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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 18, 2021

Speaker 1

Good day, and welcome to the Hawk Thief 2020 Results Presentation Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

Speaker 2

At this time, I would like to turn

Speaker 1

the conference over to Mr. Mike Pinkney. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 3

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the Halk T 2020 results call. I'm Mike Pinkney, Head of Corporate Strategy, And I'm here with our Chief Executive, Martelino Fernandez our CFO, Peter Sassemfeld and our Head of Capital Markets, to be as lost, Cam, along with several other colleagues from the senior management team of Hawk Tief. We look forward to addressing your questions, but to Start off with our CEO, who is going to run us through the key aspects of the numbers. Marcelino, all yours.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Mike and the team. Good afternoon to everyone and thanks for joining us. In a challenging year, HOTIF The group achieved a nominal net profit of For €427,000,000 in 2020, net cash from operating activities of €1,100,000,000 And finished the year with an order book of close to $46,000,000,000 Key highlights for 2020. Operation and profit for the year was €477,000,000 The year on year comparison was of course affected by the economic impact of COVID And the associated mobility restrictions imposed by governments. This had a particularly significant effect on profits at Abertis, where The 20% stake contribution to our profit swung from a positive €122,000,000 in 2019 to a loss of $70,000,000 in 2020.

Adjusting for this $139,000,000 year on year reduction, HOTIG's operational Net profit per year Abertis was just 9.6% lower, reflecting the resilience of the group's operating divisions. This is also illustrated by our €23,700,000,000 of sales, excluding the Gogo non cash Accounting impact, which were only 6% lower year on year on an FX adjusted basis. Margins also held up well virtually unchanged in terms of EBITDA and EBIT. Slide variations at the PBT level are driven partly by the mix effect due to a higher proportion of group profits coming from Americas. In relation to this, I would highlight that this division accounted for close to 50% of Our operational net profit in 2020.

Otis generated net cash from operating activities of $1,100,000 supported by the seasonally strong 4th quarter performance, which accounted for over 80% of the 12 months figure. We ended 2020 with a net cash position of €618,000,000 and a strong liquidity position. Adjusted for non operating effects and shareholder remuneration, HOCHTIEF We have a net cash position of $1,600,000,000 compared with $1,500,000,000 a year ago. The group's order book remained robust at $46,000,000,000 stable during the quarter and also year on year when adjusted for FX movements and this is complemented by the identified project pipeline of over 570,000,000,000 Moving to the cash flow detail on Slide 5, I will highlight the following. You will see that the 4th quarter performance was very resilient with €890,000,000 of operating net cash Generated refractory within around 10% of the comparable 2019 level.

For the 12 months, we can also observe a solid working capital performance, notwithstanding the effects of the pandemic. We reduced our net capital expenditure by nearly $150,000,000 year on year to 3.71,000,000 As a consequence, HOTBI delivered underlying free cash flow from operations of $727,000,000 in 2020. And in Q4, the $790,000,000 generated was almost back at 2019 levels. So the overall picture is one of the resilience in our cash generation and reflects our key objective Let's look at the balance sheet. As I mentioned earlier, HOTIF ended 2020 with over $600,000,000 of net cash.

Looking at the valuation over the last 12 months, I would mention the high level of shareholder remuneration. Dollars 406,000,000 paid out as dividends to HOCHTIE shareholders. JV Max at HOCHTIEF and CIMIC totaling $339,000,000 and in addition, dollars 104,000,000 Was invested to increase our CIMIC stake now at 78.6%. Furthermore, we have had several significant non operating effects. €1,260,000,000 of cash Proceeds for the divestment of 50 percent of this, €844,000,000 of cash out related to BICC, €355,000,000 reduction in factoring, which now stands at just over 1,000,000,000 And a negative $220,000,000 impact from FX variations.

If we adjust for these effects, Which are non operating in nature, Cocteave would show a net cash position of $1,600,000,000 as illustrated in the chart compared with €1,500,000,000 at December 2019. In terms of liquidity, the group's position remains strong at €5,400,000,000 with a further €2,100,000,000 of unused credit facilities. So overall, we have started the New Year with a solid and de risked balance sheet, which leaves us well positioned for 2021 and beyond. Let's look now at Our major recent project wins. In Americas, a Titan Flatiron led joint venture secured A US2.3 billion dollars project to build a new terminal at San Diego Airport.

And Flatiron won a water infrastructure project in California worth US123 $1,000,000 At the end of January, as well as several projects using the progressive contracting method, which is similar to the low risk client style model we see in Australia. In Europe, HOCHTIEF has been awarded a number of significant new contracts in recent weeks, such as the EUR580,000,000 joint venture For the alternative in Hamburg, Amsemi has secured a number of wins including the 1.5 1,000,000,000 10 year rail operation and maintenance contract in New South Wales, which was announced last week. Order book. The group's order book has remained robust ending the period at €46,000,000,000 This figure is adjusted for the parcel divestment of Peace and thus includes 50% of the working hand of the contract mining business. Adjusting for FX, our order backlog is stable year on year and also during the last quarter.

And it is worth highlighting the geographic diversification we have with Americas now accounted for half of our order book, Asia Paca another 40% or so and Europe almost 10%. Importantly, you And see positive trend in new orders, which increased during the 1st 3 quarters of the year and held up Well in Q4. For the whole 2020, we generated new orders equivalent to 94% of the work done Looking forward, Our local teams have identified a project identified line with over $570,000,000,000 of relevant projects Coming to our markets in North America, Asia Pac and Europe for $221,000,000 and beyond, Supported by $180,000,000,000 in PPP projects and the numerous government stimulus packages we have been announced. Now I look at our divisions, Americas. Americas division, which delivered a really outstanding performance in 2020.

Sales were solid at €14,700,000,000 versus €15,300,000,000 in 20.19. That's just 2% lower in local currency terms notwithstanding the impact of COVID-nineteen. Operational PBT advanced by 5% year on year to $337,000,000 with a robust margin of 2.3% compared with 2.1% in 2018. Operational net profit rose 11% to €244,000,000 Profits and margins increased at both Tana and Flatir. Americas also continues to deliver strong cash generation.

During 2020, the division achieved a high level of net cash from operating activities of $673,000,000 pre factored, almost in line with previous year's record level and despite the impact of the pandemic. The divisional net cash position At the end of December 2020, it stood at $1,400,000,000 up $93,000,000 year on year in local currency terms. The order situation at Americas remain robust with the order backlog ending the 2020 at 22,600,000,000 An increase of 5% year on year in U. S. Dollars perms.

And new orders of $15,400,000,000 during 2020 We're equivalent to 1.1 times the wet done during the year. Looking forward, We anticipate a solid 2021 performance at Americas. The volume of work associated with data centers Continues expanding and we are seeing increased investment in the healthcare and pharma sectors. Banaf has a strong position as the number one healthcare construction provider in the U. S.

And also in airports, Large industry clients continue to invest, supported by increasing public funding and driven by the need To modernize and improve ramparts, which are nearing the end of the service life. Furthermore, the increased opportunities for negotiated contract in the civil market supported by the U. S. Government, Spending and stimulus measures mean Flatiron is very well positioned to continue growing In the lower risk market. And then because of that, we expect operational PBT in the Americas business for 2021 of €320,000,000 to €350,000,000 Let's move to Asia Pacific division and CIMIC results were published last week And adjusting for the impact of the gain on the sale of 50% of this as well as the one offs related to Gorgon and other items, CIMIC reported underlying revenue of $12,600,000,000 compared to $14,700,000 in the prior year With the impact of COVID leading to a slowdown in revenues across activities and a temporary delay in new work.

Underlying PBT was $838,000,000 and the associated PBT margin remained robust at 6 0.6 percent and underlying impact of just over ARS600 1,000,000 Demi completed the sale of 50% of its Contoured Mining business at the end of 2020. The capital gain generated of the transaction offset the EBITDA of the resolution of the Gogo and Git invitation and other one off expenses. The divestment generated net cash proceeds of US2.1 billion dollars which more than offset The $1,400,000,000 of cash outflows associated with BICC. In relation to this, I would I highlight the announcement earlier this week that CIMIC has signed a share purchase agreement for the sale of its 45% stake in BHSE subject to customary closing conditions, which is the final step of the decision last year to exit the Middle East and involves no additional financial exposure. BACC will be consolidated as a discontinued operation And as an asset held for sale in our 2020 annual accounts.

Refactoring operating cash flow reached A total of US579 $1,000,000 and cash flows were affected by COVID Due to reductions in revenue, the lower volume of work and increased project costs impacting net working capital. Furthermore, the suspension of Leitron Asia's tendering license in Hong Kong, which has now been restored And the completion of some existing projects in Leighton Asia contributed to an operating cash flow deterioration of approx for $400,000,000 year on year. The company maintains a disciplined focus on net capital expenditure with 549,000,000 Invested during 2020 approx $400,000,000 lower year on year. EniQ finished the year with a net cash position of BRL190,000,000. The rating agency for this company is Strongly rated in January 2021.

The working hand of US30 $100,000,000 adjusted for the sale of 50 percent of teas compares with US32 $600,000,000 a year ago and is equivalent to about 2 years' worth of revenue. Over $500,000,000,000 of tender relevant pacemics are expected to be beat and or awarded in 2021 and beyond, including AUS130 billion dollars of identified P2P opportunities. In addition, the AUS281 million dollars of cash returned to its shareholders during the year, CEMIC announced the reinstatement of its dividend with a payout of 60% to 65%. Demick published NPEB guidance of US400 $1,000,000 to US413 $1,000,000 for 2021, Which equates to an 8% to 16% year on year increase when compared with the pro form a 2020 impact adjusted For the 50% e sale, Europe, OcTIG Europe achieved A solid performance in 2020. Sales were 3% higher compared with 2019 At $1,270,000,000 reflecting a disciplined bidding approach and notwithstanding the impact of COVID-nineteen.

Operational net profit of $56,000,000 increased year on year when adjusted for the impact of FX movements With solid performances from construction and PPPs. Octave Europe generated a strong net cash from operating activities of $121,000,000 in 2020, up $79,000,000 year on year. At the end of December 2020, the division's balance sheet showed a strong net cash position of 544,000,000 A $33,000,000 increase. New orders remain at a firm level with €2,000,000,000 The work secured during the last 12 months equivalent to 1.3 times were done. The divisional order backlog And in 2020 at $4,300,000,000 representing visibility of over 2.5 years.

For 2021, we expect operational PBT for euro of €40,000,000 to €60,000,000 On the next slide, we summarize the performance of Abertis. Abertis traffic development in 2020 saw a strong decline in March after extensive lockdown measures We are enforced by governments in key markets due to COVID. Since end April, traffic trends Have shown improvements, but with variations driven by the timing of regional mobility restrictions. Overall, average daily traffic saw a decrease of 21%. Revenues of over 4,000,000,000 Euros were 18% lower year on year on a comparable basis.

Lower traffic volume resulted in a 2020 EBITDA of 2,630,000,000 A 23% reduction on a comparable basis. Our net profit pre PPA was €365,000,000 The net profit contribution to HOTIF from the 20% Abertis stake in 2020 Amounted to minus $17,000,000 compared with plus $122,000,000 in 20 19, Abertis has distributed $175,000,000 dividend to its shareholders in 2020 With HOCHTIEV receiving a total of $173,000,000 The Verdi's Board has proposed A dividend of $600,000,000 per annum for 20212022. Abertis' strategic plan remains focused on investments in new assets in order to perpetuate the duration of cash flows And to diversify the portfolio geographically. In June 2020 and together with GIC, the acquisition Brownfielder Road Company, Rede Carreteras Vicente was closed. RCO is one of the largest transport operators in Mexico.

Hanna Abertis invested €1,500,000,000 equity for its 53% stake. Subsequently in November, Adelis partnered with Manu Life Investment Management Acquired the Elizabeth River Crossing Concession ERC in the U. S. For €1,000,000,000 equity in which Our toll road company will have a 55% holding. This concession, which is operating tunnels in the area of Knock For Virginia is a 58 year concession with 50 years remaining.

And looking forward, we expect our Abertis stay with return to making a positive net profit contribution in 2021. So let's conclude. Jokiv management continues to actively assess its capital allocation options of which shareholder remuneration Remains a key ingredient. Management will propose a dividend for 2020 of 3.93 €278,000,000 in absolute terms. This represents an unchanged payout ratio of 65%.

And it will bring the Total dividend distributed by HOCHTIE to its shareholders since 2012 to almost €1,900,000,000 Additionally, over this period, the group has returned about $800,000,000 via HOCHTIS buybacks, including 168 This will give a total shareholder remuneration since 2012 of 2,700,000 equivalent to around €38 per share and following our 100 and €4,000,000 2020 Investment and CEMEX own share buyback, we now hold Our guidance for 2021 is For an operational net profit of between €410,000,000 €460,000,000 This represents an increase of 11% to 25% year on year compared with €58,000,000 of 2020 adjusted for the divestments of 50% of this. Looking forward, the pipeline of price opportunities identified by our teams, as I said, in our core developed markets Stands at €570,000,000 at a broadly similar level to LaSia. Then thank you

Speaker 3

or

Speaker 1

Our first question today comes from Victor Asatores of Societe Generale.

Speaker 5

Hi, Martellino and team. Good afternoon. I have two questions, if I may, related with U. S. Business Unit, what the first one would be the outlook for that business.

This year the trend has been very robust. And what is the outlook going forward? This is the first one. And the second regarding the U. S, is that you are running still with plenty of tasks in In the activity, is there a way that you can transfer these cash to the holding activity, so there is a money in order to reduce that?

Okay. It's still a good question. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hi, it's Mike here. Thanks for your question. Yes, looking in general terms, the outlook for Americas It's pretty positive. As you saw the guidance there we have is for an operational PBT of between 320 And talking to our colleagues in Americas, they're seeing, as Marcelino was saying, Increased investment in data centers in areas such as hospitals, pharmaceutical research And their impression is that, that could probably offset any potential downturn in other areas of commercial building. And again, as Marcini was highlighting, Turner is the number one builder in the healthcare sector and has been for several years.

And that's allied with also its position as a number one green builder in the U. S. So We think the company's outlook is positive both in the short and long term. As we highlighted Earlier, the order book is very solid. It was up in U.

S. Dollar terms. It was up 5% Year on year, the sales were roughly stable. And in general, The construction management model that is used by Turner is a very good and effective And the other question was regarding dividends and cash In the Americas division, so I mean, every year, the Americas pays a dividend to Hawk Tief AG, and that's an ongoing process, which continues. And there is yes, we're always looking at opportunities to optimize the cash management.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Christian Koer of HSBC.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much. Good afternoon.

Speaker 7

I have a few questions.

Speaker 4

The first one is, How would

Speaker 7

you describe the current state of project awards by the authorities in the different markets? I mean, if I look at the performance Or let's say the order awards over the different regions in the last quarters, it seems that the performance was very different. I just wanted to hear your view, how you see the situation today and then how far are the authorities up to their normal Working habits. The second question deals with the CapEx requirement. How should we think about the CapEx in the future After the T's transaction.

And then I have two questions on Abertis, please. The first one is, my understanding By the time of the acquisition of Abertis, was that the plan was to invest more in greenfield PPPs, Also to benefit from the experience in construction and previous PPPs that Hukhees at ACS had. But so far, I'm not aware of any project wins by Abertis in this field. So is this correct? And if it is, why is that?

The last question on this is, why Abertis instead invested in existing infrastructure, which I understand it has a different value creation and possibly also lower value creation compared to greenfield projects. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you, Christian. Regarding your first question, The different approach to the markets regarding the current situation, it's clear that the approach For the different authorities or clients in the different markets is different. It's different and you can see that the pandemic evolution also is different. Everybody wants to very fast, let's say, continue investing.

There are a lot of investment plans, all these kind of stimulus packages In all the countries that we are working, there are a lot of, let's say, a lot of envy of having this Projects is starting, but in regard of the potential constraints, what I would say is that initially, All the things regarding projects are not suffering very, very much problems because This activity is considered very essential in all these markets. It's affecting very much the economy, it's affecting very much the employment. And because of that, what we are seeing is that the clients are cooperating as much as possible in order, let's say, To speed up all these processes, ongoing processes and projects. So maybe regarding CapEx requirements,

Speaker 3

you can give Yes, Christian, hi, it's Mike here. Yes, you were asking about the CapEx level To the partial divestment of Keith, I mean, Syndicate said, Syndicate itself indicated The $580,000,000 gross CapEx that they had in 2020, TISS accounted for about €450,000,000 So, maybe more or less, you can work out that the ongoing The CapEx level would be less than half the previous level as a consequence of that divestment.

Speaker 4

The question about this Ebertis strategy, greenfield, brownfield projects. Well, the real study was that we wanted to perpetuate as much as possible and that is life. And this is very important if you take into account that you need to combine the existing life of the project with the future life. Greenfield, Brownfield Project, it is clear that in any case, The companies in this regard, the partners, it doesn't matter if Aplante or ACS or whole teeth. We are helping very much in all the processes in order, let's say, to approach Abertis to new markets.

You have 2 I know that the 2 of them are brownfield, but the reality is that This was helped by the shareholders significantly because of the experience in the markets and the knowledge of the clients. And because of that, I think that this cooperation is being very positive. I mean, it's helping Abertis to replace projects that they're going to an end. On the other hand, it's true that the value creation that can come from greenfield projects Could be higher, but also it's true that the maturity for helping the company, Jose, to continue delivering profits is longer. And in any case, it's nothing that we are renouncing, but it's also depending on the market opportunity.

But The cooperation is open and the relationship with the team, the Senegal teams is very good and then is being showed in the press that I told you.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you very much for these answers.

Speaker 1

The next question today comes from Louis Prieto of Kepler.

Speaker 8

Good afternoon, team. Hope you hear me. I had a couple of questions very quickly. The first one is, I know your business model, in particular, in the U. S.

Is well protected against cost inflation and this sort of pressure, but I would like to know if you could highlight Amy points of theoretical weakness in an environment, I think, of increasing inflation in any of your contracting businesses worldwide. Again, my assumption is that you're well protected, but I would like to know if there's anything I'm missing. The second question and coming back to that PPP You've highlighted once again in your presentation that you see a huge EPP opportunity worldwide. You're talking about €180,000,000,000 Should we expect HOCHVIE to speed up the investment in the context of the main shareholders' commitment to infrastructure investment After they complete the proposed industrial services disposal, is this infrastructure increased infrastructure commitment something that we could understand as sort of a

Speaker 4

Risks regarding potential cost increasing or inflation cost In the recent markets, we realize that usually the way that we do, all the different index are included in our Everything has been included or you have a formula that is really contemplating if something is happening in the market That you can get it back. Currently, what is a little bit for instance, if you look at the Americas market, it's a little bit around. The costs I'm going a little bit down and in fact, we are protected for that. We don't see Any risk on having extra cost or inflation in our cost because of the current situation of the market. The other one, We believe that we are in a good position.

And there is a second, say, point, which is that Because of the previous years and because of the previous years, what I think that right now is that the market is not under the stress and then I think that the bids I'm not so aggressive that they were 3 years ago. This is one more protection than you don't need. Let's say to be We are seeing in bidding and then we follow this kind of de risking approach in bidding, which is very important to us And it's really giving to us very good results. Regarding PPP strategy, yes, you know That what we have in our group of companies, you have the 5 company ACS, that there is a PPP company, which is Iridium, that is a very, very successful company in PPPs for many years. We have also at Joktiv, our PPP company, been also very successful.

And we have Also in Australia, PPP company, Pacifel Partnerships also very successful in that market. In theory, what we are doing is just trying to say To get some advantage of the opportunities in the recent markets applying the companies that they are working selectively in that market for instance. This $180,000,000 projects that we're expecting coming from PPTs, more or less 45% All of them are coming in Australia, 25% in USA, 20% in Canada And 10% in Europe. And then when we say Europe, we include the overall Europe. What we are not doing is just, say, competing amongst ourselves.

Then what we are selectively focusing in what we have in our Main markets and because of that, I believe that we are very successful. Then this is one of the things that you can see in the overall And then the companies will apply the resources depending on what is the market intention. If you look at Europe, Then 180,000,000 PPPs, meaning that there is $180,000,000,000 $18,000,000,000 in Europe And then it's placed for Europe in different countries. And obviously, HOOTIF is mainly focused in the countries that we are working in an actual You know that in Europe, we are formally speaking in Germany and Northern Europe countries, let's say, UK, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic and all these countries. If you are very selective, you realize that We will continue, there's a focus in this market regarding HOCHTIEF and this is the main idea.

Speaker 8

So I'm not filling up from what you're saying. We should not expect at European level an increase versus your previous level of activity in the PPP sector,

Speaker 4

The phrase that we have identified and that we will like, let's say, to follow

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Martin Wortel of Bank of America.

Speaker 9

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on your balance sheet. So you have a net cash position of EUR 600,000,000. Is that a good proxy for your, let's say, reinvestments for your power?

Or would you be prepared to go into a net debt position If you were to see attractive opportunities, including PPPs. And then my second question is On the shareholder remuneration, do you have the intention to continue with share buybacks at the healthy level In 2021? And also do you have the intention to increase your stake in CIMIC? And And maybe you could offer at least some high level thoughts on the use of share buybacks within your capital allocation strategy? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Sorry. Thank you, Marcin. Yes, we have And a credit position in our balance sheet around $600,000,000 Obviously, we are always when we are looking at capital allocation, One of the ways that we allocate capital is through our PPPs. But as you can realize in my previous answer, Obviously, we can continue living with this and if we are not going to put at any moment of risk our position in our net cash position, obviously €600,000,000 even if you are very, very successful are not easy, let's say, to invest in PPPs. And because of that, Don't be worried about it because our cash position will be totally safe and we will take part on all these PPP processes.

As a part of this capital allocation in the previous year, you remember that we always just looking at how could we do or take advantage of And one of the market opportunities that we always consider was exactly how can we look at The best opportunity, sometimes we consider that the share price of the company was very attractive and then because Of that, we made some share buybacks and this is like a general view. We are not really focused on Currently on doing that, we'll see if the capital allocation, we'll see how the cash flow of the company continues going on. We'll see how the markets evolve And we'll see what is more convenient. But in principle, we don't have in advance any plan, let's say, to continue Looking at the buybacks as a target in themselves. This is something that We'll analyze carefully, but it's not currently a target like We want to say to do this and this is our own way to do it.

No, no. We will continue looking at how can we improve This return to our shareholders and obviously capital allocation is one of the things that is more necessary, but not necessarily Throughout the way that we've done several years ago when we consider that the opportunities in the market at that point were

Speaker 1

The next question today comes from a ruchilpaeva of Stifel Europe.

Speaker 2

Hi, Marcelino, Mike and team. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple of questions from my end, if I may. Just to follow-up firstly on the new order intake. So I understand that you mentioned that clients are trying hard to bring new projects to market.

Speaker 1

So I just want

Speaker 2

to get your take on whether you think the new projects will start to come to market in the first half of the year or if you think it will be More of a second half story, given the sharp declines we've seen in new orders in 2020, do you anticipate any increased competition for tenders this year and whether or not you think that will have an impact On the margins you can generate from these projects? My second question also just relates to costs and more specifically some of the one off costs that we saw Simic and Co relating to COVID-nineteen. I'm wondering if you could tell us what the impact of COVID-nineteen is currently on your business And whether or not you anticipate HOCHTIEF and its subsidiaries to have to conduct similar negotiations at the end of the year to recoup potential Cost blowouts relating to COVID-nineteen and its impact? And then finally, please correct me if I'm wrong with one last question, but It appears the corporate costs within your operating profit before tax rose quite substantially this year. Firstly, is that correct?

And if so, could you just

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you, Russell. So the first, You know that usually the markets are always aiming, let's say, to beat the price as soon as possible because it's Interesting for them, let's say, to do this and to try, let's say, to have infrastructure and to have all the necessary things as soon as possible. They are aiming to do this as fast as possible. It's clear that we don't know what is going to be The rhythm, we don't know if the pace of the price coming in is going to be higher in the first 6 months or in the first or the second half of the year.

But through the year, the important thing is continuity. And what is important also is like the amount of new projects coming to the market is going to be very important, meaning that Competition is not going to be necessarily aggressive. There will be food in the market, food in the market for everybody. And because of that, I don't think that the competition I don't think that the new situation will give us An increase in any cost because of higher competition. The impact of the COVID in our business.

Look, in my speech, I was explaining that we have €139,000,000 Coming from traffic and then traffic is really affecting very much to Abertis. $139,000,000 meaning that was 21% less traffic Compared to the previous year, was a very important figure. And obviously, this is the main affection that we have. If you want to evaluate, it's very difficult to evaluate. You know that construction In the countries that we are operating is seen as essential activity and then you have in theory All the advantages, obviously there are some disadvantages because of the disruptions that the COVID restrictions are I've given to the different countries, but the real impact is Depending on the places and geographies, for instance, you look at Australia last year, the impact was very important in Australia.

But the Australia economy and the Australia way of understanding things is a little bit different that if you go to a different countries in which we are working. If you compare this with, I don't know, Germany, Spain, U. S, Canada, it's not directly comparable. This is not very comparable. In fact, you can see this when you compare also how the countries Facing the COVID issues in the recent countries located in Australia is doing totally in a different way and obviously is affecting activities in a different way.

In Germany, affecting in a different way because here in Germany we'll have a different approach. But all in all, apart from this direct impact coming from this traffic Low wind is 21% damage suffered by Abertis. I don't know if we can say that the impact can be more or less in line what we can see in our Operations, when you see the variation and we are talking about, I don't know, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% depending on the places. And in other countries maybe the impact is a little bit higher like we saw in Australia and was presented in Australia a week ago.

Speaker 3

And, Ruchil, hi, it's Mike here. Just to follow-up a little bit on your operating the corporate headquarter costs, The PBT level that he mentioned, I mean basically the swing from 2019 to 2020 is about 140,000,000 And that's basically driven by the Abertis swing that went from a profit contribution of $122,000,000 to A minus €17,000,000 contribution. So that's basically the main driver. The underlying costs at the headquarter level We're staying in fact, I think, at the operational level slightly lower.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you very much for that.

Speaker 1

Sorry, if you don't

Speaker 2

mind, just one more follow-up question. Within your guidance for 2021, the operational net profit of €410,000,000 to 4.60, Could I ask what you currently anticipate in order in regards to new orders? Do you anticipate an immediate pickup in the Q1 For it to follow on to the year thereafter or do you anticipate a slower pickup in new orders in that respect within your guidance?

Speaker 4

So what we are looking at the new orders, we don't look at any orders quarter by quarter. We are looking at new orders In a 12 months period, because it's very difficult. Many times, for instance, imagine there are a lot of bids ongoing And they can be secured in the next 2 months or not, someone are postponed because There are changes in the authorities and then they are postponing. That's why it's very difficult and we are not following Quarter by quarter, we're following in a 12 month basis. And this is exactly the key parameter that we are using for Following order book and new orders.

And this is compensated because when we look at, for instance, other things, cash, Yes, there is a kind of seasonality. In EO, this is impossible to predict this seasonality, depending on the countries, depending on the moment, Depending on the local budgets, that's why it's not that I don't want to answer. It's the answer the answer I've given to you is like We are not really worried if in the Q1 we reach more or less. It's a good news because it's given to you and it's helping you In a 12 month basis, but the order book and the new orders, etcetera, We are analyzing them in a 12 month basis, not in a quarterly basis.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thank you very much. It's very helpful.

Speaker 1

The next question today comes from Nicholas Mora of Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 5

Yes, Antoinette. Just a few follow ups on what's been asked already. First one on just on competition in the U. S. Your view that there will be food fall is not shared by all participants.

I think one of your key competitors, Kanska, has a slightly different view. I just wanted to know if your comments really apply to non regs and Turner more than non infra, where there seems to be a bit of a scarcity I've worked out there at the moment waiting for stimulus to come through. That's the first one. Second one on can you tell us anything New updates on what's happening with the AP7 compensation at Abertis. That's a big part of your the value of your Abertis stake.

Just wondering, this is still on the agenda in terms of solving the judicial battle by the end of the year 2021? And last point on CIMIC. Can you give us a little bit of color as to how much What efforts, time, cost you think the Australian business in construction will need in order to restructure and deliver Better margins and better cash flow. Is it a 12 month, 18 month kind of battle? Or is this going to take even longer?

And then very last one on Filiq again. The business thrives on large orders. What's your feel In terms of potential orders, large scale orders for CMIC in 2021, considering that 2020 was clearly a year to forget for that one. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Nicolas. Then when I'm telling our view about that the competition It's not really damaging costs, etcetera, in the U. S. Market. Say, well, our company, for instance, we were Talking about, for instance, Terna, Terna has clients that many, many times what is Happening to us, to Terna is that to the clients are asking us to take part of the different bids.

In this regard, we are asked to do this. We are not just going to A free open market is a market that is very selective. Most of the clients have worked with us for several years. There is a kind of internal knowledge. This is very, very much important is what is given to us this kind of A solid performance in the market and because of that, we don't see, we don't see, we don't foresee because there's a lot of work coming.

We don't foresee that especially we are going to say to have any issues in competing with other companies And affecting us for tightening the margins in this regard. Your second question is About the AP-seven compensation, the AP-seven concession is going to an end this August, By the end of August and then obviously after that, what we have to do is just to present what are the real numbers, the One of the things that happened on the AP7 was exactly this that we were advised to do this. Once you The real numbers, then you presented the real numbers to us and then later on we will judge if we Consider that this is appropriate. Then this is the process. We will follow the process.

And what I have to tell you is that In August, we will finish our concession time frame and then we will present accordingly The final numbers to the administration. Then your questions about CIMIC efforts, obviously, you're right that 2020 has been a very demanding year for CIMIC In many aspects, it's true that the market was not very, very Large in bidding and then it looks like this year the market is going to be More open on that and then there will be a lot of opportunities and they will have and we are aiming to have and then if you look at The CEMIC presentation last week, they are really very positive on that and they believe that 2020 1 is a great opportunity to improve and get in new orders because there will be Large remarket for that. Regarding extraordinary effort, you know that the company's So one thing is like to have a one off moment that was what happened in 2020 to us. Another thing is like you need to Continue in a company, you need to continue, let's say, try and let's say to improve, to improve your structures, to improve What you have to do to adapt yourself to the market, to adapt yourself to the needs.

And then obviously, this is not only CIMIC. This is OPIEF and the SACS and all the companies, this is what we can say the standard part. And the different question It's a one off problem. And then if you look back to the senior presentation, they are not really We're seeing special things for this year and I think that they are very positive, but realistic. If you look at the presentation, I think They said that they consider that the guidance were Really, really positive and then in a way that they said that even a little bit conservative.

Speaker 3

And Nicholas, hi. Just to follow-up and underline, obviously, in our Americas business, 90% over 90 And the revenues in 2020 were generated by Turner, so that's the key driver there. Thanks.

Speaker 5

Thank you. As far in competition, I was a lot less worried on Turner, A little bit more, let's say, on maybe on the infra side, on fixed cost contracts but also on the tendering. That's why it was maybe more question for on the fatar and salary of the business. Smaller revenues, maybe a bit larger

Speaker 1

The next question today comes from Beltran Palazuelo of Santa Lucia Asset Management.

Speaker 6

Good afternoon, everybody. Congratulations for the results. Regarding the guidance you gave for this year 2021 and the all, let's say, the 3 areas, Americas, FIMIC and Europe were, let's say, you gave perfect guidance, but the only, let's say, part you did not give too much information was For Abertis, exactly for the guidance to be made, exactly more or less what do you expect from For Albertis and then regarding Albertis, if you could give us a little landscape or what should we expect from 2021 From Investment Opportunities?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, look, The indication that we've given is that we expect our Abertis investment to return To profitability, but obviously, everything is going to depend on the COVID, how COVID Develops and evolves over the year and the timing of eventual restriction easing, Etcetera, that's all we can give you, I think, at this stage of the year.

Speaker 6

Okay. And regarding opportunities, investment opportunities for Abertis.

Speaker 9

Yes. I mean,

Speaker 3

look, they announced These two very significant investments in 2020. There was €1,500,000,000 investment by equity in equity by Abertis in Redecare de las Diosi Rente in RCO, And that was for its 53% stake. And then right at the end of the year, November, that was the Announcement of the acquisition along with Manulife of the Elizabeth River Crossings Concession, and that's one in which Abertis will have a 55% Investments, 100 percent equity with EUR 1,000,000,000 there and Abertis will have 55%. And that's another major investment And it's a 58 year concession and only 8 years so far gone in that concession. So there's another 50 years to go.

And so we're constantly screening the market for opportunities as they arise and That process will continue, no doubt.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you very much for the information.

Speaker 1

As there are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call back for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Okay, operator. Thank you very much. If there are no more questions, I think we'll leave it there. And I'll pass you back to Marcelino just for farewell. Thank you.

Thank you very much everyone.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you very much Thank you all of you for attending this conference call and then good luck and take care under the current situation and I will see you in the next presentation or next quarterly presentation. Thank you very much and bye bye.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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