JDC Group AG (ETR:JDC)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 31, 2023

Operator

Good afternoon. On behalf of Montega, welcome to the earnings call of the JDC Group Aktiengesellschaft regarding the preliminary fiscal figures of the financial year 2022. The CEO, Dr. Sebastian Grabmaier, and CFO, Ralph Konrad, will give you a presentation on the results in a minute. Afterwards, there will be enough time for our Q&A session. Question can be asked by audio line or chat. We are looking forward to the results, and I hand over to Dr. Grabmaier.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Thank you very much, Ms. Pultz. Very warm welcome from the side of the board members of JDC Group. With me in the line is Ralph Konrad. My name is Sebastian. As you know, I'm co-founder and CEO of JDC Group, responsible for strategy, procurement of products, sales and IR. Ralph.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

My name is Ralph Konrad. I'm responsible for finance, IT, and the operations department.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

The man behind the tech is Ralf Funke, also the corresponding representative for IR in the financial department. A short wrap up who we are. You all might know us, but maybe there's some new investors here in the line. We are JDC, that's the leading tech stack for the processing of insurance contracts and processes in the German market.

What we do is we take in the data of more than 220 insurance groups, all the asset management platforms, alternative product providers, the mortgaging banks. We standardize the data and then we process it, and then we show all the data in our own visualizing systems or via an API structure.

We deliver the data to the systems of our clients, who are all kinds of individual brokers and agents, more and more the German banks, the insurance companies themselves, other InsurTech, FinTech companies, or exclusive sales organizations.

Right now we have about 4.2 million contracts and data sets on the platform, and we earn money by receiving the recurring cash flows behind these little contract streams. We not only receive the data of the insurance companies, but also the on average EUR 35 that are like a trailer fee in the fund industry following the contracts that are sitting on our platform. The value is driven by our tech stack and the relationships to our product providers. On the next slide, please.

Yes, you might have seen our publication from this morning. Yeah, we think the year has been very difficult, as you could see by, and that's what we called it, a divided year. After the breakout of the Ukraine-Russian War, we were, well, expecting the turnover to go down as the consumer confidence was decreasing in a, yeah, increasing speed.

We were very surprised March, and April and also May that the turnover was still up, but then we could see that there was a decrease in the H2 of the year especially. All in all, we have to be content that despite the very difficult market conditions, we can see growth both in turnover and also in EBITDA.

Just to show you the numbers, turnover growth is up 6.3% from EUR 156.1 million. Also the EBITDA rises from EUR 8.3 million to EUR 8.9 million, so up 7.4%. Maybe on the next slide, you can see that it looked much better in the H1 . That was surprisingly good. We were up 18% in the end of half year, and also EBITDA was growing 25%, 24%. We could see that i H2 it became more and more difficult during the summer times.

What's more depressing I think for consumers is not the fact of the war itself, but more the growing and rising interest rates and also the increase of the inflation. We can now recall the situation in November, December when households were not sure how to pay the gas bills and how to budget or to keep the budget of the household.

This is why we gave a earnings warning in November, where we said, we don't think there will be much of a year-end business that we usually have and experience in the financial markets, especially in the life insurance and health insurance sector.

You can now see that it also in fact did not take place, and the turnover for the first time in a half year for many, many half years was down. We were happy that it was only 4% in the end, in the H2 year, down from EUR 78.2 million to EUR 75.1 million. Also EBITDA was a little bit more down from EUR 4 million and EUR 3.5 million.

You will see when you look at the sectors that our main sector, the Advisortech section, is not as hit by this development as the advisory part that are closer to the clients and also are a lot dependent on consumer confidence. Ralph.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Yes, if you look at the composition of turnover, you can see that a very good development, that EUR 6.3 million of the growth, which is 27.6%, is coming from our major customers. This is what we always said, that the major customer business will be the main growth driver in the future, up to now, our business was mainly driven from the IFA business, and you can also see the churn of our direct customers, which can be seen year by year. In this year, as Sebastian said, also the advisory segment was down a little bit.

The reason, as told is, the missing customer confidence. We go to the next slide, please. We have to say that overall we had a weak quarter, a weak Q4 affected by the buying reluctance of consumers. Missing customer confidence affected the business mainly in the advisory segment. That's the bad news.

We had a stable development of current P&C, but in the Q4, a sharp reduction of the sales in life and one-time investment old age provision products. There was almost no business in real estate and mortgage, mainly November and December.

That's also the end of bad news because good news is that we had a very, very strong start into the year 2023 with a absolute all-time high in transfer contracts in January. We had approximately 50,000 contracts that wanted to be transferred onto the JDC platform, which is a growth of more than 100%. Also the new applications means new products sold via the JDC platform in January were up by 25%. This comparison is to a pre-Ukraine war level.

You can see that we are after a dip in the H2 year, we are back on track, and we will see further growth in the year 2023. Back to the Q4, revenue was down by 7.7%. Gross profit was stable, which is a good development.

And that is the reason why EBITDA only declined by EUR 300,000 from EUR 3 million to EUR 2.7 million. All over the year, as Sebastian mentioned, the revenues were up 6.3% and EBITDA was up 7.4% to EUR 8.9 million, which is at the upper end of our reduced guidance that we gave you in November. Okay.

Let's go one step deeper into the Advisortech segment. Here we can see, I think a good development also in the Q4. Revenue were down by 4.6%, if you take in mind what we said before, that revenues and market in the life insurance business were down by 40%-50% in November and December, this is a good development.

Even better that we were able to increase gross profits because we were able to bill higher IT fees, especially to our major clients. EBITDA in the Q4 was up from EUR 2 million-EUR 2.6 million, which is a plus of 34%.

Over the total fiscal year, we saw growth in turnover of 10% and a growth in EBITDA of 25%. Not what we expected at the beginning of the year, overall in this environment, we think this is a remarkable performance of our Advisortech business. Yeah.

To give you some more flavor, we showed you this slide in the last earnings call the first time. You can see how our recurring revenues developed year over year over year. This is the green line in the left box. You can see that also in this really difficult year, recurring revenues were increasing by 10%, which is approximately EUR 7 million.

Which is more on the platform year over year over year for the next years. In the upper blue box, you can see the annual increase of one-off commissions. That's what we said. We had 2 weak years. The first was the corona year, 2020, and the second, even a little bit weaker in the growth of new business, was this, yeah, post Ukraine War or Ukraine War year 2023.

Overall, JDC's assets, asset base is growing permanently, and this will help us and underline our future growth. Okay, let's go to the advisory business. As mentioned, the business was more affected by the actual situation.

Revenues were down by 13.3% in the Q4 from EUR 9.5 million to EUR 8.3 million, driven by the missing sales of real estate mortgages and life insurance, leading to an EBITDA decline from EUR 1.8 million to EUR 0.8 million. Not so big in actual figures, if you look at the percentage, it's a minus of 56%, which is a sharp decline in the Q4. This over the full fiscal year leads to a decline in turnover of around EUR 1 million from EUR 35.7 million-EUR 34.7 million, sorry.

To a decline in EBITDA from EUR 3.4 million to EUR 2.6 million, which is a decrease of 23.4%. Yes, we showed you this slide last time, for the first time here with the full year figures. We can see that in the past if we had a weaker year in the advisory business, normally this is followed by a rebound year. We could see this in the year 2020 where revenues were down because of the corona situation. We had a huge rebound and a growth by approximately 20% in the following year.

Now we saw a rebound again in the fiscal year 2022. We think there are good first indications that we will see a rebound in the year 23 as well. Okay, let's have a look at the development of our funds, cash and liabilities. We changed the presentation a little bit to make it better comparable for you. We started with funds of EUR 21.9 million at the beginning of the year. At the end of the year, funds on hand, cash on hand were EUR 16.7 million, which is a decline of EUR 5.4 million. But it's not the fact that we that we lose cash. We produce cash.

The reason for the decline is that in total, we invested EUR 9 million in own shares and for a past M&A transaction deferred payments. Out of the EUR 9 million, around about EUR 3 million for our own shares and round about EUR 6 million as deferred payments for former M&A transactions. There's only one payment left. We have to pay another EUR 2.5 million or EUR 2.4 million in the middle of 2023 for MORGEN & MORGEN, but this is the last payment and then all transactions, excluding Top Ten, are fully paid out of our own cash resources.

Okay, maybe one further comment on the bond, still stable at around about 100% quote. The bond is due at the end of next year, 2024, we will start discussions about the renewal of the bonds in these days. We have very good feedback, very good first feedback and interest of some banks to do the emission for us. There, maybe there will be some more news during the course of this year. Price was price of the share was EUR 17.30 yesterday evening, which is a market cap of around about EUR 230 million.

Shares, own shares on hand now are 690,000 own shares now. In the shareholder structure, there's no news. We now have 5% own shares. Management still has 11.1% shares. No development in this area. Market cap, as mentioned, is EUR 230 million-EUR 240 million right now.

We will give you some spotlights. Maybe just one step back. We will show you some news of the development of the Sparkassen-Versicherungsmanager that will be of interest of you, for you. Give you an update on the joint venture with Bain Capital.

We have done a customer survey with very interesting results. We will give you some spotlight on the discussions about a possible European ban on commissions, which you can read in the newspaper. Maybe some of you have questions on this and give you some more flavor on our acquisition of Top Ten. Yes, the rollout of the Sparkassen-Versicherungsmanager is on a good way. Actually right now, I'm sitting in a hotel in Dortmund where we have a conference of the Einfach Gut Versichert GmbH. We have more than 40 savings banks here.

Some of us, I'm down talking to insurers, talking to us about how to roll out the Sparkassen-Versicherungsmanager. We now have more than 50 savings banks that have signed the contract. What's really a very important and good news for us is that we signed a contract with the biggest savings bank in the Provinzial region, which is the Kreissparkasse Köln.

Kreissparkasse Köln has more than 1 million customers right now, EUR 30 billion assets in the balance sheet, 3,000 employees, and thereof 800 or 900 salespeople. Karköln decided to transfer their existing insurance business, not only the new business, but all existing contracts onto the AGV, which means JDC platform.

They will work exclusively with us. This is a, let's say, big bang for the German Sparkassen savings banks area. I was looking into lots of prized eyes in this morning when we gave this news. Yeah, this is a very good development for us.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Good news from the side of our joint venture with Bain Capital and Great-West. As we recall, we started an operation together with these very big investors. In the end, they want to contribute EUR 150 million in equity. Parallel with some debt investments of several hundred million EUR that we have now in place to invest into the German broker market.

As you know, a lot of U.K. and U.S. private equity money is now pouring into the German market to start this consolidation that market specialists were talking about in the last decade. The top management is not only assigned, but they started work, first of December.

As CEO, we could hire the former head of broker business of Allianz Insurance, as you know, the by far biggest insurance group in Germany, Michael Schliephake. COO is Stephan Ommerborn. He was the former CEO and founder of ONE Insurance. That's the startup insurance company of wefox. There's another two M&A specialists.

They're all working in my office next to me. We have a very deep insight. They're traveling now a lot as they see the first targets. There's a full pipeline, and we expect the first transaction to be closed in or at least signed in April. Markus Nagel is the president, the head of the advisory board, who's known to many in the market as the last CEO of Zurich Group in Germany.

Yeah, we deliver all the platform services. The service contract is signed with Summitas, it's an exclusive agreement that all of the turnover of the new targets that we acquire go via the JDC platform. As you know, at normal margins, there should be an EBITDA margin of 10% on the turnover of the target companies, which is also a very good growth path that will happen starting in 2023. Also it's not reflected in our plannings and guidance. That comes on top of whatever we give you as a prospect on the development of our company.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Okay. We did very recently we asked our customers how happy they are with JDC, the platform, the product variety, and so on and so on. You can see here overall, from very bad to very good, means from 1 to 5 points, we had an overall evaluation of 4 points, which is from our point of view, very good.

Because we did not only ask actual brokers, we also asked the brokers that left the platform, and as you can imagine, that the results then are not as good as with the current brokers. Overall product variety, IT services, quality of broker and customer service. Oh, there's an "and" missing. Sorry. Friendliness of staff, speed and quality of processing, speed and quality of billing. We have a very good service, evaluated by our customers.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Yeah. Another spotlight we want to address is the European Commission ban that was in Handelsblatt and some other newspapers in the last weeks. There is one lady, EU Commissioner Mairead McGuinness, who is, yeah, putting up this discussion inside of the EVP party. It's, as we all know, a socialist dream to ban all commissions and have products cheaper in the market.

Well, if you ask a German population, if you want cars at 20% cheaper or insurance 10% cheaper, everybody was raised their hands. As we know, other European countries show that it might not be the best idea, as people then are not serviced anymore, as happened in the UK or other countries like Netherlands, who banned the commissions on P&C contracts.

There's an internal discussion inside of the EVP party. On the other side, there's Manfred Weber. This is the gentleman who should have become head of the commission instead of Ursula von der Leyen, if he was not male and of the CSU faction, the Bavarian part of the Christian Democrat Party. He also defended our industry in 2013, where there was a proposal of the European Commission to ban commission and which did not go through the parliament at that stage. This is a repeat story of yeah, positions within the EU.

As there is a Retail Investment Strategy to be proposed in May or June this year, then this commissioner, Mrs McGuinness, wanted to introduce a Commission ban, which is still possible, but not really likely because the Commission also is ran by the EPP party that in the majority is against the ban.

Maybe if she does strong campaigning, as she wants to run for Irish vice president or as a second term as EU Commissioner, it could be in the proposal. It's very important to know that the way how these directives are created within the European legal system.

All these very important things that infringe on the rights of co-companies or individuals have to pass this so-called trilogy system. There has a vote, not only in the Commission, but also in the European Parliament and in the European Council.

The council consists of the individual member states and you need a quorum of 55% of the member states, representing 65% of the EU population. Even if there would be a proposal, which is not, it is possible but unlikely, the majority vote of the European Parliament will be against this Commission ban as it was same situation, 2013, 2014.

EPP President Manfred Weber is strongly against it and also replied to the letter to Mairead McGuinness in a very strong decline of her proposal. Even if, what you never can really close out with 100%, if the European Parliament changes their mind and would also follow a proposal like that, which we don't think is possible, then in the European Council, all the bigger member states said they don't want that.

Italy, France, Germany are against it, but already there's public resentment by countries Italy, Austria, Hungary, Luxembourg, and many more. Even if Germany does not vote with the majority, then there will be no majority in the European Council.

It's very, very unlikely that all of these three steps can be passed, it will most probably stay a socialist dream and not a reality in the European background. We're very close to that. As you know, we do association work. I'm a board member of the Association of German Sales Companies, my colleague Martin Klein is at this time heading the European Association. We're very close to this development. We're definitely looking at the discussion, but as we said, we're very well informed. We don't think this is going through. Ralph Konrad. I can do this as well if you want.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Yes.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

As you know, we acquired a company that used to be, or let's say the founders used to be part of our company in the last, or let's say, the last millennium. There was the Top Ten was the Top Ten representatives of Dr. Jung & Partner, which is now merged into JDC Pool GmbH, and they developed a quite nice financial network group that we acquired in January. Why is it not represented in our figures yet? As you might know, financial institutions need the consent of the German regulators, so they have a lot of formal documentation that they afford.

At the end, there's a 3 months deadline on which normally the regulators just does not oppose a transaction like this. We think that somewhere in Q3, maybe beginning of Q4, Top Ten will be consolidated in our figures.

That's an interesting acquisition as it will increase our revenues of about EUR 20 million in a full calendar year and also our earnings of at least EUR 1 million. There is some synergies also because the 3 operative Top Ten companies that we bought correspond with JDC companies and just can be merged into the JDC companies. It's a very good fit with at least half a million EUR in synergies.

Maybe if you can also switch our formal IT platform for the investment side, there could be another half a million EUR in synergies. The price was not very high. It was a favorable price to all of you because in the end, we buy between 5 and 6 times, which is basically some, I think a good deal in the market.

The good thing is, there is no dilution, no additional debt. We just pay this out of our running cash flow. Let's come to the guidance. Some of us asked us why would you reduce the guidance at the beginning of November if you don't know how the year-end business runs?

In the end, I think we gave you our gut feelings that we don't think under the environment or we didn't think in November that there would be a year-end business. As you can see now of the figures today, I think we were quite right in our, yeah, best guessing. The adjusted guidance 2022 was a turnover of EUR 155 million-EUR 165 million.

You see that we're rather on the lower end in 2022 as especially last 2 weeks in December when the gas crisis was at their peak and the customer confidence as was, I think, at the lowest in the historical figures ever. The turnover just reached EUR 156.1 million, which is inside of the guidance.

I think the good news and the very good news is that, as these new business, especially life insurance business, has the lowest margin on our platform, the earnings development was not that bad. The adjusted guidance 2022 was EUR 7.5 million-EUR 9 million, and with EUR 8.9 million, we almost exceeded this guidance. We're on the very upper end of the earnings guidance, which, as we're all investors, I think that's a good figure to look at. Also, if you look at the.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Maybe, Sebastian, sorry, maybe let me add, I forgot this in my presentation, that we had round about EUR 300,000 costs for the M&A transactions, legal due diligence and so on and so on. If you would normalize this, then, at the end, we would have been end up at EUR 9.2 million. Sorry.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

We can see that this is not whatever architected or it's even conservative, as we could have shown some data on top. If you look at the goals that we gave you for 2022, we are almost there. As Ralf showed you, the rollout of further savings banks in the Provinzial region, that's picked up speed. There's another 25 to 30 of them, which will be coming until the middle of this year. As you might have read, there was one interview where 70 should have been there in January. Now it's more than 50, we are on a good track there.

Also the existing partnerships, you could see that there is a strong pickup in the business of our major clients and also our profitability ratios, they go up. This, we developed quite nicely. There's further major customers.

Gothaer just rolls out the platform to their 1,200 agencies, which is a lighthouse project for all the other insurance companies in the market, as this 360 degree view of the customer on his insurance portfolios now also takes part not only in the broker channel and the banking channel, but also will arrive in the exclusive channels of the insurance companies, which still represents 50% of the market. We're the first stronghold there with the first top 15 insurer using this for their exclusivity network.

We are happy that Ecclesia, the very biggest broker in the market, with more than EUR 300 million turnover, so market leader broker in Germany, the broker of the German Catholic churches and the Protestant churches, is now our client. The technical development of the JDC platform really advances well.

You can now see that from everything people write in the market, we're definitely one of the market leaders, if not the market leading tech platform on the market, especially with all major clients and bigger clients. Until now, we still win every tender out there. The only point that's there's still not a positive result is our shareholder, VKB, that still is negotiating the contract with us.

It's not that there's economic reasons for that, but well, the lawyers have to be happy. There is some little like niche problems that we still will solve in the next weeks, and therefore we are very confident also this little dot in our very wide west will be on the green side very soon. Yes. That's what we showed you. We are inside our guidance that we gave you in November. This next slide is interesting you even more. What do we see for the near future?

If we give you out the guidance in 2023, coming from a turnover of EUR 156.1 million, we will grow 12%-24% to EUR 175 million-EUR 190 million. On average, that's a 17% growth, I think, against the background that consumer confidence is not yet at the peak again.

It's growing, and we see normalized figures for February, March. As Ralf said, order volume is picking up. Transfer of contracts is doubling almost. We think we are on a good track concerning this very strong recovery. We will also see recovery in the advisory segment and I think that's also figures also earnings development was not that bad with EUR 8.9 million.

We think there will be even a stronger increase to EUR 11.5 million-EUR 13 million. There we are on a very good growth track. As you can see, our cost side is quite flattish. There will be some inflation on human resources and personal costs, as you can see surely enough, the unions are on the demand side, so demanding some more cash, especially and earnings for the, for especially our IT and very like the higher up processing personal. As the margin's growing much more, we are quite confident on the EBITDA side that it will be a strong increase. Maybe Ralf, goals for 2023?

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Yes. We have set some quality goals. The first is that we of course, want to develop our bank insurance business further on. I think we are on a good way of this. Our plan is to have at least 3, better 5 acquisitions at Summitas, and we'll have the first turnover on the JDC platform. We are at the moment launching our corporate benefit platform called Plug-InSurance. We told you about this some months ago. This should be a very successful start. This is our goal for 2023. Of course, we have to integrate Top Ten after the approval of BaFin after the so-called owner control procedure.

That's, that may be, is important to mention is a reason why we are guiding at a range of EUR 50 million in turnover, EUR 175 million-EUR 190 million, because today we don't know when the owner control procedure will be done. We think it's Q3, but it can also be Q4. As a result, the contribution of Top Ten is, let's say EUR 6 million or EUR 7 million in turnover, or maybe only EUR 2 million or EUR 3 million.

That depends on German authorities. Of course, we are heading for meaningful further developments of the IT platform, and we are day by day working on economies of scale. We want to reduce our cost per contract. We will show you at the end of the year 2023 that this will happen.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

As you can always read, there's a small disclaimer. I think we have a very stable business operation and business planning, and we can quite well. That's what you saw in the years past. We are very good in really showing you quite precise growth path when it comes to recurring revenue, that's quite clear. If you could see this slide that Ralf showed that it's not only growing, but growth is growing on the recurring revenue side. What's harder to tell is in forecast is the new business that can be up or down depending on the customer confidence. As Ralf showed you, mostly that comes in waves.

Whenever there is a decline, it's followed by an increase. Every big increase has happened end of 2021 is followed by a small decline. This is what, yeah, over a longer period, it's a upwards trend also. Short term, there can be some situation, as happened last November, December, where there is not a normal business as customer confidence is down.

To look at our development, look at our recurring side, and that's what the company will be built on, that we more and more and more collect and aggregate all these contracts and the small cash flows behind the contracts, and this adds up nicely and builds like a very big portion of our income in the future. Happy to take your questions now.

Operator

Thank you very much, Dr. Grabmaier and Mr. Konrad for the detailed presentation. We will now move over to the Q&A session. Questions can be asked by audio line or chat. If you would like to ask your question directly to the management, please raise your virtual hand. If you have dialed in by phone, please press the star key followed by 9 to enter the Q&A queue. You will be then asked to unmute yourself by pressing the star key followed by 6. We already received a few questions in our chat.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Yes.

Operator

Can you talk about your 5-year rough expectation for revenue and earnings from JDC?

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Yes, we can, but we don't like to, right? I think we did a good job in quite precisely fulfilling our guidance in the last years. It's the further you go in the future, obviously, the harder the future is to tell. What we gave you as a vision, it's that we think that, and we hold this up, is in 2025, it's rather conservative that EUR 250 million turnover and EUR 20 million EBITDA could be in our books. I think that's a growth rate of 17% on average. That's also our average guidance or average of a guidance 23. If you guys extrapolate this will be a normal growth of the company.

It could be way more as we could see of the potential. We told you about the Provinzial business planning that alone in the next years to come, with no certain real figure on this, could be EUR 100 million on top alone. I know there is a question on the development of R+V. That's the very big insurer number two in Germany that signed a contract last year with us and is now on a pilot phase of our platform with a cancellation rate in April. As we have the feedback that we hear is that the processes are running very well, and the project's running well.

We have some very affirmative email of the CEO and if nothing unexpected happens, we think that this is going into a rollout starting May on. As we said, there is a cancellation rate and we will tell you of this project more when this is not used. In May, I hope there or we're confident there is good news on the development of the platform in the cooperative banking side. Well, as you very recall, it's about 30% of the German banking market. The second very big banking organization next to the Sparkassen savings bank organization is the corporate bank.

It's, if you've listened to this, presentation from abroad, it's the orange and blue signs you see in every city in Germany, and the savings banks is the red signs in every city and village, in Germany. Ralf, maybe you want to add to that.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Yeah. There are some more questions in the chat. Maybe we can answer this quickly before our analysts raise their hands. First question is if there is a pipeline of corporate in-house brokers, yeah, to whom we talk. Yes, there are some more in-house brokers we talk and negotiate to, but nothing that we can publish right now. But we can say there is there's still interest and there are still corporate brokers outside that are checking cooperation with JDC and looking at our platform. The status R&D is answered, was answered by Sebastian. Next question is that you see a low incremental EBITDA margin in 2023. Yeah.

To be honest, I don't understand this question because the incremental margin, if you look at the lower end of the guidance, incremental EBITDA margin is 10%, and if you look at the upper end of the guidance, it's 15%. I don't think that this is a low incremental margin. Maybe you can ask more precisely or maybe explain what the question is in detail. The last question here in the chat is if there is a pipeline or a likelihood for further acquisitions, and if we could give a comment on the market consolidation, Sebastian.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Actually the main pipeline obviously is the one of Summitas Gruppe. As Ralph Konrad said, we expect the first transactions this year. We did not calculate this on top of our guidance. Whatever comes within Summitas Gruppe, first the companies have to be bought, then they have to be converted to platform.

We'll be happy if there's the first turnovers on the platform, but this is not included with big figures in our guidance yet. There can also be smaller acquisitions of contract portfolios or smaller brokers that on the private side we can still do via JDC. We don't see right now a very big acquisition because it's questionable whether it makes sense in this market environment.

When it comes to market consolidation, you could see that US and UK private equity in growing numbers come to the market. You could see 2 transactions in the last year. One is our main competitor, Fonds Finanz, is bought by Hg Capital that also with GGW have a aggregator for commercial brokers that started 2 and a half years ago, is quite successful in buying the brokers by numbers.

There is AnaCap that's backing MRHT, another aggregator company, which is successfully aggregating in the commercial broker market. Now Warburg Pincus have bought another main competitor of ours in the individual broker side, that's blau direkt. There is rumors that they will buy a very big fund pool also.

Both of these companies having quite big turnovers but low earnings margins and earnings. Then, yeah, you have to decide whether it's the one, the kind of targets you want to buy. If you look at our acquisitions, we always go to the earning side, and we want to buy well-earning companies and add on earnings to the platform and not really focus on the sole turnover side.

You can also see then with these players in the combination of platform technology plus private equity funding and also maybe some product provider support, there will be huge, yeah, let's say platform conglomerates that will dominate the market in the future.

If you look at the financial and mortgage side in Germany, where Hypoport took a more than 30% market share, and there's two other platforms that take another very big market share, and same goes for the Moventum platform side where Fidelity, Frankfurter Volksbank or eBase, which is FNZ, also have more than 50% of the market share in Germany.

The consolidation now starts heavily. But on the other side, it's a very fragmented market with more than 1,000 attractive targets, and that's what we want to achieve with Summitas. To buy 30 or 40 of these 1,000 should be a good plan. Yes, consolidation is starting. It will be a more oligopolistic play in the future, but it takes, yeah, more than a couple of years. I hope that was enough for your background.

Operator

Thank you very much. Just a quick reminder, if you still have questions left, you can ask them by audio line or by chat. We received a question from Benjamin Kornke. Please go ahead.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

We can hear you, Ben.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Ralph Konrad, Sebastian, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Let me start by maybe the 2023 guidance. I was wondering if you could provide a little more granularity with regard to the revenue composition. You alluded to a potential or likely rebound in advisory. Would it be fair that this business is going back to double-digit growth rates in 2023?

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Hmm. Good question. We hope so.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

To be honest, I think this is a realistic scenario to grow double digit. When you look at the new applications in the first 8 weeks of the year, then it looks like as we see a good growth in this segment. I think still the main growth driver is the Advisortech business. We see, we will see an increasing and bigger impact of the bank insurance business, which was still small in the last year. Yeah, we have new brokers every day on the platform. You know? The existing customers aggregate more contracts.

Existing brokers bring more customers to the JDC platform. We get more brokers, as customers. That's the basis of our growth. This is the main driver.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Maybe to elaborate this a little bit, Ben. As you know, about two-thirds of our business is recurring, right? From the two thirds, as 30% of our recurring or also overall business is investment funds, then the first factor is as the capital markets are almost close to peak standings, then we first have a rebound in the recurring side of the investment business.

If it comes to the recurring side of the insurance business, first there's inflation. As you will see that your building insurance will go up this year about 15%-20%. Your car insurance will go up 10% plus. Your health insurance will go up of 5%-10%. Inflation will drive recurring revenues, Just without doing much as our commission base is a fixed percentage of the premium.

As Ralf elaborated, the number of contracts on our platform is growing at increasing speed. We I think last year was, we don't have the final figures there, it's about 80% up from the year before in transfer of contracts. There's more than 230,000 contracts that was added on the platform by the transfer of contract processes and then on top comes the new business minus the churn.

There's a nice growth of the recurring business and then we think that the new business side is going back to normal without expecting like very high, yeah, rebound waves. Still a normal business would bring up at least our figures to more than double-digit growth.

Speaker 4

Well, thank you. That's, that's clear. Maybe shifting gears a little bit to the savings banks part of your business. It's great to hear that you're confident that you're gonna progress on the VKB side obviously. I was wondering what, I mean, to the extent you can say, are you baking in any sort of contribution from VKB into the 2023 targets?

Maybe more broadly, when you look at the, let's say, potential trajectory of VKB, sort of should we think about it as being similar to what you're experiencing now with Provinzial? Or, I mean, given, I hope all the good feedback from the Sparkasse and the Provinzial region, I could imagine it's, you know, could be significantly faster. Interested obviously in hearing your views.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

My view is that the first relevant turnover from VKB and the third big public insurers, SparkassenVersicherung, can be expected in 2024, you know? Because at first, you have to do the rollout of the business. Then after the savings bank have signed the contracts, then you have to do the rollout within the savings banks. You have to train the people.

You have to talk to them. You have to do conferences like we do today here in Dortmund. And that's the point where they begin to work with the platform. We will see a sharp increasing contribution of the savings banks in the Provinzial region in 2023, and the rest will follow in 2024.

Speaker 4

Okay. Very clear. Thanks, Ralph. My last question, kind of the usual you could say. Ralph, could you provide an update on MORGEN & MORGEN, please? Are you still happy with the performance? Anything unusual that happened in 2022?

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Yes, we are happy. The MORGEN & MORGEN contribution in turnover and profitability is as planned. I'm very excited because within the next, I think 2 weeks, we will offer a new product where we are able to compare old and existing tariffs with new tariffs in a very new and modern way. This could be a blockbuster product and will be another big feature for our JDC platform, but is also of high interest for all insurance companies and their exclusive sales forces. It's the so-called Alttarifvergleich. The old tariff comparison. Yes, we're happy.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you very much. We received another question from Sebastian Weitoner. Please go ahead.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

You're still on mute, Sebastian.

Speaker 4

Sebastian, please unmute yourself. Well, it seems that he has a little technical issue. If you have your question, please place it in the chat. We have another question: Has the M&A environment changed for you in the recent months?

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

May I answer, Sebastian?

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Sure. Sure.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Yes and no. No because there are still a lot of targets and a lot of brokers thinking about selling their company to a company like JDC. Yes, because with the start of the private equity money which is coming to Germany, of course the purchase prices are increasing. There's a... We would not be able to buy the same companies that we bought at the same price in the future. That's what we have to see.

Operator

Okay. Thank you very much. Regarding your customer structure, what % of sales do your three largest customer generate?

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

three largest is 20% out of EUR 150 million, EUR 55 million, or roughly 20%.

Operator

Okay. Thank you very much. Is advisory still a strategic core business for you, or are other options being considered here in the medium term?

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

We love this question because every 2 year when Advisory is down, everybody says, "Why do we have it? Should we sell it?" If it's in last year that it's up and it's even developing stronger than AdvisorTech, then everybody says, "Wow, that's a good idea. Why not buy more there?" We can understand this. It's a nice contribution to our business. It's our trying bed for all developments we have on the tech side, and over the long run, it also delivers nice earnings. There's no reason really to sell it.

As we grow faster, we will see, whether on one point of time we can dwarf the advisory segment by a strong growth by AdvisorTech, and I think that's the right point of time to really think of any development on that side. Right now we're very happy with it.

Ralph Konrad
CFO, JDC Group

Maybe in addition, this advisory business is one of the reasons why our platform is as good as it is because we know the needs of the advisors because we have advisors on our own. On the one hand you have this financial thing, EBITDA, multiple, and so on, growth, and so on. On the other hand, it's a kind of guarantee for platform quality for us.

Operator

Thank you very much. As it seems that there are no further questions, we will come to end. Thank you for your questions and thank you for your time answering them, Dr. Grabmaier and Mr. Konrad, and also for the detailed presentation. I will hand over for some final remarks to Dr. Grabmaier.

Sebastian Grabmaier
CEO, JDC Group

Yes. Thank you, Ms. Puetz. Thank you all for your trust into JDC Group. You can see that there is a very hardworking workforce and management behind JDC, working to deliver great figures. Sometimes, as you could see November, December, you cannot wait out the markets, but this is what Ralph also showed, and I think you can also read out of the figures that there will be a rebound in 2023, and with a very strong growth coming back to the market and also to our company.

We should expect not only an increase of growth, but the growing of growth. We can see when it just runs normal as in other consolidating platform markets. You could see that JDC is one of these very big decisive companies in the market taking acting from a pole position from the tech side. I think we have all what it takes and all the ingredients to really be one of the very, very big market players in the German insurance industry. Stay with us, trust us, and we're happy to report better figures in 2023.

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