Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Aug 13, 2020

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the TUI AG Conference Call regarding the COVID-nineteen Update and FY '29 ms Results. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen only mode. The floor will be opened for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Friedrich Huisen and Birgit Koenigs. Please go ahead. So good morning, everybody. So we are in a little bit of a special situation, not only because of COVID but also because we are in different places everywhere. So Bergen is in Belgium because of current sales requirements. I'm in the sort of and we have our central team in Hannover. So it's a little bit of different logistics. But I think we can make it work very well. One of the changes we are doing is actually that I have to announce which pages are on because then it's flipped through by our systems. So if we turn to Page five. I think what we can say in the last quarter, we have actually done a successful restart of operation. And particularly then leading into July as well as August, the restart was of the size and stature that it generate immediate working capital inflow. And as you recall, one of the bigger problems was actually to repay customer prepayments, and that is something which now is actually fixed. Fixed. So customers have actually received the repayments, and we are azure on that. And also, we have enough working capital inflow to work on that. What we also said and what we did was we reduced significantly the cash fixed cost to a level of below 70%. And therefore, we expect Q4, based on what we see, so the quarter which has now started July, August and September, to be broadly cash breakeven on an operational level. Anyhow, the situation is still volatile. And there are the cash the travel warnings coming in or going out and advisers coming in and going out. So therefore, we applied for a stabilization package with the German government and agreed yesterday an amount of €1,200,000,000 If we need it or don't, remains to be seen. But plan for the best plan for the worst and hope for the best. We are now in a situation that we have secured enough liquidity for winter and the time thereafter. That is something which is really reassuring. And that's, of course, something which now lets us focus even more on operational level, which is important. Now booking numbers itself, particularly for summer 'twenty one, are extremely strong, 145% up compared to the previous year. That's a very good indication. And I come to that in the detail, how that unfolds into new booking and also amendments from this year. The good thing is also, by the way, that a lot of us want to say, even with the amendments, the price per booking are up. So it's not only big volumes, but it is also on a very good price level. Now assuming that actually everything goes well in 'twenty two, we see a normalized business, which we believe we will have more debt, Of course, we will look at the balance sheet restructuring. But particularly, also, we have launched this 30% overhead cost savings program, and we are now disclosing that we will be doing more than €300,000,000 per year structural cost savings. And I have brought with me major projects, a couple of projects, five projects, which are carrying almost 300,000,000 of the more than 300,000,000 So therefore, it's also good for the follow-up and future disclosure of our savings program. Now that's opening. When I look right now on Page six, we have been the first to start the business in many instances. And that was June, particularly from Germany, fully integrated model. We could agree, for example, in Mallorca, but also Portugal, to open the corridors, what we call the safe corridors. And we were actually the first one also opening hotels worldwide. The first one right now doing or one of the first one, I have to say, there's one other small cruise company associated with it. But of the major cruise companies, the first one to open the cruise business again. And so we could actually, through the integrated model, make integrated decisions to restart the business. That was helping a lot. And when you turn to Page seven, what you see is that June was small, but in July, we actually went to 2,300 flights. In August, we are now at 4,200 flights, which actually will be even increased a little bit in September. Our program will be 30%. And when you turn to the next page, I think it's even more reassuring what you see for July, and these are the numbers for July. You see we had 563,000 customers already. And the thing which is very important as well, our booked load factor was 89% on the aircraft. So when you start the business, the most important thing is that you get the demand supply equation right in order to manage your costs. Of course, your costs will increase because you are using the fuel, you are unfurling the people and so on and so on. But you need to do it in a way that's adequate to your demand. We had a load factor of 89%. August will be also very good. And that is, as we believe, a result of our integrated model that actually the capacity planning and the control of the whole value chain allows that to happen. Now that said, turning to the next page, I think another reassuring message we believe is that health and safety protocols and relaxing holidays are not a contradiction. We agreed with the destination countries and also with our partners the extensive safety health and safety protocol, which you see on the left. And still, customers give us a rating for the average rating for customers for the holidays has been 8.5 out 10. So that is very high. But a couple of remarks and quotes from customers. The first one is saying relaxing holidays are good holidays. I mean, yes, it is a little bit more empty than it has been before, but customer value it. And also what customers value a lot is that we take care of them, yes, so they feel safe. They are attentive to their help, and they feel that actually we are taking care of it adequately. So adequately means still they have enough freedom, still they have actually a nice and relaxing holiday. Now when I turn to the next page of my operational update, you see on the Page 10, we had 1,700,000 new bookings since the travel bans were lifted, so since June. And you see the seasons on the top left. New bookings for summer, 1.5. Total net bookings, so including amendments and older bookings, so the bookings which have been in the system, euros 2,400,000.0. So that is 30% off capacity. You saw our load factor 89%. So I think we are in a good shape. The bookings come in much more short term, so the new bookings will increase because we have good visibility now for August, but September are still a lot of bookings coming in. Winter, you see that we will increase our capacity to 60%, but it is 60% of winter capacity, which is, of course, usually half of the summer. And therefore, we stay on a very constant level, if you like. And here, you see the bookings need to catch up a little bit. That is not a problem. Quite on the contrary, that is a result of also the shorter booking cycles, which we see in summer as well. But then I think the very promising thing is then summer 'twenty one. Summer 'twenty one, total net bookings are €1,500,000 Last year, it has been €630,000 So we are up 145%. But even new bookings since June is 430,000. Last year has been 380,000. So you see that even on 100% capacity level, we would be doing well. What we also do is we are careful. So particularly through also the Boeing arrangements we have been doing, we will plan our aircraft capacity and also commitment capacity in hotels to 80% because this actually puts us on the safe side. We believe if the market will go on and it will be the booking like we see right now, yes, it will be easier to extend capacity than if, for whatever reason, in January, the bookings are not coming in as we think and so on. And this advantage actually will be fading away, which we have right now into the in the systems. Then it's better to be on the 80% in order to be profitable next year, guaranteed profitable next year. So this year, liquidity, we have secured liquidity lines. Bookings for summer are pretty good. Load factors for summers are very good. Therefore, cash break operational cash breakeven in Q4. Summer 'twenty one is a stunning number, and it is, I would say, almost 15% of capacity sold. So it's not one-five. So it's not very low price on the cost. I mean, I think that's that, I think, is very reassuring messages. That said, I would like to hand over to Birgit in Antwerp to lead you through the financial section of our presentation. Thank you, Fritz, and also a warm welcome from my side. So I'm pleased to talk about the financial achievements during the standstill and the restart as well as our current financial priorities. And let me start by saying that we have successfully delivered the previously announced cash fixed cost reductions of over 70% during the lockdown, and we also demonstrated our strict and rigorous liquidity management. And then a second, the restart of operations has led to an immediate inflow of working capital and is positive to our operational cash flows. And then the Boeing compensation has been finalized and the Apaxloid transaction proceeds are secured. And then we are, of course, like Fritz already alluded to, equally pleased to say that we agreed the additional liquidity headroom to manage the unprecedented crisis. And then going forward, our full management attention will be on rebuilding a solid and robust financial profile. And also, it will all be about improving our operating effectiveness with the transformation program. So let me now further detail these achievements. And you see that on the no, sorry, the previous slide. So you see that on the first slide detailing the German federal government facility that we secured. So we were pleased to announce the agreement, as Fritz already said, for an additional headroom of €1,200,000,000 And as Fritz also said, so with this new stabilization package, too, we will have access to additional liquidity, which further strengthens our position in this volatile market environment, and it also better positions us in case there is a further period of disruption in our industry. The liquidity headroom is agreed. It's a combination of debt and also an equity linked instance, as you could see from our communication yesterday. And the package consists, therefore, of a further KfW loan increasing to its existing revolving credit facility by €1,050,000,000 And the drawing of the additional KfW tranche is subject to an issuance of a convertible bond with a volume of €150,000,000 subscribed by the German WSF by the September 30 at the latest. And furthermore, it is subject to an agreement with the bondholders of the €300,000,000 senior notes due October 21 regarding a covenant waiver for a potential future limitation of indebtedness. And on the next slide, you will see the details of TUI's government stabilization financing. And first, let me remind you that back in April, TUI was the first company to successfully receive the approval for a 1,800,000,000 Kw bridge loan facility from the German state, and it was just ten days post application. And the €1,800,000,000 and the €1,050,000,000 are an extension to the existing €1,750,000,000 revolving credit facility. And both covenants, net leverage ratio and interest cover relating to the existing and increased RCF will be suspended for the next eighteen months. So covenant testing will resume in September 2021. The new stabilization measures comprise also a new element, which is a convertible bond for an amount of 100,000,000 that will be subscribed by WSS subject to the conclusion of a subscription agreement. And the bonds will have an initial term of six years and bears interest at a rate of 9.5% per annum. And the remainder of the terms are described on this page. So what I would like to point out is that the access to this facility will provide us with sufficient liquidity headroom in case we see a prolonged period of disruption or a second lockdown. And as you can well imagine, during the period of crisis, the finance team has run through various COVID-nineteen scenario analysis, and I would like to share our most recent assumptions with you. So the first scenario is our restart scenario. The ramp up of operations is expected to work as communicated, and we see a continued positive inflow of working capital. In this scenario, we expect that the so far secured financing instruments give us sufficient headroom for the winter season to come and beyond, and it is unlikely that we need to utilize a second stabilization package. And then a second scenario assumes an environment where the operational ramp up is slower than expected and where negative news flows about, for instance, increasing infection rates, etcetera, might have an impact on consumer confidence. And here, we expect that we might need to utilize the second stabilization package to cover short term liquidity gaps. And then we calculated the third scenario, and this assumes major disruptions or a second lockdown leading again to the suspension of large parts of our travel program as well as an obligation to refund our customers. This is a scenario where we expect to utilize the stabilization package. So in summary, the second stabilization package secures our liquidity needs even in a scenario of a second lockdown. So let's move to the next slide then. So this is on Hapag Lloyd. And so the successful closing of the sale of Hapag Lloyd Cruises to our two week cruise joint venture will enhance our liquidity position by around €700,000,000 And we received the first amount of approximately €300,000,000 of disposal proceeds already in the third quarter, and we received the second tranche of around €320,000,000 post the transfer of the ships in mid July. Around €70,000,000 are to be received over the next two years. And in Q4, you will also see the deconsolidation of around €400,000,000 of net debt and debt like items. Additionally, we will also report a positive P and L effect in Q4 as we anticipate the disposal gain of €400,000,000 based on the effective valuation terms of the transaction. So this transaction is part of our asset right strategy and combines Royal Caribbean's expertise with TUI's strong distribution power. So then let me move on to the Boeing agreement. So as promised, we managed to agree a comprehensive compensation agreement with Boeing, which strengthens our liquidity and equally important, also allows flexible fleet planning in time of the pandemic. And as you know, the specific details of the agreements with Boeing are confidential, so I cannot really share them. However, they consist of three key elements: a staggered cash compensation to be received over the next two years, which covers a significant proportion of the grounding costs. A deferral of 61 aircraft by an average of twenty five months, and this enables our fleet capacity to be flexed over the next two years, which is, of course, useful in the current situation and then credits against future orders. So the deferral agreement will also reduce our financing requirements of the next two years whilst we rebuild our financial profile. And we are quite proud of this successful deal in a difficult market environment. So this brings me to the liquidity position. On the next slide. Yes, thank you. As already mentioned during my introductory remarks, I'm very pleased to say that liquidity developed in line with expectations. And during the half year results, we talked about a reduction in liquidity from the March 27 to the May 10 by around €1,000,000,000 And the main buckets were the repayment of commercial paper and bilaterals, customer refunds and operational cash out. And since then, we have managed our cash out for customer refunds successfully. We executed on our cash fixed cost reduction targets, the ones that we discussed with you in the previous call, and we delivered on the promised cash ins like haplogleid and Boeing, which because there were a lot of questions around that as well during the call last time. And the positive contribution as per our restart announcement is well on track. So we are also pleased to communicate that if the current scenario continues, we expect to be broadly operationally cash breakeven during Q4, but I will come to that on my next slide. So let me summarize first. On the August 12, we can report €1,200,000,000 of cash and available facilities and pro form a, adding the new government backed funds to its cash and available facilities would amount to €2,400,000,000 This liquidity position makes us well placed to cover our upcoming winter needs and also beyond, even in case of a second lockdown. So with that, let me go to the next slide. And at our H1 results, we discussed how the exceptional shutdown requires significant group wide cost reduction. Having reduced costs to an absolute crisis minimum, we expect a cash fixed cost outflow of between $250,000,000 to €300,000,000 per month. Additionally, we expect the payment obligations below EBIT such interest, pensions and debt repayments for around €50,000,000 per month. And we also said we anticipated customer refunds of between $250,000,000 to €300,000,000 so a total of €550,000,000 to €650,000,000 per month. And under a restart scenario based on our current plans, we expect Q4 full year 2020 to be broadly cash breakeven on an operational level. So this is a cash flow cash view, including working capital. And for 2021, we expect a muted cash out of low single digit EUR100 million compared to normal years based on a less pronounced liquidity curve. Looking ahead, and I will explain that on the next slide. So looking ahead, we expect full year 2021 to be a transitional year. And as consumer sentiment for travel recovers, we expect a more normalized working capital cycle in full year 2022 fiscal year 2022. To summarize, we reacted quickly to reduce costs and to secure liquidity. And I can assure you, our focus on strict liquidity management will be continued. So that leads me to the slide where you see the liquidity profile. And as last time, I would like to guide you through our assumptions and how the restart is expected to impact the seasonal swing. And you can see this from this illustrative graph again, the partial restart and that is the light blue line has led to an immediate inflow of working capital and is contributing positively to our cash curve compared to a standstill or a lockdown, and that is the dotted light gray line that you can see there. And the main reasons are the reduced customer refund obligations, cash inflows as our customers are committing for summer twenty twenty and future seasons and then a lower outflow of Autelier payments due to smaller summer business and also a consumption of certain prepayments that we already made. And then our liquidity enhancing measures, and these were discussed on my previous slides, and then also obviously what I mean with that is a strong focus on cash and costs. And as I already mentioned, we expect to return to a more normalized working capital cycle in fiscal year twenty twenty two when the consumer sentiment for travel is expected to recover. So that brings me to the next slide. Yes, thank you. So now that we secured the necessary liquidity headroom with the additional stabilization package to cover risks even in a case of a second lockdown, our next financial priority is to rebuild a solid financial profile. And it does not sound so long ago when we presented our full year 2019 results, but also there, we said that the overarching target of the capital allocation framework is to maintain a solid balance sheet with a gross leverage ratio in the range of 2.25 times to three times. And this COVID-nineteen pandemic resulted in the withdrawal of our guidance and it remains withdrawn due to the continued level of uncertainty. But this priority remains the same and we need to rebuild a solid balance sheet profile post the COVID-nineteen pandemic. And for this reason, TUI Group will now evaluate options to achieve the optimal balance sheet structure to support the business over the long term. And with that, I think it is a right moment to hand to Fritz because the global realignment program that is underway is very integral part to that, and we can also show that we will work on operational effectiveness. Thank you, Williard. Very clear. So when you page when you look to Page 21, you see the components of our realignment program. It's not only about cost. It's also about capital intensity, and it's also about digitalization. And particularly, when you think about capital intensity and digitalization, this has been part of the strategy which we have communicated to you already before the crisis. We wanted to do less investment on asset rights strategy, as we called it. Part of it was the Hapag Lloyd's integration into TUI Cruises, where we generated significant proceeds, very good valuation, good deconsolidation of debt. Of course, we halved EBIT, but at the same time, synergies, we said we would take care of it, that in two or three years, we would be at EBIT level of 100% again. So that was actually before. And also, the digitalization was an integral part, become a digital platform business, including the full digitalization of processes and additional trust mentality in our operational business. I'll come to that in a minute. What is new is actually the reduction of cost. And we have communicated 30% less overhead cost That was the target impacting potentially 8,000 holes globally. How did we want to do it? How did we communicate to do it? Consolidation of IT structures, one process across all markets, merchant task and organization across the group. I will communicate in a minute what that actually will cost. I will also communicate major five initiatives, which actually are the cornerstones of that program. And these five initiatives, I will talk about, already generate close to €300,000,000 yearly savings. So everything else which we are doing on top of it will be bringing us to the way above €300,000,000 And we will, like in the synergy reporting, some of you may remember of the merger of two and three travel, communicate the savings coming forward. Let me talk about capital intensity. It's not that we sell hotels or it's not that we sell cruise ships, but we will work on our capital structure, And we will work less, introduce or invest less. And that's something which is also clear. There will be overcapacities for the next years. So to level demand with supply, it is anyway a good thing to invest less. And part of it was also, of course, the rightsizing of airlines. And we talked about the 20% less, and you saw it in the summer 'twenty one program, 80% of previously planned capacity. So the agreement with Boeing enables to do that, particularly in Germany, will reduce our airline capacity to what we call the summer the winter capacity. Also, we talked about the divestment of nonprofitable activities, maybe the most prominent being France. Then drive digitalization. Digital platform businesses, thinking digital first, particularly, you will see that in the extra significant reduction in workforce because all the customer journey processes centered around the digital processes, particularly the app where we increased investments, where we increased investment in IT while decreasing investment in overall investment in IT. And even within the investments, decreasing legacy because we now have less business here. It's easier to do that. And all more or less, all investment in IT goes into our new platform. Important here is that we are striving to save cost and enhance quality. So just saving costs are not the right thing to do. We are a premium brand, so we increase quality, and that's only possible because we think digital first. So overall, cost reduction target to be over 300,000,000 first benefits in 'twenty. And you can see the ramp up of the program on the next page. You see also associated SDIs. The full benefit will be achieved on a running rate basis financial year 'twenty three, but significant parts already in 'twenty one and 'twenty two, right? So when you look at now what is this, yes? So what are the major cornerstones? You see five main projects, which I want to talk very briefly about. First, to eFly in Germany. We have overcapacities in Germany in the aviation market. We communicated to reduce around 50% of the fleet. That actually also reduces headcount by half. Transformation plan are presented in negotiation. So the consultation have started. We have the backing through our reduced order book. So that is something which is on its way and is in execution. TUI France restructuring rollout. We have a mandatory auto appointed. This is actually agreed even with the government. So that is particularly also a reduction of overhead but also reduction of own shops, also evaluation of partnerships, at least 500 to 600 votes reduced. So this is actually in rollout and progressing well. DX, the restructuring program, we used to have 10,000 people. Now we are down to six as well as another 1,000 roles being addressed. The it's all, as I said, digital first. We have increased our IT capabilities on the particularly the app in app development, customer care in app, cross selling in app, CRM in app. That is something which is more proactive. And also, we see that creates better customer satisfaction. And also, reuse of the app is very high as well. So the technical maturity is there. Customers also, the break through the lockdown, are more used to actually use digital services, and we will take the advantage. To U. K, the closing of 166 high street stores is communicated. That actually will then generate the associated savings and is a big issue. Of course, again, here, people are more used to online shopping because of the lockdown, and we are taking the advantage. And then on head office, we will actually integrate all functional areas under our leadership. So that is actually reducing duplication, streamlined service delivery, quality improvements. We can more automate because of the bigger scale. Restructuring plan is ready. It is already communicated to social partners, and that's actually underway and committable. And only these four these five projects actually have a target, a saving of just close to €300,000,000 We commit to above 300,000,000 The 30% level would be $350,000,000 to 400,000,000 But to illustrate, it's not only a dream, but it is actually very tangible projects which are in execution, we put this slide up. Now maybe then come to the quarter. I will just very briefly open hand over to Wirgitz then. Maybe just 25 Page 25, I just want very briefly, from my perspective, say a short word before handing over to Birgit on the bottom left box. When you look at the bottom left box, minus 1,100,000,000.0 based on no turnover, yes, that contains €400,000,000 and Birgit will talk about it, mainly through impairments because of the higher WACC we have right now. That's clear. I mean the situation has changed. The WACC changes. Therefore, actually, the valuation changes. So operationally, we talk about the €700,000,000 And that dovetails quite nicely, I think, to the overhead cost reductions of more than 70%, which we communicated last time to you. So I mean, as a sanity check, it's very clear. You see on the top left box, the revenue was minus 98%, of course, until June, just the pilot projects actually were operating and a little bit of overland traffic. But other than that, our business was in a total lockdown. And I think it dovetails quite nicely to the communication we had done before. And maybe, Birgit, do you want to take over now for actually the section here? Yes, that's fine. Thank you, Fritz. So maybe let's move immediately to the yes, to the next slide with the bridge. And here, as you can see, we saw a very successful first five month period with a €100,000,000 improvement versus the same period last year. And here, on this bridge, we singled out the impact of the COVID-nineteen pandemic to our year to date results for an amount of €1,200,000,000 And here, I would like to highlight again our achievements on the fixed cost reduction, and we managed to reduce cost of sales in the third quarter by 78%. And this demonstrates how quickly and efficiently we can manage down our operational gearing in an absolute crisis situation. So I will then just quickly go over the impairments because thank you, Fritz, you already talked about them. And I can tell you, so these impairments, the €410,000,000 you see there in detail, we needed to impair €200,000,000 in hotels and resorts, 133,000,000 in our cruise segment and finally, 88,000,000 for cost share. And in addition, we had to absorb an impact from the COVID-nineteen related loss for over hedged open contracts as a result of our business standstill and our reduced capacity assumptions. And a topic that you probably remember also from last time we spoke. And overall, the net hedging effectiveness for the nine month period amounted to the €189,000,000 So then let me quickly move over to the income statement. And as last time, I will focus on the year on year comparison with pro form a IAS 17 figures for the nine months of the fiscal year 2020, but I will keep my comments really brief as all figures are impacted by COVID-nineteen, which makes a more detailed analysis somewhat meaningless, you could say. So turnover, yes, that's a feedstock already a bit about that. So let me immediately move to the net adjustments of €220,000,000 and it's driven mainly by restructuring costs relating to the global realignment program, which we announced and the €9,000,000 adjustments are composed of the following. So €217,000,000 of restructuring costs and then COVID-nineteen related goodwill impairments of €53,000,000 and then the usual purchase price allocation of €40,000,000 and then also a €90,000,000 disposal gain from the sale of German the German Specialist business. And net interest results increased by €31,000,000 and this is predominantly reflecting the drawdown of our RCF facilities to support the liquidity during the business standstill. And then moving to the cash flow statement. And in this unprecedented situation, so managing our cash flow and liquidity is the number one key priority. And you will see below our cash flow how quickly we actively address the cash items items in our remit. And here, you will see the working capital outflow that is the biggest item here, and it reflects the customer refund obligations and the reduction of new bookings inflow during the COVID-nineteen business standstill for the majority of Q3. And then I think with that, the rest is more self explanatory. The net investments maybe here still to make a small point that we reduced this significantly immediately. Actually, we put all our projects on pause to enhance liquidity. So with that, let's move over to the slide on net debt. Thank you. And at this time, I will focus my comments on the net debt bridge from half one to Q3 on the right hand side of the chart. And net debt before lease liabilities increased by €1,200,000,000 to €3,800,000,000 This is in line with our H1 communication of an expected $550,000,000 to €650,000,000 cash outflow per month for the cash fixed costs and the customer refunds. And the outflow was mitigated by the received cash proceeds from our disposals. And the position was also partly reduced by the hapakloyalty classification as a disposal. And including these liabilities for the first time adoption of IFRS 16, the nine month closing net debt stood at €5,900,000,000 So let me summarize this financial section. And all in all, the Q3 financials are, as you see and know, heavily impacted by the COVID-nineteen pandemic. But when the crisis started, we were able to analyze the situation quickly. This is also how we got to the first agreement with the German state only ten days later because we proactively analyzed. We also secured liquidity in now two tranches, and we executed rigorously on our cash reduction targets. And we are also proud to confirm that the restart delivers on what we promised, and it contributes positively towards our cash costs so that we expect to be cash breakeven on an operational level in Q4. And as already mentioned, our next priority will be to rebuild the optimal balance sheet structure to support our business over the long term. And last but not least, as a reminder, our guidance is withdrawn and they are and the dividend payments are waived. So let me with that, let me hand back to Fritz. Thank you, Birgit. And just for me as a recap and summary and focusing on Page 33, just the white strap line on the dark blue box. I mean after a full breakdown and three months of no business at all, the integrated business model allowed us to have a quick restart and very efficient restart. So 89% in the first month, 89% of a load factor when you start from zero, more than zero five million customers, I think, speaks for itself. Also, we take the advantage of the COVID-nineteen situation to accelerate our already initiated digitalization strategy. So ruthlessly, we limited all investment. There's no investments going out, but digital was increased as well as a focus away from legacy structure. More than 90% of our investments are now going into the future digital platform, and we talked about the effect. And when you look at the summary of the next slide, I mean this puts it very well. I think the restart more or less was about liquidity management, which is now finalized in terms of getting the access to an additional credit line, which we might or might not have to use. But it is important to put certainty and reassurance into the business just in case plan for the worst, hope for the best. Now we work on the balance sheet. That is important as well. And when I see transition year 'twenty one, that our goal will be the return to profitability and actually finalize the digitalization, so the transformation agenda. And in year and by the way, I think when I look at booking of up 145%, there is a very, very good chance that we will be fine. And in year 'twenty two, we believe a vaccine provided the vaccine is there, we will have back to normal, a more consolidated market. The demand will be back. And we will be 300,000,000 hopefully, than €300,000,000 more or less cost or so more profitable. That means leaner, less capital intensive and more digital business. So I think we will be we will have, in hindsight, seen as using the crisis as a chance. That's it from my side as well. And now I would open the floor for questions. I will concierge the questions between myself, Wilgid and also the team at Alofa, and please Thank you. And the first question comes from Jamie Rollo from Morgan Stanley. I've got three questions about liquidity and cash, please. The first one, the June cash position is £2,000,000,000 I assume that's the same as the liquidity position as well. Yesterday, that was £1,200,000,000 So it looks like £800,000,000 of cash burn in about six weeks, your but Q4 guidance obviously for a lot less than that per month. So what am I sort of missing there? And I'm assuming the remaining hapaglide proceeds are not in the GBP €1,200,000,000 Secondly, if I could push you a bit on the cautious scenario. Slide 19 shows the liquidity dotted line sort of dropping and then stopping at the end of Q4. So could you talk about, for the first half, if we do see another lockdown, is it fair to say the maximum monthly EBITDA loss is now maximum $230,000,002 40,000,000 And also, how much of the £4,000,000,000 customer deposits are for that winter season? And if you could finally, on that point, talk about the monthly interest costs now or even the annual interest costs post the additional KfW loan. And the final sort of question, I guess, summing it all up, Fritz, you have interviewed talking about a rights issue. Could you sort of try and size that for us? And should we assume that should come by the September for the going concern account and asset license purposes, please? Thank you. Yes. Okay. So maybe, Birgit, do you want to start? Yes. I will start. So I because I'm I think I have I noted all your questions, but I mean it's a lot to follow, and I have no now assistance to do to multitask on the questions. So I may have to ask you to repeat. But the first question was about how do you get from the May results to €2,100,000,000 to the €1,200,000,000 that we showed on the liquidity development. Is that correct, Jamie? Actually, it was the June balance sheet cash figure of €2,000,000,000 Yes. But I'm assuming Let that me take it from the 2,100,000,000.0 to the 1.2 and that will give you an indication. So if you look at the starting point, the €2,100,000,000 then you add actually back the APAC Lloyd's proceeds and also Boeing, which gets you to a 2,800,000,000.0 And then from that, you take the run rate of the refunds for three months and also some customer deposits. So then you get to around EUR 2,000,000,000. And then you actually need to still deduct the standstill cash out for three months and then you get to the €1,200,000,000 position. That is how this actually reconciled. And then you were asking a question about the liquidity profile, I believe. And here, what happens is you will see what you see is a less pronounced seasonal swing versus what we normally would have, and we show that during the previous results presentation. And now you see that light blue line, which is more or less it's going down actually slightly, but that is because we have the we have, of course, the cash ins in the And so we have the fourth quarter is broadly cash neutral on an operational basis. And also, you see what we said earlier, that it's a low single digit 100,000,000 cash out because you also have some other effects. And then what we also can do is we can reuse some of the customer prepayments that were meant for summer twenty twenty. We can reuse them for the summer twenty twenty one. So we have less of them. And then we also have, of course, less supplier payments because we had a much smaller summer. So that's why you see the liquidity curve develop as it does. And for the 2021, normally, you would see a really major dip, but of course, there are less supplier payments as well. And so that is what you see in the case of situation with the information that we know today of the pandemic. Of course, nobody has a crystal ball. And should that change, then with that, the liquidity curve changed, but that's why we also have secured now the second tranche of liquidity so that we have enough liquidity to cover all of these scenarios, as I said earlier during the presentation. But then there were other questions I think you asked on the right on a potential rights issue. So with that, let me tell you, we are now evaluating all the potential options for an optimal balance sheet structure. And this is also it's also the transformation program that we just launched because we want to be much more effective going forward. And with that over €300,000,000 cost saving run rate commitment, we will be able I mean that will substantially change our cost base and that is a plus going forward. And also on the assets, we will be we will make a change, and we already announced that last time to be more asset light. And you saw that also with the Hapag Lloyd's transaction. So that also helps. And then, of course, we will further look at other options. Need to evaluate the full spectrum. It's just yes, is that answering your question? I think that was a question still on interest costs, right? There was a second Yes, on the interest costs. Okay. Yes. So here and I cannot really go into detail on the interest costs also for the second tranche. That is something we are not on the for it. And it depends on whether we draw upon the second tranche RCF, of course. But indeed, our interest cost will go up. That is kind of normal if you do the math, but it all depends on also how quickly we can repay the debt and whether we need to draw upon the second tranche or not. So I think you've seen it also from the from now our third quarter results. You also already saw the increase in the interest component. Sorry, you didn't quite answer my questions. Can I just maybe rephrase them then? The first question was actually about the Q4 cash burn because you've given us the June cash June June, not May, June, euros 2,000,000,000. And you've given us the August liquidity, it's an €800,000,000 drop in the fourth quarter in six weeks, which is more than the whole Q4 guidance for cash burn. So that was that specific question. And the other question was looking forward on the first half, what is the maximum EBITDA loss now? Now you've taken the fixed cost down. I think it's €240,000,000 but just confirm that. And how much of the €4,000,000,000 customer deposits are for that six month period? In other words, what could the worst case outflow be on that, please? Yes. Maybe my line is a bit bad. On the last, I didn't get. But so on the fourth quarter, what we did see, and I will just repeat that, is that on an operational basis, we are cash neutral. But of course, are still other elements, which is also which are not operational and some net items. And there, we can assume and I will repeat it again, like the low single €100,000,000 And that is what I can say about that. So I'm not sure you'll see that when we report back in December that we will again deliver upon what we said. If the situation, of course, stays as is currently with the information that we have on the pandemic, if something dramatically changed, then that may change. But based on what we know today, it is what I what we guided for. So why is there an €800,000,000 cash outflow in six weeks? So let me remind you. So the July cash out, in particular, refunds. So this is phasing also, so including June and supplier payments. And it relates to and we also have supplier payments, which relates to the restart of the business. So what I said when I talk about the Q4, then that is more in general, if you would divide it by three months. But of course, you have phasing from one week into the other. We're talking about cash and not about, for instance, EBIT. So that's just phasing of some items. And especially with refunds, you can imagine that, that is not so clear cut by week. But I mean, Jamie, to be absolutely clear, yes, when we talk about operationally breakeven, we can we don't talk about the historic burden of a refund of customers, which we had to bring Azure in July, yes, as well as supplier payments, yes? And the absolute majority of actually the liquidity development in July was both of these, yes, overdue suppliers and refunds. Of course, now we are, as you were, this will be not an issue. Quite to the contrary, now we actually get more cash ins, yes, than actually we refund through new bookings, yes? When we talk about operational breakeven, we that's what it says is that the operations full operations actually are covered by the operational business which we have in that period. And that's also the reason why in Q1, as you see on the slide, the situation is slightly deteriorating again because then you get a slightly bigger summer business with a phased cash out to suppliers, namely, hoteliers, yes? And that actually reduces the liquidity position again, yes? So in July particularly July, but also August, we still had a significant August, significant refunds for customers and suppliers. Got it. And can I just rephrase my last question? The question was about the timing and the size of a potential rights issue. Should we expect to buy a ticket? We can I ask for your patience here a little bit? Because I mean the issue is, of course, highly in a highly volatile market, what we do is we will be prepared to take the chance. I mean the message we want to say is we know that our balance sheet needs to be restructured, yes? And we will take the chance to do that. But of course, when and exactly how much will highly depend, of course, on the volatility of the market as well. The rights issue is, of course, one of the components. We have an approval of last AGM, but of course, that needs to be stacking up. So please allow us not to do comments on that issue now. The next question comes from Adrian Peel from Commerz bank. Just three questions, I think. Well, first of all, to be clear, what you've been saying on rightsizing of airline. I mean we talked about it probably previously, but I was just wondering, given your new announcements on cost, if you are contemplating on lowering the airline capacity any further. And clearly linked to that, I mean, obviously, I know you're not commenting on any rumors, but potentially, you might look a little bit more closer on whatever kind of joint venture structure, and probably there's a German partner out there for which it makes sense. I just wondered what are your contemplations potentially around that The and is there something in the second one is actually on the whole topic of hotelier prepayments and touristic prepayments. Can I assume that actually also from a legal litigation perspective, you have sorted everything out so far? Or are there any remaining risks from that to be factored in? Is the second one. And actually, the third one is on you did some asset write downs already with the Q3 reporting. What is your view on that? I mean, is there anything to come in Q4 potentially? And given that your equity ratio has been declining quite substantially, obviously, as a natural consequence of what happened, Can you rule out that this will be negative by the end of Q4? Okay. I'll leave the third one for Bergen, but let me ask you answer the first two. The first one is the rightsizing of Airline, yes? When you look at our short haul fleet, yes, we have been able to reduce our order book or our reduce or delay our order book significantly. And that is around thirty, thirty five, 34 next two years, which of MAXs, we don't take, yes? Now in Germany, the biggest pressure we have, as you mentioned, is actually Germany. We have now 39 short haul or mid haul flights, and we will reduce half because that is 20. And when you also stack up that number with our overall short haul mid haul fleet of 120 something, we will go down to around 100, yes? This also includes a little bit of restructuring, which we already have initiated in The Nordics and a little bit of Lightning as well as in The U. K, but the smaller pieces, the big thing is now Germany. Now you talked about future plans, and you talked about consolidation in the market. What we are doing is aside of reducing capacity, what we say, to the winter capacity because we believe in the next years, we will it will be fine. We need strategic access because it's an infrastructure for us, yes? So we need to be guaranteeing that something flies to Caballo if we build a hotel in Caballo. But more than the winter program, we might not want to fly our own, and therefore, we reduce it. Now what we also do in the same, we have actually separated all airlines into a separate entity, what we call a telco itself, yes? Also, we have everything on the same platform right now on, for example, Navita the same Navita platform. And that will allow us to operate the airline as a profit center and not as a cost center, yes? And when you operate as a profit center and you have an integrated full IT stack and operations, right, integrated, right, then you are partner ready. And what that means more or less before, it would have been difficult, yes, to think at all about partnerships, yes? But now we are partner ready because we can connect very easily, yes? And that is something we will actually look at. More than that, it's difficult to say because we will be on the right size, and we will be on process operations and IT and also P and L structures in a way open to partner, and that then opens a whole array of options, yes? We can either just interconnect with others, code share with others. We can actually have interlinkage. We can maybe work even with aircraft, which we don't invest so that we have investment vehicles to run the aircraft companies and so on and so on. So we but that before was not possible, but now opens the options. Any specific, we would actually talk about if when time matures. On the assets itself, I think the biggest asset disposal we have been doing was Harpak Lloyd, and that was not done that was even decided before the crisis and then was a very good strategic reason. And one of the options, of course, longer term on our watch list is definitely Magalla. Magalla will need refleeting at a certain point in time, maybe not now, definitely not now. But when we do refleeting, we will not do it on our balance sheet. That's also very clear. The queue of interested parties to work with us was long before the crisis. It's a little bit shorter now, but that's definitely something which is on the list, to give you another example. But we will not rush into any kind of higher sale. And again, here, the the liquidity line which we have been securing from the state also prevents that to happen, right? Do you want to say something or the Hannover team or whoever on the asset class? Yes. Was about the equity ratio. But the equity ratio in the group is not triggering a consequence. The relevant here is that it's about 2E AG as a legal entity. But in the Q4, impairments were a COVID-nineteen triggering event, and this had to do with reduced free cash flows going forward, with then an increased WACC due to our weighted average cost of capital risk on premiums. So it's not an equity ratio really that will trigger the consequence. And the equity at TUI AG at the end of this quarter was above €5,000,000,000 Okay. Let's go next. The next question comes from Richard Klaas from Bernstein. Three questions, if I may. The first one is just on the nature of your current deposits. I know you've said that you're kind of done with the refunds. But if there's any can you give us some detail on how much of those deposits are holidays that were booked pre COVID and maybe to which seasons the current deposit levels relate to? Second question, on the convertible, is the €150,000,000 that's already been drawn, is it? You have to draw that today? And just on being able to avoid it being converted, it sounds like you can avoid it if you've repaid the other facility. Do you have to repay the first liquidity facility before you pay any of the second one? So will you need to repay the entire sort of first tranche before you can avoid the convertible being able to be utilized? And then the third one, hopefully, something a little bit more positive. You haven't mentioned in your release the booking deal with Amusement. Anything you can comment on that, the potential scope that you might have from that Amusement deal? And what else that might lead on to with Booking? Okay. The prepayment is pretty easy. More or less, everything you see right now, which is returned, is before the is for travel, which actually has been booked before the crisis. So particularly now, it's very encouraging. We had this travel morning or quarantining from Spain to U. K, more or less nothing actually returned there. Everything has been rebooked, for example, to Greece, yes? So and now, of course, particularly when you look to the future, a lot it's more now it's more on the operational issue. It's not so much returning the money but redeeming vouchers, right? And you'll see that, particularly in December 21, the difference between the net bookings in June and actually the bookings status of €1,000,000,000 and that is actually voucher. By the way, including the vouchers, the prices are still up. So I think that's a good message. The convertiveness only related to the second tranche of RCF, yes? I mean first tranche of RCF is not affected at all. And the booking is of course, when you look at booking itself, we are the sole provider now. But of course, the booking business itself is very low. But the numbers are are the first numbers are good. But of course, it is much lower than expected because the volume itself and booking as well is not high. Then on the refunds. So per month, as we've said earlier, we have a refund rate of $250,000,000 to €300,000,000 And then you know that the customer deposits at the end of the third quarter per the balance sheet were around €3,000,000,000 like 2,900,000,000.0 let's say. And then the change versus March 2020 when we were at 3.4 It is related to refunds for summer twenty twenty, but it's also including new bookings because some people rebook for later periods, winter or summer 'twenty one, and also sales of restart. So it's a bit a mix, let's say. Yes. But the main part of the refunds, of course, relates to, as I said, to pre COVID bookings. Okay. That's it. Okay. And the next question comes from James Stanley from Citi. Please go ahead. Just you talked about or question on Newswire is saying as well as a potential capital raise, you might consider selling other assets. At a high level, kind of what bits of the business do you think you could sell without undermining the integrated nature of the business model? Second, related to that is how does the kind of lower cash resources impact your investment plans for and the growth plans for the DX business and the GDN OTA? And then the third question is, can you talk a bit about your experiences of restarting the cruise business? What have you learned about maximum levels of occupancy that you can manage on board? What are your plans for restarting port calls? And how are you, therefore, thinking about the sort of capacity plan for your cruise business in 2021? Yes. Okay. So the potential well, to be very clear, when if we sell, and that was the communication of even before the crisis, if we sell things on the asset front or if we divest or make actually, then we don't do that without or then we only do it if we keep control on the asset itself, the sales, the marketing, the product, everything. The best example is, of course, Truly Cruises. Truly Cruises is an equity, but at the same time, we control everything which is necessary and possible, yes? And I talked about Magala, for example, maybe other things to come. But we don't sell, and we lose control. And that actually says already something about this will never be a fire sale. We will be careful. And quite to the contrary, if we want to scale on the digital platforms, then it's very clear that long term, we just to invest into assets, yes, will maybe not fit 100%. So we need to be careful what is in our balance sheet and how much invest and where we invest, yes? And that's what we said asset light. It's not that we say we don't like it. Quite to the contrary, we like it, but the financing structure must be right. On the experience on cruises, that has been good. I mean customers like it. The feedback is very good. We expect the first part the limitations right now is actually the opening of parts. We expect the first opening of parts being will be happening in September, and that will be in the Mediterranean. And we will put the ships there. Today, we are satisfied with what we do. But of course, long term, we need operations in Southern Europe definitely, if not even more south, particularly when the winter comes. Bookings for summer are good. Volume is good. Prices are a little bit weaker than this year. So the yields are not where they should be 100%. But on the other hand, I have to say that the bookings, for example, for overall, I mean, for hotels and that business is up on prices. So it's still a little bit early days. There was one more question you had. Well, it was related to the cruise business. What level of occupancy you have been running that on? Yes. We just operate now on 60% level. The 60% level is cash positive. So I mean that we don't lose cash. That's the objective. And do you think you can increase that 60% from here? Or is that the kind of level you're planning? It's a pure decision of us to do that right now. And we could do the demand would be higher. I mean we adjust when we operate the ship, we decided right now to do 60%. Over time, it will go up, I'm pretty sure. But for the time being, we operate 60%. And it depends a little bit on the travel advisers. Now the most important thing is that we start to operate in the Mediterranean and we get port openings. I think that is the next step to face. And the next question comes from Jaffa Mestari from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning, Hi, everyone. Hi. I'd like to ask three, if that's okay. So firstly, on customer prepayments, you did flag that you saw an immediate inflow of working capital since you reopened. But as you mentioned in a couple of your answers on this call, it hasn't been that clear cut in June. So could you maybe give us some sense on how big those booking related inflows were in July and August after your balance sheet date? And second question on the same theme. Today, how much cash down payment has your average booked customer paid in percentage of the price of their holiday? In other words, when those customers who've booked or rebooked will eventually travel in winter 'twenty or in summer 'twenty one, will they have a significant cash top up to pay to you? Or will you pretty much have to provide the holiday on the basis of what you already hold? Yes. Clear. Yes. And lastly, just on the German Economic Stabilization Fund, that's WSS. My understanding from a very bad Google translate is that the fund is only accessible to companies that have not secured any other form of financing. So can you retain part or all of the now €2,900,000,000 loan and find new equity or new bonds or new bank financing on top? Is that the plan? Or would you have to actually refinance the entire 2,900,000,000.0 in any balance sheet solution that you're working on? Yes. I'll leave the last question for Birgit. Yes. Let me take the first. You cannot see the customer prepaid you cannot see the customer payment inflow in June, yes? And the reason for that is because June was only the pilot, yes, and it was not clear in June or in the last quarter when actually everything else would be open. Usually, the structure is as follows: When you get when you the customers start actually booking, then you have a down payment, let's say, of 10%, 20% whatsoever, yes, depends a little bit on the plan, on the country and so on. But the big cash in comes when you actually provide travel because then the remainder is actually taken from the customer, and that is then the 8090%. So the cash in, you cannot see when you look at last quarter. You only can see in July, where actually we bought five and sixty thousand plus people on vacation, right? So that's the reason why June is meaningless, yes? In the and on the second question was about the vouchers, yes? So what actually happens is a couple of things. The first thing is you have vouchers, people redeem vouchers, yes? Of course, they get a discount with it, yes? Now the question is what do they buy? And what we see, at least for summer next year, where we have significant numbers and you see roundabout 1,000,000 amendments already, yes, that is the difference between the $430,000,000 you see in the slide and the 1,500,000.0 yes? This €1,000,000 yes, you they have discounts, but the resulting price, so after discount, is actually up, yes? And the reason for that is our CRM systems are now, of course, trying to upsell customers to more valuable holidays, if you like, yes? So that's number one. The second thing you see is maybe also interesting, particularly now, for example, when we started to open Turkey, but also Greece, that is actually, again, a result of July as well as August. We have been successful of channeling demand into hotels where we had significant prepayments, yes? And that actually says we have the cash ins without any cash out because the cash outs happened in the time before. And there was a question, do we have still settlement, the social needs and so on? Of course, by doing so, yes, it's enormously relieving the pressure to pay out hotels as well because now we're doing the business again and prepayments are redeemed, and that is, of course, something which is helping a lot as well. On the WSF, it's a convertible bonds reliant. It's we can emit the convertible, and then we can actually get access to the KfW line. But maybe to the detailed conditions, maybe Birgit or office. And Matthias also in Hannover, do you want to elaborate on that? Yes. So the KfW is a bridge financing, which we will refinance in due course. But what was important is to really first secure liquidity as you can understand. And that is what we did. And as I also said earlier, we may not even have to access the second tranche based on the scenarios. So and then now, like Fritz also said, now is the time to evaluate also balance sheet options, and there's various things we are looking at. For instance, the asset light, which we already discussed, also the cost, and this has to be a recurring cost saving, which we are working on and then other options. But what is for sure is that we have the intention to drive down leverage going forward, and we believe it's very well possible as Touree I mean, this is caused by the COVID-nineteen pandemic, but TUI is a great business. It's a great brand. Customers want to go on holiday with TUI And just look at the first five months of our results where we really demonstrated that we are in a strong position, and this was also post the collapse of a major competitor. So and also the forward business is looking strong. So it's now all about also executing the alignment program, reducing costs, focus on cash, which we already did pre COVID. As you all well know, we were constantly focusing on cash and also constantly focusing on getting the leverage down. So this is just unfortunate, but we will that this happened, COVID-nineteen. But now after having secured the liquidity, even in a worst case scenario, because that's what the second part is all about, it's more like a risk insurance premium, so to say, for anything worse that could happen. And then obviously, we will do everything to drive down the leverage and look at all balance sheet options that are available to us at the right moment. Super. Thank you. The next question comes from Christian Nedelcu from UBS. Three, if I may. The first one, you talk about an optimal balance sheet. Could you give us a bit of color how you define that? What is a level a sustainable level of debt in your view? Secondly, for FY 'twenty one, could you give us a range of EBITDA expectations, a range of free cash flow expectations for FY 'twenty one? And if you can make a bit reference to working capital CapEx developments in your base case scenario going forward. And thirdly, I guess, advanced payments, and you flagged earlier people are booking close at the departure date. I mean how do you see that profile of bookings? I know, for example, January used to be the strongest month in bookings with 30% of the summer booked in January. Do you believe that could still be the case? Or what do you think is that shape of the booking curve over the next six months, nine months? Okay. I mean Douglas will talk about the balance sheet. I think we have talked about net levels historically, and we think we should achieve that range again. But let's talk about financial year 'twenty one. We say we will be we strive to be profitable. So that means profitable is definitely above zero when it comes to EBIT. But of course, we will see. I mean that's a good question. How much and how fast things will come back? I mean one thing that's very clear, I mean, short haul Mediterranean summer business will be very strong, and you see that in the booking numbers, yes? You see that in the booking numbers, up 145%. But what will happen exactly to long haul, what will happen exactly to the cruise business and so on, it's a little bit more unclear. But EBIT levels will be positive. That actually says we will actually restrict the investments into hotels and cruises to something which I would call maintenance level. Of course, we will change to digitalization. That will be the main investment area, yes? But of course, it's much smaller. And also, the the delay deliveries of aircraft will be a huge benefit to our balance sheet as well. And then you have then you asked about the booking profile. I mean that will be interesting to see, yes? That will be interesting to see. The good thing is for 'twenty one, we have already 1,500,000 bookings in the system where we have actually eaten the full or partly cash. And that is, on the booking status, very advanced of where we have been last year. But one thing is also clear, most likely, yes, next year's bookings might be a little bit more shorter. But by the way, therefore, this we don't assume that this advantage will persist. But it's nice to have it. And also when you look at the prices, I said we are up. Next year's prices are up high single digit, mid high single digit. So because of the good booking profile today for this 13%, 15% booking status, We are now significantly up. That's good. It's a good starting point, but it's difficult to say what will happen in January or February. Maybe on the balance sheet. Birgit, do you want to say what are we striving to do? Yes. Yes, indeed. So as you know, so pre COVID, we have a capital allocation framework. And there, we set the leverage target ratio is between 2.25 to three times. Now as you also know, we were really focusing on that pre COVID. And as I said earlier already, we will continue to focus on that going forward and to really drive it to the lower end of the guidance. But before that, we still have some work to do because of what happened to us with COVID-nineteen. Of course, previously, we were well underway also with the Halperc Lloyd transaction, the Boeing compensation, everything. Did the focus on cash, also the business being where it was. So now we should go back to these levels. And we feel comfortable that we can grow out of this due to the things that I talked about earlier. So as Fritz said, so you have the ramp up of the bookings, you have the operational cost being taken out, the asset light disposals like, for instance, that we did Hapag Lloyds transaction where you actually have a combination with a strong other partner and you actually have synergies on the expertise. And we are the distributor of distributor. And for instance, in two week cruises, you have all the expertise on the ships, etcetera. So that is a perfect combination, as Fritz also alluded to. And then we'll work further on the capital structure in all other means, but you can understand that, that's it for now in terms of what we can comment on that because we have had the question already several times and I seem like a broken record. But and then on the guidance, because you also asked for guidance and it is a bit early to guide, which is also why we withdrew our guidance. And as I said, with the finance team, we built several scenarios. And we have a current scenario, which is where with the information we all know around this call, but there's also other scenarios. So it's too early. We don't have a crystal ball and nobody will be able to say what happens next. The only thing is that what we see now is as soon as the business picks up, TUI is in a good position to immediately pick up travel and provide service to the customers. I think and you know, I'm not so long into in this industry, but it's amazing how quickly, too, we can turn around and actually operationalize everything. So I think that's important also to know. And with that, okay, we cannot really say. We consider 2021 to be a transition year and 2022 for things to get back to normal. Okay. Thank you very much. I have been informed by the central team that this was actually the last question. Is that correct? I mean That's correct. Okay. Thank you very much, everybody, for tuning in. Thank you very much. I think the COVID-nineteen crisis is unprecedented. But I have to say, 1,700,000 bookings since the breakdown in the first month of operations, more than 500,000 customers on vacation Q4 operationally breakeven and next year being up 145%. I mean promising sense. That's what I believe. Thank you very much, and have a great day.