Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. A very warm welcome here in Hannover from our TUI campus for our second quarter 2025 results presentation. My name is Nicola, and I'm Group Director Investor Relations, and I'm here with our CEO, Sebastian Ebel, and our CFO, Mathias Kiep. We are very pleased to report a strong set of numbers which exceed expectations. With that, I have the pleasure of handing over to Sebastian and Mathias. Sebastian, you go first.
Yes, thank you very much. Happy to present the Q2 and therefore the H1 results to you. The agenda is like we do it in the past. I will give the operational and strategic highlights. Mathias will dive into the numbers. From my side, the trading outlook and a short summary. The Q2 is the weakest in our year's performance. We always say you can't win the year, but you can lose the year. Therefore, we are pleased with what we have seen and what we can report on. Justin, we will hear it quite often today. This quarter has a strong impact by the shift of Easter. Last year, Easter was in March. This year, it was in April.
That has two effects: the big Easter business moved into April, and the booking, which is normally starting strongly after Easter, also shifted into April and especially into May now. We do see that global travel demand is robust despite all the geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. With these uncertainties, our focus is very much on margin protection and on cost reduction. The one or the other were with us at the Capital Markets Day in Madrid. We got a lot of positive feedback, and we are very thankful for this feedback. We explained to you our strategy for creating the global curated ledger marketplace, where we do see significant progress. We also promised not only the improvements on cash flow and balance sheet, but also to define the shareholder return strategy at the end of the year. That is what we will do.
The most important part of our presentation today is that we can reconfirm our guidance for this year and for the medium or longer term, the 7%-10% EBIT growth. If you look at the summary, we delivered EUR 3.7 billion revenue plus 1.5%. As said, Easter was a couple of weeks later in April, and an underlying EBIT of EUR 207 million, which was mainly driven by the Easter holiday shift into Q3. Holiday experience remained very well on track. Another strong growth quarter and a strong demand looking forwards for our unique and differentiated products. The market and airlines, we had a good late market in 2024-2025, with bookings up 2% and ASP 4%. For us, it is very important. It is very important. You see it for summer as well, that we keep the ASP increase of 4% to protect margin. Summer is on last year's level.
Again, this is the effect of having a strong look on margins. You see still here slightly lower, - 1%. What we have seen is what we had expected after the 1st of May, a strong increase in booking. That is what is coming, what we do see now, which makes us very confident for the rest of the year. As said, it's important that we maintain the 4%. I will talk a little bit later also about dynamic, because this is now with the implementation of the direct links to airlines and to hoteliers picking up a lot. In summary, we have seen an increase of EBIT versus last year if we adjust for Easter. As said, we can reaffirm our full year 2025 guidance, which, by the way, not every company can do.
If we look into the details, you see a strong hotel result, slightly EUR 10 million or EUR 14 million down. This is not an operational. Operationally, the hotels do very well. It's revaluation effects only, because you have seen the strong increase of the euro, at least till a couple of days ago, and that has impacted this result. Operationally, it's very strong. You see it. Occupancy has been very strong for this quarter without Easter, and the rate is also with 4% nicely. Cruise also doing very well. You should have in mind that we had the Relax naming and putting into service in March. This has always a cost effect, and the benefits will come from April onwards. Therefore, it's a great result from TUI Cruises and from Marella. The occupancy was on the same level. We had a Suez itinerary impact, but that has been minor.
Again, the result is great. I'm really happy about what we do see in amusement. Of course, I know we know that this is a smaller business. We have seen a significant halving of the losses in the first half year. Why is that positive? For two reasons. One, putting everything into one customer base now sees the first impact with the first product set, which is amusement, cross-selling, upselling, which works very well. Therefore, we are very confident about the amusement activity. We want to grow profitable. We don't want to grow just for the sake of growth. We want to grow profitable, and that we do it through cross-selling. And of own experience, where we grow, had grown 18%, and we will see strong growth also for the coming quarters.
If we look at market and airlines this quarter, if you take the one-time effects out, Easter, and we again have the ETS effect, which we had in the first quarter, the benefit will come in the fourth quarter. We are on the same level or maybe even operationally slightly better. This is important. Again, we invested significantly in retail, so this is a satisfying result. What is really excellent is the growth of the app. If someone uses the TUI app, there were just new releases. We will now bring every month new releases, and this will have a significant impact. This is really getting great. In this quarter, you have not seen yet the big increase of the dynamic packages. That is what we see when we look forward. There is a significant increase, especially in the U.K., not 10% or 20%. It is even bigger.
It's still driven by the Ryanair connection. Every month, we will put more and more airlines to the dynamic product and also the direct link for the hotels. This will make a huge shift. We did the first country in the Nordic, and it will also come in summer. We have seen what we had expected, a significant growth. That is the two sides of one coin. We want to be very careful on the wholesale to keep the margins and to grow with all what we bring now in the market on dynamic. Of course, retail is important. App sales are very important. The 10% we achieved today is a significantly higher share in the U.K., and that's what we will also achieve in the other countries. Some iconic things which are also bringing color to the sheer numbers.
We were able to celebrate the 20th hotel in Asia. There's a very strong pipeline, which makes us very happy, which is a great success of the team. It's not only China. It's Vietnam. It's Cambodia. It's Thailand, Sri Lanka, and so on. The Global Hotel Fund, a vehicle to get more hotels into our ecosystem, acquired a hotel in Jamaica. The hotel fund, just to reiterate, we have a 10% ownership. This hotel is run and operated and managed by Royalton, our 50% JV out of Canada. We had the successful expansion of the Mein Schiff Relax. The next ship will come next year. What is amazing is, if you look at Mein Schiff 7 Relax flow, in capacity increase of 45%, the booking level is on the same level as the years before. This is amazing.
You know we secured two slots for two new vessels, unfortunately only for 2031 and 2033. On the other hand, it is good that the yacht capacity is so limited. We are working on the ownership structure, and we are exploring partnership options as presented before. One also nice step, we extended our collaboration, or we started our collaboration with Oman Air with a very successful activity with Qatar Airways, doing very well. This now we will do also with Oman Air. Other white label partners will follow. It is our product. We are the tour operator or the offering. The sales is done with and through Oman Air. With this, we get new customer segments in new areas and generate additional revenue. By the way, these are passengers with numbers which are not in the numbers we have given you before. App share 10%, 40% up.
The U.K. now getting to 20%. It is a great achievement. I just saw yesterday the new release. It is getting really nice. Also the cross-selling, the location-based services you can see now on the front page. A lot of good stuff. I have in my office the version which will come month by month, and that is good. By the way, it is the same for web, where we also can improve a lot what we have. This will come in the third one. It is the dynamic packaging. Sustainability is in our mind. It is not a fashion for us. Whatever the outside world think, we stick to our SBTi targets, and we will deliver our SBTi targets. Why? It is sensible because the customer wants it. Second, the commercial business cases are very good.
We can deliver not the one or the only. It is not a contradiction to commercial sensibility. It is a proof. A good example is the new Mein Schiff Relax. Here we said dual fuel engines. It is the same fuel. One is the traditional LNG, and the other is the eLNG, which is produced out of biogas, so carbon-free. This can be used there. If you look, that is really interesting because I quite often get the questions. eLNG three years ago was eight times as expensive. Two years ago, it was four times as expensive. This year, it is only two times as expensive. Because of the oversupply of gas due to the reduction, it is also getting a commercial sound business case. That is why we invest wherever it is sensible to achieve our targets. After a lot of words to the numbers, Mathias.
Thank you, Sebastian.
Good morning to everyone also from my side. If I may summarize in this part, in this section, as usual, on the half year before we then come with a view to the rest of the financial year booking statistics and then the view on the guidance. I will hand over to Sebastian for that again. I am very pleased with the quarterly development. As Sebastian said, we are up year- on- year if you exclude the impact for Easter. As you know, Easter, the two weeks that we had last year in March now moved to April, which is our third quarter. This volume peak and this margin peak now moves from second quarter into our third quarter. I think it is fair to say that our April operational view confirms this. That is really pleasing. Structurally, let me highlight two things.
As part of the capital markets day, we could reconfirm that TUI Cruises will pay a dividend of at least the amount that they paid in 2019, so at least EUR 170 million. Secondly, we could also reconfirm that our UCAM pension scheme is now fully funded and that these payments will stop with our fourth quarter. Going forward, 2026, we'll have that benefit. On Marella, I'll summarize separately all the effects. Again, that is what we discussed at the capital markets day, but I would like to take the opportunity to bring that all to you again. Now, on the quarter, if I may, and then to P&L cash flow and balance sheet for that, you can here very clearly see the impact Easter had that's pronounced in markets and airlines.
This minus 40 consists of a minus 30 Easter and around minus 10 from translating into the new currency rates. If you take currencies, that is the 10 million FX translation, then you are effectively flat for Markets and Airlines. The rest is in line with what Sebastian said. If you look overall for the half year, we are now 30 million up. If you adjust for Easter, it is around 60 million. With that, that is of course a great cornerstone towards our guidance for the full year. With that, highlights P&L, cash flow, and the balance sheet. On the P&L, I think first of all, the revenue growth, that is really great, plus 8% for half year. That shows leisure irrespective of what is going on in the world. This is highly prioritized.
Our customers have paid 8% more to us than they did for holidays, and they have invested in more holidays with us, and we have generated more revenue. I think that's really great news for us and for the sector. The second part is EBIT. We talked about that. If you move down, then you see that interest expense, which has improved in the quarter again, but then even more so for the half year. A minus EUR 180 million compared to a minus roughly EUR 210 million of expenses that we had last year, same time. That benefit is something that we believe we can carry forward to the full year. We have lowered our guidance from EUR 385 million-EUR 415 million in P&L interest to something which is now EUR 355 million-EUR 385 million, so EUR 30 million lower. Where's this benefit coming from?
It's primarily interest income because, one, interest rates have decreased much slower than this was anticipated and how the market looked at this a couple of months earlier. Secondly, also our cash management and all the initiatives that have been driving month by month, they're really paying off. With that, you have a bit more volume, but in particular, better rates that yield a better interest income. Again, we see this EUR 30 million benefit coming through for the full year. Now, with regard to cash flow, you see the same. Interest cash flow for half year around EUR 130 million compared to EUR 165 million a year before. Again, we lowered the guidance here. Two other points to highlight. One is working capital for Q2. You see effectively the same working capital development than in the quarter before. We're very pleased with that.
Again, we had a very good development already in Q1. Half year overall, also with the Easter shift, is really in line with our plans and even ahead of that. I am really pleased with the working capital discipline in the company. Interest, we discussed. We need to look at net invest and lease payments. If you look at the half year numbers, they look high compared to the full year guidance, but we see a couple of phasing effects there where we had more payments and more projects in the first year. The net invest, as we discussed already in Q1, more to the high side, so at the upper end of the range, at the EUR 680 million. We need to add Marella here. I will come to that in the second because the pre-delivery payments will be triggered in the summer.
The lease and asset amortization is in line with our plans and forecast, as I just said. We stick to this 0.5-0.6, again, as discussed already in Q1 at the upper end of this range. Now, the balance sheet has slightly improved, which is good. Cash flow translates into this 0.1 improvement. You may remember we had a bigger improvement year- on- year as of the 30th of September. In the first quarter, we reflected the additional aircraft deliveries on the balance sheet. We highlighted that here, that kind of took that benefit away. Now we are moving back forward based on the Q1 balance sheet, which is again in line with our plans.
The net debt should overall therefore improve slightly year-on-year because again, that effect of the additional aircraft deliveries directly on balance sheet we've had in the first quarter and we work against that. Now, coming to Marella and then to capital allocation path. Marella, again, for those attending the Capital Markets Day, nothing new, but I just want to highlight two things. One is the ships are ordered. The shipyards have accepted and reconfirmed the slots. I think that's a really great achievement. If you look at the performance of Marella, that's great to see the future perspective for the business. The deliveries will be 2031, 2033, so well in the future, you could say, unfortunately from a ration point, but at the same time, this gives us further time to prepare for this from a balance sheet perspective.
Therefore, it's important to ask that we confirm this focus on a robust balance sheet and a robust balance sheet, make sure that net leverage further decreases significantly below the one times. This remains unchanged because that prepares the business for the refleating option. Otherwise, it would have not been possible to do this, to be honest, and wouldn't have made sense. At the same time, as Sebastian said, partnership structures, that's something we continue to evaluate on that basis. I think we will do whatever is the best for the company. In terms of the capital allocation summary, again, that's something we shared at the capital markets day. We get this question a lot, you know, when is there a dividend communication, etc. We have had a very structured journey on this. This is something I just wanted to reiterate.
We said first we want to operationally bring the business to a level where it makes sense to look at dividends that I think we have achieved with 2024 record results. Now, with half year, we can reconfirm our guidance for this year with 7%-10% increase in profit. On that basis, you could say this ticks the box on, okay, this is a sound basis to define a dividend or capital allocation strategy, capital return strategy. Secondly, on the balance sheet, the leverage has already come down and came down to 0.8 with 2024. The rating agencies on that, we received the B B from Fitch. Standard & Poor's and Moody's also upgraded their ratings. That is also something we wanted to achieve before we enter on the internal discussion in terms of how will that strategy look like.
We will start the internal discussions and then, as our earlier communication, have the discussion with you and communication in December. On that basis, looking forward, I think, Sebastian, the basis is the booking intake. If I may hand over back to you.
Thank you, Mathias. Maybe one thing I would like to add to what you said. The Easter effect, which was negative in March, we have seen positively in April with a very good April. One thing is to talk about the negative effect. Important is that we have seen the positive effect in April. If we look at holiday experience to the hotel area, the capacity has the same as last year. Occupancy is even up by 1%, and the daily rate is plus 8. To answer the question, it has gone backwards a little bit.
That is pure translation because the dollar rates, which are very significant and important for us, have become, due to the strong euro, slightly lower. That is why nothing to do operational. It is very strong. Hotels are full. Rates are great. On the cruise side, capacity increased 23%. Huge increase. Occupancy at the same level. It means that practically the hotels, the cruise ships are almost sold out. Even with a daily rate of plus 2%, which like for like is even bigger because we have more ships in lower yield itineraries. To TUI Musement, significant growth, high single- digit or small double- digit we will see. Important here again is also to protect profits.
We're investing less in new customers, and we are investing more because that is almost for free in cross-selling out of our customer base we have built and selling own activities which have a higher margin. This is a very nice picture. When we look at market and airlines, winter ended how we had anticipated at +2% on bookings. Again, important has been the ASP to cover the cost increases. That was in line with what we had expected. When you look at summer bookings, this is from 4 May. They would look differently, more positive if we would take the numbers today. What we had anticipated was that after 1 May, Labor Day, bookings would accelerate. That apparently is the case. You may remember from last time, -2% in the U.K., now zero.
If I look at today, it's a significant positive. If you look into it, we had the strategy on the wholesale. We wanted to protect the margin. We even decreased the risk capacity to make sure that we get the margin we need. The growth is on the dynamic. If we look at the latest dynamic, it's a significant two-digit numbers, more than 10% or more than 20%. Looking forward now, we will bring a set in the coming month, right? The main driver was Ryanair and easyJet. We will bring more and more airlines month by month. Which is also very important, we're bringing in more direct connection to hoteliers. Our product portfolio will fuel the growth and the margin on dynamic packaging is very nice. ASP Germany has now also improved.
Again, in Germany, we put a lot of effort in keeping a margin that is very important. As the risk capacity is slightly less, we feel comfortable as well. We have sold roughly 60%, which is the good message. The challenging message is it is still 40% sale. The good thing is we are on the same level as last year. The starting point is good and we should manage it, especially because the ASP is 4%. This is what we want to keep. There is a very strong focus on dynamic growth, getting more into more to the customer on margin production and on cost reduction. I mean, we think now with rolling out global platforms, it is now the right time. I mean, we have always been cost conscious, but now it is the time to take the synergies or the benefits of the platforms we have built.
That is a nice effect for the future. We will report on that in the next or the overnext quarter to give you a full picture, but it will be significant. Again, the focus is on ASP because we are in a higher cost environment. Although inflation is slowing down, there are also currency effects which we have to overcome. A solid statement with a good outlook with dynamic packaging, with more products and new customers, and a strong focus on securing margin. Having said so, we can reconfirm the revenue and the EBIT guidance. We are looking forward and working hard to achieve what is needed for that. As said, in holiday experiences, the bookings are very good. We feel also comfortable on market and airlines, but still 40% to go.
We feel comfortable to confirm, reconfirm the guidance. Not only short- term, but also middle term, medium term. Do you want to say a few words on the other? I think you did so.
Yes, I think, as you say, we covered the elements. If you think also on the components, as you said, cruises with the additional capacity that will be a building block going forward to hotels. You looked at the KPIs, very strong building block for the coming quarters. Now we have Easter in Q3 and all these effects where the summer will be important for markets and airlines. I think taking a step back on the components towards the 7%-10%, that is why we can reconfirm our target today.
Perfect.
Summary, as Mathias said, we can confirm the focus is on accelerating profitable growth, improving profitability, a strong eye on the margins to strengthen balance sheet and a strong focus on cash flow. We are now getting closer to where we can commercialize the benefits of what we have built into the system.
Thank you, Sebastian. Mathias, I think, Sami, we are now available for Q&A.
Thank you very much. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Othmane Bricha from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
First, on M&A summer bookings, can you comment on competition in Germany and what you're seeing and how much that impacts your bookings? Also, you've mentioned that bookings today on M&A would look better if taken today versus early May. Would you be able to tell us what booking volumes would look like now? A second on revaluation effects on both hotels and the other segments. Can you please quantify those? Thank you very much.
As said, the booking pattern is later because of the Easter shift. It's not only the Easter shift, it's the closeness to the Labor Day, which had an impact. This now is 10 days. If we would see that for a longer term, we would be very happy. We have not anticipated that, but let's see.
Therefore, to give a 10-day impact is maybe too short-minded, but it has been a significant impact. On the hotel side, as said, without the revaluation effect, the operating result would have been higher than the year before.
Thank you. On the other segments?
Yes, on the other segments, we have this translation effect. I think this balance sheet impact that Sebastian mentioned that we had in Q1, positive and now a bit negative, that's primarily in the hotel segment. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi there. Can you talk? I mean, I know you were asked about it, I think, slightly in the previous question about competition within Germany. What are the dynamics in the German market that arise from the disappearance of FTI?
The second question would be, and sorry, I was not at the Capital Markets Day, but can you help me understand how does the growth in dynamic packaging play out on the mix effect and hence on the average selling price?
If you look at Germany, we have been very careful because there were reasons why FTI went into insolvency. The reason was quite often a three-digit million euro loss per year. In a way, this market segment where they had been was never a very attractive one, as said, FTI with high losses. Margin protection means for us that we do not go into segments where we can hardly earn money. We will do so more purely on the dynamic packaging, and that is now to come. In a way, it is the similar thing in the U.K.
In the U.K., again, we had to implement the technology to offer that. We see a significant growth in dynamic. It will come in the next quarters, in the next year, and that will slightly change the picture. We have seen small effects in the summer. As I said, - 2% now, plus zero, plus. This is mainly because of the success of the dynamic product. Looking forward in the future, I think it's important to have a wholesale package where we really make significant profit because of the product uniqueness. The rest will come from dynamic, and that will be a growing and significant part and should not stop by 10% or 20% or 30%.
Our next question comes from Richard Clarke from Bernstein. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Yes, thanks. Three questions, if I may.
Just if you look at your booking position being down 1% for the summer at the 4th of May, and you're talking up dynamic being very strongly with the Ryanair partnership. Is it fair to say that your risk capacity bookings are down year-on-year? Maybe what is the level of that negative trend on the risk capacity? I guess if we've got a later booking window and you're holding risk capacity into that later period, how should we think about the sort of ASP evolution from here? You're up 4% so far. Is that number likely to come down given this pushback in the booking window? Thirdly, slight change of direction. Marella, you've called it a refleeting. I guess we've got the information on the new ships, just the phasing out.
Which two of the five ships are you going to phase out and in which years? I know it ages off, but what happens beyond 2033? Are you going to keep the other three ships going? They're going to be getting towards sort of 30 years and more in age.
You're right when your assessment on wholesale and dynamic. We thought that it would be good if we reduce the risk capacity and take the benefit from the dynamic. This not happened because we sell now less of a capacity which we had on the same level as last year. We voluntarily reduced the wholesale capacity, the risk capacity, to make sure that in a competitive market, we will not lose out and to replace it by risk capacity.
As said, we are in the middle of the process and adding the dynamic content, and the benefit is still to come. On the later booking profile, again, it relates to the question you had. We do the utmost to keep the ASP, and that was the reason why we reduced the risk capacity. We are confident that we can have the ASP as we have it now. And Marella, refleeting, are you intending to grow the fleet? It's a very interesting question. Probably not probably, it's definitely not the right time to answer. In a way, we were nicely surprised by the success of Marella also this year. Of course, the ships in 2031, 2033 will be again older. On the other hand, what is the right capacity? We will decide then. From today's perspective, there are two options.
You could take them out and give it to other lower-end markets, or you could keep it refurbished in the market. This is something we have to decide two years, two and a half years in advance. That means in 2028, 2029. Today, the conservative view would be to take them out and replace them. The two ships, the more positive view would be to keep them in the market because the market is still growing. Let's see. It's a positive momentum, and it's good that we can decide later.
Thanks. Sorry, just a point of clarification there. You said that your risk capacity is now actually running down for the summer, not flat.
It's slightly down on what we had compared to last year, yes.
Okay, thank you.
Our next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much. Can I please ask on hotels? I think the reoccupancy in Q2 was down 4% year-over-year. All the other hotels have occupancy up 1%, so I'm guessing it's maybe not that much easier. What is really driving this discrepancy and what are your expectations for reoccupancy in the second half of the year? The second one, just going back at the guidance on hotels pricing on occupancy back in February, Q2 came weaker than expected. Also, the H2 was revised down today. Now, could you help us a bit with more details? What draws these downwards revisions? Was it effects? Occupancy was also revised down. Any more details there?
The last one, if I may, one of your tour operator peers in the U.K. called out a bit weaker demand for Spain as some U.K. tourists are avoiding the area due to protests. Do you see this trend in your hotels' numbers, in your hotels' bookings at all? Thank you very much.
Maybe that was a misunderstanding. We did not revise the hotel numbers. We see a very strong year. It will be a record year again. It is all going extremely well. The reoccupancy has two effects because the business was doing so well that we kept hotels longer open because you have a cash break even of 50%. Keeping hotels longer open, even in the season where there is less demand, is good to have.
The ASP, which 8% is strong, yes, it's lower than the quarter before, but it's mainly a translation of not only it's exclusively a translation of dollar into euro. Otherwise, in the same currency, the rates would be higher. The expectation is very, very positive on the second half to it. Concerning Spain, the good thing in our model is in tour operating, if one market is less strong, you move to another market. I wouldn't expect a significant weakening of the Spanish market. I would more expect something on the same level because Mallorca is fully booked. It's very difficult to grow. What we do see is that other destinations like Egypt, like Cape Verde, like Tunisia, Bulgaria, small destinations, are doing very, very well. That has nothing to do with the protest if there would be a decline.
I do not see it yet, but if so, it would be more because the islands are, to get new bedstock is not easy. Of course, when people look for the best deals, it may be a good alternative to go to other destinations. Nothing which really is of concern. I think it has definitely nothing to do with the protests.
Thank you very much. Could I add one small follow-up? I guess, can you comment a bit more what you are seeing in your Caribbean hotels having roughly 50% of rebeds out there? Have you seen any weakness in occupancy or in pricing in your bookings or in your results over the last months?
The summer is safe. When we look at the forward bookings, if we look at the rates, it is safe. This is speculation.
It's not something we can report on. If there would be less demand from the U.S., that's probably the question you wanted to ask. What we do see is strong demand from Canada because they now choose different destinations. By the way, there is a market like Argentina, which always has been big for the Caribbean, which completely lost out the last three, four, five years due to the economic crisis of Argentina. Now, Argentina, the improved situation on the economy means people are traveling from Argentina. That's why it's a very stable business that there might be, might be. I'm not saying that it will happen, a shift in where the customers will come from. Of course, what I always saw, and that might also happen, the long haul was always more challenging if the dollar was very strong. We almost thought about parity.
Now we had one day at 120. Now I think we are back to 111, 112. This will help, which will probably bring more European customers to the Caribbean if there are beds. The problem always was that prices were high and there were no beds. That is why this combination also, we think medium- term, the good occupancy and the good rates will stay. As I said, the impact you saw on the rate is purely on the exchange rate, dollar to euro.
Thank you very much.
As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Jane Amistry from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about EBIT for the full year.
Now, if you look at H1, underlying EBIT grew 14%. Q2 ex-Easter and currency was broadly flat. You have maintained guidance for 7%-10%. Are you assuming kind of flat to low single-digit EBIT growth in H2? Why is the run rate so much lower than Q1? My second question then is, could you quantify the currency impact for the full year if the spot stays where it is on EBIT? Third question, just related to Andrew's question. When you think about growth in dynamic packages, is that EBIT margin accretive? How should we think about it on an EBIT per passenger basis versus wholesale? Thank you.
Second quarter was up if you take into account the Easter shift. By the way, as I said, we had some one-off or three last year ahead in the second half, like the ETS.
That's why also the Q2 operationally was up. Mathias can maybe give you more details. I mean, let's see what the second half brings. I mean, we are in a world which has higher uncertainty. I think it's right to be cautious and to see the outcome. Maybe Mathias, you can add something, but I will ask the third question first. The margin on dynamic is depending, is there a lot of supply on the airline air seat side or less demand? What you do see is that at the moment, there is a lot of capacity available. Therefore, every day earlier we can connect an airline, we are very happy to have so. That doesn't mean that it's the same every 12 months. There can be peak summer month where it's more challenging to get capacity for a reasonable price.
Overall, it's significantly margin accretive. That should also answer the question on EBIT by PACS. At the moment, and especially in the shoulder month, it is a very attractive product. Maybe Mathias, you answer or you can add something on the first part and especially on the second question.
Yes. Thank you. Thanks for the questions. I mean, if you compare why our expectations for the second quarter compared to our expectations for the first quarter, I think, as Sebastian just said, on the first quarter, on the first half year, sorry, we are really like for like up. This, of course, contributes well towards our guidance. I think that's a key cornerstone. At the same time, the key quarters will be Q3 and Q4 in our second half of the year.
Now, in terms of what are the effects that we are going to see, one is the shift of Easter. We have already adjusted for that because we like for like talk about the improvement. Second is what is happening then in Q3 and Q4 by segment. On cruises, we will see the additional capacity in TUI Cruises coming through. That will be clearly a benefit. In Q3 last year, we had the Suez impact. That will be clearly a benefit not having it again. At the same time, fourth quarter was very strong for cruises last year. That is something where we do not expect that this will be a massive further improvement, in particular for the U.K. business. If you think about hotels, then I think the available bed nights, they are just flat because there are not additional projects coming to life over the next six months.
We see growth. We see the rates. We see the business developing well. At the same time, the overall capacity does not move in the next quarter. We see markets and airlines. Amusement, amusement will be, I think, this recovery and further growth of the business we will continue to see. I think that is a bit the cornerstones of our guidance going forward. FX impact, we have seen the translation impact throughout the full first half of the year. It is EUR 25 million now that we see if you would calculate our numbers today at constant currency of last year. Thank you.
Thank you. Are you seeing a transactional impact from the weaker dollar on fuel purchases?
I mean, like many of the other competitors, we took the opportunity to hedge further out. Actually, by the way, the same for the euro.
The short-term impact is very limited because our currency policy is to hedge in advance. Yes, we have an impact of the remaining 10%-15%, but all the other was hedged because we do not want to speculate with the currency and with the dollar. The benefit will be at the outer year and in the next years if we would assume that the $65 per barrel or the $ 118 would be the lower end or the upper end when it comes to the euro to see.
Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Conroy Gaynor from Bloomberg Intelligence. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thank you for taking my question. Perhaps first of all, it still seems like we are in a stubborn environment for cost inflation.
Could you perhaps comment on where you're seeing that inflation going forward over the next 6 months- 2 months? Is this related to specific components such as wages or maintenance, or is it related to specific regions? The second one would be on the U.K. I know we spoke a little bit about the German dynamic, but perhaps if you could talk about how you're seeing the U.K. consumer and competitive dynamic shape up this summer and perhaps how that ties into some of the booking trends you're seeing there. Thank you.
Cost inflation. What we do see is if you take the currency effects out, it's now stabilizing, I would say, looking forward to 2.5%. We don't need the big ASPs.
That is just, and of course, there are countries which are very interesting to look at. High inflation in Turkey, the currency not devaluating the same. This is a challenge. On the other hand, you have outside the EU, which are benefiting from the, or not we are benefiting from the strong euro. I think the impact we had seen before is not there anymore. If you look at other cost types, the airline costs, the metal costs are fixed, which is good because they actually are rising. If you look at maintenance, a lot we do in-house on our own. Overall, I think it's, I mean, every percentage is a challenge, but it's a very different and normal challenge compared to what we had to do. The U.K. consumer trend, I think this is a trend almost everywhere.
When it comes to unique products like the Robinson Club, like the TUI Cruises, like the Robinson Club, there is a good wholesale contract drives a lot of profit into it. When it comes more to the long-tail product and when it comes more to access to airline seats, the dynamic in today's environment is a very attractive product. That is what we do see in all the other markets. I do not think that the U.K. is so different to Germany, but there is a Nachholeffekt , a catch-up effect there. The U.K. customers have to fly, I mean, when they go to Europe and they want to go to the Mediterranean. Therefore, I think in today's world, dynamic packaging is a very attractive market segment as the wholesale is, as long as it is linked to exclusive products. We are getting this balance more and more right.
There were reasons why TUI in the U.K. was less profitable than our big competitors. For the first time, I have the confidence that we are able to catch up and the capability to do dynamic. By the way, it is even more important in the Nordic market where this is a very dynamic market, is so important. It will become more important, which is why we said curated marketplace. We want to offer our customer, not we want, we are offering our customers products which are unique, which are exclusive, which are strong. By the way, it is not only hotel, it is also service or transport or experiences.
Thank you. Thank you.
We currently have no further questions. I would like to hand back to Sebastian Ebel, Chief Executive, for some closing remarks.
Thank you. It was a good start the first half year.
As Mathias said, Q3 and Q4 makes the difference. We have taken a lot of good steps to achieve the guidance. We have on the hotel side, on the cruise side, on the amusement side, we can see, I shouldn't say we are almost there. You are there when you are there. It seems to be that we do not have to do a lot. I mean, everyone has to do a lot, but slightly less on market and airlines. We have to do, we have to take in another 40%, which is on the same level as last year, but it is still to do. Important for us to get the margins with the risk capacity, but we are very cautious and to grow the dynamic. With the dynamic, it is a great, as I said, significant two-digit growth, but it is more to come.
We are just rolling out the technology. Ryanair in December was the first. I now think we have done 300,000 packages. Now British Airways, all the other airlines need to come. What is also important, not using wholesale contracts only, but also having direct connect to the hotels is very important. This in a combination keeps us, despite all what we do see geopolitically and pressure, keeps us very confident that we can achieve our guidance. Is it too conservative? Is it too aggressive? I would say it's not aggressive. We are confident. The rest, we will see. Thank you very much for being with us. Maybe one or the other have the opportunity to use our app for summer vacation. We would be very happy to get feedback. Thank you very much. Thank you.