Tele Columbus AG (HAM:TC1)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2021
Aug 26, 2021
Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of Telecomis AG. At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. May I now hand you over to Leonard Beyer, who will lead you through this conference.
Please go ahead.
Thank you, Judith. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It is my pleasure to welcome you in the name of Stella Columbus management team to our today's conference call following the release of our Q2 results for fiscal year 2021, which ended on 30th June. This call is limited to 60 minutes. In case of any follow-up questions, Manuel and myself are available to discuss.
I'm here today with Daniel Ritz, Chief Executive Officer and Eike Walther, Chief Financial Officer. Now I would like to remind you that if any lenders or rating agencies are on the call right now that this is a public conference call in which only publicly available information will be discussed. I would therefore ask you to refrain from questions containing information not belonging to the public domain. This conference call is intended for capital market participants only and not for press representatives. If any journalists are on the line right now, we would highly appreciate if you were to leave the conference call now.
Press representatives are welcome to call my colleague, Sebastian Artumiak, to discuss any outstanding questions. Please be aware that there might be a delay between the slides and webcast and the voice transmission. Having said that, it's now my pleasure to hand over to you, Daniel. The floor is yours.
Thank you, Dion. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Warm welcome also from my side to our Q2 conference call. As usual, I'll kick it off with key messages, followed by operational update and KPIs. IK will then talk about financial performance.
I'll be back for outlook and guidance and then we're ready for your questions. So the headline for this quarter is mixed operational results and important transaction milestones achieved. More specifically, what do we mean by that? In terms of operations, the positives are we had another good quarter continued momentum in Internet and telephony net adds were 6,000 and 4,000 net adds respectively. However, another soft quarter on TV where CATV was down 22,000 in terms of customer base.
However, 7,000 of that are a non cash relevant adjustment to the database, which would have been done in Q1. So actually, the operational performance in Q2 was minus 15,000, which is in line with other second quarters. Premium TV net adds were probably stable. The NPS scores remain firmly in positive territory. However, we now see and you'll see it when you talk about the specific slides that they're now starting to plateau in Q2 after rally over many, many quarters.
So that means we need to add some fuel to that fire here continue growing our NPS scores even further, which we are firmly committed to do. We achieved a good rating in the recent broadband connect test, and we're proud that we're significantly higher in terms of points. We scored 26 points more than in the prior year where we also had a good rating already. On the less positive side, B2B revenues are down 2.7% year over year and absolute money minus €400,000 as the in Q1 already anticipates slowdown now materializes, so that's happening in B2B. Now how does that translate into financials?
For Q2 core revenues, excluding construction networks sorry, excluding construction work, we are down 0.6%, so almost stable. Had we had the usual boost from B2B like in previous quarters, we would have been able to grow Q2 core revenues year over year. At reported EBITDA level, we're down 6% year over year. That's driven by lower reported revenue, which includes not just core, but also construction revenues, which are down materially year over year, but that's actually not a bad thing, but a good thing. And an OpEx increase, which Aike will elaborate on further.
We spent 11% more CapEx in the second quarter of this year as we have invested in network quality initiatives, as you have seen in the broadband connect test, those are paying off. And we have also invested further into our fiber backbone rings. In terms of strategic happenings, you're all well aware of that. We just recap them for your convenience. We have successfully concluded our equity rights issue, and we have deleveraged by €360,000,000 So for the first time in a long time, Telecolambos now has net debt of less than €1,000,000,000 and the leverage factor is about 4x net debt of EBITDA that as Aitik will elaborate on.
We also have a new supervisor report since the AJM in May with whom we're working very intensively and very constructively. And as you're well aware, the delisting offer is out and runs still until the 1st September at an offer price of €3.25 per share. And lastly, as we published our talk last night and I'll elaborate on that further on, we have updated our guidance for the full year 2021 to reflect what's now happening in terms of accelerating our investments into executing our fiber champion strategy. And of course, one off transaction costs also had a bearing on that. Yes.
So now on operational KPIs, as already mentioned here, you see the net adds development quarter by quarter for at the top for Internet, where we had another good quarter of 6,000. So that's already 14,000 for the first half and we're well on track to deliver the best full year in terms of Internet net adds in quite some time. On the back of that, we also had better net outperformance, outperformance as far as telephony goes. However, that's very much linked to IP performance as we only charge for outbound usage. In terms of the trends over to its high bandwidth continues.
As you can see here, the stacked bars, the green is the better is the easy way to summarize it. We now have in excess of 75% of our gross adds in the 2nd quarter joining us with speeds of 121 megabits or higher. And more importantly, the light green part of the SAC bar is also growing Now we're in excess of 11% now that these are customers that are joining us with speeds of 2 50 megabits and higher. And I can also share with you that on the back of our current summer promotion in Berlin, where we are promoting specifically the 1 gig, the gross addshare 1 gig is developing very nicely. So the market is moving towards higher speeds, which is a good thing also for us, of course.
Here is the less positive development in terms of TV and other soft quarter. As I mentioned, we report minus 22,000 net adds. However, the operational performance is minus 15,000,000. So you should basically take the 7,000,000 and add it to the Q1 rather than to the Q2 to have the full operational picture. And that explains that is easily explained because the Q1 typically is the one which is the weakest as we are getting also here usually at the beginning of the year, the cancellations from the housing associations, that's the 7,000 that was missing in the Q1.
As far as Premium TV goes with the expiry of the campaign that we have out there, the marketing campaign premium TV net ads were 0 in the second quarter. So that again emphasizes the need to revamp our premium TV solution, which we're in the process of doing. Nothing new to report as far as ARPU goes. Flat on the top, you see Internet and telephony where basically the positive trend in Internet and the less positive trend in telephony net each other out. We reported consolidated, so €24,100,000 in the second quarter.
That's basically that's for the base, of course, not for the graphite. As far as TV goes, also here, at least stable ARPU. We are losing RGUs, but CATV ARPU remains stable at €8.7 in the second quarter. Here's what I already mentioned as far as NPS goes. So first, let's look at the rallies in Q4 of 'seventeen.
You see very significant developments, plus 80 or 70 points in some areas, which is a really, really nice rally that we have. We're firmly in positive territory, but now you see it's getting harder to notch up these green bars even more. That's what I was mentioning. We're committed to doing so because NPS has a strong correlation, of course, also to churn. And we have some initiatives coming, especially now that we have more fuel in the tank, and I'll elaborate on that when we talk about guidance.
And here, you see B2B. So on the right hand side of the chart, you see the 2 bars. This is for the first half where we still show a material growth year over year. However, on the left hand side of the chart, you see the year over year development for the Q2, which is what I mentioned, 2.7% or €400,000 down as the anticipated slowdown materializes in the Q2. And on the back of that, we also had a €2,000,000 lower contribution margin from B2B, which of course also has a bearing on our consolidated EBITDA within Telekolombus.
So B2B, we have some challenging quarters ahead of us, but they have delivered significant growth in the past and will work hard to get back on track there. With this, I hand you over to Aker.
Thank you, Daniel, and good morning also from my side. On the next page, it's Page 13, we have the overview of the revenue development and the underlying trends per category. The light blue bar describes the reported numbers and the dark blue bar describes the development of our core revenues, which are the revenues excluding the Construction business. Is similar to the recent reportings we gave to you. So the decline in reported revenues from EUR 119 900,000 to EUR 115,700,000 are quite significant.
And this is more or less driven by the noncore revenues of the construction revenue. So the construction, the core revenues are slightly down only 0.6% or €700,000 Overall, we have a mixed picture there. While in TV and broadband, broadband's recent trend continues. We saw the first time lower revenues in the B2B business, as Daniel said. The decline in TV is structurally and in line with the development of the customer base.
So we lost almost 70,000 cable TV RGUs compared to Q2 2020, and this results in €1,700,000 less revenues. Roughly 80% of this revenue decline is stemming from the individual customers. We see an ongoing positive momentum in the IP revenues. The increasing customer base there is rising the revenues, but the underlying trend is mixed. While we are pushing the high bandwidth products with high ARPUs, we are dealing with lower ARPUs in the telephony business.
But Daniel has had it and especially Berlin where we have a promotion for high bandwidth, it's very, very positive to us and to our bandwidth mix there. As indicated already in the Q1, communication experienced and see a less active project business for B2B since some of our clients belong to the industries which were harmed by the pandemic, for example, hotel chains or others. But the team is, as I said, working very hard to come back on track there. As a result, we have now the Q1 without growth in B2B and also see for further quarters in this year more challenging. The decline of the other revenues was driven by less construction revenues.
So these are around €3,000,000 and these were partly compensated by other revenues like feed in fees from broadcasters or rental fees. On the next page, we have the EBITDA comparison with the Q2 2020. You can see that the fewer revenues and higher OpEx weigh on the EBITDA there. The reported EBITDA shrink by 6% from 50 7.1% to 53.6%. The decrease is materially driven by the aforementioned decline in revenues.
Usually, the Construction business is a low margin business, and thus, the EBITDA effect out of this business is rather small. Maybe those of you who feel familiar with our business would have expected higher savings than the direct costs, which amount here to €1,100,000 So there are savings out of the construction business, but we had exceptional high cost of €1,600,000 compared to Q2 2020 in B2B. And this way also on the margin of the group. So we have a double negative effect in B2B, higher costs there and lower revenues in this quarter. So but this also amounted to the EUR 1,100,000 less direct cost.
So decrease of the signal delivery cost for TV is due to capitalization effects with regard to fees for the use of foreign grids. So network lease in the context of new leasing contracts that we that were capitalized according to IFRS 16, something we had also in the last quarters. Higher personnel expense due to higher number of FTE on board. We hired roughly 60 more FTEs. And the drivers for that are the technical departments.
We in sourced some positions in FTE, but also finance and field service and also necessary investments in the overhead area are areas where we hire people. And finally, some higher marketing expense and reduction in nonrec concludes this slide.
On the next page, we
have the overview of the net income and the financial results. So we have another quarter of negative net income. The net income in the 2nd quarter amounted to a negative of €22,800,000 So this is approximately €7,500,000 less compared to Q2 2020. The decline there is driven by the lower EBITDA and the lower financial results, where the latter is stemming from prepayments and cancellation fees in relation to the deleveraging in May where we paid back through term loan. On the next page, we have the CapEx.
So no news over the changes there. In the CapEx, we were very disciplined with our spendings in Wage 1. By the end of Q2, we were on track to reach our full year goals. That means that we had €35,700,000 in total or an 11% increase in Q2 compared to last year. This remarkable increase in new network CapEx is due to network quality initiatives in order to lay the foundation for the customer satisfaction what we already started beginning of the year.
In the last week, the team put a lot of effort in the preparation of the planned Fiber champion investments. And now we are ready to start the engine for the rest of the year to invest in our network and the company further. My last slide is the leverage and liquidity table. So what you can see, there's a debt structure by the end of Q2 in the comparison to Q1 2021 before the partial repayment of debt, the Q1. So after the capital increase in May, we used the proceeds to pay back the 2 small term loans, so the €40,000,000 and the €75,000,000 term loan.
And we paid back parts of the big term loan there. So the rest is €462,000,000 which we have still there. And the payback of the loans together with the cash position of €144,000,000 by end of June reduced net debt position to below €1,000,000,000 so €970,000,000 which is quite new to the company and very, very positive. We are very happy as a management team to be in this position. And the net debt ratio is now
at 4%, and this
is quite significant and a good achievement, and we are very glad that we are in this position. With that, I would and we are very glad that we are in this position. With that, I would like to give back to Daniel.
Thank you, Heiko. So now we get to guidance. Let me give you a bit of background to the revised guidance that was published at Hoch last night and which we replicate here for your convenience. So the previous guidance that you see on the far right of the chart was based on what we call the going concern budget approved by the then Supervisory Board in December of last year at the time where we did not know yet whether the transaction that we have done would materialize or not. So this was a budget, which did not assume a transaction and therefore was very much focused on cash preservation as in the past.
Now on the account of improved capitalization, we presented we the management presented to the Supervisory Board yesterday a revised budget that now reflects fully our Fiber Champion strategy and calls for additional spend at both OpEx and CapEx level to start implementing our strategy in an accelerated manner. And the Supervisory Board approved this revised budget 2021 at its meeting yesterday afternoon. And subsequently, we issued the revised guidance. So let me elaborate on the individual line items here. Starting maybe with reported EBITDA, which we have taken down materially, this is driven by 2 things.
1, as I mentioned, incremental spend in areas such as personnel, IT, marketing and others, which are related to the acceleration of our HIBOR Champion strategy. And in there are also additional transaction related one off costs. And taken together, they call for a reduction of the reported EBITDA guidance down to €190,000,000 to €200,000,000 So typically, an EBITDA guidance reduction is a bad thing. In this case, actually, it's a good thing because now it says that now we're at the point where we can invest into executing our fiber champion strategy in a significant manner. The same applies to CapEx, where we now have taken up the guidance on CapEx by roughly EUR 40,000,000 compared to the previous guidance.
And that again is on the account of faster, more pronounced investments in areas such as deployment CapEx, network CapEx, IT CapEx and other areas. They all add up to roughly €40,000,000 So again, in this case, it's a good thing because it says that now we are ready to fire from all cylinders and start investing materially into our fiber champion strategy on the account of improved capitalization. Now you may wonder why didn't they do anything to the revenue line as far as guidance goes? Well, that's easily explained because first of all, we're now in late August. So now that we're ramping up these investments, they have a lead time.
And secondly, many of them go into foundational items. When you build a network, when you deploy CapEx, you're not going to get incremental revenue the next day. So we're building the foundation for a strong 2022 and beyond. And that's the rationale why the revenue guidance remains at the level that it was previously. So that's the background to our revised guidance for your information.
The last slide, which takes a bit of time to appear. Yes, here it is. So just again, nothing new here, but to remind you that the delisting offer launched by Coupla on the 4th August is still running until the 1st September. The offer price is €3.25 per share in cash. And yes, so no closing conditions attached to this offer, just FYI.
And that concludes our presentation, and we are now ready for your questions.
And the first question is from Lars Bank. Your line is now open.
Yes, hello. Good morning, everyone. I have actually 3 this morning. First of all, if we talk now about this EUR 20,000,000 less reported EBITDA guide, how much is driven by higher transaction costs and how much is driven really by higher OpEx related to the new strategy?
Yes. Daniel, thank you, Lars. So we're not disclosing the tax split, but as we have
Sorry, Lucas, I have to interrupt. Your line is very bad at the moment. Maybe you could redial.
It's up or actually Lars' line?
Now it's even it is better now, but for a moment, it was very bad. So please perhaps sorry for the interruption.
Over to you, Daniel.
Okay. Thank you. So sorry, we had some technical glitches here. Lars, thank you for your questions. Look, we're not disclosing the exact split, but we had previously indicated that the transaction cost would be in excess of €10,000,000 So I think you can do your own math in this regard.
But it's a material part, but it's not the only part. And also, please keep in mind that we're now talking about the all the amounts I've given to you or the indications are related as far as OpEx and CapEx into the strategy go are related basically to the remaining months of the year, yes, so they're not 12 months run rate.
Fair enough. And related to that, is it fair to assume that the portion which really relates to the accelerated OpEx in line with the new strategy, that this is really a start up cost to get the project up and running and to make yourself wholesale ready? Or is that something which will recur next year given that's now the path you are going down to? I think that's a question more around sustainable margins now, right?
Yes. Look, so I mean, it's both, right? So there are things which are like one time and there are others which are more recurring nature. So hiring more people, they're not going to disappear as 1st of January 2022. So they're going to remain here.
So these are recurring costs that we carry through. But all of this eventually will translate into incremental revenue. It's just that, as I was trying to explain, it's there's a bit of a time lag. You invest into deployment projects, for instance, you have bring onboard new people, additional people to drive revenue, that will have a certain lead time until that revenue growth starts to appear. So I don't know whether I answered your question.
Okay. Okay. But you wouldn't give us a number or a ballpark of how much of the EUR 20,000,000 dollars will be recurring really next year?
No. When it looks at that then we get into levels of detail, which we don't really disclose. As I mentioned, some of that cost is one off transaction related, some of that is the rest is operational and of the operational, some are more like one time, like kickoff and there are others that are recurring. But we're not going to get into the details, but I can give you the areas again. No, it's personnel, it's marketing, it's IT and it's a couple of other areas.
But they are not 12 month run rates. They are for the remainder of this year.
Got it. Got it. Got it. And then maybe to the second question, when it comes to CapEx. So the guide there was up by EUR 40,000,000.
Probably that is also related to the second half really. So if you analyze that, you probably get closer to EUR 100,000,000 of incremental CapEx spend. Now of course, at the same time, we know you want to spend quite a bit, right? You want to spend EUR 2,000,000,000 over the next 10 years, which would imply EUR 200,000,000 on a linear basis. But is it fair to assume that maybe at the beginning of the project, you spend a bit below that EUR 200,000,000 average, closer to the €100,000,000 ballpark just until you have more critical mass on the holder sales front really?
Yes. Look, so your assumption is correct, right? I mean, when you scale up an engine, it takes time to scale it, especially on deployment. You cannot spend everything day 1. So first, we need to win additional housing association projects, which is the housing or the housing association guys do.
And then we define the projects and then we spent the CapEx and it takes a bit of time scale up the engine. So your assumption is correct. This is not the run rate yet that you will see when we are in full swing. And again, remind you this is for the remainder of the year, now 12 months.
And also just as an add on, Lars, remember that the €2,000,000,000 you are referring to is is in relation to network CapEx, yes? The overall envelope is closer to SEK 3,000,000,000 over 10 years.
No, no, absolutely, absolutely. Thank you for that, Leer. I think that question related to that really is, is that something you disclose, how much FTTH you have spent, let's say, in full year 2020 or even better in the first half of twenty twenty one?
No. Unfortunately, no, look, so I mean, this is also please bear with us. This is also competitively sensitive information and we're well aware that there are some competitors out there. So we're not disclosing this level of detail. However, you can track what we do in terms of FTTH, because when we do a material size FTTH project, several 1,000 homes connected, we typically do a press release.
So there were several of them over the course of the last few months.
And also remember what we shared initially in August 2020, when we highlighted that roundabout 15%, so 1.5% of our IP enabled network is based on FTTH, respectively, FTTB. And then we gave you the numbers of what these build out costs. So all that is in the market. But again, it's 15% of our IP enabled network. I think this number hasn't moved a lot over the past 12 months.
I think you will get a better sense of annual run rates once we guide for the full year 2022. Because here, we're in transition year, right? We saw the first couple the first half plus was going concern and now we're starting to ramp up the Fiber Champion execution. So it's quite difficult to read something from this. I think, as I said, full year 2022 guidance will give you a much better idea of the shape of things to come.
Okay. Okay. Understood. Now I guess with the information Lior just provided, you can obviously come up with an estimate on that. So thank you for that.
The last question really and thank you again for your time this morning. Any updated or latest view on the regulatory change on cable TV billing in Germany? And if you can remind us maybe of what's going on there, the time line and how you see this impact in telecolumbus down the line?
Sure. Look, so as far as the law goes, nothing new. The law has been passed, and it's coming into effect 1st December of this year. And it says that as of mid-twenty 24, there shall be no more bulk billing for CATV. That goes away.
So it will have to be individual billing. Nothing new in this regard. We are now working internally to in anticipation of that to strategize how we best do this. What we know what we do know is that by mid-twenty 24, all those concessions where we have bulk billing today will have to be switched over to individual billing. So that's one an activity with the housing associations because we need to change that contract because where it's today bulk billing that needs to be changed to individual billing.
And secondly, of course, we will need to approach the tenants that are today under a bulk billing contract and to entice them to join us as individual customers for our TV product. So that's basically what's happening. And in terms of impact, I mean, it's these are counterbalancing effects, right, as we've disclosed before. On the bulk, you have basically 100% penetration, unless apartments are empty, so let's call it maybe 90% or 95%. And on the individual contracts, by definition, you will have less.
So we'll have less penetration. However, we do know from concession agreements where we today already have individual billing, we have an idea where we're going to land in terms of penetration. And as far as ARPU goes, and that's the argument that we have used towards the politicians, but they were not willing to listen, is that it actually will get more expensive for tenants. Because today on the bulk billing contract, typically the ARPUs are lower and now they're going to go up. Having said that, we are also well aware there's a competitive market out there for TV products.
And therefore, the TV ARPU will not increase materially, but it will increase. But the most important thing is that we upgrade and we're working on that, our TV proposition because clearly today, CATV appeals to some but not to all. So these are some of the effects that we anticipate and things that we are working on.
Thank you. Thank you very much, all. Thank you.
You're most welcome.
The next question is from Pete McCall, Rubira. Your line is now open. At the moment, we can't hear you. Pete McCord, your line is now open. You can ask your question.
Okay. Then we move to the other
couple of questions. The first one was just a bit of a to your point, but just there was a $30,000,000 working cap out flow in the quarter, which seems quite large compared to historic trends. I was just sort of wondering what that was related to.
Yes. I take this question, Bruno. It's really related to the transaction costs. So we some costs where you can also see in the financial result and some prepayments and cancellation fees and so on and this increased working capital, so no operational basis for this.
Okay. And then just on the CapEx guidance, I just wondering how much of that is actually cash CapEx?
Yes. In most cases, it is cash CapEx, but we are reporting usually the normal not cash so it's a more balance sheet CapEx what we have. So also the financial leases, for example, they are also in. But just with the amount what we need to pay in this year, right? So if we prolong something, if we rent a network or a leased line, this is with the 10 years contract, we just pay for 1 year, and this is what we show on our CapEx.
And this is included in the guidance, not the full amount. And of course, you have also own work capitalized in, which is not cash reserve amount.
Okay. So the CapEx guidance includes the annual capitalized as well? Yes. The cash number will be maybe like 1.50
No. This is nothing but we disclosed. I think we have this toolkit there. But I think it will be in line. If you have the annual report from last year and the half year report.
This is in line everything what we saw there. So we increased the amount of development CapEx and also the unreal capitalized will slightly increase related to this.
Okay. All right. And then just last question was just I was just wondering if I think you could update on how you might approach your future financing needs just given obviously the $2,000,000,000 CapEx bill that you've got ahead of yourselves in that.
Yes. So our existing facilities have the maturity until 20 24. So we are well financed in 2025, the bond there. And so we are well financed right now. We have sufficient liquidity at hand.
And we have we don't have a midterm guidance out by now. So we will decide together with our Supervisory Board on a midterm plan. And within the budget process by the end of this year, we will decide when we will and when we have to and when we will approach the financial market again.
At the moment, we have no further questions. And we have a next question. It is from Pierre Merveille ODDO. Your line is now open.
Yes, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I have 3 actually. Can you give some color about the revenue trend for B2B in Q3 and Q4 after the revenue decline in Q2? And second, as CapEx are accelerating, how do you see the leverage moving going forward? And finally, can you just give some update about discussions with telcos?
And are you confident to secure new wholesale agreements? Thank you.
Yes, Pierre. Thank you. Look, so on B2B, we're not guiding at revenue level the individual business units. So sorry for that. But as we said, the Q2 is not over yet.
So the weakness will remain and we are not expecting material growth for B2B for the remainder of the year. Let's maybe leave it at that. So that's on B2B. Sorry, on your CapEx, I'm not sure I got the question.
What was that question again?
It was a question about the leverage for trajectory as CapEx are accelerating.
So, Rick, another question regarding the leverage, Pierre. So I think we are very comfortable with our current situation and we have also enough liquidity. On top, we have further €75,000,000 commitment from our main shareholder by now. So there could be another capital increase. But over time, of course, we will start with the heavily investing period.
But over time, also the EBITDA needs to increase. So the debt ratio should I expect it to increase, but not to the levels we had seen before the deleveraging event because we would like to invest in the company and the substance of the company and this will increase also the revenues and by that the EBITDA.
Okay. And then I'll take your last question on wholesale. Look, so Telefonica is operational now for 1 month. So it's still early days, but it's working. And with 1 on 1, as you know, we have disclosed that we have signed the binding pre contract.
We're in the process of finalizing the main contract. And then in parallel already starting work on the implementation. So that's going in the right direction. And of course, there are discussions, but we are not disclosing the nature of those discussions because they are, by definition, confidential and outcome is uncertain.
Very clear. Thank you.
And the next question is from Neil O'Neill, Haus, DBC Credit Partners. Your line is now open.
Yes. Hi. Sorry. Is this this is Julian, can you hear me?
Hey, Julian. Good morning. Yes, we hear you.
Fantastic. Yes, I just have a follow-up on an earlier question just about the EBITDA guidance. So it's obviously kind of €25,000,000 to €30,000,000 lower and that's just for what the remainder of the year is basically starting today, right? So not even 6 months run rate impact there. And taking what you said earlier on the kind of larger than €10,000,000 one off costs that you've already stated previously and doing my own math there a little bit.
I get to kind of a full year run rate of €30,000,000 to €40,000,000 impact, which granted you mentioned that not all of it will be fully recurring and there will be also in the OpEx some one off items. And you're not really guiding for an exact split, but this $30,000,000 to $40,000,000 number seems kind of high and surprises us anyways, also in relation to the fact that the CapEx spend gets to kind of fully ramp up and you have yet to see what kind of revenue impact you can actually expect from whatever CapEx you will spend, right? So if you could give a little bit more color on that, that would be helpful. Thank you.
Yes. Junin, Danny here. Look, so, you do your own math. I would say you're probably on the high side with the numbers, but I will not say more than that because we're not guiding on those numbers, But they look high to me, what you said about the recurring effect now. But look, so please keep in mind that Telecolombus, we're not just accelerating our new strategy.
We also come out of a period where we were extremely cash constrained. So we also have holes in the existing organization that we need to basically fill to be ready to fire from all cylinders. So it's not all new stuff related to future Firebird Champions strategy. That's 1. 2, we're not the CapEx spend is not going in to new fancy areas where we say, let's see good luck, let's see what happens.
We're doing more of what we already do and we do it faster and we do it with more vigor and more in an accelerated manner. So deploying housing association contracts, deploying CapEx for those housing associations and driving B2C and wholesale growth through that is already what we have been doing. So the execution risk on that is significantly different from saying let's now venture into something new that we have never done before. And we have clearly said that when we presented our Fiber Champion strategy a couple of months back that this company will go operating free cash flow negative for quite a few years. That's the nature of infrastructure investments.
So that's not a surprise. Don't know whether that's helpful as an explanation to your question.
Yes, yes, it's helpful. Thank you.
You're welcome.
As we have no further questions, I would like to hand back to the speakers for some closing remarks.
Thank you very much, Judith, and thanks to all of you participating this morning. And yes, I would like to hand over to Daniel for closing remarks.
Thank you, Leo. Thank you, everyone, for joining this morning. I hope this was useful to you in terms of presentation and Q and A, and we look forward to Q3. Thank you. Bye.
Bye bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.