Is obviously the tariff discussion, which we have in relation to Americas, of course, also impacting other areas, but Americas in particular. Of course, also the potential packages that, for example, Germany has been discussing, $5 billion on the infrastructure and on the defense as well. Now, at least I have a background noise.
Yes, I think that Rachel is actually recording this call, so that's creating a bit of background noise. I have to apologize that we didn't put the recording on time, so it only started at the demand outlook.
Okay, but now at least the background noise has disappeared, so from that point of view, let's continue.
Please, Teo, go ahead.
When we take a look at the demand still and the funnel, when we take a look at the overall sales funnels, the opportunities, they continue to be good. Of course, we usually refer to the standard credit business because that is where it maybe adds most value to take a look at the sales funnel. It continues to be on a high level. When we take a look at the new cases coming into the funnel, the amount of those is rather down than up, but there is nothing dramatic in it, so it is maybe slightly down, but still on a fairly good level. Like I said, the funnel overall continues to be in good shape.
I guess that the question more is that the uncertainty created, for example, by the tariffs, how will it impact the decision-making going forward, if in any way, and of course, not only in the Americas, but in the other areas as well. I guess that we could go to the next page, which is the financial guidance. Yep. There are obviously no changes in this one. Net sales are expected to remain approximately on the same level in 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The EBIT margin is on the same level or to improve in 2025 in comparison to 2024.
Maybe good to remember here that when we take a look at the overall seasonality, the last couple of years, 2023 and 2024, have been maybe a little bit different from the seasonality pattern point of view than the earlier years, meaning that the beginning of the year has also been quite good. It is maybe something to consider. Maybe this is the normal seasonality pattern will probably return sooner or later, and maybe it is also regarding 2025 a good idea to think about maybe a little bit more normal seasonality pattern than what we have been having, for example, 2024 when the Q1 and Q2 were maybe exceptionally strong in comparison to the full year numbers. No other comments basically in relation to the financial guidance. I guess we would be ready to go into the Q&A.
Yes, let's do so. Thank you, Teo. As previously, you can kind of tell that you are interested in asking questions just by raising your hands. I think we already have three hands raised here, and Daniela was first. Daniela, please go ahead with your question.
Hi, thank you so much. I have just three questions. First one is, can you, I guess, back end of last year, Biden was talking about that ports upgrade to offset Chinese cranes, I guess. We have not heard much about that from Trump. Maybe what have you heard regarding that? Is that moving ahead or not? That is my first question.
What is now going to happen, at least based on our understanding, is that the tariffs that the Biden administration already decided to put on the Chinese STS cranes, so they will come into force in May, and that would be 25% on STSs from China. At the same time, we also know that customers have been placing orders, at least some orders, despite this tariff. Also, otherwise, we have been saying that maybe this 25% is not enough to, in a way, make a major change in the supply chains so that all of a sudden STS cranes would be coming from somewhere else than China so that the cost efficiency that China provides in relation to this one is better or higher than the 25%.
When it comes to the other part of the incentive from the government, so the subsidy packages by Build America cases, that is, as you may remember, a structure where the customer applies for a subsidy. Then based on, for example, domestic content, either receives the subsidy or not. We have been having these kind of cases. We have been having these kind of cases in the sales funnel. There are no direct decisions based on this one. The situation from that point of view is more or less unchanged. Of course, going forward, what is going to happen with these subsidies? At least I do not have information that the subsidies would have been taken away, but it has been, to my understanding, relatively silent in relation to the subsidies.
The situation is not much changed in comparison to the end of last year.
Great, thank you. I guess the other big news this quarter has been sort of the German funds. My next two questions are kind of like I can ask them in one, but relate to, do you have much of exposure in defense? Could you get sort of any exposure there? The second thing, on what we have seen so far of the infrastructure, what would you say sort of like is your exposure? Maybe you can give us an overview of what you have in Germany and how much of that would be directly infrastructure related. Thank you.
Germany obviously is an important market for us. It is somewhat less than 10% of our total annual sales if we take a look at it as a country, including obviously everything. Maybe starting with the infrastructure. Of course, it depends a little bit what the government there means with the infrastructure, but in principle, we do not have a huge direct exposure to infrastructure, roads, and those kind of things. At the same time, companies that would be providing help to the governments in building infrastructure would be needing equipment. We would obviously be a potential beneficiary there. We could be delivering equipment to the companies that are providing the actual work to improve infrastructure. Definitely an indirect impact, at least in this case. What would be the timeline then from decision to actual materialization in the orders and sales?
That's a much more complex question, but any economic activity in Germany definitely would be a potential lever for us as well. Defense is maybe a little bit different there from the point of view that there obviously can be direct link as well. If customers start to build military equipment, for example, that typically requires lifting capacity, including cranes, these are heavy objects in many cases, be it tanks or jet fighters or whatever. Of course, the impact can be direct. We are supplying to defense companies both in Europe as well as in the U.S. For example, the U.S. Navy is a big customer of ours.
When we take a look at the whole defense sector as we have defined it, we are only talking about a couple of % of our annual sales, but it is quite a lot project related, like the U.S. Navy, for example, where we had a big order now in the fourth quarter. Of course, it is impacting the industrial equipment deliveries that way. The direct exposure to defense is not very high or has not been very high. It is definitely a potential for us going forward. In these couple of percentage points, one has to also remember that this defense definition is basically based on how we categorize customers. In case there are customers that are primarily doing something else, but also defense activities, they may be in our general manufacturing as well.
Thank you. Thank you. I think that Antti Kansanen, you are the next in line, so please go ahead with your question.
Thank you. A couple of questions for me. First is on the industrial side. I mean, Q4 really strong on orders. I know you had one big order there as well, but aside from that as well, was there any kind of timing-related stuff in terms of turn-of-the-year price increases or something like that that would have kind of resulted in clients ordering ahead of time comparison to, let's say, if Q1 continues with a similar type of demand, are we going to see a slowdown? Any of these type of impacts?
I don't think that there was a pricing-related, let's say, discontinuum at the year end. Typically, those are in relation to Q1. There was obviously a big deal there. Also, the standard credit order intake continued to be good, but nothing very specific.
Okay. The second question was on the U.S. demand, and there you mentioned that it's starting to flatten out. Could you give a clarification? Is it kind of stable on a good level, so the growth rate is flattening out, or are you seeing already the tariff impacts and others leading to a lower demand?
We have seen, let's say, sentiment maybe changing a little bit to the worse. Now that we discussed the sentiment regarding Europe being maybe a little bit more to the better as a result of, for example, the German stuff that we just discussed. In the U.S., it may be the other way around, so that the sentiment is maybe a little bit to either stable or to the worse. It has been on an excellent level, so this is not a major change from that point of view. This was visible already before the tariffs because this was visible basically in January already. It is most likely, at least partially, in relation to things just having been on a very good level, so that this kind of a flattening/slide slowdown in a way would be there anyways.
The tariff impacts we probably will be seeing a little bit later in the order intake. Now what has been happening is that, for example, our crane spare parts are to a large extent subject to tariffs, and we have increased prices already now in the U.S. based on these tariffs. This is something that the customers can actually.
I just want to run here. I'm saying the U.S. is flattening. Okay. European sentiment is better because of Germany. U.S. is worse to stable.
So Gael.
Rather than an overall change.
Gael, you are not on mute.
Sorry.
No problem.
Can I still take one question which was on kind of the seasonality impacts that you mentioned that perhaps last year was a little bit different? Could you remind why last year was different and where did we see kind of extraordinary strength that we should be aware of on the year-on-year comparisons now in 2025?
I think that the main reason why the previous years have been a little bit different maybe from the seasonality point of view is the order book. That as a result of the 2022 delivery issues and then the very good order intake also in 2023 as well as in 2024 also, we have been having a little bit, let's say, a bent-up in a way sales in the order book so that we have been able to utilize the situation in the first quarter as well. Maybe better than during the previous years on average. I don't think that there is necessarily anything more significant difference.
Now, of course, we have a lower order book for 2025 than what we had for 2024, even if this is mostly in ports, but it is still not as good a sole situation as it has been in the previous years in the other businesses as well.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Johan Eliasson, you would be the next one. Please go ahead with your questions.
Yeah. Hello, Teo and all colleagues. I was just wondering about Germany, coming back to that again. When you acquired the Demag brand, you sold the Stahl brand. How has your German market shares developed since? Is it sort of stable at the combination of Demag work on your cranes, or have you lost to the Stahl buyer?
I think that overall in, let's say, that overall in Germany, it is a little bit difficult to figure out the market shares because there are quite many small and mid-sized players. The overall impression is that in Germany, we would have been roughly able to maintain the market share, and we have not lost market share, but I would not dare to say that we would have gained either. We know that we have gained in the U.S., but I would not be as bold regarding Germany, but we have maintained. In Germany, there are also players that are quite, let's say, price sensitive, so there are players who are actually increasing and reducing a little bit the price in line with their own capacity. We typically would be maybe more reluctant to do that than maybe some other players.
It may create a little bit more volatility into the market. Overall, I think that we have maintained. That would be the most likely outcome.
The recent decision to take the Demag crane as a distributor brand, so to say, it hasn't changed that?
It has changed it from the point of view that the end customer contacts, end customer cranes are to some extent on a lower level, but we have been able to compensate that in the component business. When you take a look at the overall situation, it actually is quite okay. When we take a look at the global situation overall, it is maybe so that from the crane point of view, replacing the cranes with components only, we may have lost some customers in a global scheme of things, but let's say less than what we actually anticipated. Customers have taken this shift in a very good way.
Of course, it means that in some cases, instead of delivering the hoist and the crane, we are actually delivering the hoist to somebody else, and then the crane part is built by another company.
That should obviously improve your margin profile, I would assume.
That is improving our margin profile and has improved our margin profile in addition to being able to be more efficient, obviously, but also that has impacted.
Excellent. Finally, any update on the CEO search?
The CEO search is ongoing. The board is working on the topic, looking for both internal and external candidates, but no insight into time schedule as such.
Okay. Thank you.
Pasi Laine, our Board Chair, commented this briefly at yesterday's AGM and said that the search has progressed well, and the appointment will be made in due course, so whatever that then means. Yes, that was the comment yesterday. Now, Mikael Döbel, it's your turn to ask questions. Please go ahead.
Yeah, I actually just had a couple of clarification questions. Firstly, on the seasonality comment, if I read you correctly, I mean, what you're referring to is basically your revenue recognition, right? Because you talk about the order book. You are not talking about the order intake seasonality. Am I correct there?
I am mostly talking about the sales revenue volume, correct. Not order intake. Order intake seasonality has never been as strong as it has been in the sales. The conclusion is correct.
Okay. Another clarification. In your opening remarks, you talked about the sales funnel, and you mentioned standard cranes there. As I understand, you mainly referred to industrial business, but did those comments also refer to the ports business, or would you like to talk a bit more about the situation there?
That's a good clarification. That comment was on the industrial businesses. This was mostly on standard cranes within industrial businesses, and that is where the sales funnel is the most relevant because it is consisting of smaller deals. In the ports business, the funnel is good there as well. The comment is similar from that point of view. The difficulty in the ports business is that the link between the funnel and the order intake is much more difficult to do because these are bigger individual deals, and the customer's decision-making timing varies a lot. From the ports business point of view, the overall underlying sales funnel and the movement within there is the activity continues to be on a fairly good level. There is no major change one way or the other in comparison to the situation a couple of months ago.
Okay. That's clear. Then just finally on the aftermarket business, I'm not sure if you want to comment separately on industrial and on the ports, but I mean, just looking at utilization rates in the industries overall, I mean, they have been coming down in Europe and U.S., you'll be able to grow that business. Just wondering, how do you see that part of your business progressing into 2025? I mean, do you continue to see growth, or has the increased uncertainty had any impact on that business in terms of volumes?
The increasing uncertainty in theory, at least, should not be impacting service business as much because the service business should be driven by the utilization rate of the cranes. This is, of course, valid both for industrial as well as ports. Regarding modernizations, maybe that kind of an impact could be. I think that regarding the service business, the question and the sort of source of potential uncertainty is more in relation to what you also said is the declining utilization rates. They have been going down both in EU as well as in the U.S., particularly in EU, and our business has been holding well. Probably we have been taking market share there. The long-term question for us is that if this kind of macro environment should continue, what would be the order intake then?
Because if cranes are being used less, how would it be impacting us? We haven't been communicating anything specific on that one, but I think that would be the question. Now, of course, when we are talking about the demand outlook, we are talking about the industrial segment. Of course, we are referring to the service as well. This comment doesn't change anything we have in the demand outlook, but it is a longer-term question, of course, regarding the service business.
Thanks, Teo.
All right. Thank you.
You need to be a little bit shorter with your answers, Teo, so we can take all the questions.
I was already thinking that when you say that, yes.
Now given the time restrictions, Tom, let's take one last question from you. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, Teo and Kiira. In spare parts, of course, it's very, very important that you don't start losing market share to pirate parts in the U.S. when you are forced to hike prices. I would just like to hear what risks you see about this. Secondly, let's forget about this six-month uncertainty when Trump is going crazy. What do you really believe? I mean, do you hear that a lot of companies in the auto industry, other industries are now kind of asking plans to build the U.S. factories? Or do you see some concrete action? I mean, will we see what Trump wants to happen?
Yeah. On the first part of the question, you are completely right that we should avoid a kind of a situation that customers have incentive to look for pirate parts or third-party parts. I think that we are fairly well secured from that one because of the technology that we possess, because of the IPRs that we have, and obviously also because of the relatively short series of spare parts. It is not necessarily very, let's say, financially viable for just anybody to start, let's say, producing spare parts for Konecranes equipment, for instance. Of course, at the same time, it means that we will need to play with the market rules so that we cannot excessively increase the prices unless we can provide the value added to the customer.
The tariffs are a different thing so that we will need to increase, of course, in line with the tariffs, but so will most other people as well. It does not necessarily on a short-term basis, it does not necessarily change the competitive situation that much. To the question of the, let's say, overall market sentiment regarding the U.S., it may very well be that part of the good, let's say, good order intake, at least in comparison to the macro data. It may be as a result of some of the customers maybe accepting a little bit, let's say, lower utilization rate for their assets in general because they want to make sure that they have capacities in the places where capacity is needed. This could be, for example, in the U.S. as well.
Because even though we say that we have taken market share, there may be other reasons as well why our order intake has fared better than the overall macro data. This accepting lower utilization rate than in the history, I have to emphasize that this is speculation. We do not really know. I mean, it is very, very difficult to find factual data on this one, but this may be one sort of reason in addition to taking market share why order intake has been doing well in equipment despite macro. This, of course, does not work very well regarding the service because the demand would be more, let's say, utilization related. Having taken market share is probably a valid sort of reason there.
What I'm really thinking is let's take Volkswagen as an example. I don't expect you to comment single customers. I mean, Trump really will force them to open production in the U.S. Do you see any kind of signals of these kind of things being planned? You know that you get quotations for unusually large projects in the U.S. or so, or is it just that everyone has just been waiting and sitting so far and hope that all these tariffs will be canceled?
We have been seeing, let's say, over a longer period of time, we have been seeing some kind of re-industrialization of the U.S. in the way that, let's say, segments that have not been maybe too active over the recent past have started to become active again. This may be as a result of, let's say, nearshoring or friendshoring or whatever. When it comes to the tariff discussion in particular, I think that that is such, let's say, recent past that we would not see concrete examples of that one yet in our quotations because we would not be the first guys to whom the quotations would come. That would come later if it comes.
Thank you. We are already, hey, three minutes over time, but thank you for the active participation. Just so you remember, our silent period starts on Monday, and we will report our Q1 earnings on April 24. That is the next time when we will be hosting a call with you. Hopefully, many of you will be present to ask questions. I wish you all a great weekend. Enjoy the hopefully nice spring weather. Thanks. Bye.
Thank you very much for participating. Bye-bye.