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Earnings Call: Q3 2018

Nov 8, 2018

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the third quarter 2018 Ctrip.com International Limited earnings conference call. My name is Edward and I will be the Moderator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a Q&A session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. Now, I will hand the call to Chief Communications Officer, Mr. Victor Tseng. Please begin. Thank you.

Victor Tseng
Chief Communications Officer, Ctrip

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Ctrip's third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call are Mr. James Liang, Executive Chairman of the Board, Ms. Jane Sun, Chief Executive Officer, and Ms. Cindy Wang, Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we will discuss our future outlook and performance, which are forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risk and uncertainties. As such, our results may be materially different from the views expressed today. A number of potential risks and uncertainties are outlined in Ctrip's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Ctrip does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required under applicable law.

James, Jane, and Cindy will share our strategy and business updates, operating highlights, and financial performance for the third quarter of 2018, as well as the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2018. After the prepared remarks, we will have a Q&A session. With that, I will turn the call over to James. James, please.

James Liang
Executive Chairman of the Board, Ctrip

Thank you, Victor, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. Ctrip continued making solid progress on every front of our business in the third quarter of 2018. Despite the softer growth of the overall market during the quarter, we increased the multiple by which we are outpacing the industry's average growth. We remain confident and enthusiastic about the huge long-term opportunity presented by both China's and the global travel industry and are working hard to further extend our market position. To start, I would like to share some of our thoughts on China's macro economy. We believe China will continue to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world going into the next decade, driven by technology advances, continued urbanization, and the evolution to a consumption and service-led growth model. This will sustain the growth of China's middle class over the long term.

Travel industry will naturally benefit from China's sustained economic growth. There are a couple of drivers that I'm particularly excited about going forward for China's travel industry. One, China has the largest network of high-speed rail expanding over 25,000 kilometers, twice that of the European system. By 2020, the high-speed rail will connect more than 80% of Chinese cities with a population over a million. This is helping make domestic travel very accessible and economical. In fact, when we recently launched the first high-speed rail tour channel on Ctrip app, within the first month, daily orders reached as high as 100,000. Two, China's commitment to its open economy strategy will continue to drive the growth of international travel. China's outbound travel base is already the world's largest, spending over $200 billion overseas last year, but currently accounts for less than 10% of the total Chinese population.

In past years, China's new passport issuance maintained annual growth of approximately 20%. Moreover, the Chinese passport can now allow Chinese to travel to 74 countries and territories around the world with no visa or visa on arrival requirements. In spite of the short-term fluctuation in the outbound travel growth, Ctrip is dedicated to extend our core competencies in international destination to meet the long-term demand of Chinese international travelers. Furthermore, leveraging China's advantage as the world's largest tourism source market, we are strengthening our global supply chain capability for non-Chinese users booking through Trip.com and Skyscanner. Third, foreigners traveling to China account for fewer than 30 million overnight trips once you take out visitors from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macau, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

There is a vast potential to increase this volume when compared to U.S., which has over 75 million inbound tour visitors every year. According to global research firm, Euromonitor in a recent report, China is set to become the world's number one tourist destination by 2030. Our global brands, Trip.com and Skyscanner, representing over 90 million monthly active global users, are in the prime position to capitalize on the opportunity to bring more foreigners to China. As such, we are excited about the opportunities in China travel industry that lie ahead. As historically, we have outpaced China GDP growth by over 4x , Ctrip is set to continue strengthening our market leadership position. Next month, we will celebrate the 15th anniversary of our IPO on Nasdaq. We have established a strong track record and are committed to continuing riding the travel growth wave.

During the high tides, we can boost our scale and profitability. During low tides, we can extend our competitive advantage and accelerate market share gain. We will continue to work hard to extend the advantage of the scale while seizing the opportunities presented by the globalization to drive Ctrip's long-term success. With that, I will turn the call over to Jane.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

Thanks, James. Hello, everyone. Ctrip reported solid results in the third quarter of 2018. In particular, accommodation revenue grew 21% year-over-year, mainly driven by volume growth. In the mid to high-end hotel segment, we have extended our leadership over our peers with the growth that doubled the hotel industry rate. In the lower-end hotel segment, Ctrip's brand volume growth further accelerated to around 50% year-over-year. Transportation volume grew 6% year-over-year. We continued to see strong volume growth across transportation product categories, while revenue growth was still impacted by the domestic air ticketing booking adjustments that we initiated in the second half of the fourth quarter last year. For the trailing 12 months ending September 30th, 2018, GMV, excluding Skyscanner's, increased by approximately 30% year-over-year, reaching RMB 690 billion. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 20%, continuing its consistent improvement from previous quarter.

Today, I would like to share updates on four points: Ctrip's customer base, user engagement, supplier network, and international development. First, on customer base. Ctrip has a large, growing, and loyal customer base, which includes 110 million monthly active users in China and more than 90 million outside of China across a portfolio of trusted brands, Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner. In total, this brings us over 200 million users, making Ctrip one of the largest travel-focused companies in the world. Ctrip and Qunar brands alone generate 130 million annual transacting customers in China that spend more than RMB 5,000 per year on our platform. Despite the large scale in China, there is still huge potential for us to expand our customer base. According to a recent study, China's middle class population will grow from 430 million in 2017 to 780 million in the next five to 10 years.

We have seen that when customers have a real travel demand, they prefer to use Ctrip to provide them with not only comprehensive travel products but also the most reliable services. 70% of our customers are under the age of 35 over the past five years. Within this number, young generation users under the age of 29 continues to grow from 30% to almost 50%, which represents the fastest growing age group in our portfolio. In addition, our customers have demonstrated strong loyalty and stickiness on our platform. This is primarily due to our one-stop shopping solution and superior service capabilities. Once our customer experiences Ctrip services, our annual repurchase ratio is 40%-50%, while biannual repurchase ratio increased to 70%-80%.

Just as importantly, according to our cohort data, we have been able to also increase their average travel spending each year by multiple folds, resulting in our repeating customer accounted for around 80% of total transactions. Second, on user engagement. The Ctrip app has become the go-to platform for Chinese travelers. We make it a super app for travel users. Our users are engaging with us more and more throughout their travel research, reservation process, and in-destination funnel. Our app covers over 60 travel-related products and services, meaning we offer one of the most comprehensive selections and are capable of covering all demands of a typical customer travel itinerary. We have around six million points of interest that include travel destination information, attraction tickets, restaurants, et cetera.

Those points of interest are supported by a vast number of user reviews to assist our users in finding, selecting, and booking in-destination products. As a result, 30%-40% of our app traffic during peak travel season is generated from our users while they are in destination. Ctrip's domestic in-destination activity transactions grew 60% year-over-year, and international in-destination transactions grew 120% year-over-year for in-destination activities during the third quarter. Third, expanding our supplier network and strengthening partnership. As we continue to expand our hotel partner network, the number of the hotels with guaranteed allotment increased by 160% year-over-year within China. We have launched a flagship store for Four Seasons and Hyatt and are already seeing thousands of incremental daily room nights for the two brands being booked through our flagship store. We are currently further expanding this initiative with more flagship stores currently under development.

By leveraging our unique insights into our travel market, Ctrip is helping our partners to better utilize our platform to understand our customers. To date, 70,000 hotel managers are taking training courses at Ctrip Hotel University, and witnessed a good boost in booking volume post-training. For airline partners, Ctrip's also committed to helping airlines to improve operating efficiency and to developing innovative membership service systems. For example, last month, Ctrip and KLM signed a strategic partner agreement to deepen the mutually beneficial cooperation. Fourth, our international development. Skyscanner is already one of the largest travel platforms in the world, and in the third quarter, its global MAU increased by 26% year-over-year. Direct booking grew approximately 250% year-over-year, contributing around 10% of Skyscanner's total worldwide bookings. In late September, we officially launched a rail app for international trains called TrainPal.

This is also our first product aimed at international audience to come out of our Baby Tiger program, which is an internal program that has fostered many internal travel innovations and businesses for Ctrip throughout the year. TrainPal utilizes technologies to sort through all the available routes and provide cheapest fare for our users. To date, TrainPal users have, on average, saved nearly 40% on train tickets when using TrainPal. The long-term vision for the app is a one-stop shop for global rail booking, allowing our users in any geographic to book rail system anywhere in the world. In summary, we are seeing our large, growing, and loyal base continue to increase their engagement on Ctrip's platform. We are selling more travel products across our customers' travel itinerary, and we have become increasingly diversified with revenue coming from our international businesses.

We have historically outpaced China's GDP growth by a factor of four. With our strong foundation in travel industry, despite the ongoing macro uncertainty, we are confident that we are the best travel company to capture more travel opportunities and share the growth going forward. With that, I will turn the call to Cindy. She will walk you through the details of our financial results.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thanks, Jane. Thanks, everyone. For the third quarter of 2018, Ctrip reported net revenue of RMB 9.4 billion, representing a 15% increase from the same period in 2017. Accommodation reservation revenue for the third quarter of 2018 was RMB 3.6 billion, up 21% year-on-year, primarily driven by increase in accommodation reservation volume. We further expanded our total global hotel coverage by over 20% year-on-year, reaching 1.4 million properties. International hotels continued to outperform in the industry, more than doubling the industry growth rate. Transportation ticketing revenue for the third quarter of 2018 was RMB 3.6 billion, representing a 6% increase from the same period in 2017. Air ticketing maintained strong volume growth. Particularly, our international air ticketing growth almost tripled outbound industry growth.

Similar to the first half of the year, revenue growth was offset by the decrease of per air ticket segment revenue, which is related to the operating adjustments we discussed in previous quarters. We expect the situation will improve in the following quarters with comparatively easier comps. Trip.com continued to perform exceptionally well in the third quarter and achieved a double-digit growth in air ticketing volume for the eighth consecutive quarter. Ground transportation, including train ticketing, bus ticketing, ferry ticketing, and car services, continued its strong performance. In September, we launched TrainPal, a rail ticketing app for the international market, to help local users find the cheapest railway tickets. Package tour revenue for the third quarter of 2018 was RMB 1.4 billion, up 28% year-on-year, primarily driven by increase in volume growth of both organized tour and self-guided tour.

By the end of the third quarter, we have over 7,000 offline stores covering more than 200 cities in China. Gross transaction value through offline stores increased over 80% year-on-year. Going forward, we will open more stores to increase our penetration in targeted lower-end cities. Customized tours also delivered exceptional performance, with gross bookings increased by 65% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the first class of graduates from our customized tour training camp went into the business. We are thrilled that the conversion rate from inquiry to booking will increase 4x for these tour planners. Corporate travel revenue for the third quarter of 2018 was RMB 267 million, up 31% year-on-year. The growth in corporate travel business was primarily driven by the expansion of our travel product coverage. Over 70% of our corporate travel users are making bookings, approving orders, and changing itineraries via Ctrip Biz mobile app.

Other business, including advertisement, financial services, and others, increased by 6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, reaching RMB 503 million. The deceleration of growth compared to the previous quarter mainly related to the high advertisement revenue base in the third quarter of 2017. Gross margin was 79% for the third quarter of 2018, compared to 84% in the same period in 2017 and 80% in the previous quarter. The year-over-year decrease in gross margin was mainly due to the decrease of per air ticket revenue due to operating adjustments. The sequential decrease in gross margin was mainly related to higher service costs as we upgraded service quality to be more customer-centric, and efforts in expanding our international service team, and increased the revenue mix from certain lower gross margin business that we consolidated in previous years.

Excluding share-based compensation charges, total non-GAAP operating expenses grew 13% year-on-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter of 2018. Product and development expenses and G&A expenses delivered continued operating leverage as we achieved a higher scale economy with a steady headcount. Sales and marketing efficiency continued to improve through product innovation for targeting customers and an improved cross-selling ratio. On average, the acquisition cost per user is only a very small fraction of their average annual revenue contribution to Ctrip, even as many of these new customers are coming from lower tier cities. Non-GAAP operating profit in the quarter was RMB 1.9 billion, compared to RMB 2 billion in the same period in 2017 and RMB 1.2 billion in the previous quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin for the third quarter was 20%, increasing from 16% in the previous quarter, mainly related to the operating efficiency improvement.

The company adopted the new financial instrument accounting standards from January 1st, 2018. It measures its available for sale equity securities at fair value with gain or losses recorded through the income statements. The impact of applying this new standard for the third quarter of 2018 resulted in a loss of approximately RMB 2.5 billion in net income, net of tax. Diluted loss per ADS were RMB 2.08 or $0.30 for the third quarter of 2018. Excluding share-based compensation charges and fair value changes of equity securities investment, non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS were RMB 2.88 or $0.42 for the third quarter of 2018. As of September 30, 2018, the balance of cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments was RMB 63.3 billion or $9.2 billion.

On October 15, 2018, the company has elected to pay back $476 million in cash in connection with its outstanding convertible senior notes due 2018, including interest, instead of a potential dilution of more than 1.5 million ordinary shares. Turning to the outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2018, the company expects the net revenue growth to continue at a year-on-year rate of approximately 15%-20%, which is calculated on the estimated net revenue of the fourth quarter of 2018 under the new revenue recognition standard, and the net revenue of the fourth quarter of 2017, which respectively adjusted. This forecast reflects Ctrip's current and preliminary view, which is subject to change. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operators, now please open the line for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the Q&A session. Please note this session is only open to sell- side analysts due to time restrictions. An analyst is only allowed to ask one question each time. If you have additional questions, please join back to the queue. Participants with question to pose, please press zero one on your telephone keypad and you will be placed in the queue. To cancel the queue, please press zero two. Once again, zero one on your telephone keypad now. Wai Yan Wong from HSBC, please go ahead.

Wai Yan Wong
Analyst, HSBC

Good morning, James, Jane, and Cindy. Thank you for taking my question. Hi, James. My first question is on the macro headwinds. Would you please kindly share with us how the travel industry, both domestic and outbound travels, have been affected by challenging macro conditions, and also Renminbi depreciation, which could negatively affect the outbound travels? Also, being an industry leader with growing outbound revenue contribution, how do you see we can weather through these macro headwinds? My second question is just a housekeeping question on the revenue guide of 4Q of 15%-20%. Any color on the growth by segment? Thank you. Those are my two questions. Thank you.

James Liang
Executive Chairman of the Board, Ctrip

Okay. First on the macro condition. I think despite the short-term fluctuation due to the sentiment and the trade friction, the long-term prospect of China's economy is still very positive. Actually, I wrote a few articles commenting on that. The argument is that China's per capita GDP is still lagged by a wide margin. Its potential measured by technology capability, measured by infrastructure or human capital level. China should have been much richer, given all these factors. For example, there's no reason China should be poorer than Greece and Argentina, which is almost double China's current per capita level. The reason Chinese are still much poorer than it should be is because China's low urbanization rate. China's urbanization rate currently is only 50%. If you compare to other countries with similar level of development, it should be 70%-80%.

In the next 10 or 20 years, China still have potential to further urbanize by 20%-30%. That's you're talking about 1%, 2%, 3%, 1%-2% a year. That itself, it's going to generate 3%-4% annual growth per year. The next 10, 20 years, China is still going to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world, and they will certainly benefit all sectors, especially travel. Particularly for travel, Chinese probably will be the most traveled compared to other countries, because as I said, the infrastructure in China is actually well ahead of its peers due to high-speed railways and because the amount of money continue going to the infrastructure, and because the location of China, you have a lot more interesting destinations around China and within China compared to the current leader in traveling, the U.S.

I think if you're talking about the percentage of GDP devoted to travel, China is probably one of the- I think on the high end. That's why I'm still very positive about the overall economic growth and the potential for travel. Ctrip certainly will leverage the scale of the Chinese travelers, they're the largest source of travelers, and not only to capture the Chinese traveling market, but also international travel market, including inbound market and markets in other countries. Ctrip is very strategically well-positioned to capitalize on all these factors. Thank you.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Yes. I will walk you through the revenue product for each segment. Our total net revenue is expected to grow at around 15%-20% year-on-year. For each line item, accommodation reservation is expected to grow at about 20%-25%, and transportation revenues will grow at about 10%-15% year-over-year. Packaged tour business will continue to have a healthy growth at around 25%-30%. Corporate travel business will continue to grow at around 20%-25%. Thank you.

Wai Yan Wong
Analyst, HSBC

Thank you. Thank you for management. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ronald Keung from Goldman Sachs, please go ahead.

Ronald Keung
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Hi, James, Jane, Cindy, and Victor, congratulations on a very solid set of results. My question after revenue will be on margins. Can you share with us sort of your margin outlook for the fourth quarter? Just really, if you could share a bit of the color for 2019, given your mid-term margin of 20%-30% non-GAAP target in one to two years. Just want to hear the latest thoughts on the margin outlook. Thank you.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thank you. In the fourth quarter, we expect our non-GAAP operating profit will be in the range of RMB 0-RMB 100 million, implying a non-GAAP operating margin at about 0%-1%. The steep margin drop quarter-over-quarter was mainly due to a couple of reasons. First, a worsened seasonality resulted from the new revenue accounting standards because the October holiday revenue previously recognized in the fourth quarter, but now largely in the third quarter already. The second reason is also because of the macro slowdown, which impacted our revenue growth year-over-year. Also, non-GAAP operating expenses will be relatively stable, similar to the year 2015 and 2016, as opposed to the fourth quarter of 2017, which we had an unfortunate PR incident. That's why we actually intentionally cut down our sales marketing spending about 15% quarter-over-quarter last year.

We will slightly increase our sales marketing expenses in the fourth quarter to capture more market share. In terms of our guidance for the 2019, maybe because with Ctrip app, customers book a trip and it's now becoming very easier. The booking window for our customer is now becoming very short. Plus, there also will be some short-term uncertainties on the macro next year. It's very, very difficult for us to provide a clear picture as to the absolute growth rates for next year at this moment. However, as James said, our strategy is very clear. We have confidence in the long-term growth of China's economy. Therefore, we will continuously make investments in our service and technologies, as well as cost-efficient sales marketing channels to further extend our competitive advantages and accelerate market share gaining, especially during the low tide. Thank you.

Ronald Keung
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Gregory Zhao, go ahead, sir.

Speaker 14

Hi, James, Jane, Cindy, and Victor. Thanks for taking my question. First one. Last night Priceline earnings, sorry, Booking's earnings conference call, the CEO mentioned he loves China and described how important China is for their growth. He also mentioned their stake in Ctrip, Meituan, and the recent investment in Didi. Have you seen any changes of your partnership with Booking or some changes or updates to the competitive landscape? My second question is, can you give us some updates of the hotel take rate, especially in the higher tier cities and the low-end hotels, respectively, and with the industry trend of the take rate? Thank you.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

Thanks for your questions. For the Priceline investment in Ctrip and our partnership with them, we always highly respect our partner. I think, in the past, working with the best in the industry, in the hotel business, really help our team to learn from the best. Our partnership with them always are very engaging, and we have very high respect for them. Going forward, I think our team will also use our strength, which is a one-stop shopping platform, and also the excellent customer services to further penetrate into the market we have. Regarding the take rate, I think it's holding very steady.

Speaker 14

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Ms. Alicia Yap from Citigroup, please go ahead.

Alicia Yap
Analyst, Citigroup

Hi, thank you. Good morning, James, Jane, Cindy, Victor. Thanks for taking my questions. I have some follow-up questions on the margins. Cindy, if you can clarify, that 79% gross margin, is that a new norm? Should we actually expect a little bit lower into the fourth quarter given your step up, kind of customer service quality? How should we think about this line on gross margin? Should we actually expect that to gradually rebound? I think, Jane, on your prepared remark on the margin when you talk about the trailing 12 months GMV, you also talk about the non-GAAP OP margins of 20%. Just wanted to clarify, are you referring to trailing 12 months Ctrip actually achieved that 20% margin? Can we also expect that in 2019 we could also achieve that? Thank you.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thank you, Alicia. Let me first clarify about the margin. Jane actually talking about the trailing 12 months GMV, which the growth rate is around 30%, to the level of RMB 690 billion. The margin, non-GAAP operating margin of 20% is only for the third quarter of 2018. In terms of the gross margin, the decrease of gross margin is mainly due to a couple of reasons. The first is our service cost in relation with our customer-centric initiatives to further enhance our service quality. The second is because we opened a few new international call center this year to serve the increasing customer demands from our international market for Trip.com and Skyscanner. The third reason is mainly because of the seasonality reason, given it's a peak season, especially for our packaged tour business, which has a comparatively lower gross margin.

Increasing revenue mix from certain packaged tour business that we consolidated in the previous year also dragged down some of our gross margins in the third quarter. In the future, we will continuously invest in service-related technology and gradually improve our operational efficiency in the service center for both our domestic markets as well as Trip.com's, especially after Trip.com can achieve certain level of scalability in the newly established call center. However, it takes some time. In the next couple quarters, we forecast our gross margin will be in the range of 75%-80%. Thank you.

Alicia Yap
Analyst, Citigroup

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Billy Leung from Haitong International, please go ahead.

Billy Leung
Analyst, Haitong International

Hi, management. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to go into detail of our operating leverage. We've done well into quarter three. Could we just go into detail of what we are doing to actually improve this operating margin? What kind of initiatives we're doing? That would be great. Thanks.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

We actually closely monitor our operational efficiency across all our expensive line items. For example, in the sales marketing channels, we have a very consistent strategy that we will look at the investment ROI for each of the channels. That's why makes Ctrip, when we acquire new users, our mobile customer acquisition cost actually is only a very small fraction of our customer's annual revenue contribution to Ctrip.

In the last couple quarters, a large portion of our newly acquired customers actually are coming from the lower tier cities. Our team will continue to work very hard to streamline our operation efficiency going forward. Thank you.

Billy Leung
Analyst, Haitong International

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ms. Natalie Wu from CICC, go ahead, please. Hello, Ms. Natalie Wu from CICC. Please go ahead with your question.

Natalie Wu
Analyst, CICC

Yes. Can you hear me?

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Yes. We can hear you, Natalie.

Natalie Wu
Analyst, CICC

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. Cindy, you just mentioned, for the fourth quarter, you expect a 10%-15% growth for the transportation business. I thought about your transportation, 15%-20% comes from ground ticketing, 20% from Skyscanner, and about 20% from international flight, excluding Skyscanner, all of the above growing at about 30% year-on-year. Does that mean you expect no growth for your domestic flight business in the fourth quarter? As I recall, the change for the bundling rule for your domestic flight business actually took place in the third quarter, there should be no comparison issue for the year-on-year growth for that in the fourth quarter, right? Just wondering what's happening here, and how should we see the business going forward. My second question is about the recent hotel cancellation rule.

I just saw you announce the cancellation rule last week. Wondering if there any impact on your P&L or the complete impact could be shifted to the hotel operators. Thank you.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thank you, Natalie. For the domestic air ticket, although we have some negative impact on the revenues per ticket because of the change of our operation rules, we actually still see a quite healthy volume growth in the last couple quarters. We already, for the domestic air ticket, our goal is to further strengthen our partnership with all the airlines. At the same time, we see domestic air ticketing now becoming more traffic source as opposed to our revenue contributor. For the second question regarding the cancellation rule. Yes, Ctrip, although there may be some macro uncertainties, what we observed is that Ctrip actually compare with the industry. Ctrip business is much more resilient than the industry average for a couple of reasons. First, as I said, we have a very consistent and efficient customer acquisition strategy.

The second is, thanks to the best service platform we built, Ctrip existing customer base actually is more toward the mid to high end. What we observed is our higher tier city users hold up spending much better than lower tier cities, especially during macro slowdown. Therefore, Ctrip will continuously make investment in our service and related technology to further strengthening our leadership and very strong branding to be the best service provider. That's the background that we promote the cancellation rules. It definitely will have, and already have some negative impact on our growth margin as you see our growth margin actually decreased a bit compare with last year. We think this initiative actually helping us to build a more solid foundation for our future growth. Thank you.

Natalie Wu
Analyst, CICC

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ms. Wendy Huang from Macquarie, please go ahead.

Wendy Huang
Analyst, Macquarie

Hi, management. A couple of years ago, you talked about your long-term, mid-long-term GMV growth and also revenue growth can be at 30%. Yet in the past two years, although, as mentioned earlier, the GMV growth remained healthy at a 30% rate, but the revenue growth has been persistently low, probably due to dilution of the take rate. Is it fair to think that actually your long-term revenue growth will be persistently low at 20% despite of the 30% GMV growth outlook? Secondly, how will you balance your spending amid the increasing, I would say, the macro uncertainty, as well as the need for the long-term growth sustainability? Thank you.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thank you, Wendy. In terms of the growth trajectory or mid to long-term growth, although we actually had the PR incident in fourth quarter last year and our domestic air ticket revenue adjustment in the first three quarters this year. Yes, our trailing 12 months GMV still grow at about 30% level. Our top priority from now to the year 2020 will still be more aggressively outpace industry growth and gaining market share, given the huge travel trend, both domestically and internationally. If the macro will not further deteriorate significantly, our original 2020 GMV target, we think is still achievable. As I said, although there might be some macro slowdown or uncertainties ahead of us, our strategy is clear. We see huge potential. We are optimistic on the future growth of China's economy.

That's why we will continuously to make investment in service technology as well as in the cost-efficient sales marketing channels to further extend our leadership here in travel market. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Mr. James Lee from Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

James Lee
Analyst, Mizuho Securities

Thanks for taking my questions. Jane, I was wondering maybe you can talk about competition with Meituan a little bit, maybe you can talk about from their perspective, their subsidy strategy in high-star hotels. Where are they now? Do you see a need to respond? Just curious, why or why not? Can you also talk about your own strategy in the low-star hotels? Where are you now versus Meituan, and do you need to step up the gas here? Thanks.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

Sure. I think we focus mainly on what our customer is looking for and develop our strategy really circling around our customer. What we have seen is on our platform, our customers age right now, 70% of our customers are below 35 years old, and the loyalty and stickiness have been increasing every year. Included in this portfolio, the customers that below 29 have been increasing from the original 30% to around 50% right now. That is a very healthy migration from a pure business customer to a more diversified customers. Our number and the results also reflected our focus. For Ctrip, our high and reliable service attract the business travelers very well, as well as the middle to high-end customers very well. Their contribution to our platform every year has increasing.

Right now, we have seen on average RMB 5,000 per year per person our spending, and that number has been increasing year-over-year. That's a reflection of our strength. Secondly, our marketing strategy is also not only focused on the stronghold for Ctrip in the first-tier cities and economic developed cities, we also look at the other third-tier, fourth-tier cities. On Ctrip brand, as we disclosed, the year-over-year growth for volume is more than 50% in these low-end hotels. For us, the high-end customers and first-tier cities, we really win because of our one-stop shopping platform and a strong customer service capability. For the fourth-tier, fifth-tier cities, we win really because we are very aggressive in penetrating into these new areas, and we have seen very good results from these areas. Thirdly, I think our product is also very innovative. We sold such a comprehensive offer of different products.

When we launch high-speed railway packages, these high-speed tickets enable us to reach to the cities which will take in the old days, maybe four, five hours to reach. Now within one hour, two hours, our customer will be able to reach. That gave us anchor for us to use our product as an anchor to effectively convert these customers onto Ctrip's platform. We also have seen great results for that. In summary, I think again, Ctrip's strength is always technology investment, one-stop-shop platform, product innovation, and a strong customer service reliability. These items year in, year out represent Ctrip's strength, and we'll compete by utilizing these strengths. Thank you.

James Lee
Analyst, Mizuho Securities

Just a quick follow-up question, Jane. Thanks for your answer. It sounds like you don't need to change your subsidy strategy or discounting strategy very meaningfully for high star hotels because you have a strong hold in that market, and a low star hotels because you have a strong value proposition there. Is that a fair assumption? Also secondly, maybe help us understand how your call center asset are actually very important competitive advantage in high star hotels. Thanks.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

Yeah. I think our team is very agile. We monitor the market very carefully, but we always compete on our strengths, which is we talked about the product offering, one-stop shop, penetrate into the low market through our product innovation. I think year in, year out everything. We start our business, there were lots of competitors, and using price competition can win market share but cannot win in the long term. I think, again, we will win the market and customer loyalty based on our strengths of customer service, technology, investment, product innovation and service.

James Lee
Analyst, Mizuho Securities

Great. Thanks so much.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Ms. Tian Hou from T.H. Capital, please go ahead.

Tian Hou
Analyst, T.H. Capital

Good morning, James and Jane, Cindy and Victor. My question is related to the accessibility of your services. Like James said, China urbanization still has long way to go and also we have a lot of population to grow, second baby, third baby. Ctrip services actually mainly are in the major cities. Like we all know, when we go to lower tier cities, you ask people what is the Ctrip, they may say in Chinese it's the mall of the shoes. I wonder how Ctrip is going to make your services accessible by those lower tier cities. You have been doing some efforts in that front. I wonder if you can give us some elaboration or introduction about your past efforts and the results, as well as your future steps to increase your access and ability towards the existing population and the future growing population. Thank you.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thank you, Tian. In the lower end of the market, given online penetration is still quite low, at the current stage yes, Ctrip's top priority in this segment will be more aggressively gaining market share. Even in the short term, it might be at the expense of taking lower take rate. As Jane explained, Ctrip, actually one of the competitive advantage for us now is to already build a travel super app in the China market. We have the most comprehensive product offerings, not only to cover the mid to high end of the market, but also we have ferry ticket, bus ticket, all kind of product that fits perfectly for those targeted lower end of the customer need.

Ctrip app now, according to our cohort data, we have been able to also increase our average travel spending for each year by multiple folds, resulting in our repeating customer accounts for more than 80% of the total transactions. This one-stop shopping center model, the super app model, also significantly help us in terms of user acquisitions. Our mobile customer acquisition cost is only a very, very small fraction of our average annual commission we earned per user, even though most of new users actually already coming from the lower-tier city, thanks to the very comprehensive product offerings that fits their demand. Yeah, Jane?

James Liang
Executive Chairman of the Board, Ctrip

Let me just add one more thing. I think for lower-tier cities, train high-speed railway will be the most important transportation tool, and Ctrip is very well positioned to leverage strength in train products. The recently launched high-speed rail tour product. As you know, Ctrip has the highest market share and fastest still, very fast growth high-speed train and newly launched high-speed train tour product.

Tian Hou
Analyst, T.H. Capital

Thank you. Thank you. Mm-hmm. Okay, go on.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

In summary, by adding all travel-related products and services into our super travel app, we will make sure that once a customer has the real travel demand, they will definitely find either Ctrip or Qunar will be their first choice. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. I will now hand the session back to Victor Tseng for closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Victor Tseng
Chief Communications Officer, Ctrip

Thanks to everyone for joining us today. You can find a transcript and webcast of today's call on ir.ctrip.com. We look forward to speaking with you on the fourth quarter 2018 earnings call. Thank you and have a good day.

Cindy Wang
CFO, Ctrip

Thank you.

Jane Sun
CEO, Ctrip

Thank you.

James Liang
Executive Chairman of the Board, Ctrip

Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participation. You may now disconnect. Thank you.