WH Group Limited (HKG:0288)
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Earnings Call: H2 2025

Mar 24, 2026

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

Dear analysts and investors, good evening. Welcome to our annual results announcement by WH Group. Today we have with us Mr. Wan Long, Chairman and Executive Director. He is seated on the stage with us. Next to him, we also have Mr. Guo Lijun, our Executive Director and CEO. Our CFO and Vice President, Madam Yan Kam Yin. I'm Zhou Xiaoming, the VP. We also have online with us, our leaders, Mr. Wan Hongwei, Vice Chairman of the group. Mr. Ma Xiangjie, Mr. Shane Smith and Luis, and Mark. We will first listen to the introduction of our performance in 2025, and then we will proceed to Q&A session. First of all, Mr. Guo, please take us through the financial situation and business review.

Guo Lijun
Executive Director and CEO, WH Group

Good evening, everyone. I'm going to take you through the financial summary business review of 2025. Packaged Meat sold 3.054 million tons, a drop of 1.5%.

Pork sold 4.089 million tons, an increase of 8.6%. Revenue realized $28.026 billion, up 8%. EBITDA $3.377 billion, up 9.7%. Operating profit $2.612 billion, up 8.7%. Profit before tax $2.5 billion, up 13.2%. Profit attributable to owners of the company $1.591 billion, up 8.2%. Basic earnings per share $0.124. Based on our operating performance and cash flow for the year to better make returns to our shareholders, we have decided that we are going to propose a final dividend of HKD 0.41 together with interim dividend HKD 0.2, for the full year HKD 0.61, total payout $ 1 billion. They will be distributed after the shareholders meeting. If you look at our segment performance, Packaged Meat is still our core, contributing 50.6% of revenue, and 82% of our profit. Pork contribution 40% to revenue and 22% to our profit. Others 8.8% and 4.1% respectively.

North America contribution 54.3% to our revenue, 53% to our profit. China business contribution 30% to our revenue and 35% to our profit. Europe contribution 15.4% and 10.9% respectively. Over the year of 2025, we maintained operating cash flow at $2.526 billion, with a declining CapEx at $611 million, down by 13.6%. Shareholder return, $320. The proposed level for the full year, HKD 0.61. That will exceed $1 billion payout. We have also maintained a conservative leverage level and debt level towards the end of the year. $3.633 billion is our total borrowing and total debt to equity ratio is 0.28. The global economy demonstrated resilience and escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties with divergent trends across different regions. The Chinese hog market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to lower pork prices. Effective demand for consumer goods was insufficient.

Hog prices in North America rebounded and market spread narrowed. Profit of Hog Production improved, while the Fresh Meat and Packaged Meat business faced cost pressures. In the European market, hog prices declined due to animal diseases, war and export restrictions. We leveraged our global platform and vertically integrated business model, optimized our business structure, promoted efficiency improvement and cost control, leading to improvement in all key operating metrics and record high profits. The number of slaughtered hogs in China increased by 2.4% to 720 million heads. By the end of the year, hog inventory in China was 430 million heads, up 0.5% over the end of 2024. The volume came up with the prices coming down. Number of slaughtered hogs in the U.S. decreased by 0.8% to 127 million heads.

Average hog price per kilo, $1.57 in the United States and EUR 1.46 per kilo in Europe, down by 8.5%. Hog prices in China and Europe both went down. If you look at the spread in the market, average pork cutout value in the U.S. was $2.27 per kilo, an increase of 7.4%. Meat prices went up by 7.4%, and industry market spread narrowed as hog prices increased more than pork values. Operating profit, $934 million in China, down by 1%. Packaged Meat, $891 million, down by 3.6%. Pork, $44 million, down by 20%. We implemented various innovative measures, continue to enhance performance of underperforming segments, expanded sales network, and optimized product mix amid a challenging market environment. Our total meat sales volume reached a record high while profit remained stable. We have innovative marketing strategies and accelerated channel transformation, driving rapid sales growth in emerging channels.

Profit per ton remained strong. We adhere to the strategy of stabilizing profit and expanding volume for pork business. We expand customer base and sales channels, resulting in increase in sales volume. We continue to increase volume of chicken produced and processed, adjusted product mix and expanded sales network for poultry business. We accelerated digital transformation to drive upgrades in management across operation, sales, Hog Production, administration, and R&D. For North America, operating profit, $1.393 billion, up 17.4%. Packaged Meats, $1.097 billion, down by 6.6%. Pork, $444 million, up 161.2%. We capitalized on favorable market opportunities, leveraged vertically integrated business model, optimized operational management, and implemented cost-saving and efficiency-enhancing measures, resulting in high record earnings. For Packaged Meats, total sales volume remained stable, supported by diversified product portfolio and channel mix, while high margin products continued to deliver growth.

We continue to improve mix, adjust price, and control costs to absorb the pressure of rising raw material cost. For Pork business, profit improved significantly, driven by a Hog Production segment that capitalized on favorable market conditions, improved performance indicators, and lower hog raising cost. Fresh Meat business enhanced operational efficiency, reduced expenses, and optimized product and channel mix. We continue to improve KPIs of Hog Production, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and strive to achieve a competitive cost structure. For Europe business, operating profit $285 million, up 4%. Packaged Meat, $155 million, up 14%. Pork business, $90 million, down by 31.3%. We leveraged the strength of our business model to counter market fluctuations, focused on the development of Packaged Meat business, pursued synergistic M&A, leading to sustained growth in volume and profit. We expanded the scale product offering and geographic footprint of Packaged Meat by integrating newly acquired operations.

We adhere to the strategy of improving mix, adjusting price, and controlling cost. For Pork business, we leveraged the vertically integrated business model. Profits of the segment improved significantly, mitigating the impact of declined hog prices. The poultry business achieved growth in both volume and profit by improving management and expanding sales network, seizing market opportunities and controlling cost. We focused on the Packaged Meats segment, expanded our supporting business and strengthened business footprint, and successfully acquired Pini Foods from Poland and Wolf Group from Germany. WH Group will continue to consolidate our global resources, leverage synergies, adhere to the business philosophy of improving mix, adjusting price, and controlling cost, and the strategy of industrialization, diversification, internationalization, and digitalization to enhance our leading position. We will continue to focus on our core Packaged Meats business to achieve steady growth in volume and profit.

We respond to evolving consumer market and promote product and channel transformation in China to achieve breakthrough in sales volume. We mitigate the measures of increasing costs and drive growth in high-margin products to maintain high profit in the U.S. We continue to expand our business scale in Europe through organic growth and acquisitions, reducing our costs and improving our efficiency to increase profit. We will explore opportunities to optimize and increase the processing capacity of Pork business through M&A, new construction, and facility upgrade, optimize product mix and sales channels to enhance profit. We will achieve a competitive cost structure for Hog Production by improving the KPIs and effectively preventing and controlling diseases. We will accelerate the development of our poultry business and enhance operational performance to further advance our meat diversification strategy and achieve synergistic development through complementary businesses. That's the end of my report.

Thank you very much.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

Thank you, Mr. Guo. Now let's enter the Q&A session. If you would like to ask questions, please raise your hand and tell us who you are and who you represent.

Operator

If you want to raise a question, you can ask a question either in Mandarin or in English.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

Let's invite the first question from the floor.

Lillian Lou
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much for the opportunity. I'm from Morgan Stanley. I'm Lillian Lou. I have two questions. First of all, Mr. Guo, you talked about 2026 for Packaged Meat business. Mr. Wan has been paying very close attention to that, and you have been making adjustments. For this segment in China, if you look at hog prices declining continuously, in 2026, with a rather high level of profit per ton last year, do you think you can achieve new heights this year? Concerning Packaged Meat business, in terms of sales volume, it's been suppressed by demand, so it hasn't been very strong. What about this year? What is your thinking? About the U.S. side, Packaged Meat business, as you mentioned, you would like to expand high unit price products and high profit margin products.

What is the overall thinking about 2026? Taking one step back, Mr. Wan, the entire group is in a stabilization stage. What about the next three to five years? What would be the focal point in terms of return to shareholders? What is your plan?

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

The question came from Lillian Lou of Morgan Stanley. The first part relates to the Packaged Meats. As Mr. Guo mentioned, that Packaged Meats is a strategic priority for WH Group. With respect to China, given the relatively low raw material cost, in light of the strong profit per metric ton performance in 2025, is there an opportunity to achieve even higher profit per metric ton in China for 2026? The volume of China Packaged Meats has been under pressure due to the demand in the market. How should investors look at the volume for 2026? With respect to the U.S. Packaged Meats, Shane, Mark, I'll defer to you to answer this part. As we mentioned, we will promote more high unit cost, high margin products. What's the outlook for U.S. Packaged Meats, I guess, in terms of volume and profitability going forward?

The second question for Chairman Wan, what will be the company's strategic priority in the next three to five years and what will be the shareholder return look like in the future?

Shuanghui leaders, can you talk about the Packaged Meat business? Can we connect them?

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

Good evening. I'm Xiangjie from Shuanghui. I'm joining online. Concerning the first question about Packaged Meat. In 2026, the hog prices have been dropping, so concerning our strategies.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

Mr. Ma, I think you are too far from the mic. You are being cut off. You better start from scratch again.

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

How about now?

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

It's better.

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

I will answer the first question concerning about Packaged Meat business.

[Non-English content]

Speaker 16

Response from Mr. Ma, CEO of Shuanghui on China Packaged Meats. Based on our latest observation in the market, the recovery of the demand is not very obvious and the competition remains very strong. In 2026, our strategy for China Packaged Meats is to balance volume and profitability with a slight focus on volumes. Consistent with this strategy, our priority will be to expand market shares to step up our investment in marketing, in innovations, which means that we expect our volume will grow, but profit per metric ton may have a slight decline compared to 2025, but will remain at a very high level, probably the second highest in the context of the historical profit per tons. The second part relates to U.S. Packaged Meats. i will defer to Shane and Mark. Shane, Mark, can you hear us?

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Yeah, we can hear you. Can you hear us?

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

It will be better if you can get closer to the mic.

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Okay. Can you hear us now?

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

Yes, yes.

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Okay. All right. Thank you, Lillian, and thank you, Xiaoming. Lillian, Packaged Meats continues to be the earnings driver of the North American business. This 2025 was the fourth consecutive year where we had achieved over $1 billion of segment profits. From a volume standpoint, we were up in six of the 10 billion-dollar-plus categories that we operate in. We saw in our Food Service channel, we saw sales increased by 10% in fiscal 2025, but we also saw volume increases in that channel as well, which was up by about 2%. Xiaoming, I'll let you translate that and then I'll continue.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Again, in six out of 10 of those billion-dollar categories. More importantly, that includes the higher margin categories like deli meat, packaged lunch meat and dry sausage. We grew dollar and unit share in 2025, and we also grow points of distribution. We have 25 key categories and we saw points of distribution up about 5% for the full year. That was really led by performance in our Prime Fresh. Our Packaged Meats, we feel really strong about going into 2026. We will be exercising more along the lines of advertising and promotion to promote brand growth. We are aware in North America, we still were operating with a very cautious consumer, a very cautious spending environment. We think we have the right strategies in place to see both volume and profitability growth in 2026.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Thank you, Xiaoming.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

Thank you, Shane. [Non-English content]

Wan Long
Chairman and Executive Director, WH Group

[Non-English content]

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Speaker 16

In response to your second question related to the company's strategies, we have the four-pronged strategies with four themes: industrialization, diversification, globalization, and digitalization. Specifically for industrialization, it means we realize the full benefits from a vertically integrated business model to achieve the synergies between the upstream, midstream, and downstream. In Hog Production in the U.S., we are reducing our capacities. In China and in Europe, there is a slight increase. For Fresh Pork and Packaged Meats, we'll maintain their steady growth. We want to achieve the optimal balance between the different businesses to maximize the synergies. Secondly, diversification, it means while we continue to focus the meat processing business, we will continue to diversify. While we continue to grow the Pork business, we'll also diversify into Poultry and Beef as opportunities arise.

Thirdly, in terms of globalization, because we are a multinational company, we have a lot of synergies between different parts of our business. Through various trading opportunities, we want to achieve synergies between our business subsidiaries. In terms of digitalization, we aim to use new technologies to improve our business management, to use artificial intelligence, robots to replace some existing processes to improve efficiency, improve productivity, and use these new technologies to transform our traditional meat processing industry. To execute on this strategy, we will have three priorities. First priority is that for our existing Pork, Poultry, and Packaged Meat business, we'll focus on the core existing business, expand their volumes. In the last couple of years, we have some pressures and declines in the volume of our business, and we will focus on recovering the volume growth in China and the U.S.

Secondly, in terms of technology, we will introduce more technologies to improve the process efficiency to reduce cost and expenses. Thirdly, in terms of acquisitions, we will selectively identify and execute acquisitions in Pork, Poultry, and Beef to further expand our scale and strengthen our business portfolio.

Wan Long
Chairman and Executive Director, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Speaker 16

In terms of shareholder return, as you know, our dividend policy is that no less than 50% of the profit attributable to owners of the company. We obviously will continue to adhere to our shareholder dividend policies. As you have seen, in the last couple of years, we have made some reorganizations, including the IPO of Smithfield and the separation of Morliny Foods from Smithfield. After this restructuring, all these subsidiaries performed very well. We are also confident about the outlook. For 2026, we have very good plans for volume, for revenue as well as the profit. We are confident in our ability to deliver shareholder returns in 2026 and going forward.

Wan Long
Chairman and Executive Director, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Speaker 16

That's all from Chairman.

Operator

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Speaker 12

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Speaker 16

Shane, Mark, two questions from BofA research, [Non-English content]. They are all related to the U.S. business. The first is on U.S. Hog Production. looks like the 2025 Hog Production profit per head was $18, which is one of the highest in the recent history.

In your previous guidance, you have guided Hog Production profit of $125 million-$150 million, but in the final results, it was $200 million, which has far exceeded the guidance. In light of the recent conflicts in Middle East and the rising of crude oil and other commodity prices, how will these higher raw material price impact the Hog Production business in the U.S. in 2026? Such as the feed, the hogs, and how will that impact our profit per head in Hog Production? Given our hedging strategies and how much visibility we have for 2026 Hog Production. Secondly, related to the recent Senate bill on the Meat business, and the part, obviously, talked about the separation of different animal proteins, but also talked about the foreign investments in the U.S. meat industry.

What's the possibility that the bill will be passed by the U.S. Congress, and how long it will take for this to become a law? What will be the impact of this bill, and what measures is the company taking to address this potential risk?

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

To the first question. U.S. Hog Production had a fantastic 2025, and I think you quoted a number that was $200 million. It was actually $176 million, is where we finished the year. That's really a reflection of both improved operations and market conditions. Inherently in that, if you look at our raising costs year-over-year was down 4.8%, and that was really driven by an improvement in our weaned pig cost, which if you go back and reflect upon the things we've talked about from our genetic strategy to improve our weaned pig costs, we're really seeing that come through. That was down about 8.1%, and feed cost was down about 5%.

Those things combined, really drove that 4.8% decrease in raising costs, coupled with a really good hog market throughout 2025, allowed us to print earnings that were the best we've had since 2014. Xiaoming, I'll let you translate that.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

For 2026, we are seeing some impacts from some of the things that you pointed out. Crude oil is up, which is having an impact on corn. We've seen corn go up $0.20-$0.30 a bushel over just the past few weeks, which will have an impact on our raising cost. We've seen diesel prices increase from $3.50 back in January to close to $5 now. That's having an impact. What we're focused on is making sure we're efficient.

Continuing to execute the strategies that we've laid out on previous calls from the genetic side, from the feed efficiency, livability, health, all of those things that'll play in. We also use a number of hedging techniques, where we are able to buy corn and soybean meal contracts and sell hogs on the futures markets to help us lock in some margin where we see opportunity. We'll use a number of hedging techniques to help us make sure we're managing the business well. Right now, Mark, as you saw in the press release, we did lay out our guidance for next year. We think that guidance with what we know today is fully inclusive of any implications that we see on the horizon.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

I mean, to the second question, there are a number of bills that are making their way through Congress, and we're following all of those very closely. I think what's important for people to know is that when WH Group bought Smithfield, this was a CFIUS-approved transaction. Smithfield has been here for 90 years. Coming back to the U.S. stock market back in January, provides an additional level of transparency to all stakeholders, to let them know who we are and how we operate. While we're following those closely, we're concerned from a standpoint of seeing where this goes. I think the merits of Smithfield, how we operate, our relationship with WH Group, will stand up to any scrutiny we get. I'll let you translate that, and I'll talk about a couple of other things.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Smithfield is subject to the same laws and regulations that all American businesses are. I think what's important, again, for people to understand is as a company, we partner with thousands of independent American farmers from our facilities across 39 U.S. communities and across 18 states. We pay on average about $2.2 billion in wages to over 32,000 U.S. employees. We've made hundreds of millions of dollars of philanthropic contribution to all of the local communities that we operate in. We've recently announced an investment in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, that will be one of the largest investments in American agriculture ever. We are investing in the U.S., and I think as that fact pattern becomes more talked about and more recognized, it really positions Smithfield well as really contributing to the U.S. agricultural economy.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Thank you, Xiaoming.

Operator

[Non-English content]

Veronica Song
Analyst, UBS

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Speaker 16

[Non-English content] Two questions from the UBS. The first one on China's hog price, what will be the outlook of hog price for 2026? Given the recent unexpected sharp decline, there is some speculation that some more capacity will exit the industry, which will force the price to bottom out. What's the outlook from Shuanghui? And secondly, on Europe, as mentioned, there are a lot of uncertainties in the economy, in the commodity prices as a result of the recent events. How will that impact the cost structure for the European business? Luis, maybe we'll defer to you after Shuanghui has answered the first part.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

[Non-English content]

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

[Non-English content]

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

[Non-English content]

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

[Non-English content]

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

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Speaker 16

This is Shuanghui CEO Mr. Ma. With respect to the outlook of hog price in China, based on the information we have, we are of the view that the average price in 2026 will be lower than 2025, approximately 10% lower. We believe the price in the first half will be lower, and there will be some recovery in the second half. We do not believe the recent sharp decline in hog prices will force a lot of capacity to exit the market, because currently there are a lot of large industrialized hog producers in China. The short-term fluctuations in hog prices will not impact their overall capacity strategies. We do not believe the hog price recovery will be very steep. Luis, maybe you want to take the second question relates to Europe cost structure.

Luis Cerdan
CEO, Morliny Foods

Thanks, Xiaoming. Related to the impact of the Iran war in our business in Europe, we already see the increase in prices in fuel, gas and electricity. We have some coverage for the year, but the impact in our cost will depend on the duration of the actual situation in Middle East. We can see in medium term some increase in grain cost, but we have some positions too in the grain cost. Like we were doing in the past with the energy crisis and inflation crisis after the Ukrainian war start, we have measures to mitigate this potential inflation situation with commercial action, mix optimization, and productivity programs and efficiency programs that we were investing during the last years to try to optimize the energy use in all our manufacturing plants. Thank you.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

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Speaker 14

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Speaker 16

Two questions, both related to China business. First is, given the assumption that the hog prices will continue to be depressed in 2026, how will that impact the Hog Production and the Fresh Pork business in China in 2026? Secondly, the Packaged Meats profit per ton has a small decline in the fourth quarter 2025, whereas the volume has been flat, and the company has a good outlook for Packaged Meats volume in 2026. What's the latest progress in terms of the various measures have taken in terms of products and channels?

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Ma Xiangjie
CEO, Shuanghui

[Non-English content]

Speaker 16

With respect to Hog Production and Fresh Pork. For Fresh Pork, currently the China market is still very fragmented. There are more than 5,000 players and for the top players, the combined market share is less than 10%. In the next few years, there will be consolidation of Fresh Pork in China. We want to take advantage of lower hog prices to expand our market shares. With this idea in mind, we will not be too fixed on the profit per head, and we will try to expand our scale while maintaining a moderate level of profitability. For Hog Production, it's still a relatively underperforming business of Shuanghui. In 2025, it was loss-making. In 2026, we expect the raising cost will decline, but the hog price will also decline. Likely we will continue to incur loss, but the loss will narrow.

In the future, we may also opportunistically expand the scale of Hog Production, but not in a capital-intensive way. We'll partner with other hog producers to lock in the hog supplies to support our Fresh Pork and packaged business, to enhance the competitiveness of our overall business platform.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Cao Junsheng
VP, Shuanghui

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Speaker 16

The response on the Packaged Meats from Shuanghui Vice President, Mr. Cao, responsible for Packaged Meat business. Last year, if we look at the Packaged Meats volume by quarter, the first quarter was weak, the second quarter and third quarter stabilized, and in fourth quarter, we recorded moderate or small growth. In 2026, our outlook is that the growth will be more meaningful for the following five reasons. Number one, we have seen sequential improvement quarter by quarter in 2025 because we have made a lot of reforms. For example, in professionalize or specialize our sales force and the effect of these reforms are taking effect, are being realized gradually over time. Secondly, we are encouraged by the strong growth in the new channels, which has achieved more than 30% year-over-year growth in 2025, with 25% share of our overall mix.

Its performance was also improving quarter-over-quarter in 2025. Thirdly, in light of the K-shaped consumption pattern in the market, we have launched value-for-money products, which has exhibited strong growth momentum in 2025. Number four, we are also increasing our efforts in digitalizing our marketing, which will help us to have a more precise marketing strategy executions and to have a better effect in the overall marketing. Fourthly, we have also a lot of innovations in our channels. We have launched some pilot programs which have achieved encouraging results, and we will continue to have a very accurate and enforceable support of different markets based on their local conditions.

With all these factors considered, we are confident in the meaningful growth in Packaged Meats volumes in 2026, and we hope that will also be reflected in the quarterly results that will be announced in a couple of weeks. [Non-English content ]

Speaker 13

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Speaker 16

Two questions from CICC on the U.S. business. First relates to the U.S. Hog Production. We have noticed a significant decline in the volumes compared to 2024, which was consistent with our Hog Production capacity rationalization. What's the latest progress in the capacity rationalization? What's the kind of targets or plans going forward for Hog Production capacity? Secondly, relates to the U.S. Packaged Meats. We noticed the decline in profit per metric ton in 2025, primarily driven by the high raw material cost. What's the latest outlook for Packaged Meats in 2026, both profit and volume?

Shane Smith
President and CEO, Smithfield Foods

Okay, Xiaoming, I'll take the first one and then Mark can take the second one. As it relates to Hog Production, in 2025, we produced 11.1 million hogs internally. That's down from about 17.6 million at the high of 2019, and down from the 14.6 million that we produced in 2024. Saying that all was part of our overall rationalization process. We do expect, as we look at 2026, that we'll be up slightly above that 11.1 million, really due to two things. One is productivity increases. As we've invested in genetics and health, we're seeing some productivity growth.

Second, keep in mind, for us in our fiscal year, there's a 53rd week in 2026. But I will tell you, over the medium term, we are still targeting a reduction in our overall hog capacity to 10 million hogs, roughly 10 million hogs, and that would be about 30% of what Fresh Pork needs. We think this is the optimal balance to keep that assured supply coming into the plants. Also balancing that the overall commodities at risk management. We will continue over the medium term to work towards that 10 million and 30%.

Again, as we look at 2026, we do expect it to be up slightly again due to the productivity increases that are coming from our current internal production and from that 53rd week that we'll see in 2026. Xiaoming, I will let you translate and then I'll hand it to Mark to talk on the Packaged Meats question.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

[Non-English content]

Mark Hall
CFO, Smithfield Foods

On the Packaged Meats question. You're correct. We did experience significantly higher raw material markets in 2025 to the tune of about $525 million, which we were able to successfully offset a portion of through price and mix improvements. Certainly had an impact in terms of pressuring our margins per metric ton. We do anticipate some relief in the raw material markets as we move into 2026. We're still faced with a very cautious consumer with high rates of inflation in the U.S. What we saw in 2025 is expected to continue as we start 2026 with that cautious consumer trading down across the branded portfolio and in some cases into Private Label. Again, that really speaks to the strength of Smithfield's brands with brands that meet that consumer wherever they are within their pricing constraints.

We do have about 40% of our business in Retail and Private Label. If they are trading out of branded and into Private Label, they're likely picking up a product that is produced by Smithfield. We'll continue to focus on improving our mix and moving away from that more commoditized offering, so think of the seasonal ham business and into everyday use occasions of our Packaged Meats business at a higher margin. I'd say the long-term algorithm is still intact for the Packaged Meats business, which includes continuing to improve that mix and improving the profitability in total and on a per metric ton basis. It's just really attributed to that cautious consumer right now.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

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Speaker 15

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Speaker 16

The question from JP Morgan on the European business. In the last couple of years, European business or Morliny has made a couple of acquisitions to expand the footprints, and are trying to build a platform as scalable as Shuanghui or Smithfield, but obviously it's still relatively small. Apart from these acquisitions, what's the organic growth in Morliny, and what's the constraints for the organic growth in European markets? Also, what's the Group's overall strategy going forward for Europe? Luis, you may want to take a first step.

Luis Cerdan
CEO, Morliny Foods

Yes, thank you. Thank you for the question. The organic growth in the last year, we were growing 5% in our Fresh Pork business and 7% in our Food business, in volume. In our Packaged Meat business, we have a small decline of volumes, and the inorganic growth was giving us a total growth of 3%. I mean that still we are growing, like Chairman was mentioning our strategy in our Poultry business. In our Packaged Meat business, we are growing too, organically, through investing in some of the categories that we believe are future categories for us, like ready meals, convenience food. Through M&A in the future, and I was mentioning the last calls, our main strategy is still Packaged Meat business in Europe, Poultry business and some areas like pet food, that we have some acquisitions that still we have some possibilities to grow in the European market.

Zhou Xiaoming
VP, WH Group

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