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Earnings Call: Q3 2012

Oct 23, 2012

Operator

Good day, welcome to the Q3 2012 financial results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ulla Paajanen-Sainio, Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso. Please go ahead, madam.

Ulla Paajanen-Sainio
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Thank you, Kiara. Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to Stora Enso Q3 conference call. Here today with me is our CEO, Jouko Karvinen, and our new CFO, Karl-Henrik Sundström. Jouko will start the presentation, then we will, in the end, have a Q&A session. Please go ahead, Jouko.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you, Ulla. Welcome everybody on Q3 conference call. We'll do the conference together with Kalle. I'll start, then I'll hand over to Karl-Henrik in a minute. If you go to page three key messages. The operational EBIT was what we promised and a bit more, meaning that it's on the upper end of our expectations and guidance. Second, which I think is maybe even more important, robust cash flow and liquidity, EUR 312 million. Continuing on the multi-year path where the quarterly cash flow has been typically in the EUR 270 million range on the average. Then through that and the bond issues recently, we have raised our liquidity to EUR 1.7 billion, which we believe is the right thing in a situation where we are spending money to transform the company.

Third, even if we can say that at least from a cash flow point of view, it was a good quarter. You never forget that to keep that going, we need to continue, and that's why we have announced today a string of capacity and cost improvement program plans. That we need to do to keep this cash engine going also in the future. Page four, the EBIT. If you want to be positive, I don't know whether you do, yes, the third quarter EBIT was slightly better than Q2, I do understand and we do understand it's still on a relatively low level. The point of this chart is actually, if I use a different metric, return on capital employed is. We are burdened today by about EUR 900 million of capital tied on our balance sheet that produces zero revenue. Why? Because that's the transformation strategy.

We have Ostrołęka, Uruguay, and so forth already burning the capital, and it actually has an impact of almost 200 basis points on our return on capital employed. Obviously, when we get this up and running, it will change the tide, and then they will improve the ROCE rather than burden. Having said that, on the second results, it is obvious also that if you look at Building and Living, that highlights the reality. We not only must implement the plans we have announced, but it is very clear to us that we need to do significantly more to correct the underlying weakness of that particular business. Page five then gives you a summary on the new improvement plans announced today. Annualized cost savings EUR 36 million with a relatively limited, if I may say, cash impact of EUR 28 million on go and EUR 14 million write-downs.

If you do an investment calculation on that, it's actually not that bad. Obviously very bad for the good people in this unit, but I also think that the level or the string that we do now is better for the people because the re-employment possibilities are better if it happens early and not late. You might say that EUR 36 million isn't that much. Well, let me remind you that since the beginning of only 2011, we have a total of almost EUR 180 million net cost savings in these programs. I do want to repeat that that is a string or a path that we are on and we will have to continue to be on. Page six then. The other news, very specifically and accurately worded, we're entering the examination of possibility of selling the Corbehem mill.

A mill that has been restructured in the past, is now a single machine of 330,000 tons of LWC. The product range there is actually at the light end and which is actually not our focus area in LWC anyway. Right now what we do is we will investigate the potential of finding a buyer as the local requirements are in full cooperation with the local unions and employee representatives and the local authorities. We'll do that without very specific limitations, which is also quite important in the current situation. Obviously, we would prefer that the future business of that mill would not be hugely overlapping with ours, as you can imagine. We will not now or in the Q&A speculate with any alternatives. We cannot. Like, what if we cannot sell it and so forth?

The task for the team is now make this happen and make the best out of it for the company also. If you then move on to page seven, the world map, I'll be very brief. You know the Montes del Plata, Shucao, Ostrołęka, and Guangxi. The new one now is the Bulleh Shah Packaging Limited, I think a very interesting opportunity. Not a huge investment, which actually I think is good given all the other investments made, but I think a very significant opportunity given that Pakistan is the fourth largest dairy market in the world. We know the partner well, and I've had the honor to meet them. Think very highly of them in terms of their business practices, their whole understanding of the business and the Pakistani environment and so forth. This is a bit like the impact.

Plant a small tree and grow it fast, if I may use the parallel. Page eight, Montes del Plata. If you don't like the picture, you can blame me. I took it 10 days ago myself on my mobile phone camera, so I think it's pretty good. Just to give you an idea what's going on there, it's like building a small city, 6,000 people at site, 73% complete right now, moving rapidly into the erection phase from the civil work phase. The schedule is as it was, mid-2013 start-up, and as you can get from the picture also when I was walking around and driving around the site, very, very busy right now. Moving to page nine, Guangxi, China project. Obviously in a lot earlier phase, and that's fine. What we're doing at full speed right now is building resources.

We have about 800 people in Guangxi, which you could say, "Wow, that's a lot." Well, actually, it isn't. At the peak of the construction, it'll be towards 10,000. Obviously you understand through very specific campaigns, we're attracting people, not just expatriates and specialists, but also very good, very well-educated local Chinese people. In parallel, we're doing what I call detailed planning, and detailed planning includes then that you do risk assessments, you test your plans, if you think about logistics or wood supply or whatever, and look at how do you manage risk in the implementation of a very large, complex project. That's all very beneficial, I think, and good. The final permits, we said a few months ago, I guess a half a year ago, that we expect to receive the final NDRC and MOFCOM approvals in the second half of 2012.

It's still second half of 2012. We also want to tell that we, as of today, have not received those permits, which actually I think is relatively understandable given the leadership changes and so forth in China. Moral of the story is that's okay with us. The cost right now of carrying the project is very marginal, and we do everything we can to prepare and get ready, and we feel we are very ready then once we get the permits to go forward. With that, we also say today that we will confirm the more detailed timeline once we have received those permits. I think I stop there and hand it over to my new friend, Kalle. Go ahead.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Thank you, Jouko. Good afternoon and good morning to everyone on the call. I would like to highlight a couple of things on this page called summary financials. First of all, as Jouko said when we started, we came in as promised and a little bit better. Basically with the same sales levels as we had in Q2, it is basically due to the sequential improvement due to lower cost and underlying strong performance and improvement, mainly by renewable packaging as well as biomaterials. The other thing is that we came in with a sequential improvement in cash flow from operations and also sequential improvement in cash flow after investing activities. We ended the quarter with a very robust liquidity of EUR 1.7 billion, mainly due to two bond transactions that we did on very favorable terms.

I would also like to highlight the operational return on capital, which is 8%. However, we need to take into consideration what Jouko said, that this is included in here in the capital employed is over EUR 900 million of investments that we've done in the strategic transformation projects, which basically is taking the operational ROAS, the percentage down by 200 basis points. If we move to the next slide, this is the power of our cash engine. We continue to deliver a solid cash flow from operations, which for the last quarter, actually since 2009, has been around EUR 270, and we improved it sequentially.

This is a very important fact to bear in mind because this is the engine that will actually finance our transformation, combined with the strong liquidity that we have taken right now to make sure that we are prepared for the future. If we go to the next slide, which is slide 12, focusing on the balance sheet. As you can see, the last 12 months net debt over EBITDA went from 2.7-2.8. If we only look at the isolation and annualize the third quarter, it is actually a net debt over operational EBITDA of 2.5, because with the last 12 months, we have a couple of bad quarters, which means that we are turning the wheels and turning the trend.

The other one I would like to point out is that we also came in with an EBITDA just below 10%, 9.8%. Moving to slide 13. Here is actually the return on operating capital for the different businesses and compared to the average of the company. As you can see that we are in value creation or strong value creation for renewable packaging and some value creation in biomaterials. The important part here is those EUR 900 million in working capital that are invested in Building and in biomaterials and renewable packaging will move the 14.2%, if we take them out of renewable packaging, to almost 18%, and also doubling the 9% in biomaterials from 9% to almost 18%. That demonstrates the underlying power of the transformation that Stora Enso is going through. Moving to slide 14.

This is another way to describe where we have the cash focus and investment focus. The areas, the Printing and Reading and Building and Living and other, are basically generating EUR 300 million in nine months in net cash flows, while biomaterials and renewable packaging is basically break even on cash flow. This is the way we are driving the businesses, it also demonstrates the strength of the new business area approach implemented in the beginning of the year. Moving to slide 14. I will here just go through the guidance. We believe that sales roughly similar level than Q3 2012. Operational EBIT in line or slightly lower than Q3 2012. Mill maintenance will have a negative impact on renewable packaging and biomaterials during the quarter. I also would like to give you a little bit of a CapEx update. The previous guidance was EUR 700-EUR 750.

The new guidance for CapEx for full year 2012 is EUR 550 to EUR 600. The reason for that is that we see less of investment coming on this side of New Year's versus the other side of New Year's in relation to our investments in China. With that, I would like to go to the last slide. We are in a transition to transform to a value-creating growth company. I would like to say that Q3 came in as promised and a little bit more. We have a robust liquidity prepared for the future. We are the masters of our destiny. We are taking whatever measures that is necessary to keep the cash and the profitability at certain levels. The transformation to a value-creating growth company, we have a couple of proof points.

We have three projects soon finalized, and that is the Skoghall Woodyard, we have the Ostrołęka, and we have Montes del Plata. On top of that, we announced a joint venture in Pakistan that will be up starting in the first quarter of 2013. Then we have the Guangxi, China proceeding. With that, I would like to hand over to Ulla to open up Q&A.

Ulla Paajanen-Sainio
Head of Investor Relations, Stora Enso

Thank you, Kalle. Chiara, please open up the Q&A session now for our audience.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press the star one on your telephone keypads and ensure that the mute function on your telephone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. If you find that your question has already been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Once again, please press star one to ask a question. We'll take the first question from Lars Kjellberg from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Very strong cost performance in the quarter. Could you go through with us a bit how much of this is due, if you do bridge from Q2 to Q3, in terms of the impact of your own actions, the multiple programs you have been running, and the variable cost? What's the split there in the cost improvement on a sequential base?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Hi, Lars. Jouko will start and then that'll give Karl-Henrik a bit time to maybe give you more detail. Basically, vast majority of the improvement is variable cost in this particular situation. The fact of the matter is that if you look at total group, the fixed cost, overhead cost was flat. The interesting part obviously in my opinion is that at the same time where we

Grew like 400 people globally year-on-year. We added 1,000 people in China and India, which means that we reduced about 600 people in the old world. The point I'm trying to make is, I believe that the European existing asset costs are a clear part of the improvement, but it's then balanced by the investment in the growth areas also on the P&L. Karl-Henrik, am I right what I said?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

I think another way of looking compared to, it's actually compared to the same period last year.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yeah.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Sales and volume was basically causing a negative of EUR 110 million, then getting back to a result that is like EUR 50 million is all driven by cost action. Part of that is variable, but it's also really the action of fixed cost.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yeah.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. If we'd be looking forward, you've been very kind in listing all your cost initiatives. If I may, a couple of questions on that. You have the biggest single item is the Coated Magazine restructuring, which initially, if I recall correctly, was supposed to be completed by year-end 2012. Now you're saying it's the full impact by Q3 2013. The other one, the Hylte closure that you announced today by year-end, but it doesn't seem to have an impact until Q4 2013. That makes no sense. If you want to clarify.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Okay. Lars, help me out because the first one, where

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

The Coated Magazine, it should have been completed by year-end 2012. Now you're saying it's the full impact in Q3 2013.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Okay. 2013 is the right number. We'll get back to you on that because I'm not sure where did you get the other number.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

That was the initial announcement. That was the initial announcement in Q1, you talked about year-end 2012.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Okay.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Never mind.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

No, we'll get back to you in a minute.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Should we be concerned about currency at all? Referencing the strong Swedish crown. You haven't really mentioned that at all in today's release. Is that an issue going forward or not really?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Obviously, if it's enormous swings, it will be issues, with marginal swings, we have seen that the sequential movements that we have had between Q2 and Q3 hasn't had any impact at all. What we are trying to address is trying to get to a natural hedge in our business, and also have hedges. Minor movements shouldn't have any implications. Huge movements will have implications.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. If I may, just two things then, finally. Could you give us a yield, you've reduced your CapEx for the current year. What would you expect now for CapEx for 2013/14? Given the, what appears to be somewhat slow progress with the permits in China, is there a risk that this project drifts into 2015 before completion?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Lars, I'll take it. We specifically said that we'll confirm the detailed schedules once we have the permits. Welcome to China. I don't want to start guessing with the leadership change and everything, even though we still are in the window that we announced in the spring. I would like to point out, though, that two things. We've been there 10 years. The absolute cost of running it as is right now is hundreds of thousands EUR a month. You know as well as I do that about 24 months after the major capital commitments, that cost will ramp up very quickly. The point of the story is, I'm less concerned about a month or a quarter at this stage.

What is very important for me, and I think our shareholders, is that by the time we launch and start the construction and especially making big capital commitments, that all the prerequisites are there, and we don't get stuck once we tie up the capital. Point of the story, I won't give you a new schedule now. We will confirm the schedule once we get the permits.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

I'd prefer to guess an investment level well above EUR 1 billion for next year. That's what one would expect.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

As Jouko was saying, we will give you indications once we have the permits. I think that is better.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

No, I appreciate that, sorry. Thank you.

Operator

We are now taking a question from Linus Larsson from SEB Enskilda. Please go ahead.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Thank you very much, congratulations on these good Q3 numbers. A few follow-up on the previous questions, actually. Just to confirm the CapEx guidance that you're giving, that is excluding the Montes del Plata part of investments, right?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

When I give the CapEx guidance of EUR 550-EUR 600, that is excluding the CapEx that we are doing to our associated company, Montes del Plata. That is CapEx. The other one goes through equity accounting.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Excellent. That is still EUR 150 million. Is that correct?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

130.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

EUR 130. Excellent. Good.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Perfect. Also, on the variable cost improvement that you saw sequentially in the third quarter, could you break that down for us in any way? For instance, if you look at fiber costs specifically, how did they move for you in Q3 on Q2?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Between Q3 and Q2, fiber.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Q3 and Q2. Sorry.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Q3 and Q2, we had a positive impact of fiber cost. It is not the biggest of all the costs, but it's one of the bigger variable.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Okay. What are the other significant variable cost movements in third quarter versus the second?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Logistics and all of it.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Okay. Is really across the board then?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Good.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

It's the biggest variable.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Yeah. Okay, excellent. We talked about FX. Did I hear correctly that you said that FX is not a major factor comparing Q3 and Q2?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

That's correct.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

May I also ask about the restructuring program and the closure of Hylte PM1 that you announced today? I just wonder how we should look upon your perception that the structural decline in graphic paper is 4%-6% per year. At this point in time anyway, you're closing down one single machine rather than anything more. Should we view this as you will come back relatively soon with more capacity closures? How do we get these two statements to match?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

This is Jouko. If I may take that. First of all, this is the fifth newsprint machine Stora Enso's closing in my short tenure. We didn't start now. Two, I know you understand this, I could possibly not start pre-announcing any further plans, but I hope the past track record demonstrates it. When the demand does go down structurally 4%-6%, which I think we were the first company to demonstrate as a fact, then we will take appropriate actions in the future. That is unfortunately maybe as far as I can go.

If you can live with that answer.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Sure. I can live with that. Thank you very much.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Can I go back to Lars? You asked about this previous Scandi magazine or magazine paper restructuring, which we announced on the 8th of February this year. Actually, it wasn't an error. The original press release that I have it now in front of me, says, "The full impact achieved from the third quarter of 2013 onwards." The same release actually, Lars said, that the proposed restructuring measures would impact about 110 people and these actions would be complete by the end of 2012. See, the point is, the profit improvement program is not just a people reduction program, and there are some other things that will continue. Just wanted to make sure you don't feel that we're delaying it or anything. It's just that there's some smaller investment type of things that we need to do to get the full benefit of it. Okay?

You all right with that, Lars? Okay, next question. Please.

Operator

The next question comes from Erik Karlsson from AKO Capital. Please go ahead.

Erik Karlsson
Analyst, AKO Capital

Yes, hello. I had a question on pricing. What did you see in terms of prices sequentially on paper, on the various grades in Q3 over Q2? Also, what is your best guess as to how prices will develop in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

I would say it obviously varies grade by grade, but in rough terms, I'd say pretty stable in Q3 sequentially. The issue is more, if anything, I'd say that's very much true, especially in Europe. What is having a bit of an impact is the mix change because exports from Europe have grown given the weakness of demand in Europe, and that mix change tends to put a bit of pressure on price, but nothing that I would lose sleep at night on right now.

Erik Karlsson
Analyst, AKO Capital

Best guess on Q4 over Q3?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Well, I'm sleeping well.

Erik Karlsson
Analyst, AKO Capital

Okay, good.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Sorry, I don't want to go further than that.

Erik Karlsson
Analyst, AKO Capital

Okay. Thank you very much.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. One. We now have a question from Jay Kandalam from Lucro. Please go ahead.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Yeah. Hi. Basically, just had a quick question on the cost savings slide, which is, I think, slide 19. It's basically on the earlier announced cost-saving programs. I'm just trying to match what was earlier answered to Lars' question. I think I'm just getting a bit confused on some of the timelines, because if you look at the aspect of logistics restructuring, it says it's announced in Q2 2011, then the saving fully visible starting Q1 2011. I think it must be 2012, if I'm not mistaken there.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Yeah, that's a printing error. Sorry about that.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

You did find an error. We don't do it backwards obviously. Sorry about that.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Sure. If I get you right, and if I look at the new profitability actions, basically you're kind of saying that some of the plans which were earlier announced and some of the new profitability action plans, both of them could start taking simultaneous effect towards the end of 2013. Is that right to assume? Is that to take a mixture of some of them?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yeah, I think it's a good base assumption, I mean, the other way around, if you look at it, if we talk about the run rate savings, it is maybe a year and a half typical payback period kind of a thing.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Remember, this is in a Scandinavian context. We have not reached agreements with our labor unions about the timing. This is our proposal.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yeah. Good point.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Okay. A couple of other quick questions. In terms of the number you quoted from Montes del Plata equity injection of EUR 130 million, that would be basically for 2012, you kind of mentioned you have already spent about EUR 100 million. The money out for 2012, rest of the year would be EUR 30 million roughly, right?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Some in that ballpark. We haven't given exact guidance on it, but it's in the ballpark.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Okay. That would be the total amount, right? I mean, is there going to be any more equity injection or capital investment in 2013 in this regard? Because I think it's a good-

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

As far as we understand, there's no more decisions made for any additional, right? On top of that. Yeah.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Great. One last question, if I may. Basically, I just wanted to have a rough understanding of the cash interest cost with all the moving items in terms of the new bonds and some repayments done recently. Would you be able to kind of give pro forma cash interest number which we can plug into our models? Thank you.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

The cash interest cost will be around five and a quarter.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Sorry?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Five and a quarter percentage points.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Okay. Five and a quarter. Would you be able to kind of provide a cash interest figure? I mean, like absolute number, a pro forma number?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

No. Yeah, you see, the extra funds that we got in the third quarter will distort that. That's why I'm giving you an interest rate.

Jay Kandalam
Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Okay, great. I'll figure it out. Thanks a lot. Those were my questions.

Operator

We are now moving to Mikael Jansson from Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Mikael Jansson
Analyst, Cheuvreux

Yes. Hello. Good afternoon, everybody. I have a question, more of a general one. I mean, now you will start up your Montes del Plata project next year. We also know that there are two other projects, I think out of which one is in the process of starting up. When all of these three are in short fiber pulp, could you perhaps say a couple of word on how you view the short fiber pulp market in the short to midterm?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Well, let me first take the short term, which is right now kind of the majority. There, the short fiber pulp is more challenging in terms of the demand supply balance than long fiber, which right now I actually love because effectively we're net long and selling market pulp on long fiber where we're seeing a quick stabilization of the pricing, so to say, after the pretty bad third quarter, so to say. When the Chinese came back to the market, there is actually an increase in the recent moments. The short fiber pulp, we are pretty much net zero there. From a group point of view, it's not so meaningful even though it has an impact on the BA report. Longer term, if longer term is then six to nine months, 12 months, yes, there is one new capacity coming up before us probably.

I am not quite sure when. Not right now, I don't think, would be my guess. At the end of the day, I guess I'd say once we get Montes del Plata up and running mid next year, we do believe that our cost base is such that yes it will be cyclical, but that mill will do pretty well in essentially all the cycle parts. When we look at the strategic view on the demand of short fiber pulp, I'm not too worried because I also see that many of the talked about projects or even announced projects may not happen anytime soon. The mountain isn't as big as one might think. I don't think I can say too much more.

Mikael Jansson
Analyst, Cheuvreux

Okay, many thanks.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. We are now moving to Kari Rinta from SHB. Please go ahead.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

Yes, thank you. Kari Rinta, Handelsbanken. First, the clarification in terms of this restructuring program. This EUR 36 million figure, does that include the lowered cost from the units that will be shut down, i.e., Hylte 1 and Ruovesi Corrugated plant?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yes, it does.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

Okay.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

As you well know by now, Kari, when we take capacity out, it's the same carousel that it's been through the years. We take good margin business and move it to lower cost assets. That impact is not in the number. This is a pure cost saving number. We obviously drive as hard as we can also the margin improvement through the improved mix. We try to give up some low margin business rather than good margin business when we take capacity out. That we have not calculated, so to say.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

Sure

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

in this case.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

In terms of your guidance for the fourth quarter, you typically, if that can be said about the industry, you typically see stronger seasonality in fourth quarter, i.e., that the earnings drop more than slightly that you are now indicating in the fourth quarter. Is the sort of the typical seasonality being offset by continued declining variable costs or is there something else that is maybe supporting earnings more than what you typically see in the fourth quarter?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Well, we're facing a year-on-year slight deflation. Oops. The deflation is improving year-on-year in the second half and in the fourth quarter, so that's one driver. The second driver, which I'm not very proud of, is that I think the comparison point in Q4 2011 wasn't very brilliant, I have to admit. I would say a couple of those things are there, and then obviously volume outlook helps too.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

If you would look at on a business level, because you're indicating that the maintenance cost in renewable packaging will be higher in the fourth quarter, and I see that you have produced quite a bit to the inventory in the third quarter, which would imply probably related to maintenance but also some pressure on the fourth quarter margins. Is the other business then doing even better in the fourth quarter? I know that you don't want to give business level guidance.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

We don't give segment level guidance, but just to give you a couple of more factors. Printing and Reading is seasonally stronger in Q4, which is not true for packaging. The second comment I'd like to make, and I'm looking at Kalle here, so he agrees with me. You said inventory increases. I think the clear reason for the inventory value increase is more effects now than actual physical inventory. You shouldn't necessarily read that we have everything in store and we can't produce in Q4.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

We got a lot of revaluation going into the working capital. It's basically the whole increase is due to revaluation of currencies.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

Okay, I was just looking at the volumes in your renewable packaging where the production was 820 in the third quarter, and deliveries were 780 to you, so it's not a big deal.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Fair enough.

Kari Rinta
Analyst, SHB

All right, Printing and Reading seasonally better fourth quarter rather than Q3. All right. Thanks. Those were all my questions.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Antti Koskivuori from Danske Markets. Please go ahead.

Antti Koskivuori
Analyst, Danske Markets

Thanks. I would have 2 questions. Firstly, still on the cost, just to get it right. You're saying that the fiber cost is 1 of the drivers, at least, in sequential improvement in variable cost. Is that the biggest driver, and does it come from the recycled side? That would be the first question. The second question is about the maintenance downtime you're saying that you will have in Q4 in renewable packaging and biomaterials. Could you give us a figure about the impact that you will see in Q4 from these? Thanks.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

When I said that fiber was the biggest variable cost savings, and it include RCP and everything, and wood supply. It's all of it. When you asked me about the maintenance, that's an impact somewhere between EUR 10 million-EUR 15 million.

Antti Koskivuori
Analyst, Danske Markets

All right, thanks. Very helpful.

Operator

We now have a question from Nati Diaz from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Nati Diaz
Analyst, JP Morgan

Good afternoon, gentlemen. I had three questions. Two of them are clarifications. The first clarification is when you first said your interest cost is 5.25%, should we assume that as a percentage of your gross debt or your net debt?

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

On the gross debt.

Nati Diaz
Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay. Thank you. The second question was on the EBITDA. If I add your operational EBIT and the depreciation, somehow I can't get to the operational EBITDA of the report. Can you help me understand how you reconcile it? I'm happy to take the answer offline if that's the best way to do it.

Karl-Henrik Sundström
CFO, Stora Enso

Yeah, do that offline. This is a methodology where we actually include what we get from the associated companies. Normally you would actually think that EBIT is lower than EBITDA, but in our case, it's not.

Nati Diaz
Analyst, JP Morgan

Wow. Okay.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Yeah. Why we take that offline. Okay, the third one?

Nati Diaz
Analyst, JP Morgan

Yeah. The third one is on newsprint. Given that recovered paper prices have declined significantly, I guess, trying to read between the lines from Jouko's comments, prices should be somewhat stable into Q4 on a sequential basis. But is there an expectation that you should see some newsprint price declines heading into the first quarter or the first half of next year, given the raw material price declines?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

I'll take the question because I gave the previous outlook, and I can't actually answer that. You know very well that we're just about to enter the pricing discussions with our customers, and it would be inappropriate for me to start communicating through this channel. The only thing I can say, as I always say, like a broken record, pricing quality is mission-critical for us and as happy as I am with the cash generation of Printing and Reading, I think we need to be very focused on that pricing quality. Sorry, I can't give you a better answer.

Nati Diaz
Analyst, JP Morgan

That's all right. I can understand that. Thank you very much.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

As a final reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. It is star one to ask a question. We have a question from Linus Larsson from SEB Enskilda. Please go ahead.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Thank you. Just to follow up on the news about Corbehem today and what you said, Jouko, about potentially selling this unit to someone, and you said something about you would prefer to sell it to someone where the competition wasn't overlapping too much. Does this mean that you would not sell Corbehem to someone who intends to produce publication paper grade?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

I actually said everything I can say already, but I'll try to be even more clear. The way the set up is that we have to announce now openly, not only to the public but also to our employees and our unions that we intend to sell the unit. We cannot really start saying for this or that or anything else. The business logic says that from a Stora Enso and our shareholder point of view, obviously, we should minimize the overlap with our remaining business. That remains to be seen. Then the second point that I was trying to make is, not that you asked it, but before you do, I cannot speculate with anything in terms of what if we are not successful or this or that.

This is the plan now, we have to start implementing it, which we can only do after we announce it.

I know I didn't help you a lot, I tried.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Okay. Yeah. Just one follow-up on that. If you could comment in any way the financial performance of that mill at this point in time or in recent history.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

If you forgive me, you have to make your own conclusions. I won't give you any direct guidance on a single mill. Sorry.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Okay.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

I'm sure you can try to draw your own conclusions.

Linus Larsson
Analyst, SEB Enskilda

All right. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We are now taking a question from Kashish Imen from UBL Fund Managers. Please go ahead.

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

My question is regarding the Bulleh Shah mill, my question is what is going to be the role of Stora Enso in this Bulleh Shah mill? Secondly, how you're going to make the operational turnaround, because if you look at the Bulleh Shah mill, right now it's a loss-making entity. What operational changes you are going to do to make it a profitable entity?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Sorry, give me a minute. Sorry, somebody was trying to tell me something, but I can hear. The answer is many changes. It's like our own textbook. You know that we are the global number one in liquid packaging board. We already have a team of people preparing to introduce our knowhow, our product and quality capabilities with some investments to introduce world-class liquid packaging board and a few other high-grade materials in that mill. It's the combination of our global knowledge and our capabilities, and then the local capabilities of our partner. I think it's a perfect fit.

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

Right. The cost of sales is going to be down because of the biomaterial cost, which you will introduce, or it's going to be something else?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

There is a few specific actions. I don't think I even have the data. There is also investments that will improve the total cost and so forth and so on. If you forgive me, I don't have enough details with me now to be explaining to that. You can imagine that for us to make the investment into the joint venture, That's based on a very detailed plan on how do we get the cost right. One example I can mention is the power plant that we need to do to improve the energy cost and so forth.

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

Even Bulleh Shah. What do you think why Bulleh Shah is a loss-making entity right now?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Well, that I think would be inappropriate for me to comment on my new partner. Like I said, rather than trying to judge the current partner situation there, I think the actions that I mentioned, not just the overall capabilities and knowledge of making very profitable liquid packaging board elsewhere in the world, but also the investments in power plant. The fact that we have our own pulp supply, which will make lives at least more steady and so forth, will help. If you don't mind, I'd leave it at that now.

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

Do you see any export potential from Bulleh Shah if you get into that business?

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

I'm sorry, what potential?

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

Export, did you say that?

Yeah, export potential.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

You said growth potential? Absolutely, yes. Growth potential

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

Sorry, export potential. Export.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Export. I apologize, I misheard. Well, it might be a few quarterly calls ahead when you need to ask that question again. First priority to make your point is, let's get it right, let's make it very profitable through the actions that I listed and our capabilities, and make sure we win profitably on the domestic market. I think there's a very significant growth opportunity right in Pakistan. Obviously, if we later in the game see other opportunities of good margin business, I have no objections. I don't actually look that much on that thing. When we have created a very cost-efficient, high-quality unit, we'll be happy to serve any market, but we will always start at home, which already has a significant growth opportunity.

Kashish Imen
Analyst, UBL Fund Managers

Thank you.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso

Okay, very good. Thank you, everybody, for taking the time to listen to us and ask good questions. We will go back to hard work to improve further earnings and cash flow and cost and productivity, and I look forward to talking to you early 2013 the latest. Thank you very much.

Operator

This will conclude this conference call. Thank you for your participation. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.