It's my pleasure to hand over to Rene. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Moritz, and welcome everybody to our Q1 update call. Our speakers today are once again, CEO Rolf Buch and CFO Philip Grosse. They will be happy to provide an update on the year so far, and then answer your questions. But before we start, let me say a few additional remarks. We all remember our last earnings call, and we have received unanimous feedback that it was too long, and we agree. We also received very clear feedback that the Q&A should be just that, a question and answer session, not a place to discuss the wider view of the world. Questions should be related to the business and Q1 results, and here we agree, too. That is why we have reduced the volume of our presentation. I'm sure you've probably noticed. To be clear, we're not leaving anything out that you are used to from previous presentations.
We've only moved some of the slides into the appendix, so they're still there. The other pages have not changed from the full year presentation, so no need to include them again. Rolf and Philip's presentation, I expect, should not take longer than 20 minutes. We're also targeting to let the total call, including the Q&A, not run longer than about 60 minutes. I kindly ask for your support here and for your understanding that we're limiting questions to 2 per participant. If you do have more questions, you're more than welcome, especially as it relates to modeling, and you know where to find me and the team after the call. With that, over to Rolf.
Thank you, Rene, and a good afternoon also from my side. A few things may change, as you have heard from Rene, but we will start with highlights, and this is page 3. Liquidity. With the 3 bond issuance across 3 currencies, all of them multiple times oversubscribed, we have proven again that our access to liquidity is unrestricted, also on the bond side. And the risk premia for unsecured financing are normalizing compared to secured levels. Disposals. We have signed EUR 1.1 billion year to date, so we are well on track on for our 2022 target of EUR 3 billion. Make no mistake, we will deliver the EUR 3 billion, and we think it will be sufficient to complete the stabilization of our balance sheet. If it turns out that the EUR 3 billion is not enough, our disposals efforts to the level will continue.
I tell you, there's still a lot of potential in the pipeline. As expected, the value decline continues to lose steam. We expect the trough in 2024. Can I tell you whether I think that will be in H1 or more likely in H2? I cannot, because I do not have the perfect crystal ball. But that, this is, from my point of view, not the question anyway. What matters is that in any case, it will not be significant enough to impact our balance sheet risk. And there can be no doubt that once values have found their trough, the direction of travel will change because of sustainable long-term rental growth. And speaking of rental growth, the Mietpreisbremse, this 10% cap on reletting, will be extended. But all other plans in the coalition agreement are off the table now. This is a huge success.
Any remaining regulatory uncertainty has been removed. This allows us to increase our rent growth guidance to 3.8%-4.1% for this year and around 4% for the years thereafter. Our dividend policy gives us an estimated dividend capacity of around EUR 1 billion for this year, which is, of course, a combination of 50% of EBT plus surplus liquidity. Any additional capacity will mostly depend on our ability to grow the non-rental segments back to pre-crisis level and beyond. The pre-request for this will be that we can't stop prioritizing delevering over profitability. Organic value growth. Yield compression before the interest rate changes and yield expansion over the last two years has overshadowed the second growth component of our business. And this is what I call organic value growth.
If market yields are stable, the organic value growth from the structural rental growth should deliver more than EUR 3 billion per year. This will create optionality for shareholder value generation in form of value growth in the balance sheet or distribute the earnings, earnings by disposals. And finally, the megatrends. We have spoken about the megatrends many times in the past, but it is so important for us that I want to reiterate the point. I understand that some of you are more pessimistic about the short term and maybe even about the medium-term outlook than others, certainly more than we are. But there can be little doubt the supply-demand imbalance in urban area and the need to decarbonize residential real estate create a very favorable environment for Vonovia. And we can probably all agree that the focus of real estate investments should not be short term.
Let's go to page 4. Our disposal target for 2024 is EUR 3 billion, and as of end of April, we are at EUR 1.1 billion, so very well on track. The EUR 1.1 billion includes a larger disposal to Berlin and around EUR 360 million additional disposals across different sales channels. The Berlin deal includes 4,500 apartments in East Berlin and a land plot. The purchase price of EUR 700 million is EUR 2 million higher than the fair value. So we did what we have been saying, we are selling for fair value. And in this case, the fair value translate into a cost yield of 3.5%.
What is important to understand is that this is a share deal, so we sold a company with an IFRS equity value of EUR 500 million for EUR 700 million and had no cash tax leakage. This is an example for what I call a more intelligent transaction I referred to on the last earnings call. The remaining EUR 360 million proceeds come from non-core multifamily homes, recurring sales, development, commercial, and nursing. With the exception of the EUR 28 million proceeds from commercial asset, assets, everything else was sold either or above fair value, and so in the total, it was slightly above fair value. Let's go to page 5. First of all, any remaining regulatory risk is now off the table. Yes, the Mietpreisbremse has been extended, but that was expected. It doesn't mean it's right or that we are supportive of this decision.
It looks as if Germany's Private Landlord Association is going to challenge this in front of the Federal Constitutional Court. So let's see where it goes. What is, for us, much more important is that we have certainty around the other regulatory risk. They are all now gone. As a consequence, we are increasing our guidance to now 3.8-4.1 for this year. And even more importantly, we see rent growth of around 4% per year for many years to come. The two tables on the bottom of page 5 illustrate how we get there. Please do not take this as a specific guidance on them or exactly on how much the Mietspiegel and how much the investment contributes in a given year.
This is rather meant to be a broad, broad explanation, how we expect to grow rents by 4% per annum in the future, and this is long-term future. So what gives us the confidence that higher market rent growth is sustainable for the longer term? This is page 6. Let's take Berlin as an example, because this is where we have the largest exposure. On one hand, you have what I would call the regulated rent level. This is our in-place rent, the Mietspiegel, and the reletting rent, with or without investments. There is a clear set of rules on how much we can grow this rent over a certain period. And this is why these rental levels are where they are. However, the reality in the supply constraint market is that the gap of rents for new construction and to the real asking price is growing.
And this means that the general direction of travel for the regulated rents remain upwards, because this level feeds back into the new Mietspiegel. Understanding this concept is important, it's also relevant for the valuation debate. Of course, you get a lower yield if you look up today's rent, but the whole point is that today's rent is meaningless in a few years from now because there is a structural rent growth already embedded in the today's rental contract. On page 7, we show that our investment program, what our investment program includes: optimized apartment, upgrade building, and space creation. The weighted average net initial yield for all these programs together is between 6% and 7%, and of course, the initial yield for space creation is significantly lower, as an initial return. This is not CapEx.
We include page 30 in the appendix that explains the difference between maintenance expenses, CapEx, and investments. Our investment program is a highly attractive source, of course, and with the new metrics, we make sure that we finance it appropriately. That means 60% is equity and 40% is debt, so leverage neutral. In addition to the investment program, we also have our development to sell segment. About 4% of our balance sheets are committed to this part of the business. This year, we expect to invest EUR 700 million, but we are also finishing about EUR 1 billion of new products that we are looking to sell. In a normalized environment, we expect on these sales a gross margin between 15%-20%. Let's go shortly to page 8 before I hand over to Philip.
As a summary, what we are saying is there is a current dividend capacity of about EUR 1 billion. In addition to this dividend policy, there is organic value growth of 4%, which should translate roughly into another 3% to part of total shareholder return from rental growth if market yields are stable.
Y eah, thank you, Rolf, and also welcome from my side. Let's move to page 9. The Adjusted EBITDA total, as you can see, is down 3.3%. And because, yeah, essentially the continuously strong rental segment could not fully compensate the lower profitability of our non-rental segments. And here, we essentially continue to see the consequences of our strategic decision that we do prioritize cash generation vis-à-vis profitability. Adjusted net financial result in Q1 this year was about EUR 10 million lower, and that was driven by the full-year effect of the 2023 financings.
As a result, if you look at the Adjusted EBT, that was down 7% year-on-year, we are now showing the EBT minorities, and the Q1 2024 increase is related to the two Apollo JVs, as you would expect. And finally, our operating free cash flows. So basically, the Vonovia AFFO, if you will, is up 24%, largely as a result of the positive contribution from net working capital, and that is specifically related to the development business. In a nutshell, the numbers reflect our general strategy. Profitability is negatively impacted by the focus on cash, and this is confirmed by the operating free cash flow growth you can see in the numbers.
On page 10, very briefly on the rental KPIs, rent growth is up, and you can see that market rent growth is accelerating as we have been guiding for. Fluctuation is also higher than the previous periods, for a change, but I would not speak of a reversal of trend, as this is still well within the general range we have been seeing for this number. Vacancy remains low, and essentially only a function of turnaround time in the case of fluctuation. Similar, if you look at the collection rate, it remains extremely high. And finally, expense capitalized maintenance is very much in line with the prior year period. On the financial KPIs, page 11, we have a pro forma cash position of almost EUR 4 billion.
And if you look at the details, that is including EUR 1.4 billion cash on balance sheet. It's another EUR 800 million of undrawn loans. And altogether, EUR 1.7 billion from disposals, which have been signed but not closed yet. Obviously here, including the recent transaction with the city of Berlin. This is sufficient to cover all our near-term maturities. In addition, as you know, as a safety backup, if you will, we have also a EUR 3 billion RCF, which is fully undrawn. So funding not a concern at all, especially when you look at the maturity profile for the next two years.
Relevant debt KPIs are shown on the lower left-hand side, and while they are still elevated, we are convinced that we have them under control for the reasons Rolf mentioned at the beginning of the call. Moving to page twelve on the guidance. First, in terms of highlights, we are increasing our rent growth guidance for this year by 40basis points -50 basis points, so now 3.8%-4.1%. Some of it is timing, which is why you see the additional rent increase claim changing from more than 2% to around 2%. Second, we are guiding also EBT minorities and expect them to be around 10% of adjusted EBT for 2024. And here, the biggest constituencies are Deutsche Wohnen as well as the Apollo Joint Ventures.
And third, dividend capacity of EUR 1 billion will give you a pretty good understanding of where we think we will end up on the operating free cash flow. We have included some color around the different moving parts on page 25 in this presentation, and I'm proud to say that this is probably a level of transparency on the bottom line cash flow number that I don't think you will see that often in our but also in other industries. And with that, back to Rolf.
There is one remaining 2 minutes left, so we will make it with a EUR 20 million target. Let me just wrap up. We have unrestricted access to liquidity. We are well on track to reach our EUR 3 billion disposal target for this year, and we will deliver it, and we will be - we are committed to do so, and there's no doubt that we will deliver it. We expect the value trough for 2024. More importantly, any remaining value declines are expected to be significant for balance - insignificant for balance sheet risks. And four, we expect an annual run rate of around 4% for our rent growth going forward. Our dividend capacity for this year will be around EUR 1 billion, and we estimate the annual organic rental growth to be around EUR 3 billion if market yields are stable.
The relevant megatrends for our asset class continues to provide a high positive environment. And with this, back to Rene.
Thank you, Rolf and Philip. For the Q&A, let me please remind you that we will be limiting the number of questions to two, and I kindly ask you to honor this request. With that, over to the moderator, Mohammed.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to use only handsets and eventually turn off the volume from the webcast. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from Jonathan Kownator from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. . Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. So two questions, if I may please. The first one, you were rating your organic guidance for 2024. You're not raising your EBITDA total, and adjusted EBT, adjusted EBITDA guidance. What is the-- is there specific reasons, or do you have, on the non-rental EBITDA, a lower start, than expected? If you can comment on that, that would be great, please. And then I'll get to the second question. Thanks.
Yeah, Jonathan, essentially, this is where we expect to have year-end rent levels for the organic like-for-like rental growth guidance. The cash impact and therefore the translation into profitability is always lagging, which is why you see that in like-for-like rental growth, but you don't see that in full in the EBITDA, respectively.
Okay, thanks. So no, no specific weakness in non-rental effectively linked to that?
No.
Okay.
No.
Second question. It's you're guiding to effectively stabilization of valuation, getting LTV where you want it to be. So what is the next phase looks like effectively? What is the offense scenario for you? Are you able to raise the CapEx from EUR 1 billion higher than this, or is EUR 1 billion a stabilized level? And, you know, what is the plan, and would you have any acquisitions, opportunities or anything in terms of valuation you would want to do next? Thanks.
So, Jonathan, you are completely right. The most attractive possibility to invest more money is our optimized apartment program, which comes with a yield and actually in double digits, close to double-digit initial yield. So priority will be optimized apartments, so we will do more, and this, of course, depends on fluctuation. If we have used all the possibility on optimized apartment, we will go for the upgrade building, which also helps us to get a high, a nice yield, but also to reduce our CO2 charges. And if we have done this, and you have seen us in the past, having a significant higher portion on the smaller portfolio, so there is, of course, room to increase it.
Then, of course, we can look for other options like acquisitions or whatever, but I think the priority is on the investment programs at the moment.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Valerie Jacob, from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. So I've got two questions. My first one is on the regulation. So, you know, you're increasing your guidance because you see that the association said that the regulatory measure are not going to be agreed. But what makes you confident, if you could sort of, you know, elaborate, what makes you confident that this is, you know, off the table for good? And if I look at the old manifesto, it wasn't implemented anyway. So if you could sort of maybe sort of, you know, explain why this is sort of for good, or can it be another sort of point of debate in six months' time? Thank you.
No, to be very clear, to be very clear, the Mietpreisbremse, we expect that it will come into place even if the association is going to court. What we assume in our guidance, everything, all for the next years, that the Mietpreisbremse is in place. If not, this would be another positive surprise. What... We are in very close relationship to the politicians, to the chancellor, the Minister of Justice, and the Minister of Construction. And we now know that for the next 18 months, there will be no more further rental regulation. You know, in the paper of the coalition agreement, there was a reduction of the Kappungsgrenze from 15 to 11, and there was also extension of the Mietpreisbremse. This is off the table, and that's why we do not have to put any risk factors in it anymore.
And that's why until the end of 2025, at least, there will be no more rental regulation, because technically, you know, we have an election next year. Technically, the government would have to come with new rent regulation until October this year, and we know for sure that there is nothing else in the making.
Thank you.
Just allow me one further remark. I think German politicians of nearly all parties understand that you do not solve a shortage in housing by further rental regulation. So this is going in the right direction at the moment.
Okay, thank you. My second question is on margin. On page 7 of the presentation, you say that you think that in normalized market, you should have 15%-20% gross margin on development to sell. And I was wondering if you could share your expectation for this year on development to sell and also on retail sales.
We will, we will certainly not see the 15%-20% this year. And this comes back to the clear priority we have in our development to sell business, that we look at liquidity generation, and not so much on, on profitability. So we are not making a loss, to be very clear. So fair value is, is the, is always, the trust value, if you will. But we are sacrificing, some of the margin in order to, to make liquidity. And it's a very similar story in our privatization business, again, for this year. Which is why you also see in our privatization business that gross margins have come down to something, slightly, slightly above 10%.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Thomas Neuhold, from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much for the presentation. Taking my 2 questions. The first one is on the EUR 1 billion dividend capacity. I was wondering if you can share your thoughts on the, on the advantage of a higher cash script dividend, versus using a portion of the EUR 1 billion dividend capacity for potential share buyback, particularly as the stock is still trading at a massive discount to MTA?
Yeah, I mean, part of our dividend policy is that we will offer shareholders the option between a cash or a scrip dividend. I think your question about share buyback in principle is a fair one. And that is depending on alternatives in investment opportunities we do have, if there is ability to invest, but we don't find interesting investment opportunities, the share buyback is an option, as part of the capital distribution.
Thank you. And my second question is on the development business. Can you share your thoughts what the impact of this decelerating depreciation could be, or it's already on the demand in the development to sell business? Can you please also remind us about the total size and composition, held portfolio for your total potential development pipeline?
Because not everybody in the call is probably aware, there is an additional amortization of 5% per year for people who are investing in residential apartments to let it out. So this is a traditional pro program, which we call for the dentist. So high adults income, because they are actually compensating this with their normal income tax. So 5% as special amortization with a 50%, roughly 50% income tax ratio, is actually adding 2.5% of the whole investment every year to your return profile, which is, of course, net very attractive, which actually compensates more or less fully the increase in interest rates.
So of course, by this product, we see an increasing demand for this product, but of course, now we have to deliver the product first. So because there is a clear framework when the building has to be, it's new construction, not existing one. Yes, but it will help, and we see an increase in demand. You will not see too much in the 2024 figures, but later. Yeah, this is actually the answer. And so this is also answered. The big part of the development, what we have today, is probably not suitable for this. This will be the development of the futures.
Thank you. And of the potential development pipeline, can you remind us how large it is and the competition?
So I think the rule is, or the only thing, we want to have a roughly EUR 3 billion invested in the development pipeline. So we have a roughly turnaround of three years. So every year, EUR 1 billion, which is actually our assumption for the ongoing future.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Rob Jones, from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me okay?
Loud and clear.
Great, fantastic. Two quick ones. I appreciate you've got sufficient liquidity near term, and obviously decent appetite regarding your recent, recent unsecured issuance. Just remind me, in terms of the timing of the cash receipts of the EUR 1.7 billion to come in from recently signed disposals, Philip, how much of that is, you know, by the end of Q2, end of Q3, end of Q4? I appreciate obviously Berlin is end of the year, but just a breakdown of the remaining receipts from the likes of Dresden, Seeberg, et cetera.
I don't have the specific breakdown by quarter, but it's all in 2024.
Okay.
The majority is really in Q4, because this is when the Berlin deal closes, and also some other pockets of the EUR 1.7 billion. So it's a bit biased towards the end of 2024.
Okay, no problem. And then the second one was on portfolio values. I think I read in your Q1 statement that you believe from a kind of desktop valuation perspective, that portfolio values in Q1 were flat. Now you've had transactional evidence to demonstrate that. But Rolf, you said that you weren't sure whether values would trough in H1 or potentially H2. Implicitly, should I read into your expectation, therefore, that for Q2, you expect to see some further degradation of portfolio values, albeit at a smaller rate than we've seen in recent reporting periods?
No, just to add, there was not only our transaction, Berlin, which confirms the value, but it was also the Covivio transaction, but from my understanding, also confirms the value.
Okay.
So please don't overinterpret my message. I just wanted to say I'm not sure what the values will be in H1. This was the message, because it's just too early. What I am sure is that the trough will be somewhere in 2024.
Very clear. Thank you, team.
This, and this information is based on several sources. It's based on the data we have, it's based on the demand-supply patterns for investments. It's based on our discussions, which we have, because if you want to sell another EUR 2 billion, you must be in discussions now. So that's why we know that people are ready to talk about prices and the values. This is much more educated than only looking on data.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Veronique Mertens, from Van Lanschot Kempen.
Thank you very much for taking my questions, also two from my side. Maybe first on the disposal that you recently did with the state of Berlin. Are there more likewise discussions ongoing, so perhaps with other municipalities or states? And besides that, have you seen a bit of a change in appetite or acceleration in discussion following the news about the regulation or the majority of the regulations being off the table?
So for the first one, I have said in the last call, it's unpredictable when you are transacting with municipality because they are following different rules and different mathematics, or different timelines, because this is also election-driven. So that's why I, I honestly, I cannot tell you. We are, of course, in discussion, but I cannot give you a, a short agenda, on this, and, we will deliver the EUR 3 billion without municipalities. But I'm, also to be precise, I'm not excluding further municipality deals. I'm just saying it's unpredictable. And the second part of the question was?
Positive impact by regulation on transaction market.
Yeah, this is clear. The regulation is off the table for everybody of us, eh? So everybody knows that of the next two years, you don't have to put any risk into your calculation because there is no risk left. And in general, we all see the mega trends, so Vonovia is not the only player in the market which understands the concept of mega trends.
So my question was, if you've actually seen maybe a shift in your discussions or increased appetite with that risk now being off the table?
No, not really. We see a general interest, and we don't know if this is off risk or not.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Thomas Rothaeusler from Deutsche Bank AG. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. One question actually from my side on the Berlin rent table, which I understand will be published end of May. I mean, just maybe you can provide some color, how relevant is it for you for 2024 rental growth guidance? And actually, what did you assume for the current guidance? And maybe you can also provide some color on the outcome of the rent table. What we have heard recently is that the survey is based on a less favorable sample. Just wondering if you could confirm that.
I will not comment the rent table, and I don't know the outcome. What I can tell you, the outcome of the rent table is more or less irrelevant for us for the guidance of 2024, because you know the story about the Kappungsgrenze. The guidance for 2024, the outcome is not relevant.
It's rather relevant for next year's?
Yeah, probably for the year 2026, 2027 onward.
Okay. Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Bart Gysens from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Two questions, please. First one, specific one on slide 10. Philipp, you say, look, maintenance or CapEx, expense, then capitalized is broadly flat year on year. It's down 4%, so you can call that broadly flat, but, you know, we've had a lot of inflation over that period. So in, in real terms, it's down double digit. I would have thought that goes up a bit, right? Because everything got a little more, a little bit more expensive. Should we read something into this, or, is this more a matter of this is in a three-month number, and therefore it can be a bit volatile?
Well, in fairness, I think you shouldn't read too much into it. And what we have been able to, and that is thanks to much of the expense, but also capitalized maintenance being undertaken by our own craftsman organization, that we have been essentially able to compensate inflation by efficiency gains. Which is why that number is not really comparable to the broader market universe.
But probably to add one thing is, as I have said in the full-year call, in the very good times, we have spent much more maintenance than needed. So this was our, what we call savings account. And you can see it also if you compare our maintenance spending to the maintenance spending of our peers. So now we are coming probably to more normal levels back because we are not building up additional savings accounts. And I think we have discussed it at length in the last call, so-
Yeah. Okay.
It's a stable number.
Okay. That's clear. My other question is about your recent transaction. I mean, you've been quite vocal or clear that you strongly believe that values could be stabilizing, although you know, we're seeing record low transactions, right? It's tricky for us to have a good understanding of what the basis is for your statements. The recent deal again came with a land plot like the Dresden deal. Do you have a lot more of these plots of land that you intend to sell alongside portfolios? I mean, it would be helpful, I think, for all of us to see a clean transaction where it's just a portfolio rather than a plot of land, and land values can be anything, right? Seven hectares of buildable land can be worth quite a bit.
So, how should we see this? Do you intend to continue being creative when you do these disposals? Not just creative on the tax side, which clearly you did very well, but also creative on kind of adding land sweeteners to the deal. Thank you.
So to be very clear, the land is as the buildings valued in our IFRS accounts by the auditor, so it has, this goes through the same process and everything else. So we, if your assumption is that we have land which is undervalued in our balance sheet, this is not the case. And of course, a portion of land we have in the balance sheet is meaningful. I don't have the figure with me, but it's a meaningful portion because we have said that there are only in the development business of 60,000 apartments, which can build it. So there's a lot. So to be very clear, so it's, it's there's no land as a sweetener doesn't work. To be very clear, the political debate, the politicians need the land to tell the people that they can build.
So it is, financial-wise, it's meaningless. It is, from the political message of a mayor, it's very important for him that he's buying existing buildings and possibilities to build.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Thank you, gentlemen. Two questions from my side. First question is on the dividend capacity. You stated that there is a dividend capacity of approximately EUR 1 billion for 2024. If I calculate correctly, that would be more than the 50% from adjusted EBT when I have a look at the guidance. So can we read into that that you have reserves for more investment or maybe you might increase your payout ratios? Maybe not this year, but in the future years. Maybe you could say some words on this, please.
Yeah, we have given last time the ingredients for our, yeah, probably not very easy to digest, dividend policy. And this is just to give you a better grip on the level you can expect for the running year, which is a combination of, A, the 50% of EBT, as you mentioned, and B, the surplus liquidity we have after allowing for the equity financing of our guided investment program, and the outcome is roughly EUR 1 billion, which will be divided by the share count.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Okay. And so, on future payout ratios, maybe too early to say something.
I think the additional notion is that this year is still a year where we don't have biggest expectations on our non-rental business because we prioritize liquidity vis-a-vis profitability. So the chances are really to the upside, but then it's gonna be a question of investment opportunities vis-a-vis liquidity. But it's a long way in saying that I would consider the EUR 1 billion really at the lower end of what to also expect in future yearIn
Mm-hmm.
In terms of dividends.
Okay. Right. The non-rental topics that leads me to my second question. Non-rental segment, the value add segment, that has been relatively weak in the first quarter. So it's about reduced investment volume and a higher cost base. Can you give us a kind of flavor of what we could expect of the value add segment for the remaining year?
S o it will definitely become better, so I, we are don't giving you a detailed guidance. To be very clear in the value add business, especially in the craftsman organization , we are preparing ourselves for higher investments.
Okay, thank you very much.
The next question comes from Mark Mozzi, from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Very good afternoon, all. Sorry, again, to follow up on, on Mark's question, but slightly more, precise from my side. Having talked to, to the buyer of, of your, EUR 700 million recent disposals, it looks like that the land plot, valuation seems to be a, a debate. What is precisely the amount at which you're valuating in the EUR 700 million, the 4 key hectares of land plot in your, in your transaction?
So the transaction is a package, and it's EUR 700 million. Six hundred eighteen point ninety-eight million is the fair value, which we have, which is audited. We are selling actually a company which is equity IFRS value 500 for EUR 700 million.
Sorry, I'm not sure.
Pretty good deal, I would say.
I understand that. So the value of the land plot is how much? EUR 50 million?
The value of the land plot in our IFRS accounting is less than 1% of the total value.
That's EUR 7 million.
Less than EUR 7 million, yes.
I'm just wondering what is the.
Yeah, we're always talking about the size of the land. The biggest part of the size is not, never will be built, because it's not build.
Yeah, I know. 7hectares, it's 7 hectares, precisely, which is buildable.
Yeah.
So that would mean you're selling a plot of land at EUR 1 million per hectare buildable, which
It's not built. It has no building construction, and it has no building construction since the last 20 years, for good reasons.
Okay. Because I'm just trying to understand, what is the difference with the communication of the buyer, saying it's worth between EUR 50 million and EUR 60 million?
The question of the buyer is, but I don't want to go into detail because it's not my point. There was two municipality companies with different capacity of balance sheet, and the senator of Berlin has actually to use these two balance sheets. So it's a completely inside the political question.
Okay. Maybe we need to have this discussion outside of the call. Okay, thank you very much.
The next question comes from Pierre- Emmanuel Clouard from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Good afternoon. So two questions on my side. So maybe just coming back on CapEx, just to make sure that... So you are still expecting an increase of the overall CapEx envelope in 2024. Maybe it could be useful to give us a breakdown between the maintenance and the capitalized CapEx that you are expecting in 2024.
I think it's very simple. You look on page 30 of our presentation. If there's any further question, please, please come back to Rene.
Okay, and the second question is on the ICR. Maybe can you give us a view on where you're expecting the ICR to land by the end of the year, given the fact that you raised a high-yielding debt recently?
We are more or less done on the financing side, have good visibility. I expect ICR to come down slightly from the 4.0 times to, let's call it 3.8, 3.9. That is my expectation for year-end. So we have seen or are about to see trough levels.
All right. That's clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Paul May from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my two questions. Slightly different ones, I'll take them one at a time. I think you mentioned a few times the EUR 3 billion of value creation, assuming no change to yields moving forwards. I recall at the full year results, I think you said at today's rent levels, whatever measure you take, the yield is not sustainable. Are you now saying that your yields are sustainable and will be flat, or do you still expect yields to expand as rents increase, which I think is happening with the disposals you've done, given the deferred completion at today's values? Thank you.
Hello, Paul. We do expect to see trough values in 2024. If we assume no change in yields, no expansion, but also no tightening of yields, then it's a simple translation, 4% rental growth on the top line of EUR 4 billion, times 25, which is our in-place rent multiplier, is roughly the EUR 3 billion organic rent growth. One should expect once we have seen trough levels in valuation.
Sorry, just to confirm, so you're saying you expect yields to be flat, or you assume that yields will increase as rents increase?
We assume yields remain where they are, and that is just the additional rent, which is translating into what we consider or what we call organic rent growth.
Okay. And what's changed since the year-end when the yield was not sustainable?
It's, again, Paul, it's the statement is that we have the better rental growth for the long term. And applying that rental growth, it will do something if you assume stable yields with the value growth you achieve. And that is the simple mathematics of the 4% long-term rental growth we see embedded in our business, what that is translating into in terms of value growth once we have seen stabilization in yields.
Sure. Thank you, and then, sorry, on my second question. I understand that both Glass Lewis and ISS have recommended that shareholders vote against your remuneration policy. I think that's due to the change in or sort of retrospective change in KPIs, under the new KPIs. And I think for your results, you said there'd be no change to your current LTIPs, as per the change in KPIs. So just wondered, are you considering any changes to the remuneration policy given that recommendation, or will it be put to the vote, with Glass Lewis and ISS recommending against? Thank you.
So I think this question is not a question in this earnings call, because the Supervisory Board is responsible for the management remuneration, not the management, which is good. I think this is nothing for this call.
Okay. I'll take it up with them. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Rene for any closing remarks.
All right. Thank you very much, Moritz. That's it from us for today. Thanks for joining. Any further questions, which I assume there may be one or two, as always, please do reach out to me or my colleagues anytime. For today, that's it. Stay safe, happy, and healthy, and have a great day, everyone. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.