Welcome to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Webcast Conference Call. Today's call will be simultaneously streamed through the internet and telephone. Please be advised that if you join the meeting by phone, your dial-ins are in listen-only mode. However, after the conclusion of the management's presentation, we will have a question and answer session. At this time, you will receive instructions on how to participate.
Welcome to SMIC's Third Quarter 2022 Webcast Conference Call. Attending today's call are Dr. Gao Yonggang, Chairman, Dr. Zhao Haijun, Co-Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Wu Junfeng, Senior Vice President. Let me remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements that do not guarantee future performance, but represent the company's expectations and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the forward-looking statements in our earnings announcement.
Please note that today's earnings statement is presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS, and all currency figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated. I will now hand the call to Dr. Wu Junfeng to introduce the company's financial data. First, I will report our unaudited financial results for the third quarter, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year. Profit from operations was $478 million, down 11.4% sequentially and up 54.1% year-over-year. EBITDA was $1,192 million, down 2.3% sequentially and up 33.3% year-over-year.
Profit attributable to the company and non-controlling interests were $471 million and $104 million respectively. Moving to the balance sheet, at the end of the third quarter, the company had total assets of $41.8 billion, of which total cash on hand was $18.4 billion. Total liabilities were $13.9 billion, of which total debt was $8 billion. Total equity was $27.9 billion. Total debt to equity was 28.6% and net debt to equity was -37.4%.
关于现金流量，在三季度经营活动所得现金净额为收入$10.69亿美元，投资活动所用现金净额为支出$30.24亿美元，融资活动所得现金净额为收入$10.63亿美元。
In terms of cash flow, in the third quarter, we generated $1,069 million cash from operating activities. Net cash used in investing activity was $3,024 million. Net cash from financing activities was $1,063 million.
以上是公司三季度的财务情况。关于四季度和全年，我们的指引和展望如下。四季度销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率预计在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度指引中值，公司全年收入预计在73亿美金左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。
Above is the company's financial results for the third quarter. For the fourth quarter and the full year, our guidance and outlooks are as follows. In the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to be down 13%-15% sequentially, and gross margin is expected to be in the range of 30%-32%. According to the results of the previous three quarters and a midpoint of guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full year revenue is expected to be around $7.3 billion, up around 34% year-over-year, and the gross margin is expected to be around 38%.
资本开支方面，我们今年的资本开支计划从$50亿上调至$66亿，全年折旧预计约$23亿。以上是财务方面的情况。谢谢。
Our capital expenditure plan for this year is raised from $5 billion- $6.6 billion. Depreciation and amortization for the full year is expected to be approximately $2.3 billion. This concludes the financial status. Thank you.
谢谢吴博士。接下来有请联合首席执行官赵海军博士介绍市场运营和工艺平台的情况。
Thank you, Dr. Wu. Next, I will hand the call to Dr. Zhao Haijun to comment on market, operations, and technology platforms.
大家好，感谢参加三季度的业绩说明会。
Hello everyone, and thank you for attending the third quarter earnings webcast.
2022年下半年，从宏观环境来看，消费需求疲弱，国际局部冲突带来的全球能源危机、高通胀、货币波动等导致全球经济复苏乏力。叠加美国颁布的新的出口管制新规，给全球产业链和区域产业链带来了不同程度的业态变化和挑战。产业分工体系和布局正在发生深刻的调整。原有的全球产业链循环受到干扰，甚至被阻断。区域化进程在艰难中取得推进。从产业周期来看，智能手机和消费电子去库存速度缓慢，客户留片意愿不强。工业控制领域虽然相对稳健，但增幅有限。汽车类终端消费韧性强，行业尚有需求缺口。在这样的环境下，公司坚持客户产品产能动态调整的策略。虽然业绩不可避免地受到了影响，但是公司全体员工的努力实现了三季度的目标。
In the second half of 2022, from the perspective of macro environment, the soft consumer demand, global energy crisis caused by international local conflicts, high inflation, currency fluctuation, etc., have led to weak global economic recovery. Overlapping with the new export control rules issued by the United States, these multiple factors have brought varying degrees of changes and challenges to the global and regional industry chain. The system and distribution for the division of industry are undergoing profound adjustments. The original circulation of global ecosystems has been interfered or even disrupted, and the process of regionalization is advancing with difficulties. From the perspective of the industry cycle, the stocking pace of smartphones and consumer electronics is low. Customers' willingness to tape out is not strong. The industrial controllers area is relatively stable but with limited growth.
The automotive area is resilient in terms of end consumption and demand still outstrips capacity in the industry. In such an environment, the company adhere to the tactics of dynamic adjustment of customers, products and capacity. Although the performance was inevitably affected, the company achieved its target for the third quarter with the efforts of all employees.
单季度销售收入19.07亿美元，出货量略有下降，但平均销售单价因产品组合优化小幅上升，因此收入和上季度持平。销售收入按照区域分，中国内地及中国香港占比七成，北美地区和欧亚地区占比合计三成。晶圆收入按照应用分，智能手机、智能家居、消费电子和其他类别占比分别为26%、15%、23%和36%。虽然整体手机行业仍然在去库存，但得益于公司保持与终端客户的直接沟通，我们从去年开始提前调整产能分配，降低了相对饱和的细分领域的产能安排，所以智能手机收入贡献在三季度环比略有增长。消费电子整体需求疲软，收入环比下降4%。智能家居收入虽然整体环比下降9%，但其中的局域网应用需求依然强劲，收入环比增长了22%。其他类别环比增长了2%，其中工业电网自动化环比增长三成。IoT在可穿戴设备的推动下，收入环比增长两成。晶圆收入按尺寸来分，八英寸和十二英寸收入占比分别为32%和68%。总体来说，三季度的收入规模和结构与二季度基本一致。
The third quarter's revenue was $1,907 million, with a slight decrease in shipments and a small increase in blended ASP due to product mix optimization. Therefore, the revenue remained flat compared to the previous quarter. By geography, revenue from Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, China accounted for 70%. North America, Europe and Asia in total accounted for 30%. Wafer revenue by application, smartphone, smart home, consumer electronics and others accounted for 26%, 15%, 23% and 36% respectively. Although the overall mobile phone area was still de-stocking, thanks to the company's direct communication with end customers, we started to adjust capacity allocation in advance since last year, reducing the capacity plan in relatively saturated segments. Thus, smartphone's revenue contribution increased slightly in the third quarter sequentially.
The overall demand for consumer electronics was weak, with 4% sequential decrease in revenue in the third quarter. Although overall revenue of smart home decreased by 9% sequentially, the demand for local area network application remained strong, with 22% increase in revenue sequentially. Revenue from others increased by 2% sequentially, among which power grid and automation increased by around 30% sequentially. Revenue from IoT increased by around 20% sequentially, driven by the available wearable devices. By size, wafer revenue for 8 in and 12 in accounted for 32% and 68% respectively. Overall, the scale and structure of revenue in the third quarter was largely consistent with the second quarter.
在三季度，由于部分产品的外部需求下行，公司内部的一部分工厂也进行了维修。同时当季折合八英寸的总产量也增长了3.2万片，所以产能利用率最后达成92.1%，较上季度下降了5个百分点。综合上面各个因素，三季度的毛利率为38.9%，环比下降了0.5个百分点。
In the third quarter, externally, demand decline of some products and internally some fabs conducted annual maintenance while the monthly capacity increased by 32,000 8 in equivalent wafers this quarter. Thus, the capacity utilization was 92.1%, down 5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Combining the above factors, gross margin for the third quarter was 38.9%, down 0.5 percentage points sequentially.
四季度我们的指引如下，受手机消费领域需求疲弱，叠加部分客户需要缓冲时间解读美国出口管制新规而带来的影响，公司销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度的指引中值，公司全年的收入预计在$73亿左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。
Our fourth quarter guidance is as follows. Due to the weak demand in mobile phone and consumer overlapping with the impact from that some customers need time to incorporate the newly released U.S. export control rules. Revenue is expected to decline by 13%-15% sequentially, with gross margin in a range of 30%-32%. According to the results of the previous three quarters and the midpoint of guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full year revenue is expected to be around $7.3 billion, up around 34% year-over-year, and gross margin is expected to be around 38%.
从资本支出来看，前三季度累计完成$44亿的资本支出，增加了折合八英寸8.5万片月产能。公司秉承一贯的谨慎规划原则，依据市场长期需求进行中长期的资本开支规划。建设进度有可能根据市场情况、采购周期的长短等原因做适当的调整。在三季度，公司宣布了中芯西青新项目，公司未来五到七年有中芯深圳、中芯京城、中芯东方、中芯西青总共约34万片12英寸新产线的建设项目。出于这些项目长远安排的原因，公司要支付长交期设备提前下单的预付款。因此，今年全年资本支出计划从$50亿上调为$66亿。
In terms of capital expenditure, we have $4.4 billion expenditure in the first three quarters, an increased 85,000 8 in equivalent monthly capacity. The company has always adhered to the consistent principle of prudent planning and conducts medium- and long-term capital expenditure planning according to the long-term market demand. The schedule may be adjusted appropriately according to the market conditions, procurement cycle time and other reasons. Together with the new project of SMIC Xiqing announced in the third quarter, SMIC has 12 in new production line projects in Shenzhen, Beijing, Lingang and Xiqing for the next five to seven years, with total around 340,000 12 in monthly capacity. Considering the long-term arrangements for these projects, the company needs to prepare for those equipment with long lead time in advance. Therefore, the capital expenditure plan this year is revised upwards from $5 billion-$6.6 billion.
上一次业绩说明会的时候，我们预计这一轮周期调整至少要持续到明年上半年。结合当前宏观经济的走势和去库存的节奏，我们还未看到行业有复苏的迹象，其影响从终端市场传导到代工行业的时间有滞后，代工行业周期尚未触底。面对目前复杂的环境和影响因素，结合客户产品结构特点，对内，我们对公司的技术平台、产品组合、产能、设备、人员配置进行梳理、检视和优化，提高生产效率。同时我们做好新旧产品在研发、配套服务、产能上的转化准备，打通生产瓶颈，加速迭代产品的流片和产出。对外，我们细化市场策略，做好市场调研与研判，深化客户服务，寻找差异化机会，留住老客户，在中芯做产品迭代，吸引新客户来中芯流片，预留出一定的转换时间，蓄势待发，静候行业周期的回暖。
During the earnings call of previous quarter, we expected this cycle adjustment will last at least through the first half of next year. Based on the current macroeconomic trends and the pace of destocking, we have yet to see signs of recovery in the industry. There is a time lag in the transmission of its impact from the end market to the foundry industry, and the foundry industry cycle has not yet bottomed out. Facing the current complex environment and influencing factors. Based on the characteristics of our customers and product structure. Internally, we streamline, review and optimize our technology platforms, product portfolio, capacity and equipment mix and staffing allocation to improve the efficiency of our production. Meanwhile, we prepare for the iteration of new and existing products in terms of research and development, supporting service and capacity.
Debottleneck production and accelerate the tape out and output of iteration products. Externally, we refine our marketing tactics, research and evaluation, deepen customer service, look for opportunities for differentiation so as to retain existing customers to iterate products and attract new customers to tape out in SMIC, reserving certain iteration time, gaining momentum, and waiting for the industry cycle to rebound. In addition to the industry cycle factor, the United States has recently updated and revised its export control route for a new round of restriction on China IC industry. According to a preliminary interpretation, the new rules have an adverse impact on our production and operation. We have maintained close communications with suppliers and customers, while the clarification of some definitions in the new rules and the assessment of impact on the company are still in progress.
Since its establishment 22 years ago, SMIC has experienced the ups and downs of many cycles as well as many difficulties. The adjustment may last longer as this cycle is overlaid with multiple complex external factors. The development of the company is inseparable from seizing the momentum when industry is booming, and even more inseparable from persistence and patience when industry is going through a difficult time. In the face of a severe situation, we are still full of confidence in the company's medium to long-term development. Finally, we would like to thank all employees, customers, suppliers, investors, and community for their trust and support. Thank you all. Thank you, Zhao Haijun. Next is our Q&A session. Questions will be answered by Zhao Haijun and Dr. Wu. Chinese questions will be answered in Chinese. English questions will be answered in English. Please limit your questions to two per person.
I would now like to open up the call for Q&A. Operator, please assist.
Thank you. To ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Your first question comes from the line of Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question.
Okay. Yes, thank you, and, you know, appreciate the work you're doing managing through everything. The first question on the capital spending, two parts. First, if you could talk about the motivation to accelerate the prepayments, given the slowdown in the industry, and if this is tied to areas like long lead time, tools like lithography. Then the second part is just with the pull-ins, what is the initial view on 2023 CapEx and, your planned expansion for 8 in and 12 in, with that spending?
Hi, Randy. Thank you for raising the first question. To answer your question, the first one, for the long delivery cycles of the equipment, we put the down payments there. That's the reason this year we raised the CapEx from $5 billion- $6.6 billion. This kind of machine, not just for the long delivery tools you mentioned, the lithography, but also include some tools on the supplier side is relatively small. So they have the overwhelming orders. They take a very long time to ship the machine. So we have to put a down payment there on to secure the supply of these type of machines. If you notice, just now I mentioned a number.
For the next five to seven years altogether, we have five new projects and to reach about 340,000 wafers per month, 12 in capacity. That's a very big scale, but the time also takes five to seven years to complete. We have to make sure that different five sites for different technologies to serve different customers. They have different timelines, and to get in on the schedule. To secure that part, we have to raise this CapEx for the down payments. Second thing you mentioned that for next year, what's roughly about this CapEx for 8 in.? You know, we have the regular type of increments of 8 in capacity, mainly to satisfy the industry growth.
Last year, 2021, we have raised about 40,000 wafers per month for 8 in. T his year, we have the similar type of incremental capacity. Next year, I believe we have the similar type. For 8 in is a mature industry, but they also have the growth there. They have the continuing and the growth from our customers and the Chinese market.
Okay. Actually for the CapEx, do you have the 12 in expansion for this year and next year, and your first view on CapEx for 2023?
Okay. For this year, Randy, and we mentioned that more or less we have 40,000 wafers type of 8 in, and the remaining is the $5 billion. You deduct the 8 in, 40,000 wafers, that's the 12 in. At the beginning of this year, we announced that the 12 in capacity increment is same or higher than last year. We haven't reached the final yet. The fourth quarter will have a lot of machine come in.
Okay. Any plan or rough view next year, similar amount or higher, lower?
Next year, you know, we announced the different projects sequentially. Next year the major fab will be our Beijing new wafer fab, the new sites, and the Shenzhen new wafer fab. A 12 in.
Okay.
8 in, roughly the same size of this year for incremental capacity.
Okay. Or just to clarify, is 12 in roughly the same size? Because the prepayment took up this year level, is the right baseline $5 billion or it's more next year maybe similar, like $6.5 billion or $6.6 billion?
We haven't got the finalized schedule for the shipment yet. Basically, we hope that, you know, the wafer fab you set up that manufacturing facility, you will run it for 20 to more than 20 years. That year is the downturn or the upturn, it's not that important for the specific fab. The important thing is, as you might see around the fab to be built up in different years. Next year, we will just have this type of average growth for the next five to seven years. Next year, if everything on schedule, I believe more or less we have the similar growth of this year.
Okay. No, that's helpful. Just a second question wanted to ask about your sales outlook. Fourth quarter, if you could go through the different applications because it looked like smartphone maybe. Just if you could go through the application and then what type of utilization drop you're seeing into first quarter at this stage. If you see the rate of decline similar pace or any moderation or stabilization?
Randy, very difficult to give you the exact apologize for the interruption. Just now we come to the point that we could not give the exact numbers of the finalized utilization. We already include that factor into our revenue guidance and the gross margin. The drop of gross margin mainly from the loss of the utilization and the phasing of new depreciations. Just now during our statement for the quarter, we give one information that we are working very closely with our customers to clarify the impact of the new guidelines from U.S. government. That part is also likely impacts and because some customers are hesitate at this moment. We need to settle down exact and the wafer loadings, these type of things. Lower than the third quarter, 92%, definitely.
Okay. Like, have you quantified or about how much the impact on the part where you're working with customers, like just that part? Because there's the demand impact, but is there kind of a part that's the impact of that?
We could not get an exact number at this moment, but we just found that that impact the international markets, not just to the whether or not technology things, the international market like the computing things, that market got a very, very big impact at this moment. Customers are very hesitant on the further inventory for that market. We do not know exactly what's the impact to that market. My personal guessing is maybe 30% of the overall market for this kind of motherboard and graphics type of things.
They cannot export it to China market, so they have this kind of backsplash to the overseas market. The way when this kind of industry they cut down the demands and some customers even though they are not in the mature technologies, they also need to take caution that they do not overbuild the inventory. This kind of thing impacts, affects quite many customers, even though their major products are selling overseas, not necessary to the Chinese market.
Okay, great, thanks a lot Dr. Zhao. Good luck.
Okay, thanks Randy.
Thank you for your questions。现在我们第一道问题来自CITIC Securities的王紫源，王紫源，请您发问。
海君总裁各位领导好，我是中信证券的半导体分析师王紫源。那我有两个问题，第一个是还是关于这个资本开支和扩产这一块，想追问一下，就是咱们在之前上周之前的$50亿资本开支里面，这个是否包括了天津厂的这个投入，然后这次是否是有这个新增天津的部分。另外就是说咱们能否展望一下明年的一个扩产节奏，可能在哪个季度会集中体现这些设备的一个交付，包括落到这个wafer out和我们的收入上，可能会体现在什么时间？谢谢。
紫源，你好，谢谢你提这个question。这样，第一个呢，就是我们的CapEx里面这一次的增加，和原来的五十亿美元的CapEx，基本上是没有包括天津新厂的这个建设，买地或者是这个未来。前面只有一部分启动的经费是有的，其他的并没有算在这个增长里面。在增长里面，刚才有讲说我们有深圳的十二寸，北京京城的十二寸，有临港，上海临港，然后未来也有西青，但是现在这个长交期的设备主要是为了前面的这个三个项目做的预付款。天津的这个商业计划和设备采购我们还在规划之中，所以这个里面还不包括天津的部分。那你第二个问题是问说，既然长远有这样一个发展，大概来年产能这个扩展的速度，在哪里会体现？我们现在看到就是，这个国际上供应链上的成交期紧张并没有放松，我们现在开出去的PO或者是预付款，其实交付期是很长的，那原来定的呢，也是不规则地进入工厂里面来，所以形成产能，它并不是一下子能够形成，有些多余的设备已经到了很久，但是bottleneck的机台还没有到，这个是为什么触发中芯国际管理层要付预付款去长驱订货，因为这样我们就才能把产能到位的时间按照我们的规划来进行，而不是有早有晚，不可控制。所以来年呢，我们总的感觉就是，不会形成爆发性的扎堆一下子到，还是差不多每个季度差不太多，很均匀的一个到法。那刚才Randy在你前面有问，说我们今年大概到了多少，来年到了多少。那我回答他也是说，如果要是交货的周期是按照原计划进行的话，来年跟今年会是差不多的。
明白，谢谢海宁总。然后这我想追问一下，就是说咱们现在这些设备的交期，这个达到了多长时间啊，然后以及我能否理解，这个上修其实是通盘考虑了后面您提到这三十四万片的一个扩产的计划。
好，紫源。这样，先回答你第二个问题，就是我们在整个的规划里面还是保守谨慎的，我们只是把必需的部分，比方说你要建立十万片的产能，可能你预交款先订个三万片这样，我们不会一下子去 overdo，去做得太多，但是要保证我们的计划有一定的保险系数。那这样呢，就是刚才你问说到底对未来的计划有多少，我们只增加了$15亿的 down payment，跟我们要进行的这么大的一个未来的规划比起来，其实这个还是很少的部分。但是刚才我也讲说，它最大的保险在于说我可以保证前面的第一波到，比方说我保证第一个三万片，那这个是一定能做到的。第二个三万片在第一个三万片的后面，它交期长一点就没问题了。怕的是你第一个三万片就是半拉，那第二个也是半拉，那这样就影响永远持续下去了。所以我们就是保险系数，主要是在这样一个做法上面。那第二个刚才你问的问题是，就是你刚才问的这问题里面。
第二个是我们现在这个设备的交期大概到了多长时间了。
是这样。那个交期时间长的公司它有两种情况，一种是它是必须的，比方说光刻机这种，虽然说它的工期特别的大，但是呢，因为它的备料这些周期很长，现在如果是满载运行，原有的备料都是人家已经订出去的，你再订一台呢，人家得重新给你备料，这个周期就是非常长的，差不多有一年半到两年的样子。那第二个呢，就是有一些公司并不是需要它很多，但是它公司很小。那稍稍的有增加了几个订单，你就被推得非常长。比方说有的公司可能一年它的总产量只有三十台，那如果要是突然有一家增加了十台，你就得多等半年，对不对？所以像这样的也是长交期。我们现在基本上刚才说的长交期是指交货的时间可能会超过一年半左右这样，就是在十六七个月到两年多这样的，一定要先把它安排好。
明白。谢谢海君总。然后第二个小问题就是想请教一下咱们在人才这块的一个储备的情况，能否请您分享一下？谢谢。最后一个问题。
好的，是。那我想大家一定是有这个考量的，就是说我们增加，一方面是规模，这么多不同的工厂，我们需要大量的工程人员和管理人员来把它管好。第二个呢，是说我们现在增加产量，其实市场本身的增量只是一部分，更多的是中芯国际要做原来没做的东西。那如果是这样，就是每个产品类别这个完整性，我们都是需要前期跟客户一起做大量的研发工作的，所以我们需要这两类人员都需要。那可以跟你讲，就是今年这个人才储备和发展啊非常的好，一个呢是今年可能是因为疫情各方面的原因，这个离职率是大大的降低，已经进入了一个历史最好水平。那第二个呢，就是今年毕业的这个学生里面，不管是大学、研究生，大家对半导体行业啊都很重视，所以我们也有大量的优秀人才来报名参加中芯国际。那我们今年发现生源非常的好，人员素质很好，我们也招了大量的人进了。中芯国际的人数去年大概是在一万五到一万六，今年已经超过了两万。
明白，谢谢海金总，很清楚了。谢谢您。
好的，谢谢紫源。
感谢。下一道问题来自CICC的李雪莱，请发问。
感谢管理层。我是来自中金公司的分析师李雪莱，我这里也有两个问题。第一个问题是关于整个行业的景气度，咱们前面也提到了，就是因为这次的外围因素影响因素会比较多，那这次这个down cycle的时间可能会比较长。我这里还是想请教一下管理层，就是咱们这次的下行周期，现在预判的话，什么时候可能会触底，那触底之后，下一轮周期上行的时候，会是下游的哪些领域能够带动整个行业景气度上行？谢谢，这是第一个问题。
好，谢谢你啊，雪莱。好，现在讲刚才你问的这个，我们也不是算命先生，但是我可以把我的想法和感觉分享给你。现在讲的行业周期，其实我们看到的这一轮更是整个经济的周期，并不是半导体行业供过于求促成的。因为我们这个行业，比方说光刻胶、硅片这些材料或者是设备，这过去一年多的时间里面交付的并不快。你仔细看中芯国际，我也是一直强调今年增长的产量，增量的部分跟去年差不多，去年跟前年差不多，所以大家并没有增，增长那么多出来。现在我们看到的这个就是在上个季度，我讲的是速冻急停，就是说在整体的经济各个细分的应用场景里面，它的需求量一下就下降了。那在我们中芯国际的这个沟通会之前，可能您这边中金公司啊和各位已经参加了很多别的啊这个我们的客户啊，或者整机厂商的这个他们的发布会，那他们发布的情况，你会得到一个非常精准的数字，就是在中国市场上手机的销售啊，家用电器的销售啊，面板的销售啊，工业的销售啊，你会看到它的数值和库存的，那你会立刻得到一个结论，就说并不是这个行业生产的多了，而是需求比原来的这个速度慢了，慢了很多。原来我们说这个速度，有的细分市场，比方说手机，它可能是单季掉了30%这么多，那一下子就凸显出来说原来的库存变高了，那什么时候会回来呢？就是这个整个的经济变好的时候，它就会回来。现在的客户他不敢备得太多，因为现在备得太多，自己的资金有限，然后也担心用了非常高的价钱来备库存，如果不需要还要降价去把它做清销，这样事情是没办法做的。还有一个就是担心说现在备的库存都是以前的产品，万一有新产品出来迭代，自己的产品就卖不出去了。因为我们现在集成电路行业大宗产品呢，比方说手机、家用电器、智能终端等等，这些它的迭代速度是非常快的，如果你有十八个月的库存，那对不起，你的很多产品可能十八个月之后已经没人要了。那大家有这样的一个担心，只有把这个消耗量增加，大家才敢备新产品和未来的库存。所以我们中国有句古话，可能是翻译印度的话，就是解铃还得系铃人哈，就是我们这个行业现在看到下行，它的原因来自哪里，就得解掉哪里。所以我们现在就是期待着整个经济啊能够回来。那我也跟你分享一下，这个我观察到过去几轮的事情，就是比方说用手机来看，有好几次大家都觉得说这个行业它不单是每年有季节呢，第一季度很差，第二季度很好等等，它也是隔几年就发现做不下去了，就得改行了。但是等到可能几个季度之后就突然好得不得了。所以我们也在应对一个大宗消费，整个这个新功能的出现和整个社会的走势。所以我们刚才也讲说，我们建一个工厂是要运行至少二十年的，我们不因为今年是个半导体的小年，我们就不做了，也不因为说是一个大年，我们就一起做三个。我们还是按照中芯国际自己的步骤，按照我们现在的客户发展、技术发展的这个节奏来进行产能的扩充。那以前我也讲过一句话，就是说中芯国际在整个代工行业，现在的这个，市场份额大概只有6%，那我们增加一点和减少一点都不会影响整个行业的供求关系。整个代工行业只占半导体行业的大概20%多一点，所以代工行业再增加一点，也不会造成整个半导体行业啊迅速地供过于求，或者是供不应求。所以还是整个社会经济对半导体整个行业它的需求是大还是小，整个行业的需求减少了30%，其实跟我们建得快一点、慢一点没有太大的关系。好的，徐来，我回答的就是这样。
明白，很清楚，谢谢赵博士。就是因为现在确实像您所说，就是下游的像手机、PC以及消费电子确实很疲弱。那当然同时，可能大家也能看到，像这个新能源汽车，或者新能源领域的需求还是比较旺的，所以就是市场也在考虑这个问题，就是如果下一轮周期起来的话，是不是一定要依赖就是手机和PC的这个占比较大头的这方面有所复苏，同时还有一些新的应用，有一些这个快速的增长，我不知道您是不是认同这个观点。
这样，Xuelai，如果是我们把中芯国际当成一家小公司，那你这个想法就对了，就是我们专门去做那个某一个增量市场就可以了。这个汽车行业，在汽车行业所用的芯片和分离器件，在代工行业的整个的订单里面，它还是比较小的，应该说不到10%，好的公司有接近10%，差一点的只有5%。所以靠这个的增量来把整个我们的这个扩产规模和生产规模做起来，我觉得我们不大做得到。那除非是有的公司特别就专精这一项，这是可以的。那比方说有的公司它有多达十几万种产品来服务这行业，也许是可以的。我觉得下一轮回来的时候应该还是最大众的需求起来，因为它一旦是把产能利用起来，剩下来的事情都好做了。手机行业原来整个的IC的需求量占代工行业的一半，现在不到一半，也差不多是这样一个数字。如果这个最大的一块它减少了三分之一，没有别的行业，刚才你提到的汽车行业，或者其他的可以补上这一块，一定会显现出来这个产能利用率不足，一定是这样。那现在这除了手机，大家都知道的民用的家用电器、可穿戴这些，还有没有新的地方？新的地方是有的，我们看到的储能IC、逆变器这些和储能的，这也是一个新增的量，不管它有多大的百分比，至少是从原来没有到有，这也是一个净增量，而且质量的要求极高，是需要花很多功夫跟终端的用户合作起来，去满足这个市场的要求。
好的，谢谢赵博士。我这里面还有第二个问题，是关于公司的这个盈利能力方面的，因为我看到对于四季度的指引方面的这个毛利率可能下滑得还是比较多，我想这里面是不是有几个因素，就是跟产能利用率、需求相关，另外价格变动是不是也是一个重要的因素，就是价格方面我们现在有没有一些波动？谢谢。
中芯国际现在预告的或者给的指引，第四季度主要来自于两个原因，一个是产能利用率本身它有下降，在前面我们有讨论，一定会比92%更低，具体的数字我们现在还没有敲定。第二个呢，就是我们新增产能的折旧，它进来了，所以你这个新增的这部分产能，有的利用起来，有的没有利用起来，所以它的毛利率就下降了。这是两个最重要的因素。那个价钱肯定是市场是有走向的，但不一样。首先出现动摇的这个细分市场，其实细分市场它不是每个很关联，你也不能说把这个市场订单少的设备全都拿去做另外一种产品，它的需求也不大一样。那我们看到这个存储器市场，这不是中芯国际做很大的，但我们也有。这个存储器市场，它这个变化很快，就供过于求，或者库存很高。然后面板驱动的市场从特别大的电视到特别小的折叠屏，它的这个变化也是特别快，就是库存特别的高，大家下单的意愿减得特别的快。那我看到这两个是最先饱和的市场，然后现在价钱也是变化得特别大。其他的市场现在还没有明显的变化。那刚才我们在——
好的。
这个季的这个说明里面也讲，我们还看到有些地方是增长，比方说局域网啊，这个金融卡呀等等，这些地方智能卡呀还是在增长的，有很多地方还是在增长的。
好的，非常清楚啊，也非常感谢赵博士。那我这问题就这些啊，谢谢大家。
谢谢你，谢了。
谢谢。下一道问题来自China Renaissance的TY Chiu，请您发问。
Hello。
请发问。
诶，是我吗？
是的。
是，是你，TY Chiu。
海君，早上好。两个问题，顺其自然的。第一个就是在产能方面，就是我们未来几年有蛮大的一个产能开出来嘛，34万片的产能，这个海外跟国内的客户是如何分配的在这个新产能这个方面，还有就是从application的层面是怎么去分配的？
好了，TY Chiu，谢谢你这个问题。刚才你讲的实际上是这两个事情，一个事情是我们扩的一些产能是做什么，第二个是给国内国外或者不同的分配是怎么划分的。
Mm-hmm.
中芯国际现在这个划分呢，你听到了我们的报告，大概我们有70%是跟中国客户、中国市场相关的，大概有30%是overseas的，是这样子。那我们接下来呢，第一个就是可能大致的比例差不多，这是第一个回答。第二个我们也是看中芯国际的增量市场在什么地方，那这个增量市场就没有划分的问题，就是我们为了实现我们的增长，那我们就会跟客户商量好，这个市场我们觉得我们可以做得到，那我们就在这个市场去满足这个市场的产能，我们就建到这么多，那这个就不会严格地按照区域来划分。这是回答你这个问题哈。那个一直是七十三十这样，可能就会限制中芯国际未来规模的成长，所以我们不是完全考虑这个。你也知道中芯国际的名字叫中芯国际哈，那个我们也是名副其实在发展我们的这个产业。
Right.
好，第二个就是说，大家既然在不同的地方建工厂，他是做同样的东西吗？还是做不同样的东西？回答是这样，就是我现在的想法是说至少三分之一是做同样的，公用的，这样呢可以满足客户的动态的增加降低，一个厂做不过来，去另外一个厂做。但是任何一个厂都得有是三分之二左右，应该是有专门针对的某一个细分市场和技术的迭代这些，因为它什么都要做。我以前在这个说明会上也说过，它的设备就要这个灵活性就要很强，就要每个工厂都要做好几个节点，那这样呢，就是买设备的时候比较复杂。那原来只有一个工厂这样做应该没有错，所有的都在一个北京厂里面做嘛。但现在中芯国际已经建了五个新的厂，那在五个新的厂就不要每个厂都做这么复杂的东西，所以我希望是有三分之二左右是做别的，比方说有的厂是面对着中国面板产业这样的，它需要的IC和应用的，里面包括有的可能就是专门做analog power，有的可能是专门做specialty memory，有的专门做CMOS image sensor等等，它各有侧重，这样买机台的时候，就不会买的那么多余。比方刚才我说的specialty memory和CMOS image sensor，它用的金属层就很少，你要是做MCU或者是做逻辑电路，那它用的金属层就特别多，所以它的设备——
Mm-hmm.
是 lopsided，两边是不对称的，这样呢就有的
Right.
有针对性，这样就会好一点，大概是这样。那我们在宣布，比方说天津新项目的时候，也是说它将来的重点是做analog power，是做
Mm-hmm.
模拟电路和功率IC的，对吧？
Right。
上一次可能在会上我也讲说，我们的深圳工厂，它好多技术和产品客户，是针对着中国面板行业的需求的。
对. Right, right.
Mm-hmm.
了解，了解。诶，下一个问题的话就是现在我们海外客户在我们公司里面的这个新产品的tape out状况是怎么样？
现在这个很好，因为国内在去年和今年的时候突然发现，在这个产能供不应求的时候，很多行业一下就被停下来了，所以他们都有这样一个愿望，就是说不管这个产品是中国公司设计的还是国外公司设计的，它应该有相当一个比例是在中国的这个代工厂里面生产的，因为他们跟中芯国际这边有一定的战略联合，这样呢我们可以在产能分配方面，对它有一个长期的承诺。那这样的一个趋势呢，就使得很多外国的公司，他原来可能是在自己家里的IDM生产的，或者在国外生产的。
Mm-hmm.
他也要拿一定的量来国内来。那中芯国际现在在这方面展开的速度还是很快的。然后，美国的新规可能主要的影响是原来美国的客户，美国的设计公司在中国的生产，那我们的理解是我们现在扩的这些产能和现在做的技术节点都是完全符合这些规定的，是没有影响的。但是在前面的报告我们也讲，正在跟客户去厘清，使得客户呢，能够把这事情搞清楚，长期的合作，都敲定下了。
明白，明白。但是美国的客户的话，在未来在我们家的产品的这个以什么类型的产品为主啊？
类型就是，这几种都有，就是刚才说的手机里面的。
Mm-hmm.
工业应用的，汽车里面的，这个都是有。刚才我讲了analog power、TDDI、WiFi、局域网这些都有。
Oh.
MCU 这些都有。
了解，了解。好，感谢你，海君，海君总。
好，谢谢你，TY Chiu。
感谢大家的问题。 Thank you all for your questions. 现在有请顾光丽女士致结束语。 I'd now like to hand the call back to Ms. Guo Guangli for closing remarks.
谢谢今天参加电话会议的各界人士，感谢大家的信任和支持。
Thank you for participating in today's conference call. Thank you for your trust and support.
中芯国际第三季度业绩说明会到此结束，感谢您的参与. This concludes SMIC's Third Quarter Webcast Conference Call. We thank you for joining us today.