Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the K+S second quarter 2022 earnings call. After some opening remarks by Burkhard Lohr, CEO and CFO, we will directly jump into Q&A. Some technical notes. Please refer to our disclaimer on page two of the presentation available online. A note on data privacy. Please note that the team session will be recorded, webcasted, and be available as a replay on our homepage afterwards. People asking a question in the team session have to be aware that by turning on their camera and microphone, they give consent to saving and replaying video and audio sequences. Now, I'd like to turn over to Lohr for the opening remarks.
Thank you, Julia. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our Q2 conference. This time I'm not going to deliver a speech, then we have more time for Q&A, but I would like to highlight three topics. First, our free cash flow. We had a very strong free cash flow development in Q1 and in Q2, but please take into account that we also had increased working capital. Only in Q2, we had a working capital of more than EUR 400 million additionally. That is due to the high prices and the high receivables, and that will translate into free cash flows in the months to come. We have seen already a very strong free cash flow in July.
Second, we have incorporated in our guidance a low triple-digit million EUR amount for the potential gas shortage in the course of this year. The third remark would be, agriculture business and fertilizer business still has a very strong environment, and we believe this is not only the case for the rest of 2022. Now, I'm looking very forward to your questions.
Thank you very much, Burkhard Lohr. As this question will be one which a lot of participants have, I would like to ask it before we start with a live Q&A. How do you assess possible impacts of a lack of gas in the upcoming winter for your German operations and costs?
Yeah, that's a very important topic, and I've mentioned the amount already. We have chosen a probable scenario. Of course, it's not the only scenario, but we believe that this is very probable. We have taken two items as of first of October. First of all, EUR 50/MWh additional gas cost due to Section 26 Energy Security of Supply Act. And we have assumed that there will be a shortage of 25% over the whole Q4, and this leads to the amount that I've mentioned.
Thank you for that. Ladies and gentlemen, you now have the opportunity to ask questions to us. If you would like to ask a question via Microsoft Teams, please use the hand signal and write your name and the name of your research house in the chat function of MS Teams. We will then call you individually, and you ask the question live. Please switch on your camera. One more request. As usual, we would like to answer your questions one by one. If you have multiple questions, please ask one question at a time, and we will answer it first. After that, you will have the opportunity to ask further questions. This brings me to our first question from Lisa De Neve from Morgan Stanley. Please unmute yourself, Lisa, and switch on your camera.
Hi. Good morning. I hope you can hear and see me.
Yes. Good morning.
I have two questions, and I'll just ask them one by one. The first one is, you had very good second quarter results, and it was really nice to see that you sort of reconfirmed your EBITDA guidance of EUR 2.3 billion-EUR 2.6 billion for the full year. Could you just share what's included in the lower end and the higher end of that guidance?
Yeah. Okay. You know that there are a lot of indicators who impact our earnings, but the strongest impact could come from the gas situation in Germany. When we talk about the lower end, then we see a scenario which is by far more dramatic than the one we have chosen. The same is true for the upper end. If there is no gas shortage, then we are going more towards the upper end. Of course, pricing, et cetera, are also impacts, but we are already in August, and so we are able to assess that quite well.
Okay. Thank you. My second question, then after that I jump back into the queue, it is related to sort of the low water levels in the Werra River. I'm aware you sort of carried out a number of initiatives to reduce your reliance on the Werra River, but would it just be possible to share how much storage capacity you have today and how much of that is used? So some details around that would be very helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. The situation is really extraordinary. We have always looked into the year 2018, but 2022 so far is much drier than it was in 2018. We have changed a lot in the setup of the Werra sites. You mentioned already the basins. We have roughly two-thirds filled of that, but we expect approval for another 400,000 cubic meters. That gives us a lot of flexibility. We have additional possibilities to store waters outside the Werra River. We have also managed to find ways to optimize our production on the Werra site to reduce the water impact.
All in all, we believe that we will manage even this extraordinary situation without any standstills.
Okay, thank you. Thank you very much. I just want to follow up. Your comments mostly related to the production. Are there any sort of other disruptions potentially on the logistical side that we have to take into account?
Yeah, logistics are very difficult. The whole European logistics system is under stress for many reasons. Gas and oil power stations are coming back into place, and we have to move coal, and the river flows are low. We are seeing impacts, but these impacts are already incorporated in our guidance that we are going to sell 7.5 million tons of potash products.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Our next question comes from Michael Schaefer from ODDO BHF. Please unmute yourself and switch on your camera.
Thanks for taking my question indeed, Michael Schaefer from ODDO BHF here. I have two questions. On the first one, given what you've baked into your outlook in the fourth quarter, admittedly you are the first to be that conservative on that end. I wonder on the gas savings measures or potential mitigation opportunities you have. I mean, you are consuming around 6 terawatt-hours in Germany on an annual basis. I wonder whether you can walk us through the short term and maybe more the midterm measures you can implement to reduce the overall gas consumption and hence the bill associated to that one.
And also linked to this, if you can elaborate on your KCF plant, which is consuming a lot of gas as well, whether you are in contact with the regulatory authorities, whether this can provide savings, as well. This would be my first question.
Yeah, thank you very much. Yeah, let's start with the KCF plant. Here we have no way to save any gas because we need that desperately to manage our water situation, especially in this dry summer. We have a lot of opportunities to switch fuels and sometimes with short notice. For example, in Neuhof, we have already oil tanks. We have oil tanks filled. Everything is ready to switch if necessary. In some other areas, we are not that far, that most probably will not be possible to implement before the next winter. We're going to do that anyway next year to be prepared for the following winter, which might be even more difficult than the current winter.
To give you one more example, we have a long list of measures. We have bought significant volumes of LPG stored in one of our caverns in Bernburg, and we want to use that in Zielitz. Therefore, we have to implement some measures that will be finished early next year, and then we would be prepared in Zielitz for a shortage situation for the winter 2023 and 2024.
Related to this one, can you quantify maybe with the kind of savings potential based on the 6 terawatt-hour we as a starting base?
Yeah, I wouldn't call it a saving measure. It's more or less to safeguard full production.
Yeah.
The costs, for example, LPG costs are available. It's going to be available, but it's costly. It's not that much cheaper than natural gas currently. Losing production is the most costly thing that could happen to us. That's why we prepare these measures.
Okay, thanks. My second question would be on your energy logistics additional costs which you have now, I think, raised at least verbally. I wonder when we entered the year, I think we talked about something like EUR 240 million of extra costs coming from that end. Now, we have already reached this level after the first half. I wonder whether you can shed some more light on the moving parts when it comes to logistics costs. What was the kind of excessive cost you are facing right now? And to what extent do you expect this to normalize once logistics is normalizing?
Yeah, I would take that question, Michael. We have written in our report that we see a higher triple-digit million amount for all kinds of cost inflation, yeah? That divides for sure into energy, logistics, and material. If you look at energy, you have the normal more than EUR 100 million that we always mentioned, right? For the higher rate that we secured at end, the 8%, yeah? On top of that now comes basically the low triple-digit million amount, which you could put into that box, which would bring you definitely to, yeah, more than EUR 200 million for that end. Logistics would be also more than EUR 100 million. This has not changed dramatically, only with an availability issue with all the dryness we discussed.
Material is also more than EUR 100 million, and that brings you to this higher triple-digit number in total.
Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks.
The next question comes from Alexander Jones from Bank of America.
Oh, perfect. Thanks very much for taking my questions. My first one please, on the extra gas costs you're now assuming. I think you've assumed a EUR 50 a megawatt-hour Section 26 charge. Can you give us any idea if Section 24 was to be implemented and you had to pay higher costs on some of your contracted gas, what additional cost headwinds that could present for you this year?
Yeah, thank you for the question. With the decision of the German government to implement Section 26, they also decided not to implement Section 24. Either you choose one or the other one. Economically, it's for us a better choice of the German government because we have nice hedges and they stay in place. We only have to pay an extra levy.
Great, understood. Then the second question on the potash outlook. You mentioned in your opening remarks that you expect this to be strong not just this year, but into next year. Can you give us a little more color on how you see both the supply side evolving and how much product out of Eastern Europe and also the demand side, given quite substantial demand destruction we've seen year to date? Thank you.
Yeah. Why am I so positive here? First of all, there is not a high availability of agricultural products. We see the situation in Ukraine, there's not much moving, and shortage all over the world. We see strong demand. Of course, I have no insights in what Belarus and Uralkali and Belaruskali are planning, but we see they are not in the markets. Uralkali might come back a little bit quicker, but Belaruskali with a capacity of 12 million tons out of a market of 70 million, it's a meaningful player, and they obviously have a problem far beyond 2022. In addition, with slightly lower prices, so profitability for farmers are increasing.
This is a very good environment, and that's why I see no reason why 2023 should not be a good year as well.
Great. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Christian Faitz from Kepler.
Yes. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, if I may.
Morning.
I will start with the first one. Can you shed some light on your energy costs in Canada? You flagged very well the European situation or German situation. How are your energy costs evolving in Canada at this point?
In Canada, we are hedged to more than 50% basically. The spot prices are, as in Germany, not hitting us short term. For sure, if you put it into the long-term DCF model, you also have the spot prices available and the hedges we do for that rolling time. Also here we have the three years timeframe applicable.
Okay, great. Thank you.
The prices, spot prices are increasing in North America as well, but of course not as much as what we are seeing in Europe.
No, no, for sure. We see that.
Yeah.
Great. Thank you. Second, demand destruction. I mean, first of all, I would like to ask you to do away with that myth of demand destruction in the potash market, because I just don't see it. Talking about demand in Brazil, how is the Brazilian season coming off in terms of heading into the application season? What are your sales people saying on the ground? Thank you.
Yeah. Yeah, that's a very important question. It's the demand started a little bit later than normal due to inventories which were available in the country and at the harbor. As we speak, of course, I always get an update before these conferences. We see a normal and strong demand, and we believe by the end of the year, the inventories should be on a normal level again.
Okay, excellent. Third and final question. You had relatively high hedging costs in Q2, if I'm not mistaken. Can you elucidate that a bit? Thank you.
Yeah, I can do that. That was related to the FX hedging basically, and also here we have a rolling system. As we basically secured 70% of the revenues at the beginning of the year, the open position which you have, because it's rolling, is rather towards the end of the year. That's why in the full year, we will see a positive net effect out of revenues and the hedging costs. At the beginning of the year, we basically had the negative hedges at around 1.13, 1.14, 1.16, yeah, against the good spot rate.
Okay. Thank you very much.
You're welcome. Thanks.
The next question comes from Markus Mayer from Baader.
Yeah, two questions from my side as well. I will ask them one by one. First one is on the free cash flow. You just said that free cash flow generation in July was strong as well. Maybe you can quantify how strong it was, and also your view on the second half of the year, in particular, what do you expect in terms of net working capital development?
Yeah, thank you for that question. Why should I hide that number? We had roughly EUR 300 million free cash flow only in July. So we are on a very good track to end up in the range between EUR 1 billion and EUR 1.2 billion. Always, please take into account, this is before the CO2 emission rights and before the end of the factoring programs.
Okay. Understood. Thank you for this. Second question would be, you stated that there have been price-related demand declines in Western Europe. Do you expect this trend to continue in the second half? Do you also see similar effects in other regions you're selling your products?
No, we're seeing that mainly in Europe, but that goes along with especially in the first quarter this year non-availability of Nitrogen. If you cannot apply Nitrogen, it doesn't make sense to apply potash. The way we had less demand but also no supply from Eastern Europe.
Okay.
It balanced, it was a balanced situation for us.
Okay, thank you so much. I will jump back into the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.
Hello. Hi. Can you see me?
Yes.
Yeah.
Good morning.
Hi, good morning.
Please.
Yes. One question on the use of cash going forward. Doing just basically to stay on the balance sheet?
A good question. No, I think the credit rating will increase by itself, it's only a matter of time. We have clear ideas what to do with our cash. One thing was mentioned earlier, and we do the utmost to increase the ramp up in Bethune. That is not much we can do due to the situation that we are solution miners over there, but we can spend some additional CapEx, which is very well spent. We have a major change if we call, because then we have approval by the supervisory board. We want to run that site with lower water residues, with less, with no further tailings heap expansions, with lower gas consumption and lower CO2 emissions.
Of course, that makes the Werra site significantly more competitive. This is a program over a couple of years, but consumes mid-sized triple million CapEx amount, which is well spent to let the shareholders participate in this good year.
Yeah, that's understood. Just coming back to potash, I mean, Q2 has been sort of the first quarter with massive disruption from Belarus. Can you share some color around which geographies did you allocate more tons? Do you expect this to continue in the coming quarters?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, definitely.
Yeah.
Good question. No, I think the credit rating will increase by itself. It's only a matter of time. We have clear ideas what to do with our cash. One thing was mentioned earlier, and we do the utmost to increase the ramp up in Bethune. There is not much we can do due to the situation that we are solution miners over there, but we can spend some additional CapEx, which is very well spent. We have a major change if we call, because we have approval by the supervisory board. We want to run that site with lower water residues, with no further tailings heap expansions, with lower gas consumption and lower CO2 emissions.
Of course, that makes the Werra site significantly more competitive. This is a program over a couple of years, but consumes mid-size EUR 3 million CapEx amount, which is well spent to let the shareholders participate in this good year.
Yeah.
That's understood. Just coming back to potash, I mean, Q2 has been sort of the first quarter with massive disruption from Belarus. Can you share some color around which geographies did you allocate more tons? Do you expect this to continue in the coming quarters?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, definitely.
Yeah.
Yes. One question on the use of cash going forward. Doing just basically to stay on the balance sheet?
A good question. No, I think the credit rating will increase by itself. It's only a matter of time. We have clear ideas what to do with our cash. One thing was mentioned earlier, and we do the utmost to increase the ramp up in Bethune. That is not much we can do due to the situation that we are solution miners over there, but we can spend some additional CapEx, which is very well spent. We have a major change if we call, because then we have approval by the supervisory board. We want to run that site with lower water residues, with less, with no further tailings heap expansions, with lower gas consumption and lower CO2 emissions.
Of course, that makes the Werra site significantly more competitive. This is a program over a couple of years, but consumes mid-size EUR 3 million CapEx amount, which is well spent to let the shareholders participate in this good year.
Thank you. The next question comes from Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.
Hello. Hi. Can you see me?
Yes.
Yeah.
Good morning.
Hi, good morning.
Please.
Yes. One question on the use of cash going forward. Doing just basically to stay on the balance sheet?
A good question. No, I think the credit rating will increase by itself. It's only a matter of time. We have clear ideas what to do with our cash. One thing is, was mentioned earlier, and we do the utmost to increase the ramp up in Bethune. That is not much we can do due to the situation that we are solution miners over there, but we can spend some additional CapEx, which is very well spent. We have a major change if we call, because then we have approval by the supervisory board. We want to run that site with lower water residues, with less, with no further tailings heap expansions, with lower gas consumption and lower CO2 emissions.
Of course, that makes the Werra site significantly more competitive. This is a program over a couple of years, but consumes midsize EUR 3 million CapEx amount, which is well spent to let the shareholders participate in this good year. Yeah.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Geoff Haire from UBS.
Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask a question. I just wanted to ask. Obviously, you've taken a stance that you expect to see gas curtailment in Germany. I think from memory, potash is quite key to food production and also to healthcare. Do you assume that you're not going to get any prioritization from the German government on gas supplies?
We had discussions with the Bundesnetzagentur, yes. Yes, there is a chance that we are not going to be affected, but we wanted to give you a flavor what that could mean if we are affected. Now, we have made that transparent. I think that is helpful. If it doesn't come, it's on top.
Yes. Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just a follow-up on the gas guidance. When we think about the 25% gas shortage, does that necessarily correlate to a similar cut in production? When we think about 2023, I suppose when you think internally, are you also assuming that production is cut by a similar margin for the entirety of next year? That'd be helpful. Thanks.
Yeah. When we cut theoretically the 25%, we of course use all opportunities that we have already prepared to compensate via energy, via oil there where it is possible and already prepared. When we look into 2023, first of all, we are not expecting production cut, gas supply cut for the full year. We might talk about Q1 and might talk about Q4, maybe even only one quarter. You cannot multiply that by four and we will have implemented more measures to compensate against this shortage.
Thank you. Just another follow-up on pricing. In your specialty portfolio, is it safe to assume it remains fairly stable?
Yeah. As you know, the SOP price has not moved parallel to MOP. That is due to the extraordinary high pricing. The premium is very small or almost fully consumed.
Next question comes from Oliver Schwarz from Warburg.
Finally. Thank you for taking my questions. Can you please elaborate a bit about your FX hedging rate for 2023 from today's perspective? That would be my first one.
Can you put the other one?
Yeah.
Because I have to.
He has time to Google the answer of the first one.
Can you talk about the anticipated, let's say, progression of labor costs, especially in Germany as the German mines are much more labor-intensive than the Canadian one is?
We always have a very good relationship to our unions and our work councils. Of course, they are expecting a higher increase than in the past due to inflation. That must not necessarily be in a percentage, but it could be a one-time payment. We believe that in total, roughly 4%, et cetera, could be feasible for next year.
Just to clarify, is it must not or need not?
Now, I don't remember the full sentence.
You say it must not be a progression, but might be, let's say a one-time payment.
Need not.
Yeah. Need not.
Okay. Got it.
I have the answer for the other one. The hedging quota basically is again 70%, and we are between 1.09 and a bit more than 1.10 here, in the range of best case and worst case.
Basically if the dollar stays at parity, what would additional costs be from today's perspective, simply from hedging at those rates?
Yeah. I would say as it was in the second quarter, the case basically in that quarters where we have the hedging, it levels out, right? You have the good positive effect in revenues and you have the same amount in minus in yeah on the cost side so that it levels out. Yeah. In quarters where you have the open position, then you have the chance to participate at that parity.
Got it. Thank you. Perhaps a quick one on China. That seems to be an outlet that is only used, let's say, when the demand in every other region is completely satisfied due to the much more unattractive price level. Is that something you want to continue in the future? Because I can't see any, let's say, major ties between you and Chinese customers develop on that basis.
Yeah, of course, we always try to optimize our netbacks and reducing the Chinese volume is an optimization due to the fact that you have mentioned already. Because of the product mix in Bethune, we of course have to supply some product into China, it was 1 million tons a year in the past. We are now rather talking about 600,000, maybe 500,000 tons. So that is the range in which we can move.
Thank you.
Welcome.
That's all from my side. Thank you for answering my questions.
Thank you very much.
The next and last question which I'm seeing is coming from Yining Wang, and I don't know the research house because I don't know the name.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. This is Yining from BlackRock. Just quickly, can you just quickly comment on your expectations on the capital structure for the upcoming maturities? Any plan of refinancing or buyback? Thank you.
Yeah, we have already bought back everything which was possible and available. Now we are waiting for the maturity in 2024 and 2023, sorry. We are not planning to refinancing this due to our strong cash flow. I indicated already that the cash situation in 2023 should be quite comfortable as well. Oops.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you. That's all.
Yeah, that was the last question. Thank you very much for your participation. You know, that investor relations is always available for you, and I'm going to, or we are going on the road, next week, and hopefully I will see one or the other of you. Thank you for joining us. We are going to continue this setup without rendering a speech in the beginning. I hope you enjoyed it. All the best to you, and bye-bye.
Bye.