Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the TUI AG conference call regarding Q1 results for the financial year 2023. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Sebastian Ebel and Mathias Kiep.
Good morning to everyone. I'm here with Mathias Kiep and Nicola and the IR team. Today is a very important day for us, our general meeting, and we are very happy to start with you before we have the meeting. Q1. We have seen a good Q1, and with a significant increase in customers, 3.3 million, which is one million above prior year, which is 93% of the full year 2019 levels. Q1 revenue increased even stronger by EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 3.8 billion and the EBITDA is EUR 153 million minus, which is almost half of the losses we had seen in prior year. It's not yet where we had been in 2019, but we are on a good track to full recovery.
Net debt around EUR 5.3 billion, which is broadly in line with prior year. We of course, had after the strong summer season, we had to pay our suppliers. This is the effect there. The second effect was that bookings came in later. As we have seen a very strong January, this brought us a significant cash inflow. There is encouraging booking momentum across both seasons, especially for summer. We had seen a slightly weaker December, a very strong January and a very strong February up to now with significantly being above pre-pandemic levels with higher prices and record bookings in January online in both the UK and Germany. We are very proud that our science-based targets were validated a couple of days ago by SBTi.
We are the first integrated company with the Science Based Targets for 2023, which is for us a very important step, and we are very happy about that and I will give you details later on. If you look at the different segments, we do see that the holiday experience is doing very well. Hotel and resorts even improved their strong Q1 2022 results with good occupancy and a significant increase in the daily rate. The daily rate was able to offset all cost increases. On cruise, for the first time, break-even level and with strong occupancies. Looking forward, we do see a strong momentum in bookings and occupancies are getting very close to historical heights. TUI Musement on the same level as the Q1 2022.
TUI Musement has two main business, one serving the tour operator customers. There the profitability is depending on the amount of customers we have. Second, on the customers they acquire on their own for their activity business. We are very happy that especially this part is growing significantly as this is not only important for the profitability for TUI Musement, but it's also very important to get customers into the TUI ecosystem which have not been TUI customers before. All in all, a very strong performance of holiday experience. On markets and airlines, we have seen a very good development in Central Region, which includes not only Germany, but Switzerland, Austria and Poland gaining significant market share. The first market where we introduced dynamic packaging. We do see the positive momentum there.
Western region, the only area where the losses increased. They increased because of two reasons. One, the situation around Amsterdam was very difficult in the first quarter, forced capacity reduction and therefore competitors bringing their aircraft to Belgium and we were affected by both things. We can say looking forward that Amsterdam is now performing by far better. In Belgium we were suffering till middle of January by not able to connect to the metasearch as we had introduced a new IT system. All these issues are now solved, therefore we are confident there as well. On the Northern region, EUR 50 million less losses. We have seen, for the first time, a stable operation when it came to disruption.
On the other hand, we were suffering from the situation that we were not able to hedge as early as our competitors were doing it, and we were hit quite significantly by the weak pound we had seen. Looking forward, we are now in a by far better position as we are getting more and more hedging lines in place. What are our strategic priorities? Just to recap from my former presentations, we want to grow market share to do things better in the market where we are. We want to bring more products, new products to our existing customers, and we want to gain new customer. Why is that so important?
Today we are strong in the wholesale package with a significant double-digit market share, but we are not strong in the dynamic packaging. You can see in all the markets that dynamic packaging is a very significant part of the touristic sector, and it's the part which is growing, is stronger than the wholesale package. By introducing our dynamic packaging into all the markets finally till the end of the year, we want to participate there. There is no reason why TUI should not be as successful in dynamic packaging as we are in wholesale package. accommodation only, and flight only are also the products we bring to the customers.
Of course, the growth of our TUI Musement product experience transfer activities is fueling also the future growth of TUI, and also will bring us new customers into the TUI ecosystem. By preparing for the growth opportunities, we focus on strong quality. We had the situation that during COVID, it was challenging to keep the high quality standards we had pre-COVID. I'm happy to report that we are in the recent times reporting record customer satisfaction numbers, which is really important for us because we are a quality provider, and that's we are standing for. Secondly, we are seeing sustainability as an opportunity, not as a threat. That is the second functional pillar we are looking at.
Of course, we will only achieve our targets with the winning team, which we have built and which we are growing. What are the latest, what is our latest progress on our strategic initiatives? We have successfully implemented dynamic packaging in Germany. We successfully launched accommodation only in Sweden. The tour platform is rolled out in Belgium, and we are further developing our digital capabilities via the app. As said, we introduced science-based targets for 23, which were validated by SBTi, the organization by WWF and the UN. What does it mean if you buy products in retail or online in Germany?
You get now a by far broader product portfolio, and the benefit of that has been that we are today doing 25% of our bookings are dynamically packaged bookings, and that is the reason why TUI Germany is doing very well, why we gain significant market share. We can increase choice and get better deals for our customers by connecting direct to flight content or to the hotelier. This is something we are now rolling out to all the other major markets in Europe. When we look at accommodation only, we launched the product in Sweden. It's at the moment rolled out to the other Nordic countries till the end of this month, and it will be rolled out in the U.K. till the end of this calendar year, which will offer a broad offer.
We started with 15,000 hotels. At the end of the year, we'll have almost 100,000. We do think that 300,000-400,000 is a good target. We don't target 2 million because we want to make sure that everything we offer is quality approved, which fits very well to the brand. Flexibility, flexible rates, non-refundable rates, so broad range of rates and of course, advanced technology. For the customer, he or she can book as good as or even better than with our competitors. The tourist business, which we started in Belgium, and by the way, also in Spain, is a fairly new market for us. It's a market which has the size of several EUR billion in Europe, and it has never been really explored by TUI.
By implementing a new booking engine which personalize multi-day tours in real time, we can offer a product which is new for the market, so the customer can combine activities with flights, with accommodation in a very personalized, seamless way. The first days of being, having this in the market has been very successful. We are also rolling this out till the end of the year. We are targeting new customer segments where we have not been strong in the past, the energized adventurers and travel listers, the individuals who want to package their holiday in a very individual way. The app. I think this is maybe the biggest game changer we will see. We started with a service app, we are now rolling it out to become a real sales app.
There are markets which were more advanced, like the UK, and there were markets which were less advanced. I want to make very clear, of course, retail is important, especially in Central Europe, and we do our utmost to support retail. The app is very important for us because it helps us to interact with the customers very frequently. Today, the TUI customers buys every two and a half year a package customer. With the broader offering in the app, we are able to communicate on a constant basis with the customer.
He has the opportunity to buy all different leisure products with us in a very easy way. The success we do see is that we were able to increase the 3.3% share of all the bookings to 4.8% in the first quarter compared to last year quarter, which is 50% more, but which has been even more important if we now look at the latest development, the recent developments, this is accelerating, and this is really a very, very good trend asset. This helps us, one, to bring the new products to our customers, it helps us to communicate, and of course, it's also the very strong way to reduce distribution costs. There is still a huge potential which we can target as others have achieved 50% sales through the app.
If we do it this year 10%, then it means that there is more to come, and therefore we put a lot of focus in one app, by the way, it's the same app as the online design will also be the same, to make sure that all markets will benefit from monthly releases and improvements. Sustainability, which is core of our hearts, we do see it as an opportunity. Why do we see it? First, it's the right thing to do. Second, it's what our customer want. Thirdly, in the medium term, it will also be a way to reduce costs. The targets we which were approved by SBTi are reduction in the hotels till '23 by 50%, 30% in the cruise arena, and 25% in aircraft.
These are the targets which were approved. Our ambition, by the way, is significantly stronger. What is important for us is that these are not mathematically targets, but that our customers can see the improvements year by year, and therefore we will report on that on a very regular basis, which hotel is carbon-free, which will be the next month, seeing at our new head office in summer that it will be carbon-free. We'll talk a lot about this because this comes from the core of our hearts, and it's in the DNA of TUI. By the way, it's not only to reduce emission, it's also about cutting water consumptions by half. It's also a zero plastic target and also bringing local products to our customers in the destination.
It's a full scope of activity. This is only a good thing if the outlook, the numbers are right, and therefore it's important to look at the booking situation. In the first quarter, we were above 90% of the levels of 2019, well above, of course, 2022, 2023 with 44%. We see very strong late booking trends, and therefore we assume that the second quarter will be similar. With an ASP, which is roughly 8% above the 2019 level, 20% above last year winter level, which covers the cost increases, if I would assume normal hedging activities. For summer, a very good momentum the recent weeks. It started something in between 2019 and 2022.
What we do now see is a strong acceleration, which has lead us to minus 10% compared to 2019. If we look at the last four weeks, it increased by 30 points compared to the average we had seen before. There is a strong momentum, which gives us a lot of confidence for the summer. If I look even further, although the volumes are small, we do see even better numbers. On the ASP, when we report about 2%, it looks low. If we compare like for like, we are at 6%. The difference comes from the fact that we still had customer with discount vouchers from the pandemic time.
This now comes to an end, that is the reason why the last 4 weeks prices were up by 12% compared to 2022 and 24% compared to 2019. A good momentum for summer, this fits very well into our expectations. I think when I got the questions a couple of months ago, what do you expect for summer? We were cautious saying we hope that we can come closer to 2019 like we have now with minus 10%, minus 9% we'll achieve for winter. Maybe there is some more positive to be seen if the trend continues, we are staying cautious.
If you look at the weekly entries, you see there is still a significant fluctuation, but the trend is right and going into the right direction. As said, we had record bookings in January, especially in online and through the TDA, but it's very clearly that we also see a very good momentum in retail. I can only stress again, retail is important for us, especially the margins we get from retail are very good. There is a lot of commercial reason why we also support retail in markets where retail is strong. If we go to the holiday experience or the hotel and resorts cruise and TUI Musement business, we also see positive momentum there.
Hotel and resorts has seen a very strong winter business first quarter above the strong quarter of the year before. We do see that for the H2 occupancy are seven percentage points above last year and even 15% above in winter. This is really very much encouraging because the early booking help us to have stable or very strong pricing also for the remaining part. As the daily rate is well ahead of previous year and the bookings are good, we very much see a strong performance or we expect a strong performance also for summer. What is interesting is that that's why we we were asked quite often, how do you see inflation? How risky is it?
First, we always say the customer segments we are in are less impacted by inflation. Second, we very much see that our customers are thinking in budgets. They have a budget, and if this budget is not enough for a long-haul business, they buy a short or medium-term mid-haul product. That's why Egypt or Cape Verde or the Canary Islands are doing very well. The recovery in cruises is moving on. Occupancy significantly higher than what we had seen before. Very good is the increase in the second half in the summer season as that was getting more normal in the cruise business as well. We anticipate that at the end of the year, we can come close to what we had seen in 2019.
Yes, there is still a way to go. On the other hand, the recent booking trends are very good and improving a lot. TUI Musement, on one hand, asset is depending on the number of customers the tour operator will bring to a destination, but which is now a very strong focus are the own acquired customers through white label or through the TUI Musement brand, and not only in the destinations, but also in the source market. We are now putting more and more product in Germany, in England into the system so that the TUI customer can book also museum tickets, event tickets in the U.K., in Holland, in Germany to it.
The Musement product will be part of our life, not only when we go on vacation, but also when we are at home. This fuels a lot of new customers into the system, and it's part of the strategy to grow new customers. The big advantage we have, the customer Musement gets into the TUI ecosystem is a customer to whom we can sell all the other TUI products as well. Therefore, the commercial business case is very different and very positive. Overall, yes, we always will have challenges, but we are optimistic. We're seeing that the strategy is working. We do see that we had some disadvantages compared to our competitors because we were only able to hedge late.
With all the measures in place, we are overcoming it, and therefore we are positive for the shorter term, for the summer, and we are positive for the longer term. Now, Mathias, I would kindly ask you to give us more details on the first quarter.
Thank you very much, Sebastian. Thank you very much, everyone for joining this call. Good morning. You've heard the operational development, I think if you now look at the first quarter, this leaves me with three elements. One is, I think, as Sebastian said, this is a good result in a not-so-straightforward environment. At the same time, secondly, this is the right result to move forward towards our targets for the full fiscal year. Thirdly, and I think this is the last thing that Sebastian presented, the last element was the quite encouraging bookings that we saw in particular for the summer.
At the same time, and this is probably also fair and also fair for the winter, the volatility that we've seen in FX and fuel is still something to look at. Let me give you some details on the numbers and then also cover an update on the intended structural measures, the repayment to the WSF. In terms of the P&L, I think it's good to see revenues coming back to normality. I think that's the same shape that we saw in the fourth quarter. As you said, Sebastian, we halved the operational losses in Q1, just to remind everyone, we always see an operational loss. We're now in between 2019 and last year 2022 with this EUR 150 million in this first quarter of 2023. There's still a gap to 2019.
I think just two elements to mention. One is cruise, and we already discussed in December that we expect a longer ramp-up time just because of the booking cycle for cruise compared to their record year that they had in 2019. At the same time, there's also a performance in Canada which sits in the northern region. You've probably all read about the snowstorm that was there at the end of December that has impacted their performance quite substantially. Overall, I would say the rest of the P&L is in line with our expectation and the shape of this and also of the earnings development is a good basis for the rest of the winter, and we expect this, these general trends to continue also in our second quarter.
In terms of Bridge, let me cover this very quickly because in the end, this is within our expectation. All the segments contributed to the improvement versus last year and primarily, of course, markets and airlines. I think one topic to mention is here that throughout the winter also of last year, we've seen quite some one-off. Just be reminded in the next quarter, for instance, there was quite a payment support from the German state in terms of COVID subsidies and we've also seen a positive impact from hedge ineffectiveness last quarter, 22. That's something that will accompany us throughout the winter in all these comparisons. Cash flow net debt before I go to the intended capital raise in today's AGM. I think the cash flow, again, the overall shape, fully in line with our expectation.
Also the seasonality. As Sebastian, as you explained, we started to pay down the hotel lease in the autumn, this is what the result. As at the same time, we have a lower revenue level in the winter compared to the summer, a net outflow. This EUR 1.7 would have probably improved by some amount if we had seen this very positive trading environment in January, a couple of weeks earlier, maybe, let's say the usual start during December. At the same time, the 1.7 is within our expectation, again, the rest of the cash flow as well, also no impact on our modeling assumption that we reconfirm compared to what we issued in December. One element to mention, the interest, the cash interest. This also includes a payment.
This is the deferred element of the silent participation one, which is included here, this further increases the interest payment compared to what we would normally expect. The rest, the normal coupon payment fits in a separate line below cash flow and is here under coupon payment as it is a hybrid instrument. Much to cash flow. I think in terms of the resulting net debt, if we look at this also in line with our expectations, in general, more or less a direct result of the swing of the seasonality compared to last quarter, broadly in line with last year.
I think the good message is, and that's important to us, that the silent participation two of 0.7 billion broadly that was sitting between debt and equity, compared to last year, that is repaid, and this is what we did last summer. This is very good. At the same time, it's very good to see that we now have a good plan to address the remaining silent participation one and the bond with warrants and the drawn KfW amount. In terms of headroom, I think also to confirm that the headroom over the winter has been within our expectations, very fine. We've also seen now with the trading environment a quite encouraging development already in January, which is really good.
Based on the balance sheet, based on the earnings, based on the headroom development, I think we are also very fine with the covenant test in March. Again, something we also mentioned in December. One element to point out before I come to the capital raise and the update there, I would like to update on two things is the discussion on volume, discussion on timing is that one element of this volume discussion is how much have we drawn on KfW, and as of end of December, this was 1 billion. Now this and maybe now moving to the capital raise as a next step on the balance sheet. I think this is one element to look at what could be the potential volume for the capital raise. The second element is what we need to pay to the WSF.
There's a nominal value of 0.5 billion, and we agreed to pay market value of these instruments minus a discount of 9.3%. As of today, this is an amount of 0.9 billion. This is what we can say in terms of update to volume. At the same time, I think it's also fair that we constantly monitor in terms of what could be the right volume, what could be the right target, what could be the right structure of the transaction. It's also a bit early because there are certain steps that we still need to go through in order to be actually ready to go. Of course, investor demand, market sentiment, as you all know, this will be playing the key role.
This is probably all we can say as of today with regard to volume, and that's a question we get a lot, of course. The second question is with regard to timing. If you look at the next steps, the most important, and Sebastian mentioned this, is the AGM. As of today, we've asked our shareholders to vote on the c-share consolidation, so indirectly on the repayment agreement with the WSF. We've prepared quite intensively for today. We have held a quite an intense series of discussions with our shareholders. I think we look prepared for today, and we look very much forward to the vote today, and we'll update you accordingly. In terms of subsequent timing, how can then and how could the implementation of the capital raise look?
I think provided that we get a positive vote, we will see that during the course of today whether we achieve that or not, we will then go to the court and register the capital consolidation. This can take a couple of days. This can take up to four weeks. Once it's registered, we will then enter with our supporting banks into a period where share fractions can be addressed. Shareholders, for instance, in particular our retail shareholders, which have and who have then maybe 11 shares, what to do with the one share that cannot then be divided by 10. There will be a period where there can be a decision-making to either dispose those shares or add additional share fractions that you need in order to have a full number of shares again.
Once this implemented, then we are from a technical point of view, we would be in a position to go into the capital raise. We do have time until the end of December, and we can use then, provided we have all this in place, we can do this in the standard capital market windows. Another condition that was out was the confirmation from the European Union that this is a structure they could support, and we received this yesterday night. Again, the AGM today is probably the most important next step. Let me just add a couple of other elements. This is more a reiteration rather than news in terms of the structure. Volume, again, as I said, there are certain elements that we look at on a constant basis.
If you look at timing, again, the AGM is the next step. In terms of structure, we look at a fully underwritten structure, this is just to reconfirm that we will that we had as good discussions with our banking partners on that. I think on the sanctioned shareholder, this is just to reiterate that sanction law is very strict, that a sanctioned individual or a sanctioned entity is not allowed to participate in such rights issue. I think that's from my side. Again, as Sebastian said, I think we had a sound quarter in a not straightforward environment. We have seen a quite encouraging booking and development in the last weeks. That's a very good basis to look towards our targets for this year.
Most importantly for today is the AGM to vote of our shareholders on the intended structure. Thank you very much from my side and back to you, Sebastian.
Thank you. Short summary from my side. We are accelerating profitable growth. We are going to improve profitability and margin, and we very much focus on cash flow. Due to what we want to achieve today and in the coming months, we want to strengthen our balance sheet and take that as the basis for the growth story we want to deliver. By doing that, of course, we want to create shareholder value and happy partners and happy colleagues and employees. Now we could go to questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question via the telephone conference, please press nine followed by the star key on your telephone keypad. If you wish to cancel that question, please press nine followed by the star key again. Please press nine and star now to state your question. The first question comes from Jamie Rollo, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Morning. I think it's me, Jamie Rollo of Morgan Stanley.
Good morning.
Three questions.
Good morning.
Morning. Three questions, please. The first one is on just on the pricing for the summer. Obviously, 24% is an excellent number, but it is a bit below the 29% you're seeing for the winter and only up 6% year-on-year, like for like. I'm wondering is that sufficient to cover cost inflation? Put another way, are your summer margins higher or lower than 2019 at this stage? Obviously adjusting for the max costs in 2019. Secondly, sort of linked to that, Mathias, you talked about some of the sort of slower ramp-up in cruise issues in Canada in December. I'm just wondering about any sort of spillover into Q2.
You know, when we compare the profitability or the losses in Q1 versus 2019, you are clearly sort of EUR 50 million-EUR 70 million worse than Q1 2019 and Q1 2020, adjusting for max losses. Should we also expect Q2 to be a bit worse than Q2 2019? Also any views on full-year consensus expectations for 940 million. Is that, is that the significant increase that you're sort of talking about for the year? Finally, if I may, just on a separate subject, Sebastian, you were interviewed last month about whether you were open to a new major shareholder. Any sort of update on talks there with a new anchor shareholder? Should we expect something or is it really just a normal rights issue to your existing holders? Thank you.
Thank you, Jamie, for your 3 questions. I will take a few of them and Mathias then after. The one which I would not like to comment is on the new major shareholder. I said what I said, and I think that makes it very clear what we would like to achieve. If I look at pricing, we do see especially in the recent weeks, a strong pattern there. The 6% would not be enough to cover the price increases, but they would be very close to it. What we have seen in the last weeks gives us the confident that prices have become even stronger than they had been before.
On ramp-up cruises, I think it is amazing that they are now close to what it had been in 2019. It took three, four, five months longer compared to the TUI operating, but we are now there. Maybe Mathias, you can say something about the outlook. You know that Canary Islands is for sale, that we are waiting for the TUI operating part, not the hotel part that is staying in the group. That we are waiting for the approval of the authorities. It seems to be that this is not too far away, and pretty likely that the approval will come, and that would mean that the losses we had seen will be going away.
Yes. Indeed, I think, looking at the framework for the next quarter, I think that's a bit of the question from you, Jamie. I think, yes. 19 is the target. At the same time, we need to improve and would like to improve versus last year. Now in terms of cruise, I think that's I mentioned it as a very good example in terms of kind of the timing that we still need this year. I think, Sebastian, you mentioned it, the trading, so the bookings on cruises, this is very encouraging. This is really strong. It's also in terms of price, margin, quality.
At the same time, if you just look at 2019, for instance, Marella, we had six ships in operation, fully booked with all the booking cycle that you normally need for one year ahead. This is just a bit of timing topic that you need to ramp up the product towards this level. At the same time, Marella gets a new ship in the summer. It's currently at four ships, so there will be some change in cruises this year. It's just an example. Again, I think this corridor that we are in in Q1 is probably a good reference for the coming months.
Any view on the full year market expectations for 940 million underlying EBIT?
Yeah, I think, we don't have a real guidance, particular difficult to comment just ahead of the AGM. At the same time, I think in December we said we don't feel uncomfortable with market expectations for the full year. Now it's just one quarter that we had, I think we also said this is a good step into the right direction.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Alex Brignall, Redburn.
Morning. Thank you. I'll just do one, but it is an important one. In terms of summer capacity plans, could you talk about what they are, perhaps relative to 2019 in terms of just your hopes? I know you've talked about hoping to be near 2019. Then as a sort of second part of that, could you talk about the flexibility that you have now to add or take away capacity and how that is relative to the flexibility or lack of it that you had pre-COVID? Just a little bit of a sort of operational assessment of how your capacity plans and the dynamic-ness of the content has evolved. Thank you very much.
The capacity is around 100%, with a significantly higher share of dynamic package product and the future growth. Now the question is, do we will see growth in summer this year or in the future seasons? It will be on a dynamic growth. What we have built into the system is a lower leverage so that we are not hit too much if there is 10% less volume as it was before. We are by far more flexible there. As said, the share of dynamic product in Germany is significantly higher than the U.K., the U.K. is now catching up a lot.
All what we do there, system enhancement, is that we can really compete well with the best in this sector at the end of the year. At the moment, we see the first not only in Germany but also in the U.K., strong signs of growth in the dynamic sector with what we are doing now. It will accelerate significantly till the end of the year.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Leo Carrington, Citi.
Good morning.
Yes.
Thank you very much for taking the questions.
Good morning.
Firstly, if I might ask, can you give your exposure to ski and snow holidays? If the poor start at least to the season in snow terms has had much of an impact on your business. Two follow-ups, please, to earlier questions. Firstly, in terms of the demand building in volume terms for summer 2023, the recent trends are obviously encouraging. Is it right to hope for a recovery in to 2019 volumes, or given the ASPs you have, is there a risk of demand erosion or perhaps could TUI be permanently targeting a higher spend or better mix guest but with a lower quantity?
Lastly, just in terms of that Q1 working capital movement and outflow, obviously this is important for assessing the size of the rights issue. How do you expect that future Q1 working capital movements might be in the context of later bookings coming through?
The exposure on ski is small by the way, it's not only in Crystal, but also on the hotel side. If you look at the results on the hotel side, if we would have had snow earlier, the hotel results would have been better because we have quite a significant hotel, number of hotels in the Alps. The overall impact in the U.K. is very limited. Therefore the smaller volume has not been really a major issue. On the summer, as I said before, we were more skeptical about the volumes. I once said I would be surprised if the 19 volumes are achievable.
I thought that the -10 we have seen for winter would've been something which we could have expected for summer. The recent trends are differently, and I hope that I'm too conservative and I have been too negative. The margin erosion risk we don't see too much as airlift is limited. The capacity is limited. Hotel capacity in areas where customer demand is, you can recall that long haul is difficult, and therefore people tend to stay around the Mediterranean. These are good reasons why the pricing trend is good at the moment and why it should stay good. Maybe before Mathias answers the working capital question, I just would like to add to the numbers.
We had a lower order intake bookings in December and a very, very strong intake in now in the recent six weeks. What we didn't gain in working capital in December, we have overcompensated now in January, February. This is a good momentum. Unfortunately, it was not the 31st of December, but it has been the 30th of January or the 15th of February where you see the strong positive impact we had anticipated a few weeks earlier.
I think there's not so much to add to that because in the end, if you look at the seasonal swing that we had in Q1, it's, as Sebastian said, there were no particular one-offs included. There's good discipline on the asset side in terms of prepayments, et cetera. That's something which I think is in good shape. At the same time, the good business in the summer is something that you then see on the hotel side. Now the question is when do the prepayments from customers actually start to come in. I think that's where we still had, let's say, an unusual first quarter and we had a lot of discussions, to be honest, I mean, a couple of months ago, whether customers would book at all.
If you think about this kind of trend that we saw in December, it was solid and now it's really good. I think these are the elements if you want to look at what could be the working capital swing in 12 months that you need to consider. I think for us it's a bit early to really look at this because these ingredients, how will the summer be? What will be the demand from the customer side? Will there be, let's say, a cleaner environment? All these things will be determining that.
Thank you. Thank you. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Richard Clarke of Bernstein.
Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
Good morning.
If I may, just the first one on this shift to dynamic packaging. Just maybe you could talk about how that changes your competitor set, and your ability to be price competitive against those, their new competitors. Obviously the story used to be that you would use your balance sheet, you would use your own hotels, your own airlines, shifting away from that, are you able to compete on price with those in the dynamic packaging space? Then second question, somewhat related, you know, we've seen this week we've seen Jet2's-Overtaking you in the U.K., it seems. It seems like they're filling the Thomas Cook void a little bit more than you were. That used to be a plan to sort of fill that void.
How important is it that you're the biggest in these markets and, you know, the growth of some of your competitors is faster than you are? Thirdly, just on disposals, you mentioned there that Canada is for sale. Any sense of what you could get for that? Used to be discussed that Marella could be put into some kind of joint venture at some point. Is that still part of the plan? Anything else within the business that you might plan to dispose of at some point.
Thank you for the questions. Maybe I would like to stress that the wholesale package is the core of our business. There is not the intention to shift this part into dynamic package. Whatever we want to do in the dynamic package is additional to the wholesale package. We very much believe in the future of a wholesale package, especially when these are differentiated products. This has always been core of our strategy, and that has worked very well, and it has proven last summer, and we do see that at the moment. If I look at customer satisfaction, it's significantly higher than with other products. The dynamic package is additionally to what we do.
By the way, dynamic package not only means dynamic flights and dynamic hotel rooms, it means also that you can combine own flights with dynamic hotel rooms or, our hotel rooms with dynamic flights. What we do see now is that with limited IT investments, we are able to stay on the same cost structure as we are, but to be as competitive or hopefully even more competitive than towards our competitors who have grown strongly in the future. It's additional product and it's on the same cost and overhead structure, incremental volumes. What happens is that. That's why Germany is so successful. We increase the product portfolio.
Customers find products which they haven't found with us, which doesn't mean that we want to sell the hotel next to the RIU Hotel, but we want to gain our market share in Paris, in Amsterdam, in Miami. Where we have not been as strong and with a TUI quality. I think that is one of the learnings we have. We don't want to be the broadest offer, but we want to have the very good broad offer with very good quality. That's what people expect, and therefore we put so much effort in monitoring every week the quality scores. We are very happy about the development and there's by far more to come. On the Jet2 situation, Jet2 has, I would say, done very well filling the gap Thomas Cook left.
To be the number one is not a target in itself. Of course, with what we have with our ambition, it's very clearly that we want to be the number one, not for the sake of investing into profitability, but with a clear target to improve our profitability and therefore, to focus on the wholesale package, but to add to it the dynamic package and to add to that the component sales will bring us in a situation where we are in a good situation to become the number one. Again, the management is very much aware of that.
I mean, you can imagine that, with my soccer background, a draw is never a good result, or sometimes it is a good result, but it's not the result you would like to see, and therefore winning is important. The management has built a strong plan. We are executing the plan, and we are very positive about the outcome.
Then just the last question around the any planned disposals, what we can expect for Canada, Marella going forward?
Probably on Canada, we cannot give you any indication. On Marella, we said it's the right time will be when the fleet renewal will take place. At the moment, it will be more that we cash in the positive cash flow. It's on top of our agenda. Is it something for the next 12 months or for the next 24 months? We had slightly changed our opinion there. It's more on 24 months because we think we should prove that Marella comes back to the profitability it has before. To achieve the right price, we would do it today. We would give some value away.
The, the target and the goal is still the same slightly later when we have seen the full recovery a normal year. You may recall that the fifth ship is now coming from TUI Cruises into the Marella field. We reduced from six to four. Now we will increase from four to five again. If we have seen a normal season with good results, then it is the right time to bring it into a joint venture because we or to sell it because we very much believe, for example, it would be joint venture that the 50%, could be, have a higher value than the than 100% with all the synergies which can be achieved. Thanks very much.
The next question comes from Jamie Rollo , Barclays. Please go ahead.
Good morning.
Morning.
James, we cannot hear the question, unfortunately, so far.
Apologies. Can you hear me?
Yes. Good morning. Thank you.
Thank you. I've got three questions. I think you mentioned in the presentation that fuel and FX volatility is still something to look at. I know it dragged on the Q1 profit, but could you outline as to whether that's dragging in Q2 as well, and perhaps your sort of hedge position on both those at the moment? Secondly, just on working capital, Q1 had a larger outflow due to this, you know, later bookings trends and hotelier payment inflation by above 300 million versus the pre-COVID Q1. Do I expect that 300 million to come back in Q2 on top of the usual seasonal inflow of bookings?
Finally, on bookings trends, I just wondered if you can give any color about the strength of demand across your range of products by stars and perhaps, you know, are you seeing any customers upselling to the, you know, to the higher end products, or what are you seeing in terms of sort of package versus flight only mix at the moment? Just any color on booking trends. Thank you.
On the hedging, we are hedged in line with for summer, with the summer bookings for the Q2. There is a likelihood that it still impacts the results as we were able to start hedging very late when the rates were not really favorable. That's unfortunate, but that's how it is. For summer, we are in a by far better situation. On the trading development, we had anticipated that the length of stay the customer, which increased by one day last season would go away. That's something we haven't seen. The trend into a branded product, so the upscale product is still there. We don't see that.
The only thing, what we do see is when people think in budgets, they don't go so much on the long haul. They stay more in the mid-haul sector. On all the other trends, it's very stable, and it's still significantly superior to the 2019 levels. It seems to be that this is a shift we do see. It can also be part of, the reason can also be that our market segment, the more wealthy elderly people are less affected by inflation than, for example, families, and which maybe are booking less and later.
On working capital?
Yes.
On working capital, I think what we can say is indeed, as Sebastian Ebel mentioned, January is developing better than we expected. We indeed, if that had arrived a bit earlier in December, we would have seen a lower swing. At the same time, I think you are right in this comparison, 1.4, 1.7 working capital 2019 against 2023. I think there's also a part of inflation included, so there's probably some gap between the years to stay. I think in summary, Q2, we would expect the same kind of positive gap develop at least as a trend versus 2019. Let's see.
It's, we have seen quite some encouraging weeks and Sebastian nodded when we heard your question, and we need to at the same time to be a bit cautious, I guess, on the development.
I would not. Mathias would be by far more cautious. Let's see.
Thank you very much.
Cool. Thank you.
The next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu, UBS.
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions.
Good morning.
The first one on my sheet, price per night, I think it's below 2019 levels in Q1. If you can elaborate if that's due to higher competition and how you expect that to evolve over the next quarters?
Sorry, Cristian.
The second one.
We couldn't hear the first part.
Cash has gone up. I think it's around 640 million.
Sorry, we couldn't hear the first part of the first question.
Of the second question, sorry.
No, of the first question. You were comparing something against 2019.
Apologies. My sheet price per night is...
My shift, the cruise.
Yeah.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
The three cruise, the JV price per night.
Yeah. Thank you. Sorry. Okay. Sorry.
The second one, restricted cash has gone up to 640 million. Is this supposed to go up even further? Will restricted cash go up even more next summer, as volumes pick up? If you can give us a bit of a steer on the numbers there. The last one on Musement, I think the revenues are around 200 million in Q1. It used to be 300 million in Q1 pre-COVID. If you can elaborate on the differential and the evolution going forward. Thank you.
The first question is easy to answer. It's depending on the route mixture and the cabin mixtures. Overall, if you come to view on margin, it's positive. On Musement, I must admit, maybe we had some disposal, but I don't know, I must clearly say.
Yeah. I think indeed there's also some impact from the ramp up in terms of the customer take-up. It's still a bit below what was at the peak season. At the same time, it's.
EUR 100 million sounds-
Yeah.
We had sold some smaller activities...
Yeah
in the crisis.
But, uh-
That is probably the. We can look into it, I mean, it just can be. I mean, we sold some activities and we closed some activities, that is probably the reason for that. We will look it up because all the profit-driving sales are good.
Exactly. This is all within our expectation, as you said.
We closed India, we closed Brazil. We have to look it up.
It's not like a structural change that you see in the business. On the contrary.
Restricted cash.
Then on restricted cash, I think this is something we still see going up and down a bit from quarter to quarter. Depends also, depending on how we then do in a specific market, what we apply for in terms of licenses. At the same time, it's also with regard to our partners and on the financing side, do we get it straight into a guarantee or do we do it with a collateral, et cetera. I think this is something we will still have some volatility until over the coming months. To do the capital raise is probably one of the elements to further stabilize the positions there and also to further improve this going forward.
Yeah. I think it, with the capital measure, will have a significant impact on that.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Okay, thank you. As there are no further questions, I would like to hand back to you Mr. Ebel and Mr. Kiep for some closing remarks.
Thank you very much. Thank you for the questions. Thank you for your comments and we are confident looking forward, not only when we look at bookings, looking at our cost position, but looking at the execution of our strategic initiatives. We are positive on the decisions of today. If there is a positive decision and if the capital increase has happened, we have a very solid foundation for future growth of TUI, for paying back to the shareholders. I'm not talking about dividends, but paying back the trust we received during the crisis by a good development, the very good development of TUI. It's hard work.
There are things which we have over come. We have a good team and we are very confident that we move forward so that we can convince shareholders, customers and have fun while working. Thank you very much.