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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Mar 10, 2022

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to Anora's 2021 results presentation. I am Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm from Anora's Investor Relations. Our speakers today are CEO Pekka Tennilä and CFO Sigmund Toth. It has been horrible to follow all the news from the war in Ukraine, and before we go into the results, Pekka will shortly discuss the impacts and uncertainties relating on that for Anora. Then Sigmund will talk you through Arcus standalone results and continue with the financials. For the Q&A, we invite your questions through the team's chat, and actually you can already send your questions to us during the presentation. It's also possible for you to use the Raise Your Hand function if you want to ask the questions personally.

Before handing over to Pekka, I would like to remind you that, just like in the Q3 report, Arcus is reported as the fourth segment of Anora. As of Q1, we will be reporting with the new segments, which will be Wine, Spirits, and Industrial. Finally, please note that we are recording this presentation, and the on-demand version will be available later on our website. With this, we are ready to start. Pekka, please go ahead.

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Thank you, and welcome on my behalf as well. First of all, as Tua said, it has been shocking to see the development in Ukraine, and we are deeply concerned about the war and want to offer our support to Ukrainian people. A week ago Monday, we sent out a press release saying that we will suspend all sales to Russia and that a donation of EUR 50,000 was made to Red Cross to support the Ukrainian people. From the business point of view, both Russia and Ukraine are important exports markets to us. We have one distributor in each market. It's mainly exports of Koskenkorva vodka.

From the group perspective, it is not a major; it doesn't have a major significance. We haven't had any business in Belarus since 2020. The indirect effects of the war are expected to be significant, including global supply chain possible disruptions, expected further price increase of grain and obviously further price increases across many input costs. Going back to Anora, today we are the leading wine and spirits brands house in the Nordics. We are very proud of our sustainability work, and we believe that we are one of the forerunners in our industry globally in sustainability. We have the number one market positions both in wine and spirits.

Last year, our pro forma net sales amounted to EUR 665 million, and comparable EBITDA was EUR 101 million. We employ about 1,100 people across Northern Europe. Our distilleries are located in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The main production facilities are in Norway and Finland, a small one in Estonia, and a cognac house in France. After the merger, we built a strong local sales force in our home markets to be able to serve our partners and customers even better. We feel we have a very strong platform to build upon. With the merger we are stronger and, as said, we have a better platform to grow.

We have a market-leading portfolio with own and partner brands, covering all categories and price segments. To our partners, we provide insight on Nordic consumer. We can offer the superior route to market and sales force, locally present in all customer segments. Sustainability is at the core in everything we do. For us, it means, for instance, developing sustainable packaging for wines and spirits, as a considerable part of the carbon footprint of beverage product is related to packaging. With the merger, we have taken a step change in scale, which allows us to drive productivity further. Last but definitely not the least, we have a strong growth ambition.

Our strong financials puts us in a good position to pursue growth opportunities, and we see that M&A will play an important role in the future. We're working on Anora's growth strategy, and we'll come back to that after the summer in our Capital Markets Day. Now let's move on to talk about the 2021 results with the key highlights. Last year, COVID restrictions on trade and traveling continued to impact our market environment in a significant way. The market volumes in the monopolies were extraordinarily high. Supported by these, we are reporting very strong results for 2021. On a pro forma basis, net sales grew by 6% to EUR 665 million and comparable EBITDA grew by 3% to EUR 101 million.

I want to take this opportunity to thank all Anora employees for their excellent work to get to these results. In the last quarter, we started to see the markets going back to normal, which was also reflected as lower monopoly volumes versus Q4 last year. On the cost side, we were faced with a historically sharp increase in input costs, and specifically the cost of barley reached a record high level. On pro forma basis, net sales grew to EUR 206 million and comparable EBITDA reached EUR 31 million. I will go through the Q4 results in more detail later on.

During the last quarter, we worked hard on the merger integration and for instance, focused very much on the people processes as we were restructuring our organization according to the new operating model. Overall, I'm pleased to say that integration has progressed according to plan and is on schedule. The board has made its proposal to the AGM to pay EUR 0.45 per share as dividend. Before we go dive into the segments more in detail, let's discuss the market development. When we talk about the Nordic market, this essentially means the state monopolies in Sweden, Finland, and Norway. In these monopoly markets, normally some 90% of the overall market volumes go through the monopolies, and the remaining 10% is split on on-trade and to a smaller extent, on grocery trade when it comes to wine and spirits.

During the pandemic, we have experienced historically high monopoly volumes because the restrictions in restaurants and traveling shifted demand to those stores. If we look at the development during the past two years, we can see that in 2020, the increase in volumes was extremely high with an overall growth of 70%. Last year in 2021, we could already see some movements towards more normal levels as restrictions were from time to time lifted, and so the overall volumes were flat compared to 2020. However, as can be seen from the chart on to the right, the volumes in 2021 were still well above the 2019 levels, specifically in Norway with 44% above a normal level.

Now, as the societies have more or less removed all restrictions, we can expect the monopoly volumes during 2022 to return to pre-pandemic or 2019 levels. Let's move on to look at the former Altia in Q4. Here we report the Finland exports, Scandinavia and Altia Industrial segments. We see a good top line development with net sales growth of 8% to EUR 115 million in Q4, and 6% growth to EUR 362 million for full year. All segments contributed to growth, and I'll discuss the segments in more detail shortly.

Comparable EBITDA for former Altia stood at EUR 16.3 million in Q4, which corresponds to a margin of 14.2%, behind previous year, mainly due to high barley cost and somewhat bigger investments into marketing of our brands. For the full year, EBITDA amounted to EUR 51.8 million with a slight decline from previous year and corresponding to a margin of 14.3%. Next we look at Finland and Exports segment. Finland Exports is reporting strong results for Q4. Here we see the positive impact of the markets returning to normal after COVID, as former Altia exports and travel retail are reported in this segment. The solid net sales growth of 10% was driven by good recovery of travel retail exports on-trade and the Baltic.

Sales to the monopoly declined, mainly due to the overall lower market volumes and the weaker development of own wine brands. While total wine sales grew, driven by the recovery of travel retail. In the Finnish grocery trade, we saw the solid development continuing. Comparable EBITDA grew from EUR 6 million last year to EUR 7 million, corresponding to a margin of 18.6%. This improvement was driven by high volumes in travel retail exports, which offset the impact of lower monopoly sales and the increased marketing spend due to a higher activity level compared to last year. On the right, you can see some of the Q4 launches in line with our ambition to bring our brands to new markets.

We have brought Larsen Aqua Ignis to U.S. and German markets. This is the first cognac in the world aged in steam-toasted barrels and reflects the brand's ambition to be the most innovative brand globally. We also introduced Valhalla and Koskenkorva Vodka in Switzerland. Many Finns, all Finns will be familiar with the next brand, Jaloviina, which this year celebrates its 90th anniversary. For that occasion, we have launched a limited edition. From the wine side, we launched a new prosecco and won a new listing for Los Tocales red wine bag-in-box. Now moving on to Scandinavia segment. In Scandinavia, net sales grew by 2% to EUR 47 million. In constant currencies, net sales declined by 0.8%.

Here it is important to remember that the brands that were divested due to the merger were reported in former Altia in Scandinavia segment. The divestments was closed in Q4 and it explains the decline in the segment spirit sales from previous year. In Sweden, net sales of both spirits and wine grew. We had a very strong Blossa season, both in monopoly and grocery trade. In addition, new partners and novelties and on-trade recovery contributed to growth. In Norway, net sales grew, driven by on-trade and higher spirit sales. In Denmark, net sales declined due to brand divestment. Comparable EBITDA was below last year at EUR 7.7 million, which gives a margin of 16.2%.

The decline is driven by the brand divestments and also the increased marketing spend, due to higher activity level, versus last year, COVID year. Product mix, a strong Blossa season, and revenue management contributed positively on EBITDA. A few highlights from recent launches in Scandinavia. The non-alcoholic and low-alcoholic category, or no low, is still a small category, but a growing one, driven both by consumer demand and new innovations. We're taking an active role in transforming this category. In Q4, the O.P. Anderson Distillery's Alkoholfri S naps was launched in Sweden. The novelty includes three different flavors and was immediately rewarded at the Spirits Business Low & No Masters.

In Norway, we have strengthened our partner portfolio with De Kuyper Royal Distillers world-leading brands in different categories such as Peachtree and De Kuyper's liqueurs. To conclude my first part, let's look at Altia Industrial. There we see strong top line development with net sales growing by 16% to EUR 30 million. This is mainly due to higher contract manufacturing volumes than in previous year and pricing due to increased cost of barley. In starch and feed, net sales development was positive, supported by pricing, while volumes were below last year's level. Technical ethanol net sales were stable despite slightly lower volumes. Comparable EBITDA declined to EUR 2.5 million, which gives a margin of 8.3%.

The decline was due to higher cost of barley and imported ethanol, as well as higher OpEx in logistics. Sigmund will discuss barley more, but just to mention that the barley consumption in 2021 was slightly lower than in 2020. This concludes the review of former Altia segments. All in all, a very strong top line development, whereas profitability was impacted by barley and higher marketing investments. Now I will hand over to Sigmund.

Sigmund Toth
CFO, Anora

Thank you, Pekka, and warm welcome to everyone from me as well. What I'll be going through now is the former Arcus, and I would like to remind everyone that these figures which we are showing here, they are prepared on a illustrative basis to help you understand the real underlying evolution of the business. Of course, they differ from the reported figures in where it's the time of the merger which is the basis September 1st. Here we are showing apple-to-apple figures for the former Arcus business.

The Arcus figures for Q4 are heavily impacted by the fact that Norway is such a big part of the numbers and that, as Pekka mentioned, while for a whole, volumes in the monopolies for 2021 we're still at a very much higher level than 2019, the last, let's say, normal year. In Q4, at least the first half of the quarter in 2021 was more of a, let's call it a normal year. What that means is that we were facing very tough comparables. As a result, in Q4 the reported net sales declined by 3% to EUR 91 million.

In current constant currencies, they actually declined by 6%. For the year as a whole, though, the performance was very strong. I would say reported net sales grew by almost 5%, and in constant currency, 0.6%. Comparable EBITDA for the year as a whole was also up, both in absolute terms and actually the margin was up as well. Whereas we'll go through this in more detail in the ex-Arcus segment-by-segment Q4 results, they were impacted by this decrease in sales and also other factors that we will go through.

That, while still a strong result, the comparable EBITDA was lower at EUR 15 million and with lower margin than the very, very strong and exceptionally high figure of last year. With that, we take a closer look at Wine. Here, in Wine, we really see this is the former Arcus segment, which was the most impacted by what I mentioned, the normalization of volumes in the monopolies, and particularly in Norway. Reported net sales declined by 6% and in constant currencies by 8.5%. Two effects we see here. There were lower market volumes in all three monopolies with the COVID-19 normalization.

There were also a second effect that we saw last year, an additional boost even beyond the COVID volumes in that our portfolio with a lot of bag-in-boxes was exceptionally well-positioned for that sort of demand in the early COVID times. Now we see a tendency more towards bottles and higher-priced wines. Here our portfolio is relatively speaking, less well-positioned. There is also, let's call it a second normalization effect. You know, if you look country by country, still good performance in Norway of our own brands. Sweden was at last year's level, and then in Finland we were a bit down due to some loss of some partners.

Now when we look at the profitability, it's still at a very, very high level with the 17% margin for Q4. I think that we are happy with that result. Compared to last year's exceptionally high level of 19%, it's down. I mean, due to the lower sales volume. We do have fixed cost, and with the lower sales volume and lower sales, that has an impact on the margin. Product mix with the lower bag-in-boxes. Then we were able to, and I think that's a good thing, to spend more on marketing than in the last year. That was not really possible, and that is also having an impact on profitability, but is an investment into the future.

You know, when speaking of the future, we can mention you see the products on the right there. There is the Wongraven Barolo. It's an own brand with an exceptional track record of these last years, and the Barolo is the latest addition to the family. Then we have on the partner side we have won two wine tenders at Vinmonopolet for Maison Champy, which is part of the AdVini Group. We are excited about those two. We are also excited about the two right-most products you see are in cans. This is from our partner, Pedregosa.

I think both Altia and Arcus they have been at the forefront of innovations in packaging, be it bag-in-box or other formats. I think cans are a very nice addition to that we will continue with as Anora, including as you can see from our partners. Now we move to the former Arcus Spirits. Here we see that reported net sales again versus the very strong base declined by 3% and in constant currencies by a bit more than or around 6%. Here again, you know, we should note that the comparison to Q4 is particularly tough. You know, we are seeing shifts of volume back.

We are also, as with Altia's Scandinavia segment, seeing the impact of the divestments of the brand. It all came here on the spirit side, like on the Altia side, it mostly came in the Scandinavia segment. That said, you know, in Sweden and Finland, we also saw some impact of partner portfolio changes, decreasing sales. On the positive side, in Denmark, development was very solid. There was a more normal year and with more aquavit consumption than we saw last year. The recovery of travel retail, it also continued.

When you look at the comparable EBITDA, it decreased a bit due to a lower sales volume and then driven by the market development also then the partner portfolio losses and last but not least, the brand divestment. You know, I should add also here that we also like on wine invested in marketing when we again had the possibility. Now, for spirits, there are two unique launches that we wanna highlight here, and one is an addition under the Norwegian whisky brand Gjoleid. This is something we've been working on since 2010.

This one, Mesterens Utvalgte, it's showcasing the important processes that are essential to creating a savory whiskey flavor. This innovation, you know, it includes experimentation with the temperature, various types of barrels, and it provides, you know, whiskey with a unique flavor without the decades of maturation that would otherwise be needed. The other example here is on the Braastad Cognac Blend, Braastad Skiflygeren. It's only 2022 numbered bottles that are available to celebrate the ski flying World Championships. The average age of the content is 65 years.

This one is near and dear to my heart as a former ski jumper myself, although my jumps were a bit shorter than the ones we'll see this weekend. To end the business review part, we'll have a look at the Logistics segment. Logistics segment, you know, the distributed volume was down, but the reported net sales in euros was up, but in constant currencies only slightly up at 2%, you know, with price adjustments and channel mix contributing and offsetting the volume decline. The comparable EBITDA was negative like it was last year, but slightly less negative.

I mean, we have talked about corona impacts and how for us especially in Norway they have had typically a positive impact due to the higher volume. On the logistics side in our Vectura business the very high volume way above the built capacity of the logistics facility has meant that there has been a need for you know a high level of additional cost weekend work night work to get the volume delivered as best as possible during this very high season period of Q4. With that, we move on to the financials.

In this section, I'll give an update on the barley situation and also the key figures, and I'll discuss the dividend and the guidance. With that, with the barley, many of you know it's a key raw material. We use it to produce obviously ethanol for our beverages and also technical purposes. We also sell it. You know, it's a business for us where we sell the side streams, you know, in this form of starch and raw feed material. You know, you can see from the chart that the cost of barley has reached historically high level. Many reasons for that.

I mean, it's the main reason obviously is the harvest in Finland and also future expectations. Since year-end, the average price was in 2021 on average 34% higher than in 2020. In Q4 the increase was 74%. Since year-end, unfortunately this price has continued to increase with the latest quote, as you can see on the chart, at EUR 360 per ton. Now, I mean, we do have some tools to mitigate this cost push and can pass on the cost increases in the form of price increases, but not fully. As a mitigating action, we've lowered the running speed at the distillery.

As a result, as Pekka mentioned, the consumption of grain was below last year's level and totaled 209 million kilos. I should mention here as well, you know, that the pricing cycle of grain is normally dependent on the volume quality of the new crop. I mean, a bit early to tell about that because it happens in August, September. On top of that, there are additional uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine. Those are related to the global grain market. As you know, Ukraine is a large producer and exporter of barley, and both Russia and Ukraine obviously are sort of the biggest, or among the biggest wheat producers and exporters in the world.

We are seeing as a result of that strong pressure on prices and, you know, right now we can't make long-term forecasts, but we are monitoring the situation closely. With that, you know, we move to the actual key figures. Here, you know, I won't spend too much time on this chart because again, it's a very difficult comparison due to the fact that we're consolidating the former Arcus as of September 1st, and then the full year figures, they only include four months. I think that we move to the next slide. With the balance sheet key figures, again, here, difficult to compare.

I think one key measure is the reported net debt over comparable EBITDA. Here, again, it's important to emphasize, one, that the big change then is due to the Arcus consolidation. And second, that in some sense, that 1.8 figure is a bit misleading when you include the full 12 months of comparable EBITDA also for the former Arcus part, you are at 1.2 for 2021. So still a low level, although not as low as the exceptionally low level for Altia at the end of last year. With that, we move to the next slide, which has the pro forma key figures. Here I think we've talked through most of this.

I think what is particularly interesting to look at here is we have now 2019, 2020, 2021 figures for net sales and for comparable EBITDA. Here they are, you know, comparable, so we can see the trend. I think that what's important to see, it goes to what Pekka talked about the market volumes in both 2020 and still in 2021 being at exceptionally high levels due to COVID. We see that that is reflected also in our figures. In our net sales, you know, EUR 629 and then versus EUR 665 in 2021.

In particular, right, with the channel mix being favorable to us in terms of the profitability levels, you see 80.7% in 2019, and that is what we consider to be the base or normal level versus the 98.3% in 2020 and the 101% as we talked about for 2021. I think that this, you know, of course, a lot of hard work has gone into achieving those results, especially our employees working in production logistics to simply deliver those very high demanded volumes has been a fantastic effort during COVID times. I think we also need to admit that that has influenced our result positively.

As the markets normalize, demand normalizes, we need to realize that. We'll come to the guidance, but a big part of the explanation for that is that we are returning to a normal also in our comparable EBITDA, which as you can see, was around, you know, a bit, north of EUR 80 million in 2019. Very good. Moving on to the dividend. Here as Pekka mentioned, the board is suggesting a dividend of EUR 0.45 per share. This is in line with the former Altia's dividend policy to pay 60% or more of the result for the period. Payout ratio is 68%.

It's even a bit more if you look at the pro forma figures, I think 71% and an effective dividend yield that's at 4.1%, so quite favorable levels. We should mention here, obviously, Anora's financial targets, including dividend policy, they will be updated once we finish our strategy process, which has only just started but will be done before the summer and then communicated after the summer. For now, I think, you know, we're paying a dividend that is quite good. Obviously, that's the decision of the Annual General Meeting on May 11th. Yes, moving on to the next slide around the outlook.

Here as you can see, we've guided now on a level of EUR 75 million-EUR 85 million. To a large extent, you could say that this corresponds to volume demand at the pre-pandemic level, right? I mentioned that we were a bit higher than we were at EUR 80.7 million in 2019. It also takes into account that we have an annual impact of EUR 4.6 million of those divested brands, you know, the full impact of which obviously we'll see in 2022. Obviously, you know, we are realizing synergies thanks to the merger, but the synergies, they come in gradually versus the divestment impact which was immediate.

Then on top of that, you have all the input costs, right, which are expected to be at a very high level. We mentioned that, we mentioned the barley, we mentioned other raw and packing materials. There are, you know, although this all of this is very uncertain at the moment, but the situation in Ukraine is also reinforcing that plus adding volatility to foreign exchange. With all of that's the reason that we are guiding in this range. Again, I think that not only comparing to the result of the current year but also the baseline of 2019, which is a more normal year pre-COVID. I guess with that, I'm handing back to Pekka.

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Thank you, Sigmund. I will have my closing remarks on integration and sustainability, and then we go to Q&A. Let's start with an update on integration and synergies. In Q4, we successfully completed the restructuring of our organization, and we're now operating according to our new operating model. Integration work has continued, as I said earlier, according to plan, and we have several ongoing initiatives. In Wines, we build and expand on the entrepreneurial model that has worked very well for Arcus, for former Arcus and provides the best possible service and maximizes business opportunities for our partners in the monopoly markets.

In Spirits, we have established strong innovation, product development, marketing, and sales organizations which support the growth of our brands in the three independent commercial units in the monopoly markets. Our international part of spirits is in place as well, with the aim of creating sales growth in Denmark, Baltics, duty-free and exports markets. In Industrial, we're running projects to insource third-party logistics operations in Norway, Finland and Sweden, and expect to close in phases during 2022. To date, run rate of realized cost synergies was at EUR 5.1 million. A few words on sustainability. We will publish our sustainability report as part of the annual report right after Easter. Here are just a few highlights. We reached a nearly 100% recycling and recovery in the Koskenkorva, Rajamäki, and Gelleråsen plant.

A great achievement and proof of our circular economic thinking. I mentioned earlier that we want to take an active role in a no/low category. Here's a good KPI. 16% of former Altia's product portfolio was no/low alcoholic drinks. At Rajamäki we have made changes in recipes by which we were able to reduce the amount of sugar by 5%. We're leading the way in developing sustainable and recyclable packaging. Today 30% of entire Anora's beverage packaging was made from PET plastic. Gelleråsen achieved an important milestone as the final approval for PET bottle formats was received and are ready for the Nordic-wide recycling deposit system. Work safety is something that we take extremely seriously and have high on our agenda.

We work continuously to improve our processes and routines, and actively, through, for example, communications, promote a safety culture at our plants. This work has given results with the number of accidents decreasing, both at former Altia and Arcus. At the Gelleråsen plant, there were no injuries reported last year. This concludes our presentation, and we are ready for your questions.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

All right. Thank you, Pekka and Sigmund. We have received already good questions on the chat. Please keep on sending those and we will take them then later on. Let's start with the first one from Mika Häkkinen. There are two questions there. How do you see the raw material prices develop during the year? How do you assess possible supply chain hiccups affect your business?

Sigmund Toth
CFO, Anora

Yeah, I can take that maybe on the raw material prices. Well, I mean, I think it's difficult to assess now. We have already, as we outlined, we have seen and expect to see pretty high increases in raw materials, and we have taken that into account in our guidance. I think as everyone can see with the current situation in Ukraine, a lot of dependencies that I think were not visible, I think to people even operating in the business emerge and that can drive further increases.

I would say that the inflationary pressures which were there, we expect them to continue, but it's something that we are monitoring really sort of day by day. That goes for the possible supply chain hiccups as well. I mean, I think that it's difficult to say that this is a good thing, but I think I would like to extend a huge thanks to our people who are working in supply chain in procurement and also to the suppliers that they are working with because we've been through, I think, quite tough times under COVID handling.

You know, the huge increases in volume and the supply chain problems that have already been there, and I think that they will continue to be there. I, you know, I think that this is not a guarantee, but what we can say is that I think those things have been handled very successfully during COVID. I think that we will try to reapply the same methodology of collaborating very closely with our suppliers to try to mitigate any impacts which are occurring and using, you know, any creativity that we have to find good solutions to problems that I'm sure will arise.

So far, I mean, during COVID, I think that on the whole, we can say that, you know, for the most part we did manage to not have the big underlying problems impact our business in a significant way, and I hope that we can manage that also in the current situation.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

All right. Let's continue on the price increases. We have a question from Maria Wikström about that and about first of all commenting that input costs are on the rise and impacting your profits. You guide for full year 2022 Adjusted EBITDA down 20% year-on-year pro forma. How have you taken price increases into account, and when do you expect to be able to raise prices next time? A follow-up on this one is why there is not a bigger impact of price increases on profits?

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Let me start with the price increases first. In monopolies, you have basically two opportunities to increase prices. One in springtime and then one in the fall time, and then also one in between in Norway. We just taken the price increases, you know, during Q1 and in Finland will happen in beginning of April. Those price increases were done as usual, looking at the opportunities, but obviously also, you know, based on the cost increases that we saw during, you know, the fall of last year. We know that, you know, the pricing, prices have increased across all input costs since then in a significant way.

That's for beverage monopolies with, you know, travel retail, basically one opportunity a year, which we have already taken. In industrial side, and there I think there's a question later on that. On the industrial side, there is a large part of the price changes go through automatically, but for starch and for ethanol, technical ethanol and ethanol products, it's more, you know, negotiation-based, once or twice a year. One thing that I would like to mention here when we compare and talk about 20% performance changes.

All along, you know, from the beginning of when we launched our merger plans, we've said that the COVID times, these are unusual times for us. The monopoly volumes were extraordinarily high. Like we saw earlier, the Norwegian monopoly volumes grew by almost 50%. We've all along said that the right comparison for Anora this year is 2019. That's more a normal situation with a normal channel mix. Obviously, the input cost increases are something which is totally unusual. I think the right basis to compare our performance is more 2019 than 2021 or 2020.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

All right. Thank you. Let's take here Maria's second question. I guess you answered her third question, but the second question is about demand. How do you expect the demand developing for you if we hit an economic downturn? Is there a difference for liquor, spirits or wine volumes?

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Well, I think beverages, alcoholic beverages and us are considered as quite a resilient industry overall. In economic downturn, you normally see a bit less sales of premium products. Champagne, I think is a good example. You know, for our part, I think we are quite well-positioned. We have a very strong portfolio of brands across all price segments, both in wine and in spirits. To your question, Maria, I would say probably, you know, more trending towards lower price segments from the premium super premium categories.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

All right. We have a few questions from Mika Rautiainen. Let's take the first one. Do you think your overall profitability level is satisfactory relative to your market position, which is pretty dominant in many segments?

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Well, I think I partly answered that question. I think what's the right comparison? I'd rather compare us now, you know, to another normal year, which is 2019. When it comes to our financial ambitions, we'll come back to those with our strategy work, which we will present after the summer in our Capital Markets Day.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

All right. Following on that, why do you think some of your direct and indirect competitors can absorb better rising costs than Anora in Nordic alcohol markets and report better overall operating margins? Reference companies are mentioned Royal Unibrew, Olvi, Viva Wine Group.

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Well, maybe I don't want to comment on any specific companies. I would say our ability to absorb cost increases is very good in beverages, you know, with monopolies on trade, travel retail and exports as well. I would say we are quite in normal position with that. I think, you know, maybe one specific for us is the Industrial segment, which I think there we have a bit more exposure towards raw material price increases as we're selling more like a commodity type product. That could be one difference. But in terms of beverages businesses, w e have strong brands, strong position in our operating markets and a good opportunity to push the price increases through to our prices.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

All right. We have a question to Sigmund from Mika Rautiainen also. Do you think that Anora's free cash flow in long term is higher than net profit due to higher depreciation versus normal CapEx, which have been the case past? Is that reflected to new dividend policy?

Sigmund Toth
CFO, Anora

Well, let me start by saying that we don't have yet a new dividend policy, right? We are paying this dividend, which is in line with the former Altia's dividend policy, and we will come back with a new dividend policy as part of the financial targets that we will set once we've finished the strategy process that we have just in the beginning of. I think that at that point, you know, we'll also come back to this point. I think this has definitely been the case in the past. I think that, you know, typically there is a limit to all those things. We want to invest in our business, and it's normal that we renew the equipment.

It has been the case, definitely was the case in the ex-Arcus side that there was quite new equipment for a while. As that equipment ages and there's changes in consumer demands, new forms of packaging, for example, that you have to invest to, I think at some point it's expected that depreciation or investments, I should say, go back to a level that's similar to depreciation. I don't think that's for the immediate future, but I think we'll have to come back to what time perspective we are looking at when we come with our new financial targets.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

Thank you. There's a question from Joni Sandvall about monopoly volumes. If monopoly sales volumes are expected to return to 2019 levels, how is your view on on-trade travel retail and export volumes in comparison to 2019 levels?

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

On-trade, I would expect bouncing back close to normal levels to 2019. On travel retail, I would expect a slightly kind of gradual recovery, but still definitely growth versus last year. Exports, Russia, Ukraine, they were the two of the fastest growing markets that we had in our exports. We just obviously need to rethink, you know, on export side. That will be slightly different than we anticipated in the beginning of the year.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

Thank you. We have a question from Michael Wiese about integration costs, and I will give this to Sigmund. You mentioned post-closing integration costs of EUR 7 million-EUR 9 million for 2021, 2022. How much of that is forecast for 2022, and are these costs included in the 2022 EBITDA guidance?

Sigmund Toth
CFO, Anora

I think first point here is that the EBITDA guidance is about comparable EBITDA, right? So there we are excluding the integration costs, so you can see them on items affecting comparability. Quite clearly, we are not going to integrate, you know, on a continuing basis. So we think that for the financial performance to be legible and comparable from year to year, we are not including those integration costs. So that's something that you would add. If you're doing your cash flow forecast, you would have to add those costs.

I would say that maybe more than definitely more than half of those integration costs would come in in 2022 as we are doing very big projects, as Pekka mentioned, on logistics in this year.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

Well, thank you. Following the last question from Joni Sandvall to Sigmund Toth as well. How much receivables do you have in Russia and Ukraine, or have these sales made with prepayments?

Sigmund Toth
CFO, Anora

Well, I would say the amounts are non-material at the group level. So obviously this is something that we are monitoring very, very closely with the respective distributors. The amounts in question are not really material ones at the group level.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

Okay. Thank you. Now we have gone through all the questions that we have received in chat. Looking at time, I think I will hand over. Sorry, I missed the euro amount of integration costs, EUR 7 million-EUR 9 million for 2021, 2022. I will hand over now to Pekka for the closing.

Pekka Tennilä
CEO, Anora

Thank you for all the great questions. Recap of last year, we had a very strong full-year results. Q1 that was already impacted by lower monopoly sales and volumes and increasing, heavily increasing input costs. Board proposes a dividend of 45. AGM will be held on 11th of May. In 2022, we expect EBITDA to be in the range of EUR 75 million-EUR 85 million with three clear impacts, market volumes going back to normal, significant uncertainties in the operating environment, and increasing input costs. Now back to Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm for final remarks.

Tua Stenius-Örnhjelm
Investor Relations, Anora

Okay. Thanks, Pekka Tennilä and Sigmund Toth for your presentation, and thank you to you all for very good questions and active participation. This will now conclude our presentation, and the next thing you can be looking for is to read our annual report, which we are going to publish during Week 16. That's right after Easter. With this, we are ready, and I wish you all a very good rest of the day. Bye.

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