Wacker Chemie AG (ETR:WCH)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2017

Oct 26, 2017

Operator

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the third quarter of Wacker Chemie 2017 conference call. At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participant has difficulties hearing the conference, please press star key followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. May I now hand you over to Jörg Hoffmann, who will lead you through this conference. Please go ahead, sir.

Jörg Hoffmann
Head of Investor Relations, Wacker Chemie

Thank you, operator. Welcome to the Wacker Chemie AG Q3 2017 conference call. My name is Jörg Hoffmann, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Wacker. With me are Dr. Rudolf Staudigl, our CEO, and Dr. Tobias Ohler, our CFO, who will take you through our presentation in a minute. The presentation is available on our webpage under the caption Investor Relations. Before they begin, please have a look at our safe harbor statement, which you will find at the beginning of the presentation. With this, let me hand you over to Dr. Staudigl.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our Q3 2017 conference call. This quarter showed a good performance with strong results and cash flow generation. Our strategic plan is working, and this quarter shows typical results of the so-called leverage phase of our strategy. As presented on our last Capital Market Day, we stick to our strategy. We look to keep CapEx below depreciation. We strive for growth higher than the chemical industry and work hard to sustain attractive margins throughout the economic cycle as our assets generate cash. Led by strong volumes in chemicals and rising demand for mono-capable material and polysilicon, our Q3 sales increased 14% over last year and 8% sequentially to EUR 1.3 billion. Strong demand, high loading, a good cost performance, and the contribution from Siltronic AG drove EBITDA in Q3 up to EUR 298 million. That is 18% better than last quarter and 13% over last year.

We achieved this despite higher raw materials and some currency headwinds. As we previously reported, we had an incident in Tennessee on September 7th that resulted in a shutdown of the polysilicon plant at the site. A hydrogen explosion damaged piping, which resulted in a chlorosilane leak. Importantly, there were no serious injuries to our employees, and thanks to the immediate action of the response teams, there was no risk to the surrounding community. We are investigating the root cause of the incident with outside help and have started repairs. From today's perspective, it is not clear yet when the plant will restart. We expect the outage to last a few months. At this time, however, we expect no meaningful financial impact from this incident as our insurance should cover the damages and business interruption.

We are seeing strong growth in the solar industry, targeting about 25% growth in global installations to almost 100 gigawatts this year. The big driver here is the industry-wide efforts to increase conversion efficiency, which further unlocks solar cost competitiveness. Solar PV has reached a point now where it is competitive to fossil fuel-based power generation. In polysilicon, we will focus to expand our cost leadership while maintaining industry-leading quality levels. Our chemicals businesses reported strong volumes in Q3. Especially silicones benefited from a global tightness in silicone products and from an improved operational performance. We are looking at de-bottlenecking efforts to meet customer demands. In line with our strategy, we will continue to improve mix while we maintain a full portfolio with benchmark costs for the industry. Polymers saw strong volumes again in Q3 but suffered from higher raw materials as price increases in dispersions continued to take hold.

In addition to growth in traditional applications, we drive the replacement of other binders by a better performance-based value offering in VAE. In powders, we push the transformation of construction materials towards higher building standards, deploying advanced additive materials. BioSolutions is well on track with good demand in pharma agro. We are making good progress in developing our biotechnology businesses by leveraging our know-how and assets. Given the strong performance of our businesses and the higher Siltronic equity results, we now increase our EBITDA guidance for the full year 2017 to EUR 1 billion, up from EUR 935 million last year. Tobias?

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

Thank you and welcome. We show our P&L on page three. Strong demand for our products led to a 14% increase in sales, with volume and mix being the primary drivers. Our strong operational performance drove operating profit up 28%. Things to note here are the improving business at Siltronic increased our Q3 at equity results by EUR 16 million. Our reported tax rate declined in the quarter due to the Siltronic at equity result and following better results in overseas operations. We adjust our guidance here and now expect for the full year a tax rate of around 25%. Moving on to the balance sheet on the next page. Not much news here. Please note that we have stopped reporting on the remaining prepayment levels in our presentation because that number has now dropped to below EUR 200 million and is no longer an important factor.

On page five, silicones saw Q3 sales increase by 11% to EUR 559 million, following very strong volumes and global tightness. High loading and operational efficiency drove EBITDA up by 27% to EUR 128 million in Q3. Given the strong performance and the order book, we upgrade our full year 2017 outlook for the segment. We now look at full-year sales growth in the high single digits and an EBITDA margin of about 20%. Looking to page six, polymers sales came in at EUR 380 million, held back by currency effects. EBITDA was as expected, sequentially, somewhat down at EUR 57 million. Strong volumes and pricing initiatives in dispersions were not sufficient to counter the effects of higher raw material costs. While we continue to see strong volume growth in both dispersions and powders, we keep our full-year guidance for this segment unchanged. BioSolutions reported sales of EUR 53 million with EUR 10 million in EBITDA.

We reached our original guidance for the 2017 numbers with our nine-month results today. We now see full-year sales at prior year given the impact of currency, with a somewhat lower Q4 EBITDA contribution than last year. Polysilicon on page eight saw strong demand at lower average pricing. Sales in the segment reached EUR 342 million, up 35%, despite reduced availability of material out of Tennessee. EBITDA came in at EUR 85 million following cost reduction and inventory effects. For the full year, we are raising our guidance and now see EBITDA in polysilicon at about 10% over last year, excluding special income effects from prepayment contracts. On page nine, gross cash flow from operations is at EUR 548 million. Our net financial debt is at EUR 464 million, over EUR 200 million less than at the end of Q2.

Net cash flow in Q3 was EUR 205 million, underlining the strong cash generating capabilities of our assets while continuing to fund growth in our chemicals businesses. Moving on to page 10. With upgrades in three out of four segments and a better result from Siltronic, we increase our annual EBITDA guidance now to EUR 1 billion. We also upgrade our cash flow guidance for full year. Given our CapEx plans for the last quarter, we now see net financial debt at about EUR 500 million at the end of the year. With this, let me hand you back to Rudi.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Thank you, Tobias. Ladies and gentlemen, we have seen a strong performance in our businesses this year so far. The recent trends are set to continue into the fourth quarter. The tightness in silicones continues as demand for our value-added silicones stays strong. We work with our customers to help them navigate the tight market conditions globally in this business. polymers volumes remain strong despite an expectation of a seasonal downturn even though raw materials dampen short-term performance. Polysilicon reports strong orders for high-performance enabling materials starting into Q4. We are looking into the very high capacity utilization rates in our businesses and are increasing our efforts to de-bottleneck plants to provide some relief. These developments are the result of a lot of hard work and dedication to cost efficiency and a close commitment to our customers from our entire organization.

We are positive about our demands in all our businesses. We are very confident about our market position and the strategic direction of our businesses. Operator, we are ready to take questions now.

Operator

Now we will begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for our speakers, please dial zero one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If you find your question is answered before it is your turn to speak, you can dial zero two to cancel your question. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. One moment please, for the first question. The first question is from Andreas Heine, Meinerzhagen. Your line is now open.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Thank you very much for taking my question. I would like to start with polysilicon. As far as I know, you have not booked any insurance coverage in the third quarter. Could you outline a little bit what the impact was from the incident you had in Tennessee, and how you see this in Q4, and how you have banked this in the guidance you have just given? And maybe a little bit on the pricing. The price you booked, so what you have in your P&L is obviously lagging to what we see on the spot market. But I would assume there was only a slight increase in Q3, but a stronger one in Q4. Is that what you have also banked in the guidance?

Last but not least, having no volume from Tennessee for a couple of months, so it means nothing in Q4, and already working down quite a bit on the inventories, I guess. Does it mean that in Q3, Q4, the volume will be significantly down in polysilicon? And maybe if I have a chance then, also one question on silicon. If you would do a ranking, what has driven the margin up? What would be the ranking from the three factors: operational leverage, the product mix, and the increase in prices? Thanks.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

Andreas, quite a lot of questions. I will start out with the question on the insurance coverage. You are rightly in assuming that there was no booking in the third quarter. The incident happened on September 7th, and as the claim is complex, there was no big accounting for that. But we felt already the impact that we had to reduce our spot sales. So we drew a lot on the inventory, and that means that we can expect for the fourth quarter that our volumes will be, as you said, significantly down. It will be only the German plants available for production. With respect to pricing, there is always the discussion about the time lag and maybe that is a little bit difficult to read out. I put it simple. What we baked into the guidance is we said we are now expecting about a 10% increase in EBITDA.

If you do a rough calculation on that could mean that we are expecting somewhat about EUR 300 million in EBITDA, and that leads you to our assumptions for the fourth quarter. It also means that we would need to account for the business loss in the fourth quarter as the insurance negotiations will proceed. We will need to book a claim also against the insurance in this quarter. The revenue from Tennessee we would definitely miss. That's how we see it for the rest of the year.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

In Q4, you banked in an insurance gain?

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

Yes.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Okay.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

On the silicon, Andreas, I think you have to look at the total scenario there. First, silicon, the demand is very strong, we certainly have made significant progress in our strategy towards higher value-added material. I think our cost position, especially in the basic siloxane, is very good and certainly up to par with the best in the industry. As you know, in Europe, there has been one siloxane facility shut down, which contributed to lesser availability of basic material. In China, there have been many small players shut down for environmental and safety inspections. Of course, when demand is very high, production usually excels in operational performance. These are the main effects at this point. At this point, I would not put price on top of the list of the impacts right now.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Thanks a lot.

Operator

The next question is from Patrick Rafaisz, UBS. Your line is now open.

Patrick Rafaisz
Analyst, UBS

Thank you. I have three questions, please. The first is on Tennessee. Obviously, you said the financial impact is small because of the insurance claims. Do you think there's a broader lost market share or reputational issue for U.S. operations there, and that could impact the business in the midterm? The second question, BioSolutions. Are you still expecting to incur total integration costs of around EUR 10 million? Is that still the case? It seems to me that profitability is stronger than originally planned here. The last question on the Siltronic contribution, how much do you build into the new guidance for EBITDA this year, contribution from Siltronic? Thank you.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Let me answer your question about polysilicon market share. Of course, this is a no-brainer. Market share will be influenced in the fourth quarter up until we are running again in Tennessee. In the past, Tennessee has proven to be a world-leading quality. This is why we certainly will be able to sell the full amount out of Tennessee again once we have started it up. In other words, we do not expect a longer-term impact on market share from that incident.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

Patrick, Tobias speaking. With respect to BioSolutions, we raised our guidance here, and part of that is also that we see now lower integration costs. That plays a role in our changed forecast. For Siltronic, we generally look at what we have as consensus for the Siltronic net income, because the overall calculation is we take the Siltronic net income and we take off from that the purchase price allocation effect, which I quantified at EUR 5 million per quarter. When we increased our guidance to EUR 1 billion in EBITDA, the change in Siltronic expectation was from a net income that was at, when we released Q2 numbers at around 140 something to 173. The delta was around EUR 30 million in expectations for net income.

If you take our share of it, the 31% of net income, this equates to roughly a EUR 10 million increase just from Siltronic consensus going up from the second quarter to the third quarter.

Patrick Rafaisz
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Understood. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Sebastian Bray at Berenberg. Your line is now open.

Sebastian Bray
Analyst, Berenberg

Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I would have three, please. The first is on polysilicon. I think with regards to the margin development sequentially, Q2 to Q3, some of the decline was due potentially to fixed cost management in the way in which product was sold out of inventory. The press release also makes reference to mix, which is a bit surprising given that I think mono is gaining there. Could you perhaps cast a bit more light on this?

Secondly, is it a bit clearer at this stage, I know you're in negotiations on insurance, how lumpy the impact will be, the payments from the insurance will be, as in, for example, if the plant is still offline in Tennessee next year in Q1 2018, is the best way to model this just to pretend the plant isn't offline and that you get the EBITDA from it? Finally, the presentation also makes reference to some pricing or mix effects in Wacker BioSolutions being a bit difficult. Could you perhaps talk about which product categories in particular were affected by this? Thank you.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

Sebastian, Tobias here. I'll start with the question on the insurance. I think it's a good approach to model our financials from the insurance, from Tennessee incident and the insurance coverage as if the incident hadn't happened. That's how the contract with the insurance works. The damage and the business loss is compensated. While the revenue, definitely we will miss. There might be just also from the complexity of the discussions with the insurer, there might be deviations between how we account in the P&L and what we see in the cash flow statement. Those deviations, I think we should manage. With respect to Wacker BioSolutions, and mix effects, your question, we had a very strong pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals business. I think that basically we have a lot of different products going in Wacker BioSolutions. That was what we were alluding to in that statement.

Sebastian Bray
Analyst, Berenberg

Understood. Sorry, the question on the mix in polysilicon.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

In polysilicon, the key effect for understanding the margin development is really to consider the inventory change. We had so strong demand, with the Tennessee incident holding us back starting from September 7th, that we had quite a substantial draw on the inventory. It means if the inventory goes up, you do not show the revenue, but you get some of the profit into the inventory. If you then draw on the inventory, you show the revenue, so the denominator gets bigger. Part of the profit was already in the inventory. That explains those changes from quarter to quarter.

Sebastian Bray
Analyst, Berenberg

Understand.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

The mix is about product mix and contract mix. We always said that we are selling a lot of different specs, so ranging from semi to mono-capable solar materials to multicrystalline solar materials. That changes from quarter to quarter, also the mix in the contract, which changes from more long-term contracts to frame contracts to more spot business. Also from the product spec, we also sell different chunk sizes, and that plays a role. There's a lot of factors going into that.

Sebastian Bray
Analyst, Berenberg

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Chetan Udeshi, JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Chetan Udeshi
Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, thanks. I had a question on polysilicon. Where margin has continued to surprise on the upside through this year. I heard Dr. Rudolf saying earlier that the price increases haven't been a key driver. The question now, I think on top of everybody's mind is, how much of this is sustainable, or what could derail the margin going forward? Do you see any new capacity coming online which could have an impact, or is it essentially going to be demand-driven that whenever macro slows, you could have some issue on the margin?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

I don't think that there will be significant additional capacity coming online within the foreseeable future. Of course, prices need to go up in order to build a good basis for additional capacities in the long run. I think there will be a continuation of the good performance in silicon.

Chetan Udeshi
Analyst, JPMorgan

That's useful. On polymers, clearly raw material prices continue to go higher, VAM, et cetera. At what point do you think you'll be able to catch up with raw materials in terms of your own prices offsetting the impact or headwind that we've been seeing on the market for the last few quarters? Then last question is on CapEx. Can you explain the reason for the reduction in CapEx guidance for full year? Thanks.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

For polymers, we just announced in October price increases for dispersible powders and for dispersions. We would expect most of these effects to be seen in next year, in 2018. You said that we still see raw material inflation from VAM ethylene. We had now a year 2017, which was up again, but you always compare it to very low raw material prices of 2016. With respect to CapEx, it's a slight adjustment. We now see that just from the progression of our CapEx plan after the first three quarters, that it might look a little bit too ambitious to go for EUR 360 million in CapEx. We might end up closer to EUR 340 million. That's basically the change.

Chetan Udeshi
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Guppreet Sgrger, Macquarie Capital. Your line is now open.

Guppreet Sgrger
Analyst, Macquarie Capital

Hi, guys. Just a couple of questions from me, actually. Earlier this year, there was a lot of noise around stockpiling of solar components in the U.S., primarily due to the Section 201 case. Do you think this is still going on? It'd be interesting to hear your thoughts on that as well as the Chinese solar market next year. I'd be interested to hear what your views are on that market next year. Do you think it will grow from where we are right now? Then I have a follow-up after that, if that's okay.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Well, the Section 201 in the U.S. keeps progressing. As everybody was expecting, there is the proposal for tariff increases. It's really not decided yet whether there will be tariffs or not, because there is a strong movement against it because it will certainly cost many more jobs than it will save jobs in the U.S. I think these arguments are very strong, and they will be considered by the U.S. government. Your second question on the growth in China, of course, it's hard to predict, on the other hand, solar is becoming so attractive, cost-wise or price-wise. Certainly China needs, and the strategy is to reduce the impact of coal-fired power plants. There is a strong incentive to move to renewable energies, which is the right path to progress on, no question.

We certainly have a hard time predicting an exact number for China. I think there are other people to ask that, in general, the long-term growth of solar, I think, is absolutely intact.

Guppreet Sgrger
Analyst, Macquarie Capital

Okay, fine. Just back onto the product mix and contract mix that you guys were talking about earlier on in the Q&A. Is that just a quarterly nuance or is that something that is a structural trend here? I am just trying to get a sense of how important that change was in terms of your product mix and contract mix change.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

It is a nuance in the quarter. Nothing else. The main impact in the quarter was from inventory change as Tobias explained.

Guppreet Sgrger
Analyst, Macquarie Capital

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Benson, Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Andrew Benson
Analyst, Citigroup

Thanks very much. Just a few quick ones. When do you think the Tennessee plant will be mechanically complete? Have you identified the cause of the problems? In other words, do you think that the delay will be sort of inspection driven rather than technically driven? Certainly, tax rate, I mean, you've indicated for this year. Can you give us some indication for the midterm? Thirdly, is there anything you can say on timeline for your remaining stake in Siltronic? Can you also just give a bit more flavor as to what's going on in China with regard to inspections and environmental compliance and how that might affect into 2018, both the silicones and the polysilicon business? Thanks.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

On the cause of the incident in Tennessee, of course, we have a clear view of what caused the incident. On the other hand, we have hired an independent investigator to really be sure that we don't overlook anything. They are absolute specialists on things like that. As long as we do not have the official document about the root cause. We are not in a position to publish anything about that. I don't think it will be magic. I think we, as I said, we have a clear understanding of the cause. The timeline is driven by just, let's say, repairing everything. Technical driven, as you said.

Andrew Benson
Analyst, Citigroup

That's going to take a couple more months, is it?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Yeah. As I said.

Andrew Benson
Analyst, Citigroup

Yeah. Okay.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

With respect to the tax rate, Andrew, I think what will not go away in 2018 is that when booking the equity result from Siltronic, which is already taxed at Siltronic, this will lower the tax rate. I need to look into the numbers before we give guidance for 2018. Yes, they're not there yet. With respect to the timeline of the Siltronic equity stake, there's no news to that to report.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

By the way, on the Tennessee incident, of course, as soon as we officially know the root cause, we will make it available and the corrective actions, we will make it available to competitors who run very similar equipment in order to make sure that this does not happen a second time, neither in Wacker nor anywhere else in the industry.

Operator

Mr. Benson, are your questions answered?

Andrew Benson
Analyst, Citigroup

No. It was the last one was about the environmental compliance position in China. How that's likely to affect silicones and polysilicon in 2018.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

We know that there is an impact, as I previously stated, on the silicones or the siloxane productions. Quite a few plants have been shut down. I think there is an impact on smaller polysilicon plants in China as well. What the impact of, let's say, additional environmental standards is on other competitors in China, I think it's best to ask them. Of course, we do not know that very clearly. In order to adhere to standards as they are in Europe, in the U.S. and so on, certainly some additional investments have to be made here and there. We do not have a clear view on where and with whom.

Andrew Benson
Analyst, Citigroup

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Laura Lopez, Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Laura Lopez
Analyst, Bank of America

Good afternoon. Two questions from my side. First, on Wacker BioSolutions. Other CMO players, we have heard from them that fermentation or high-quality fermentation capacity is rather tight at the moment. We see in general the sector developing very well. Maybe it would be good to know for Wacker, what are your current capacity utilization rates by the CMO industry? Do you think you will need capacity expansion soon, so that you don't limit your growth potential? Secondly, also in Wacker BioSolutions. I think Sebastian already asked that question, but it would be good to know exactly in what kind of products are you seeing lower prices. Is it more in the food sector or in the pharma or in agro? Last but not least, on polysilicon again. What does Wacker expect, or what is Wacker's position?

What do you think will happen if they approve the import duties in the U.S. next year? If that happens, would it be positive for you in the short term or not? What is your position on what, or what do you think will happen?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

On Wacker BioSolutions, on the CMO fermentation capacity. That's certainly true that fermentation capacity is tight in mammalian as well, or at least in bacteria-based CMO production where we are active in. This is why we are certainly looking at de-bottlenecking and potential additional capacity. I'm not in a position to make a statement about the mammalian capacities. You would need to ask people who are active in these markets. On the polysilicon, if the import duties in the U.S. are approved, it certainly means job losses and installation in the United States. I think it will have an impact in the United States. It will, let's say, slow down the growth of the PV industry worldwide. We do not expect a contraction in the PV industry in the world because of that.

I think the U.S., if they will put up tariffs, to use our words, we take a big gun and shoot it in the foot. I think there is a lot of reason in the U.S., they will think about it.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

With respect to the biosolutions question on prices, we definitely see it more in the food sector, not in pharma agro. In food from cysteine being priced lower and also from some trailing effects in our gum-based business.

Laura Lopez
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, thank you. Is this now a sustainable level current prices, or do you think there's more downside potential or maybe an increase coming?

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

I think there's no quick change to be expected.

Laura Lopez
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Sean McLoughlin, HSBC. Your line is now open.

Sean McLoughlin
Analyst, HSBC

Good afternoon. Thank you. A question on polysilicon. Just coming back to your strategic rationale for the inventory build. You had said it was to be better prepared to react to demand swings quickly. I see your China shipments increased significantly in Q3. Does this mean that you were able to sell more than you would have otherwise sold without this excess inventory? In other words, you were able to react more quickly on more short-term contracts.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Yes, that's the case.

Sean McLoughlin
Analyst, HSBC

I guess then as a follow-on, is it fair to assume that you will be selling through inventory in Q4, given the lack of Tennessee? Should we expect you then to be rebuilding inventory through Q1 or as soon as Tennessee is back up and running in order to reestablish that two months buffer?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Yes, that's certainly our intent. As you can imagine, it depends on the market condition.

Sean McLoughlin
Analyst, HSBC

Okay. Could you elaborate on that?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

If demand is very strong and prices are reasonably high, and customers have no problems with ordering material and getting it a few weeks later out of Burghausen, for example, of course, there's no incentive to build inventory. On the other hand, if prices are low, we will be thinking about using this time to build more inventory. It's a really short-term standard business decision, no magic behind it.

Sean McLoughlin
Analyst, HSBC

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Thomas Robota, Societe Generale. Your line's now open.

Thomas Robota
Analyst, Societe Generale

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Three short questions, if I may. Sorry if I missed the tax question before. Can you confirm what do you expect in the longer term in terms of a sustainable tax rate? That's the first one. The second one, a follow-up on dividend from the Capital Markets Day, actually. The guidance on financial debt you're giving of around EUR 500 and the EBITDA guidance of EUR 1 billion for 2017, will already bring you to the low end of your net debt to EBITDA range, at least financial debt. How should we think about that? Is this target range 0.5 to 1 financial net debt, or is it all in? How do you think about shareholder returns? Any change on that, please? The third one on polysilicon, on volumes. If I understand you correctly, the first two months of the quarter, demand was extremely good.

Historically, there was always some lumpiness to the volume development. If you could comment on September and how you started in October from the volume momentum-wise, what you see in the market, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Tobias Ohler
CFO, Wacker Chemie

Maybe starting with your last question. Demand is still very good, and especially on the high-quality side. On the material for mono and high-performance multi, I think too.

Thomas, to your question on tax, as I said, we have the impact of the net income from Siltronic coming into the equity result already taxed, which lowers the tax rate. As I said, going forward, we do not have a number for 2018 yet. I think it is fair to assume for the rest that we would have the statutory tax rate as a guidance. We will update you on that in March when we come up with first views on 2018. For the dividend policy, we discussed at the Capital Market Day that we confirmed the 50% payout ratio of net income, and that we also adjust, depending on where we are and where we see us developing with respect to the leverage target range. I think it will be decided when we come there, it is nothing that we should speculate today about.

Thomas Robota
Analyst, Societe Generale

Can you confirm, please, the net debt to EBITDA range, 0.5 to 1? This is financial debt, right?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Yes.

Thomas Robota
Analyst, Societe Generale

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Andreas Heine, Meinerzhagen. Your line is now open.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Yes, I'd like to come back on the tax rate. Isn't it better to just say that we stay at 30% before the Siltronic? Siltronic earnings might increase quite a bit next year, then you would probably come up with an even lower tax rate. My understanding is that the underlying tax rate basically 30% if you extract what is already taxed at Siltronic. That's the first question. The second, I'd like to understand a little bit more the pricing policy you have in silicones. You said that in this year, prices were not a major driver, more the operational leverage and mix effects and so on. You, on the other hand, said that the market is very tight. Usually, you have pricing power.

Going into 2018, could you a little bit elaborate what you think your pricing policy will be? Is the market accepting price increases nowadays?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

The pricing power is certainly fairly strong in silicones. Prices definitely need to go up.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Is that 1%-2%, or is it 5%-10%? What do we have to have in mind?

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

It's certainly more than 2%. Certainly.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Thank you.

Jörg Hoffmann
Head of Investor Relations, Wacker Chemie

The tax rate question is rather complex, Andreas. I would suggest that we follow up on that. As I also explained, there's improvement in the overseas operations that is also lowering tax rate. We will look into that and come back.

Andreas Heine
Analyst, Meinerzhagen

Okay, thanks.

Operator

There are no further questions at the moment. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press 01 on your telephone keypad now. Currently, we have no further questions. I would hand back to the speakers.

Rudolf Staudigl
President and CEO, Wacker Chemie

Thank you, operator. Thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in Wacker Chemie. We look forward to further discussions with you as the quarter progresses. We expect to publish preliminary full-year results in January or February next year, and we will be back again with a conference call on March 13th with the full-year results. Goodbye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.