Morning and good evening, ladies and gentlemen. This is Justin from ASMPT, and I am moderating today's call. Before we begin, let me pass the mic to Robin. Robin.
Hello everyone. I'd like to take this opportunity to acknowledge and honor our late Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Romeo Singh, who passed away very suddenly about two weeks ago. Many of you have known Romeo personally or been familiar with him hosting this investor relations call or during investor meetings and roadshows. The ASMPT team here and I are all shocked and saddened by his departure and miss him very much. I hope you'll join me in taking a moment to remember our colleague and friend. Thank you. Let me pass the time back to our moderator.
Thank you, Robin. On behalf of ASMPT Limited, welcome to our Q4 2024 Investor Conference call. Thank you all for your interest and continued support. Please note that all participants will be in listen-only mode when the management is presenting. We will start the Q&A session after the presentation. During the Q&A session, priority will be given to the covering analysts. Let me go through our disclaimer. Please do note that there may be forward-looking statements about the company's performance and finances during this call. Such forward-looking statements could involve known and unknown uncertainties and risks that could cause actual results and performance events to differ materially from those expressed or implied during this conference call.
For your reference, the investor relations presentation for our recent results is available on our website. On today's call, we have the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Robin Ng, the Group Chief Executive Officer, and Ms. Katie Xu, the Group Chief Financial Officer. Robin will cover the group's highlights, outlook, and next quarter's guidance, while Katie will provide details on the financial performance. With this, let me hand over the time to Robin. Robin.
Good morning and good evening, everyone. It is a pleasure to have you all on our earnings conference call for the Q4 and the full year of 2024. I would also like to mention that ASMPT is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year. We have come a long way from our roots in 1975. Thank you all for your support as we continue enabling the digital world. Let me now proceed with the rest of our agenda this morning. Key highlights. In 2024, momentum for logic and memory packaging applications was driven by strong demand for generative AI and high-performance computing-related Semiconductors. Our advanced packaging solution emerged as a key beneficiary of this accelerating AI adoption. AP Solutions delivered a strong performance, increasing revenue by 23% year on year and demonstrating significant future potential by achieving key milestones.
In particular, the group's thermal compression bonding (TCB) solutions won further orders with multiple customers across logic and high bandwidth memory (HBM) during the year and delivered its highest yearly revenue and bookings in 2024. The breakthrough in HBM led to a significant increase in overall bookings for TCB year on year. We remain optimistic that our business is well positioned to capitalize on the significant growth of the market, which we will talk about later on, along with our projections for the total addressable market size. The trend of generative AI will continue to bolster the demand for AP solutions, and the group remains focused on growing its AP business as it enhances product offerings to support the technology roadmaps of major AI players. Lastly, we are fully prepared to seize opportunities in Semi-mainstream packaging and SMT when the market recovers. Advanced packaging.
With that overview, let me go into more detail about our advanced packaging solutions. As the most exciting part of our unique block-based portfolio and the one with the greatest growth potential, our AP business increased its revenue contribution from 22% in 2023 to nearly 30% of the group's revenue in 2024. We are confident about the prospects of our AP business. We estimate the total addressable market for AP to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 18%, reaching approximately $4 billion in 2029 from about $1.8 billion in 2024, driven by AI and HPC applications. Advanced Packaging CoWoS opportunities. This is a new slide that sets out our portfolio of CoWoS packaging solutions. On the left, it's a graphic that sets out how memory and logic chips fit into the CoWoS structure.
We are the clear leader for CoWoS packaging solutions, and I will spend some time on this slide to explain our solutions and unparalleled technology capabilities. Our portfolio includes a range of high-precision bonding solutions across TCB, hybrid bonding, and mass reflow tools, all designed to meet the diverse interconnect requirements. Let's start with the top of the slide, our TCB solutions for HBM. The group secured substantial TCB orders from major HBM players, particularly in the second half of 2024. A key milestone of the bulk TCB order wins was achieved in Q4 2024 with a leading memory IDM to support its HBM3E 12-high HVM, high-volume manufacturing demand ramp. Shipments under the bulk order commenced in Q4 2024 and are in line with the customer's ramp-up plan.
I'm pleased to share that more recently, in this quarter, we secured an initial order of several tools from another global HBM player. We are also in advanced discussion for repeat orders with multiple customers, which strengthens the group's confidence to gain market share in this thriving HBM market. A key value proposition of the group's TCB tools is their ability to seamlessly upgrade to fluxless applications for 12-high and beyond, offering fungibility to handle different HBM packaging processes. These tools have best-in-class die placement accuracy and ultra-fine pitch bonding capabilities and can also handle ultra-thin dies of below 30 microns at a chip gap below 10 microns. For chip-to-substrate TCB, towards the bottom of the slide, the group secured substantial TCB orders from its leading foundry customer and the customer's OSAT partner.
Serving as the sole supplier of TCB tools for chip-to-substrate applications for these customers, the group delivered high-volume shipments of TCB tools in 2024 and expects a continuation of strong order momentum into 2025. At a couple of points in this slide, you will see a reference to TCB fluxless. This refers to our next-generation active oxide remover, or AOR fluxless TCB. Our engagement with a leading foundry customer for ultra-fine pitch chip-to-wafer logic applications is progressing well. The tool has demonstrated robust performance and is currently undergoing volume manufacturing qualification at the customer's site. With the ability to achieve bond accuracy below 1 micron and ultra-fine pitch bonding below 15 microns, the AOR fluxless process enhances package reliability. The process is completely residue-free, which is crucial since residue can degrade chip performance over time.
In addition, the tools offer a total cost of ownership advantage by eliminating the need for downstream cleaning operations to remove residue, salts, formic acid, and other corrosive elements. For Mass Reflow, or MR, the group's high-precision flip chip bonding tools are utilized in the Mass Reflow process at the leading foundry and OSAT. The group is expecting further order flow for its tools in 2025 as MR is expected to remain the POR in the near term for these customers, while the AOR fluxless TCB tool awaits qualification. Featuring placement accuracy of 1.5 microns and bond pitch below 30 microns, these tools have been gaining traction in AI and HPC applications, which require varying degrees of accuracy across cloud and data centers.
As flip chip and TCB tools are expected to coexist together, the group is positioned to capture opportunities in both technologies, engaging leading foundry, HBM, and OSAT customers for both chip-to-wafer and chip-to-substrate applications. Finally, within hybrid bonding, or HB, the group achieved a major milestone in Q3 2024 with the delivery of its first HB tool to a logic customer. During the year, the group also secured million orders for two next-generation HB tools for HBM applications. These tools are set for delivery by mid-2025 and have enhanced capabilities such as improved placement accuracy, reduced bonding pitch, significantly higher throughput, and a more compact tool footprint. The group's HB order wins in 2024 demonstrate a strong recognition of its technology and competitiveness in this emerging solution. The group is confident in securing more orders in the coming quarters, positioning itself favorably to capitalize on the high-volume manufacturing demand ramp.
So to summarize this slide, we have comprehensive solutions across MR, TCB, and HB tools. We have deep involvement with multiple key customers across logic and HBM. Finally, and very importantly, we also have unparalleled technology capabilities. Today, for the first time, we are presenting our estimated total addressable market of TCB, a market that has significant growth potential estimated at $1 billion in 2027 and one that we continue to be excited about. This continued rapid expansion of the TCB market is supported by accelerated AI adoption. Our projection of $1 billion in 2027, at a CAGR of more than 45% since 2024, will be driven by both logic and memory applications. As we said earlier, we achieved record TCB revenue and bookings in 2024. That makes us the current leader in the overall TCB market.
We are the market leader in logic applications, and we achieved a breakthrough into HBM market through a Q4 2024 bulk order. The group is also currently in substantive engagement with multiple HBM players. Looking ahead, we are targeting market share in this expanded market of between 35% to 40%, leveraging our industry-leading technologies for AP interconnects, which set us apart from competitors and our significant entrenchment in the AI customer base. Let's move on to our photonics and co-packaged optics, or CPO, solutions. As you can see on the left side of this slide, packaging is evolving rapidly to keep up with the ever-increasing bandwidth demands. Our solutions are key here, especially when it comes to accurate die placement and lens attachment. The rapid growth of AI is driving bandwidth needs in data centers, which in turn is fueling demand for faster optical transceivers and CPOs.
Our market-leading photonic solutions have the best-in-class placement accuracy below 3 microns and the highest throughput in the industry. We expect continued strong momentum because of our leadership position among all the major global transceivers market. Let's look at the CPO now. This is a game changer. Our silicon photonic solutions have established a significant edge in CPO assembly through their leading high-precision bonding solutions. We have achieved an exceptional placement accuracy of 0.2 microns, which is essential for the precise integration of optical and electronic components. Plus, our system is highly capable of handling multiple bonding processes. While the CPO market is still in the early phase, the group's position as a photonics leader and its active collaboration with leading CPO players globally put us ahead of the competition.
We are well positioned to deliver high-precision, reliable, and efficient CPO assembly solutions, which sets us up perfectly to capture market share in the future. Not shown on the slide, but for completeness, we wanted to update you on our System-in-Package, or SiP business, within AP. SMT won strong orders in the first half for its SiP solution, mainly from leading global high-end smartphone players for radio frequency modules and wearables. In addition, the group has been engaging multiple customers with its next-generation tools. These next-generation tools are gaining traction for AI and server-related applications, with shipments to leading foundry and OSAT players. The group expects more orders in the coming quarters. Automotive. Moving to end markets, our automotive end market application accounted for the largest proportion of the group's revenue in 2024, at about 20%.
Even as the markets softened, our comprehensive range of automotive solutions encompassing electrification, sensor technology, displays, and high-speed data transfer continued to contribute strongly, with significant revenues coming from both Semi and Semi 's contribution came from solutions serving various areas of the automotive supply chain, including technology packaging capabilities in power and electrification, specifically silicon carbide modules and high-end LED headlamps. SMT deftly navigated ongoing softness in the automotive market and maintained a strong position via continued engagement with a significant in-stock customer base. We have been actively engaging a growing number of leading automotive customers, including prominent EV players and leading subcontractors. These engagements across a significant proportion of the automotive ecosystem enable us to quickly scale when future demand ramps up, driven by the industry electrification trend.
Looking ahead, we estimate the total addressable market for automotive end market applications to grow from approximately $1.3 billion in 2024 to $2.1 billion in 2029, at a CAGR of about 11%. With those highlights, let me now pass the time over to Katie, who will talk about our group and segment performance.
Katie. Thank you, Robin. Good morning and good evening, everyone. This slide covers the group's key financial metrics for the full year of 2024. In 2024, the group delivered revenue of $1.7 billion, a decline of 10% year on year, mainly impacted by SMT as its revenue declined at 22.9% year on year, while Semi registered 6.9% revenue growth year on year, contributing about 51% of group revenue. Group bookings were at $1.6 billion at the end of 2024, an increase of 4% year on year.
Semi registered 36.7% year-on-year growth in bookings, driven by AP, including strong contributions from TCB solutions, which offset a decline of 21.2% year-on-year in bookings from SMT. The group ended the year with a backlog of $779 million, a decline of 8.5% year-on-year. Group gross margin was up by 70 basis points to 40% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase of 418 basis points in Semi's gross margin. This was partially offset by a decline of 346 basis points in SMT's gross margin. With lower revenue and a flat OPEX, the group's operating profit declined by 49.4% year-on-year to HKD 58.3 million. In line with reduced revenue and operating profit, the group adjusted net profit declined 42.8% year-on-year to HKD 426 million. Adjusted earnings per share was HKD 1.04, a decrease of 42.9% year-on-year.
The group's total dividend payment for the year will be HKD 0.67 per share, which I will explain more later. We had a strong balance sheet at the end of 2024 with strong cash and a bank deposit of HKD 5.1 billion, compared to HKD 4.8 billion at the end of 2023. Our net cash was HKD 2.4 billion. Before we move on to Q4 financials, I would like to highlight that in 2024, we made incremental investment of HKD 180 million into infrastructure and AP solutions. As Robin has highlighted, we firmly believe that AP is a strategic growth area with significant upside potential, and we are prioritizing R&D resources and capacity investments to further strengthen our leading position. This year, in 2025, we plan to continue the investment to the tune of about HKD 350 million for strategic investments in AP R&D and infrastructure.
With that, we expect OpEx to be marginally higher than previous years. In the Q4 of 2024, the group achieved a revenue of $ 437.6 million. The number grew 1.8% quarter on quarter, and it was flat year on year. Group bookings of $ 419.4 million were up 2.8% quarter on quarter and 19.2% year on year, mainly due to strong AP bookings for Semi, but partially offset by the decline in SMT. As mentioned just now, the group ended the year with a backlog of $ 779 million, a decline of 3.3% quarter on quarter. Group gross margin of 37.2% was a decline of 379 basis points quarter on quarter and 508 basis points year on year. With reduced gross margin, the group's operating profit of HKD 5 million was down 97.1% quarter on quarter and 97.3% year on year.
The group's adjusted net profit was HKD 82 million, an increase of 177.5% quarter on quarter and 7.2% year on year due to foreign exchange gain. Adjusted earnings per share was HKD 0.20, up by 150% quarter on quarter and 11.1% year on year. On this slide, let me give you more color on the key financials. In the Q4 of 2024, group revenue was above the midpoint of revenue guidance. As Robin has highlighted, the strong demand for AP solutions contributed to the improved Semi performance, with revenue growth of 24.1% year on year to $ 254.3 million, while the group's SMT business was impacted by continued softness in the overall market. For bookings, Semi registered a 73.3% year-on-year growth, mainly driven by AP, whereas the SMT segment saw a decline of 25.9% year on year as automotive and industrial end markets remained weak.
Group's gross margin year on year and "decline" was due to both Semi and SMT segments, which I'll explain more in the next two slides. For the Q4 of 2024, Semi reported a 10.5% increase in revenue quarter on quarter, totaling $ 254.3 million, which represented a 24.1% increase year on year. The IC discrete business unit had a steady quarter on quarter growth, with the highest revenue growth contribution from AP. The optoelectronics business unit had a quarter on quarter decline, mainly due to weakness in advanced displays. The CIS business unit's revenue remained flat quarter on quarter at a low level, with reduced revenue from high-end smartphone applications due to seasonality. Semi bookings were up by 16.0% quarter on quarter to $ 277.1 million in Q4 2024, mainly driven by AP, with bulk TCB orders from a major HBM maker.
Semi's book-to-bill ratio remained above one for full year 2024. Moreover, its quarterly bookings continued to show year-on-year improvements since Q4 2023, recording strong year-on-year growth of 73.3% for this quarter, driven mainly by AP. Semi's gross margin of 42.6% for Q4 2024 was down 594 basis points quarter on quarter, mainly due to product mix, high base in Q3, and the sale of a first-of-a-kind deposition tool to break into the emerging glass substrate market with a major IDM customer. Gross margin was down by 115 basis points year on year. Lastly, Semi's profit was HKD 74.7 million in the Q4, a decline of 47.1% quarter on quarter.
Moving on to the SMT business, SMT delivered a revenue of $183.2 million in the Q4 of 2024, a decline of 8.4% quarter on quarter and 21.3% year on year, in line with ongoing softness in SMT's overall market. Segment bookings of $ 142.3 million followed a similar trend, down 15.8% quarter on quarter and 25.9% year on year. The automotive and industrial end markets continued to remain weak for SMT. SMT's gross margin of 29.7% for the Q4 was a decline of 260 basis points quarter on quarter and 1,130 basis points year on year. Margin was adversely impacted by lower sales volume and product mix. SMT segment profit was HKD 19.9 million in Q4 2024. This slide highlights the ASMPT's management's best estimates of revenue breakdown by end market applications for 2024 compared with 2023.
These end markets highlight the extent of our broad-based portfolio and our exposure to diverse end market applications. Automotive continued to be the highest contributor to the group revenue at approximately 20%, despite the overall softness in this market, particularly in the second half of the year. The group's comprehensive range of automotive solutions and a strong customer base contributed to this end market's performance. Consumer end markets were the second highest contributing to group's revenue at about 16%, with year-on-year revenue growth coming mostly from SEMI mainstream solutions, in line with higher revenue from China market. Communication end market contributed 15% to group revenue. Year-on-year revenue growth was boosted by demand in photonics and high-end smartphone-related applications. Computer end market maintained its year-on-year revenue contribution to the group's revenue at approximately 12%, with the highest contribution from TCB solutions.
Industrial saw its revenue contribution decline to about 12%, in line with weak market conditions. Lastly, the other category includes revenue from spares and services and other applications, accounting for 25%. This contribution has remained stable year on year. As you can see from this slide, we are a truly global business that partners with customers all over the world. China recorded year-on-year revenue growth, and its share of group revenue increased from 31% to 38%. Revenues from both Europe and America declined year on year, mainly due to market softness in SMT. Europe's share of group revenue declined from 28% to 19%, and America's from 18% to 16%. Customer concentration risk continued to be low for the group, as its top five customers accounted for approximately 14% of total revenue in 2024. We remain fully committed to enhancing shareholder value.
We have an existing dividend policy of distributing about 50% of its annual profits as dividends. For 2024, the board has recommended a final dividend of HKD 7 per share in line with this policy. In addition, the board has also recommended a special dividend of HKD 25 per share to shareholders. Together with the interim dividend of HKD 35 per share paid in August 2024, the total dividend payment for the year 2024 will be HKD 0.67 per share. Let me now pass the time back to Robin for our outlook and the Q1 2025 revenue guidance.
Thank you, Katie. As 2025 unfolds, strong momentum in the group's TCB solutions for AI and HPC applications is expected to continue to drive overall AP revenue growth. As such, we see our AP solutions constituting a greater proportion of our group revenue. The substantial progress the group's TCB solutions have made in logic and memory applications further cements our status as the TCB market leader.
Looking at the near term, the group's AP revenue growth will be offset by ongoing weakness in mainstream markets, particularly automotive and industrial. As such, we expect Q1 2025 revenue to be between $370 to 430 million, flat year on year and down 9% Q on Q at midpoint. This concludes our Q4 and a full year 2024 presentation. Thank you, and we are now ready for Q&A. Let me pass the mic to Justin to facilitate.
Thank you, Robin. Let us now proceed with the Q&A session. For asking questions, please either use the raise hand function or type your question in the chat to ASMPT Q&A. Please ask your questions one at a time and limit to one question at each turn. Thank you. I'll start with Wen Chuen. You may unmute and ask your question.
Thanks, guys, for taking my question. So I'm extremely saddened by the passing of Romeo. I just wanted to pay my respects once again briefly before I move on. Yeah. So essentially, my question is regarding your time disclosure into 2026 and 2027. I know this is a big step up into 2027 from 2026 of about $500 million-$1 billion. So my question is really, where do you see that big step-up? It seems to me that given the timeline, you're assuming TCB adoption in new end markets. Maybe it could be auto and logic, or maybe it could be other AI devices. So my question to you is, is that so? What has changed materially from the last quarter in terms of what you're seeing from a roadmap perspective in foundry? Thank you.
Yeah, Wen Chuen. This is Justin. I just want to ask your question. You're asking about the time disclosure that we have put, and it is a big step up. I'll pass this question to Robin, Katie, to address.
Maybe I'll just say a quick word on the way that we come up with the TAM estimate, and then Robin will put more color to it. Wen Chuen, we basically undertook a systematic process, right, using the industry research and our own estimates to come up with the TAM. The basis is really the CoWoS wafer number in the market, and that's market data. You guys probably have access to various versions of it. That's the starting point.
And then we used the certain market research and our knowledge to convert them into the number of interconnects as required with certain assumptions of CPH. So with that, we also coupled that with the knowledge that we have with our customers, our potential customers, to estimate the TCB adoption rates across logic and HBM. Then after that, we factored the ASP evolution based on the progressive adoption of advanced solutions such as TCB AOR. So that's kind of the methodology that's behind those numbers. So as you were looking at the stepping up, it could be driven by either the number of wafers, the adoption rate, et cetera, right? So now I'll pass the mic to Robin for more color.
Hi, Wen Chuen. Thanks for your question. In terms of application market or the end market, because our projection is up to 2027, the way we see is that the TAM increase can be attributed to four. One is the increasing adoption of TCB as the HBM memory market migrates from 12-high to 16-high, and even eventually 20-high, which is that would be further down the road. And also, we see the increasing adoption of TCB for chip-to-wafer applications for logic. As we have been saying many times before, as industry continues to pack more and more chiplets, more and more HBM onto the interposer, increasingly, TCB will be the tool of choice. And in particular, the fluxless operation will be the tool that will be needed to package such AI chip going forward. We hope that answers your question, Wen Chuen.
Yeah, thanks, Robin. Thanks, Katie. Just a quick follow-up. Just saw that additional $500 million, fair to say, mainly driven by logic. I mean, obviously, there's some increase in high bandwidth memory. Is that a fair statement?
I would say more coming from HBM than the logic side. Yeah.
Okay. Thank you.
Goku, you may unmute yourself. Goku, we can hear you. Goku, are you speaking?
Hi. Hello. Can you hear me?
Yeah, now we can. Yes.
Hi. Good morning. And just passing on our team's condolences as well on Romeo's passing. Maybe first one on the TCB projection that you have provided, Robin and Katie, just one clarification. Does it include the Flip Chip MR solutions that you're shipping for on-substrate or Chip-on-Substrate for the leading foundry? Is that part of the estimate, or do you consider that more as a Flip Chip tool and not really a TCB tool?
Yes, you're right. That's not a TCB tool. That's more the Mass Reflow. So that calculation is not included here, Goku.
Okay. Understood. But that is still part of your AP revenue?
Yes, it's part of our AP revenue for sure. Yeah.
Okay. Thanks, Robin. So my question to start with is on HBM. Could we talk a little bit about what is the progress with your first customer? I think you basically indicate that you are a POR or a process of record for this customer, looks like in your slide deck. That means that our confidence on repeat order should be fairly high. How should we think about the repeat orders from this customer for HBM, given that you're probably going to be done shipping the first batch of tools by sometime in Q1 or Q2?
Yes. Yes, you're right. Goku, we'll be done shipping by end of Q1. In fact, the progress is good. We have installed most of the tools by now at customer sites. Of course, customers are undergoing a qualification at this point in time. So yes, I think we are definitely pleased with this development. With this entry into these important customers, I think we have established ourselves a good name in terms of HBM market.
I think the industry is recognizing that if we're able to supply to this leading customer, we are good enough for most of the HBM players globally. Yeah, I think in short, the development is good. The progress is good. Thank you.
And do you think what is your confidence on repeat order from this customer? Because there's a lot of noise in the market, including some of your competitors saying that this was a one-time order and you're not going to get a repeat order. So just wanted to address what is your confidence on the repeat order from this customer?
We are definitely confident. We are definitely confident of our own technology. As we said many times, we believe the reason we won this order, although we are not incumbent, is customer like our technology. They know that we have a technology that is scalable. We have been saying also before that as the industry moved from 12 high to 16 high and beyond, we strongly believe that the industry has to migrate to what we call a fluxless solution.
And we strongly believe that in terms of fluxless solution, as we have also mentioned in our conference call in our MD&A, we're in a good position to provide an active oxide removal solution, as the industries continue to scale up in terms of accuracy, the demand for accuracy continues to scale up, the bonding pitch continues to tighten. We believe our AOR technology would be best suited for such development going forward.
Understood. Thanks, Robin. Last question for me is on your logic fluxless or foundry fluxless TCB qualification. I think you classify that as undergoing qualification right now.
Yes.
There has been some kind of indications that one of your competitors has actually already got qualification for this chip-on-wafer portion. What is your expectation? Do you expect to ship tools in 2025 if your competitor is a POR for this tool? Is it going to kind of preclude ASMPT from shipping into this customer? And also on COW versus COS, I think Robin you'd said COW is probably a much bigger market than COS in terms of addressable market. Is that still your current evaluation? Thank you.
Yeah, let me address your question by question first. In terms of our progress, we are progressing well. As far as we know, unless we don't know, but as far as we know, the customer has not made a decision which tool they will go for. So we are still in the running for sure. We are progressing well in terms of qualification and the customer side. Now, yes, in terms of market size, down the road in the future, for sure, we see chip-on-wafer potentially could be a larger market size compared to chip-on-substrate market.
But in 2025, the way we see is that the volume, even if we get qualified, we're chosen as a POR, the volume for chip-to-wafer at the logic space in 2025 will not be significant because the current POR process, which is MR, is still the process of choice at this point in time. But increasingly, as I mentioned earlier, as the industry moves towards more and more chiplets, more and more HBM stacks, and also more and more IPD, I think it's inevitable at some point, maybe in 2026, we will see more adoption of chip-to-wafer fluxless tool at the logic side. So I think this is an assessment at this point in time. Goku, do I answer all your questions?
Yeah, that is clear. Maybe one last thing is, so do you expect to ship to this foundry customer for fluxless for COW this year? Is that still the expectation?
Yes, yes, definitely. Definitely. We are hopeful that definitely if we win the qualification, for sure, the order should come in. But as I said, the order will not be substantial in 2025.
Fair enough. Yeah. Thank you. Thanks, Robin.
Okay. Doni, you may unmute yourself.
Romeo's left. And my first question is regarding to some housekeeping numbers. So I think, Robin, could you give us some color about the booking trend into the Q1 by different businesses? And also in terms of the gross margin, I think could you elaborate more on the gross margin in the Q4 is like because I think we have delivered some HBM TCB shipment, but inevitably, our semiconductor business gross margin still declines sequentially, while SMT looks like to be worse. So what could be the possible gross margin trend into the coming quarters as well? So this is the first one. Thank you.
Thanks. So, Doni, the Q1 booking highlight colors will be addressed by Robin. The GM question will go to Katie. We'll start with Robin first.
Thank you, Doni, for your question. Now, bookings color, we think Q on Q for Q1 versus Q4 last year will be kind of flat sequentially. There are a couple of reasons here. You recall we booked a significant bulk order of TCB tools in Q4 for HBM. Now, I think you guys should appreciate that such order cannot continue to repeat order after quarter. So for that reason, we see semi down, but slightly propped up by some improvement in semi mainstream bookings. I would say Q1 typically for mainstream semi tend to be higher than Q4. So it's some kind of seasonality.
So in short, Semi we see kind of down because of AP, but propped up slightly by Semi mainstream bookings. However, for SMT, we do sort of guide, in Q4 and Q3 earnings call, that Q4 bookings for SMT will be at a low point. Indeed, that's true that we are confident that SMT bookings for Q1 will be up, led primarily by its AP bookings. We are still pretty strong in terms of SiP solutions, which are typically more front-end loaded. That's the kind of seasonality we expect.
Thank you.
Katie.
So, Doni, before I start talking about the margin, I just want to make a note there. You mentioned about the bulk order for HBM player in Q4. So as Robin mentioned earlier, in Q4 and Q1, we've been shipping to the customer. However, there's no revenue recognized for this bulk order in Q4. Okay?
I just want to put this clarification out there. Now, coming to the gross margin in Q4 for semi, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, there are three drivers. First, if you recall, in Q3 last quarter, we mentioned that semi had a really strong margin in Q3 2024 due to the risk build for the same bulk order we just mentioned. Manufacturing utilization was abnormally high. So that was one of the reasons that our Q3 margin was higher. So this created a high base for Q4 comparison. Secondly, product mix in Q4 was unfavorable due to consumer-related products. And then lastly, again, I mentioned in the opening remarks, we are developing a new deposition technology to break into the emerging glass substrate market with a major IDM customer.
In Q4, we recognized the revenue on the tool for this kind of what we call a first-of-a-kind tool, but with no margin. So these are the three negative drivers that caused the Q4 Semi margin to be on the lower side.
Understood. And just a quick follow-up on Katie, your explanation. So for the gross margin of non-wafer TCB or HBM TCB, do you think that may carry higher than Semi business average gross margin in the coming quarters? And my second question is regarding to your long-term TCB TAM estimate. So from 2025 to 2027, in terms of the dynamics, are you seeing stronger HBM TAM growth or logic market growth? I just want to have a sense about how the dynamics in between these two different markets from 2025 to 2027, which one will be going faster? Thank you.
To address your gross margin question, the subsequent question on semi, Robin will address. Katie.
So on the question for gross margin for the HBM shipment, Doni, as we communicated, and I think we've been consistent, that for the advanced packaging TCB specifically type of products, the margin is accretive to semi and group margin rate. And Robin, I'll let you take the floor.
Sure. So, Doni, on the semi question as to what's the driver from the HBM application, I actually answered earlier, but maybe it's worth repeating. The way we see in the near term from 2025 to 2027, the main driver in terms of the semi growth for TCB, a few things. One is we see increasing adoption of TCB for HBM application.
As the industry move, as I said, from 12 high to 16 high to 20 high, I think HBM solution will be sorry, TCB solution will be the tool of choice. So that's quite a clear trend. Now, secondly, chip-to-wafer migration from current MR process to TCB, that is also a kind of trend that we see coming in the next couple of years. And of course, also the continued adoption of TCB for chip-to-substrate application as AI acceleration continues. I hope that explained to you how we see the TCB growth, what are the drivers. Doni?
Okay. Sunny, you're up next. You may unmute and ask your question.
Thank you very much. Good morning. Very sorry about Romeo's passing. So my question, number one, want to start from TCB as well. And so within the 30% sales for advanced packaging in 2024, could you let us know roughly how much is from TCB? And then you have this 35%-40% market share target for TCB. I wonder what's your share assumption for HBM and logic respectively, and how do you come up with that 35%-40% market share?
Sunny, I just want to be clear with your first question. Is it how much does TCB contribute to the 2024 AP?
The 4 billion. Talk about 4 billion, right? The 2029 number, is that what you're asking?
2024.
Yeah. For your own revenue, you quantify AP at 30% of total sales. So I want to know how much TCB contribute to the total sales.
Yeah. So we cannot be too granular here, I hope, Sunny, because they'll be giving a lot of information away. But I can safely say that TCB is the main driver for the growth in terms of AP. Yeah.
Got it. And then the second part of the question is the market share target that you put as 35%-40% for TCB. So I want to know what's your logic behind.
Yeah. I think there's certain logic, but as I said, we also cannot be too transparent here because of competition reasoning. But lastly, our confidence is really grounded on the fact that we are the leading TCB for chip-to-substrate. Now that we have broken into HBM in a big way. And by the way, I don't know you guys have missed it, but we also disclosed last time that in the recent quarter in Q1, we have garnered an order of several tools from another global HBM player.
I think that speaks volumes that the industry is really recognizing our TCB solution as probably the best-in-class for HBM. I think these are some of the assumptions that we had in mind when we came up with the TAM number.
Got it. Thank you, Robin. Maybe switching gears to Hybrid Bonder. For this second-generation tool, I assume that should be able to achieve below 100-nanometer accuracy. Are you still on track to ship? I think earlier you said by mid-2025 to HBM customers.
Let me confirm your question, right? You're trying to ascertain whether our Hybrid Bonder second-generation tool will achieve below 100 nano accuracy?
Yeah. Yes, certainly. I think we all know we are not the first movers here. So I think we believe there are certain pain points that the industry is facing in terms of a new tool like Hybrid Bonding. So we're learning from it. And I think the good thing is that we're taking all these lessons on board. Our R&D engineers are coming out with a Gen 2, which we believe are highly competitive. Definitely, accuracy below 100 nanometer will be one of the criteria for the Gen 2 specs. So we are confident. We have won a couple of orders already for Gen 2. We are due to ship to our customers sometime in the middle of this year for Gen 2. And we are confident that we will continue to win more orders in the coming quarters.
Would you say for Hybrid Bonder, you may be making better progress for HBM in the near term versus in foundry?
Not really, Sunny, because the way we see HBM, TCB will still be the tool of choice for some years to come. As long as the height limit is not breached, I think TCB will be the tool of choice to package HBM application because of whole suite of reasons. Cost is one reason. Proven technology is another reason. So we believe HBM TCB will be a tool of choice for many years to come. For Hybrid Bonding, we believe it's more for logic, for more of the logic space. Currently, it's being employed, we believe, at the chiplet integration level. That's the top layer of the AI architecture. So I think that's where Hybrid Bonding will be most likely deployed in the years to come.
Got it. Thank you. So my last question is on traditional packaging. And so recently, your key competitor seems to be suggesting there could be a possible recovery in the second half of 2025. I wonder if that also aligns with your expectation. Are you seeing any green shoots for recovery for this year?
Yes. The visibility is indeed very limited at this point in time. When we do channel checking with customers, I think their utilization rates are starting to creep up. Of course, we cannot generalize, but in general, it's starting to creep up. That's a good sign. So has it reached a level whereby they will start to order equipment? Maybe not. That's why I say in the near term, we emphasize that the visibility for traditional or mainstream packaging, including SMT, is kind of limited at this point in time. However, having said that, we also have to take reference from industry experts.
And they seem to say that second-half recovery is on the cards in 2025. So we certainly hope so. So as we continue to await the recovery, we get ourselves prepared. So when the recovery comes, we can capitalize on it.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Lep ing, you may ask your question.
Hello? Can you hear me?
Yep. Yes, yes. Yeah.
Okay. Thank you for taking my question. The first question is about your SMT margin. So do you think Q4 last year was the bottom of the cycle? Or what should we model the SMT margin looking forward? Yeah. Thank you. This is the first question.
Yeah. Le Ping, so SMT gross margin is at a very low level. I can say. And like we mentioned in opening remarks, volume is a main reason. Also the fact that, as Robin mentioned, like automotive and industrial end market, right, where usually that's a relatively better margin could be gained, is not in our favor, right? So with that kind of product mix, it's quite definitely under pressure. And also the other thing is that in this kind of slower market, unfortunately, our products are under pricing pressure as well, as you can imagine, right? All the competitors are trying to gain market share in this very tough market. So that's another headwind that we have.
So how we should model the SMT margin looking forward?
It really depends. I guess you use your best judgment for your model, but it really depends. Joking aside, right, you kind of see if I were you kind of watch the mix, right, the end market recovery, for example, right? That's really a key for SMT's margin rate.
Okay. The second question is about China. So where is the growth of China come from in 2024? Is it come from SMT or Semi? And do you expect some HBM or CoWoS order from the Chinese customer in 2025 and beyond? Thank you.
Yeah. I think on the China side of probably, as I said, the utilization, just like I mentioned about utilization, the utilization are creeping up. Sporadically, some Chinese customers have some subsidy program because they're into so they have subsidy program. They will start to invest. But these are sporadic investments. We see consumer-related applications getting a little bit more traction. So I think that's also a good sign.
Now, however, having said that, we keep on coming back to our guidance is that, having said all this, the near-term visibility for traditional and mainstream for both Semi and SMT are really limited at this point in time.
Robin, there's a second part of the question that Le Ping is asking regarding CoWoS orders.
Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. I think we serve a global market, right? So we don't limit ourselves to certain market segments. So definitely, especially for TCB, we will ship to customers where they are where they order from. So it's a global customer base for us for TCB.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Simon, you're up next. You may ask your question.
Okay. Yeah. Great. Yeah. Can you hear me well? Yep. Yeah.
So yeah, number one question is, yes, we do see the gross margin getting squeezed, but any chance to improve your net profit OP number, particularly the OP margin these days only what, 1%-2% range? So would you recap some of your OpEx R&D expenses after the gross margin? Why the OP margin appears so low these days? Thank you. That's the first question.
Yeah. Simon, thank you for the question. Maybe let me address the question also from the OpEx because we talked about margin quite a bit, gross margin already. So for OpEx, as you can see from our actual number, right, the last few years, OpEx has been pretty steady. A year ago this time, we actually announced that due to the potentiality of Advanced Packaging, we have decided or we have basically set aside investment for HKD 250 million last year in 2024.
The actual came out to be HKD 180 million for 2024. We largely have invested as we planned in R&D, especially for advanced packaging programs and some infrastructure as well. That's the investment side, but with the investment, we managed to hold OpEx flat last year, fighting against certain merit increase, etc. In Q4, we actually have done a restructuring program across the two businesses, giving the slower recovery or the weak side of revenue, right? That restructuring program actually impacted hundreds of people. You can see probably in the financial reconciliation, right? There's a restructuring cost of about HKD 95 million. It will bring savings more than that in an annualized way. This is one of our efforts trying to be prudent in terms of cost measures.
At the same time, we are committed to invest for the future. So that's 2024. If you think about going forward in 2025, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, we'll continue to do that, continue to invest in AP R&D programs and also some infrastructure. That's what we mentioned, right, will be at about HKD 350 million of investment. That strategy is not going to change. I hope that's enough.
Yeah. Very clear. Yeah. Very clear. However, when we look at your income statement here, the R&D is very consistent, about $550 million a year ago, like Q4 2023. Then Q4 2024, also similar amount, HKD 500 million. I wonder why you have suddenly $100 million from other gains versus other expenses. It's a little bit confused.
But again, we don't see any meaningful change in your R&D expenses Q4 2024 versus 2023 Q4, same amount. And also the SG&A is a little bit up, but pretty much close to HKD 300 million. So I wonder why you are recognizing all your efforts for the AP, extra expenses in non.