Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Stewart, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the conference call of Fraport AG. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your touch-tone telephone. Please press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. May I now hand you over to your host today, Christoph Nanke, SVP, Head of Finance and IR? Please go ahead.
Thank you, Stewart. Also, warm welcome from my side. With me in the room, and this is not obvious these days, I have Dr. Matthias Zieschang, our CFO. He will guide you through the presentation, and then there will be time for your questions. So let's start.
Yeah, thank you, Christoph. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and also warm welcome this afternoon to our Q1 presentation here from Frankfurt. Unfortunately, today we are looking at a quarter which is not comparable to what we ever have seen before. The coronavirus pandemic affects global aviation to an unprecedented extent. Today, we see a decline in traffic beyond 90% of the numbers we saw last year. Therefore, keep in mind that when we are talking about the first quarter of 2020, it was just the beginning of the crisis and is not fully reflecting the consequences of the travel restrictions we have been facing since then. With this, I would like to start my presentation on slide four.
Driven by the significant declines in March, we see on the revenue side a decline of 18% or 13% when adjusted for revenues related to CapEx at our international airports according to IFRIC 12. To counter the negative traffic and revenue performances, we have introduced a hiring freeze and the adjustment of shift plans already in February. However, one of the most powerful instruments during this crisis, the application of short-time work, has only started at the end of March, so that the effect of the countermeasures until the end of March is relatively limited, resulting in a decline of the EBITDA level of 36%. Due to D&A and interest rates on 2019 levels for the first time since our IPO, we realized a negative group result in the first quarter at -EUR 29 million and a negative EPS of -EUR 0.31.
On slide number five, I would like to continue with some more details about our segment's financials. The traffic performance of minus 25% in Frankfurt also left its marks in the three Frankfurt segments. It becomes clear at first sight that all revenue streams, except for real estate revenues and all operational results, were declining. Still, what is also apparent is that not all revenue streams are declining in the same magnitude as traffic performance. Some revenues, especially within the aviation and ground handling segments, are not only passenger-related but also linked to aircraft movements and maximum take-off weights, which did not decline in the same magnitude as passenger figures. As mentioned before, we see stable revenues from real estate, and this is what we also expect to continue on the basis of fixed rent contracts for the remaining year as long as the tenants are able to pay.
On the other hand, retail revenues heavily suffered from the traffic decline despite realizing an increase in revenue per passenger of 4.3% over Q1 2019 to now EUR 3.61. Taking a look at the EBITDA development of the Frankfurt segments, it becomes evident that especially in our operating divisions, aviation and ground handling, we have not been able yet to steer against the revenue decline as much as it is needed to minimize losses due to the time lag of the effects of the countermeasures. In our international business, you see that the revenue decline was not as sharp as in the Frankfurt segments, but still significant. All our group companies are developing plans to counteract the negative effects from the coronavirus pandemic, which have become more visible over the past weeks.
On the back of our preliminary financials for April, it is clear that Q2 is getting even more challenging than Q1. But we are now able to make full use of our introduced countermeasures, which will lead to a better cost performance in the upcoming weeks and months. I will give you more details on possible savings later in my presentation. Besides the operational countermeasures, we are predominantly focusing on cash management these days, which also includes financing measures. On slide six of my presentation, you find the development of our group liquidity starting from year-end 2019. As reported with our full-year financials, we had a liquidity position of about EUR 1.7 billion as of December 31, 2019. Over the first months of 2020, we have successfully signed new financing contracts with banks in the amount of EUR 875 million at an average rate of 0.8%, predominantly through bilateral agreements.
Like this, on March 31, we closed our balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents in the amount of EUR 1.3 billion and unused credit lines of nearly EUR 900 million, totaling up to more than EUR 2.2 billion. In Frankfurt alone, we have access to more than EUR 1.4 billion, and also our international group companies are well equipped with cash at this point in time. In the meantime, until today, we were able to secure another EUR 350 million so that without reflecting the free cash flow in April, our current cash position stands at more than EUR 2.5 billion.
It is clear that we are not stopping our financing activities here, but already today, with such a strong balance sheet and the continued access to the capital markets, we are confident that we can steer the company through this crisis without the need for any state aid loans. Having said this, on the next slide, so slide number seven, you'll find an update on our group cash flow in Q1 and our current net debt situation. Starting with the operational performance, it is not a surprise that our operational cash flow decreased on the back of the traffic declines and even more if adjusted for working capital changes. Already, with our full-year 2019 presentation, we informed you that we will continue all our ongoing investment programs in Frankfurt regarding Terminal 3 in Greece, in Lima, and in Brazil.
For these four programs together, we spent more than EUR 180 million in Q1. On top of that, we spent EUR 80 million primarily for maintenance CapEx programs in Frankfurt, which had already been contracted prior to the crisis. All in all, our group free cash flow, therefore, was clearly negative and amounted to minus EUR 196 million. Our net debt as of March 31, thus, was about EUR 4.3 billion, an increase of 4% over Q1 2019. Moving on from the financial developments to the market environment on slide nine. Here you see the situation we are currently facing and some of the headlines describing how aviation worldwide was coming down almost to zero. Starting at our home base, you know Frankfurt Airport as a gateway to the world. This is currently no longer valid.
96% of all travel destinations or countries have either closed their borders completely or introduced massive travel restrictions. Still, we have to keep Frankfurt Airport open as a crucial infrastructure for Germany, also to guarantee the supply chain from abroad. As in the past, Frankfurt Airport remains the most important cargo hub in Europe and is these days by far the busiest airport compared to other European airports, also obviously at a very low level of only a bit more than 200 movements per day. This is why we had to react and currently do not use Terminal 2 and parts of Terminal 1 for passenger operations and also temporarily have closed two out of the four runways to reduce operational costs.
In addition to that, since the end of March, we have 80% of our staff in Frankfurt on short-time work, which means that they are working at reduced hours of up to 100%. Looking abroad to our international group airports, the biggest restrictions we are seeing in Slovenia and Peru, where we have been obliged to close our capital airports temporarily since mid-March. At all other airports, we see material travel restrictions especially impacting international traffic. In Antalya, for example, also domestic travel has now been stopped. Many airports are only operating on emergency flight plans providing for a minimum service to guarantee supply. It is interesting to look, however, at Xi'an in China, where traffic slowly starts to recover. After a decline of 87% year-over-year in February, we are observing a slight recovery here, which leads me to my next slide.
So number 10, the group traffic numbers show you the traffic performances in March and the year-to-date numbers for all our group airports. Looking at the cumulated figures in the middle of the table, it becomes clear that the impact from the coronavirus was still limited in Q1 compared to what we are seeing these days and over the past weeks. Our airports were still operating on more or less normal levels in January and February, except for Xi'an, which was hit by the virus earlier. Looking at the March figures separately in the left column, we see already more significant declines all over the portfolio.
Based on the information that I gave you on my previous slide and looking at the preliminary passenger data for Frankfurt in April of -97%, it is pretty clear that we have not reached the floor yet and we will see further declines in April for the whole group, which will probably continue into May and most of June. Based on our current assumption, we expect traffic to restart somewhere in June, July, mainly depending on the lifting of global travel restrictions. Certainly, we are open to implement necessary operational measures to bring up passenger numbers again and have already started preparatory works. We discuss here signs for social distancing, announcement, masks or flexible staffing to allow for the necessary distance, etc. However, in the end, it will be a political decision to open up the borders and to allow for air travel again.
For this reason, it is impossible for us to predict the traffic development for the full year 2020, but we will definitely see an enormous decline over the 2019 record numbers that we saw at most of our group airports. The negative traffic performances across the group in Q1 and the foreseeable negative performance in the year ahead brings me to my next topic, our cash management. On slide 11, you see the main areas we focus on. Firstly, our minimum revenue position, so the main drivers for our revenue and which share is not correlated to traffic itself. Secondly, our OpEx position, how is it split and what cost items can we influence. And thirdly, our CapEx program and how can we reduce the cash drag here. Let me now start with our revenue position in Frankfurt.
You can see on chart 12 that most of the revenues we generate in Frankfurt are linked to the effective traffic development. Out of the total revenues of more than EUR 2.2 billion, only a minor share of some 10% is derived from long-term rental contracts within our retail and real estate division. The positive performance of cargo certainly is welcomed by the airlines. For us, the profit contribution from cargo, however, is hardly visible. Revenue from security service, which we continue to see, are however balanced with cost in more or less the same amount, and therefore we don't need to focus on this item in terms of revenues and costs, so revenues in Frankfurt are clearly dominated by the traffic performance.
Still, it is worth noting that among these traffic-driven revenue streams, not all of them are linked to passenger development only, but especially ground handling and infrastructure revenues are driven by movements and maximum take-off weights. The same picture we prepared for our international holdings. Out of the EUR 1.4 billion of revenues, we first must deduct the IFRIC 12 effect, which is balanced with cost in the same amount. So the underlying revenue figure that is relevant for EBITDA is about EUR 1 billion. Here, as with our Frankfurt operations, the clear majority of revenues is linked to the traffic performances across our group airports. Only a minor share of less than 10% is derived from fixed rental contracts. For your models, when you assume a possible revenue reduction, certainly some airports have a bigger share in our revenues, while other airports have a smaller impact on revenues.
For example, Fraport Greece recorded revenues per passenger of about EUR 10 in the past year, while Lima Airport generated about EUR 15 per passenger, and Brazil only generated about EUR 6. So a percentage drop in passengers in Lima has a clearly bigger impact on group revenue than, for example, in Brazil. To assess a possible cash burn, you find a more detailed look at our group OpEx on slide number 14. Here we split the OpEx in between Frankfurt OpEx, IFRIC 12 OpEx, variable concession charges, and residual OpEx in international activities. While IFRIC 12 OpEx remains without any impact on EBITDA, the revenue-linked concession charges will develop in line with the reduced traffic volumes and/or the revenue generated in our international portfolio, respectively. So focal points of activities are Frankfurt OpEx and the underlying OpEx in international activities.
While Frankfurt OpEx represents almost two-thirds of the group OpEx, the underlying OpEx in international activities amounts to only roughly EUR 330 million or 20% of Frankfurt OpEx. This imbalance clearly is a result of the deep value chain we are having in Frankfurt, so the high number of self-managed operations and services. This kind of operations we usually do not have in our international portfolio. So Frankfurt OpEx and the reduction of this OpEx is key to reduce the operational cash drag in the group. On slide 15, you find the measures we have currently taken to reduce this item. Starting point of the activities is a staff cost item, which in total represents about EUR 1.1 billion, as shown on slide 14.
On slide 15, we reduce the number by roughly EUR 200 million, which is a pass-through element from rendering security and other services that are fully refinanced by revenue in the same amount. So we start at EUR 900 million of underlying staff cost in Frankfurt that we focus on and that we need to reduce. The biggest lever we are having here to reduce this item temporarily is a mean of short-time work, which we already discussed in March together with our full-year presentation. The total number of Frankfurt staff under short-time work amounts to 80% these days. As you can see on the chart, people that are sent on short-time work can have a reduced workload of 10% to up to 100%. The blended average rate of staff on short-time work is between 50%-60%.
For this staff, the German state will step in and pay up to 67% of the net salaries. To get the necessary approval from the Workers' Council for this measure, which is necessary to apply for short-time work, we decided to go for supplementary payments, which equal on average about 15% of the net salaries in addition to the state payment. Financially, the reduction of staff costs will be roughly 40% based on the average short-time work these days. Regarding cost of materials, the situation is slightly different. As a result of closing down airport infrastructure, so Terminal 2 and two runways, we expect to save temporarily up to 20%-25%. In total, we thus expect to reduce the operational cash burn from EUR 120 million per month to about EUR 80 million in the months of April and May.
Please be in mind here that the savings will be different once the traffic is set to restart in June and July, and we will gradually ramp up the infrastructure and staff again. A more detailed breakdown of our international OpEx can be found on slide 16. Here you see what I already highlighted before. On the one side, international OpEx only represents a minor amount of about EUR 330 million per annum. Or if I just focus on the lowest OpEx quarters in off-seasons, international OpEx amounts to about EUR 60 million in a single quarter. Translating this number into monthly figures, the lowest OpEx quarter represents only about EUR 20 million on a monthly basis. This figure compares to the EUR 120-130 million for Frankfurt OpEx that we discussed before. By all these cost-saving measures, we expect a further reduction of up to 25% here as possible.
This figure seems low when compared to the expected savings in Frankfurt, but please bear in mind that the value chain in international activities is way shorter, and we usually don't have the means of short-time work in international activities, so we need to make staff redundant. As a result, we expect to reduce the OpEx in international activities to a level of about EUR 15 million per month during this period of very low traffic. Adding this number to the before-mentioned 70 million in Frankfurt brings us to a group OpEx of about EUR 85 million per month. Moving on to CapEx as a pillar of cash streams out of the company. On chart 17, you will find our updated CapEx outlook. Where do we steer against? You see that we have reduced the CapEx outlook for Frankfurt by some EUR 200 million versus our initial planning.
While the reduction in CapEx for T3 was unintended and came as a result of the slowdown of the construction site due to missing workers from Eastern Europe, the savings on other CapEx is a result of countermeasures that we initiated. Whereas in Q1 and Q2, the CapEx amount in other CapEx will still reflect the contracts that we signed in the past couple of months. We will see reduced cash outflows in the second half of the year. Basically, we have put all investments that are not needed from a 100% operational view under review. This clear CapEx focus we will also continue so that we do not expect to see the high level of about EUR 350 million that we guided for at the beginning of the year to materialize in the upcoming years either. Changes we also made to the planning in Lima.
While the new runway is still on track to be constructed, we have also put the terminal construction under review. In Lima, we do not have a clear visibility on the airline landscape and the path of recovery post-Corona. This and the temporary shutdown of the construction site will lead to reduced cash outflows of about EUR 100 million this year compared to the previous planning. So that the new CapEx figure for Lima stands between EUR 100 million and EUR 200 million euro. Brazil and Greece continue as planned. However, you are also aware of the sharp devaluation of the Brazilian real most recently. The devaluation will lead to lower euro amounts, which is why we also reduced the CapEx guidance here for Brazil. In total, we therefore expect to cash out between EUR 1 billion and maximum EUR 1.2 billion for CapEx, plus a capitalization of borrowing cost and fixed concession charges.
On average, this is about 100 million EUR cash outflows for CapEx on the group level per month. Summing up the before-mentioned figures, we faced about 100 million EUR cash outflows for CapEx and 95 million EUR operational expenses per month. The sum needs to be reduced by some 30 million EUR of revenues we expect from Frankfurt due to fixed rental contracts and the lower business operations and about 10 million EUR from international activities. So we expect an operational cash burn, including CapEx, of about 150 million EUR per month these days for the group. What do we need to bear in mind in addition? On top of the operational cash flow, we also have to consider the repayment of loans. On chart 18, you can find our repayment scheme.
As shown on slide 6, we already paid back some EUR 150 million bank loans in the first quarter, which leaves us with some EUR 360 million repayments for the remainder of the year. Here, an amount of some EUR 230 million stands in connection with the repayment of revolving credit facilities, which reduces our reported cash and cash equivalents, but increases the amount of unused credit lines again, so no reduction of the total liquidity position of the group. Scheduled repayments of mid to long-term debt therefore will amount to some EUR 130 million in the year ahead. Even in a worst-case scenario, the reduced traffic remains at a level of minus 90% or even more for the rest of the year, which we do not expect. We burn some EUR 150 million of cash per month for the upcoming three quarters.
Based on these assumptions, without any additional financing, our liquidity would still last clearly into the next year. This shows that we have a very comfortable cash situation. Coming to my last slide for today, the group outlook. The outlook these days is unchanged. Still, there's no visibility to guide you for a precise traffic and financial performance. However, as described before, we highlighted you the components in our P&L that are linked to traffic in Frankfurt and international activities. On OpEx, we have just started to implement the short-time work, and we expect to see some more long-term savings here. For the time being, we continue to see sharp traffic and earnings reductions across the group. For Frankfurt, we also provided you the guidance of EUR 10-EUR 14 per lost passenger on EBITDA .
For our very seasonal leisure airports in Europe, we still expect to see some traffic during the key quarter, Q3, in this year because this is a holiday quarter. Clearly, we will be in a better position to provide you a more detailed outlook with our Q2 results, and we will also have the first results of our OpEx countermeasures. From today's perspective, however, we expect to see a negative group result and negative EPS for the full year, so thank you for your attention so far, and we are happy to hear your questions now.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two.
If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question. The first question is from the line of Ruxandra Haradau-Döser from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Three questions, please. First, do you see opportunities in the current environment for some sustainable medium-term cost savings at Frankfurt Airport? Second, given the current situation, do you consider some medium-term adjustments of your CapEx plans? And third, could you please give us the share of leisure traffic in overall traffic at Frankfurt Airport and for the group? Thank you very much.
Yeah, thank you for the questions. Mrs. Haradau-Döser, sustainable cost savings and medium CapEx program. Both items are linked together. Let's start with CapEx.
We told you in the presentation that we are going to reduce the CapEx at Frankfurt down by minus EUR 150 million. And this is not just a short-term reduction announcement. We went through to the long-term CapEx plan. And based on real projects which have been in the pipeline the next couple of years, we really drilled down this program. And what is already decided also in the management board is that year by year, you will see this reduction of nearly EUR 150 million so that you can, for the next couple of years, expect a new CapEx level for maintenance CapEx. So all CapEx without or except Terminal 3 on a level of maximum up to between EUR 200 million and EUR 250 million per annum. So this brings us support on the cash flow side.
On the OpEx side, of course, the first task is to bring it down to the new normal level of passengers, what we will see in the next couple of years. So nobody knows how the recovery will be, whether we talk about a V formation or a U or hockey stick, nobody knows. But we have to be prepared that up from 2020 and then also 2021, when we see the new normal baseline on traffic numbers, that our, let me say, cost base is, yeah, is fitting the level of revenues. And this is our responsibility. And here we have prepared different scenarios. And third question with regards to leisure we have in Frankfurt. Yeah, I would say the question, how do you differentiate, let me say, the passengers?
You have businessmen on one side, and then on the other side, if you define all the rest as leisure, or do you make a difference between ethnic traffic and pure leisure traffic? So it's always difficult. What is the definition? So if you take all the businessmen, we have 35% business traffic at Frankfurt and then 65% leisure and ethnic traffic. I think the differentiation in so far is important because when you look at the recovery or the speed of recovery, we expect that the ethnic traffic is the first traffic which will recover. So first ethnic traffic, second leisure, and third business traffic. So in Greece, in all our other destinations, it's totally different. So if you take the pure holiday airports together, Greece, Antalya, Bulgaria, so we talk about 90% leisure traffic. The rest is domestic traffic, and domestic traffic means more or less ethnic traffic.
If you take the average in the group without Frankfurt, so the percentage of leisure is about 80% except traffic. So far the answers.
Thank you.
Welcome.
Next question is from the line of Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So first of all, just to follow up from the previous question on CapEx, I was just wondering if you can give us a bit of your view or rationale or thinking about why maintaining the building of Terminal 3, given that you actually don't expect traffic to recover back to 2019 levels for quite a few years. So that's my first question. Second question on domestic flights. I mean, in France, we've seen some comments from the government looking to potentially ban flights, short-haul flights that would have an alternative train route under two and a half hours.
They're citing CO2 reasons. Is this something that you worry could happen in Germany as well? And then last question on the monthly OpEx savings. You've talked about 30 plus 10 plus 20 in the slides, but then you concluded about 75 million EUR, I think, per month, if I'm not mistaken. So I'm just wondering what I've missed there. And overall, if you could give us the monthly cash burn rate that you see at Frankfurt. Thank you.
Thank you for the questions. First topic was Terminal 3. So we always said, and we are saying, we continue the construction of Terminal 3, so we make full pressure on the speed because it's a very complex project. And if you're now going to stop it or to delay it, we are creating a disaster. So that's the reason why with full speed we continue.
Let me say we make good progress. We don't see a risk of cost overrun. On the opposite could be because if you look now in the construction market, which was totally overheated in the last two, three years, now overnight you have more or less a new situation that the pipeline of projects is going down, and it could be, and there are first signals in the market that the construction price level is going down because demand is also significantly, overnight, has been significantly reduced, so the only thing which is on the timeline running against us is the availability of craftsmen because on big construction sites like we have here in Frankfurt, you can say 80%-90% of the workers came especially from East European countries.
Due to these coronavirus restrictions to travel from countries into Germany and vice versa, a significant number of workers are not able to come to Germany or to leave Germany. This is some stumbling block on the road now. We have to see whether this has some impact on the timeline. This is one issue. Again, we do all to continue and to have pressure on it so that we can inaugurate this terminal end of 2023. In other words, 2023 means so you can use this terminal up from 2024. We are talking four years ahead of us. Nobody knows how the recovery will be in which formation, V, U, W, or hockey stick or whatever it could be, or L, even an L. Everybody expects there will be a recovery.
But I think to have four years ahead of us. This gives us a lot of comfort that when this huge infrastructure is ready, we can use it and there's also demand to use it. So I don't worry about this issue with regards to Terminal 3. Second question regarding domestic flights. I think if you listen to the press and the discussions before corona, everybody was talking about CO2. In the moment, there is no discussion about this issue. Everybody is focusing on employment rates, on number of employees, or unemployment rates. I think the whole discussion will change a little bit. Of course, CO2 will not disappear. But I do not see now a new situation that there will be pressure on domestic flights to stop them or cancel them.
I think in the moment, everybody would be happy to see again aircrafts because this brings a lot of people into work, and then now, I think also the whole political focus in the moment has changed a little bit away from ecological things, which still are very important, but now the focus is on the economy and the collateral damages of coronavirus, and so everybody now hopes that this will come up again, this segment of the industry, because a lot of people are living from aviation industry, and so in the moment, everybody hopes that the numbers go up and not that we are going to give a ban on domestic flights, etc., so I don't see any threat in this direction. With regards to OpEx savings, we hope to give you a clear view, so let me bring the numbers together.
We have OpEx in Frankfurt before the crisis, as well at the international airports, and after our countermeasures. In Frankfurt, our OpEx was before corona at a level of EUR 120 million per month, EUR 120 million OpEx per month before corona. Now, by reducing or primarily by short-time work and bringing down material expenses, we expect a level of EUR 80 million. EUR 120 million before corona, EUR 80 million after corona. On the international side, where the value chain is not so deep or long, we had before EUR 20 million. Here we see a reduction of EUR 5 million, so down to EUR 15 million. If you now add these two numbers together, before corona, Frankfurt EUR 120 million, international EUR 20 million, in total EUR 140 million. Now at Frankfurt, EUR 80 million, and the international business EUR 15 million makes together EUR 95 million.
The total difference of OpEx was EUR 140 million before, and now a level of around EUR 95 million. Okay, that's really clear. And then can you give us an idea of the monthly cash burn overall? If you now, so again, have in mind the numbers, OpEx is EUR 95 million on the group level now, Frankfurt and international. Then you have to add on the outflow side the average CapEx per month. Here we now assume roughly EUR 100 million. So the total cash outflow is EUR 100 million for CapEx, EUR 95 million for OpEx. And now the question mark is, what will be the revenue number? And on this worst-case scenario, which we now assume minus 95 everywhere, we see a revenue base of EUR 30 million at Frankfurt and EUR 10 million outside. So on the group level, roughly EUR 40 million, really as a rock bottom number. So we have cash out EUR 190-195 million.
We have cash minimum EUR 40 million. This makes a difference of roughly EUR 150 million cash burn per month, including all items, as a worst-case scenario in one month. In a theoretical world, that coronavirus would continue forever. We can say every month EUR 150 million cash burn, and you see our reserve without any additional financing activities. You can simply calculate how long we can survive. Let me say, the good thing is, I think the duration of our liquidity reserves without any additional financial activities is very long. Perhaps we are last man standing in this industry if minus 95% would continue. When we are dead, all the others are dead before us.
Then maybe to that EUR 150 million, you add also the financing cost monthly, right?
Everything is included.
Oh, in the EUR 150 million?
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
But I thought it was CapEx, OpEx, and revenue.
In the CapEx, you have also the capitalized interest because a big share of our monthly interest expenses is capitalized. So it's part of the CapEx. Based on IFRS accounting, we are forced to capitalize this interest payment. So we have a difference between interest, which we show in the P&L, and on the other side, the interest, which also is in cash outflow but is treated as CapEx.
Okay. Thanks very much.
We talk about EUR 5 million per month, which you can see in the P&L as interest expenses.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Welcome.
Next question is from the line of Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. A few, if I may.
Firstly, could you give us a rough range of your expectations for net debt at the end of this year? Secondly, if we take a scenario of net debt- to- EBITDA moving above six times on normalized earnings going forward, could you tell us what are the options on the table? What are the options available there? Would you be able to stay at these types of leverage for several years? Would you need to recapitalize the business? Would you consider equity issuance or selling stakes in some of our international assets at a certain moment? Any comment there? And the last one, if I may, on retail spend per passenger, your disclosure in the past has been very useful on the high spender tourist. But could you give us a ballpark number? What is the retail spend per passenger for long-haul passengers versus short-haul passengers?
Or any type of estimate and color there, please?
Yeah. Thank you for the questions. First topic was, as far as I remember, what will be the net debt at the end of the year? So it's a little bit on one side. I told you the cash burn in a worst-case scenario. So we have to see. This is not what we expect. Expect is just a hypothetical calculation. What would happen if nothing will change? In reality, everybody now expects that up from June, July, the markets will open again step by step. So some of the border restrictions will be lifted. And so then the recovery will start in this June, July period, also due to the fact that especially countries in the southern hemisphere of Europe, which are dependent from summer holidays and this touristic industry, they have a strong interest to open again.
But at the end of the day, this is a big question mark. How fast can we recover, which is not up to us, which really is linked to political decisions from a lot of countries. And this is the unknown parameter in all the calculations. So we just internally can make scenarios. What will happen if and when? And assuming a very slow recovery, so some recovery up from June, July, but a ramp-up path, which is not really steep. And of course, then you have some impact on the revenue side. So we see, let me say, the net debt of the group, I would say EUR 5.3 billion-EUR 5.4 billion. This is as of today, perhaps the best guess, assuming some ramp-up up from June, July regarding air traffic. You mentioned also the key financial ratios, net debt to EBITDA.
I think in the moment, to look on these parameters, it doesn't make any sense because we are in the deepest crisis ever, and I think with regards to all industries and companies, or most of the companies are now suffering, and now you have really to look when you look on the creditworthiness of the company, what is the long-term prospect? Do you have a healthy business? In a normal scenario, can you come back? Yes or no? I think these are the questions, and also when you can see we have now a proven track record. In the middle of the corona crisis, we went to the capital markets, and we realized nearly EUR 1 billion for 0.8%. And this is not because we have fantastic key financial figures. All of them are really down.
The reason is that the people and the capital market believe that in the long term, we have still a healthy business, that there will be a recovery. Nobody knows exactly when, but the recovery will come on one side, and second, also we are critical infrastructure. We are the number one airport in Germany. We are key for the export industry. When you look now, where is the cargo traffic realized? It's Frankfurt. We are full of cargo freighters, more than in normal situation, to bypass all these broken supply chains, and that's the reason that now lenders look on Fraport, also the shareholder background, and this gives comfort to the investors, not the destroyed financial parameters in the moment.
So we have to see if you look on 2020 and even already on 2021, it's for sure that in 2021, we are not back on track on the 2019 levels. This is for 100% sure. And so we have to see how far percent interest burden for one million collected now in the last month. But in the long run, of course, we have to readjust our business or business model in so far that even in one or two years, when we recover, but not be back on 2019 levels with regards to passenger numbers, we have restructured and readjusted our business model in a way that even with a lower number of passengers, then we have again positive financial numbers. This is our target on this challenge we are working. And I think we have good solutions on our desks.
We are starting to work on these items. The third question, retail spend. Yeah, as a rule of thumb, we always say that the spending behavior of long-haul traffic is about four times higher than on short-haul. It's a very general rule of thumb. It depends then what kind of carrier, what destinations behind. Also on short-haul routes, is it low cost? Is it not low cost? But in average, you can say more or less four times more on intercontinental flights compared to continental flights. So far, the answers.
Thank you very much. May I add a quick one on Lima terminal CapEx? I think there's around EUR 1 billion there that was in the plan in the past. How should we think about the timeline of that CapEx being spent?
It's a good question.
So first of all, in Lima, we have been so far in a very comfortable situation that we started already with the construction works, but just with earthworks with regards to the runway. So on this, we totally stopped. So everything on the construction side in Lima in the moment is on hold. And this is also so far good for us because you can say it's coincidence. We have been in the final stage to negotiate the EPC contract for the runway, but there was no final contract. So we could stop it without any financial collateral damage. So everything is stopped now. We will continue in the second quarter of this year again with the runway because we need the runway. It's totally exhausted in normal times. And so we have a delay on the runway side with regards to the terminal.
We are still in the planning phase. Normally, the beginning of the construction would have been, I would say, middle next year. But now we have to see how will also be the recovery in Lima. And depending from the answer of this question, we have some flexibility to delay. So it can be that we, as planned, will start in summer 2021. It also can be that we say we are waiting for another year. It's really up to the, let me say, the speed of the recovery in Peru. So it's good to have this flexibility with regards to the terminal because, as you mentioned, when you take the total CapEx amount of EUR 1.5 billion, roughly EUR 500 million is reserved for the runway. And again, we need the runway and EUR 1 billion for the terminal.
Let me say, having a flexibility to delay this terminal construction for one year, even two years, we have to see whether it makes sense. So if we really need it or don't need it and can delay it, this is an option which we have. And we have no pressure to decide now.
Thank you very much.
Welcome.
Next question is from the line of Stéphanie D'Ath from RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for answering my question. The first one is on government support. Could you please specify whether, after the containment measures are over, the support will continue until potentially the end of the year? Secondly, could you please explain the frequency of your discussion with local authorities and the government when it comes to looking at reopening the airport? And is the responsibility of potentially testing the passengers more on the airline or on you?
Have you done any progress there? He threw earlier a note that we're doing some progress on checking of the safety of passengers. Then related to that, I guess your discussions with Lufthansa and how you feel they can remain the biggest airline for the airport. Then finally, on regulation, you were under-earning your regulated revenue to some extent and decided not to increase tariffs. It would be, I guess, not the best backdrop to decide to now start increasing tariffs. But how would you make it possible to actually reach eventually that revenue you are supposed to earn? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you. This was a bunch of questions. First, as far as I remember, was state aid. So at the moment, we didn't get any state aid. Also, we didn't apply for state aid.
The only thing what we put on the table or brought to the discussion is that we still have Frankfurt Airport open. This costs some money, and despite the fact that we have less than 10,000 passengers per day, so from an economic perspective, it would make sense to close the airport, but we are forced to keep the airport open, and therefore, we calculated the cost requirements which are necessary to run this airport on a daily basis, and not just we, all the airports in Germany were also forced to keep the airports open. They calculated altogether their cost items, and now there is a discussion between us, us means the airports on one side, and the politicians, whether there will be some compensation for this service. Whether we, at the end of the day, will get something for this or not, don't ask me.
But it's on the table. We discuss about it, and we have to see whether we will get something. It's an upside potential, no downside risk. So then I think it was a question of reopening. So we have to say we are still open. The airports which are closed in the moment are Ljubljana in Slovenia, Lima in Peru, and Antalya in Turkey. So we don't know when they are going to open. I would guess that Turkey itself, they have a strong interest to open again because summer season is in front of the door. And prerequisite to run in holiday season is, and summer season is to have an open airport. That's the reason. The same applies more or less for Slovenia. And also for Peru, the Lima Capital Airport is a key infrastructure.
That's the reason why we assume that very shortly the airports will open again. Again, this is a political decision. In the moment, how decisions are made on the political level is not very transparent for all of us. Then, what's check-in and yeah, not check-in: security process and progress. I think in the past, everybody talked about productivity at security lines. In the moment, we have to see this issue with social distance. If you now are flying, you can see what will happen at the security line. Productivity is very low because you have to keep this distance from the other passengers. This is slowing down the speed to bring the people through the security line. We have to see how long all these measures will continue.
So in the moment, it's clear that the productivity or the future productivity at security lines will be lower than before coronavirus by these requirements from the bureaucracy. So Lufthansa, yeah, yesterday there was the annual meeting, and you could listen to the speech of the CEO and how far the progress is with regards to the talks between Lufthansa and, let me say, politicians. So based on this information, which we could read in the newspaper, we assume now in the next couple of days that they will come together. And they have finalized the package how to help Lufthansa and in which form. But we don't have any additional or new information. But we assume in the next couple of days, the problem will be solved.
And this would also be, I think, a good signal not just for the shareholders, but also for the capital markets and for everybody in this market then to have a clear new basis, a situation where the state is in, will give a strong support to the biggest airline, system-relevant airline of Germany. And I think this for all of us, also for us, would be a strong and good signal when everything then will be fixed. With regard to the tariffs, one thing is for sure. What we will do with the tariffs in 2021, this is too early. But one thing is for sure, we will not continue with our incentive program because to incentivize growth coming from minus 95%, this doesn't make any sense. So we always came with this program, and we have been on a very high level.
And one wanted to become even on a higher level, now starting from more or less zero and to incentivize action and ramp up, this would be ridiculous. So we will come with the old level or perhaps with a higher level. Nobody knows. This is something what we're discussing. But one thing is for sure, you will not see an incentive program in 2021. Yeah, I think this.
Sorry. I'm just following up on the frequency of your discussions with the government, I guess, especially as you mentioned on one of your slides, currently non-European citizens are not allowed to fly to Germany, and there are quarantine measures in place, etc. To which extent are you at the table for the discussion, and are you quickly aware of the rapidly changing environment, I guess, there?
In order to understand a bit better, when I meant reopening the airport, I meant kind of reopening so that everyone can fly or transfer within your airport.
Let me say we don't have any information which you don't have. And the politicians, they are not informing us in advance. So we really get the information from the newspapers like you, how Germany is going to open everything or not, and also in the other countries. So again, what we see now, this is a big concern. So if the summer season is zero, this would be a disaster for all these countries like Greece, Turkey, Italy, Spain, benefiting significantly with regards to their GDP growth from the tourism industry.
So I think everybody in these countries is absolutely aware that this is a key now, and they try to do all to save just, let me say, some percentage of this original traffic because otherwise all these touristic industries have a very crucial problem. And that's the reason why we and to protect something or to support something of this touristic traffic during the summer, we have more or less to open now step by step because otherwise the time is too short. And that's the reason why we assume that, yeah, up from, let's say, middle of June, markets will or the restrictions will be lifted step by step. So then people really can start to travel to Turkey, to Greece, again, to the islands. And that's our, let me say, best guess in the moment. But again, it's not up to us.
I think the travel warning itself doesn't have any impact to have a travel warning or not a travel warning. The key is that it is allowed to fly as long as it's not allowed. You can talk about travel warnings. I think this is, for me, not the key. The key is our restrictions.
I also wanted, please, to follow up on my first question. When I meant government support, I was thinking about the government program that pays 60% of salary of employees at the kind of technical unemployment. When you said.
So you mean the short-time work?
Yes, the short-time work.
In Germany. But this is not a special treatment of us. This is, let me say.
No, I know it's across Germany, but did they specify how long this program would be in place?
Because there is a question mark whether when, let's say, the company can't find that they stop paying.
Yeah. It's a good question. The normal length in the past has been 12 months, but now it's under discussion to extend this up to 24 months in Germany. The 12 months is a law. And now it's under discussion extension for up to 24 months.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Next question is from the line of Arthur Truslove from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hello. Arthur Truslove from Credit Suisse. So just a few from me. So first, very quickly on Xi'an, I just wanted to know whether you could give an update in terms of what the latest traffic trends that you are seeing there look like.
The second thing I was interested in was just if you could give us a little bit more color in terms of what measures you're taking and what collaboration you're doing with other airports in Europe to make it safe for people to travel and indeed to give people confidence that it will be safe to travel, and I guess thirdly, are you thinking of taking any sort of legal action against government for the lockdowns that are in place? Thank you.
Just a minute. Yeah. Xi'an, at the moment, the coronavirus started in China. So we had already in February, more or less, a shutdown in Xi'an, where in Europe, we just had these minus 90%, minus 95% passenger reductions end of March and up from beginning of April.
Xi'an is a little bit. I wouldn't say a showcase for recovery because you cannot compare China with Europe. But in February, they were down also to nearly -90%. And currently, they are up to -65%. So relatively good recovery in the last four, six weeks. But again, if you ask me, can this also happen here, I would say yes, it can, but nobody knows whether this is really a showcase also for Europe. But we have also received some information, for example, about the utilization rates of hotels. And here we got some data that in the moment, also, for example, in Xi'an, the utilization rate of hotels should be back at a level of -30, maximum -40% compared to pre-coronavirus times. This would be a good indication that recovery could be relatively fast.
But again, this is China, and we have really to see what will be the experience here in Europe. But again, your question in the moment, Xi'an is currently at minus 65%. So next question, what was it? Just a minute.
How does Credit Suisse state? The measures in collaboration with other airports to make passengers more co nfident. Yeah.
Yeah. Okay. Confidence of passengers. I think we are doing a lot of things. So first, the social distance is secured. There is mask obligation. The airlines have shown and explained that these filters in the aircraft, the air is absolutely clean. So if you look into and also hygiene measures inside the airports are given and foreseeable everywhere. So we don't hear from the current passengers and, let me say, the normal passengers any threat that it could be dangerous to fly.
I think the people are waiting again that they can fly, so the willingness is given. We don't see, let me say, the threat that most of the people are not any longer willing to fly. In so far, the airports did all the things which are necessary. All things are prepared, the social distance, mask requirements, hygienic measures, etc., so that we feel comfortable, and what we hear also from the passengers which still are flying that they also feel very secured and comfortable inside the aircraft and also inside the terminal, so no complaints, and they don't worry about this issue here.
What's your legal action, I think, government?
From our side?
Yes.
No, we don't have any. Of course, when we have, let me say, in the concession contracts, we have in some of them, we have force majeure clauses. We tried to use it.
We have also in South America so-called economic equilibrium, which must be secured. Now we say it's distorted. We are in discussion with the governments in the relevant countries focusing on these clauses, force majeure on one side, economic equilibrium on the other side. The legal basis is we have to see whether there is a legal basis or not. Could be an upside potential, but we cannot today say that based on this, we see a good probability to get something from the government. We try to do our best to use the legal arguments which we have. Whether they are striking or not, we have to see.
Sorry, just one follow-up on your comment on Xi'an. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the -65% figure was I mean, that's the level that you saw in March, give or take.
In terms of what you've seen in April, have things sort of continued to improve or actually have it sort of stalled at around the -65% level?
It's more or less it's more or less the same. So we can't see really an improvement in April.
Okay. Thank you.
We think the May will be perhaps a new month where it could be decisive for the further ramp up. We have to see. But in April, we can't see really a trend, let me say, going up from -65.
Thank you.
You're welcome.
Next question is from the line of Johannes Braun from MainFirst. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. Firstly, you talked about the travel recovery in June.
I was wondering, do you expect that there will be health checks for passengers or other pre-checks before they board the planes? And if that's the case, who will pay the costs that this might involve? And then secondly, again, on Terminal 3, I understand that this project is probably hard to stop. But if there is indeed a sustainable lower traffic level in Frankfurt due to, for example, Lufthansa cutting its fleet by 100 aircraft, how can you right-size your infrastructure then? Because I guess if there are 10%-15% fewer passengers after the crisis, you will probably not need the full airport infrastructure you're currently planning with. So would there be some flexibility to do something with Terminal 2 or even Terminal 1? Or what's the flexibility to adjust to a new normal after the crisis?
Mr. Braun, first topic, health checks.
So at the moment, we don't hear or there is no requirement to initiate some health checks. The question is, how should they work? And also your question, who should take or be the cost items? This is absolutely open. At the end of the day, I think everybody is aware that, let me say, the aviation industry must work again. And having too much restrictions is more or less would make it impossible to fly again. And I think, as I mentioned, some social distancing, hygienic measures, etc., all these things are important. They are already in place. And we are prepared even to do more. But to start with health checks, I think this is. I don't think that this would be the right thing. And at the moment, we don't hear that some bring the topic into the discussion with temperature measures.
But then you have a lot of question marks how this should be realized. But again, there is some discussion. One topic which is really discussed is temperature measurements. But I don't think this is a useful tool to contain, let me say, this corona threat. I think all the things which are already in place, this is really a good package of measures to avoid this risk of becoming affected from corona. With Terminal 3, again, we are talking about 2024 when passengers can use this terminal. This is a long time ahead of us. That's the reason why in the moment, I feel absolutely comfortable. But your question, nevertheless, there should be an answer. In this case, that even in 2024, we would have enough passengers to fill up all our three terminals.
Of course, we have the flexibility like now in the situation where Terminal 2 is totally closed. So in this scenario that we have, I don't know, 65 million passengers in 2024, which we do not expect, then of course, we can say we open Terminal 3 and we close temporarily Terminal 2. So we bring down the OpEx. We have still this capacity in place as a reserve terminal. And later on, we can reopen again this. And let me say the cost level to shut down Terminal 2, for example, for two, three years is absolutely low. This would be one answer. Also, for example, the C/D part of Terminal 1 could be closed overnight like now. And so we have this flexibility with parts of the existing terminals to scale down capacity even after the inauguration of Terminal 3 to have an adjustment on the OpEx side.
So we are able to do this. We have also these scenarios. But we think that this is not necessary then, though, in four years or in five years to go in this direction. But even if this was still on a low level, as I mentioned in my explanation, our presentation, we have so much flexibility on the OpEx side that we can follow on the OpEx side the revenue stream.
Okay. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Next question is from the line of Michael Kuhn from Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, gentlemen. A couple of follow-ups from my side. Sorry, once again, back to the restart of a bigger flight operation in Frankfurt. I mean, crucial for Lufthansa and for your model is a decent connectivity at the hub. So I would say gradual restart is pretty tricky from today's point of view.
What kind of ramp-up pattern do you see? And at which point do you think you will have a decent long-haul connectivity again and, let's say, connectivity that makes your and Lufthansa's hub work again? Then secondly, on financing, you mentioned in the presentation you secured another EUR 350 million after Q1. Was that at similar conditions as the money secured in the first quarter? And do you plan to raise further money over the upcoming months to, let's say, increase your financial buffer even further? And then last but not least, you mentioned the stable rental income that you get. Have you been approached by any trade partners so far with regards to renegotiations? So for example, from duty-free companies or anything like that. So is there any pressure to adjust contract terms maybe? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you for the question.
Starting with the last issues, I would say every day, partners are approaching us with regard to our contracts. But we always say, "Look at our business model. We have a lot of cost items. We have just 10% on the revenue side. So we have no headroom to be flexible." And the answer is Pacta sunt servanda. And at the moment, it works. So clear answer from us with regard to these attempts from partners. The questions with regard to financing. So these EUR 350 million is more or less on the same level. So this is also an expression of our creditworthiness, which we still have in the market. Is it intended to go for additional financings in the next couple of times? Yes. Because of our clear strategy, you have to go for money when you have money. When you don't have money, it's too late.
So that's the reason why we will continuously be on the capital markets to even raise more money. First bunch of questions with regards to network carriers, Lufthansa connectivity. This is very perhaps surprising. If you look now on the flight pattern in Frankfurt, we don't have really passengers just below. We are less than 10,000 passengers per day. But when you look on the flights, we have still international flights. Perhaps no passengers inside or just a reduced number. But we have still flights to North America, to Canada, to the USA. We are flying to China, Japan, Middle East. So we have an interesting to São Paulo. So we have still a lot of flights. So when you look on the one side, on the passenger numbers or the reduction of the passengers on the maximum take-off weight on the movements.
So you have a mismatch now between these. Normally, everything goes more or less parallel or balanced. And now we have minus 95% passengers. Roughly, we have minus 85% movements. And we have minus 75% maximum take-off weight. So this is an expression that a lot of aircraft are still. We have still 200 movements per day. If you compare the European airports, so Paris, London, Heathrow, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt with regards to the number of movements, we are in the moment number one in Europe. So today, we have the highest connectivity in Europe, much more than the other big hubs in Europe, which in so far is good when the ramp-up will start again. Because then it is key to have still a network in place, which is in the moment already given at Frankfurt.
And some days ago, Lufthansa announced the new network or flight schedule post-coronavirus, working the first step up from, I think, 15th or 13th or 15th of May. And then the next step up from June. And there are still a lot of now interesting flights in this new flight schedule. So that you can see that Lufthansa already now tries to prepare the start for the ramp-up. And to prepare the start means you have to have already a network in place. And when you also look now, where is Lufthansa doing their still existing international flights? All of these flights are out of Frankfurt. And if you compare this with our friendly competitor in Munich, you don't see this international traffic. So this is, let me say, the starting position for the recovery at Frankfurt Airport, we think is good.
And Lufthansa now is already doing the first steps to restart again. And remember when I said to secure just some percentages of the old touristic traffic, which you normally see up from July, August. You have a network still in place up from June. Because otherwise, it's too late to have a recovery for parts of the touristic traffic in July and August. So everybody is going in this direction. Could be good. It sounds good. And now we are waiting that the restrictions will be lifted, that you can fly to, I don't know, island of Crete or Corfu or Antalya. We would be happy if you would go or make this decision. And so in favor of the airlines and in favor of the airports.
And maybe just one follow-up on those current intercon flights. Do you have any idea on the passenger load factor of those?
Or is a major component for those flights the belly cargo?
No. Let me say the seat load factor is extremely low. So in other words, you can't make any money with these flights. But we assume that the airlines are still flying. One thing you mentioned, this is cargo in the belly. This could be an argument. But we are convinced that this is not enough to compensate the OpEx to fly these routes. But I think it's relatively simple that these airlines still fly. Singapore Airlines still flies from Frankfurt to Singapore, etc., Air Canada. So if everything starts again, that they are the first in place and being the first movers could be perhaps a good argument later on to gain over proportionately market share in the recovery phase. So seat load factor in the moment, I'm looking at the statistics.
It's about close to 20% is the seat load factor at the moment.
All right. Thank you very much.
20%, of course, you cannot cover your OpEx. That's for sure.
Next question is from the line of Adrian Pehl from Commerzbank. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Good afternoon, Mr. Zieschang and everybody else. A couple of questions looking into the future, starting with what can you do. First one is, what can you do to support your 60% customer, Lufthansa, actually in Frankfurt from a longer-term perspective? How can you help them actually so that your business is also positively affected, at least for the measures that you implement? And the second one is actually market share-wise. I mean, you have been talking about you're stopping the incentive program.
I mean, I can understand pretty well from the design as it is today that it does not make probably that much sense. But on the other hand, there have to be some incentives, I think, to make sure you're gaining market share from that situation at the moment. I can't hardly imagine you're staying passive and just looking and watching the situation. And thirdly, linked a little bit to your question, it's been asked before, but I want to rephrase it also with what can you do actually to improve the attractiveness of the three terminals given likely underutilization, probably not for each of them on an isolated basis, but combined when Terminal 3 is also up and running. Is there any plans that you have in order to boost the attractiveness? And then a question linked to potential write-downs.
As far as I can remember, you already took a write-down on the Xi'an value. And I was wondering if we see the threat of potential write-downs of other participation values as well and vice versa to that. Is there a chance actually that you may write up the value of Xi'an again in the future? And what is the prerequisite for that? Thank you.
First question, support of Lufthansa. I think the best support is to have a well-equipped and proper airport. And I think we have such an airport. And we have the capacity. We always do a lot of things in favor of Lufthansa that the operation is excellent in the moment. There's a very exclusive treatment because big facilities, big infrastructure, etc., everything is fine. And we are doing all this in favor of the customers. So I think this is our support.
But if you mean financial support, of course, I think in a situation where you have a cash burn rate, talking about financial support of customers would be the wrong way to fix your business. So with other words, we offer good services, a good quality, a good infrastructure. And I think this is sufficient for the customers, even for the biggest one. Incentive program. Again, we got a lot of criticism when we started the incentive program, having so many passengers. And on top of this, to install an incentive program. But the reason was to say, "Yeah, we are on a high level and to get more in a fixed-cost model, this brings us additional financial contributions. Therefore, we can share this additional proceeds with the customer." But we are in the deepest recession ever.
Starting from 5% passenger level now to give money to the airlines, this doesn't make any sense. This is really then really a cash burn. Again, if you look on the matrix which we have, the airlines on average pay us roughly between EUR 10 and EUR 11 per passenger. Even if you would give them 10% discount in this moment when everything opens again and the people decide and wish to fly or not to fly, to give EUR 1 per passenger, this is absolutely without any impact on the business. I think the considerations the customers and the airlines in the moment have, they are playing on how to fix and readjust your business model and now to talk about some sense for incentives. This would be the wrong discussion. Perhaps in some years again, but not now.
And again, I mentioned the seat load factor of 20%. So in the moment, everybody is burning money. We are burning money. The airlines are burning money. And then to move incentives from the left to the right side or vice versa, this is really not the right.
Sorry. Maybe I should rephrase it in the sense of it was actually longer-term, i.e., probably in a more or less like a post-corona world or let's say as of 2021 when we have a more decent level of travel. Short-term, you're absolutely right. Makes no sense. I fully agree.
And okay. Then I think this is not a mismatch. And what I said is now relevant for 2021. How the world will look like in 2022, 2023, nobody knows. But again, in the moment, for 2020, we don't pay any incentives because growth is negative.
In 2021, we will not continue with our incentive program. This is in the moment. This is a decision. What will happen in the years later on, we really have to see. It depends from the speed of the recovery. To improve attractiveness, I think the best element or the best lever to improve attractivity is our Terminal 3. In 2024, when T3 is open, I think we have a fantastic state-of-the-art product. The launching customers will be happy to go in. Then, for example, we already received, especially from the Middle East carriers, very positive comments. They are willing to come in to become the launching customers. The reason is that, for example, they are not satisfied with the launch situation in Terminal 2 because we don't have enough space to give them the square meters they need to offer their high-value customers.
And they want to see new launch landscapes in Terminal 3 of thousands of square meters. And we can offer them all these things. And that's the reason why they are happy to move into such a brilliant product. And this is our way to improve attractivity for the customers going into T3. And when you look on Terminal 1, where Lufthansa and the Star Alliance is a main customer, we improve the quality here because then there is more room, more capacity also to grow. And the density or perhaps even the overutilization then of Terminal 1 is over. So this is really a win-win for this one going into Terminal 3, also for these customers staying also in the long run in Terminal 1. And we try to convince our customers by service and quality levels and infrastructure.
I think this is our answer which we will give to the customers. Impairment tests, first question. Of course, we are obliged quarter by quarter to make impairment tests. The auditors are requesting these calculations from us. But when you talk about infrastructure, we have not an impairment test like under other industries where you have a detailed calculation for the first five years and then you are working with some eternity values. In our models, we are really calculating year by year the numbers for the next 30 years, knowing that everything what we assume today into and in the year 2025 up from now is wrong. This is the answer of infrastructure because it's a long-term model.
And on one side, when we have now in the first couple of years a reduced revenue stream, we have answers on the other side like reduction of intended CapEx, also adjustment of OpEx. So we have certain levers to answer the reduced revenue levels and always looking that the impairment tests are still positive. And I can tell you that just in this moment, we did it because we are talking about Q1 numbers. And so impairment tests goes over the lifecycle of an infrastructure asset. And today, I can really see we don't see any threat by impairments. And also with regards to Xi'an in the moment, we don't see anything that there is a need to make a write-off of these assets because we have so many levers which we can use to adjust our business models.
All right. Thank you.
Welcome.
Next question is from the line of Christian Cohrs from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello. Good afternoon. Just two questions left for me. First of all, presumably some airlines will go bust. Also, it's possible that some of your tenants in Frankfurt, the shop owners or the shop operators, will go bust. So, is bad debt actually an issue for you? And have you installed any measures to monitor your trade receivables? That's part number one. Number two, in Q1, you actually did not receive any dividends from your activities abroad. I think last year it was EUR 38 million in the first quarter. For the full year, it was EUR 100 million. So, will you receive any dividends at all from your external activities? Thank you.
First question, of course. In such a situation, there's always the threat that one of your customers will go bust.
This is a normal, let me say, situation. In the moment, we don't have any information about this, but this can happen. On the other side, our exposure is in so far reduced because all the tenants are not just the tenants, but all our customers. They have, let me say, the way of paying the money is on a delayed basis. So our risk with regards to real estate tenants, it's one month. And on the other side, it's just 10 days. So even in this unlikely case or potential case that one is going bust, our risk position is in the case of real estate, 30 days. In all other cases, 10 days. So this is in so far a very limited amount of money. But in the moment, knock on wood, everybody is paying. And we have to see whether this will continue or not. Dividends.
Also during my presentation, let me say the focus, of course, was here at Frankfurt Airport. We also have to secure the liquidity situation of all our airports in the portfolio. And when we talk about the liquidity, you can also see that the liquidity is well allocated everywhere. And we have the clear philosophy that first of all, the assets outside Frankfurt should secure their own financing. So we are not acting like a financial investor with minimized equity and very reduced shareholder loans. So they had relatively a comfortable situation with regards to the equity portion, also a comfortable situation with the current liquidity situation so that we, as of today, even in this relatively long continuation of a very negative traffic scenario, they can survive from a liquidity perspective based on their own means.
But also one additional, let me say, support which we did is saying that in this moment, we do not collect dividends from the subsidiaries not to take out liquidity, which later on then we have to pay back again in form of shareholder loans. So in 2020, you will not see really dividend payments from the subsidiaries to the AG as a package to support them.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you.
Welcome.
Next question is from the line of Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Just some follow-ups. So first, in your opening comments, you said that ethnic travel should recover first ahead of business and leisure. Can you clarify a little bit what do you mean by that? What percentage of your traffic is in that segment?
Does it relate mostly to short-haul European or more long-haul? The second question is on your aviation business. I would be interested to know what percentage of revenue for Frankfurt is actually from intercontinental traffic for aviation? Or perhaps to put it differently, what would be the multiplier of revenue per passenger intercontinental versus Europe to Europe?
Thank you for the questions. Ethnic travel versus touristic travel versus business travel. What do we mean with ethnic travel? We focus or we define this as, first of all, workers, let me say, working in Germany, coming from Romania, Ukraine, Belarus, etc., Baltic countries, etc., in both directions. Also, let me say, traffic generated by visiting relatives. This is a definition of ethnic travel. And this is very robust with regards to, let me say, coronavirus threats, etc.
That's the reason if, for example, you are a craftsman and you earn your money in Germany, you have a strong interest as soon as possible to come back from Romania to Germany to go back to your construction site, for example, like our T3 site. That's the reason also based on our experience from the past that this is a very robust segment of air travel and will be the first one to recover. Tourists, this is everybody going to Greece or Antalya or Spain, etc. Here you can see that the motivation is clear. A little bit is this a hope that now after this shutdown where you are a prisoner at your home, that after two months staying at home and looking Netflix, that now you have the wish to fly perhaps for one week to Antalya, have some fun despite corona.
That's the reason why we think in a second wave this will happen and bring recovery rates. On the business travel and business recovery, we are in so far a little bit reluctant and very conservative because in the moment, you can see you have the dominance of the controllers in the company. And travel expenses are one item which is firstly attacked. And everything is down. And everybody is now identifying that also without any travel actions, you can make your business. And I think this will be transformed, translated, and transferred also in the time after corona so that we think there will be also or could be a sustainable shift and tectonic shift of this traveling behavior of businessmen so that we think, yes, also with regard to this element and item, there will be a recovery, but a very slow recovery.
So first wave, first step, ethnic traffic. Second, touristic travel. Third, business travel. Of course, the ethnic travel is primarily on the continent, so Eastern Europe, southern part of Europe or North Africa, etc., Turkey, but also some ethnic travel patterns to intercontinental destinations. For example, people from Greece visiting their relatives in Canada, flying from Athens to Frankfurt, from Frankfurt to Toronto or to Ontario. With regards to the charges, there's a price differentiation whether you fly intercontinental or transfer. And here we collect the money based on the departing passengers. So the incoming passengers doesn't pay anything. Therefore, the departing ones pay twice. And the amount for intercontinental or the fees for intercontinental passengers departing is 24 EUR. For continental passengers, it is 18 EUR. And transfer traffic is, we can say, the cheapest traffic with 12 EUR.
So yeah, again, and let me say most of the ethnic travelers are flying on continental routes.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Next question comes from Andrew Lobbenberg from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Very quickly, as Lufthansa looks to rebuild its flying and comes to a target that is materially smaller than it was, at least initially, how do you convince them to continue to add back in Frankfurt disproportionately rather than your friends down in Munich? Because we're going to be dividing up a smaller pie in terms of their fleet. That'll do.
Frankly spoken, we cannot convince Lufthansa. I think they have a plan. We hope this plan is more or less in favor of us. But if they have a plan, they have a plan. So this is an independent company. And I think they know what they are doing.
I think the information is in the market, the reduction of the fleet of 100 aircraft. Of course, we hope that this was overproportionately in favor of Frankfurt. A little bit, let me say, a strong signal is that in the moment, they are operating just out of Frankfurt with regards to intercontinental flights, not from other hubs which they have in their portfolio. I think this is a strong argument. Also, they know what they do. But we cannot influence Lufthansa. Even if you mention incentive programs, if you give them EUR 1 or not per additional passenger, I think this is not of course, everybody would take this as an add-on. But with this, you cannot influence a decision to fly or not to fly.
Okay. Thanks.
We have a follow-up question from the line of Arthur Truslove from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi. This is just one follow-up from me. I just wondered whether you could talk in a little bit more detail about your sort of working assumptions in respect of how continental and intercontinental traffic might come back. I mean, obviously, you said you expect continental to come back earlier. But for example, towards the end of the third quarter, what sort of % of the prior year figures for airline capacity are you currently expecting to see? Thank you.
Again, I think this is first of all, we have to say we cannot influence traffic. So first of all, prerequisite for recovery is that all the restrictions will be lifted. With given restrictions, you cannot fly. And you cannot influence something or you cannot overcome these restrictions. The first thing, they must be lifted. And then we have to see how the natural demand will work.
I think, of course, there will be a recovery, but from which continent or to which continent you will see, let me say, the first wave or the first move, I don't know. I'm personally convinced, as I mentioned, we will see the first reaction with regards to European ethnic or based on ethnic travel, a clear focus on European continental flights, and I think there will be a first reaction after abolishing all these restrictions that the North and Middle European people wanted to spend, despite corona, some days or weeks in some southern countries, and so we will see some traffic going to Greece, Antalya, southern part of Italy, etc., or Spain, but how much this will be, really, I don't know. Nobody knows this. This is absolutely a crystal ball or black box.
Thanks.
Another question from the line of Charles Maynadier from Kempen & Co. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Just a very small one on the dividend for 2020, and so based on your policy of payout on earnings, could we still expect you to pay anything this year knowing that you expect negative EPS?
I think, let me say, with regards to the dividend for 2019, we said there's nothing. What we are going to pay in 2021 for 2020, don't ask me now. It depends from the recovery, but frankly spoken, having in mind that the recovery can be very slow, I would say the probability that there will be no dividend is relatively high, to bring it on the point.
Okay. Thanks, and then maybe more generally in the medium term and knowing that leverage.
In the medium term, now it's our strong interest to come back, to recover, to have strong financial figures again, again, high EBITDA numbers and positive net income.
This is what we do all to come back, to readjust our business, to fix our business model even on a lower number of passengers. And also having in mind that we want to pay dividends again. But now we are in a brutal cash burn phase. And I think this was clearly that when we saw that coronavirus led to minus 90%-95% passenger reduction, which some weeks before we thought it's absolutely impossible, that then overnight we said we are not going to spend EUR 185 million dividends and on the other side going to the capital markets, raising new money to finance the cash burn. I think this was clear that we went into this direction. And now we have really to see what will be the free cash flow in 2021 and also the level of net income.
And then we have to see whether we pay or pay not and what is also our indebtedness at that point of time and the financial covenants or the financial indicators. But again, I would say as of today, all what we know now from a potential recovery, the probability for paying dividend is very low in 2021 for 2020.
Yeah. That's clear. Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back to Christoph Nanke for closing comments.
Please go ahead. Okay. So thank you all for participating. If you have any further questions later on the next days, please give us a call. For the moment, stay healthy and see you soon, hopefully. Thank you. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Good.