Alibaba Group Holding Limited (HKG:9988)
Hong Kong flag Hong Kong · Delayed Price · Currency is HKD
109.80
-5.00 (-4.36%)
Sep 23, 2026, 4:08 PM HKT
← View all transcripts

Investor Day 2020 Part 1

Sep 30, 2020

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining me, our financial and investment discussion. I will segment it in four parts. As usual, I will start off with our financial review for the last 12 months ended June. Then I'll talk about our value proposition to consumers and merchants. I would also like to share with you on how we continuously innovate and invest to grow our business, and then how to value our businesses. In the past 12 months, our consumer base has seen robust growth. We added 140 million consumers globally and reached 1 billion milestone for our AAC annual active consumers. In China market, we have over 800 million of AAC, and there's another 200 million in the overseas markets. For the financial highlights in the past 12 months, our total revenue has witnessed strong growth of 34% year-on-year and reached RMB 550 billion.

Our core commerce business contributed RMB 470 billion with 33% year-on-year growth. If you look at many new businesses that we have been investing into, they all show strong growth. New Retail, Alibaba Cloud, and Cainiao. If you look at New Retail, the growth rate is over 100% and revenue already reached RMB 100 billion in 12 months. Alibaba Cloud showing 60% year-on-year growth, and then Cainiao showing over 50% year-on-year growth. We also see healthy profit growth for the group, as the total adjusted EBITDA grew 29% year-over-year to almost RMB 150 billion. Our free cash flow grew 35% year-over-year to over RMB 140 billion. That is $20 billion. If you think about it's a very strong operating cash flow that could support our reinvestment back to our business for longer term growth.

If you compare against our global technology peers, Alibaba's robust growth in both revenue and profit exceeded all of our global peer companies. In the case of Facebook, please note that they have a special item in the prior period. If taking that out, their net profit grew 7% year-on-year. Next, I would like to dedicate a session to talk about our value proposition to consumers and merchants. This is our core value, and this is how we make it easy to do business anywhere and how we could achieve sustainable growth. Alibaba is an important driver of China consumption. Our digital economy GMV reached 7.3 trillion RMB, which is over $1 trillion. If you look at the net adds, it's over 900 billion RMB in 12 months' time. Back in 2015, we accounted for about 10% of this total China consumption.

As China consumption continues to grow, we have now expanded to accounted for 18% of the total pie. Let's take a look at the demographic of China, Chinese consumers. China has 1.4 billion population, and we estimated there is about 1.2 billion total addressable consumer base. This number is taking out people above 80 years old and under 10. Our AAC in China retail marketplace is 742 million. If you separate it into what we call the developed areas and less developed areas, our penetration for developed areas is about 90%, very high, and 45%, less than 50%, in the less developed areas, which means there is still big potential for us to further penetrate. The average ARPU for our annual active consumers on the platform is RMB 9,000, which is around $1,300 US.

Let's take a further look at the quality of these consumers. If we separate it into two big groups, one is the ARPU spending is over RMB 7,000 per annum. For this group, we have 190 million AACs. You may ask why 7,000? There is a reason. There is a recent survey that being quoted by many people, company, including experts. It says that there are about 230 million consumers who has annual income of about RMB 36,000. If you take a look at this number and times the 20% online penetration, it gives you around RMB 7,000. This is the high spending group. For this part of the consumers on our platform, their retention rate is as high as 98%. Of course, the blended ARPU, the spending level is much higher than that RMB 7,000.

It tells you that once people come to our platform, they will stay. Right-hand side, you will see 550 million of consumers whose spending level is less than RMB 7,000. If we further divided them into two groups, for the group that spent less than RMB 2,000 per annum, this is most likely the year one, year two consumers. Their retention on our platform is about 67%. For the group whose annual spending is between RMB 2,000-RMB 7,000, their retention rate is 96%, also very high. Okay. Longer consumers stay with us, more spending they will make, and higher stickiness and engagement they have shown. For year one consumers whose average spending level is RMB 2,500, if you look at the year five, their spending would go up to RMB 10,000.

This is not only a case for the past year, but also for the past years. They made 30 orders in year one, but 93 orders in year five. They've purchased seven categories, and then in year five, this number of categories go up to 19. There is a uniqueness about Alibaba digital economy. There are many businesses within this ecosystem so that longer the people stay, more activities they have conducted. You've seen synergy actually could increase our consumer engagement. The left-hand chart shows that for consumers who use one of our services, one of our platforms, they averagely spend 10 days in a month on our platform. For the consumers who use five of our services, or more than five, Youku, Ele.me, and AutoNavi, et cetera, they spend 27 days a month on our platform. It's very sticky.

When you look at our 88VIP members, this is our loyalty program for the high-end consumer. These people spend nine times more than the overall users, and they visited three times more categories than overall users. Let's take a look at our value creation for merchants. Merchants are customers who pays us directly. For those of you who attended our 2016 Investor Day, you might still remember that this merchant P&L I illustrated when I talk about our value creation for merchants. Typically, every RMB 100 revenue these merchants generated, they spent around RMB 55 in the cost of sales, including cost of inventory, logistics, and they spent another RMB 20 in the distribution cost, and RMB 10 in the sales and marketing expenses. They also have spendings in R&D, customer service, and financial services.

By the end of the day, they have around RMB 4 left as their net profit, which means approximately 4% of a margin. If you look at the list of the icon in the middle of this slide, all of these are products and services our Alibaba Group provided to these merchants to help them operate at a higher efficiency, at a higher productivity. Give you an example, like Cainiao Logistics. It provides digital logistics infrastructures to help these merchants to provide better consumer experience, deliver faster. Taobao and Tmall, they're not only providing distribution value to our merchants to help them reach GMV, but they're also providing services to help them acquire new consumers, retain these consumers, help their brand building, and help their new product launching.

There are a whole set of the value at the sales and marketing and customer service that we provided to the merchants. We also provide IT infrastructures to these merchants. For example, Alibaba Cloud offered differentiated solutions to these customers across all of these industries. Our DingTalk also enhanced the office communication and collaborations. You can tell that GMV is not our TAM. Merchants' costs and expenditures, these are our TAM. We aim to enable these merchants to operate at a higher efficiency, and when they realize and recognize this value we provided to them, they will pay us and our revenue will grow. As of now, we have around 3.9 million of paying merchants in our China retail marketplaces, and over 3 million paying enterprises on Alibaba Cloud. Our digital economy platforms has provided multi services to more than 60% of the companies listed in A-share market in China.

Through Alibaba Business Operating System, which we call ABOS, we provide our merchants with so many various services and products to enable them to operate better. It's not only the distribution costs, but also sales marketing, but also help them to do this branding and product launching, product development, channel management, et cetera. We, at the same time, through Ant Group, provide financial service and provide a technology-related Alibaba Cloud service, and also logistics service by Cainiao. All of these help the merchants, and then they could continue sales growth, and then accordingly, they will pay us, and our revenue will also grow. Back in 2014 IPO roadshow, one of the most asked question is about our take rate. You asked us about how much our take rate can further grow. At that time, by the way, we had 2.5% of overall take rate.

You asked whether we could go up to 4%, 5%. Okay. As of June 2017, our take rate went up to 3.3%. As of June quarter this year, the overall take rate is 4.5%. Take rate went up. It's not because we charge higher fee rate. It's because we provide broader value to our merchants. If you look at the 4.5% take rate, actually there are two parts. The 4% coming from the CMR and the commission. This is our traditional revenue sources. 0.5% coming from Cainiao Logistics Services and also local services. Okay, this increased rate represents the incremental value. Going forward, we're going to continue to broaden the value provision to our merchants. Companies in the market talk about GMV growth.

We believe that revenue and profit growth tells you more about the value creation, about how much value the company provided to its customers. I want to talk about how our revenue composition has evolved. Our overall business has become more diversified, which provides multi-engine driver for revenue growth. In 2015, CMR and commission as a percentage of total revenue was 77%. Very significant. When you look at the last 12 months, the CMR plus commission contributed less than 50% our total revenue to 47%. Besides 47% revenue contribution from CMR and the commission, we have evolved to add other businesses, such as new retail and direct sales, now accounting for 18% of total revenue. Cainiao, 5%. Local consumer services, 5%. Cloud has grown to 8% of total revenue.

Even within customer management revenue, we have evolved and launched new formats, which if you look at the number, it contributes around 20% of CMR revenue now. In five years ago, it was zero. Here we listed some of these new formats, such as Super Recommendation. This is which is the recommendation feed ad. This is a product promotion which helps brands to attract new consumers. Well, it is monetized based on the GMV transacted. We also have Taobao Live, Taobao Zhibo. You're familiar with this. This is the largest e-commerce live streaming platform in China. Several others like Juhuasuan subsidy program and also Tmall Farm. Historically, we have presented our financials by separating marketing and distribution aspects of our revenue stream between CMR and commission.

Increasingly, we see merchants treating the fees they pay us as something related to holistic packages and services that we provided to them, not only increase the sell-through, but also help them to acquire and retain users, consumers, which results in more sales in the future. Therefore, you can see the changes. We also notice there are blurred lines to draw between the CMR and commission. For example, like a [Non-English content] right? It's a GMV-based such as commission revenue type. However, its function is to acquire new consumers for the brands. Therefore, we have made a decision that instead of thinking about marketing and distribution separately, we will not make an artificial distinction between the CMR and the commission.

Going forward, our reporting basis, we will fold the commission revenue stream into customer management revenue, because commissions generated today are the results of our platform's effective customer management services provided yesterday. We believe the reason why we can have multi-engine growth is because we continuously innovate and invest for the future. While other companies work for next quarters, today, we work for the next three to five years and setting 10 years ago, 15 years ago. We have the ability to innovate continuously and incubate the growth organically. This is because as a large-scale platform company and with the clear mission, vision, and value, we're able to recruit best talent who's attracted to solve the world-class challenges through solving these technology and business problems for our customers. You should be very familiar with this slide that we show every quarter in our earnings announcement.

In the last 12 months, we have seen losses narrowing in our developing businesses. If you look at adjusted EBITDA growth, which is 29% year-over-year, that represents both the growth from our core business and also the narrowing of our losses in the developing businesses. I want to highlight some of the progress of these businesses that we nurtured over the years. Hema has 65% of GMV generated online in June, and its same-store sales growth reached 32% for June quarter. Cainiao, its package level from Guoguo and Cainiao Post grew 110% in the past 12 months. Our overseas business, Lazada, has 80 million AACs and over 100% order growth. We have also had 290 million annual active consumers of our local services and 2.5 million merchants on Ele.me and Koubei.

For AliCloud, over 3 million paying enterprises are using our services, driving robust AliCloud revenue growth of 60% for the 12 months ended June. Our Youku witnessed narrowing losses in the last 12 months and also the member growth. To put these new businesses into historical context, you can see that over the past 20 years, we have always innovated and developed new businesses organically as the primary driver of revenue growth. More than 20 years ago, we set up our B2B business, which is a wholesale business. We start from Alibaba.com and then went C2C, and later on, we have established this Taobao marketplace, which becomes the largest shopping mall in the whole world. Every day, there are more than 300 million people coming to Taobao app. Alipay was born after this Taobao because of the demands for the trust and payment services.

It's already growing to the biggest tech fin company as Ant. You've seen Cloud, right? This is the number one cloud service provider in Asia. We have our B2C e-commerce export marketplace, AliExpress, and we have the number one new retail business, Hema. While on the other hand, our core marketplaces business also keeps innovating and evolving to maintain leadership in the e-commerce area. Our products and services are often followed and copied by other companies, there is one thing hard to be copied or cannot be copied. This is the innovation in our DNA. In the past few years, we have invested over RMB 100 billion each year in technology, research and development. As I laid out in this slide, we have launched so many new businesses and services along these years.

Taobao, Tmall, Alimama, Cainiao, Hema, Ling Shou Tong, Fliggy, and so many of them. We made each one of them. From the first one to number one. This is all because we have always set the first priority as helping merchants and our customers to solve their problems and to operate at higher efficiency through our technology and solutions. This slide shows that we see the development of our business in three phases: seed, traction, and profitability. We have multiple businesses that in each of these development stages. Our core marketplace businesses like Taobao, Tmall, and our wholesale business, they are highly profitable, and they generate strong cash flow, which could enable us to reinvest this profit to incubate the new businesses that have tens of millions or hundreds of millions of users, such as new retail, local services, import, international businesses. They have gained traction.

This really positioned them well for the future profitability and cash flow. Underneath these tree trunks and grass stems, their roots are being nurtured by the soil, enriched by our technology and consumer insights. This is how our business can continue to prosper. Today, we want to make an important announcement about two of our important businesses that seeing great traction and are about to be graduated to a profitability phase. Here it is. We expect AliCloud to turn profitable within fiscal 2021. The Cainiao is expected to generate positive operating cash flow in fiscal 2021. On top of investing in our organic business growth, we also leverage M&A and targeted strategic important investment areas and companies. Here is our rationale. We separate them into three buckets.

First, for the core strategic business, like Ant, Cainiao, and Alibaba Health, we made additional investment in the past year to further increase our equity interest in these companies. This not only reflects their strategically important position within our ecosystem, but also shows our strong confidence in this business. The second bucket, we made investment to strengthen our core businesses. For example, we have user acquisition, we have user experience enhancement, like we acquire Kaola to further enhance our leading position in the cross-border e-commerce business. We invested in express delivery services to enhance the consumer experience in logistic areas. We have put emphasizes on the synergy between our businesses and these invested companies, which, when we make such investment, later on, we're going to follow up to generate more value, make it one plus one more than 10 effect.

The third bucket, we are also making investment in these new areas, which could become significant in our long-term development. We make investment in EV, like Xpeng, Qiche, we make investment in real estate sector, we also invested in NetEase Music. Our investment has generated significant synergy. For example, we invested in Sun Art, the largest hypermarket in China. It's a chain hypermarket business. We helped Sun Art to digitize their business and operations. We bring in online traffic and synchronize this online/offline inventory management capability and added to their last-mile fulfillment capability. Last quarter, Sun Art's online business contributed approximately 15% of total sales, which is a big leap from the 6.5% last year. During last year's Investor Day, we shared that the Easyhome offline furniture malls have been connected to our digital operations systems, together, we enabled consumers to have an O2O shopping experience.

This year, we increased our cooperation with them and incubated new business called Tangping, which is a platform providing professional tools and designers and merchants to ensure better user experience, better consumer experience. Under the cooperation, we plan to integrate the value, going end to end, from design to merchant sales, realizing the vision of a one-stop shopping destination in this category. Alog and [Beelink] are two leading e-commerce warehousing and supply chain providers. Through acquisition and integration with Cainiao, we're able to improve operating efficiency to reduce Tmall Supermarket warehouse costs by 10%. Xpeng is a newly listed EV company, and they are very closely working with our team. This Juhuasuan recent promotions helped Xpeng efficiently attract over 6,000 orders within five days time from online. Finally, let's take a look at the valuation.

Since we report our financials in four segments, let's take a look at each segment one by one. Let's dig deeper into our core commerce businesses. We have so many businesses within this core commerce. In the last 12 months, our marketplace-based platform generated $29 billion of adjusted EBITDA. The marketplace-based business is our core, providing profitability and cash flow. We also list out our peer groups and companies' multiples and valuation method. Let's pick the lowest multiples used on peers. If we apply 25 times multiple on the suggested EBITDA, the equity value of our China retail core business alone would be $725 billion, which approaches the current BABA market cap. Please note that this valuation is before we assign any value to our promising new businesses within this core commerce segment, such as Freshippo, local services, Lazada, Tmall Global, Cainiao Logistics.

If you look at these new businesses, each of them occupied a leading position in their sector. Freshippo is the leading FMCG retailer in China. It is more efficient and grows faster than traditional FMCG retailers with much higher efficiency measured by sales per square meter per annum. The same-store sales growth has multiple times than the other offline businesses. Cainiao is the leading digital logistics service provider. They're handling package volume at almost two times of the total U.S. country's volumes. It also has the largest last-mile delivery network and the largest crowdsourcing package delivery platform in China. Tmall Global is the number one in cross-border e-commerce market and is the biggest import platform in whole China, including online, offline, and they're still growing at more than 40% year-on-year in GMV.

Lazada is positioned well in Southeast Asia e-commerce market with more than 80 million AACs and more than 100 million MAUs. At the same time, it doubled its order from prior year. It has continued showing strong growth in the past few quarters. The point I want to make here is that the market is reflecting only the value of our core commerce businesses and not yet give any credit to any of our other businesses within the core. If you want to get a sense of the valuation of new businesses with this core commerce segment, at the bottom of the slide, we have laid out some of these peer companies with market valuations and map to these new businesses. Now, coming back to a full view of all of the business segments, let's look at the cloud computing.

Based on the last quarter of revenue of $1.7 billion, this business is growing nearly 60% year-on-year and running at an annual revenue run rate of $7 billion, assuming no growth at all in the subsequent quarters. What is our cloud computing business worth? It seems that the market has basically assigned a very little value to our cloud business. Next, the market is also assigning very little value to our stake in Ant Group. Well, since many of you want to invest in Ant and you know the valuation, and the market will soon tell the valuation. Now, take a look at our cash and strategic investments. As of June 30th, we had $36 billion in net cash and $45 billion in the strategic investment. These are measured by the fair market value.

Without Ant, based on these public traded values, you've seen $45 billion in these investee portfolios. To summarize, a sum-of-the-part approach to value our company suggests that the market is not assigning much value to many parts of our business. From the new businesses in the core to cloud computing to our stake in Ant to our value in the investee companies. We believe that these businesses will produce strong growth drivers for our tomorrow's growth. I do hope the above discussion is helpful for you to think about our overall business. I would like to end today's presentation by reiterating our conviction in our ability to innovate, investment for the future, and deliver robust growth for our shareholders. This is all from me today. Thank you very much.