Good afternoon, welcome to the presentation of Metsä Board's first quarter results and strategy. My name is Katri Sundström. I'm responsible for investor relations here in Metsä Board, and will be hosting this event today. We have a live audience here today, which is a great pleasure, but obviously, a majority of our audience will be online, either now or then afterwards through the recording. Warm welcome to you all. Let me briefly walk you through today's agenda. We will first go through the Q1 results by CEO Esa Kaikkonen and CFO Anssi Tammilehto. After that, we will have the Q&A session. We will have a short five-minute break, and after that, we will move on to our strategy part, and then we will welcome more management team members here on stage.
Regarding the questions, you here on site, please wait until you will be handed a microphone before asking. Then, of course, the conference call and the open lines will be available both after the Q1 results as well as the strategy. Two Q&A parts. Of course, you can always submit questions using the chat function, and I will then present them here to the presenters. We are aiming to finish at 5:00 P.M. and continue an informal networking here on site. Here are the greetings from our legal department, now I will hand over to Esa and Anssi, please.
Thank you. Thank you, Katri, and welcome also on my behalf to the live audience and the online audience as well. Welcome to the results review of January-March 2026 Q1 . Let's say with one sentence, I would say that we're pleased about the actions that we have taken, but at the same time, the circumstances stay pretty, let's say, loaded on negative issues. I will be kind of going through those. The business environment, generally speaking, is not very supportive currently.
Of course, looking at the Q1 , new strategy, it, of course, sharpens our business focus and provides a solid platform for growth, future growth, and that's something that we have been preparing for a while with the board of directors, and now it's launched in 19th of March when we had an AGM at the same time. Having said that, I'm pleased about the actions that we have taken last year and also during the first quarter. You see that the transformation program is progressing well, with the 50% of the targeted EBITDA improvement achieved on a run rate basis already at this stage, remembering that it's a EUR 200 million program which is extending to the end of 2027 and the full impact then 2028 on annual counts.
Seasonally, we see that the higher activity levels at the beginning of year has impacted the working capital and cash flow, of course, tying more operative net working capital, but that was anticipated already, and we highlighted that in the annual report as well. Our focus on a daily basis is of course in a strategy execution, but at the same time, operational steering remains on the cashflows and continued tight capital discipline. Those are the themes of today. Looking at these actions a little bit more in details, funds flow targets, I will be discussing those more today in a latter part of the program.
Top line and profitability in Q1, those are the issues we are mainly covering today, in this result, review. They were burdened by the lower FBB volumes, predominantly to the U.S., and then adverse FX effects and lower paper board prices, and also lower contribution from Metsä Fibre. Having said this, at the same time, we have been doing some transformation actions that will be then run through by Anssi later on. Working capital we discussed already, and actions on this, we have said that Husum has been a headache last year. It remains to be a headache still in this year. Actions are focused on Husum side, mostly.
To support the commercial actions, we have been acquiring sheeting capacity in the Netherlands to allocate the resources and volumes to European market. Having said this, since Q3 2025, which was the bottom number in the EBITDA, we have been getting into the plus numbers, plus 17 in the Q1 . Having seen this, of course, we have to be happy on the actions that we have taken. At the same time, I said that the business environment is not too supportive currently. We see this Iran conflict that escalated in the first quarter, having a limited impact on Q1. No material disruptions to production or deliveries at that point of time.
At the same time, over time, we will see in higher oil and natural gas prices impacting negatively to our logistics and transportation, generally speaking, and also selected raw material that are based partly on the fossil energy. What we do, of course, from our part, in relative terms, to European, some of the European competition is like that, we are currently 90% energy self-sufficient through our Metsä Fibre ownership and also through our own Husum energy generation. In that sense, we are in a relative terms in a better position. Having said this, 93% of energy that we are using is actually fossil free, and that will be elaborated today more by Laura in her presentation.
This is, of course, supporting the competitiveness of ours, but at the same time we have to act swiftly in this situation. That means that we'll have to kind of open discussions with the customers as well regarding the price increases. If needed, we take the curtailments and first, further cost cutting as well, and we are seeking all the time new initiatives. That goes without saying. At top line, having said this, roughly EUR 90 million down, impacted by FBB volumes. Their U.S. was the biggest volume, negative volume contributor here. Those were, of course, due to the tariffs.
If I then slice it up a bit further, the food service board that we have been discussing earlier as well has been the half of that loss that we had in the U.S. market. Currently we see that the impact is mainly we actually experienced that in the last year during the three quarters. Now the demand is stabilizing on the FBB in the U.S., and we see that we can be competitive in some of these, let's say, packaging segments that we are aiming for. Then I will be handing over to Anssi. So please, Anssi.
Thank you, Esa. Happy to go through the bridge, the operating result bridge for Q1 year-over-year. We started from plus EUR 23 million in 2025. Obviously as was mentioned by Esa, the volume decrease was substantial compared to that. If you only take the net sales into account, minus EUR 90 million, but of course the result impact is also quite visible. Also, in the price side of things, both in the U.S. and in E.U., we came down compared to the previous year's corresponding period. Last but not least, the negative side on market in a way is the FX, where the U.S. dollar depreciation basically impacted our result, and this includes hedges also.
To the positive items, meaning the variable costs and fixed costs, where the transformation program is starting to be visible. Of course, we have a long way ahead of us. It's a 10-quarter program, but nevertheless, the three quarters that we now have behind us are showing promising results. Also what is good to note is that the variable cost is a net impact of both decreasing wood costs and also higher electricity costs. It was a quite cold winter this Q1 2026. In the fixed costs, the majority of those savings are from the personnel related actions taken on the second half of 2025. Metsä Fibre portion of the result that comes to the Metsä Board company is quite sizable also.
This is also related to the market circumstances as mentioned before. If we take then the bridge from Q4 to Q1, the situation is a bit different. We can see an uptick in the sales volumes, quite substantial one. Of course, the actual sales volumes are a bit less compared to this graph, but this includes also part of the cost absorption to the inventories as we are preparing for the maintenance season then in Q2, Q3, and Q4. Some decrease in the price, but also then taking into account the FX impact. As we said in our full year results that the EUR 20 million impact is expected to come from foreign exchange rates, including hedges, and this is now at minus EUR 19 million. Quite nicely in line with that.
The variable costs compared to Q4, we have lower maintenance activities now in Q1. In fixed costs point of view, same thing, less maintenance activities and also the Transformation program results visible. Metsä Fibre gaining from the high electricity costs, selling electricity to the market, and we get our share of that. In the other, the red column, that is last in the slide, consisting mostly of the insurance compensation that we had in Q4 related to the Kemi incident, leading us to EUR -11. If we take a closer look at the Transformation program, I think it's actually proceeding quite well. Happy to say that we exceeded already EUR 100 million run rate after Q1, very good work being done.
The target is to diligently pursue towards the end target, EUR 200 million by end of 2027, and we have full confidence that this will be met. We are on very good track there. Already EUR 30 million in the bottom line visible by end of Q1. This is about certain elements that we chase very rigorously, both related to mill level, so of course improving the efficiency there, optimizing the raw material base, but also buying less and buying more smart. Basically being better at negotiating and all the category related topics in our procurement have been really taken under scrutiny in this approach. Of course, logistics remains a key ingredient in all of this and the transportation modes and routes has been optimized all the time, and we will find also benefits from that going forward.
Maybe something to note is also you will hear today a bit more on the commercial side of things. Of course, the commercial excellence is a key role. How do we price? How do we categorize our customers? How do we provide services? Cash flow, very good job being done in second half of 2025 in freeing capital from the supply chain, finding different ways how to improve cash flow there. Of course, now in Q1, we are increasing our inventories, going to the maintenance period, this has a direct impact on the cash flow. We expect it to decrease in Q2, we will see a decline in our inventories. Of course, we have also in Q3 the Husum and Q4 Kemi turn.
maintenance shutdowns, which means that, we will see elevated levels of inventories also going forward. Towards the end of the year, we will free up capital, and this remins a high focus area for us all. What does this all mean from a balance sheet point of view? I think also relating to the different conflicts in the world and the Iran case, I think it's good to know that we have a solid balance sheet, and we are, of course, very happy about it. The high leverage ratio that can be seen in the graph is basically driven by low profitability. We have now the tools to improve profitability, and of course, if the market also turns, the situation is a bit better. We have over half a billion EUR of liquidity in the current arrangements.
Of course, this provides also comfort in us being able to execute on the strategy. There we go. Esa, back to the outlook.
Very good. Well, thank you. Very busy slide, but I will be highlighting some of the items because the operating environment, maybe those issues I will be stressing that have been changing ever since we last time saw each other. First of all, I was saying already that this U.S. demand, now we see that there's a 10% tariffs in some of the segments. We have been stabilizing the situation with the customer base, and I think that we will be heading back to the growth path gradually with some of the key customers.
Also, what I'm seeing here, in comparison to the last reports that we have had, so this oil and natural gas prices linked to Middle East conflict, and we have been then quantifying that to EUR 10 million roughly in Q2 as a negative impact, so that's the kind of a change from the earlier. Specific, the company specific outlook, as I stated already before, cash flow-based operational steering remains as a priority. The cash flows are strengthening in Q2 because of the fact that we will be then releasing capital from our operating net working capital. At the same time, we see higher activity in the market.
We are, of course, in second half, we said that we have an mill-specific shutdowns for maintenance purposes in Husum. Kemi is related also to a shutdown of our sister company's pulp mill in there. That will having an impact on how we build our inventories, that we can serve the customers still. As I said, volumes expected to increase in the paperboard side, and energy and wood costs expected to decline in comparison to the Q1. Fixed cost up due to the maintenance and higher employee costs as well and seasonal basis. This is a transformation program measures to further ease the cost structure, of course.
As said, further activities will be taken during the quarter as well. Those are the company specific. This is something that we have been keeping our deck for a while because of Husum being in the spotlight because of its losses last year and also in the first quarter. That's why we are saying that this is a focus area to us in a leadership team. Also explaining that there is a clear upside potential in this by these cost-saving initiatives under the program.
At the same time, we have been increasing the capability of Husum to deliver the European customer base as well with the new sheeted materials, through this sheeting hub in Netherlands. Those are the sensitivities that you see that it's pretty sensitive on a currency as well at these, the wood prices and market pulp price. You can see clearly that it's a big contributor of our profitability currently, either to better or worse. Then, what we have been going through the focus areas, I will not go through any more the summaries, and we jump into the Q&A soon.
Just saying that we launched also this new strategy, and Erja will be telling some of the issues on our selection on the customer side. I think that they are very clear in that sense and are already in my mind, paying off with what we have been doing, but in the future as well, is a great potential ahead of us. Husum, we discussed that. Middle East, we have said that we are preparing to do the commercial actions. Also, of course, we discussing with the suppliers on these cost increases and how they are can be mitigated in the supply chain. We are not accepting all the increases and announcements from the supplier side either.
We will be challenging them as well and renegotiating as much as possible to mitigate these cost pressures. Preparing the upcoming mill shutdowns. As I said, it will be tying the capital for the second half of the year. With these words, thank you for your attention. We will move on to the Q&A, and I think that we will taking first the questions from the live audience, if any, and then we jump into the online channel. If there are any questions from the audience, please.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad.
Joni Sandvall, Nordea. Sorry, in English. Sure. Joni Sandvall from Nordea. Maybe starting with the overall demand situation, have you seen any sequential changes on, you know, underlying demand? How you view the current supply demand in the European space with Husum volumes you have to put in the more in the European market than you have also Stora Enso ramping up the Stora. Any comments on that?
Yes, well, that's a topical issue. What we were saying also in the quarterly report was that the volume and, let's say, increased demand, that's in seasonal and restocking nature. We don't see any big change in the sentiment of the market as such. What we are seeing, of course, as I say in relative terms, I say that our competitiveness is pretty good, and I think that the potential of Husum to be replacing better or higher volumes in Europe is pretty good in comparison to the competition that we have in the market.
Having said this, you can anticipate that we will not be expecting any of, let's say, major boom on the demand or then in the prices either. The sentiment is staying pretty much the same.
Okay. I think you answered also the pricing question, but maybe going on the transformation progress, which has been relatively swift now in the early stages. Have you taken the easy wins now? Should we expect maybe, you know, moderation of the speed of the progress now going forward?
Thank you very much for the question. I think that always goes first that or let's say it this way, that there are no low-hanging fruits in this industry. I think that we have had a pretty disciplined way of working already earlier. Of course, it goes first that you take the lowest hanging fruits first, and then you will be kind of ending up with a more fragmented base of the initiatives as well, and more demanding. Now we are actually moving into the commercial excellence side of the things as well, and that requires a lot of ground work and field work with the customers in order then to kind of reshuffle the and optimize the mix and customer base.
Okay. A question on given Metsä Fibre is taking downtime in Jämsä, so how does this affect your CTMP production on that site?
We can actually. We have been testing it. We are running also Jämsä while the pulp mill is standing, and it's an efficient mill even without the pulp mill.
Okay. Maybe lastly on the downtimes for second half, at least on the report you were speaking about the extended maintenance there. Any more flavor of the, you know, duration of these maintenance breaks?
Well, I will not go into the details. They are in that sense ordinary. The only thing is that we will have a summer break in Husum, which is kind of a not the normal way of operating a mill, but that is saving costs and actually safeguarding the efficiencies of the mill better that we do it in this way. That means that we have to now build up the stock in Husum. Generally speaking, they are pretty normal.
Okay. I will give floor for others.
Antti Viljakainen from Inderes. I assume that Central European recycled grades producers are feeling the heat as well from rising energy prices, and they most likely need to do something on pricing front. My question is, do you see any room to take market share from recycled grades during the next 12 months with your FBB product?
Antti, can we do that way that we are coming back to this in the strategy session? It's a really good question because we are actually highlighting and casting some light on the how we see the target market, and that answers perfectly to your question. Erja heard that as well. We'll be answering to that later on.
Yeah, that would be great. Thank you.
Yes. Yeah.
More questions from the audience? Lines. Yes. One more.
Yeah. Joni Sandvall still. Maybe one follow-up question on the sequential impact of the wood pulpwood expenses. You are saying EUR 10 million headwind from the logistics and chemicals. Should we expect variable costs to decline going into Q2?
Yeah, I think the, as mentioned in the outlook and the guidance, I think the EUR 10 million is the impact that we get from the increasing, for example, logistics costs. We don't guide the variable costs per se, but I think the main elements are the impacts from the Iran conflict and the rising energy prices and chemical costs, but also the fact that we are progressing with the transformation program, which should lower the variable costs.
At the same time, we have to see how the different maintenance activities that we say that are gonna happen in Finland will impact the overall variable costs. I don't guide the variable costs per se, but I think it's a net impact from this.
Maybe continuing what you were saying is, like, that if you're looking just in statistics and seeing that the record high level of prices of wood was last summer.
Mm.
Q2 will for us year-on-year be a bit different in that respect, and you can anticipate that.
That's true.
... worse than the market.
Yeah, that's right.
Mm.
Are we having any questions on conference call?
There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Okay, well, we do have some questions here.
Mm-hmm
In chat box. Let's start with "Commodity container board prices are rising sharply at the moment. How are you seeing the price attempts in your niche virgin container board grades? Is it looking harder to achieve? "
I suppose the trend has been also if you look in the historical kind of a trend, it's like that. The first three cycles, recycled materials go up and then followed by the virgin side. I don't anticipate that there is any changes in the pattern as such. In that sense, I would anticipate that the prices will increase also in the virgin side. In the longer term, I will be also discussing this pricing logic a bit in my presentation. Minna Björkman is not today here, so Minna Björkman is a CLC member of ours responsible for the retail packaging, and she's on a sick leave. I will be covering her part. I will address this later on in my strategy presentation.
Good stuff. We have, "Do you expect to gain market share in European FBB market in coming quarters when shifting volumes from Husum more towards European market?" I think Erja will be covering this topic as well in her presentation, shall we leave that.
I can just briefly let's say, manage the expectations already. In that sense, of course, this time I said that our relative competitiveness is improving against the WLC in general terms, and FBB as well, those players that are actually exposed more on the energy side than we are. Of course, at this time, we are testing the market as well that, can we grow faster in there? We have an issue in Husum. That's why we are also in this situation, using this fully in our advantage.
On the costs, we see some upward move in pulpwood in Finland statistics recently. Are you seeing this as well, or at least at the end of the downward move? If so, when would the pulpwood tailwind stop in your P&L given lags?
Yeah, that lag is four to six months on the prices. I'm not kind of commenting on the forward-looking prices of wood either. That's in kind of a market to determine what will be the price of wood. At the same time, that is the lag that we have, four to six months.
Mm
... P&L.
You mentioned chemical and logistics, the EUR 10 million in Q2. Is there any lag effect? Should we expect more headwind into Q3? What grades can you increase prices to offset any future cost inflation?
You have been following very closely. We have been following.
Mm
of course, very closely.
Yeah
The Iran control tower, but maybe this is something that you could take, Anssi.
Yeah, that's it. Thanks for the question. I think it's a very good one. Of course, if we see the Iran conflict continuing and the high oil price and gas price continuing, it will of course have an impact on the operations of this company as well. We of course do our best to safeguard the margin and ensure profitability. This is what we would do anyway, but I think this puts a bit of speed into the machine in a way. If we continue to see 100, 110 even above oil prices EUR, USD per barrel, of course it has an impact on the relative cost side compared to, for example, last year. One thing I still note, Antti's question on the.
Sorry, your question on the variable cost, of course, electricity price remains a key ingredient in the variable costs as well as Q1 was quite elevated through that.
Mm
Q2 probably not as much.
Okay, we don't have any more questions, here, on chat, so just five-minute break, and we will be back soon. Don't go anywhere. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you all. Thank you all.
Break
Welcome back, everyone. Roughly one week ago, Metsä Board launched its new Lead the Pack strategy, and today we will have the first broader public presentation of it. Here's how we're gonna go it through. CEO Esa Kaikkonen will first start framing the strategy, explain about the backgrounds and also the key priorities of this strategy. Next, we will have Laura Remes, responsible for production and supply chain, and Laura will explain more that how our asset base and supply chain will help executing the strategy. Next we will move on to the business areas, starting with Erja Hyrsky, responsible for commercial operations, and she will be concentrating more on growth. How are we gonna grow in consumer packaging, and how are we increasing more value to our customers?
We move on to the retail packaging, where the focus is more on profitability through partnerships. Unfortunately, our SVP Containerboard, Minna Björkman, was unable to attend today. Esa Kaikkonen will do her share. Finally, CFO Anssi Tammilehto will go through the financial targets of the strategy and how this execution gonna translate into shareholder value. After all this, we will have a joint Q&A here. Again, questions from the audience are welcomed. Also we have the conference call and open lines. Again, remember, you can submit questions via the chat throughout the whole event. Now, without any further ado, I hand over to Esa.
Thank you, Katri. Thank you very much, and welcome again to this session, live audience and also people online. Rather big headlining here, how to win in permanently changing world. I would maybe translate it to now how to win in a permanently changing packaging world. Maybe that's better. This is maybe too big covering by Metsä Board's strategy. Anyway, Metsä Board, as you all know, we are a part of Metsä Group. We have been looking at the, let's say, history of this company. We have been in the past 10 years, we have been expanding and actually building a focused and competitive industrial platform.
This is an strategy where we are about to leverage these investments also going forward, and seeing that Metsä Group really has invested over EUR 6 billion, and we in that, been investing something like little bit less than EUR 2 billion to enlarge our capacity to make it more competitive, make it fossil free. Laura is explaining how it's all affecting to our numbers and performance on this, like climate, from climate perspective. Going through very briefly, the current sales, roughly amounting to EUR 1.8 billion. Emerging markets 15%, Europe being the main market, with the 60% and Americas 25%, based on the last year's numbers. Those are the capacity numbers that we have in here.
We have been earlier basing our story on being the biggest and with the capacity and the leader based on the capacity that we have, but I think that in this world, it's a bit changing. I think that the leadership has to be assumed from different kind of actions than just building the capacity. We have to be closer to the customers. We have to move on in the value chain, being more relevant to our key customers, and that's the way to assume the leadership position in the future. This is something that is also explaining today, or my team is explaining, that we are really in the target market of premium paper packaging market, and that's the aim where we are aiming at.
We are not, kind of, selling everything to everyone, but we are targeting to the premium brand segments. This is something that you have to take into account throughout the whole presentation. We are secured, I was explaining already earlier, on the energy side, but at the same time, through this sustainable, sustainably managed forests of our ultimate owners of Metsä Group. We are well secured by the wood supply as well, which is actually giving, in this changing world, also a competitive edge in my mind. I'm moving on. In 2025, when we saw that what is happening with our profitability, we moved on and started to implement the transformation program that we have been discussing quite a bit.
Working capital management also released some EUR 300 million of cash from our operative working capital. We discontinued the investment program, and then we renewed already commercial strategy last year. We have taking all the actions. At the same time, we have been closing some of these capacities that we have in end of the life cycle. Tako mill was permanently closed in the mid last year. We have been improving, and those we have been explaining pretty well and seeing that this, with all of these actions that we have done, we have turned this EBIT back to the black numbers. We are happy about the development.
Of course, we have miles to go to be a profitable and less cyclical business with a bit less cyclical business model, but I will come back to the details is a bit later. This was, this is something that the headline of this, my presentation, was pointing out that the world is really changing fast. You have all heard about that the world is turning to be more transactional going forward, and it is. It is, of course, impacting to us very significantly how we are also perceiving our position in the market. This is something to understand that the supply chains will be more fragmented.
The also, these geographical, let's say, nuances that we have had in the business, they come much more important that we are serving those customers that are actually appreciating our value proposition going forward, not that we would be serving all of the customers globally that we have been doing earlier. So we have to be very selective when we go out from our core markets, so we have to be growing with the key customers. This transactional world has been, of course, resulting that we have seen a high wood cost, when the border of Finland with Russia closed. We had a severe impact on the wood costs in the Nordic countries.
We have lost rather significant volumes in Russia as well on the sales side. At the same time, we have seen lately these tariffs impacting negatively to our growth efforts in U.S. All of this I don't see that this will be going or vanishing or evaporating anytime soon. This will be remaining for quite some time. This looking at the historical perspective, I would say that these de-escalation is pretty far away still. While the situation and the world is turbulent, we need a map, of course, strategy is our map.
Having said this, the DNA of the company, the culture of the company is also very, very important when we are building the strategy. These are. I have been actually elaborating this earlier as well with you, saying that we really have, even though that we have had to actually cut significantly our employee base and our, let's say, human resources in the last year or so, we still have very committed and highly skilled personnel, and that's a starting point on everything that we do. Even there are big machines and shiny machines, we need people. People in Metsä Board, they are committed, and they are very, very skilled in what they do. That is, of course, having a great positive impact to our future.
We have an long-term customer relationships and really good customer base with a really good selection of key customers as well that we can build the value proposition with. There are a lot of things that we can still safeguard, and I will get back to this a little bit later. There is a lot of value in the supply chain that we can actually squeeze out together with working closely and being close to the customers. We can really squeeze out a lot of value in my mind. I was referring earlier to the investments that we have had.
Based on the investments that we have, we have done, we have an paperboard expertise, based on the recent investments as really good, let's say, sustainability performance as well with the unique value chain. No one else has this value chain that I was referring already, that we have a resource base which is close to our mills and in the supply chain, where we can really safeguard the and retain the supply in all circumstances while we have this resource base on the fibers and also affordable energy. Those are the basis for being competitive. Then, why I'm saying that the
I believe really in this, let's say, business, the packaging business, the fiber-based packaging, and I think that all of the relevant, let's say, arguments that you need, are in this slide. In Europe, we just carried with the Pro Carton, the association of the carton producers in Europe, consumer survey this year, and 85% of the consumers in Europe, they prefer paperboard over plastics. There is an growing demand for a new plastic-free packaging solutions, and that is exactly what we are providing them with the future.
This is something that, I'm sure that, these pictures that people have seen in the schools and young generations have seen in the schools, that there is a microplastics everything, everywhere, and you have been, actually, overloaded all of these concerns. That has an impact on the market, which we see clearly on these consumer surveys as well. We have a Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation as well advancing, in August, taking the effect, and that drives shift to fiber-based and recyclable packaging. We have an all packaging that has to be recyclable by 2030, and you see that the. If you compare the plastics, and now again, I'm referring to the target market that we will be explaining later on.
If you see the rigid plastic market, that will be suffering mostly on this one because there will be some bans even introduced, and then there are, let's say, recycling obligations that are very difficult to actually fulfill because of the fact that the plastics are circulating only in Europe in the amount of 40% roughly, while the fiber-based packaging is actually circulating in the packaging or the recyclability loops with the recyclable rate by 80%. That's really much better performance. Thus, we see that the, for instance, major brand owners covering 20% of the plastic packaging commits already to cut the use of plastics.
We have seen like, Nestlé has informed that already in 2019 that they are investing. The packaging solutions have been actually indicating that they have been investing 50 people in Switzerland just to study the packaging solutions in order to be compliant, in order to be efficient, in order to be future-proof for the consumers. I think it's a good, kind of a, let's say, argument for us to pursue our goals of being the, providing those packaging solutions that these brand owners don't have to think about the packaging. It's our task to think about the packaging, not the, not those brand owners that are their, let's say, core business is somewhere else. This is our ambition.
First, of course, and foremost is an immediate profitability turnaround, and that is on the way already, with a transformation towards a premium packaging solution company. It already started, let's say, 2025, and it continues 2026, and profitability turnaround and Husum in there is our core of our transformation, of course. Later on, and I will come back to this at the end of my presentation, at the end of the session, that we become a premium packaging solution company, being a leading partner for premium consumer brand packaging, and that's our aim. This is everything that I covered on the, on the strategy, how we are doing things, and this is where we play as well. Consumer packaging, we will cover this 56% of our business.
We are targeting organic growth and inorganic growth as well. Retail packaging, we are improving the profitability with the value creation through partnerships. We are not aiming to go in the value chain higher. We want to be a partner with the existing containerboard companies and those that are manufacturing those packages for their customers. Market pulp, we are having currently on high exposure and that is also resulting a cyclical business model that we have. Our cash flows goes up and down pretty much with the pulp market, and this is something that we want to decrease this volatility and stable our cash flows and decrease the exposure of market pulp.
For a strategy which is then explained more by my team, we will also follow with the market and with the capital markets also the development of this strategy through these K-KPIs and strategic KPIs that we have been indicating here. This is a first call, there will be a follow-up of our progress in a strategy front. Now I went a bit over with my time, so but I will be squeezing that later on because I have a second opportunity still today. Laura, please.
Thank you, Esa. Nice to meet you all. Laura Remes, responsible of production and supply chain. I will discuss here now our well-invested assets and our supply, agile supply model for our customers. We have very strong fundamentals in place. Our organization, my organization, is focusing on these two strategy execution pillars: safe and streamline. Everything starts with the safety first culture, and that is a measure which also tells about the top level production and world-class production. We have made a very good progress in safety, and we continue to put focus on the safety first culture. We continue to be the forerunner in sustainability, and the premium quality, what we want to produce, will increase added value for our customers.
In streamline execution, the key is really in profitability turnaround, which has been discussed here a few times. Could the cost savings, efficiency is the core in our production and supply and logistics. Continuous improvements is our mindset overall. We have invested over EUR 1 billion over the five past years. In addition to that, as Esa mentioned, Metsä Fibre has invested EUR 2.4 million into Kemi and Äänekoski mills. That will also, additional to our EUR 1 billion investment, will also support our energy efficiency, raw material efficiency and improve in that way also our profitability.
Going forward, our plan is to have a tight CapEx allocation, where our target is that we will keep our investments below EUR 100 million in annual level, both maintenance investments as well as strategic investments. Future investments will be selective and targeted with focus on energy efficiency and overall operational efficiency. We have minimal fossil fuel exposure, which in this world situation reduces the volatility and operational risk. 93% of Metsä Board's energy use is fossil-free. Here you can see the line, which is Paris Agreement alignment, aligned 1.5 degrees reference level. Ever since 2019, we have already reduced 79% of our emissions, Scope One and Two. The target for us has been -52% by end of 2030.
We are well ahead of this agreement, and we are very proud of that. In the current situation, as mentioned many times, that the Iran crisis and the increasing oil prices and all that will support our competitiveness going forward. This is a picture where I try to illustrate our operational, continuous operational efforts, continuous operational excellence. Our paperboard production footprint, as we know, is in Finland and Sweden, so close to our raw material wood and we have this high energy self-sufficiency. Going forward, we will start measuring more and more our OEE in production, so that's the key metric for us, OEE.
We have still some room to improve in OEE, and we have also calculated that that will have a clear impact on our profitability when we go forward and improve our OEE. In supply, the key measure is on time in full, OTIF measure, and that's what the customers really value. We have directly asked that, and that's the measure what we also take in order to be customer-centric also in our supply model. Earlier this year, we announced the sheeting investment in the Netherlands, as also described already today, and that will improve our business position clearly in Europe.
With this very fast sheeting, we sent the reels from our operations in Finland and Sweden especially now to Central Europe, and there we can sheet the reels very fast and modify them to our customers. That has been already started, and we have delivered the first reels to our customers or sheets to our customers. If we have a look on the U.S., our supply model, we have a supply as a service for our customers, and that has been very highly valued by our customers. Our model is very reliable and fast. With this kind of model what we have in place, we can play, we are as a local player for our customers.
We are in this kind of circumstances in the world, we can still be a reliable supplier, and that's our strength in that market. This is a traditional way of looking competitiveness, industry competitiveness. We are well-positioned here. The bubbles are the mills in FBBs, so Folding Boxboard machines and then WLC machines in Europe. This is showing the capacity and then the age, technical age. However, how we see this traditional way is that as mentioned many times, we have well and well-invested, well-maintained assets. Technical age becomes less relevant. Our assets are well-positioned here.
What we can notice here also, these red bubbles, is that industry capacity has been also declined with especially now in the WLC. Around 700,000 tons of WLC capacity has been closed in Europe. As we know, these are the machines, these are the mills which are quite heavily run by the fossil fuels, and they will also, going forward, face the pressure of the cost increases. This brings us a very good position in Europe to take a lead here. We also have closed the Tako mill, I said, and as we know, last year, so there's also our Tako mill red bubbles.
While this perspective is informative, we see product portfolio, competitiveness and the premium quality as much more critical factor going forward. So this is the more relevant view in our perspective, and this is also the more relevant view for customers. Our offering is not commodities. They are specialized, differentiated brands. This picture illustrates our Folding Boxboard business with the promotion, which is measured by the brightness of the product, so the printing quality, the look of the product. Then we have another axis here, the protection, which is measured normally with the stiffness of the product. How well we are able to protect the prime product, which the packaging is doing. Our production units have differentiated technical capabilities and also quality characteristics.
Of course, we want to maintain some flexibility between the lines and between the products, or between the mills, the multi-mill concept is not our core strategy. We want to deliver exactly the needs, what the end users need, what the customers need, and we are also making those specifications to our lines. The flexibility to some extent is needed in a volatile world when some unexpected occasions happen. As a result here, we see quite loyal, or very loyal customer base who really value this characteristic of our products. Just to summarize this, in this spectrum, we hold very strong position in carton board.
Our products can often substitute, for example, this WLC, which is now facing pretty high cost pressure and is struggling in Europe. As well as we can substitute SBS products. Where does that come from is that we can do, we can be seen as light-weighted, and our material efficiency more or less, and also our carbon footprint because of this lightweight thing is much stronger than in these competing products. That leads to that one that making reverse substitution is difficult, but we can substitute these other grades because of the promotion and protection premium. I will now move or give the welcome, Erja Hyrsky now to talk more about the growth. Welcome, Erja.
Thank you, Laura. Thank you. I am Erja Hyrsky, and I'm heading the Commercial Operations. Over the next minutes, I will walk you through on how we're positioning our consumer packaging business for growth. Expanding our addressable market, sharpening our focus on the right segments and customers, increasing the value we create together with our partners. I will also share a concrete example to bring our strategy to life. From our four S strategy that Esa was introducing, I will be focusing on the scale pillar, which is all about growth through customer centricity. The total packaging market that Laura also illustrated by the previous example is very large.
Up until now, we have been competing mainly in FBB and FSB, which is roughly a 20 million ton market. With our new strategy, we are significantly expanding our target market. We see real share gaining potential, particularly from rigid plastics, where roughly 15% of the volumes could be replaced with the fiber-based solutions and from white lined chipboard, where our FBB grades offer clear performance advantages, especially in demanding end uses and especially in food packaging. This expanded market or addressable market represents a step change in our growth ambition. We have now defined our target end use segments being food service, and healthcare, where we see strong long-term structural growth potential. These segments, they benefit from trends in sustainability, regulation, and consumer preferences.
Esa was also bringing out earlier that 84% of European consumers, they prefer fiber-based packaging over plastics. Equally important, we have worked on our model to win with our key customers. This means deeper partnerships with our customers, joint innovation, and sharper commercial approach that links our capabilities directly to the strategic priorities of the brands that we serve. Looking from a regional perspective, Europe is our biggest market. It's accounting for 59% of our consumer packaging deliveries in 2025. As mentioned before, we are strengthening our European service capability now with concrete investments like Winschoten, our new sheeting hub, that really enables faster deliveries that we have been doing or we have been able to do before.
opens up also then the Husum mill in sheets to European market. We are also now working to open during the summer a new design studio in Milan, Italy, which will accelerate then the co-creation and packaging innovation together with our customers. Those are the big things for Europe. In the Americas, which is then 22% of our deliveries, we are really focused on growth in the premium segments. As Esa said, the U.S. market remains important despite of the current tariff headwinds for us. We continue to see demand for our high quality grades in food and healthcare in particular across the U.S. market.
The emerging markets, and by emerging markets, we mean APAC and Middle East and Africa. That region accounts 19% of our deliveries. Currently, we have quite modest market share in that area, so it opens significant growth potential with key customers in this region. We also have worked closely with our customers, really listening to them and then working to crystallize the value proposition that we have, especially around supply chain security, climate leadership, quality excellence, and then regulatory readiness and long-term business continuity. Those are the key of our value proposition. With a live case example, I will then illustrate how this come to life in practice. Mondelez International is a global leader in snacking.
They currently hold number one position globally in biscuits and number two position in chocolate. Brands like Oreo, Milka and Cadbury, it would be quite the big brands that we also recognize as well as all the other consumers around the world. This is the type of customer where our value proposition is most powerful. A global brand owner with ambitious sustainability targets, complex supply chain, and a need for packaging partner who can deliver both performance and innovation at scale. Now then to the concrete example of how our strategy then creates additional value to Mondelez.
For global brand owners like Mondelez, the key challenge today is building resilient, cost-efficient, and future-ready packaging solutions in this volatile environment, while at the same time progressing on Scope 3 emissions and material efficiency. This is exactly where we can add value. Our collaboration is focused on four scalable value drivers, which are here on the slide. First, supply chain security and resilience. Our integrated Nordic value chain and close joint planning together with the customer ensures reliable availability for launches and promotions. Second, CO2 and material reduction through safe lightweighting. Laura was also talking about the lightweighting. Our boards enable customers to reduce material use while maintaining performance, delivering cost, emissions, and efficiency benefits at the same time. Third, plastic reduction through innovation.
We support fiber-based alternatives and packaging design innovations that enable our customers move from plastic to fiber where suitable. Finally, fourth, the operational efficiency and waste reduction. The high-end consistent quality of our boards then support the stable converting and packaging operations, which then creates less waste. It's really critical that the boards run smoothly in the operation and the underlines that run really fast. For Mondelez, this collaboration supports three priorities simultaneously. First, improving Scope Three emissions, reducing material-related costs and regulatory exposure, and finally, securing a long-term supply reliability. For us, the takeaway is clear. We're not just selling board. We're delivering scalable value or value models that combine sustainability, cost efficiency, and resilience, which is then fully aligned with our Lead the Pack strategy.
Thank you for this, I will be handing over back to Esa.
Thank you, Erja. Thank you, Erja. Excellent presentation from my team so far. Let's see that how I will be then covering up, Minna. Do I look good today? Yes. Best regards to Minna. I know that you are there also following this maybe. Get well soon. This is a, again, growth and customer centricity scale part of this and measured by the NPS from the key customers and also the growth. The, our, retail packaging business is really niche and also aimed to be a, let's say a partner in brand packaging.
You see, on the left of this picture, you see a commodity containerboard, in comparison to this, application that you see on the right, you see also that there is a big difference in this. We are in the, you know, external layer of these products, what you see in there on the retail-ready, self-displays. This niche market that I'm explaining, we are a market leader, and we have been seen as a market leader, with our capacity of 700,000 tons roughly. The whole market in the containerboard is huge. It's 200 million tons altogether. Out of that, the premium white kraftliner niche market, this premium segment, is 4.5 million.
You take our capacity currently, so that explains our position currently. We have two good assets in Husum, PM2, and then Kemi paper board mill that is delivering to these markets. The driver in here is that, of course, the brands I was maybe referring to this earlier as well, but the brands as such, I think that you see that there is a polarization in the world in many places, like that you have in the politics left and right. There is no one in the middle. You see it also in here that you have a high value brands and then low value brands, and there is nothing in the middle.
where we come into the picture, and we are aiming, of course, to this high-end segment with the value brands. This is how we see that the brands in the shelves and also seeing that you have a discounters and club stores that are actually offering this space for marketing in this retail-ready shelf displays and retail-ready packaging, generally speaking. That's an excellent, let's say, marketing space for the brands, and that's why they use it fully in the growing segments. We see that there is a faster growth in this linerboards on the premium segment than in the commodity grades, and there is much fierce competition in this commodity segment.
Currently, we see in Europe steady growth at 1% and structurally higher growth in the U.S. because of the club store concepts that are growing pretty steadily in the U.S. market. This is where we come into play and this market of ours in WKL is predominantly in the U.S. I have this very, very briefly, but this is our concept as well. Our customers have been also asking many times that whether we are moving to be a packaging solution partner in here. No, we are not. We want to see the converters as a strategic partners and go through them.
Of course, we have to be closer to the brand owners as well, explaining the value of this, let's say, marketing surfaces that are in the displays, and the impact of that when you are turning into the coated materials, the appearance is totally different. I've been touring around quite a bit of, let's say, retailers myself in the U.S. and in Europe as well. You really can see the difference between the coated material and uncoated material. The appearance is much better, when you are speaking of a brand packaging. We go through the brand owners and retail.
We are of course, in a place where we want to, kind of build the demand, together, pull, from the market, based on the performance, and through that also higher margins because of course, we have to leverage this better, visual appearance as well and better, let's say, sustainability results of our products as well. Our aim is to scale through, fully dedicated, white top kraftliner production, which is really focused after our recent investments in Kemi as well.
Now I took my time, let's say, a little bit, that I was spending a bit too much earlier, but now I hand over to Anssi that he will then walking through the, let's say, profitability and transformation as a whole. Welcome, Anssi, again.
Thank you. Quite nicely put so far. I think it's time to look at the financials and how do we create value with this strategy. First of all, a bit more than a month ago, we announced the new financial targets. Some of them are old and some of them are new. We are starting with the one on the left-hand side. First of all, as mentioned by my colleagues, we are in a growth market. We have a target of over four percent revenue growth annually in consumer packaging segment. That is our target in this strategy period. Of course, we don't just want to sell for the sake of it, but we also need to make profit out of it. The middle part remains very crucial. It's a staged approach.
First we will reach, in a way, mid-layer. Over eight percent is the return on capital employed target for 2027, 2028, and then from 2029 onwards, up to over 12% in return of capital employed. The growth, the profitability, but also taking care of the balance sheet and having a balanced approach. We want to take our leverage net debt to EBITDA below 2.5. That is an existing target. The dividend policy, we haven't changed, but good to note also that our target is to distribute a dividend of at least 50% of the result for the financial period. This strategy is divided in two bits. It's obvious that we need to make a turnaround, and we need to make a turnaround quite swiftly.
As you can see, the profits are not nearly where we would like them to be, so we have a lot of work ahead of us. We have rolled up our sleeves and the work is being initiated and actually going quite nicely, as you can see. I've divided this turnaround now into five different buckets, where the first two rows have already been largely executed. Of course, they remain in high focus, but nevertheless good to make a notion on those anyways. First of all, last year we were able to reduce our working capital significantly and initiate quite strict capital discipline in the company. As I was mentioning already in the beginning, significant reduction in CapEx, but also in working capital. We will continue on that front.
Then of course, the personal costs has been a big contributor in this program, and of course we will keep that in mind. The three other ones, basically procurement. I said in the earnings section today that we are basically buying less and more smartly. This is exactly it. Obviously, it's a lot about the mid-level actions, the logistics, and also consolidation of the vendors. Whether it's IT or different services we buy, of course, we need to be able to manage our suppliers very well, and this is what we are on ongoing basis doing as we speak, actually. Very interesting stuff going on there.
At the site level, it's not only about optimizing the cost base, and of course we need to reduce the raw materials and increase the OEE where waste is, of course, an important element, but it's also about streamlining and simplifying. We have a lot of complexity built around our complex network in serving the customers. We want to see what is really crucial and focus on that. Of course, without forgetting the customers. I think it's actually creating value for the customer when we focus on the right things. Then of course, the commercial excellence as described by Erja. Really growing in the selected segments and optimizing the margins for the ones we want to deal with and improve the service level.
It goes without saying, our main market, Europe, North America, we want to be even stronger there. This is not only a program. Obviously, we need to turn this into a continuous improvement item. I think in our strategy, we are elaborating this in the two columns. We have Shift and Streamline. We want to change the way how do we operate, how do we take use of the new technology. Of course, we have embedded actions that include AI and new technology as mentioned, but also the Streamline topic. We need to be fostering a culture where we always improve and thrive for better performance and take a significant amount of costs out all the time. We need to be better, we need to run just in order to stay put.
I said go forward. I will go forward. I said this in the earnings section also. The transformation program is proceeding very well, and we will continue to execute the program diligently and professionally going forward. It's a 10-quarter marathon. We will have to find, of course, the last savings here and there. Of course, the beginning is a bit more easy, as mentioned, or nothing is easy, but it's a bit more straightforward. I think we have a very solid plan, and we will execute. If we take a bit of a look at the past at how have we allocated capital in the past five years. There has been strong operative cash flow. The market conditions have been favorable for us, at least to a large extent.
There hasn't been in a way, major incremental debt during those five years, but there has been a lot of investments. As was mentioned in the beginning, we've invested over EUR 1 billion within these five years in Metsä Board. Of course, these investments have been made to be competitive and to grow in selected markets. The leverage has been, of course, under 2.5 during those conditions, and there's been room to also invest and also to distribute dividends. Dividends also plays a major share in this capital allocation previously. If we take a look at the capital allocation, how we look at it during the strategy period. We will focus on the operative cash flow.
The transformation program and the improvement items are a proof of that. This is really to maximize cash flow. You can see the working capital graph in the left-hand side of the slide. Putting a lot of focus on working capital, and it's really something that we do with Laura, with Erja, with Minna, with all the colleagues and their teams. You can see the blue line showing the operative net working capital going down. We have quite an uptick on Q1. We will manage through that. Important to note is also that the turnover rate has been positive for us and we've been more efficient longer for going onwards from here.
I think the new operating model has to be efficient also, and this is something we pay a lot of attention. That's the operative cash flow. How do we bring cash in? We have invested a lot, as mentioned. Now we digest. As mentioned, the maintenance CapEx is only approximately EUR 50 million a year. That's in a way the committed CapEx. We haven't, of course, made decisions on maintenance going forward, but that's in a way roughly the order of magnitude that we need to keep the machines up and running in top-notch. Then we will make strategic investments if the returns meet at least the return on capital employed target going forward.
I think that's business case by business case. Of course, we have good opportunities here and there, we will then see how it goes. Then we will distribute dividends, of course, if the situation is improving from profitability point of view because our dividend is really to pay dividends based on the profits. If we look at the digesting mode where we are currently, I think the current financial base and funding structure actually supports that phase quite well. If we look at the liquidity, which is over half a billion EUR consisting of the RCF EUR 250 and then the other liquid assets and investments EUR 264, that's already a, I think, a good in a way baseline.
On top of that, we have the CP program over EUR 200 million and then undrawn credit facility from the group, which is already EUR 150, giving us lots of, in a way, room to maneuver if we needed to. From the debt side of things, the maturity is as follows. Basically in 2027 we have one bond out maturing in 2027 and then in 2031. If we look at the total shareholder value, how do we see things currently? If you look at the history from the left-hand side of the slide, of course, the history hasn't been good. We all know that. For certain reasons, and of course, decisions are made in time and the market hasn't been supporting in that sense.
If we look at the future, how do we see it? I think the platform is built. We don't need investments, apart from maintenance, as mentioned, and the selected investments, and we have a solid strategy to build on. I will now talk a bit about the, in a way, building blocks of how do we create value in the future. I think the bedrock is the cost savings in this company. As mentioned, that's already progressing quite nicely. If we take a look at the EUR 200 million transformation program, we have now met approximately EUR 100 million of the EBITDA improvement. Out of that, of course, costs play a huge role. That's the, in a way, beginning.
As mentioned, we are in a growth market, so four percent CAGR until the end of this Strategy Period. This will of course have an impact on our possibilities to grow, and this is our target to really capture the market opportunities. The Transformation Program really entails also Commercial Excellence Stream and also the streamlining and simplifying our operations, which is also one other building block that we can see creating value throughout the Strategy Period. If there would be tailwind from the market, that is of course something we cannot influence, including the wood costs. It is of course something that would impact this platform that we have now built in the past and continue to build in the Strategy Period. That concludes my part, and I think we are ready to take questions.
Up come everybody to the stage.
I believe it is you.
We take the joint Q&A. Maybe if we this time we can now first check that whether there are any questions online. Can you please open the conference call lines?
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time.
Okay. Clear. Any questions here in the audience?
Did you want to already get an answer? Do you want?
Yes, I think that I got, but I have some others as well. Market hasn't really grown during the last years in FBB side due to various reasons, but you are still keeping the growth rate expectations somewhat similar to history. How confident are you that these growth rate estimates will hold this time? If they don't, what do you need to change in your strategy execution?
That's a very good question. I think that we have been hammering this question quite a bit with the BOD as well, board of directors, and with the team as well. I think that this is something that with the new business model, we have to be really closer to the customers. We have to understand the customer, let's say, pains better. We have to understand the, let's say, the situation, what kind of solutions they are seeking, and then provide the solutions that would be fit for the purpose. This is something that we are really committed to do as well. We have to also create this market.
We have been discussing quite a bit on the sustainability statements. We have been discussing on the sustainability. We haven't been actually able to commercialize our commitments on the sustainability. We have to have a data, bulletproof data to our customers to show the value, the true value, what comes to the materials and what comes to the climate and what comes to the overall efficiency and sellability of these products as well. It's our task to create the business model.
With these, let's say, elements that we have been discussing today, which is actually, let's say growing the market as well for our materials, but packaging solutions generally speaking. We have been partly discussing as well that how committed we are. Of course, currently we have to sell the FBB and the mills full, that's for sure. At the same time, in longer term, looking at the packaging solutions, I think that we have to be open for other materials as well that are partly maybe even cannibalizing what we are doing currently, but at the same time growing and providing those solutions to the market. That's in a longer horizon. I'm sure. We are 100% committed to this strategy and 100% sure that we can, we can do this.
Okay. Secondly, regarding the Husum mill that was loss-making last year in Q1, you have, like, three production lines in Husum. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I assume that all of these three lines are loss-making. Which one of these lines is more difficult to turn first, to break even and, second at a sufficient profitability level?
Well, that's a really good question. In a way if I would have a crystal ball, I would be immediately answer it to you. It depends really on the market. Of course, all of these have different reasons for this, like pulp side. Pulp mill is in difficulties because what we see in the market that it's in decline currently. We have the wood situation, which is kind of burdening the profitability of our pulp. Pulp actually there is four business lines there. In a market pulp, there is hard wood and soft wood, both of them. PM2, which is a WKL and PM1, which is FBB. For other reasons, for different reasons, they are where they are.
The, let's say, the most important thing is that we get the volumes up, and that's we are committed to do, and that's where these, let's say, levers that I was talking, the sensitivities that we were discussing, actually leveraging the kind of a good profitability going forward. It has been actually providing rather handsome cash earlier years to this company. Selling Husum full is the most important thing that we have at the table currently.
Okay. Thank you.
Yes. Thanks. Joni Sandvall from Nordea. Maybe starting from the markets, European market, I know that, European producers have, you know, traditionally been using exports as a, you know, to balance the market situation. You were quite much speaking about trade barriers and the situation to hold. I mean, what needs to happen? Do you need the export markets where I think it's more Chinese volumes flowing on those, should something change before supply demand can, you know, to be more normal in Europe?
To balance. Of course, it has been for FBB producers and folded products producers important to have these emerging markets as well, and especially Middle East, Turkey have been the markets that we have been placing volumes. For us, the most important overseas market has been U.S., and it stays that way. Through these, let's say, brand owners that are then present elsewhere, that's our route to market. We are not seeking any, let's say, easy solutions here, and we have to really work with the existing brand owner customers to actually grow the market, which is healthier than it was earlier. It is not easy.
Okay. Maybe follow up on that. Have you seen any changes on, you know, demand for, let's say, security over the price, if you are thinking customers and you are speaking quite a lot of key customers? Do you need some changes in the customer base before you can, you know, start growing on the top line?
I don't think so. It is like that. We see in many customers, and I think that Erja could follow this as well, follow up with me later on. The fact is that if I'm looking at the customers and when we are discussing with the customers, the most important, let's say KPI that they are following is on time, in full. We are not measured by EUR per ton. We are measured by the on time, in full, that we are reliably delivering what we have been promising and what we have been agreeing. And that's the key customers.
With the key customers, I'm sure, and we have seen it as well, that many of these customers earlier they had in some of the, let's say, geographies, they had a global supplier base, and now we see a consolidation and more fragmented supplier base. In these markets where we are, let's say, present and in those places where we can really supply without the barriers, I think that we can have a better share of wallet from these key customers going forward based on our reliability. Maybe, Erja, you can take it from there if you have.
Yeah. I think from key customers' point of view.
Mm
That's exactly the point. I think the strength that, as I mentioned in the beginning, the long-standing strong customer relationships that we have. I've been touring quite a bit in different markets seeing different customers, and I've been super happy to see that and really proud of the team how well-established many of the relationships are. I might still add that we're always also looking for new opportunities.
Mm
whether it's about new customers, new brand owners, new converters, or even new markets.
Maybe question on the M&A front. I'm a bit surprised that you have it in the strategy. What are you lagging currently on, let's say, production or supply side?
Of course, in this situation where everybody's a bit suffering on different reasons, some are not competitive and some are seeing that the this partly supply-demand balance is having an impact on the demand. In that sense, on our side, it is something that we are looking for an opportunities in, in that if there are opening avenues for improved situation of the company and value creation, then we are taking, of course, those opportunities and elaborating whether these are actually creating a value for Metsä Board's owners. Excluding these kind of things in these kind of a turbulent times would be, I think, that it wouldn't be very wise. That's why we are a bit opening this avenue.
Lastly, maybe to Anssi about the 2027 bond. Are you currently expecting tapping on the bond market or how to deal with this?
Yeah, thanks. That is an excellent and topical question. We haven't made any decisions yet, but of course we are planning and preparing for that topic. No, nothing to add in that sense.
Okay, thanks.
In the meanwhile, I could take a couple questions here from the chat. Anssi, the first one, I would point to you. This is regarding the transformation program as well. Actually, two questions, I will put these together. First one is that what are the key risks that could prevent this 100 EBITDA improvement that we just reported run rate savings from fully translating into reported earnings? Then another question related to program was that what's your volume assumption behind the EUR 200 million EBITDA run rate?
Yeah, good questions. In the baseline, we have second half and first half . Second half in 2024 and first half in 2025. That's the baseline where we calculate everything. Of course, the volume is a bit different there, that creates a, in a way, difference into this world where we are currently. Of course, our volumes are lower, for example. This is something that we take into account in the execution of the program, and of course, we don't just, in a way, stop there. We need to find more opportunities. We have over 400 initiatives, and we are constantly seeking for more. We will reach the EUR 200 million target no matter what, and this is, of course, highly on the agenda, and I don't see any, in a way, huge risks.
Maybe I would highlight, however, the Iran case. Of course, we need to adjust here and there, and the turbulence in the market, namely the conflict in Middle East, of course, changes a bit how do we see things progressing. Of course, we have different mitigating actions, and I'm sure we can pull that off. Good question.
Absolutely, yes. Then quite many questions regarding U.S. and our FBB sales in there. Starting that how do our prices in FBB compare with SBS prices in U.S.? Has it changed over the recent years? How much of the Husum mill was exported before, and how much do you think that this will fall in the future as you react to the tariffs?
Yeah, I can first regarding these pricing issues and so forth. I think that in a price point-wise, SBS and FBB are a bit different because of the fact that the lightweight material that they are delivering there is differing from the cost base and from the performance point of view as well. In that sense, but generally speaking, of course, folded materials are in the trend-wise. They're following the SBS pricing as such, and we have seen that, I'm not speaking of a future prices again, but, I would say that it has been flattening this SBS prices, and thus our prices have been also pretty flat in recent times.
This is something that we have seen now that because of the U.S. SBS assets aging, we have seen some closures as well there. That actually improves the balance going forward. I'm sure again our target is to do let's say customer-specific and key customer working there. I said that we are heading to a growth path with the key customers going forward, and I'm sure that the prices will be set in a basis that they can grow. I can't say anything more.
Mm-hmm.
Absolutely.
Regarding to the question on Husum and how much is then for the Americas market, I think we have shared that before that Husum has been in particular important for the U.S. market, and that's why now Europe is a sheet market and we haven't had any capabilities in Husum to sell our paperboard in sheets. That's why we're all talking about the Winschoten sheeting hub because that opens up then the European market from Husum, which of course gives us then a leverage.
We will still continue delivering from Husum to U.S.
Absolutely.
Yeah.
For sure.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
As well as to the emerging markets.
Yes.
Full global, local, global approach from Husum.
Other questions as well related to that. Are you coming up against new SBS volumes from Sappi in the U.S.? How do you see them as competitors? What are your landed costs for FBB sales to the U.S. now, and how does that compare with the prices offered by SBS peers? I think that question is, let's say we are selling our value to based on the FBB, and we do our customer work only in that way. In that way, also comparing us to the SBS or hearing too much of SBS, that they don't actually hear too much.
When we are discussing with the customers, we are discussing about the, our value proposition, and clearly this, our lightweightening and sustainability story is resonating with the premium brands. Well, I can't say anything more regarding this. I don't kind of know what Sappi is doing, or that it would be off my matter.
I think competition is always good.
Yes.
It keeps us on the toes.
Mm
Developing, on our front.
Yes.
Mm.
Absolutely. What would you do if your US margins are negative for an extended period? What markets could take these volumes? Well, maybe I start again in a way saying that we have been in the market even with the worse situation with the U.S. dollar exchange rate, for instance, in a difficult situation when it comes to the energy crisis that happened in 2022, et cetera. In that sense, we have been there for decades, and I don't see that there would be anything that would change that in any way going forward. Actually, we are allocating more resources there as we speak and put an effort on growth path.
Mm.
Erja, maybe you can.
Yeah
Follow up there.
I think, it's also, it's all about the basics also.
Yeah.
Doing the customer work, continuing the long-standing work with the customers that we've have already served for quite many years. Focusing really on the premium premium brand owners and finding also new opportunities, which would be healthy opportunities for us going onwards. Those are probably couple of things I would.
Mm
lift up.
Okay. What is the magnitude of OEE improvement potential identified?
Mm.
How much of that can be realized without CapEx? This goes to Laura.
Yes.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you. Very good question. I can promise that that's the number what I look every single day for every single mill, every single line. We have promised to reveal the OEE numbers later on. At this point, we will not give them precisely, but if I have a look on now the OEE numbers, there is room to improve for sure. We have been internally calculating how much even one percentage point improvement means in a profitability. That's work what we are doing currently. Maybe some point we will reveal some numbers as well.
Mm-hmm.
Okay. One very short and very popular question here to the end. This is the last one, at least in here. Under what circumstances would you close another mill?
What an ending. In no circumstances.
Good ending. Any more questions here in the audience? Joni, please.
Maybe one question still. Given the tightening ETS market in Europe, and you have invested on lowering the CO2 emissions, could you open up a little bit if this is something that could, you know, open up a competitive advantage for you compared to, let's say, European competitors?
Well, maybe I go first.
Yeah, please do.
... and then you can follow it up. The fact is that the ETS1 ended for this year. This year we will not receive any free allocation as such. We have an old allocation of ETSs-
Yeah
We are selling them in the first quarter. We did it with the EUR 5 million, and we still can continue this year.
Mm.
Having said this, ETS is a highly political animal as we speak, and it's kind of on the table of the European Commission. It's really difficult to make any projections that how it all kind of unfolds in that sense. At the same time, we see of course clearly that while the competition, and generally speaking, European. If that holds, let's take that as a preassumption that all of these laws that are applicable, this ETS scheme, stays as they are. I think that it of course gives us an. No free allocation will be, or reallocation will be done.
In that sense, it would of course increase our, or improves our competitiveness against those that haven't been doing these reductions on the fossil energy. We have been really a forerunner in this industry for doing that. Of course, every CO2 actually emission, so that you have to buy, actually, kind of lowers profitability and competitiveness against us while we are kind of 93% of our energy is fossil-free. I think it covers it quite well.
Yeah
We have made the investment decisions, and this is one, in a way, element in those, calculations that we have taken into account. Difficult to speculate as you mentioned. Of course, we build our business cases around the facts and our own projections of the scheme future.
Thanks.
Okay. I think we're gonna conclude this Q&A session and before we're gonna end the whole event, we still take Esa's final closing remarks. At this point, I want to thank on my side, my behalf, for very good and active participation, excellent questions, and as always, we at Investor Relations are very happy to continue the dialogue. The next live event, what we will have, or webcast event will be beginning of August, when we will publish our half-year results. Now I will Esa to conclude the event.
Okay. Thank you, Katri. Thank you. Thank you for the live audience and the people online as well for paying good attention to this presentation. For the last slide, I wanted to just kind of show a bit and illustrate a bit the vision of ours going forward, being a leading partner for premium consumer brand packaging, and our purpose being packaging a positive future. Why is that? I think that makes all of my leadership teams to take in every day and come to the work and being enthusiastic on delivering what we have been promising. First of all, I was stating that earlier we were discussing on the topic that what is the leadership going forward.
Leadership is not based in the future on the capacity that you own. You have to own, and respect of the customers and be close to the customers. We were discussing on the future or the premium brands that there are big, let's say, polarization going on, that the premium brands will be even more premium going forward. You have a kind of other end is in low-value, value brands, and we are delivering for the premium consumer brand packaging, and that's our aim as per our vision. The leadership for us in the future means that we are a category leader, meaning that we know the packaging. Customers don't want to, don't need to actually invest to the packaging solutions.
We are the ones that know this best, and we have all the data that is available to have these proof points on the value as well going forward. Quality leader means that we will be providing the our brand owners with the transparency on the product data and clear evidence of the impact, the value impact that we were discussing as well. At the same time, we see great kind of opportunity on being a tech leader as well going forward. We have seen that some of these packaging solution platforms are collecting, the startups are collecting already quite good money on these packaging solutions in the markets and the only thing that they are lacking is the value chain data.
They already do pretty good graphic designs and also structural designs for the packaging, but they don't have that evidence on how the packaging is performing, what comes to the saleability, compostability, and recyclability of the packaging materials, and where to procure those. Our ecosystem, we really know all the players in the market, and we can pull all the kind of solutions that our customers are in need, and that can be done all in the tech basis. Currently, we have a system and service kind of offering that is providing the services to the customers when they want to design a new packaging for their products and secure the saleability. That's based on different kind of manual work and mock-ups, et cetera.
In the future, I'm pretty sure that can be done based on the data that we have at hand with the technologies that are of the future. With these words, our theme is to actually win in the market, be the leader in the market, and Lead the Pack going forward, and really according to the purpose, packaging a positive future. Thank you.