SAF-Holland SE (ETR:SFQ)
Germany flag Germany · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
18.14
+0.88 (5.10%)
May 6, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H1 2022

Aug 11, 2022

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the SAF-Holland SE H1 2022 conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Please note that this conference call will be recorded and published on the corporate website of SAF-Holland SE. If a participant does not wish to be recorded, they should refrain from actively participating in the Q&A session and keep the microphone muted. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Michael Schickling.

Michael Schickling
Senior Manager Investor Relations, SAF-Holland SE

Thank you, operator, and welcome everybody to our H1 2022 results presentation. Joining me today are our CEO, Alexander Geis, and our CFO, Wilfried Trepels. Alexander Geis will start with the development of our regions. Wilfried Trepels will provide some more details on our key financials, followed by Alexander Geis again, updating you on our guidance and current developments. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. Today's call is limited to 55 minutes. Please note that management comments during this call will include forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release, and the presentation, and in our annual report. All documents relating to our H1 reporting are available on our website. Now, without further ado, over to Alexander Geis.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Thank you, Mr. Schickling, and good morning, everybody. We can look back on a very successful second quarter of 2022 and raise the outlook for the financial year, which we already announced, as you might know, on July 28 as part of an ad hoc announcement. First, let me start with the most important KPIs for the first half- year of 2022. With EUR 773 million, we achieved record sales in the first half of 2022, to which all three regions contributed. With an adjusted EBIT margin of 7.2%, we were below the previous year's level of 7.7% at the half- year point, but we were able to significantly reduce the EBIT margin gap compared to the first quarter of 2022.

The investment ratio was 1.4% in the first half- year of 2022, the same level as in the previous year. Due to the continued good business development and still tense logistics chains, the net working capital ratio increased from 14.8% to 17.4%, compared to the end of last year. Wilfried will give you more details later on. H1 cash flow from operating activities amounted to a positive EUR 18.8 million. Adjusted earnings per share improved by 21.7% to now EUR 0.84 compared to previous year. I will come back to the increase in the forecast for group sales and adjusted EBIT margin for the 2022 year at the end of the presentation. Let's start with group sales.

Group sales in the first six months of 2022 reached EUR 773 million due to higher demand, marking a significant rise of 27.2% compared to the previous year's EUR 608 million. After eliminating the effects of exchange rates and acquisitions, sales increased by 21.3% to EUR 737 million. All three regions contributed to the strong increase in sales with the Americas and APAC over proportionally, and our aftermarket business continued to be very strong. In the second quarter of 2022, group sales improved by 25.1% to EUR 403 million. After FX and M&A effects, sales increased by 17% to EUR 377 million. All three regions contributed to this, and also our aftermarket business, again, developed very positively.

Let's take a look on the different developments in the regions and by customer category. From the two top pie charts, you can see that our sales in the Americas outgrew the other regions, making now a solid 36% of total sales. The two lower pie charts show you the development by customer group. Especially in the trailer segment, we grew to a strong 60% of total sales now. This is mainly driven by a strong increase in air disc brake axle sales in North America, which, by the way, is very good for our aftermarket business in the following years. Speaking of aftermarket, we were able to keep up the high aftermarket sales share with 27% of our total group sales. Let's take a look on the adjusted gross profit margins.

In the first half of 2022, the adjusted cost of sales rose by 30% compared to previous year to now EUR 645 million. This was mainly driven by high steel prices as well as high freight and energy costs, which are passed on with the time lag. The decrease in the adjusted gross profit margin was caused by our EMEA region. Here, price adjustments and efficiency improvements could only partially compensate for the cost increases. In the second quarter, the gross profit margin improved significantly compared to the first quarter.

Adjusted cost of sales increased by only 25.9% to EUR 334 million, while the adjusted gross profit margin of 17.2% almost reached the previous level of 17.7%. The strong development of the Americas region, initial price adjustments in the EMEA region and the robust aftermarket business, we're already able to compensate for most of the cost increases. Now coming to the adjusted EBIT on the next slide. We were able to increase our adjusted EBIT in the first half of 2022 by 18.4% to EUR 55.6 million, compared to the EUR 47 million the year before. This means an adjusted EBIT margin of 7.2% versus previous year's 7.7%, and this decline is due to weaker performance of the EMEA region.

We will hear about that just in a second. The significantly lower admin and research and development cost ratios were able to largely compensate for the higher cost of sales ratios. Specifically in the second quarter, significantly lower admin and R&D expense ratios more than offset the higher cost of sales ratio. The strong performance of the Americas and APAC regions, a robust aftermarket business and price adjustments in the EMEA region contributed to the improvement in the adjusted EBIT margin from 7.8% to now 8%. Let's speak about EMEA. Sales in the EMEA region improved by 17.3% to EUR 423.5 million in the first six months of 2022, driven by a strong trailer OE business and our aftermarket.

Adjusted by FX and acquisition effects, sales growth of 15.7% to EUR 417.6 million was recorded. I would also like to mention that after a successful test phase lasting several years with over 500,000 km in a wide variety of climates on several continents, pre-series production of our SAF TRAKr recuperation axle successfully started in June 2022 at our plant in Bessenbach, and series production will also start this year. In the second quarter, sales improved by 11.6% to EUR 250 million. Adjusted for exchange rate and acquisition effects, sales growth of 7.9% to EUR 208 million was achieved. In addition to a strong trailer OE business, the aftermarket business also developed very positively. Coming to the adjusted EBIT on the next slide.

High steel prices as well as high freight and energy costs, which are passed on with a time lag, had a very strong impact on the cost of sales ratio and those on the gross profit margin in the first half of 2022. The lowest share of admin and R&D costs could only partially compensate for the higher costs. In total, this led to an adjusted EBIT of EUR 23.5 million, or 5.5% EBIT margin. Coming to the second quarter, even higher steel prices as well as higher freight and energy costs continued to weigh heavily on the cost of sales ratio and on the gross profit margin. The initiated price adjustments showed their first positive effect in the second quarter. The lower share of admin and R&D costs could again only partially compensate for the higher cost of sales ratio.

In total, this led to an adjusted EBIT of EUR 13.4 million on adjusted EBIT margin of 6.2%. Compared to the first quarter, this means an improvement of 1.3 percentage points. Nevertheless, and this is clear, we have to work on coming back and to recover our margins in the remainder of the year, and we already initiated some action plans. Now coming to a very good story, which is the Americas. In the Americas region, sales increased by 42.8% from EUR 194.7 million to now EUR 278.1 million in the first six months in 2022. Here, adjusted for FX, sales improved by 29.3% to EUR 251.8 million.

The trailer OE business achieved a clearly overproportionate sales growth and market share gains, especially in the brake axle segments. The aftermarket business again developed very solidly. Also to mention, in Mexico, the new assembly line for fifth wheels, for aftermarket fifth wheels, went into operation, enabling us to further expand our aftermarket business in North America. Coming now to the second quarter of 2022, I can report that sales increased by 44.6% from EUR 104.5 million to now EUR 151.1 million. Also here, adjusted for currency effects, revenues improved by 28.2% to now EUR 134 million. Here also, the sales growth was driven by a strong OE business and our aftermarket.

In order to meet increasing customer demand, we expanded production capacities for our trailer axles in the U.S., and we are already fully booked for the remainder of the year. Americas adjusted EBIT. Here you can see that the cost of sales ratio in the Americas region improved significantly due to lower material and personnel expense ratios, as well as price adjustments. In addition, the significantly lower share of admin and R&D had a margin-enhancing effect. In total, this led to an adjusted EBIT of EUR 24.8 million on adjusted EBIT margin of 8.9%. The improvement of the adjusted EBIT margin by 3.4 percentage points is due to the strong business development, efficiency improvements, and our strict cost discipline.

Our adjusted EBIT margin improved by 2.1 percentage points in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2022 due to higher volumes and the robust aftermarket business. This is a great development for us. Now coming to our APAC region, starting with sales again. So our APAC region generated revenues of EUR 71.8 million in the first six months of 2022. Strong growth. Adjusted for exchange rate effects, sales increased by 30.7% year-on-year to EUR 68.5 million. The main reason for this significant increase in sales was the strong growth in the trailer OE business, mainly in India, but also in Australia. The pace of growth accelerated again in the second quarter of 2022, as you can see.

The APAC region achieved revenues of EUR 37.5 million in Q2, which corresponds to a growth rate of 48.2% compared to the same quarter of previous year. Here, adjusted for currency effect, sales increased 39.3% year-on-year to now EUR 35.3 million. In order to meet the increase in customer demand in India, production capacities will be increased by 50% in the first step. We already reported during the last couple of Q announcements. The new production facility in Pune will start its operations during the first quarter of 2023. Last but not least, coming to the adjusted EBIT of the APAC region with more great news. Compared to the strong increase in sales, the increase in cost of sales was quite low.

The significantly lower sales and admin cost ratios also had a margin-enhancing effect. Therefore, our adjusted EBIT improved from EUR 0.9 million last year to now EUR 7.3 million, or to now an adjusted EBIT margin of 10.2%. Also here, the margin improvement of 8.5 percentage points is based on the strong business development, efficiency gains, and also here, strict cost discipline. The stable margin development in the second quarter of 2022 was based basically on the same factors. Basically, we clearly mastered the turnaround in APAC now. Here, I would like to pause for a second and hand over to Wilfried for a detailed walkthrough of our financials. Thank you.

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

Yeah. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Coming now to the profit and loss statement with the adjusted numbers. First of all, what were the adjustments? The adjustments in the first half of 2022 were EUR 6.9 million compared to 2021, where in the first half it was EUR 5.7 million. What is the content, and what's the difference? First of all, it is EUR 1 million, more or less the same for restructuring costs as it was last year. Furthermore, the EUR 4.6 million, which was also the same number in 2021, for depreciation of purchase price allocation.

In addition, in 2022, with EUR 1.3 million, that was due to the valuation of the put option for the acquisition of the outstanding shares in PressureGuard, which is a company which we will take over fully within the next couple of months. Alex has already elaborated a lot about sales and gross profit. Let's have a look here at the SG&A costs. The SG&A costs were, in percent of sales, very favorable. It was 9.5%, compared to 11% in the compared 2021 first half. If we look a little bit more in detail, we see EUR 73.2 million compared to EUR 66.9 million, which is a significant leap increase of 9.4%. Even higher, the increase was in the Q2 2022.

If you look to the right-hand side of this, sheet here, then you see the 16.1% increase. What's the reason here for? If we go back to the first half and the 9.4%, you can easily calculate this through, and you will find out that with round about one-third of the cost in the U.S. dollar region, we can calculate round about 50% of the 9.4% are due to the U.S. dollar effect, which was just by the way, 1.093 in the first half 2022, and in the first half 2021, it was 1.205. A significant leap increase.

The other 50%, which is 4.7%, is the real increase when we compare the first half 2022 with the first half of 2021. The next line shows the share of net profit of investments accounted for using the equity method. This is our joint venture, FWI, in France and in Mexico. We have this cooperation now since decades, and you see also here good development also there. They are doing nice profits here in a good environment. All of this leads to the EBIT, the respective EBIT, which was already discussed by Alex in detail. What about now the finance result? You find it two lines below.

Finance result is EUR 3.3 million, significantly lower by EUR 1.1 million compared to the first half of 2021, where it was EUR 4.4 million. All of this is coming also out of the Q2 numbers. If you have a look on the right-hand side, you see EUR 0.5 million compared to EUR 2.7 million. The difference is EUR 2.2 million, and this is mainly due to FX profits, 50% realized, 50% unrealized. This ends in the results before taxes, and let's have a look to the income tax. The income tax is quite stable to EUR 26.8 million compared to EUR 26.7 million. Turning now to the next slide. We see the equity development as well as the equity ratio.

Let's have a look first at the numbers in EUR before we get to the equity ratio. Now you see that the equity was increasing since December last year from EUR 371.1 million to EUR 431.1 million end of June this year. This is an increase of 16% respectively EUR 60 million. Where does it come from? EUR 31.1 million are coming from the usual profits contribution of the period. EUR 34.4 million from the difference from translation because of the FX situation, and another EUR 10.2 million of other comprehensive income. Let's have now a look at the balance sheet. The balance sheet went up from EUR 1015.3 million to EUR 1,156.4 million end of June.

This is an increase of 14%, and this is mainly because of the acquisition of the Haldex shares to prepare the merger and a further increase in net working capital. Coming now to the equity ratio, you see that the equity ratio went up from 36.6% end of December last year to 37.3% end of June, which is only an increase of 0.7 percentage points. This is due to the fact that, as I said before, the equity increased by 16%, but unfortunately the balance sheet increased also by 14%. Coming now on the next slide to the net debt EBITDA ratio. First of all, I would like to address the question to myself: Where do I feel well as a CFO of a company?

I need to say that this is if the net debt to EBITDA ratio is below two. We have achieved this now since a couple of quarters, this is, however, a good development. Having said this, I'm also a strong believer that this target should be reached also after a potential acquisition of Haldex, of the combined group. The combined group has to be at the net debt to EBITDA ratio of two or below in 2024. Where are we today? Today, if we look to the numbers, the EBITDA went up from EUR 114.3 million in Q2 2021 compared to the Q2 2022 with EUR 131.6 million. This is an increase of 15.1%.

On the other hand side, the net debt increased from EUR 200 million end of June 2021 to EUR 238 million, which is an increase of almost 19%. Overall, the company has a strong gross liquidity position and we have sufficient financial headroom for further growth. Coming now to the elements of the net working capital. Starting with the inventory. The inventory, as the stocks are going up due to higher volumes in the business, the company buy higher safety stocks and this was leading to higher days inventory outstanding and higher stock levels of now EUR 237 million. Furthermore details to this number. We see a big potential here because we have achieved in the years before better numbers.

Why were the numbers in 2021 and 2022 not as they should be? Because we had a really difficult situation in the supply chains. Now we see a normalization of these supply chain issues and therefore we need now to work heavily on a reduction of the inventories. Our target is clearly to come to numbers which we have achieved before and if you look to the bar, the first bar in the inventory chart here, you see the Q4 2022 level, it was 58 days. Assuming we would have achieved 58 days also in Q 2022, we would have at least here a potential which is a little bit below EUR 50 million, exactly calculated EUR 46 million.

We would like to achieve here at least more than 60%, which we would like to realize until the end of December of this year. If we look to the trade receivables, there we see not a very specific development. They are in total with EUR 184.6 million up due to higher business levels. When you look to the days sales outstanding. This is a good development. Let's view here to the trade payables. The trade payables have been above 60 days, which was always a good number for SAF-Holland. We are now down to 51, 58, 53, and we are now going to achieve a better number back to the 60 days. Why is it now not in our favor?

Because we have also paid our liabilities a little bit earlier due to the situation that it was difficult to get the material in as we wanted. Consequently, we find on the next slide the development of the net working capital. Net working capital is too high, and it reached an all-time high level of 17.4% in percent of total sales. I talked already about the developments here. Just what I want to say is that we have now in our Cash- is- King program a continuation with a strong focus on inventories to reduce the days of inventory here and the days inventory outstanding.

We have defined in July the targets for each legal entity and for each plant in a legal entity, and we have done this for OE as well as for the aftermarket business. Coming now to the results of what we have seen before on the next slide, the cash flow. The cash flow was EUR 18.8 million compared to first half in 2021. Not so bad, with EUR 18.8 million compared to EUR 50 million. But the question is, why do we not get more cash out of an EBITDA of over EUR 70 million? How to measure this. The cash conversion rate of today and compared to last year is 26% and 22% the year before. If we are able to manage our net working capital better, we would get clearly a better cash conversion rate.

I think that it is necessary to do because we are today hiding our cash flows in the inventory. The target should be here to get to a conversion rate of 60%-70% as potential. Looking now to the free cash flow development. The difference here is CapEx as well as the acquisition of the Haldex shares, and therefore from a EUR +18.8 million net cash flow from operating activities, it turns down to the opposite of EUR -18.7 million for the free cash flow. The difference is CapEx was EUR 10.1 million, and the acquisition of Haldex shares was EUR 28.4 million.

The same is when you look to the quarterly development, EUR 24 million was positive, looked quite well, but it also turned down to EUR -8.7 million due to EUR 5.3 million CapEx and EUR 28.4 million for the acquisition of the Haldex shares. I would like now to hand over back again to Alex for the outlook 2022.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Thank you, Wilfried. Now let's have a look on the market expectations for full- year 2022. Basically in the commercial vehicle markets relevant for us as SAF-Holland, the outlook in 2022 remains favorable. CLEAR industry experts expect a 7% decline in production for the European trailer market as a whole due to weaker production figures in Eastern Europe, which still would be on an all-time high. Heavy truck production is likely continue to be affected by limited semiconductor availability and some supply chain interruptions. We have not seen any major order cancellations in EMEA, and I can report that our fabs in Germany are fully booked into Q4, and Turkey is fully booked into the year 2023 already, with a continuous high order intake.

For North America, ACT expects trailer production to be robust for the full year, which we can confirm, while truck production is likely to continue to be impacted by the limited availability of semiconductors for the remainder of the year. However, also on a very high production rate. Brazilian truck market with no further growth to be expected in 2022, but also here remains on a very high level, which is good for us. The Indian trailer market should grow by 69%, another 69%, according to estimates by SIAM, which is also a very positive development for us, since, as you might know, we are the clear market leader in trailer axles and trailer suspensions. As said before, we are increasing our capacity there, specifically in India, as reported before, to keep up with the high demand we see there.

Now coming to the outlook, what does that mean for the full year of 2022? Based on preliminary figures for the second quarter of 2022, we, the management board of SAF-Holland SE, has decided on July 28 to raise the guidance for group sales and adjusted EBIT margin for the financial year 2022. The implications of a potential massive energy shortage in Germany have not been considered, as these cannot be reliably determined or quantified at present. Based on the current order backlog and the projections for both the macro economy and the industry, the management board is forecasting, after weighing up potential risks and opportunities, that group sales for the full financial year of 2022 will be in a corridor of between EUR 1.4 billion and EUR 1.5 billion.

Based on these assumptions, as they follow, now projects an adjusted EBIT margin of somewhere between 7% and 8%. To support our strategic objectives, we are planning investments of 2%-2.5% of sales for the 2022 financial year as well. The focus of investments is to increase existing production capacities in Turkey and India, as well as a new greenfield operation in Mexico. Furthermore, the company plans to keep investing in efficiency-enhancing measures, mainly in Germany and in the U.S. With this, we close our presentation. Thank you very much for listening, and we are delighted to take your questions. Thank you.

Operator

Dear participants, if you would like to ask a question now, please press nine followed by the star key on your telephone keypad. In case you wish to withdraw that question, please press nine followed by the star key again. The first question comes from Jorge González Sadornil, Hauck Aufhäuser.

Jorge González Sadornil
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Hauck Aufhäuser

Hello. Good morning, Alexander and Wilfried. Thank you very much for taking my questions. My first question will be around your expectations for trailer in EMEA for the full year. In the table that you have shown us, it is shown a fall for the region of 7%. I was curious, what is the expectation for your production? Which range are you taking into consideration? In connection with this question, if you can comment to us a little bit on the difference between the assumptions of your low range and high range guidance for 2022, please.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Okay, I'm gonna take the first question with the trailer development in EMEA. Well, yes, basically, the forecast is -7% for the whole year of 2022. Please take into consideration that 2021 already, at least for us, was the absolute record year with the output of trailer axles being supplied and produced and being supplied in the EMEA region, and mainly the European region, of course. We are coming from a very, very high level. We saw a good, great Q1, also Q2 was pretty good. We reported already that we are fully booked until the end of the year in the two German production plants, the axle production facilities we have. Turkey's already booked into Q1 2023.

There specifically for the Turkish plant, we see a quite high and stable order intake, specifically for our axles for Europe. This is one thing I can report. Basically, to summarize it again, the two plants in Germany are booked until end of the year. Turkey is booked into Q1 2023 with a very high order intake. From a personal perspective and what I get in talks from fleets, they're waiting a little bit for further investments, okay? This order intake is coming in, but don't forget there was really a shock in the second quarter. All the prices increased dramatically. Steel, scrap, flat steel, rubber, freight in, out, everything. Everybody was a little bit nervous. We see orders are coming in, yes.

Not at the pace as we saw it last year in Q1. Again, to summarize that we are booked out, and we see a very successful 2022. Does that help?

Jorge González Sadornil
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Hauck Aufhäuser

Of course, yes. Yeah, my second question was around the assumptions implicit in your guidance, especially between the 7% and the 8% EBIT margin. Also, just as final question, if you can give us your opinion on next year outlook for trailer, especially in the U.S. What are your expectations if you think we might see a couple of softer quarters with the economic slowdown or if in the same way than with the truck industry, if you think the aging is going to help to see a business at the same levels than we are seeing now. Thank you very much.

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

Okay, your question regarding the spread of 7%-8%. If we look to the numbers of today, the first quarter was showing 6.4%, second quarter is 8%. Overall, we are now at 7.2%. We have seen very strong development, as Alex explained to you in India, Australia, but especially in the U.S., top line as well as quality of earnings are quite good. As Alex also said, our books are filled, also the books of our customers are filled in the U.S. There is no doubt from our side that the Americas will run further good. Also supported by the Brazilians. You might remember that we have bought KLL a couple of years ago.

After a certain time of integration, they are now on a very, very good level, and they are producing good top line and also.

Excellent profits. On the European side, we have seen also, that was shown by Alex, that the prior Q1 EBIT margin was 4.9%. We were able to increase to 6.2%, and we are hoping that this is going further due to two aspects. One aspect is the further positive top line regarding the quantity, because we have increased prices and the price increases are coming through. On the other hand side, we hope that the supply prices go back. We saw a slowdown in the price increase. We hope that it will turn into further decrease of prices for materials.

From this perspective, we believe that we can do 7%-8% for the total year in 2022.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Jorge, let me add, before I come to you, to your question, specifically to the trailer industry in the U.S., also add some more light here. You can see from our figures that we clearly now achieved a turnaround in the Americas. If you go back many, many years, like 2015, 2016, you remember that we had always, like, 8%-9% margins in the Americas, and this is a margin level we would feel very comfortable with. Internal issues, we struggled a little bit 2017, 2018. Now we did the restructuring. The team is doing a great job over there. As you can see, the reported Q1 and also the Q2 result is really favorable. Check mark. APAC. Losses last year. This year, first quarter, 10%-ish. Second quarter, another 10%-ish. Also good development.

Please don't forget, we still struggle a little bit in China. We reduced the losses heavily, okay, but we are not happy with our China operations. What we did, we took some new experts on board, and they are gaining momentum. We got some bigger deals specifically for air disc brake axles. They want some special projects in China. We restarted some export activities. The clear target is for next year to get better, to reduce the losses further and achieve break even. If we would be doing this, then there is a big potential to go back, or not to go back, but to even increase the margin. Possibility is there. The biggest trigger is EMEA. Go back the last couple of years, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, even 2020 double digit.

We struggle now this year because this massive increase, specifically in Q1, and then another massive increase in Q2 in all kinds of costs and the time lag of passing on this. This is a big burden, and I think this is a big burden not only for us, but for everybody in the industry, because you cannot increase prices from one day to the next. You have contracts. There's a delay in the quarter, six months. We're heavily working on that. There should be the clear target, of course, to come back to normal margin levels in EMEA. If you would be doing this, EMEA back to normal levels, turnaround achieved in Americas, as you can see now with the two good quarters in APAC, then we should be really successful going forward.

This is one comment from my side. U.S., I'm very much involved myself in the trailer development in the U.S., not only for existing business, like for mechanical suspensions, air suspensions, but specifically for the air disc brake. Why is that the case? There is room for improvement. The market is growing. We want some more tenders, big tenders for air disc brake axles equipped on trailers. We for sure think that the air disc brake will further increase the share of air disc brake in the future, in specifically North America. We can see this. We are market leader in air disc brake. We wanna keep that leadership and grow with the whole market. Therefore, we already now in summer, in July and now in August, increase our capacity in our existing axle plant in Warrenton, which is close to St. Louis, to keep up with the demand.

Here we are fully booked until end of last year. From talks with the trailer manufacturers, some of them are booked in Q1, some of them already in Q2, and especially trailer manufacturers until middle of next year. I don't see a huge drop or possible huge drop specifically in that industry, because you still have the tariffs for China imports, which boosts the economy in the United States or in North America, specifically in our industry because of the 25% import duty. There is another big hurdle for container chassis export from China and U.S. is basically came to a standstill because you have to pay more than 250% import duty.

All the North American trailer manufacturers picked up this additional business, and now building their own trailers. I'm very happy and keen to get more orders also for 2023, and this is why I said we increased slightly our capacity to match the demand, which comes in with a good satisfying margin. Plus, air disc brake population creates a much higher, better aftermarket business, not only from a sales perspective, but also from a margin perspective. This is why historically Europe was better in margins, because we had this really high volume and good margin or this aftermarket with a good margin. I'm optimistic and positive for the trailer development in the U.S. or North America for next year.

Jorge González Sadornil
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Hauck Aufhäuser

Very, very helpful for both. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Philippe Lorrain from Berenberg.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I've got, like, a few. If I can come back to the comments that you are making on the EMEA trailer market, and you are saying that 2021 was an absolute record year for you. Perhaps you can put a bit in context like the overall market with regard to historical levels and also past peak levels.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Well, what I can say, Philippe, good morning. This is Alex again. What I can say, it was a record year when you speak about the European output, okay? The best output year before in terms of numbers of axle was 2018. So in 2021, we increased by another roughly, yeah, close to 7%-8% on top when it comes to total axle output or production. And that was really good. We already now, in the first half year, increased it further, okay? Another record levels in total output. Even if now, this is what I said before, the market would be going down by 7% in the whole year of 2022, this would be pretty good and still on a very high level.

We are planning with that. Our plants are running, as I said, are booked until end of the year or Q1 next year. We run six days a week, 24 hours. Happy to do so. Meanwhile, the supply chain constraints are a little bit better, okay? We have more access and better access or timely access to our components, which makes our planning much better. The efficiency should come back also in the second half year. This is why I said before, even with a -7% or decline of 7% to be expected for Europe this year, this is still a very satisfying number for us. You can see that from the numbers. Now we have to work on the EBIT.

I explained that before, but I could say is that we come back to normal levels as we showed the last couple of years as well.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Sure. Thanks for the precisions. It was just to try to understand as well how the volumes could develop, perhaps into next year because you were speaking about the fact that customers have been perhaps, like, a little bit on a wait-and-see mode. However, it seems overall like the moods would be relatively cautiously optimistic, if I understand your wording. I was wondering whether we were like peak and perhaps, like, facing a more significant contraction or whether we could be at peak and perhaps just plateau or even, like, slight increase over the following years.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Well, I don't have a crystal ball, and speaking of 2023, specifically a trailer in Europe, we do our planning, as I said, we are booked 06/2024 in both German plants. Order intake is okay. We have a high backlog of orders on hand. That's a good thing. I have to say, everybody was shocked in the second quarter. You know, after this Ukraine conflict, the war started and all the raw material prices just skyrocketed. The whole industry was really shocked, and it was crystal clear that also the end user, the ultimate user is the fleet. They are shocked as well because they had to face all of a sudden price increases in a double-digit region.

This is a big thing to swallow. The market is there. Transportation goes on. The volumes are there. Infrastructure projects are going on. If we would only see a plateauing in 2022 and 2023, we would be really happy to see this.

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

Perhaps we can also have a look at the situation in Russia, respectively Ukraine. The impact was here, especially for the standard trailers, curtainsiders. When we look who is mainly impacted, we can see that these are the big ones who are producing these massive numbers of curtainsiders as Schmitz, for instance, or Kögel. As you might know, our share in both customers is quite small. It's also a question if you look at it from a little bit more detailed perspective, then we are, let's say, in this moment, benefiting from this. On the other hand side, to say we are not so much influenced by this -7%.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

That's a very, very good add-on, actually. Just to follow up, like, a little bit on that. Did I understand that correctly, that you were mentioning a second price increase in the double digit in EMEA on your side for the products?

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

No, I didn't say that. I said that due to the shock of the markets and the heavy price increases when it comes to raw materials, specifically in the second quarter of 2022, the end customer, the fleet, had to face a double-digit increase in the cost of a truck, for instance, or of a trailer, for instance.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Okay. Perfect. I understand that.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Our big thing here in EMEA, Philippe, is the time gap. We are not destroying our good relationships with long-term customers just because of one quarter, okay? We stick together. We are partners. We wanna go into the future with them. Basically, there were talks. We found solutions suitable for both sides, and this comes with a time lag. You see that our Q2 numbers in EMEA were already much better than the Q1 numbers. Let's hope, and we are working very hard on this, that we can increase further our margins for Q3 and then for Q4, and then ultimately, in a timely manner, come back to a normal margin level in EMEA, like we have seen in the last couple of years.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Would you agree on the statement that perhaps the pass-through of the input cost inflation is much quicker in the Americas and APAC than in EMEA? If yes, why is that?

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Can you say it again, please?

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

I was wondering if you could confirm that the passing through of the cost inflation happens quicker in the Americas and APAC than in EMEA. In EMEA and if yes, why is that?

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

No, I cannot confirm that. That's basically the same time period between. This massive increase in inflation already happened in Americas in 2021. It didn't so much happen in the full- year 2021 or beginning of 2021 in EMEA. It really accelerated the last quarter, inbound, outbound freight, materials, steel, flat steel. It was basically starting Q4 2021 in EMEA. It already started beginning of 2021 in the Americas. The team in our team in Americas had basically a six to nine-month gap, and they started much earlier than we needed to start in the EMEA region.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Okay.

Alexander Geis
CEO, SAF-Holland SE

Now we are back on a really good level in Americas, as you have seen, with a high single-digit EBIT numbers. Now, as I said, we are working heavily, and we're already working since Q1 on this, in the EMEA region. Then Q2 came and there was another acceleration in cost inflation popping up.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Mm-hmm. Okay. That's it. Also, like, following Wilfried's comments on the margin target for this year, the 7%-8%. Do I understand correctly that you are baking in the guidance that some of the input costs are coming down? Or are you just anticipating stabilized, let's say input costs for the purpose of the guidance, but you hope, of course, in order to reach perhaps even better numbers that input costs will come down?

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

Yeah. What we are seeing is that actually the price increases are still there, but they are going down, so they are not increasing further. We see that on the steel side significantly, but it takes also time that it is passed into our components and our products. That is the reason that we are expecting that this will go down because it's a simple consequence. Also, as we have time delays on the customer side, we have also time delays when it goes down on the supplier side. But anyhow, yes, we are hoping that this is going down and it has a certain effect.

Not a huge effect, but it will have a certain effect to get to the 7%-8%. Yeah.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Mm-hmm. Okay. I guess the fact that energy prices are still on the rise is just like, perhaps like, a smaller portion, of course, of the component price on your side.

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

Yeah.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Okay. Good. The last question for you as well. You were mentioning a 60%-70% cash conversion target, but I think that was when you were more focusing on the operating cash flows. What metrics are you looking at when you speak about the 60%-70% cash conversion target?

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

I look to the adjusted EBITDA, which we are reporting, and this was around EUR 70 million. Cash conversion rate should be 60%-70%. Look, if we would not have spent all the money into the inventories, there is a potential of EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million to be added to the cash flow. Then you come easily to such a number where we also have been in the past.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Yeah, sure. I was just making sure that I was looking at the right metrics. It's adjusted EBITDA versus operating cash flow.

Wilfried Trepels
CFO, SAF-Holland SE

Yep.

Philippe Lorrain
Associate Director of Equity Research, Berenberg

Perfect. Okay. Thank you.

Powered by