Good afternoon and welcome to the presentation of Metsä Board's first quarter 2023 results. My name is Mika Joukio, and I'm the CEO at Metsä Board. With me here I have CFO Henri Sederholm and Head of IR Katri Sundström. Let's first go through the presentation, and we will then open the lines for your questions. I will start with Q1 in brief. Compared to the corresponding period in 2022, the average sales price of both folding boxboard and white kraftliner improved significantly. Compared to the previous quarter, the improvement was driven by price increases of annual contract customers in folding boxboard. We have also focused on serving our customers in Europe and North America. Total delivery volumes of paperboards decreased, being roughly 100,000 tons lower than in the comparison period.
I will return to the reasons for this in more detail in the next slide. Demand for market pulp has weakened. The weakening has been strong, stronger than we previously expected, mainly for this reason, we had to revise down our previously issued result guidance for Q1 in April. Due to the market softness, we have adjusted our production in paperboard, pulp, and BCTMP. Paperboard production volumes were roughly 25% lower, and pulp and CTMP volumes 20% lower than in the corresponding period last year. We will probably continue our adjustment measures going forward. The annual general meeting took place in the first quarter. The dividend for last year was confirmed in line with board's proposal, EUR 0.58 per share. Earlier this year, we updated our strategic 2030 sustainability targets.
The new targets highlight our commitment of safeguarding natural biodiversity, mitigating climate change, promoting the sustainable use of natural resources, healthy work, workplace communities, and ethical operations. Now for the paperboard sales and the overall demand situation. As the graph shows, paperboard delivery volumes have been declining for three quarters in a row. The weakened consumer purchasing power has reduced demand for consumer products, which in turn has been reflected in paperboard demand. In addition, destocking in the value chain is still reducing the delivery volumes. Right now, there are no signs of a significant turnaround. During the first quarter, the volumes were roughly 20% down from the comparison period and were roughly 10% down compared to the previous quarter. Here is the situation by region and by product.
As I already mentioned, we have focused our sales on our customers in our main market areas, Europe and North America. Of these, sales to North America have been slightly stronger than in Europe. For this reason, the sales volumes for South America, the Asia Pacific region, and Middle East Africa have significantly decreased. If we compare the paperboard grades, the decline has been steeper in white kraftliners than in folding boxboard. Now for market pulp. Metsä Board's market pulp deliveries fell sharply in the first quarter, totaling 83,000 tons. Our associated company, Metsä Fibre' pulp deliveries also decreased, totaling roughly 650,000 million tons. Market situation for pulp has clearly weakened. In Europe, the destocking has led to prolonged production shutdowns in paper and pulp and has thus reduced pulp demand.
In China, the economic recovery following the removal of tight COVID restrictions has not boosted demand for market pulp as expected. Softwood market pulp prices fell at the beginning of the year, and the decline has deepened in the second quarter. Before I let Henri move on to financials, let's have a recap on sustainability. In safety, we are developing in the right direction, although we still have room for improvement if we are to achieve our target of zero accidents. Low capacity utilization affected the production efficiency of our mills. Energy efficiency improvement is now somewhat flat compared to the base year 2018. The use of process water reduced, but more slowly compared to the corresponding period last year. We have tightened our 2030 target to reduce water use from 30 to 35%.
The end of Russian wood imports, combined with reduced wood imports from the Baltic countries, increased the share of certified wood fiber of our total wood supply. In the first quarter, we were at the level of 90%. Now I will hand over to Henri to open the financials.
Thank you, Mika, and good afternoon. Let's start with the top line. Low delivery volumes of both paperboard and pulp were reflected in sales, which were EUR 542 million. The operating result was EUR 89 million, down from last year's level, but also from the previous quarter. Regarding this, we had to issue a profit warning as we had previously expected the result to remain roughly at the level of Q4. Next, a closer look at the items that affected the result. First, quarter one versus quarter one last year. The operating result weakened by 27%. Higher sales prices for paperboards and market pulp more than offset the negative impact from declined volumes. On average, folding boxboard prices in euros improved by 20% and white kraftliner prices by 10%.
Profitability was also supported by a positive FX impact and the sale of unused emission allowances. Total costs, excluding pulp, increased by around 15% from last year. Q1 against the previous quarter, Q4. Average sales prices of paperboards improved, driven by price increases for annual contract customers in folding boxboard. kraftliner prices declined somewhat. Again, improved pricing offset the negative impact from reduced paperboard volumes. Profitability was also supported by positive FX impact, the sale of unused emission allowances, and no maintenance. Costs were slightly lower in energy chemicals and logistics, whereas wood costs increased. The Russian war in Ukraine has tightened the wood market in the Baltic Sea region, and this tightness is expected to continue in the coming years. However, the availability of pulpwood is currently in line with demand. The biggest negative impact was attributable to pulp.
Lower volumes weakened price levels and a lower result share from Metsä Fibre. In addition, the depreciation was some EUR 10 million higher than in Q4 due to the completion of the recovery boiler and turbine in Husum. The decline in profitability was also reflected in the comparable return on capital employed, which was 13.9% in the first quarter and 20.2% on a rolling 12 months basis. Capital employed totaled EUR 2.6 billion at the end of March, an increase of EUR 300 million from a year before. The operating cash flow in the first quarter was EUR 126 million, which includes a dividend from Metsä Fibre of EUR 83 million. The cash flow after investment was EUR 69 million.
Metsä Board's own dividend of EUR 206 million was paid in the second quarter in April. Finally, the financial position, which remained strong. Net debt was at EUR 9 million and leverage was at zero, so plenty of headroom to our targeted level of a maximum of 2.5. This position creates a solid platform for our ongoing and planned growth projects, about which Mika will now tell you more about. Back to you, Mika.
Thanks, Henri. Regarding the investments, there will be a lot of activity in the second half of this year. In Husum, we will increase our annual folding boxboard capacity by 200,000 tons. The investment shutdown is scheduled from late August to early October. The added capacity is expected to be full in the market by the end of 2025. After this investment, the total capacity of Husum's board machine 1 will be 600,000 tons per year. Investment value for this project is EUR 210 million. In Kemi, we will increase our white kraftliner capacity by 40,000 tons, after which the annual capacity of Kemi's kraftliner mill will be 465,000 tons.
The startup of new capacity is at the end of the third quarter, and full production capacity is expected to be reached during next year. The investment will also improve the mill's energy and water efficiency. Our initial investment value estimate was EUR 67 million, but due to the high cost inflation, among other things, it will probably end up higher. As a reminder, our associate company, Metsä Fibre, is starting up their new bioproduct mill in Kemi in the third quarter, replacing their old pulp mill. We are proceeding with our pre-engineering for new folding boxboard mill in Kaskinen, about which a possible investment decision can be made next year at the earliest.
In 2022, our total investments were EUR 304 million, and for this year, we expect them to be in the range of EUR 250 million-EUR 300 million. Maintenance CapEx will remain roughly at the level of last year, around EUR 50 million. On the right-hand side, you can see the indicative timetable for both our ongoing and planned investments. In addition to the planned new folding boxboard mill in Kaskinen, we are planning the Husum pulp mill renewal during this decade by replacing the mill's fibre lines. Investment values for these two projects will be specified in the context of possible investment decision. Now for the near-term outlook. Slower than expected economic growth, continued inflation, and weakening consumer demand are all creating uncertainty in the operating environment.
The visibility of paperboard sales development continues to remain weak. For Q2, we expect the paperboard delivery volumes and average sales prices to remain roughly at the level of Q1. The outlook for pulp remains weak. Demand is expected to remain muted with declining price levels. Upcoming maintenance shutdowns will reduce pulp supply somewhat. Total costs are expected to remain stable. There may be an increase in wood costs, but the corresponding decrease in other production costs. An increased maintenance compared to Q1 will burden the profitability. FX will have a positive impact in Q2 compared to the previous quarter and the corresponding period last year. With these assumptions, we expect our operating result in the second quarter to be weaker than in first quarter. To summarize, we have been able to defend our paperboard prices, which have compensated for the negative impact of declining volumes.
Nevertheless, uncertainty continues in our operating environment and driven by destocking in the value chain and weakened demand for consumer products. In the near term, the visibility of sales development will remain low. Quite how long is difficult to predict. It also depends on the global economic situation. We will continue to adjust our paperboard and pulp production if necessary to meet the current demand. Despite the short-term challenges, we are focusing on developing our business and investing in sustainable and profitable growth. The long-term demand drivers for sustainable packaging materials, which are increasingly replacing plastics, have not disappeared anywhere. The second half of this year will be busy as two of our ongoing investments will be completed and new capacity is being ramped up. With that, we end our presentation and are now ready for your questions. Thank you very much.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Linus Larsson from SEB. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Hello, everyone. My first question is on volumes you're guiding for roughly stable deliveries Q on Q in the second quarter. I wonder what your guidance might be on production as you've had two quarters in a row now with if I understand this right, lower production than shipments. How does that look in the second quarter, please?
Okay. Mika Joukio here. As I said, volumes in Q2 are expected to be stable compared in Q1, I mean, delivery volumes. Our intention is not to grow, I mean, increase our inventories. Production will be either at the level of deliveries or slightly lower.
Maybe some more destocking still?
Yeah. In our stocks, yes. That's true.
In your own-
Yes.
Exactly.
True.
Right. That leads me to my second question, looking at the value chain as a whole, do you have any observations to share as regards timing and so forth on this ongoing destocking process? How long it will go on, would be helpful.
Yeah. During the first quarter, I visited a lot of customers and we had good discussions. Kind of, the common word for these discussions were uncertainty. It very difficult to predict whether it will end or destocking will end in Q2, Q3, or even Q4. I mean, the visibility is really bad at the moment.
Mm-hmm. And do you see any differences when you compare various sub-segments, various geographies?
Not really, no.
Maybe, also final question. There's been a lot of focus on the weakening pulp markets. Do you provide any guidance for your, the contribution that you're expecting from Metsä Fibre in the, in the second compared to the first quarter?
Yeah. I don't have any precise figure for you, but the fact is that the market pulp demand and market pulp market altogether is weaker in Q2 than in Q1. Of course then the kind of impact to our result from Metsä Fibre will be lower in Q2 compared in Q1.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Robin Santavirta from Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you very much. Hello. The first question I have is related to the CO2 allowance sales. I guess you saw now in Q1, a similar amount in EUR that you did all year 2021, and almost as much as you did all year 2022. A big chunk now sold in Q1. What should we expect for Q2 for the rest of the year when it comes to CO2 allowance sales?
Okay. Henri will take this.
What we have stated earlier on is that we will sell unused emission allowances throughout the year, so that is still valid. We are not giving a sort of figure guidance on the quarterly sales, but it's a fair assumption to assume that we will continue to sell throughout the year. Our position on or balance at the moment is about 500,000 tons. That's why we have a fairly large balance at the moment.
Could it be as much as in Q1, the sales in Q2? Is that what you plan?
No comments on any numbers.
All right. All right. Thanks. I understand. Related to the maintaining shutdowns now in Q2, can you provide some details about the financial impact that you expect versus Q1? How does Q3 and Q4 look like?
Yeah. Comparing Q1, the negative impact is roughly EUR 10 million.
EUR 10 million?
Yep.
Good. Do you have a figure in mind, sort of ballpark Q3, and then Q4 as well?
Yeah. Yeah. Q3 is the biggest, roughly EUR 20 million. Yeah. Then Q4, again, another EUR 10.
All right. All right.
Comparing Q1.
Thanks.
Mm-hmm.
Compared to Q1. All right. All right. Yeah. Good. Thanks. Just a detail maybe for Henri Sederholm on the depreciation level. How was it? Was it so that there's a further increase now, as of Q2 or Q3? How should we model depreciation going forward?
Yeah. The full year depreciation for this year will be about EUR 20 million higher than last year. A little bit above EUR 100 million this year. EUR 105 is a good number to use.
All right. Good. Thank you for that detail. The final question I have is related to the startup of your growth investment, so in Kemi and in Husum in Q3. How should we expect, you know, that kind of shut, for example, does that mean that the deliveries, the paperboard deliveries sort of should remain sort of subpar in Q3? Any cost relate or startup cost related to those sort of ramp-ups in Q3, how should we think about those?
Yeah. In both cases, I mean, Husum and Kemi, we have, by purpose then increased our customer stocks, customer inventory. We don't expect any kind of hiccups concerning the deliveries during the shutdown period or then after the shutdown period. Of course, depending on how successful the startups are, that is the case.
Any costs sort of related to the startups?
What do you mean costs?
sort of subnormal production or, you know.
Yeah
startup cost, perhaps, you know, more employees or.
Uh
... other sort of fixed cost increasing related to the startup.
No, no. No. Of course. Of course, then in the beginning, then the production volumes are not necessarily at the targeted level. I mean, it takes time. It's ramp-up period. Concerning the fixed costs, no, we don't expect any kind of additional costs.
Yep. Thanks. Maybe if I can, one final one on pulp. Now it looks like pulp price in China are going steeply down. Looking at the wood cost, what are they? 50% higher in Finland and Sweden versus back a couple of years ago. Any plans to sort of curtail for Metsä Fibre production or for you guys to curtail pulp production as well now during the summer or early autumn if the prices head to the direction it now seems?
Yes. It's one possibility then to curtail production both in Metsä Board as well as then in Metsä Fibre depending on the demand, depending on the delivery situation, of course. Our intention is not to, not by purpose to increase our inventories too much.
Good. Thank you very much. Thanks. Bye.
The next question comes from Antti Koskivuori from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. One question from my side. You talk about paper prices in Q2 being flat, while if you look at the statistics, the white Kraftliner prices have come down through Q1. I was just wondering if you could elaborate a bit, the kind of assumptions behind that statement. Do you see, you know, folding boxboard prices going up, you know, compensating on lower Kraftliner prices? Or how do you, how do you see that developing?
Yeah. On the average, that is the case that the prices are expected to remain stable. Depending on the region, depending on the product, there might be kind of pluses and minuses. It's not fair to say that linerboard goes down and folding boxboard goes up. That is not the case in general. Based on our understanding and estimates, average prices will remain quite flat.
Kati, is there, if we look, you know, the spot prices of white kraftliners, should we expect... I mean, something that we see today happening in spot prices, should we expect that to have a kind of impact on your sales prices later on? I.e., is there a, you know, meaningful lag between prices that we see in the market and your delivery prices?
Yeah. Our intention-
I guess my quest- Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Our intention in paperboard is not to kind of sell spot. We prefer then production curtailments and keep the price levels as we have guided.
All right. Thank you so much.
Thanks.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Harri Taittonen from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon. Yeah, my colleagues have exhausted pretty much my list of questions, but maybe one on the some news on the U.S. box shipments seem to be picking up a little bit in April. I mean, is it? You have exposure, of course, to that market in your segment. Is there anything that you recognize on that side or any? Is it sort of some seasonal pickup, or have you recorded anything on that? Then on the carton board side, also, like how are the trade flows developing? Is a new feature that you get more import pressure from the Asian markets to Europe or to the common export markets? Is that something which is affecting the restoration of supply-demand balance?
Mm.
Those two questions, please.
concerning your first question, of course, there is seasonality.
Yeah.
Q-Q2 is normally better than Q1. I mean, if we then compare North America to Europe, North America, both in linerboard as well as in folding boxboard, is slightly better. The market situation but slightly better there or demand. That is the case. As far as the Chinese producers, you said Asian producers, but I said Chinese producers.
Yeah.
They are more active this, I mean, at the moment than, for example, a year ago, of course, driven by lower logistic costs. They are active in South America, for example, or some areas, some countries in Middle East, Africa, and so on, but not that much in the mainland or main markets of ours like North America and Continental Europe.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
They are more active now than they used to be.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. No, thanks for that.
The next question comes from Harri Taittonen from Nordea. Please go ahead. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad.
Okay. No further questions. I thank you all participants for your attendance to this, to this event and wish you good and nice continuation of the day and week. Of course, we wish excellent Vappu, so 1st of May. Thank you.