Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the conference call of Fraport AG, Full Year 2023 and Annual Report. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press Star, followed by 1 on your touchtone telephone. Please press the Star key, followed by Zero for operator assistance. May I now hand the call over to your host for today, Christoph Nanke, SVP, Head of Finance and IR.
Thank you, Doran, and a warm welcome also from my side. I think we have some topics to talk about and explain today. So, therefore, I'm very happy to have our CEO, Stefan Schulte, and our CFO, Matthias Zieschang, at the table, and I hand the floor to Stefan to start the presentation.
Christoph, thanks very much, and a warm welcome also from my side. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. We've had a busy morning, so let's go straight into the presentation. My first slide today provides you an overview on our latest developments. Frankfurt Airport, our main site, recorded just under 60 million passengers last year. This was right at the midpoint of our full year guidance, which was a traffic recovery of 80%-90%. In fact, the second half of the year showed an even more dynamic development at about 88% of 2019, or 91% for the fourth quarter on a standalone basis. On stronger traffic recovery, we saw in our international portfolio, in total, the airports outside of Frankfurt reached 98% of the passenger number handled 2019.
Correspondingly, our international portfolio achieved our midterm guidance of a full traffic recovery, which we provided you 2 and a half years ago. Benchmarking our results against expectations also shows very good progress regarding our operating results. Our group EBITDA reached more than EUR 1.2 billion and therefore recorded an all-time high and outperformed our midterm expectations. In addition to the financial progress, we continued our way to decarbonize the group. During the past year, we amended our so-called Master Plan Decarbonization to include our majority-owned airports. The updated Master Plan describes a way on how to decarbonize the individual airports in order to achieve a CO2-free Scope 1 and 2 by fiscal year 2045. Besides our Master Plan Decarbonization, we also updated our group's strategy, Fraport 2030, to include new midterm targets.
The new strategy comes along with an updated corporate purpose and a new claim, connecting the world with tomorrow, but more on this topic later in my presentation. Moving on to our financial highlights of the past year on slide 4. Despite the fact that Frankfurt just recovered to 84% of the 2019 traffic, revenues increased on a group-wide to just under EUR 3.5 billion. At Frankfurt Airport, in particular, the real estate and parking divisions, as well as the security business, contributed to the revenue increase. Internationally, we recorded more than EUR 210 million higher revenues just from our Fraport Greece subsidiary, a strong increase of our very important international operation, but also Fraport Brazil and USA showed higher revenues. In terms of our group EBITDA, Fraport Greece also helped us to exceed the pre-COVID level.
At EUR 271 million, our Greek subsidiary contributed EUR 100 million more EBITDA than 2019. At the Frankfurt site, especially the aviation segment exceeded the 2019 benchmark year. Bottom line, our group result exceeded the upper end of the guidance for 2023, but remained some EUR 20 million below 2019. Key drivers for the better performance in our group result were higher interest received in our financial asset management and the development in Antalya. At EUR 430 million, this was our third highest result in our group history. Looking at the traffic performance of last year on slide 5, as mentioned before, Frankfurt Airport showed a year-over-year recovery to just under 60 million passengers, or an increase of 21% against 2022.
While full year traffic thus recovered to 84% of 2019, the second half of 2023, and Q4 in particular, a better traffic development at about 91%. Reason for the improved Q4 development was mainly the gradual market opening of China. In our international portfolio, our Greek airports showed again the strongest traffic momentum. At 34 million passengers, Fraport Greece was 12% above the 2019 benchmark year and reached the highest traffic result in its history. Besides Fraport Greece, also Antalya exceeded the 2019 year and recorded just under 36 million passengers. The development in Antalya is even more remarkable when considering that about 4 million passengers from Russia are still missing compared to 2019.
In addition to Fraport Greece and Antalya, Lima Airport is also heading in the right direction, while Lima, on a full-year basis, was still 10% below 2019. November, December, and the first 2 months of this year recovered to about 100%. Correspondingly, our outlook for this year indicates a full traffic recovery in Peru. Moving on to our business update on slide number 6, the upcoming summer flight schedule in Frankfurt will start in 2 weeks from now. Here, scheduled seat capacities are expected to reach just under 90% of the 2019 summer season, while the second quarter will still be somewhat below this figure, Q3 is expected to be at about 90%.
From a regional perspective, we expect North America, Central America, and Southeast Europe to exceed the 2019 benchmark year, and opposite, especially domestic traffic and Eastern Europe, due to the war in Ukraine, are expected to remain clearly below 2019. Regarding China, we expect summer capacities to come back to 70%-80%. Here, Beijing and Shanghai will be close to 100%, while secondary cities like Shenyang or Hangzhou are still missing. To long-term handle the expected traffic growth at Frankfurt Airport, we also see good progress in our Terminal 3 investments this year. The first milestone we already achieved in February, the new parking halls of Terminal 3 partly opened with 2,000 slots. Despite the distance to Terminal 1 and 2, the new offering is very well taken up by the market.
At the beginning of March, all parking lots were pre-booked, and the new parking house was completely sold out. Visible progress, we will also see with our ESG activities in Frankfurt, for example, we will complete the construction of our new photovoltaic plant this year. The photovoltaic plant will provide sufficient energy to run, among others, our entire electric car fleet and our airport hospital in Frankfurt. A very good step ahead with the important topic, CO2. Besides the progress in Frankfurt, we also set a date for the terminal opening at Lima Airport. On December 18th, we will make the new terminal available after a construction time of just 3 years. This is more than remarkable and a big thank you to the involved parties, including the local authorities. 3 years will also be the construction time of the terminal extension in Antalya.
Here, we have meanwhile completed more than 70% of the entire project, while the asset areas are almost done, too. Ladies and gentlemen, we are seeing good progress at our main sites. After 3 years of COVID-19, we can finally say the pandemic is more or less over. Fraport is emerging as a different, yet, in our opinion, a stronger company. We have taken clear steps to change the company and shape the corporate culture. For their dedicated work in the past years, we have to especially thank our employees at all our airports. So a big thank you on that side. To set ourselves new goals, we updated our new strategy. I'm on slide 7, Fraport 2030. It's the headline of our new strategy, which also provides new targets for fiscal year 2030. To be clear, we are just talking about 6 years to go.
You'll find these targets on the right-hand side of slide number 7. By 2030, we want to fascinate our customers with our airports, regardless of whether they are passengers, airlines, whether it's cargo or other business partners. Financially, we want to achieve an operating result, so an EBITDA, of EUR 2 billion, and we want to generate a free cash flow of EUR 1 billion. This will leave us sufficient headroom to reduce leverage, to raise the dividend, but also to pursue new growth projects. In order to achieve these projects, we define 3 main strategic priorities: growth and sustainability, efficiency and innovation, and to be a top employee. These priorities you find, among others, the operational growth at our group airports, the completion of our extensive growth programs, but also ESG-related priorities, whether they are environmentally or socially linked.
Our most important level to tackle these priorities is cooperation. This includes cooperation, especially within the Fraport Group, so across countries and divisions, but also outside the group. Being an airport operator, we know there's no takeoff and landing without cooperation. We also know that the most difficult thing to change the DNA, but it's important. It's really important for the future, and we are really on track there already. We started with first projects on that side, for example, with the full digitalization of our HR processes. So I'm really excited to see the progress in the future and how we'll further change the company over the next years. Moving on to our near-term outlook, I'm on slide 8. For Frankfurt Airport, we again provided you a comparably broad guidance range of 61-65 million passengers.
While the current forward capacity indicates about 63 million passengers, further progress of the seat load can lead to upper end of our guidance. Simultaneously, further strikes or aircraft availability restrictions, that's the most difficult thing to predict these days, can't be ruled out. This may lead to the lower corridor. So from today's point of view, we are optimistic to be somewhere in the middle range, but we'll have to see. Equally, on the level of EBITDA, here, the upper end is EUR 1.36 billion, while the lower end is EUR 1.26 billion, and the midpoint is slightly above EUR 1.3 billion. And you know Matthias, he likes always to be on the upper end of a guidance, so that's also a clear message.
As a consequence, the group net result can range between EUR 435 million and EUR 530 million. Assuming continuous negative free cash flow, as Matthias will discuss in a minute, our net debt to EBITDA key leverage ratio is expected to remain broadly unchanged through the year-end 2023. Bearing the negative free cash flow of 2024 and the elevated net debt in mind, we currently do not foresee a dividend distribution for fiscal year 2024 at this point in time. Having said this, thank you very much, and I would like now Matthias to hand it over for the financials.
Yeah. Thank you, Stefan, and also from my side. Let me start my presentation today with our cash flow and indebtedness situation on slide 10. Overall, the operating cash flow and capital expenditure developed in line with our expectations. Reflecting the positive traffic and financial result developments, the operating cash flow was clearly up compared to the previous year. At EUR 863 million, the operating cash flow reached about 90% of the 2019 level and was clearly sufficient to cover the maintenance CapEx on a group-wide basis of about EUR 360 million. Therefore, without considering the expansion CapEx, we would have generated a solid cash flow surplus of about EUR 400 million. Due to the continued expansion investments in Frankfurt and Lima, our free cash flow was negative at -EUR 656 million.
Correspondingly, our group net debt increased to EUR 7.7 billion at the end of last year. Despite the higher net debt, our net debt to EBITDA key leverage ratio improved, thanks to the operational growth, from 6.9 x to 6.4 x. Moving on to our updated repayment profile at the end of fiscal year 2023. I'm now on slide 11. Despite the negative free cash flow, our liquidity position remained at the high level of more than EUR 4 billion, respectively, EUR 5 billion, including the unused project finance and committed credit lines. Gross debt, on the other side, grew to slightly more than EUR 11.7 billion. The increase in gross debt also reflects the project finance at Lima Airport, where we have meanwhile made use of more than EUR 650 million.
The unused project finance in Lima still amounts to EUR 470 million. As a result of the ongoing refinance and Lima drawdowns, our average cost of debt increased slightly to 2.9% at the end of 2023. On the other side, our available funds also reflected an increased profitability. While we started 2023 with an average yield of about 0.8%, we are now standing at an average yield of about 2.7% on our liquidity. Looking ahead, we expect the yield to steadily increase to about 3% by end of H1, which will help us to further reduce our cost of carry. Moving on to our segment development, starting with aviation on slide 12.
While we just handled 84% of our pre-COVID passenger number, the aviation charges reached the pre-COVID level at about EUR 814 million. Here, the fee increases, which we implemented in the meantime, became visible, so 4.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023. In addition, the segment EBITDA reflected the restructuring measures which we carried out during the pandemic. When adjusting for the higher security revenues, which basically come without a margin, our underlying OpEx, so excluding for security OpEx, was some EUR 30 million below the level of 2019. The decrease in underlying OpEx led ceteris paribus to an EBITDA improvement of more than EUR 30 million. At EUR 308 million, EBITDA reached an all-time high and was well in line with our guidance.
For fiscal year 2024, we expect a further improvement in revenues, EBITDA, and margin due to the expected traffic growth and the 9.5% price increase, which we enforced on January 1. Coming to our retail and real estate segment on slide 13. Segment revenues almost reached the pre-pandemic level of EUR 508 million, despite handling 11 million passengers less. The revenue recovery was once again driven by the real estate and parking divisions, which outperformed the 2019 benchmark year. Regarding our retail activities, the picture remains mixed. While shopping and services revenues were higher than 2019 on a per passenger basis, advertising revenues continued to underperform the 2019 level. We also show the relevant figures on slide 14.
Regarding advertisement, despite a negative full year performance, we are encouraged by the most recent trend. Q4 showed a clear improvement on a per passenger basis compared to the previous quarters. With the increasing share of Far East passengers, but also the European Football Championship in Germany this year, we are confident to see further progress in advertisement and that the division will catch up again. Simultaneously, we expect the improved passenger mix to have a positive impact on our overall retail revenues per passenger key figure in 2024. Regarding the segment EBITDA, we had been still confronted with headwinds from elevated cost items, such as energy costs, compared to 2019. Consequently, EBITDA was mildly down compared to 2019.
For the fiscal year 2024, we, however, expect an outperformance versus 2019 due to the expected passenger growth and continued favorable conditions in real estate as well as parking. Turning the page to our ground handling segment on slide number 15. Following the positive development in the third quarter, the ground handling segment turned negative again in the fourth quarter. While costs were slightly higher in Q4 when compared to Q3, the lower traffic volumes led to a revenue decline. Correspondingly, EBITDA was negative at EUR -10 million in the fourth quarter and on a full year basis. Looking ahead, we are relatively confident to achieve an EBITDA break even this year, so in 2024. The turnaround will be driven by higher charges for our usage of the central infrastructure, higher prices in ground services, and the expected traffic recovery.
Moving on to our final segment, international activities and services, on slide number 16. As you can see on the slide, our international segment continued its outperformance against 2019. Revenues, EBITDA and EBIT stood well above the pre-crisis levels. Here, especially Fraport Greece performed strongly compared to 2019. While revenues, excluding for IFRIC 12, grew by some EUR 212 million in Greece, EBITDA was up by more than EUR 100 million. Besides Fraport Greece, also Fraport Brazil and Fraport US showed an improving earnings momentum, with Fraport US being positively impacted by the compensation for the early termination of the Pittsburgh lease agreement. At an EBITDA of EUR 560 million, our international activity segment was once again the biggest single segment on a group-wide basis, with an EBITDA share of about 47%.
For the year ahead, you will have also seen this in our annual report. We agreed on another state settlement agreement in Greece. The agreement will lead to an extra income of roughly EUR 28 million and will support the segment development in 2024. Based on this, we expect the EBITDA in 2024 to remain on the high level of 2023, or to rise slightly above. Coming now to my final slide for today, our free cash flow and net debt outlook for 2024. As a starting point to reconcile the net debt development in 2024, we take our EBITDA guidance as a proxy for our operating cash flow, which ranges from EUR 1.26 billion to EUR 1.36 billion.
From this basis, we deduct the CapEx amount of roughly EUR 1.4-EUR 1.5 billion. Please note here that this year will mark the final year of the elevated CapEx levels in Frankfurt and Lima, and we expect a clear reduction of the CapEx next year. Following the CapEx, we subtract another EUR 200 million for fixed concession payments, borrowing costs, and IFRS 16.
... as well as around EUR 250 million for net debt interest and taxes. Adding all the components together, this will mean a negative free cash flow of around EUR 490 million-EUR 690 million this year, before we will reach break even next year, so in 2025. As a result of the free cash flow outlook, we expect our group net debt to grow to around EUR 8.2 billion-EUR 8.4 billion this year. Having said this, ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to thank you for your attention, and we are now looking forward to your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by 1 on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by 2. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by 1 at this time. 1 moment, please, for the first question. The first question comes from the line of Ruxandra Haradau-Doser with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. First, impressive 2030 target. The EBITDA guidance this year is up to 200% higher than when Dr. Schulte joined the executive board, almost up to 150% higher than when Dr. Zieschang joined Fraport. You guide another improvement of 50% from this year level over the next 6 years. It's really a very impressive performance, and congratulations for this. Could you please help us with an interim EBITDA target, maybe in 2026 or 2027? Second, I understand that depreciation has increased because of future renovation of Terminal 2. Do you have already details how this terminal will be used going forward? Will it, will, will it be used by Lufthansa or by the partners of Lufthansa?
The CapEx for T2 is still within the limits of your future maintenance CapEx, and what will be the distribution of the CapEx between regulated and non-regulated activities? Third, what traffic performance in Greece have you considered in your group guidance this year, and what seat capacity growth is the current flight schedule indicating this summer? And the final question for Dr. Schulte, please. We are now a few months ahead of the introduction of the EU requirements with respect to sustainable aviation fuel. How are your EU airports prepared for this, and how is the sector in general prepared for SAF? I understand that only 1% of global airports are currently offering SAF, so why is the number so low? And what needs to happen for airports to engage more in providing SAF and investing in the required infrastructure? Thank you very much.
Thanks very much for your questions. So may I start, I start with your final question, sustainable sector, sustainable fuels. Yes, we have to, we have the first quotas from 2025 onwards. I think it's 2%, if I'm correctly informed. And we always have been in favor of those quotas, that we are obliged as an industry in total to go up there and over the time, that we reach an amount and then quotas, which are meaningful, and that the industry is getting sustainable. So that's very positive. You know, that the obligation is with the big refineries, the Shells, Totals, and so on of this world. They have to produce this, and it's a complicated technical procedure, how to produce SAF.
We in Germany say it's a coupled production, on a biogenic base, but we will see what the different suppliers are at the end doing. We know that a lot of airlines are contracting SAF arrangements in different parts of the world. So from that point of view, that's okay. And I'm sure that all airlines will try to fulfill the quotas they have to fulfill. So the percentages, which are rising up to 6% in the year 2030. From the infrastructure on the airports, that's not a topic for us, because it's not necessary by regulation that SAF has to be provided exactly on the same concept by the airport; it's the same consumption of the airline.
The airline has to to guarantee that they, for their flights, they are doing worldwide or under the regime of the the European Commission, that they are doing, that they are fulfilling the quotas, the obligations, but it's not important that they do it airport by airport exactly. Here in Frankfurt, we are prepared. It's not a problem. On other airports, if we're taking an island airport, it's probably more difficult, but it's not necessary. This will change over the time. It's a question over the time, after the year 2030... then you have to be more airport per airport, but that's still a discussion with the European Commission. So at the moment, we don't have any restrictions there, and it's not an obligation with the airport.
The obligation is with Greece and the airlines, but not with the airports. On traffic performance, regarding Greece, how is the booking situation? What we see as a pre-booking, that's very positive. Also, the first 2 months have been quite positive on that side. But, to be quite honest, my colleagues here in Greece, they are a little bit more conservative after the strong growth last year. They are more believing in a smaller growth this year. I'm a little bit more optimistic on that side. So let's see, it will be in between 3%-8%, something like this. But it depends on the market, it depends on the availability of hotels.
It depends a little bit also on the competition with other tourist destinations like Antalya, for example, because what we see from the market side is that the demand is very, very high and the demand is there. It's more the question: What are the passenger flows, and what direction are they finally going? And there, I can just say, Greece is very optimistic. So our expectations for Greece in this year are, if you take the numbers which Matthias just presented, not so high. They are slightly lower for Greece, and hopefully, they will outperform us at the end. Terminal 2, just as a final quality answer, because the numbers are with Matthias, he's much more professional on that side than I.
With Terminal 3, we get the big advantage that we get first-time free capacity or additional capacity, so on, on terminal infrastructure. So we can move the Terminal 2 airlines, and maybe the 1 or the other from Terminal 1 to Terminal 3. But Terminal 1 will stay very much fully loaded. So with Star Alliance and Lufthansa, they have chances after renovation of Terminal 2, after the technical renovation, especially, but also some functional things to provide the Terminal 2 with a good hub product with seamless traveling in between Schengen and non-Schengen, and so on. Lufthansa and Star Alliance will move into the Terminal 2 because they have big advantages on that side.
They can use it on the Schengen side, they can use it on the non-Schengen side, and we had a lot of good discussions with them. So that's absolutely clear. They are happy that they have the chance over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years to grow in Frankfurt, and to have terminal infrastructure to grow there. Last answer from my side, interims on EBITDA target, we don't publish. Of course, we are following on detail the different projects on that side and the different targets we have internally. And if we would run out of that, we would, of course, inform you. But otherwise, from today's point of view, yes, we are quite optimistic, and quite confident that we will achieve those targets, as we mentioned.
It's for sure much easier on the free cash flow side than on the EBITDA side, but also on the EBITDA side, if you know the potential we have on the international portfolio, but also with the normal growth on Frankfurt, that won't work. Matthias?
Yeah, in addition to this, again, there's no intermediate target for the EBITDA, but looking forward, we have the target in 2030, EUR 2 billion. We had EUR 1.2 billion in 2023. There was a difference of EUR 800 million in 7 years, so it's relatively simple to make a rough calculation, what it could be, year by year as an increase, regarding the EBITDA, and we are not targeting for a, for a curve. So regarding, CapEx, in Terminal 2, first of all, how will be the phase in 2027 after the opening, in 2026 of Terminal 3? We are going to, to close, Terminal 2 for a period of 3 years. In this period, we are going into the so-called cores of the terminal.
In these, I think, 16 cores, all the technology is embedded and included, and everything has to be renewed. So that's the reason why we are going to close this infrastructure. Otherwise, there would be a lot of problem to do this under the rolling wheel, so to say. So there's a clear focus in these 3 years, but the whole concept of refurbishing the terminal is in a period of up to 10 years. So the amount which we are going to invest, and this is about EUR 700 million for the pure maintenance plus X, and this is a 3-digit amount for the functional other things, which Stefan mentioned. This will be invested over a period of 10 years, of course, with more load in the years 2027-2030.
This, everything of this is embedded in our maintenance CapEx program for the next couple of years. So far, the answer to your questions.
Thank you very much. Thanks.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Graham Hunt with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Got 2 questions, please. First 1 on pricing. What are your expectations for regulated pricing in 2025? Have you had any preliminary ...
... discussions on that with the airlines, CPI, obviously in a lot lower place today than it was a year ago. Is that a reasonable proxy for the step down in pricing that we could expect for next year? And then second question on retail. I'm just trying to understand what a realistic outlook is for 2024 there, with spend per pax down year-over-year, despite higher percentage of those international travelers, which tend to spend a bit more. And this trend seems pretty much, pretty at odds with what your peers are seeing in the space. So just want to get some color on what's really going on here and what your expectations are for 2024. Thank you.
I can start on fees. It's very early in the year, so we haven't had discussions with the airports. The consultation has not happened up to now. It will start the next day, so the next week. You are absolutely right that CPI these days is not a good indicator, and it's not reasonable. It's not my point that it's a good indicator or not a good indicator. It's not reasonable. If you see what happened on the tariff increase or the staff cost increases, if you see what happened on the material costs, then it's absolutely clear that we cannot go for an increase of 2% or 3% for the next year. That's absolutely not reasonable.
So we need a higher increase, and we see also from other airports in Germany, but also in Europe, there's the same situation because we have a very big staff amounts in the lower segment of the salary ranges, where you see over proportional high staff cost increases these days, which somewhere have to be financed. That's the main topic on that side, why we have to go for a higher increase, but it's too early to give you any indication there are any number on that side. But it's clear that the CPI is not possible. Retail?
Yeah, and regarding, in addition to this, retail, so we are relatively positive regarding the year 2024. What are the reasons? First of all, some underlying facts and figures. In 2019, 3% of our passengers have been Chinese passengers, and these 3% passengers, they generated 15% of our retail revenue, so 5 x above average. And when you look in the past, in past means in 2023, we had between 40, just 40%-50% of the former Chinese passengers, because we started with about 20% Chinese in the beginning of the year 2023, then between 40%-50% in the summer, and we ended up at about 70% in Q4 2023.
Now, looking into the year 2024, we assume that we will see 70%-80% of the former Chinese passengers back. So this number, which is twice as much as this number of Chinese, which we welcomed in 2023, must just double the income from the Chinese. And again, remember that is still 5 x of the average. So this increase of Chinese is good for, I would say, about EUR 15 million just coming from the Chinese. So this is a big positive impact in 2024. Another positive momentum is advertisement, media. So when you look on the Q4 numbers, you see already a spend per pax of 73 cents, which is nearly on the level of 2029.
Now we have a recovery of big companies now paying money for media, for advertisement, like auditing companies, like Chinese automotive companies. We have the European soccer champion in Germany. This is also good for additional money on the advertisement sector. This combination of still strong F&B expenses, good momentum regarding media, plus the Chinese impact on the retail side, plus a new big food store, which will be opened in Terminal 1B, Concourse B. All these elements give us the confidence that the spend per pax in retail in 2024, which will be clearly better than in 2023. So we have a double effect. We are benefiting from the increased number of passengers, which we expect in 2024, plus these mentioned structural drivers, which are running in favor of us.
So far.
Can I just-?
Yeah.
Can I, can I just come back very quickly on that? I mean, in Q3 and Q4, your spend per pax was down year-over-year, despite those higher percentages of Chinese travelers that you called out. So should I interpret that as the core traveler is actually deteriorating more?
Yeah, if you look, and I'm now on slide number 14 in the presentation, you are—I think you're, you're focusing and looking on, on Q4. So first of all, in Q4, the spend per pax in 2023 was at EUR 4.08, which was clearly above 2019. But of course, it was less than the year before, where we had EUR 4.23. But in this year-
... there was so far a special effect because we are in 2022, we are benefiting from the so-called MAG, from this minimum annual guarantee. And these payments for locking in these MAG have been paid at the end of the year. So this was, so to say, positively spoiled by the MAG, which was working in 2022. In 2023, when the passenger numbers went up, there was no further MAG payment from the tenants. And that's the reason why we have this overshooting in Q4 2022. So you have to look on the 4.08 EUR in Q4 2023, versus the 3.76 EUR in 2019. This is a 10% increase compared to 2019, and this defines and shows the momentum in Q4.
This you have now to continue for the full year 2024, again, based on the high recovery of Chinese, which is already there, because we had already in Q4, about 70% of the former Chinese passenger numbers. This will, of course, continue, perhaps even can go up to 80%, plus again, an increase in advertisement. For example, we have a new contract with a big Chinese bank on the bridges at the piers. There are a lot of elements which give us the confidence that the retail spend per pax in 2024 will be clearly above 2023.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Carlos Caburrasi Ortega with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Hi, hello, and thank you for the presentation, and taking my questions. I have 3. The first 1 is on the traffic outlook. I recall that during the 9-month presentation, you implicitly guided for well above 65 million passengers in 2024, when mentioning the net tariff increase of 5%-6%. And considering that February's strikes affected 225,000 passengers, the total impact on an annual basis would be around 2.5 million passengers. Therefore, why is the passenger range so wide to the negative? And what are the moving parts impacting your traffic expectations? Then the second 1 is on the dividend side. You have reiterated that there will be no dividends in 2024, and we will have to wait for 2025. And then I will ask you if you could comment on your expectation for that dividend.
Would it be in line with the pre-pandemic 2 EUR per share? And the last 1 is for the long-term view for 2030. Considering that guidance in terms of EBITDA and free cash flow, could you also share with us your view on the allowed return, and when would you expect to earn it? Thank you.
Let me start, thanks very much, with this traffic outlook. Yes, I don't know, remember exactly whether we indicated above 65 million, but we indicated for sure that you're absolutely right, a higher traffic outlook for this year, in September, or in the beginning of November. So it was a Q3 numbers, last year. What is the reason? What happened, in the meanwhile, on the 1 side, the airlines, especially our main carrier, got aware on the topic with the A320, turbines, and how much this affects this operation, how many aircraft have to go out over the year, for 3 months, for 6 months, for 9 months, to get the Pratt & Whitney topic done. That's the 1 thing.
The other thing is that, to be quite clear, Boeing has much more problems and challenges than everybody expected, which means that aircraft are not coming or new aircraft are coming late. But it's not just on new aircraft, it's also on spare parts. So a lot of topics on that side, where the value chain, especially on Boeing, but probably not exclusively on Boeing, is really a topic, which led to reductions on the summer flight plan over the recent months. So that's the reason we are now more on the plus 5%, or in the range in between 61-65 million passengers.
The strike effects you mentioned, we lost up to now, 500,000 passengers to date, so hopefully there are no further strikes, but up to now, it was 500,000. The dividends, there haven't been any discussion on at the moment, but it will depend on the question of how the outlook at that time is. So our confidence and we are on the growth rates of the business, for the next years, and how clear the way forward is. We are confident on that side, especially also on the international side. On Frankfurt, I would expect that, traffic growth is less than internationally, not just because Frankfurt, because of Germany. So I would calculate with the growth 2%-3% maximum, not higher on average.
But the discussion hasn't happened up to now. So, I can't give you an indication, but whether we start immediately in first year directly with a dividend of EUR 2, it's at least a question mark, but more I can't say at the moment. There's no positioning on that.
Yeah, and regarding your, your third question, it was a bunch of questions. First of all, allowed return. So in our guidance for 2030, of course, we are focusing on the assumed WACC at that point of time. It's very difficult, but there's a normal, let me say, level of how this WACC could be, should be at that point of time. On the other side, the second relevant criteria, of course, is the regulated asset base. It is much more easier to define the RAB in the coming years because this is based on our scheduled CapEx plan. And in the moment, you know, in 2020, allowed return on the RAB was 3.3% in aviation.
So there's a lot of headroom now for EBITDA as well as EBIT increase in the next couple of years. And let me say, we have all this on our radar screen, and so that we are able also to deliver the EUR 2 billion EBITDA as well as the EUR 1 billion free cash flow in 2030. So we are, of course, we are now ramping up with the return. We cannot make an excess return. This is also clear, but now we are ramping up to more or less to the ceiling, and then we are running along this ceiling till 2030.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Cristian Nedelcu with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first 1 on CapEx. I think your CapEx in 2023 came out a bit, a bit higher than initially expected, and also your FY 2024 guidance has seen a EUR 100 million higher CapEx. Could you elaborate a little bit what is behind this, and how should we think about it? Is this CapEx pull forward? And if that is the case, should an FY 2025 show you a, I don't know, EUR 200 million, EUR 300 million cash positive rather than a break even, break-even free cash flow? So I guess any comments you can make here also on CapEx 2025 and 2026 would help.
Secondly, on the Frankfurt OpEx, please correct me if I'm wrong, but on my calculations, if I exclude the security OpEx, I calculate that in Frankfurt, your OpEx was EUR 40 million above 2019 levels in 2023. And I believe, go back, sort of around H1 results, you are talking potentially about a target of EUR 0-EUR 30 million lower OpEx. So I guess the question is, what's the price to the upside on the OpEx side? And more importantly, looking at 2024, how should OpEx in Frankfurt develop year-over-year? I guess the last 1 on international EBITDA is very helpful to present as the 1-offs that help the results.
I guess if we strip out all these 1-offs in, in Greece, U.S., and Brazil, can you talk a little bit what, what is driving the EBITDA growth in, in 2024 year-over-year? How much is coming from Greece versus Lima versus others? Thank you very much.
Yeah, I start with the CapEx question. So first of all, your doubts about the CapEx level of 2023, we interpret this as a good signal. Why? Because we are running exactly on the time schedule, which we have planned. So it's a good expression that we are going for success, time-wise and regarding the budget. So, starting with Lima, you heard in the morning that there was a clear signal that on the 18th of December, we are going to inaugurate the new midfield terminal. This is earlier than it was scheduled before. So we are before the time, and as an expression of this, already, again, in 2024, we will spend the full budget for Lima, because otherwise we cannot open Lima in December this year.
In other words, there will be another high CapEx amount for Lima in 2024, and the same applies for Terminal 3. We spend about EUR 600 million in 2023, and you will see more or less the same amount in 2024. Why? Because we are absolutely on time to be ready with the construction in the middle of 2025, more or less, and to open this terminal in 2026. You will see another CapEx high in 2024, up to EUR 1.5 billion, but therefore, the first significant reduction of CapEx in the year 2025. And that's the reason why we gave the guidance for another about EUR 600 million-EUR 700 million indebtedness increase in this year. Because on 1 side, you will see a higher EBITDA.
On the other side, you will see perhaps even a little bit higher CapEx in this year. This is more or less a wash, so that the net indebtedness increase will be the same like in 2023. But again, a clear confirmation that we are going to achieve free cash flow break-even in 2025 and clear positive free cash flow generation in 2026. Why break even in 2025 and not a surplus? Because we still spend a lot of money for Terminal 3 and also some remaining expenses for Lima on a much lower level. But there's still CapEx, and that's the reason why there's break even and not a positive generation in 2025, but then positive in 2026.
OpEx will be driven in 2024 by wage increases based on the actual tariff agreements. So, as a rough calculation, the wage effect for the 3 segments in Frankfurt is a little bit above 9%. This is very high, but on the other side, therefore, we have this 9.5% tariff increase, so it's an equivalent of the wage inflation, which we see in 2024. And this is explaining the OpEx increase. So in absolute numbers, you can expect a personnel cost increase of about EUR 100 million in 2024 for the 3 segments compared to 2023. Regarding EBITDA contribution of the international segment, as you mentioned, we have some positive special effects in 2023.
This was COVID compensation in Greece about EUR 30 million. This will happen again in 2024. So this is more or less the same, let me say, compensation effect, but not any longer in Brazil. So there we have a gap of EUR 20 million in Brazil in this year, as well as EUR 10 million, which we received for the Pittsburgh deal in 2023. So in other words, we expect based on positive growth expectations in this year, positive compensation of these extraordinary effects in 2023, as well as an upside. And that's the reason why our guidance is the same level as 2023 or even a little bit more, depending on the final passenger growth outside Frankfurt. And, of course, main drivers Greece.
In Greece, we are again, we will receive the same COVID compensation on yearly the same, EUR 28 million in 2024, compared to the little bit more than EUR 30 million in 2023. Plus again a good single-digit passenger growth. In Lima, there is a relatively strong recovery, which we expect in 2024. In Bulgaria, we have a good fee increase, plus also some passenger growth. The same applies for Slovenia. So that all in all, we are very happy with the growth expectation in our portfolio for 2024. But again, not a big increase. Why? Because we have these explained 3 special effects in 2023.
That's very helpful. Thank you. If I can follow up on the OpEx, I think you said EUR 100 million more on the staff cost in Frankfurt. Is it fair to assume that the electricity prices are coming down, so you have a tailwind there? And I think you used to talk about excess temporary workers in Frankfurt. So should there be another benefit, a reduction in OpEx there? I'm just trying to get the picture for the overall staff cost and other operating expenses in 2024. Any color you could offer, please?
Yeah, this is, but we have 2 effects. As you mentioned, we are going to reduce the number of external workers in ground handling. On the other side, we are still ramping up in ground handling on workers on our payroll. So this is more a compensating effect. Whether it's a little bit net positive or net negative, we can't say. But the final effect is a wage increase of about EUR 100 million, which we are going to expect, primarily in ground handling in 2024. And as you mentioned, energy costs flat or even a little bit lower. So we do not expect any further increase.
Again, there could be some tailwind from reduced energy prices, but today, to predict what are the final prices end of this year is a little bit too early. But we are in a positive mood, so to say.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harishankar Ramamoorthy. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple from me. So if I understood that right, the main reason behind the lower summer capacity is, as you said, you know, supply-related issues from Boeing, et cetera. But if I take a step back and look at Lufthansa adding capacity elsewhere, they do seem to be adding capacity in some of the other airports. Just wondering, you know, what's leading them to cut capacity at Frankfurt, but add it elsewhere, like in Munich or Zurich, for example? The second is on the 2030 guidance or the target of EBITDA at EUR 2 billion. Would it be possible to give us the building blocks behind this 2 billion target?
I mean, how much should we think comes from, incrementally from, Frankfurt itself? How much incrementally from, retail within that? What is the passenger, assumption you're making, and by 2030? And, if I, if I heard you right, you said, you're looking at some further opportunities, on the, international segment. So wondering if the EUR 2 billion target, encompasses any, you know, further additions to, international ops, and if there would be any investments towards that?
Let me start with your first question on Lufthansa. Why is it different in Frankfurt from Munich or Zurich? Lufthansa has taken a lot of years ago already a principal decision that they try to handle the multi-hub cost strategy costs that way, to reduce it somewhere, to keep it under control somewhere. That Munich is a pure into the Airbus industry fleet, and Airbus is now delivering the A350s. Maybe with some delay, but in principle, they are delivering. They had some problems there, but new aircraft on the A350 are coming in, and that's the same for Zurich. We are also on Airbus, but we are mainly on Boeing 747, 787, 777.
You know that especially the 777 has big problems, and the 787 is also somewhat delayed. That's the reason behind. Our positive thing is that the 747 , so-called Jumbo, is still in operation, is even going in complete overhauls and will, will be taking much longer. The 740 , they are still in operations, and they will continue to operate, but it's of course not optimal. And whether Lufthansa will take at some time a principal decision, depending on the delays, that they also take A350 to Frankfurt, I don't know. You have to ask this to Frankfurt. It depends very much on their strategy. But that's the reason behind. On the guidance, or the target of EUR 2 billion, we don't give more details at the moment.
We have to work out more details behind that point, going through all the strategic priorities. But we have a view that this will be roughly 50/50 on the international business and on the Frankfurt business, whether it's at the end, 50/50 or 45-55, something like this, in this range it will be. And then you can calculate the growth rate because it's on the actual business, including, of course, the prolongation of the new concession in Antalya. But it's not calculated big acquisitions or something like this. That's not in. We're not going for big acquisitions these days, big tickets, that due to our policy, we mentioned this, that we first have to bring down Net Debt.
To be very clear, free cash flow positive, that does not mean that we're not going for small issues like consultancy contracts or something like this, or smaller new contract, in the States, or on the center management or something like this. But, the EUR 2 billion is on the existing business with the existing concessions.
That's very helpful. Thanks. And if I may, have a follow-up. On the free cash flow target on around EUR 1 billion by 2030, just wondering if that marks or coincides with the end of the bulk of the CapEx for the T2 refurb. So would it be any different picture if we were to look at 2029 instead?
No, no. It's just very simple. When you have a target of EUR 2 billion EBITDA and EUR 1 billion free cash flows, the difference is determined by CapEx and interest expenses. And so, as we mentioned, the CapEx will be on a sustainable basis much lower than as of today, because the expansion programs are running out. And then we still focus on maintenance CapEx, and the rest is interest expenses and so on. And this is explaining the number in 2023, and there is no distortion, so to say, in 2029 or in 2031. So it's more a linear function than coming from 2029 over 2030 to 2031.
Wonderful. Thanks. That's very helpful.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Patrick Creuset with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. So first 1, coming back on your pricing comments, on comments on return on RAB headroom. Basically, the question is, at what pace can you keep increasing prices, and at what pace can you converge to your allowed return, considering that I think in the last 18 years, you've not met your allowed return once? And of course, you still have a lot of headroom, and I think there's more willingness to push pricing, but just have a bit more of a feel of how many years you hope to reach your allowed return now. Second question was just to clarify on the CapEx.
I think previously, I think you budgeted more for 1.3, maybe a little more of group CapEx in 2024, and it seems there's some pull forward based on your earlier comments. But just to clarify, the CapEx upgrade basically for 2024 is really just a pull forward, and we get sort of an equivalent reduction in CapEx, therefore, in 2025, 2026. Thank you.
You're starting with the second question. This is clear. So up to EUR 1.5 billion this year now is an expression that we are already in December, ready with the terminal in Lima. And again, Terminal 3 is running with full steam to the inauguration. So it's a positive impression, a positive signal for the progress on these 2 sites, and therefore, a significant decrease in the following years. And regarding your first question, first of all, it's not true. If you go into the past, before the expansion in Frankfurt, we always have been very close to the allowed return. So in the years, I don't know, 2005, 2006, 2007, so we have been close to the allowed return on assets.
Then, of course, we started the expansion with Frankfurt, with the fourth runway, with the A-Plus pier, et cetera, all this stuff. And then we always had this headroom because the RAB on 1 side went up, and also traffic didn't let me say, develop as expected. And then we had COVID and all this stuff, which, you know, that's the reason why we are now underperforming. But now we are ramping up, and you can see the positive escalation on the EBITDA side. And now, looking forward, also, it depends a little bit from the inflation side. Because we always say inflation/wage increase determines also the OpEx. And when the OpEx is higher, the EBIT would be lower, and this we are compensating by higher, by higher fees.
So there is some link between the wage escalation on 1 side and the fee escalation on the other side. As a compensating mechanism, which we have in our business model, and if you tell me what will be the wage increase in 3, 4, 5 years, we can tell you what could be about the fee increase in the next couple of years.
I mean, just to clarify, though, there's still a large gap, right? And between the actual and allowed return. So you would, on paper, have a strong case to continue with very high price increases somewhere in the same region that you've put through for 2024. I mean, is that basically the strategy to make sure you hit the allowed return as soon as possible?
Yeah, first of all, it's good to have the headroom, because otherwise we couldn't increase EBITDA as well as EBITDA. So we are happy to have this headroom because this gives you the guarantee that our EBITDA and EBIT numbers will go up. Otherwise, we have to pay back fees if we would achieve an excess return, and this is not the case. So we have the headroom, we are happy to have the headroom, and we are going to close the gap between the actual return on assets in comparison to the allowed return. And so last year, 3.3%, which was very low, and in 2024, the return on allowed assets, which will be higher, and now we are ramping up, and I think this is good.
This is combined with a mid- or long-term target of EUR 2 billion EBITDA. And of course, embedded in this is at a certain point of time, we exactly achieve our allowed return on assets. Otherwise, we cannot, we cannot move up to 2 billion EBITDA target.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Elodie Rall with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I just have some follow-ups at this stage. First of all, on CapEx, I mean, you, you're talking about 2024 being the last year of elevating CapEx. I know there's been question around CapEx outlook for 2024, but is it fair to to assume CapEx of around EUR 1 billion in 2025? Is that what gets you to about breakeven? Second, a follow-up on dividend. I was under the, under the impression that it was more likely to see a dividend in 2026, but in 1 of the previous questions, I wasn't sure if you said there was a possibility it could happen as soon as 2025. So if you could clarify that.
And lastly, on traffic at Frankfurt, you still expect to be quite below 2019 level in 2024, obviously. What about 2025? Do you see traffic returning to 2019 level as soon as 2025 now? Thank you. Thank you.
Perhaps I'll take the first question regarding CapEx. So if we assume the guidance for 2024 is EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion, assume because we are running like hell, which is good, so let's assume we would achieve EUR 1.5 billion, then in 2025, Lima is significantly reduced.
T3 is still on track because we still continue to construct in 2025, and there's always a delay between the construction progress and the payment of the bills. So with other words, a good-- You mentioned the 1 billion. I would recommend, as of today, EUR 1.1 billion in 2025, and if you take this in your internal consideration, calculating the free cash flow, you can come to the conclusion that the free cash flow should be, must be about around zero. So traffic, if we take the other 2 questions. Thanks very much. So you mentioned that we probably gave an impression that we could speed up with dividend payments. We didn't want to give any impression on that, right? So it was very, very neutral.
The question we got earlier was, would we pay immediately whenever we pay the EUR 2, yes or no? And on that side, I mentioned it depends a little bit when and at what time we start with dividend payments. Depends on the strategy, which has to be discussed with the supervisory board at that time then. And I mentioned I make a question mark, whether we really go with the first dividend payment on a level of EUR 2. So you should just take my personal view on that.
I would assume that, whenever we start with the first payment, it's probably not directly the EUR 2, because still there's, even if we start with net debt reducing, there's still a high debt situation, but it depends a little where the figures, the outlook are, and so on and so on. If you now ask me, I think we mentioned very clear today that the decision that we are not paying dividends in this year for the year 2023, and we gave clearly the indication that we are not expecting to pay dividends in the year 2025 for the year 2024.
Further indications we haven't given at the moment, but we have given you the indication that we expect to be free cash flow positive in the year 2025, and you had already a lot of questions on this. This is break even as this is a big positive development, but you know that given that the net debt will be quite high at that time, even if the ratio is coming better because the results are better. So I can't say today yes, or I can't say no, but I don't want to go to any discussions on probability, because first it has to be discussed then with the supervisory board.
On the traffic recovery, this depends very, very much on the questions, how are aircraft available, then there are pilots, how are they trained, whether the Pratt & Whitney topic is solved, whether the 777 topic is on the way. Yes, I understand that Boeing seems to have bigger problems with the 777 . This could be further delayed, and if you take all this together, I hope that we would come in 2025, close to the recovery level of 100%, but it's more a question mark on this these days. So to give a guidance now for 2025 is too early, but if we would be in between 95%, above 95% of the year 2019, I think that's best what we could estimate at the moment.
Depends very much on aircraft availability, because, yeah, it's very much also linked to the main customer here in Frankfurt, and, the market in general seems to stay positive from today's point of view.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Dario Maglione with BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Four questions for me. The first 1 on the 2030 target. Can I just confirm that basically you don't expect big M&A, internationally, not before 2030? Second question on CapEx guidance for 2024. You're guiding for EUR 350 million of CapEx in Frankfurt, excluding the Terminal 3. I think this was a bit higher than what we had before. Is this a maintenance CapEx that we should expect to continue in the next years? Third question is just on the OpEx. Sorry, we had some questions on the OpEx for the 3 segments in Frankfurt. But just to sum it up, how much of a year-on-year increase shall we model for the 3 segments of Frankfurt in 2024?
The fourth question is on the fixed concession payments. The guidance for 2024, it's basically, I think, EUR 150 million, including IAS 23, is higher than 2023. So I just wonder why the concession payments are going up, and should we expect them to increase faster in 2025? Thanks.
Let me start with the target on the M and A, M&A project, because I'm responsible for the international segment.
... myself, and I can just tell you, and because I'm responsible, and I have to go on my contract another 3 years, that for the next 3 years, 3 years, I can exclude big topics, big targets on that side. Thereafter, we have to see, if you ask me, can I guarantee you not exactly before the year 2030? No, I don't know, because it depends very much what's on the market, how are the figures at that time, how is the equity situations and the debt situation, the profit situation, and so on. What's clear, strategy-wise, we want to grow the international business organic, but also long term, maybe inorganic, but that depends very much, whether there are attractive assets on the market, yes or no.
From today's point of view, for the next 3-4 years, I would say, no, we don't see this. That's not our target. We will even not go for that, at least not for the next 3 years, where I, where I'm responsible for that. Thereafter, we have to see what's going on and whether it's at the end of the year 2029, and there would be a very attractive airport like Munich on the market. Yes, of course, I would go, but I'm not responsible any longer then.
Thanks.
Perfect. Then, CapEx guidance. I would like to go back to slide number 17 in our presentation, where we described the, the cash flow as well as the CapEx guidance, and you can see each and everything also regarding the future. So again, in 2024, we, we spend about EUR 600 million for the Terminal 3, and you can see up to EUR 350 million for the rest for, for maintenance. So in 1 year, it can be EUR 300 million, and another year it can be EUR 400 million. So this is a, this is a range, a maintenance CapEx range, for Frankfurt, also on a sustainable basis. The EUR 600 million will disappear at that point of time when T3 is, is open.
Lima, again, we have this about EUR 450 million, and we think we will achieve this amount in 2024. Why? Because we are going to open at the 18th of December this year, with otherwise an EPC contract, so with fixed installments, fixed regarding the amount as well as, the timing, the point of time. So this is a relatively clear amount. Also, again, this will be significantly lower than in 2025. And, yeah, then looking forward, again, EUR 300 million-400 million maintenance CapEx, plus some investments outside Frankfurt, which are minor. And here we have a proven track record. When you look on slide 10, where we showed what we spent for Brazil, EUR 20 million, what we spent for Greece, just EUR 14 million.
This is showing our CapEx discipline after finalizing the expansion or refurbishment programs, which we did in the past, and the same will happen in Lima as well as in Frankfurt. OpEx development or OpEx escalation will be determined in 2024 from the new tariff agreements, which are good for a little bit more than 9% increase, a little bit more on the volume side. This describes a cost increase of EUR 100 million, maximum EUR 110 million for the 3 segments at Frankfurt. Of course, the majority is determined or allocated to ground handling because this is a personnel-intensive segment which we have here in Frankfurt.
On the material expense side, again, driven by inflation or price increase on the energy side, this is stopped now, so we are confident this is flat or even going down. That's the situation.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star followed by the 1 on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Manish Beria with Société Générale. Please go ahead.
So yes, I will take the question 1 by 1. The first question is just a very simple 1 on the guidance, no? So what I understood is that, of course, you are giving a range, but in terms of traffic, probably you will be at the midpoint. So let's say if you achieve the midpoint of traffic, so where you land at the EBITDA? So that will be at the higher end or not, I mean. So this is a very simple 1. Then I will ask the next 1 once you answer that.
Yeah, it's very simple. We have a relatively broad range, and this is exactly linked to the traffic expectation, to 61 on 1 side in the worst case, and 65 in a positive case. And as you mentioned, if we are in the middle, EBITDA will also be more or less in the middle.
So basically, middle traffic means middle EBITDA. So it's like 1-to-one mapping in such case, right? I mean, okay, 1-to-one mapping in that case, yeah?
Everything from today's point of view, we are always working for more. So second question.
Yeah. So, the second question, I wanted to understand, what is your, like sustainable, let's say, once you do all the CapEx and everything comes very normal, what is, like, how much net debt EBITDA you want in your balance sheet? Because I checked your calculation, 2030, it looks fine, the EUR 2 billion EBITDA without acquisition, free cash flow EUR 900 million, EUR 1 billion, whatever, it's fine. But, I'm just trying to see, like, because if you have too much debt, because in my model I get a net debt EBITDA of something like more than 3 x, 3.2, 3.3 x net debt EBITDA. So just trying to see, this EUR 1 billion is totally free cash, or we have to further deleverage our balance sheet, no, from here, like something goes for making it more sustainable balance sheet.
Just trying to see what your long-term net debt/EBITDA target is in that sense, I mean?
First of all, it's good to have headroom. So we have this free cash flow, and then we can talk about how to allocate the money. In principle, there are 3 sources, and Stefan already have mentioned this. On 1 side, we are coming back with good dividends. That's for sure. Second, there's a focus on bringing down the absolute debt. This is also for sure, to end up with a net debt to EBITDA number, which is below five. And then we have a third item, which we could manage or where we could go for, and this is if and when there are attractive assets in the market, we also again have headroom for further growth, which today is not in our plan, but then we have the firepower to go for it.
These are the 3 elements: dividends/reduction of indebtedness/headroom for M&A projects.
But 3x is fine, right? 3x, if you have long-term basis, is fine, net debt to EBITDA, correct?
It's true, but it can also be four times, so it should be below five. Then we have to see what's on the market.
Normally, you would go-
Okay.
From today's perspective on a gearing in between a broad range, 80%-120%, but that depends on equity. That depends very, very much how the markets are and what are the opportunities, as Matthias mentioned. So, makes no sense. There is not the 1 goal, and you cannot manage a company by just 1 figure. That's 1 of the figures, 1 of the, on the ratios you have to have a look on, depending on the results. And I know you would like to make a model now and exactly precise that figure, but sorry, business is not working that way.
No problem.
120 would be a good range from today's point of view, with today's markets. It could be completely-
Okay.
different in five years.
And the last 1 is that... Sorry to come back again on this 1. So if I do my math, I mean, it seems your, the return on the regulated aviation business, will improve to something like 5.5% with the tariff that you have made, no, 9-9.5%. It's still below, like what you mentioned in your annual report, 7.5-7.6% WACC. So the question is, okay, there is some inflation, wage inflation, moving ground handling, less in aviation, but still there is some inflation. So in that sense, will you try already in 2025 to reach this 7-7.5% WACC, or it will be gradual, let's say?
Gradually. Gradually. And will be gradually, and we don't give a confirmation what the final level in the year 2030 exactly is, because we have to go also through consultations with airlines, and you should not always put everything on the table.
Okay, understood. So, so that's all from me. Thanks, thanks for your answers.
Welcome. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of José Arroyas with Santander. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen. 2 quick clarifications, I'm afraid, again, on CapEx. On Terminal 3 in Frankfurt, do you still maintain the assumption that the project will cost EUR 4 billion, considering that by the end of 2024, the cumulative spend will be EUR 3.6 billion? And also, regarding Terminal 3 and Lima, what are your current assumptions for the leftover payments, the receivable payments that we will see in 2025 and 2026? Thank you.
Yeah. Regarding Terminal 3, assuming we spend another EUR 600 million in this year, which is very likely, so we have an accumulated CapEx of about EUR 3.5 billion. So looking forward, now, it depends what is the final amount, and we always said the target was EUR 4 billion. We said there is some--there could be some cost overrun up to EUR 4.2 billion. We have to see at the end of the day, what is the final bill. So in other words, when we are end of 2024, we have another headroom, so to say, for cash out between EUR 500 million-EUR 700 million allocated over the next couple of years.
Regarding the terminal in Lima, assuming EUR 400 million in this year or EUR 450 million, so we have accumulated CapEx end of 2024 of about EUR 1 billion, and then there are some remaining costs in 2025, plus further CapEx for the second phase. So, let's assume there's another headroom up from end of 2024 of yeah, about EUR 300 million, next couple of years, so in 2025, 2026 following.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sathish Sivakumar with Citi. Please go ahead.
Yeah, I got 2 questions here. First is on 2024 target. If I look at the aeronautical segment, right? You, you did around EUR 300 million this year, and then if I add on the tariff, I—probably that gets me to another, 80 million, somewhere around that mark, plus the volume growth. So is it reasonable to say that your 2024 for aeronautical would be around EUR 400 million? But in your annual report, you do say that it's, it's unlikely to get to that EUR 400 million. So could you just explain me, is that the rest of the delta is just the cost, is what they're taking it off? And then the second 1 is around, again, to 2030 targets.
So if you have EUR 2 billion of EBIT, I'm assuming a 75% cash conversion, just based on historical average for the sector as such. So that would give me about EUR 1.5 billion of cash flow from operation. So the rest should be like CapEx, maintenance CapEx. Is it a fair assumption to say that EUR 500 million is what likely to be in maintenance CapEx as we go into 2030? And then just related to, again, 2030 target as such, is there any split between, say, if, from where we are today, 2024 to 2030, between aeronautical and commercial? How much is actually the upside is going to come from aeronautical versus commercial? Yeah, those are my 3 questions, actually. Yeah. Thank you.
Perfect. Yeah, starting with aviation, your calculation is correct. So we have 9.5 x seven—about EUR 700 million, EUR 800 million, sorry. So we are talking about roughly EUR 80 million price increase, plus the volume effect, depending now whether we end up with 62, 63 million passengers or 64, nobody knows. Yeah? So this is a variable in this game, but it's relatively sure that we have minimum, minimum EUR 100 million revenue increase in aviation. So which is like for like, going directly into the EBITDA level. But on the other side, we have, it's also relatively personnel intensive, as I mentioned. We have about EUR 100 million just wage increase, or let me say, personnel cost increase at the Frankfurt site. Some is allocated to aviation.
That's the reason why if you take the EUR 300 million in last year, you cannot end up with EUR 400 million in 2024. It's EUR 400 million minus X for the OpEx increase, and that's the reason why we will end up in the second half of 300 as the EBITDA guidance for aviation. In CapEx, EUR 400 million as a guidance for maintenance CapEx. Of course, it can be EUR 100 million less or more, but this is a good and rough number, plus interest expenses, which we have in this year, based on still a relatively high absolute indebtedness, of course, and plus tax payments.
So in the moment, we are very comfortable situation due to the Loss Carry Forward, that we are more or less paying very minimal taxes, but this is changing when the tax law, the Loss Carry Forward is exhausted, then we have to pay again taxes, real taxes, so to say, not IFRS taxes. And this is also a little bit absorbing then parts of the EBITDA. So with other words, we have CapEx, we have interest expenses, and we have taxes, and the rest is the Free Cash Flow. The split of aviation and commercial, we are not giving. So we gave you already the indication that Frankfurt, compared with the international business, it will be roughly 50/50 or in the range of 45%-55%, something like this.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Nicolas Mora with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen. Quick 1. On just looking at the guidance for 2024, I'm struggling with the with your international activities guidance. You you're pointing to so similar level of EBITDA as in 2024 versus 2023, so EUR 560 million. That includes so another COVID contribution in Greece, so let's call it, let's say EUR 530 million underlying. Your your underlying base in 2023, stripping out all the 1-offs was EUR 500 million, so EUR 500 million-EUR 530 million. But in there, you've got the headwinds from Greece in terms of the the step up in in concession fee. You also have a step down in in Fraport USA, because you're switching from from contracts not recognizing leasing costs. So I'm I'm not quite sure where the growth is gonna come from Europe and international.
Okay, a bit of growth in traffic in Greece, bit of traffic in Bulgaria, but that doesn't give you the EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million EBITDA you need to hit your guidance. So if you don't mind shedding a little bit of light on how you get to your math, that would be very helpful. Thank you.
It's, it's relatively simple. So first of all, we had in 2023, we had 3 positive extraordinary effects. This was a COVID compensation in Greece, more than EUR 30 million, was COVID compensation in Brazil, about EUR 20 million, and it was a Pittsburgh deal. What will happen in 2024? No further Pittsburgh deal, no further COVID compensation in Brazil, but another COVID compensation in 2024 of EUR 28 million. So this EUR 28 million, I'm not talking about the EUR 5 million difference, is more or less the same like in the previous year. So with other words, we have a net delta from 2023 to 2024 of EUR 30 million. Again, EUR 20 million coming from Brazil, as well as EUR 10 million from the Pittsburgh deal. So this we have to compensate to be on the same level again. How we are going to compensate this? This is traffic growth everywhere.
Strong traffic growth expected in Lima, for example, but everywhere, good, solid, traffic increases, plus everywhere, fee increases. So, and with these elements, volume times price increases, we are compensating. The EUR 30 million are all positive from 2023, plus hope that it will be a little bit more. That's the reason why we gave the guidance, same level as in 2023 or even slightly above.
Right. But if I may, we agree on the EUR 30 million, but your starting point is even lower than that. Your concession fee in Greece is stepping up,
No.
On paper. Okay, so it's not. And then Fraport USA is its contribution going down quite markedly?
Just for clarification. In Greece, everything was spoiled by the COVID compensation, but the mechanism are as follows: we, in Greece, we have to pay 28% from the EBITDA as a variable concession fee, plus EUR 23 million fixed concession payment every year. So this is the mechanism running as long as the concession is there. This was insofar spoiled. While the COVID compensation has not been paid in cash, it was always a reduction of these concession payments, and this made the whole situation a little bit intransparent. But again, the underlying concession payments are, have always been the same, and we have the only difference is that I think in last year it was thirty... How many was the COVID compensation? Thirty or-
34.
34, and now we are going to receive 28. So we have a minus of EUR 6 million as a net delta between 2024 versus 2023. Yeah.
Okay, all right.
This EUR 30 million, again, will be compensated by volume increase everywhere, plus fee increase everywhere.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Graham Hunt with Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Thanks for the follow-up. Just a quick 1, actually, on 2025 free cash flow. So I think you said you expect CapEx to step down to EUR 1.1 billion in 2025. So from the EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion, down to EUR 1.1 billion. So that gives you EUR 350 million additional on your EUR 600 million negative free cash flow. The remainder on your 2025 bridge, is that all coming from EBITDA, or is there some other variation in that free cash flow bridge that we should be thinking about to get to neutral in 2025? Thanks.
No, it's again, it's EBITDA. Of course, we have some positive contribution at equity from Antalya, but this is more or less in the normal range. So again, it's EBITDA minus interest risk minus CapEx. Then the outcome is zero, about zero.
Okay, thanks.
Welcome.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I now hand the call back over to Christoph Nanke with closing comments. Over to you.
Thank you all for your good questions and interesting discussion. If you have further questions, please call us in IR, and I wish you a good rest of the day. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.