MTU Aero Engines AG (ETR:MTX)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 16, 2022

Thomas Franz
VP of Investor Relations, MTU Aero Engines

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our conference call for MTU's preliminary full year results 2021. We will start with a business review presented by Reiner. Peter will give you the financial overview, a comparison to our 2021 guidance, and a more detailed look into our OEM and MRO segment. After that, Reiner shares his view on our guidance for 2022. This will be the end of the presentation, and we will then open the call for questions. Let me now hand over to Reiner for the review.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah. Thank you very much, Thomas, and welcome also from my side. To start, let's have a look on the developments in flight activity in the past year. Passenger traffic improved in the year but is still significantly below pre-COVID levels. Domestic travel improved the most, reaching roughly 70% of the 2019 levels. International traffic remained weak at roughly 20%-30% of pre-COVID levels. IATA forecasts passenger traffic to improve to about 60% of pre-COVID levels in 2022, but uncertainty remains. Cargo traffic remained robust and resilient throughout the year, being 7% above pre-COVID levels, and this momentum is expected to continue in 2022. For MTU, this is a very positive environment as our product portfolio fits perfectly into these expectations. We feel well-positioned to benefit from this recovery.

Now let's move on with our business review of 2021. I would like to start with some key highlights of the GTF engine program. In December last year, Pratt announced the GTF Advantage. The engine will provide higher thrust, lower fuel burn, and more durability. The updated GTF will be the most powerful engine for the A320neo family when it enters service in January 2024, and it is best positioned to power the A321XLR. In 2021, the GTF family collected more than 1,200 GTF orders. The latest order came from Qantas to power its newly ordered A321XLR and also A220. MTU Zhuhai inducted its first PW1100 engine in September last year. With MTU Zhuhai, we now have three MTU locations with full assembly, disassembly, and test capabilities for the GTF engine.

We are proud that MTU Maintenance Zhuhai is the first active PW1100G MRO shop in China, home to one of the largest GTF fleets. The strong success of the GTF is very much focused on the aircraft platforms A320neo, A220, and the larger A220s. On the other side, for smaller A220 platforms, we trimmed our business outlook and booked a write-off on program assets. The value of EUR 80 million is part of the adjustments in our numbers. In the MRO segment, we celebrated the start of the construction of our new parts repair shop in Serbia and the groundbreaking ceremony for our second MRO shop in China, MTU Maintenance Zhuhai 2. MTU Maintenance Serbia is expected to start operations by end of 2022 and will add efficiency to our high-performance network of MRO locations in Europe, Asia, and also North America.

The new facility in China will have an initial capacity of 260 shop visits, with a focus on PW1100 and the V2500 engines, and will start operations in 2024. The additional capacities in Serbia and China are essential elements in our ability to provide world-class services on the global MRO net market. This position enabled us to secure independent MRO campaign wins in the value of $4.6 billion in 2021. This confirms once again MTU's strong market positions in the MRO, even in a difficult market situation. We also achieved important milestones in our military business. In April, the 50/50 joint venture, EUMET, was founded, which will lead the engine activities for the Next-Generation Fighter. Good news also from the Eurofighter program.

Following the signing of the Quadriga contract for 38 Eurofighters for Germany in 2020, Spain placed an order for 20 Tranche 4 Eurofighters in December last year. The last year was another challenging one for the aviation industry, but we managed to further improve our performance. Therefore, we will propose a dividend payment of EUR 2.10 per share at this year's AGM on May 5th, of course, subject to approval by the supervisory board. In December, we announced a proposal for the election of Gordon Riske as a new supervisory board member and to chair the supervisory board. With his experience in fields like automation, digitization, and electrical engineering, we are convinced that Riske will support MTU very actively and with great strategic foresight. Let me now hand over to Peter for the financials.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yes. Thank you, Reiner, and also a warm welcome from my side. For the full year, total group revenues increased by 5% to roughly EUR 4.2 billion. In US dollar terms, revenues were up 9%. EBIT adjusted increased 13% to EUR 468 million, resulting in a margin of 11.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, we saw further sequential improvement in the margin from 11.7% in Q3 to 13.6% in Q4. Respectively, net income adjusted increased by 16% to EUR 342 million. Our free cash flow remains strong with EUR 240 million resulting in a cash conversion rate of 70%. The strong EBIT, as well as a solid working capital management, were the major free cash flow headwinds.

Turning to the next slide, you can see that we managed to achieve our updated October guidance quite well. Revenues ended up a bit below our guidance due to lower than expected OEM and MRO revenues, and I'm gonna give you some more color on that a bit later in the business segments. EBIT adjusted of EUR 468 million was at the upper range of our expectations, as well as the 11.2% margin. Net income adjusted grew in line with EBIT adjusted, so that also met our expectation. The cash conversion rate of 70% was also in our expected target range of a high double-digit cash conversion percentage. Overall, a very positive set of results and a clear step forward on our recovery path. Now, let's turn to our two business segments, and first, some details on our OEM division.

Total OEM revenues were almost stable at EUR 1.5 billion. Military revenues remained stable at EUR 480 million, which is definitely below our full year expectation of a 5% growth. We already expected revenues for the FCAS project in 2021, which did not materialize as the final contract for the demonstrator phase has not been signed yet. Further, some EJ200 deliveries moved into 2022. Commercial business revenues remained almost stable at EUR 1 billion, and within that, organic OE sales in US dollars were down by around 6%, which is definitely also below our expectations. Main reasons are lower than expected GEnx deliveries and some delays on Bizjets. On a quarterly basis, Q4 of 2021 OE sales were up 20% compared to Q4 of 2020, mainly driven by increased GTF engine deliveries.

Organic spare parts sales in US dollars were up 5% year-over-year. Q4 of 2021 spare parts revenues were up around 40% compared to Q4 of 2020. Main spare parts revenue drivers are the V2500, the cargo engines, so meaning the PW2000 and the CF6, and the GTF. The overall spares volume recovered in 2021, but is still 30% below pre-crisis levels. EBIT adjusted ended at EUR 320 million, translating into a strong margin of almost 21% resulting from the more favorable business mix. Let's move on to the commercial MRO segment. Reported MRO revenues here increased by 9% to EUR 2.7 billion. In US dollar terms, revenues were up 13%, which is slightly below our full year expectations of a mid-teens range.

The mix between core MRO and GTF work remained roughly stable at 60/40%, so 40% GTF share. EBIT adjusted increased 9% to EUR 149 million, resulting in a stable margin of 5.4%. The EBIT margin was impacted by a high share of GTF work, as already mentioned in previous calls. At this point, I would like to hand back to Reiner for some words on our guidance 2022.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah. Thank you, Peter. Based on the Q4 results and the first indications on the start into the year, we are able to confirm our guidance for the year 2022. The overall developments in our end markets are within the expected ranges. Airlines expect a strong summer season, and they are preparing their fleets to meet the demand. The high infection numbers following the occurrence of the Omicron variant did not harm travel recovery significantly. Anyway, the ongoing pandemic is certainly a factor to watch. It might influence our growth path. The same is true for possible supply chain disruptions. We have managed the obvious pressure on the supply chain very effectively, but global supply remains volatile. We will certainly monitor these developments closely and will update our outlook if necessary during the year.

For the total group revenues, we confirm our expectation at EUR 5.2 billion-EUR 5.4 billion. While the net military revenues are expected to be up high single digits. Delays in tasks for the FCAS are partly compensated by delivery shifts from 2021 into 2022. Commercial MRO revenues are expected to be up in the mid- to high-20s range. The outlook for the commercial OE and spare parts business remains unchanged. Up mid- to high-teens for OE and up mid-teens for the spare parts business. The EBIT adjusted expectations also remain unchanged, and the numbers should grow in the mid-20s percentage range. On the free cash flow side, we are now guiding for cash conversion rate in the mid- to high double-digit percentage range.

Mainly working capital and CapEx expectations remain volatile as rate discussions and market demand triggers larger movements in that area. Thank you very much for your attention. We are now ready to answer your questions.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your touchtone telephone. The operator will announce your name when it's your turn to ask a question. In case you wish to cancel your request, please press the hash key. We've got the first question coming from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Robert Stallard
Partner in Global Aerospace & Defense Industry, Vertical Research Partners

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Morning.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Morning.

Robert Stallard
Partner in Global Aerospace & Defense Industry, Vertical Research Partners

Couple of questions from me. First of all, Reiner, you mentioned the volatility and risk in the supply chain. Your partners at Pratt & Whitney said that they've been experiencing some issues in casting. I was wondering if you could comment on whether you're seeing strains in your business in similar areas or different areas. Secondly, in your commentary, I think it was Peter said this, there had been some biz jet delays in the fourth quarter. I was wondering if you could elaborate on that. Thank you.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, I start with supply chain. We do not actually see significant problems in the areas, especially not in castings. What we see is from time to time, let's say supply issues, especially with smaller suppliers. As you know, in the past, we have more or less for every part we buy, we have a second or sometimes also a third source. Yes, there is a little bit of volatility and a little bit of uncertainty, but as of today, we see no major impacts coming from that. As I said, we have to monitor that closely. We have introduced a monitor board here within MTU to watch that closely. Maybe if there are things happening, we will update this during the year. As I said, actually, it's not really a big issue.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

The Bizjet deliveries, I mean, there were some problems at Pratt Canada. To some PW300 and 800 shifted from December to January. That was also due to, I think supply chain issues at Pratt Canada, but nothing to worry about. It's just a shift of several weeks, yeah.

Robert Stallard
Partner in Global Aerospace & Defense Industry, Vertical Research Partners

It's just a short term.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah, yeah.

Robert Stallard
Partner in Global Aerospace & Defense Industry, Vertical Research Partners

Delay over the quarter end. That's all right. Okay, thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from the line of George Zhao from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

George Zhao
Director of European Aerospace & Defense and Research Analyst, Bernstein

All right. Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Morning.

George Zhao
Director of European Aerospace & Defense and Research Analyst, Bernstein

I guess first question, I mean, what drove the MRO revenue to come slightly below the expectations considering, you know, your spares for the year came in slightly above? I guess second question, I mean, looking ahead to 2022 for your commercial OE, I guess, what kind of production rates for the A320neo and the 787 are you assuming as part of the mid- to high-teens growth for the year?

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, on the MRO side, it's always a little bit a source of volatility. On the one hand is the exact work scope of the engine. Typically the bill of material was a bit weaker in December and a handful of engines. It was more an internal issue, a bit longer turnaround time of engines due to technical issues. The batch of tests shifted from December to January. That can always happen at the end. It's not coming really from market demand, rather, as I said, from work scope and a little bit longer turnaround time for some shop visits.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Regarding the rate of Airbus, I think it's for the A320. It's something in range of

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Mid-50s.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Mid-50s. Yeah. For the 787, it's around, I think-

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

It's a very low rate, actually.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Two to three aircrafts.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah, roughly. Our shipments for the GEnx is something like 50 engines for the year 2022. Maybe a slow recovery at the end of 2022, but that depends definitely on the technical problems. I mean, that's public Boeing has with the 787. We slow down engine deliveries because, I mean, they do not deliver a lot of aircraft to the customers. When that problem will be solved, that's not in our hands as of today.

George Zhao
Director of European Aerospace & Defense and Research Analyst, Bernstein

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America, may we have your question, please?

Benjamin Heelan
Managing Director, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yeah, morning, guys. Wanted to ask a question on the margin in OEM. Obviously, it was pretty strong, high twenties, 24% in the second half of 2021. Can you talk a little bit about how sustainable you think this is as we go into 2022? Or is there anything that we need to be aware of that may drag it down or even benefit it in 2022? First question will be on the OEM margin. Secondly on shop visit visibility. Can you talk a little bit about lead times on shop visits? How you feel about visibility? Where is kind of shop visit utilization at the moment? Yeah, any color on that would be great. Thank you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, it's quite obvious. I mean, Q3 was very strong in the OEM. It was 23%. Q4 was very strong at 24%. That's, you know, in one part is obviously the business mix. Typically, the second half of the year is typically very strong regarding step-up business. You know, I mean, step-ups were up 40% in the fourth quarter. On the other side, OE deliveries were down a little bit in Q4, so it was a quite favorable business mix. Q4 was also in the commercial section, and the military business was very strong in the fourth quarter, also combined with a quite good margin in the military business.

Overall, it was a very favorable quarter for the OEM division. We won't see 25% now in each and every quarter. I mean, you have seen, I mean, if you monitor the development year-over-year in the OEM division, we moved from 18.2% to 20.7%, so 2.5 percentage points up. It's a clear development in the right direction. Obviously, our ambition is to improve that further and finally also reach at a certain point of time the 25% for the year we had in 2019, as you know.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Regarding visibility in the MRO shops, I mean, of course, we have, I would say, very high visibility. Actually, all the shops are more or less fully utilized back again to the levels we have seen before. We have a huge order book, as you know, as you can see in the appendix, in the MRO business. I would say we are quite confident that we can reach our targets for 2022 with the growth rates we have just mentioned on that.

Benjamin Heelan
Managing Director, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay, great. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank, may we have your question?

Christophe Menard
Aerospace & Defence Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yes, good morning. First question, on the OE margin, you are mentioning cost-cutting programs that help you improve the OE margin. Can you quantify what it represented in, well, in the year? Should we expect further improvement going forward? You just mentioned 25%. To what extent is it enabling you to reach this target, and how soon, I would say? The second question was on the guidance in military. I understand that the FCAS program has been postponed, or not signed, sorry, not postponed, but not signed. You're saying in the presentation it will be signed in 2022. That revenue shortfall you had in 2021, why are we not seeing it in 2022?

I mean, you have exactly the same guidance as the one you had during the CMD in military. So just understanding why it's not a bit improved, I would say. And the last question is on the working cap. The payables increased quite a lot versus last year. Is it due to prepayments or any specific reasons?

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Military business, that is easy, Christophe. I mentioned the FCAS program. In the guidance we gave in November, we expected that we do FCAS development work for the full year in 2022. Now we expect a signature of the contract in mid-2022. We're gonna lose some revenues from the funded technology work. On the other side, we get some tailwind from the shifted deliveries from 2021 to 2022 for EJ200. That is net zero.

That is why the outlook is the same for the military business. Payables, it's a bit difficult because on the one hand, we have program assets on the balance sheet where you have, for example, towards IAE, we have receivables and payables. They are typically net. It can well be that in one fiscal year, you have a receivable versus IAE. In the other year, you have a payable versus IAE. These accounts can shift from the asset side to the payable side easily. It's better to look at receivables minus payables.

The net position of that. It's lower, no? The second explanation is that in the MRO division we have bought typical these part buys at the end of the year 2021. We bought different spare parts for the MRO division, but you don't pay them. That results in a higher inventory level and also in a higher payable level. Because, I mean, in 2021 you pay the 2021 list price, obviously, and you can bill that in 2022 for the new price list.

That's an implied 5% or 4% EBIT margin, which you can achieve through transactions like that. Overall, you can see that we have a tailwind. We did, I think in 2022, quite well in working capital management given the difficult environment with airlines. We had a tailwind in working capital of roughly EUR 50 million, and you can see that in the cash flow statement. OE margin. Yeah, I mean, we had savings, definitely. I mean, you know, we reduced full-time equivalents by roughly 1,000 in the course of the crisis. We reduced general costs.

I would say the general cost savings is still there. I mean, it is a mid-double-digit number, which we are, but we still have lower, let's say, costs like, travel and consulting and so on. We are still at a very low level. Now, I mean, as we expect a very steep recovery, obviously we have to hire staff again. We have a lot of open positions. I think only in Munich, 200 people, so shop floor level, IT, R&D. I mean, we are also preparing for FCAS. Once we get the signature, we are ready to really start with the work. We are already at the end at a headcount of 10,500. We have started rehiring. Obviously, the reduction in headcount is not there anymore.

Christophe Menard
Aerospace & Defence Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thank you very much for the detailed answers.

Operator

Thank you. Harry Breach from Stifel, may we have your question?

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defence Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Yes, good morning, Reiner, Peter. Can you hear me?

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Hi. Good morning.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yes, we can hear you.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defence Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Great. Just a couple of things. I guess there's been a few questions about the margin on the OEM side. Can you maybe just enlighten us a bit with the MRO margin? It was quite strong in the fourth quarter. Were there any sort of particular dynamics there? I'm assuming that the GTF versus non-GTF revenue mix was still at the 40%-60% ratio in the fourth quarter. But can you help us to understand sort of what drove that sort of 6% margin and if that's sort of sustainable into 2022, plus or minus? Second question was. Yeah, just trying to understand. It may be too difficult to say, to be honest with you guys.

When we think about military OEM, when we think about getting towards contract signature, are there still outstanding issues that are difficult to resolve between the parties at the engine level or are they now resolved? Is it just really down at the airframe side? And then maybe just perhaps the final question for me was just maybe a little bit, Peter, just following your last question in answer to Christophe, about cost normalization. You spoke a lot about the need to hire again, so to add people. Can you help us to think, you know, when we're thinking about the impact of some of your costs normalizing this year, is it possible to sort of for us to sort of think about the margin impact of that, Peter? You think overall that will be a net zero with the benefits of operating leverage, in the year? Thank you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

MRO margin, I think there's nothing particular in Q4. I mean, the OEM margin hovers around 5%-6% in the quarters. A little bit, I mean, in Q4, we had a little bit lower GTF share, so more towards the 30% and, let's say, 70% for the independent business. That, and you have obviously a typical mix between the different programs and customers and not every contract or program has the same profitability. You have obviously a little bit of volatility. I think the main explanation is a little bit lower GTF share with the known, rather low margin revenues. On the FCAS side, I mean, the engine consortium is ready. I mean, we have formed the EUMET joint venture with Safran.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

We are just waiting for this, for the agreement between Airbus and Dassault. Once that has been finalized, I think then we expect the contract to be signed and our assumption for this year is the middle of the year, as Peter already said, to start with the execution of the contract.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, the rehiring, I mean, we hire obviously the people for a reason, because we have the work to do. I mean, we hire engineers for the FCAS program, so for the funded technology work, so for the demonstrator phase. So that will finally translate in military revenues and the respective military margin. We hire people on top floor level to ramp up the production rate of Airbus. That sets us in the position to increase here the engine output and the module output and also to work on more spare parts sales. I would say it's not something which dilutes our margin also. If you read our guidance, then you can see that the margin should be more or less stable next year, from the 11% which we had this year, which we had in 2021 of this year, last year.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defence Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Great. Peter, just to follow up a little on that. Yeah, I guess you focused there a little bit more on the impact of hiring. Just in terms of other costs that could be more normal, I think you talked about travel, you talked about IT projects. Maybe there are some material cost impacts, maybe there aren't. Can you give us any idea whether those non-payroll costs or any margin impact one way or the other this year?

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I think we're gonna see some normalization, but not yet. I think in the course of the year, we're gonna see a little bit more traveling, meeting customers, going to trade fairs and so on. That will probably happen. We're gonna spend more on IT definitely for a reason, because we want to get more efficient in our processes and so on. I wouldn't see a big margin impact there. I mean, that's.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defence Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Clear. Thank you. Thank you both.

Operator

Thank you. Milène Kerner from Barclays, may we have your question?

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

Yes. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking my question.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Hello.

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

Hi. I have three questions. My first question is on your spare parts performance in Q4 and for 2021. Sorry. It's probably my own inability to forecast, but based on 40% growth in Q4, I would get closer to 7% growth for the full year than the 5% you reported. If you are able to help me understand where I'm wrong, that will help me. My second question was on your commercial spare part guidance for 2022. Pratt guided to 20%-25% aftermarket sales growth. GE has guided to 20% increase in the number of shop visits. I know the mix is different and it's early in the year, but how should we think about your confidence level for meeting commercial spares for 2022? My last question is on currency.

Looking at your slide 13, that you disclosed, it seems that you had 15%, one five, of your 2021 earnings that came at the spot rate. Peter, can you tell us how big the currency impact was for 2021 and specifically in Q4? Thank you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

The currency impact on revenues, or what do you mean?

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

No. Sorry, on earnings.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, first our spare parts business. I mean, the around 40% range, that translates to a mid-single digits. I mean, we reported in Q1 something like down high 30% range. We got it in Q2 up roughly 50%, and we got it in Q3 up low teens. Now roughly 40%, so that results finally in mid-single digits. In the upper end of that range, let's say 6%-7% or so spare part sales, yeah. But I can assure you that's 1 or 2 percentage points over four quarters. I mean, that is a minor deviation, yeah. FX. You look on our hedge book or what? What do you?

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

No. I mean, it's just, I mean, when I look at your hedge book

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yes.

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

I mean, it looks like you were 85% hedged in terms of earnings. I guess that the remaining 15% came at the spot rate, which is better than your hedge rate. I was just wondering what was the currency benefit to your earnings last year, and specifically in Q4.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

In 2021 we had finally hedged 95% of our exposure for 2021 at an average rate of 1.18, yeah. It was more or less-

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

I get that's the difference. I get 85% where you are 95% hedged. Okay.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah, yeah.

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

Clear.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

That's not a big-

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

I see the difference.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah, yeah.

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

Maybe on my second question on your spares guidance. I mean, I know it's really early in the year, and you were the first to actually guide in November. I mean, since then we have now the U.S. that have also guided for 2022. I just wanted to see, like, how confident you were about this meeting commercial spares guidance for 2022.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

We are very confident actually. I mean, we see that also now. I mean, the main sources of our spare parts growth really comes from on the one-hand side, the PW1100 on the V2500, and there we have already. I mean, we have recovered there 30%-40% of the market. We know what we expect regarding shop visits for our sites. I mean, for Hannover, for EME in Poland, but also for Zhuhai in China. I think that that gives us quite a high level of confidence that we can meet the 50%, yeah.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

What you should not forget is if Pratt or GE, their guidance includes the MRO activity. It's not just the spare parts business. It includes, it's the entire aftermarket business, yeah.

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

Yeah, sure. The mix is also different.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah. It's yeah.

Milène Kerner
Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, Barclays

Great. Thank you so much.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from the line of David Perry from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

Yeah. Hi, Reiner. Peter, can you hear me okay?

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Yes. Very well.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

Yeah. Great. Great. A couple of questions if that's okay. The first one is can you just give us an update on how the talks with Airbus are going, please, on rate 70 and possibly above, and whether you're supportive at the current time? The second one, I think it's sort of been touched on, but let me just ask it more explicitly. Inflation. Just wondered what protection you have if labor costs, raw material costs, energy costs go up. What's actually written into your contracts both on spares in OEM, but also in MRO. Is there any protection there or do you have to absorb it?

The third one, it's a bit of a detailed question, but it feels we're at a point where we should start to see more spares sales in OEM on both GTF and GEnx as those fleets are getting a bit bigger and a bit older. Peter, would you be able to share with us the actual sales you're getting in spares on those two engines, please? 'Cause I'm really not sure how to start modeling that out. Thank you very much.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Maybe I start with the rate discussions with Airbus. I mean, actually there are no ongoing discussions on that. I think we agreed for 2022 and 2023 the further rate increase towards that, whatever 63 or 65. Whatever will happen after that has to be, I would say, negotiated in the course of this year. We typically need, I would say 12-15 months or 18 months in advance. If we have then, let's say an agreement with Airbus, we can execute that and deliver. But as I said, actually there are no ongoing discussions for the time beyond 2023. But this will definitely happen within this year. So, uh,

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

The talks will happen just to be clear.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

the decision?

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

The talks and the decisions then a little bit later. Final purchase order, I would say I do not expect for this year. They typically do not give you a purchase order for two years in advance. It's typically one year in advance.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

Okay. Very clear. Thanks.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, regarding sourcing, we typically don't pay the spot price. Typically we have long-term pricing agreements, three to five years with our suppliers. Also regarding raw materials like nickel and titanium and so on, we typically pay something like a gliding average price over two to three years or so. The actual spot price doesn't hit your cost of goods sold directly. That's the one answer. On the pricing side, for the new engines we can pass on price increases to the customer, to the airlines. These prices of engines are subject to inflation with indices.

Typically there is a consumer price index consisting of a mix of labor cost increases and also raw material increases. This gives us on the new engine side protection. Spare parts they typically have. It's rather a pricing power thing. You, as you know, typically OEMs increase the spare parts prices on average 5% annually. We have also seen years where they were 7%, 8%. In a situation where you really would have significantly higher manufacturing costs, typically they would increase spare parts price maybe by 7% or 8% for one year or so. That would happen. I mean, on the spare parts manufacturing cost is relatively low cost factor, I would say.

The labor rates typically, which you have in the contracts itself. For let's say testing, manual repairs, but also on disassembly and assembly of the engines. The agreed labor rates are also subject to price adjustments, typically based on the CPI indices or labor rate increases. I would say that we are regarding inflation, we are quite protected.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

Well, it's super helpful.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Your question on spare parts, I don't give you the absolute number, but I mean a rough idea. I mean, the GEnx is currently something like 5% of our spare parts volume and the PW1100. So I would say 10%-15% of our spare parts volume. These are 2021 figures now.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

Sorry, 5%. Did you say 10%-15%?

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah. I mean, GEnx is roughly 5% and the PW1100, 10%-15%.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

Yeah. Sorry, can I just be cheeky then and just ask one follow-up? Because you've given us 5% organic growth, but it's a portfolio of mature engines and growing engines. Which products actually went down in terms of spares sales year over year? Which ones are now rolling over as the GEnx and the PW1500 grow?

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, I would say, the major source of growth in 2021 versus 2020 really came from the PW1100. There we had a significant tailwind in spare parts demand, because I mean, 2020 was obviously quite low. V2500 for the full year, I mean, you have to keep in mind that in 2020, the first quarter was an extremely strong spare parts quarter. We had obviously the growth to digest that base effect in the year 2020. The spares of the V2500 year-over-year were roughly flat. And the growth came from PW1100. We had the PW2000 and the CF6 combined. They were for the year roughly stable. Obviously the wide body engines were rather down because of the lower utilization, I mean, GP7000 for the A380 and so on. Also GEnx was slightly down. That is more or less the composition of the 5% growth.

David Perry
Head of European Aerospace & Defense, JPMorgan

All right. Really appreciate it. Thank you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Thank you.

Operator

Next question from the line of Andrew Humphrey from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Andrew Humphrey
Executive Director and Head of European Aerospace & Defence Research, Morgan Stanley

Hi. Thank you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Hi.

Andrew Humphrey
Executive Director and Head of European Aerospace & Defence Research, Morgan Stanley

I've got a couple. I wanted to ask first off about cash conversion. I mean, you've highlighted the kind of upper and lower end of the range will be kind of driven by, informed by what happens on rate decisions this year, preparation for a recovered market. Can you kind of maybe go into a bit more detail on that? Like, will you have to kind of make significant investments this year, with rate 70, if that turns out to be where we're going? I guess the question to ask is how much of that, you know, range between the upper and the lower end on cash conversion is driven by preparation for higher production rates on the A320?

How much of it is driven by, you know, working capital requirements if we have a stronger market recovery than maybe we have visibility on it this year, at this point? Sorry. That would be the first. The second is shorter. I wanted to ask about the very strong spares performance in Q4. How much of that was driven by kind of year-end restocking or seasonal restocking as you might expect? And then my third is whether you see any potential for kind of shorter term supply chain disruptions. Obviously we're all kind of well aware that you plan for the long term. There are clearly kind of long term agreements in place, but clearly the international political situation at the moment is quite volatile.

A lot of titanium comes from Russia. You know, what insurance do you have in the short term on, you know, stock levels and continuity of supply?

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Maybe I'll start with the first question on cash conversion rate. I mean, what drives the upper and lower end of that, is more, it's on the one side, it's working capital, as you mentioned. What is the effective market demand at the end of the day, how strong is the recovery that drives it? From the CapEx side, it's not so much rate 70. I mean, if we have to invest for rate 70, and we should not forget, before the crisis, we were already in the range of some, whatever, 65 per month. There's not a significant investment necessary to go toward rate 70, especially not in 2022. The majority of the investment is coming from our new Serbia facility, which will go productive end of the year.

There's, let's say, a huge investment, additional investment this year for this, the Serbia project that drives more the CapEx side this year. It's not something related to the rate 70 discussion.

Andrew Humphrey
Executive Director and Head of European Aerospace & Defence Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, typically Q4 is the strongest spare parts quarter, exactly for the reason you mentioned that all MRO shops in the world are stocking spare parts for the oldest price, and they can bill them in the following year for the newest price. That is the typical behavior. That's why Q4 is typically the strongest in the

Andrew Humphrey
Executive Director and Head of European Aerospace & Defence Research, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Strongest quarter in the year.

Andrew Humphrey
Executive Director and Head of European Aerospace & Defence Research, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Regarding supply chain, I mean, as said already, we have for most of the parts, critical parts, we have second sources or sometimes also third sourcing suppliers. So, what we in addition did already last year, we did a little bit like buffering, so ordering a little bit more than necessary to have some buffer in the system, and we have to monitor that closely. Actually, I do not see a huge risk coming from Russia or something like that, but

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

We don't source titanium from Russia.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Humphrey
Executive Director and Head of European Aerospace & Defence Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Celine Fornaro from UBS, may we have your question?

Celine Fornaro
Managing Director and Head of European Industrials Equity Research, UBS

Yes. Thank you. I have two questions, if I may. The first one would be regarding the MRO and if in your guidance that remains unchanged for 2022 despite some slippage in 2021 from 2020. Do we read this as taking a slightly more conservative stance because you're gonna have some potential slippages there as you have maybe a risk of, you know, a how do you say, an output glut? You had it at the end of 2021, and there is a risk of having more in 2022 of that. How do you see it in terms of confidence? And what signposts, you know, should we be looking for to see on how this is going or being recovered?

My second question would be in terms of general behavior of airlines on spare orders or even MRO or the quality of the MRO shop visits. If you could tell us a little bit how you see the 2022 backlog compared to, you know, the freighters, but also the non-freighters airlines and also those that, you know, we're excluding GTF in this question, if that's okay. Thank you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Sure. I mean, on the MRO market side, I mean, we still are continued high demand for from the freighter market, definitely. I mean, as you saw on the first page, on the second page of our presentation is that, I mean, the outlook for the freight market are quite good. Another strong growth. Obviously, freighter operators want to bring everything in the air they have. The demand level is quite high.

In our universe, that translates into high demand for PW2000 shop visits where we have a freighter operator as a customer, but also for the CF6, which we do in Vancouver and Hannover, also very high level of demand, more especially for North American freighter airlines. That is, there we're going to see in 2022 really also a growth there supporting our 2022 outlook. From the airline side, I mean, as Reiner mentioned at the beginning, that is, so airlines are preparing for a very good summer season.

Especially the scope of the shop visits. I mean, in the past or in the middle of the crisis, obviously, airlines really try to push out shop visits, and the shop visits were from a scope perspective quite small. Really only minimum shop visits to keep the engine flying, but not more. Now we see that the scope of the shop visits also increases and really do full and heavy shop visits. That supports on the other side also our spare parts outlook. I hope I answered.

Celine Fornaro
Managing Director and Head of European Industrials Equity Research, UBS

Sorry, just to follow up, Peter, on the follow-up. Is there any regional difference in regional color, maybe North America, Europe or China and rest of Asia that you could provide?

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, that's a little bit, I mean, our view, because I mean, we have our especially from the freighter side, we have our customer base more in the North American market, I would say, yeah. Especially, I mean, the PW2000 and CF6-80 engine, they are very popular also in the North American market. But is that really a global thing? That I really couldn't answer. But from our customer base, we are strongly positioned in North America, and there we see really a strong demand.

Celine Fornaro
Managing Director and Head of European Industrials Equity Research, UBS

Thank you. On the question on the MRO, the first one on the MRO, risk for 2022.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Risk? Of what? Sorry.

Celine Fornaro
Managing Director and Head of European Industrials Equity Research, UBS

Yes. I mean, you had some slippage on delivery of engines in 2021, but in the same time.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah. Some shop visits moved from 2021 to 2022. I mean that in an ideal world, maybe we could give a higher growth rate there, but it was not really. We didn't want to change the picture actually because of a 2 or 3 percentage point more better MRO growth rate. On the other side, I mean, we are still in the middle of the Corona crisis. We see that we have in our travel plans some infections obviously. That prolongs turnaround times a little bit in the shops. I would say there's no market risk from the MRO. There's really a very high demand, so the engine pipeline in front of our shops are quite long. The market is there, and we have to deliver regarding our turnaround times, so to bring the engines back to the customer.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

I mean, as Peter said, if there is a risk, it's more in delivering.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Yeah.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

OEM performance, shop performance. The market demand is definitely there. We have then to execute it. That's more the part. As Peter said, it was really a minor, let's say, slippage from 2021 into 2022, and we thought that it's not really, let's say, justifies an upgrade of or a further update of the guidance for MRO. It's a. I would say it's in the normal, let's say, variance.

Celine Fornaro
Managing Director and Head of European Industrials Equity Research, UBS

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Tristan Sanson from BNP Paribas, may we have your question, please?

Tristan Sanson
Managing Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Yes, good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have a few small question of follow-up. First to follow up on the question from Celine on MRO. Can you tell us actually when is the first slot available in your MRO shops? Are you, like, fully booked now for 2022, or is it sometime in H2? And can we assume you're already fully booked ahead of the summer season? That would be helpful. Second question, I think you mentioned with Q3 numbers supply chain quality issues on military programs. I don't know if it's a reason why some EJ200 delivery is shifted to 2022, but can you tell us whether this is now well under control?

The third question is that we saw airworthiness directives issued on the V2500 and more recently on the PW1100 prompting for the replacement of some parts. I wanted to know whether this has an impact on the spare parts trajectory that you had in 2021 and you schedule for 2022, or whether we should consider it as rather marginal and business as usual. Many thanks.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

As regarding the military issue that's solved. Regarding EJ200 deliveries, that was really rather an issue during the third engine test run. Is it in December or is it then in January? It slipped over into January, and we book revenues upon a successful test run. That's why revenue slipped in the military field from 2021 to 2022.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

On the MRO, I mean, when is the next slot available? More or less we are fully booked for this year, but that does not mean that there's no chance to get a slot. I mean, there are also some movements between the customers, some delays on another one, so. In principle, we are fully booked, yeah. The last one was on the comment of Airbus, or what was it?

Tristan Sanson
Managing Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, BNP Paribas

No, no, sorry. On Airworthiness Directives that have been

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Oh, okay.

Tristan Sanson
Managing Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, BNP Paribas

ADs issued on the V2500 and GTF and whether they had an impact on your spare parts trajectory or whether it's a marginal factor for you.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

That's a marginal factor. No. That is.

Tristan Sanson
Managing Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, BNP Paribas

That is very good.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Business as usual, I would say.

Tristan Sanson
Managing Director of Aerospace & Defence Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Okay. Many thanks for your comments.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Thomas Franz
VP of Investor Relations, MTU Aero Engines

Okay. I think this ends the Q&A session for today. Thank you very much. Thanks, Reiner. Thank you, Peter. Thank you all to the participants out there. Stay safe and enjoy the rest of the day.

Reiner Winkler
CEO, MTU Aero Engines

Bye-bye.

Peter Kameritsch
CFO, MTU Aero Engines

Bye.

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