Hello, good afternoon. It's two o'clock, so let's start. My name is Milena Hæggström. I'm the head of IR here at Anora, and this is the Anora Q4 pre-silent call. In today's call, we have our CFO, Sigmund Toth, discussing the recent events and going through the Q&A. You can also start to post questions already during the presentation or the introduction on the chat. Now, we kindly ask you to mute your microphones, and we will be recording this presentation that will be posted on our website after the call. Now, Sigmund, please go ahead.
Hello, everyone. Welcome to this call. And thank you for attending. I will keep my introductory remarks quite brief at this time, and we'll leave time for Q&A, although, of course, the level of detail that we can go into at this time is quite limited. So in terms of recent developments, we...
I think that it is more of the same as what we have seen and then communicated previously, is that, as you know, we now have some quite simple priorities for our efforts at this time, and they are related to improving the profitability of our business, which, as you know, due to several factors, such as foreign exchange, high input prices, and other factors have had decreased during the first three quarters of the year.
And then in September and October, we have taken in our key monopoly markets at the first available time quite significant price increases to increase the gross margin or to reestablish gross margin levels from the lower base. And this is one of our priorities. And the second priority is related then to reducing net debt through the reduction of working capital, and in particular inventory. And then the period that has been behind us is, of course, the biggest season of the year for us, with the Christmas season.
This is where we make, you know, by far the highest proportion of our sales of any quarter. It's where we are also the most profitable, given that the higher sales lead to a higher margin with our relatively fixed operating costs. And it's also then the opportunity with the big sell-out really to make inroads in the reduction of inventory by then limiting purchases and production at the time when the sales are high.
And I would say that entering, you know, the Q4, the big question mark was how the top line and our market share would react to these quite significant price increases that we had taken. Of course, many of our competitors are also in a similar situation as we are, but still, we were taking quite significant price increases. And also the economic climate in general is, as you know, quite challenging for consumers, including here in the Nordics. So the question was, would sales in general, in our key markets, and the monopolies hold up?
And how would our performance relative to our competitors be in those segments? So, speaking in broad terms, I would say that in terms of improving our gross margins, the progress has been as expected, and it has been a significant improvement versus the run rates of previous quarters, definitely relative to the year-over-year performance. So that is one point. Second point, I would say that on the inventory and working capital reduction, there also the progress has been significant over the last quarter, thanks to more focus on sales and operations planning and tighter control of the inventory.
So that has also progressed as planned. And then in terms of the sales or the relative performance, this is actually still a bit early to tell because there are several monopolies now. Alko just released their overall sales for Finland, I think just yesterday. Systembolaget, we don't even—we don't have yet, and nor do I think that actually we have data for Vinmonopolet yet for December. So it's a bit difficult to tell what was the overall market picture.
I would say, and then this you have seen also from our communication related to our, to our profit warning, that we were seeing in terms of our shipments to the monopoly and also in terms of what figures are available from the monopolies or in the communication from them, that this was not only related to our performance, but also to some softness in the monopoly sales to consumers. I would say that actually that softness is the most pronounced in Norway.
Maybe somewhat surprisingly, because in terms of the macroeconomic figures, I would say that for consumers, the situation is probably objectively speaking but in terms of unemployment and other factors better than it is in, for example, Sweden and in Finland. Although in Norway, they have been quite a few interest rate hikes due to the weakness of the NOK and Norwegian consumers have a lot of mortgage debt. So maybe they are feeling the pinch in terms of their household budgets and reducing somewhat the spend, including on our categories.
There is certainly, in all of our markets, a rather broad trend towards down trading. So people still buy the products in the categories in which we compete, but quite systematically, I think across markets, what we have seen in the monopoly data and in our own sales, for that matter, is quite significant down trading, so to less expensive, more value for money products. So, still a bit early to tell what was the exact monopoly performance and what was our relative performance within that, but I would have to say that it is a, for our, from our point of view, a mixed picture.
Some things I think we can already say were somewhat soft. Again, as I mentioned, Norway, and within that, aquavits in Norway, I mean, as always, it has been a very positive period for us in absolute terms, in terms of our sales, and people have kept buying aquavit, but relative to prior year and to our ambitions, somewhat on the soft side.
And then if we are to mention positives in terms of the sales, then the Blossa, which, as you know, is a very, very big seasonal product in, especially in Sweden, but also to some extent, in Finland and with strong growth in Norway and Denmark, as you could say "export markets", for that product. The performance of Blossa, in spite of a higher input prices and higher consumer prices from our side to cover for that, has been very, very strong, especially in the month of December, after a somewhat softer November.
So that I would say is the big picture, and we are still working on our financials, so I will not go into more details now, but I can say that our focus and our priority on reestablishing the profitability through increased gross margins, and we've had price changes now in Norway as of January first as well, and then more to come in Sweden as of the first of March. We are looking to continue that improvement and have realized quite a bit already in the last quarter of the year.
We have also then been, as you know, from previous communications, being restricted with our marketing spending, as, as part of that EUR 6 million savings plan, which, at least based on current knowledge of the closing, seems to have come in, in line with the, in line with the plan. So we have tried to compensate also for the, for the loss in profitability through reduced operating expenses, and then in particular, in particular, marketing. And then, while at the same time, selectively focusing on, on, on future growth products, as, as you know, bag-in-boxes below 200 SEK in, in, in Sweden, and, and Koskenkorva as a, as a, a hero brand on, on, on spirits, which has seen strong growth internationally.
So, that's one focus, reestablishing profitability, and the second one is to improve cash flow by decreasing working capital. And as I said, Q4, based on the currently available figures, seems to have been, you know, there have been some steps in the right direction. And then we are continuing on those efforts in the quarters to come. There are, as we announced previously, organizational change program ongoing, both in terms of center of excellence, so the, the...
Our manufacturing footprint, and then also in terms of the organizations on the commercial side, both wine and spirits, that both aim to organize in a way that allows for growth, but at the same time is also estimated to bring cost savings. And I would say that both of those programs are still work in progress, and for the commercial program, still object of negotiations with the unions and employees. But we are making progress, and I would say good progress according to plan on both of those programs. So I would say that those are my sort of brief remarks, and then I open the floor for questions.
Yes. Thank you, Sigmund. Yes, so let's open up for questions. If you have a question, please raise a hand to mark that. Also, we have the first question from the chat, so maybe we will start with that. It's coming from Joni Sandvall: "What level of price increases are you targeting in next pricing windows?
The question, what level of price increase? I can't say that, then I will go to jail from the competition authorities. So that I can't communicate on at that level of accuracy, although the question is a very sharp one. I think that on a broad level, what I can say is that, you know, input prices now seem to have stabilized or in some cases, you know, even come down. The SEK and everyone Swedish on the call, please excuse my use of the Banana Republic currency sort of lingo. But you know, it seems to have found some strength, and the same with the NOK.
So there are some of the elements, let's say, that have been, you know, have been giving us the trouble that have sort of abated. So... And we have done some efforts in the past and to reestablish, you know, gross margin levels. And that, you know, I mean, I'm not saying that price increases are not needed because they may well be. In Norway, they were, for example, if nothing else, due to the regular inflation adjustment of alcohol taxes. But let's say that maybe, on the whole, the factors driving price increases, at least currently, they seem to be less drastic than they were only a few months ago. So I don't think I can say anything more precise than that.
Yes, thank you. And then a follow-on question from Joni Sandvall. "You mentioned a significantly improved inventory and working capital. When do you expect to reach normalized inventory levels?
Very, very good, very good question, Joni. I mean, I would say that we are getting close to the normalized inventory levels, already. And then I think that it's also a fair question, whether we sort of know exactly what is the new normal in terms of our inventory levels. I think that now we have done a big part of the normalization, so to kind of take out the excess inventory that came in during these logistical disturbances last year. And now, I mean, I wouldn't say that we are kind of like back to normal now, and now it's only sort of incremental improvements.
But to a little bit, it is there that now we have, you know, strengthened our sales and operations planning process. We have done this effort of reducing the inventory levels. And now, of course, you know, we still want to do continuous improvement, and. But it's right now maybe a bit hard to say exactly what is the normalized inventory level. I would say quite soon. Now, I mean, I should point out that, as you know, of course, due to seasonal reasons during Q1, Q2, inventory then increases, but so I'm always talking about, you know, relative levels to where it was last year.
But, I mean, I would say that we are sort of almost there, and then, you know, like with everything, we are not happy with the current levels. But, you know, we want to now, with the newly implemented processes, you know, continue this continuous improvement journey.
Thank you. And then, we have a question from Rauli Juva. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks. Hi, Rauli from Inderes here. Just wanted to kind of confirm that when I listened to your comments, it seems that there wasn't any really dramatic changes during the Q4 when- to compare to what we have seen-
Hello, Rauli. Do you have a question?
Hi! Yes. Can you hear me?
You have a hand raised at least, so...
I can hear him.
You can? Okay.
Okay. Yes.
Sorry, go ahead, Rauli. I can, I can hear you.
Thank you.
I think that Milena couldn't, but I can hear you. Go ahead.
Great. Great. Hopefully, hopefully, the others will again as well. Yeah, so I was just, just wondering, like, like, I said that your comments pointed to that, that there were no significant changes during the Q4, yet your guidance change before Christmas was fairly big in terms of euros. So even though I, I think it was acknowledged that the high end looked pretty, pretty, kind of unreachable after Q3, can you a bit explain that this is the right interpretation, and, and why did you maintain that guidance then, then in the Q3 report?
Yeah, I think that there is no, you know, simplest or easy answer to this. I mean, you know, when you guide with a range, you guide with a range, and maybe that is a learning for us that we should have a more dynamic updating of the upper or lower ends of our-
Mm-hmm
... of our guidance. So that's, I mean, I think I note as an improvement point for ourselves. But other than that, you know, as long as our forecasting is within our range, then it is within our range, right? And
Yeah.
So that's just sort of the way that it is. And then indeed, as you say, there were this—I mean, with our business, what is a bit complicated, of course, is that the importance of November and December is so big.
Mm-mm.
And then, what then is a further complication is that you cannot, even though November typically is actually the biggest month in terms of our shipments in, you cannot, well, to use an analogy from our business, pop the Champagne bottle already at the end of November, because they can be quite significant and material shifts in both directions. You know, due to how days fall in November and December. To give you one specific example, I don't think I'm giving away some sort of trade secret now, I mean, Blossa, for example, you know, is a product where the placement of the First of Advent, you know-
Mm.
that is the key sort of consumer, consumer occasion.
Yeah.
or around that timing. So when it came a bit later, as it did this year-
Mm.
sales are shifted to December rather than
Mm.
in November, right?
Mm-mm.
And it's a bit like that on many categories, and sometimes these things sort of can be known. But of course, you know, let's say that it's on the soft side, you cannot really know whether that is a real thing or it's because, you know, you're offloading. And on the same side, you know, if it's very good in November, you cannot... Yeah, again, you cannot know, did you just load the trade? And, and,
Yeah.
I mean, in some cases, you know, but even with the monopolies, it's not so easy. That's a bit the trick for us. And then, obviously, very high levels of profitability and high margin products also in the December timeframe or November, December. So that's what makes things, you know, a little bit tricky for us.
Sure. And did I understand you right, that it was mostly the somewhat weaker volume development that was the-
Yeah
kind of negative factor.
Yes
Compared to your earlier guidance? Yeah.
Correct.
Okay. Yeah, that's, that's all for me. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. And, then we have, follow-on question from Joni Sandvall. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Maybe I go also on live then, when we have the opportunity. Yeah, you mentioned actually in the profit warning that,
Mm
... there was, this wine segment,
Mm
profitability. Can you give any, any comments related to Globus Wine? We know that the profitability has been below your initial thoughts.
Yeah.
So, how this has evolved now during the Q4?
Well, I would say not to our satisfaction for the time being. There are some positive signs in terms of the underlying facts, but I would have to say that on the whole, the level and speed of progress is still not satisfactory. I think you know, we can sort of state it like that without going into more details at this time. I think that this is something that we will have to come back to, you know, in our report and maybe also to give some perspective when we come to sort of next year.
But, you know, I mean, it's not all negative. There are positives there as well. But I would say that in terms of the speed and the magnitude of the improvement, it's still behind our expectations.
Yeah. Thanks. That's clear. Then, how about with the new partner deals? Have you been able to make any, or is there any changes with the current deals that you are running?
No, I would say that. You know, in the big scheme of things, I mean, we have made some new partner agreements, but I wouldn't say that there is anything material that has happened on the partner side, neither on the positive nor on the negative side. And again, you know, I can remind you, you know, of what our CEO, Jacek, he said in the, I think it was in the quarterly call, is that of course, you know, we now focus on the partners, on those that are willing to enable, you know, to collaboratively ensure that there is profitable growth, for both parties, right? And sometimes that's simply not possible for one reason or another, right?
The cake is somehow not big enough or there is no room for let's call it improvement. And then, you know, maybe our focus is to be selective in the new partners that we onboard, you know, to really make sure that it's not only boosting our sales, but also boosting our bottom line.
Yeah. Thanks. My last question from me about the barley prices. We know that the price level has stabilized to-
Yeah.
-let's say, on a high level in a long term, but low level in near term. So, is this now fully visible in Q1, the price level also in the beverage business, or how should we think this?
It should be visible in Q1. Now, I don't think that we have any more of these sort of delays. So now, it's sort of it has worked its way through our system. Yeah.
Okay. And the availability has been okay, and the quality of the barley?
Yes, yes. I mean, as you know, Finnish barley is the best in the world by far, right? At least we think so, and it makes great vodka. So yes, there hasn't been any issues with that, and we keep working on making it more sustainable as well.
Okay, thanks. That's all from me.
Thank you. And do we have any more questions? Please raise your hand in case you do, or post them on the chat. At least currently, it looks like we don't have any more questions. So thank you, Sigmund, and thank you everyone online today for joining. And the next event we have is on the fourteenth of February. The Q4 financial statements release will be published then. So see you then. Thank you.