Good afternoon,
everyone, and welcome to the presentation on Metsä Board's results for January/June 2024. My name is Mika Joukio, and I'm the CEO at Metsä Board. Here with me are our CFO, Henri Sederholm, and the Head of IR, Katri Sundström. So let's go through the presentation first and then take the questions. Let's start with the Q2 summary. The positive trend in paperboard demand that we already saw in the first quarter continued in the second. Our paperboard delivery volumes increased slightly from Q1, and average sales prices in both folding boxboard as well as white kraft liners remained stable. Market prices for pulp increased both in Europe and in China compared to the previous quarter. Especially in Europe, demand has been strong throughout the year. As always, the second quarter included more plant maintenance than the first, which is practically a maintenance-free quarter.
The improved business momentum was disrupted by unfortunate events. During March-April, the political strikes in Finland stopped raw material transport to the mills and closed the ports, thus preventing our customer deliveries. We had to shut all our mills in Finland for two to three weeks. This led to production losses of 50,000 tons in paperboards and 30,000 tons in BCTMP. In addition, the gas explosion at the Kemi bioproduct mill at the end of March stopped the integrated mill's pulp production for almost the whole quarter, which also impacted our kraftliner production. The financial impacts of these events were significant. We will return to this during the presentation. In Q1, we announced that we would not proceed with our planned folding boxboard investment in Kaskinen.
Instead, we will improve the efficiency of our current mills and accelerate our target to be fossil-free in production by the end of 2030. As part of these plans, we made an investment decision to renew the Simpele board machine. And finally, our sustainability work was recognized by EcoVadis as we once again achieved the platinum level in the rating with excellent scores. After several consecutive quarters of decline, our paperboard delivery volumes have finally trended upwards. In the second quarter, deliveries were 7% higher than in the same period last year and 3% higher than in the first quarter this year. Given the challenges we faced in the second quarter, I think this is a good development overall. During the first half, total deliveries were 741,000 tons, slightly higher than in the corresponding period last year, but still below capacity levels. Demand has been boosted by customer restocking.
The strengthening of general consumer product demand has been somewhat slower than expected, as consumers' purchasing power continues to be negatively impacted by high living costs and persistently high interest rates. Here is the paperboard sales split by region and product. Overall, volumes were fairly similar to the corresponding period last year. In March, a bridge collapsed in Baltimore, U.S., where our main North American warehouse is located. The good news is that we managed to reroute our deliveries, and our customer deliveries were hardly affected. The explosion at the Metsä Fibre's Kemi bioproduct mill also affected our kraftliner production. However, we managed to start the production of kraftliner with dried pulp and at a lower than normal production level quite quickly after the accident. The impacts on our delivery volumes were rather limited, but the negative impact on production costs was remarkable.
Market pulp delivery volumes increased clearly compared to the corresponding period last year. Metsä Fibre's delivery volumes were limited by the long shutdown in Kemi. In Europe, the demand for market pulp has clearly increased due to the higher operating rates of paper and paperboard producers. The improved market situation has also been reflected in European market pulp prices, which have experienced a sharp upward trend. In China, buying activity has been lower as pulp demand has been limited by the shutdowns in paperboard and paper production. During the first half, the supply in long fiber pulp was reduced for several reasons. The Finnish political strikes, global logistics bottlenecks, several plant maintenance works among pulp producers, and the long shutdown at Metsä Fibre Kemi mill. And now for the key sustainability figures. First, safety.
Our TRIF 2.6 has showed a clear improvement from last year, but has still not reached the overall target, which is, of course, zero accidents. The share of certified wood fiber was at 92%, which is above our target of over 90%. Fossil-based CO2 emissions decreased slightly compared to the corresponding period last year. Last year, production curtailments led to an unsteady production, which increased emissions. Energy efficiency and water use are still lagging behind the targets. This also reflects the impacts from last year when we had to adjust our production to meet demand. Now I will hand over to Henri to present the financials.
Thank you, Mika, and good afternoon. Let's start with the top line. In Q2, sales amounted to EUR 510 million, which was slightly higher than in the same period last year. In January/June, sales were EUR 994 million, 4% down from the corresponding period last year. The main contributor was lower paperboard sales prices. The operating result in the second quarter was in red due to the unfortunate one-off events we've already mentioned. In the review period, the operating result was at EUR 31 million, or 3.1% of sales. And now let's take a closer look at the items that affected the result. First, we look at April/June compared to the same quarter last year, starting with the positives. Both paperboard and market pulp volumes increased. In addition, market pulp prices were higher than in the same quarter last year. FX also had a small positive impact on results.
Total costs remained fairly stable. Chemical and energy costs decreased, but wood and logistics costs increased. And now the negatives, where lower sales prices of folding boxboard had the major impact. Sales of carbon emission allowances were some EUR 10 million lower. The negative impact on results from the political strikes in Finland was around EUR 15 million. From the Kemi mill explosion, it was around EUR 40 million. These include the impacts from Metsä Fibre's results share. And finally, the results share from Metsä Fibre in Metsä Board's operating result was EUR 13 million negative. Now the comparison for the January-June review period. Profitability was supported by lower variable costs. Chemical and energy costs especially decreased. The total cost deflation, excluding pulp costs, was around 3% compared to the first half of last year.
Delivery volumes of market pulp and paperboard increased, and FX also had a positive impact on results. The main negative contributor was again the lower sales price of folding boxboard. In addition, the sale of unused emission allowances was clearly less than a year ago. The combined negative impact from strikes and the explosion, including the impact from Metsä Fibre's result share, was around EUR 65 million. The result share for Metsä Fibre was also clearly negative at minus EUR 18 million. And in addition, the strikes and the explosion, Metsä Fibre's profitability was burdened by the lower sales price of market pulp, increased wood costs, and higher depreciation. In the second quarter, the comparable return on capital employed was close to zero. For the whole review period, January/June, it was at 2.9%. Rolling 12 months was at 1.9%.
These are very low percentages and clearly below our target of over 12%. Capital employed at the end of the period totaled EUR 2.4 billion. Low profitability combined with increased working capital kept cash flows negative. During the first half of the year, the operating cash flow was around EUR 17 million negative and free cash flow around EUR 65 million negative. It's noteworthy that in the corresponding period last year, cash flow was supported by production adjustment measures to prevent an increase in inventory levels. In addition, cash flow this year included a dividend from Metsä Fibre of only EUR 10 million versus last year's EUR 83 million. Now let's look at the financial position. As we see here, our leverage has risen sharply during 2024. At the end of June, we were at 2.2, which is still below our maximum target level of less than 2.5.
The main contributor here is the poor development of EBITDA during the last 12 months. Since the beginning of this year, our net debt has increased by EUR 150 million, mainly due to poor cash flow, including an increase in net working capital of EUR 100 million and dividend payments of close to EUR 90 million. However, it's fair to assume that once the profit level normalizes, leverage will also improve. Now I'll hand back over to Mika.
Thanks, Henri. So let's look at investments. Before turning to ongoing and future investments, let's recall two major investments we completed last year at Husum and Kemi. We are now focusing on making full use of these investments and the additional capacity they are bringing: 200,000 tons of folding boxboard and 40,000 tons of white kraft liner. This will further strengthen our leading position in our main markets, Europe and North America. However, the gas explosion at the Metsä Fibre's bioproduct mill's evaporation plant in March may somewhat delay our target of having Kemi's increased kraft liner capacity fully available on the market next year. The evaporator units have now been renovated, but there will be another long shutdown in Q2 next year when the new evaporator units will be installed.
During the installation, which is expected to last 2 months, we will utilize the same special arrangements that we did during the renovation works to keep production running and ensure our customer deliveries. Our annual investments are temporarily more moderate before decisions are taken on planned new investments. During the first half of the year, our total investments were EUR 53 million. Total investments this year will be lower than last year. We have slightly lowered our previous estimate due to the transfer of some ongoing or completed investment payments to next year. Now for our upcoming and ongoing investments. In April, we decided to renew Simpele's paperboard machine. This is the first part of a broader investment program planned for the Simpele mill over the next 10 years.
The investment will improve the product quality, I mean, and performance of Simpele's folding boxboard, which is mainly used in food and pharma packaging. It will slightly increase the mill's annual capacity and improve production efficiency. With new technology, we can replace the use of fossil fuels in paperboard production, which in turn will take us closer to our 2030 fossil-free target. The estimated completion is in the second half of next year, and the value of the investment is expected to be EUR 60 million. We are also planning other investments at our current mills, which will support our strategy to grow in fiber-based packaging materials and renew our industrial operations. The next steps in Simpele will be the renewals of the paperboard finishing area and mechanical pulp production, as well as a new power plant.
At the Kyrö Board Mill, we will launch a program to improve the performance of the current barrier board and expand its end-use areas. In Husum, the second phase of pulp mill renewal will include a new pulp drying machine. I should remind you that we completed the first phase of the renewal in 2022 with the startup of the new recovery boiler and turbine. Finally, in Husum, we have started a program for new products on the current white kraft liner production line, board machine number 2. The aim is to find innovative solutions for the growing food and food service packaging segment. Now for the near-term outlook. The solid demand situation for fresh fiber paperboards is expected to continue in the third quarter. Overall demand for consumer products is determined by consumers' purchasing power and their general purchasing behavior.
We expect our paperboard delivery volumes to increase slightly from Q2 and average sale prices to remain stable. Total costs, excluding pulp, are expected to remain stable. However, there will be more plant maintenance in the third quarter than in the second, with an estimated negative result impact of around EUR 10 million. For softwood pulp, we expect to see stable demand in Europe and North America, but in China, the demand continues to be weak. Also, FX will have a negative impact on Q3 results. Regarding the losses caused by the explosion at the Kemi bioproduct mill, the claim settlement process with the insurance consortium has been initiated and is ongoing. We will keep you updated on this in our interim reports and in separate releases if necessary. We expect our Q3 operating result to improve from Q2.
To summarize, the paperboard market has picked up from last year's very low levels. However, the strengthening of overall consumer product demand has been somewhat slower than expected, as consumers' purchasing power continues to be negatively impacted by higher living costs and persistently high interest rates. The positive market momentum was interrupted by unfortunate events that had significant negative impacts on our first-half results and especially on the second quarter results. The good thing is that these are now mainly behind us, and we can fully focus on growth with our customers by utilizing the recently increased capacity in high-quality fresh fiber paperboards. We will also continue to implement our strategy to grow in fiber-based packaging materials and to renew our industrial operations. We have announced plans for new investments at our current mills.
With these investments, we are improving our competitiveness, accelerating our target of being fully fossil-free in production, and developing future products to replace plastics. We will keep you updated with both our ongoing and upcoming investments as soon as plans are finalized. And with that, we end our presentation and are now ready for your questions. Thank you very much.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Robin Santavirta from Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon and hello everybody. Now, can I ask about the outlook? You expect paperboard delivery volumes to increase slightly in Q3, Q1, Q2. But also, you state that the increase that we have seen recently has been driven partly by restocking in the supply chain. Is it now so that you expect restocking in the supply chain to continue in Q3, or do you expect the underlying demand to improve? And regarding paperboard, another question I have is related to pricing. You expect prices to remain roughly unchanged Q3, QoQ. So does that mean that there's no price increases in container board, for example, for you guys, or in pricing in the U.S.? So all paperboard grays with the same price Q3 versus Q2 is your expectation. Is that correct? So those two, thanks.
Okay, Mika, here. Starting from the prices, yes, your assumption is right. We estimate that the prices will remain fairly stable during Q3 versus Q2. You know that a big share of our folding boxboard prices or deals are annual deals, and of course, that plays a certain role here. But that is our assumption at the moment. Then concerning this restocking and consumer behavior, yeah, our understanding is that the restocking is about to come to an end, not necessarily fully, but anyway, it's not as strong as it was in the beginning of the year. And then the kind of recovery of the demand is a bit slower than we originally estimated. But having said that, still, our estimation is that the volumes will be higher in Q3 compared to Q2.
Of course, these strikes play a certain role there in Q2, but anyway, we had a nice growth in Q2 compared to Q1, and our estimation for Q3 is also to grow.
I understand, thanks. Can I ask, is there a difference between the demand situation of paperboards overall in Europe versus what you see in North America?
North America is slightly stronger, which has been the case also, I mean, if not for several years, but at least the last two, three years.
All right, I understand. Then final question from my side is regarding your costs. I was a bit surprised to see you guys for unchanged or flat costs in Q3, QoQ . I can see wood costs have gone up. I know there's a bit of a lag in the P&L sort of impact, but still, I was expecting for cost overall to go up QoQ , in Q3, and now you guys are flat. Could you just separate a little bit what is going on with wood costs, what is going on with other key input costs at this stage?
Okay, yes, of course. So Henri will take this.
Yeah, so as we guided, flat cost QoQ so there are different elements there. So we still expect that our wood costs that we are booking at the mills will go up. On the other hand, some elements like chemicals are likely to come down a bit, but the kind of overall net impact being close to flat position.
All right. And one more, if I may, and it's related to the insurance payment. Should we expect that to be booked already this year related to the Kemi explosion? And could you give some guidelines about what percentage of the EUR 40 million that could be recovered?
Okay, Henri will take this also.
Yeah, so the process is ongoing, and we can't confirm an exact timetable on that. It is quite possible that we will get at least part of the compensation during this year, but cannot confirm exact timing at this time. Of course, it's good to remember that it's both Metsä Board and then also Metsä Fibre who are claiming this. We'll keep you informed when we know more exactly, but now it's proceeding as we expect.
All right, thank you very much.
The next question comes from Joni Sandvall from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the presentation, Joni Sandvall from Nordea. Maybe one question related to Kemi pulp mill and your kraftliner operations there. Can you run with your desired capacity now until the installation of new evaporation units there?
Yeah, very simple answer. Yes, we can.
Okay, that's clear. And then for the CapEx guidance, you lowered it for 2024 and said that there is some timing shift for 2025. So is it correct to assume now that in 2025 we will see higher CapEx needs?
Well, it's too early to say or give guidance on 2025 CapEx. That depends also on projects that will be decided later on. But what we wanted to confirm is that this year will be lower than earlier guided, and there will be a shift to 2025 of some tens of millions EUR.
Okay, okay. Then maybe last one from my side on the working capital. It's increased now with the... So how should we view the situation now going into H2? Should we still see an increase in the working capital?
Well, the net working capital has obviously reflected the higher activity level of production and deliveries as well. So we have seen not so much inventory increase, but receivables have been increasing, also the payables, but to less extent. Typically, there's a seasonal pattern so that the first half we'll see more accumulation of net working capital, and there will be less or even some release on the second half. But let's see, of course, depends on the activity level, which we obviously hope to see improve. But typically, there will be less accumulation of net working capital on the second half.
Okay, okay, that's clear. Maybe one follow-up then still on the order book situation. When looking now into Q3, you are guiding for slightly higher delivery volumes. So could you give any indications how order flows have moved during the Q2?
Yeah, at the kind of, let's say, in the beginning of the year, the order books were slightly, or order inflows were slightly stronger than what we have seen now during, I mean, let's say in May and June. But no remarkable changes, but still something. But still, we believe that the volume deliveries will be higher in Q3. But we are not running full. That's clear.
Yeah, yeah, thanks. Clear. That's all from me. Thanks.
The next question comes from Johannes Grunselius from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.
Hello everyone, it's
Johannes here. I have two questions. My first one is on your pulp business. I mean, because of the Kemi, basically, situation in March and affecting Q2, it's a little bit difficult to analyze the Q2 period. But could you give us some help there, please, on how you see volumes and costs? Especially volumes would be helpful if you could give comments on Metsä Fibre and perhaps also on your own business, Metsä Board's expected pulp volumes for Q3, sorry.
Okay, Mika here. So yes, the pulp market and demand in Europe as well as in North America, we estimate that the demand will be quite stable in Q3 compared to Q2. But then the situation in China is worse. There we see that the demand is not as strong. I mean, then concerning our deliveries, Metsä Fibre and Metsä Board, we need to understand that in Q2, due to this explosion at Kemi, then Metsä Board, so to say, helped Metsä Fibre in deliveries, especially to China. And that then resulted in good volumes for Metsä Board, which is not a typical situation because Metsä Fibre, Kemi was down. But now the situation is normalized, and then that will mean that obviously, probably the volumes will be lower in Q3 compared to Q2.
Yeah, you mean Metsä Board, right? If I understood it.
Metsä Board.
Yeah. Because I looked at Metsä Fibre's volumes and production and deliveries, it's like 600 or so for Q2, which is a very, very low number. I mean, the lowest I've seen, and it's of course explained by the incident in Kemi. It would just be helpful if you can indicate what kind of volume uplift we should expect from that Q2 base if you expect an uplift, of course.
It's very difficult to estimate. It's very difficult to estimate. Of course, now when Kemi is up and running, that will have a certain role, but I wouldn't give any estimation on this.
Okay, okay. And on how you read the pulp market, I mean, like many of your peers, more cautious on China, and of course we've seen negative news stuff from China in the statistics. But have you seen sort of incremental, more negative stuff in China, or is it more a general feeling, or could you share anything if you have seen anything sort of tangible in China?
We have seen that paperboard and paper production in China is lower as it was, for example, in the beginning of the year. That's a clear thing.
Okay, okay, very clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Linus Larsson from SEB. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good day to everyone. Just coming back to the CapEx question previously, and I understand if you don't want to give a very detailed or specific number to 2025, but if you on a maybe general note could give some kind of framework for how to think around CapEx going forward. We're coming from 3 heavy CapEx years, and now you're bringing down CapEx a bit for 2024. Compared to 2024, what's the reference going forward? Some of the investments that you are doing at your paperboard mills will take place over a very extended period of time. So how should we think around the rough levels of total CapEx beyond 2024, please?
Okay, Henri will take this.
Yeah, so I'd like to refer to the ongoing and planned investment slide that Mika presented. So we have these elements that have partly been decided when it comes to Simpele as EUR 60 million investment there, which will realize mostly next year, some part already this year. Kyrö Board Mill investment hasn't been decided yet. And also what comes to the new projects in Husum, the renewal of pulp mill, and then the BM2 kind of research on what to do with that one. So those will be quite decisive on the future CapEx levels. So I won't be able to give any exact guidance on that one. It depends on the timing of these investments and if they are decided or not. So very difficult to say. We'll be giving some guidance on 2025 a bit later this year. So just hope you bear with us.
Okay, understand. What's the current maintenance CapEx level? What's the updated number on current CapEx, please?
Yeah, it remains at EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million per year.
Great. And then regarding Kemi, you already said on the call that you are now able to run the linerboard mill fully. What to expect in 2025? I know you have this big stop coming up at the pulp mill. What kind of impact should we be expecting from the pulp mill repairs and the linerboard production in 2025?
Yeah, so I mean, if and when these evaporators will be renewed, then it takes roughly two months. And during that time, when pulp mill is down, now we have learned how to produce white kraft liner by utilizing the dry pulp and then some special arrangements concerning the energy arrangements. So our estimation is that we are able to produce during that shutdown, but of course then the production costs will be higher due to these obvious reasons.
Right. And if you compare with.
Capacity is pretty close to full capacity. Not 100%, but let's say somewhere around 80, 80, 90% during that time.
Right, right. And if you were to put it into perspective compared with the impact that we now saw in the second quarter, I understand the market can take various turns before we're there, but do you have any rough idea if we were to just give any kind of magnitude to what to expect?
Yes, as you said, I mean, it's too early to say because we do not know what kind of market situation we have and how much we are able to then produce in advance, I mean, before the shutdown and increase the inventory level. But my wild guess is that the kind of impact won't be as high as this year. But as said, it's too early to say.
No, that's very helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Andrew Jones from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, James. Bigger picture question for me about the state of the market. I mean, obviously last year you were calling out the fact that there was pressure from Asian imports into some of your export markets, which was limiting your volumes then. I guess those machines in China have still been ramping up. That threat probably hasn't gone away. And if pulp prices fall as a lot of people are forecasting now, I guess the competitiveness of some of those mills that might buy some market pulp are probably improving. So do you see that as a looming threat to sort of come back or to see additional import pressure in the second half of the year?
Also, just big picture, what do you assess the industry operating rate in Europe and the U.S. right now for the—I mean, not just for yourselves, but for the industry as a whole? Thank you.
Yeah, this year we have seen increasing volumes from Asia, especially from China to the markets like Turkey, Russia, Middle East. So volumes are on the run rate is higher than last year, for example. And I think there is no reason to believe that that situation would change remarkably. So our estimation is that they continue to sell to these markets also and also to Latin America markets also in the second half of this year.
Where do you think industry operating rates are in both Europe and the U.S. now? On that point that you made, if import pressure is still going up, your volumes have gone up too. It suggests that actually the market's probably recovered more than your volumes imply. I mean, what do you assess the year-on-year demand growth to be in paperboard, the first half versus this time last year?
Yeah, as I said already in the presentation and then in the previous questions, it's very difficult. We see that the restocking has come or just about to come to the end probably, and then the purchasing power of the consumers has not been as good as we in the beginning of the year estimated. So very difficult to say what kind of operating rates or growth figures we will see during this year. And then concerning the operating rates in the U.S., I don't want to speculate on those.
Do you have a ballpark number for Europe? Like, between, there's not obviously that many machines operating in Europe. I mean, where are we approximately?
I mean, of course it's quite easy to calculate if our kind of production capacity quarterly capacity is 500,000 tons. Now our deliveries were 371. So it's quite easy to calculate what kind of operating rate level we are talking about. It's around, let's say, 80% or something.
Do you think that's higher or lower than your peer group at the moment?
Difficult to say. I don't have the figures for you.
Yeah, okay.
Probably same level, could imagine, but difficult to say, at least in Europe.
Okay, thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
I think there is still one question. Am I right?
The next question comes from Andrew Jones from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, just one follow-up. I think in the past you've talked about sensitivity to the pulp price. With your net pulp position, including the share of Metsä Fibre by now, I mean, where would you assess the sensitivity to a certain move in the pulp price today?
Okay, Henri will take this.
Yeah, so 10% change in pulp price is roughly EUR 50 million on an annual basis.
Okay. Yeah, makes sense. Okay, that's clear. Thank you.
Okay, that was it. Thank you very much for your active participation, and I wish you a nice continuation of the summer. See you next time. Bye now.