Welcome to analyst and investors conference call of Medios AG. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Thomas Meier, CEO.
Good morning everyone to this revision of guidance call. I'm together with Stefan Bauerreis, our CFO. As you know, we released an ad hoc last night and a press release on the revision of our guidance. We now appreciate the opportunity to talk to you directly and take your questions. We have prepared three slides, which I will lead you through before we go to the Q&A session. On this first slide, we see the expected development of revenues in 2026. On the left side, you see our external revenue in H1 2026. You can see the specialty supply grew with 8.5%. Also our patient-specific therapy field, 8.5%. We have 6.9% international business growth. Overall, this means that growth in all operational segments is present with slightly lower growth rates in the international business compared to the other segments.
To the second part of our revision of guidance, the EBITDA. Here we list the reasons for the lowering of the guidance. The contributor is pharmaceutical supply. We have price pressure on specific high-margining medicines in the market and see that to continue in H2 2026. We now have, in addition, the implication of the new law, GKV-Beitragssatzstabilisierungsgesetz, with a negative impact on the profitability of the cannabis flowers business due to the type of reimbursement. We assume that those changes in the law will be effective already in the second half of 2026. Our international business over the last month has seen pressure on profitability in some specific fields. We expect a negative impact on the performance in H2 2026. Improvement measures are in implementation phase. We expect positive impact in 2027. Patient-specific therapies, we expect margin improvements due to cost optimization measures.
That's our Avanti-Medios cost control and reduction program. One action we already took is the closure of Aschaffenburg site. We continue to deliver all customers from different locations. Putting this all together, we revise guidance here. We see a revenue now in the range of EUR 2.1 billion-EUR 2.16 billion. An EBITDA of EUR 88 million-EUR 92 million. What we do as a management team, we continue to focus on operational excellence. We see growth in our margins. We have compounding as a main area of future development. With that, we are open for questions. I would like to remind you that, of course, we need to remain on the topic of this revision. We are happy to answer your questions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star nine and pound key on your telephone keypad. If you would like to revoke your question, press star three and pound key. You can also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question by phone. The first question is from Michael Kuhn from Deutsche Bank. Mr. Kuhn.
Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Essentially, just on the reasons or, let's say, the magnitude behind the reasons of the warning. One of the reasons you mentioned is medical cannabis. I think something that you entered just relatively recently. I would have thought that is a pretty marginal business. Maybe you, let's say, assumed pretty substantial growth this year. Maybe you could just split the effects behind the profit warning for us so that we have a little better idea what was, let's say, the main trigger.
Stefan, would you like to answer?
Yeah. I can take that over. Mr. Kuhn, I'm happy to give you a little bit more insight on that perspective. It is correct that the cannabis business started this year just in our sales that we are doing. We had, I think, a good start in the first quarter, mainly focusing on Germany. Here, specific additional growth was predicted for the second half of the year. We're talking here about, let's say a middle digit, one single million euro numbers or middle to higher single million euro number in terms of sales that we potentially will lose depending on what will come with that new law.
We know that the reimbursement will be stopped. All what we see and all what we get as information is that there will not an intermediate phase of until end of the year, but it will be effective more or less immediately. That is the reason why we have to take that out. It's also correct that they are the margins that we are expecting are higher than in our standard business of pharmaceutical supplies, which is, therefore, the cannabis for us is a nice business. Cannabis will not stop completely, to make that clear. There will remaining business available. When we have a look at other markets outside Germany. Also here, to be clear and crisp, major sales and major market as of today is, for us, the German market.
Here we will see have a big threat and that's why we had to reduce this impact. Overall, that is a lower EUR 1 million numbers in terms of EBITDA missing than for the second half of the year in the perspective. The bigger one is in that area, and you probably know that from the first quarter, we already showed that here, that we have high-margin products, where we originally thought that this is more or less a temporary impact, that pricing will stabilize there quite soon. At the end, this does not materialize. What we now can see and therefore, all this impact of improvement that we thought to get in the second half of the year will not come and will remain on the same level than in the first quarter or in the first half of the year.
When we're talking here about that is this margin reduction is obviously of higher level, and all of that has a smaller EUR 1 million digit impact on profitability for the second half of the year for Medios. Our previous forecast or planning or assumption was that with all the development of the new businesses, obviously second half of the year is all the profitability and growth are a little bit back-end loaded. Here we now have two pressures that will continue in the second half of the year, which leads to that new view on the situation with pharmaceutical supplies. I hope this answers a little bit your question.
Thank you.
Yeah, I think that.
That's clear.
That was quite clear.
I.
Sorry.
Important to notice that the lion's share of warning or reduction comes from this pharmacy supply business and only a smaller piece is in the international business.
Yeah.
The next question is from Simon Scholz, First Berlin. Mr. Scholz?
Good morning. Most of my question was already answered by the. Can you hear me?
Yes, we hear you.
Hear you.
I just wanted to ask about how price pressure is developing in pharmaceutical supply and also in the patient-specific therapies business. You said that the main cause of, or you've indicated the main cause of the downgrade to full-year guidance is pharmaceutical supply. But how does price pressure in PST compare with pharmaceutical supply? Because I think you're seeing price pressure in PST as well, which is why you initiated this rationalization measure in Aschaffenburg.
Simon, it's that we had faced price regulation end of last and that was hitting us substantially in the first quarter. We are working our way through. We have volume growth in the business and we are working on operational excellence measures and see a realignment or turnaround of that situation. We believe that this is for the long term, and we will continue to have a good value proposition for our customer in the PST business by managing costs and optimizing how we produce those patient-specific formulations.
Okay. Thanks very much.
Yeah, perhaps, to add one sentence. Like in a lot of other industry, also here we are faced with patient-specific therapies with price pressure for sure. On the other side, I think, and that is the message also what you can see in the press release is that, from our perspective, the margin in that area is improving due to those continuous optimization impacts that we are doing. That is also a little bit the message behind that for the future, that this is a normal process that you can see that in a lot of other industries.
Times of continuous price increases are over in all industries, therefore the activity has to rely, and that is what we are focusing absolutely, is on the operational excellence of our operations, and that will help us to compensate the existing price pressure that we see in the market for us and our competitors.
Okay. You said PST, the margin of PST will be better in the second half than in the first half because of the rationalization measures you've taken. Do you expect the margin to be better in 2027 versus 2026?
Let's say the following, because we would like this call really much to split between what is now our forecast for the full year 2026, not to dive in already in the half-year numbers. I know that this is on the timing side, not so easy now, but we should focus. That's why let me answer your question perhaps a little bit differently. Our expectation for the second half of the year is that we are back in patient-specific therapies. We will be back on the margin that we see or that we have in our own plannings, and therefore improved compared to the first quarter, which is published. Therefore, yes, for the second half of the year, I can confirm that this will improve compared to first quarter.
Now I leave it up to your interpretation, and perhaps a surprise for the August 12th, what then is in the second quarter happening. Also here we have to know our restructuring, which is Aschaffenburg, is effective from July onwards. Nevertheless, it's not only restructuring Aschaffenburg, it's also operational excellence that we are doing. Therefore, we believe for the second half of the year, significant improvements compared to Q1. From that, the second quarter, we will explain you then on August 12th, if that is okay for you.
Yes, that's okay. Thank you once again.
Sure.
Dear participants, as a quick reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star nine and pound key on your telephone keypad. If you would like to revoke your question, press star three and pound key. You can also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question by phone. The next question is from Mr. Michael Heider, Berenberg Bank.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a question on your Operation Excellence Program. The first measure seems to have been the closure of the Aschaffenburg laboratory. Can you elaborate a little bit, what costs are associated with this, and what kind of savings you're expecting from the measure? Then maybe, can you give hints on what else are you planning in the Operation Excellence Program? Are there further measures you can talk about already? Is there more room for network optimization, for example? Would be my first question. I'm not sure whether we are allowed to ask more than one, but that would be my first one.
Michael. That's correct that optimization of the network is something that we are working and thinking about very actively, Aschaffenburg was the first step into that direction. Optimization of network can come in different shapes and forms. It's not absolutely defined what are the next step, but it's one of our main target is to increase utilization at the sites and optimize capital allocation within the network in Germany and specifically, but also in the Netherlands. The Operational Excellence Program, as such, has a list of activities that are maybe a little bit less visible or glamorous, in terms of how we plan and communicate and quite generally transform the business from a more pharmacy-steered business to a more industrial-scale manufacturing process network. That's where the focus is.
Those measures are getting shaped as we talk, and that will be a program that will run continuously for the foreseeable future, with clear milestones and targets, of course.
Thanks. Can you maybe quantify a bit on Aschaffenburg?
I don't think we want to break out those numbers. We gave you the guidance we see that that's included there.
Okay
We cannot give you distinct numbers here.
Okay. Maybe if I may, on the international business, I think this was, to be honest, the largest surprise because we hear from competitors that they're doing quite well in these specific markets. Can you here give a little bit more details what exactly led to this slower development and what you expect there for the future? Do you think that's a sustainable change in the market or just a temporary issue? Yeah, just some more details here maybe.
To my understanding, the growth in the market is present. We had a little bit slower growth than in the other two segments. The pressure on profitability here is more like internal adjustments we need to make after having those companies acquired to lead them into a more profitable execution phase. Again, similar things are of the order. It's about quality, it's about operational excellence, so that we control our cost structure and have a better profitability and can also make a more interesting offer to the market. Those are the priorities for the international business.
What kind of margin do you think you can achieve in the international business in the midterm?
I'm not sure we have broken that out, Ceban was certainly an acquisition that will help the margin profile of the, I call it now, old Medios.
Yeah.
It should be a margin that's slightly above what we see in Germany.
Maybe really last one from my side. Oh, sorry. Yes.
Now, perhaps to add here. We show on a quarterly result level the results of the different segments, and also you can see the result of the international segment. First, that is just echoing what Thomas already said, that is not that we say we do not grow. We have a growth rate of around 7% in the first half of the year. Let's say this growth rate will not disappear because on the other side, we also said that we will increase our guidance in terms of the sales with a non-growing international businesses would not be doable. First of all, that is on the market perspective. Second, yes, there are some topics, mainly also with some suppliers, where we are in negotiations, where we have to get in and optimize our cost structure.
These are not, let's say, a complete new view on a market. These therefore are operational challenges that we are facing and that we are working on and we will solve. Therefore, there is, as of now, not a view that the margins that we currently have or historically have will significantly change. They will not grow into the sky. I would say with this quite good margin that we are already showing as of now, historically, I think that is a good basis also for the future.
Thanks. Then really last one, what is your expectation on operating cash flow for the full year?
You know that the operating cash flow is not an information that we are guiding as of now. Therefore, please understand that I cannot give you here a concrete number because then it would be a clear guidance on that. For us, the focus is on these topics on sales and on EBITDA pre, what we are guiding. Also here we will continue. There are some seasonalities in the free cash flow development that is business as normal and nothing that will make us nervous. At the end of the day, we will continuously try optimizing ourself in not jeopardizing the capacity of Medios Group in generating cash. I think it's not answering your question exactly after on a certain amount of money. Sorry, but I cannot do that as of now.
That is what we're currently doing and the cash generating capability of Medios Group will maintain.
All right. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Thank you.
Next question is from Mr. Maarten Verbeek from The IDEA!.
Good morning. It's Maarten Verbeek of The IDEA!. One or two questions. Firstly, you mentioned high margin products within the pharmaceutical supply segment. How do you define high margin products? Is that an EBITDA margin of more than 6% or how should I look at that?
In the pharmaceutical supply business, we have different margin profile verticals that we are executing and we have seen pressure compared to last year on this high margin vertical that we have. That is also to some level a little bit unpredictable. It's something that happened and those products can achieve really substantially higher margins than what we have for the compounded business, around 3%. They're substantially higher. That's why this is relatively painful and it influences the margin result of the group.
Yeah, therefore I mentioned 6%, which is double more or less the amount on average. That's more or less a level we should look at as being defined as high margin?
Of course, for trading business, 6% is a very good margin and as I said, there are verticals in there that depending on how it goes, really achieve such levels. Yeah.
If then, how much do these high margin products contribute to revenue as a percentage? Could you provide more categories like the cannabis you mentioned?
Yeah, cannabis is also in there. Of course, we say pharmacy specialty supply. We are trying to identify markets that are interesting and being active in there, our team has a very good track record in doing that. We cannot break them out individually, all of them. That's a bit of the picture that we are giving here. Yes.
Could you also provide some kind of guidance how much these product categories contribute to revenue of the pharmaceutical supply segment?
I couldn't do that on top of my head, no.
Okay. Thanks so much.
Yeah, thanks. One quick follow-up on the price or margin pressure in pharmaceutical supply. Is that more a function of more aggressive competitor behavior? Is that input factor costs that you cannot pass on? Is the reimbursement topics included? Just to get a little better understanding on that one. Thank you.
No, I think it's very straightforward supply and demand questions that are driving the lion's share of revision we had there, in addition to cannabis.
It's not a regulation and reimbursement issue. It's a question of how much availability of the product is in the market, and what is the demand at the end of the day of those who need it. That is the major point which comes across.
Right. Thank you.
It has nothing to do with competitors, has nothing to do with reimbursement changes. It has to do more with the strategy and availability in the market of those products from the producer. This can change. That's why also categorization of those products, it's not that we say, "Okay, one category of products or market is now reducing another." It's not categorizing those business. It's depending product by product, where we there are, and what is the availability in the market of certain medicines. Okay.
Just a quick reminder, if you still would like to ask a question, you can press star nine and pound key on your telephone keypad. I repeat, star nine and pound key. You could also use the dial-in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question via the phone.
Doesn't seem to be the case. Thank you very much for your questions and your time. We have the next date on the 12th of August where we will present our half-year numbers. Then there's the Capital Markets Day coming up on the 29th of September, where we'll put this in perspective of our business and our ambition going forward. I wish you a nice day, and hope to see you soon again.