Good evening, and welcome to attend the earnings release for the nine months of 2023. The management will walk you through the financial summary, business review, as well as strategies and outlook. Attending today's meeting, we have Chairman Wan Long of the WH Group, Executive Director and President Mr. Guo Lijun, Executive Director, as well as President of Shuanghui, Mr. Ma, CFO of the Shuanghui, Mr. Liu. Shane Smith, CEO of Smithfield. Mark Hall, CFO of Smithfield. Joanna Yan, CFO of WH Group. This is Robert Wang. CEO Mr. Guo will walk you through the financial as well as business overview. Good evening. Now, I will walk you through the performance of the first nine months of 2023.
We have faced a very complex macro market environment, including geopolitical risks, slowing down economy, which has put a lot of pressure on our operations. We have not achieved desirable results, and we have encountered a lot of challenges. In the first nine months, our packaged meat sales was 2.38 million metric tons. Pork sold volume was 2.96 million metric tons. Revenue was $19.5 billion. EBITDA was $1.6 billion. Operating profits $1.04 billion, which is 36.4% year-over-year decline. Profit attributable to the owners of the company was $569 million, declined by 37.7%. Basic earnings per share was $0.0443.
In the packaged meat business, packaged meat business is our core operation and the major source of our profits. In the first nine months of 2023, packaged meats contributed to 51% of our revenue and 146% of our operating profits. Pork business has incurred some losses, which contributed to 41% of our revenue and lost $30 million. From a geographic breakdown perspective, China contributed to 34.6% of the revenue and 75% of our operating profits. U.S. operation contributed to 53% of revenue and 11.7% of operating profits. European operation was 12.7% of revenue and 13% of operating profit. China business was very stable and continued to achieve growth.
In the U.S. operation, we had underperformance, primarily due to our pork production business. European business has achieved a meaningful growth in the first nine months. In the first three quarters of 2023, hog prices in China were at low levels because of sufficient hog supplies. In the U.S., the demand—there's weak demand and oversupply of meat protein caused low hog prices. In Europe, hog supply declined due to hog costs and ASF, driving a sharp increase in hog prices. The number of slaughter hogs in China increased by 3.3% year-over-year to 537 million heads in the first three quarters of 2023.
The number of slaughter hogs in the U.S. increased by 1.4% to 94.1 million heads in the first three quarters of 2022. Average hog price in China in the first three quarters was CNY 15.42 per kg. In the U.S., the hog price was $1.4 per kg. In Europe, the average hog price was EUR 1.77 per kg. In the first nine months, China operation achieved operating profits of $788 million. Packaged meats achieved $695 million. Pork increased. It resulted in profit of $59 million. One point to note that renminbi depreciated by 6% in the first nine months.
So our profits, actually all increased in renminbi terms, but, there were some decline after we translated into US dollars. In the US, the operating profit was $100.2 million, decreased by 84%. The packaged meats increased by 2.7%, to $765 million. In pork, the loss was $551 million. It's a significant decrease in the profit or a significant increase in loss. In Europe, the operating profit was $137 million.
Packaged meats contribute to $70 million, decreased by 5%. Pork has a profit of $61 million, which is a $79 million increase compared to same period last year. In the future, WH Group will continue to consolidate our global resources, adhere to the adjusted pricing, improvement and cost control business philosophy, leverage our strengths, industrialization, scale and diversification, upgrade intelligent manufacturing, automation and digitalization, and maximize internal synergies to maintain our leading market position and achieve sustainable development. So that's all for the first nine months.
Okay, now we begin the Q&A session. Next, the first question is from Chen Luo of Merrill Lynch. Chen Luo, you can begin.
各位管理层可以听得见？
可以，没问题，您请开始。
Okay, good. I have two questions I would like to ask. First, regarding China, because we are now seeing that domestic hog prices are clearly lower than our previous judgment. What is our current outlook for hog prices in the fourth quarter? Also, our packaged meats profitability in China is at the second highest level, only behind the 2020 pandemic. Based on your current judgment of the hog price trend, should we expect packaged meats profitability in the fourth quarter to generally continue the trend of the third quarter, or is there an upward trend? This is regarding China. Additionally, I have a question about the U.S. business. I think this question may be more suitable for WH Group management to answer, so I will ask in Chinese. Recently, there have been many overseas media reports that we are considering spinning off the U.S. business for a separate listing. Is it possible for management to comment on this at this occasion? In the future, around what time point and what details can be disclosed to the capital market, or communicated? Thank you.
Xiaoming, next.
So there are two questions. Hey, Robert. So there are two questions from Chen Luo of Bank of America. The first question is about China's packaged meats business. Apparently the outlook for the pork prices was lower than we had previously expected. And given the depressed pork prices, how will that impact the outlook for the packaged meats profit in the fourth quarter? And also what's the management outlook for pork prices in the fourth quarter? The second question relates to Smithfield. There's a lot of media reports about a potential spin-off IPO of Smithfield. Can management of the WH Group make some comments with respect to these media reports and if there are any news or information that could be shared with investors?
好，我来回答中国这两个问题，第一个关于这个猪价的判断。近年来，资本市场对养殖业的进入，或者说养殖业的集中化程度的提高，对这个猪价提供了更长时间的支撑，使得今年的猪价比我们预期猪价预判的还要低一些。按目前，养殖情况的调查结果来看，我们预计四季度猪价会有所上升，但涨幅不大，还有这个农历春节也是一个节日拉动的因素。而且目前的情况来看，明年的猪价比今年也不会有明显的上升，整体也不会高，整体趋势，前低后高，和今年是一样，这是一个猪价的判断。
So with respect to the outlook of pork prices in China, because there's a large amount of capital invested into this industry recently in China, as well as the continuous industrialization of pork production in China, there's a lot of supply for the pork. So the pork prices was lower than we had expected. For the fourth quarter, we expect the pork prices may slightly rebound, but will not increase significantly. This is primarily driven by holidays. And also given the current status of the sow inventory, we do not believe the pork prices will jump significantly in 2024.
第二个问题关于肉制品的盈利情况。我们今年年初，我们判断了今年的猪价比去年，我们整体肉制品成本会有所提升，所以年初，我们就采取了一些对冲成本上升，保持这个盈利水平的一些措施，随着这些措施的逐步落地，今年一到九月份，肉制品的盈利，基本上按我们的预期，三季度达到了4,300 CNY，4,300 CNY，4,300 CNY。按四季度，我们根据目前的原料成本来推断，我们的盈利依然在4,000以上。...
不是说猪价下降了，我们吨利就上升，因为我们去年的，尽管理个猪价的这个比今年的高点高，但是去年的低点很低，我们储备了一些低成本的原料，所以今年的原料成本，进入肉制品的比去年是高的。我们吨利之所以高，是因为我们采取了就像涨价啊，费用控制啊，工艺调整的几个措施带来的，所以后期的猪价的变化对我们的吨利不会有明显的影响。
With respect to the outlook of packaged meat profits. In the third quarter, we have achieved a profit of 4,300 RMB per ton, and we expect the profit will continue to maintain above 4,000 RMB per ton in the fourth quarter. That's because at the beginning of the year, we had expected the pork prices may increase in China, so we have adopted measures to hedge against the potential price increase of pork raw materials. So, that's why we can maintain good profitability and also because and our packaged meat profitability will not...
Even the potential increase in the fourth quarter of the pork prices may not necessarily immediately translate to decrease of our packaged meat profits, because our inventories because of the raw materials we use are not necessarily the hogs in the same quarter. So we have taken measures to hedge against the increase in pork prices.
好的，谢谢管理层。那能不能就是就这个Smithfield的接下来的这个拆分上市跟大家做一些分享呢？
好，我来给你回答这个问题，我是万隆啊。
Ai, Wan Zong ah.
啊，这个美国拆分或美国上市，美国上市，这个最近投行啊，给我们提供了好多很好的方案，在有议论，但是呢，我们还没有具体的方案和拆分上市的时间表，啊，我们还在酝酿之中。
With respect to your second question on the potential spin-off of IPO of Smithfield, we have recently received a lot of pitches from the investment banks. e have received a lot of good ideas, but we do not have a detailed plan or a timetable. We are still evaluating and deliberating.
等待这个具体的方案出来，啊，所以有好的方案，我们会向外公告。
Once we have a good and concrete plan for the IPO, we will make a proper announcement to the public.
Okay, next we will proceed with questions. If you have any questions, please press the raise hand button to ask. The next question is from Lillian Lou of Morgan Stanley. Ah, Lillian, you can speak.
Thank you, Robert. I also have two questions. The first one is also about China. My question is about upstream slaughtering. It seems in the third quarter, our fresh pork sales volume should have declined. I want to understand the reason behind this. Why is the overall volume down? Is it because our frozen pork sales decreased, meaning it is a strategic reason, or is it due to other reasons? For the fourth quarter, if we look at our forecast, if hog prices have a slight moderate rebound, how do we view the slaughtering volume and the net profit per ton in the fourth quarter? Especially since last year's fourth quarter, our net profit per ton for slaughtering was relatively high. So how do we see our net profit per ton in the fourth quarter? This is a question about China. The other question is about the U.S. business. I did some calculations, and in the third quarter, our packaged meats business, quarter-over-quarter, the profit margin had a rather significant decline. Of course, part of it is due to seasonal factors, but compared to last year, there is also a clear decline. I want to see what the trend will be in the fourth quarter. Also, a follow-up, just now Chairman Wan Long also mentioned, although currently the overall overseas spin-off listing plan and timetable have not been set, how do we view the overall strategic development direction for the U.S. business and how do we position it? What are Chairman Wan Long's considerations? Perhaps the spin-off listing itself is one of the options. I just want to understand, looking a bit longer term, in the next three to five years, how do we view the positioning of the U.S. business within the overall group? Thank you.
Three questions from Lillian of Morgan Stanley. The first question is on China's fresh pork business. Apparently, the third quarter sales volume of fresh pork has decreased. Is it because of our strategy or due to other reasons? As mentioned previously, we expect a moderate or slight increase in pork prices in China in the fourth quarter. How will that impact the slaughtering volume as well as the profits for the fourth quarter? Because the fourth quarter profit of slaughtering or fresh pork in 2022 was fairly high. The second question pertains to the U.S. business. The packaged meat business in the U.S., the profitability apparently has decreased month-over-month. It's quite significant. There are also decreased year-over-year.
Is it because of seasonality, or other reasons? So what's the outlook for fourth quarter packaged meats profitability in the U.S.? And thirdly, as chairman has commented earlier on the Smithfield's news, there's no timetable for Smithfield IPO yet, but what is the company's or WH Group's overall and long-term view of Smithfield in the overall group? What's the position of Smithfield in the company's long-term strategy?
Uh,
So this is Mr. Ma of Shuanghui. On the first question on China's fresh pork business, Mr. Ma wanted to clarify that the fresh pork sales volume in third quarter actually increased by 6.1%. When you say decline, you are probably referring to the revenue. That's because of the decline in the hog prices, in the pork prices, because last year, as the peak, the pork prices was CNY 27 per kg, but this year it's only CNY 16 on average. In the first nine months, our slaughtering volume increased by 14%. We expect in the fourth quarter, we'll continue to have double digits growth in the slaughtering volume, and may potentially even be higher than the growth in the first nine months.
So in terms of profitability for fresh pork business, in the fourth quarter of last year, because we had some low-cost inventory in the frozen products, in the frozen pork products, and the prices of our selling products are relatively high. So we had pretty good profits on the frozen products. And also because last year, the overall trend of the pork price was declining. It's favorable to our fresh products or chilled product sales. So that's why in the fourth quarter of 2022, the profit for both our frozen and chilled products has been pretty good. But this year, because the pork prices, it has been consistently low and depressed, so it is unfavorable to both frozen products as well as fresh pork products.
We expect the profits in the fresh pork for the fourth quarter will decline compared to the same period last year.
Mr. Ma, I want to confirm, in the third quarter, was our fresh pork sales volume growing? It seems like when I calculated it, the single-quarter volume in the third quarter seemed to be declining. I wanted to confirm this with you again.
三季度生鲜肉的销量是35.8万吨，同比增加了2.06万吨，增长6.1%。就数据很高。
好，谢谢。
是增长的，6.1%的增长。
6.1, good, thank you.
对 。
Just to clarify that, the third quarter fresh pork volume increased by 6.1%.
怎么样？好了。马总说了吗？马总说完了。马总说完了。
哎，说完了，马总，说完了。
啊，老曹，这个我来给你回答。你刚才问的美国的问题。这个，我们今年万洲国际啊，Smithfield的经营情况啊，不太好，产销量、营业收入、利润都在下降，特别是盈利能力在大幅度地下降。翻译。
So chairman wanted to respond to your questions about our U.S. business. In the first nine months of this year, the overall performance of WH Group is not ideal, and we have a declining profits, which has been quite a... the decline has been quite significant.
影响万洲国际啊，今年下降的主要是美国公司。
The main reason or the driver of the decreased profitability is our U.S. operation.
我们中国公司较好，欧洲公司啊，更好。这个中国公司今年的盈利，仍然保持了一位数的增长，按人民币计算，它增长6%，按美元计算的话，它增长1.7%。但是我们欧洲公司啊，今年是亏。
Our China business has a very stable and healthy growth. The European operation performed even better. In China, the profit increased by 6% in RMB terms and 1.7% in U.S. dollar.
从经营的情况看，美国今年下降了80%以上，如果净利润的话，它就更差了。
The operating profit in U.S. decreased by more than 80%. If we look at net profit, it could be even worse.
但是我们美国公司今年呢好得很好，像肉制品，今年的盈利情况很好，差的也很好差，主要 是差在养殖业啊。所以我们美国的屠宰业啊，属于一般。
There's a huge divergence in the performance of our U.S. operation. The packaged meats business has performed very well. The hog production performed very poorly. The fresh pork business performed, had a sort of on average performance.
所以下一步对我们的美国的产业，要进行整顿和改造。这个对我们这个肉制品业，我们继续要，做大做强，增加投入，把肉制品业做得更好。
So we'll continue to reform and improve our U.S. operation. We will expand and continue to invest in the packaged meat.
我们的养猪业啊，多年来是成本高，负盈大，投入也不少，啊，但是效果不好。
We have invested a significant amount of capital in pork production over the past few years, but it has been consistently high, consistent high costs and poor performance.
所以我们这一次就下决心，要对养猪业进行整顿，坚定地坚持养猪业，坏的全部退出。
We are determined to reform the production business, reduce the capacity, or even considering potential exits.
我们争取啊，甩掉养猪业这个包袱。
So we will hope to relieve ourselves from the burden of our production.
我们的美国屠宰业啊，属于一般，我们CEO调整以后了，现在比较好。所以对于屠宰业今后的发展呢，我们还是很有信心，我们要逐步地完善啊屠宰业，通过技术改造啊，产业升级啊，提高这个屠宰业的盈利能力。
...The fresh pork business is reasonably OK, and it had achieved a meaningful improvement after we made changes in the management team. We will continue to upgrade the business, continue to increase the level of automation and industrialization, and hope to continue to improve its performance.
我们的屠宰业按现在美国的实际产出仍然是全球最大的。我们要通过这一系列的，今后的改造完善，它的管理，继续把屠宰业做好。
Our fresh pork business remains the largest in the world, and we will strengthen the business through continuous optimization.
至于我们美国公司的这个分拆上市，我刚才已经讲了，我们有议论，我们也在讨论这个问题。现在我们还没有具体的方案，也没有具体的分拆上市的时间表。等待我们这个完善以后，有比较理想的方案的时候，我们会发公告。
With respect to the IPO news reports of Smithfield, as mentioned earlier, we do not have concrete plans or timetables yet. Once we have a good structure, a good plan, we will make announcement accordingly.
好吧，露草，我给你回答完，回答完。
感谢万总。
好，下面 -
So I'll go back... I'm sorry?
好，好，打字。
go ahead, go ahead. Yeah, I'll go back to the second question was about, which was about the U.S. packaged meats, business volume and margins. So our sales volume was down about 25 million kilograms, which is about 8%, but you have to keep in mind that takes, that includes Saratoga, which was a spice company that we had that we sold last year. Excluding Saratoga, our sales volume was only down about 4% from the prior year, third quarter. And for the quarter to date period, our branded retail deli sales volume for industry categories was down 2%, and this outperformed the broader U.S. Packaged Meats industry, which fell 3% during the quarter. And if you look at those same metrics on a year to date, year to date period, our branded retail deli sales volume was down about 4%, which is really in line with the broader U.S. Packaged Meats industry, and that's really driven by changes in and...
Yes, Shane, let's review again the question about US packaged meats. For US packaged meats, our third quarter sales this year declined by 25 million pounds, which is an 8% decline compared to the same period last year, mainly because we sold Saratoga's spice factory, leading to a decline in sales, so this is not comparable. So if we exclude Saratoga's sale factor, the decline is 4%. Then if we look at this third quarter, our own brand's retail and deli store's sales volume, actually we declined 2%, and this compared to the entire industry, 3% decline is actually better than the industry. Then if we look at the first nine months' situation, our branded retail and deli store's sales volume, our overall decline is 4%, and this and the entire US packaged meats industry's decline is also consistent, because this is also due to some consumer demand factors.
When you think about the margins that we were able to generate in Q3, we saw a profit again of about $650 a ton, and that's on par with Q3 of last year. On a year-to-date period, about $830 a metric ton, which is about 10% higher than we saw in Q3 of last year. A significant portion of our bacon business is on a lagging pricing formula, and that's actually priced weeks in advance of the production window. We did see belly prices spike by about 96%, from $85 a hundredweight in the second period. Our pricing on the formula just didn't keep pace with the sharpness. We saw a point in time where we saw a decrease in profitability, but that has since begun to recover as those prices have declined from the summer surge. We do expect to see healthy margins in this category for the rest of the year.
Regarding the profit issue of packaged meats, our third quarter profit was $650 per ton, similar to the same period last year. For the full year, it was $830 per ton, which is more than 10% higher than last year's third quarter. Why did our third quarter packaged meats profit decline? Mainly because our bacon products are priced according to formula, and this year in the third quarter there was a sharp rise in the US pork belly market price, a 96% increase. So in our product pricing adjustment, there is a time lag, so in the short term there will be a situation where our bacon category products' profit will decline like this, but this will recover over time. So we expect our product's profit margin to remain at a healthy level.
So overall, I would tell you, we're extremely pleased with the results from our Packaged Meats business and the performance of our Packaged Meats business. We feel that our portfolio allows the consumer to move up and down between branded and private label. It keeps them in our overall offering.
We're really excited about the fourth quarter and the future growth of that business. 所以总的来说，其实我们对于我们肉制品的业务的表现是非常满意的，我们有一个非常强大的一个产品的组合，可以呢，是在不同的价位能够，满足我们消费者的这个需求，从有品牌的产品一直到这个贴牌的这个产品。所以我们对于四季度和未来这个展望都是非常的这个有信心的。
Thanks a lot, Charles.
好的，下面我们接着提问。下一个提问是来自于Jefferies的Anne Ling，Ann，你可以开始。
哎，你好，听得到吗？
可以听到。
还是一个 follow up，刚才讲的那个，我们的美国那个 package 那边的那一个 敦利的话，是不是说 3Q 的话已经是谷底了，那我们 4Q 那边呢，应该就是会，比那个四 ...
3Q会更好一点。那这个是第一个问题。第二个问题呢，我看，刚才那个，管义成说那个我们希望那个上游那边呢，美国那边的上游那边呢，有机会就可以把它甩掉那边。但是呢，我们上一次呢，也听到管义成是说希望把它先精简一点，把它减少一些产能，就是说，从那个2022年的一个1,700万左右，...
1700万的那个，那个产能，一个头的产能呢，到那个年底的2023年的那个1500万头，那我不知道现在的 一个进展是怎么样的，还是说我们现在，其实会更，更aggressive，更，更积极地来，来把那个产能把它，减少。谢谢。
This U.S.
Two questions from Jefferies. The first question pertains to the U.S. packaged meat business. As a follow-up to Xin's comments earlier, can we understand, interpret your comments as that the third quarter of this year is to be a trough in terms of packaged, in terms of profitability for packaged meats? Are we expecting the per ton profits to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023? And second question relates to chairman's comments earlier on the pork production business. Chairman mentioned the possibility of exiting from the business, but in the past, the management has commented that the plan is to reduce the capacity from 70 million heads to 50 million heads this year.
So what's the progress in the capacity reduction, or is the company exploring a more aggressive approach in the reduction?
对于美国的养猪业，我们已经做了决定了，一是我们要坚持，二是条件合适的时候，我们会全部退出，这样要考虑我们企业的利益。如果全部退出，对我们是能够实现利润的最大化，那我们就全部退出。如果部分坚持的话，对我们有利，我们也可以部分坚持，但这个具体的方案的实施都在进行中，我们做了多手的准备，怎么样合适，怎么样对我们企业有利，我们就怎么做。
So with respect to your question on pork production, number one, we are for hog production. Number one, we will look to reduce the capacity. And number two, if the conditions are mature or appropriate, we will consider assets completely, entirely or partially, depending on which structure will help us maximize the profits of the business. There are different alternatives and options we are evaluating.
谢谢。那么如果说我们的那个要把它剥离掉的话，剥离掉的话……听到吗？不好意思。
听到了，你说。
可以。
哦，好，好，好。那就是说，如果我们把它剥离掉的话，我们的那个部分的一个产业的那个净资产大概是多少？我们需要拨备的那个大概多少呢？对。
现在这个我们还没有具体地说，我们还在，因为我们是部分坚持或者全部退出，但我们这个最终的方案定了以后，我们会有这个具体的说起。
The question is that if we were to exit from the or spin off the pork production business, what would be the net asset value of this, of this business? The response is that we don't have the exact numbers at this point because we are evaluating different options, as we speak.
我们这个退出啊，我们是把它卖掉，把它卖掉是关键，这一点要弄清。
If we were to exit from the pork production, we will look to sell them instead of just closing them down.
Thank you, thank you Chairman Wan Long, thank you!
Last-
With regards to—this is Mark Hall. With regards to the packaged meats margins, I would say that yes, the third quarter will be the low point in terms of profitability per metric ton for the packaged meats business. And again, as Shane indicated, it was really a very strong quarter and would have been stronger if not for the 96% run-up in belly prices during the quarter. We see margins rebounding in the fourth quarter, b ut keep in mind that seasonally, the fourth quarter, from a profit per metric ton basis, isn't typically as strong as the first half of the year, because there's a high volume of holiday ham shipments that go on during the fourth quarter of the year.
But, as far as the full year on a metric ton basis, we're sticking with our past statement that the packaged meats business will deliver between $750 and $800 per metric ton.
好的，下面我们接着提问。下一个提问是来自于中金的陈文博。文博，你可以开始。
好的，谢谢管理层，谢谢各位管理层的分享。那我这边是三个问题啊，首先是针对中国这边的，因为第三季度我们看到肉制品的吨利环比第二季度还有进一步的提升。
大约在CNY 4,300每吨。那想问一下，就是这个产品吨增价，还有成本的影响有没有一个大致的拆分？以及我们之前其实也有提到，国内的肉制品也有一部分产品有提价，那也想问一下提价的这个产品覆盖的范围以及幅度。然后第二个是关于美国的问题，the second question is about the US, what's our outlook of the hog and pork prices of the US next year?
And also, can you give us some color on the volume growth of packaged meats next year? 然后第三个问题是想问一下，这个万洲国际层面，就是其实也有很多投资者比较关心，我们有没有可能在未来去，对股息率做一些调整，比如说略微提高一下我们的这个股息分配率。主要就是这三个问题，谢谢管理层。
对不起，确认一下，您第二个问题关于美国，是说想知道它预测明年的美国猪价和美国的这个，肉制品的销量的那个展望是吗？
对，美国的生猪价格和猪肉价格的预测，以及明年肉制品的这个销量的增速的展望。
Okay. So three questions from CICC. The first on China's packaged meat business. So, the third quarter profit per metric ton was 4,000 renminbi—4,300 RMB, which has a significant quarter-over-quarter increase. How much of this is driven by increasing the prices? Driven by the decrease in the raw material costs? Management commented earlier that Shuanghui has increased the price for some products. Can you explain the scope and the magnitude of the price increase? And second question on the U.S., what's the management's outlook for the hog and pork prices for 2024, and the outlook for the packaged meats volume of 2024? And third question for WH Group, is there any plan to increase the dividend payout ratio in the future?
马总，马总，请。
好，我来回答第一个问题，关于这个第三季度肉制品吨利的提升，...
In the third quarter, the profit per ton of packaged meats increased year-over-year, reaching $250 million. The profit for the same period increased by $250 million. Of this, price increases contributed more than $100 million in profit, and savings from raw materials, packaging, and expenses contributed $100 million. Due to our process optimization and other reasons, there was $50 million, reaching this level. Among the products, one-third experienced price increases, with an average increase of 3%. After averaging, the total increase was 1%.
On the Packaged Meats products profit in the third quarter, the quarter-over-quarter increase was $250 million. If we break down, that's $250 million, $100 million is driven by increase in the selling prices, $100 million is driven by the decrease of raw material and ingredient costs, and $50 million is driven by our improvement in the manufacturing process.
... and with respect to the increase of our products, the increase of the price of our products, if the scope is around one third of our packaged meat products, the magnitude of the increase on average was 3%. So if you spread out that to the entire packaged meats operation, it's a 1% increase in the selling prices. Mark, I'm sure Mark-
Yeah.
Can respond to that.
So when we look at the hog production outlook, we anticipate that when we see prices in Q4, that will continue on their seasonal decline and remain well below 22. We do anticipate that raising costs will continue to trend lower in Q4. We'll begin to see the benefit of the reform measures and lower grain prices. Hog sale prices on a live basis, we expect them to be in the $57 a hundredweight.
That's down about $10 per hundredweight from what we saw in Q4 of 2022. And on a raising cost basis, we're expecting corn, on a fed grain basis to fall below $6.20 a bushel in Q4. So that would be about 15% below what we saw, on a year-to-date basis in 2023. And when you think about soybean meal across that same time period, we expect that to fall somewhere around $460 a ton, from a year-to-date price above, that's about $485 a ton.
那么，关于美国对于这个猪价的一个预测的话呢，我们预计美国第四季度的...
我们现在预计美国第四季度，第四季度的猪价还是会处于一个低位，还是会低于2022年的一个水平。但是另一方面，我们也预测我们的生猪养殖的成本会有所下降。一方面是我们自己的改革措施，另一方面，谷物的价格也是在下降。那么从价格预测的角度来看，我们预测猪价在第四季度大概是每磅$0.57，这个比去年同期会下降每磅$0.1。那么从谷物的价格来看，我们预计第四季度的谷物价格会下降到六...
For corn, it will drop to $6.2 per bushel. This compared to our first three quarters' price level will have a 15% drop. For soybean meal, we expect it to drop to below $460 per ton, while our first nine months is $485 per ton.
In the fresh pork side of the business, we do expect meat values to trend seasonally lower as we move through the fourth quarter. That may pressure our profitability, but with higher market hog numbers coming in, actually higher than anticipated, hog costs, again, we're forecasting will move lower, which will be supportive of the spread, in comparison to the prior year. USDA projected about a 1% increase in 2023 pork production from 2022. And that's expected to put or continue to keep some downward pressure on the USDA Carcass Cutout. But we do think our prices will offset some weakening meat values and be beneficial, to the overall spread.
So, from the perspective of this meat price, we expect the meat price in the fourth quarter, because there are also some seasonal factors' influence, will still continue to face a downward pressure. Then, we...
但是另一方面呢，因为现在这个生猪出栏量的这个，是比我们预期要来得高，根据这个美国的一些这个统计的话，那么所以我们觉得整个，对于我们猪—肉猪价差的话呢，还是有一些这个支撑的。那么美国农业部现在预测呢，2023年整个的这个生猪的这个出栏量有一个1%的同比的这个增长，这个也是会持续地对于，这个肉价，有一个下行的这个压力。但是另一方面呢，因为我们也预计这个猪价会，有所这个下降，所以这个也是会，有助于，这个有利于我们肉猪，肉猪的价差。
那个，第三个问题呢，就是说我们分红的这个--关心呢，我们分红的比例。我们的政策呢，分红的政策呢，一直都是不低于当年净利润的百分之三十，但是我们实际分红的比例啊，一般情况下，一般年份都会高于这个比例。所以说下一步呢，我们公司的经营啊，这个持续向好，现金流了，公司的现金流呢也一直强劲，所以说下半，以--今后呢，我们虽然分红政策还是百分之三十，但是我们会根据情况呢，会提高我们的分红比例。With respect to the dividend payout ratio, our policy has always been no less than 30% of the net profits of the year. But usually, in practice, we have achieved a higher dividend payout ratio. So as our business continues to grow, the cash flow continues to improve, we expect to continue to pay the dividends higher than our policy ratio of 30%.
好的，谢谢各位管理层。And for the US side and Mark, can you also share with us the price look of hog and pork in the US 2024?
The outlook for price, the hog,
Pork price。
Twenty twenty-four。
Sure. So this is Mark. The expectation is for an overall reduction in the sow herd of about 1%-3% in the industry for next year. And now it takes time for that to work through the industry, but that is the expectation which would be supportive of higher prices for both hogs and meat values.
那么，行业预测这个母猪的存栏量呢，在明年会下降1%-3%。那么，当然这个母猪存栏量的下降，对于生猪供应的影响会需要一段时间才能体现出来。但是，这个数据本身我们认为是有利于支持这个猪价的。
Okay, and what about the demand side? What's our volume growth, outlet of packaged meat business, in 2024?
Packaged meats growth. Yeah, so the outlook for packaged meats growth is volume of about 1%. Really, for packaged meats, it's about the continuing shift in terms of our mix of products, skewing more to the higher end value added products, whether it's smoked sausage, dry sausage, cooked bacon, etc. So really margining up from that perspective.
我们预测这个肉制品，我们是希望这个肉制品的这个销量有一个1%的增长。我们在肉制品方面，我们主要是推动产品结构的一个持续的改进，是推动我们，这个能够卖出更多的，更高，利润的产品，包括像这个干香肠、烟熏香肠，还有这个，主力组的培根。
呃，文博，你的问题可以了吗？
我问完了，谢谢管理层的回答。
好的，好的，那么我们今天计划的会议时间已经完成，今天的会议到此结束，谢谢各位的参与。Shane and Mark, today's meeting has concluded. Thank you for your participation.
Thank you。
Thank you!
Thank you。