Welcome to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation second quarter 2022 webcast conference call. Today's call will be simultaneously streamed through the internet and telephone. Please be advised that if you join the meeting by phone, your dial-ins are in listen-only mode. However, after the conclusion of the management's presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. At the time, you'll receive instructions on how to participate. Without further ado, I would like to introduce Ms. Guo Guangli, Senior Vice President, Board Secretary, and Joint Company Secretary of the company to speak.
Greetings. Welcome to SMIC's second quarter 2022 webcast conference call. Today's call is hosted by Dr. Gao Yonggang, Chairman, and Dr. Zhao Haijun, Co-Chief Executive Officer.
Let me remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements that do not guarantee future performances, but represent the company's expectations and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the forward-looking statements in our earnings announcement. Please note that today's earnings statement is presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS), and all currency figures are in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Next, I will introduce the company's financial status. First, I will report our unaudited financial results for the second quarter and the first half of 2022, followed by our guidance for the third quarter.
The second quarter's financial results are as follows. Revenue was $1,903 million, up 3.3% sequentially and 41.6% year- over- year.
Gross margin was 39.4%, down 1.3 percentage points sequentially and up 9.3 percentage points year- over- year. Profit from operations was $539 million, up 0.6% sequentially and 0.3% year- over- year. EBITDA was $1,220 million, a record high, up 7.4% sequentially and 3.7% year-over-year. Profit attributable to the company and non-controlling interest were $514 million and $115 million, respectively. Moving to the balance sheet. At the end of the second quarter, the company had total assets of $40.5 billion, of which total cash on hand was $18.6 billion. Total liabilities was $13.1 billion, of which total debt was $7.3 billion.
Total equity was $27.3 billion. Total debt to equity was 26.5% and net debt to equity was -41.6%.
关于现金流量，在二季度经营活动所得现金净额为收入$21.22亿美元。投资活动所用现金净额为支出$6.81亿美元。融资活动所得现金净额为收入$12.28亿美元。
In terms of cash flow. In the second quarter, we generated $2,122 million cash from operating activities. Net cash used in investing activities was $681 million. Net cash from financing activities was $1,228 million.
以上是公司二季度的财务情况。至此，2022年上半年未经审核的主要财务数据如下：公司销售收入为$37.45亿，同比增长53%，毛利率为40.1%，同比增长13.3个百分点。经营利润为$10.75亿，同比增长62.4%。归属于本公司的应占利润为$9.62亿，同比增长13.6%。
Above is the company's financial results for the second quarter. Accordingly, the unaudited financial results for the first half of 2022 are as follows. Revenue was $3,745 million, up 53% year-over-year. Gross margin was 40.1%, up 13.3 percentage points year-over-year. Profit from operations was $1,075 million, up 62.4% year-over-year. Profit attributable to the company was $962 million, up 13.6% year-over-year.
关于三季度我们的指引如下，销售收入预计环比持平到增长2%，毛利率预计在38%到40%之间。今年全年的业绩指引维持不变。
For the third quarter 2022, our guidance is as follows. Revenue is expected to be flat to up 2% sequentially, and gross margin is expected to be in the range of 38%-40%. The full- year guidance for 2022 remains unchanged.
以上是公司财务方面的情况。接下来有请赵海军博士介绍市场运营和各工艺平台的情况。
This concludes the financial status. Next, I will hand the call to Dr. Zhao Haijun to comment on market operations and technology platforms.
大家好，感谢大家参加二季度业绩说明会。
Hello everyone, thank you for attending the second quarter earnings call.
二零二二年的上半年，集成电路产业链进入了被双重周期叠加影响的阶段。第一重是全球经济总量增速放缓的宏观周期。在疫情冲击、高膨胀、国际局部冲突等多重因素的影响下，全球经济增长面临较大压力，消费动力不足。第二重是半导体市场进入本身下行的行业周期。在过去几个季度的加速消费之后，以及制造环节产能扩充达到一定程度之后，行业进入了整体供需逐渐平衡，部分环节进入去库存的阶段。目前双重周期的交互给市场带来了一些恐慌的情绪和不确定性，部分产业链环节甚至出现了速冻急停的极端反应。
In the first half of 2022, the IC industry supply chain entered a phase affected by two overlapping cycles. The first is the macro cycle, which is experiencing global economic growth slowdown. The global economic growth is under relatively big pressure, and consumption momentum is weak due to the effect of multiple factors, including the pandemic impact, high inflation and regional conflicts overseas. The second is the semiconductor industry down cycle, which has entered a phase where the overall supply and demand have gradually balanced and some segments have entered a phase of destocking after accelerated consumption over the past few quarters and expansion of manufacturing capacity. The interaction of the current dual cycles has brought some panic and uncertainty to the market, and some parts of the industry supply chain have even seen extreme quick freeze reactions.
在当天叠加的周期中，不同应用领域出现了结构性分化的趋势。智能手机仍然在消化库存，消费电子需求疲软，而汽车、电子、绿色能源、工业控制等领域需求依然保持稳健增长。中芯国际从去年开始提前布局，加强与客户，尤其是与终端整机公司的沟通，充分了解市场实际需求的情况，提前战略性调整产能，削减大屏LCD driver、指纹识别、低端CIS等市场逐步饱和的产能，避免无序竞争，增加模拟和数模混合类特色工艺产品，如电源管理、高端MCU、OLED driver、Wi-Fi 6等差异化平台的产能，动态契合快速变化的市场，满足终端不同应用的场景需求。
In the current overlapping cycle, there is a structural divergence trend in different areas of application. Smartphones are still digesting inventory. Consumer electronics demand is weakening while demand in automotive electronics, green energy, industrial controllers, and other areas still maintain solid growth. As you might see, has been planning ahead since last year to strengthen communication with customers, especially with end-user companies, to thoroughly understand the actual market demand, strategically adjust capacity in advance. Cut capacity in saturated markets such as large screen LCD drivers, fingerprint and low-end CIS to avoid disorderly competition. We increase the production capacity of differentiated platforms such as analog and mixed signal, including power management, high-end MCU, OLED driver, Wi-Fi 6, etc, to dynamically meet the rapidly changing market and fulfill the needs of different application scenarios of end users.
今年二季度，公司销售收入突破$19亿，环比增长3.3%，出货量以及平均销售单价均有小幅增长，产能利用率为97.1%，毛利率为39.4%。在五月份的业绩说明会上，我们当时预估疫情对于二季度产出整体影响在5个百分点左右。实际上，由于疫情对于人员流动的管控，部分工厂休并没有在二季度进行，使疫情对于产出的整体影响低于预期，因而当季收入和毛利率都略超指引。二季度的销售收入按区域分，中国内地及香港、北美地区和欧亚地区占比分别为69%、19%和12%，与上季度相比没有大的变化。晶圆收入按应用分，智能手机、智能家庭、消费电子和其他类占比分别为25%、16%、24%和35%。其中智能家居在无线网络路由器等局部网连接需求的带动下，环比增长24%。消费电子在高端模拟MCU平台需求增量带动下，环比增长8%。其他应用中的工业类环比增长达到18%。应用分类中只有智能手机因市场去库存收入环比下降7%。晶圆收入按尺寸来分，八英寸和十二英寸占比分别为32%和68%。整体来看，二季度的收入结构符合公司对市场需求的判断及产能分配的部署。
In the second quarter of this year, the company's revenue exceeded $1.9 billion, up 3.3% sequentially, with a small increase in both shipment and ASP. Capacity utilization was 97.1% and gross margin was 39.4%. In the May webcast, we estimated at the time that the overall impact of the epidemic on output in the second quarter would be around five percentage points. In reality, due to the limitations on people's movement as a result of the epidemic, some of the fabs did not conduct annual maintenance in the second quarter, causing the overall impact of the epidemic on output to be lower than expected. Thus, revenue and gross margin in this quarter slightly exceeded guidance.
By region, revenue from Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong, China, North America, Europe and Asia in the second quarter accounted for 69%, 19%, and 12% respectively, with no major changes from the previous quarter. Wafer revenue by application smartphone, smart home, consumer electronics and others accounted for 25%, 16%, 24% and 35% respectively, with smart home growing 24% sequentially, driven by demand for wireless networks, routers and other local area network connectivity. Consumer electronics grew 8% sequentially, driven by incremental demand in high-end analog and MCU platforms. The industrial sub-segment in others grew 18% sequentially. By application, only smartphones saw revenue decline of 7% sequentially due to market destocking. By size, wafer revenue for 8-inch and 12-inch accounted for 32% and 68% respectively.
Overall, the revenue structure in the second quarter was in line with the company's expectations of market demand and deployment of capacity allocation.
三季度公司整体产能利用率保持在健康水平，平均销售单价稳定，预计销售收入环比持平到增长2%，毛利率在38%到40%之间。
In the third quarter, the company's overall capacity utilization is expected to remain at a healthy level, and ASP is expected to be firm. Revenue is expected to be flat to up 2% sequentially, with gross margins in the range of 38%-40%.
接下来，公司将会持续谨慎关注和分析市场走向，并依据公司特点做出快速应对，适时有效地调整公司策略、业务重点和产品组合。
The company will continue to carefully monitor and analyze the market trends and make quick responses based on the company's characteristics to adjust the company's tactics, business focus, and product portfolio in a timely and effective manner.
第一，充分利用公司产线的灵活性、技术平台和多元化的特点。我们的产能在一个工厂里面，能够在不同的节点之间切换，在每一个节点里面做多种产品平台。我们虽然市场份额相对较小，但客户量和平台种类在行业里差不多是最多的。因为这些弹性，我们对于市场变化的应对速度是比较快的。
First, we take full advantage of the flexibility of our manufacturing lines and diversity of our technology platforms. Our production capacity is able to switch between different nodes in one fab, running multiple product platforms at each node. Although our market share is relatively small, our customer count and platform variety are almost the largest in our industry. Because of these flexibilities, we are relatively quick to react to market changes.
第二，优化高附加值的技术与产品，优先解决瓶颈环节，提高光罩厂的产能，与公司设计服务IP开发相互配合，通过组合拳加速新产品的开发和导入速度，夯实产品组合，做有竞争力的别人不擅长做的产品。
Second, through the implementation of a multi-pronged approach by optimizing high-value-added technologies and products, prioritizing the resolution of bottlenecks, increasing the capacity of the mask shop, cooperating with the company's design service IP development, we accelerate the development and introduction of new products, solidify the product portfolio, and make competitive products that others cannot do well.
第三，依据坚实的客户群基础以及业务领域的多元化特点，对客户体系进行优化。一方面加强与头部客户和增量市场中最有希望成为头部的客户合作，提升客户粘度。另一方面继续为全球客户服务。在行业周期的波动中，不同地区的需求因为种种原因，下探的时点未必同步，下探的幅度也不尽相同。中芯国际依托自身以及客户的全球化布局，根据不同地区不同客户的需求进行灵活调配，以应对逆风周期带来的不确定性。
Third, optimize customer structure on a solid customer base and their diversified business areas. On one hand, we strengthen cooperation with top customers and those who have the most potential to become top customers in the incremental market to enhance customer stickiness. On the other hand, we continue to serve global customers. During industry cycle fluctuations, demand in different regions may not be synchronized on the timing of a job for various reasons, and the magnitude of the dip may not be the same. SMIC relies on its own global presence and that of its customers to flexibly deploy capacity according to the demand of different regions and different customers, and to deal with uncertainties caused by headwinds.
我们认为下半年细分领域结构性紧缺的情况仍将继续，我们要加快调整步伐，各个厂区互相调配长短角，把更多产能投放到相应短缺的平台上去，供过于求的产品少做一点，需求好的、有技术创新的、价钱好的产品多做一点。
We believe that the structural shortage in some segments will continue in the second half of the year. We will speed up the pace of adjustments, balancing strengths and bottlenecks of each fab to allocate more capacity into corresponding platforms that are in short supply, making less of the products in oversupply and more of the products with good demand, technological innovation and good pricing.
Following, I will speak briefly about capital expenditure and capacity expansion. In the first half of the year, the company spent a total of $2.5 billion on capital expenditures and increased its eight-inch equivalent capacity by 53,000 wafers per month, which is in line with the expectation. The new projects are progressing as planned. The company will continue to adhere to the principle of prudent planning and will invest and expand capacity based on market and customer demand.
Since its establishment 22 years ago, SMIC has experienced the ups and downs of many cycles. At different stages of cycles, the company has had deep experience on how to respond in the short- term and how to plan in the long- term. At present, it seems that this cycle adjustment will last at least until the first half of next year, and when it will end depends on the macroeconomic trend, the pace of consumer demand side recovery, as well as industry destocking. However, what is certain is that the IC industry's demand growth and global localization trend, as well as the long- term logic of indigenous wafer manufacturing remain unchanged. Although there are short- term adjustments, we remain confident in the company's medium to long- term growth.
Finally, we would like to thank all employees, customers, suppliers, investors and the community for their trust and support.
Thank you all.
Thank you, Dr. Zhao. Next is our Q&A session. Questions will be answered by Dr. Gao, Dr. Zhao and Ms. Guo. Chinese questions will be answered in Chinese. English questions will be answered in English. Please limit your questions to two per person. I would now like to open up the call for Q&A. Operator, please assist.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Our first question comes from the line of Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question.
The changing environment. The first question on the cycle adjustments, could you discuss the impact on your utilization in the coming quarters from these adjustments? If you could elaborate a bit more on your view, the adjustments continue at least through first half. Just taking it into applications, what's your view on the areas correcting early, smartphone consumer, whether you get stabilization? Then the view on the more resilient applications, if you see risks that adjustments start spreading to those areas.
Hi, Randy. How are you? Thank you for raising the first question. About these adjustments of the markets, the first thing is how deep the adjustments. The second is when we possibly see the recovery or the stabilization. Currently we see the biggest area for the inventory correction is on the mobile phone area, mainly the smartphones. The sales from the data recently I got, the total sales about 17% drop. This kind of 17% drop in the first half year mainly happens in April and May timeframe. That makes that kind of a month, about 30% drop in sales, especially for the Chinese smartphone makers. Then, more or less, their demands dropped by half.
Because they already have a very big chunk of inventory, they do not need any additional chips from the market. That triggered a panic in the supply chain. We see a lot of orders just get stopped, mainly for the supply of the smartphones. On the consumer side, we mainly see the very big panel because the supply chains get a lot of capacity to supply the LCD driver ICs for the larger panel, like TV set, these kind of products. That area got a lot of price erosion. That's the area we see. The other areas, the segments like industry, like automotive, like high end of analog power, high- end of connectivity, the demands are still very strong. More or less, we can still say they are in a very healthy or short supply type of a situation.
Overall, we also see that, for the industry leaders, they maintain very strong demands. For overseas markets, just last time we mentioned, and they also got a recovery from last year, so their demands are increasing. More or less, that's the situation. Our belief is that this kind of adjustment currently possibly get into the worst case. When we near the end of this year, every company, decision-makers, mobile phone makers, telephone makers, automotive makers, they will plan for the next year. At that moment, if the plan for next year is good, they will start to get better inventory. They start to put in orders. We believe the first turning point is the end of this year.
When we get through the Chinese New Year timeframe next year in February, we will see the overall economy, whether or not they get stronger. That's the recovery of the total demand.
Great. That's helpful. Just one quick follow-up on the first one, and then I'll ask the second. Just for your business, as we get to kind of the worst, if you could give a rough feel for the utilization or shipment, how it may hold up into like fourth and first quarter. The second question I have on the pricing environment and your long-term agreements, just given some channels panicking. Just a view on the pricing environment, how it's holding, how any LTAs are holding up. In your view, you've kept margins quite solid, but your view on margins as you go through the worst of the adjustments. Okay. Thank you.
Yeah, Randy. At this moment, the third quarter, we already gave the forecast. Our capacity, the utilization is more or less the same as the last quarter. It's more or less to the very high level, very healthy. We cannot see very clearly for the fourth quarter. By industry consensus, I read very carefully from our customers and other companies' reports, and they are expecting about 10% type of contraction in the utilization.
Great. Then on the pricing and the margins.
On the pricing, just now I mentioned like the LCD drivers for the large panel and for the smartphones. Smartphones need a lot of ICs like a CMOS imager and like a fingerprint, these kind of products. Their price will go low if they like to maintain their market share because the demands already dropped. Just now I mentioned this year, the first half, the total sales of a mobile phone lowered by 17%. That's the published data. Definitely the inventory getting higher. In order to sell ICs to the mobile phone makers, currently, the only way to do that is to lower the price. I mean, the product makers. If that's the case, they will drop their price. Definitely, they come back for foundry service. They need to drop the price also.
Let me mainly come to that kind of, we call that commodity products. For the other products, I really believe their pricing will be very firm. For the LTA contract makings, the price will be there, no change.
The factor is, excuse me. You may have some change in the weaker segment. Factoring in utilization drop in some areas and pricing, should we expect gross margin like toward low to mid-30s or do you think it can hold with your shift into some of the better areas and still tight areas?
On the utilization impact is not that bad for the gross margins, roughly one to one type of things. At this moment, sorry, I really cannot give too much information on the fourth quarter. We are working very hard to communicate with our customers and we are studying the overall market situation. I guess it's still too early for us to talk too much on the fourth quarter.
Okay, great. I appreciate that. Thank you.
Thanks, Randy.
下一道问题来自 China Renaissance 的 Szeh o Ng. Our next question comes from the line of Szeh o Ng from China Renaissance. Please ask your question.
管理层早上好，其实我有两个问题想请教的。第一个就是，刚才都提到就是这个产业，就是它处于这个下行周期嘛。我想请问一下我们公司的话是如何对应这期的下行周期，特别是现在我们公司的规模啊、客户啊，还有这个产品，最终要使这个全球的大环境都是跟对下行周期是不一样的。想看看这是管理层有什么看法呢？
好，Szeho ，你好，谢谢你提这个问题。我觉得是从外部和内部两个地方来看，现在这个下行周期，它有两个原因，一个原因呢是整个经济它衰退了，整个的消耗量少了。第二个原因呢，是我们行业内部供过于求了。这两件事，我们来看哪件事影响最大。影响最大，现在我看到的主要是外部周期，是整个经济现在不确定，是有些地方经济现在是下行的，所以它的消耗量是下降的，但整个行业的供过于求并不明显，很多节点和领域里面的产能并没有增加。所以也是因为我们整个的供应链，它成长得很慢，比方说设备供应商，他交货不快，所以产能建不起来，或者建起了产能，发现wafer source，硅片或者photoresist那产业没有增加太多，所以整个行业单月的出货量并没有增加太多。这样呢，就是行业的供过于求并不特别的严重。那严重在什么地方？现在一个是整体的经济，前几个季度大家拼命地买，现在呢，不像原来买的那么多了，那这个就消耗，就一下子中间商的库存就变高了。那另外一个原因呢，是现在你知道就是有的，有的不同的这个行业里面它是不均匀的，这是从外部来看。比方说现在就是消费类的和手机受到了特别严重的冲击，但是在工业的产业链上还是供不应求的。在新能源汽车上面其实也还是供不应求的，网通方面高端的也还是供不应求的等等，这个是从外部的环境看。中芯国际公司的内部这一次和以前的区别呢也不一样，这一次中芯国际现在呢是准备的比原来好，就中芯国际的客户平台，产能，各方面准备的比以前好。但是我们也遇到一些特殊的情况，就是我们周边的这个疫情有一定的不稳定性，你知道的，这影响会大一点，我们在不同的城市有这样起起伏伏的，这是一个。第二个呢，就是你也看到我们中芯国际在整个营业额的来源里面，它的大宗的来源70%以上是来自于中国市场，那这样呢，就是我们跟中国市场发生的事情，它这个互动就会比较多，影响就会比较大。那个别人呢，如果其他同业的一个同行，他的这个是营业额的百分比，没有那么多来自于中国市场，可能他跟我们公司现在遇到的一些具体问题，压力就不大一样。那这样呢，我们也是一起跟中国市场、中国客户这边把它走出来。刚才我在前面也是讲，说中芯国际像我们的名称一样，我们是个国际公司，我们也有大量的国际客户和国际的订单，那我们也是在这个时间点要把这两个给它平衡，就是减少单一市场带来的影响。那我们中芯国际现在还有另外一个特点呢，刚才前面的Randy有问，问我utilization的问题，就是中芯国际它有特别新的工厂，也有呢在那边非常久的工厂，非常久的工厂，它的节点，它的产品平台、客户都特别的多，产品都已经在那里，可能这个月生产的少一点，下个月就可以增量。但是对于刚刚建设的工厂，比方说我们的深圳工厂，它的这个原来产能都是很满，但是它的客户验证过的产品是比较少的。如果某一个产品这个月突然市场有急停速动，它不需要了，那我们就要切换到另外一个产品，我们就要重新做mask，就要重新去做验证。那它现在如果没有验证那么多，它就对这些突然来临的应对就会慢一点。所以中芯国际现在的utilization和影响是看我们的新工厂里面是怎么样，旧工厂里面是怎么样。那我这边可以坦率地讲，就是我们那些已经很悠久的工厂，在这方面的应对是绰绰有余的。我们刚刚建立的新产能就要跟客户和光照制造验证一起来快速地转换产品。市场上现在库存已经很高的产品，就要把它迅速地停掉，然后赶紧去验证未来需要的产品，那这个对新工厂压力就会大一些，旧工厂就会好一些。我们中芯国际就是争取把这些给它平衡好。那要讲经验嘛，就是这样，就是我们在前几年已经尽可能地在同一个厂里面，把不同的节点的产能做到有灵活性，可以切换，然后把不同的产品平台都做起来，就是中外的客户也都做起来，这样等到有不同市场变化的时候，我们就可以是两边兼顾着去做调整。
了解，了解。第二个问题想跟您请教的就是在这个CapEx intensity的看法了。首先为什么想去问呢？首先现在我们过去几年就是跟这个GlobalFoundries这个revenue都是比较接近嘛，但是GlobalFoundries它这个CapEx投放相对来讲比我们小，我就想请教下我们对未来几年这个CapEx投放这个看法会怎么样？
好，最后就是刚才在前面的那个综述里面，我有向大家汇报过，就是中芯国际我们现在有个共识，就我们坚信国内在地代工这种逻辑是长期不变的，中长期这个行业，整个全世界的半导体行业，特别是中国国内的这个代工生产行业，这个发展前景是巨大的，我们非常地看好。我们现在也建立了非常大的客户群，大家都有未来发展的规划，他们很多人都已经是上市公司，也有资源做研发和拓展。那根据这样的一种互动，我们认为中芯国际的发展现在相对还是谨慎的，还是能够做成的，所以我们不会改变我们长期产能扩充、发展建设这样的规划，我们的投资的密度应该会保持恒定。
明白，明白。就是最后插一个小小问题，就是在这个下行周期里面，公司会不会对这个margin有一个最低的要求呢？
我们是跟着市场和整个行业，和我们客户的发展需求来一起走。比方说最后我们建立一个工厂，我们的工厂建设以后，基本上预计它会运行二十年以上，所以这样呢，在二十年里面一定会遇到毛利率很好的年景，我们叫旺季或者大年吧，也会遇到不好的淡季，或者叫小年，一定是这样的。所以我们在投资向下走的时候，在很好的年景投资和相对比较差的年景投资，其实对于二十年整个的发展，影响并不是那么大。那我们也是本着谨慎的一个原则，就是说如果市场有淡季，我们会把这个交流做好，跟客户，跟我们投资者，我们都把这方面的交流做得很充分，大家都会统一到同一的这个认可的发展逻辑上面去。
好的，谢谢你，海军，谢谢郭光丽。
谢谢志浩。
谢谢。下一道问题来自华泰的乐平黄。Our next question comes from the line of Leping Huang from Huatai. Please go ahead.
赵总，我有两个问题。第一个，刚才您提了两个词，其实我印象很深，一个叫速冻急停，一个叫健康的产能利用率。您能不能帮我们稍微再展开讲一下，就是速冻急停的概念是，多快的下行叫速冻急停？因为我看从报出来的财报上来看，消费者即使手机也只下了7%。然后健康的产能利用率从您的角度来说，多少以上是比较健康的一个水平？谢谢。
乐平，你好，谢谢你提问题。那第一个是先讲一下速冻急停，我们面临的可能所有人都面临到，但每家里的比例不一样。好，我们看到的现在就是，在大屏的电视显控驱动方面的LCD driver、T-CON、PMIC、Wi-Fi，这都是电视里面有需要的，或者是智能手机，它里面需要的一些大众的产品，像指纹识别、CMOS image sensor、LCD driver这些。它是这样，就是手机的生产厂商，它自己原来预计今年的可能是目标是比较高的，那后来发现呢，它近几个月的销售量很少，需要得很少，那可能它手里的库存已经有很多，它主要消耗自己库存，它在市场上去拿产品，可能就只拿一半或者是三分之一。这是中间设计公司、产品公司，它看到的终端公司对它的需求一下突然少了一半以上，那中间公司呢，它自己的库存也很高，它可能就立刻要求，代工这边呢就不要再下线。所以这个传递呢，它有一个特别大的放大倍数。那这就是我说的速冻急停，它可能是昨天它的预借还是一个月，比方说一万片，它可能第二天就跟你讲说能不能现在都停下了，就因为它要搞一下市场的感觉嘛。那我也是讲说市场的感觉点，我们现在看到手机、电视，这些感觉点都一样。一个是今年的年底，因为各个公司要做来年的规划，要报出来，它如果来年要实现那个销售额，不论手机、电视、汽车多少，它一预计自己的生产量之后，它就会开始来计算自己需要备多少库存，那它的单子就立刻就确定了，这是一个。第二个节点就是在来年二月份左右，国外的新年也过完了，中国的新年也开始过，那个时候会看到整体经济是不是还在下探，还是那个时候已经稳定下来，或者说已经开始变好，那整体经济变好。刚才我说的这些行业，它都会根据整体经济来调整自己的全年的规划，那个时候也立刻把它的这个订单下放给这个终极的中间的这个产品公司，然后和我们的代工公司。所以就是在今年年底和来年，来年二月是一个观察期。现在呢，就是在消化速冻急停的期间，等到，那如果是二月份的时候，大家看得比较明显，开始恢复它的订单的话，那它的影响应该是二季度末左右的时间出片嘛，应该是这样。那刚才你讲说什么叫一个健康的水平，因为这个公司，每个公司略微有点不一样，就是，我们这个产能利用率的做法是你建设的产能已经可以做生产了，这个就叫产能。但是呢，你出片量除以你的总产能，这就是你的产能利用率。如果你是新厂，你的产能已经开始下片了，到出来可能要两三个月，所以你这两三个月里一定看到你的这个产能是分母大、分子小的，它就不是满载，这个它不是一个真正的产能的利用率的降低，这是生产厂爬坡的时候必然如此。永远下线的产能超过出片的产能，那整体如果把它平均的话，就是有建设新产能的这个影响，也有没有订单的这个产能的影响，那一定要高过90%的利用率才是一个健康的水平。
好，然后我问第二个问题，就是因为我记得去年的电话会上赵总提过几次，就是说到2025年，我们那个总产能要翻倍，然后我记得好像是那个十二寸的产能要翻两倍以上，然后很多是基于和系统厂商和那个就是设计，大的设计公司之间的LTA的合同在做的这些事情。那考虑到现在的宏观的变化，包括就是说既然他们的下单量下那么快，我不知道就明年的，就是如果在规划明年资本开支的时候，您是怎么样一个考量，就是说会不会根据宏观的影响，会调整一下那个资本开支或者扩张的速度，谢谢。
乐平，这个，来年的具体开支，我现在还不便公布。但是前面回答了一个问题，就是Randy问的，就是我们这个投资的CapEx intensity，我们觉得是一个持续的、稳定的，不会发生太大的变化，我们对中长期是看好的。第二个你是讲说，我们要在五年之内，那是按照去年做基数，2021年做基数，或者2020年做基数，说要翻一番，它基于我们自己的两个考量，一个考量呢，就是中芯国际在整个代工业，我们的份额是非常小的，我们只有5%，整个行业的供求关系并不因为中芯国际这么五年成长这么多发生什么变化，所以不会对整个行业造成冲击。第二个呢，就是我们现有的客户量，和我们自己新开发的这个平台和领域，我们预估自己达到这样一个目标还是不能充分满足整个发展的需要的。那这样的话，我们觉得这个五年期原来已经交流过的，或者中芯国际在各个厂区的项目都是公告过的，这些还会去坚持下去。那你具体地问到说来年会不会减少一点、增多一点，那现在我们回答这个有点早，但总体的一个思路是我们会很谨慎但是稳定地去做这件事，不会出现大升大停的这样操作。
好的，谢谢。谢谢赵总。
好，谢谢乐平。
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Jingxiang Zhou from Guosen Securities. Please go ahead.
公司的管理层您好。我是国信证券的周靖翔，我这边其实也有一个问题，就我看到这个从今年收入结构来看的话，智能家居应用这个占比提升就基本抵消了我们这个智能手机这一块。那我想请教下管理层，我们这边关于智能家居的产品主要涉及到下游哪些产品、哪些工业，那未来是否这个结构性的提升是一个比较长期的。那这是我第一个问题，谢谢。
靖翔你好。智能家居，这是我们公司内部也在研究说怎么精确地定义这个智能家居这个事情，到底跟家电有什么区别，跟消费品有什么区别。那我们现在的定义呢是这样，智能家居里面跟这个有线无线网通，跟智能操作有关的，这些我们都把它算在智能家居里。但传统的白色家电，遥控器这些我们就算在消费里面了。那在家里大家知道有互联网入户的，然后在家里互联网，咱们说的Wi-Fi、蓝牙，家里面这些无线通讯的、智能电视的，这些呢，我们都把它算在智能家居里面，家里的IOT也算智能家居。那这样算大家可能就比较多了。比方说家里面的监控器，对吧？家里面的，这个只要是有上网的，这些东西，在家里面用的，不算笔记本电脑的，都属于咱们家里面的机顶盒，咱们家里面的电视，或者无线音箱，这里面的电路呢，我们都把它算作智能家居方面。那中芯国际现在做这一块，跟这相关的，一个是蓝牙类的、Wi-Fi类的、Wi-Fi 6，装在这些简单的里面的PMIC、MCU、NAND Flash，这个都属于智能家居里面的。还有CMOS image sensor、CMOS image sensor后端的处理器，只要是它在家庭里面用的，我们都算智能家居。如果在工业行业里用的，我们就算工业类。
明白，非常清晰。那么第二个问题就是您刚才也提到这个集体诉讼的问题，我看到这个我们第二季度的合同负债，提升了五亿美元，也比去年接近是去年的三倍。那我们这里面是不是有一些新的订单，是比较长的一些契约，这些会不会面临这个集体诉讼的情况？
这个你问得很好。现在我们签LTA的这些预交款的这些公司，基本都是我们认为在未来发展有潜能的成为头部公司的公司，或者说是现在的行业的龙头。那我们现在看下来呢，这些地方都没有受到太大的冲击，大家都是按照原来的合同，按照原来的订单，按照原来的价钱来做。所以那个长期合作对于中芯国际未来的发展，这是一个很好的操作方式，可以把未来的相当一部分，无论是价钱呀，产能都已经锁定，这样我们在未来在发展这个产能的时候，它就没有那么大的风险。就是LTA签约这个部分，预交款的部分执行得非常好。
明白。那我们是不是可以理解，像我们合同负债这个提升这么快，其实也是对未来一段时间内的一个比较好的一个业绩指引，是否可以这么理解？
可以。
好的，明白。那，最后还有一个小问题，就我们的Q3，我们Q2里面提到我们部分工厂的岁修没有按计划完成，那我们Q3指引是否已经cover了可能的岁修计划？这是最后一个小问题。
对，对，对，已经把这个算进去了。
好，谢谢赵总，谢谢管先生。
谢谢建强。
Thanks all for your questions, I'd now like to hand the call back to Ms. Guo Guangli for closing remarks.
谢谢今天参加会议的各界人士，感谢大家的信任和支持。 Thank you for participating in today's conference call, thank you for your trust and support.
中芯国际第二季度业绩说明会到此结束。感谢您的参与。This concludes SMIC second quarter webcast conference call. We thank you for joining us today.