Okay, it's 11:00 A.M., so, good morning, and a warm welcome to the presentation of Anora's Q3 results. I'm Milena Hæggström, Head of Investor Relations here at Anora. And today, we also have our CEO, Jacek Pastuszka, and our CFO, Sigmund Toth, on the line. We will start shortly with the presentations. Jacek will go through the business update, followed by Sigmund's review on the financials. And after the presentations, we start with the Q&A. We look forward to many questions from you, and you can start sending them through the chat already during the presentations. And as usual, please, we ask you to mute your microphones and note that we are recording this presentation, and the on-demand version will be published on our website at anora.com. And with this, Jacek, please go ahead, with a couple of words of introduction.
Thank you very much. I hope we can clearly... you can hear me well. Very good morning to everybody on the call. It's my first call with this audience as the Anora CEO, so as you would guess, I'm a bit nervous, but I trust we will manage to jointly go through this important exercise. I think I owe you a bit of introduction about myself. I will not spend too much time on this because it's less relevant probably than the actual business performance, but still, I want to make a bit of a personal introduction to this important team. I'm 11th day on the job, but obviously, I'm much longer in the business. I have more than 30 years of experience in managing business operations across multiple companies and multiple geographies.
I'm originally Polish, but I have been working most of my career internationally. I worked in the U.S., in the U.K., in Norway, in Denmark, in Russia, and obviously in Poland for a period of time. I have commercial background, so brand building, plus sales execution is my primary area of concern. Although, for more than half of my career, I was in general management position. I managed four companies in three different markets, in two industries, and this is my fifth one. Although, this is what makes this one special, is that it is the first listed company that I'm managing, so I obviously have a bit to learn in this respect.
My most relevant experience, which I can see was already noticed because somebody called me an ex-Carlsberg guy, is indeed my Carlsberg tenure. I was 12 years with Carlsberg. Six of these years were on the executive committee of Carlsberg as part of the team of Cees 't Hart, who was turning around Carlsberg business over the last six years. And during this time, I was the Executive Vice President for Western Europe, which is probably the most relevant thing here, because at that time, I was in charge of all of the Nordic markets, and before that, I was also in charge of Eastern Europe, operating out of St. Petersburg in Russia.
What may be also relevant for this job is that I was a CEO of Ringnes in Norway between 2011 and 2014, so I more or less know the context of the Norwegian or Nordic markets for that matter. As I said, it's my eleventh day on the job, but I would be very happy to answer any questions that are directed to me. I may not have all the answers to all the questions, but if I don't have them, I know how to find them and provide to you later. So with this, I think we can move to a business update. Can we switch the slides? Yes, thank you very much.
All I can say at this stage about the Q3 performance is that it is a bit of continuation of the trend that we have seen on a year-to-date basis. I would say that this number is looking at them objectively with an outside-in perspective. I think these numbers are slightly better than the Q2 numbers. But we have to admit that this is more of a continuation of the trend we have seen on a year to date basis, which is most definitely not a compliment. We started seeing some ramp up in our mitigation plans, some impact from pricing, some impact from cost efficiency measures, and we also had a bit of relief on the raw materials and input prices.
Definitely, it's very visible already now that more is needed to stabilize our financial performance, improve profitability, and get on the right track, and to deliver a type of turnarounds that we can all be proud of. More is needed. You have seen this morning that we have announced another set of measures to adjust our cost base to the workload that we expecting to be ahead of us. I will get to this subject later in the presentation, and we'll provide, together with Sigmund, a bit more detail on the subject. To summarize, more is needed to cover for the profit deficit that we face in our results.
To be more specific about the numbers, and I will focus on comparable EBITDA and net sales, obviously, because there are other factors, especially the large divestiture, that influence other lines, and I will leave the pleasure of discussing this to Sigmund. On net revenue side, we see a negative quarter, on a year-to-date basis, we are still positive, but for the quarter, we are minus 5%. We need to keep in mind that we have cycled the full 12, 4 quarters, 12 months with Globus now. So we are comparing ourselves to the proper like for like now, with Globus in the historical numbers.
Globus actually, in case you were to ask about it, was performing well in the net sales performance, so it is the other parts of the business, especially the wine, the partner wine in Sweden and partly Norway, that depressed this, the net revenue. On the comparable EBITDA, the EUR 3.2 million below 14% or 13-something% below last year, the third quarter of last year, which is definitely not a good performance. The impact from wine segment only is EUR 6.7 million, so we have managed to mitigate half of this through the actions on the other parts of the business, which, as I said before, is still not adequate.
We will get to the wine performance in a second, but it's not hard to see that this is what is burning a hole in our pockets, so to speak. The partner wine, especially partner wine in Sweden, is our biggest headache now, both operationally but also from the financial point of view. I will get later in our wine discussion to the actions we are taking to correct it over time, rather than spending another presentation on discussing the reasons for it, because I believe we all more or less know the reasons behind it. The highlights of this quarter were obviously a well-structured and well-executed Larsen divestiture. Again, Sigmund will show us more detail on the impact it has.
Gradual impact from price increases that were introduced, the large ones were introduced in September, so we will gradually see the impact from these increases going forward. And also part of the cost cuts was already executed, and there is more in the pipeline because we quite clearly see that more is needed, both to adjust our structure and cost structure also to the workload or the priorities that we have, but also to actively manage profitability. So that much on the overall Q3 results. Let's go to the segments, because I would like to provide more detail on the segment performance. Can we switch the slide, please? Yes, thank you very much. 8% decrease in net revenue.
It is obviously a headache to see this loss revenue, which is driven also by translation and the country mix that we have, and the impact of currencies, obviously. But the real headache that we have is obviously the EBITDA performance. We lost three-fourths of our EBITDA quarter-over-quarter compared to last year. So it's not a small number, and it's a massive hit on the profitability of this part of the business. As I said before, the reasons are quite well known, so I will not bother you repeating them again. It is obviously the partner business that is where we are struggling. But three-fourths of this issue is Sweden. The remaining part is Norway.
Our own brands and local currencies, in local currencies, partner wine in local currencies, this is performing actually quite well. But the impact from these big factors, especially related to currency and the loss of partners in Sweden, is making the gap that we have to cover so big that we struggle with covering it. Obviously, there is a translation and transactional elements to the currency. In fact, around one third is translation, around two third is transaction. So paying a bit more attention to the transactional part of it is something that we need to do even more intensely than before. In terms of the mitigation plan, I would highlight three things going forward. The first one is obviously price increases.
We have, I think, utilized the September window reasonably well, and we will see the impact gradually in the quarters to come. But it doesn't mean that this journey is over. We have another window opening in some of the markets only in January, in Norway, I believe it is, and in other markets gradually throughout the first half of the year. So, we need to use this pricing window as well in the monopolies to correct the situation pricing front even further. Then on cost savings, as you may have noticed, or if not, we'll provide more details throughout this call.
With wine or wine structure and wine business is part of this planned intervention into the organizational setup and operating model, and we'll get to it later. And then the last thing, which is a bit broader, but I think equally important, that we will more actively than so far manage the partner mix that we have. We want to increase the share of the partners who are eager to build value together with us through a combination of increased pricing, reduced or improved efficiencies, and jointly addressing the challenges related to currency devaluation. So we want to team up with the partners who want to support us in this value creation journey. That much on wine.
I'm sure there will be more questions, so I trust that together with Sigmund, we'll be able to address them. Can we switch to spirits? Yes, on spirits, now in relative terms, obviously, and I have to be careful how I position it, but in my view at least, again, taking an objective, I believe, still view, at Q3 numbers, in relative terms, it is a highlight of our performance in Q3. It's a good performance, strong performance, I would say. Yes, we have flat net sales, but in the markets where the monopoly business declines, we managed to increase our share within the monopoly segment.
At the same time, the headwinds that are severely impacting our wine business are more or less the same headwinds that the spirits have to deal with. So the actions they are taking we have taken in this area are quite similar. They are related to pricing and including efficiency and mix management. Mix management at all levels, so brands, channels, categories, partners. And we seem to be doing it better for better financial performance at least. Yes, we don't have this impact of lost partners, but still all other headwinds is something that the spirits organization has to deal with as well, and we do it quite well, I would say, I would say.
The big difference, obviously, that you would pick up on immediately is the different share of own or split or mix between own brands and the partner brands within the spirits business, where we have a little bit more control over destiny on many levels. And maybe this is the right point to talk about our stance or my thinking, at least on the partner business. Our discussions on the wine partners and the impact that this meltdown, especially in Sweden, has on our performance. It may create a wrong perception that our partner relations will be scrutinized aggressively.
Yes, as I said before, we'll be working hard to improve the mix, and our partner mix, the share of partners who are eager to support us with value creation on the wine side especially. But generally, partner business is a very important part of our overall business model and in our underlying performance. It's in our DNA to provide high level of service and support to our partners. We have something very unique to offer between the Nordic markets to global partners. We have a long history of collaboration with really large partners. As an example, we have now this big switch from Brown-Forman to Coca-Cola Hellenic on the Finlandia brand. After 18 years of collaborating, we are switching to another large partner.
So in our DNA, there is this belief that having strong mutually supportive relationship with partners is critically important for us, and we have good evidence that it works well for us. However, right now, right here in especially in our wine business in Sweden, we really struggle with this. Maybe in this context, it's worth mentioning also Globus. I know Globus is usually mentioned in these calls, in the context of surprises following the acquisition and some questions around the quality of due diligence. So, I had the pleasure of visiting the Globus business earlier this week as part of my onboarding.
I obviously we have to fix issues related to profitability and recover from a pitch from a ditch in which we found ourselves. But in terms of what Globus Wine business brings to overall Anora, these are only positives, I would say. They are injecting lots of energy, new thinking, a good understanding of the wine business, especially own wine brand-branded business, and also very good understanding of the grocery channel, which by definition may be missing or be underdeveloped in the monopoly markets. So the next picture on Globus, I just wanted to make sure that when we discuss the financial part, we don't forget about the positives behind this acquisition. It's just our job to make sure that they materialize.
The last point I would make here at the end of these two segments discussion is that we recognize the criticality of the fourth quarter. I noticed already comments which are absolutely correct, that by missing the consensus on EBITDA by around 10%, we're creating some sort of question mark around our ability to deliver on the guidance. We are, as you can see, reiterating the guidance, and it's based on our strong confidence that we have the right plans for the fourth quarter on the volume side, mostly around utilizing the seasonality of glögg, of Blossa obviously, and also aquavit. But it's very heavily dependent on volume. There is also heavy dependency on the fourth quarter.
Sigmund will make more comments about this, but I just wanted to highlight that we recognize the criticality of the fourth quarter and also the importance of the volume delivery in this fourth quarter. On the industrial, can we switch slide? I will not spend too much time. I will not pretend that I'm an expert on the industrial side of the business. Well, all I can see is that it is a stable and solid source of revenue, even if it comes at a lower level of marginality than the - Yes, very, very frequently. What I appreciate is this business, our ability to offset this fluctuations in net revenue at the gross profit or especially EBITDA level. And this is exactly what we can see in the third quarter.
We had quite a lot of headwind on the top line front, but we delivered according to expectations on the EBITDA. We have different levels, obviously, of pricing power across the three elements for externals. So starch, technical ethanol, and animal feed. But at least it's a decent mixture of categories and we are able to manage this mix effectively. So for this, that's it, I think, for now. Yes, I will have a bit of summary at the end. I will spend a little bit more time at the end talking about the adjustments to the operating model that we are planning, the reasons behind them, the impact that we should expect. I will be happy to address any questions that you may have.
With this, I would like to hand it over to Sigmund for more detail on the financial performance. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Jacek. So if we switch to the first slide, please. Before we dive into the financials, some words on the overall market development in our core markets, so in Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. What we see here as an overall picture is that the sales in the monopoly markets are continuing to decline slightly versus the same quarter last year. Although now we are getting to the point where the big impacts from normalization after COVID are starting to get into the numbers. So the declines are lower in percentage terms than they were for the same quarter last year compared to 2021.
In terms of the categories, what we can see is that spirits are declining somewhat more than wine. And as you know, over the longer term, the trend in our market has typically been that on the volume level, spirits have grown somewhat slower than wines have, although with a lot of variations between different categories within spirits.
And then in terms of the markets, the biggest declines came in Denmark, driven by spirits there, with wine somewhat of a less decline, and then Finland, and then Sweden and Norway, the declines were less significant. Another interesting thing, you know, to look at here is to compare to the pre-pandemic levels, so the same quarter in 2019 versus this latest one in 2023. And what we can see here is that Sweden now is almost, you know, at the levels, still slightly up versus the pre-pandemic level. Finland is below by 6%.
In Norway, it does seem for various reasons, you know, be it new shopping habits or other factors such as the relative weakness of the NOK even now versus the SEK that there's still more volume, significantly more, I mean, 15% almost, more sold at the monopoly in Norway in Q3 2023 compared to the same quarter in 2019. So for Anora, of course we are. We aim to be present, you know, everywhere in all of these markets.
But all other things equal, as you know from previous calls, we have a somewhat higher market share in Norway, both on wine and spirits, than we do in Sweden, which is the market where there is a border trade. And so, and also higher margins in the Norwegian monopoly than in some of the other channels. So all other things equal, if there is a let's call it permanent volume shift to the Norwegian monopoly, that is good for us. If we then move to the next slide. So here we see, and this is a new slide for those that have been following us for a while here.
You can see the seasonality of our business in terms of the group net sales. So obviously the first, the smallest quarter is the Q1, and then you have Q2 and Q3 that are, if not entirely equal, then roughly at that level. And then Q4 is really the quarter where a lot of the things happened. And then as Jacek previously elaborated, this quarter our sales were down by 5%. But on the year-to-date basis, they were up 7%, but that, you know, it has to be said, is driven then, as you can see in the bottom left corner by wine.
But here it's the full year effect of Globus, the two first quarter, which is driving the year to date. And then on spirits and industrial, they are more mitigated net sales increases, dampened by the currency translation effects, but driven by, on spirits by the net sales expansion, especially internationally, with amongst other things, Koskenkorva doing well. So if we move to the next slide, please. And here we see the impacts of you know, the longer term perspective. So we are comparing here on the left, the Q3 for '19 on a pro forma basis, 2021. And then Q3 of last year and this year, which are comparable.
They are apples to apples in the sense that Globus was already in our net sales numbers, same quarter last year. There you can see that the net sales decline is driven by wine and by industrials, for the reasons that Jacek mentioned, and then spirits is basically flat. Again, it's currency effect, lost partners in wine, and then we have taken very significant pricing, but the latest round is only in September. Thus, it's not compensating for these impacts. You may wonder, well, where is the Larsen divestment?
It's not in those numbers because it's included in the consolidated income statement in the line that is reported under other operating income. And the Larsen effect there is EUR 12.2 million, so that's the larger part of that EUR 14.3 million that is on that line. And then going forward, this will have a negative impact on our sales of EUR 6 million and EUR 2 million on comparable EBITDA. So if you're wondering, you know, where is that big revenue, well, that's where it is, it is on a different line. If we then move on to the next slide.
Here we have again, this is a new, a new format compared to what you have been, what you have been used to, again, providing a bit of perspective on the seasonality of the seasonality of the business. As you can see, and then you understand from our relatively high level of fixed OpEx, the increased net sales or the seasonality of the net sales typically leads to a crescendo, if I may call it like that, of profitability. You know, with its smallest, you know, the first quarter being very, very piano and then, you know, we have a fortissimo at the end with the Q4. Typically, last year it was not quite the case.
There were a number of factors that have affected us into this year that depressed last year's Q4 figure. But that's obviously a factor to take into account when we look at what is yet to be delivered. So this quarter, as Jacek mentioned, you know, it is definitely a mixed bag, not at the level that we want it to be. You have two out of three segments that are improving, but then you have the wine segment, where there are very significant profitability issues, and that's the reason that we are down.
And again, the price increases as of September, so only one month in a year in Norway and Sweden, and then price increases for Finland, effective as of end of October. We move to the next slide, that is a bit, you know, the same picture as what we are showing in the previous one, you know, with the wine being in decline and then the others increasing, compensating somewhat.
And then if you look at the picture of Q3, you know, in a historical perspective, you can see here that the Comparable EBITDA is about at the same level in terms of absolute EBITDA as the pro forma 2019, so the last pre-pandemic year. Now, you can see that the margin has not recovered. You know, the very simplified explanation for that is that, of course, we have added there very significant revenue from Globus, but in EBITDA terms, still in this quarter, the contribution there is quite limited.
But I think it bears remark that in terms of, in terms of the overall EBITDA of the group, we are almost back to the same level as we were in 2019. And then, you know, it's also very important then to remark what did these years of 2021 and partly, 2022 look like in this boost that we got from, from Covid. Although I think it's fair to say that last year, probably that boost was not very significant, but it was in 2020 and 2021. Very good. If we move to the next slide, please. Barley, our favorite crop, in close competition with the Norwegian potatoes, from which we make fantastic alcohol, you know, in a sustainable way.
And, I think that it's, you know, it's a bit reassuring to see that we have come down somewhat from the Mount Everest of last year in terms of the barley price. Although I have to say that, as you can see from the graph, at this EUR 250 per ton, you know, we are still at significantly higher levels than we were in previous years. So it is something that is, although 26% below the previous year, it is something that impacts our financials. And right now, the harvest, I think, you know, can be said in Finland was not fantastic, but it was also not terrible.
So, I mean, our estimation now is that there is, you know, is a tight market for some needs, there are barley imports, you know, to, to Finland, and we expect that the price is forecasted to stay above this normal level, for 2023, 2024, but we don't believe that it will increase from the current levels. So there you have it. If you, if we then please move on to the next slide. And here we have, we have also a new, a new slide. Working capital is, is very much, a focus of, of, of ours. And as you can see, the net working capital as...
I mean, admittedly, with some downward rounding, but still it is very close to 0% of net sales for the last twelve months at the end of September. Part of this is a purely seasonal impact. Typically, working capital it decreases, and especially then it will decrease in the fourth quarter, so more to come. But there is a big difference here. So inventories here have decreased EUR 285 million. But it has to be admitted here, in the spirit of transparency, that that impact is entirely due to the Larsen divestment.
We think that the inventory levels are still too high and are working very, very hard to benefit really from the high sales season in Q4 to take them properly down on a like-for-like basis. That's something that normally happens, you know, as a matter of course due to the seasonality of our business, with high sales and then lower production and purchases in the last quarter. But then we are working over and above that on concerted efforts to take the inventory down on a like for like basis by around EUR 30 million. To be fully transparent, that is very much still a work in progress. And we will have to report back to you on exactly where we end up.
I don't think that we will be managing all of that adjustment this year, but, but, it's in our plans to manage significant decrease, and, and really that is for Q4 to come. And then the other explanation for net working capital being down is that the trade and other receivables have decreased significantly, and this is due to the fact that we have, as you know, expanded our sales and receivable program very significantly, then selling also the monopoly receivables in Norway and Sweden that are related to the ex-Arcus parts of our business. So all in all then, you know, that leads to this very low level of net working capital currently, which will vary with the seasons, but vary from a lower level.
If we then move to the next slide, please. So here, the operating cash flow, you know, on a quarter-by-quarter basis. And I think, you know, here I want to emphasize the year-to-date operating cash flow, which has improved significantly versus last year. And when, you know, it has a negative impact year to date, where to date it has a positive impact. And the two, you know, reasons explaining that, one of them. And they are basically the ones that you saw on the previous slide. So it has to do with the positive impact from the sales of receivables, namely.
And then, you know, in some sense, it also has to do with the fact that we haven't really had the big inventory increase that we had last year. So last year's poor performance is not being repeated, so to say. And then you may ask, "But what, where, where is the why is the net cash flow from operations, why is it negative?" Actually, in Q3, which is not a positive impact versus last year. And the reason, the explanation here is a little bit technical, but basically the idea is that there is a seasonal impact also of these of our receivables, where normally then from the beginning of Q3 to the end of Q3, the receivables decrease, increasing the operating cash flow.
But of course, since we have now increased our sales of the receivables, you know, they were already sold at a positive impact, you know, in our balance sheet at the end of Q2. And as a result, the seasonal impact in Q3 was not around to provide us with a positive boost. So you can say, obviously, the fact that those receivables they are sold is one element of variation, positive and negative with the season that has been eliminated, and that was helping us in Q2 and then hurting us in Q3. But on a net basis, year to date, it is a positive.
In terms of overall cash flow, obviously very positively impacted by the Larsen divestment, about which more later. And in terms of the CapEx, it's somewhat up versus last year. There are variations from quarter to quarter, obviously, but here we are putting a lot of effort into replacement investments and to improve work safety and energy efficiency for sustainability purposes. If we then go to the next slide, please. Leverage, I mean, this has been a big topic. Our leverage increased versus the previous very low levels at beginning 2022 behind three impacts. One impact was the acquisition of Globus Wine, which added to our net debt since it was debt-financed.
And unfortunately, as you know, you know, it didn't add in the end that much to Comparable EBITDA, because the profitability was lower than what we believed at the time of acquisition. So that is one factor. Second factor then is that we added this EUR 30 million in inventory, which was also increasing our net debt. And last but not least, in the subsequent quarters, as our Comparable EBITDA was poorer than it was in the same quarter a year before, and that happened now for a number of quarters in a row. You know, this ratio, which is net debt over Comparable EBITDA, also worsened due to the fact not only that net debt increased, but also that Comparable EBITDA decreased.
So the good news is that with the Larsen agreed sales price of EUR 58.5 million paid at the closing on September 29th, we have been able to, in spite of this decrease in the comparable EBITDA on the rolling twelve basis, to decrease the leverage to 3.5x, which is slightly lower than at the end of the same quarter last year. I mean, we still have some way to go to our target of being below 2.5x, but the avenues there are clear. It's to get our comparable EBITDA up, and it's to get our inventory down. In terms of other elements about the debt structure and liquidity position, we have a very strong liquidity position.
We have a revolving credit facility that is unused, and we are financing ourselves mainly in Finland through the use of our commercial papers. If we then move to the next slide, please. Yes, so our long-term financial targets for 2030, I mean, we have not put any colors here, and that probably is for the good. Because there would be a lot of red, but still, it's important to put it here. I'm sure that you will keep us honest, you know, with your questions, but we try to do that ourselves as well by showing this slide.
Here, you know, the only metric which is, let's call it, in line with our targets is the one on the annual net sales growth, which is at the upper end, or even for 2022, a bit above the range that we'd communicated. Then the big challenge or issue for us is the Comparable EBITDA margin. 16% is the target. Admittedly, that is a target for the end of the period, but still, I mean, it's quite clear that in terms of our performance, we are not where we should be. Then you have the same with the net interest-bearing debt.
We just talked about it, so I will not go into that. And then in terms of the dividend, payout ratio, which you could call a green, but of course, that is of little comfort to, to you, so I will not even make that, attempt, because one thing is the payout ratio in terms of the net result, but if the net results are, poor, then the absolute amount of dividend that, that you as, shareholders, for those of you on this call, which I assume is most of you, is, lower than what you can, reasonably expect and lower than what we are aiming to deliver.
So there, our focus is on getting the comparable EBITDA and getting the net result up, and then mechanically, it will follow that the dividend payout ratio or the actual dividend payout will be better. Although, of course, it bears to be said that the flexibility that we have if we then improve on this net interest bearing debt metric, which we have done with the Larsen sale and which we want to do with the working capital, obviously then that provides us more flexibility for a higher dividend. And then I believe that I still have... Do I have one slide left? Let's go to the next, or is it back to Jacek? Yes, it is. I think it is back to you.
Yes, yes, I think-
Sorry for the confusion. I don't know. It was... Maybe I am the nervous one as well. Back to you, Jacek.
Thank you very much. Thank you, Sigmund. So I have two slides to wrap it up before we get to the questions. First, there's a quick summary of Q3, which will be-
... A bit of a repetition in the summary of what I talked about in the beginning of our call and then I will give some more information on the press release that we have published earlier today on the planned changes to our operating model. But first, let me start with the summary. As I said, I personally believe it is objectively better than Q2, but it's very relative, because Q2 was really at the low end, I hope, of our performance. But Q3 definitely was far from stellar, to say it politely, and also the fact that we missed the market consensus is obviously not good news. We have some pockets of strong or decent or acceptable performance here and there.
I mentioned trying to be balanced about it, throughout my introductory part, so definitely own wine performance or things like Koskenkorva in international markets and a few others, other things we could mention. But obviously, their impact pales in comparison with the overall performance and the key thing that, as I said, burns a hole in our pocket, which is the meltdown of the partner wine business, especially in Sweden. At least at the current level of our... of the quality of our planning and execution, we were not able to so far offset it, but it's not for the lack of trying, but we will have to try a little bit harder to do that, and I will talk about it later in the context of these changes to our operating model.
The second thing here I would mention, which is the last large last point here, is about the Larsen acquisition. Obviously, it is a one-off, but it was a very desirable to, and beneficial to our balance sheet and the quality of our financial divestiture. So it needs to be highlighted as one of the accomplishments of this third quarter. Let's then... Can we switch the slide? I think I have this final slide about the changes to our operating model. Yeah, let me give you some background to this. It's important for us to recognize that this is a plan that was prepared by the management over the last few weeks. This is not something that we prepared on the back envelope when I have arrived.
My small contribution to this whole thing may be accelerating the execution of the plans that were already on the table, and maybe slightly strengthening and increasing the scope of the actions that we are planning. Because obviously, we'll be compliant with all local labor laws and regulations. It's at the planning stage, and we will engage the employee representatives in discussing both our plans and the consequences it will have for specific individuals. So we'll do it in the right way, but the intent is very clear. We need to make changes to our operating model, which should not be, at the same time, a surprise because Anora is a young company, and our operating model will continue to evolve.
To evolve in order to improve efficiency of our operations, that's the first thing. Second, to improve the effectiveness of our strategy execution. We have communicated some strategies, and we need to deliver on them, and then also, obviously, profitability. The general theme here is not about reducing headcount, it's about reducing workload, or maybe in other words, reducing the number of priorities. I want us to do fewer things, do them better, and do them longer to be more persistent on certain subject, but also to have resources and attention given to these subjects. So the intention here also is to reduce complexity to strengthen commercial focus on things that work and things that move the needle or things that need fixing because if we don't fix them, they move the needle in the opposite direction.
This reduced workload, or reduced number of commercial priorities that we're planning, will have an impact, obviously, on the workforce that we need to deliver on this. We need to improve the clarity in our commercial choices, in choosing the battles and discipline in executing on these choices. So it will require some hard choices, first and foremost on the agenda side, but then it will also have some consequences for the workforce. So it's implemented after the consultations and after discussions with the employee representatives. We expect that the impact of this will be around 40 headcounts, 40 employees that will be affected for the total bottom line effect of EUR 3-4 million.
Again, I would like to reinforce that we'll do it the right way, the Anora way, which is, in compliance with local labor laws and, regulations. These are plans, and the management intent at this stage, and it's, subject to further discussions, but we are very intentional about making this happen because the business requires this. That's all I have at this stage. Sigmund, I think, did we miss anything?
Well, I'm not sure that we did, and I see that there are many, many interesting and good questions waiting for us, probably.
We didn't get a chance to read them, yes, those.
So I think that I don't know, Milena, if you want to read them out or if I should read them out, then we can get started on those.
... Yes, most certainly. I can, I can start reading them out here and see where they start. So the-- yeah, so there are many questions on the chat, and you can still send those over, and, you can also raise your hand to ask a question. We will first go through the chat questions, and I will start here. So the first question is from Rauli Juva. Can you share what are the expectations for Globus for Q4? Any meaningful improvement, or EBITDA contribution expected there?
Yes. I mean, we will not share specific figures for Globus, but I can say two things. I see that there is a similar question also from Joni Sandvall, about profit improvement is going in Globus, and did we reach positive EBITDA? So let me try to answer the two questions together. The answer is yes, we did reach a positive EBITDA for Globus in Q3 of this quarter. Unlike last year, when the reported EBITDA for Globus was also positive, actually more positive than it is this year, we now think that the numbers and the accounting is correct, and it's a real achievement.
So that is a lot of hard work from the Globus team behind that to reach that positive Comparable EBITDA. But we are now at least on the right side of the zero, although a lot of work still remains. So that's one point about the underlying. And then another comment, which is about the contribution from there, and especially the contribution then relative to last year. So here there are a bit of opposing effects with Q3 when you are comparing to last year for and the Globus impact and Q4. Because as you know, these let's call it accounting irregularities or inflated profit and the inventory values were discovered, you know, during the year-end closing, so they were all reported against Q4.
So, the reality of it is that Q3 and Q4 will, you know, have for this Q3 and is projected for Q4 to be better on an underlying basis versus what we believe the equivalent results were last year. But in terms of the impact to the Group's EBITDA this quarter, we saw a negative impact from Globus versus last year, because last year in Q3, they were reporting, and we were reporting, inflated numbers due to this accounting problem. And then it will be the opposite impact in Q4, when this big write-down of inventory of EUR 3 million, which occurred in Q4, will no longer be there. So I hope I answered your question.
Yeah. Thank you. And then continuing with the question from Joni Sandvall, have you seen any change in demand following monopoly price increases in September? And have you seen price increases from competitors?
I think that the first question is a bit too early to tell. I mean, as you saw, most of the markets, at least the monopoly, they were in sort of negative territory, part of which is still just a normalization effect after COVID. I mean, I think... then there are not many effects going on as well. I think that it's fair to say, because here you are asking about, you know, monopoly price increases, that maybe the demand is a bit weaker, rather, in the on-trade channel, in some of the countries, Finland and Norway, maybe in particular.
So how all of this plays out, will, you know, demand drop following those price increases for the market as a whole? I think that it's too early to tell. We haven't seen, you know, a massive drop now, although the monopoly volumes are in negative territory. But that was the case also prior to the price increases. And whereas we have seen price increases from competitors, yes, we have.
And I would say mostly in the same order of magnitude as Anora, although if you want more details, I think that it's fair to say that on a year-over-year basis, we are taking somewhat more than the market on spirits, and we are still taking somewhat less than the market on wine, especially on the partner wine side. So, that's something that obviously, as you know, we are evaluating on a running basis.
Yes, and a follow-on question to that, from Joni Sandvall. So if excluding the lost partner deals in wine, what was the underlying growth?
There, I have to, if not admit ignorance, I have to admit that I don't have that figure there immediately. I mean, I have to admit that also internally now, our focus is not necessarily on trying to come up with a new metric that is sort of making us look good if we exclude all of the bad, all of the bad news.
Exactly.
The fact is now our focus is on facing this reality, which is there, which is that we, you know, we lost these big partners. They were also quite profitable partners. And we have regained some partners, but not to the extent of the ones that we lost. I mean, I would say that, and I have to come back and do the more detailed math, but you know, on the existing portfolio, you know, on the like-for-like basis, we are doing a good job. We are winning tenders, we are launching new products, both own and, and then on the own, we're clearly growing, you know, 11% in local currency.
But also on the partner side, you know, we are having good success with the tenders and market share performance is also decent. So a large part of the problem, if that's what you are aiming at, is the lost partner deals. But that's part of the game, right? When you are in the wine partner business, if you are losing more partners than you are gaining, and more profitable ones than the ones you are onboarding, then you have a big problem that we are trying to address. Yes.
Yeah. Continuing, question from Rauli Juva: How much of the current cash are you planning to utilize in paying back debt, and when is that expected to materialize?
Yes, I mean, I think let me not give a super precise answer to that. I mean, we are in the middle of a process to have a look at harmonizing and joining our various cash pools from the Arcus and Altia sides. And then, you know, we will have to figure out with our new treasury director, who just joined the company, exactly how we make use of that cash. I mean, one thing to not forget as well is that there is a very, very high cyclicality, right, of our business with the working capital needs going up. So that cash, you know, varies, you know, even within the month.
But let us come back with a more precise answer on what we do. I mean, let's also not forget, you know, that in terms of, as you saw from the figures, we have very significant amounts of commercial paper that is out in the market. So it's also, in the first instance, as we've already done, a matter of simply not rolling over those commercial paper.
Yeah. Thank you.
So that's happening-
And, uh-
kind of as those mature, those short-term commercial paper.
Thank you. And a question from Joni Sandvall: How is the center of excellence strategy progressing?
Center of Excellence, that is a short question and but a very complex answer. And maybe I try to give my answer and then maybe also, if Jacek is comfortable with that, you know, his observations on that.
Sure.
So I would say the Center of Excellence strategy is proceeding well. I think that this is an opportunity also because I know that many of our employees are probably watching this as well, to give huge amounts of credit to everyone who is involved in those efforts. And those are white-collar employees, blue-collar employees on the line, who are helping each other and teaching each other with moving, you know, wine volumes from Norway now in the first instance to Globus Wine, with everything that has to be done administratively and in terms of technicalities to actually ensure the safe and high quality production. It's really something that needs to be recognized.
So I would say that it is proceeding as planned, well, thanks to huge efforts of everyone, and at the same time, as you know, reality is always a bit more complicated than a PowerPoint slide. So there are plenty of challenges, but we have very good people who are working on addressing those.
Thank you. If I can add a few words to this one, and with a bit of outside perspective, still, because obviously I had a chance to go through the overall plan and also talk about the execution of this plan with the right people. We also know that we have a change, handover in management of this, of the supply chain part of the business, industrial part of the business-
Mm-hmm
... from Hannu to Risto. So I had a chance to spend a good amount of time with both of them and also with employee representatives-
Mm
... to discuss how this is progressing. Having observed similar exercises in the past in different organizations, I have to say, and as a compliment to the people who are managing, who designed and are managing this process, that it's progressing surprisingly friction-free, which speaks to the clarity of the choices made and also the quality of execution of this. And then, if we are on track, and Sigmund seems to be confident that we are on track in delivering the committed benefits behind it, generally, it's a thumbs up on centers of excellence. Thank you.
Thank you. Then we have a question from Yuri Lyashch: You guide for an adjusted EBITDA for Q4 between EUR 29 million and EUR 37 million, as you have not narrowed the interval. What would it take for you to reach the higher end of the guidance, which looks challenging, to say at least? Or is it just left for optics or consistency reasons?
Well, I think this is one of those situations where obviously I think that you come to this call to learn things, and then obviously I also learn things. So, I mean, I can only say that this is a good point and, you know, as we've mentioned, both of us, both Jacek and myself, you know, our Q4 will be very, very challenging. It's quite dependent, you know, on our volume and to some extent, on the behavior of the NOK and SEK versus the euro.
So I think that's a fair point that you make, and I won't comment on that further, other than saying that I take the feedback.
Thank you. And a follow-on question from Yuri. A couple of questions on net working capital and inventory. Further reduction potential for inventories, you say, but is this effect positive in entirety offset by a similar reduction, negative in payables, and hence no reason to assume a permanent downward shift in net working capital, adjusted for all the seasonal fluctuations, of course?
Yes, it's a good question. I think that the fair point here to say, though, is that, you know, in terms of the payment terms that we get from our suppliers, they would then be typically shorter, you know, than the amount of time that we are keeping this inventory in our stock. So I'm not sure that that's entirely correct, but you are right that of course, there is an offsetting impact also. That's quite correct.
Yeah.
There are obviously other benefits as well, without the purely net working capital such as, you know, simply the space or the operational efficiency in our warehouse.
Thank you. And a follow-on question on factoring and sale of receivables. What is the approximate implied annual interest level or implied rate of return when sold? What is your cost of capital on this scheme?
I won't disclose the exact annual interest level, but I would say that you can imagine that first, since these are short-term, this is, you know, implicitly as some sort of short, short-term financing. And, you know, the counterparty is implicitly a triple A, since it's a government counterparty. You can imagine that the margins that our esteemed bank connections are charging us on this financing are the lowest sort of available. So I think that that's about what I would like to disclose.
Yeah. Then a question regarding Larsen. How much trade and other liabilities have you historically had related to the financing of Larsen business? And then some background on assets sold.
Yeah, background. As we said, the inventory was about 31 and 13, 1.5. So that is the asset side of things. There were also some receivables of around EUR 1.5 million, and I'm talking now about point-in-time estimates, and then on the liabilities, about EUR 1.5 million.
Thank you. And then a question from Joni Sandvall. Can you comment on Larsen's seasonality and impact on Q4?
I think, drinking cognac, you know, for Christmas or gifting it, you know, to your friends and family and cousins and then business contacts, et cetera, I think is a magnificent idea, and I strongly encourage you to do that. But I think that, you know, normally that is also a habit. I know in Finland especially, they are a very beautiful sort of gift packaging as well. So, you know, that those jokes aside, I mean, I think you can deduce from that, that Larsen seasonality is a bit skewed, you know, towards Q4.
So there is more than fair share, let's call it, more than one fourth of the seasonality is clearly coming in the fourth quarter. I mean, as a rule of thumb, I would say that, you know, use the seasonality of the spirits business at large and maybe add a little bit because it is the type of product that maybe is even more seasonally dependent, but less so than, for example, aquavit or glögg.
Okay, this was the chat questions, then let's move over to the live questions. So, if you want to ask a question, please raise your hand and we have a question from the telephone lines, and so let's check if I can unmute or if you can unmute yourself.
Yes, I think this is...
Yeah
... Maria Wikström from SEB.
Yeah.
So, I think most of my questions are asked, and I think Yuri touched this subject already a little bit on the different way, but still, thinking about your full year guidance, and if I would put back the inventory down, right down in Globus
Wine
that happened last year, Q4-
Yeah
... I think you still, in order to get to the lower end of the guidance range, you would need to grow your, adjusted EBITDA by 21%-
Mm-hmm
... and yet now you were down 50%.
Mm-hmm.
If you could just walk me through that. I mean, if it's-
Mm-hmm
... the price increases and how much they would represent-
Yeah
... and what gives you confidence that you would actually hit the low end of the-
Mm-hmm
... the guidance range?
Yeah. I mean, it's those things. I'm not sure that I'm gonna quantify all of them, but it's basically three components. One of them is the full impact of the price increases. So the ones done in September, and then additional ones in Finland, quite significant, starting with October. So it's not something that you can see at all in the Q3 numbers. So that is that's one thing. Second thing is in terms of the cost of goods sold, the year-on-year comparison is that, you know, by the time that you had reached Q4 last year, there was more of the bad news, so to say, that was already in our base.
So the raw and packing material inflation, you know, it was coming gradually through last year. And so, but it was not yet deflating our base of last year. And so from that point of view, the comparison numbers are somewhat easier for us. And then last but not least, there is then the continued focus on OpEx and lower marketing costs than last year. So there is still some to come on that front. So those are the big elements then in addition to the Globus Wine.
But I think that it's, you know, as you and others have pointed out in your various analyses, it is a challenging quarter for us in terms of where we are very much dependent on the volume and other things going our way.
Okay. Thank you. And then, my other question is on the wines partner portfolio. And, I mean, now you say that the existing partner business, I mean, that was performing well. But I think, I mean, Jacek mentioned that, you're going to look more into detail the profitability of the partner business. And, I'm just wondering that how you're gonna limit these kind of exits in the future that, I would think that—I mean, if I were you, your partner, I kind of wanted you to invest in the business, and now we have a second round of the cost cutting going on. So how you can convince your partner that, I mean, they really want to work with you going forward as well?
Well, I mean, I think that first, I mean, in terms of what I was saying, I was talking about the commercial. I think that that performance was related to the commercial performance of the existing partner portfolio, right? Not necessarily the profitability. So that's one point. And the second point is around the services that we are providing to the partners, which we still think, and you know, I think this is sort of our objective statement. If you look at our Anora sales force, you know, be it in Norway, Sweden or Finland, it remains market leading, right?
We remain in Norway the leader and number two in Sweden, and I believe also still the number one in Finland. So, you know, however you look at that, that is a fact that in terms of the capabilities that we can offer the partners, you know, on a system level, they are still the best in the market. So that's number one. Second, then, you know, it is individual and this, don't forget, the partner business is we have a number of different operating companies, so this is on a partner by partner basis.
Rather than to make kind of like big statements, I would say, about the overall ability. So the reason that we believe that we can convince our partners to keep staying with us is due to all the very, very talented people working on the partner business day in, day out. And they are, you know, every day earning the trust of their partners. So it's difficult to make kind of like an overall statement other than the fact that efficiency or no efficiency, our system capabilities remain the best in the market. And you know, we are a leader with some of the highest in-house competence in working with wine in these markets.
Yeah, maybe if I can add something to, to this, subject. Yes, as I indicated, we will more actively than so far manage the partner mix, for the reasons that, that we discussed before. At the same time, I strongly believe that we have a, a lot to offer, especially to partners that are willing to, create value, to build value of, of their brands, together with us. We have a lot to offer to them. We are still pitching for new partners, and our success rate is good. It's not good enough to cover for the losses of the two large partners, but there are still good arguments for us to use, especially in the, in the, in the context, in the relative context of the market in general, because the headwinds that we are facing are not typical for us.
Yes, in the Swedish markets or in the Norwegian markets, all importers are facing exactly the same issues, but still, the quality of services that we provide are probably the best. So, the fact that we will more actively manage the partner mix in search for better profitability of this partner business does not mean that we are not committed to the partner business, and this was the second part of my commentary earlier today. And it doesn't mean that we give up on the services that we need to provide to them to be an attractive partner.
Thank you. And if I may ask, I don't know, Jacek, if it's too early to ask, but I mean, the... If we think about the 2030 strategy, and I think there is a lot of elements which, I mean, I mean, there was a lot of talk about the, the growth, of course, your, like, the own international expansion, but also M&A. And now I think, even more, more we have now needed to focus on, on the cost side in order to get the profitability up that how would you think, I mean, yourself, I mean, to prioritize these, these things that... I mean, what, what should we see first, and, is the M&A now a bit on, on hold before we get to fix the profitability, or how should we think about that?
Yeah, it's definitely too early to talk about this. I need to collect more data, more insights, but if I were to give a quick answer to your question, is that the job number one is to improve profitability, to reduce our net debt leverage, to improve the company's dividend capacity for the future. So in terms of priorities, taking care of the business here and now is absolute priority for me, at least. We are still committed, and one of the reasons why I'm with Anora is that I was excited, and still am, by the way, with the strategy as established and communicated to the Capital Markets Day in November. I share the ambition of building a Nordic infused, so to speak, brands that can travel internationally, supported by the sustainability message as an enabler for this expansion.
So if we describe the strategy in this way, I'm definitely committed to it. At the same time, the job here and now, especially when you look at the targets that Sigmund was presenting, is quite straightforward. It's improving profitability as measured by EBITDA percentage, reducing net debt leverage to create firepower for potential future M&As, and improve dividend capacity in the process. This is my short and mid-term priority set. It does not mean that we stop researching the market for potential M&A opportunities, because many things take place. But in terms of turning around the business, it's about taking care of the organic part of it.
Thank you. And finally, if I just may touch upon the overall raw material and situation and the cost, on the cost side, that, I mean, we discussed about the barley price, but what about the other components? If we talk about glass bottles, I guess delivery costs are down, but if we can talk about the other cost elements in the cost of goods sold as well.
Well, I think that on the whole, what we can say now is on a quarter-over-quarter basis, so Q3, Q4, you know, we are now looking at something which is more stable, and then going into next year, looking for some decreases. But on a year-over-year basis, and still, you know, input prices were increasing somewhat quarter-over-quarter. Still this year, the year-over-year effect, 2024 over 2023 on raw and packing material, I would say is still on a rather neutral level. But I think that the worst of the worst seems to have abated, right? So, what...
If anything, we are getting increases now, I think that they are kind of delayed effects, as I believe we've mentioned in previous calls. You know, with, sometimes there are contractual restrictions to when, I don't know, glass manufacturers can increase their prices, and then they are covering for the energy increases or problems of last year rather than this year. But apart from those cases, you know, it's more on the stable or downward trend, and with on average, I would say flat-ish quarter on quarter.
Thank you. I have no further questions.
Thank you, Maria. It seems we don't have any more questions on the chat. And if there are any additional questions, then please raise your hand. But if not, then I would like to thank all the speakers and all the people joining for great, great lively questions today. And our next event will be on the fourteenth of February. You will be joining us on Valentine's Day for the full year results, so welcome. Welcome then. Thank you for today.