the earnings situation significantly in the ground handling segment on a sustainable basis. We will keep you updated on the developments here. Moving on to our final segment, International Activities and Services on Slide 11. As you can see on the chart, our international operations continued their outperformance against 2019. Underlying revenues and EBITDA stood well above the pre-crisis level during the Q2. Here, especially Fraport Greece, performed strongly compared to Q2 2019. Revenues and EBITDA in Greece grew by some EUR 57 million and EUR 44 million, respectively. In addition to Fraport Greece, also Fraport Brazil and Fraport US showed good earnings momentum compared to 2019.
As OpEx remained under control, the underlying EBITDA margin improved to 49%, excluding for IFRIC 12 revenues and costs. Due to the EBITDA improvement, also the segment share on a group-wide level grew to about 46%. Following the segment update, let me take a closer look at our cash flow and indebtedness situation on Slide 12. Overall, the operating cash flow and capital expenditure developed in line with our expectations. Reflecting the traffic increases and final financial result performances, our operating cash flow clearly increased over the previous year. At EUR 294 million, the operating cash flow achieved about 80% of the 2019 level, and would have been more than sufficient to cover the maintenance need for the group.
Due to the continued growth investments in Frankfurt Airport, so Terminal 3 and into Lima Airport, our free cash flow was negative again. At -EUR 380 million, free cash flow developed according to our expectations, and we now expect a better development during our high season, Q3 quarter. At close to EUR 7.5 billion, our net debt to last 12 months EBITDA leverage stood at 6.8 times. This was a slight improvement compared to last year's end value of 6.9 times. On my next Slide, you will find our meanwhile well-known chart for the development of our group liquidity. By the negative free cash flow during the Q2, our liquidity situation remained more or less unchanged compared to the Q1.
At more than EUR 5 billion, our available funds remained high, and we feel very comfortable for the years ahead. Despite our high cash position, we continued to screen the market and look for further attractive funding opportunities. Here, we already started early discussions regarding possible terms and conditions for the upcoming maturities in the year ahead. Moving on to our updated repayment profile at the end of Q2 on Slide 14. When benchmarking our cash position against upcoming maturities, you see that there's no pressure to refinance. Cash-wise, we are clearly going into fiscal year 2026, based on our conservative business plan. For the remainder of this year, there are only smaller maturities left, which we expect to roll forward.
As of next year, we will also selectively make use of our cash position and to pay down some of the maturities instead of rolling them forward. Coming now to the last slide of my presentation, our outlook on slide number 15. Reflecting the development of the first six months, the term business outlook, we kept the overall guidance ranges unchanged. We nonetheless specified our expectations. Correspondingly, we expect to reach roughly the midpoint of our Frankfurt traffic guidance, so 85%. For the earnings development on the full year basis, we are very optimistic, thanks also to Fraport Greece. Regarding the EBITDA, we expect to be in the upper half of the financial guidance. We also mentioned this before.
The upper half can also mean to achieve the very top end of the guidance. This would mean to recover and even exceed our pre-COVID EBITDA this year. Likewise, we have become slightly more optimistic for our key leverage indicator net debt to EBITDA , where we expect an improvement compared to the level of last year. The group result before minorities, is now expected to be in the upper half of our guidance. Despite the very positive financial development, we won't suggest a dividend payout for the current fiscal year due to the high leverage and negative free cash flow situation. Having said this, I'd like to thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your attention, and look forward to your questions. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. First question comes from Johannes Braun from Stifel Europe. . Please go ahead.
All right, thanks for taking my questions. I have 2. Firstly, I'd like to better understand the seasonality and the outlook in the retail business. I think last year, sales per passenger was below 2019 after 6 months, but for the full year, it was above 2019, thanks to a strong performance in Q4. This year, again, we are below 2019 after 6 months, but we are above last year. Are you expecting again, a strong Q4? If yes, why is the seasonality different to pre-pandemic levels?
Then secondly, I know it's a little bit early days, but if you, if you look into 2024, and I look at the moving parts for EBITDA, You now have the 9.5% fee increase, plus a 10% or so traffic growth based on what Lufthansa has said last week. I think they are growing capacities by, by 10% or so. Ten percent volume, 10% price increase, plus retail, obviously benefiting from the return of Chinese passengers. It doesn't look too bad to me, but of course, the cost side might spoil it all again. Yeah, how do you think about EBITDA progression in 2024, please?
Yeah, thank you very much, Mr. Braun. Starting with retail. As you mentioned, we have good information. This is the performance of shopping and services. On Slide 9, you can see the, so to say, the escalation and the performance. The first half year, we ended up with EUR 3.14. If you drill down and just look on shopping services, you can see that we are better than last year. Now looking forward, we have the not phenomenon, the fact that the China market is reopening. We have up from now about 60% of the capacity in the market. We assume that also these capacities will be utilized.
With other words, a significant increase of, of, of Chinese now using Frankfurt Airport, and end of the year, it's going up to 80, and last month, 90%. Looking forward, the passengers with high purchasing power are, are coming back, and this is good for the business. On the other side, we still expect a continuation of the weak advertising business. Nevertheless, if you look on the full year spend per pax number last year, this was a value of EUR 3.33. Let me say, based on the, on the, on the current expectation, it, it should and must be a value more than EUR 3.40 for the full year or even, even a higher value.
We are relatively optimistic due to the positive trend in shopping as well as in services based on the, on the general consumer behavior and supported by the over proportionately increase now of Chinese passengers within Frankfurt Airport. Second question, outlook for 2024. It's a little bit too early, but you exactly mentioned all the positive as well as the negative drivers. Again, it's too early to give a precise guidance for traffic in next year, but 10% is a number which is, as of today, realistic, so perhaps 65 million, 66 next year.
For Frankfurt, we have this price increase of 9.5%, which is more or less given now, and on the other side, and also in retail, we expect a continuation of a positive trend in shopping and services and also a recovery in advertisement. On the other side, the high increase on the wage side, this is the negative item. Putting all these, these ingredients of the guidance together, as of today, I would say the EBITDA for the group in 2024 should be EUR 1.3x billion. This is, as of today, the clear metric.
Okay. Thank you.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Ruxandra Haradau-Doser from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Good afternoon. Three questions, please. First, could you please give some details on the traffic growth next year? Does this refer to both leisure and corporate traffic, and is it driven only by Asia, or do you expect traffic growth to other regions as well? What are the indications on the winter flight schedule at this stage? Second, you highlighted high OpEx in the ground handling division. Do you see any opportunity for price adjustments in this division? Third, I think you renewed the contract with Heinemann during the COVID crisis. Just for clarification, are the terms of the contract now in line with pre-crisis?
Given the retail performance over the last 10 years, could you please remind us about the rationale to prolong the contract and how long the contract is, the current contract is running? Thank you very much.
Yeah, thank you for your questions, Mrs. Haradau-Doser. Traffic growth, I mentioned it to Mr. Braun. I would say as of today, 65 million-66 million next year. Not the final guidance, but the best guess as of today, and this is driven by recovery of Chinese. It's also driven by the reopening of the Chinese market. The, all the slots based off the bilateral agreements between Germany and China, on the other side, will be recovered in December. With other words, in December, we have more or less 100% of the old capacity, and we assume a high utilization rate in next year. It's, it's a huge and significant increase of Chinese passengers in 2024, and this is also determining the structure of the growth and the structure of the passenger mix.
Also regarding business traffic, I mentioned during or in my presentation, as of today, we have about a 60% recovery rate, always compared to 2019. We do not expect a full recovery, but there is still headroom, also from today's perspective, it can be that the recovery on the business side goes from today, 60%-80% in next year. Also, please have in mind that the whole growth situation this year is determined by the capacity side, not from the demand side. Just looking on the demand side, traffic at Frankfurt would be much higher. We have capacity shortages in ground handling, and we informed the market in the beginning.
That's the reason why we also introduced these, artificial, slot, slot cap, and we still have reduced slots, but now month by month, we, we are going up with the slots, and end of the year, we are back, on the same slot level, which we had in 2009. With, with other words, we have coming from the capacity side, not any longer constraints, not on our side. Ground handling is, is fixed. The slots are open. We can deliver a sufficient, quality, so and we are able then in 2024 to handle even, year, the full traffic from 2019. We have also to look on the other side, of the capacity side, and this is air traffic control. These are airlines, availability of aircraft, spare parts, pilots, et cetera.
We have to see what will be the final picture in 2024. Taking all together, we expect a, a good and very solid growth in 2024. Ground handling prices, we have in handling itself, we have 2 subsegments. These are ramp and passenger services on one side, and on the other side, we have the central infrastructure. On the prices regarding the central infrastructure, we will see a relatively high single-digit price increase in next year. In the next couple of months, we will come with a final price tag for next year. This is also a good and solid improvement, which directly leads into much higher revenues in the subsegment central infrastructure. In ramp and passenger services, it's, it's twofold.
We have some so-called other airlines, where we have flexible and variable contracts. With other words, it's more as a pass-through of the inflation rate on the pass side. But with, with one big customer, we have a contract with a fixed price increase of a little bit more than 2%. This price on, on an annual basis was a good price increase when the contract was signed in the, in the pre-inflation times, but now, giving the high inflation rates, of course, there's a mismatch between the, the wage drift on one side and the price increase on the other side.
It's a mixed picture, but in next year, we will see a significant revenue increase driven by higher passenger numbers, driven by higher prices in the central infrastructure, and also higher prices in ramp and passenger services. In average, the price increase in the subsegment passenger services, of course, is much lower than in the central infrastructure. Then your third question was regarding the joint venture with Heinemann Brothers. This is a long-term joint venture. It runs, I think, 2031, and the conditions are fixed and given and fine. It's a very fair and favorable joint venture for both of us, and we, regarding all the conditions, we are on the same level like in 2019.
Thank you very much. Thanks.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi there. Can you please just discuss or reassure, I don't know, the CapEx outlook for Q3? Certainly chatting to investors, people are curious as to whether the guidance can be maintained. Then can you also just discuss how the staffing is on the ramp with operations and also in security? Are those operations running smoothly? Are you nicely confident as you ramp up the traffic, that there will be no challenges through security or on the ramp? Thanks.
Yeah, thanks for the question. First was regarding CapEx, and regarding CapEx, I would like to put the focus on one slide, which we have in the appendix. Give me just a second. It's slide number 30. Here, you could see the CapEx guidance, which we gave in the beginning of the fiscal year 2023, and this is still valid. There's just so far one specification that regarding Q3, we can confirm the 5, which you can see on the slide, the EUR 550 million for the full year, Q3. Also, regarding other CapEx, EUR 200, perhaps EUR 250 million, could be a little bit more.
Regarding Lima, we will end up at the upper side of the range, so it's going against EUR 450 million, while regarding all other airports, we will be clearly below EUR 100 million. If you put all together, we will end up, as of today, between EUR 1.3 and maximum EUR 1.35, as mentioned on this slide. Second, staff situation in first of all, ground handling. Again, some remarks regarding the situation. Our capacity as well as quality problems in ground handling in the last year, I have to say, since the Easter holidays, we have a significant improvement now, and it runs relatively smooth, the operation. This has not to do with the number of FTEs or full-time equivalents.
Our main problem was the, the qualification of the people in this segment, because most, a lot of them are new and have, and have to be educated and skilled, and this took and takes time, but we are now on a good way. Now, looking forward, we still continue improving the qualifications of the people, the driving licenses, licenses to operate machines and some cars, et cetera, special cars. This is working very well, and as an express of this, you see the quality indicators, which month by month, are going up and really less complaints. Looking forward now for the rest of the year, we expect a relatively low 3-digit further increase in ground handling.
Most of the recruitment is done, and this is what still is ahead of us, is working on the qualification side. In security itself, if you look now on all the KPIs, in security, waiting times, et cetera, it's very good. We are now in the middle of the peak season, no complaints. It's running really very well here at Frankfurt Airport, and we and also the other service providers, ISEC as well as Securitas, they are working on further recruitments, already preparing the year 2024. As of today, we are absolutely optimistic to have the sufficient number of employees in ground handling as well as in the security business, to be able to manage a full recovery, if possible, in 2024.
Lovely, thank you.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Graham Hunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Maybe just two questions from me. First, on the retail division, and the Chinese travelers that you're seeing so far. Can you give any color on the level of spend that you're seeing from them relative to where that was sort of pre-COVID? They used to give some information around how that compared to other, other nationality travelers. I just wondered where you're seeing that today versus maybe where you're expecting it to be. Then second question is just on some of your international stakes. How are you thinking about those in terms of your deleveraging? Are there any of them that you would consider potentially reducing down?
I assume you would want to maintain a majority, but, are there any that you would look at, as potential paths to accelerate deleveraging and, and maybe get back to retaining dividends a little bit faster, just on that international side? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks for the questions. First question, Chinese. They are coming back, and we, we couldn't identify a change in their general behavior. Before COVID, it was five to six times of the average the spending behavior of the Chinese, and it seems to be that this is the same in the after COVID time. We can't see any change, clear preference for luxury goods, nothing has changed in their behavior. Regarding deleverage, we have a clear focus on, on the deleverage topic, and I think with our, so to say, modified guidance, saying that from 6.9 net debt to EBITDA last year, now there's headroom down to 6.5, even 6.4.
This is a good scenario just coming from the increase of EBITDA and CapEx in line with our expectation, on the other side. Now, looking forward in 2024, this will be another good year, but also having in mind that we continue with the high CapEx, because in Lima as well as here in Frankfurt for the Terminal 3, with full steam, we are finalizing the expansion program so that up from 25, then there's a decrease on the CapEx side. In Lima, because in the first half of 25, this project will be stopped or ended, we are absolutely in time and in budget, the same remains as well for Frankfurt.
We are absolutely sure that in 2026, we are going to open the terminal, so everything is on the line, and then the CapEx level is going down significantly, and this is generating a huge amount of free cash flow. Then we are using free cash flow to bring down also the absolute indebtedness, which we think is too high in the long run, and also to have headroom for other things, and one other thing is paying dividends. Clear indication now that in 2024, we are not going to pay dividends for 2023, and what will happen in 2025, we have to see, depending from all the financial KPIs and the further development. Clear focus is on deleveraging while reducing net debt to EBITDA, as well as the absolute indebtedness.
Okay, thanks.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.
Excellent. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Maybe the first one on the tariff increase in Frankfurt. I guess your, your tariffs are now 20%, around 20% higher than in 2019, which is great news, but in the same time, what does it mean for the opening of the new terminal? I mean, we, we know your main airline there is focusing on yields rather than on growing capacity, and we know that the low-cost carriers were complaining about the tariffs a couple of years ago. I guess, in this context, does it become increasingly difficult to get incremental traffic as Terminal 3 opens? That's maybe the first one. The second one, just looking at the Frankfurt OpEx in 2024-...
Could you give us a bit more color on the headwinds and tailwinds that, that we have there versus 2023, the main moving parts? The, the last one, if I may, if I look at the outstanding yield on some of your, sorry, if I look at the yield on some of your outstanding bonds, the 6-year bonds are now trading at around 5.3% yield to maturity. Now, could you elaborate a little bit how much of your excess cash you believe you can use over the next 15 months or so? You have this, the EUR 1.7 billion maturing, I think, over the next 15, 16 months. How much of that you can actually use your excess cash to, to terminate the debtor? Thank you.
A bunch of questions. Starting with the tariff increase. As you mentioned, I think the performance in the last two years, 4.3, 4.9%, and now 9.5% for 2024, is, is, is a good result, and without any hassle with the airlines. Also regarding the 9.5%, this is agreed with Lufthansa, and I have to say that we have an extremely good relationship with Lufthansa. It's best relationship since I remember. Very friendly, very cooperative, and despite the 9.5%. Why? Because if you look on the numbers of Lufthansa, they also have excellent numbers, and everybody knows that most of these numbers are produced here at Frankfurt Airport. It's a good situation. You can bring through high ticket prices.
Lufthansa is happy, and when they are happy, we are also happy. With the 9.5%, we are especially happy. What you mentioned, you have always when you look on the revenue side, it's a combination of volumes times prices. Just looking on volume increases is not what makes people happy, because if you have too strong passenger growth, this is followed often by additional CapEx, by additional OpEx. It's better to have a normal growth increase in line with the market, and we are growing in line with the market, and we have nice fee increases, and everything is fine with the airlines. This is also our strategy looking forward. To make the long story short, we don't have any reason to focus now on low cost.
We are happy with our customer base, and when a new airline would like to come, it's also they are welcomed, and but they have to accept the prices as it is. To create additional traffic with incentives, we do not think that this is the right way. We feel happy with the current situation. The airlines feel happy. We are looking forward. We will see additional growth. If you now assume, for example, based on our today's expectation, 6.5 million-6.6 million passengers next year, and another increase in 2025, 2026, we will end up exactly at about 70 million, when in 2026 we are going to open T3.
This, this is a fine situation where the capacity in the existing infrastructure of Fraport is then totally exhausted, and further growth will be realized via the additional capacity of Terminal 3. Everything is a smooth transformation into a new infrastructure, and there's no necessity to speed up the growth. With other words, we will not come with incentives or anything else. We continue with our current policy, a focus on a modest and normal passenger growth on one side, in combination with price increases, which follows the inflation rate. We feel happy. When you look on our financial results, I think this is a proof that the strategy is good. Regarding OpEx, we had the trends driven by the inflation rate.
On, on one side, the relatively expensive, tariff agreement with ver.di, TVÖD agreement, which costs us a lot of money. Also in our appendix, you can see the, the precise impact of this. This is on slide 34, where you can see the, the one-off payments in 2023, which altogether give a negative impact of EUR 30 million, in combination with the, so to say, carryover from last year, tariff increments, plus volume effect. It's, it's a combination of nearly EUR 100 million more personnel expenses, driven by more FTEs on one side and higher prices, 50% one-offs on the other side. This will also continue in 2024.
You can see exact then the impact in 2024, so the base payment of EUR 200 per employee, plus 5.5% on top of it, minimum of EUR 340 million. We make a calculation, what is the outcome of this package? This costs us EUR 70 million in 2024. We will see a high, another high step-up on the personnel cost side. On the other side-... You see the 9.5% fee increase. You see a solid 1 million increase on the passenger side in Frankfurt. On, on the aviation side, you see in retailing increase, in ground handling. I explained in detail what we expect also central infrastructure on one side, ramp and passenger service on the other side.
It's a high revenue increase, partly compensated by higher wages, but the net impact is clearly positive, and that's the reason why, from a today's perspective, the EBITDA in 2024 will be EUR 1.3x million as of today's calculation. Cash, third question. Cash position, also, I make reference to Slide 13, where you can see the total liquidity or available funds of EUR 5 billion, whereof EUR 3.7 billion is in our balance sheet, the rest are free credit lines. Directly available are the EUR 3.7 billion. We feel very comfortable, but knowing that looking forward in the long run, of course, this is too high, but today it's an expression of our strength. As long as we have negative free cash flow, we continue with relatively high liquidity.
The, let me say, the negative free cash flow situation now, the end is at the horizon. In 25, we are going to achieve breakeven of free cash flow. This is good. This means on the other side, that we are now step by step, also using some parts of this liquidity for repayment of debt. There will be now a gradual reduction of the liquidity, but not a significant in, in the next two years.
Thank you very much.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Dario Maglioni , from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Three questions for me. The first one on traffic guidance for Frankfurt Airport. The middle of the range for the full year implies traffic at around 90% of 2019 levels for the next five months. When I see the airlines have planned only 89% of capacity for those months, and they usually cut some planned capacity as time approaches. I just wonder, what makes you confident to hit the traffic guidance? The second question on OpEx, at Frankfurt Airport, maybe if you could tell us how, just for Frankfurt Airport, how that Q2 compares to 2019 level on a like-for-like comparison, how has this developed over the past few quarters? The last question is regarding Greece, which is doing very well.
I just wonder when, when will the concession payment kick in, and what traffic and EBITDA we should expect this year and next year, roughly speaking? Thanks.
First question, yes, we, as we said, we, the guidance is 80%-90% for the full year. We made a specification saying that we are in the middle. Middle is 85%, and 85% is equals about 60 million, 59.5, 60. In this range, we will end up. This means on the other side, that now in the second half, of course, the increase must be higher, as you mentioned. We will see up to 90% of the 2019 numbers, so that mathematically, in average, we can expect 85% for the full year. A much higher passenger number in a percentage expressed in the second part.
Your implicit question is a high utilization of the capacity offered by the airlines. Regarding OpEx, we always make a comparison to 2019, and we have to remember or to start end of 2021, where we showed an OpEx reduction regarding the three Frankfurt segments of more than EUR 400 million. We have already in last year, headwind by absence of short-time work, high energy costs, wage increases, et cetera, additional payments for the summer operation and ground handling, so that we ended up end of 2022, with a lower OpEx level of about EUR 170 million, as far as I remember.
Coming from more than 400, end of 2022, ending in 170, 400 in 2021, 170 in 2022. This is a starting base, and now you see the expensive wage agreement, which we have expressed on slide, what was this number? 33. It costs us always, adjusted by the carve out of security, costs us another EUR 100 million higher personnel cost, and there are EUR 30 million just as a one-off. This inflation compensation payment, we still have or had in the first half year, higher energy costs.
We have still temporarily more employees, from, from the market to support our own staff, our staff in ground handling, also inflation-based, higher cost base, for maintenance, things, so that at the end of the year, we will end up flat or up to minus, being flat and minus EUR 30 million compared to 2019. With other words, this is what we achieved by have a sustainable reduction of the number of personnel is, is still there as a positive impact, but in the last 3 years, we have this inflation, accumulated inflation, and this compensated all the volume effects, which we realized in the beginning of the, the COVID period. Regarding Greece, the variable concession payment will kick in in 2024.
That's the reason why absolutely seeing the EBITDA in 2024 increase will be lower than in 2023. We had in, I think last year, we had EUR 270 million. You also can see on chart 32, we had in, in last year, we had a total EBITDA of EUR 272 million. There are EUR 77 million COVID compensation. In this year, we still have a COVID compensation, which you can also see on the chart of EUR 35 million. A significant reduction. A better underlying increase of EBITDA by higher volumes and 8% price increase. Perhaps as of today, we will end up EUR 250 million EBITDA in total in Greece. In 2024, there's no any longer a COVID compensation, but still higher passenger numbers and a further unknown price increase.
That as of end, the kick in, yeah, this is, means the absence of, of, of, of COVID is, is to pay variable fees, so that we will end up with an EBITDA, which is below EUR 250 million. This is a, a calculation as of today. Yeah, I think I have answered all your questions.
Thank you very much, Matthias.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Satish Sivakumar from Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I got two questions here. Firstly, on the retail spend of PAX, obviously for the quarter, you did about EUR 3.02 with the shopping around EUR 2.62. How does it actually extended during the quarter, or was it like April, May and June? Any color on what are the June exit rate would be helpful. Secondly, on this Fraport Greece , if I look at, say, a couple of weeks ago, Aegean did mention that they are seeing last-minute cancellations from airlines, as well as last week, because they've cut capacity growth for the current quarter, actually. What are you seeing on Fraport Greece ? Are you seeing, like, airlines pulling capacity at the last minute, or is it just more specific to, say, some of your peers? Thank you.
In Greece, starting with Greece, we are absolutely optimistic. In, in the press, you could see, you could read something about fires in, in Rhodes as well as in Corfu . It, it's a press, if you talk to the people spending, having the holidays, they are, they're absolutely happy. If you look just on the numbers, you can't see any negative impact, by these, phenomenons. With other words, the industry is, is, is booming, everybody is happy, and you see, the actual numbers, which, is proof that the trend is unbroken, and Greece is very attractive. Why? Because there have been a lot of investments in, in, in luxury units, luxury hotels, boutique hotels, very individual, things.
People like and love Greece, and looking forward, we don't hear any negative things which could occur in 2024. The success story of Greece, we think the momentum is given, we can't see a breach of this good development. Of course, the volume increase, which we are going to see this year, cannot exactly continue in next year. It also due to the availability of capacity, airline capacity, hotel capacity, et cetera. It's still very positive, and we expect also in 2024 a continuation of this success story. In retail, we had, when I look on the numbers, in the months itself, we had in April, we had EUR 2.90.
We had in May, exactly EUR 3, and we had in June, EUR 3.10. In average? The, what you can see on Slide number 9, the EUR 3.02. The good thing is, EUR 2.90, EUR 3, EUR 3.10, so it's, it's coincidence. It's a clear linear increase, and this might be that the driver for this are the Chinese, because it's really parallel to the, to the, to the performance of, of the Chinese. That's also the reason why we are so confident, and that the good trend will continue now in the second half.
Thank you. That's helpful.
Welcome.
The next question comes from Manish Beria, from Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the retail segment. Here, you said, your EBITDA will just be near the FY 2019 levels. You also commented, I mean, the spending per pax would be something around EUR 3.3-3.4. When you put this into our model, I mean, I get an EBITDA that is much higher versus 2019 levels. Can you explain, like, what could be the margins? I mean, will not be the margin can be the same, like, 2019 level of 78% in the retail segment? This is the first question. The second one is on the Ground Handling division. You said you want to take the margins to the sustainable level.
Of course, your margin in the second half will be the EBITDA in the second half will be positive. Can you say when we'll reach the sustainable level of margins, in which year, and what will be the progression?
Yeah, in, first question, EBITDA outlook, retail and real estate. It can be, we had in 2019, I think we had EUR 398 million EBITDA.
Correct.
Thank you. It can be that we end up with EUR 400 million. As I said, we will end up at about EUR 400 million. Your question is why it should be better, so it's my understanding of your question. Please have in mind that we have two things or three things. We have the weakness in advertisement. It's small item, but nevertheless. Second, we have the inflation regarding material expenses. The main driver also was a one-off effect in 2019, in Q1, when we made a real estate project with an extraordinary gain of EUR 22 million. If you're looking on an adjusted basis, I'm absolutely confident that 2023, and this segment will be better than 2019.
Again, despite the, the special effect in 2019 with a little tailwind, yes, it can be that the absolute EBITDA will overcome EUR 400 million. This is possible. Ground handling. Ground handling is in so far, it's difficult, you know, because we are not on the revenue side. I think on the revenue side, it's, it's relatively okay. The ramp up, we have, we have to accept, so to say, this very expensive tariff agreement. The ingredients, so to say, I explained in the, the chart in the appendix. This costs us a lot of money, but now looking forward into the second half, we have, and so far, the phenomenon that the cost base, more or less, compared to the first half, is flat.
On the other side, we see passenger-driven higher revenues, and we see also now, or we expect a little bit better productivity. The, the lack of qualification in the past has, or our attempt to compensate this, to bring in additional staff, especially from, from service providers, which was very expensive and the productivity relatively low because these are new guys and not qualified. Looking forward, the productivity must become better. That's the reason, and we do not expect any special or negative special effects in the second half of the year. That's the reason that it can be that we run ground handling in the second half, more or less, break even. I think tendency negative, but we are coming close to, to zero in the second half.
Now looking forward into, which is much more interesting, looking forward. For the full year 2023, a clear double-digit negative EBITDA contribution from ground handling, EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million minus is, is, is, clear will be the outcome, or even minus EUR 50 million, I do not expect, but it's not impossible. Looking forward now to 2024, as I mentioned, we will go into the central infrastructure with a relatively high single-digit price increase. And central infrastructure covers 50% of the revenue. Here we can compensate the wage increase. On the ramp and passenger services side, the price increase is lower. There's a mismatch between the wage increase and the price increase, but therefore, we have higher volumes. 5 million-6 million more passengers, which also helps to generate more revenue.
We try to bring down the number of staff, which we ordered from service providers. We, in 2024, it's also the year where we will start a strong focus on productivity again. Now, the, the, the focus is on qualifications, qualifications, qualifications, quality. 2024 is a much stronger focus on productivity, so that there is a chance to come to breakeven. It's a chance, it's not today's clear guidance.
What is the sustainable margins, in the ground handling, over time, let's say?
Margins, even in good times, I would say 3, 5%. 3%-5%. This is, let me say, a normal margin in this business in normal times.
Okay. The last one, if I may, you said, I mean, the focus will be to reduce the leverage by increasing the EBITDA. Of course, EBITDA is going to increase, that will bring down the net debt to EBITDA, but also the absolute gross debt, no? I guess, I mean, there will be, in your mind, a certain level of leverage, net debt to EBITDA. When you start paying, you're reaching there, you start paying dividends, let's say, because you want to bring down, no, that number. So what is that number? I mean, the sustainable net debt to EBITDA, when we can model in our model, the dividend, extra, extra cash, that whatever comes in, goes for dividend or, or let's say, a growth investment, no?
What is that, sustainable net debt to EBITDA or reasonable net debt to EBITDA?
Latest, when we reach 5 times net debt to EBITDA, latest, latest KPI. Next year, no dividend. Let me say, we, we have two clear years. In, in next year, we don't any dividend for 2023. That, that's for clear. I would say in, in 2026, we are going to pay for 2025, and this is also clear. The question is: Are we going to pay in 2025 for 2024? This is, this is a question mark, and this depends how successfully now we are bringing forward all the numbers, the net debt to EBITDA, et cetera. You know, next year, no dividend. In 2026 for 2025, yes. In the year in between, it's a crystal ball.
Okay.
Yeah.
Thanks.
As a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one at this time. The next question comes from José Arroyo from Santander. Please go ahead.
Hello, good afternoon. Just one question on this one, slide 30, where you say that you expect the net debt to end the year 2023, EUR 100 million lower than before. I've noticed that this seems to come from your belief that you will not need to pay a dividend to a minority. Can you tell us what minority that is, and why this dividend has been suspended? Thank you.
It was difficult to understand you because the transmission was not so good. My understanding is your question is regarding Greece. Is it correct, the dividend and the, the impact of the Greece dividend to the indebted? Is this correct?
Yes, it's correct. That's the question. Yes. Thank you.
Yeah, we had, I have to make reference to the chart, number 30. Just a minute. Please look on Slide 30. Here we had the change on the right-hand side. We had before, minus 100, and now it's 0. Why the change? When we, the intention is to pay now year-by-year, very high dividends from Greece to the shareholders, and we have 3 shareholders. We are the main shareholder. The second shareholder is a Copelouzos Group from Greece, and the third shareholder, with a small portion, is a French investor. When you have, just as an example, when you have, you have EUR 100 million cash in Greece, in the company itself.
The EUR 100 million cash, of course, is reducing the net debt, because if you have EUR 1 billion debt and you have EUR 100 million cash, your net debt in Greece would be, just an example, EUR 900 million. This is in the consolidation, because Greece is fully consolidated. If and when you are now going to pay out EUR 100 million, the cash, as a dividend, we are going to receive EUR 70 million. This is our share. Then EUR 100 million is leaving Greece, and just EUR 70 million is arriving at Fraport AG, because the other EUR 30 million are going to the other two shareholders. There is a if you pay directly dividends, there's always a leakage of 30% of the paid dividends before everything is fully consolidated. Then you have EUR 100 million less cash in Greece.
This is increasing the indebtedness, ceteris paribus, by EUR 100 million. Seventy million is compensated because the cash position at Fraport AG is going up and a leakage of 30% - the other shareholders. Before, we the intention is to pay, what was it? EUR 300 million, nearly EUR 300 million, EUR 350 million dividends. We paid the EUR 350 million. Due to financial engineering, we decided to pay the EUR 300 million.
EUR 250.
EUR 250 million. The EUR 250 million, not in the form of the official dividend, just to repay the shareholder loan. So it's the same money which is transferred to the shareholders, to us, and to the other two guys. When Greece is reducing the shareholder loans, you don't have the leakage, because in the consolidation, when you pay EUR 250 million dividends, the cash is going down by EUR 250 million, but the indebtedness of Fraport Greece is also going down by EUR 250 million. By changing the way of paying the money to the shareholders, compared to the former plan, paying direct dividends, we have, first of all, a tax advantage.
Second, the leakage in the consolidation treatment is not any longer given. That's the reason why we now we have these positive effect in the guidance, which we changed, because we changed the way of repaying the money to the shareholders. I hope, a little bit complicated, but I hope I could explain it.
Thank you.
Welcome.
There are no further questions at this time, and I hand back to Christoph Nänkel for closing comments.
Thank you all for your good questions and comments. If you have further questions, please give us a call. Yeah, I wish you a good afternoon, and we will speak again in November for the Q3. Thank you.