Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aurubis AG second quarter results 2023-2024. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. Let me now hand over to Elke Brinkmann.
Good afternoon also from my side. I'm here with our CEO Roland Harings and our CTO MarKus Kramer, who will present the half-year figures and current developments at Aurubis in a moment. As mentioned before, if you would like to ask a question during the Q&A session, please use the key sequence 9*. Let me now turn the floor over to Roland Harings.
Okay, thank you, Elke. Also from my side, good afternoon here, and thanks for joining us for the half-year result call this time from Hamburg. As you have noted, Rainer Verhoeven is not here today. He's excused because he is ill. He is recovering, but he is not, say, in a condition that he could participate today. So please take his greetings, and we will start then with the two of us, Markus and me, to run this call. Our first statement and announcement Aurubis made last Monday was that Steffen Alexander Hoffmann was appointed as new Aurubis Chief Financial Officer starting October the 1st in this calendar year. Steffen is an internationally experienced manager from Mercedes-Benz Group, and it can be assumed that his experience in international finance will be instrumental in the realization of the Aurubis Growth Story.
So we are really pleased that we have now one of the succession persons for the board of Aurubis found, and we all at Aurubis wish him all the best in his new role. Now let's start with the report about the first six months. Aurubis delivered, again, with an operating EBT of EUR 243 million, a result at a high earnings level. This was a result of a strong operative performance paired with high demand for cathodes and wire rod. Let's have a closer look on the influencing factors. Higher treatment and refining charges for concentrate, a higher metal result, a significantly higher Aurubis copper premium with continued high demand for wire rod, and considerably lower energy cost had a positive effect.
These positive effects were more than compensated from the significant year-over-year reduction in sulfuric acid revenues, lower income from refining charges for some recycling materials, and increased cost in the group. Group costs were above the previous year's level with significantly lower energy costs but increased legal and consulting costs due to the criminal activities directed against Aurubis, expenses for the severance package for the departing executive board members, and the launching cost for the strategic project currently in implementation. Before we proceed, I would like to talk about the restatement of the previous year's figure. As you know, as of the end of last fiscal year, we booked the financial impact of the criminal activities against Aurubis in the amount of EUR 169 million negative.
According to our current understanding, we assume that the negative impact of these criminal activities took effect at the start of the 2023 calendar year specifically. Correspondently, operating and IFRS results have been adjusted from the second quarter 2022-2023 onwards. For the second quarter of the previous year, the restatement of the operating result before taxes amounts to EUR 52 million negative. Slide 24 of the appendix to this presentation depicts the new numbers for the previous year on a quarterly basis. Operating ROCE, taking EBIT of the past four quarters into account, decreased to 10% compared to 14% in the first half of the previous year. In particular, the weak financial performance in the second half of the previous year due to the financial impact of the criminal activities and the high level of ongoing investment reduced the ROCE.
Due to the high working capital expenditure needed to prepare for the upcoming maintenance shutdown in the Hamburg plant, net cash flow in the first six months of 2023-2024 was EUR 5 million and below the previous year's level of EUR 19 million. Compared to the net cash flow of minus EUR 202 million in the first quarter of 2023-2024, the net cash flow was clearly positive despite the further increase in working capital. All in all, and based on this positive half-year result, we are confirming our forecast range for the current fiscal year at EUR 380 million-EUR 480 million operating EBT. Taking into consideration the latest market developments as well as the metal prices as we currently see them, we now expect the operating EBT to come in at the middle of the guided range. Let us briefly touch on the financial half-year results.
The slight decline in revenues was mainly due to the year-over-year decrease in some metal prices like copper and lower sales of shapes. As a result of the previously mentioned earning drivers, gross profit was above last year's level. This is mainly due to the explained profit drivers. All in all, operating EBITDA, EBIT, and EBT came in at slightly elevated levels compared to previous year's figures. This was in part due to the previously mentioned restatement of the previous year's numbers. ROCE are already explained on the previous slide. Let's have a look now at some market developments. The copper and metal prices in general showed volatile development during the reporting period, but recently we have seen overall positive momentum on the metal markets.
The new copper price poll from Reuters anticipates copper in calendar year 2024 at $9,101 and $9,601 per ton in 2025, indicating and supporting the positive momentum. Despite the latest upheaval in the concentrate market, Aurubis still saw a good supply situation in quantity and quality of concentrates with increased TCRCs during the reporting period. Compared to the previous year, we have achieved a very good result on concentrates. During Q2 in particular, production cuts on the mining side, strong purchases from the Asian smelter industry, and capacity growth on the smelter side together with the Panama situation put significant pressure on the spot market condition and resulted in historically low TCRCs on the sourcing markets for concentrates.
As we discussed in various calls before, Aurubis activity on the spot market is very limited to our positioning on the market with long-term supply agreements. Our main primary smelter sites in Hamburg and Pirdop are already supplied with concentrates until the last quarter of this calendar year at satisfactory treatment and refining charges. Let's have a look at the recycling markets. There was a strong demand for recycling materials, particularly for high purity copper scrap from Asian smelters due to the sharp decline in smelting and refining charges for concentrates during the reporting period. This reduced availability for the European market due to higher exports to the Asian market. Despite high Asian demand, ROCEs remained rather stable during the reporting period. CRU estimates an average ROCE of around EUR 345 per ton over the reporting period for copper scrap number two without logistics.
This compares, or it's nearly the same number for the prior year period with EUR 357 per ton. The ROCEs for complex recycling materials were slightly below prior year's level due to lower availability of materials resulting from a drop in industrial activities. Looking again ahead like we did for concentrates, our production sites are already largely supplied into the fourth quarter of our fiscal year 2023-2024. Coming to sulfuric acid, the sulfuric acid markets continued to stabilize during the first half of this fiscal year 2023-2024, but pricing remains under the pressure of previous year's high levels. Demand from the European chemical and fertilizer industries is steadily progressing towards normal levels. The return of some fertilizer manufacturers in the North American market region, the North African, sorry, North African region has supported demand in the Mediterranean markets. Price level remained at good levels for Aurubis.
ACP, we talked in the last quarterly call already. There's the premium for the year, calendar year 2023, was set at $228 per ton and is therefore the same like we had in 2023 and now in 2024. USD, Aurubis has a long position of about $640 million in the fiscal year 2023-2024. Within the scope of our hedging strategy, we have hedged 87% at 1.103 for this fiscal year and around 45% at a rate of 1.093 for the coming fiscal year 2024-2025. Now talking about the gross margins. The breakdown of the income components continues to show our well-balanced business model. In an annual comparison, the gross margin, so overall earnings from the three main pillars of the business for the first half year increased slightly.
Aurubis continued to benefit from good TCRCs for concentrates and ROCEs for recycling material, which were at the previous year's level in the group. Earnings from premiums and products were almost at the previous year's level. They were positively influenced by higher cathode premiums and ongoing strong demand for wire rod. The lower sulfuric acid earnings contribution counteracted this position. At a group level, metal gains were slightly above previous year's level. This was a result of stable operating performance in the first half of the reporting period. At this point, I would like again to refer to the adjustments of the quarterly numbers of the previous year. Again, highlight that these details are in the appendix to this presentation. Coming to the cost slides, the group's total cost increased slightly by 5% to EUR 971 million. Energy costs decreased significantly, especially for electricity and natural gas.
This was counteracted by an increase in personnel costs and other operating expenses as well as in launching costs for the various strategic projects currently in implementation. In addition to higher wage tariff payments and expenses for the severance packages, personnel costs also increased mainly due to additional staff for growth projects. Other operating expenses have risen significantly compared with the previous year, mainly as a result of additional expenses for legal advice as well as consultancy fees caused by the criminal activities directed against Aurubis. Having now a deeper dive into the energy cost. Compared to the previous year, group energy costs were significantly reduced due to substantially reduced market prices, continued hedging transactions, and active energy management. Overall energy costs after six months decreased by 20% year-over-year to EUR 109 million, with both electricity and natural gas showing significant cost reductions at a group level.
This was caused by lower demand for electricity from industrial activities and reduced gas prices in the context of the merit order system for power markets in Europe. Equally, the relevant input factors, CO2 and the coal price, the API2 index, were significantly below previous year figures. Natural gas prices, in particular in Germany and Europe, were significantly below prior year levels due to a better supply situation with high storage levels in Europe and supported by wild, mild winter conditions. Bear in mind that the indirect CO2 compensation is an annual one-off payment resulting in a lowered net energy cost position. For the whole fiscal year, based on the latest market estimations, we anticipate energy costs to be and stay below previous year's figures.
Looking forward, we will continue to work on the further electrification of our production process and investing in decarbonizing our production. Secure energy supplies at reasonable prices remain, as we discussed many times, very relevant and important for an energy industry player like Aurubis in general. Looking at the financial position, key performance indicators continue to show a solid and robust picture. Our equity ratio is still well above our target levels. Aurubis debt coverage was slightly affected by the strategic investments in our Greenfield and Brownfield expansion. Our financial position is still absolutely sound with a debt coverage of almost zero. Net cash flow was EUR 5 million and below the previous year's level of EUR 90 million due to the high payments for the buildup of inventories in preparation for the shutdown in Hamburg.
Compared to the net cash flow of minus EUR 202 million in the first quarter of 2023-2024, the development of net cash flow was clearly positive despite the further increase in working capital. The increase in capital expenditure resulted mainly from strategic growth investments, primarily in our new U.S. American recycling plant, Aurubis Richmond, in the BOB in Olen and Beerse, and for the second stage of our industrial heat project in Hamburg and also starting the tankhouse expansion in Bulgaria in Pirdop. Now have a look at the segment results, starting with multimetal recycling. The MMR segment generated an operating EBT of EUR 75 million compared to EUR 103 million the previous year. Lower refining charges due to reduced throughput of some recycling materials had a negative impact.
This was a result of lower market availability due to diminishing construction activity as well as declining industrial production and the associated availability of industrial residues. Negative effects compared to the previous year included lower treatment charges for other recycling materials and a lower throughput of electronic scrap. The operating result of the MMR segment was impacted by an increase of costs mainly due to the plant startup costs in the U.S. side, Richmond, and the operating ROCE was at 10.3% compared to 15.5% in the last year. Last year's ROCE still reflected improved savings and improved earnings. This was also an increase in capital employed too, again, to the large part of the high level of growth investments. Coming to the segment custom smelting and products. In this segment, the operating EBT came in at EUR 235 million in the reporting period.
Due to the adjustment of the prior year figure, the previous year level of EUR 171 million was significantly exceeded. The segment's positive performance resulted from higher treatment and refining charges for concentrate and increased Aurubis copper premium, higher revenues from the sale of copper wire rod, a higher metal result, and significantly lower energy costs compared with the prior year. On the other hand, revenues from sulfuric acid were lower than in the prior year as a result of lower price levels. The segment's operating ROCE fell to 14.2% from 17.2% in the previous year. The segment's ROCE of 14.2% was negatively impacted by the financial effects of the criminal activities against Aurubis. In parallel, the capital employed increased as a result of the investments in our assets and also the buildup of inventory stock in Hamburg for the standstill.
Let's move to the outlook for the markets in this fiscal year 2023-2024. Despite the latest development on the concentrate markets, we continue to expect the market to grow both on the supply and demand side. The latest production issues, together with strikes and logistical problems, raised concerns about global supply. Subdued concentrate supply combined with new investments in the smelting industry in Asia, India, and Indonesia led to a shortage and, in our view, an overreaction of market participants. Nevertheless, all in all, we still anticipate sourcing sufficient supply from our long-term mining partners on the global markets as part of our long-term sourcing strategy at reasonable and profitable terms for our sites, Hamburg and Pirdop. Based on our expected stock levels and the contracts in place, Aurubis is already well supplied to the end of the calendar year at attractive pricing.
Regarding the question, which probably will come also in the Q&A, we do not speculate about TCRC developments for the next calendar year. But once again, we are in intensive discussion with many of our mining partners to find right agreements for the coming calendar year 2025. That's just something which was announced today. Indonesia, there is a new smelter being built in Indonesia by Freeport-McMoRan, and they achieved, given some delays in the ramp-up of the smelter, now the agreement with the Indonesian government for an export license, which allows them to export in the magnitude of 900,000 tons of concentrate from the Grasberg mine to the global markets. I think that's also a strong signal how quickly things in the concentrate market can change.
And as we also, let's say, in cooperation or working with Freeport, we see this as a positive sign also for the availability of concentrates in the market itself. Coming to this point, higher metal prices. Here, we see a continued strong demand, which will lead to higher premiums and surcharges for refined metals and our copper products. And as a consequence, in this area, Aurubis will continue to deliver good earnings results. Coming to the recycling markets, the strong purchases of Chinese and some other Asian smelters on the global market, in particular for scrap number two, we see this as a short-term event. Yes, in the short term, we expect a subdued European supply of recycling materials for both higher and lower-grade scrap materials due to the strong purchases and the general economic slowdown.
However, first signs of improvement have been indicated due to the latest developments on the metal markets and improved economic activities from industrial partners for more complex recycling materials like, for example, shredder materials, PCB residues, flex, and ashes. Our production plants are largely supplied with recycling materials well into Q4 of our fiscal year 2023-2024. Again, our diversified supplier network buffers potential supply shortages from the market. Sulfuric acid, both CRU and ICIS expect the trend of price levels we have seen in recent months for sulfuric acid to continue. Higher input costs for sulfur burners harm their output, resulting in lower availability on the markets, meeting a stabilizing and improving demand from the chemical and fertilizer industry in Europe, Turkey, and North Africa. In comparison with our previous expectations, we now expect a slightly better development of the revenue situation for sulfuric acid.
However, we expect it to remain below last year's level. ACP, we talked about, our Aurubis Copper Premium for the calendar year 2024 has been set at $228 per ton, same like the last calendar year's number. Coming to our copper products, we foresee a continued strong demand trend for wire rod at the high levels of the previous year, while expectations for shapes and flat-rolled products are still at subdued level. And here we see no significant signs of an improvement. However, wire rod, as mentioned, is a very strong demand, continued strong demand to the state. Talking about the guidance for this fiscal year, we confirm our group guidance based on the latest assumption for both earning drivers and cost components and continue to expect an operating EBT between EUR 380 million and EUR 480 million and an operating ROCE between 10% and 14%.
For the multimetal recycling segment, we still expect an operating EBT between EUR 60 million and EUR 120 million and an operating ROCE between 5%-9%. The anticipated ROCE is due in large part to the growth, is lower due to the large part in large part to the growth investment in Aurubis Richmond. For the segment custom smelting and products, we expect an operating EBT between EUR 410 million and EUR 470 million and an operating ROCE between 19%-23%. Taking into consideration the latest market developments and some of the guidance we have given of the market expectation, as well as metal prices as we currently experience and see them, we do expect the operating EBT for the group to come in at the middle of the guided range of between EUR 380 million and EUR 480 million. Talking about strategic investments and the impact.
This is just a reminder, and most of you have seen and we have discussed this slide of the financial outlook for Aurubis. The strategic agenda for Aurubis remains really intact and unchanged, including beyond the developments and changes at the management level. The financial outlook is known, well known to the capital markets. However, I would like to review some of the highlights. For strategic investments, we have currently approved EUR 1.7 billion. To a large extent, these investments are underway like Aurubis Richmond, Pirdop, where the groundbreaking just recently took place for the tankhouse expansion, Hamburg with industrial heat, and the H2-ready anode furnaces, as well as the other investments in our production sites. Summing up, these investments will result in a positive EBITDA contribution over the next three to five years.
The contribution will progress up to EUR 260 million per year, of which Aurubis Richmond will contribute alone around EUR 170 million. But as you know, there's a continued strategic agenda for the Aurubis group. Looking at the next slide and moving forward, many projects, some of which we will discuss shortly, are now in implementation. Aurubis is constantly progressing with its strategic agenda. We have made further progress with newly approved projects such as the Precious Metal Refinery, the Complex Recycling Hamburg, and BOB and ASPA, for example. Projects like Industrial Heat Phase 2 and the implementation of the H2 ready anode furnaces will be implemented during the upcoming shutdown at our Hamburg site.
But projects that are not yet ready for approval by the executive and subsequently supervisory boards are also moving through our development stages, some of which have been already included in our mid-term planning horizon. Those projects that are strategically and commercially attractive and have good prospects for passing the final stage gate are reflected in this mid-term planning so that the financial and human resource required for implementation can be taken into account in the forward planning. Naturally, clearly, just to restate, this does not presuppose project approval. If the strict investment decision criteria are not met, whether technical, commercial, or financial, a project will not be approved within Aurubis. Aurubis continues to have a rich reservoir of opportunities in a growing market for our business and for the metals that we produce.
I think we have proven to show and have the right mindset and also the tools and capabilities to turn these projects that create value for our shareholders and stakeholders into reality. With this, let's have a look at the upcoming milestones of the project in execution. Starting in 2024, the first strategic project being implemented will be commissioned and credibly start production. Once in production, they also will contribute to the company's bottom line. This is reflected in our financial guidance. It is impressive to see the progress each side is making with its strategic projects. Allow me to mention just a few of the projects that will be implemented and start operation in this calendar year 2024.
Both Industrial Heat Phase Two and the conversion of the anode furnace to make them H2 ready will be implemented as we speak during the Hamburg shutdown this year from May to July. In addition, the Bleed Olen Beerse, as we call it BOB, and the Advanced Sludge Processing, ASPA, as it's called, project, both of which focus on the further processing of intermediates, will start their production this year. Aurubis Bulgaria is also going to start expanding their photovoltaic park. And last but not least, Aurubis Richmond will start operations in the second half of the calendar year 2024. The other projects, as you can see on the chart, will be commissioned credibly in 2025 and 2026 as shown.
Let's have a special look at the progress in Aurubis Richmond, followed by the status of some of the projects in Hamburg and Bulgaria, which my colleague Markus will refer to. Just showing at the picture, looking at the picture here, and you can see the real visible progress of the Aurubis Richmond site, the facility that we are erecting in Georgia as the first multi-complex recycling plant in the US. The site is steadily and constantly progressing. The whole team that we have now on site is working on the preparation and corresponding implementation, and important in time and in budget. I'm pleased to announce that we are going to invite our stakeholders to the ribbon cutting event on September 20th, 2024. We are really excited to share this moment of starting this significant strategic project for Aurubis jointly with you.
With this, I would like to hand over to Markus Kramer, who will continue with some specifics on the projects here in Hamburg and other sites.
Yeah, thank you, Roland. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Warm welcome also from my side. Delegated from the supervisory board, I joined the executive board team as of 1st of March as Chief Transformation Officer. And as said by Roland, I would now like to share with you some more details about what is currently happening at our primary sites in Hamburg and in Pirdop. Let's start with Hamburg. In the upcoming months, we are conducting a major shutdown at the Hamburg plant. This shutdown will be used to execute and implement announced projects like the Industrial Heat Phase Two and the H2-ready anode furnaces.
We will invest a total of EUR 235 million in baseline and strategic CapEx and enhanced sustainable copper and metal production in our Hamburg sites. The execution of the maintenance shutdown is a large-scale logistical and technical project with roughly 1,500 internal and external people coordinating the 250 different maintenance and repair activities. Despite the baseline investments in the new brick lining of the furnace, a revision of the waste heat boiler and maintenance work, the two strategic projects mentioned will also be implemented. With these investments, the Hamburg site will be able to increase the maintenance cycle back to every three years. Let's have a look at some details of our strategic investments in the Hamburg site. First, the expansion of our industrial heat system. Second, H2 readiness, our hydrogen-capable anode furnaces.
With the second expansion stage of the industrial heat extraction to supply up to 20,000 households with CO2-free industrial heat, Aurubis is providing an important step for the transformation of the heating system in the city of Hamburg. Aurubis has already successfully supplied CO2-free industrial heat since the year 2018. With this next step, we will deliver the remaining possible heat to the city of Hamburg. Significant and relevant investments have already been made in 2022 so that the final steps can now be implemented during the shutdown. All in all, for this project, we will invest roughly EUR 100 million into the site, thus securing and strengthening its core business. The second investment is for the H2 readiness of our anode furnaces. This investment will allow the Hamburg site to use hydrogen instead of natural gas as a reduction agent in the processing step of the copper value chain.
In addition to decarbonizing production, the new furnaces will improve process flexibility as well. Compared to the current equipment, the new furnace technology enables the processing of more complex metal-bearing copper carbon plates. Already today, Aurubis produces copper with less than half the average global carbon footprint. This investment now will in future allow the Hamburg plant to be one of the first copper smelters in the world to use hydrogen instead of natural gas for the reduction process in its anode furnaces, once this is economically feasible. Let's move over to our investments in the Pirdop site. Besides major investments into Hamburg, this is where we equally invest in baseline investments and strategic investments.
These investments are a clear sign of the importance of the site in Pirdop as a central pillar of our smelter network and reflects the largest investment program since the site was acquired in 2008. All in all, Aurubis will invest EUR 400 million in our Bulgarian site. 60% of the EUR 400 million is included in the strategic group investment package of EUR 1.7 billion. The groundbreaking event for the expansion of the tankhouse and for solar park module 2 and 3 took place on April 25th. On top of the two mentioned strategic projects, we will also be investing heavily in the infrastructure of the site with the deployment of 460 high-efficiency motors replacing transformers at the site. We are investing in train cars to transport copper concentrates from the port of Burgas to Pirdop.
The projects in Pirdop are not new to you as they have been announced and explained in detail to the market. Let me highlight some information once again. Firstly, the expansion of the tankhouse will increase the site's annual production by around 50% to 340,000 tons with an investment of EUR 120 million. With this investment, we plan to sustainably supply critical raw materials, in particular refined copper, to enable the energy transition in Europe. Aurubis will increase the group's production capacity of cathodes and improve the CO2 footprint group-wide with lower logistical requirements between the sites. Secondly, Aurubis also broke ground for the expansion of two additional solar power plants. This investment will increase the company's captive power generation through the construction of additional photovoltaic modules. The groundbreaking was the kick-off for the construction of modules two and three. The fourth and final stage has already been approved.
When all four modules are completed, they will supply around 15% of the site's electricity needs with green energy. The systems will generate around 55,000 megawatt-hours per year, which is enough electricity to supply a town of 25,000 people for a year. The entire park will have a capacity of around 40 megawatts peak. With these investments, we continue to drive forward with the implementation of the driving sustainable growth strategy and underline our ambition to become one of the most sustainable and efficient smelter networks worldwide. With this, I would like to hand back to Elke.
Thank you, Roland and Markus. I would like to provide you with an outlook of the next events following our half-year publication. The publication of our Q3 figures will be on August 5th. Our annual report will be published on December 5th this year.
With a view to 2025, the annual general meeting will take place on April 3rd next year. With this outlook, we would like to thank you for your attention. I would like to ask the operator to take over for your questions.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. In case you wish to withdraw your question, please press nine and star again. Please press nine and star to register for a question. First up is Jason Fairclough from Bank of America. Over to you.
Yep, good afternoon. Thanks for the call, folks. Just a couple of quick ones from me. First, could you talk a little bit about your contract book?
I'm just thinking about how quickly it rolls off if we have an extended period here of low TCRCs. And then second, maybe a little bit shorter term, how do we think about profit weighting between the first half of this year and the second half? Should we expect lower profits into the second half?
Yeah, hi. Hi, Jason. Roland speaking here. Regarding contract, Jason, as we discussed also, we are very much looking into long-term contracts with our suppliers in the input side and also with our customers on the output side for products. And as I stated, we are well supplied in quantity, quality, and also in pricing oriented at this year's benchmark, which is $80.8 for the total calendar year. And next year, we will have new contracts very much discussing some pricing components. But again, we are taking the official benchmark as an orientation.
We source our concentrates above the official benchmark. We are able, with our mix, with our also ability to handle complex and difficult concentrates, we are seen as one of the key players in handling these kinds of materials. So short answer, for this calendar year, we are fully sourced and pricing is set. Regarding profit, I think what is important to mention that we have, as Markus explained, we have a significant standstill in Hamburg. Actually, this quarter started yesterday. And it will take us into July. And the impact of this standstill is estimated to be around EUR 40 million, which means if you take, let's say, things alike, first half, second half at least, we will have an impact of the standstill. However, counter, let's say, positive is the development of the metal prices, which will increase our free metal gain position there.
And so therefore, we don't see a significant change between the first and second half. And again, our guidance with the EUR 380-480 at the moment, but we are conservative, is that we come in at the mid of the range.
Okay, can I just follow up on the contract book? So it's an annual contract book. And obviously, you have a September year-end. So you're protected one quarter into next year. But as a hypothetical exercise, let's say that TCRC's benchmark came from $80 and 8, and it was down at $60 and 6. Would you see the full impact of that change? Or do you have protection beyond that?
Yeah, we have some protection beyond that. But clearly, the first quarter of our fiscal year will be to this calendar term. So there will be no change. This is part of the contractual arrangements.
There's always a bit of a, let's say, swap over into the next calendar year. But to give you some guidance also perhaps here for the total audience, if you have a 10-point or let's say $10 difference in TCRCs, it's about an impact for us of EUR 20 million. So if I take your number going from 80 to 60, it would be on an annualized basis, on a 12-month basis, would be a EUR 40 million difference. But as I said, the first quarter of the next fiscal year is within this calendar year, so hence not impacted by any change of the annual benchmark.
And sorry, that impact is per quarter or on a full year basis?
Sorry, Jason. Total year. Total year. Total year.
Total year. For 12 months.
For a 12-month period. Yeah.
Yeah. And so sorry, just to finish up and last one, I promise.
If we look at spot TCRCs at zero, does that mean that your business can actually take spot TCRCs at zero? It's fine? You'd still have some profit?
Yes.
Okay. All right. That's great. Thank you.
Good.
And next up is Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank. The floor is yours.
Yeah. Hey, good afternoon, all. My first question is also on the concentrate market. And here, I just wanted to pick your brain on whether you think that we may be running into a scenario where the benchmark may potentially even be abolished and you may just enter a different business system with your customers and suppliers. That's my first question. Then maybe in relation to that, are you basically foreseeing any forced shutdowns anywhere outside China at this point?
Yeah, Bastian, thanks for your question. I think you are absolutely right.
This business model that the Chinese smelter with some international mining companies set the pricing for the total world is something which has been discussed in the industry, in ICIS, and so on. However, having said this, nobody has come up with a better idea at this point in time to have some orientation there. Again, given that we have very long-term, strong relationships with many mining companies, and we stated that we are buying concentrates from around 40 different mines around the world, we have a very strong, diversified network. We are also seen as a very important partner for many of the mining companies. We are very confident that we will get the concentrates and receive the concentrate at decent terms to operate our smelters.
To the, let's say, concentrate market in general, I think we have to be careful that we are not, let's say, overstating some of the events. If you look at what announcement of Anglo American with some production cost cuts and then the situation at Cobre Panama, how this disrupted the market, this was, for me, a very strong overreaction given in the huge concentrate market that we have in the world. And even with McKinsey and also CRU, they are estimating a different, say, a deficit in concentrates of about 1 million tons, which again, if you look at the total market, this is not a large number for so many smelters running around the world. And regarding the shutdown of certain smelters, the CSPT, the Chinese sourcing and procurement team, has announced some significant maintenance periods. That's how they call it in China for some of the smelters.
We'll see. For sure, there are smelters in China which are not profitable at certain TCRC levels, certainly not at the spot levels that we see today. But it's very difficult for us to judge what is finally then going to happen. Are they going to shut down or reduce production? I think it's important, talking about Aurubis, we enjoy a very solid and resilient business model with many different strong earnings drivers. So I would state Aurubis is the last man standing. We are a very strong player in the smelting industry.
Thanks for those comments. That also leads me to my next question. I think you recently gave an interview where you said that I think the industry may potentially have to consider a larger degree of trade protection also for the Western markets here. So what do you exactly think needs to happen?
Yeah, I think this is a reference to the recycling markets. What we see, and I referred in my presentation here to this, I would say, not level playing field that we see from Chinese player, that with arbitration of the Shanghai LME towards the London LME, that there is a benefit for them to offer very, very low terms, RC terms for metals, not just for copper, but also for other recycling and important metals in the European and the American market. I'm not asking for protection, but I'm always arguing we need to have a level playing field because we are competitive. We are really strong in what we are doing. We stand up and compete with any smelter in the world. But again, we need to have fair conditions in the markets.
Therefore, the idea is some kind of, let's say, correction if they are, and I use the word, if they are playing with metal prices in order to attract certain metal units into their region.
Okay. Then moving over to the recycling market, I think you mentioned that you started to see a couple of indicators basically suggesting that we may be at an inflection point. So what's really driving that confidence? I guess conceptually, given where metal prices are, one would also believe that the value in the scrap pool has just risen so much that there also should at some point be a larger degree of supply from that scrap pool. But what at this point is driving those signs of the easing situation?
I think what we see, yes, metal prices always help the recycling industry because it's highly attractive to do collection and processing.
So we see there is a direct effect of higher copper prices to the availability of scrap. First point. Second point, we see, and that's even more important, some better availability of, I would say, industrial residues, slags, slimes, whatever comes, metal-containing residues from the industry. We see some better availability. So some industries, that's our conclusion, some of our long-term partners are increasing or even restarting their production. Energy prices have come down. And there is the perspective that they will stay at a certain level, a lower level than in the last calendar year, which we also confirm. So therefore, we see an inflection point. We don't see in the moment that volumes availability is going down. It's rather the opposite, and again, supported by a good outlook or good pricing and a good outlook for metal prices.
Great.
Yeah, my last question is actually probably would have been one for Mr. Verhoeven, but it's actually on cash flow and working capital. Sorry that I'm throwing that at you. From my perception, I think the cash flow and the working capital in particular has developed quite a bit better than what you indicated, I guess, also in the last conference call. What are the net debt levels you're envisaging until the end of the year and have those numbers basically changed versus what you were hoping for earlier?
No, thanks, Bastian. You are testing me here. That's good. Rainer not there. No, cash flow really, what is development? We were assuming significant buildup of material for the standstill here in Hamburg, so anodes to keep our tankhouse running.
We have been able to manage this, I would say, a bit smarter so that we didn't have to build up these volumes at the beginning of the standstill. So therefore, it's a bit kind of a phased approach that we have found. So that was a very positive effect. And we have also on the investment, despite increasing our CapEx in the first half year, significant compared to the last half year. But we came in slightly lower in the numbers, mainly cash out, paying invoices and everything, not reduced progress, but really kind of less money to be sent to our supplier base. And I'm looking here at my team to help me on the number. So we do expect, given our significant CapEx with EUR 900 million, we expect a cash flow forecast of EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million for this fiscal year.
Okay. Understood. Thank you.
And next up is Ioannis Masvoulas from J.P. Morgan.
Hi, Ioannis Masvoulas from Morgan Stanley. Thanks for taking the questions. First one, going back to the outlook for recycling and the fact that you pointed the increased competition for scrap from Asian players, how should we expect that to develop into the second half, assuming the concentrate market remains even tighter? Would Asian players pull more scrap units to make up for the limited concentrate availability or not? And if that's the case, could it be an incremental negative effect for your business beyond just the exposure to treatment charges? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Ioannis. So outlook recycling, I think I referred to it. We are well supplied. Still there? So yeah. Okay. So outlook for recycling. So we, as I stated, are well supplied for our recycling plants into the last quarter of our fiscal year.
So we have been able to source the necessary quantities and at good, I would say, at good prices. What we see, given the size and the importance of Aurubis, that we are able to get really the materials that we need for our plant system. And again, our strength is that we have flexibility, that we are able to take recycling materials of all kind of mixture into our system, which means if we see some shortage for specific material qualities, we are able to replace them with other material qualities, specifically given our smelter network where we can shift certain quantities around. So therefore, we don't see any change of the situation for the second half. Again, we are supplied at decent terms for this fiscal year. And let's see what the Asian smelters are going to do.
There are also certain limits, how much scrap these kind of smelter can use as a replacement of their metal units. So there are also kind of production and physical limits, what they can do. So I think there is not worse to come. But again, our argument, my argument is we would like to see a level playing field, then we would be absolutely fine.
Very clear. Thanks for that. And second question, again, on recycling, if we look at the EBT in the first half of the fiscal year, you delivered EUR 75 million. And that suggests that you're tracking well into the upper half of the guidance range, and you could potentially beat the upper half. Could you comment whether you're being too conservative here or if there are any headwinds in the second half beyond the maintenance impact? Thank you.
Yeah. Yeah, no, good catch, Ioannis.
I think what is important, we are now in the real ramp-up phase in Richmond, which is a significant additional cost that was lower in the first half of this fiscal year and is higher in the second half. So there is a bit of a, I would say, a cost pressure or cost increase in the segment. But I think, as you know us very well, we tend to be a bit conservative with our estimates. And we'd rather surprise you with positive numbers than do the opposite.
Very clear. And sir, can you remind us the ramp-up cost that you're budgeting for Richmond in the current fiscal year?
Yes. So we estimate the ramp-up cost for this fiscal year at about EUR 30 million.
Great. Very clear. And very last one from me. We've seen several companies in the U.S. receiving grants, including for investments in copper recycling.
Do you expect Aurubis to benefit from U.S. policy support in the short term? If not, is it more of a medium- to long-term prospect? Just trying to figure out why Aurubis would not have benefited from these grants, given your very significant investment in the country over the past couple of years.
Yeah. Ioannis, we have started the project in Richmond because we see there are highly attractive markets. And this was started before IRA or other schemes have been put in place. And what we have seen since then has really confirmed our decision. It's a highly attractive market environment with very good conditions on the energy, on the whole, let's say, administrative and permitting side. So I think we are very pleased with the decision and the progress there.
We have applied, but we are not. It's a very complex scheme in the IRA where you get grants, where you get tax credits. We have talked with the authorities. We have also applied within certain schemes. But our project has so far not been taken into account, and it's not eligible for the IRA funding. Doesn't mean that's forever and that other investments and expansions that we are discussing or working on in the U.S. might be eligible. But as it stands today, we cannot take anything from IRA or other subsidies into account.
Very clear. Thanks again.
The next question comes from Maxime Kogge from ODDO BHF.
Yeah, good afternoon. So first question is on the guidance upgrade, yeah, because last time you said you were rather targeting the low end of the guidance. Now, it's a mid-range, so it's very positive.
But is it fair to consider that it's mostly driven by metal prices that have developed quite well over the recent months? Is it the major driver? Because at the same time, you seem to be a bit more muted on wire rod sales. I think you said last time that they would be higher than last year, and now they will be at the same level. So that's my first question.
Yeah, Maxime, happy to answer. Yes, guidance, we see we are now in the middle of the range. Metal prices are positive, have a positive impact, no doubt. But also general, we see a positive market environment for our product, for our cathodes, and also a continued positive or more positive outlook for sulfuric acid, as I explained also in my statement.
So that's certainly something we are, let's say, we have built our now better, let's say, higher guidance for the rest of the fiscal year. Regarding rod, very strong demand. And without disclosing, April was a good month, was a really good month for rod. And we have no indication that this is going to slow down. It's perhaps the point that our customers, the cable manufacturers, they also are running at very high capacity levels, utilization levels of their capacity. And we heard from some that they have order books for specific energy cables, which are 2-3 years already. And they are investing in increasing their capacity. So I think there's a certain inertia in the system until the new capacity comes on stream as they are very sophisticated and, let's say, complicated cables they are producing.
So we announced the long-term contract with Prysmian, I think, which is a good indicator that there is a positive outlook and increasing outlook for Aurubis in the coming years.
Okay. And a second one is on the fraud that you suffered. I mean, the criminal activity that you suffered last year, I think you still had to precisely determine what share of it related to theft, what share related to a collusion, and what share related to perhaps something else. Where do you stand in that respect? When are you going to finally determine, actually, the various drivers behind this?
Yeah, we have announced and repeated also today that the financial impact was EUR 169 million in the last fiscal year. Everything is behind us. We have booked. We have this in our last year's result.
And we have given some statements, some orientation about, let's say, the magnitude of the different criminal activities. But we are not going to disclose any more details about this. I think important is that we have now terminated the internal investigation. We have taken the necessary measures. Also here, we are not disclosing all the details on people who were involved so that we have also kind of separated from some of the persons in the company. And we have put significant lessons learned and measures in place so that we are highly confident that what happened last year is not going to happen again. And Markus is sitting next to me. And you know that when he announced this secondment from the supervisory board, one, besides safety, one of his key responsibilities and focus is to work on the security concept of the company.
And I think, Markus, if you want to comment, but we have made really significant progress in many areas there. So that's where we stand today. I don't know, Markus, you want to say a word or?
Maybe a couple of words, Maxime. I mean, under what we call Project SAFE, we have developed more than 300 measures, which have been already implemented or are under implementation or going to be implemented pretty soon. As Roland said, we are not going to disclose too many details because we don't want to give any recipes to the outside world. Because as we all know, as much as we can do, also criminals out there are improving their arsenal of weapons as well. But happy to have you here and walk around.
You can see the difference from like 12 months and now, literally, in what has happened on the site in Hamburg. But also, we take this as an opportunity to improve our overall level in our entire network. So we are progressing well and as planned on this project.
Okay. That's very clear. Yeah. And just the last one on TCRC for concentrate, sorry to ask you that. But we have seen negative prices, actually, over the past few weeks. And this was something that was not imaginable until very recently. And would you expect some smelters to accept to pay miners, actually, to get the concentrate? And yourself, would you be ready to pay for concentrate? I know you're not very active on the spot market, but I would be curious to have your view on that.
Yeah. Okay. That's an interesting question. Would you be prepared?
No, I think I'm not going to speculate what other market participants are going to do in which situation. I think it's always a very, very specific situation for different players. Again, looking at the fundamentals, this is, from our view, a complete overreaction of what's happening in the TCRC spot market. And things and also growth projects in the mining industry, also now supported by significant higher metal prices, are going to be accelerated. And therefore, things, demand and supply, will kind of balance out. And again, we are not speculating. I'm not speculating about TCRCs for the next year. But I don't think that we will see any benchmark numbers, which are the reference, at something like negative numbers. So I think this question will not be asked to Aurubis if we would accept something like that.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
And next up is Daniel Major from UBS.
Hi there. Can you hear me okay?
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yeah. Great. Thanks. Yeah. Just one key question, really. You said that the current suite of projects are on track. I think previously, you indicated there's EUR 440 million for the first phase, EUR 300 million for the second phase of the Richmond project. Is that second phase still in line with budget? Obviously, the first phase is nearly complete. Are you still confident in the guidance there for Phase 2?
Yes, Daniel. Thanks for the question. Yes, we are very confident because if you look also just look at the picture, we have already completed significant parts of the phase two, for example, the steelworks and foundation works and so on.
So that was the idea when we decided in 2022 to continue directly with the Phase 2, that we keep the construction site running and keep the contractors there on site and finish the work. So clear answer, yes, we are very confident that this number, also given on already work being done and contracts with fixed prices in place, that we will deliver Phase 2 within the set project financials and timing.
Great. Thanks. And then just one last one, if I may. You provided some sensitivity earlier around the treatment charge. Can you provide the same for the copper price? What does $0.10 a pound, $100 a ton, whatever you want to quote? Can you give any sensitivity on that through the metal result?
Yeah.
Danny, as we see ourselves more as a multi-metal producer, it would be a bit misleading if we give a single number on a certain metal. But I think if you look at the total metal gain, which we're disclosing, you can easily a 10% metal price increase for the overall portfolio of different metals would have a EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million impact per year. This gives you an idea. But please, please excuse and accept that we are not disclosing the details of our single metal positions in the free metal gain.
Perfect. Thanks so much.
At the moment, there are no further questions. So if you have any additional questions, please press 9 and star now. Any additional questions, please press 9 and star. And we have a question coming from Cornelius Kick from Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe. Over to you.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question.
I would just have a question regarding the TCRCs for the quarter that has just ended. If I have it correctly in mind, the benchmark was $80 and $8, which is lower than the previous year. So I'm a bit surprised that you reported higher TCRCs at Aurubis compared to the previous year. Could you maybe explain the dynamic behind that? That would be great. Thank you.
Yeah. Okay. No, good point. Good catch. You have to take the fiscal year versus the calendar year into account. And if you see the year before, there was a $65 and $6.5 benchmark. Then there was an $88 and $8. And then there was an $80 and $8. So you always have this kind of swing between the different quarters.
So therefore, we have in this first six months of the fiscal year, we have a better TCRC income compared to the period before.
All right. So that would mean that will be lower than for the next quarter. Is that right?
Yeah. If you take this just benchmark by benchmark, yes. But again, we are buying Concentrate above the benchmark level. We have contracts which are not linked to the benchmark. We have a very, I would say, portfolio of different and also complex with certain penalties and special treatment charges. So take it as an orientation, but don't take it one to one.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Any additional questions, please press 9 and star now. There are no further questions.
Okay. Then we close the analyst call. Thank you again for your attention. Have a nice afternoon and goodbye.
Goodbye. Bye.