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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 31, 2023

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Prada Group 2023 third quarter results presentation. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be aware that we will take and answer one question at a time before moving to the next question. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Andrea Bonini, CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the Prada Group's nine months 2023 revenue update. I'm delighted to be with you again, and with me today is our Group CEO, Andrea Guerra. We will start with some opening remarks and then move to Q&A. Before we start, please be reminded that during today's call, we may discuss forward-looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties, and factors beyond our control, and the actual outcome and returns may differ materially from such statements. Please refer to the disclaimer included in the slide 2 of our presentation. With that, I will hand over to Andrea Guerra.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Welcome, everybody. So we have finished this first nine months of the year with a group of solid results, both in terms of brand desirability and business performance. Until when the two things will go together, we will be happy. For sure, this quarter was the toughest quarter for us in terms of comparison, and I think that we have achieved a little bit more as well of what we were thinking to achieve, considering that at the end of the nine months, for the group, in the two years, like for like, is 51%. So it really means that whatever happened, we have been able to trail our journey without bumps.

What is good about all this period is how well received, where both our shows, Miu Miu on one side and Prada on the other side, in September, October, really reflecting a strong brand and creative momentum on both sides. All the regions of the world have shown growth, most of them double-digit growth, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Europe, doing more than average for all quarters. I would highlight Europe again with a single digit, almost high single digit in Q3, again, against probably one of the best quarter ever a year ago. Good growth of the Chinese cluster on the comparison to 2022, but also in acceleration comparing to 2021, so a two-year stack, with a visible growth of Chinese traveler transactions.

North American cluster is just a few drops down, but on the two years, I would like always to remember that is +57%. Moving to Prada specifically, I would say that, if we look at on a two years like for like, which is the measurement that I always prefer to look at, basically the rhythm in Q3 was similar to all our quarters. And if we compare only full price retail, Prada was basically double digit, very close to be double digit as well in this quarter. We could have been a little bit soft on inventory, for a period of 3-4 weeks, and probably we could have done a better job, but, I mean, you're never, you're never perfect.

We've been living all this period celebrating and interpreting Prada's codes and cultural identity, shows very well received. And again, Prada was put as the cultural, natural curator of the industry. And last season, this past season, really, we have been going through a very strong season, supported by a lovely artistic cultural campaign, In Conversation with a Flower. Many things have happened for Prada in the business, in the geographies, with the products, with events, with the Prada Mode events, with the launch of the beauty category, great response, and the announcement of the partnership with Axiom on lunar spacesuits. So all of these things is only to give you an idea of the great health of the brand. If we move to the different page, which is Miu Miu again, another quarter.

In the nine months, is basically +50% on last year. It's complicated when you have such a performance to go and highlight specific items or specific things which have been successful: brand desirability, a range of great activities and events, great products, momentum, and team is doing great. Obviously, when you're doing this kind of performance, is the time when you have to be humble, no complacencies, and keep your journey straightforward. I think that these are the main remarks on the group, main remarks on Prada, main remarks on Miu Miu and please, Andrea, take it from here.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you, Andrea. Starting with net revenues by channel, total, the group recorded net revenues of EUR 3.344 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 17% against the same period last year at constant effects. This was driven by high-quality retail growth throughout the period, with a positive contribution from both average price and full price volumes. In the third quarter, retail sales were up by a solid 10%, notwithstanding the toughest basis of comparison of the year. On wholesale, we kept our approach selective with independence, while we continued to see sustained growth in the DFS channel. Royalties, the business delivered strong growth of 67% in Q3, continuing to enjoy strong demand for both eyewear and fragrances. Exchange rates had a negative impact on group revenue of around four percentage points during the first nine months.

Turning to the next slide, retail sales by brand. Prada delivered +13% growth in the 9 months, driven by full price, like-for-like sales. Q3, at +5%, continued to show a positive performance, with a more moderate but solid pace compared to H1, due to the very challenging basis of comparison, particularly in Europe. Miu Miu delivers outstanding growth in the nine months at +49%, including in Q3, +48%, well spread across regions and categories. The brand contribution on group retail sales increased to 15%, to 12% in the same period of last year. Moving to the next slide, retail sales by geography. Asia Pacific progressed well over the first nine months at +21% on a volatile basis of comparison, as 2022 saw significant disruption in Q2 and Q4.

Growth continued to be double-digit in Q3, despite tougher comps, with Hong Kong and Macau continuing to deliver the highest growth. Europe grew by +17% in the nine months, supported by healthy local demand and high level of tourism. Q3 performance remained positive year-on-year at +6%, with solid underlying demand, albeit moderated on very challenging comps as expected. In the Americas, we ended the nine months substantially flat, with a mild sequential improvement in Q3 versus Q2. Japan continued to deliver outstanding growth with +42% in Q3, benefiting from strong local demand and increasing tourist flows. And lastly, the Middle East also delivered a solid performance at +12% in the nine months, albeit in slight moderation in the last quarter. Moving to retail sales by product.

All product categories maintained growth in the third quarter, with ready-to-wear continuing to lead at +25% in Q3 to +32% in the nine months. So very, very strong reception of the collections that continues. Leather goods was up +1% in Q3 to +8% in the nine months, and we continue to focus on icons, building on the success of Galleria's campaign at Prada and on Wander and Arcadie at Miu Miu but also newness. Lastly, footwear delivered +10% in Q3 to +16% in the nine months, with broad-based growth across formal, sneaker, and lifestyle collections. With that, I will hand back to Andrea Guerra for some closing remarks.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Grazie, Andrea. So, as I said at the beginning, we're happy about this nine months. And, I could also add, October as a month that made us happy, so we can talk about the last 10 months of the year. For sure, our toughest period to comp against has gone. And I could say, obviously or eventually or now again, we are in another period of turbulence, tensions. And, we have seen in some weekends some ups and downs, and therefore, everything has to be better executed. We have to be more focused, precise in all our activities. We are entering a super period of holidays, obviously in front of a kind of a macroeconomic, a geopolitical new situation. So we have to move on, continue to invest.

We need to keep on investing and keep on putting brick after brick in our retail excellence journey. Numbers you are seeing is basically, I would say, almost 100% like for like. I would say it's even more than what we see because the great performance is driven by the full price stores. So, this is for Prada, and this is for Miu Miu working on quality of people, working on training, working on motivations, working on routines, working on KPIs, working on those things that make our clientele, our consumers happy. Now we're all moving towards a very important holiday season, or better, it's basically starting as we talk. We will continue to perform, and we will continue to perform above industry average.

So obviously, we are today beginning to plan 2024, and we are really hoping to conclude another solid year, 2023. With this, thank you, and we are now ready for some Q&A. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Once again, it's star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please be aware that we'll take and answer one question at a time before moving to the next question. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The question's come from Susy Tibaldi from UBS. Please ask your question.

Susy Tibaldi
Executive Director, UBS

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I have two, but start with the first one. You very helpfully shared that also October, you're very happy with the start of Q4. Can you comment if there has been any specific change in trends by nationality versus what you said, related to Q3? Especially interested to hear your assessment of the European consumers, as it seems that these are seeing the biggest pressure in terms of luxury demand. Is this something that could be a potential source of concern going into Q4 and into next year? That's my first question.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So, when you look to fourth quarter, October is meaningless, because obviously November and December are more important. Looking to European cluster, I have to say that, obviously, compared to some quarters ago, we are in a more normal period, but, yet today, our Q3 has been really, really solid in Q3 as well. So we have not seen basic differences. I would say that things have turned to be a little bit normal compared to what we have seen in the two or three years before. What I can add is that for sure, in some cities of the world, in the past weeks, we have seen a little bit more tension driven by macro geopolitical happenings.

I would say that so far, we have not seen basic differences.

Susy Tibaldi
Executive Director, UBS

Okay, thanks. My second question is on Miu Miu which performance, outstanding. First of all, is this quite broad-based, or is it driven mostly by Asia? And what's—I was interested to know is, what are the implications for profitability? Because this brand, I remember, used to be a very huge drag on your profits. So what's the gap now, versus Prada? And is it narrowing, or is it remaining bigger because you're investing more in Miu Miu?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So let me answer to the first part. I mean, when you're doing +50%, cannot be a region, cannot be a product, cannot be a customer. It's a, it's a brand which is in good health. It's a brand that is a position where the consumer is today. And, I think, that design and style is well interpreting this attitude, and the team is doing a great job. So I would put it like this: obviously, we have room to continue to improve. We're not at the forefront of everything. We are catching up, and we still have a journey to go. Andrea, if you want to add any kind of other comment on profitability?

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

On profitability, Miu Miu was already on a very positive trajectory last year, and and it's now on a remains and even accelerates, right, the trajectory this year. The gap is narrowing. So Prada, as of today, remains ahead in terms of brand EBIT margin, but the gap is narrowing. So it's a very, very considering the like-for-like performance of this year, is a very, very positive step forward for Miu Miu. Also, you have to consider that, if you look at the average size of a Miu Miu store is smaller than a Prada store, and so productivity gets very interesting.

Susy Tibaldi
Executive Director, UBS

Thanks. Just a quick follow-up. Pricing-wise, you commented in the past about the price increases at the Prada brand. Miu Miu has it seen similar level of price increases, or has it been a bit bigger?

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

I would say similar.

Susy Tibaldi
Executive Director, UBS

Okay, thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Erwan Rambourg from HSBC. Please ask your question.

Erwan Rambourg
Managing Director and Head of Consumer and Retail Equity Research, HSBC

Yeah, hi, good afternoon, and congratulations. I think you've commented to the press that you were looking to deliver above-market growth. I'm just wondering if you're comfortable where the consensus stands for the full year, and if this implies that you can potentially deliver double-digit growth for next year. Just going back to that pricing question, what role would pricing have for 2024? I know some brands might have gone a bit too high, too quickly, and now they're paying the price with the aspirational consumer being disconnected. How do you think about the pricing part of the equation for next year's growth? Thank you.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

So on the consensus, we're not gonna comment in general, specifically. And by the way, if I had to say, I mean, uncertainty over the past, you know, two, three weeks has certainly increased rather than decreased, I mean, from a geopolitical macro standpoint. Having said that, I can only reiterate what Andrea said, that, you know, we feel, you know, we are well positioned to meet our ambition to deliver the above-market growth for the year. And for next year, and let Andrea comment, but I think it's early, other than, you know, saying that, you know, we should, you know, probably retain that objective to continue to deliver, you know, solid growth.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I mean, I would not add much more in terms of pricing. I think that in terms of pricing, we are going to have a constant and clean maintenance of our pricing levels. So, I would say that during 2023, we have gone with a Miu Miu and Prada with more or less a between 4% to 6% on, with differences on regional basis, and most probably we're going to have something similar next year.

Erwan Rambourg
Managing Director and Head of Consumer and Retail Equity Research, HSBC

Okay, thank you. Best of luck. Next question, please.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and it comes from the line of Edouard Aubin from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, good afternoon. Just before asking the question, just one clarification, please, for Andrea. Well, you, you talked about, you know, October starting well and, and you said it's not a very significant quarter for you, but at least it gives us some indication. So you're talking on a two-year stack, October, no change really, versus Q3, basically. That's the way we should understand your remarks?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Yeah.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, understood. Very clear. And then second question is on the leather goods. You kind of have a stated objective, I don't know if you agree with the word stated, of increasing your share of leather goods to potentially 60% over time. I know there is no set date, but we see year-to-date actually a decrease in the mix. I mean, part of it is because you're doing so well in ready-to-wear and at, I guess, at Miu Miu as well. But you know, are you happy with the progress you're making kind of, you know, developing your pillars? You mentioned, you know, Galleria. I think you made a push over the summer. You had good press coverage.

But looking at, you know, social media trends, it doesn't seem that there is a big pickup, but maybe I'm looking at the wrong data set. So, you know, just any comment on, you know, progress in leather goods and developing the pillar would be, would be interesting. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Yes, obviously, so I would say I would position my answer in two ways. The first is Q3 was highly, highly more complicated on Prada leather goods than anything else. I always would love to remember and remind everyone that in 2022, 2021 and 2020, leather goods market have had an unbelievable dimensional increase. Just thinking about testing and trying on products, that was the easiest to be bought in periods of social distancing. And the most probably nowadays, even looking to some more macro numbers and some competition numbers, I would say that leather goods is a little bit taking a kind of breath. So, looking to the comparison, looking to the world where we are today, we're happy. Could have we done better? Always. No doubts.

So, I think leather goods is one of the best results of the quarter, but we could have done for sure a better job, and we will continue to work on that. In terms of iconization, managing the mix between leather and it, it's moving on. So, nothing is decelerating. I think we have a strong portfolio of products going forward, and we will continue to work.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. And then last question on, you know, Andrea, in the past few months, you reminded us that, you know, Prada would remain in investment mode, in the short to medium term. Clearly, you want to continue to grow your brand desirability, you want to invest behind the brand and keep ANP level at a high level. I assume obviously there is no real change there, but are you seeing, you know, the cost to compete changing, given, you know, maybe a slightly more muted demand for the sector, overall? Or your most of your peers and competitors are still spending and I guess, therefore, forcing you to keep a high level of spending behind the brand?

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

I'll take it, Andrea Bonini. If it was for me, Edward. But no, so look, I mean, they're not, they're not forcing us. I think, you know, it's we do remain in, you know, in a very willing investment investment mode. In the sense that, yes, there may be a progressive, you know, normalization, but ultimately, when we look ahead, I mean, we look at the potential of the brands, and, you know, we look at the long-term margin upside, and, you know, we do believe that is, that that is unchanged.

So overall, and this is not, you know, a short-term thing, this is not the last three or six months or 12 months, I mean, I do believe that the cost to compete in the sector overall has, has progressively increased, but, but there's no change, frankly, on that over the past, few weeks or months. In, in light of, you know, the tragic, developments also of the past few weeks in the Middle East, in light of, you know, the uncertainties of, of the macro, we have to continue to be very vigilant and reactive and ready to react, but our attitude, if we think about 2024, has not changed. We remain willing to invest and invest, and invest progressively more.

Edouard Aubin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you, guys.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Thank you. Next question?

Operator

We're now going to proceed with our next question. It comes from the line of Thomas Chauvet from Citi Research. Please ask your question.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Good afternoon. Thank you. I have two questions, please. The first one on wholesale, which turned slightly negative in Q1... In Q3, sorry. You said Andrea, controlled evolution of wholesale. Could you separate the impact of your own cleanup initiatives from, you know, comments about the underlying trends you're seeing in the channel? So department stores, travel retail and online third-party platforms, we've seen particular weakness online in third quarter for the industry. That's my first question.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you. Thank you, Thomas. On wholesale, well, I mean, as you know, I think first of all, there's also on a quarterly basis, there's an impact on deliveries and so on. So, but if you look at the performance over the nine months and, you know, for the year, what we expect, yes, you need to really divide between the DFS business, which is growing almost triple-digit on 2022 because it was severely affected by by COVID disruptions and so on. And then the independent wholesale, which if I look at the performance for the nine months, is single-digit, low- to mid-single-digit down. But again, consider it the work of, call it rationalization, cleanup, and so on, completely, largely done on our side.

We can't really, given the size of our wholesale business, independent wholesale businesses of today, we're not really in a position to comment on those trends, because the reality is we voluntarily constrain the growth of it. And so, as far as we are concerned, we're not really affected by those dynamics, which as you, I mean, as an observer of the market, we do obviously see. And, yeah, and that's it.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you. And my second question on royalties, which continue to grow at a very high pace. They'll likely be EUR 100 million of revenues this year, I think for the first time ever. Given it's almost pure profit, that would be close to 10% of group EBIT. I'm sure you start to think this is quite a relevant business for the group. Can you comment a bit on your initiatives with L'Oréal and with EssilorLuxottica to grow these licenses further? And whether you think of other categories that could be subject to licensing and also what the rough split between beauty and eyewear in terms of revenue this year. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So for sure, we're not thinking to any other categories to be licensed. Eyewear is a super business since ever, and it's continuing to be. I think that, the success of a number of styles of Prada-... during last summer were very visible in, all resorts of the world. So I think the success is visible, is, there is no secret about it, and the relationship with, with Luxottica is, today, pretty good. On the other side, we are just at the beginning. We are really at the start-up phase. We are basically, what is it? 12, 15 months through the journey.

We have just launched the beauty and cosmetics, so I think that the journey will be, on this side, incredibly long, and hopefully, in the next two, three years, we will continue to see great growth and then a little bit more normalization. But it's a channel where visibility is almost everything, and today, Prada is not yet really visible, but the plans together with L'Oréal are fantastic and very clear. And we will see popping up Prada here and there in the world, in the main places, in the main department stores, in the main travel retail.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you. So eyewear is the largest part of that revenue pool. Can you give the split roughly between eyewear and beauty?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I mean, if you go back two years, it was all eyewear, and today is a little bit more balanced.

Thomas Chauvet
Managing Director, Citi

Okay. Thank you, Andrea.

Erwan Rambourg
Managing Director and Head of Consumer and Retail Equity Research, HSBC

Next question, please.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Luca Solca from Bernstein. Please ask your question.

Luca Solca
Research Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Yes, maybe a clarification question about growth drivers to start with. You were mentioning four to six percent contribution to growth from like-for-like pricing and price inflation. I wonder what mix contributed and what was the contribution from volume, if you look at year-to-date sales growth?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I would say, if we take mix and price on one side and volume on the other side, 50/50-

Luca Solca
Research Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Okay.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

On all main categories, I would say.

Luca Solca
Research Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Understood.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

We had, which I think is always a parameter of good health. I think we had a good quality increase as well this year.

Luca Solca
Research Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Maybe getting deeper into pricing and price mix. There seems to be some feedback from multi-brand retailers of consumers potentially putting the foot on the brake as far as price increases are concerned. I was just wondering, relative to your collection structure, are you well equipped to possibly take care of consumers being more cautious as far as their purchases are concerned? This seems to be the shape of things to come, especially in the uncertainty that is possibly going to characterize 2024. Do you maintain a strong entry price assortment in all product categories, so that you can potentially capture consumers going for lower priced products?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

When we look at collections, and once we have concluded all our stylistic and design approach, there are three things we look at. First of all, is entry price. Second of all, is the dimension of the range. And third thing is, which high prices we want to go and explore. So these are the three things we do every time, and I always feel that the first conversation has to be about entry price and the competitive level of our products at entry price, and I think we are well set off there. I think we can achieve a larger range of prices going upwards. Obviously, it depends on our ability to make our brands even more desirable, our store even more comfortable, and our people even more proactive. So I think that that is the real opportunity we have.

Luca Solca
Research Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

That's very clear, Andrea. Can I ask you, in leather goods, specifically, if you're observing any particular trend when it comes to which portion of the collection is getting the strongest support from consumers? Is it at the entry price? Is it the mid-price or the top price portion of the handbags?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I wouldn't put it this way nowadays. Obviously, as we are all aware, there has been a kind of inflationary push on leather goods in the past three years. So obviously, the top of the range now needs substance, so people are looking to the brand, looking again to desirability, to the longer term value of those products. I would say that today is much more in terms of style and design rather than price... So there is a kind of shift in the market today, and there is segments of leather goods which are flying, and others which are a little bit more relaxing.

Luca Solca
Research Analyst, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

Understood. Thank you very much, Andrea.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

We are going to take our next question. The question comes from Melania Grippo from BNP Paribas. Please ask your question.

Melania Grippo
Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. I have two question. One, the first one is on Japan. That remains quite strong in the quarter. I remember that in Q2, you mentioned that the share of tourists was quite small. Could you please tell us if that is still the case? And also, if spending by locals deteriorated in the quarter or is holding up?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So in Japan, we are seeing a growth in travelers, especially from, I would say, China. Yet today, the majority is locals. But we have seen an acceleration of travelers in the past, I would say, three, four, five months.

Melania Grippo
Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Yes, but locals, are they holding up then?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

For sure. I mean-

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Very well.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

If we have the results we have, for sure they are holding up.

Melania Grippo
Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Okay. And my second question is on your fine jewelry collection. I saw that you introduced, for the Eternal Gold, some lab-grown diamond pieces. And I was wondering if you could share with us, if going forward, you intend to use only these stones versus the mined ones, and also if you're using renewable energy to produce them?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So for sure, we're continuing with our sustainability conversation and project. And we have been happy, 12 months after the first introduction, to come up with the second chapter, and we will continue to trail in our journey. So for sure, there will be other chapters, other ideas coming on. And as we were happy, we continue to be happy with our jewelry, fine jewelry division.

Melania Grippo
Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

We're now going to proceed with our next question. The question has come from the line of Louise Singlehurst from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good afternoon, Andrea. And Andrea, thank you very much for taking my questions. I wonder if I could just ask, a little bit about China. You kindly provided, some feedback on the Chinese cluster earlier on in the call. But can I just check, the performance for the Prada brand, if we think about Q1, Q2, and Q3 on that two-year comparable basis? That would be very helpful. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I didn't understand what you were looking for. Can you repeat it?

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Of course. Sorry, Andrea, I'm not being clear. I wondered if you could help us think about the Prada brand performance among the Chinese cluster, so spending at home and abroad, but on a comparable basis on a two-year stack, so 2020-

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So it's what we have said at the beginning, when we talk about certain figures at the end, Prada makes it all. So I would say that Chinese cluster has substantially increased in Q3, and especially travelers, which is still a small part, but increased substantially.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, thank you. And is there any chance of a number around those in terms of Q3 or just a degree of the magnitude Q3 versus Q2?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Q3 increased.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, thank you. And then my second question, I just wondered, just looking at, the Prada brand up 5%, can you help us think about... I know we've had a lot of discussion around pricing on the call and, and demand by category and, and price point and, and color there. Can you help us think about the demand by cohort? You know, the aspirational versus the higher end or the more loyal customers to Prada, if you're seeing any difference in purchase behavior across the different types of customer within Prada brand. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Yeah. So if you look. First of all, if we look to full price, which is the indicator we're looking with more effort and details, it's not a +5, but it's basically a double-digit growth of Prada, again, in the quarter. Second, the success in all product categories, I would say that I'm not really seeing big differences. I can tell you that we are upgrading our proposal and offer, and consumers are following up on our upgraded offer and proposal. Having said that, Prada sits naturally in this world of lifestyle on one side and chic on the other side. And I would not say that I've seen differences in these two big planets, which we could turn in another 17 worlds that we look at.

But I wouldn't say that I have seen very specific differences in this nine months or three months in specific. I was also adding one thing, that probably with Prada specifically, we lost some sales because of some seasons changeover, where we have been a little bit delayed.

Speaker 14

Got it. Thank you for the color.

Erwan Rambourg
Managing Director and Head of Consumer and Retail Equity Research, HSBC

Next question, please.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question come from the line of Thierry Cotta from Société Générale. Please ask your question.

Thierry Cota
Research Analyst, Societe Generale

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three, two on EBIT. First, you just said earlier that the gap was narrowing between the profitability of Miu Miu and that of Prada. I was wondering whether it's only because Miu Miu's margin is going up, or whether Prada, at the 5% organic growth on retail and probably slower overall, sees its margin slightly erode currently. The second question on group EBIT, I think you've said in the past that you thought that H2 margin for the group as a whole could be similar to that of a year before and that of H1. I was wondering whether you could reiterate and confirm that H2 margin around 22%. And lastly, very specific question on the Middle East.

I know it's what's happened there is extremely recent, but since you distinguished that revenue line in your breakdown, I was wondering whether there were some signs already of deterioration of demand there in the recent days/week, weeks. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I would like to answer you that this is a revenue call, and first and second question, we're not going to answer, but basically, what we said before is what we believe. It's not a question of Prada's going down but Miu Miu catching up, and the other is everything that Andrea said during H1 call. In terms of Middle East, so far, no news.

Thierry Cota
Research Analyst, Societe Generale

Okay. So no, no signs yet of anything special?

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

No.

Thierry Cota
Research Analyst, Societe Generale

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

Next question, please.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question come from the line of Liwei Hu from CICC. Please ask your question.

Liwei Huo
Equity Research and Senior Associate, CICC

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question. Congratulations. It's, it's not easy to deliver double digits in the third quarter. I have two questions, actually. The first one is a follow-up on Chinese cluster. Would you be kind enough to share with us current exposure to Chinese cluster? And also, on the price gaps, say, Europe is 100, what would be the price in Chinese mainland and in Japan separately at the moment? That's my first question.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I don't think we are ready to answer to your questions.

Liwei Huo
Equity Research and Senior Associate, CICC

Oh, no worries. I'm just trying my luck. And the second question is more on a strategy level. I see that we are going to have Pradasphere second time in Shanghai in coming December and to celebrate 110th anniversary. So if I link that together with our pop-up event in Shanghai two years ago, I would say Prada has probably done more than the peers in terms of localization in engaging more with the local markets. I was wondering whether we see that as a strategic direction, and are there any comments you want to share about, you know, localization in the future? Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

So Pradasphere is a global initiative. The first step is Shanghai, but it's a global initiative, and it's a moment in which we are telling the story of this old, young brand with all its 360 footprints in culture, architecture, movies, art. So we're really trying to define our uniqueness once more, telling a story which is resulting very compelling around the world. And I don't think we're doing more than others. Probably, we are catching up.

Liwei Huo
Equity Research and Senior Associate, CICC

Understood. Very helpful. Thank you.

Andrea Guerra
CEO, Prada Group

I believe we have one last question, please. Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to take our last question. The question come from the line of Chris Gao from CLSA. Please ask your question.

Chris Gao
Research Analyst, CLSA

Thank you. Good afternoon, management. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three. So the first one is related to our margin trends. You mentioned about continued investment on brands, both product brands and in-house brands. So I'm just wondering, how would you see your trends in terms of the A&P, as well as your distribution expense trends in the second half in 2024? So do you see any possibility of the expense ratio going up in the foreseeable future? The second question is related to Chinese cluster. Can you help us review how does the breakdown of onshore spending versus offshore, by 9M 2023 of Chinese cluster versus pre-pandemic? And the third question is regarding your Stock Connect entrance. So how is the progress right now, and do we still expect the entrance anytime soon? Thank you.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

So on the margin trend, when we say that we will—we have accelerated investments, and we will continue to accelerate the investments, it means that overall, you know, we plan our spend on AMP or call it marketing, you know, to progressively increase. And as we said, I mean, that's really the priority, investing behind the brands. But I also reiterate once again that, you know, we like to keep a nice trajectory of progressive margin expansion, depending also on, you know, revenue growth. And that's secondary vis-à-vis investing behind the brands. So that's the summary of it. On Stock Connect, I don't have any, I don't have any news to share with you as of today. And lastly, the last one, I believe, was in relation to the Chinese spending, onshore versus offshore.

What I can share is that, as Andrea mentioned before, I mean, we're seeing the proportion of traveler transaction increasing progressively and quite significantly, compared to the... So if you look at the nine months 2023 compared to the nine months 2022 or nine months 2021, so the share of traveler transaction is higher, almost double, well, more than double percentage-wise. But compare, you know, to the pre-pandemic level, as you know, we're still long, long way from that.

Chris Gao
Research Analyst, CLSA

Understood. This is very helpful. Thank you.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you.

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to Mr. Andrea Bonini for closing remarks.

Andrea Bonini
CFO, Prada Group

Thank you very much, everyone, and looking forward to the next one, which is going to be our full year results in 2024. Thank you. Have a nice day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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