Stora Enso Oyj (HEL:STERV)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2018

Apr 27, 2018

Operator

Good day, welcome to the Q1 2018 Stora Enso earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ulla Paajanen, head of investor relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Ulla Paajanen
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Thank you, Steffi. Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to Stora Enso Q1 2018 conference call. I will hand it over now to our CEO, Karl-Henrik Sundström. Kalle, please go ahead.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you, Ulla. Let us start with the first slide. This is, as you know, a result that has been pre-announced already the 13th of April, when we went out with the pre-announcement. However, we will now go through some of the details we were not in the pre-announcement. First of all, it is a very good start and a very promising start of this year. Sales are up 3.3%, and if you exclude the divested Puumerkki, it's actually a growth of 4.5%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter with top-line growth, we came in with an operating EBIT of EUR 369 million, which is an increase by amazing 72% compared to the same period last year. EBIT margin was 14.3%. That is the highest quarter since 2001.

We had a strong operational performance, the profit improvement program that we announced in conjunction with Q4 announcement in 2017 is actually improved and is going into execution and is basically concluded. Now the savings we get to EUR 70 million compared to the previously announced EUR 60 million. EPS came in stronger, cash flow was stronger than last year, the balance sheet has continued to strengthen. Net debt to EBITDA is now 1.3 versus 1.9 a year ago. Operating return on capital employed for the third quarter in a row at 17.7%. We've been above 13% for three quarters in a row, this is the highest return on capital employed in a single quarter since 2000. The wood situation in the Nordics, tight but been managed after the mild winter and the extraordinary snowfall in the middle of Sweden.

If we go into the next slide, this is just the bigger picture of what later on Seppo will talk about, is about what happened in the first quarter compared to the year-ago quarter. First of all, we had a record EBIT in Consumer Board, driven by growth and strong operational performance. We have the fourth consecutive quarter of record sales and EBIT in Packaging Solutions. We have all-time high results in Biomaterials despite some headwinds. I will come back to that later on. We have the highest first quarter for Wood Products, and we have the highest EBIT margin in 10 years for Paper. As you can see in the graphs there, especially in the improvement areas of Consumer Board, basically one-third is coming from European mills, two-thirds is coming from Beihai.

In Packaging Solutions, about slightly more than EUR 20 million is coming from Varkaus kraftliner as well as China Packaging, and the rest coming from our testliner as well as a strong performance in the core units. When it comes to the Biomaterials, which is improving by 93%, we said here it gained some headwinds. The headwinds here are basically coming from that we've been running the pulp mills on a slightly lower capacity for the Nordic mills due to the tight wood situation, basically holding back about 30,000 tons of pulp production. We also, for the Latin American mills, had some issues with shipping dates, which is about 20,000. Coming back to the very positive development in Paper of a 64% improvement compared to a year-ago.

With that, I just want to highlight some of the important transformation steps that have been concluded in the first quarter of 2018. Baienfurt sheeting center in Germany has been sold. The Heinola Corrugated Plant has been shut down. We have also made a deal of selling of Rio Grande do Sul plantation. We believe that the transaction will be concluded during Q2. When it comes to new investments, as part of the consolidation of the corrugated business in Finland, we have opened up the new and expanded corrug unit in Imatra. The Eskilstuna environmental performance improvement investment is concluded, and we have started production in Hylte biocomposite. Seppo will mention some more about that when it comes into that part. Before handing over to Seppo, I just want to continue to raise the importance of our transformation.

As you can see in the results, improvement year-over-year means that the focus we have done in our investments and also the focus in our new product development is paying off with substantially accelerated profitable growth. We are today having 70% of the sales coming from the four growth divisions and over 80% of the profit. With that, I would like to hand over to Seppo.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Thank you, Kalle. I start by looking at some of the key figures for the quarter we are reporting today. First of all, sales line, top line up 3.3% year-over-year, EBITDA another quarter of growth. Operational EBIT up 72%, we are not only growing, but we're also improving profitability at the same time. Profitable growth continues. Operational EBIT margin at record high level of 14.3% and earnings per share up to EUR 0.35 a share from EUR 0.14 a share a year ago. Operational return on capital employed at 17.7%, clearly above the targeted 13% level. Cash flow from operations continues to improve at EUR 229 million. We also reduced net debt by almost half a billion euros compared to a year ago. That reduced net debt to last 12 months operational EBITDA to 1.3.

We were at 1.9 a year ago. Moving to our divisions, I start with Consumer Board, where record operational EBIT was reported, which was driven by strong growth and improved operational efficiency. Sales were up 6% and reached all-time high of EUR 646 million. Operational EBIT was up 49%, the record high Q1 of EUR 91 million. This is driven by Beihai mill ramp-up that continues successfully and strong operational performance, increasing the volumes at our European mills. Operational return on capital improved 18.5%, still slightly below the strategic target, but clear improvement compared to a year ago. Our Baienfurt sheeting center divestment was completed in January as announced earlier. Next comes Packaging Solutions division, where another record quarter is reported. It was actually 4th consecutive quarter with record high sales and profitability. Sales increased 15% to record high Q1 of EUR 333 million.

Thanks to favorable pricing environment as well as continued growth in our China packaging unit. Also, operational EBIT reached all-time high level of EUR 61 million. That is increase of 154% year-over-year. Operational return on capital at record high 27.7% compared to 11.1% a year ago. We finalized consolidation of corrugated packaging manufacturing in Finland and have created now Center of Excellence in Lahti. In connection with this project, we are now also permanently closed our corrugated plant in Heinola, but we continue fluting manufacturing there as earlier. Moving to our Biomaterials division. We are also reporting all-time high results despite the headwinds relating to wood sourcing situation in the Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden, as well as some negative foreign exchange impact mainly coming from US dollar. Sales were up 7%, operational EBIT 93%, reaching all-time high of EUR 102 million.

Operational return on capital also clearly above the targeted 15% level at 17.6%. We also completed during the quarter our environmental performance investment of EUR 60 million at the Skutskär mill. I'm very proud also to tell about the innovation award we have received for Lineo by Stora Enso, our lignin product that is a renewable replacement for oil-based phenolic materials. Next, looking at the Wood Products, where record high 1st quarter is reported. Their sales increased 4%, excluding the divested Puumerkki and the Baltic wood supply operations. Operational EBIT was up 32% to record high 1st quarter reported result of EUR 29 million and highest since 2007. At the Varkaus mill, LVL production ramp-up continues, and we have now reached EBITDA breakeven there. Ramp-up is expected to be completed in mid-2018.

In Sweden, we are proceeding as planned with the CLT investment in Gruvön, this investment is scheduled to begin production during the first quarter next year. We have also started production of biocomposite granulates at our Hylte mill in Sweden, commercialization is in process with several customers already. Moving to Paper division, where we are reporting highest first quarter EBIT margin in 10 years. Sales increased 3% to EUR 372 million and operational EBIT increased 64% to EUR 69 million. Cash flow after investing activities to sales ratio was 6.2%, thanks to increasing profitability and continued good working capital management. It is slightly below the targeted 7% level, but not far away. I will review the strategic targets where we can also see good progress. As you can see, a lot of the traffic lights are turning to green and yellow.

The red dot is on fixed cost to sales, where the targeted level is 20%. Positive thing there is that we are now moving the right direction from 25% level where we have been earlier, we are reporting 22.6%. That is a significant improvement compared to year ago when we were at 24.1%. Debt ratio is clearly below the strategic maximum levels and operational return on capital, like I mentioned earlier, at 17.7% compared to targeted 13%. Look at the divisions. Consumer Board slightly below the 20% targeted level at 18.5%. Packaging Solutions clearly above the targeted 20%. A great improvement compared to 11% level a year ago, so now at 27.7%. Also, Fibers division is now clearly above the targeted 15% level at 17.6%. Also there, significant improvement compared to a year ago when we were slightly below 8%.

Wood Products continued solid, steady performance and return on capital above 20% strategic target level. Paper at 6.2% cash flow after investing activities to sales ratio, slightly below the 7% targeted level. With that, I hand back to you, Kalle.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you very much, Seppo. Regarding the guidance for the second quarter of 2018. Sales are estimated to be similar to or slightly higher than the amount of EUR 2.579 million recorded in the first quarter of 2018. Operational EBIT is expected to be in line with or somewhat lower than the EUR 369 million recorded in the first quarter of 2018. The impact of annual maintenance shutdown is expected to be approximately EUR 40 million higher than in the first quarter of 2018. Nordic wood supply situation expected to continue to be tight. Impacts are expected to be at the same level or lower than in the first quarter, which was approximately EUR 10 million as we state in the report. These impacts are included in the above guidance. As you can see in the second quarter is a number of annual maintenance shutdown.

Beihai, Heinola, Varkaus, Enocell, and Oulu. Before going into the Q&A session, I just want to repeat some of the highlights. It is about accelerated profitable growth. Sales growth five consecutive quarters, a strong improvement in EBIT margin, prices and mix optimization combined with continued successful ramp up our strategic investments supported by improved and strong operational performance is part of the reason why we are getting to this level. We have a record high return on capital employed of 17.7%, the highest since 2000. Balance sheet continues to strengthen where we are having a net debt to EBITDA of 1.3x, an improvement by 0.6x versus the year ago period. We actually repaid in a rolling 12 months, EUR 485 million of net debt. This is a clear indication that we're moving from asset transformation to innovation and sales transformation.

Before going into the Q&A, I would like to remind you and welcome you to participate in our Capital Markets Day here in Helsinki, the 7th of November. With that, I hand over to Ulla to take care of the Q&A.

Ulla Paajanen
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Okay. Thank you, Kalle. Operator, please help us to start with the Q&A.

Operator

Certainly. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Please ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Once again, to ask a question at this time, please press star one. We will take now our first question from Mikael Jafs from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Mikael Jafs
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Hello. Good afternoon, everybody. Congratulations to a very good result, first of all. Secondly, I have two questions. One is around Packaging Solutions or the first one. Could you please elaborate a little bit on how you see this development where we can see that paper for recycling prices are coming down quite substantially. Is there a risk there for the testliner pricing and could it spread to kraftliner or is the market simply so strong with good demand? That would be the first question. The second one would be around wood pricing in Scandinavia. Some of your competitors have been telling us that they see wood prices starting to move up in especially Sweden. Do you see that situation also in Finland? Those are my two questions. Thank you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

First of all, if I look upon into the kraftliner, we see both improving demand year-over-year when it comes to kraftliner and testliner or RCP-based containerboard. We also see prices at the moment going into next quarter to be slightly higher. Over time, it will be an impact if RCP containerboard are falling down and those boards come down in price. It could affect. Remember, there is very limited supply of kraftliner, and the end users are basically a totally different, have to look more with food, and it's a global product, while RCP-based or testliner board are more of a regional. They travel about 1,000 kilometers.

Mikael Jafs
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

When it comes to the wood prices, yes, it's been a bit of price increase. We have seen it falling a bit. Can you hear me, Mikael?

Mikael Jafs
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, I can hear you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

When it comes to wood prices in Sweden, yes, there is some pressure upwards. We have to remember that the issue in the first quarter in Sweden, which on margin affected prices, was that there was so much snow, especially where we have our wood supply in the middle of Sweden. There was not enough with transportation. We had wood. That was the difference. In Finland, it was opposite. It was a very wet winter or mild winter. Here we also see the pressure on prices, but we are talking a couple of percentage points. That also affected it a bit. We see this tight wood situation going into Q2 as well. The effect we had in the first quarter was around EUR 10 million, and we believe it's EUR 10 million again, and that's included in our guidance.

Mikael Jafs
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Many thanks.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

It's going to take some time.

Mikael Jafs
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Many thank you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you for the congratulations.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we take now our next question from Lars Kjellberg from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. I just want to come back to the variance versus your original guidance for the quarter that we just got out of. You clearly exceeded that guidance. I just wanted to check with you what variables came in appreciably better than you had expected to drive that EUR 369 million operating profit?

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Yes. Thank you, Lars. It's Seppo here. I recall that you were a bit skeptical on our guidance. I guess we can say that we were happy that we were wrong, if I can say so. Looking at the difference, roughly half is coming from the more positive pricing environment in paper Packaging Solutions compared to what we expected. Another positive thing was that the mills were operationally running very well. Operational efficiencies were clearly better. That's roughly one third of the difference. The rest is then coming from somewhat higher volumes, especially Consumer Board business in Europe.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

To be very frank, Lars, as we're saying it, obviously we underestimated the pricing dynamics and especially for paper. Worked with paper for a long time, it's been a very unique quarter. We managed that extremely well because we probably read the situation in China and the impact pretty fast. We were fast on the board with the price increases, and they came in better than I anticipated. When you run a maintenance-free quarter, you usually get good operational performance, but not this good. We were a bit nervous. There was a lot of moving, especially in the packaging mills. The fall, too, if you get just a half a percentage or 1 percentage point higher OEE is huge. That was the effect.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Understood. With that said, can you sustain this sort of efficiency? Of course, now you're going into maintenance periods. How should we think about that efficiency ratio going forward? This was of course a very good quarter in all aspects, right? What sort of impact do you see? You essentially got maintenance the balance of the year every quarter. Is this as good as it gets from an efficiency standpoint? Of course, there are other potential drivers such as price and whatnot happens that can shift the numbers, right? In terms of efficiency, is this as good as it gets, in your view?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Obviously in our guidance, we are indicating, have also given the number of EUR 40 million in impact from the maintenance in the second quarter. Because when we talk about these annual shutdowns, it's pulp mills. Starting up the pulp mill after the annual shutdown is always a bit of a risk. That we know. That is a risk factor. It could be more, and hopefully we are getting better. If you look on the pricing side, I would say basically most prices are either stable or slightly higher, everything is stable or slightly higher. That's a positive. We have said that it's a tight wood situation and we are harvesting and trying to refill. We don't really know how wet the spring will be. That's the negative.

We think it's going to be like the first quarter. Now you understand the ups and downs.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

For sure. Just two more questions, if I may. The Rio Grande do Sul divestiture, what sort of value do you expect to capture there? Also if you can comment a bit on the Chinese market situation, because what we can read from the outside from the likes of RISI is that most things seems to be very quiet and slow demand in China. What we hear from companies active in China is the opposite. It's going to be interesting to hear your take on what is actually going on in China.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

When it comes to the Rio Grande do Sul, it's a cash consideration, EUR 33 million. We are selling it basically at the book value. In that, when we sell it, we have to back out what we call cumulative translation effects. What will be shown, it's a loss of EUR 25 million. This is an asset that we have not been able to utilize. It's in an area where we have no investments alternative. This is part of what we call cleaning out and to get a more focused asset structure.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Understood.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

When it comes to China, is that it seems like the rules that were basically implemented as of the 1st of March this year, they are sticking to it because we have various reports of very deep inspections in China on the purity of the imported recycling paper. There's been, according to our understanding, a number of rejects. What we see there on the demand side is that some production will cease, especially smaller mills. The demand for high quality virgin folding boxboard or more advanced boards like liquid, they continue to grow. That's what we see.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

You're not seeing the demand weakness at all in the ivory boards? No.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

No, not in the areas where we are addressing.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Understood. Very good. Thank you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you, Lars.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We now move on and take our next question from Robin Santavirta from Carnegie.

Robin Santavirta
Financial Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you. Regarding the new board machine in Beihai, obviously you said that you reached EBITDA break even in Q4 last year. Could you comment on the financial performance now in Q1? When do you expect that machine to reach EBIT break even?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

As we said, in conjunction with the Q4, we wanted to tell you when we reached a EBITDA break even. It's part of the optimization of the product portfolio. We are not disclosing, as you can see, separate profitability or income statement of that mill. The mill is proceeding according to plan, and it's ramping up, and it's qualifying more and more in high-quality boards, and it's according to that. As you can see, reaching 18.5% on Consumer Board on return on operating capital employed tells everybody that we are going in the right direction. I will not disclose because now it's part of the global product portfolio. We are exporting from Beihai Mill to Europe at the moment.

Robin Santavirta
Financial Analyst, Carnegie

I understand. Regarding plantations then in Beihai or in the region, Guangxi, what will you do with those? Are they contributing positively on the bottom line for the group at the moment, or negatively?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

We are in a process as a consequence of the negotiations we are having, that we are in a process of returning certain lands, because as we have said, we will not build the pulp mill. We need less plantation, only enough to secure for the CTMP pulp mill. Obviously you don't get returns over 20% of the plantation in isolation, so they are not contributing to the targeted level of Consumer Board. On there they are a drag.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

We continue to harvest and sell board to the local markets, and that is of course helping cash flow.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes.

Robin Santavirta
Financial Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, good. Thanks. Finally, in terms of the Biomaterials division, you mentioned you lost some volumes due to the Nordic harvesting problem. You also mentioned something about Latin America, so I assume Veracel and Montes del Plata, what is going on there? Is that sort of problem something that you carry with you for the future quarters?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

No. They are different problems. The 30,000 tons is that we took an active decision to run the mills slightly lower in order to not have the risk of running out of wood. It was very tight. The 20,000 tons is actually that we couldn't do revenue recognition because of delayed shipments out of the ports.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

It's basically just hit the month end.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

it's just timing issue.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes.

Robin Santavirta
Financial Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, thanks.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

I hope that was clear.

Robin Santavirta
Financial Analyst, Carnegie

Yes, very clear. Can you also comment on, you mentioned, I think in Q4 that you had some weak pricing contracts in the Biomaterials division, and that was sort of part of some contracts that you have made for longer term. What is the situation related to that now going forward?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

We still have some of that left, they are diminishing over time.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

See the decline I think you can also see it in the profitability development of the division.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes. We have some long-term contracts on fixed prices that look to be good at a certain point in time. Most of them we are out of. We still have some left, it's in a totally different dimension.

Robin Santavirta
Financial Analyst, Carnegie

All right. That is clear. Thank you.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one. If you would like to withdraw your question from the queue, please press star two. Now we move on and take a question from Kevin Hellegård from Goldman.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, guys. Good afternoon. I was just wondering if you could first talk a little bit about the paper markets. Prices have obviously been going up, which we can also see in this one Q results. Do you still think there's further margin expansion to come from the price-cost spreads, like ignoring maintenance cost impacts into the second quarter and third quarter? Have you achieved everything in the first quarter?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

No, I would say that if I'm getting you right, we have a big maintenance in paper for the second quarter.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

That's Oulu Mill. That's a big machine. Well, two big machines, actually, and a pulp mill. We see pricing for paper actually stable going into the next quarter.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. No, I was just trying to see. I understand the maintenance impact. I was just trying to say, ignoring that, you see prices more stable quarter on quarter?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

A lot of the contracts that we have now signed up, they are more than a quarter, half year.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. No, I was just trying to understand if you have achieved everything in one Q or it was coming with a lag.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

You have to understand what has happened in the market. It's been quite a lot of closures plus that recycled paper could not be used in a lot of the grades in China, which means that a lot of volumes have been actually going to China. Europe is exporting quite a bit. That's keeping-

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. No, exactly. That was why I was trying to understand if there's more positive momentum in paper prices.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

We see them stable. Obviously, everybody's working on it. We have got a number of comments coming in that some big newspapers and printers has actually less paper than they wanted because they thought it's going to be like usual and things. The dynamic has changed.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

I believe we will probably see demand decline continuing, but maybe not in the short.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, excellent. Could you give a rough split of the maintenance cost between divisions on a quarter-on-quarter basis?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

We give a totality. We do not give the split.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

If you look, Beihai is a fairly big mill, Beihai is a CTMP, not a chemical pulp mill. Heinola and Varkaus, they have chemical pulp mills, that will affect obviously the Packaging Solutions. Enocell is dissolving pulp obviously will have an impact. Oulu Mill is a big mill.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

You should know about the impact is also of lost revenues included.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. No. Okay. Thank you. Lastly, on FX, can you give a rough split of, because obviously you haven't seen the full impact yet because of hedges, but how much of the U.S. dollar move versus the euro would you say is already in your Q1 results?

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

If you look at the foreign exchange effects in Q1, we are talking about €14 million, FX negative, mainly coming from the U.S. dollar. 14.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Some positive coming from Swedish crown offsetting the U.S. dollar effect.

Kevin Hellegård
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Assuming all effects stay at spot, will that negative effect increase or decrease over the year?

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Well, for full year, the FX impact will be around some EUR 17 million.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Okay. Thank you. Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we now take a question from Antti Koskivuori from Danske Bank.

Antti Koskivuori
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yes. Hi. Two questions from me. Firstly, still on paper prices. You mentioned that Q2 will be stable compared to Q1. A little bit on a broader perspective, because there seems to be some attempts to raise prices going this summer. Do you share the view that there is still room to increase prices in Europe, in graphic paper? That would be the first question. Secondly, if you could discuss a bit about the cost situation outside of the wood cost, what do you see? Is there something that we should be aware of going into Q2, Q3 now?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

I think there are some possibility for graphic papers, yes. Let's see how that plays out and how fast it can be implemented. That I agree could be. When I said paper stable, that's for the whole and there's many grades in it. Agree with that.

Antti Koskivuori
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

That it's going to be minor possibilities.

Antti Koskivuori
Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. Do you care to comment about the different grades?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

I know I always take paper as a whole and you have to understand, we are working, and we have been working for every year, every quarter, every month, trying to raise prices. We know how to try and we managed to do it in certain grades for the first time for 15 years. We are working on it. I don't want to go into. I think that's why in general we said paper was stable. When it comes to the cost, you remember in conjunction when we published the Q4 for 2016, we actually announced a cost reduction program, which now is actually been extended to EUR 70 million, and is basically implemented. That was the reason that we needed to keep costs under control, even though we felt that 2017 was going to be a good year.

We think we have actually combated in what you can call the cost increases. I don't want to talk about inflation because every cost is specific and cost should go down. I think that we have seen a slight, and we have counted on something on wood cost, but on top of that, there could be some movements in logistics costs and chemicals. We need to combat that quite hard.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Those increase are offset by recycled paper prices coming down. That we also need to remember.

Antti Koskivuori
Analyst, Danske Bank

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Now we take the next question from Gustaf Hansson from Pareto Securities.

Gustaf Hansson
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Good afternoon. Two questions from my side. First of all, the EUR 10 million negative effect that you guided due to the wood situation in Q2. Do you want to give us any clarification on which segment you think that will affect mostly? Will we see some lower volumes in Biomaterials again?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

It will be across all, but the biggest one will be in Biomaterials and maybe in the pulp mills for Consumer Board. What we mean is that we drive down the pulp mill, but making sure that we have full capacity on the board, but on the excess pulp, we might hold down a bit.

Gustaf Hansson
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay. Very clear. Secondly, just a clarification on your Q2 guidance for operational EBIT. Should we see it as anywhere between +10% to -25% versus Q1?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes, that's correct.

Gustaf Hansson
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay, perfect. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Now our next question will come from Constantin Wolf from Western Asset Management.

Constantin Wolf
Analyst, Western Asset Management

Hello, thanks for letting me on and congrats on the successful quarter. Just one question from my end on the balance sheet. You talked earlier in the year about potentially tightening the three times leverage ratio. Curious how your thinking has evolved on that. Thank you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Obviously our actions is continue to tighten I like to have something that starts with a one. This is something we're working on internally. As you see, you also have to remember we will get 0.6 in, if we can conclude the and we are basically historically taking down by year 0.5 to 0.6. That's the math.

Constantin Wolf
Analyst, Western Asset Management

Okay. Thank you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

Did you understand what I'm saying? Okay. Thank you.

Constantin Wolf
Analyst, Western Asset Management

Yes, just interested that you haven't actually taken the formal three times ratio down to a different, i.e. lower number on paper. Do you still have significant flexibility under that?

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

We have significant flexibility, but this is something that I was saying we are working on.

Constantin Wolf
Analyst, Western Asset Management

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Before we take our next question, just a reminder, to ask the question, please press star one. We now will take a follow-up question from Lars Kjellberg, Credit Suisse.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Yeah, just a quick one. You have obviously kindly listed all the maintenance activities across the various mills. Can you give us any sense? You called out EUR 40 million for the second quarter, which is effectively coming off a zero base in Q1. How should we view the maintenance cost in the third and the fourth quarter of the current year? Are they going to be similar or smaller than Q2?

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

I think we have given you the maintenance schedule for the whole year.

Ulla Paajanen
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

For the mills, but not the amounts.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

For the mills, but not the amounts. In general, I think the only additional mill maintenance we have this year is Beihai mill, the new one.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Yeah.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

If you look at the phasing from the last year pointers, you get a pretty good picture how it will be phasing. The difference between Q1 and Q2 compared to last year is only EUR a couple million.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Of course, you have some significant board mills, of course, with attached pulp mills, both Imatra and Skoghall, those tends to be quite costly, right? I'm just trying to gauge if there's going to be any difference in maintenance costs in Q3, Q4 versus the second quarter. That's what I'm looking for.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Like I said, if you look at the phasing last year, Q3, Q4, that will give you a pretty good picture.

Ulla Paajanen
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Yeah, it should be. I agree with you. We have the big Imatra and Skoghall coming into the second half, we don't expect that to be different this year compared to last year.

Lars Kjellberg
Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Very good. Thank you.

Seppo Parvi
CFO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If there are no further question at this time, I will hand back to your speaker today for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you.

Ulla Paajanen
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Okay. Thank you for today's call, sorry about the little hiccup with the slides in the beginning, we were able to sort that out. I will give this final word to Karl to share with us.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CEO, Stora Enso

First of all, thank you for sharing with us, even though most of it was known, I think you appreciated some finer details in what we consider a very promising start of a new year. Hope to see you soon, hope to see you all at the Capital Markets Day in person. Thank you very much.

Ulla Paajanen
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.