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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Mar 7, 2024

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Prada Group full year 2024 results presentation. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press star 1 and 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please be aware that we will take and answer one question at a time before moving to the next question, and please also note that it is a conference being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Andrea Bonini, CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Prada Group's full year 2023 results conference call. This is Andrea Bonini, Chief Financial Officer of Prada Group. I'm delighted to be with you again. I'm joined by Mr. Patrizio Bertelli, Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Mr. Andrea Guerra, Group CEO, and Mr. Lorenzo Bertelli, Marketing Director and Head of CSR. Mr. Patrizio Bertelli will start today with group highlights for the year, followed by Mr. Lorenzo Bertelli, who will provide an overview of our marketing and communication activities and an update on our ESG initiatives. Mr. Guerra will then give you a business update, and I will provide details on our financial performance before Mr. Guerra signs off with some closing remarks.

As a reminder, during today's call, we may discuss forward-looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties, and factors beyond our control that could cause the actual outcome and returns to differ materially from such statements. Please refer to the disclaimers included on slide two of our presentation. With that, I will hand over to Mr. Bertelli.

Patrizio Bertelli
Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Prada Group

Good afternoon. Welcome to the presentation of the yearly results of the Prada Group of 2023. 2023 was a year marked by important organizational evolution for our group, which allowed us to strengthen some competencies and brought further improvement in the execution of our strategy. Our main focus was that of further increasing the appeal of our brand through product and communication initiatives, which were designed to strengthen the relationship with our customers. Together with that, we kept improving retail in order to increase the productivity of our stores. Thanks to all those activities combined, 2023 also closed with a significant high-quality growth, driven by double-digit like-for-like growth for the third year in a row, which translated into an increase of retail productivity and profitability. Let's look at numbers. Net revenues stood at EUR 4.7 billion, up 17% at constant exchange rates.

Retail sales posted the same increase during this year, +17%, with an excellent performance in the fourth quarter as well, which was also +17%. All the areas (Japan, Asia, Pacific, and Europe) grew double-digit. The Americas closed the year at constant sales versus 2022. Prada is now closing another sustained growth retail year and gained further market shares through a well-balanced product portfolio and a major capability to innovate and interpret contemporary style. For Miu Miu, 2023 was a year of great success in consolidating the brand's image and appeal. The results are the outcome of a number of strategic choices made over the last years that span over product, communication, distribution, and human resources. The group profitability further improved, with EBIT margins standing at 22.5% of revenues. At the same time, we supported our brands through bigger communication and retail activities, and overall, we strengthened the group structure.

We also increased investments in our stores, also in the industrial and technological infrastructures. To wrap it up, I believe that innovation, dynamism, and flexibility are always very important in today's market situation, and I'm confident that our strengthened organization will be able to drive the group towards further growth and evolution. Let me now hand the floor to Lorenzo, who's going to talk about the main initiatives of 2023 in marketing and sustainability.

Lorenzo Bertelli
Marketing Director and Head of Corporate Social Responsibility, Prada Group

Thank you and good afternoon. Over the last year, the strength of our brand's creativity has enabled us to continue to capitalize and strengthen the visibility. Prada continues to drive interest with impactful fashion shows, campaigns, collaborations, and events that confirm the enduring success of the brand creative codes. Both menswear and womenswear shows very well received with brand visibility boosted by a strong global talent strategy. Throughout the year, Prada presented a number of distinctive global brand initiatives for its customers. This included the second edition of Pradasphere in Shanghai, which displayed over a century of the brand's history and culture. Prada Mode in Tokyo. And Prada Frames Symposium in Hong Kong. The Prada Café continued to grow in popularity with experiences in Shanghai, adding to the success of Harrods in London. Exclusive collaboration and groundbreaking partnerships continue to surprise and delight our audiences.

We announced to develop with Axiom Space, NASA's lunar spacesuit for Artemis III mission, and we announced the visibility of our Luna Rossa brand with the Adidas Football for Prada collection. Moving on to Miu Miu. The brand continues its outstanding performance with highly acclaimed fashion shows, new and consolidated partnerships, and engaging events that connect with the Miu Miu community on a global scale. At product level, growth was fueled by iconic and viral launches, including the successful introduction of the Arcadie and Ivy bags, the unveil of a well-received collaboration in footwear with Church's, and the second chapter with New Balance and ready-to-wear collection drops. We also established the Miu Miu Women's Tales Committee to support rising talent in the film industry. It includes film world leaders to drive the evolution of the project. Now we'll turn to ESG, which continues to be embedded through our strategy.

We have continued to build upon the foundation put in place in the past couple of years, and I'm proud to report we have reduced Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 58% compared to our 2019 baseline. We are fully on track to achieve our 2026 science-based target thanks to several initiatives, including significantly phasing down our natural gas consumption, procuring green electricity on a global scale, and further investment in both photovoltaic plants and electric vehicles for our company, Car Shoe. To reduce our Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions, we have set a target to transition some of our key raw materials, such as cotton, to lower-impact alternatives, and conducted our first life cycle assessment to measure the impact of some of our iconic products and materials, such as Re-Nylon. Most recently, we have invested in SAF certificates to contribute to decarbonization of the aviation industry.

We strongly believe that cross-industry collaboration is key to positively contributing to long-term climate change mitigation. Similarly, collective action is key to positive impact. This is why we're pleased to report today that over 75% of our leather and textile suppliers are involved in the ZDHC program to eliminate harmful chemicals from the fashion industry global supply chain. We can also report noteworthy statistics on our people initiatives, including the achievement of 44% women presence in our group leadership team. The group's talent is at the core of our strategy, and we'll continue to invest in craftsmanship. As part of the Prada Group Industrial Academy, 143 young people were trained last year, and almost 80% of the participants were hired in our production area. We also significantly increased funding to support SEA BEYOND, our flagship ocean educational program in partnership with IOC UNESCO.

In July 2023, the program was expanded to include scientific research and humanitarian projects. Thank you. I will now pass over to Mr. Guerra for the business update.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Welcome from my side as well. Happy to be here with all of you today, and thank you, Lorenzo, for your words. Let me start by saying, as we stated in our press release headline, that a strong Q4 ends a year of excellent progress and results. Prada Group is finishing another high-teens growth in retail sales, almost all like-for-like, and I would like to pause on this and repeat it: almost like-for-like, third year in a row. We finished 2023 on a solid base, and as we guided you with a slightly easier comp base in Q4 2022. We had, during 2023, a continuous and solid progress on our strategic journey, which has meant our retail excellence paramount project, our constant organization consolidation and evolution, and I think that this is giving us the opportunity to thrive in a world made of constant uncertainties and constant ups and downs.

Looking to our two main brands, on Prada, we had a solid and well-geographical and product-wise diversified growth, with some well-deserved peaks in Asia, Japan, and Europe. I would stress the visibility and cultural relevance of Prada remain the two main drivers in everything we do and everything we have seen through our shows, our exhibitions, our new stores, and our events. Consumers, landlords and all our stakeholders are clearly understanding this natural multifaceted Prada positioning, moving through the style of the day from more relaxed luxury to more absolute elegance. This journey started some years ago to focus mainly and almost only on full-price retail, with a slowdown in our wholesale perimeter and closing down our outlet stores. I would say that this solid, strong decision taken some years ago is totally paying off. Turning to Miu Miu, obviously a great success during 2023.

A lot of hard work, even in darker times, during the last years has led Miu Miu to today's success. Creativity, design, boldness, long-term view, even in tough times, without looking for shortcuts, has led Miu Miu to where it is today. The growth of the last 24, 36 months is even more than like-for-like because our net perimeter has less stores than 24 months ago today. We are committed to become even more relevant in this Miu Miu fashion unique positioning. Growth has been throughout the different geographies, throughout all product categories, and with a successful, strong, promising growth in the leather goods category. The journey ahead of Miu Miu is long, is wide, and we need to stay humble. We need to stay really, really focused to allow this journey to continue for a long term.

So happy of 2023 for Miu Miu, but really looking forward to a stronger future in 2024 and beyond. With this, I would now pass the word to Andrea, and he will walk us through our numbers.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you, Andrea. I would like to start with key financials on slide 14. The group reported net revenues of EUR 4.7 billion, up 17% versus fiscal year 2022 at constant effects. Exchange rates had a negative impact of 465 basis points on revenues, and the increase at current exchange rates is therefore plus 13%. Retail sales for the period totaled EUR 4.2 billion, up 17% versus fiscal year 2022 and up 46% versus fiscal year 2021 at constant effects. EBIT reached EUR 1.062 billion in fiscal year 2023 with a margin of 22.5%, showing further expansion versus the 20.1% of fiscal year 2022, coupled with substantial investments behind the brands. Cash flow from operations reached EUR 1.265 billion, and our net cash position stood at EUR 197 million, after EUR 759 million of CapEx cash out, including real estate.

Moving on to the next slide, retail continued to be the engine of growth throughout the year, up 17% versus fiscal year 2022 at constant effects, driven by like-for-like, full-price sales, and with a positive contribution from both average price and full-price volumes. The fourth quarter delivered a strong performance at +17%, accelerating versus Q3, +10%, with solid underlying trends and also reflecting easier comps in China. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of solid like-for-like growth. On wholesale, we were up +13% year-over-year. We kept our approach selective with independents, which resulted in flat performance, while we continue to see sustained growth in the duty-free channel. Royalties were up +36% year-over-year, with strong growth in both eyewear and beauty. Turning to the next slide, retail sales by brand, both Prada and Miu Miu achieved above-market growth.

Prada delivered a solid +12% growth over the year, driven by full-price like-for-like sales. Growth was supported by all categories and well-balanced across gender and age groups. Q4 accelerated at +10% versus Q3 at +5%, driven by all categories. Miu Miu reported an outstanding performance throughout the year, +58% year-on-year, with a further acceleration at +82% in Q4 and supported by higher exposure to China and Asia. Growth was strong and well-spread across all categories and regions. The brand now contributes to 15% of the group retail sales versus 12% in fiscal year 2022. Encouraging progress was seen at Church's with positive like-for-like performance for the full year, but there was still a negative impact from the perimeter.

In terms of product categories, at aggregate level, ready-to-wear was the fastest-growing category in the year at +31%, followed by footwear at +18% and leather goods at +8%. All categories accelerated in Q4 versus Q3 for both Prada and Miu Miu. Moving to the next slide, the group achieved double-digit growth across all geographies, excluding Americas, which ended the year flat. Asia-Pacific saw strong growth throughout the year at +24%, against a volatile basis of comparison in 2022. As expected, we saw an acceleration in Q4 at +32%, driven in particular by Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, showing solid underlying trends and also reflecting easier comps. Europe grew by +14% over the year, a solid performance supported by strong domestic and tourist consumption. Growth was sustained in H1, particularly in Q1, and remained solid thereafter, albeit normalized on very challenging comps.

Americas ended the year with a flat performance, following a sequential improvement in the fourth quarter at +4%, supported by some repatriation of spending. Japan was the best-performing region over the year, up 44%, with 38% in Q4, driven primarily by strong local demand and also increasing presence of tourists. Lastly, the Middle East delivered a solid performance at +10%, including Q4 at +8%, notwithstanding greater geopolitical headwinds in the period. Turning to the next slide, gross margin reached 80.4% in fiscal year 2023, with 160 basis points expansion versus fiscal year 2022, driven by average price, channel mix, and economies of scale. As expected, the level is substantially unchanged versus H1, and we don't expect meaningful movements going forward.

Top-line performance and phasing of expenses resulted in a particularly strong H1 in 2023, but we achieved further EBIT margin expansion, reaching 22.5% of net revenues at year-end. This profitability improvement was coupled with higher marketing spend, and in general, our organization infrastructure had been strengthened significantly over the past two years, as reflected in the OPEX increase. Going forward, our focus is to moderate growth in most fixed OPEX lines to maintain room for growth in marketing. Net income stood at EUR 671 million, an increase of 44% versus fiscal year 2022. CapEx for fiscal year 2023 was EUR 753 million, including the acquisition of a highly strategic real estate asset at 724 Fifth Avenue, New York. On the retail side, over the period, we completed around 130 renovation and relocation projects, which accounted for approximately 80% of the total retail CapEx.

Following 26 openings and 32 closures, we closed the year with 606 directly operated stores. Excluding retail, the remaining CapEx included EUR 48 million for industrial initiatives and EUR 75 million related to IT projects. Moving to the next slide, net working capital increased by EUR 44 million to reach EUR 735 million and further improved as a proportion of fiscal year 2023 net sales to 16%. Lastly, the group retains a solid balance sheet with a net cash position of EUR 197 million at the end of 2023. The board of directors has proposed an increase of dividend per share to EUR 0.13, which compares to EUR 0.11 last year, which would result in a total dividend of circa EUR 350 million and a payout ratio of 52%. With that, I will hand over to Andrea Guerra for 2024 priorities and closing remarks. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Thank you, Andrea. Now, on one side, as we all said, we're happy about our 2023, but I have to say that we're also happy for our beginning of the year in January, February. Let's talk a little bit about 2024. Some periods and quarters can be tricky in terms of comparison. Asia reopening in early 2023 led to some fast and furious shopping. Nowadays, we're finally observing some international Chinese tourism, while American tourism flies to Europe as they did in the past two years. Is this going to happen with all the geopolitical new turmoil? Even 2024 can be a year of some acceleration, some deceleration, some ups and downs. We have to go through 2024. I'm pretty sure that it will be a more linear path throughout the year, and our performance for sure will be above market growth rate.

We are all in a more normal market. We are all in a more normal world. So 2024 could be a kind of year where we will observe more clearly some market share shifts that will be more visible. Key drivers for our group during 2024, let me say, are pretty similar to what we have done in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, with something more. So on one side, obviously, we will continue to fuel investment, culture, intelligence, CapEx on our brands and their desirability. We will continue to foster, upgrade, promote from internal, our people, and really lead our people through 2024 with a strong motivation. Obviously, coming out from such a solid period could be a little easier job. We will continue to fuel the market with innovation and new products, something that our brands are pretty easy with.

On the other side, again, all our investment, all our activities, everything we have learned on retail excellence in this past four, eight, 12 quarters will allow us to trail a 2024 market and industry. We have space to gain and regain some longstanding market share back. 2024 will be another important year to evolve our organization across the world, always more and more brand-centric and digital-savvy. So we are looking to a 2024 that, for some means, could be a little bit more complicated than 2023, looking at it from an industry point of view. I think Prada Group's journey, Prada and Miu Miu brands, could have and hopefully will have a journey, as I said at the beginning, with over-average growth in all 2024. Thank you and ready to answer your questions, if any. Thank you, and I give the word back.

Operator

Thank you, sir. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Once again, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please be aware that we will take and answer one question at a time before moving to the next question. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The questions come from the line of Edouard Aubin from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, hi, guys. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. So just to start with one question, Andrea, you talked about the beginning of the year, which was quite satisfactory despite the more difficult context in January, February in China last year. Could you just provide a little bit more color on that? And also, you mentioned the Chinese traveling more. One of your friendly peers in Milan a few days ago talked about Chinese in Europe being at about 80% of what they were back in 2019. Are you seeing this level of Chinese spend offshore? So that would be my first question. And just sorry, related to that, on the trends, you didn't provide, but I guess we can triangulate the sales in the fourth quarter.

But would you say that the fourth quarter, the main positive surprise came from Asia and Chinese in particular, or was it more broad-based than that? Thank you. That's my first question.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Thank you, sir. So what I said is basically what I'm going to repeat now. The first two months of the year have basically moved in a direction similar to Q4. So this is what I can say more. Nothing more, nothing less, with the same, let me say, obvious difference in speed between the two brands. Having said so, I would agree on the fact, as I was stating before, seeing many more Chinese in Japan and Europe in the past couple of months. I would say that we are in that ballpark of the 70%-80% of what we have seen in the past. But most probably, it's a different kind of Chinese attitude. This is more individual travelers. That was more tour-operated and group travelers. So there are some differences. So this is how I see it.

I repeat, Q1 last year was a peak quarter for Japan, for Europe, and for some crazy shopping in Hong Kong and Macau.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Understood. My second question is on kind of how you see the year. Obviously, you guys don't provide guidance, which is completely understandable. But just slightly more qualitatively, you talked about, on the top line, you talk about above-industry growth. I mean, some consultant experts assume a mid-single-digit type of growth. Could you guys potentially still be double-digit? Is that kind of what you have in mind? Obviously, you don't have a crystal ball. But based on what you're seeing and expecting today, that's number one on the top line. Then in terms of the margin, Andrea Bonini mentioned that you expect the gross margin to be, given that it's already record high. In terms of the EBIT margin further expansion, could we have the same magnitude of increase in 2024 versus 2023 that you had between 2023 and 2022, around 200 basis points?

Or is that what you have in mind as of today? Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Yeah, sir. Let me answer this way. You stated that we don't give the guidance, but at the end, you are asking for a guidance. So I think what we said is more than enough. I mean, you can read our attitude. You can listen to, I mean, everything qualitative we have been trying to say. I think it's fair today. It's February. As I said, last year was another peculiar year of ups and downs because of openings and reopenings and slowdowns. Let us work. Let us go through the year. As I said, I mean, already to say that the first two months have been in line, in the trend of the Q4, I mean, it's a big one. I do not know if we're able to keep this velocity, but this is what is happening up to now.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you, Andrea.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Thank you.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Luca Solca from Bernstein. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Luca Solca
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you very much indeed for taking my questions. The first question would be on off-price and its contribution to retail. You said, Andrea, that you took a courageous decision in the past to close factory outlets. Are we correct in assuming that the off-price contribution to sales today is less than 10%? Or would that estimate be widely wrong when it comes to how important factory outlets remain in the business?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I think that the number you stated is more or less where we are today.

Luca Solca
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you very much indeed. When it comes to the growth by nationality, we definitely saw in the fourth quarter quite a significant rebound in American consumer demand growth, at least when we looked at some of your peers. I wonder, from a nationality-specific viewpoint, what you are seeing at the moment, is there anything important to note? There's a sense, for example, that Chinese demand is very polarized, with more of the high-end and less of a contribution from the middle class. Anything that we could potentially learn from your observatory on demand by nationality?

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Hi, Luca. It's Andrea Bonini. So what I would say on nationalities is starting with the Chinese cluster is we've seen very good numbers, very good growth on a two-year stack, which is more meaningful and stable, I would say, in Q3, Q4. Predominantly local, as you know. But traveler transactions are growing faster, and in particular with the acceleration that we talked about in Q4, but also beginning of the year. American cluster trended positive overall in fiscal year 2023. It was flattish, I would say, and stable in Q3, Q4. Again, no big shifts year to date. We're seeing, as one would expect, higher growth in local transactions versus traveler transactions because of the very different comp basis as well. And lastly, on European cluster, again, very solid throughout the year and solid in Q4 and year to date as well, with no significant changes.

Luca Solca
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you, Andrea. Maybe my last question on Miu Miu. The performance of this brand in the most recent past is exceptional. Anything that you've learned in terms of how you managed to energize consumer interest for this brand that could potentially be transferred to Prada so as to replicate, or at least in part replicate, this vigor in the Prada performance?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Let me argue on this. So I think that what Miu Miu is doing today is a longstanding journey that Miu Miu has done. So we had, and this happens to many different brands, we had a couple of years, maybe three years of slowdown. And now we are recapturing our journey, our women, and our trajectory. I think that there are no exceptional things happening. And this is also the moment where, if you don't stick your feet on the ground, where you are not humble, that is where you begin to make mistakes. Prada doesn't need vigor. I mean, the growth of Prada in the last three years is basically like-for-like, something around 75%. So this is a steady, strong growth. And this is what we are expecting from a larger brand as well. I think Miu Miu is really going back to where it has to be.

Luca Solca
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Understood. Thank you very much indeed.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Thomas Chauvet from Citi. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. The first one on gross margin, over 80%. I mean, that's remarkable. It's up by nearly 10 percentage points versus 2019 pre-COVID. So we haven't seen that kind of trajectory at any of your French or Italian peers. Perhaps there were a few low-hanging fruits, but clearly, the price mix and volume growth have helped. Do you see, Andrea, a cap to gross margin from here? And how do you ensure the gross margin is not going backwards? I'm not talking about 2024, but do you feel that that's the new bar now for the company, for the group? I'll let you answer that and follow up.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you, Thomas and Andrea Bonini. It's a level, as we said, that we are very happy about. It is best in class or close to best in class. We also said that going forward, we don't anticipate meaningful movements, meaning we wouldn't anticipate meaningful increases because from a mixed standpoint, channel mixed standpoint, as you know, we've done a lot. Also, from a prices standpoint, we are in a different environment from the one of the past three years. At the same time, we're working not to go backward. It's a very good level, and a level that, again, with the ambition to maintaining it, we can then work some basis points up or down also to continue to focus, as the company has always done, on quality. That's point number one.

I think point number two, in particular, at this year, we've also seen some specific factors contributing positively to the gross margin increase. I mean, the most notable, I think, on the cost lines, I mean, is certainly logistics that I've mentioned before.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you. My second question, a follow-up on Miu Miu and this extraordinary growth. You said it was mostly like-for-like, I guess. Volume and price mix. Any indication whether the EBIT margin is now not quite at the Prada level, but maybe close to 20%? And then how do you manage growth from here? I mean, do you have more ambitions to actually open stores to try to scale this? How do you protect that brand from perhaps overheating? We've seen Miu Miu historically quite volatile in the decade or two ago. I'm just curious to hear you on how you manage Miu Miu from here. Thanks.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

I'll start, and then I'll let Andrea Guerra to continue. So on the margin, Miu Miu has had an excellent like-for-like performance in the past three years. And that translated into significant uplift in productivity and brand profitability. From a sales density standpoint, we're getting in line with Prada. And that's also because of the stores that are smaller, typically, for Miu Miu. Margins are still below Prada, but that's just a matter of scale, relative size and operating leverage, but it's making a big step forward. And that on margins. And I'll let Andrea comment on the trajectory forward.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Yeah. I think that it's time looking especially to 2025 and 2026 that we have a commitment to increase the number of square meters, which not necessarily mean to have more stores, but it can also mean to have a little bit larger stores in important places of the world. So we are committed to really keep this growth balanced between products. And the incredibly good news has been 2023 around leather goods and finally having a complete great offer on leather goods. And on the other side, really focusing on a correct balance between all geographies of the world. So this will be our main objectives and main behaviors. And we will have some square meters more in 2025 and 2026, for sure.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you, Andrea. Maybe one last quick one on Car Shoe and Church's. I understand they're very small. These two footwear brands have shrunk steadily over the years. I think less than EUR 50 million in sales combined for 2023. Isn't this a bit of a distraction now? What's the ultimate plan? I mean, I see you're rationalizing the store network, but surely you must have a plan to either reboot them or perhaps divest. I mean, they seem incredibly tiny in group context, but I'm sure they take a bit of your energy, both of you, Andrea and Andrea.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I think that it's step by step. So the last almost two years, as you know, we have been undergoing a proper restructuring of Church's business and Church's network. I can tell you that 2023 has been a like-for-like growth year for Church's. And now it's a question of working. We all feel that it's an untold jewel. We need to work hard on the products, on the brands, on the people, on the network. I think we proved it with the work done on Miu Miu. And I hope that soon we will come back to you and dedicate time to talk to you about Church's. Once we have finalized this work, we will move to the Car Shoe.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you. And best of luck.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. We're now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Louise Singlehurst from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll stick to two. I wonder, firstly, if we could just go back to the U.S. and thinking about, obviously, the improvement that we've seen from Q3 into Q4 and whether you think, obviously, we're on the more positive trajectory now for that market. I know we've got Mr. Guerra on the telephone. He knows the U.S. incredibly well. So I wonder if there's any comments with regards to entry, high-end apparel versus leather, just to help us understand what you're currently seeing. And then my second question, I wondered if we could just check the comments just to make sure I'm understanding correctly with regards to the first couple of months of the year. I know it's very early, and we've still got March to go.

I think you talked about a magnitude which was similar to Q4, Andrea, if I'm correct. I just wondered if we could break that down? Is that including China? Or presumably, there's a deceleration in China given the reopening. I just want to make sure we're referencing against that kind of teens growth that we saw in Q4. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Regarding this, we were talking about the group. Obviously, we're talking about a few weeks. I mean, we're talking about, what is it, nine weeks? We're talking about group trend, not Chinese or nothing else. This is a group trend across the nine past weeks. In terms of USA, I think this is the most complicated question that we should have to answer. That is, I really hope that USA, North America will be the fantastic, good surprise for 2024. I think there are a lot of reasons why we should see this. Let me say, more than 50% of the answer is on us. That is, we are underrepresented in the United States. We have not always curated all the aspects of North America efficiently. We are putting a huge ton of work. Even our real estate CapEx has been there.

I think that the United States has to be a kind of leading wagon for us in our next years. Hopefully, it will be good news in 2024. Today, I have to tell you that it's a lot of mixed feelings, more positive than negative, but it's mixed feelings, one week bad, one week good. One side is East Coast, one side is West Coast. One time is more accessory-driven. Sometimes it's something else. So we are yet in a kind of nervous momentum. Let's see what happens.

Operator

Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

We are now going to take our next question. The questions come from the line of Charles-Louis Scotti from Kepler Cheuvreux . Please ask your question.

Charles-Louis Scotti
Head of Luxury Goods Equity Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Good afternoon. One question on your store network. You said that the scope effect has been negative over the past two years. What are the outlooks in terms of net store openings in 2024? What should we assume in terms of scope effect? And if I recall well, part of the negative scope impact was due to the closing of outlets. Can you give us an update on the number of outlets that you are still planning to close down in the coming years? And what should be the growth impact on scope coming from the closure of outlets? And second question on price increases. You have been more, let's say, cautious than peers over the past few years, considering how desirable your brands are and how strong is the momentum.

Do you see room to further elevate the price positioning of both Prada and Miu Miu in the coming years? Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So regarding outlets, I think that we are on a journey. And the journey has started some years ago. Obviously, there is also a question of allowing the contracts to come to the right point. And we will continue. So we feel that we still have some more of what we need. And this will happen in at least two-three years because, obviously, there are also contracts and relationships. So the road is there. The road will continue. And I think that in two-three years, we will come to our final point. In terms of branding, positioning, pricing, opportunities, I would ask Lorenzo to give an answer.

Lorenzo Bertelli
Marketing Director and Head of Corporate Social Responsibility, Prada Group

Hi. So thank you for your question. No, I think, generally speaking, about elevation, I will say that already today, brand and Miu Miu are in a top spot overall in the market. We cannot complain. I think it's more about how to keep going with this elevation and becoming more efficient and becoming, let's say, more relevant with the offers of product and with the marketing strategy. But I think already today, we are super satisfied with what we are achieving. So it's just a matter of keep doing that without doing mistakes and take the opportunities. And already, I think, especially Prada showed something at the end of last year of which are our commitments in terms of real estate for elevating the brand in the future. So it's part of a long-term strategy.

I think we have a very clear idea of where we have to go.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Charles-Louis Scotti
Head of Luxury Goods Equity Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Chris Wong from UBS. Please ask your question.

Chris Wong
Managing Director and Head of Active Portfolio Advisory North Asia, UBS

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three questions, please. Firstly, just on leather goods, the Q4 leather goods performance was very solid at 8% growth on an effects-neutral basis. We've been seeing on various channels that you've been launching many initiatives, including leather goods dedicated campaigns and also bringing back some models from the brand's archives. So maybe can you just comment on how you have been seeing latest trends in this category? Are you seeing any acceleration? And how are consumers responding to the latest launches? That's my first question, please.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

So first of all, I would love to tell you what I feel about what happened in leather goods across the industry and then ourselves. I think leather goods in the industry have had a wonderful journey for many years with a huge double-digit increase, volumes, and prices. I think 2023 has been, for many, a kind of year where that kind of pattern was not valid anymore. For us, I think 2023 overall has been for both brands a solid positive year, Prada with its dual positioning in the exclusive reigning positioning and iconic leather. And as I was saying before, for Miu Miu with a kind of completion of an offer that could cover different moments of the day and the night and different ladies and attitudes. We are entering 2024 with the usual our approach, which is novelties on one side.

The rhythm of novelties has already been seen in the market with a strong launch at the beginning of the year for Prada and a couple of launches for Miu Miu in the past 10 weeks. On the other side, as you're saying, we are also pushing on our icons on both brands with specific activities, specific animations, specific campaigns, nothing incredibly different from what's going in the world. I think that being able to continue this balance between novelties and iconization of certain products, we can really go back and conquer and reconquer our given market shares.

Chris Wong
Managing Director and Head of Active Portfolio Advisory North Asia, UBS

Okay. That's super helpful. And secondly, just on wholesale, a little bit of clarification because your wholesale in Q4 was super strong. So I just wanted to check if there are any impacts from changing delivery times we should bear in mind here.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

No. No. No. It's just a question of deliveries. No. There is nothing there.

Chris Wong
Managing Director and Head of Active Portfolio Advisory North Asia, UBS

Okay. And then lastly, I think previously, you were on another call earlier, like Q3 or earlier. You were saying pricing is expected to be around missing a digit for this year. Can you confirm this? And together with this, how do you think how much do you think pricing will contribute to your growth for 2024 as a whole? Is it 50/50 pricing and volumes, or how should we think about this? Thank you very much.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So when we think about volume, when we think about pricing, there is a third aspect, which is either halfway between the two or the most complicated of the two, which is the mix. And I think that our pricing activities will continue as usual, as we have done in the past years. On the other side, we are really working hard, especially on ready-to-wear and leather goods, in order to play a mixed game. So being able to invest in more valued products, having the proper story behind them, having the proper sessions behind them in the stores and with consumers, and being able to shift a little bit the mix of our products and our sales during the year, I would say, on both brands. So 2024, I think it's much more a mixed year than anything else.

Chris Wong
Managing Director and Head of Active Portfolio Advisory North Asia, UBS

Okay. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Thank you.

Next question, if any.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Liwei HOU from China International Capital Corporation. Please ask your question.

Liwei HOU
Equity Research Senior Associate, China International Capital Corporation

Good evening. Congratulations on the excellent results. I have two questions. The first one is on leather goods. I've seen that our new launch of the Buckle bag with belt has been successfully received in China. It has a price point over EUR 4,000. I remember around a year ago, Mr. Guerra, you have mentioned leather goods will be a key for Prada. I just want to understand, will EUR 4,000 be a new benchmark for us to build our next generation of leather goods around, or is this more of one of creation? That's my first question. Thank you.

Lorenzo Bertelli
Marketing Director and Head of Corporate Social Responsibility, Prada Group

Hi. Good evening, it's Lorenzo Bertelli. I'll answer to your question saying that, of course, leather goods is at the core of the brand Prada. It's becoming more and more relevant also for Miu Miu. I think it's part of our, let's say, merchandising strategy to making sure we cover every price point level within the offer. So I think the Buckle you mentioned is a very clear example of that strategy. It's always been, I would say, so far, we are very satisfied in terms both of reception from the market and also from the customers. So so far, we are satisfied. But it's just the beginning of the launch.

Liwei HOU
Equity Research Senior Associate, China International Capital Corporation

Thank you very much, Lorenzo. My second question is on the vertical integration. I see that as part of Mr. Guerra's concluding remarks. I wonder, how is the internalization going? Which direction are we going to focus on? Because I think we have seen successful examples of more innovative products coming out. I believe these are thanks to the internal capacity. I wonder if you could shed some light on our internal production as contribution to our overall, and how would that evolve going forward? Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I think our manufacturing and industrial platform is one of the secrets or non-secrets of Prada Group's success. This is giving us credibility, quality, efficiency, and what I think it's the most important characteristic, flexibility. I think this is what we have built in the last 50 years. This is what we have to build in the next period. Anything we do is related to having the opportunity to innovate some processes, having the opportunity to safeguard some unbelievable know-how in some of our suppliers, constantly readapting and growing our internal manufacturing capacity to a correct level. More and more, if you ask me, do you prefer a supply chain that gives you $1 more or one week more before to the market, I will always repeat, I want to be one week before in the market. This is the way we're working.

This is the way we will continue to work.

Liwei HOU
Equity Research Senior Associate, China International Capital Corporation

Thank you very much, indeed.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I think this is the last question. Is it correct? Okay. So we're going to take another two questions, please.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Thierry Cota from Société Générale. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Thierry Cota
Equity Research Analyst, Société Générale

Yes. Good afternoon, gentlemen. I had a follow-up question, actually, on the margin. You show and generate a very high sales growth, well above competitors. But we do see the EBIT margin, 22%-23%, which is well lower than some of your peers, including some with a lower gross margin. And when you look at the details of last year's P&L, we see no operating leverage on A&P, on G&A, and on design and development. So I was wondering, what do you expect and do you plan to see in terms of margin profile going forward for the group? What would be a fair long-term target for the group as a whole in the long term? And do you think at some point that you will prioritize margin over sales growth and market share?

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Hi, Thierry. Andrea Bonini.

Thierry Cota
Equity Research Analyst, Société Générale

Hi, Andrea.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

So look, I think, first of all, I mean, I'll start reiterating the point that the priority is growth. I mean, to achieve, as we said, I mean, solid above-market growth. We like to keep a nice trajectory of progressive margin expansion. But that very much depends on revenue growth. And it's secondary vis-à-vis investing behind the brands to support our growth objectives. The ambition longer term is certainly to achieve what the best in class in the sector are achieving. And so in conclusion, we won't be focused on the short term. We said it many times already when it comes to profitability. But there's no doubt that we have room for further margin expansion.

The other point, specifically related to 2023, sorry, is that on A&P and marketing, I mean, that's indeed, I mean, as I just said, it's a strategic choice, right, to support the brand in a certain way. If we look forward, I mean, that will continue to be the strategy. If we look forward, I mean, in terms of marketing, we would anticipate to maintain a similar incidence on net revenues to 2023, if not slightly above. The aim for the rest of the OPEX is to reduce OPEX growth. In 2022 and 2023, there's been a significant acceleration in recruiting, including at top level. Selling and G&A also has seen a normalization post-COVID when some expense levels were very low. There are some cost lines, IT, for example, where we will continue to see more meaningful increases.

But on other cost lines, I mean, we aim to change the trajectory this year.

Thierry Cota
Equity Research Analyst, Société Générale

Okay. Thank you. So what you're saying is that the setup now is more mature and broad enough, and you can leverage that into a higher margin going forward. Do I understand well?

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

What I said is we intend to change the trajectory this year for other OPEX lines. Therefore, we would expect to see operating leverage to continue to come through.

Thierry Cota
Equity Research Analyst, Société Générale

Okay. Okay. This is clear. Thank you very much.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you. One last question, please. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our last question. The questions come from the line of Chris Gao from CLSA. Please ask your question.

Chris Gao
Consumer Research Analyst, CLSA

Thanks for taking my questions, management. Congratulations on the great results. This is Chris Gao from CLSA. I have two questions. Firstly, about Miu Miu, can we have a sense of Miu Miu's Chinese clientele growth in the year of 2023? And how much does this clientele contribute to Miu Miu's sales now? And how does the Chinese clientele growth look like versus other clientele like American and European? I'll ask my next question after a kind answer. Thanks.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So what was good about Miu Miu, and this is what I was saying before, is that especially when you have a growth of the kind of growth we had, cannot be one nationality, cannot be one product. But what it's good about is that we had a really balanced growth with the highest velocity in Europe in the past periods. I think this is also very important for our progression and our future. We are not giving percentages specifically on consumers behind the brand. But what you have to know is that we really had, and this is what makes me happy and also comfortable about Miu Miu growth. It was well balanced between geographies and well balanced between products. This is my answer. Thank you.

Chris Gao
Consumer Research Analyst, CLSA

Thank you. So the second question is related to your travel retail channel. So may we ask, from a group perspective, how does your travel retail channel grow in 2023? I believe this should be helped by the China reopening as well as the continuous other APEC countries reopening. And just wondering, how does this channel look like versus 2019, the magnitude of recovery? And yeah, right now, how much does this channel contribute to your sales? Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So what I can tell you is that, obviously, in 2023, we can say that travel has got really back to the levels of 2019 with all the ups and downs we had during 2020, 2021, and 2022, and has been one of the drivers, obviously, of the growth. But I wouldn't say that this channel is big enough to influence the overall success.

Chris Gao
Consumer Research Analyst, CLSA

Okay. Thank you very much.

Patrizio Bertelli
Chairman of the Board and Executive Director, Prada Group

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to Mr. Andrea Bonini for closing remarks.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you, everyone, for joining. We're looking forward to speaking again for our Q1 results at the end of April. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a great day.

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